The MLB DFS slate gets rolling with an irritating time change to a 12:40 start that has our morning in shambles. Coverage is presented below in a fast-as-possible format with updated lineups coming as soon as the overview is finished. The slate includes a broad range of excellent pitching options with several strong value plays hiding amongst the premium starters from the top of team rotations. The hitting slate is somewhat limited, but several of the league’s top teams and best DFS options are carrying massive projections, including the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Rays, and Cardinals. There is also a Coors Field game in play on the FanDuel slate, DraftKings is opting for 10 games and leaving Coors alone today in a smart decision.
We are off for shows today with the change to start times crunching the morning schedule, join us tomorrow for the Monday Lineup Card show.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/11/23
Houston Astros (+124/4.00) @ Cleveland Guardians (-134/4.59) – note: 12:40 ET start time
The Astros and Guardians game was shifted to an earlier start time to accommodate impending rain in the area. Cleveland will have scuffling former ace Shane Bieber on the mound at $9,000/$8,100. Bieber has a 3.57 ERA but a 4.36 xFIP and a strikeout rate that has been severely limited at 16.3% over his 80.2 innings in 13 starts. The righty is a shade of the pitcher he once was in this form, he has pitched deep into games but has been wholly unreliable for MLB DFS purposes and is difficult to recommend in this spot, even with his price down. Bieber still projects relatively well in an overall sense, but he lands just in the middle of our board and there should be more trustworthy options available on both sites. The Astros are carrying a limited 4.0-run implied team total against the righty, Houston has not been great this season and they have a significant lack of Yordan Alvarezes in their lineup. Mauricio Dubon should lead off, he is a mix-in player with upside from his position in the batting order. Dubon has a 106 WRC+ over 214 plate appearances and costs just $3,500/$2,900. Jose Altuve is a star second baseman with a 6.18 in our home run model today. Altuve has a 123 WRC+ with a pair of home runs in 69 plate appearances since his return from injury. Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker slot in on the right and left side of the plate with power upside. Bregman has not made his typically sturdy contact this year but still has nine home runs, Tucker has had a similar dip in production and sits at eight home runs and 10 stolen bases. For their prices, both players are interesting pieces when going to stacks of Astros. Jose Abreu hit another home run! The first baseman is up to a loft total of three for the year and is now slashing .223/.279/.293 with a .070 ISO and 60 WRC+ and hopefully, he will continue to climb. Jeremy Pena, Corey Julks, Yainer Diaz, and Jake Meyers round out the projected lineup. Pena was very good as a rookie last year, he is still three percent above average for run creation in 2023, but his production has been limited and infrequent overall. The other three are mix-and-match pieces in the outfield and at catcher.
The Guardians’ low-strikeout lineup will be facing Brandon Bielak who has just an 18.5% strikeout rate for the season, which should lead to plenty of opportunities for Cleveland to put bat on ball. Bielak has a 3.35 ERA and 4.52 xFIP for his $6,600/$8,600, but he has allowed too many opportunities between the limited strikeouts and a 1.49 WHIP, and he allows too much premium contact with a 13.6% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate that has amounted to 90.5 mph of exit velocity on average, with a 4.32% home run rate. Bielak is not projecting like a high-end pitching option in this matchup. The Guardians are carrying a mid-level 4.59-run implied team total into this contest and they have shown a minor pulse in recent games. Steven Kwan is a cheap leadoff hitter who was good for correlated scoring last year, he costs $3,800/$2,900 in the outfield. Amed Rosario is affordable at $3,400/$2,800 at shortstop, he has not done much for the season with one home run and eight stolen bases and a 71 WRC+ over 248 plate appearances but he has a 46.1% hard-hit rate that should bleed through into his production eventually. Jose Ramirez went on a late-week rampage and now has 10 home runs with a .216 ISO and 122 WRC+ for the year, the Cleveland star is still cheap at $4,900/$3,700. Josh Naylor and Josh Bell can provide power from the heart of the lineup. Naylor has eight home runs on the season and Bell has four, though neither has been what we would call reliable for power. Andres Gimenez is cheap at $3,600/$2,600, he has three home runs and seven stolen bases to this point in the season and, like his double-play partner Rosario, he has been highly disappointing. Gimenez has an 82 WRC+ over 240 plate appearances this season after putting up a 140 in 557 opportunities last year. Mix and match players Will Brennan, Myles Straw, and Cam Gallagher close the projected lineup.
