The nine-game Sunday afternoon MLB DFS main slate looks like a total mess on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate includes several good spots, but the nine games will almost certainly be reduced by rain (update: Braves vs Mets is PPD, one down). There are at least five games on the board with the potential for postponement or significant weather impact today, throwing a massive wrench into any ability to forecast how lineups or public ownership should fall. The game in Boston between the Guardians and Red Sox looks like one of the more likely to be postponed, it is one of three early games sitting in the danger zone. The Pirates and Nationals washed out yesterday and there is a strong chance that the same thing happens today, which is also true of the Braves vs Mets game in Queens. The Orioles and Tigers are dealing with weather in Detroit but that game looks safer than the Rays vs White Sox contest which has a significant amount of rain and wind in the forecast. At least it’s not Mexico City, which might as well be the moon with the way home runs were playing there yesterday. With a 1:35 ET start and a show to do for our Stokastic pals, this is a quick summary version of this article.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Summary – 4/30/23
Cleveland Guardians (+112/4.36) @ Boston Red Sox (-122/4.74)
This game is very likely to be postponed and will be skipped in the interest of time, we will circle back to it when the situation clarifies. In short, Logan Allen is a very good young pitching prospect with terrific stuff, he has a good chance of keeping the Red Sox in check and would be in play at $6,000/$7,500 on both sites. Chris Sale has been all over the place and is difficult to trust against a Guardians lineup that is very tough to strike out and keeps the ball in play with regularity. Guardians bats are not in an ideal situation, but the top options like Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Josh Bell, Oscar Gonzalez, and the team’s infielders, Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez are all in play in varying degrees, and Mike Zunino is always a power threat. The Red Sox lineup is not as good, but their top end is healthy against a young, but talented, lefty starter. Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner, Rafael Devers, and Masataka Yoshida are the most interesting names in the projected lineup. Rob Refsnyder is a career journeyman with good midrange splits against lefties, but he is miscast hitting third. The bottom third of the lineup is filled with mostly replacement parts.
Play: this game will likely be PPD. Logan Allen, some Chris Sale, some Guardians bats/stacks, minor Red Sox top end
Update Notes: it seems more likely that this game will play, but there is a danger of a stop-and-start, if that happens neither of the starting pitchers is likely to come back into the game. Allen is still a very strong bargain-bin option if he can reach five innings, Sale is a mess but the strikeout upside is in his arm even if it is not in the Guardians’ lineup. Tough spot all around, bats do not look great in lousy conditions with theoretically good pitching. No Zunino is a ding to the bottom of the Cleveland lineup, which runs Straw-Arias-Gallagher in a largely skippable trio, the focus is on the top six for Cleveland stacks. The Red Sox lineup is roughly as expected, only Verdugo-Turner-Devers-Yoshida is truly interesting.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-137/4.35) @ Washington Nationals (+126/3.75)
This game is very likely to be postponed and will be skipped in the interest of time, we will circle back to it when the situation clarifies. If it does play, the home run model is still liking to target Nationals starter Josiah Gray with Pirates bats. Remember the scene in John Wick 3, where Wick is fighting a pair of assassins who have stalked him into the third act? They knock him down two or three times and allow him to get back up and dust himself off, he does the same for them before eventually defeating them but allowing them to live. That is almost exactly like our relationship with Josiah Gray and opposing home runs. The starter was awful for them and was an every-start target right up until he wasn’t. It may be happenstance, but Gray has made changes to his arsenal that have led to a dramatic dip in hard-hit rate and home runs allowed to this point in his young season. The sample is small, the assassins could return in part 5, and the Pirates could tattoo this pitcher tonight, but their rating comes with an asterisk at the very least. Go-to Pittsburgh bats would include Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, and Jack Suwinski, with Connor Joe and Rodolfo Castro as very interesting bats later in the lineup. Reynolds and McCutchen have five home runs each with a .253 and .225 ISO while fueling the offense, but that entire run of hitters has been above average for run creation this season, and the Pirates are frisky if they play today. Johan Oviedo looks like a mid-range pitching option at a bad price on the blue site, where he should be low-owned at $10,200, he is correctly priced and is playable for $8,200 on DraftKings if this game plays. The Nationals are a low-end option for bats.
Play: this game will likely be PPD. Pirates bats/stacks, Johan Oviedo as a different play site-to-site, and maybe some Josiah Gray for cheap.
