The huge Tuesday main slate features 11 games with a ton of good pitching options and several premium spots for stacking, including more action at Coors Field and the Dodgers and Braves in gettable situations. With a huge slate to get through we are skipping right to it and presenting details in hurry-up mode. Catch the show on YouTube starting sometime between 3:00 and 4:00 ET for more.
Don’t miss our Hitter Projections, including custom Home Run ratings for each player, and Pitcher Projections for more on the top opportunities today.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Notes – 4/9/24
Miami Marlins (+171/3.41) @ New York Yankees (-187/4.68)
- Carlos Rodon projects well for the $7,700/$7,900 on this slate. The lefty has made two moderately successful starts, working 4.1 innings while striking out four Astros and allowing only one earned run then getting through 5.1 while allowing two solo home runs and seven hits but no more damage, striking out three, and walking two against Arizona. Rodon gets a better matchup against the Marlins, the former ace has a strong chance to step forward for the season and he looks appealing at these prices.
- Miami’s lineup features options from 1-7 in the projected form. Luis Arraez is a premium slap-hitter and correlated scoring machine who connects well with Bryan De La Cruz, who has a home run on the board early in the season but also an 81 WRC+, Josh Bell who also has a homer but a 78 WRC+ in early returns, and Jake Burger, the team’s best power bat. Burger has a pair of home runs, as does star Jazz Chisholm Jr. who is the top overall talent on this squad. Burger and Chicholm are easy to afford at $3,600/$4,200 and $3,300/$5,100. Tim Anderson and Avisail Garcia are two veterans who hit from the right side late in the lineup, Anderson is off to a respectable start after a disastrous 2023 and Garcia has a knack for hitting lefties throughout his career. The Marlins are a low-priority stack that could succeed for a bit of value in the hitter-friendly park.
- The Yankees will be facing AJ Puk who has ben a mess over his first two outings. Puk is in the rotation after pitching primarily in relief for the past few seasons. Over 56.2 innings last year he had a 32.2% strikeout rate in that role but he is at just 17.1% over his first two starts, which have lasted a total of 6.0 innings. Puk has a 9.00 ERA and 7.35 xFIP with a 25.7% walk rate and a ghastly 2.83 WHIP to start the season in the tiny sample. This game is not likely to help his upside, Puk is not looking like a good option at $6,000/$6,700.
- The Yankees have started the season strong, their offense is performing as expected and the team is back to their routine of chasing starters by seeing as many pitches as possible. Gleyber Torres is a top-end leadoff option and he is cheap for the talent and upside at $3,100/$4,500. Even as a correlation play in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge that price is too low, Torres has talent of his own to bring to the table. Soto and Judge are any-given-slate superstars, they are worth the high salaries. Giancarlo Stanton has three home runs to lead the team in early returns, his .306 ISO is dynamite and he has been hitting the ball very hard over 37 plate appearances. Anthony Rizzo is a tremendous hitter with left-handed power who benefits from Yankee Stadium in this matchup, even against a fellow lefty Rizzo has appeal at $2,700/$4,100. Anthony Volpe has started his season in a big way, he has a .417/.488/.677 triple-slash with just a 21.4% strikeout rate and an 11.9% walk rate and looks like a different hitter. Alex Verdugo is a capable lefty for a cheap price late in the lineup, Jose Trevino is mostly here for his work behind the plate, Austin Wells is the more appealing Yankees catcher for offense, and Jon Berti is the better option than Oswaldo Cabrera, Berti led the National League in stolen bases two years ago and is a multi-positional value on both sites.
Play: Yankees bats/stacks, Carlos Rodon
Seattle Mariners (+103/3.97) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-112/4.13)
- Righty Chris Bassitt worked 5.0 innings and struck out six Rays but gave up four earned runs on a homer and six total hits in his first start then managed just 4.1 with three strikeouts, three walks, a home run, and four earned runs allowed on nine total hits against the Astros. Bassitt can be good, particularly when it comes to depth, but his 7.71 ERA and 5.02 xFIP over two starts come with just an 18.8% strikeout rate and a 10.4% walk rate with premium contact allowed but against a free-swinging Mariners squad he could find a few additional strikeouts and he projects OK for the money.
- Seattle has not looked the part of a premium team over the first 12 days of the season. The Mariners have a collective WRC+ of just 86 for the projected starting lineup. Star Julio Rodriguez is carrying a 38 WRC+ over 46 plate appearances, he is slashing .186/.239/.209 with a .023 ISO in another slow start. The rest of this lineup has not been much better. JP Crawford is getting on base at a .213 clip after a .380 last season, Jorge Polanco has a home run and nothing else on the board, Mitch Haniger is the only player who has been above average for run creation at 122, and the catcher tandem of Mitch Garver and Cal Raleigh have totaled one home run in 63 combined plate appearances and do not fit together on DraftKings. Ty France, Dominic Canzone, and Josh Rojas do not have much appeal late in the lineup.