Play: minor shares of Shane Bieber if so inclined, Guardians bats/stacks as a mid-range stack
Update Notes: Houston’s lineup runs Dubon-Julks-Bregman-Tucker-Abreu-Diaz-Meyers-Grae Kessinger–Cesar Salazar, Kessinger is a min-priced shortstop on both sites, Salazar is a backup catcher. The Guardians gave Jose Ramirez the day off in a big downgrade to their lineup which now runs Kwan-Rosario-Naylor-Bell-Gimenez-Gabriel Arias-Brennan-Straw-Gallagher
Kansas City Royals (+150/4.00) @ Baltimore Orioles (-185/5.26)
A low-end pitching matchup in Baltimore is pushing the Orioles to a healthy total with the visiting Royals only landing at 4.0 in their matchup against righty Kyle Gibson. The veteran starter has been mostly ineffective this season, he has a 3.87 ERA and 4.54 xFIP with a 17% strikeout rate over 76.2 innings in 13 starts. Gibson has been at or around 20% strikeouts over the past few seasons, his swinging-strike rate has dipped year-over-year, which is the likely culprit in the overall reduction in strikeouts. The righty has allowed a 40.1% hard-hit rate this year but has avoided barrels well enough to limit home runs to just 1.89% so far. On the surface, Gibson does not look like a great option at $7,700/$9,000, but there is upside for strikeouts for even lower-end pitchers against this Royals team, which gives him an upward nudge in our projections. Kansas City’s projected lineup is without Vinnie Pasquantino, the lone hitter in their typical lineup who is good at limiting strikeouts, the first baseman was put on the IL yesterday. Today’s projected lineup has a current-year strikeout rate above 27%, there are opportunities for Gibson to find some MLB DFS points in this one. Nick Pratto is a quality left-handed hitter who is finding his form in the show and slashing .289/.378/.444 over 156 plate appearances, but he has a 35.3% strikeout rate so far this season. Sal Perez is one of the hardest-hitting catchers in baseball, he has a dozen home runs this season and a 21.8% strikeout rate which is one of the best marks on this team right now. MJ Melendez has five home runs and an aggressively good contact profile, but he is another free-swinger in this lineup and is carrying a 30.5% strikeout rate. Bobby Witt Jr. costs $5,700/$3,400, his FanDuel price is cheap for a player of his talents at a premium position. Witt has 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases, and at 21.2% he is another hitter who is better than his teammates at limiting strikeouts, while still only landing around the average. Michael Massey, Maikel Garci, Drew Waters, Nicky Lopez, and Jackie Bradley Jr. is a limited and unappealing bottom half for DFS purposes. Among those hitters, only Lopez is striking out at a rate below 25%.
The Orioles have a hefty 5.26-run implied team total this afternoon in a matchup against righty opener Carlos Hernandez, who will then hand off to righty Mike Mayers in bulk relief. Hernandez has a 32.8% strikeout rate in 31.1 innings but is unlikely to see more than two innings at the top of the game. Mayers has a 3.99 xFIP and 4.41 ERA over 16.1 innings this year and was at a 4.62 xFIP over 50.2 innings last year, he has a limited 20.8% strikeout rate this year and is not an impressive option for DFS. The Orioles have a good opportunity to create runs and MLB DFS points in this matchup, the team’s projected lineup includes Gunnar Henderson in the leadoff role, which is a good spot for the rookie. Henderson has a very strong 14.7% walk rate under his aggressive 29.9% strikeout rate, he has gotten on base at a .343 clip and has four stolen bases so far this year. Henderson costs just $3,400/$3,000 with eligibility at third base on DraftKings and adding shortstop on the FanDuel slate. Adley Rutschman is an everyday player on both sites whenever he is in the lineup. The catcher has a 126 WRC+ with eight home runs so far this season and he has struck out just 14.2% of the time while walking at an elite 16.3% clip. Anthony Santander is a switch-hitter with power upside in the heart of the lineup, he has nine home runs on the season and a .211 ISO for just $4,500/$3,300. Austin Hays is having a productive season for power with seven home runs and a .193 ISO on an 11.9% barrel rate and 44.7% hard hits. Hays is also slashing .307/.346/.500 and has created runs 34% better than average this year. Aaron Hicks is still capable of seeing pitches and drawing walks, if pitchers make mistakes to him he can drive the ball somewhat effectively, but his 2.9% barrel rate and 24.6% hard-hit rate tell the real tale of the limited veteran outfielder. Ryan O’Hearn, Adam Frazier, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo close out the projected lineup with quality mix-in options. O’Hearn has three home runs in 66 plate appearances, Frazier is a quality hit-tool and speed option who can knock one over the fence from time to time, Urias is a similar option for cheap prices, and Mateo was one of fantasy baseball’s best options through all of April before shriveling through all of May and June.
Play: Kyle Gibson, Orioles bats/stacks, minor shares of hedge Royals bats
Update Notes: the Royals have their lineup in its expected form. The Orioles have Henderson-Santander-Hays-O’Hearn up top with Rutschman getting the day off, they are followed by Hicks-Urias-Frazier-Josh Lester–James McCann in an overall downgrade to the lineup.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-120/5.25) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-101/5.01)
Healthy run totals on either side should turn this game into a popular source of options at the plate for MLB DFS. The talent of both the Dodgers and Phillies is undeniable and there are numerous options for creating a variety of combinations within each team stack. The Dodgers are facing righty Taijuan Walker, who has been a roughly league-average righty on his best days. Walker has a 5.04 ERA and 4.68 xFIP over 64.1 innings and 13 starts this year, and his strikeout rate sits at just 19.5%. The righty has walked too many at 10.7% and he has allowed too much premium contact with a 40.7% hard-hit rate and 3.68% home run rate. Walker is cheap at $5,700/$7,300, but there are better ideas than rostering this pitcher against the Dodgers, like dropping a brick onto your foot. Los Angeles is carrying a 5.25-run implied total and their roster demands attention. Mookie Betts is a superstar with multi-position eligibility at second base and in the outfield on DraftKings, he adds shortstop on FanDuel to fill out a third position. Betts costs $6,400/$4,200, he has 17 home runs and a 146 WRC+ this season. Freddie Freeman is slashing .336/.411/.575 with a .239 ISO and 165 WRC+ and strikes out at just a 15.4% clip, an attribute he shares with Betts who is at 16.5% and catcher Will Smith who hits third and sits at just 11.6% strikeouts for the season. Smith has nine home runs and a .215 ISO with a 41.4% hard-hit rate and he walks at a 14.1% clip to go with all of the balls he puts in play. The backstop is an outstanding option at $5,900/$3,800. Max Muncy is a left-handed masher who is pulling in a 12.14 in our home run model against Walker. Muncy has 18 home runs on the season with a gaudy .286 ISO and he has created runs 17% better than average despite sitting at .194/.324/.481. JD Martinez has 16 home runs and a massive .358 ISO for the season, he is a pricey item at $5,600/$4,000, prices to which we never expected him to return, but he has earned the salaries so far this season and he is a key cog for this Dodgers’ run-creation machine. David Peralta, Miguel Vargas, Jason Heyward, and Miguel Rojas round out the lineup, Vargas and Heyard are the two more interesting options but Peralta is easily playable as a cheap left-handed veteran outfielder. Peralta is slashing .267/.297/.390 with an 87 WRC+, Vargas has a 110 WRC+ with six home runs and Heyward has a matching six home runs and a 121 WRC+ in his 140 chances.