Update Notes: This game remains in doubt, conditions are clearing and there is apparently a window of dry air, but it is tight and the Nationals are the least predictable team when it comes to these situations. Pirates bats are interesting facing Gray, Oviedo would be in play for minor shares but there is also the danger of a stop-and-start in this one. Miguel Andujar slots in as a weird name in the Pirates lineup, he is hitting third and would be a discount play with a serviceable bat at $2,300 in the outfield on DraftKings if this game plays, he is not on the FanDuel slate. The lineup also includes Tucupita Marcano in the seven spot, with Andrew McCutchen getting the day off and putting a slight ding in the Pirates’ overall upside.
Seattle Mariners (+158/4.15) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-173/5.46)
Outside of a bumpy first outing, Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt has been better than advertised this season. The righty has four straight starts of allowing two runs or fewer and pitching into the sixth inning or beyond. Bassitt threw 6.1 in each of his last two outings, posting four strikeouts against the White Sox and five against the Astros. He had a seven-strikeout game in six innings against the Tigers and found five against the Angels in six innings. The lone bad outing came back on April 2nd, Bassitt gave up 10 hits to 19 batters while allowing nine earned runs and four home runs in just 3.2 innings, which will linger in numbers for a bit. The veteran righty is priced down overall for his struggles and the lack of major strikeout upside, but he has potential for his price given his ability to pitch clean innings and reliably work deep into ballgames. Bassitt has a 5.17 xFIP and a 4.82 ERA in the small 28-inning sample over five games, posting just a 17.4% strikeout rate but he has been far better than that in each of the past few seasons. Last year he had a 22.4% strikeout rate with a 3.72 xFIP in 181.2 innings, the season before it was 25% with a 3.93 in 157.1. At $8,400/$8,800, Bassitt is somewhat in play because he will probably be owned in the single digits even if this slate cuts to just five games. At the same time, the Mariners are in play at the plate. The team is too good to be avoided in most situations and they can target Bassitt’s fair amount of contact allowed as a starting point, though the team’s aggressive nature at the plate can also feed strikeout upside for the righty. Julio Rodriguez has five home runs and six steals, he has created runs 12% better than average and costs $5,500/$3,600. Ty France and Jarred Kelenic are cheap at $4,300/$2,900 and $4,200/$3,400. France has not been himself with the hit tool in early returns, but odds are he comes around to the player who hit 20 home runs with a .276/.340/.437 triple slash last year, and Kelenic has been the team’s best player at .322/.375/.644 while creating runs 85% better than average and hitting seven homers. The outfielder has a 16.1% barrel rate and a 54.8% hard-hit mark, he was good for premium contact despite struggling greatly the past few seasons, the sky is officially the limit now that he has arrived. Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez continue the lineup in style, they are both also inexpensive for their talent levels, particularly on the FanDuel slate where they both drop below $3,000. Cal Raleigh is a masher at the catcher spot if he plays, he has three home runs and a 13.5% barrel rate so far this season. JP Crawford, A.J. Pollock, and Kolten Wong close out the typical lineup, any of the three can get involved on a slate-to-slate basis, they are not bad options for MLB DFS like the 7-9 on a number of other teams.
The hard-hitting Blue Jays are facing Marco Gonzales who has had his issues with home run rates the past two seasons. Gonzales has not been lousy for premium contact, he allowed just a 34.5% hard-hit rate with an 86.7 mph average exit velocity last year but had a 3.83% home run rate. In 2021 he allowed a 4.96% home run rate on just a 37% hard-hit and 88.1 mph average exit velocity, though the 11.4% barrel rate that season is a strong clue. Gonzales is a flyball-oriented pitcher who tends to lose a few too many into the seats, in the very rough 2021 he had a 20.6-degree average launch angle, that mark was cut to 14.5 degrees with a 7.2% barrel rate last year, with the marked improvement in the home runs allowed, and so far this season it is at 14.9 degrees with a 3.2% barrel rate and just 28.6% hard hits. Gonzales has a 19.5% strikeout rate with a 4.30 xFIP and has allowed only a 2.30% home run rate in his 21.2 innings over four starts. The lefty has not been bad, but the Blue Jays are very good and the model likes their upside for power. The three Blue Jays sluggers who each have five home runs this season are all on the board as big options today, with Bo Bichette at 10.57 in the home run model, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 15.33 to lead the team, and Matt Chapman at 10.69. Bichette is slashing .316/.355/.491 with a 139 WRC+, Guerrero is 57% better than average for run creation, and Chapman is still sitting 115% better than the league average. Joining that powerful trio as bookends are George Springer and Daulton Varsho who have both been off to slow starts in 2023. Springer is sitting at just .210/.272/.305 with a .095 ISO and only three home runs this season, he has just a 29.4% hard-hit rate but has still managed a 10.6% barrel mark and should turn things around soon enough. The proven outfield star hit 25 home runs last year with a .205 ISO while creating runs 32% better than average, the year before it was 22 home runs with a .291 and 40% better. Varsho has a pair of home runs and he is slashing .191/.287/.298 with a .106 ISO but was much better with 27 home runs and a .207 ISO last year. Varsho’s contact profile has slipped to just a 5.9% barrel and 29.4% hard-hit rate so far this season but he is showing signs of life and he comes cheap for the upside if he plays. Alejandro Kirk is a decent home run option as a catcher, he has two this season and is slashing .263/.419/.386 with an average contact profile, he managed 14 long balls in 541 plate appearances last season. Whit Merrifield, Danny Jansen, and Santiago Espinal round out the lineup with a 4.42, 8.43, and 3.39 in our home run model.
