A big afternoon main slate gets underway at 1:35 ET on Sunday, with 11 games on DraftKings, including the early Guardians vs Mets contest, as well as the 10 games that appear on the FanDuel slate. With a Stokastic show prior to the slate, we’re in top gear and summary mode to get all of this published prior to showtime.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Summary – 5/21/23
Seattle Mariners (-106/4.83) @ Atlanta Braves (-102/4.78)
The opening game features the Mariners and Braves in a somewhat even matchup with healthy implied team totals on both sides. The Mariners are facing rookie Jared Shuster, a lefty who has made three starts and pitched to a 7.24 ERA and 6.99 xFIP with a 42.2% hard-hit rate and 91.3 mph of average exit velocity allowed. Shuster is more of a target on the mound, he is a lower-end soft-tosser who works in the low-90s with a fastball-slider arsenal. Shuster does not look like a great option against this Seattle lineup at $5,500/$6,000 given his 12.5% strikeout rate and 17.2% walk rate with the ugly contact numbers. The loaded Mariners lineup is showing upside for power and run creation today and it is somewhat surprising to see this game carrying such a tight line. The projected lineup includes JP Crawford in the leadoff role, the shortstop is a valuable correlated scoring play with his ability to get on base, he has a .377 on-base percentage and 115 WRC+ over 168 plate appearances, most of which were at the bottom of the lineup. Ty France is slashing .259/.333/.368 with a .109 ISO and 103 WRC+, he is cheap at $3,900/$3,000. Julio Rodriguez has seven home runs and eight stolen bases but he is slashing .209/.286/.384 with a .175 ISO and 90 WRC+ in a down season so far over 196 plate appearances. Eugenio Suarez has a 10.06 in our home run model, he is up to five on the season with his May looking slightly better than his April for power, but he has a long way to go to return to the premium power hitter who mashed 31 homers each of the last two seasons. Tom Murphy slots into the fifth spot in the projected lineup, he has one home run in 53 plate appearances but has just a 6.1% barrel and 30.3% hard-hit rate in the small sample. Teoscar Hernandez has provided power for this team with eight home runs and a .227 ISO with a 121 WRC+, he is cheap for those numbers and a 13.2% barrel and 48.2% hard-hit rate for the year at $3,500/$2,800. Cal Raleigh has an 11.69 in our home run model, he has hit seven this season and has a 15.7% barrel rate for just $4,700/$3,200 as a catcher. AJ Pollock and Jose Caballero round out the projected lineup, Pollock has been in a slump over his 84 plate appearances this year but has four home runs.
The Braves are facing a better pitcher in righty George Kirby, which is another reason the tight lines are surprising. Kirby has been good this season, he has a 2.45 ERA and 3.64 xFIP and is terrific at limiting free passes and curbing power. The righty has just a 20.3% strikeout rate over 51.1 innings and eight starts, but he sports an elite 2.0% walk rate and a 3.2% barrel rate with 32.9% hard hits and a 0.99% home run rate on 87.1 mph of average exit velocity allowed. Kirby is a viable option at $10,000 on FanDuel and he looks like a good play at $8,700 on the DraftKings slate. The Braves lineup is elite and hedge shares would be in order when rostering Kirby, but he has the talent to get through them while finding strikeouts this afternoon. Leadoff man Ronald Acuna Jr. is one of the best in the game, he is slashing .347/.434/.608 with a .261 ISO, 11 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 179 WRC+. Matt Olson has 13 home runs on the board already this year with a .296 ISO, a 17.1% barrel rate and a 56.2% hard-hit rate. Sean Murphy has a 20.2% barrel rate and 10 home runs in 163 plate appearances, he is one of the top catchers on any given slate for MLB DFS purposes. Austin Riley has slumped through most of the first quarter of the season, the third baseman hit 38 home runs last year and 33 the season before, he has seven in 198 plate appearances so far this year but just a .155 ISO and 100 WRC+. Eddie Rosario costs just $2,600/$2,500, he has four home runs in his ledger so far this season but just a 78 WRC+. Ozzie Albies has a .233 ISO and has created runs 12% better than average, he is a star at second base and already has 10 home runs this season but costs just $4,800/$3,300. Travis d’Arnaud is a premium hitter at the catcher position if he and Murphy are both in the lineup or he is a viable replacement if Murphy gets the day off. Orlando Arcia is an underrated cheap and unpopular option late in the lineup, he has four home runs and a .226 ISO in 92 plate appearances and closes out the lineup with scuffling Michael Harris II.
Play: Mariners bats/stacks, George Kirby, Braves bats/stacks in smaller shares
Update Notes: the Mariners lineup runs mostly as expected but Jarred Kelenic is in the lineup hitting cleanup against the lefty, which is a boost to Seattle overall. Pollock hits seventh with Murphy eighth. The Braves lineup gives Murphy a day off with d’Arnaud hitting cleanup and Marcell Ozuna checking into the seventh spot as a right-handed power option and not much more.
Chicago Cubs (+101/4.49) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-109/4.61)
The visiting Cubs will be facing highly average starter Taijuan Walker who has struck out 21.5% of opposing hitters while walking 10.5% and pitching to a 6.53 ERA but a 4.26 xFIP this season. Walker has allowed a 4.42% home run rate with an 8.9% barrel rate and 39.8% hard-hit rate for the season, he has been roughly around the same level of production, with random starts where he looks brilliant, for the past few seasons. Walker is not inept, but he is targetable with a good lineup that has power like the Cubs. Chicago’s projected lineup includes Nico Hoerner who has stolen 12 bases and has a 108 WRC+ as a good correlated scoring option atop the lineup at a high salary. Dansby Swanson is a star shortstop at a discount for $4,500/$3,200, he has just four home runs and four stolen bases but is still creating runs 18% better than average and has been strong for counting stats throughout his career. Ian Happ has four home runs and four steals as well, the outfielder is leading the team’s regulars with a 142 WRC+, he is always involved in whatever the Cubs are doing to cross the plate. Seiya Suzuki has an eight percent barrel rate and 50.6% hard-hit rate for the season with five home runs and a .202 ISO but costs just $4,100/$3,400. Patrick Wisdom has 12 home runs and a monstrous .324 ISO in 156 plate appearances with a 20.5% barrel rate this season. The masher slots in at third base on DraftKings for $4,000 and adds outfield eligibility for $3,500 on the blue site. Matt Mervis has one home run in his 49 plate appearances with a 10.7% barrel rate and 46.4% hard-hit rate since his callup, the premium prospect costs just $2,300 at first base on both sites. Christopher Morel has been outrageous since returning to the lineup, he hit another home run last night and now has seven in just 44 plate appearances with a .952 slugging percentage and a .571 ISO. Morel has power and speed and is a great option at $4,500/$4,200 with multi-position eligibility. Edwin Rios and Tucker Barnhart round out the projected lineup.
