MLB DFS: DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slate Strategy Summary – Monday 5/22/23

The seven-game Monday main slate gets underway at 7:20 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight and looks to be taking a very interesting shape. The pitching board includes one seemingly obvious ace who should be incredibly popular on both sites in a matchup against baseball’s worst lineup, but if that happens to go pear-shaped, a winning pitching score could come from almost anyone else on the slate. With a mix of several young pitchers, a bullpen game, a Coors Field game, and a few middling starters going for their teams there should be a fair amount of offense around the league tonight, so scoring at the plate should be easier to find. Getting to a broad range of hitting combinations while focusing on creating unique combinations of teams, hitters within stacks, or teams with pitching options is the approach, focusing on individual player ownership can bog down thinking in a game where the sheer number of potential combinations takes care of much of the concern about uniqueness and leverage on its own.

Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.

MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Summary – 5/22/23

Los Angeles Dodgers (+134/4.37) @ Atlanta Braves (-146/5.24)

The Braves are at home with the Dodgers in town for what should be a great series to start the week. Atlanta will open the series with veteran hurler Charlie Morton on the mound to face the elite Dodgers lineup in a spot that does not look great for the pitcher. Morton has the talent to find success against this Dodgers team, but he only projects into the middle of the pitching board at a $9,400/$10,100 asking price. Morton has pitched to a 23.8% strikeout rate with a 2.85 ERA but 4.05 xFIP over his first eight starts and 47.1 innings this season. He has a 1.37 WHIP and has allowed only a limited amount of power with a 1.94% home run rate on a 6.2-degree average launch angle and 6.6% barrel rate. Morton is throwing strikes as regularly as he did each of the past two seasons, there is virtually no change year-over-year in his 12.1% swinging-strike rate or 30.1% CSW%. If the righty comes in low-owned around the industry it probably does make sense to push a few additional shares his way, particularly where he is somewhat underpriced on the DraftKings slate. Morton has the upside and ability to post a relevant fantasy score on both sites, even against the Dodgers. Los Angeles is pulling a bit of power upside against the righty, despite how he has kept the ball in the yard this year, Morton is not invulnerable to power, he allowed a 3.85% home run rate on 42.1% hard hits and 89.3 mph of average exit velocity with a 9.5% barrel rate over his otherwise productive 172 innings last year. Mookie Betts should be back in the leadoff spot for the Dodgers after a day off on Sunday. Betts is slashing .250/.356/.512 with 10 home runs and a .262 ISO so far this year. The star has lost his infield eligibility again on DraftKings, but he retains eligibility at second base in addition to his typical outfield positioning on the FanDuel slate. Betts has an 11.8% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit for the season and is difficult to strike out at just 18.3%. That characteristic is shared by the top three hitters in this lineup, Freddie Freeman is striking out at just a 16.1% clip this year and Will Smith has been outrageous at just a 9.0% strikeout rate while walking 15.8% of the time. Freeman has hit eight home runs and has a .226 ISO and 153 WRC+, Smith missed a bit of time but has seven home runs while slashing .311/.414/.566 with a .255 ISO and 164 WRC+ in his 133 plate appearances. Max Muncy does strike out at a significant clip, he is sitting at 28.8% for the season so far, but he has also walked in 17.5% of his plate appearances and has 15 home runs with a massive .329 ISO while creating runs at 40% better than average this year. Muncy is a textbook three-true-outcomes hitter, he walks, strikes out, or blasts one over the wall. For just $5,200/$3,800 at third base, Muncy offers a 20.4% barrel rate and 44.1% hard-hit rate, and a team-leading 10.48 in our home run model tonight. JD Martinez was not expected to hit for this much power after a dip over the past two seasons. The veteran has a 17% barrel rate and 51.1% hard-hit rate with six home runs and a .266 ISO in his 137 plate appearances this year while creating runs 12% better than average. Martinez is still cheap at just $4,900/$3,200 in the heart of the projected Dodgers lineup. James Outman has power from the left side for just $4,200/$2,900, he has a 12.2% barrel rate and hit nine home runs with a bushel of them coming early in the season. Outman is still slashing .256/.343/.519 with a .263 ISO and has created runs 34% better than average over his 178 plate appearances. Miguel Vargas has been quietly better over the past few weeks, he is up to .233/.333/.420 with a .187 ISO and 109 WRC+, David Peralta has a 57 WRC+ with a .106 ISO in 113 plate appearances, and Miguel Rojas has zero home runs with a .202/.256/.238 triple slash to hurt the team’s averages over his 90 plate appearances.

