As usual, we have an upcoming Stokastic MLB DFS show on the schedule and eight games to cover for the Sunday main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings, so while we are able to dig in somewhat today’s article is a bit of a speed round for what should be a very interesting slate.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Summary – 5/7/23
Toronto Blue Jays (-126/4.79) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+117/4.31)
The hard-hitting Blue Jays lineup is facing a competent but not great right-handed flyball pitcher who is pushing their power averages up toward the top of the board today. The team is drawing only two marks over 10 in our model, but several hitters are between 7.5 and 8.75, making this more of a mid-range power opportunity with peaks, but also suggesting the likelihood of run creation and sequencing for the talented Blue Jays. Roansy Contreras is not a complete pushover on the mound, but he has not been elite in his young career either. Contreras made 18 starts and threw 95 innings in 2022, posting a 3.79 ERA with a 4.48 xFIP under the surface. He had a 21.1% strikeout rate while walking 9.6% and allowing too much premium contact with an 11% barrel rate and 90.1 mph of average exit velocity. Contreras gave up a 45.9% hard-hit rate with a 17.7-degree average launch angle allowed last year, leading to a 3.19% home run rate. It is important to remember that the average launch angle numbers include pop-outs and high flyballs that go nowhere, so pitchers are not necessarily bad on that virtue alone, but a clear combination of launch angle and well-struck balls certainly leads to home runs, he allowed 13 last season but had an expected number of 15.2, this season he has given up just one with a 2.6 expected mark. The righty has kept hard hits to just 36.5% so far however, a marked improvement from last year’s numbers, and he has cut barrels essentially in half at 6.3%, though he is still allowing a 90.2 mph average exit velocity that suggests there will be loud mistakes made along the way. Overall, Contreras has been better on the surface once again, he has a 4.09 ERA but a 5.15 xFIP over his six starts and 33 innings in 2023, the 0.71% home run rate has been deceptive as well. The Blue Jays are a team that can capitalize on flyball mistakes in style, they have hit a fair handful of home runs already and that is without some of their best bats getting engaged in the season yet. George Springer is one of those slow-starting bats, he is slashing just .211/.276/.308 with a .098 ISO and four home runs while creating runs 35% worse than average from the leadoff spot, which is not a great recipe for team success. Springer is a star, however, he is priced down at $5,300/$2,800, the cost on the blue site is far too cheap regardless of any current-form struggles. Springer hit 25 home runs last year and 22 the season before and he is a threat on the basepaths as well. Bo Bichette has seven home runs this season and an 8.51 in our home run model, he lands fifth on the team overall, with Springer checking in second at 10.24. Bichette has a .201 ISO and a 150 WRC+ and has been outstanding this year with just a 15.6% strikeout rate while slashing .326/.370/.528 with a 45.8% hard-hit rate over 154 plate appearances. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the team with a 12.35 in the home run model, he has seven on the season and is slashing .318/.389/.530 with a 156 WRC+. The exceptional first baseman costs $6,200/$4,100 and is easily worth the investment on this slate. Matt Chapman has been stuck at five home runs for a bit, but he is still pulling in a 190 WRC+ while having a terrific overall start to his year. The star third baseman has always hit everything extraordinarily hard, this year is no exception with his 30.3% barrel rate and 67.4% hard-hit mark in a growing sample of 140 plate appearances. Chapman has a .262 ISO and is slashing .352/.436/.615, he is a strong correlation option in multiple ways and has an 8.63 in our home run model today. Daulton Varsho still has an 8.65 in the model, despite just four home runs and a .149 ISO so far this year. Varsho has scuffled with just a 6.5% barrel rate and 34.8% hard hits, both down from last season’s 10.2% and 35.3%, though the lack of barrels is the greater concern. Ultimately, Varsho should be fine to approach last season’s productivity in the long term, and he comes cheap at $4,600/$3,000 in the heart of this lineup. Whit Merrifield is projected to hit sixth with Brandon Belt following him, Merrifield is the better on-base, speed, and correlated scoring play and Belt is the better home run option. The former is carrying a 3.71 in today’s home run model, the latter a 7.15, to illustrate the difference. Merrifield is slashing .286/.339/.378 with a 101 WRC+ and seven stolen bases but he is yet to hit a home run, he had 11 in 550 opportunities last year and 10 in 720 the season before. Belt has just one home run and a far less robust triple-slash, he has been 29% worse than average for run creation so far this year but there is still the lingering memory of the power hitter who blasted 29 homers in just 381 plate appearances in 2021 and reliably posted mid-teens totals throughout the 2010s. Danny Jansen slots in at catcher for just $2,500/$2,700, he has three home runs with a .159 ISO this year and hit 15 with a .256 ISO in 248 tries last year, Jansen is a playable catcher who is not likely to be highly owned for his cost. Kevin Keiermaier is here for defense primarily, but he is slashing .278/.337/.400 with one home run and a pair of stolen bases in 99 plate appearances, which is better than nothing.