The Phillies are facing Justin Steele, a talented lefty who has been pitching well this season but costs just $8,300/$9,800 in the matchup. Steele has struck out 21.7% in 55.1 innings and nine outings this year. The southpaw has a 2.44 ERA but 4.16 xFIP for the year, while inducing an 11.3% swinging-strike rate and limiting power significantly. Steele has allowed just a 4.6% barrel rate and 24.3% hard-hit rate for the season with a 0.92% home run mark and 84.6 mph of average exit velocity, it has been very difficult to hit this pitcher hard or take him out of the ballpark. Over 119 innings and 24 starts last year, Steele limited barrels to 3.9%, hard hits to 33.3%, and home runs to just 1.56%. The Phillies are a good lineup with star power and quality from top to bottom, they are in play against this pitcher from the middle of stack rankings, but there are simply better spots available. Bryson Stott leads off, he has an 89 WRC+ over 195 plate appearances after starting hotter, he has three home runs and five steals on the season. Trea Turner has slumped to .257/.302/.390 with a .134 ISO and four home runs as we hit the quarter-pole, but his price is way down to $5,200/$2,900 at shortstop. Bryce Harper has two home runs and two steals in 66 plate appearances since his return, posting a .190 ISO and 154 WRC+ in the small sample. Nick Castellanos costs $4,00/$3,500 which is cheap for a player with a 120 WRC+ in 188 plate appearances. Castellanos has been hitting well this season in a return to form, he is slashing .299/.346/.466 with five home runs. Kyle Schwarber is a hitter with tremendous power who has 11 home runs in 191 plate appearances this season but he is slashing just .176/.314/.409. Schwarber is priced down at $4,900/$3,000 and makes a good buy when rostering Phillies. JT Realmuto is one of the top catchers in the game, the veteran is slashing .290/.321/.483 with three home runs and seven stolen bases while creating runs 13% better than average. Realmuto is a viable option at catcher in stacks or even as a one-off, but the matchup is not great. Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh are projected to hit seventh and eighth, they have had good seasons to this point, Bohm has five home runs with a 98 WRC+ and Marsh has hit four home runs with a .219 ISO while creating runs 36% better than average in 154 chances. Edmundo Sosa closes the lineup at $2,300/$2,400, he is a capable enough bat to not be priced so low at the end of the batting order, Sosa is slashing .282/.306/.427 with three home runs in 110 opportunities t his year.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks, Justin Steele, only minor shares of Phillies if any
Update Notes: the confirmed Cubs lineup has a few curveballs after the expected top four. Mike Tauchmann is hitting fifth for the minimum on both sites, the veteran quad-A outfielder has minimal power upside from the left side of the plate. Morel is hitting sixth ahead of Mervis and Miles Mastrobuoni and Barnhart. Patrick Wisdom is out of the lineup and the Cubs are downgraded somewhat. The Phillies lineup runs Turner-Castellanos-Harper-Realmuto-Schwarber-Bohm-Sosa-Josh Harrison–Daulton Guthrie, the top seven is good and the top hitters see minor upgrades from the lineup changes, no Brandon Marsh and no Bryson Stott.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-124/4.50) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+114/4.10)
The Diamondbacks are facing a talented but underperforming righty in Roansy Contreras, who has just a 16.6% strikeout rate with a 4.40 ERA and 5.40 xFIP in his eight starts and 45 innings this season. Contreras has allowed a bit of premium contact with 40.7% hard hits and an 8.6% barrel rate this year and his swinging-strike rate has dipped from 12.7% to 10.3% which is part of the drop from his 21.1% strikeout rate in 18 starts and 95 innings last season. The Pirates starter costs $7,700 on both sites, he is not unplayable on either, but there are better options and Contreras has had just one good MLB DFS outing so far this season and is somewhat difficult to trust against a productive Arizona lineup. The Diamondbacks projected batting order gets rolling with Josh Rojas who has an 80 WRC+ and five stolen bases in 148 plate appearances. Rojas created runs eight percent better than average while stealing 23 bases last season in a larger sample, but he has not been the most productive option in the leadoff role. Ketel Marte has six home runs and four steals with a 121 WRC+ in 185 plate appearances and costs just $5,300/$3,000. Corbin Carroll has a 6.10 in our home run model, he has hit six and stolen 11 bases in 169 plate appearances. The premium rookie outfielder has created runs 32% better than average for the season and he has a .205 ISO with a 9.7% barrel rate and 41.6% hard hits. Christian Walker leads the team with a 9.21 in our home run model, he is up to 11 after a slow start and has a .256 ISO. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit seven home runs, exceeding last year’s total of five and back on pace to his 2021 level of production, he hit 21 that season. Gurriel is cheap at $4,300/$3,200 in the outfield, he is projected to hit ahead of Pavin Smith who has three home runs and a 110 WRC+ in 101 plate appearances and costs just $3,100/$2,500. Dominic Fletcher has two home runs and has been raking over 69 plate appearances at .349/.388/.556 with a 153 WRC+ in the small sample. Geraldo Perdomo and Jose Herrera close the projected lineup, Perdomo is the better option after his arrival early in the season following a disastrous rookie year, but he has cooled from the hot start in recent weeks.