Los Angeles has taken some bumps in its rotation and will have rookie Gavin Stone on the hill for just his second appearance. The highly-regarded prospect debuted in early May with a four-inning start in which he was charged with four earned runs and allowed five total on eight hits while walking two and striking out one. Stone has made eight AAA starts this season, he has a 4.77 xFIP with a 27.5% strikeout rate, last year he had a 35% strikeout rate over 96.2 innings between AA and AAA and was reasonably good at limiting power upside. The Power Index sees Stone as a bit of a target on the back of a short sample and the massive upside for power in the Braves lineup. Atlanta is looking like one of the lead teams on the board, they have a 5.24-run implied team total, the highest non-Coors total on tonight’s slate that has us wondering about the upside for Stone. At just $5,400/$7,000 the idea of value is there, but the pitcher seems unlikely to work deep into the game and it would be easy to see him getting into trouble again in this outing. Stone seems like one to wait on, despite the cheap prices, but a few DraftKings darts may not be a total mistake. Atlanta’s outrageous lineup has been featured in this space numerous times already this year and they will be back again many times between now and the end of the season, they are almost unfairly good at hitting home runs. Ronald Acuna Jr. has 11 homers and 18 stolen bases in 209 plate appearances this year. The superstar has created runs 76% better than average for the season while slashing a massive .344/.431/.600 with a .256 ISO, a 16.6% barrel rate, and a 54.3% hard-hit rate, the only thing Acuna does not do well on the field is defense and that is only for lack of effort. Matt Olson has 13 home runs to lead the Braves, he is sitting at a team-leading 15.80 in our home run model, better than half-again on top of the magic number. Acuna is right on Olson’s heels at 15.44 in the leadoff spot and catcher Sean Murphy slots in third with a 13.12 in the home run model. Murphy has already hit 10 longballs this season, he has a .289 ISO and has created runs 60% better than average as baseball’s most valuable offensive catcher over the season’s first quarter. The premium contact that the Braves establish early and often is ridiculous, after Acuna’s impressive numbers Olson has a 22.4% barrel rate and 56.1% hard hits, Murphy has a 20.2% barrel rate and 45.5% hard hits, and third baseman Austin Riley slots into the cleanup spot with a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Riley has bumped along for a few weeks now, last season he was right with the rest of his power-hitting pals at a 15.7% barrel rate and 50.8% hard hits while blasting 38 home runs with a .255 ISO, this year he has just seven and a .152 ISO in 202 plate appearances. Riley is cheap for the struggles at $4,900/$2,900 and he still carries a robust 12.36 in our home run model going into this one. Eddie Rosario is slashing .241/.273/.398 with a .158 ISO and four home runs, he has a 7.03 in the home run model as the lone dip below the magic number from the team’s core hitters. Ozzie Albies bounces back up above that level at 10.49, he has 10 home runs already as one of the top second basemen for MLB DFS purposes. Marcell Ozuna has hit eight home runs but is slashing just .204/.297/.434 and creating runs five percent below average. Orlando Arcia is a frequently forgotten friend of contrarian lineup builders from late in the Atlanta batting order. Arcia costs just $3,600/$3,000 and is never popular. He is a shortstop on DraftKings but comes with three-position eligibility between shortstop, second base, and third base, making him a dynamite way to offset pricing, popularity, and positioning throughout combinations of Atlanta hitters. Arcia is no slouch at the plate, he is slashing .310/.368/.529 with a .218 ISO and 142 WRC+ over 95 plate appearances, and he has hit four home runs this season. Last year, the infielder made 234 plate appearances and hit nine home runs while slashing .244/.316/.416 with a .172 ISO, so the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but Arcia is not a useless late lineup infielder. Michael Harris II has not gotten in gear after missing the early part of the season with an injury, over 91 plate appearances he is slashing .171/.253/.256 with a 41 WRC+ and four stolen bases, but a .085 ISO and only one home run. Arcia checks in with a 6.54 in our home run model, Harris is the low-man on the team at 5.71 but he hit 19 as a rookie last season and has a solid bat that should function well in a wraparound role for $3,300/$2,700.

Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively, Dodgers bats/stacks in smaller doses, Charlie Morton with an eye toward being above the field if he is projected low-owned around the industry, Stone is a tournament dart at $5,400 on DraftKings, but he is very unlikely to hit a ceiling score

Update Notes: the confirmed Dodgers lineup includes the expected players with Peralta hitting sixth behind Martinez and Outman landing eighth between Vargas and Rojas. The Braves confirmed lineup runs as expected.

Houston Astros (-112/3.87) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+103/3.72)

A very good pitching matchup in Milwaukee has the team totals for both the Astros and Brewers in check below 4.0 runs tonight. Houston will be facing Corbin Burnes who has struck out seven in each of his last two starts and has not been as bad for runs as some may think. Burnes has certainly not been the same pitcher that we saw over the past few seasons, in his last start he struck out seven while allowing three runs and a home run, but that game broke a six-game streak of allowing two or fewer earned runs, during which he struck out eight hitters once and five hitters three times. Burnes’ numbers are still slightly hampered by two lousy outings to start the season, he gave up four runs and struck out only three in his first game then allowed six runs while striking out three in a short 4.1-inning start in his second outing. He struck out only three in one other game, but his 5.1-inning performance was fine with two runs on three hits including a home run allowed. Overall for the season, he has just a 21.6% strikeout rate with an 8.9% walk rate, but his 12.3% swinging-strike rate and 30.1% CSW%, while down year-over-year, are still quite good. Burnes has pitched to a 3.48 ERA and 4.28 xFIP, and he has allowed just a 2.35% home run rate with a 4.8% barrel rate and 35.9% hard hits with 87.7 mph of average exit velocity. The starter is priced down to just $9,000/$9,700 against an Astros lineup that ranks a surprising 22nd with just a 95 collective WRC+ for the active roster against right-handed pitching this season. The team’s .124 ISO against righties is also very surprising, but there are several key hitters in the Astros’ lineup who have been struggling badly to start the year. Burnes has upside on this slate, more so if he is projected to be under-owned due to misperceptions about his current performance and that of the Astros lineup. When going to Houston bats in a bad spot, one would do well to be sure to include either, or both, of the team’s sturdy left-handed power hitters in the outfield. Yordan Alvarez ha been the one truly reliable Astros hitter in 2023, he is slashing .293/.387/.571 with 10 home runs, a .279 ISO, and a 162 WRC+ for the season and is projected to hit third as usual tonight with a $6,200/$4,300 price tag. The cost for Alvarez in a bad matchup is a concern that is built into rostering these Astros, while they are somewhat cheap for their talents, the overall totals add up quickly against a former Cy Young Award winner, but they are probably going to be fairly low-owned because of it. Jose Altuve is back atop the lineup for Houston, he has made 13 plate appearances and has scored a run and driven one in. Altuve is a star and a known commodity who can make value in this matchup, he costs $5,100/$3,300 which is cheap for his talent and positioning at second base. Alex Bregman has six homers with a .144 ISO and 96 WRC+, his struggles have been part of the problem for Houston overall, but he is still one of the better options among the team’s scuffling stars. Alvarez hits between Bregman and Jose Abreu who is still searching for the first home run of his 2023 campaign. Abreu is having a tragic year at the plate, he is slashing .215/.278/.256 for the season with a 50 WRC+ and .041 ISO, and hopes for a May turnaround have already turned into thoughts of June’s warm weather rejuvenating the 36-year-old first baseman; Abreu is slashing just .175/.299/.228 with a .053 ISO and 57 WRC+ this month. Kyle Tucker has also seen a dip in his typically terrific production, the outfielder has hit seven home runs and has a .184 ISO while creating runs 24% better than average, which a lot of players would sign up for right now, but that is not enough from this outfielder. Tucker had a .221 ISo and 129 WRC+ with 30 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 609 plate appearances last year, and he hit 30 home runs while stealing 14 bases in 567 chances in 2021 while posting a .263 ISO and 147 WRC+. Tucker is discounted slightly at $5,500/$3,300 but the matchup is still a bad one. Jeremy Pena has six home runs and six stolen bases, which could be a subheading in this article at this point. Pena is sitting at just 93 WRC+ at this point and has not produced over the past few weeks. Chas McCormick has two home runs and four stolen bases but his hard hit rate is an uncharacteristic 29.2% over 74 plate appearances, which at least has finally corrected his pricing to $3,500/$2,500. Corey Julks and Martin Maldonado round out the projected lineup.

