The huge 11-game MLB DFS slate gets rolling at a standard 7:05 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The slate includes a few very strong-looking spots for power and individual home run upside in our Power Index, as well as a number of very good pitching options from which to choose. The slate should afford the opportunity to play a price and popularity game with lineups, enough of the good stacks and good pitchers will end up under-owned that there are very strong angles to play to take a different tack than the public when it comes to roster shares.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Summary – 5/5/23
Boston Red Sox (+138/3.65) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-150/4.45)
The slate gets rolling with one of our top pitching options in the early game. The Red Sox are in Philadelphia to face Zack Wheeler tonight and the righty is among the top projected options in our model. Boston is not a pushover of an opponent, but Wheeler is an excellent right-hander who has a knack for limiting power, home runs, and premium contact, he is very good at taking bats out of the hands of opposing hitters. Wheeler has a 3.66 xFIP and a 3.86 ERA in his first six starts and 32.2 innings, he typically pitches deep into ballgames and should be able to chase both the win and quality start bonuses in this one. The righty has a 29.3% strikeout rate and walks just 7.9% so far this year, and he has induced a 13.4% swinging-strike rate so far in 2023. That number is up from the 11.4% he had with a 26.9% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate last year and also from the 12.4% swinging-strike rate he had with a 29.1% strikeout and 5.4% walk rate in 2021. Wheeler is a very good pitcher for $10,600/$10,200, and the Red Sox are a flawed lineup through the bottom half. Boston’s top end has been effective and overall only two hitters have been below average for run creation in the entire projected lineup, namely Enrique Hernandez who is at a 79 WRC+ over 127 plate appearances, and Triston Casas who sits 36% below average, and has struggled severely at the Major League level so far. The top four hitters in the projected Boston lineup have an average WRC+ of 134 so far this year, they have been very good and they are largely carrying this team’s offensive production. Alex Verdugo is a very good leadoff hitter who is slashing .315/.382/.515 with a .200 ISO and five home runs, he has created runs 45% better than average this year and was a few points above average each of the last two seasons. Masataka Yoshida slots in with six home runs and a .231 ISO with a 158 WRC+, he has turned into a star over the past few weeks after a slow start but production should level off somewhere in between over the longer term. Yoshida was signed to a larger-than-expected deal after being a star in NPB, he has absolutely delivered with a .317/.400/.548 triple-slash and seems involved in everything Boston has done at the plate in the last few weeks. Justin Turner and Rafael Devers hit in the prime RBI spots in the lineup. Turner has two home runs with a .103 ISO but has created runs 14% better than average and is a very sturdy veteran bat with a strong hit tool and an ability to avoid strikeouts. Devers has 11 home runs and a massive .318 ISO with a 118 WRC+ this year. The top four hitters in the lineup are also better than league average at avoiding strikeouts, they have a 13.1% average strikeout rate so far this year, with Devers’ 19.1% mark dragging the others down. Things fall off dramatically after that point, however, the final five hitters in the projected lineup have a 24.7% strikeout rate so far this year and they are comprised largely of journeymen or young players. Jarren Duran has been very good in his 68 plate appearances this year after mostly disappointing in his first opportunities the last two seasons. Duran has two home runs and four stolen bases and was a shot in the arm for the team’s offense when he arrived this year. Casas has terrific power and he has managed to barrel the ball in 8.5% of his batted-ball events with a 40.7% hard-hit rate, but he is not making much contact at a 28.3% strikeout rate and he is slashing just .159/.292/.295 with a .136 ISO. Emmanuel Valdez, Hernandez, and Reese McGuire round out the lineup, Valdez has a home run in his 33 plate appearances and is a playable cheap mix-and-match option, Connor Wong would be a better option if he catches tonight.
The Phillies are facing Chris Sale who costs $7,500/$9,200 and is in the midst of a strange season. Sale has missed significant time each of the last few years, he threw just 5.2 innings last year and 42.2 the year before. So far in 2023 he has made six starts and thrown 29.1 innings, posting a 26.1% strikeout rate with a 3.83 xFIP but a 1.47 WHIP and an unsightly 6.75 ERA. Sale has allowed a 3.73% home run rate with a 9.4% barrel rate and 89.9 mph of average exit velocity. The southpaw struck out five Guardians hitters in 6.1 innings in a good start his last time out, he allowed only three hits and one earned run. The start before that he struck out zero Orioles in five innings, allowing five earned runs on nine hits, and before that he struck out 11 Twins allowing just one earned run on three hits. The roller coaster ride seems likely to continue tonight, Sale has elite strikeout stuff on the right night and he comes very cheap on DraftKings, he should be in play as a high-end SP2 at that price, even if there is the risk of implosion. Sale is less likely to be popular at his price on the single-starter site, if he is projected to be at low popularity around the industry it enhances the appeal of going to shares of the starter. Phillies bats will also probably not be overly popular on this slate and the team is absolutely loaded with the recent return of star Bryce Harper. The outfielder has made nine plate appearances this year, he had 18 home runs with a 138 WRC+ and a .227 ISO in 426 plate appearances last year and 35 homers in 599 opportunities the year before. Harper is projected to hit third for Philadelphia, slotting in behind the starry duo of Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner, who are both excellent options in their own right. Schwarber gains value in the leadoff spot, even against a lefty, he has seven home runs this year but is creating runs two percent below average, a number that should climb quickly. Turner has created runs 17% worse than average and has three home runs with four stolen bases this year. The pair is priced way down on the FanDuel slate, they can be had for just $3,000 each, on DraftKings they are at appropriate $5,400 and $5,600 salaries. Nick Castellanos is having a strong season in a big return for form, he has an 11.5% barrel rate and a 42.5% hard-hit percentage with four home runs and a .187 ISO while creating runs 33% better than average. Castellanos is a great fourth piece in a straight-line stack, he costs just $4,700/$3,500 despite the great start to his year and a track record of similar success at the plate. JT Realmuto is a bargain where catchers are required at just $4,800, he is a very playable piece in Phillies stacks on FanDuel for just $2,800 as well. The backstop is slashing .272/.294/.466 with a .194 ISO and three home runs. Bryson Stott slides down to the six spot if Schwarber is leading off, he is a good option for a low price anywhere in the lineup. Stott has slashed .304/.331/.400 in his first 142 plate appearances this year and he should be able to get involved from the middle of the lineup ahead of bats like Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh, who would be the three and four hitters on a team like Oakland. Bohm is slashing .269/.336/.403 with three home runs, Marsh is at .326/.413/.611 with a .284 ISO and four home runs while creating runs 72% better than average in his 109 opportunities. The pair costs $3,900/$2,900 and $4,400/$3,400, they add significant flexibility to building stacks of Phillies hitters, and nine-hitter Edmundo Sosa is a value who has three home runs while slashing .294/.319/.500 and creating runs 17% better than average. The Phillies could easily hang a crooked number on Sale tonight, this is a both-sides option for MLB DFS.
Play: Zack Wheeler, Phillies stacks/bats, Chris Sale high-end SP2 on DraftKings, pricey but viable if low-owned on FanDuel
Update Notes: Raimel Tapia leads off for Boston with Verdugo getting the night off, Tapia has low-end pop and a bit of speed but this is a general downgrade to the top half. Connor Wong is in at catcher which upgrades the position and bottom of the lineup. The Phillies lineup includes the expected top six hitters but no Brandon Marsh in the final third. Josh Harrison joins Sosa and Dalton Guthrie in a low-end final three.