The Pirates’ frisky top end is facing Merrill Kelly a veteran righty who projects in the top-third of our pitching projections for this slate. Kelly has been good this season, he has made nine starts and covered 52.1 innings with a 26.6% strikeout rate while pitching to a 2.92 ERA and 3.76 xFIP with a 1.09 WHIP. He has limited home runs to 2.42% with 88.9 mph of average exit velocity on a seven percent barrel rate and 36.4% hard hits. The righty’s strikeout rate has gone up with an increase from 9.7% swinging strikes and a 26.7% CSW% to 11.8% swinging strikes and a 27.1% CSW% this season. At $9,100/$9,900, Kelly is cheap in the matchup, while they have had their days, the Pirates are down to a 99 WRC+ in the split against righties. Pittsburgh’s projected lineup has quality up top with Andrew McCutchen leading the way, the veteran outfielder has hit seven home runs and stolen four bases while creating runs 25% better than average in a nice return to his original stomping grounds to round out his career. Bryan Reynolds has six home runs and six stolen bases with a .211 ISO while creating runs 23% better than average, he is a star outfielder who costs just $5,700/$3,500. Jack Suwinski leads the team with an 8.01 in our home run model today, he has seven with five stolen bases this season and he makes premium contact regularly with a 16.7% barrel rate. Carlos Santana is having a down year at the plate, slashing just .242/.333/.373 with a .131 ISO and two home runs. Ke’Bryan Hayes has a 47.9% hard-hit rate, as we mentioned yesterday he should simply be a better hitter, after a productive Saturday at the plate he is slashing .240/.297/.359 with a .120 ISO and 79 WRC+ with just one home run and six steals. Tucupita Marcano, Ji-Hwan Bae, Josh Palacios, and Jason Delay are projected to close out the lineup with a bit of a thud. Bae is probably the most interesting option, he has two home runs and 14 stolen bases in 134 plate appearances but has created runs 20% worse than average. All four hitters are cheap on both sites, they can help offset price and popularity. Marcano has a home run and a stolen base but has not done much in a few cups of coffee at this level, Palacios is not an overly productive option at the plate, and Delay is a backup who has one home run in 64 opportunities.
Play: Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks bats/stacks, some Pirates top end
Update Notes: Pavin Smith is leading off for Arizona in an interesting change, the lineup then runs as expected with Rojas swapping into Smith’s original sixth spot in the lineup. The Pirates lineup runs as expected with Connor Joe slotting in the sixth spot and Rodolfo Castro seventh in an overall upgrade to both spots.
Detroit Tigers (+120/4.03) @ Washington Nationals (-130/4.56)
The weekend’s worst matchup continues with Josiah Gray on the mound for the home team this afternoon. Gray is keeping the Tigers in check with just a 4.03-run implied team total after the team has been closer to 5.0 the past few days in similar matchups, which speaks to the quality with which the young righty has pitched in recent weeks. After giving up three home runs in his first outing this season in what we thought was his usual style, Gray has given up just two more in his next eight starts. For the season, the righty now has a 20% strikeout rate with a 2.73 ERA but a 4.68 xFIP, he has induced a 10.6% swinging-strike rate with a 25.3% CSW% and 9.8% walk rate and just a 2.22% home run rate with a 34.6% hard-hit and 6.4% barrel rate that are significant improvements over where he has been the past two seasons. Gray is viable at $8,000/$9,200 against this terrible Tigers lineup, Detroit’s active roster is 20% worse than average creating runs against right-handed pitching this season, they are truly a terrible team. Zach McKinstry costs $3,800/$2,500 in the projected leadoff role, he is one of two players in the lineup with a positive WRC+ at 120 over his 112 plate appearances this year. McKinstry slots in at second base or the outfield on DraftKings, he is a good option in stacks of Tigers when choosing to go after the memory of Gray’s old self. McKinstry has three home runs with a .146 ISO but a sturdy nine percent barrel rate in the small sample. Javier Baez is pulling in a 12.09 in our home run model, a surprising mark for a hitter with three home runs and a .097 ISO with just 2.4% barrels and a 37.8% hard-hit rate this year. Baez was a star once upon a time, but he has not been that player for at least two years, in 2021 he hit 31 home runs with a .229 ISO and 116 WRC+ over 547 plate appearances, the shortstop is at least cheap at $4,200/$2,900. Riley Greene has four home runs and five steals with a 113 WRC+ as the team’s best hitter. He is slashing .289/.341/.422 with a .133 ISO and a 42.6% hard-hit rate over 179 plate appearances and costs just $4,700/$3,000, Greene is potentially the one truly appealing hitter in this lineup. Spencer Torkelson put another home run on the board last night, the former first-overall pick now has four on the season with a .138 ISO and has created runs 17% worse than average. Andy Ibanez checks in for $3,000/$2,400 with a 60 WRC+ over his first 62 plate appearances this year. Nick Maton is a lefty with a touch of power, he has four home runs but is slashing .154/.265/.308 with a 60 WRC+ this season. Akil Baddoo has a homer and four steals with a 93 WRC+, Eric Haase has two home runs and two steals with an 85 WRC+ in 121 chances this year, and Matt Vierling closes out the lineup with three homers and four stolen bases but a 75 WRC+.
The lousy Nationals lineup is better against left-handed pitching and they are facing a lefty who is fairly lousy himself. Joey Wentz has made eight starts and thrown 36.2 innings this season, pitching to a 6.38 ERA and 4.94 xFIP and 1.45 WHIP. Wentz has a 4.38% home run rate on 9.5% barrels with a 39.7% hard-hit rate and 89.1 mph of average exit velocity while striking out just 18.8%. The southpaw costs $5,800/$6,200 and is facing a bad team, he is not completely out of play at those prices for the very bold in large field tournaments, but he would not be on our recommended list of options. Lane Thomas has six home runs and four stolen bases with a 118 WRC+ as one of Washington’s best bats. Thomas is a righty who has hit lefties well and he costs just $3,900/$2,900. Luis Garcia is slashing .255/.301/.359 with a 79 WRC+ but he is another productive bat who is not expensive atop the lineup. Joey Meneses is a righty with a good hit tool and decent power, he has hit just two home runs with a .094 ISO this year but is slashing .287/.317/.381. Meneses costs $3,000/$2,800 at first base, he has a 48.2% barrel rate that supports the idea of more power to come, as do the 13 home runs he hit in 240 chances last year. Jeimer Candelario is not good against left-handed pitching, but Wentz is not a premium lefty. Dominic Smith has not been very good overall this season and will be facing same-handed pitching. Stone Garrett has power from the right side, he hit four home runs in 84 plate appearances last season but has just one in 83 this year. Keibert Ruiz, Alex Call, and CJ Abrams round out the projected Nationals lineup with WRC+ marks of 83, 82, and 82 in 165, 176, and 160 plate appearances.
Play: Josiah Gray in moderate doses, bats are viable but low-end on either side, Nationals are the better option between the two
Update Notes: the Tigers lineup looks as expected, the Nationals lineup has Candelario hitting second behind Thomas ahead of Meneses-Garrett-Call which is a good trio when going to this lineup and upgrades Garrett and Call slightly. Smith-Vargas-Michael Chavis-Riley Adam round out the lineup. Chavis is always interesting against a lousy lefty.