The surprising division-leading Pirates are sitting at 20-14 coming into action today, despite losing six straight, and they have a favorable matchup against flawed lefty starter Yusei Kikuchi, who is not a premium MLB DFS option at $8,800/$9,200. Kikuchi has made six starts this season and he has a 23.4% strikeout rate with a clean 4.7% walk rate, both of which are quality numbers. The lefty has a respectable 3.99 xFIP with a 4.02 ERA as well, he is good at inducing swinging strikes, so far this season he has a 12% rate that is only slightly down from last year’s excellent 13.3% and the 12.5% from 2021. Kikuchi’s problems typically arise around walks, which have not been an issue yet this year but surely could be soon, given a CSW% that has dropped from 27.6% and 28.8% the last two seasons to just 24.9% this year. The southpaw’s biggest ongoing issue, however, has been his sustained habit of giving up far too much power and making big loud mistakes that cost him runs. In 157 innings and 29 starts in 2021, Kikuchi had a 4.05% home run rate on just a 7.9-degree average launch angle with an 11% barrel rate and 91.9 mph of average exit velocity. Last season those numbers mostly climbed, with barrels rising to 14.8% and hard hits at 47.1% with 91.6 mph of average exit velocity amounting to a 5.07% home run rate in 100.2 innings and 20 starts. While the pitcher did have a good 27.3% strikeout rate last season, he also had a 12.8% walk rate that tanked his numbers. This season, Kikuchi has given up even more premium contact, hard hits are up to 49.5% with 92.9 mph of average exit velocity in the small sample, though barrels are back to 11%. The starter has allowed a 6.25% home run rate, allowing eight total home runs so far this year, including at least one in all but one of his starts, as well as one game with three allowed and another with two. Kikuchi is targetable for home run upside, but he could find his way to a fair number of strikeouts, all in all, the MLB DFS gods are probably more with the Pirates hitters than this version of this starter for Sunday’s slate, a minor investment in the pitcher at what will likely be low ownership is not entirely a mistake in large field tournaments, but it is not a great opportunity and Kikuchi is not very cheap on either site. Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected in the leadoff spot, he has been dragging this team down with just a 75 WRC+ while slashing .234/.289/.355 with a .121 ISO, one home run, and three stolen bases, but there are signs of life in his excellent 12.6% strikeout rate and 47.2% hard-hit rate. Hayes is cheap at $4,600/$2,700 he has a degree of individual upside despite the struggles and can easily be included in stacks of Pirates hitters. Bryan Reynolds hit five home runs on what seems like it was Opening Day and none since. While that is a bit of an exaggeration, the outfielder has been stuck on five home runs for a while, his last long ball came a month ago on April 7th. Still, Reynolds has been quite good in 2023, continuing his star-caliber play. He is slashing .320/.358/.566 with a .246 ISO while creating runs 43% better than average over 137 plate appearances, and he has a 15.7% barrel rate with a 51% hard-hit mark. A matchup against Kikuchi could be exactly what this hitter needs to get another home run on the board. Andrew McCutchen was a late scratch yesterday with a minor ankle injury, if he returns to the lineup he is a good buy at only $4,200/$3,000. The MLB DFS sites do not believe in the veteran’s return to form, his six early home runs and four stolen bases have him sitting at a 115 WRC+ despite a middling triple-slash. Switch-hitting Carlos Santana is slashing .261/.341/.409 with a pair of home runs and three stolen unexpected stolen bases – Santana had stolen two bases, both in 2021, in more than 1,100 plate appearances the last two seasons, the Pirates let everyone in the lineup run a little when they get on, which adds to their appeal. Santana has just a .148 ISO but he totaled 19 home runs in each of the last two seasons and is a good mid-range power option against this pitcher. Connor Joe is slashing .278/.364/.557 with a .278 ISO and he has created runs 47% better than average as a major surprise in this lineup. Joe’s production has been one of the early catalysts for the Pirates, he has a 12.1% barrel rate and 48.5% hard-hit rate so far this year but costs just $4,300/$3,200 with first base and outfield eligibility. Rodolfo Castro has been good this season as well, he has three home runs with a .156 ISO and a 120 WRC+ in 106 plate appearances this year and he is sporting a terrific contact profile for a cheap price. Castro has an 11.1% barrel rate and a 47.6% hard-hit but costs just $3,600/$2,600 with eligibility at shortstop on DraftKings and adding second base to the mix on the blue site. Miguel Andujar has been a career quad-A player who has never found a full-time MLB role after losing his job with the Yankees via injury. Andujar has made 22 plate appearances and he has a pair of home runs this year, he costs $3,400/$2,100 with third base and outfield eligibility on FanDuel but is an outfielder only on DraftKings, Andujar is more interesting on the FanDuel slate but can be used on either site. Mark Mathias and Jason Delay round out the projected lineup.
Play: Blue Jays bats/stacks, Pirates bats/stacks, minor shares of middling pitchers if desired. Note: this game does have some weather concerns but it seems likely to play
Update Notes: the Blue Jays lineup does not include Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who remains day-to-day, it runs Springer-Bichette-Varsho-Chapman-Belt-Merrifield with Jansen, Kiermaier, and Santiago Espinal rounding things out, this is obviously a hit to Toronto’s upside, but they remain playable. The Pirates lineup includes McCutchen and is as expected.
