The gargantuan 12-game MLB DFS slate would have put us in hurry-up mode today even without the additional smashes of the snooze button this morning. The day’s pitching slates on both DraftKings and FanDuel are hobbitlike, broad around the middle with a low peak. The board does not feature many, or any, true aces, but there are several high-end second-tier starters and a long list of good-not-great options from the middle of their respective team rotations. The options at the plate are myriad, the Dodgers are in Cincinnati’s bandbox, there is a Coors game with high totals on both sides, and several other options see premium hitting squads facing targetable pitchers. The giant slate demands a broad spread of lineup combinations, with a focus more on the combinations rather than any one specific point of popularity. As we were discussing in the rotoscouts Discord this morning, the public as a whole tends to get too aggressive in worrying about individual ownership of players, or specific teams and loses focus on the true key, which is the overall combinations within a lineup. Creating a diverse pool of lineups, from the best possible options, is the recommended approach. P.S. happy Elly De La Cruz day!
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Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/6/23
Chicago White Sox (+131/3.93) @ New York Yankees (-142/4.66)
The White Sox land in the Bronx to face Clarke Schmidt and the potentially Judgeless Yankees. The big slugger is waiting for the results from the investigation into his potentially broken big toe and may require a stint on the injured list, he seems very unlikely to play tonight regardless of what that outcome says. Chicago’s lineup comes in with renewed health and in mostly full form after the returns of several key players in recent weeks. Schmidt has been a bit up and down overall this season, partly because of some quick hooks on the part of manager Aaron Boone, and his ERA reflects a few inherited runs scoring against relievers. The starter has a 5.01 ERA but a much better 3.79 xFIP with an effective 26% strikeout rate and an 11% swinging-strike rate for the season. Schmidt has had difficulties with left-handed hitters, but the White Sox lineup is primarily right-handed, particularly their key power hitters, which should play well for the Yankees’ righty. Schmidt projects in the middle of the broad pitching board at $7,900/$7,700, there are certainly worse plays for the money tonight. Of course, this game is to be played in Yankee Stadium’s hitter-friendly environment and Schmidt has given up too much premium contact overall. The righty has allowed a 9.8% barrel rate and 47% hard hits with 91.6 mph of average exit velocity so far this season. The White Sox projected lineup opens as usual, with star shortstop Tim Anderson, who is cheap at $4,600/$2,700 while struggling. Anderson missed a chunk of time but has now made 182 plate appearances and is still slashing just .273/.313/.320 with a .047 ISO and 77 WRC+, far afield from his typically stellar production. Andrew Benintendi is also cheap, the outfielder lands at $3,500/$2,800, which is also due to struggles. The typically sturdy and productive Benintendi is slashing just .275/.330/.355 with a .081 ISO and 89 WRC+, as a hit-tool and run creation specialist, Benintendi does not have much value if he is not hitting for a higher average and getting on base more frequently. As a cheap correlated scoring play for MLB DFS, the outfielder is definitely on the board when going to White Sox. Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez are the team’s power core. Robert carried the White Sox, for whatever that was worth, over their lousy start, he has 13 home runs and a .251 ISO with a 120 WRC+ in 240 plate appearances in a true breakout. Jimenez missed a lot of time early this season and has missed most of the past few ears, but when he is healthy he is a power-hitting star. He has five home runs with a 108 WRC+ over his 136 plate appearances thus far in 2023. Yoan Moncada is a cheap talent at the hot corner, he is slashing .245/.303/.382 with a 90 WRC+ in 119 plate appearances after missing time. The switch-hitter will get shots at Schmidt and the short porch in right field from the left side of the plate. Andrew Vaughn has seven home runs with a .181 ISO and a sturdy contact profile that includes a 50.3% hard-hit rate, he is a good option hitting sixth if stacking White Sox. Yasmani Grandal and Gavin Sheets will also take a few pokes from the left side of the plate, they are a mixed bag of quality, Grandal is an affordable catcher with moderate power upside and on-base acumen, and Sheets has home run potential with seven on the board and a .185 ISO in 141 plate appearances. Elvis Andrus is bad, we have proof. For MLB DFS purposes, for a few shares in a lot of stacks of White Sox, he can surely produce the odd helpful game, but the infielder is sitting at .194/.271/.245 over 156 plate appearances in which he has created runs 55% worse than average. A fan might be better at this point, “whoever is seated in section 409, row 23, seat 6 come on down…”