Baltimore Orioles (+171/3.63) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-188/4.98)
Right-handed ace Kevin Gausman is one of the top pitching options on the board today on both sites. The talented starter is high-priced on the blue site at $11,200, which would hopefully keep ownership down to some degree in this matchup but he comes at a significant discount on the DraftKings slate at $9,800 that will render him very popular. Gausman is worth the tax in both ownership and salary, he has been elite this season and was one of the better pitchers in the game in each of the last two. Over nine starts and 55 innings in 2023, the righty has a 34.7% strikeout rate, up from 28.3% last year and 29.3% the year before. His walk rate sits at just 4.1% which is nearly identical to last year’s excellent 3.9%, and he is pitching to a 3.27 ERA and 2.35 xFIP. The Orioles are a good team, they have a 107 WRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, but Gausman is a pitcher that can be deployed against any lineup in baseball. There is plenty of upside in the lineup for Baltimore on any given slate, but the matchup with Gausman has them pushed far down stack rankings this afternoon, they do not look like an elite option today. Cedric Mullins has power and speed, he has seven home runs and 12 stolen bases but costs $5,900/$3,800 in the bad matchup. Adley Rutschman is a top catcher, he is slashing .279/.407/.448 with a 139 WRC+ in 204 plate appearances so far this season and is always in play positionally. Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle have 18 combined home runs, Santander has a .222 ISO and 127 WRC+ with eight of them and he still costs just $4,500/$3,200 after starting the season slowly. Mountcastle costs $4,800/$3,100 at first base, he has a 99 WRC+ over 201 plate appearances. Adam Frazier has created runs eight percent better than average as a middling infield option. Austin Hays had been out to a good start with five homers and a 127 WRC+ but he has not been as productive as he was through the season’s first six weeks. Gunnar Henderson, Jorge Mateo, and Terrin Vavra are viable options late in the projected lineup, Vavra costs $2,100/$2,000, Mateo started the year like a star but has had a cold May, and Henderson is a premium prospect searching for his form at the plate.
The Blue Jays are the better side of this one, which is easy to figure from the pitching matchup and their 4.98-run implied team total this afternoon. Toronto is facing Dean Kremer who costs $6,900/$7,800 and has a 4.94 ERA and 4.78 xFIP in nine starts and 47.1 innings. Kremer has a 17.8% strikeout rate this season, essentially the same as last year’s 17% mark over 125.1 innings in 21 starts. The righty is not awful but he allows too much premium contact and does not punch holes in the lineup with the strikeout, Kremer has allowed a 3.96% home run rate on 48.3% hard hits, 11.3% barrels, and a 90.8 mph average exit velocity this year, he is targetable with Blue Jays bats and is not a strong MLB DFS option on the mound. Toronto’s projected lineup starts in usual form with struggling star George Springer, who has six home runs and seven stolen bases with an 82 WRC+ in 191 plate appearances, he is cheap at $4,200/$2,800 because of the struggles. Bo Bichette has nine home runs and a .190 ISO while creating runs 38% better than average this year, he is a star shortstop who costs $5,400/$3,700. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit seven home runs while slashing .303/.376/.497 with a .194 ISO and creating runs 42% better than average. Guerrero has a 15.1% barrel rate and 56.8% hard-hit rate and strikes out just 15.3% of the time. The top three hitters in this lineup are all striking out between 15.3% and 16.3%, which is a lot of contact to throw at a pitcher like Kremer to get things started. Lefty Brandon Belt slots into the cleanup role in the projected lineup, he has two home runs and is slashing .250/.353/.400 with a 114 WRC+ in 116 plate appearances and costs just $2,300/$2,500 in a great spot. If Belt hits in the cleanup role at those prices he is one of the best value plays on the entire slate. Matt Chapman has a 7.35 in our home run model, he has been stuck at five home runs after a quick start and is now slashing .300/.380/.500 with a .200 ISO and 144 WRC+, a lot of his numbers are poised to dip from great to good depending on today’s performance. Whit Merrifield has a ton of speed, he has stolen 13 bases in 156 plate appearances this season while getting on at a .327 clip. Merrifield has eligibility at second base and in the outfield for $3,700/$3,100, he stole 16 bases while getting on base at just a .298 clip last year, the season before he stole 40 bases in 720 plate appearances while getting on at a .317 pace. Daulton Varsho has six home runs and six stolen bases this year but just a 76 WRC+. Catcher Alejandro Kirk has just two home runs in 124 plate appearances, he hit 14 in 541 chances last year and makes for a playable catcher at cheap prices. Kevin Kiermaier costs $2,500/$2,900 and has three home runs and five stolen bases in a surprise start to his year, but he is mostly here for defense.
Play: Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays bats/stacks
Update Notes: the confirmed Orioles lineup runs as expected. The Blue Jays do have Belt hitting cleanup in a great spot, Nathan Lukes joins the lineup in the seventh spot, he has made six plate appearances in his career and costs the minimum in the outfield but he is not a highly-regarded prospect.
Milwaukee Brewers (+129/3.72) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-140/4.37)
The Brewers are not looking like a great option with their 3.72-run implied team total against the tandem of Jalen Beeks and Yonny Chirinos who Voltron their way to effective outings with Beeks opening and Chirinos coming in for bulk relief work. Neither of the pitchers has much appeal at their prices, Beeks costs $8,400/$6,800, and Chirinos $7,000/$6,600, but both are effective enough to reduce the potential value of Brewers bats. Milwaukee’s projected lineup lands fairly low in our Power Index this afternoon, the team has only a few truly appealing bats on any given slate, namely Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, and Rowdy Tellez. Those three have combined for 24 home runs, Tellez has 10 and the other two have seven each. Yelich is projected to hit third with Adames in the cleanup role, while Tellez lands later in the lineup in the seventh spot. Owen Miller opens the projected lineup, he has a 135 WRC+ in 93 plate appearances while slashing .341/.366/.500 with two home runs and four stolen bases this year. William Contreras is an affordable catcher who has a 46.9% hard-hit rate this year, though that has amounted to just three home runs and a .135 ISO. Brian Anderson and Mike Brosseau slot in against lefties, they have been mid-range options at affordable prices this year but there is not much to love in this spot. Anderson has seven home runs after getting out of the gate quickly in April, Brosseau has four home runs in 65 plate appearances and mostly appears against lefties. Tyrone Taylor is slated to hit after Tellez, he has sneaky power potential but has managed just one knock in 56 plate appearances this year. Joey Weimer has a 70 WRC+ and .146 ISO in 143 plate appearances, he has not been good.