Minnesota Twins (-116/4.68) @ Cleveland Guardians (+107/4.42)
The Twins look like a major play for home run upside and general run creation today, six of the hitters in the team’s projected lineup are above or around the magic number of 10 in our home run model. The Twins will be in Cleveland to face righty Peyton Battenfield, who has not been good over the three starts and one relief appearance he has made in the Show. Battenfield has given up a home run in three of those four outings and his high point for strikeouts is five in a six-inning start against the Tigers. Overall, the righty has a 5.88 xFIP with a 4.67 ERA and a 3.95% home run rate and he has allowed a massive amount of premium contact. While striking out only 18.4% and walking 14.5%, Battenfield has yielded a 17.6% barrel rate with a 51% hard-hit and an absurd 94.2 mph of average exit velocity, if anything he has been lucky that more home runs have not been hit against him. The Twins lineup remains relatively inexpensive on both sites, making them a very strong MLB DFS play tonight for multiple reasons. The projected lineup opens with lefty Max Kepler who has a 10.98 in the home run model and has been a well-regarded power hitter in his full seasons. Kepler made 446 plate appearances last year and hit only nine home runs with a .121 ISO in a down season, the year before he hit 19 homers in 490 plate appearances with a .202 ISO, but he has not returned to the heights of the 36 home runs that he hit in 596 opportunities with a .267 ISO in 2019. This year, Kepler has three on the board in just 87 plate appearances and he has a .178 ISO with a 10.5% barrel rate. The lefty may hit further down the lineup but he is an option at any point for $3,700/$2,700. Carlos Correa is slashing just .206/.289/.383 with a .178 ISO and an 87 WRC+, he has four home runs and an 11.15 in our home run model on the back of significant history. Correa has a 9.9% barrel rate with a 42% hard-hit rate so far this year, which is down from the 11.4% and 44.7% he had last year, but not in severe or concerning ways, Correa will be fine, take the discount. Byron Buxton is also not as expensive as he should be, but $5,300/$3,800 is not exactly cheap. Buxton has eight home runs this year with a massive .308 ISO, he is a superstar at the plate when he is healthy and he should be in most Twins stacks, he is second on the team with a 17.1% barrel rate so far this year, trailing Joey Gallo, who sits at 25.6% but has made only 76 plate appearances. Gallo is projected to hit seventh and he makes a strong option with his price on the downswing after his very hot start. Jorge Polanco is the top bat between Buxton and Gallo, he is projected to hit fourth and has a pair of home runs on the board in his 54 opportunities since returning from injury. Polanco is an excellent and underrated player for MLB DFS purposes, he has a very good bat, power, and speed on the basepaths, he has a 9.49 in our home run model. Trevor Larnach has a 12.7% barrel rate and 42.9% hard-hit rate this season with three home runs on the board, he hit five in 180 plate appearances last year and seven in 301 tries the year before but the contact profile suggests there is more power lurking for the lefty. Jose Miranda is slashing just .220/.281/.322 with a .102 ISO and three home runs in 128 plate appearances, he was much better at .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs and a 117 WRC+ in his 483 tries last year. Miranda is an option at just $3,100/$2,800, he has an 8.84 in our home run model and is ahead of Larnach’s 7.79. Gallo slots in seventh with an 11.49 in the home run model, ranking him second on the team behind Buxton. The slugger has seven home runs and costs $4,400/$3,400 but comes with the risk of three or four strikeouts, as usual. Christian Vazquez has zero home runs this year, and Michael A. Taylor has four. The duo rounds out the lineup at cheap prices and probably low ownership on both sites, they can both bend a slate with a big power day from the bottom of the lineup but they land at team-low marks of 4.19 and 5.11 respectively in the home run model.
The Guardians will be facing right-handed Bailey Ober, who has a 22.7% strikeout rate with a 5.33 xFIP and a 1.59 ERA in his tiny 11.1-inning sample in two starts since returning from injury. Ober has been unable to stay in the rotation but he is moderately effective when he has made starts in the past, posting a 4.18 xFIP and 3.21 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate in 56 innings and 11 starts in 2022 and a 4.01 xFIP with a 4.19 ERA with a 25.3% strikeout rate in 92.1 innings in 20 starts in 2021. Ober lands in the bottom third of our pitching projections on this slate, but he is not generating massive upside for the Guardians lineup on the other side either. Cleveland has a lot of talent that has not quite come together in sustained efforts this year. When they are going right, this is a team with a deadly overall hit tool, speed, the ability to sequence and get on base, and mid-range power with one superstar bat in Jose Ramirez. The third baseman is slashing .286/.374/.454 with a .168 ISO and three home runs with five stolen bases in his 139 plate appearances this year. Those are good numbers but they are behind pace for Ramirez, who hit 29 home runs and stole 20 bases with a .235 ISO and 139 WRC+ in 685 tries last year. Ramirez costs $5,800/$3,600 and should hit third in the Guardians lineup behind Steven Kwan and Amed Rosario who are, in theory, good at getting on base and creating runs. Kwan is at a 94 WRC+ and Rosario sits at 58 this season over 144 and 118 plate appearances respectively. The catalysts atop the lineup are not helping this team score runs so far this year, which is a big part of their extended problem. Josh Naylor is struggling as well, he is slated to hit cleanup but sits at just .206/.266/.330 with a .124 ISO and only three home runs. Naylor was a popular sleeper pick in late rounds of redraft leagues and there is enough quality in his 45.6% hard-hit rate and 8.9% barrel rate so far this year that he should not be written off, but it would be nice to see the early signs of his turnaround. Josh Bell has three home runs and is slashing .211/.331/.376 with a .165 ISO, he also needs to find his power stroke for Cleveland if they are going to get this offense in gear. Bell hit just 17 home runs last year but had 27 the season before. Infielder Andres Gimenez costs $4,500/$3,000, he is slashing .236/.317/.355 with a .118 ISO and an 89 WRC+ and has been as disappointing as most of his teammates at the dish. Gimenez has not hit for any power this season, he is carrying just a 1.2% barrel rate and 24.4% hard-hit with a pair of home runs, the second baseman hit 17 homers and had a 140 WRC+ last season but that player has not shown up so far in 2023. Mike Zunino can barrel the ball against anyone if he manages to make contact, it is the elusive contact that is the trick. Zunino is a cheap catcher option for someone who can power two home runs on any given slate, but he is far from reliable. Will Brennan and Myles Straw are mix-and-match options in the final two spots in the lineup.
Play: Twins stacks/bats aggressively, minor shares of Guardians bats
Update Notes: Gallo climbs to fifth in the Twins lineup behind Kepler-Correa-Polanco-Buxton, bump to the power hitter, Larnach slides to eighth with Miranda seventh and Nick Gordon jumping into the lineup at six and Taylor getting a night off. The Guardians lineup is roughly as expected with the addition of interesting Oscar Gonzalez in the sixth spot in the lineup instead of Brennan.