Boston Red Sox (+108/4.65) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-117/4.96)
Phillies starter Taijuan Walker has been about a league-average pitcher for most of his career. The righty has his moments but he is undependable and flawed on the mound, and he is in a bad matchup against the better-than-advertised Red Sox lineup. Walker has made six starts and thrown 28.2 innings in 2023, he has a 22.5% strikeout rate but an ugly 13.2% walk rate with a 1.60 WHIP while allowing far too much premium contact. The combination of a bad profile for allowing contact and too many walks is one of the deadliest traps a pitcher can stumble into, Walker has been in trouble most of this season and has a 6.91 ERA with a 5.43% home run rate on a 10.8% barrel rate. He has yielded just a 4.9-degree average launch angle and 37.3% hard hits, so the home run issue could have actually been far worse if the starter was nearer to his previous launch angle averages of 11.3 and 12.4 degrees from the past two seasons. Walker had a 3.49 ERA and 3.89 xFIP with a 20.3% strikeout rate last year and was at a 4.47 xFIP and a matching ERA in 159 innings with a 22.3% strikeout rate in 2021. At $7,800/$7,300 Walker is not entirely out of play for tournament action, he projects in the upper middle of the board behind the obvious aces but ahead of some of the question marks on today’s slate. The Red Sox bats are probably the better play, however, given the team’s acumen for avoiding strikeouts and drawing walks. Alex Verdugo is back in the leadoff spot after hitting second against a lefty last night, he is a terrific leadoff option with individual upside and correlated scoring ability. Verdugo is slashing .316/.389/.519 with a .203 ISO and 146 WRC+ in 149 plate appearances. Masataka Yoshida is slashing .315/.400/.537 with a .222 ISO and six home runs while creating runs 55% better than average over the first 125 opportunities in his MLB career. The outfielder hits from the left side of the plate, he is one of a run of seven straight lefties in the confirmed Boston lineup this morning. Yoshida has been terrific at keeping the ball in play and getting on base when he is not driving it for power, he has just an 8.8% strikeout rate to go with a 10.4% walk rate this season. Raimel Tapia is hitting third today in an interesting wrinkle, the Red Sox have been playing games with the third spot in their lineup, using it for mix-and-match caliber hitters in a lot of games early this year. Tapia has speed and low-end power, he has hit one home run and stolen four bases in his 49 plate appearances this year, he was a 7/8 man in 433 opportunities last year and a 6/20 player in a full 533 the year before while with Colorado. Tapia is very cheap for this spot in the lineup and an opportunity to tie to the first two hitters and third base star Rafael Devers, he costs just $2,100/$2,200 and helps pay the freight for the stars in a Red Sox stack. Devers has 11 home runs with a .307 ISO and a 125 WRC+ over 150 plate appearances this year, he has a 14.7% barrel rate and a 51.4% hard hit, he is worth every penny of salary across the industry. Jarren Duran has had a great start to his season, but Triston Casas has not. The two young players are hitting fifth and sixth, Duran has two home runs and four stolen bases in 77 plate appearances with an 11.8% barrel rate and 49% hard hits for $3,600/$3,500. Casas has hit three home runs and is slashing .156/.291/.289 with a 62 WRC+ for $2,200/$2,700. Emmanuel Valdez has a home run with a .171 ISO and 137 WRC+ in his 36 plate appearances, he is a potentially productive lefty in the infield late in this lineup. Enrique Herandez and Connor Wong round out the lineup, Wong is an interesting catcher for $2,300/$2,900, he has a 9.8% barrel rate and a 43.1% hard-hit for the season with three home runs and a .211 ISO in 78 opportunities.
The Phillies have a significant amount of power upside on most slates, but it is being suppressed to some degree by Red Sox starter Tanner Houck, who has been good at keeping the ball down and limiting home runs in past seasons. Houck pitched primarily in relief last year but did make four starts, in total he threw 60 innings and allowed just a 4.9% barrel rate with a 4.5-degree average launch angle and a 1.21% home run rate. So far this year, Houck has allowed a higher launch angle of 11.2 degrees, more in line with his 2021 season where he had a 10-degree average angle over 13 starts and 69 innings, but allowed just a 1.40% home run rate with 87.2 mph of average exit velocity. Barrels are sitting at 7.3% with a 42.7% hard-hit rate and 91.5 mph of average exit velocity leading directly to an uptick to a 2.90% home run rate and a 5.34 ERA so far this year. Overall, Houck is typically good at preventing home runs, but he has not been great overall, the Phillies can take any starter deep and they should have an opportunity for sequencing and run creation, which is supported by their 4.96-run implied team total on what should be a good day for hitting in Philadelphia. Houck is affordable at $8,000/$7,800 but he projects only into the lower middle of the board, which is also known as the upper bottom. The Phillies confirmed lineup sees Bryson Stott leading off with a .295/.327/.388 triple-slash and a run creation mark that has fallen to five percent below average as he has hit in various places in the lineup. Stott is cheap for a potentially strong correlation play at $4,200/$2,800. Trea Turner is a struggling star with an 89 WRC+ but he has four home runs and four stolen bases and has been priced down to $5,500 on DraftKings and a ridiculous $3,300 on the FanDuel slate. Turner has been swinging too aggressively so far this season, his strikeouts are up from 18.5% to 24.8% in the small sample, but we are betting he figures things out in due time. Bryce Harper has one home run and a .250 ISO in his 18 plate appearances since returning, he is still affordable at $5,600/$3,700 and still has first base eligibility to go with his outfield positioning on the blue site. Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber join Harper in a deadly power core that Houck will have to navigate. While their home run marks are suppressed at 2.77 and 4.67 in these spots in the lineup, both hitters have an upside for home runs and run creation in their roles. There are quality bats lurking throughout the lineup for Philadelphia as well, a stack that started with Castellanos and Schwarber could easily be supported by JT Realmuto, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh in the next three spots in the lineup, and the ninth man in the lineup, Edmundo Sosa has been 23% better than average creating runs over 81 opportunities this year as well. Realmuto is a top catcher who has turned it on at the plate in recent weeks, he is slashing .273/.299/.482 with a .209 ISO and 105 WRC+. Bohm slots in at first or third base on both sites for a cheap $3,800/$3,000, he has three home runs and has created runs seven percent better than average, and Marsh has been off to a strong start over 114 opportunities, hitting four home runs and posting a .273 ISO and 171 WRC+.