Play: Blue Jays bats/stacks, Chris Bassitt, Mariners bats/stacks in smaller doses
Update Notes: both lineups were confirmed as expected, three sides are in play with bats looking good on either end, and Chris Bassitt as a playable piece on both sites.
Baltimore Orioles (-147/4.70) @ Detroit Tigers (+136/3.89)
Another game with bad weather in the forecast sees the Orioles facing irritating starter Spencer Turnbull, who is not an overly appealing option even at $5,200/$6,300. Even ignoring the somewhat unpredictable potential of a start-and-stop that would end a pitcher’s day, Turnbull does not offer much quality for MLB DFS scoring. The righty has just a 14.6% strikeout rate with a 5.81 xFIP and a 7.25 ERA over five starts and 22.1 innings. Turnbull’s lone distinguishing characteristic is his sustained ability to limit home runs, he is at just a 1.94% home run rate for the season on a 6.8% barrel rate and nine degrees of average launch angle allowed. The starter has annoyingly small samples in 2021 and 2020 and did not pitch in 2022, but accounting for his whole career shows that Turnbull has given up just a 1.65% home run rate, 21 home runs, to 1,271 hitters since his first appearances in 2018. While this does not take the Orioles off the board, their home run upside seems capped so they will have to rely on sequencing and run creation, in theory, to load up runs against this starter. As should be clear from his ERA, the righty has given up runs, but he has allowed three or fewer in three straight starts after two ugly outings of seven and five earned runs allowed to start the year. Turnbull is not great but the Orioles need their .345 on-base percentage for the projected lineup to deliver and will probably need to accrue MLB DFS bonus points by stealing some bases to truly get on the scoreboard, this is a mid-range stack today. Cedric Mullins has a .364 on-base percentage and 10 stolen bases with a 128 WRC+ and he can hit for power, he is one of the more likely Orioles bats at $5,800/$3,900. Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander are having opposite starts to their seasons, the catcher is at a 140 WRC+ but Santander has landed at just a 77 with only two home runs and a .149 ISO over his first 107 opportunities. Ryan Mountcastle started the season quickly but has cooled on the back of a brutal stretch for batting average on balls in play. The slugger hits everything hard, but he also does not walk, between the bad luck and a lack of free passes, he has been a bit of a hole in the lineup when he isn’t hitting the ball over the wall. Mountcastle is slashing just .235/.256/.426 with an 84 WRC+ though he has six home runs and a .191 ISO with a 14.3% barrel rate that we still adore. Gunnar Henderson is a struggling rookie who is up to a 108 WRC+ on the back of his .364 on-base percentage, he is cheap at $3,700/$2,600 with third base and shortstop eligibility assuming he is in the lineup. Ramon Urias and Adam Frazier slot in ahead of the more interesting Austin Hays and Jorge Mateo. Urias is a somewhat interesting option, he has mid-range power and is never popular or expensive. Hays has had a great start over 98 plate appearances, he is slashing .319/.367/.549 with a .231 ISO and a 156 WRC+, Mateo has beaten him at every turn. The shortstop has been one of baseball’s best stories early in the season, delivering five home runs and a .294 ISO along with 10 stolen bases in his 79 plate appearances. Mateo has surprised everyone with a robust .353/.403/.647 triple-slash and he has a 46.7% hard-hit rate which is a big leap from his 32.5% last season, he is a major asset from the bottom of the lineup though he is now priced for the production.