The Rays outrageous lineup has been rolling along all season. The team is facing Freddy Peralta who disappointed badly in his last outing, giving up a home run and allowing six earned runs on six hits with four strikeouts and five walks in 5.1 innings after we spent far too much time examining his ongoing talent for doing basically the opposite of each of those things. For the season, Peralta has a 25.4% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate with a 2.54% home run rate on 87 mph of average exit velocity and a 34.9% hard-hit rate. The home runs and premium contact are up somewhat so far this season, last year he allowed just a 3.5% barrel rate and 1.89% home run rate on 31.3% hard hits and in 2021 it was a 31.1% hard-hit rate with a 2.41% home run rate and 86.6 mph of average exit velocity. Ultimately, Peralta is a good pitcher who is capable of finding strikeouts and he comes at a fair and playable price at $8,500 on DraftKings. For $10,700 on the FanDuel slate there is a bigger question mark looming over Peralta in the matchup, the Rays have been excellent all season and they are getting to good pitchers regularly. The righty will probably be lower-owned than he should be on both sites, the FanDuel price seems likely to scare away most of the public, a both-sides approach may be warranted in this matchup. The Rays got Yandy Diaz back yesterday and he immediately got back to business with another home run, he now has 11 in 172 plate appearances this season while creating runs 95% better than average and slashing .333/.436/.618 with a .285 ISO, Diaz has essentially been worth two players this season. Wander Franco has created runs 31% better than average with seven homers and 14 steals, he is a star at shortstop for $5,700/$3,800. Randy Arozarena has 10 home runs with four steals and a 165 WRC+ in 196 plate appearances, for $5,600/$4,100 he is a costly but worthwhile option in the outfield in stacks of Rays and as a one-off. Brandon Lowe has massive power with eight home runs in his ledger this season and a .226 ISO over 158 plate appearances with a 14.1% barrel rate, but he is slashing just .204/.304/.431. Harold Ramirez, Josh Lowe, and Taylor Walls have been playing over their heads all season but have also shown little sign of slowing down anytime soon. Ramirez has a 155 WRC+ in 132 plate appearances and has hit for surprising power this year, Lowe has 10 home runs and eight steals with a 174 WRC+ in 140 chances, and Walls has been possibly the most surprising with seven home runs, nine stolen bases, a 159 WRC+ and a .283 ISO. Luke Raley and Francisco Mejia close out the projected lineup, Raley is the more interesting hitter with eight home runs and a .284 ISO in 114 plate appearances on the left side of the plate.
Play: Freddy Peralta, Rays bats/stacks, both in small doses
Update Notes: Darin Ruf slots in fifth for the Brewers with Tellez sixth, Anderson seventh, and Weimer-Turang in the last two spots. The Rays flexible lineup runs as projected with Manuel Margot stepping in for Raley in the eighth spot.
Kansas City Royals (+150/4.22) @ Chicago White Sox (-180/5.51)
Did you miss Lance Lynn day earlier this week? The White Sox righty had a very effective seven-inning start for MLB DFS purposes against the Guardians, allowing just one earned run while striking out seven at a cheap price and he looks primed to repeat the trick against the free-swinging Royals today. Lynn costs just $7,300/$8,400 and looks like one of the better pitching options on either site. The righty has his critics, which is justifiable when looking only at his 6.66 ERA in nine starts and 51.1 innings. When we peel the onion and find a 3.68 xFIP and a 26.6% strikeout rate with a 12.2% swinging-strike rate from a veteran pitcher who has always been right around that level, we can quickly chalk this up as a great discount. Vinnie Pasquantino has a great bat and has struck out just 11.5% of the time this season, the other eight hitters in the projected Royals lineup have an average strikeout rate of 25.4% this season. Lynn is not a lock by any means, the righty has allowed too much premium contact and obviously has been scored upon easily so far this year, but he has a long track record and a great matchup at great pricing. Rostering Royals on the other side is not a mistake in small doses, the team has upside for power and run creation. Bobby Witt Jr. is slashing just .230/.272/.419 with an 83 WRC+ in 202 plate appearances, he has not looked like the player who was a premium rookie all of last season. Pasquantino hits second in the projected lineup, he has eight home runs and a 118 WRC+ while putting the ball in play regularly, he is a good option at $4,000/$3,200. Sal Perez is up to 10 home runs and a .252 ISO with a 130 WRC+ after roaring to life in May. The elite backstop has an 11.5% barrel rate and 49.6% hard-hit rate for the season while slashing .288/.330/.540. MJ Melendez makes excellent premium contact, he has an 11.8% barrel rate and 55.9% hard-hit rate but is slashing just .221/.299/.377 with a .156 ISO and 83 WRC+ overall. Melendez is a cheap left-handed power option for $3,500/$2,800 with catcher and outfield eligibility on the FanDuel slate. Edward Olivares and Nick Pratto slot into the fifth and sixth spots in the projected lineup, Olivares has three home runs and five stolen bases but an 81 WRC+, Pratto has been very good in his 84 plate appearances, he has two home runs and a 153 WRC+ but still costs just $2,900 on DraftKings in the outfield or at first base, he is a $3,400 option with the same positioning on the blue site. Maikel Garcia, Michael Massey, and Jackie Bradley Jr. round out the projected lineup.