- Starter George Kirby is very much in the Mariners’ mold of a good-not-great strikeout rate and a low walk rate. The righty has made two starts this season, pitching 10.1 innings to a 5.23 ERA with a 4.46 xFIP and a 21.3% strikeout rate against a 4.3% walk rate. Over 190.2 innings in 2023, Kirby had a 22.7% strikeout rate and a microscopic 2.5% walk rate. For $9,700/$9,400 the righty will need to be on his game against the Blue Jays who have been up and down to start the season. Kirby projects fifth overall on the board in a tightly packed group of similar starters
- Top-heavy Toronto ranks far down the board tonight, the team is truly three or four players deep with only minor contributions expected from the bottom half of the lineup on any given slate. George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette are the team stars atop the lineup and they are all discounted for their struggling starts to the season. Springer costs $3,100/$4,400, Guerrero is at $3,200/$4,800, and Bichette has dropped all the way to $2,900/$4,600. There is too much talent in the three-man group to leave them entirely on the shelf at those prices, even against Kirby. The issue is the remaining hitters behind them. Veteran Justin Turner has the team’s best WRC+ to this point at 178 with a .290/.410/.548 triple-slash, he is an easy next man at third base. Cavan Biggio, Alejandro Kirk, and Daulton Varsho are all flawed hitters from the lower-mid-range while Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kevin Kiermaier are defense-first players with very little fantasy appeal. The stack is clear from 1-4 with potential bolt-on parts from 5-7.
Play: George Kirby, Chris Bassitt value shares, only minor shares of either stack if any
New York Mets (+169/4.07) @ Atlanta Braves (-186/5.56)
- Righty Reynaldo Lopez is another converted reliever working in a starting role this season. Lopez worked a solid six innings in his first outing of the season, striking out five White Sox and allowing only one earned run on four hits while walking two. Lopez has not pitched since that outing on April 2nd and he returns against a tougher opponent in the Mets, he projects at playable levels for the money on both sites but the righty could be cheaper across the board than his $7,200/$8,000.
- Two New York hitters are over the magic number for home run power against Lopez tonight, Pete Alonso sits at 12.91 and Francisco Alvarez lands at 10.17, with Francisco Lindor not far off the pace at 8.57. The Mets are pulling in interesting projections against Lopez, they rank higher up the stacks board than one might expect at a glance and their lineup is perhaps better than its reputation for MLB DFS purposes. Brandon Nimmo is a terrific leadoff option coming off a big Monday night. Nimmo has a pair of home runs and a stolen base with a 136 WRC+ despite the front-end of his .212/.395/.424 triple-slash. Lindor has a home run on the board but has been awful to start the season with a 22 WRC+ and a .075/.208/.175 triple-slash, he will be fine and he is discounted to $3,100/$5,000 for the scuffles. Alonso has two home runs but only a 51 WRC+ early in the year, he is another player who will come roaring to life soon enough. Alvarez has one long ball and has been 19% better than average for run creation to this point, he hits ahead of the playable tandem of Brett Baty and Starling Marte. Baty adds left-handed pop for just $2,600/$3,100, he has a home run and a 128 WRC+ to start the year and is slashing .333/.385/.417 over his first 39 opportunities. Tyrone Taylor has plenty of skill and has seen 30 plate appearances with the Mets, with regular time he could turn into an interesting 15-15 type of player in the outfield. Jeff McNeil and Harrison Bader are lower-end options late in the lineup.
- Right-handed veteran Adrian Houser is on the mound for the Mets in a bad spot against the fantastic Braves lineup. Atlanta is once again one of the top-ranked teams of the day and their 5.55-run implied total trails only Coors Field. Houser has been good at limiting home runs over the past few seasons, he had a 2.70% home run rate on 7.1% barrels and 11.2 degrees of launch in 21 starts last year and a 1.76% home run rate on 5.6% barrels and 10.3 degrees of launch in 2022. This is having a bit of an impact on the typically robust Braves home run marks in our model but Atlanta still looks like the strongly favored side of this matchup and Houser’s limited strikeout potential is a good tiebreaker if necessary, he does not project for a good day at $7,100/$7,500.