The Yankees are facing Lucas Giolito who checks in at a fair $8,900/$9,000 price and looks like a playable piece on both sites. If Judge is confirmed out of the Yankees lineup the spot for Giolito only improves, but the righty has not been spotless in his performances this season. Giolito has a 4.08 ERA and 4.45 xFIP for the season and his strikeout rate has dipped from 25.4% last year and 27.9% in 2021 to just 23.9% so far this season. He is inducing a swinging-strike rate within a tenth of a point of last year’s mark, but is generating fewer strikes overall, by a small amount, and has not put hitters away as effectively. His 10.3% barrel rate and 40% hard-hit rate are also both up year-over-year, though his 3.81% home run rate is not mismatched with last year’s 3.44% or the 3.75% from 2021. Giolito is a good second-tier starter overall, on a slate of this nature, particularly when he is priced at these levels, he is one of the better options. There is a significant upside for strikeouts in the Yankees lineup, though that does not start with Gleyber Torres in the leadoff role. The second baseman has nine home runs and a 111 WRC+ and is striking out just 12.5% of the time this season, shaving 10 points off his strikeout rate from last year in a nice step forward. Anthony Rizzo is striking out 24.1% of the time this year but he has been excellent overall, carrying the team for stretches with 11 home runs and a 138 WRC+. Rizzo struck out less last season at just 18.4%, but the tradeoff has been a good one for what he has done at the plate this season. Giancarlo Stanton is back in the Yankees lineup, he has a 21% strikeout rate in 62 plate appearances this year but was at 30.3% in 452 tries last year. Stanton has light tower power, he is one of the best options for home runs on any given slate and hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball not named Aaron Judge or Elly De La Cruz (you’ll see). The hulking slugger is always in play, he costs $4,800/$3,600 in the outfield but there is not a ton to like around the top-three. Willie Calhoun is projected to land in the cleanup spot, with Josh Donaldson hitting sixth. Donaldson has had good power in seasons past, he hit two home runs in his return and has three for the season in 25 plate appearances, Calhoun hits from the left side which is presumably where the notion that he will hit fourth comes from. He has three home runs in 121 plate appearances while slashing .241/.314/.380. Jake Bauers is up to .238/.342/.524 with a .286 ISO and five home runs in 76 plate appearances after a big Sunday. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a backup utility man who is not great at the plate and has a 69 WRC+, Jose Trevino is a defense-first catcher, and Anthony Volpe has been 25% worse than average creating runs while striking out 30.6% of the time and slashing .193/.268/.363 but his nine home runs and 13 stolen bases have appeal.
Play: Lucas Giolito, Clarke Schmidt, some White Sox bats/stacks (work in a lefty/switch hitter), Yankees bats/stacks in even smaller doses
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+219/3.34) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-243/5.27)
The Athletics come in as massive underdogs against the Pirates, with surging righty Mitch Keller on the mound. Keller seems to have truly finally put it all together, right after everyone gave up on him. The frustrating righty has an outstanding 30.4% strikeout rate and a 5.6% walk rate with a 3.25 ERA and 2.99 xFIP over 74.2 innings and 12 starts. His 10.4% swinging-strike rate and 29.9% CSW% are both up several points year-over-year and he has been excellent at limiting home runs and curbing launch angle, despite allowing a 10.4% barrel rate. Keller’s 31.3% hard-hit rate and just 86.4 mph of average exit velocity have kept home runs to just 2.29% so far this season. The reduction in walks, improvement in strike-throwing, and Keller’s ability to limit home runs against have come together beautifully this season, the righty is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $11,300 and sits second on DraftKings at $10,900, and he earns it with the highest pitching projection on our board today. The Athletics have been mostly inept this season, the active roster ranks 28th in baseball with an 83 WRC+ against right-handed pitching and has shown no real power in the split with just a .131 ISO while adding a hefty 25.1% strikeout rate that ties with the Giants and Mariners for second-worst in the split, the Twins land worst at a whopping 26.9%. Oakland’s lousy lineup opens with Esteury Ruiz, who has 29 stolen bases after swiping another one last night. Ruiz is always a correlated scoring play with his speed, he just needs better teammates and maybe a slightly higher on-base percentage to truly excel at his cheap prices. Ryan Noda has been effective from the left side of the plate, he has six home runs and a 147 WRC+ with a .204 ISO and is getting on base at an elite .403 clip on the back of a 19.4% walk rate over 201 plate appearances. Righty outfielder Ramon Laureano has mid-range power and speed for cheap pricing in the third spot in the lineup, which is also true of lefty Seth Brown. JJ Bleday adds a bit of left-handed pop to the fifth spot at just $2,300/$2,400 in the outfield as well. The 1-5 spots are the primary focus when looking at stacks of Athletics hitters in this configuration. Aledmys Diaz, Jace Peterson, Shea Langeliers, and Nick Allen round out the projected lineup. Langeliers is an interesting cheap catcher with power when he makes contact, he has a 9.8% barrel rate with seven home runs in 200 plate appearances.