Play: Red Sox stacks/bats, Phillies stacks/bats in smaller portions
Update Notes: both of these lineups were confirmed in the original draft
Minnesota Twins (-131/4.57) @ Cleveland Guardians (+121/4.03)
Guardians righty Cal Quantrill found moderate value in his last start by allowing just two runs on six hits with a home run but striking out only two Yankees hitters in 7.1 innings in his last start. That outing is a fairly good representation of what Quantrill can do on a good day, the righty has just an 11.7% strikeout rate in 32.1 innings and six starts this year, he had a 16.6% rate in 186.1 innings and 32 starts last year. Quantrill has a 5.41 xFIP under his 4.73 ERA, he was at 4.39 and 3.38 last season, meaning he is regularly getting somewhat lucky to even be as good as he has been. The low-end innings-eater is likely to lose this job in the coming months and he does not make an overly appealing play though his $7,300/$6,700 price unlocks interesting hitting combinations, albeit with a pitcher who projects in the lower-third of options today. The Twins have a lineup with plenty of power, given the rate at which Quantrill allows hitters to connect, they should be able to find an upside for power and run creation in this one. Max Kepler leads off in the confirmed lineup, he has already hit five home runs in just 95 plate appearances, posting a .235 ISO and a stout 14.3% barrel rate with a 47.6% hard-hit rate in a fantastic return to form that has not been baked into his $3,700/$2,700 price. Kepler is a great buy when looking at stacks of Twins hitters, he should correlate nicely with the team’s group of stars in the next few spots in the lineup. Carlos Correa has been 15% below average for run creation this season, but he has five home runs and a .191 ISO for MLB DFS purposes and he has been a star at shortstop for years. Correa is cheap for his struggles, checking in at just $4,500/$3,000, he should not be less expensive than Jorge Polanco, his infield teammate who is also very good and costs $4,700/$3,300. Polanco has made 62 plate appearances this year, he has two home runs, and has created runs 19% better than average in the small sample. The infielder has numerous excellent seasons for power and speed, he is another discounted player at the top of an affordable Twins lineup in a good spot, this should be a popular team today. Byron Buxton has hit eight home runs and stolen two bases, he has a .289 ISO and has created runs 40% better than average for $5,500/$3,800, which is still a bit too cheap for the outfield stud. The Twins called Alex Kirilloff up to the big club ahead of last night’s game, the premium hitting prospect has struggled to find form in two brief opportunities the past two seasons, he is cheap at just $2,700/$2,200 in the outfield on DraftKings and at first base on the blue site. Joey Gallo has been well chronicled in this space, he has major home run potential on any slate while wearing his flaws on his sleeve. For just $4,200/$3,300, Gallos’ multi-home run upside is always welcome in our lineups, particularly if he is under-owned by the public on a day when his team is popular. Jose Miranda, Nick Gordon, and Christian Vazquez round out the projected lineup, they have all been capable MLB hitters in the past but all three have struggled so far this season. They have a 70, 22, and 70 WRC+ in 135, 69, and 84 plate appearances respectively.
Minnesota starter Joe Ryan is priced up at $10,000/$11,000 in an interesting matchup against the Guardians this afternoon. Ryan has been off to a strong start, he had a 30.1% strikeout rate with just a 4.2% walk rate and a 3.16 xFIP so far this year. The righty has a 2.37 ERA and has allowed just a 4.3% barrel rate and a 2.80% home run rate, though hard hits and exit velocity have both been up to this point this year. In 2022, Ryan made 27 starts, throwing 147 innings with a 25% strikeout rate while limiting hard hits to just 35.4% and exit velocity to just 88.2 mph. This season those marks have climbed to 45.2% hard hits and a 90.9 mph average exit velocity, which are not great for a flyball pitcher. Ryan may have figured out the power challenge, however, he allowed a home run in each of his first four starts but has gone two straight, striking out seven in each game, without allowing a long ball. Overall, Ryan has been very good, but the Guardians are typically difficult to rack up a hefty strikeout total against. Excluding the 45.7% carried by Gabriel Arias in just 46 plate appearances, the confirmed Guardians lineup has just a 17.8% current-year strikeout rate. This is not to say that Cleveland stacks are a great idea on this slate, Ryan has been very good over time and the Guardians have struggled to find their typical form throughout most of this season. The only player with an above-average WRC+ for Cleveland is Jose Ramirez, who sits at 116. Steven Kwan has slipped to five percent below average and his hit tool has been mostly absent, though he does have eight stolen bases for the season for a cheap price. Myles Straw is hitting second today, further weakening the lineup. Straw is a slap-hitting speedster who is badly miscast in this role. Ramirez is slashing .283/.367/.441 with a .157 ISO and three home runs in what is definitely a slow start for the superstar third baseman. He has a 5.2% barrel rate and a 40.5% hard-hit for the season and costs $5,700/$3,600 as by far the team’s most expensive option. Josh Naylor and Josh Bell have bounced along the bottom so far in 2023, they each have three home runs and have created runs 40% and four percent worse than average over 117 and 137 opportunities respectively. Both hitters put the ball in play with regularity, they are not easy to strike out and both have hit for power in the past, but it is not shining through in a major way in this matchup. Andres Gimenez has struggled to just a .224/.302/.336 triple-slash while creating runs 21% worse than average, he has not been good and he will hit ahead of a weak trio of Arias, Will Brennan, and Cam Gallagher.
Play: Twins bats/stacks, Joe Ryan but maybe in smaller doses than against more strikeout-prone teams
Update Notes: both of these lineups were confirmed in the original draft
New York Yankees (-114/3.89) @ Tampa Bay Rays (+106/3.69)
The Yankees and Rays continue their lopsided series in Tampa Bay this afternoon, with New York as only slight favorites despite having Gerrit Cole on the mound. The Rays are answering with a Javy Guerra–Josh Fleming opener and bulk reliever pairing that should limit a very flawed Yankees lineup. Neither Guerra nor Fleming is overly appealing for MLB DFS purposes though, even if they keep the Yankees down the approach is not overly viable with Fleming at $7,000/$6,000. The Yankees lineup includes Anthony Volpe who is creating runs nine percent below average while slashing .221/.323/.345 with three home runs and 11 stolen bases; Gleyber Torres, who has four home runs but has dipped badly in production and is looking more and more like the 2021 version of the second baseman; Anthony Rizzo, the one productive hitter on this team (technically Torres’ WRC+ is 109 and LeMahieu is at 127) who has five home runs with a .161 ISO and 127 WRC+, Rizzo is cheap at $4,600/$3,000, he is a potential one-off at first base. DJ LeMahieu slots into the cleanup role in a great example of how poorly constructed this lineup is after a rash of injuries. LeMahieu is a good hitter but he is miscast in the cleanup role. The rest of the projected lineup is comprised of players masquerading as Yankees, you could find similar talent at a local costume party.