The Royals will have Carlos Hernandez on the bump to start the game, but he is expected to pitch only two innings in an opener role before handing the game off to the bullpen. Hernandez last appeared against the Padres in a similar role, he struck out four of eight hitters in two clean innings. The righty is priced at $7,700/$5,500, there is not enough upside in general on FanDuel given the lack of depth, even at such a low price, and the price on DraftKings is too high to play the discount opener with strikeout potential game. White Sox hitters could be interesting in this matchup however, the team has a 5.51-run implied total that looks like a monster number compared to some of the other options on the slate and there is talent despite their season-long underachievement. Tim Anderson missed time and has just a 58 WRC+ in his 124 plate appearances, he has not been good this year but is very good in general. The star shortstop is priced down to just $4,600/$2,800 and seems very likely to be one of the more popular hitters on the slate. Andrew Benintendi has been bad this year, his 3.6% barrel rate and 28.5% hard-hit are low-end even for him, and he has created runs eight percent worse than average while slashing merely .279/.343/.352. Luis Robert Jr. has been the team’s best player, he has 12 home runs, a .285 ISO, a 13.6% barrel rate, and a pair of stolen bases while creating runs 34% better than average in 189 plate appearances. Yoan Moncada also missed a large portion of the season, he has made just 70 plate appearances but is slashing a robust .318/.357/.515 with a .197 ISO and 140 WRC+ in the small sample. Moncada has hit the ball well with a 44.9% hard-hit rate so far this year, he is a good option at just $4,400/$3,100 in the heart of the Chicago lineup. Andrew Vaughn is priced way down at just $2,600/$3,000 at first base. The slugger has not transformed immediately into a star like Chicago was hoping, but there are very good signs with the young player, who has pushed walks from 5.6% last year to 9.0% this year while slashing .234/.322/.406 with a .171 ISO and 102 WRC+. Vaughn has an 8.8% barrel rate and 48.5% hard-hit rate with five home runs on the board, he displayed similar contact last season in hitting 17 over 555 plate appearances. Gavin Sheets has a 10.28 to sit second behind Robert in our home run model, he is an interesting option from the left side for $2,500/$2,700 with eligibility in the outfield on DraftKings and adding first base on FanDuel. Yasmani Grandal is a playable catcher if he is in the lineup, he has three home runs and a .124 ISO and is back to getting on base frequently with a .364 mark. Jake Burger has mashed 10 surprising home runs in his first 99 plate appearances, he seems unlikely to hit another 10 in his next 99 but he has been good with a 185 WRC+ and a 23% barrel rate with 52.5% hard hits. Hanser Alberto closes out the lineup in fairly weak form, the best thing he has going for him is not being Elvis Andrus.
Play: White Sox bats/stacks, Lance Lynn, minor shares of Royals bats
Update Notes: the Royals have Pratto hitting second in a nice upgrade for the former first-round pick, but Pasquantino gets the day off in the change. Matt Duffy is hitting ninth as a low-end option. The White Sox are without Tim Anderson, Benintendi leads off ahead of Burger-Robert-Moncada-Grandal, the return of Clint Frazier, a well post-hype former top prospect, Sheets, Alberto and Romy Gonzalez. Frazier is interesting at $2,300 on DraftKings and does not exist on FanDuel.
Oakland Athletics (+292/3.03) @ Houston Astros (-332/5.61)
The low-end Athletics lineup is in Houston to face elite Framber Valdez a lefty who is excellent at limiting power and run creation and has Oakland in check at just a 3.03-run implied team total. Valdez has struck out 28.1% of opposing hitters this season while pitching to a 2.84 ERA and 2.57 xFIP and walking just 5.2%. The strikeouts are up and the walks are down year-over-year and Valdez is throwing more strikes with his CSW% climbing from 28.8% to 29.4% so far this season. He has allowed a 2.60% home run rate, which is slightly up in the small sample but seems very likely to normalize over time as long as he maintains his longtime ability to keep the ball down at an elite rate. Valdez has allowed just a 1.6-degree average launch angle this season, last year it was -3.6 and the year before was outrageous at -5.5. Valdez is very capable of taking the bats completely out of the hands of Oakland hitters while racking up a healthy strikeout total today, he is an elite option on this slate who should be rostered frequently as our highest projected starter. The Athletics lineup is in barely playable form in this matchup but, for a contrarian approach, one would do well to focus up top with speed demon Esteury Ruiz who could get on base with ground balls and do damage with steals, he has 23 stolen bases on the season already and is the one dangerous player in this lineup who could spark a rally for annoying but not explosive runs against Valdez. Brent Rooker has 11 home runs and has not been nearly the same player in the month of May that he was during his outlier April. Aledmys Diaz is a veteran utility man masquerading as a three-hitter in the projected lineup. Carlos Perez is a catcher with a touch of power at cheap prices but little upside for a home run against this pitcher. Jesus Aguilar, Ramon Laureano, and Shea Langeliers all offer right-handed power upside, but they are limited to home run marks of 3.38, 3.03, and 3.55 in our model today. Aguilar and Laureano both have five homers this year, Langeliers leads the group with seven. Jordan Diaz and Nick Allen close out the projected lineup.
The Astros are another terrific stack for today, but they are also likely to be extremely popular given their 5.61-run implied team total. Houston is facing James Kaprielian, who has not done much to prove that he is an MLB-caliber pitcher at this point. The righty has a 21.6% strikeout rate but a 12.9% walk rate this year while pitching to a 10.17 ERA and 6.03 xFIP. While the expected mark that focuses only on what the pitcher can control is about four runs better than his unsightly ERA, it is still an awful number and should not inspire faith. Kaprielian is a target on the mound. Jose Altuve is back atop the lineup for Houston, he has gotten out of the gate slowly in nine plate appearances over the last two days, but he hit 28 home runs and stole 18 bases last year and is a star at a limited position. Alex Bregman is cheap at $4,600/$3,100 at third base, he is up to a 100 WRC+ mark for the season with six home runs in 200 plate appearances. Yordan Alvarez has been the team’s best player and he is one of the top power hitters in baseball. Alvarez has a 12.46 in our home run model to lead the team today. The outfielder costs $6,100/$4,300 which is a fair price for a hitter with 10 home runs and a .278 ISO while creating runs 60% better than average this year. Kyle Tucker has hit seven home runs and created runs 26% better than average but his ISO is sitting at just .188 in 188 plate appearances and he has not made hard contact as regularly as last year. Tucker should be fine as the sample grows, he is a star and his price cut is welcome at $5,500/$3,100. Jose Abreu has been bad since late last Summer, his .218/.273/.259 with a .041 ISO and 48 WRC+ in 183 plate appearances over which he has zero home runs are concerning. Jeremy Pena and Chas McCormick are quality options later in the projected lineup who will probably be under-owned across the industry. Pena hit 22 home runs and stole 11 bases as a rookie last year, he has six and six this year, McCormick has four stolen bases and two home runs in just 71 plate appearances while creating runs 21% better than average with a .194 ISO in the tiny sample. Corey Julks and Yainer Diaz round out the projected lineup.