The Brewers will be similarly squished down the stack rankings by the presence of Cristian Javier on the mound for the Astros. Javier has a very good 28.5% strikeout rate with a 3.25 ERA and 3.86 xFIP in 52.2 innings and nine starts this season. The righty was better last year with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 3.53 xFIP over 148.2 innings, but his 13.6% swinging-strike rate is nearly identical to last season’s 13.8%, and he is pitching to a 5.8% walk rate with just a 0.97 WHIP. Javier does not make many mistakes, but when they do they can be hit hard against the flyball pitcher, this season he has allowed a 40.7% hard-hit rate with an 11.9% barrel rate and 3.38% home runs on 89.2 mph of average exit velocity. He was much better at limiting power last season in a full sample in which he checked hard hits to just 33.3% with a 2.91% home run rate. Javier is very good on the mound and the Brewers projected lineup has a current-year average strikeout rate of 24%, which could add up to a very nice MLB DFS points total for the starter. The Brewers projected lineup has one hitter flashing significant upside for home run power, lefty Rowdy Tellez, who is projected to hit cleanup. Tellez has a 12.5% barrel rate and 40.6% hard-hit rate this year after posting a 12.9% and 45.7% that carried him to 35 home runs in 599 chances last season. This year he has already hit 11 home runs in 157 opportunities while slashing .246/.344/.522 with a .276 ISO. Tellez is cheap at $4,000/$2,800, anyone with this much power should be more expensive in general, if Javier makes a mistake to the big lefty he could bend the slate tonight. Christian Yelich is another hard-hitting lefty in Milwaukee’s lineup, he is projected to lead off and has seven home runs and 10 stolen bases this season, with a 56.2% hard-hit rate and 9.1% barrel rate. Yelich is not fully back to his MVP form, but he is already on pace to beat last season’s numbers and all signs point to an upside at $4,700/$3,200 going forward, the matchup against Javier is not ideal but Yelich is always playable. Jesse Winker has been as bad this year as Yelich has been good, he has an 84 WRC+ with zero home runs in 107 plate appearances. Willy Adames has hit eight home runs while creating runs 13% below the league average for the year. The shortstop has light-tower power but he is scuffling at just .212/.301/.382 with a .171 ISO this season. Tellez hits between Adames and right-handed catcher William Contreras, who costs $3,700/$2,900 and can provide value as a catcher when going to stacks of Brewers in a bad spot. Contreras has four home runs and a 108 WRC+ for the year while generating a 10.9% barrel rate and 48.5% hard-hit mark and striking out just 20.1% of the time. Brian Anderson has cooled to just .240/.337/.427 with a .187 ISO but he still has a 10% better-than-average mark for run creation and costs only $3,200/$2,700 with third base and outfield eligibility. Brice TurangTyrone Taylor, and Joey Wiemer round out the projected lineup, Taylor remains the more interesting hitter but no one in the group is a great option.

Play: Cristian Javier, Corbin Burnes, small doses of either stack are playable in a contrarian approach with good name value but neither matchup is good

Update Notes: downgrade to Astros bats with Mauricio Dubon in the leadoff spot for Altuve and Jake Meyers in for McCormick. Tucker and Alvarez hit 3-4 in a nice tandem. Minor bump to Burnes. Owen Miller slots in eighth between Turang and Taylor with Wiemer out of the confirmed lineup for Milwaukee.

San Francisco Giants (+135/3.90) @ Minnesota Twins (-146/4.69)

The second-rated team on the Power Index board is the interesting Giants lineup, which will be in Minnesota to face Bailey Ober and the Twins this evening. Ober is a righty who will be making his sixth start of the season, over 30.1 innings he has allowed just a 1.72% home run rate with 34.6% hard hits while pitching to a 1.78 ERA, which does not make him sound like much of a target for bats. Under the surface, Ober has allowed a 9.9% barrel rate and 89.9 mph of average exit velocity with a 4.56 xFIP, and he is a flyball-oriented starter with a 24.6-degree average launch angle allowed this year and 19.5 degrees last year. In his 56 innings and 11 starts in 2022, Ober had a similarly low 1.76% home run rate allowed, but he gave up 90.1 mph of average exit velocity and an 11.7% barrel rate. There is an upside for power against this starter that has been untapped in small samples the past two seasons, in 2021 Ober threw 92.1 innings in 20 starts and allowed a 5.28% home run rate with 89.1 mph of average exit velocity and a 9.5% barrel rate, which sounds similar to this season’s contact profile. Ober comes in at an odd price discrepancy, he is in play and will probably be somewhat popular as an $8,100 option on the DraftKings slate, he is a very different option at $10,300 on FanDuel. Ober will probably be pushed to lower ownership at that ace-caliber price, which would make him more interesting in tournament play. Despite the good marks for the Giants in our power models, there are plenty of strikeouts available in the lineup and Ober has the talent to find them while working through six clean innings, he projects like a playable option, or even a good one, on both sites tonight. The Giants lineup does not feature a hitter above the 10-mark in our home run model, but their average is pressed up the board by six hitters that land between 7.96 and 9.96. The top mark is carried by leadoff man LaMonte Wade Jr. who has seven home runs and a 155 WRC+ with a .218 ISO in 162 plate appearances this year. Wade has an 11.3% barrel rate and 41.2% hard-hit rate and is excellent at staying involved in the team’s offense even when he is not hitting one over the wall. The first baseman has a 17.9% strikeout rate and an outstanding 19.8% walk rate while slashing .258/.425/.476, he is an asset against right-handed pitching. Thairo Estrada has created runs 30% better than average and has hit six home runs with 12 stolen bases this season, he is a strong play in the infield but costs $5,700/$3,700 as by far the team’s most expensive hitter today. Estrada has earned the salary and teammates like Wade are inexpensive ($3,200/$2,900) so it is easy to combine Estrada with any other hitters in this lineup, everyone else on the DraftKings slate is priced at or below $3,800 on DraftKings, and $3,300 on FanDuel. JD Davis has eight home runs with a .209 ISO and 135 WRC+ over 161 plate appearances and he sports an excellent 52.5% hard-hit rate in the heart of the lineup at a cheap price. Michael Conforto has eight home runs and has created runs exactly at league average while barreling 10.4% of his batted-ball events and posting a .188 ISO in 161 chances. Conforto has not found his hit tool since returning from an extended absence, he is slashing just .210/.317/.399 but the power is nice against a righty and he should hit more going forward. Conforto has a 9.60 to rank second on the team in our home run model today. Mitch Haniger has an 8.79 in the home run model, he has hit just two this season in 79 plate appearances but he is another player who has missed a significant amount of time between last year and the start of this season. Haniger hit 39 home runs in 2021, he is a star power hitter when he is healthy, as evidenced by his 54.7% hard-hit rate in his small sample so far this year. Mike Yastrzemski costs $3,800/$3,100 in the outfield, the lefty has five home runs with a .200 ISO and 108 WRC+ so far this season. Casey Schmitt has multi-position eligibility at a cheap price on the DraftKings slate, he has two home runs and a .213 ISO in 47 plate appearances since his callup and is pulling in a 5.61 in our home run model. Blake Sabol has hit five home runs with a .191 ISO and 121 WRC+ in 102 plate appearances as a sneaky-good cheap catcher option from this team. Sabol has a 10.9% barrel rate and 43.6% hard-hit rate this year, he is an option for $3,400/$2,800 with catcher and outfield eligibility on both sites tonight. Brandon Crawford costs $2,500 at shortstop on both sites, the veteran is slashing just .161/.232/.310 with a .149 ISO and 50 WRC+ but has hit four home runs in his 95 plate appearances.

