MLB DFS: DraftKings & FanDuel Slate Notes – Tuesday Main Slate 4/16/24

We are skipping the intro in the interest of time today. Join us around 3:30 on YouTube for the full rundown in verbal form!

Don’t miss our Hitter Projections, including custom Home Run ratings for each player, and Pitcher Projections for more on the top opportunities today.

Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.

MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Notes – 4/16/24

New York Yankees (+101/3.98) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-109/4.10)

• Lefty Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound for Toronto, he has been effective over the first three starts of his 2024 season. Kikuchi has a 2.30 ERA and 2.92 xFIP in the tiny sample, striking out 30.8% of opposing hitters but walking 10.8%. Kikuchi faced the Rays in Tampa Bay for his first start, working 4.1 and striking out three but allowing three earned runs on six hits including a home run. His next start came against this New York squad in the Bronx, he allowed zero runs on four hits while striking out seven and walking two over 5.1 innings. Kikuchi worked a full 6.0 in his third start, yielding one earned run on three hits and striking out nine Mariners while walking two. The lefty projects reasonably well but the Yankees have thunderous power from the right side and Kikuchi has a history of giving up home runs and premium contact, he is in play but not completely safe.
• New York’s bats are showing quality in both the power index and projections. Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton are all above the “magic number” for home run potential, with Judge leading the group at 15.87, Soto at 13.70, and Stanton at 12.43. Leadoff hitter Anthony Volpe costs $3,500/$4,700, he is not expensive enough on DraftKings for his quality and the spot in the batting order ahead of that group. Volpe is slashing .373/.464/.542 with a .169 ISO and a 199 WRC+ to start the season. Anthony Rizzo has an 8.98 in the home run model and has created runs four percent better than average. Rizzo has solid lefty-lefty splits throughout his career, the same-handed pitcher is not a major threat to his potential at the plate. Gleyber Torres is having a rough start, he sits 34% below average for run creation which makes him the same price as ninth hitter Oswaldo Cabrera on the FanDuel slate. Torres is a significantly better hitter than Cabrera. Alex Verdugo, Jose Trevino, and Cabrera round out the bottom three spots in the projected lineup, they are playable in an abundance of Yankees stacks but the focus should be from 1-6.
• Carlos Rodon has made three fairly successful starts, pitching to a 1.72 ERA but a 5.00 xFIP with a limited 18.8% strikeout rate. Rodon has induced a 10.7% swinging-strike rate but his 21.8% CSW is awful and he has walked too many at 10.1%. The lefty has been good at limiting premium contact and his Stuff+ marks grade out well overall, but he has not found his putaway stuff. When he was last in full form, Rodon had an elite 33.4% strikeout rate over 178.0 innings and 31 starts. Against a top-heavy Blue Jays team there is quality at $7,900/$7,600 but Rodon’s strikeout potential against the stingy lineup could be a major concern.
• Toronto hitters are pulling in quality marks near the top of the lineup but, as usual, things trail off quickly. George Springer has two home runs and three stolen bases and is up to a 102 WRC+ for the 76 plate appearances he has made, he costs $3,200/$4,600 which is cheap for his ceiling. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is also discounted from his highest prices at $3,500/$5,000. Guerrero has also pulled his head above water with a small sample WRC+ of 103, he has three home runs but still sits below the Mendoza Line. Bo Bichette is slashing just .217/.277/.333 with a 79 WRC+. Justin Turner has been Toronto’s best hitter and has created runs 103% better than average to start the season. The right-handed veteran is affordable at $3,300/$4,300. Davis Schneider this lefties well, he has a pair of home runs and a .276 ISO in 33 chances this season. Danny Jansen is in the projected lineup for his first appearance of the season, the catcher would add a bit of right-handed pop to a needy lineup. Ernie Clement has been a Yankee killer early in 2024 but he is not an overly strong hitter on the whole. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kevin Kiermaier are not major sources of MLB DFS production.

Play: Carlos Rodon value, Yankees bats/stacks, Yusei Kikuchi in moderate doses

Cleveland Guardians (+101/4.24) @ Boston Red Sox (-109/4.35)