The Pirates lineup will be facing punching bag starter James Kaprielian who has a 20.9% strikeout rate with an 8.12 ERA and 5.90 xFIP in seven starts and 37.2 innings and was not good over 134 innings last season. Kaprielian is a very low end play at $5,200/$6,200, he does not seem likely to provide value even at those low prices. The Pirates lineup features a healthy top end with Tucupita Marcano stepping into the projected leadoff role ahead of team stars Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen. Marcano is slashing .267/.325/.457 with three home runs, four stolen bases, and a .190 ISO in 117 plate appearances. Reynolds has seven home runs and eight stolen bases, McCutchen reverses that with eight home runs and seven steals. Jack Suwinski is a solid power hitter to find at just $3,000/$3,100 in the outfield. The lefty has 11 home runs with a .255 ISO on a 16.5% barrel rate and 43.3% hard hits in his 189 plate appearances so far this season. The power is not mysterious or surprising, Suwinski hit 19 home runs in 372 plate appearances last year with sturdy premium contact numbers. Carlos Santana and Ke’Bryan Hayes are moderately playable mix-ins from the fifth and sixth spots in the lineup. Santana hits from both sides of the plate but has been 10% worse than average for run creation and is not hitting for power. Hayes hits the ball hard but does not produce much statistically. Ji-Hwan Bae, Josh Palacios, and Austin Hedges round out the projected lineup.
Play: Mitch Keller aggressively and despite popularity, Pirates bats/stacks with a focus on the top-6, minor Athletics hedge/contrarian shares
Update Notes:
Arizona Diamondbacks (-132/5.38) @ Washington Nationals (+121/4.74)
The matchup in the nation’s capital sees two low-end starters taking the mound and pushing run totals up for the opposing lineups. Righty Jake Irvin is starting for the home team, he has a 17.7% strikeout rate with a 13.7% walk rate over six starts and 27 innings in 2023. Irvin has posted a 5.67 ERA and 5.87 xFIP with a 1.63 WHIP, and the rookie is inducing just a 5.5% swinging-strike rate with a 24.2% CSW%. At a 5.38-run implied team total, Arizona is looking like one of the potentially highest-scoring options outside of Coors Field tonight. Irvin is not a very realistic option even at $5,300/$6,700. Pavin Smith should see the leadoff spot tonight, the lefty is cheap at $3,600/$2,900 and he still offers eligibility at first base in addition to his typical outfield positioning on the blue site. Smith has five home runs but just a .159 ISO and 92 WRC+ in 148 plate appearances, but his 8.3% barrel rate and 43.8% hard-hit rate are encouraging for more to come and he would be in a good spot in the lineup for correlated scoring. Ketel Marte has created runs 18% better than average this season while slashing .274/.336/.479 with a .205 ISO and nine home runs. The second baseman costs $5,000/$3,300, he joins Ozzie Albies as under-appreciated options at their position, though the Braves star is the better player head-to-head. Corbin Carroll has 10 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 229 mostly outstanding plate appearances. The rookie has created runs 41% better than average this year and he has a .236 ISO that is second-best on the team. Christian Walker is our overall home run pick for the day, he has a 13.34 to lead the team in our home run model and his 12 so far this season is also a team-leading mark. Walker has a nine percent barrel rate and 41.9% hard-hit rate with a .230 ISO. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. costs just $4,300/$3,400 despite slashing .310/.359/.550 with a .240 ISO and creating runs 44% better than average in his 217 plate appearances this year. Gurriel has nine home runs and a 48.8% hard-hit rate and has struck out in just 16.1% of his plate appearances, he is a terrific player and should cost more on both MLB DFS sites. Gurriel should be one of the most frequently used hitters when rostering stacks of Diamondbacks tonight. Josh Rojas and Gabriel Moreno are valuable positional options that can provide individual upside at lower ownership and cheap prices. Jake McCarthy has blazing speed and moderate power, he is slashing just .187/.267/.264 over 101 plate appearances and was already sent to the minors once this year. The outfielder does have 10 stolen bases in the small sample, despite the ineptitude at the plate and in reaching first base. Geraldo Perdomo is a playable infield option for cheap prices at $3,900/$2,900. He has cooled significantly after rampaging through an earlier part of the season, but even settling in around the current .279/.380/.471 with a 132 WRC+ and .191 ISO would make him a very productive option for these prices in the infield. The Diamondbacks are one of the best options at the plate tonight.