The Giants will have John Brebbia on the mound for an inning or two to start the game in an opener role before he hands off to what will likely be a full bullpen game, but could be a bulk relief appearance for lefty Sean Manaea, who has been very bad so far this season and would enhance the upside for the Twins lineup. There is not a playable pitching option on the Giants’ side of the game tonight. The Twins projected lineup opens with one of our favorites, masher Joey Gallo, who has 11 home runs while slashing .211/.328/.578 with a gargantuan .367 ISO and 144 WRC+ in 128 plate appearances so far this season. Gallo has a 21.2% barrel rate and 60.6% hard-hit rate and has always been far better at the plate than he is given credit for, as we have discussed many many times in this and other spaces over the years. Gallo is extremely cheap at $4,100/$3,000 with outfield eligibility on both sites and adding first base on the blue site. Carlos Correa is slashing just .206/.298/.388 but he has a 12.3% barrel rate and 45.1% hard-hit rate with a .182 ISO and six home runs amidst the struggles, we continue to believe in a turnaround for the All-Star shortstop, he is also very cheap at $4,300/$2,900 tonight. Alex Kirilloff has three home runs with a .273 ISO in 52 plate appearances this year as yet another inexpensive hitter in the projected lineup’s top half. He hits ahead of star outfielder Byron Buxton who costs $5,400/$3,500 and has nine home runs in the books in 180 plate appearances in 2023. Buxton has a 12.5% barrel rate and 41.5% hard-hit rate for the year, both of which are down significantly from the 16.4% and 50.2% he posted last year. The outfielder remains a star and has still created runs 29% better than average despite slashing just .235/.344/.484. Edouard Julien should get regular opportunities while Jorge Polanco is out with a hamstring injury. Julien is one of the Twins’ top prospects, he hit a pair of home runs in his 36 plate appearances early in the season and could be a sneaky option in the heart of the lineup if he plays at just $2,700/$2,500. Kyle Farmer has been hot over 81 plate appearances with three home runs and a .315/.370/.466 triple-slash while creating runs 35% better than average. We know Farmer is not that level of hitter, but he does have mid-range power, he hit 14 home runs in 583 chances last year and 16 in 529 tries the season before. Trevor Larnach has a 3.88 in our home run model, but he carries a 13.9% barrel rate and 45.6% hard-hit rate into tonight’s game and has hit five home runs in 152 plate appearances. Christian Vazquez and Michael A. Taylor round out the lineup, Taylor has five home runs but an 83 WRC+ in 122 plate appearances, and Vazquez is yet to homer this season and has a 65 WRC+ with a .029 ISO in 114 chances behind the plate.

Play: Giants bats/stacks, Bailey Ober, Twins bats/stacks as a good value option

Update Notes: the confirmed Giants lineup sees some changes, with Estrada taking a seat, Yastrzemski moving up to second between Wade and Davis, Conforto hitting cleanup with Sabol-Schmitt-Patrick Bailey-Crawford-Brett Wisely closing things out. This is a downgrade to the bottom half of the lineup, but a bump to Yaz and a nice configuration of the team’s top five if they are giving Estrada the day off. The confirmed Twins lineup has Julien leading off with Gallo getting the night off. Correa-Kirilloff-Buxton-Farmer-Willie CastroDonovan Solano-Taylor-Vazquez follows.

Detroit Tigers (+101/4.24) @ Kansas City Royals (-110/4.36)