Colorado Rockies (+230/3.29) @ New York Mets (-257/5.33)
The lousy Rockies are an uncomfortable name to see near the top of any list of options for MLB DFS purposes, the team is just not very good and sits at 12-20 on the young season but they place near the top of today’s Power Index which puts them in consideration for at least one-off options at low ownership. Colorado is probably not a great stacking option tonight, the team has just a 3.29-run implied total in their game against the Mets, they are just showing individual upside for home runs based on the contact that has been allowed by the opposing pitcher to this point in his young MLB career. Colorado is in Queens to face right-handed veteran of the NPB and MLB rookie Kodai Senga, who has bounced around in quality over his first five starts. Senga has a 27.4% strikeout rate but he has walked 15.4% and has a 4.15 ERA with a 4.09 xFIP and a 1.58 WHIP. The righty is allowing too many chances via the free pass, not that the Rockies are a great team to capitalize on a pitcher’s flaws. Senga has also been a bit wonky for power so far, allowing a 40.3% hard-hit rate with a 4.27% home run rate, but that comes on just a 7.5% barrel rate and 7.9-degree average launch angle allowed, he is sitting at a 27.8% home run to flyball ratio. The league average is around 9.5%, if hitters manage to elevate the ball they have been able to take it out of the yard against Senga in the very early sample. Rockies bats are never a fun click, but there are some capable veteran hitters and the entire team comes cheap on both sites in a road game against a righty. Charlie Blackmon has three home runs and a .150 ISO this year, he hit 16 home runs with a .155 ISO last year and 13 the season before, he has not been much for power in recent seasons and does see some help in his home park with the home runs he manages to hit. At $5,000 on DraftKings, Blackmon actually seems a bit expensive for his output, he is easily affordable at $2,700 on FanDuel. Jurickson Profar should be replaced in the lineup, he is slashing .211/.290/.330 with a .119 ISO and has been 44% worse than average creating runs in his 125 plate appearances, he has a 7.91 in our home run model today. Kris Bryant and CJ Cron are a pair of sturdy right-handed bats in the heart of the lineup. Bryant is slashing .309/.382/.464 and has four home runs with a .155 ISO, Cron has a .231 ISO and six home runs, and he is slashing .250/.296/.481 but his WRC+ is at just 92, putting him eight percent below league average for run creation. Cron hit 29 home runs last year and 28 the season before, he is a reliable power hitter who could definitely get on the board tonight. Ryan McMahon is another good lefty power hitter, he has four home runs this year with a .187 ISO and an excellent contact profile. McMahon carries a 19% barrel rate and 49.2% hard-hit rate over his 120 plate appearances this year. He hit 20 home runs last year and 23 the season before and is carrying a 9.37 in our home run model tonight, trailing only Bryant at 10.05, Cron at 12.94, and Randal Grichuk at 9.93. Elias Diaz has a 44% hard-hit rate and he is slashing .337/.382/.500 with three home runs in 102 plate appearances this year, he is an underrated catcher option for $4,600/$2,700. Outfielder Randal Grichukhas made just 16 plate appearances since his return from the IL, he has no home runs in the tiny sample but he did hit 19 in 538 tries last year and 22 in 545 the season before and he has a 9.93 to land third on the team. Alan Trejo and Ezequiel Tovar are lower-end options for power and they have both been well below average for run creation this season, they are mix-and-match options at best. To reiterate, the Rockies are probably not a good stack but they may hit a couple of home runs tonight.
The Mets, on the other hand, look like a very good option to stack and they should be very popular. The team is facing Antonio Senzatela who is making his 2023 debut after missing the first month with an injury. Senzatela is not an option on the mound tonight on either site, even at a $5,000 DraftKings price, he is simply not a good pitcher and he has no upside for strikeouts. The righty is feeding into strong projections for New York hitters, but he has been somewhat good at limiting home runs in his career, which impacts the team’s rating in our power index. New York is likely to get by on sequencing and run creation against Senzatela early and often before getting into a lousy Colorado bullpen. Brandon Nimmo is cheap at $4,400/$3,200 and he is involved in most things that the Mets offense does. Nimmo is slashing .302/.394/.431 and he has created runs 34% better than average over 138 plate appearances. Last year he was at the same level of run creation in 673 plate appearances while getting on base at a .367 clip, he is an excellent leadoff option and a good correlated scoring piece with the rest of the hitters in the lineup. Starling Marte has struggled to find his form in 2023, he has a 78 WRC+ and is slashing just .228/.310/.297 with one home run and a .069 ISO. The outfielder hit 16 home runs and stole 18 bases last year and was a 12/47 player the season before, he has value near the top of the lineup on any given slate and he checks in cheap for his upside tonight at $4,800/$2,800. Francisco Lindor costs $4,900/$3,700, he is too cheap on the DraftKings slate. The shortstop has five home runs and four stolen bases this year and he is slashing .212/.314/.432 with a .220 ISO while creating runs nine percent better than average. The career history suggests that Lindor should be better going forward so most of these indicators will be on the rise in the coming months, taking advantage of the discount while it is available is a good idea. Pete Alsonso is at a high price but he is also arguably slightly discounted from where he should be priced, costing just $5,800/$3,900. Alonso has an 18% barrel rate and a 42.7% hard-hit for the season that he has translated into 11 home runs and a .293 ISO over 136 plate appearances, the first baseman is one of the best power hitters in baseball. Jeff McNeil is a hit tool specialist and a good correlated scoring piece in the heart of the lineup. McNeil has second base and outfield eligibility at $4,000/$2,900, he is an easy click who can offset pricing and popularity of other bats in a stack of Mets while staying involved with reliable production, McNeil has a 134 WRC+ this year. Daniel Vogelbach has a 4.52 in our home run model, he has hit one in 74 opportunities this year and has just a .117 ISO but he has created runs 31% better than average in the tiny sample despite the power outage. Rookie Brett Baty has a 12.1% barrel rate and 57.6% hard-hit percentage in his first 49 plate appearances in the Show, he seems like a star in the making and was an apex prospect on his way up, Baty belongs in Mets stacks if he is in the lineup, he will be higher in the batting order soon. Luis Guillorme and Tomas Nido are mostly here for defense.
Play: Mets stacks/bats, Rockies stacks/bats (one-offs and secondary stacks probably better), minor shares of Kodai Senga
Update Notes: the Rockies lineup is as anticipated, the Mets have Vogelbach hitting eighth with Baty sliding up to sixth, we told you he would be higher in the order soon. Tommy Pham jumps in seventh with Guillorme not in the lineup.
Baltimore Orioles (+182/3.55) @ Atlanta Braves (-200/5.05)
The Braves will have lefty Max Fried on the mound tonight in a home start against the Orioles that sees the typically frisky offense capped at just a 3.55-run implied team total. Fried is a very good left-handed pitcher who is outstanding at limiting the power and home run potential of opposing offenses, he has a very limiting effect on the projections for Baltimore bats this evening. Fried has made four starts and thrown 20 innings this year and is yet to allow a home run while pitching to a 3.13 xFIP and a 0.45 ERA. Opposing hitters are yet to barrel a ball against him and he has allowed just a 1.5-degree average launch angle with a 25% hard-hit rate and just 83.2 mph of average exit velocity so far this year. 20 innings and four starts is a tiny sample, of course, but Fried has sustained these levels in the long term as well, in 30 starts and 185.1 innings in 2022 he allowed just a four percent barrel rate with a 7.6-degree average launch angle and 31.9% hard hits with a 1.64% home run rate, and he was at a 34.3% hard-hit rate with just 86.5 mph of average exit velocity and a 2.25% home run rate in 2021. The lefty simply does not give up power and it is rare that he gets teed up for many runs, he is a mid-range option for strikeouts with a 24.3% rate early this year and a 23.2% over the full season last year and he also has impeccable control and command, resulting in just a 4.4% walk rate and 1.01 WHIP last year. Fried projects in the top half of pitching options, even with the talented Orioles lineup on the other side. Orioles hitters are likely to be limited and underproduce today, but they are affordable if one is inclined to look in contrarian corners. There are better underappreciated assets on today’s slate however, attacking Fried with bats is not a winning proposition in most cases. Austin Hays is having a strong start to his season and is projected to lead off against the lefty ahead of fellow right-handed bats Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle, both of whom have starred for Baltimore early this year. Hays has four home runs, so does Rutschman, Mountcastle has eight, and all three hitters are above average for run creation so far. The group leads into struggling Anthony Santander who is slashing .241/.303/.398 with three home runs and a .157 ISO. Jorge Mateo and James McCann slot into the middle of the projected lineup, Mateo has been one of our favorite options all year and could provide value if he manages to get on base, but the power that he has displayed early with six home runs in 96 plate appearances is not likely to be a factor in this matchup. McCann is here for an aging reputation for quality against lefties, he is an unlikely name for MLB DFS but he is a cheap catcher at $2,800 and he does have a 51.4% hard-hit rate in 42 plate appearances this year. Gunnar Henderson may sit against a premium same-handed pitcher, Henderson has been excellent at getting on base and drawing walks this year but that is it so far, he should hit in the long term however, he was one of the top prospects in baseball coming into this season. Ramon Urias and Cedric Mullins are typically appealing to find at the bottom of a lineup, but this is not a great spot.