• Righty Garrett Whitlock has quality numbers through the first few starts of 2024. The converted reliever has a 1.26 ERA and a 3.55 xFIP with a 27.1% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate over 14.1 innings. The issue for Whitlock is typically depth of start, he has not worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his starts and he needs to pitch more efficiently. Whitlock struck out eight while walking zero in his first start, against the free-swinging Mariners, but he managed just four strikeouts in each of the next two outings while walking six in the two combined starts. Whitlock is priced up a bit at $8,700/$8,300, he is playable but the Guardians do not strike out and their station-to-station approach could be deadly for this pitcher.
• Cleveland is in play today. The Guardians are a team that can get to a pitcher like Whitlock and if they manage to chase him early they can target the Boston bullpen for additional scoring. Cleveland’s lineup opens with Steven Kwan who is slashing .356/.373/.466 with a 148 WRC+ over his first 75 plate appearances. Kwan is a hit-tool focused player who needs help to reach full quality but when he is getting on base he can be a dynamo for this offense. The outfielder is a bit pricey at $3,300/$5,000 for a player with a lack of power, though he has homered twice already this season. Andres Gimenez has two stolen bases and a 126 WRC+ while slashing .290/.361/.403 over the first 72 plate appearances of his season, he is an interesting option at second base. Jose Ramirez is the team’s star, though he is getting pressed for that mantle by Josh Naylor more every day. Ramirez has three home runs and a 98 WRC+ so far this year while Naylor has a 200 WRC+ and four homers in 65 chances. Brother Bo Naylor is projected to hit behind Josh, he has power from the left side and gives the Guardians a run of left-handed hitters from one through five in the projected lineup. This Naylor has two home runs while slashing .184/.326/.342 over 46 plate appearances. Tyler Freeman has been rough at the plate, Estevan Florial has a 124 WRC+ with two home runs and two steals but a shaky triple-slash, Gabriel Arias has noteworthy pop at the plate, he has a home run and a stolen base over 27 chances this year and he comes cheap with multi-position eligibility. Arias had a 9.9% barrel rate and 46.3% hard-hit rate over 345 plate appearances last season, he fills third base and shortstop on DraftKings and adds first base to that on FanDuel for $2,600/$3,300. Brayan Rocchio rounds out the lineup with an 85 WRC+ over 53 chances this season.
• Righty Tanner Bibee is an excellent young starter with a tough three starts to begin 2024. Bibee worked 4.0 innings in his first start, allowing thre earned runs on six hits with four strikeouts and an ugly five walks. He struck out nine Twins in the second outing while working 5.1 innings, yielding just one run on a solo homer and five total hits. He struck out two and walked three against the White Sox in a rough outing against a terrible lineup in his most recent start, working just 4.1 and allowing five earned runs on six hits including a home run. Bibee has a 23.1% strikeout rate and his numbers were excellent last year with a 24.1% strikeout rate and 2.98 ERA with a 4.22 xFIP over 142.0 innings in 25 starts. The righty is in play at $8,600/$8,700 but the Red Sox lineup has quality throughout and this is not an easy matchup.
• Jarren Duran is slashing .300/.359/.386 with a 114 WRC+ and he has stolen six bases to start the season. Rafael Devers is expected to be in the lineup with Tyler O’Neill expected to sit after the two collided in left field yesterday. Devers is a third baseman with a terrific left-handed bat but he is off to a tough start this season which has lowered his pricing significantly. The star costs just $3,200/$5,100, he has two home runs and a 102 WRC+ but his .190 ISO is low for him and he is slashing just .190/.320/.381. Masataka Yoshida has gotten on base at just a .308 clip and is creating runs 19% worse than average over his first 65 plate appearances this year. Triston Casas is another terrific source of power in this lineup, he is one of six straight left-handed hitters in the projected batting order. Casas has four home runs and a .226 ISO to start his 2024, he has created runs 21% better than average over his first 71 plate appearances and costs just $3,000/$4,700 at first base. Duran, Devers, and Casas make for a terrific three-man stack if one chooses to draw shares against Bibee in this matchup. Wilyer Abreu has made 32 low-end plate appearances, creating runs 26% below average while Enmanuel Valdez has been 101% below average over his 47 plate appearances, they are two rough options in the heart of the projected lineup. Ceddanne Rafaela has created runs 84% below average while slashing just .160/.214/.260. Reese McGuire and David Hamilton are not Ted Williams and Wade Boggs to bring life to the bottom of the batting order. Still, McGuire has hit two home runs and created runs 21% better than average in 40 cheap plate appearances as a catcher option for the desperate and degenerate.

Play: Guardians bats/stacks, minor shares of Red Sox top-end lefties, Tanner Bibee, minor shares of Garrett Whitlock

Pittsburgh Pirates (+102/3.73) @ New York Mets (-110/3.85)