The lousy Tigers are facing underperforming Brady Singer in Kansas City tonight in a matchup where something does not necessarily have to give. That is the unique aspect of baseball when it comes to MLB DFS, Singer could easily post an irrelevant start while still limiting the Tigers to irrelevant performances at the plate, despite both sides of the equation being lousy. At the same time, both sides are lousy so either could put up a monster game. This is the fun and often frustrating nature of baseball slates, neither Singer nor the Tigers lineup is out of play tonight, but arguments to fully fade either are easy to conjure. Singer has a 7.09 ERA and a 4.58 xFIP this season while striking out just 19.4% in 45.2 innings and nine outings. The righty has allowed a 3.40% home run rate on 11.6% barrels and a ridiculous unsustainable 59.2% hard-hit rate with 94 mph of average exit velocity. When hitters have connected with Singer this year the ball has been hit extremely hard, and they have been connecting with him often. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ active roster has an 81 WRC+ collectively against righties to rank 28th out of baseball’s 30 teams so far this year. The team’s collective .113 ISO also ranks 28th, and the 23.3% rate at which they strike out in the split is tied for the 10th-worst. This is a targetable matchup that has yielded significant fantasy scores to pitchers who are worse than Singer this year, with the idea that Tigers bats will probably be somewhat popular against him, and with a fair amount of reluctance, we think Singer is the better side of the equation if someone has you loaded into a cannon with threats of shooting you into space if you fail to choose a side. Ideally, rostering neither may be the smarter play. The Tigers’ projected lineup includes two hitters who have been better than average for run creation this season, one of whom is leadoff man Zach McKinstry who sits at 124 to lead the team. McKinstry has made 117 plate appearances this season, he has three home runs and six stolen bases while slashing .273/.371/.414 with a .141 ISO and an 11.1% barrel rate. In 185 plate appearances in 2022, McKinstry slashed .199/.273/.361 with five home runs and seven stolen bases while creating runs 21% worse than average. In 172 opportunities in 2021 he created runs 23% worse than average with seven home runs and slashed .215/.263/.405. Minor outbursts of productivity are not unfamiliar for this hitter, but overall he is probably limited to more around his previous production. Javier Baez was last productive in 2021, this season he has three home runs and three steals with a 71 WRC+ in 173 plate appearances. Riley Greene is the team’s other productive hitter, he is also going to be on the left side of the plate against the floundering righty, which gives him the idea of upside. Greene costs just $4,700/$3,000, he has a 110 WRC+ in 184 plate appearances over which is he slashing .282/.337/.412 with four home runs and five stolen bases. Spencer Torkelson has four home runs and a .134 ISO and has created runs 19% worse than average, though his 48.1% hard-hit rate and 9.2% barrel rate stand out against what he has managed to produce so far as possibly a good sign. Andy Ibanez lands fifth in the lineup, he has one home run in 67 plate appearances despite an 11.3% barrel rate and 56.6% hard-hit rate, his .125 ISO shows that it is not always exclusively about making good contact. Nick Maton has a 3.41 in our home run model and he costs $2,800/$2,300 at third base on DraftKings and with second base eligibility added on FanDuel. Maton has hit five home runs to lead the team so far this season, he has a .174 ISO and has created runs 28% worse than average while slashing .165/.277/.339, this is not a good baseball team. Akil BaddooEric Haase, and Matt Vierling round out the projected lineup. Baddoo was good for mid-range power and speed in 2021, he hit 13 home runs and stole 18 bases but has not done much at this level since. Haase was also good in 2021, he hit 22 home runs in 381 plate appearances with a 100 WRC+ that year and managed 14 home runs and a 112 WRC+ in 351 plate appearances in 2022. The cheap catcher is a viable bat late in the lineup and should probably hit fifth or sixth instead of eighth on this version of the Tigers. Vierling has hit three home runs and stolen four bases but has a 79 WRC+ in 148 plate appearances.

Over six starts and 34 innings, Michael Lorenzen has an 18.6% strikeout rate with a 3.44 ERA and 4.20 xFIP. The righty has been better than his opponent at limiting power, he has allowed a 2.14% home run rate on 89.9 mph of average exit velocity with a 7.7% barrel rate and 38.5% hard hits in the small sample, but he posted similar numbers in 97.2 innings and 18 starts last year. Lorenzen is a mid-range option on the somewhat short slate, he and Singer project right next to one another in the middle of our pitching board, but the Royals’ lineup is probably our preferred option among the four corners in this game. Rostering Lorenzen at $7,800/$8,800 is by no means a mistake, he has enough to get the points he needs and potentially a few more against the free-swinging Royals, but he could conceivably run into trouble with some of the better hitters in the lineup. Bobby Witt Jr. leads off for Kansas City, he costs $5,400/$3,400 and has seven home runs and 13 stolen bases in the books already this season. The counting stats keep Witt in play, as does his position in the lineup and on the field, but he has been 20% below average for run creation despite his many talents so far this season. Ultimately that just means there is more to come from the player, he belongs in most stacks of Royals bats. Vinnie Pasquantino got the day off on Sunday but the productive hitter should be back tonight. Pasquantino is difficult to strike out, he is the team’s best pure hitter with just an 11.5% strikeout rate this season while slashing .257/.342/.469 with a 119 WRC+ over 200 plate appearances. Sal Perez has 10 home runs with a .246 ISO and 125 WRC+ to lead the team. The star backstop is always in play as a catcher in stacks or as a one-off, he has tremendous power in any matchup and is sporting a team-leading 7.32 in our home run model. While that falls below the magic number in our home run model, Perez has a 12.1% barrel rate and 49.2% hard-hit rate this season and is not far removed from his massive 48 home run campaign in 2021. MJ Melendez has hit four home runs and has just a .152 ISO but his 11.5% barrel rate and 55.8% hard-hit rate support the idea of significantly more production to come. Melendez is cheap at $3,700/$2,800 and he still has eligibility at catcher on FanDuel in addition to his shared outfield positioning. Edward Olivares has an 80 WRC+ in 140 plate appearances but he can create MLB DFS points with mid-range power and speed, he has three home runs and five stolen bases this year. Former first-round pick Nick Pratto has been a featured hitter in this space since his callup 88 plate appearances ago, so far he has rewarded us with a .329/.420/.487 triple-slash and two home runs while creating runs 54% better than average in the tiny sample. Pratto has eligibility at first base and in the outfield for just $2,900/$3,300 and has gained popularity on recent slates. Maikel GarciaMichael Massey, and Jackie Bradley Jr. could be better at the bottom of the lineup, the group has an average current-year WRC+ of 43 over 296 collective plate appearances.

Play: Royals bats/stacks, Brady Singer, Tigers bats/stacks, Michael Lorenzen, or none at all, in that order of preference

Update Notes: the Tigers lineup runs McKinstry-Greene-Baez-Torkelson-Maton-Baddoo-Vierling-Haase-Zack Short adding another low-end infielder to the mix. The Royals lineup drops Witt to the sixth spot in an interesting configuration that gives a nice bump to Pratto who jumps to the leadoff role. Pasquantino-Perez-Melendez-Massey-Witt-Nicky Lopez-Bradley-Garcia follows Pratto in the confirmed lineup, Lopez is a low-end option that replaces a better one with Edward Olivares taking a seat tonight.