This Tampa Bay thing has gotten out of hand. The team has been far too good for too long and they need to be stopped, which is what Cole will be looking to do on the mound today. The Yankees ace has been the team’s lone bright spot so far in 2023, he has a stellar 1.35 ERA with a 3.46 xFIP and a 0.90 WHIP over seven starts and 46.2 innings so far this season. Cole’s 29.4% strikeout rate is around his typically outstanding levels, but slightly down from the 32.4% last year and 33.5% he posted in 2021. The righty has induced an 11.1% swinging-strike rate and has a 28.7% CSW% both of which are also notably down from 14.3% and 31.9% last year and 14.5% and 32.1% the year before. Cole has made it work, but the Rays present a stiff challenge, they will probably render the starter somewhat under-owned at a hefty $11,500 price on both sites, which pushes Cole to the top of our pitching board. The righty projects at the top of the slate anyway, if he manages to land at popularity that is lower than it should be he becomes a terrific option in tournaments. The Rays are playable, Cole has always had issues with home runs and premium contact that bite him in minor ways, though it is noteworthy that the righty has allowed zero home runs in his seven starts while keeping hitters to a 4.6% barrel rate. The Rays’ confirmed lineup features Yandy Diaz in the leadoff role for $5,000/$3,800, the sites are not discounting Tampa Bay bats even with Cole on the mound. Diaz has hit nine home runs with a .291 ISO and a 196 WRC+. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena follow, Franco has six home runs and seven stolen bases, Arozarena has nine homers and three steals and may get plunked three times by Cole today. Franco has a .248 ISO and 156 WRC+, and Arozarena is at a .276 ISO and 179 WRC+, the pair costs $6,100/$3,800 and $6,300/$4,500, they are very expensive for the matchup. Brandon Lowe has seven home runs and a .265 ISO with a 120 WRC+ and is a major power threat with a team-leading 10.66 in our home run model. Harold Ramirez has been excellent whenever he is called upon, he has a .282 ISO and 182 WRC+ in 94 plate appearances in 2023. Isaac Paredes has four home runs and a .175 ISO while creating runs 15% better than average for just $3,900/$3,300 with multi-position eligibility on FanDuel. Manny Margot is a capable low-owned bat at a low price, Christian Bethancourt has a .290 ISO with a 119 WRC+ and five home runs, yet never really gains popularity as a catcher, and Jose Siri is a frisky option for mid-range power and speed as a potential wraparound play.
Play: Gerrit Cole, minor shares of contrarian Rays, possibly better as one-offs
Update Notes: New York has Harrison Bader hitting fifth which is a minor bump in the top-5 only lineup. Kiner-Falefa, Cabrera, Trevino, and Hicks are a very bad bottom four. The Rays lineup was confirmed when this was originally written.
Colorado Rockies (+177/3.80) @ New York Mets (-194/5.31)
The Rockies wrap up a series in Queens with a game against lefty Joey Lucchesi who costs $8,200/$8,300 and who has been fairly effective in his three starts since returning from a multi-year absence after Tommy John Surgery. Lucchesi surprised everyone by striking out nine and throwing seven shutout innings against the Giants in his first start back, he was not as good in his next two outings, allowing three runs on five hits with a home run while striking out just three Nationals in 5.1 innings, then giving up a pair of home runs with four earned runs on five hits while striking out just one Tigers hitter in four innings. The two lousy starts against two bad teams should not be overlooked, Lucchesi has talent, but a full return to form immediately is not to be expected, odds are strong that his first game of the year will be his strongest. Still, the Rockies are a lousy baseball team and the starter is demonstrably good enough to get through them at these prices. From the middle of our pitching projections, Lucchesi shares look like the better play if forced to pick sides, but the Rockies bats and this starter may both be better left on the table. Right-handed hitters from Colorado should be the focus if choosing to stack Rockies today, the lineup has Jurickson Profar leading off, the flawed outfielder is cheap but he has been very bad this season and, outside of spurts of productivity last year, he has not had an overly productive MLB career. Profar has three home runs with a 58 WRC+ and no stolen bases on the season. Randal Grichuk is a good right-handed power hitter batting second in the confirmed lineup, he has no home runs in 2023, but he has made only 25 plate appearances. Kris Bryant and CJ Cron are two skilled right-handed hitters in the third and fourth spots in the Colorado lineup, Bryant is slashing .296/.386/.443 with four home runs while creating runs 17% better than average. Cron has been below average at 86 WRC+ but he has six home runs with a .216 ISO and a 17.9% barrel rate. The first baseman is the team’s best option for a home run with a mid-range 6.24 in our model. Ryan McMahon costs $4,400/$2,800 and brings power from the left side, but he has otherwise struggled for quality and sits at 65 WRC+. Alan Trejo, Ezequiel Tovar, Austin Wynns, and Brenton Doyle round out the bottom half of the lineup in uninspiring fashion, Doyle is probably the best option but has yet to produce at the Major League level.
Rockies righty Ryan Feltner is doing nice things to the Mets’ power indicators in this matchup. Feltner costs $6,100/$7,900, he looks more like a target on the mound. The righty made 19 starts last year, posting a 4.43 xFIP with a 5.83 ERA while allowing a 42.8% hard-hit rate last year. This year he has made six starts and has a 22.7% strikeout rate with an 11.4% walk rate and a 4.49 xFIP. Feltner has kept hard hits to just 34.5% and has allowed only a 1.52% home run rate, but there is enough of a track record of allowing more power that the Mets are showing an upside in this one. Feltner does not seem like a good MLB DFS option, he projects near the bottom of the slate. Brandon Nimmo leads off in the confirmed lineup, he has thre home runs and has created runs 49% better than average for the season so far. Nimmo is a top leadoff hitter with mid-range individual MLB DFS scoring ability, he is an excellent correlated scoring option. Francisco Lindor is hitting second, the star shortstop has five home runs and four steals and has created runs 12% better than average with a 10.1% barrel rate, but he is scuffling at just .222/.317/.437, Lindor should be better than that long term, he costs a cheap $5,000/$3,400. Jeff McNeil has an outstanding hit tool that has not been on display much this season, but he is still creating runs 28% better than average, he will hit third today between Lindor and Pete Alonso, who has a team-leading 14.95 in our home run model. Alonso has 11 homers on the season and is slashing .240/.315/.519 with a .279 ISO while creating runs 30% better than average. Brett Baty is hitting fifth today, he somehow still costs just $2,800 at third base on both sites despite being one of the most highly-regarded hitting prospects in baseball. Baty has a 13.2% barrel rate and 57.9% hard-hit with a pair of home runs and a .176 ISO in his first 56 plate appearances. He has created runs 33% better than average while slashing .294/.357/.471 and is just getting warmed up, get Baty into your Mets stacks. Daniel Vogelbach has a 6.5% barrel rate but a good 45.7% hard-hit for the season, though that has translated to just one home run and a .109 ISO in his 78 opportunities. Mark Canha has struggled with outfield defense and has fallen to eight percent below average for run creation on the season, which is not a great combination for retaining one’s job. Luis Guillorme and Francisco Alvarez are not great options for MLB DFS.