• Lefty Jose Quintana has a Stuff+ mark of 78.28 across his full arsenal of pitches, on a scale where 100 is league average. Quintana has gotten by with a 3.45 ERA but has a 5.05 xFIP over his first three starts and 15.2 innings this season, striking out 17.1% while walking 11.4% and yielding plenty of premium contact. The veteran southpaw has struck out exactly four hitters in each of his three starts, giving up two runs to the Brewers, one to the Reds at Cincinnati, and three to the Braves at Atlanta. Quintana has not been bad, he worked into the sixth inning in each of the past two starts in tough matchups and he has a fair matchup at a cheap $7,800/$7,200 tonight, putting him on the value board with an emphasis on the DraftKings side. Quintana is by no means safe but he can afford to cough up a few runs and still succeed at the price.
• Pittsburgh hitters are in play on the other side of the matchup but the team’s 3.73-run implied total should be an indicator of the overall environment. The Pirates are projected to have Connor Joe in the leadoff role against the lefty. Joe has a 129 WRC+ over 60 plate appearances with one home run and a stolen base, he is a playable starting point for $3,000/$4,100. Bryan Reynolds costs $3,400/$5,400, he has a pair of home runs and has stolen two bases while creating runs nine percent better than average in 82 chances for the growing Pirates. Ke’Bryan Hayes is a good hitter, he is slashing .277/.392/.354 but has yet to homer, his .077 ISO is not reflective of his full power at the plate. Hayes is not a tremendous home run hitter but he brings quality to every plate appearance, is not easy to strike out, draws walks and gets on base, and drives the ball well. The third baseman costs a mere $2,900/$4,200 tonight. Edward Olivares has three homers and a .256 ISO in just 42 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has a $2,800/$3,500 price tag in the outfield. Andrew McCutchen has a 94 WRC+ over 47 plate appearances, the veteran should improve over the next few weeks, he is still talented and capable on the field but he has struck out at a 36.2% clip to start this season. Oneil Cruz slides down the lineup, Cruz has struck out at a 39.7% rate, the left-handed shortstop has immense raw potential on any given slate but he sits 26% below average for run creation in the small sample early in the year. Michael A. Taylor is a late lineup favorite for $2,800/$3,100, he has power and speed and has gotten off to a good start in 2024. Jared Triolo and Henry Davis are capable down-lineup pieces as well, despite Davis’ slow start.
• Rookie hurler Jared Jones has an excellent arsenal of pitches on the mound. The highly regarded prospect has made three starts, working 18.0 innings and pitching to a tremendous 34.7% strikeout rate while inducing an outrageous 18.9% swinging-strike rate with a 33.5% CSW. Jones has walked only 2.8% of opposing hitters while pitching to a 4.00 ERA but a sparkling 2.37 xFIP, his one hiccup has been with premium contact. When hitters have managed to connect with his pitches, Jones has allowed a bumpy 15.9% barrel rate on 18.1 degrees of launch with a 54.6% hard-hit rate, 90.8 mph of exit velocity and a 5.56% home run rate (amounting to four total home runs in three games to 72 hitters, all of which came in his two more recent starts). Jones costs the full freight on FanDuel at $9,700 but remains affordable at $8,500 on DraftKings. The Mets are drawing clear power marks against the contact-based performance but Jones has major potential for strikeouts and fantasy points if he can work clean innings and avoid the long ball.
• New York ranks at the top of the power index but they do not rate out as one of the best overall stacks of the day, such has been the nature of Jones’ performances to this point in his brief MLB career. New York has four hitters graded over the “magic number” for home run potential, including Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Alvarez. Alonso leads the entire slate with a 19.00 in the model, if he gets bat on ball ball might travel tonight. The group is a playable stack with either Starling Marte or Brett Baty joining the action. Only Lindor is off to a bad start, he has been very bad with a .152/.260/.227 triple-slash, a 48 WRC+, and just one home run on the board this season. The shortstop remains highly talented, his turnaround is coming and he is affordable at $2,900/$4,500. We would not recommend eliminating Lindor from stacking consideration tonight. Alonso has six home runs on the season and is our overall home run pick of the day. Nimmo is a terrific option for correlated scoring and individual quality, and Alvarez is cheap for his positional power at catcher. Marte has created runs 15% better than average with two homers and three steals in 73 plate appearances and Baty has a 118 WRC+ with a .316/.371/.386 triple-slash for just $2,700/$3,000 at third base. The bottom of the lineup includes Jeff McNeil who has been unfortunate this season, as a player who relies on BABIP for success he is struggling. DJ Stewart has gotten on base at a .412 clip with two home runs and a stolen base in just 34 plate appearances, the lefty has a 161 WRC+ and .320 ISO in the tiny sample. Harrison Bader has a .304/.333/.326 triple-slash but a 90 WRC+ with zero home runs and three steals, he is not a priority late in the lineup but is inexpensive and not entirely incapable.