- The Braves are playable from 1-9 on essentially any slate with minimal changes to the daily lineup. The top five of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna play every day, the first four all have 42 plate appearances and Ozuna has 41 so far this season. The group has combined for 12 home runs, with Ozuna leading the way with five and superstar Acuna trailing with zero and a 77 WRC+. The Braves are expensive as a rule but Ozuna is far too affordable on DraftKings at $4,600. The bottom of the lineup has tremendous quality as well, one could stack from Ozuna down and come away with a good lineup. Michael Harris II is a multi-category star with power and speed, and Orlando Arcia is a cheap shortstop who hit 17 home runs last year and is off to a .417/.447/.556 start over 38 plate appearances this season, and Travis d’Arnaud is a quality backup catcher with right-handed power. Lefty outfielder Jarred Kelenic is slashing .500/.560/.636 over 25 plate appearances in a nice start to an expected bounceback (bounce for the first time?) season.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Mets bats/stacks
Houston Astros (-126/4.52) @ Kansas City Royals (+116/4.08)
- Lefty Cole Ragans is in a tester spot against the elite Astros who excel against southpaws. Ragans has been on his game to start the season, posting a 33.3% strikeout rate with a 1.46 ERA and 2.84 xFIP over two starts and 12.1 innings after coming through the offseason with an extremely high level of buzz. Ragans is pitching like an ace and he has been since midway through last season. The lefty has been good at checking home run power and keeping the ball down on top of the strikeout potential, his only hiccup is a few too many walks but he has been excellent and he projects for a fair performance against Houston. Ragans is a somewhat awkward but playable fit for $9,900 on FanDuel, his $8,200 DraftKings salary seems like a good bargain.
- Houston remains playable against the high-end lefty. Jose Altuve has a 204 WRC+ with three home runs over 49 plate appearances to start his season, he remains one of the best second basemen in the game. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are an outrageously talented pair who lose nothing against same-handed pitching. Alvarez has four home runs and a 184 WRC+ and Tucker has hit two homers and stolen a base while creating runs 37% better than average. Alex Bregman is off to a slow start but has a sturdy right-handed bat and comes cheap at third base for his ceiling. Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick are underpriced quality options later in the lineup, while the bottom third features a surging Jeremy Pena, a fading Jose Abreu, and Jake Meyers.
- The Royals have a frisky lineup this season, they are in an interesting spot against Cristian Javier whose bounceback has not gotten underway to this point. Javier has worked 11.0 innings in two starts, striking out just 20.9% and walking 14% but he has yet to allow an earned run, has not given up any barrels for the season, and has limited hard hits to 17.9% with an average of 85.7 mph of exit velocity. If the righty can find his formerly elite strikeout form he is a great option for $8,300 on DraftKings but he projects only in the middle of the board in this matchup and state, making him more difficult to reach for $9,300 on FanDuel.
- Maikel Garcia has created runs 27% better than average over his 44 plate appearances in a meaningless sample. Garcia’s good start has been bolstered by three home runs, his .244/.273/.561 triple-slash is revealing about his spot atop the lineup but his .323 on-base percentage gives some hope to better correlated scoring going forward. Garcia has raw skills for the cheap pricing ahead of Bobby Witt Jr, the team’s star shortstop, and Vinnie Pasquantino who has an interesting bat from the left side for $2,600/$4,200 at first base. Pasquantino puts the ball in play regularly, he struck out at an 11.9% clip last year and is at 13.5% over 37 plate appearances to start this season. Salvador Perez is off to a good start with a 147 WRC+ and a pair of home runs, MJ Melendez is hitting everything with authority out of the gate this year, the slugging lefty has three home runs and a .419 ISO over 34 opportunities. Nelson Velazquez has two home runs with a .296 ISO and 173 WRC+, his premium power has appeal at $2,800/$3,600 when stacking this team. Adam Frazier and Kyle Isbel are less appealing than right-handed home run bat Hunter Renfroe in general, but Renfroe has not started this season well after dropping to only 20 home runs last season.
Play: Four corners are open on this one, Cole Ragans is the best raw option but the Astros are playable against him at what should be low ownership, Javier can be deployed with the hopes of additional strikeout upside, but the Royals can answer back with a bit of power this year.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-183/4.95) @ Minnesota Twins (+167/3.65)
- Twins righty Louie Varland has one start in the books for 2024. Varland faced the Brewers in Milwaukee, allowing three earned runs on six hits, including a home run, while walking two and striking out four over just 4.0 innings. Varland looks overmatched in this spot against the Dodgers, Los Angeles checks in with a 4.95-run implied total that could easily crest above five as the day continues. Varland made 10 starts and worked 68.0 total innings last season, striking out 25.1% with a 4.63 ERA and 3.81 xFIP but also a 5.65% home run rate on 91 mph of exit velocity and a 10.8% barrel rate.
- The Dodgers are playable from 1-9 today. Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman cost $6,000 on average on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel, they are a very expensive stack but they are the best three-man group in baseball. Will Smith is affordable at $4,700 where catchers are required, he has a 153 WRC+ to start the season. Max Muncy has a home run from the left side in his first 51 opportunities and Teoscar Hernandez has already hit four from the right side. The duo is a cheap way to access Dodgers stacks at $3,300/$4,500 and $3,500/$4,800. Gavin Lux, James Outman, and Taylor Trammell are a good left-handed trio to throw at Varland for cheap prices, they provide a very solid mix of power and speed in each spot for an average of just $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel.