The Nationals lineup is better against lefties, a notion that we have explored several times in this space this season. The team’s hitters remain lousy overall and they are very cheap, but the matchup against Tommy Henry is a positive one for hitters and the team is carrying a healthy 4.74-run implied total in Vegas. The Nationals’ active roster has a collective 111 WRC+ against lefties this season, though that ranks them just 15th, in the dead middle of the league. The team has just a .135 ISO in the split but they are difficult for lefties to strike out with just an 18.1% mark, the third-best in baseball. Henry has struck out just 15% of opposing hitters over 41 innings in seven starts this season. The southpaw does have an effective 11.1% swinging-strike rate but his 24.1% CSW% is disproportionately low for that level of swing-and-miss, and he simply does not put hitters away. He has also allowed an 8.8% barrel rate with a 3.59% home run rate, though his 32% hard hits and 86.5 mph of average exit velocity are actually outstanding. The Nationals will have to sequence and create runs, but there should be plenty of contact available for them to do just that, and Henry adds to the mix with an ugly 9.6% walk rate and 1.24 WHIP, the lefty’s 3.73 ERA is misleading, his 5.43 xFIP is far more honest. Lane Thomas has eight home runs for the season and is a better hitter against lefties, he has a 10.08 to lead the team in our home run model today. Luis Garcia is slashing .267/.306/.388 with an 87 WRC+ this year. Joey Meneses and Stone Garrett are projected to bookend Jeimer Candelario, the two righties are good enough options when going to stacks of Nationals, but Candelario is slashing .231/.315/.308 with a .077 ISO and 71 WRC+ this season against lefties. The switch-hitter has always been better on the other side of the dish as a lefty bat against right-handed pitching, he has a .247 ISO and 129 WRC+ this season against righties and has actually been somewhat underrated in the split. Catcher Keibert Ruiz has been mentioned in this space several times recently for the idea of lurking power potential that aligns very nicely with his extremely low strikeout rate. Ruiz could come roaring to life at any point, he costs just $3,600/$2,900 against a bad pitcher on the correct side of splits tonight. Dominic Smith, Alex Call, and CJ Abrams round out the projected lineup, Call is semi-interesting because he is right-handed but he has not been good overall this year.
Play: Diamondbacks bats/stacks enthusiastically, moderate shares of Nationals bats as a mid-range value option
Update Notes:
Houston Astros (+118/3.58) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-128/4.01)
A pair of good pitchers will be facing two good lineups in the showdown between the Astros and Blue Jays tonight. The two teams are in a very different spot than yesterday when they were among the most highly-totaled options on the shorter slate. Toronto will be going with their number-one starter, Kevin Gausman, who is probably the day’s best overall pitcher and the closest this slate has to a true ace. Gausman has a 32.9% strikeout rate this season, up nicely from the 28.3% he posted in 174.2 innings and 31 outings last year and the 29.3% he put up in a terrific 2021 season that saw him throw 192 innings in 33 starts. The righty has a 2.76 ERA and nearly identical 2.73 xFIP over 75 innings and 12 starts this season, he racks up the punchouts and is reliable for pitching deep into ballgames while chasing both wins and quality starts. For the $11,000/$11,100 salary, Gausman is one of the most reliable options at any position on this slate. The lineup he will be facing is a challenge, of course, there are several premium hitters that he will have to navigate, but this is a case of good pitching having a strong chance to get through good hitting while retaining upside for a ceiling score. The Astros’ projected lineup lacks Jose Altuve, who is nursing an injury. Mauricio Dubon leads off in an overall downgrade to the stack’s potential, but he is not awful with a 92 WRC+ in 194 plate appearances at a cheap price. Jeremy Pena has just a 6.3% barrel rate and 33.7% hard-hit rate, both are down several points year-over-year. The shortstop is affordable but he has not been great, despite maintaining a 105 WRC+. Yordan Alvarez has 16 home runs and a .304 ISO, he is a deadly hitter lurking in the third spot that Gausman will have to work his way through three times to find success at his prices. Alvarez has an 18.8% barrel rate and 55.6% hard-hit rate while slashing .278/391/.582 and creating runs 67% better than average, he is easily one of the best in baseball. Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker have struggled somewhat to fully engage in the season. Both have produced in spots and have positive marks across the board, neither has been nearly as bad as Jose Abreu, but we need more from both players in general. Bregman has eight home runs and a 114 WRC+ while Tucker has eight home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 125 WRC+, again both have been good and are very playable when going to this team but there should be a bit more. Abreu has been atrocious over 243 plate appearances, the former star is slashing a miserable .24/.276/.264 with a .050 ISO and 51 WRC+, maybe he can borrow Kevin Kiermaier’s contact lenses while he visits Toronto. Chas McCormick is our favorite bat from the bottom of the lineup, the outfielder has mid-range power and speed with a .224 ISO, five home runs, and four stolen bases in 112 plate appearances. Corey Julks had a huge day at the plate yesterday, he is now slashing .258/.275/.406 with five home runs and six stolen bases in 160 plate appearances but still sits 15% below average for run creation on the whole. Martin Maldonado rounds out the lineup.