The Phillies are facing opener Victor Gonzalez in what is likely to be a full bullpen game, which was the exact scenario they were in on Friday night. The lefty threw 0.2 innings, facing three hitters and walking one while allowing nothing and scoring nothing. Gonzalez is opening in an effort to limit Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper the first time through the lineup but the pitcher has not been good at limiting left-handed power and neither hitter has much difficulty generating power against same-handed pitching. The Dodgers have not announced a bulk reliever, this seems to be a traditional bullpen game approach. Schwarber should be leading off again, the lefty has 17 home runs and a .265 ISO this season. Like Muncy, Schwarber is below the Mendoza line at .175/.328/.439 but he has a 109 WRC+ and we simply don’t care about that batting average with all of his power, though he could get on base a bit more. Nick Castellanos is cheap at $4,800/$3,400. The outfielder has created runs 28% better than average with seven home runs and a .310/.357/.488 triple-slash this year, he should be more expensive given the production and a long track record that was high-quality other than last season. Harper checks in at $6,300/$3,600, he is typically worth the effort of rostering at high prices and he retains his first base eligibility on the blue site, which adds to the appeal. The Phillies star has created runs 22% better than average since his return. Trea Turner has been 21% below the average for run creation this season in a bizarre twist. The star shortstop has seven home runs and eight stolen bases and is slashing just .242/.285/.389, his FanDuel price is down at just $3,000, which makes him a bargain buy, but his $5,600 DraftKings cost is still somewhat high for this level of output. There is still a lot of faith in this space in the turnaround for Turner. JT Realmuto is a high-end catcher for just $5,000/$2,800, he can be played across sites but has more value where his position is required at this point. Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, Kody Clemens, and Edmundo Sosa form a strong bottom half of the lineup, Stott is a good correlated scoring player, Marsh and Clemens have left-handed power and run creation abilities, and Sosa is a sneaky cheap option who can deliver infrequent upside.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Phillies bats/stacks, both aggressively but they will probably be popular
Update Notes: Los Angeles has their lineup in the expected form. The Phillies get Alec Bohm back, adding another productive bat to their lineup, he slides in hitting fifth today behind Schwarber-Turner-Castellanos-Harper and ahead of Clemens-Marsh-Garrett Stubbs with Realmuto getting Sunday off.
New York Mets (+113/4.11) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-122/4.48)
One of the day’s top pitching options, Mitch Keller, will be facing the Mets in a home start for $10,400/$10,300. Keller hit a speedbump in an ugly 5.1-inning start against the Athletics in which he allowed five runs on eight hits while striking out just one at heavy DFS popularity earlier in the week, but the righty has a good opportunity to bounce back against New York, with slugger Pete Alonso out of the lineup. Keller has been highly effective this season, he has made 13 starts and thrown 80 innings, pitching deep into games and racking up strikeouts at a 28.3% clip. The righty has a 3.23 xFIP and 3.60 ERA for the year and he has been keeping power in check with just a 33.3% hard-hit rate and 86.8 mph of exit velocity on average. Keller is a worthwhile investment on this slate, the Mets are carrying just a 4.11-run implied total, they are decent at limiting strikeouts but Keller has the talent to induce a few along the way. The projected Mets lineup opens with Brandon Nimmo for just $4,100/$3,100, which is affordable for an outfielder with a 127 WRC+ over 286 opportunities. Nimmo is a strong play for correlation with hitters who follow him, including Francisco Alvarez and Francisco Lindor. Both of the Franciscos have a dozen home runs, the rookie catcher got his in just 146 plate appearances while the star shortstop took 281 to get to the total. Lindor is trailing with just a 100 WRC+ as well, Alvarez has been fantastic this season and sits at a 135 mark for run creation. Jeff McNeil is projected to hit between them, he is another correlation play who relies on base hits. Starling Marte has 18 stolen bases and his triple-slash has climbed slightly to .258/.316/.333, but he has not been the player we expected this season. Brett Baty has 50.5% hard-hit rate and four home runs with a 92 WRC+ in 160 plate appearances since his call-up. Tommy Pham, Omar Narvaez, and Mark Canha close out the lineup with veteran quality at cheap prices. None is a great option but any of the group is playable.
The Pirates are facing Carlos Carrasco who has not been pitching well for the most part this season. Carrasco has a 5.94 ERA and 5.32 xFIP and has struck out just 14.5% over seven starts and 36.1 innings. The righty has allowed a home run in all but one of his starts and tends to pitch around five innings with three or four strikeouts, there is not much DFS quality even at $5,100/$7,200. The Pirates lineup is not a primary option, they rank as a mid-range stack with a 4.48-run implied total in Vegas and a handful of interesting hitters. Andrew McCutchen costs $4,500/$3,500 in the leadoff role. The veteran has eight home runs and seven stolen bases and has managed a 15.7% walk rate with a 44% hard-hit rate while creating runs 22% better than average so far this season. McCutchen pairs well with fellow outfield star Bryan Reynolds, who has created runs 19% better than average but needs to find consistent home run power. Reynolds has just seven home runs, most of which came in early April, despite a 13.4% barrel rate and 54.5% hard hits. Jack Suwinski has 12 home runs and a .262 ISO with a 15% barrel rate and 45.8% hard-hit rate. Carlos Santana has not done much at the plate this season, he is slated to hit cleanup at affordable prices, landing ahead of Ke’Bryan Hayes who has hit the ball very hard all year to limited results, but is capable of a big game from time to time as he showed this past week. Ji-Hwan Bae, Josh Palacios, Tucupita Marcano, and Austin Hedges are a low-end bottom half of the lineup.