- Tyler Glasnow projects as the ace of the day against the free-swinging Twins lineup. Minnesota’s collective strikeout rate sits at 27.4% to start the season and Glasnow worked to a 33.4% strikeout rate over 21 starts and 120.0 innings last season. The righty has made three starts this year, working 17.0 innings and pitching to a 3.18 ERA and 4.16 xFIP with a 22.7% strikeout rate to this point. His 13.6% swinging-strike rate is strong but down somewhat from last year’s 16.4%, his CSW% has been down further at 26.7% after a 33.4% mark last year. Those are not concerning marks in a small early-season sample, Glasnow projects as the best pitching play on the slate by several points tonight for his hefty $10,000/$10,100 salaries.
- The Twins are difficult to roster in this spot, they dip to the bottom of the stacks board against the ace starter and the team has an average WRC+ mark of 64 to start the season. Minnesota’s lineup opens with Edouard Julien who has power and a bit of speed from the left side, he has a 52 WRC+ over 27 plate appearances and has struck out at a 33.3% clip to start the year. Carlos Correa has a 169 WRC+ over 34 solid plate appearances and Alex Kirilloff has hit everything in sight over 31 opportunities, posting a .370/.419/.667 triple-slash with a .296 ISO and 206 WRC+ early in the season. Byron Buxton leads the team at 10.00 exactly in our home run model tonight. Buxton has yet to deliver anything noteworthy in the 2024 season. Max Kepler has a bit of left-handed power appeal but this is not a good matchup, the same is true for Carlos Santana and Matt Wallner behind him. Willi Castro could get on and steal a base, but his correlated scoring appeal is limited tonight and Christian Vazquez has seen his best days in the rearview mirror but continued driving for several miles.
Play: Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers bats/stacks
Philadelphia Phillies (-129/4.01) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+119/3.57)
- Righty Sonny Gray is making his Cardinals debut after a delayed start to the season caused by a hamstring injury. Gray is on a limit of 65 pitches today and is off the board against the Phillies.
- Philadelphia will have Gray to deal with for about four innings before he hands off to the bullpen, the team has been difficult to nail down early in the season and the pitching change does not help matters. Gray has enough talent to hold the Phillies down while he is in the game, they are not popping up as one of the absolute best stacks of the day but land in a playable range in the middle. Kyle Schwarber has a 10.21 in the home run model with two in the books already over 45 plate appearances. Trea Turner is a superstar shortstop off to another slow start, though he has stolen three bases to help pad DFS scoring slightly. Bryce Harper is at a fair $3,900/$5,800 price tag, his 6.98 in the home run model reflects his upper-mid-range power that we have seen since his return last season. Harper blasted three homers in one game this year but those are the only three he has hit over his first 39 plate appearances while creating runs 42% better than average. JT Realmuto is a top catcher who has created runs 35% better than average early in the season. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott provide good righty-lefty bats with contact skills and a bit of pop in the heart of the lineup ahead of Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh, who both land a bit cheap at $2,800/$4,200 and $2,800/$3,400. Johan Rojas has provided a stolen base but sits 71% below the average for run creation over his first 29 chances this year, he was better than that in a small sample of 164 plate appearances last year and has value as a cheap wrap-around play
- Zack Wheeler is an excellent starter who typically works deep into ball games and limits run creation and power. Wheeler had a 26.9% strikeout rate with a 3.61 ERA and 3.54 xFIP while allowing just 5.1% barrels and a 2.54% home run rate on 86.9 mph of exit velocity last season. This year he has made two starts, working 12.0 innings and pitching to a 0.75 ERA with a 2.13 xFIP, a 31.3% strikeout rate with a 2.1% walk rate, and an 18.7% swinging-strike rate. Wheeler has not allowed a home run in his first two starts and has been one of the sharpest pitchers in baseball early in the season, he seems discounted at $9,600 on DraftKings but the $10,600 on FanDuel is potentially a talent tax on this slate. Wheeler has a strong projection and is very much in play on either site.