Play: Jared Jones, Mets bats/stacks, Jose Quintana value darts, Pirates bats/stacks

Kansas City Royals (-179/4.64) @ Chicago White Sox (+164/3.46)

• This game is under significant risk of weather.
• Rookie Jonathan Cannon is making his MLB debut for Chicago, he is not an option on either site and the Royals look good against him with a 4.64-run implied total. Cannon had a 3.59 ERA with a 3.94 xFIP and a 22.9% strikeout rate over 72.2 innings in High-A last year at age 22. He worked 9.2 innings in two starts at AAA to open this year, pitching to a 2.79 ERA but a 4.45 xFIP and posting a 25.6% strikeout rate but an 11.6% walk rate in the tiny sample.
• Maikel Garcia has a 58 WRC+ and a .224 on-base percentage, he is an odd fit in the leadoff spot but he has talent at the plate with both power and speed. Bobby Witt Jr. has created runs 87% better than average with four homers and three stolen bases in a hot start for a star shortstop. Witt is pricey but worthwhile when stacking Royals and everyone around him can help average down his price. Vinnie Pasquantino is finding his form for the season, he is now up to .255/.344/.473 with three home runs and a 131 WRC+ with a .218 ISO. Pasquantino is a potentially tremendous hitter, he drives the ball very well and rarely strikes out, if he can gain a bit of additional launch this season his numbers should skyrocket. The first baseman remains cheap at $2,900/$4,400. Salvador Perez is expected to return to the lineup after a one day absence due to injury. Perez has four early home runs in 65 plate appearances, the catcher is a premium bat for the position. MJ Melendez has three home runs and a 143 WRC+ and Nelson Velazquez has hit two home runs and has a 135 WRC+, they cost $3,300/$4,200 and $3,000/$3,900 respectively, which is too cheap. Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfroe, and Kyle Isbel round out the projected lineup.
• Righty Brady Singer is a high-end option for tonight. Singer is facing one of baseball’s worst lineups and he could repeat the success that Seth Lugo had against this squad last night. Chicago may add Eloy Jimenez back to the mix, but Singer has been good over time, he is very expensive on FanDuel at $10,500 with a significant matchup tax, at $9,200 he is a bit more interesting on DraftKings. The righty has a 25.7% strikeout rate with a 0.98 ERA and 3.18 xFIP in a sharp start to the season. Singer faced this same White Sox team in his second start of the year, striking out four but allowing just one earned run on a solo homer and two total hits in 6.1 innings.
• Chicago is a barely playable lineup, even for contrarian reasons. If Eloy Jimenez returns he gives the team one constantly unhealthy premium bat. The lineup has a total of four home runs for the season, two belong to Gavin Sheets, with one each going to Braden Shewmake and Korey Lee. The nine-man projected lineup has an average batting average of .202 with an average on-base of .258 and a .290 slugging percentage, this is an atrocious baseball team that we will target with pitching all season.

Play: Brady Singer, Royals bats/stacks

San Diego Padres (-119/4.45) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+110/4.14)

• Veteran southpaw Wade Miley is typically better at limiting premium contact and home run potential than he is at striking out opposing hitters or pitching clean games. Miley is making just his second start of the season, the first lasted merely 4.0 innings, the lefty faced 14 hitters and allowed one earned run on one hit with zero strikeouts and two walks. Miley worked 120.1 innings in 23 starts last year, striking out 16.1% while pitching to a 3.14 ERA but a 4.85 xFIP. He gave up a 3.27% home run rate on just 31.1% hard hits and 87.3 mph of exit velocity. Miley is not a good option on either site.
• Padres bats are in play once again. San Diego has a longer lineup than in previous seasons and the top end remains very talented at fair pricing. Xander Bogaerts finally has second base eligibility on FanDuel, while retaining his shortstop option as well. Bogaerts has a 69 WRC+ with one home run and one stolen base in a slow start, he is cheap at $2,900/$4,400 given his track record. Fernando Tatis Jr. is also cheap for his ceiling at $3,800/$5,500. Tatis is a superstar-caliber talent, he has five home runs and two stolen bases and has created runs 40% better than average over his first 82 chances this season. Jake Cronenworth has a 122 WRC+ with a .211 ISO and three home runs and costs $3,000/$3,900 in the third spot in the lineup where he is surrounded by quality. Manny Machado has four homers with a .197 ISO and 120 WRC+ in a quick turnaround, he remains affordable at $3,200/$4,800. Jurickson Profar has created runs 58% better than average, it will not last but he is a cheap hitter in the middle of this stack. Ha-Seong Kim has triple-position eligibility for just $3,200 on FanDuel, he is a $3,900 shortstop on DraftKings. Kim hit 17 home runs and stole 38 bases last season, he has two homers and four steals this season with a 105 WRC+ and a .191 ISO. Luis Campusano, Jackson Merrill, and Eguy Rosario are projected to round out the lineup with payable pieces.
• Righty Dylan Cease is carrying one of the top projections on the pitching board. Cease has terrific stuff, his 124.95 Stuff+ rating is far above the league average and he has wielded it well with a 30.3% strikeout rate over 16.2 innings in his first three starts of the campaign. Cease has been a solid strikeout option over time and he is facing a gettable Brewers lineup. Milwaukee has been an interesting team to start the season, their collective strikeout rate is not bad at 21.5% but that includes an unrealistic 17.9% for Willy Adames and several other uncharacteristically low small-sample marks. Cease is a $9,500 bargain on FanDuel, he costs $10,700 on DraftKings and makes a good play on either site, particularly if the cost keeps his ownership lower than it should be on the two-starter site.
• Jackson Chourio moved back to the top of the lineup and had a strong performance last night. Chourio has been up and down to start his career, his contact numbers were not where they should be and he has struck out too much but he has also hit three home runs and stolen three bases. Chourio is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, he costs $3,200/$3,500 but he could be challenged for quality by the elite strikeout pitcher. William Contreras has four homers and a .390/.479/.661 triple-slash with a .271 ISO and a 206 WRC+, he is a premium catcher in a bad matchup. Sal Frelick is a light-hitting option in the third spot, Willy Adames is off to a good start that is unlikely to be sustained for anything beyond power, and Jake Bauers joins Rhys Hoskins in a lefty-righty power tandem in the heart of the lineup. Hoskins has three home runs with a .231 ISO in a nice return to action, he is cheap at $3,100/$4,600 at first base. Brice Turang has gotten on at a .364 clip and stolen eight bases, padding his WRC+ to 127 early in the year. Joey Ortiz and Blake Perkins round out the projected batting order.