Orioles starter Kyle Bradish has just an 18.4% strikeout rate with a 12.2% walk rate and a 4.15 xFIP this season. The righty put up a 21.8% strikeout rate with a 4.01 xFIP and 4.90 ERA in 117.2 innings over 23 starts last season but he is in a great spot against a largely inept Tigers team. If the rain holds off and Bradish gets a full chance, he could be an inexpensive option for quality on the mound. While the success has not been staggering to this point, Bradish has two pitches that have graded out as well above average by Stuff+ so far this season, and his arsenal grades out as above average overall. Bradish costs just $7,000/$8,500 facing a Tigers lineup that has only Zach McKinstry, Matt Vierling, and Jake Rogers above average for run creation so far this year. Only Nick Maton has more than two home runs, he has hit four but is slashing .163/.264/.350 with a .188 ISO and a 71 WRC+ overall. McKinstry is projected to lead off, followed by Riley Greene who is a good prospect bat and, in theory, is a good hitter. So far this season, Greene has a pair of home runs, a pair of stolen bases, and little else. He has just a .098 ISO with an 80 WRC+ while slashing .235/.297/.333 over 111 plate appearances, which is more concerning because of how in line it is with his lousy 418 rookie plate appearances last year. Javier Baez and Spencer Torkelson may as well have robbed a Detroit area bank for all the good they’ve done in this lineup this season. Akil Baddoo, Vierling, Rogers, and Jonathan Schoop round out the lineup with a thud.
Play: Kyle Bradish, Orioles bats in mid-range shares with lower expectations than usual for power
Update Notes: The Orioles will have Kyle Stowers hitting cleanup, adding a potent left-handed bat to the middle of the lineup in place of scuffling Anthony Santander. Frazier is hitting eighth with Ryan O’Hearn hitting ninth and Mateo moving up to the seventh spot, minor bump to Mateo on the possibility of an additional plate appearance. The Tigers low-end lineup plays in favor of Bradish shares.
Atlanta Braves (-169/4.29) @ New York Mets (+155/3.30)
This game is very likely to be postponed and will be skipped in the interest of time, we will circle back to it when the situation clarifies. In short, play Spencer Strider confidently if the game plays, the Mets’ bats will be extremely limited and can be deployed only in a contrarian sense. Strider piles up strikeouts and is very limiting to opposing power and run creation, the Mets have just a 3.30 implied team total in this one. Mets’ focus bats would include Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and perhaps Brett Baty from the bottom of the order, with the balance of players as usable veteran parts in a mix-and-match sense. Tomas Nido and Luis Guillorme are less involved offensively overall. The Braves are more playable if the game goes off, they are facing Tylor Megill, who is not bad on the mound in a larger sample over the past two seasons, but who has not been on form to start 2023. Megill had a 25.5% strikeout rate and 3.35 xFIP in 47.1 innings and nine starts in the Show last year, and a 26.1% strikeout rate with a 3.92 xFIP in 89.2 innings and 18 starts the year before. This season he has just a 17.3% strikeout rate and a 5.43 xFIP with a 4.55% home run rate that has hurt him. The Braves’ power is in play, getting to shares of Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Sean Murphy is basically never a bad idea when home run hunting. The first three hitters are all in the low teens in our home run model, well over the magic number of 10, with Murphy landing at 8.43. Several other Braves hitters are pulling in good power marks, including Eddie Rosario, who has three home runs and is coming around somewhat at the plate at .230/.269/.419 with a .189 ISO, and Ozzie Albies, who has always been good and now has seven home runs with a .243 ISO this year. Michael Harris II returned to the lineup, further enhancing the embarrassment of riches that this team has on display every day. Harris, Vaughn Grissom, and Samuel Hilliard, or essentially anyone else, would be in play from late in the lineup if this game somehow stays dry.
Play: this game is likely to be PPD. Spencer Strider is a major pitching asset on any slate. Braves bats/stacks, minor shares of value Megill
Update Notes: this game has been postponed.
Kansas City Royals (+181/3.14) @ Minnesota Twins (-200/4.46)
The Royals and Twins game is not without weather concerns of its own. There is rain inbound in the forecast, but it appears as though it will be late-arriving, the greater concern for MLB DFS gamers has to be what to make temperatures in the 40s but a sturdy wind blowing out to right field. The combination of environmental factors is frustrating and we’re calling it something of a wash. The game will see the lousy but hard-hitting Royals taking on Sonny Gray who has mostly dazzled to start his season. Gray has a 29.3% strikeout rate and a 3.63 xFIP over his first 29 innings in five starts. The veteran has walked 9.5% but has just a 1.07 WHIP and has yet to allow a home run despite a 42.3% hard-hit rate with 90.2 mph of average exit velocity. He has a 13.1% swinging-strike rate and a 31.2% CSW%, with everything amounting to just a 0.62 ERA. Gray has always been good, with roller coaster starts driving fans and MLB DFS gamers bonkers in between his good-to-great outings. In this matchup, there appears to be a significant ceiling for MLB DFS points, given Kansas City’s strikeout rates. The projected Royals lineup has a current year average strikeout rate of 25.5%. If we remove the unfairly small sample of Nick Pratto, who has made only 16 plate appearances but has a 43.8% strikeout rate that average is still 23.5%, and there are aggressively high rates that are offset by the excellent 13.8% mark held by Vinnie Pasquantino and the good 17.9% Nicky Lopez is clinging to at the bottom of the lineup. Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Sal Perez, Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares, and Michael Massey have an average strikeout rate of 25.6%. Sonny Gray is our top projected pitcher today. The Royals who would be in play for contrarian shares against what will probably be a popular pitcher include Witt, Pasquantino, Melendez, Perez, and Olivares primarily. Pasaquantino is leading the team at .260/.357/.480 with a .220 ISO and a 129 WRC+, everyone else has struggled greatly so far this year. Witt has star-caliber talent, Melendez and Perez have proven power for days, and Olivares has been good over 85 opportunities, slashing .291/.341/.494 with a .203 ISO and two home runs.