- St. Louis has an interesting collection of hitters atop the lineup. Brendan Donovan offers triple-position eligibility for $3,100 on FanDuel but is only an outfielder across town on DraftKings. Donovan has created runs 52% better than average with a homer in the books over 45 plate appearances, he hit 11 home runs in 371 chances and had a 118 WRC+ last season. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are known commodities on the corners, the infielders still have star-caliber bats from the right side but they have not gotten off to the best starts and they have been somewhat diminished from their very best days at the plate. Nolan Gorman has two home runs with a .195 ISO but a 42.2% strikeout rate and 82 WRC+ over 45 plate appearances, he led the team with 27 homers last year. Willson Contreras was out of the lineup with Ivan Herrera stepping in, the veteran catcher is a very strong hitter for the position, if we get Herrera again tonight he is playable in the heart of the lineup, both catchers have two home runs already this season. Jordan Walker is the top bat later in the lineup with Alec Burleson checking in as a cheap left-handed bat and Masyn Winn joining Victor Scott at the bottom. Wheeler is difficult to stack against, this is not a good spot for Cardinals bats.
Play: Zack Wheeler, small doses of Phillies bats/stacks.
Oakland Athletics (+177/3.80) @ Texas Rangers (-194/5.31)
- Nathan Eovaldi worked fairly deep into each of his first two starts, pitching six innings and turning in a quality start with two runs on four hits and three strikeouts against the Cubs in his first outing. The second start came at Tampa Bay and was a stronger effort across the board. Eovaldi worked 7.0 innings of shutout ball, striking out eight Rays while walking one and allowing four hits. Against a very low-end Athletics team that is carrying just a 3.80-run implied total, Eovaldi looks a bit undervalued at $8,800 on DraftKings, his $9,500 price on FanDuel is closer to accurate but the righty is an easy choice when one does not opt for the Glasnow or Wheeler premiums.
- Oakland’s lineup has very little appeal in this spot but the top few hitters have been productive early in the season. Abraham Toro has a home run in his first 19 plate appearances and comes cheap at $2,300/$2,200 at third base. Zack Gelof is the team’s best player, he has a 136 WRC+ with a homer and two stolen bases on a .243/.349/.432 triple-slash over 44 plate appearances. JJ Bleday has a bit of lefty quality, he has one home run and a 130 WRC+ in 42 chances but had a rough 2023 over 303 plate appearances with 10 home runs and a .195/.310/.355 triple-slash and a 92 WRC+. JD Davis has blasted two home runs to start the season, and Seth Brown has a bit of left-handed power but is a highly unreliable free-swinger at the plate. Shea Langeliers is cheap with a bit of premium contact and home run potential at catcher but he does not project well even for the ludicrously cheap pricing. Ryan Noda produced a 123 WRC+ with a .364 on-base percentage over his 490 plate appearances last year, the lefty should be higher in this lineup than he is in the projected version. Nick Allen and Lawrence Butler are afterthoughts. Brent Rooker has some right-handed pop if he makes it into the lineup but his two home runs do not outweigh his strikeout potential at the plate.
- Left-handed veteran Alex Wood has not been very sharp in his first two outings but the second was far better than the first. Wood faced 18 Guardians hitters over 3.1 innings in his first start of 2024, striking out three, walking one, and allowing six earned runs on seven hits. Wood made it through five against Boston in his next outing and was somewhat better in allowing only three runs on six hits while striking out seven. Wood does not project well for the $6,300/$5,700 but he has a bit of strikeout potential at the bargain bin SP2 price on DraftKings.
- The top eight hitters in the projected Rangers lineup have created runs an average of nine percent better than the league average to start the season. Texas has an excellent lineup with power and speed and the ability to get on base to set the table for teammates. Marcus Semien is a star second baseman for $3,700/$4,900, he should be more expensive on both sites. Semien has a 134 WRC+ to start the season, he finished last year at 124 with 29 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Corey Seager has a home run with a .368/.442/.474 triple-slash and 168 WRC+ over 43 opportunities to start the season. Wyatt Langford is a premium prospect finding his footing ahead of star outfielder Adolis Garcia, who has already hit four home runs and has a .317 ISO in his first 45 chances this year. Garcia hit 39 homers and stole nine bases in a fantastic 2023 season, he has a 7.09 to sit second behind Seager in tonight’s home run model. Johan Heim is a switch-hitting catcher with power for just $3,600 on the DraftKings slate, Ezequiel Duran has good qualities for correlated scoring with a bit of individual upside based on mid-range power, he hit 14 home runs and stole eight bases in 439 plate appearances last year. Evan Carter is another strong young player with good bat-to-ball skills and a bit of lefty pop, and the lineup finishes with Leody Taveras and rookie Davis Wendzel.
Play: Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers bats/stacks, Alex Wood bargain bin SP2 value darts on DraftKings in small doses
Arizona Diamondbacks (-174/6.33) @ Colorado Rockies (+159/4.80)
- Cal Quantrill is not an option at Coors Field, or really any other ballpark.