Play: Mitch Keller, Pirates bats/stacks as a mid-range option
Update Notes: the Mets lineup runs as expected through Lindor, with Pham hitting fifth ahead of Baty-Canha-Narvaez-Vientos, both Narvaez and Alvarez are in the lineup, giving DraftKings gamers a bonus catcher to work with. The Pirates lineup includes Connor Joe hitting third with Santana-Suwinski-Hayes following.
Washington Nationals (+232/3.67) @ Atlanta Braves (-259/5.97)
The Braves have Bryce Elder on the mound to face the Nationals this afternoon as very heavy favorites. The righty has made 12 starts and thrown 71.2 innings with a 22.2% strikeout rate and a 3.64 xFIP under a sparkling 2.26 ERA. Elder has been good throughout the season, he has posted several valuable MLB DFS starts and he checks in at a fair $9,600 on DraftKings. The righty has the ability and good enough average depth of start to chase the quality start on the blue site, which makes his $10,400 price on FanDuel somewhat more tolerable, though it could be lower for this pitcher. Elder is facing a Nationals lineup that includes no truly threatening hitters, but they are good at limiting strikeouts for the most part, which adds a bit of a degree of difficulty to Elder’s ability to reach a ceiling score. Still, the starter has an excellent chance of reaching the win and posting a quality score today. Lane Thomas is the top hitter on the Nationals, he has nine home runs and should be in the leadoff spot for $4,400/$3,100 today. Luis Garcia and Joey Meneses follow in a capable but unspectacular top third of the lineup. Garcia has five home runs but he is creating runs 14% below average, Meneses is seven percent above average with a strong triple-slash but only two home runs. Jeimer Candelario has hit all seven of his home runs this year against right-handed pitching, he has a 2.90 in our home run model against Elder however, the righty has been good at checking home runs and keeping the ball on the ground. Dominic Smith, Keibert Ruiz, Corey Dickerson, CJ Abrams, and Alex Call round out the projected lineup. Smith has done very little to earn his job this season, Ruiz has upside as a cheap catcher with potential for power, Dickerson is a left-handed veteran with moderate pop, Abrams is a low-end shortstop play with six homers and six steals this year, and Call has been 25% worse than average for run creation.
The Braves are at the top of today’s Power Index, the matchup against righty Trevor Williams plays directly into their power upside, Williams gives up imbalanced power to right-handed hitters in a reverse split and has an aggressively high home run to flyball ratio in the split. Williams is an unlikely option on the mound, even at $5,500/$7,600 there is very little room for upside. The righty has a 4.15 ERA and 5.07 xFIP with a 17.5% strikeout rate and 4.56% home run rate on 13.3% barrels, he is a target not a play. Ronald Acuna Jr. has 13 home runs and 28 stolen bases on the year, he costs $6,500/$4,600, the Braves all come at high prices at the top of the lineup, but they are well worth the effort. Acuna has a 13.23 in our home run model, only a slight tick behind Matt Olson who sits at 13.54 to lead the team. Olson has clubbed 17 home runs, also a team-leading mark on the hard-hitting squad. The lefty first baseman has a 19.1% barrel rate and 54.8% hard-hit rate this year, he has been outrageously good. Austin Riley is our overall home run pick for the day, he has 11 on the season with a .185 ISO that is down somewhat compared to the last two seasons, but he seems likely to have his typical numbers by season’s end. Riley has a 47.5% hard-hit rate while slashing .274/.339/.460 and creating runs 13% better than average. Sean Murphy should be back in the lineup after getting Saturday off, the backstop has a dozen home runs on the season and is an excellent option at his position. Eddie Rosario trails his teammates with only eight home runs and a 6.03 in our home run model, but he has been a valuable piece in the Atlanta lineup for much of the season and he provides a good way to offset pricing and popularity at $3,300/$2,700. Ozzie Albies is a star at second base, he has 14 home runs in 266 plate appearances with a .224 ISO and he costs just $4,700/$3,200 with never enough popularity. Marcell Ozuna has hit 13 home runs already this year, he has a .259 ISO and has created runs 15% better than average despite striking out 23.2% of the time and slashing just .236/.314/.494. Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II are luxuries at the bottom of the lineup. Harris has struggled to find last year’s form but the talent is very much in place and he still has a 46.5% hard-hit rate that suggests his stats are coming. Arcia is a value play with three-position eligibility for $2,900 on FanDuel, he fill shortstop ably for $3,500 on DraftKings.
Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively, Bryce Elder
Update Notes: Washington has the expected lineup in place. The Braves everyday lineup is in play.