Play: Dylan Cease, Padres bats/stacks

Atlanta Braves (-110/4.87) @ Houston Astros (+102/4.72)

• Righty Hunter Brown has gotten off to a rough start with a 16.43 ERA and 5.55 xFIP over 7.2 innings in three starts. Brown struck out five Yankees in 4.0 innings and gave up an unearned run on four hits in his one good, but short, start this year. The next time out he lasted 3.0, striking out three, walking four, and allowing five runs on eight hits, including a home run. Facing the Royals in Kansas City last week, Brown melted down with 11 hits allowed to 14 hitters, he gave up nine earned runs and did not get out of the first inning. This is not the spot to get right, Brown is off the board tonight, if one is determined to play a Hunter, the color of the day is Green(e) not Brown.
• Atlanta bats are always in play. The Braves are ranked second on today’s board with the Dodgers facing Patrick Corbin, but Atlanta is playable from 1-9. Ronald Acuna Jr. is hunting for his first home run but his triple-slash is already coming around and he has created runs 17% better than average to start the season, his price has dipped by $100 on both sites. Ozzie Albies has two home runs and a 141 WRC+, Austin Riley has two homers and a 129 WRC+, Matt Olson has launched three long balls and is a tremendous left-handed source of power at first base, and Marcell Ozuna has seven home runs with a monstrous .381 ISO and 207 WRC+. Ozuna costs $4,000 on FanDuel but somehow is still just a $5,200 outfielder on DraftKings. Michael Harris has 25-25 upside, he has two home runs and a stolen base while creating runs 17% better than average and costs just $3,200/$4,600. Orlando Arcia has sneaky pop for cheap pricing at shortstop, the same is true for Travis d’Arnaud as the team’s backup catcher, and Jarred Kelenic is off to a good start in another shot at redeeming his once lofty prospect ranking.
• Righty Reynaldo Lopez has been sharp over two starts to begin the season. Lopez worked 6.0 innings in both outings, striking out five White Sox when Luis Robert was still in the lineup, and then striking out six Mets while allowing zero runs on just three hits. Lopez costs $8,000 on both sites, he is fairly priced if he can turn in that sort of performance against a much better Houston lineup. The Astros have a 4.72-run implied team total in this matchup, Lopez will be challenged for quality but he makes the value board.
• Jose Altuve has a .319 ISO with five home runs while slashing .403/.476/.722 and creating runs 146% better than average in an outrageous start to the season. Yordan Alvarez has four homers, so does Kyle Tucker. Alvarez is the better of the two outfielders, but Tucker is always a reasonable salary pivot one spot later in the lineup and he adds speed for additional DFS scoring potential. Alex Bregman has a 96 WRC+ and zero homers over 63 chances, the third baseman is priced down at $2,900/$4,600, he remains interesting and the turn should come soon. Yainer Diaz has three homers and has created runs 31% better than average as an affordable catcher in an elite lineup, he has significant value night to night and can be deployed on both sites while pretending he is the team’s first baseman on FanDuel. Chas McCormick has had a tough start to the year but he has power and speed from the right side for a fair price. Jeremy Pena has two home runs and two stolen bases with a 147 WRC+, Jose Abreu is at -15 WRC+ and might get a break for Jon Singleton, a power-hitting lefty, and the lineup closes with Maurico Dubon who has third base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings and quadruple-eligibility on FanDuel.