- The Diamondbacks have the highest implied team total on the board at 6.33 tonight, they are the top overall stack for potential run creation but not for home run upside in this matchup, though they could easily pound Quantrill for a long ball or two. Ketel Marte has a 138 WRC+ with three homers and a stolen base to start his 2024 season. The second baseman is a $4,400/$5,300 option tonight with a bit of Coors Field tax applied on FanDuel. Corbin Carroll is at $4,000/$5,700, he has not been out to a good start this season but he hit 25 homers and stole 54 bases in a breakout 2023 and is a star option in this lineup. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Christian Walker have high-end righty bats, Walker leads the team with a 6.77 in our home run model tonight, he has three on the board already this year. Gurriel has also hit three out of the park in his 52 opportunities to start the season, posting a .234 ISO and 142 WRC+ in early action. Joc Pederson has a 6.20 mark in the home run model and is salivating at a shot against the weak Quantrill. Pederson has yet to homer in his 21 chances but is slashing .467/.600/.533 with a 216 WRC+ in the tiny platoon sample. Eugenio Suarez has a good triple slash that will not hold but has lacked power that will eventually arrive, he is upside-down to start the season but has been effective for DFS purposes for fair prices. Gabriel Moreno is cheap for his talent in this park. Moreno costs $3,100/$4,100 and is a good entry point to discounted Diamondbacks stacks. Jake McCarthy and Blaze Alexander are projected to round out the lineup with lower-level power but some speed and correlated scoring appeal. The Diamondbacks will be popular in this spot but they are a high-priority stack nonetheless.
- Merrill Kelly is in a tricky spot at $10,200/$8,400. The FanDuel price is fairly skippable, even with the recent strikeout upside that starters have shown in Coors games against this version of the Rockies lineup. The cheap DraftKings price has Kelly on the board much like it did with Zac Gallen last night. Gallen found strikeout success but was limited for FanDuel scoring and was not the right play at his price, we could see similar results from Kelly who has a 25% strikeout rate with a 1.98 ERA and 3.11 xFIP over his first two outings and 13.2 innings. Kelly posted a 25.9% strikeout rate and 3.29 ERA with a 3.84 xFIP in a breakout 2023.
- The Rockies also benefit from Coors Field but rarely get the attention of their always better opponents. For example, Colorado scored seven runs and won last night’s game 7-5. Charlie Blackmon homered last night, he has a stolen base and a strong triple-slash to go with it and has created runs 38% better than average over 43 plate appearances this year. Blackmon is more of a correlated scoring play who gets on base these days, but his spot atop the lineup is secure and he is a good left-handed bat for just $3,500/$4,700 at Coors. Ezequiel Tovar was a buzzy prospect last season, he had an up and down year at the plate but finished with 15 home runs and 11 stolen bases, which gives us something on which to pin some hopes and dreams. Tovar is off to a good start in 2024, posting an early 118 WRC+ with two homers and a stolen base, he costs $3,300/$4,200 at shortstop. Ryan McMahon has lefty thunder and always benefits from Coors games, he has a pair of homers with a .415/.468/.610 triple-slash and 175 WRC+ over 47 chances this year. Elias Diaz and Kris Bryant bring capable right-handed sticks to the heart of the order for just $3,100/$4,300 and $3,100/$4,800. Bryant has a home run but just a 33 WRC+ over 38 plate appearances this year and needs to get going if we are to continue believing in the resurgence. Nolan Jones is a lefty who was this team’s best player last year, he is off to a bad start with a 51 WRC+ and no home runs over 48 opportunities but we are betting he rounds into form in a hurry. Brendan Rodgers has a WRC+ of just seven (93% worse than average) in his first 39 plate appearances this year, Michael Toglia has hit two home runs but sits at 47 WRC+ and Brenton Doyle rounds things out with two homers and a quality 109 WRC+. Doyle was interesting in spots for wraparound power and speed last season.
Play: bats bats bats and maybe some Merrill Kelly at a fair price on DraftKings.
Tampa Bay Rays (-117/4.43) @ Los Angeles Angels (+108/4.16)
- Patrick Sandoval costs just $6,900/$7,100 and projects for a decent outing tonight. Sandoval has a 24.3% strikeout rate over 7.1 innings in his first two outings of 2024. The southpaw worked just 1.2 innings and faced 14 Orioles at Baltimore to start the season. He struck out only two and allowed three earned runs on and five total runs on six hits and two walks. The second start was much better. Facing a Miami team on the road, Sandoval worked 5.2 innings and struck out seven of the 23 hitters he faced. The lefty allowed two earned runs on four hits and walked two. That work amounts to a 6.14 ERA with an ugly 1.91 WHIP but a better 3.75 xFIP in the extremely irrelevant sample size. Sandoval had a 19.6% strikeout rate with a 4.11 ERA and 4.61 xFIP over 144.2 innings last year but was very good at limiting power each of the past few seasons. The lefty is on the board as a value option tonight but in a low-faith way.