Minnesota Twins (+182/3.34) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-200/4.76)
The Twins are facing ace Kevin Gausman, who is a top-end play on today’s slate on both sites. Gausman costs $11,400 against a Twins projected lineup that has an average of a 27.8% strikeout rate for the season, he has spectacular upside tonight and is facing a non-threatening version of the Twins with several key hitters out of the lineup. Gausman has a 34.3% strikeout rate over 82 innings in 13 starts this year, he has pitched to a 2.63 ERA and 2.53 xFIP and has been excellent at limiting home runs despite allowing some premium contact. In his most recent start, Gausman struck out 13 Astros hitters while allowing just one run on four hits over seven innings, he has a chance to top that performance this afternoon against the free-swinging Twins. Minnesota’s lineup seems like an aggressively bad play in this spot, those willing to take the risk will at least be targeting a popular pitcher, but the play is very very thin. Edouard Julien, Donovan Solano, and Alex Kirilloff are the top three hitters in the projected lineup. Julien is a premium prospect who may be here a bit early due to some injuries, he has made 76 plate appearances and has a 125 WRC+ but is slashing just .246/.333/.477. Solano has a 108 WRC+ as a light-hitting option with a .087 ISO and zero home runs in 168 plate appearances. Kirilloff has a 5.67 in our home run model and he has three on the season with a .158 ISO. Carlos Correa has hit eight home runs but is slashing just .212/.298/.394. Trevor Larnach has six home runs in 169 plate appearances with a 94 WRC+, Royce Lewis is affordable at third base on DraftKings and adds shortstop eligibility on the blue site, and Max Kepler drops in with left-handed power hitting upside. Christian Vazquez and Michael A. Taylor, who has nine very low-owned home runs this season, round out the lineup.
At $7,900/$8,800, righty Louie Varland is an interesting decision point against the Blue Jays. The rookie has been pitching fairly well overall, he has a 4.40 ERA but a 3.95 xFIP and his strike-throwing ability has been strong. Varland has a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and 28.2% CSW% so far this season and he has racked up a 22.4% strikeout rate with a 6.1% walk rate overall in his eight starts and 47 innings. Varland has allowed power and the Blue Jays do not strike out very much from top to bottom, but he has a path to success at these prices, particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings. The Blue Jays might be able to exploit the starter’s 5.61% home run rate allowed so far, but looking at the contact profile that seems more likely to represent a few mistakes in a small sample than it does an ongoing problem. George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are one of baseball’s best trios and a deadly-good way to start a lineup. The group strikes out at under 17% as a whole, they have titanic power and good speed as well as excellent hit and on-base skills. Springer has nine home runs and 10 stolen bases while creating runs four percent better than average, Bichette is 43% better than average for runs so far this year and has 14 homers, and Guerrero has been 24% above the waterline for run creation while also hitting nine home runs. They cost a pretty penny at the top of the lineup, but all three are at reduced prices in the low $5,000 range on DraftKings and mid 3,000s on FanDuel. Matt Chapman has been stuck at eight home runs for a minute, he has a .197 ISO overall with an 18.7% barrel rate and a still-fantastic 60.2% hard-hit rate for the year. Chapman is now a bargain at third base at $4,600/$3,100 after a cold May and early June. Daulton Varsho has 11 home runs with a 90 WRC+ over 266 plate appearances, he is affordable in the outfield and hit 27 home runs last year. Whit Merrifield, Cavan Biggio, Santigao Espinal, and Tyler Heineman close out the lineup. Merrifield is easily the most playable, he is a good hit-and-speed option who provides correlated scoring upside. Biggio and Espinal are fine as mix-in infielders at cheap prices and what should be low popularity.
Play: Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays bats/stacks, Louie Varland value
Update Notes: the Twins lineup runs as projected. The Blue Jays have Nathan Lukes in hitting eighth for $2,000 on either site in the outfield.
Texas Rangers (+162/3.47) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-177/4.63)
Two of baseball’s best teams square off one more time on Sunday with the Rangers carrying a very limited 3.47-run implied total in a matchup against outstanding lefty Shane McClanahan who should be popular even at $11,200/$10,500 in the difficult matchup. McClanahan has a 28.5% strikeout rate in 75.2 innings and 13 starts and he is among the league leaders with a 15.6% swinging-strike rate and 32.1% CSW% this year. The lefty has a sterling 2.02 ERA but a 3.57 xFIP that might be the more honest mark when things are fully written for the season. McClanahan has allowed a bit of premium contact with a 9.5% barrel rate and 39.2% hard hits with an 89.6 mph average exit velocity, but his home run rate is just 2.62% and he is very capable of limiting power and run creation even for a great offense like what Texas brings to the plate. Rostering Rangers stacks as a contrarian option in a few shares with the expectation of failure is not the worst idea. Typically we do not want to target the best starters on the slate for that approach, but the talent in the Texas lineup makes it at least somewhat viable, despite the low run total. Marcus Semien has nine home runs this year while creating runs 35% better than average and carrying the team for stretches. Corey Seager hit his seventh home run yesterday, he has made just 144 plate appearances, missing some time with an injury, but he has been one of the best shortstops in the game when he plays. Seager has a 180 WRC+ and a .266 ISO with a 16% barrel rate and 55.7% hard-hit rate this year. Nathaniel Lowe is a solid first base option who is fairly priced to help roster his teammates in stacks, at $4,300/$3,300 Lowe is a strong value when rostering Rangers. Adolis Garcia has 15 home runs and five steals with a 128 WRC+ in 264 plate appearances, Josh Jung has 13 home runs and has cut his strikeout rate from 38.2% last year to 26.5% this season. Jonah Heim has seven home runs and a 118 WRC+, Mitch Garver adds a second power-hitting catcher to the lineup for $3,900/$3,200, he has three home runs in 44 plate appearances so far this year, and Ezequiel Duran should land in the eighth spot with quality. Duran is cheap with multi-position eligibility on both sites, he has seven home runs and a 148 WRC+ this year. Leody Taveras has also been solid, posting a 129 WRC+ over 190 plate appearances in an unexpected outburst of quality.