The Twins are facing Brady Singer who has a 3.72 xFIP under the surface of his ugly 6.67 ERA this season. Singer is an above-average young pitcher who made major strides last season, increasing his strikeout rate by two percentage points while cutting his walk rate basically in half to a very good 5.6% in 153.1 innings over which he had a 3.30 xFIP and a 3.23 ERA. The righty is not highly regarded by Stuff+ metrics, but he has demonstrated an ability to get Major League hitters out with a slightly above-average strikeout rate, which could play well if he finds his form against the free-swinging Twins. In his last outing, Singer had a bit of a get-right pitching six innings and striking out five while allowing just one run on five hits to the frisky Diamondbacks. The Twins lineup has a number of interesting bats however, and they still come at a bit of a discount on both sites, though thankfully the stars are climbing in salary again. Max Kepler is projected to lead off, the lefty slugger has a 12.8% barrel rate and a 46.8% hard-hit rate with three home runs and a .224 ISO in a nice return to form over 67 plate appearances. Carlos Correa has three home runs but just a .154 ISO and an 82 WRC+, he’ll be back, keep playing him at cheap prices when going to this team in the meantime. Jorge Polanco has come roaring back to life since rejoining the team, over 35 plate appearances he has a pair of home runs and a .286 ISO while slashing .371/.371/.657 with a 10.7% barrel rate and a 50% hard-hit. Polanco has been a power and speed dynamo in seasons past, he is a good asset at $4,500/$3,500 at second base. Byron Buxton is on the rise, he costs $5,400/$3,300 and has three home runs with a 113 WRC+ for the season. Buxton is a star who should be over $6,000/$4,000 every day, so this is still technically a discount. Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda are playable parts with mid-range power upside in the middle of the lineup, Joey Gallo is a masher with more than that from the projected seventh spot. Gallo has seven home runs with a 75% hard-hit rate and a 28.1% barrel rate this season, tattooing the ball with a .491 ISO over his 61 plate appearances. Christian Vazquez and Michael A. Taylor are mix-and-match pieces.
Play: Sonny Gray, Twins stacks/bats, maybe some Brady Singer value shares at $7,400/$7,700.
Update Notes: Kansas City will be without MJ Melendez, the lineup is really four deep, with the idea of Franmil Reyes’ power upside in the sixth spot. Olivares slides into the cleanup role with Perez hitting third. Dozier-Bradley-Duffy rounds out the bottom of the lineup, minor bump to Gray but Franmil is in play for individual home run upside if stacking Royals. The Twins lineup looks like a strong play from one through six, with Kepler-Polanco-Correa-Buxton-Larnach-Gallo, before dropping off somewhat around Nick Gordon–Willi Castro and Vazquez.