- Tampa Bay stacks up easily on most slates, they are never very expensive and they have a bit of potential in this matchup if Sandoval does not have his best stuff. Yandy Diaz has a 5.20 in the home run model tonight, he has one on the board already but just an 87 WRC+ with a slow start after roaring out of the gate last year. Diaz is expensive for this year’s production but fairly priced against his historical line, he is always a good option for starting stacks of Rays. Harold Ramirez is a good line-drive hitter but has a 46 WRC+ over 42 plate appearances to start the year, he is very cheap at $2,600/$4,100. Randy Arozarena has two homers and two steals early and costs just $3,400 on FanDuel. Isaac Paredes hit 31 home runs last year, he has three with a .256 ISO out of the starting blocks in 2024. Amed Rosario and Curtis Mead are interesting middle infielders with raw talent in the heart of the lineup for very cheap prices, they are both playable as is Jose Caballero who has stolen four bases and Jose Siri who has six steals and a homer already this year. Rene Pinto is a sneaky catcher option with some power from the last spot in the lineup, he had a 15.9% barrel rate and hit six home runs in 105 plate appearances last season.
- The Rays player that we truly want tonight is righty Aaron Civale who is primed for a strong start against a lousy Angels lineup. Civale has a fantastic 31.1% strikeout rate over his first two starts, he bounced up to 29%+ in his 12 starts with Tampa Bay after a trade last season and has shown no signs of slowing down. Civale costs $9,200 on FanDuel and is an absolute bargain at $7,700 on DraftKings where pricing has not caught up to his newfound strikeout nature. Civale projects very well and is a good option on both sites tonight against an Angels lineup that has a 24.1% strikeout rate to start the season.
- Mike Trout cannot do it all by himself. The superstar outfielder has five home runs and a .459 ISO with a 220 WRC+ to start the season, getting some help from Taylor Ward who is 57% better than average for run creation in the tiny sample and Miguel Sano who has been 37% better than average but has made only 27 plate appearances so far. Anthony Rendon is a lost cause atop the lineup, he should not be hitting leadoff for this team or any other. Nolan Schanuel has a home run in 37 plate appearances but has not done much and is sitting at a 60 WRC+. Brandon Drury has yet to homer this season and has been 60% worse than average for run creation with a .000 ISO over 36 opportunities. Logan O’Hoppe has power at the plate and is another player off to a decent start, he is an OK target if one chooses to stack this team for no clear reason. Mickey Moniak and Zach Neto round out the projected lineup, though Moniak gained appeal by climbing up to the second spot in the lineup last night.
Play: Aaron Civale aggressively, Patrick Sandoval value darts, some Rays stacks
Washington Nationals (+156/3.51) @ San Francisco Giants (-171/4.59)
- Rookie southpaw Kyle Harrison draws a challenging spot against a Nationals squad that chased lefty ace Blake Snell early last night and has a reputation for hitting lefties fairly well. Harrison is a top prospect on the mound, he had a 23.8% strikeout rate over 34.2 innings in seven starts in a cup of coffee last year and has worked two starts and 11.0 innings this season. The lefty struck out five Padres at San Diego while allowing two solo home runs and six hits in his first start then faced the Dodgers in Los Angeles for five innings, striking out four of 23 hitters but walking three and allowing four earned runs on a homer and six total hits. If anything, this is a bit of a breather after two challenging starts, Harrison projects well for the $7,900/$7,600 and is playable on both sites with just a bit of a caution flag.
- CJ Abrams sat last night and could miss another day against a lefty, he has been awful against same-handed pitching to start his career. He has power and speed if he plays but could lose plate appearances and end up only with quality chances when bullpen arms come into play. Lane Thomas mashes lefties, he has a home run on the board but just a 75 WRC+ over 45 plate appearances overall to start this year. Jesse Winker and Joey Gallo were both in the lineup against Snell and will probably both play despite another lefty-lefty matchup. Winker offers a decent bat for cheap pricing, he has a .269/..457/.308 triple-slash to start the season while Gallo has tremendous power and has hit two home runs with a .273 ISO already. Joey Meneses is more hit-focused and has struggled to get the engine turned over at the start of 2024. Jacob Young and Riley Adams project OK against they lefty, Adams has hit southpaws for power in small samples. Ildemaro Vargas and Trey Lipscomb round out the projected batting order.
- One of our favorite targets for bats is on the mound tonight. Josiah Gray pushes home run potential and run creation equity in the direction of every opponent he faces. Gray allowed seven earned runs and two homers to the Reds at Cincinnati in his first start, striking out six but giving up eight hits and walking two. The righty struck out only three and walked three, allowing six earned runs on seven hits but no home runs in his second start against Pittsburgh. Gray could find strikeout success against the Giants but we are more inclined to draw shares of San Francisco bats against him even at cheap pricing.