The Braves are a very strong option for stacking and for power tonight, the team has a 5.05-run implied team total as heavy favorites in Vegas and they are a loaded lineup against a middling pitcher. Right-handed Dean Kremer is probably in over his head in this matchup. Kremer has made six starts and has a 4.85 xFIP with a 6.67 ERA over 29.2 innings in 2023. The young hurler has allowed a 5.30% home run rate with a 42.7% hard-hit and 89.3 mph of average exit velocity on a 10.4% barrel rate to this point, last year he was better at limiting power in 125.1 innings but he had similar issues with the long ball in his 53.2 innings in 2021. Kremer has just an 18.9% strikeout rate this year, which is in line with the 17% he posted last season and the 19.2% he had in 2021, that much contact against this Braves lineup is not a great combination, while the team could feed Kremer a few extra strikeouts the odds seem likely that things flow the other way and Kremer’s contact allowed leads to run creation for Atlanta. Ronald Acuna Jr. costs $6,600/$4,600, there are 10 pitchers on the DraftKings slate who cost the same or less than the superstar outfielder. Acuna has hit six home runs and stolen 15 bases this year, a 30/50 season seems like a strong probability if he is able to stay healthy. He has created runs 75% better than average getting on base at a .445 clip ahead of Matt Olson, who has nine home runs and a .285 ISO, and Austin Riley who has six homers and a .182 ISO. Riley has slipped somewhat in recent weeks, but his power will come roaring back in short order, he should not be skipped for a brief slump. Sean Murphy has hit eight home runs and is one of the top catcher options on most slates. He has a .340 ISO and has created runs 82% better than average this year but costs just $5,000/$4,100. Murphy is another catcher who can be played like a first baseman on FanDuel. Eddie Rosario is slashing .236/.284/.416 with a .180 ISO and has been 15% worse than average for run creation with just three home runs on the board but he has an encouraging 10.8% barrel rate and costs just $2,700/$2,500. If Rosario hits fifth or sixth as projected he is a value play in Atlanta stacks that badly need one, given the prices of their stars. Ozzie Albies remains too cheap at $4,600/$3,200. The second baseman is slashing .288/.328/.576 with a .288 ISO while creating runs 35% better than average and is tied with Olson for the team lead with nine home runs. Albies is a star who is somehow a forgotten man in the Atlanta lineup for MLB DFS on a lot of nights, he is never expensive and is rarely as highly owned as his teammates, making him a fantastic option in the infield. Michael Harris II injured his knee but avoided major damage two nights ago, he is expected to return to the lineup tonight and would be an interesting value piece at $3,600/$2,600. Harris hit 19 home runs and stole 20 bases roaring onto the scene as a rookie last year. Marcell Ozuna and Vaughn Grissom round out the lineup at cheap prices, Ozuna has struggled badly in his triple-slash, sitting at just .153/.256/.375 and he has been 31% below average for run creation, but he has individual power upside with five home runs and a 13.5% barrel rate this year.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Max Fried
Update Notes: Leadoff Jorge Mateo is interesting for the Orioles, but the opportunity for a big day is still capped against Fried. Rutschman-Mountcastle-Santander-McCann-Urias-Mullins-Ryan McKenna-Henderson rounds things out. THe Braves lineup is as expected but Harris is not playing, which is a concern for the knee that was said to be OK, this is an injury to watch over the weekend. Sam Hilliard slots in as an interesting cheap bat late in the lineup, he was productive over 66 plate appearances while Harris was initially out.
Oakland Athletics (+140/4.31) @ Kansas City Royals (-152/5.30)
The Athletics are in Kansas City to help Brad Keller try to look like a fantasy baseball ace for one night. Keller is cheap and carries a low-end projection but he is facing easily the worst offense in baseball and might as well be making a AAA start tonight (which is insulting to a lot of AAA squads out there). The righty has made six starts and thrown 30.1 mediocre to bad innings this season with a 3.56 ERA but a 5.41 xFIP. He has an 18% strikeout rate that was no better at 16.5% last year and crept up to just 19.6% in 2021. Keller is reasonably adept at keeping the ball down and in the yard, he has allowed a 42.2% hard-hit rate and 91.2 mph of average exit velocity but just a 0.75% home run rate given a 4.2-degree average launch angle allowed. Against a lineup like Oakland, he seems like a fair play at just $6,600 on DraftKings with the idea that he may be able to find clean innings even if there is a lack of strikeout upside, he should also be able to book a cheap win for the price with the Royals favored and carrying a 5.3-run implied team total. Keller is not good, this would be a price and matchup-driven SP2 play at best, he is an unlikely option at $8,400 on the FanDuel slate. Athletics bats are not overly appealing, they have very little home run upside on any given slate and are further limited by Keller’s one skill in this contest. If going to Oakland bats, the obvious name is Brent Rooker, who is still sitting on nine home runs in 98 plate appearances and has a 204 WRC+ with a .367 ISO for the year. Everyone else has been bad or worse, though Esteury Ruiz now has a 101 WRC+ in the leadoff role and Shea Langeliers is an underappreciated catcher who can hit for power, he has six home runs and a 10.4% barrel rate this year. Tony Kemp, Ramon Laureano, JJ Bleday, Ryan Noda, and Jace Peterson are all low-end options and Nick Allen is worse than that.
The Royals are carrying one of the slate’s highest implied team totals in a matchup against struggling lefty Kyle Muller who lands at just a $5,200/$6,800 tonight. Muller is a highly regarded pitching prospect who has been unable to put things together at the Major League level this season and in cups of coffee in the past. He was traded from the Braves at last year’s deadline and made three starts throwing 12.1 innings in the Show overall last year, posting a 4.43 xFIP with an 8.03 ERA and a 3.39% home run rate. This year, Muller has just a 14.5% strikeout rate in 28.2 innings and six starts, pitching to a 5.21 xFIP and a 6.28 ERA and he has been lousy for premium contact. The lefty has yielded a 9.8% barrel rate with a 49% hard-hit and 91.9 mph of average exit velocity so far this year. Muller’s inability to strike Major League hitters out combined with a 10.9% walk rate and all that contact makes him a great target for Kansas City bats in this one. Bobby Witt Jr. leads off and has been nine percent below average over his 139 plate appearances in that role this year. Witt was one percent below average over an otherwise good 2022 campaign that saw him hit 20 home runs and steal 30 bases as a rookie last year, he is a good buy at $5,100/$3,100 on this slate. Vinnie Pasquantino is slated to hit third with Edward Olivares leaping into the two-spot in the lineup at a fair price. Olivares has been productive to start the year and sits at a 105 WRC+ in his 97 plate appearances. He has a pair of home runs and three stolen bases and costs just $2,700 on both sites. Pasquantino has a 51% hard-hit rate and six home runs with a 45% better than average WRC+ mark and a .246 ISO, he is a good power bat with a capable hit tool who is slashing .288/.373/.534 ahead of Sal Perez. The team’s star and power-hitting catcher costs just $4,300/$3,000, the sites have not caught up to his recent turnaround yet. Perez is up to six home runs and is slashing .268/.314/.491 with a .223 ISO and a 115 WRC+ in 1221 plate appearances after a slow start, he is another of baseball’s top catchers when he has a bat in his hands and he should be rostered enthusiastically in stacks of Royals hitters. MJ Melendez has struggled badly to start the season, he is slashing .200/.280/.371 with a 76 WRC+ and just three home runs, but he hit 18 homers last year in 534 plate appearances and has been making excellent contact when he connects. Melendez has a 15.2% barrel rate and a 57.6% hard-hit rate this year and he costs just $4,000 with catcher eligibility on DraftKings, not that we want him instead of Perez, but his outfield eligibility renders that decision moot, Melendez is still an option on the back of his sturdy contact. Maikel Garcia has made only a handful of plate appearances in the Show to this point in his career, he is cheap with multi-position eligibility at third base and in the outfield for $2,400 on DraftKings and he is a $2,100 shortstop on FanDuel. Matt Duffy, Hunter Dozier, and Jackie Bradley Jr. or most other names that would linger at the bottom of the lineup for Kansas City are less viable options tonight.