Play: Mets stacks/bats, minor shares of Lucchesi for matchup-based upside at price
Update Notes: both of these lineups were confirmed in the original draft
Oakland Athletics (-108/5.10) @ Kansas City Royals (-101/4.99)
Another day with great hitting conditions has higher-than-usual run totals assigned to both the Athletics and the Royals today. While the hometown Royals are showing more power in our models, the Athletics are drawing a slightly higher implied total at 5.10 compared to Kanas City’s 4.99. Oakland is facing lefty Ryan Yarbrough who has made two starts and six relief appearances and has just a 12.9% strikeout rate with a 6.10 xFIP in the early returns. Yarbrough struck out five in his last start but lasted only 3.2 innings while allowing five earned runs on five hits including a home run, his depth is a question mark in this one and the hitting conditions serve to push him fully off of the board, Yarbrough is not a compelling MLB DFS option, even with the Athletics on the other side of the equation, though one could throw a tournament dart or two with his $5,000 asking price on DraftKings. The Athletics have been frisky while in Kansas City’s excellent baseball weather, but the team is still not at all good. The matchup helps them and they can be rostered once again for MLB DFS purposes, but they will probably be fairly popular for their cheap pricing. Esteury Ruiz has 16 stolen bases and can provide correlated scoring, he has a 103 WRC+ in the confirmed leadoff spot today for just $3,200/$3,100. Ryan Noda has some left-handed power in the second spot in the lineup, he has a 10.9% barrel rate and 43.5% hard-hit for the season with three home runs and a .225 ISO while creating runs 65% better than average. Brent Rooker and the unreality of his start this season were covered in detail in this space yesterday, but he does have 10 home runs and a fantastic current-year contact profile, one more day for just $3,800 on DraftKings does not seem like to much to ask, though his $4,000 price is out of line with his true talent. Jesus Aguilar has an 8.02 in our home run model in the cleanup spot, he has hit five home runs and has a .213 ISO this year. Aguilar is a stout right-handed power bat against lefties, he could be viable for just $2,400/$2,800 when going to Athletics bats. Ramon Laureano has three home runs but is creating runs four percent below average in just 92 plate appearances, he does not have much of a contact profile at $3,500/$2,900. Carlos Perez shcecks in at catcher for the minimum where the position is required, he is slashing .326/.362/.442 with one home run and a .116 ISO in his 47 plate appearances this year. Jordan Diaz, Kevin Smith, and Nick Allen round out the lineup in diminishing quality in that order.
Today’s game between the Athletics and Royals is reading out as another opportunity to find offense among some of the dregs of MLB, with significantly better hitting conditions available than in any other game. Temperatures will be around 90 degrees once again this afternoon and the wind is blowing steadily out at up to 15mph which will help power. The pitching matchup is the very interesting part of the slate-leading home run upside the Royals are pulling in against filthy young righty Mason Miller, who is yet to allow a longball in three starts. Miller was among the parade of top-end young starters who were promoted in the season’s first month, he is a fireballer with a fastball that can touch 103-105 and a devastating slider with a cutter that is more of a work in progress. The righty struck out five Cubs in his debut, allowing two runs on four hits while walking just one in 4.1 innings. He has struck out six in each of his last two starts, walking one Angels hitter but allowing four runs on five hits in just 4.0 innings in his second start and then posting a solid seven-inning performance over which he blanked the Mariners and allowed no hits but did walk four. The young ace could post another start along those lines, or potentially an even better one, given the free-swinging nature of these Royals; Miller projects as one of our top pitchers on the day as well, but the conditions and the opposing lineup play well for home run upside and the potential for a rough outing for the rookie as well, making this a firm both-sides situation for us. The Royals projected lineup opens with three hitters who have six home runs each so far this season. Bobby Witt Jr. is slashing just .234/.276/.445 with a 92 WRC+ over his first 145 plate appearances, but he has six home runs and a .212 ISO to support the 11.23 he is pulling in our home run model this morning. Vinnie Pasquantino lands at 11.36, second overall on the team, he has been the best bat the Royals have this year, slashing .282/.375/.516 with six homers, a .234 ISO, and a 140 WRC+. Pasquantino has barreled the ball at a 7.3% clip with an excellent 49.5% hard-hit rate this year and he costs just $4,000/$3,300 at first base. Sal Perez has six home runs and a .208 ISO with a 118 WRC+, the excellent catcher’s triple-slash is up to .275/.328/.483 in his 131 opportunities and he has a 48% hard-hit rate while striking out just 17.6% of the time. Witt, Pasquantino, and Perez have not been as easy to sit down with the strikeout as some of their teammates so far this season, though Pasquantino is the only one who is truly difficult to strike out. MJ Melendez has a 10.61 as the fourth of four Royals over the magic number for home runs in our model. Melendez has smashed the ball when he has made contact this year, the lefty has a 15.5% barrel rate and a 57.7% mark for hard hits so far this season, though that has translated to just three home runs and a .198/.280/.360 triple-slash with a .162 ISO, which has helped reduce the player to just a $4,000/$3,000 salary at catcher or in the outfield on both sites. Edward Olivares has had a serviceable 107 plate appearances this year, but he is slightly below average at 98 WRC+ with two home runs and three stolen bases on the board. Olivares has a 7.56 in our home run model, putting him behind Nick Pratto, who slots in sixth in the lineup and has first base and outfield eligibility on both sites. Pratto has been a focus for us in discussing the Royals over the past week or so, the former first-round pick has made 39 plate appearances this year and hit his first home run the other night. Pratto is slashing .343/.410/.457 with a .114 ISO and 144 WRC+ in the tiny sample in 2023, he is a capable hitter with a decent bat for power for just $2,500/$2,800 and he will not be the most popular Royals option in stacks. Michael Massey also hits from the left side and has a reasonably good stick, he hit 21 home runs in high-A in 2021 and a combined 20 between AA, AAA, and the Show last year (nine in 248 plate appearances at AA, seven in 143 in AAA, and four in 194 in MLB). Massey, like Pratto, will not be the most popular bat in this stack, he costs just $2,100 as a second baseman on both sites. Maikel Garcia is a decently well-regarded organizational prospect but he is more of a hit tool and speed player than he is a power hitter. Garcia maxed out at the 11 home runs he hit across AA and AAA last season in his minor league career. It is safe to say that Jackie Bradley Jr. is not in the league for his bat at this point in his long career. We will definitely be rostering shares of both Mason Miller and Royals bats/stacks on this slate, both sides have clear appeal in this interesting matchup. As a side note, it seems that the weather is going to be fine when it comes to rain, despite what certain fantasy sites might have you believe this morning with their color-coding systems.