- Jung Hoo Lee has an 80 WRC+ with a .306 on-base percentage to start his MLB career, he needs to get to first base more frequently to make value as a correlated scoring play ahead of the team’s sluggers. LaMonte Wade Jr. is our overall home run pick of the day at 10.03 in the model hitting one spot ahead of the team’s raw leader in the power department, Jorge Soler, who has a 14.10 in the home run model. Soler has two home runs this season with a 111 WRC+ while Wade has yet to homer but has created runs 45% better than average while getting on base at a .429 clip over the team’s first few games. Michael Conforto took a seat last night but should return to the lineup while hopefully maintaining his strong start. The lefty has three home runs and has created runs 99% better than average over 41 opportunities early in 2024. Matt Chapman has premium right-handed power and has homered twice in his first 48 plate appearances with the team. Mike Yastrzemski and Thairo Estrada are easy to play for affordable prices late in the lineup, both players offer a bit of power with Estrada adding stolen base upside. Patrick Bailey and Nick Ahmed are less appealing but everyone in this lineup is boosted for potential against this starter.
Play: Giants bats/stacks, Kyle Harrison, Nationals hedge bats
Chicago Cubs (+123/3.54) @ San Diego Padres (-133/4.04)
- Joe Musgrove takes the ball for San Diego tonight, he has the Cubs checked to just 3.54 implied runs and looks like a quality option for only $8,300/$8,600 across sites. Musgrove has three starts in his ledger already this year, his most recent came against St. Louis and he struck out seven Cardinals over 6.0 innings while allowing one run on five hits and a walk. The two outings before that start were not as effective, Musgrove lasted just 2.2 innings in his start in the Seoul Series then worked 5.2 and struck out three Giants while allowing four earned runs on a homer and eight hits. The right-handed veteran is a strong option in this spot, but we have a healthy respect for the Cubs lineup and would draw hedge shares against any significant exposure to Musgrove.
- Excluding ninth-hitting catcher Yan Gomes at -17, the average hitter in the projected Cubs’ lineup has a WRC+ of 126 to start the season. Chicago has power, speed, and on-base skills up and down the batting order most nights, this is a quality baseball team. Ian Happ has created runs 48% better than average with a solid triple-slash to start the season, his .438 on-base percentage sets the tone for this club. Seiya Suzuki has two home runs and a .237 ISO and costs $3,600/$4,400, he is cheap on DraftKings for the power potential. Cody Bellinger is off to a rough start but should round into form, he has maintained his strikeout gains from last season if nothing else early in 2024. Christopher Morel has two home runs and a 131 WRC+ over 42 chances, Dansby Swanson leads the team with a 164 WRC+ and a .303/.415/.576 triple-slash. Swanson costs just $3,500/$4,100, he is another Cubs star who is too cheap on DraftKings. Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, and Mike Tauchman can all provide cheap late-lineup production. Busch has power, Hoerner has a decent hit tool and stolen base upside, and Tauchman has a nose for getting on base.
- Righty Ben Brown worked his first outing of the season in relief behind an opener, pitching 1.2 innings and striking out one while walking two, allowing a home run and six earned runs on five total hits in a disaster for the $4,000 dice rolls on DraftKings. Brown made it through 4.0 innings in his second opportunity, which also came in bulk relief, and now he gets a full start. In the 4.0 inning appearance, Brown struck out five of 15 hitters while allowing one run on three hits, but that came against the Rockies in Chicago, which is a very different matchup. Brown does not look appealing, even at $5,700/$4,000 on this slate.
- Xander Bogaerts leads off for the Padres, he is still a shortstop on FanDuel for $3,000 and fills second base for $4,900 on DraftKings, a discount on both sites. Bogaerts got out to a good start but dipped over the last week, as is his nature, in a season of ups and downs last year he finished at .285/.350/.440 with a 120 WRC+, 19 home runs, and 19 stolen bases. Fernando Tatis Jr. has four home runs and two steals with a .265 ISO and 148 WRC+ over 54 chances at the plate this season. Jake Cronenworth has done well in creating runs 43% better than average to start 2024 in a tough spot in the lineup. Manny Machado has two home runs but just a 74 WRC+ and a bad triple-slash over 56 plate appearances, we remain unconcerned about the turnaround and remind everyone that the sample is so small as to be entirely meaningless at this point. Ha-Seong Kim is another Padres player off to a weak start, he had a breakout 2023 with 17 homers and 38 stolen bases and should provide similar value over the full run this year. Jurickson Profar is not our favored target in this lineup but he has been 57% better than average for run creation with a homer in his 47 chances this season. Profar joins Luis Campusano, Jackson Merrill, and Graham Pauley in extending this formerly top-heavy lineup, there are playable parts in the final spots for the Padres this season.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, some Joe Musgrove with some Cubs hedge stacks
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