Miami Marlins (-110/5.90) @ Colorado Rockies (+101/5.73)

Two other bad teams will go at it in Coors Field, with the Marlins and Rockies squaring off in the hitter’s haven. In 31 seasons since their inception, the visiting Marlins are 2,181-2,554, a .461 winning percentage but two World Series crowns. The Rockies were created the same year – it was a fun expansion in 1993, we all got “cool” (90’s cool) gear from one team or the other as kids – in their 31 seasons, Colorado is 2,220-2,523 for a .468 winning percentage, but they have won no titles. If it seems like we’re stalling because we don’t want to discuss pitchers at this ballpark, you’ve been here before. Chase Anderson is on the hill for the home team, he is pushing oddsmakers and a 5.9-run implied team total in the other direction. The favored Marlins lineup is the more likely option in this matchup, Anderson has not pitched much over the past few seasons and when he has it has not been pretty, even at $6,500/$6,300 there is no compelling reason to roster the pitcher. The Marlins lineup is showing marginal upside for power, outside of Jorge Soler, who is one of the slate leaders with a 16.94 in our home run model. That mark essentially doubles the two next-highest ratings in our model, the 8.95 and 8.80 held by Garrett Cooper and Peyton Burdick later in the lineup. Soler is projected to hit second, the slugger has 12 home runs and a .271 ISO with an 18.8% barrel rate and 47% hard-hit rate so far this year, he is a terrific option when going to what will be a popular Marlins stack. Soler is projected to hit behind Jon Berti, who led the league with 41 stolen bases in 404 plate appearances last year but has only seven in 144 plate appearances this year. Berti is creating runs eight percent below average while slashing .280/.324/.364, he needs to get on base more often to retain relevance. Luis Arraez should lead off for this team, he is slashing .382/.437/.478 with a .096 ISO and a two percent barrel rate with a 20.1% hard-hit rate, those numbers belong ahead of the team’s main power hitter not behind him. Cooper has three home runs in 127 plate appearances with a .127 ISO and 83 WRC+, he has not been great but does have a 46.3% hard-hit rate to support his mark in the home run model today. Bryan De La Cruz is slashing .284/.321/.445 with a 110 WRC+ and five home runs this season, he is one of the team’s better hitters and costs just $3,700/$3,400 at Coors Field tonight. Burdick is projected to hit behind Joey Wendle, but should probably move up a spot in the lineup. Wendle is slashing .143/.200/.262 in just 45 plate appearances, he was a .259/.297/.360 hitter with an 87 WRC+ in 371 tries last year. Burdick has a home run in his 37 opportunities this season, he hit four in 102 tries last year. Jacob Stallings and Xavier Edwards round out the projected lineup, if Edwards plays he is very interesting as a $2,700/$2,900 option at second base or in the outfield on DraftKings but only at second on FanDuel. Edwards has 80-grade speed and is a fairly well-regarded hit-tool and steals prospect, if he gets on base he will be running and he could create MLB DFS points in bunches tonight.

The Rockies are facing Edward Cabrera, who checks in for just $8,300/$7,800 despite a 30.1% strikeout rate on the season. Cabrera has had issues on the mound despite the terrific strikeout results, he has also walked 16.4% of opposing hitters, which is wildly unsustainable even with his ability to punch holes in a lineup. The righty has made nine starts and thrown just 40.1 innings, he does not provide reliable depth and is pitching to power with a 3.28% home run rate on 42.3% hard hits and a 9.3% barrel rate. Cabrera has a 5.13 ERA but a better 3.98 xFIP for the season, he is talented and there is a path to success, but the ballpark and lack of depth are problematic for MLB DFS upside even at a fair price. If no one else is doing it, a few – and we mean few – Cabrera darts against a terrible team might be worth the effort. The play, oddly, might be better at his lower FanDuel price, but the path to a quality start bonus is the width of an eyelash. The Rockies lineup is, naturally, in play against a pitcher who affords opposing teams as much opportunity via the free pass as this one does. While they are not good and rank 24th in the league with an 89 WRC+ against right-handed pitching, despite playing half their games at Coors Field, there are playable hitters in the Rockies lineup and they will likely be the lower-owned of the two similarly-totaled teams in this game. Charlie Blackmon costs $5,000/$3,300, which is getting up there for a correlated scoring player who has just a 104 WRC+, but he is definitely a part of most of our Rockies stacks tonight. Jurickson Profar is projected to hit second but he should not. Profar has an 87 WRC+ with five home runs while slashing .248/.330/.401 in 180 plate appearances. Kris Bryant is slashing .288/.366/.411 but his ISO is sitting at a disappointing .123 and he has created runs just three percent better than average this season. Bryant is cheap for his talent at $5,100/$3,300. Elias Diaz and Ryan McMahon are a good lefty-righty combination in the heart of the lineup. Diaz has been a nice surprise for the team this season, he is slashing .326/.381/.455 with a 115 WRC+. McMahon hits from the left side for power, he has a 12.5% barrel rate and 49% hard-hit rate this year, with four home runs in the books. Randal Grichuk has hit one home run in 69 plate appearances since returning to the lineup but he has remained productive with a 128 WRC+ in the small sample. Harold Castro is slashing .289/.309/.368 with a 68 WRC+ in 82 opportunities, prospect Michael Toglia is projected to hit eighth, he has not been productive at this level yet but is expected to hit in the long term, and Ezequiel Tovar closes out the lineup with a 48 WRC+.

Play: bats bats bats, annnnnnd maybe a smidge of Edward Cabrera for the ballsy

Update Notes: the confirmed Rockies lineup gives Grichuk a day off, with Brenton Doyle taking his place and hitting seventh. Doyle has power upside with a 17.5% barrel rate and 41.5% hard-hits and four home runs with a .262 ISO in 68 plate appearances this season. The Marlins shake things up from what we wanted but at least figured out that Arraez goes in front of Soler. The lineup runs Berti-Arraez-Soler-Cooper-De La Cruz-Jean Segura-Wendle-Stallings-Garrett Hampson, downgrade to the bottom of the lineup with Hampson instead of Edwards and Seugra instead of Burdick but it is still a Coors game.