Play: Royals bats/stacks, very thin potential Brad Keller SP2 value on DraftKings with appropriately low expectations
Update Notes: the confirmed Royals lineup takes an interesting shape with Melendez leading off ahead of Olivares and Pasquantino and Witt getting a night off. Nick Pratto is very cheap with an upside for $2,500 on both sites hitting fifth ahead of Duffy-Dozier-Bradley-Maikel Garcia
Detroit Tigers (+194/3.28) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-215/4.83)
The Tigers had a frisky series sweeping the Mets earlier this week but they will be hard-pressed to continue that on the road in St. Louis tonight. The lousy offense lines up against lefty Jordan Montgomery who seems in line for a good outing this evening. Montgomery is a pitcher who is probably better in real life than his MLB DFS numbers tend to be for our purposes, but anyone can post a major upside game against this version of the Tigers, whose better bats all hit from the left side in a minor bonus to the starter. Montgomery has a 21.3% strikeout rate in six starts and 35 innings over which he has pitched to a 3.34 ERA and a 3.82 xFIP while walking just 5.3%. He is not great for swinging strikes at 9.9% and has a 27.3% CSW% but could find a few added strikeouts against this lineup. At $8,600/$9,500, Montgomery should be a fairly popular option on both sites tonight, the discount on DraftKings should push his exposures up on that site significantly but he is viable at any level of popularity. The low-end Tigers are not a great stacking option, the projected lineup features Matt Vierling in the leadoff role, the righty has a 104 WRC+ with a pair of home runs and four stolen bases in 99 plate appearances, and he was 19% below league average for run creation in 357 tries last year. Javier Baez has two home runs and a .110 ISO with an 83 WRC+, he has not been good but costs just $3,500/$2,600 and hits right-handed if we are searching for reasons to roster Tigers. Riley Greene is one of the team’s better bats, but he is at an 87 WRC+ and hits from the left side of the plate, Montgomery should not have much trouble with Greene. Eric Haase is a right-handed thumper with catcher eligibility for just $3,000, if we want a one-off from this team on DraftKings he may be the best option. Haase has just two home runs but is slashing .280/.333/.413 in his 81 plate appearances this year. Spencer Torkleson has been a massive waste of a first-overall pick to this point in his career, Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera are veterans playing out the string to low impact at the bottom of the lineup, and it is rounded out by Andy Ibanez and Zack Short, this is not a good option tonight.
The Cardinals pound left-handed pitching with regularity, the team is loaded with right-handed power hitters and excellent bats on that side of the plate and they will be facing limited southpaw Matthew Boyd, who has just a 20% strikeout rate with a 5.26 xFIP and a 5.47 ERA in five starts this year. Boyd has actually been good at limiting premium contact in 2023, giving up just a 27.3% hard-hit rate, but he is a flyball pitcher who makes to many mistakes in general, even with the lack of hard hits he has allowed a 3.64% home run rate and he is lousy for sequencing as well given his 10% walk rate this year. A pitcher who induces swinging strikes at a 13.5% clip should have better numbers, Boyd is a big target for Cardinals bats even if St. Louis is not cracking the 5.0-run mark in Vegas. Tommy Edman typically leads off against lefties, he is a good correlated scoring option with individual upside, and, oddly, he currently leads the projected lineup with five home runs. Paul Goldschmidt costs just $5,300/$3,800 which is too cheap for the first baseman in this matchup. Goldschmidt is slashing .300/.396/.500 with a .200 ISO and a 149 WRC+ with four home runs and three steals on the board so far this year, and he makes outstanding contact. The star has a 14.3% barrel rate and a 59.2% hard-hit percentage and he brutalizes lefties. Willson Contreras has hit two home runs and is slashing .284/.368/.431 with a 123 WRC+, Nolan Arenado has not been nearly as good with just two home runs of his own but a .236/.291/.317 triple-slash and a .081 ISO while creating runs 31% worse than average in an extended slow start. Arenado will come around, but his contact profile is concerning so far with just a 3.2% barrel rate and a 31.6% hard-hit mark. The third baseman is priced way down at $4,400/$2,900 in what could be a great get-right opportunity tonight. Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill bring strong bats to the middle of the lineup, though they have just three combined home runs in a slow start that has permeated this entire lineup this season. Carlson is slashing .235/.293/.338 with a 76 WRC+ in 75 plate appearances, O’Neill is at .228/.283/.337 with a .109 ISO and 73 WRC+ in 99 tries. the duo hit just eight and 14 home runs respectively last year but they were at 18 and 34 the season before, there is reason to believe at tonight’s asking prices of just $2,800/$2,400 and $3,500/$2,500, the FanDuel prices are particularly appealing. Paul DeJong, Andrew Knizner, and Lars Nootbaar round out the projected lineup. Nootbaar is a good power bat at the bottom of the lineup who could be viable as a wraparound with the idea of cheap low-owned plate appearances against right-handed relievers in play.
Play: Jordan Montgomery, Cardinals stacks/bats
Update Notes: The Tigers lineup is as expected and remains a very low-end option. The Cardinals confirmed lineup has Juan Yepez in for O’Neill, Yepez is an interesting power hitter from the right side but probably falls a bit short of O’Neill when both are in full form, but Yepez is very interesting for the minimum price with first base and outfield eligibility on the FanDuel slate, he hit 12 home runs in 274 plate appearances last season.