The Rays ridiculous lineup runs into veteran southpaw Martin Perez who costs $7,200/$8,700 and is a very different pitcher than his opponent. Perez has a limited 16.6% strikeout rate with a 3.97 ERA and 4.76 xFIP so far this season, he has been worse under the surface than his somewhat high ERA indicates and he has lost the moderate strikeout upside he once had. Perez does not look like a good option in this matchup, the Rays are drawing solid power ratings in our model and they have destroyed mediocre pitchers all season. Perez is allowing premium contact at a higher clip this year, his 7.1% barrel rate is well up from 4.3% last year, and hard hits have jumped from 34.5% to 38.8% with his home run rate spiking from 1.34% to 3.39%. Yandy Diaz has a dozen home runs and a .403 on-base percentage while striking out just 15.5% and walking at a 12.2% clip, he has been terrific this season yet he costs just $5,000/$3,800. Wander Franco is creating runs 36% better than average as one of the top shortstops in the game. He has seven home runs and 22 stolen bases and costs a pricey $6,000/$4,100. Harold Ramirez slots in third for just $4,200/$3,000. The outfielder has been productive at the plate this year and has hit for more power than in seasons past. Ramirez has nine home runs and a 139 WRC+ with a .215 ISO over 191 plate appearances while slashing .294/.340/.508. Randy Arozarena is a star with power and speed in the heart of the lineup. The outfielder is worth the expense at $5,800/$3,900, he has 12 home runs and nine stolen bases this year and has created runs 60% better than average. Last season, Arozarena hit 20 home runs and stole 32 bases, he is a terrific option for MLB DFS scoring. Isaac Paredes, Jose Siri, Christian Bethancourt, Manuel Margot, and Taylor Walls have all been terrific this year as well, to varying degrees of surprise. Paredes and Siri both have 11 home runs with the former creating runs 39% better than average and the latter at 23% better. Siri reached his home run total in just 139 plate appearances, he has been mashing this season. Bethancourt has seven home runs and a 99 WRC+, Margot has been the least productive Rays hitter with just an 85 WRC+, while Walls has seven home runs and 15 stolen bases with a 108 WRC+ in 183 opportunities.
Play: Shane McClanahan, Rays bats/stacks, minor shares of Rangers contrarian stacks in large tournaments
Update Notes: the Texas lineup looks as expected with Heim catching and Garver sitting, Robbie Grossman steps in to hit eighth. The Rays lineup runs as projected.
Oakland Athletics (+181/3.35) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-199/4.75)
Brewers righty Freddy Peralta had a fairly good get-right start in his last outing, putting up nine strikeouts while allowing two runs on six hits over five innings against the Orioles after struggling in several outings. He has a strong opportunity to get things fully on track in an easy spot against the Athletics this afternoon. Peralta has a 24.5% strikeout rate and 4.55 ERA with a 4.14 xFIP and has induced a 12.6% swinging-strike rate with a 28.3% CSW% for the year. He has allowed more premium contact and hard hits this season, but over time he has been spectacular at capping power by limiting barrels and hard hits. The righty is a bargain at his $8,800 DraftKings price, he should be pushed aggressively on the site and seems likely to be very popular, if he is not it popular it makes sense to draw additional shares, he is in a great spot. The FanDuel price is a different animal at $10,200, Peralta will hopefully go somewhat under-owned at that mark, we remain buyers at the higher price against a target of a lineup. Oakland has a low-end projected lineup that sees speedy Esteury Ruiz and his 31 stolen base total in the leadoff role as usual. Ryan Noda has a nose for getting on base and he has been 48% better than average for run creation this year as by far Oakland’s best player, everyone else in the projected lineup, with the exception of Jonah Bride, who has made 35 plate appearances, is below average for run creation. Noda costs $2,700/$2,800, which is cheap for his output at the plate. Seth Brown has power and speed for a cheap price, which is true of Ramon Laureano in smaller doses, Brown is easily the better option, he missed time but is a good player who went 25/11 last season. Jace Peterson is a cheap left-handed infielder with infrequent pop, he has five home runs in 202 plate appearances. Carlos Perez, JJ Bleday, Bride, and Kevin Smith round out the lineup.
Milwaukee is facing lefty JP Sears, who has made productive starts at cheap prices this season. Sears has a 22.7% strikeout rate with a 4.20 ERA but a 4.92 xFIP that tells the true tale. The lefty has allowed too much power, he has a 4.92% home run rate on 12.1% barrels which takes a lot of the wind out of his sails even at $7,600/$7,500. There is upside and a bit of talent in the lefty, he is not off the board but he also does not project overly well by comparison to the fairly deep pitching slate. Sears is a viable DraftKings SP2 for the bargain price, his upside for FanDuel will depend almost entirely on his ability to book the quality start, if he does it should be supported by enough strikeouts to provide a good value score. Brewers right-handed hitters are in play, as are the premium lefties in their lineup. Owen Miller is projected to lead off, he has a .313/.351/.448 triple-slash with a 118 WRC+ in 174 plate appearances on the right side. Willy Adames has major power and a 7.47 in our home run model to lead the team. His 10 home runs stand tall in this matchup, he has potential to deliver against Sears and his return has boosted the potential for this offense overall. William Contreras has eight home runs and can provide value at catcher, he is playable on the blue site as well, given his spot in this lineup. Christian Yelich has a 6.02 in the home run model, he has seven on the season with 16 stolen bases to pad MLB DFS scoring. Joey Wiemer, Brian Anderson, Blake Perkins, Andruw Monasterio, and Luis Urias close out the lineup. Urias has the best upside with his power at cheap prices but they are all viable mix-and-match plays, depending on the lineup’s final form. Wiemer has eight home runs and 10 stolen bases but a weak triple-slash and just a 92 WRC+, Anderson has a bit of pop on the right side and could be a sneaky option against Sears, Perkins is a low-cost outfielder, and Monasterio provides a similar discount in the infield. The Brewers and Sears are both in play with value-based potential.
Play: Freddy Peralta, Brewers bats/stacks, JP Sears value
Update Notes: The Athletics lineup is in it’s low-end projected form. The Brewers have Miller-Wiemer-Contreras-Adames-Yelich-Urias-Anderson-Perkins-Monasterio in an interesting configuration. Bump to Urias in a better spot.