Boston Red Sox (-102/4.78) @ Los Angeles Angels (-106/4.83)

The Red Sox are facing 26-year-old veteran righty Jaime Barria in his first start and 11th appearance of 2023. Barria has been in and out of the Los Angeles rotation for several years since debuting with 129.1 innings at just age 21 in 2018. He has made both starts and bullpen appearances in subsequent seasons but has pitched entirely in a bullpen role so far in 2023 and made just one start in 35 games in 2022. The righty typically does go three to four innings in his relief appearances, so five innings would not be entirely out of the question tonight, but it seems difficult to expect more than that or a quality start bonus from the pitcher who costs just $5,500 on the FanDuel slate. Barria is also probably unlikely to pay off his hefty $7,900 salary on the DraftKings slate, though he has been pitching well enough to warrant the salary if we could confidently say he was getting five innings. Barria has a 1.96 ERA and 3.77 xFIP in 23 innings out of the pen this season. He has a 23.3% strikeout rate and an 11.3% swinging-strike rate with a 28.7% CSW%, all of which are healthy marks, but he will have to manage pitch effort and exertion slightly more if he is going five innings as opposed to three. The Red Sox are also not a great matchup for a pitcher, there is plenty of talent in the top half of the lineup that they could easily ruin Barria’s day. Alex Verdugo is a very productive leadoff hitter who has created runs 31% better than average and can contribute individual scoring upside as well as providing excellent correlation with teammates in stacks. Verdugo has five home runs and three stolen bases while slashing .296/.373/.475 with a .179 ISO over 201 plate appearances. Masataka Yoshida is slated for his second, he has a 138 WRC+ and .191 ISO with six home runs and three stolen bases. Yoshida went on a terrific run after a slow start and has now settled in with steady production, he is slashing .303/.382/.493 and has a 44.1% hard-hit rate for the year. The outfielder can produce between Verdugo and an inexpensive Justin Turner in the third spot in the lineup. Turner has hit five home runs and has a 118 WRC+ for the year but he costs just $3,600/$3,000 at first base on DraftKings with third base added on FanDuel. Rafael Devers has 13 home runs and a .280 ISO, he is no stranger to MLB DFS regulars. The third baseman is a major power hitter, he has a 14.8% barrel rate and 52.1% hard-hit mark for the year, outpacing the rates that carried him to 27 home runs last season. Devers are affordable at $5,900/$3,900, given the ceiling involved. Jarren Duran has three home runs and a .202 ISO with a 147 WRC+ after a hot start that has since cooled somewhat. Duran is slashing .330/.385/.532 in 122 opportunities, his next 100 will be telling. Triston Casas has hit six home runs but has been largely inept at the plate otherwise and is sitting 16% below the average for run creation. Casas is playable in the matchup but like the pizza that arrived at our house upside down over the weekend, he has not been what the Red Sox ordered over the first 148 plate appearances of his season. Enrique Hernandez is slashing .239/.298/.348 with a 74 WRC+ in 171 plate appearances, the veteran has not been very good at the plate this year. Emmanuel Valdez has been productive with a 126 WRC+ over 65 plate appearances. The rookie costs just $2,800/$2,700 and is an easy way to offset price and popularity while providing what is possibly already a better bat than what Hernandez wields. Reese McGuire has zero home runs but a .306/.333/.361 triple-slash in 77 plate appearances, we continue to prefer Connor Wong when it comes to Red Sox catchers for MLB DFS.

The Angels are facing Tanner Houck, who has pitched to a 5.48 ERA and 3.96 xFIP over his first eight starts and 42.2 innings in 2023. Houck has a 21% strikeout rate with an 8.3% walk rate and 1.31 WHIP for the season but has been good for strikes with a 12.2% swinging-strike rate and 29.6% CSW% that are around the marks he posted in better strikeout outings in a hybrid long relief and four starts role last season. Houck was good at keeping the ball down last year, he allowed just a 1.21% home run rate on a 4.5-degree average launch angle and 4.9% barrels in 60 innings last year, but this season he has given up 2.76% home runs on a 10.3-degree average launch angle and seven percent barrel rate. While those marks will correct over time, that is a very fine line when the pitcher is also allowing a 41.4% hard-hit rate and 90.6 mph of average exit velocity, and doubly so when he is facing a lineup that includes Mike TroutShohei Ohtani, and Hunter Renfroe. Houck has some upside at $7,500/$8,200, he can be played against the free-swinging Angels lineup and if he is inducing groundballs there is a path to a good outing, if he is not it probably won’t be a problem for him for very long, the Angels have significant power. The projected lineup includes Taylor Ward in the leadoff spot, but the Angels may opt for former first-overall pick Mickey Moniak, with Ward landing later in the batting order. Ward has slumped to .227/.303/.320 with a 74 WRC+ in 195 chances this year and may be in danger of losing his job soon with the Angels also getting Jared Walsh back in the fold. Trout is projected to hit second with Ohtani third and Renfroe in the cleanup spot, the trio has hit 31 combined home runs with Ohtani at 11 and an even split between the other two. The Angels loaded outfield offers plenty of upside, they can be combined with Brandon Drury who should be back in the lineup after a day off. Drury has seven home runs with a .218 ISO and 45.5% barrel rate with eligibility at first base and second base for just $3,800/$2,700. Walsh is projected to hit sixth, he costs just $2,300/$2,100 at first base, he hit 15 home runs in 454 plate appearances while creating runs 22% below average last year but had a great 2021 with 29 home runs, a .232 ISO, and 127 WRC+ in 585 plate appearances. Walsh adds a much-needed lefty power bat to this lineup if he gets going, he is extremely cheap for MLB DFS purposes if he plays. Gio UrshelaMatt Thaiss, and Zach Neto round out the projected Angels lineup, Luis Rengifo would be preferred to any of them if he appears. Thaiss has been a productive catcher in 84 plate appearances, he is inexpensive and has a 118 WRC+.

Play: Red Sox bats/stacks, Angels bats/stacks, maybe some Tanner Houck value in small doses

Update Notes: the Angels confirmed lineup does in fact have Moniak in the leadoff role at a very nice $2,600/$2,000 salary – this is a significant bargain on FanDuel ahead of Trout-Ohtani-Renfroe-Walsh-Drury-Thaiss-Rengifo(!)-Neto with Ward out of the lineup. This is a great version of the Angels lineup, if Houck doesn’t find some groundballs this could be a killer spot. The Red Sox lineup runs as expected from 1-6 with Valdez-Pablo Reyes-Wong closing things out and Hernandez taking a seat. Reyes has just an average hit tool as a cheap infielder, Wong has a nice cheap power bat at catcher with four home runs in 106 plate appearances supported by a nine percent barrel rate and 43.3% hard hits.