Play: Royals stacks/bats, Mason Miller, Athletics bats
Update Notes: the Athletics lineup was confirmed in the original draft. The Royals lineup runs Witt-Pasquantino-Perez-Melendez-Pratto-Garcia-Massey-Nate Eaton-Jackie Bradley Jr., and Olivares gets the day off.
Detroit Tigers (+171/4.05) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-188/5.57)
When searching for a team against which to get right on the mound, one could do worse than the Detroit Tigers as an opponent. This is the cast for St. Louis starter Steven Matz, who has a 6.39 ERA but a 4.10 xFIP in six starts and 31 innings this season. Matz, a lefty, has a 22% strikeout rate but he has walked an uncharacteristic 10.6% so far in the small sample. Last season he had just a 4.8% walk rate in 48 innings and 10 starts, the year before he sat at 6.6% in 150.2 innings and 29 starts. The lefty has struck out more hitters in spurts throughout his career, but this current league-average level of production is about what should probably be expected going forward, with upside for more in good matchups like the one today. Matz costs just $6,600/$7,400 and he projects as a decent option for MLB DFS purposes. The Tigers active roster has just a .144 ISO against lefties this season, though they are two percent above average creating runs in the split as a team, ranking them 16th out of 30 teams. They also have a collective 26.2% strikeout rate in the split so far this season, this is not a good baseball team and Matz could find salary-based upside in this start. The lefty is not a comfortable or overly reliable option, he has burnt MLB DFS gamers in the past in similar situations, but that could render him lower-owned than he should be against this lousy Tigers team. Matz is in play for us on both sites. The Tigers are a lesser option across the board, everyone in the projected lineup who has made more than 100 plate appearances is below average for run creation, with the exception of Javier Baez, who snuck up to a 101 after a decent week. Baez is slated to hit second, he is slashing .259/.325/.389 with a .130 ISO and three home runs, the public can have him. Matt Vierling should lead off against a lefty, he has a limited right-handed bat with two home runs and four steals in 109 plate appearances. Riley Greene hits left-handed and struggles for quality, he has three home runs with a .119 ISO and a 98 WRC+ in 135 plate appearances this year. Eric Haase and Spencer Torkelson have combined for four home runs, with two each in their ledgers. This is not a dynamite pair of right-handed power bats in the heart of the order, but it is what Tigers’ fans will have to work with if going to this team. Jonathan Schoop, Andy Ibanez, Jake Rogers, and Zack Short should help reinforce the Matz play from the bottom of the lineup, the group has four combined home runs, with Rogers hitting three of them in just 64 opportunities, and they have been striking out aggressively in their brief opportunities.
When it comes to deciding whether to play a starting pitcher, some guys will tell you everything you need to know right up front, if you just know where to look. In the case of righty Alex Faedo, it is right there in his name. Even at $5,900 on DraftKings, there is virtually no path to a slate-wining score for this pitcher. Faedo made 12 starts and threw 53.2 innings last year, striking out 18% with a 5.02 xFIP and 5.53 ERA while giving up too much premium contact and walking 10.2. This is a pitcher who should be targeted with Cardinals bats. The confirmed St. Louis lineup has Lars Nootbaar in the leadoff spot, the lefty gets a nice bump from the role and he is pulling in a quality 7.59 in our home run model. Nootbaaar has a pair of home runs and is slashing .304/.442/.420 with a 145 WRC+ in his 86 plate appearances. Paul Goldschmidt lands second with a 151 WRC+, the star first baseman has a 15.5% barrel rate and 59.2% hard-hit percentage this year while striking out just 17.4% of the time, he is always worth the investment and should excel in this matchup. Nolan Gorman is another left-handed masher, joining Nootbaar as a strong home run possibility on that side of the plate for St. Louis. Gorman has seven home runs and a .263 ISO this season while creating runs 36% better than average with a 16.2% barrel rate, he is too cheap at $4,600/$3,200 against this pitcher. Too cheap is an ongoing theme, particularly when we reach scuffling Nolan Arenado who is priced down to $4,500/$3,100 because of a .241/.292/.338 start to the season and, more concerningly, just a .098 ISO and 75 WRC+ over 144 plate appearances. The third baseman should be fine, but regular readers will note that that sentence previously used the word “will” where it now says “should.” Willson Contreras lost his role behind the plate for St. Louis and will now serve as a DH and part-time outfielder with infrequent backup catching starts. This is a ding to the Cardinals lineup in a general sense, as it forces in the bat of Andrew Knizner late in the lineup instead of one of the team’s premium hitters, cutting the typically nine-man strong lineup. Still, Contreras is a very productive hitter who has a 115 WRC+ and needs to be in the lineup regardless of how bad his defense is, it is the right decision for St. Louis overall. Brendan Donovan slots in seventh with eligibility at first and second base on DraftKings for $3,300, he is a $2,600 second baseman on FanDuel. Donovan has two home runs and two stolen bases but just an 86 WRC+ in his 103 opportunities. Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman are good options late in the lineup, Carlson has hit just two home runs and has a .130 ISO with an 80 WRC+ but Edman has been excellent with a 118 WRC+, five home runs and a .206 ISO so far this year.