Play: Braves bats/stacks, Astros bats/stacks, Reynaldo Lopez value darts

Cincinnati Reds (+116/3.36) @ Seattle Mariners (-126/3.72)

• An elite pitching matchup is brewing in Seattle’s pitcher-friendly park with both teams carrying low implied totals tonight. The hometown Mariners will have Logan Gilbert on the mound, he has been excellent to start the season. Gilbert has a 2.66 ERA with a 3.09 xFIP and a terrific 29.9% strikeout rate with only a 3.9% walk rate over 20.1 innings in three starts. The righty is very good at limiting walks and finding whiffs, he has worked to a 14.6% swinging-strike rate and has a 125.86 Stuff+ mark for his full arsenal. Gilbert faced the Red Sox, Brewers in Milwaukee, and Blue Jays in Toronto, striking out eight, seven, and eight again while working deep into each game. The righty threw 7.0 against Boston, allowing one earned run on four hits and walking one, he went 5.2 against Milwaukee but missed the quality start bonus in allowing four earned runs and an ugly three home runs in that game, his next performance was another 7.2 innings in which he allowed a solo home run and five total hits. Gilbert has the top projection on the slate for $10,200/$9,500 and he could gain upside from the free-swinging Reds as long as he avoids their power.
• Cincinnati has a collective 26.4% strikeout rate, they lack plate discipline but they have premium power bats and several interesting DFS options in a bad matchup. Jonathan India has created runs 21% below average in a cold start, the best starting point for a stack is probably Will Benson who has a 130 WRC+ with two homers and five stolen bases early in the season. India has been up and down for quality over time while Benson has been ascending rapidly in the longer-term sense. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has a 9.07 in the home run model to lead the team, he has two dingers on the year but just a 41 WRC+ and a 27.8% strikeout rate. Spencer Steer limits strike outs and draws walks while also hitting for power and stealing bases, he is a quality option in the heart of the lineup in a bad matchup. Jake Fraley has lefty power and good speed, he has a home run and four stolen bases over his first 39 chances this year. Elly De La Cruz is one of the most exciting players in the game, for that he comes with a tax at $4,100/$5,600, he is one of the more expensive mid-late lineup hitters in baseball. De La Cruz has a 136 WRC+ with four home runs and six steals early. Jeimer Candelario has not gotten going at the plate, Nick Martini has three home runs and a .353 ISO in a hot start over 36 chances, and Tyler Stephenson is a moderately playable catcher.
• The Reds best option is on the mound. Hunter Greene checks in with an excellent 30.1% strikeout rate over 16.2 innings in three starts this season. The righty has a 4.86 ERA but a 3.93 xFIP, he has allowed a 4.9% barrel rate and 86.1 mph of exit velocity on average and he has a massive 137.32 Stuff+ mark across his arsenal. Greene worked 6.0 innings in his last two starts, though the most recent outing was rough against Milwaukee. In that game, Greene allowed seven runs, six of them earned, on six hits including two home runs but he struck out nine hitters while walking only one. Against the Mets in the previous game he was better with only one run allowed on three hits with six strikeouts and a walk. Greene will be somewhat volatile throughout the season but the good will dramatically outweigh the bad and he is in one of the better strikeout matchups in baseball against the struggling Mariners who had a breakout game last night.
• Seattle’s success last night could go right back in the bag against Greene, this is a tough spot for a struggling free-swinging bunch but they are not without potential. JP Crawford and Julio Rodriguez have been disastrously bad to start the season, posting a combined WRC+ of just 96 (56 for Crawford and 40 for Rodriguez). Jorge Polanco has three home runs and a .153 ISO with a 110 WRC+ as an OK option in the infield. Mitch Haniger has hit three home runs with a .214 ISO and 160 WRC+ in a nice return to form. Ty France is a hit-tool-focused player who lacks power for DFS upside. Cal Raleigh and Luke Raley bring power but also extremely high strikeout rates to the dish against Greene, they could be punchout victims multiple times tonight. Jonatan Clase is not on the FanDuel slate but the speed burner is a $2,000 option on DraftKings. Clase posted elite stolen base numbers with excellent on-base skills and a bit of pop in the minor leagues, he had a hit and scored a run in his debut last night in four plate appearances. Josh Rojas rounds out the lineup with a 141 WRC+ over 33 plate appearances, he hit four home runs and stole 12 bases in 350 chances last year.