Oakland Athletics (+277/2.90) @ Seattle Mariners (-314/5.22)

The Athletics should be getting a productive capable left-handed power bat with a touch of speed upside back in the lineup tonight, with Seth Brown finally returning from injury to meet the team in Seattle. Brown may or may not play tonight, but his return is imminent, he might be better off waiting until a game that does not have Luis Castillo as the opposing pitcher of course. The right-handed ace has a 3.31 ERA and 3.45 xFIP over 51.2 innings in nine starts this season while striking out 27.8% and pitching exactly to form. Catsillo has a 13.9% swinging-strike rate and 28.6% CSW% which are both nice leaps from the 11.7% and 23.3% he posted while striking out 27.2% last season. Castillo threw 150.1 innings in 25 starts last year and pitched to a 2.99 ERA and 3.23 xFIP, he is a top starter in baseball and his projection easily leads the pitching slate tonight against the worst lineup in the league. At $9,200/$10,500 Castillo will be justifiably popular on a fairly short pitching slate, he is the best option by a wide margin against this team in his pitcher-friendly home park, there is no reason to avoid rostering Castillo at or above whatever the field may be projected for when it comes to popularity. The Athletics lineup, on the other hand, has the mere presence of Castillo on the mound to dissuade one from wanting to roster them in large shares. The team’s season-long underperformance is another compelling reason to avoid them. From a game theory perspective, an argument can certainly be made for a few contrarian shares against what should be the slate’s most popular pitcher by far, while it is unlikely it is certainly not impossible for the Athletics to bend a number against the starter tonight. The trick is figuring out which of their lousy options would do the trick. Esteury Ruiz has stolen 24 bases at the quarter-pole and seems to have a legitimate desire to swipe 100 for the season. If Ruiz manages to get to that lofty total, and this is a massive if, he would join only Maury Wills, Lou Brock, Vince Coleman, and Rickey Henderson on the list of players to achieve the feat since 1900. Coleman’s 109 in 1987 was the last time baseball saw someone steal 100 bases. Ruiz costs $3,500/$3,400, if he gets on base he will be running. Ryan Noda has a 140 WRC+ that ranks second on the team, he will be first soon as he passes Brent Rooker on the way down. Noda is slashing .221/.399/.425 with a .204 ISO and four home runs, Rooker is down to .284/.391/.567 with the same 11 home runs he had on May 13th. Our continued focus on this hitter’s massive downside sees him now at .219/.313/.370 with a .151 ISO and 98 WRC+ while striking out 31.3% of the time since the calendar flipped to May. Brown is slated to hit cleanup if he plays, he hit one home run and stole a base before suffering an injury after just 32 plate appearances, last season he hit 25 home runs and stole 11 bases in 555 productive plate appearances while posting a 116 WRC+ and .214 ISO as the team’s best player. Brown is cheap at $3,300/$2,500, if one is rostering Athletics he should be included if he plays. Shea Langeliers is a productive catcher who has seven home runs and a .189 ISO at a cheap price. The projected lineup rounds out with Jace PetersonRamon LaureanoTony Kemp, and Nick Allen, if we flipped Laureano and Peterson that would be the order in which their talent diminishes, none of them is a good option tonight.

The Mariners lineup is also going to be crushingly popular tonight in probably the best non-Coors matchup on the slate. Lefty Kyle Muller has been rated a top-100 prospect at times, but he has struggled badly in his opportunities at the Major League level, including his nine starts and 42 innings this season. Muller has a 7.71 ERA and 5.22 xFIP with a 3.41% home run rate and 50.3% hard-hit rate allowed. He has yielded an 11.3% barrel rate and 92.3 mph of average exit velocity with a 10.7-degree average launch angle that is very much a target for Mariners’ power. Muller does not look like much of an option, but $5,000 is an affordable mid-level hitter price on DraftKings, which could possibly push the idea of a few low-end SP2 points on a short slate in Muller’s direction. The play would be very thin and probably has no substance at $6,700 on FanDuel, but it could be viable in very small doses on DraftKings. The Mariners lineup is the much more likely option. JP Crawford leads off as an affordable shortstop with a correlated scoring upside for $3,300/$2,800. He has a 110 WRC+ for the season and gets on base frequently enough to provide good correlation with the power behind him in the lineup, though he will be in a same-handed matchup that diminishes his quality. Ty France is slashing .253/.327/.360 with a .107 ISO and just two home runs in a disappointing start after a productive 2022 in which he hit 20 home runs and created runs 27% better than average. Julio Rodriguez has also been a letdown so far this year, he has seven home runs and eight steals but is slashing just .204/.280/.376 with an 86 WRC+ over 200 plate appearances. Jarred Kelenic has excellent numbers for the year but has had a somewhat cooler May. The outfielder is slashing .257/.297/.443 with a .186 ISO and 107 WRC+ since the calendar flipped to May after posting a 171 WRC+ with a .308/.366/.615 triple-slash and .308 ISO in March and April. Kelenic hit his ninth home run in his last outing and could get rolling against Muller tonight, his power suffered in same-handed pitching matchups in the early part of his career, but this season he is slashing .325/.357/.650 with a .325 ISO and 179 WRC+ with three of his nine home runs in 42 plate appearances against fellow southpaws. Kelenic has figured things out at the plate, he is very much an option in this matchup, more so if he gets skipped for the perception of weakness against a lefty. Eugenio Suarez has a 10.3% barrel rate and 45.7% hard-hit rate for the year, he is starting to turn on the power to some degree but still has just five home runs and a .116 ISO for the season. Teoscar Hernandez has been better with eight home runs but he has just a .173 ISO and 97 WRC+ overall, both right-handed power hitters have a nice ceiling against this lefty tonight. AJ Pollock is hitting eighth ahead of catcher Tom Murphy and infielder Jose Caballero at the bottom of the lineup. Pollock has been unproductive in 87 plate appearances with just a 49 WRC+ but he could see the start against the weak lefty tonight, Murphy has power for a cheap price at catcher, and Caballero is a cheap multi-position option late in the lineup.

Play: Luis Castillo, Mariners bats/stacks, both aggressively, maybe a very small number of extremely low-end Muller shares at $5,000 for SP2 on DraftKings

Update Notes: the confirmed Mariners lineup has Cal Raleigh playing after all, he will hit sixth in a nice upgrade between Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, who our Ol’ Pal just reminded us has destroyed left-handed pitching over his past 139 plate appearances in the split to the tune of a .394 ISO. Murphy sits, the rest of the lineup is as expected. The Athletics do indeed get Seth Brown back tonight, he will hit cleanup between Rooker and JJ Bleday who was not in our projected lineup but is another quality bat on the left side for Oakland, not that it seems likely to matter against Castillo but it’s a better top seven now.

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