Play: Framber Valdez, Astros bats/stacks, both aggressively
Update Notes: the Athletics lineup looks largely as expected, the Astros have Abreu between Alvarez and Tucker again and Martin Maldonado is a minor upgrade at catcher and in the ninth spot.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-142/4.66) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+131/3.93)
Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty bounced back in a big way after receiving round doses of criticism for his performance in recent starts and the interview he gave on the topic. He struck out 10 Brewers over seven shutout innings while walking two and allowing just three hits in a terrific start at low ownership for MLB DFS gamers. Flaherty will be hard-pressed to repeat that trick against the Dodgers today but he is a good starter in general, despite injuries, absences, and bumps. Flaherty has a 24.3% strikeout rate with a 5.24 ERA and 4.63 xFIP with a 1.58 WHIP in 46.1 innings over nine starts this year. He has the talent to find strikeouts against teams like the Brewers, but the Dodgers are another story, the confirmed Los Angeles lineup has a current-year strikeout rate of 20.2%, and that is without star Mookie Betts, who is getting the day off. David Peralta leads off in Betts’ place, the veteran is slashing just .216/.257/.324 with a .108 ISO and 59 WRC+ in 109 plate appearances, but he is striking out just 15.6% of the time so far this year. Peralta has never been a major talent, but he is capable of posting double-digit home runs in full seasons, he is fine but the situation upgrades somewhat for Flaherty with the change at the top of the lineup. Freddie Freeman is slashing .323/.394/.554 with a .231 ISO and eight home runs while creating runs 55% better than average as one of baseball’s best first basemen but he costs just $5,000 on the DraftKings slate, which is a good discount. Will Smith is mashing this season, he has seven home runs and a .257 ISO at catcher. Max Muncy has 15 home runs and a titanic .333 ISO with a 143 WRC+ in 175 plate appearances, he has clubbed pitches with a 20.4% barrel rate this season. JD Martinez is also making outstanding contact, he has a 16.3% barrel rate and a 50% hard-hit rate for the year with six home runs and a .273 ISO. James Outman hits sixth in the confirmed lineup and costs just $4,200/$3,000 on the left side of the plate despite a 12.8% barrel rate and nine home runs in 174 plate appearances. Outman is an interesting option that has a 7.48 in our home run model and may go overlooked by the public. Miguel Vargas, Jason Heyward, and Miguel Rojas round out the confirmed lineup. Vargas has a 114 WRC+ and four home runs, Heyward has surprised with four home runs and a .220 ISO, and Rojas has been lousy in 86 opportunities.
Lefty ace Clayton Kershaw has a terrific 29.6% strikeout rate with a 3.04 xFIP and 2.52 ERA for the season. The lefty has made nine starts and thrown 53.2 innings while looking mostly elite, he is inducing a 16% swinging-strike rate with a 33.1% CSW% to put himself among the league’s best in both categories and he has been good at curbing hard hits with just a 32.8% hard-hit rate. Kershaw is still one of the best in the game when he is healthy, he costs $11,400 on the FanDuel slate, which is full freight and then some against the heavily right-handed Cardinals lineup. At $10,200 on DraftKings, Kershaw can be had at a bit of a discount. The Cardinals are very good against lefties, the team has a 127 WRC+ to rank sixth in baseball in the split and their .214 ISO sits fourth against southpaws. The projected version of the St. Louis lineup includes Lars Nootbaar in the leadoff role, but the lefty may slip or sit when the lineup is confirmed against such a good same-handed starter. Nootbaar has been good against lefties, but this is no ordinary lefty. The young outfielder costs $3,900/$3,600 which is a fair price for a hitter with three home runs, five stolen bases, and a 121 WRC+ in 146 opportunities. Paul Goldschmidt has seven home runs and seven steals with a 156 WRC+ and .210 ISO, Willson Contreras is slashing .250/.333/.415 with a .165 ISO and 110 WRC+, and Nolan Arenado finally arrived in the season and is up to .268/.313/.448 with a .180 ISO and 107 WRC+ with nine home runs after a rollicking two weeks at the plate. Tommy Edman slots into the fifth spot in the lineup but could hit in the leadoff role or later in the order as well. Edman has six home runs and six steals with a 118 WRC+ and .194 ISO this season, he is a good option at a cheap $4,000/$3,300 with second base and outfield positioning on DraftKings today and shortstop eligibility on FanDuel. Brendan Donovan slots in with second base and outfield eligibility for $2,900 on DraftKings and as a $2,600 second baseman on the blue site, he is slashing .241/.315/.331 with a .090 ISO and 83 WRC+ in 149 chances this year. Oscar Mercado and Andrew Knizner round out the projected lineup.
Play: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers bats/stacks, minor shares of Flaherty and Cardinals
Update Notes: the Dodgers lineup was confirmed in the initial draft, the Cardinals lineup does have Nootbaar leading off with Juan Yepez hitting fifth followed by Edman-DeJong-Donovan-Mercado. Yepez is a quality right-handed hitter with power, against a different lefty he would be very interesting, here is he more of a playable piece in the matchup against Kershaw.
Colorado Rockies (+181/3.77) @ Texas Rangers (-199/5.34)
The Rockies are rarely a good option, particularly when they are on the road. With lefty Andrew Heaney on the mound in a home start they are keeping that theme alive on Sunday. Heaney is a talented strikeout pitcher who can run into trouble with home runs game after game. The southpaw has a 26.6% strikeout rate in eight starts and 42 innings this year while pitching to a 4.71 ERA and 4.38 xFIP and walking too many at 10.2%. The veteran starter is capable of slicing through this lineup but he could also get tattooed by a few of the right-handed power hitters, not that there are many in the Rockies lineup. Overall, Heaney looks like a very good DraftKings option at $7,700, and he is playable at what will hopefully be somewhat reduced ownership for $9,400 on the FanDuel single-pitcher slate as well, Colorado’s active roster has a .136 ISO to rank 26th and a 72 WRC+ to rank dead last in baseball against left-handed pitching in 2023, this is a good spot for the unreliable high-ceiling lefty. With those numbers in mind, there is very little interest in Rockies bats. One choosing to take that approach would do well to focus on Kris Bryant, Grandal Grichuk, Brenton Doyle, and Michael Toglia, as well as Elias Diaz if he happens to play. Ryan McMahon has power but the same-handed matchup may render him less relevant, the other names in the lineup are much less capable. Alan Trejo is projected to hit third, he has a 34 WRC+ in 90 plate appearances this year. Jurickson Profar typically leads off, he has an 86 WRC+ in 175 plate appearances which is not typical of what you want in a leadoff hitter. Bryant hits between them, he has a 103 WRC+ and five home runs, Grichuk hits cleanup, he has a 119 WRC+ and one home run in 65 plate appearances, and Doyle hits sixth behind McMahon. Doyle has four home runs and a .262 ISO in just 64 plate appearances, the cheap outfielder is maybe the one interesting hitter in this lineup today. Toglia is slated to his seventh, the premium rookie has not done much at this level yet in his career but he is cheap. Ezequiel Tovar and Austin Wynns round out the projected lineup.