Miami Marlins (+129/3.72) @ Chicago White Sox (-140/4.37)
The game in Chicago has a good pitching matchup with Lucas Giolito on the hill for the home team. The matchup against Miami is pushing Giolito toward the top of the pitching board on this one, he remains a premium right-handed pitcher despite a bit of a dip in quality in early returns this year. Giolito has a 3.75 ERA but a 4.41 xFIP and he has allowed a bit more premium contact with barrels jumping from 7.5% to 9.7% so far in what could be just happenstance. Giolito’s strikeout rate has dipped slightly from 25.4% in 161.2 innings last year to 24.5% in 74.1 innings this season, but he is effective and can pitch deep into ballgames. Against one of the worst teams in baseball for run creation against right-handed pitching, Giolito has significant potential at $9,400/$9,900. There is not a ton to love about the Marlins lineup outside of Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler, but young outfielders Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez are growing into good options at the plate. Over 248 plate appearances this year, Arraez is hitting .402, he has a real shot at .400 for the season. His .452 on-base percentage and 161 WRC+ are elite, anyone who says he is not a good player is wrong. Soler has 17 home runs and a .276 ISO, he costs just $5,300/$3,200 and looks like a good option for anyone looking to target Giolito in a contrarian approach. De La Cruz has eight home runs and a 120 WRC+ over 245 plate appearances in which he is slashing .291/343/.457 but he strikes out at a 25.7% clip. With Soler at 25.5% and Sanchez slotting in behind De La Cruz at 27.1% there is a strong lane for strikeout potential for Giolito in this lineup. Sanchez has six home runs and a .257 ISO in his 118 plate appearances, he was hitting very well prior to the injury that cost him several weeks. Garrett Cooper has a 31.8% strikeout rate over his 173 plate appearances, he also has a limited 78 WRC+ with six home runs, he has not been great and adds to Giolito’s strikeout potential. Joey Wendle, Jean Segura, Nick Fortes, and Jonathan Davis are non-threatening non-options at the bottom of the lineup. Any can be utilized in Marlins stacks and if one were to build 150 of those they could each be in 10-15 of them, but they are low-end choices overall.
Braxton Garrett was not great for us the last time out. The lefty had looked like a good option with his strikeout rate and strike-throwing climbing over the season’s first two months and a matchup against the Royals earlier in the week. Garrett delivered six strikeouts in five innings, but was dinged for a home run and four earned runs in the short start and did not post the needed MLB DFS score. With a matchup against the White Sox and an $8,200/$8,900 price tag, it might be worth throwing a few darts with Garrett’s name on them on today’s slate as well. Chicago will be without Eloy Jimenez and their performance overall has not been great this year. Garrett has a 4.47 ERA but a very good 3.24 xFIP and a 24.2% strikeout rate with a 13.4% swinging-strike rate and 31.9% CSW%. The lefty has been better than advertised this season and he makes for a good SP2 play on DraftKings and should be fairly sneaky on FanDuel. Tim Anderson has zero home runs and seven stolen bases with just a 71 WRC+ in a rough 200 plate appearances, the veteran should be better over his next 300 opportunities to close the season. Jake Burger is cheap for someone with 13 home runs on the season, he costs just $3,800/$3,300, but he is also not truly the player who has a 20.2% barrel rate and 52.5% hard-hit rate in his 161 plate appearance outburst. Luis Robert Jr. is truly the excellent player that he looks like, the outfielder has 14 home runs and a .248 ISO with a 123 WRC+ this season. Andrew Vaughn is a productive first baseman whose 111 WRC+ is far better than what has been produced in Houston by the player he replaced. Yoan Moncada has been 15% worse than average for run creation since his return from injury 139 plate appearances ago. The third baseman was at a 76 WRC+ last year but a 122 in 616 plate appearances in 2021, he is up and down for quality but provides cheap potential with a bit of power and speed. Clint Frazier slots in for $2,000 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel. Romy Gonzalez, Seby Zavala, and Elvis Andrus are a lousy final third, despite Zavala’s two home run day earlier in the week.
Play: Lucas Giolito, Braxton Garrett
Update Notes: the Marlins lineup is as expected. The White Sox have Clint Frazier in the leadoff role ahead of Moncada-Robert-Vaughn-Burger-Benintendi-Gonzalez-Andrus-Zavala, with Tim Anderson getting the day off.
Cincinnati Reds (+115/4.09) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-125/4.51)
The final game on the DraftKings slate sees the Reds and Cardinals squaring off with mid-range run totals on both sides, but the Cardinals showing a bit of power potential against the Reds’ young premium starter. With veteran Adam Wainwright taking the mound for the home team we will be watching pitchers working at the exact opposite ends of their careers. Wainwright has a 12.7% strikeout rate and 5.97 ERA with a 5.42 xFIP and just a 6.4% swinging-strike rate in what has been a painful six starts, he has not had a good outing this season. The Reds are a team that can help a pitcher find his talent, but Wainwright’s is probably gone for good at age 41. The veteran has the lousy Reds checked to just a 4.09-run implied team total, but there is a lot of danger even at $5,300/$7,100. At what is essentially a mid-range hitter price on DraftKings, Wainwright darts are not out of the question, he does not need to do much against one of the worst lineups in baseball to deliver a playable score at that price, but it is a tough click. The Reds lineup includes TJ Friedl in the leadoff role, he has a 123 WRC+ over 163 productive plate appearances this season but does not hit for much power. Friedl has three home runs and six stolen bases this year, Matt McLain is a better power option from atop the lineup. The rookie has two home runs in 114 plate appearances with a .190 ISO and 146 WRC+ to start his career. Jonathan India has mid-range power and speed, he has hit six home runs and stolen 12 bases this season and has a 107 WRC+ ahead of Elly De La Cruz, who has struck out in 45.5% of his 22 plate appearances but has been highly productive in the 54.5% in which he did not strike out. The rookie star has a home run, two stolen bases, five runs scored, and three RBIs for a 171 WRC+ in the tiny sample. Spencer Steer has eight home runs and a .196 ISO with a 125 WRC+ this season, he has been quietly very good for Cincinnati. Tyler Stephenson is a playable catcher with a tiny bit of power upside, he has four home runs this season but an 86 WRC+ in his 255 plate appearances. A low-end group of Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild, and Curt Casali rounds out the projected lineup.