Texas Rangers (+123/4.48) @ Los Angeles Angels (-134/5.13)
Texas will be facing the Angels in California tonight in one of the five late games on the slate. A fairly high-end Rangers lineup is facing lefty Tyler Anderson who has been bad in his five starts in 2023. Anderson has a 5.94 xFIP and a 5.74 ERA while allowing a 5.0% home run rate and a nine percent barrel rate to opposing hitters. The flyball pitcher has made too many mistakes but he does not give up a ton of average exit velocity at just 86.9 mph and 37.1% hard-hits, it is just that the mistakes tend to be big mistakes. Anderson is not viable at $6,000/$7,200 even as a low-end dart, there are just better options. The Texas lineup is in play against him however, there are mid-range power marks for the team throughout the lineup and they will be at fair asking prices on both sites. Marcus Semien costs $5,700/$3,800 in the leadoff spot, the second baseman has five home runs and four stolen bases and has created runs 30% better than average. Semien has a .185 ISO on the back of just a four percent barrel rate and 38.4% hard-hit, he was not good for premium contact last season either, but he is very good at putting the ball in play with just a 16.1% strikeout rate and he finds enough power to be one of the better home run hitters at his position. Semien hit 26 longballs last year and 45 the season before. Robbie Grossman can steal bases and is a correlated scoring play but he has also driven the ball a bit this year, he has three home runs in 91 plate appearances with an 8.3% barrel rate. Grossman is cheap for $2,400/$3,100, he should still be viewed as a correlation play if he is hitting second, he is not a great individual contributor. Nathaniel “don’t call me Nate” Lowe and Adolis Garcia land in the middle of the lineup as two highly productive bats. Lowe has four home runs and a 118 WRC+, Garcia has eight homers and a 117 WRC+ with one stolen base and was a 27/25 player just last year. Lowe is too cheap at $4,300/$3,200, Garcia is an appropriate buy at $5,700/$4,000 who can be averaged down by including Lowe and Grossman or Lowe and Josh Jung, who also comes cheap. Jung costs $3,800/$3,700, the sites clearly see him differently this season. He has had a hot start at .275/.325/.541 with eight home runs and a .266 ISO while creating runs 37% better than average, but he does strike out 32.5% of the time. The story of Jung’s season will be told by that strikeout rate when things are said and done, but taking the discount on him on the DraftKings slate is a great approach to stacking these hitters. Jonah Heim is a good power bat at the catcher position for just $3,900/$3,600, he is a much better play for the price on DraftKings where the position is required, his FanDuel price is actually a lot but he has a 14.7% barrel rate with a 51.5% hard-hit mark and six home runs in the bag already in just 97 plate appearances this year. Ezequiel Duran has been good with regular opportunities this year, he is slashing .324/.351/.507 with a .183 ISO three home runs and two steals for just $2,700/$2,500 and he offers three-position eligibility on the blue site. Bubba Thompson and Leody Taveras offer speed from the last two spots in the lineup.
Dane Dunning has been highly effective out of the bullpen in 20.1 innings for Texas so far this season in a long relief role. The righty has a 1.77 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP that completely obscure his true nature, indicated by the 5.13 xFIP and just a 13.9% strikeout rate. Dunning will be making his first start this season, filling in for injured Jacob deGrom. He made 29 starts last year and 25 in 2021 before losing his job and moving to the bullpen this year. Dunning pitched to a 4.03 xFIP and a 4.46 ERA in 153.1 innings with a 20.4% strikeout rate and a walk problem last year, he was at a 3.87 xFIP and a 4.51 ERA the season before. The righty has had good starts from time to time and there are strikeouts in the Angels lineup, but it seems like a big ask to get him to a slate-winning score, even at $6,100 on DraftKings. He is not entirely off the board for the bold, but there has to also be the question of potential depth-of-start. The Angels lineup looks like the much better option and the home team is carrying a 5.13-run implied total tonight. Zach Neto has been up and down over his 73 plate appearances but he is a capable young hitter in the leadoff role ahead of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, which puts anyone in play as a correlation option in stacks. Trout is slashing .296/.388/.583 with a 165 WRC+ and a .287 ISO with eight home runs, Ohtani is slashing .308/.374/.547 with a 150 WRC+ and a .239 ISO, the price tags are the only concern when going to the pair of stars, they are a great option in this one. Anthony Rendon is still looking for his power, he has no home runs but has been effective nonetheless with a .266/.396/.304 triple-slash and a 107 WRC+ over 101 plate appearances. Rendon has a 41.4% hard-hit rate but just a 2.9% barrel rate for the season, he costs just $4,000/$2,900 and is unpopular most nights because of an underserved reputation. Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury are good power bats who are not priced highly at $4,900/$3,400 and $4,100/$3,000. Renfroe is a $5,000 hitter on DraftKings, take the discount and run with it, he has seven home runs and a .230 ISO with a 116 WRC+ this season. Drury is cheap for a player with multi-position eligibility and power on both sites. Taylor Ward has four home runs and a 97 WRC+ over 138 plate appearances, he was very streaky in a good year last year and needs to find his form but he is inexpensive at $3,900/$2,800 and could end up hitting back at the top of the lineup where he would be a better play in line with Trout and Ohtani. Luis Rengifo is a good low-owned inexpensive option for mid-range power in the infield and catcher Matt Thaiss rounds out the projected lineup.
Play: Angels stacks/bats, Rangers stacks/bats
Update Notes: the Angels lineup is as expected but Ward climbs to the six spot between Renfroe and Drury
Los Angeles Dodgers (-109/3.84) @ San Diego Padres (+101/3.74)
A classic pitching duel is brewing in San Diego with Yu Darvish on the mound for the home team at $9,800/$9,200 and Clayton Kershaw taking the hill for the visiting Dodgers. Darvish has made five starts and thrown 30 innings, though we are struggling to remember him on a single main slate so far this season. The right-handed veteran has a 27.4% strikeout rate with a 3.99 xFIP and a 3.60 ERA for the season and has been right on form inducing an 11.7% swinging-strike rate with a 30.8% CSW%. Darvish is underpriced for his talent but the matchup against the Dodgers is a rough one, if he is rendered lower-owned in industrywide projections it makes sense to push the edge a bit with additional shares, the starter is certainly capable of shutting down even a lineup as talented as this one. Darvish is also good at limiting upside, he has a 33.3% hard-hit rate this year with a 2.42% home run rate on only 86.7 mph of average exit velocity and has been reliably good at keeping hard hits in the mid-30% range over time. The Dodgers take a quality hit from their typical position, which should be clear from the 3.74-run implied team total. The loaded squad has viable options against any pitcher of course, and they would be an extremely contrarian position to occupy, but the prospects are not great for success in the matchup. Mookie Betts costs just $5,400/$3,700 in the rough spot, he is a star in any matchup and is leading the Dodgers in our home run model tonight. Freddie Freeman has also fallen in price to just $5,000/$3,600, getting him $1,600 less than his former teammate in Atlanta who costs $6,600 tonight shows either how discounted Freeman and Betts are, or how expensive Acuna is tonight. Freeman is slashing .310/.386/.500 with five home runs and a 139 WRC+ this year. Will Smith has four home runs in just 77 plate appearances and is one of baseball’s hardest-hitting catchers. Max Muncy has 12 home runs and a titanic .402 ISO with a 172 WRC+, he costs $5,300/$4,500 tonight. Jason Heyward and James Outman are left-handed bats who have hit the ball extremely hard this year. Heyward has four home runs and a 58.7% hard-hit rate with a 13% barrel rate for just $3,000/$2,500, Outman has hit seven home runs and has a .308 ISO for just $4,300/$3,300. Miguels Vargas and Rojas and veteran David Peralta are minor mix and match options at the bottom of the lineup.