Los Angeles Angels (+112/4.36) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-121/4.74)
The Angels are facing Colin Rea which has them looking quite a bit different than they have against higher-quality pitchers over the past few days. Los Angeles’ star-studded lineup tops the board in one of the safe games on the slate, making them an easy recommendation. The Brewers righty offers very little on the mound, he is a non-prospect who has pitched internationally and has struggled in three starts so far this season. Rea has thrown 15.2 innings and he has allowed a 3.17% home run rate on the back of 50% hard hits and a 93 mph average exit velocity allowed. The exit velocity mark is important against power hitters like those in the Angels lineup, and with his inflated 11.1% walk rate, Rea could get in trouble quickly and he has no way out of it, with only a 14.3% strikeout rate. Los Angeles moved rookie Zach Neto to the leadoff role last night to decent returns, Neto has no home runs and just a .082 ISO for the season, he lands at a 7.96 in our home run model. While he is not a major home run threat at this point, the unseasoned rookie has a highly-regarded hit tool. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, they have a 22.48 and 19.90 in today’s home run model which should be fairly self-explanatory. For the season, Trout has seven home runs and a 182 WRC+ with a .291 ISO, Ohtani has six longballs with a .226 ISO and a 138 WRC+. Anthony Rendon remains cheap at $4,000/$2,800, particularly on the blue site. The third baseman is slashing .246/.368/.290 and is up to a 94 WRC+ on his way to above-average production. Eventually, he will probably think about hitting a home run, Rendon has an 11.42 in the model today. Hunter Renfroe is tied with Trout at seven home runs for the season, he has a .269 ISO with a 49.4% hard-hit rate and an 8.6% barrel rate and he makes a nice pairing with Brandon Drury late in lineups. The multi-position infielder costs $4,000/$3.200 and now has five home runs with a .244 ISO and a 50% hard-hit rate this season after finally getting his feet under him. Luis Rengifo and Gio Urshela have been flip-flopping in this lineup, Rengifo is the better bat between the two, he hit 17 home runs last year but his power has been out so far this season with just one on the board and an unsightly .194/.333/.254 triple-slash. Taylor Ward drops in the projected lineup with Neto leading off, he would be more appealing up top where he is a strong correlation play with the team’s stars, and he has 20 home run upside of his own, but Ward has scuffled to start the season with just three home runs and a .104 ISO. Matt Thaiss closes out the projected lineup, he has a .200 ISO with one home run in his 31 plate appearances this year, he hit two homers in 81 opportunities last year, and has a 6.79 in the home run model, he is not much of a play behind the plate outside of the matchup benefits.
Milwaukee will be facing Jose Suarez, which has them on the board for offensive output as well this evening. Suarez has been a much better pitcher in seasons past, but he has bumped along badly so far this season. In his last outing, Suarez put up a five-inning tragedy against the lowly Athletics, the lefty somehow allowed five home runs while striking out five, walking two, and accruing seven earned runs on eight hits. Prior to that, Suarez had allowed two home runs in his first start against Seattle, getting charged with six earned runs while striking out four, then had two low-output starts with two in short 4.0 and 3.1 inning appearances. This is a pitcher who is not right at the moment, we recommend skipping Suarez until he demonstrates that he will pitch deeper into a game with a modicum of quality this season, even at the price it is a tall order and the Brewers bats look like the better play. Christian Yelich and Willy Adames are a strong pair atop the lineup, though Adames is the one creating runs ahead of the league average so far this year at a 117 WRC+. Yelich is at just 84 and has his ongoing struggles for power. Adames has hit five home runs to tie for the team lead. The projected lineup continues with William Contreras and Mike Brosseau, though other versions of this lineup have the platoon specialist Brosseau leading off against the lefty. Either way, both right-handed hitters are in play for power upside on this slate. Contreras joins Adames as the two hitters above the line in the home run model at 10.55 and 12.00. Brosseau has a 7.62 in our home run model, he has hit three this season with a .244 ISO and a 113 WRC+ primarily seeing action against southpaws, 16 of Brosseau’s 22 career home runs have come against lefties. Brian Anderson has five home runs and a .202 ISO this season, he hit eight with a .124 ISO in 383 plate appearances last year, so this is a major turnaround for the right-handed-hitter. The 29-year-old has been good in his everyday role so far in his first year in Milwaukee, he has a 15.4% barrel rate – but just 33.8% hard-hit – on the season while slashing .255/.333/.457 and creating runs 13% better than average over 108 plate appearances. Luke Voit got a little love instead of his typical frequent kicks in this space yesterday and promptly delivered his typical 0-4 performance, he has a 9.99 in our home run model and is cheap and potentially unpopular against a lefty. Voit is not good, he never actually was, but he’s not totally inept and he can barrel a ball against a struggling left-handed pitcher, the play is as good as it was yesterday. Owen Miller, Joey Weimer, and Blake Perkins round out the projected lineup.
Play: Angels stacks/bats aggressively, Brewers stacks/bats (RHH primarily)
Update Notes: Taylor Ward hits the bench for the Angels, Jake Lamb slots in as an intriguing left-handed power bat late in the lineup. Lamb has a 10.37 in our home run model. Rengifo and Urshela are both in the lineup, and Rengifo is somewhat interesting hitting ninth. The Brewers are giving Yelich a day off, Brosseau is leading off with Adames-Contreras-Anderson-Rowdy Tellez-Voit as the primary focus when stacking Milwaukee bats.