Play: Cardinals stacks/bats, Steven Matz – Note: this game does have some weather concerns but it seems likely to play
Update Notes: the low-end Tigers have a lineup that runs Vierling-Baez-Greene-Torkleson-Andy Ibanez-Haase-Miguel Cabrera-Schoop-Rogers, this does not downgrade the spot for Matz or change the nature of the Tigers lineup in significant ways. The Cardinals lineup was confirmed when this was written.
Miami Marlins (-114/3.89) @ Chicago Cubs (+105/3.70)
The final game of the short afternoon slate sees a healthy pitching matchup with the wind blowing in at Chicago’s Wrigley Field. The combination of the weather and the starters has the run total assigned fairly low in this contest, the Marlins check in at a 3.89 implied total while the Cubs are at just a 3.70-run implied total. Miami will be facing Hayden Wesneski, who has a disappointing 13.8% strikeout rate with a 4.75 xFIP and 4.45 ERA so far this season. Wesneski has allowed a 35.7% hard-hit rate with 89.8 mph of average exit velocity and a 9.2% barrel rate that have all led to a 4.07% home run rate for the season, last year he limited hard hits to 25.8% with 84.5 mph of average exit velocity in his limited four-start 33-inning sample. Wesneski’s arsenal tells a story of a pitcher who should be better than this in the long term, the conditions in Chicago should be on his side today and he is in a generally favorable matchup against the Marlins, this could be a spot with some situational upside for a pitcher who costs just $5,600/$7,000, more so for the SP2 opportunity on the DraftKings slate of course. Miami’s lineup has playable bats at fair prices, particularly if the low-end contact-oriented version of Wesneski is on the mound again in this one, but the less-than-ideal conditions are not helpful and the run-creation opportunity could be limited. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is in the leadoff role, he has five home runs and 11 stolen bases in 132 plate appearances but is sitting 18% below average overall for run creation, with just an eight percent barrel rate this year, which seems to make his $5,400 asking price on DraftKings a bit high, he is a better buy for $3,000 on FanDuel. Chisholm hits ahead of Jorge Soler who has seven home runs with a .259 ISO and a 112 WRC+ in his 129 plate appearances. Soler is an all-or-nothing power hitter who has an 18.1% barrel rate and a 48.2% hard-hit rate, he is in play for stacking or one-off shares in this matchup, but Wesneski has a filthy slider that may have the slugger swinging out of his shoes. Luis Arraez is almost certainly going to win the National League Batting Title, he is slashing a ridiculous .430/.483/.533 with a 181 WRC+ over 120 plate appearances and has easily the best hit tool in the game right now. Jesus Sanchez is in the cleanup role, he is slashing .255/.356/.431 with a 121 WRC+ and a pair of home runs in 59 opportunities. Sustained production from Sanchez, who was thought to be a good hitting prospect, would do wonders for Miami over time. Yuli Gurriel has been productive with a 103 WRC+ over 74 plate appearances. Bryan De La Cruz, Jean Segura, Jacob Stallings, and Jon Berti round out the lineup with a collection of 83, 28, 12, and 95 WRC+ hitters in samples of 114, 113, 55, and 111 plate appearances, this is not a great bottom end.
Sandy Alcantara won the National League Cy Young Award while striking out 23.4% of opposing hitters and pitching to a 3.29 xFIP with a 2.28 ERA last year. The righty has not found that quality so far this season and was, in truth, something of a compiler in his league-leading (by far) 228.2 innings over 32 starts. This year, the righty has made six starts and thrown 35.1 innings, pitching to a 20.7% strikeout rate with a 5.09 ERA and a 4.37 xFIP. Alcantara’s walks have leaped from 5.6% to eight percent, taking his 0.98 WHIP last year to 1.25 in early returns this season. Alcantara is priced down to just $9,400/$9,600, in a game with favorable pitching conditions, this could make for a decent get-right opportunity against a free-swinging Cubs team. Chicago’s confirmed lineup features a fairly typical configuration that we have seen, with the addition of a hitter who we have not gotten to talk about since his Friday call-up, Matt Mervis. The rookie slugger has been destroying minor-league pitching and is expected to rake on arrival in the show. Mervis was the hot pickup of the week in redraft leagues, he is a strong asset hitting seventh at just $2,200/$2,300 today, but the matchup could be much better for a rookie. Before getting to Mervis, of course, Alcantara will have to dispense of Nico Hoerner in the leadoff role. The second baseman has 12 stolen bases and 114 WRC+ atop this lineup every day. Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ are two of our favorite under-appreciated hitters in the league, they are both capable of driving the ball, getting on base, and stealing a base, and they sit 21% and 50% above average for run creation so far in 2023. Cody Bellinger has seven home runs and a 148 WRC+ this season, Eric Hosmer is in today’s lineup as something of a weak point in the fifth spot, the veteran is slashing .250/.294/.363 and has never been much of a reliable power hitter, he has two home runs this year with a .113 ISO and an 80 WRC+. Nelson Velazquez has been productive with three home runs in his first 28 plate appearances, Mervis is yet to connect for power in his eight opportunities since Friday, and Nick Madrigal and Miguel Amaya barely hold up the bottom end.
Play: Sandy Alcantara, Hayden Wesneski value, minor shares of bats
Update Notes: both lineups were confirmed when this was written.
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