Play: Logan Gilbert, Hunter Greene

Chicago Cubs (+112/5.09) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-121/5.53)

• Neither starter is appealing in this matchup, both are low-end options but Tommy Henry has been the more capable of the two with nearly double the strikeout rate (22.1%) of his opponent Kyle Hendricks (12.1%) in three starts. Henry has a 5.79 ERA with a 4.12 xFIP and has walked 10.3% of opposing hitters while yielding an 11.1% barrel rate in the small sample, his Stuff+ rating is nearly 20% below average. Hendricks has a 12.08 ERA and 4.37 xFIP with a 6.1% walk rate, he is typically good at limiting premium contact but has allowed five home runs in three starts, with one in the middle game and two in the others. Hendricks has a surprising 105.07 Stuff+ rating but it hardly matters with his inability to find strikeouts and his contact-oriented approach.
• Cubs hitters are in play, the team is drawing fair marks for power against Henry and they are very good for sequencing and run creation. Nico Hoerner is projected in the leadoff spot against the lefty, he has not been good over 62 plate appearances this year but has speed and on-base skills over time. Dansby Swanson climbs the lineup, the shortstop is an excellent option, particularly when hitting second. Swanson has two home runs but just a 93 WRC+ in a mixed start to the season, he will be fine long-term. Cody Bellinger has started slow, he has two home runs and a .180/.292/.295 triple-slash over 72 plate appearances but is striking out at just a 16.7% clip which was the key factor in last year’s turnaround. Christopher Morel has three home runs, he is second on the team and has a .190 ISO but has been below average for run creation. Ian Happ is a switch hitter with good on-base skills, he is affordable at $3,000/$4,600. Garrett Cooper is a platoon player at first base, he has a 6.30 in the home run model with power upside against Henry. Michael Busch has been on a ridiculous tear, he is now up to six home runs with a .404 ISO and 199 WRC+ over just 61 plate appearances in what is looking more and more like a breakout. Alexander Canario joins the lineup, he is not on the FanDuel slate but lands at $3,400 in the outfield on DraftKings as a playable part replacing injured Seiya Suzuki. Miguel Amaya closes out the lineup as a playable cheap catcher.
• The Diamondbacks are drawing quality against Hendricks on the other side, both offenses are in play with run totals above 5.0. Arizona opens with Ketel Marte, who has a 114 WRC+ and three home runs over 77 chances. Corbin Carroll is a star off to a weak start, he will be fine in the long-term but he is priced down slightly at $3,800/$5,700 making him a strong buy in this spot. Carroll hit 25 home runs and stole 54 bases in a tremendous rookie season last year, he has one home run and five stolen bases but just an 82 WRC+ over 74 opportunities this year. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has four home runs and two stolen bases while creating runs 22% better than average, he is an excellent outfield option tonight. Christian Walker has an 8.45 to lead the team in today’s home run model. The first baseman has three home runs and a 137 WRC+ in excellent early season contributions. Joc Pederson is yet to homer and he struck out for the first time this season last night. Pederson has a 137 WRC+ over 39 plate appearances despite the lack of power and he could definitely find his pop against Hendricks tonight. Eugenio Suarez, Gabriel Moreno, and Blaze Alexander are three interesting add-ons late in the lineup. Suarez has been a fearsome power hitter for years, he has two home runs early but is sitting 13% below average for run creation. Moreno has a 98 WRC+ and is waiting on his first home run of the season but he brings quality at cheap pricing as a catcher. Alexander is filling in at shortstop, he has a 126 WRC+ with two home runs and a stolen base in 39 plate appearances. Jake McCarthy is a mixer late in the lineup.

Play: bats bats bats

St. Louis Cardinals (-140/4.37) @ Oakland Athletics (+129/3.72)