Tampa Bay Rays (-184/5.25) @ Chicago White Sox (+168/3.86)
The Rays were getting no-hit through six innings last night, by the end of the seventh inning, they had 10 runs on the board. This team is absurd. The Rays are facing struggling righty Mike Clevinger, who is not on the board for MLB DFS on either site, despite a low $7,200/$7,800 asking price. Clevinger has made five starts, throwing 24.1 innings with just a 16.1% strikeout rate and he has a 12.5% walk rate with a 1.60 WHIP for the season. The veteran has managed just a 6.8% swinging-strike rate and a 21.8% CSW% so far, while yielding a 4.81 ERA and a 6.33 xFIP. While he has managed to avoid massive home run trouble by somehow inducing just a 34.6% hard-hit rate, he has allowed 89.6 mph of average exit velocity with a nine percent barrel rate and an average launch angle of 20.2 degrees, more home runs against this pitcher are coming soon. The excellent Rays lineup is playable from top to bottom in basically any of its many forms. The projected batting order includes Yandy Diaz, who was banged-up going into yesterday and did not start but saw pinch hit action and should play today. Diaz is producing like a star, or almost like two fully average players, he has created runs 87% better than average over his 112 plate appearances this season while hitting for a surprising amount of power. Diaz has seven home runs with a .266 ISO to tie for the team lead. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena are true stars and they are priced like it, other than Franco’s cheap $3,800 on FanDuel that is, the shortstop is a bargain at that price. Franco has five home runs and six stolen bases, creating runs 57% better than average in 121 opportunities. In 120 tries, Arozarena has seven home runs and three stolen bases, he has gotten on base at a .400 clip, adding to his potential to run more in the long term, the outfielder stole 32 bases last year. Brandon Lowe ties Diaz and Arozarena at seven home runs despite fewer opportunities, he has made 94 plate appearances and mashes bad righties, Lowe is a major play for home run potential on this slate but he will likely be very popular once again. Harold Ramirez and Josh Lowe are both in the projected lineup, they are both killing it over the first 76 and 78 plate appearances of their respective seasons with ridiculous run-creation marks of 192 and 199 WRC+. Ramirez is cheap at $3,700/$3,500 for such a productive hitter, even before his power display this year he was a reliably sturdy line-drive hitter who struck the ball well. Christian Bethancourt is a good buy at the catcher position if he plays, he has four home runs and a .286 ISO this season. Taylor Walls and Jose Siri close out the top-to-bottom lineup, Walls has created runs 49% better than average in the small sample this year but was at just 66 for WRC+ in 466 plate appearances last year. Siri is the more interesting hitter, he is cheap and functions as a wraparound play with mid-range power and speed.
Righty Drew Rasmussen looks like a strong play on the mound at $10,600/$10,500 against a badly underperforming White Sox lineup. If the effort put forth by Luis Robert Jr. on the basepaths yesterday is any indication, this team is fully checked out, or never even checked in for 2023. Robert was removed from the game for his lack of hustle and could, justifiably, be expected to sit this one out as further punishment. His absence would further degrade an already bad lineup. Rasmussen, meanwhile, has been quite good to start 2023. The righty has a 28.2% strikeout rate over 27 innings in five starts and has pitched to a 3.33 ERA with a 3.18 xFIP. He has induced a 10.8% swinging-strike rate with a slightly sub-par 28.8% CSW% for the year while walking a few too many at 8.2% with a 1.19 WHIP, but Rasmussen has been very good at limiting premium contact and opposing power, he has allowed just a 4.3% barrel rate with a 25.7% hard-hit and a 0.91% home run rate on 85.8 mph of average exit velocity so far this year, all down from his already good marks over 146 innings last season. Rasmussen lands as our third-highest projected pitcher on this slate. White Sox bats are not overly appealing, particularly if Robert does not play. Andrew Benintendi has struggled to find anything but an average output from his hit tool, Robert is still running to first base from yesterday’s effort, Andrew Vaughn has two home runs and a 112 ISO but just a .157 WRC+, Eloy Jimenez has struggled badly since his return from injury and has missed so much time in his career that we can question if he will ever truly find it again, and the lineup fills out with options like Yasmani Grandal, who we always like for a walk, a home run, and a few runs on any given slate, but who does not inspire much confidence; Jake Burger, who has had a Brent Rooker like 67 plate appearances in hitting seven home runs to start the year; Oscar Colas, Elvis Andrus, and Lenyn Sosa, who wear numbers and collect paychecks from this team. For now.