The Rangers are the third elite option for stacking on this slate, the team is carrying a 5.34-run implied total and have humongous totals in our home run model today to lead the Power Index by a wide margin. Texas’ league-leading offense is facing Connor Seabold, a non-entity of a pitcher at $5,300/$6,100 against this lineup. Seabold has a 15.3% strikeout rate and 5.48 xFIP with a 3.05% home run rate allowed in his three starts, those numbers will look worse tomorrow. The Rangers confined lineup opens as usual with Marcus Semien one of the best second basemen in baseball. Semien has a 138 WRC+ with seven home runs and seven stolen bases and he is getting on base at a .376 clip ahead of the team’s deadly power core. Semien is a great option for individual production and correlated scoring. Corey Seager has a 14.34 in our home run model, a tiny .01 behind Semien’s 14.35 mark. The left-handed star shortstop costs $5,100/$3,000, he is far too cheap in this spot for his talent. Seager has hit two home runs in his 61 plate appearances so far this year with one before his absence and one since his return last week. Nathaniel Lowe has five home runs with a 119 WRC+ while slashing .270/.348/.438 as a good part of the team’s run creation engine for just $4,400/$3,100 at first base. Adolis Garcia is an MVP contender, he has 14 home runs and a 133 WRC+ with a .289 ISO playing every day in the heart of the lineup. Garcia costs just $5,300/$4,100 in the outfield, he is too cheap by a lot on DraftKings. Josh Jung and Jonah Heim have hit for power this season, Jung has eight home runs and Heim has six and has created runs 37% better than average as an underrated catcher. Jung costs $4,800/$3,000 at third base and Heim is a $4,200/$3,800 option. Robbie Grossman provides a cheap price offset with a capable low-end veteran bat ahead of Ezequiel Duran who is having a breakout campaign so far with seven home runs, three steals, and a 143 WRC+ in 137 opportunities. Duran is slashing .315/.350/.538 with a .223 ISO this year and costs just $2,800/$2,900 while offering three-position eligibility on FanDuel. Leody Taveras has speed and has been 11% better than average creating runs from the ninth spot in the lineup.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks aggressively, Andrew Heaney
Update Notes: the confirmed Rockies lineup includes McMahon in the second spot between Profar and Bryant, followed by Grichuk-Mike Moustakas-Doyle-Trejo-Wynns-Tovar, the Rangers lineup is as expected.
Cleveland Guardians (+134/3.68) @ New York Mets (4.41)
The Guardians and Mets square off in the first game of a doubleheader that is only available on the DraftKings slate. The Mets will have Max Scherzer on the mound for the opening game, with Justin Verlander pitching the second game, it is not a good day to be a Guardians hitter. Scherzer is an elite veteran finding his footing this season. The righty has struck out just 22.4% while pitching to a 4.88 ERA and 5.31 xFIP but his 13.9% swinging-strike rate remains strong and there is plenty of reason to have faith in the starter despite a few blips for power and premium contact in six early starts and 27.2 innings. The righty costs $10,100 and is a strong option on the DraftKings slate against a Guardians lineup that has been mostly inept for much of the season. The confirmed lineup for Cleveland includes Steven Kwan, a correlated scoring option who is primarily a slap-hitter who has not gotten on base at his normal pace and has been four percent worse than average for run creation this year in the leadoff spot. Amed Rosario follows with his 73 WRC+ and .101 ISO in 169 plate appearances, he has not been good at all at the plate this season in a major disappointment in everything other than his 52.1% hard-hit rate that gives one a ray of hope. Jose Ramirez is a star but has underperformed expectations badly. Ramirez is slashing just .279/.365/.448 with four home runs and five stolen bases. Josh Naylor is up to seven home runs with a .188 ISO but still just an 87 WRC+. His 45% hard-hit rate and 7.6% barrel rate are both nice to see. Josh Bell has three home runs with a .124 ISO and 97 WRC+ he has not been great this season, Gabriel Arias has an 81 WRC+ over 70 plate appearances, and Tyler Freeman lands in the seventh spot in the lineup. Mike Zunino has not been good this season but he was a major power option at catcher two years ago when he hit 33 home runs in 375 tries, he has any-given-slate upside for power at a cheap price. Myles Straw closes the lineup, he is not typically a good MLB DFS option.
The Mets lineup is facing rookie Tanner Bibee who it would have been fun to watch face Justin Verlander given the similarities in their deliveries – Bibee deliberately mimicked Verlander’s delivery when growing up and looks just like the righty in pitcher overlays. Bibee is a high-end pitching prospect who has done well in his initial starts, he has a 25% strikeout rate with a 3.22 ERA and 4.13 xFIP while inducing a 10.1% swinging-strike rate and allowing just a 33.3% hard-hit rate in his first 22.1 innings and four starts. The righty is cheap at $8,800, he could be an effective high-end SP2 option against the underwhelming Mets, but he will have to avoid the massive power of Pete Alonso in the heart of the confirmed New York lineup. Alonso leads the slate with a 17.39 in our home run model, he has 17 already this season and looks to be on his way to a massive season. Brandon Nimmo is a very effective leadoff hitter who is difficult to strike out atop the lineup at a fair $4,600. Francisco Lindor is a scuffling star who is slashing just .235/.313/.419 with a .184 ISO but he has six home runs and four steals and is a known star who is priced down at $4,800. Jeff McNeil is a slap-hitter of a third option in the lineup, he is slashing .281/.363/.365 with a .084 ISO and 112 WRC+ but he can act as a tablesetter for Alonso who is hitting cleanup. Brett Baty has been good over 98 plate appearances since his callup, the rookie has four home runs and a 115 WRC+ with a .182 ISO so far this year. Daniel Vogelbach costs $2,200 and has a 49.2% barrel rate on the left side, he is a good option for power against the rookie today at a cheap price and what should be low ownership. Gary Sanchez returns to New York this time in a different borough, the backstop has not made a plate appearance this year, he hit 16 home runs in 471 opportunities last season while posting a very good 13.5% barrel rate and 49.3% hard-hit rate. Sanchez’s bat has always been underrated by MLB DFS gamers, he is potentially very sneaky at the $3,600 price today. Eduardo Escobar has not been good this year, but he has four home runs and a .211 ISO to round out the lineup.
Play: Max Scherzer, Tanner Bibee, Mets stacks/bats
Update Notes: both lineups were confirmed in the original draft.
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