The Padres are in a similarly winnowed position for runs at just a 3.84-run implied team total in their matchup against Kershaw. The left-handed ace has made six starts and thrown 38 innings, he has a 3.07 xFIP and a 0.76 WHIP with a 28.5% strikeout rate in the small sample. Kershaw has induced an excellent 14.9% swinging-strike rate and has a 32.4% CSW%, he is not cheap in the matchup at $10,800/$11,200 but that should render him fairly unpopular around the industry which makes him appealing for tournament play. Kershaw is never off the board when he his healthy, the Padres have several excellent hitters at the top of their lineup, but things break somewhere around the fifth spot most nights and some of their stars have been struggling badly so far this year, Kershaw could be a sneaky-good option tonight. Of course, the foursome of stars at the top of the lineup for San Diego will have something to say about his success first. Fernando Tatis Jr. has two home runs but just a 91 WRC+ in his 58 plate appearances since returning to the lineup, he is expensive facing Kershaw at $5,900/$3,800 but he is an obvious star. Manny Machado is slashing an ugly .235/.281/.378 with just a .143 ISO and an 81 WRC+ in a lousy start over 128 plate appearances, he will round into form and is a big right-handed bat, but his struggles bolster the case for Kershaw. Juan Soto has gotten on base at a .397 clip and created runs 31% better than average with five home runs and a .200 ISO but his hit tool has been slow to come around this year and was largely absent for most of last season. Soto is still excellent at the plate, he is very difficult to strike out, though his rate has jumped from 14.5% last year to 23.5% in the small 141 plate appearances sample so far in 2023. Xander Bogaerts is slated to hit cleanup, he has been the team’s most productive hitter at .291/.378/.479 with a 138 WRC+ this year and he is fairly priced at $5,000/$3,600 at shortstop, but the spot is not a good one against this pitcher. Things start to get ugly from here, Nelson Cruz is always in play against a lefty but he is not the hitter he once was. Even at .296/.311/.507 with a .211ISO and three home runs with a 120 WRC+ it is difficult to have much faith in Cruz in this spot, he has a 28.4% strikeout rate so far this year that seems likely to climb against this pitcher. Jake Cronenworth is a roughly league-average bat most nights, Ha-Seong Kim, Austin Nola, and Trent Grisham form the final third of the lineup, with Grisham’s .208 ISO and 120 WRC+ as the most appealing piece.
Play: Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, minor shares of bats on either side if desired
Update Notes: both lineups are confirmed as expected
Washington Nationals (+162/3.90) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-177/5.20)
A lousy Nationals lineup checks in as big underdogs against the Diamondbacks and Merrill Kelly tonight. Arizona’s righty starter has a 22.7% strikeout rate and a 4.75 xFIP with a 3.06 ERA this year, he is a reliably league-average pitcher with an upside for more in good matchups like this one. Kelly struck out 22% over 200.1 innings last year with a 3.85 xFIP and a 3.37 ERA and he was good at limiting power with a 2.61% home run rate, the nonthreatening Nationals lineup should be a good target for Kelly and he makes a very good SP2 value play at only $6,800 on the DraftKings slate. At $9,000 on FanDuel he is not going to be nearly as popular and offers a moderate amount of upside against this team. Our ongoing watch has just Victor Robles above average with his 116 WRC+ for the season, everyone else in Washington’s lineup has been at best seven percent below average with most players far below even that mark. In 118 plate appearances, Alex Call has an 89 WRC+ with a .120 ISO and three homers, Luis Garcia is rarely a good option at the plate, Keibert Ruiz is a talented young catcher with a .248/.315/.347 triple slash and a .099 ISO and 83 WRC+, he is projected to hit third for the Nationals tonight. Joey Meneses and Jeimer Candelario masquerade as a power core with five combined home runs in 267 combined plate appearances this year, they are both below average at 76 and 74 WRC+. Dominic Smith, Lane Thomas, and CJ Abrams are not appealing options late in the lineup and Robles hits ninth with nothing to wrap around to, this is a bad baseball team and not a good option for stacking.
The Diamondbacks are carrying one of the highest implied team totals on the slate against former punching bag Josiah Gray. After allowing three home runs in his first start and continuing a known trend, Gray suddenly has allowed just one home run in his last five outings and zero in his last three. The righty struck out six Pirates in six innings of one-run ball in his last start and he shut out the Mets over six innings while allowing four hits and striking out nine the start before that. Gray has made a notable change in his pitch mix, he is throwing his meaty fastball less and his slider more, which seemingly has had the desired result of keeping hitters more off-balance and not allowing them to square the fastball as reliably as they had been. It is entirely possible that the book will catch up to this change and hitters will figure out when the fastball is coming, several Diamondbacks are still drawing premium power marks tonight, but this is not as much of a layup spot as it used to be with Gray on the mound. This is not to say that he is a good MLB DFS option at $6,400/$8,600, but there is the idea of potential on the DraftKings slate at that cheap SP2 price at the very least. Cue the 12-run four-homer game from Arizona now that we have finally said something nice about this pitcher. The Diamondbacks are very playable with their heavy implied run total and a lineup filled with compelling bats for MLB DFS. Josh Rojas leads off at $4,500/$2,600 he has an 86 WRC+ this year but was at 108 over 510 plate appearances last year, he is a correlation play with hitters like Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll in the next two spots in the projected lineup. Marte has five home runs and a 120 WRC+ with a .248 ISO this year on the back of an 11.1% barrel rate that is way up from the 6.1% he posted last season. Marte is affordable at $5,400/$3,000 and makes an interesting option. Carroll has hit four home runs and stolen 10 bases in his 109 opportunities, creating runs 45% better than average with a .222 ISO and a 10.8% barrel rate. Christian Walker is up to seven home runs after a very slow start, the first base masher has a 15.79 in our home run model today and looks like a great option for a long ball. Walker costs just $4,500/$3,100, he is in play as a one-off at his position and he is a key part of stacking Diamondbacks hitters. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has two home runs but has clawed his way back to league average for run creation with a 100 WRC+ in his 114 plate appearances. Gurriel has a strong 47.7% hard-hit rate for the year and he is difficult to strike out, putting the ball in play and driving it with regularity is a recipe for MLB DFS point-scoring even if he is not hitting home runs. Dominic Fletcher, Gabriel Moreno, Alek Thomas, and Geraldo Perdomo make up the bottom portion of the lineup, with Perdomo as the most currently interesting option but Moreno in play as a cheap catcher. Perdomo is slashing .409/.473/.636 with two home runs and a stolen base in his 77 plate appearances while creating runs 99% better than average in the short sample, the former top prospect looks like he has arrived for real this time after an awful 2022 had cast his future in doubt.
Play: Diamdonbacks stacks/bats, Merill Kelly in small shares, more as an SP2 on DraftKings, maybe thin Josiah Gray SP2 value on DraftKings as well
Update Notes: the Diamondbacks lineup is as expected through the first four spots but Gurriel gets a night off in favor of Pavin Smith, who is an interesting left-handed bat with power for $3,400/$2,900. Fletcher-Moreno-Thomas-Perdomo closes out the lineup as expected.
Houston Astros (+121/3.32) @ Seattle Mariners (-131/3.76)
Another dynamite pitching matchup has a pair of otherwise excellent Western teams knocked down to atypical implied totals. The visiting Astros are at just a 3.32-run total in Vegas in their matchup against righty Luis Castillo who has been a force on the mound so far in 2023 and has sustained excellence over the long term. Castillo is an ace who costs $10,000/$10,500 against a tough lineup but he seems like the better play when evaluating both sides of the equation. The righty has a 28.1% strikeout rate with a 1.82 ERA and a 3.35 xFIP so far this season and he rivals Kershaw for swinging strikes at 14.4% so far this year, though his CSW% is just 28.9%. Castillo has allowed premium contact this year, his hard-hit rate sits at 49.4% with 90.7 mph of average exit velocity but just a 0.74% home run rate. He gave up far less premium contact in years past, so this is probably just a blip in a small sample, if there was a major uptick in home run production against the pitcher there would be more reason for concern. Castillo is a good buy who could be less popular than he should be against a good Astros lineup. Houston bats are a difficult ask on the other side against this pitcher and they are not priced down for the opportunity, though there are some discounts for a lack of production early in the year. Marucio Dubon has been good in his triple-slash and has stolen three bases but has just a 97 WRC+ and no power, Alex Bregman has been coming on a bit and now has four home runs but still just a .136 ISO and 98 WRC+. Yordan Alvarez has a 7.82 in our home run model to lead the team today, he has six on the year with a .253 ISO and is always in play, but the upside is thin against this starter. Jose Abreu has been lousy to start the year, he has a 46 WRC+ with no home runs and a .032 ISO. Abreu has not hit a home run since early August of last year, this is a growing concern for the former star, he is not a great option tonight. Kyle Tucker has five home runs and five steals with a 120 WRC+ but his ISO has dipped to just .167 early in the season. Tucker costs $5,800/$3,300, he is a better buy on FanDuel if one is looking for contrarian options. Jeremy Pena is the best name from the bottom half of the lineup, the shortstop has six home runs and six stolen bases this year. Corey Julks, Jake Meyers, and Martin Maldonado close out the lower-end stack tonight.