Play: Rays bats and stacks aggressively, they’ll probably be popular though so watch it, and Drew Rasmussen
Update Notes: Rasmussen is very interesting against this White Sox lineup, they are confirmed without Luis Robert Jr. and have Adam Haseley leading off (he is somewhat interesting at min-price if going to White Sox or looking for a one-off who may see a handful of cheap plate appearances, he is a former top prospect who is well past his due date and well post-hype). Haseley is hitting ahead of Vaughn-Gavin Sheets-Eloy Jimenez-Grandal-Burger-Colas-Andrus-Sosa, this is not a good lineup right now. The Rays confirmed lineup runs B. Lowe-Arozarena-Ramirez-J.Lowe-Isaac Paredes-Walls-Luke Raley-Bethancourt-Manuel Margot, it is playable at least 1-8, but that feels mean to Margot so throw him into a couple, he had a 106 WRC+ in 363 plate appearances last year with four home runs.
New York Yankees (-118/4.18) @ Texas Rangers (+109/3.90)
The team masquerading as the Yankees on this road trip to Texas will at least have lefty Nestor Cortes on the mound this afternoon, which is having a cooling effect on the hot nature of the opposing Rangers’ bats. Texas will be running out Martin Perez, and the lefty is elevating the prospects for the top of the Yankees’ lousy lineup today. Perez has a 20% strikeout rate this season with a 4.16 xFIP and a 2.60 ERA in five starts and 27.2 innings. He posted a similar strikeout rate each of the past two years and has been up and down for runs, but he is typically about a league-average pitcher. As we saw with Nathan Eovaldi’s gem just yesterday, a four-man lineup can work wonders for a pitcher’s upside. Perez is not off the board at $8,700/$9,400. Stacking Yankees requires one to remember only a few names: Anthony Volpe, the rookie shortstop hitting leadoff who has eight stolen bases, two home runs, and a .337 on-base percentage but a 96 WRC+; Gleyber Torres, who has a 127 WRC+ with four home runs and can turn on a weak lefty; Anthony Rizzo, who loses nothing against a same-handed pitcher of this nature; and DJ LeMahieu, who is back to a .256/.323/.453 triple-slash and a 117 WRC+. Beyond that group, the Yankees lineup is made up of replacement parts and utility players. Oswald Peraza is at least a well-regarded prospect, he would be the next-most interesting hitter if he plays, and Kyle Higashioka would give the team another much-needed bat if he sneaks in at catcher.
The Rangers will be facing Cortes, an excellent lefty who has struck out 24.3% of hitters over 28.1 innings in his five starts this season. Cortes’ odd-duck approach to pitching has been proven at this point, against all odds he actually is good at this. The southpaw has a 3.49 ERA though his 4.92 xFIP is a bit concerning in early returns. He has walked just 4.3% and has a strong 1.06 WHIP while inducing a 10.7% swinging-strike rate and allowing just a 34.2% hard-hit rate so far this year. Cortes’ ability to keep hitters off balance and to generally avoid premium contact is one of his gifts on the mound, it goes a long way to helping his quality when he is not finding strikeouts, though he will need both attributes to get through this Rangers lineup. The lefty is facing Marcus Semien, who has five homers and a 134 WRC+ but has slipped back to a .194 ISO over the last few days. Semien is a pricey but worthwhile play in most situations, he takes a bit of a ding on Cortes’ ability to keep the ball in play and lands at just an 8.33 in our home run model. Robbie Grossman has been productive and has a 104 WRC+ with three home runs in 82 plate appearances, Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia are both well above average for run creation at 111 and 120 WRC+ marks and they have good-not-great power projections at 8.5 and 8.2 in our home run model against Cortes. That would be a good four-man straight-line stack off the top, there is a positional blend and a fair mix of premium and discount prices in that group, to which Josh Jung or Jonah Heim can be added easily on DraftKings. Either player would be a good buy when stacking Rangers, Jung has five home runs this season, Heim has four, and they have both been above average for run creation in the small samples so far. Ezequiel Duran had another big day at the plate yesterday and is now slashing .310/.344/.466 with a 128 WRC+ and two home runs to go with his two stolen bases. Duran is playing every day, he has shortstop and outfield eligibility on DraftKings for $2,500 and he adds second base to that mix at the same price on the blue site. Leody Taveras and Bubba Thompson are low-end wraparound plays from the bottom of the lineup.
Play: Nestor Cortes, some Martin Perez against the bad Yankees lineup, maybe very minor shares of contrarian Rangers bats, particularly if the slate shrinks and there are fewer options
Update Notes: Peraza slides up to second in the confirmed Yankees lineup, which runs Volpe-Peraza-Rizzo-LeMahieu-Torres then is interesting again in the eighth spot with Kyle Higashioka as a cheap catcher with a good contact profile over time. The Rangers lineup was confirmed as expected.
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