• Lefty JP Sears one-hit the formidable Rangers lineup over 6.1 innings while striking out five and walking three in his most recent start. Sears struck out exactly one hitter in each of his first two outings of the season, giving up four earned runs on six hits at Detroit and five earned runs on six hits in 3.2 against Cleveland, such is his mixed nature on the mound. Sears does not look like a premium option against the Cardinals, and the path to failure is probably more visible than that to success, but his price is very cheap at $6,700/$6,300. The lefty is clinging to relevance as a value SP2 option on DraftKings, he offers a certain bent appeal for the bold on the blue site.
• Cardinals bats are probably the better side of the equation though. St. Louis features quad-position leadoff man Brendan Donovan, who is relegated to only the outfield on DraftKings. Donovan has a 133 WRC+ with a .203 ISO and two home runs over 72 plate appearances to start the season. Paul Goldschmidt, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado are a tough group of veteran right-handed hitters with power for Sears to navigate atop the lineup. The trio is underpriced with both Goldschmidt and Arenado underperforming out of the gate this season with WRC+ marks of 54 and 93, Contreras has been terrific with a 156. Ivan Herrera is in the projected lineup, the backup catcher has done well at the plate this year after success in the minors, with Contreras at DH and Herrera catching, the team offers multiple options in the role, but they are positional blockers to one another on DraftKings and make for a clunky fit when one also wants to play Goldschmidt on FanDuel. Jordan Walker continues the run of quality righties, despite a cold start to the season, Lars Nootbaar offers power and speed from the left side, Masyn Winn has had a good start to his season and Victor Scott might be the worst player in baseball right now with a -14 WRC+. Scott and returning Esteury Ruiz on the other side should have a foot race around the warning track to decide this one.
• Lance Lynn has a 29.5% strikeout rate and a 2.63 ERA with a 4.00 xFIP over his first three starts and 13.2 innings this season. The veteran righty worked to a 23.6% strikeout rate but a 5.73 ERA and 4.50 in a bumpy 183.2 innings and 32 starts last year but he is showing a significant ceiling for just $8,400 on either site against this lousy Oakland lineup. The Athletics have played spoiler from time to time but they are most frequently dominated by pitching. Lynn is a prime value target on the mound but his days of bulldogging his way through seven innings may be done, he has not worked beyond the fifth in his first three starts.
• The Athletics are a contrarian option at cheap pricing, Lynn is by no means unhittable in this spot. Esteury Ruiz is making his return after an unfair demotion to which he responded by demolishing AAA for two weeks. Ruiz has a home run with a stolen base in nine plate appearances in the Show this season and adds three homers and a whopping seven stolen bases in his 52 plate appearances in the minors. There is major potential if Ruiz is able to hit even a little bit this year, his speed and stolen base upside are without question. Zack Gelof has two home runs and three stolen bases, he hit 14 and stole 14 last year in 300 opportunities. JJ Bleday is cheap at $2,600/$3,500, the lefty has a home run and a .262/.294/.385 triple-slash early this season. Shea Langeliers has power at the plate but little else, he is a cheap catcher option when stacking this team. Seth Brown and Abraham Toro are playable parts in the middle of the lineup with Lawrence Butler, Darell Hernaiz, and Ryan Noda looking less appealing. Noda was an interesting hitter last year, blasting 16 home runs and getting on at a .364 clip, he could be a sneaky wraparound option in this spot.

Play: Cardinals bats/stacks, Lance Lynn value, Athletics contrarian value stacks, JP Sears in small doses from the bargain bin

Washington Nationals (+239/3.63) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-268/6.01)

• Do not play Patrick Corbin against the Dodgers. This has been a public service announcement from your friends at rotoscouts. Kyle Hurt will take the ball for Los Angeles but he is only expected to work an inning or two as an opener before handing off to Ryan Yarbrough, we are not chasing either pitcher on this slate.
• Washington is in a tough spot with a right-handed high-strikeout opener and a lefty bulk reliever, particularly when it comes to star shortstop CJ Abrams, who scuffles badly against lefties but could crush the rookie right-hander. Abrams opens the lineup on most days, he has four home runs and three steals early in the 2024 campaign and costs $3,400/$4,600 in this spot. He is followed by lefty Jesse Winker whose return to form is underway with a a .354/.483/.521 triple-slash and 180 WRC+ early in the season. Lane Thomas is a toolsy outfielder with power and speed, Joey Gallo has all the power of Hercules and all the strikeouts of Jacob deGrom but in a bad way. Gallo is striking out at a 40.6% rate but walking 15.6% of the time nad has three home runs on the season. Luis Garcia Jr. has been solid to start the year with a 136 WRC+ and a strong triple-slash in the tiny sample. Nick Senzel is back from injury, for now, he is an intriguing option who can never stay healthy but he is a potentially good hitter for just $2,400. Eddie Rosario has been bad to start the season, Riley Adams will benefit when the lefty comes in, he is a cheap playable catcher option, and Jacob Young rounds things out in weak form.
• The Dodgers are the slate-leading team with an implied total at a whopping 6.01 against the struggling Corbin who has not been good for years. The southpaw has an 8.44 ERA and 4.06 xFIP with a 13.3% strikeout rate over three starts and 16.0 innings. Corbin typically allows extreme contact numbers with home run power, he is a major target for Dodgers bats in this spot. Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman are playable every day of the week, the three superstars have WRC+ marks of 202, 175, and 125 early in the season. Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez, and Max Muncy would be the three best players on 75% of the teams in baseball, they are an affordable run of quality in the heart of the lineup, all three have power and run creation potential on any given slate. Enrique Hernandez and Miguel Rojas are mix-and-match options later in the lineup, neither has had a good start to the year in limited action. The intriguing name late in the projected batting order is rookie Andy Pages, who has a $2,000 price tag on DraftKings but does not appear on FanDuel. Pages is a highly-regarded power-hitting prospect, he had five home runs in just 73 plate appearances at AAA to start this season after missing large portions of last year. The right-handed outfielder hit 26 home runs in AA in 2022 and 31 in high-A in 2021.

Play: Dodgers bats/stacks. 

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