Houston will answer Seattle’s challenge with a good righty of their own in the form of Cristian Javier who is somewhat cheap at $9,700 on both sites tonight. Javier has a tough matchup against the Mariners, but the park is working in his favor and Seattle is limited to just a 3.76-run implied team total. Javier has struck out 25.2% of opposing hitters with a 4.24 xFIP and 3.48 ERA this season, but that is a dip from the 33.2% strikeout rate he had over 148.2 innings in 25 starts last year. He has allowed far more premium contact this season as well, posting a 42.7% hard-hit rate with an 11.5% barrel rate over six starts and 33.2 innings as opposed to just 33.3% hard hits and a 7.2% barrel rate in the extended sample last year. Javier is very good and his numbers will probably course-correct upward over time this year, but he is not a lock for MLB DFS production tonight, he projects in the upper-middle of the pitching slate for a good price in a bad matchup against a free-swinging team. Mariners bats are in play if chasing a low-0wned home team against a good pitcher who has given up some contact. The home run hitters are the likely targets, with Julio Rodriguez leading the way from atop the lineup. Rodriguez costs just $5,500/$3,600, he has five home runs and six stolen bases this year. Ty France and Jarred Kelenic follow in the lineup, France is more of a correlated scoring option while Kelenic has led the team so far this year and has seven home runs with a 167 WRC+. Eugenio Suarez has three homers on the board but an uncharacteristic .110 ISO and just a 97 WRC+ as his triple-slash plummets and his strikeout rate climbs. If Suarez is not able to find his power stroke soon he will be a major hole in this lineup, the third baseman did hit 31 home runs each of the last two seasons so there is more rope but the sample size is growing. Cal Raleigh and Teoscar Hernandez have 12 combined home runs, with Raleigh at five and Hernandez at seven, they have a .237 and .213 ISO respectively and make a good duo for power in the heart of the order despite their flaws when it comes to strikeouts. JP Crawford and Kolten Wong are capable but not overly compelling names late in the lineup, Taylor Trammell checks in cheap at $2,400/$2,500, he has mid-range power and a bit of speed as a young player finding his way, any of the three is an option but they should only rarely all find themselves in the same MLB DFS lineup.
Play: Luis Castillo, Cristian Javier, minor shares of Mariners bats, fewer shares of Astros bats
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (-115/4.15) @ San Francisco Giants (+106/3.94)
The Brewers are facing lefty Sean Manaea who has made four starts but thrown just 18.1 innings so far this season. Manaea has a 5.47 xFIP and 7.85 ERA and has been lousy for premium contact in his brief outings, giving up a 47.1% hard-hit rate with a 17.6% barrel rate and 91.2 mph of average exit velocity. The southpaw has not reached the fifth inning in his last three starts and has made two bullpen appearances this year. His lone good outing was a six-inning eight-strikeout start against the Royals on April 8th, he has been bad in every appearance since and has allowed a significant amount of power, the Brewers are carrying just a 4.15-run total in Vegas tonight but they may be underappreciated for MLB DFS if we get that same version of Manaea, the lefty is unpayable until we see more of his former self on the mound. Christian Yelich is projected to leadoff despite the same-handed matchup, he has four home runs and a 98 WRC+ for the season while slashing .243/.331/.383 with a .139 ISO, but as we always mention he still hits everything hard. The outfielder has a 51.9% hard-hit rate and is up to a 6.2% barrel rate so far this year and he costs just $5,200/$3,100. Willy Adames is a great right-handed power bat at shortstop, he has five home runs this year but just a .168 ISO and 91 WRC+ in 134 plate appearances. Adames hit 31 homers with a .220 ISO and 109 WRC+ in a full season last year, he is a good option for a long ball against struggling Manaea. William Contreras is another premium hitter as a catcher but he may be popular in this matchup, he costs just $2,900 and is in play on the FanDuel slate where his position is not needed. Mike Brosseau and Brian Anderson bring capable right-handed bats to the heart of the order. Anderson is an everyday player who has five home runs with a .208 ISO in his 120 plate appearances, Brosseau is a platoon specialist against left-handed pitching, he has three home runs and a .216 ISO in his 55 opportunities this year. Luke Voit has done nothing good at the plate in 59 opportunities and our dislike for the player is well-documented at this point, he costs $3,700/$2,200 and is not a great option given his struggles with premium contact, formerly his one good attribute. Voit has a 2.9% barrel rate and 34.3% hard-hit in the tiny sample, he is difficult to trust and was never very good, but as a cheap MLB DFS option we could do worse and he is viable to close a mid-lineup stack. Tyrone Taylor has sneaky cheap power later in the lineup as well, while Owen Miller and Joey Weimer are more mix-and-match level.
The Giants are facing the night’s last name-brand starter with Corbin Burnes on the bump for Milwaukee. Burnes has a 19.7% strikeout rate this year with a 4.34 xFIP and a 4.01 ERA, far off the 30.5% strikeout rate and 2.85 xFIP with a 2.94 ERA he posted last year and not nearly close to the excellent 2021 season. Burnes has lost some zip in his arsenal, his velocity is slightly down across the board, but he has been better in recent outings and has truly only had two bad starts this year in his first two outings. Burnes gave up four earned runs in five innings with just three strikeouts in his first start against the Cubs, then allowed six earned with just three strikeouts in only 4.1 innings against the Mets. Since then he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his starts and he has pitched deep into ballgames. Burnes may find his strikeout form against a free-swinging Giants lineup as well tonight, this could be a better-than-advertised pitching spot at $9,300/$10,800, FanDuel certainly seems to think so at that price. The Giants projected lineup includes the typical platoon focus, with LaMonte Wade Jr. leading off from the left side. Wade has six home runs with a .295 ISO and a 173 WRC+ in his 106 plate appearances, he has been very good for just a $3,000 salary with first base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings, he checks in for the same price on FanDuel at only first base. Thairo Estrada is 51% better than average for run creation this year, slashing .342/.400/.509 with four home runs and nine stolen bases in the process. He is pricey at $5,200/$3,500 and has probably been playing over his head, but Estrada has been productive this season and for all of last year. Joc Pederson and Mitch Haniger are a strong power core in the middle of the lineup from either side of the plate. Pederson has three home runs in 71 opportunities with a .233 ISO and 123 WRC+, Haniger missed most of the season but already has two long balls in just 27 plate appearances. He hit 39 home runs in 691 opportunities in his last fully healthy season in 2021. Michael Conforto and JD Davis have 10 combined home runs this year, with Conforto hitting four but otherwise struggling to find his form in 103 plate appearances after missing all of last year. Davis has been good in a full-time role, creating runs 30% better than average over 101 plate appearances with a .222 ISO and a 52.4% hard-hit rate. Blake Sabol is slashing .235/.288/.471 but he does have five home runs and a .235 ISO with a 105 WRC+ as a cheap catcher, David Villar has four home runs but is scuffling badly at .145/.242/.325 over 95 plate appearances, and Brett Wisely has yet to do anything, literally, over 25 plate appearances.
Play: Brewers bats/stacks, Corbin Burnes, Giants bats/stacks in smaller doses
Update Notes:
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