The Cardinals have a lot of power on the board against Hunter Greene, who has allowed a three percent home run rate but a 9.9% barrel rate and 90.5 mph of average exit velocity with a 43.7% hard-hit rate. Outside of the contact, Greene has been spectacular this season. The righty has a 3.92 ERA and 3.56 xFIP, roughly similar to the 4.44 ERA and 3.64 xFIP he posted last season, and his strikeouts have gone up year over year. Last season, Greene had a 30.9% strikeout rate and a nine percent walk rate, this season he is sitting at 33% strikeouts and 9.4% walks over 12 starts and 62 innings. The matchup is not ideal for the righty, St. Louis has been good for run creation and they have sturdy power upside, but Greene has the talent to post strikeouts and clean innings against them, making this a bit of a both-sided situation. Lefty Brendan Donovan costs just $3,100/$2,700 with multi-position eligibility on DraftKings, he has six home runs and four stolen bases with a .347 on-base percentage and can provide correlated scoring value. Paul Goldschmidt has 10 home runs on the season yesterday, he has a .202 ISO and 140 WRC+ with the run creation number matching that of young star teammate Nolan Gorman, who leads the team with 15 home runs. Nolan Arenado slots in with 13 long balls and a .206 ISO over 265 opportunities and has pushed his WRC+ to 119 in a solid turnaround. Willson Contreras could use a turnaround of his own, he has an 85 WRC+ so far this season with seven home runs and a .207/.295/.362 triple-slash. Tommy Edman is a better option when he is at one end of the batting order or another, but he can provide value in this spot as well, the multi-position player has upside for moderate power and speed at cheap prices. Paul DeJong, Jordan Walker, and Dylan Carlson are playable as a final third, they all have the potential for home runs and a bit of speed at cheap prices and low ownership.
Play: Hunter Greene, Reds bats/stacks, Cardinals bats/stacks
Update Notes: both lineups are confirmed as expected, though Edman slides to ninth in a good wraparound spot with Carlson hitting sixth for St. Louis.
San Diego Padres (-178/6.95) @ Colorado Rockies (5.20)
FanDuel stretched their contest to include a Coors Field game with a ton of rain in the forecast in a real nice gift to their loyal gamers. The matchup between the Padres and Rockies is mired by the potential for delay or postponement that is impacting any desire to roster a pitcher like Blake Snell or Dinelson Lamet, despite Snell’s talents on the mound. The unpredictable lefty has a habit of checking out of games early due to his aggressively high 13.7% walk rate, offsetting much of the value of his strikeout potential, and his stuff does not seem well-suited to a Coors Field game in bad conditions. Lamet is not a realistic option and should be targeted aggressively with Padres bats.
The projected San Diego lineup takes its usual top-heavy form, Xander Bogaerts slots into the leadoff spot, he has seven home runs and a 110 WRC+ despite a slide through May and early June. The shortstop is outstanding on the whole and he costs just $3,700. Fernando Tatis and Juan Soto at Coors Field should not be something we need to explain too much, the stars are excellent options at $4,500 and $4,300 but they will be very popular assuming this game plays. The conditions may limit the public’s overall exposure to the game early, but late-swapping is in play with a few games starting in the 2pm window. Manny Machado is also cheap because of some struggles this season. The star third baseman costs $3,600 with six home runs in the books and a 91 WRC+ over 205 plate appearances this year. Gary Sanchez has five home runs with a 48.4% hard-hit rate in his 49 plate appearances, when he makes contact the ball always travels far and fast. Jake Cronenworth has six long balls and a 96 WRC+, he hit 17 home runs and created runs 10% better than average last year and needs to do more overall, but he is cheap and potentially impactful in this lineup. Matt Carpenter has not been good this year, he has four home runs and an 87 WRC+ in 156 tries. Rougned Odor and Trent Grisham are playable across a large volume of stacks, but they should be the lowest-owned Padres hitters. The Rockies are facing Snell who is a good pitcher in a vacuum, despite his issues with depth and free passes. Colorado is in play however, the 5.20-run implied total cannot be ignored, even with the lousy lineup this team offers. Charlie Blackmon has a 97 WRC+ and is mostly a slap-hitting correlated scoring play these days, he has five home runs on the season with a .156 ISO. Jurickson Profar has an 81 WRC+ and no real contact profile to speak of. Ryan McMahon and Randal Grichuk have decent power marks at 5.46 and 5.77 in our home run model, McMahon leads the team with nine home runs, Grichuk only has one but has been good in his triple-slash and in creating runs 16% better than average by WRC+. Elehuris Montero is a premium prospect who is yet to do much at this level, he is cheap on the right side of the plate, which is also true of Ezequiel Tovar and Alan Trejo. Rookie Brenton Doyle also hits righty, he has an 11.6% barrel rate and four home runs in 117 plate appearances and is interesting at a $3,200 price tag. Austin Wynns closes out the projected lineup at $2,700.
Play: bats bats bats, and watch the weather
Update Notes:
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