The Blue Jays will be facing excellent rookie right-hander Hunter Brown, who lands at $10,300 on both sites tonight. Brown draws a difficult opponent, but he should be up to the challenge and has been terrific throughout his 11 starts this year. The righty has a 3.61 ERA and an even better 2.98 xFIP with a sharp 28.8% strikeout rate and just a 7.8% walk rate. He has induced 11.7% swinging strikes and 29.3% CSW% and has kept home runs to just 1.56% on the back of a 4.6-degree average launch angle allowed. Brown has given up a few barrels at 8.2% and he allows hard hits with a 44% rate and 90.4 mph of average exit velocity, but he has been very good at keeping the ball down and in the yard. There is a chance that Brown goes under-owned for his talent at these prices, he has the potential to hit a ceiling even with a tough opponent, though several of the Blue Jays’ best hitters are also outstanding at limiting strikeouts. The rookie ranks among the top options on the slate, but most of the obvious veteran names land slightly above him in better matchups. The Blue Jays can be rostered against Brown as a mid-range stacking option, but they are somewhat limited as is clear from just a 4.01-run implied team total. The star trio at the top of the lineup is always in play, George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. provide an excellent blend of power and speed across three spots in the lineup and make for a great start to any stack. Springer has been scuffling somewhat and sits two percent below average for run creation on the whole, but he has been much better over a long period of time and is discounted at his current prices. Bichette has been 48% better than average for run creation, Guerrero sits 29% above average. Brandon Belt got the night off last night but slots into the cleanup role in today’s projected lineup. The lefty has home run upside in most matchups, but Brown’s ability to cap power – so far – is keeping that in check to a degree. Belt has a 126 WRC+ in his 161 plate appearances however, he has not relied on power much this season and has remained productive, he is viable as a cheap unpopular play when rostering Blue Jays. Matt Chapman has immense power but he has cooled significantly and still sits at just eight home runs. Whit Merrifield is a good hit tool and speed option for correlated scoring, he seems likely to be heavily involved if the Blue Jays get to Brown tonight, given the skillset. Daulton Varsho costs just $3,600/$2,900, he has 10 home runs and a .173 ISO in a mostly down season at the plate. Alejandro Kirk and Kevin Kiermaier round out the projected lineup.
Play: Kevin Gausman, Hunter Brown, minor shares of contrarian bats on either side
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (-105/3.80) @ Cleveland Guardians (-103/3.78)
The Red Sox and Guardians will square 0ff in Cleveland tonight in another game that has a pair of low run totals on the board in Vegas. Sin City seems to have faith in Guardians righty Shane Bieber, the Red Sox are clipped at just a 3.80-run implied team total in essentially a pick ’em game. Bieber has not been himself so far this season, the righty has just a 16.9% strikeout rate with a 10.1% swinging-strike rate and it seems as though he strikes out four hitters every time out (seriously, eight of his 12 starts Bieber has “exactly four gallons” strikeouts). Despite the major dip in strikeouts, Bieber has pitched deep into a number of games this year, and he is carrying just a 3.72 ERA and 4.33 xFIP. His swinging-strike rate and CSW% are both way down, his walks are up, and his premium contact is up, but overall he has not been as entirely bad as the industry at large is probably thinking. This is not an enthusiastic endorsement at $9,600/$9,200, but the strikeout downturn is somewhat baked into those prices already and Boston is only 15th-best with a 103 collective WRC+ and a .170 ISO against righties this year. Bieber projects fairly well even after allowing for some additional values from this year’s downturn, he is affordable and will probably not be overly popular. He will have to navigate a good top end in the Boston lineup but gains ground as things thin out after cleanup hitter Masataka Yoshida. With a team-leading 142 WRC+ the first-year lefty slots into the outfield at a fair $5,000/$3,600, he has seven home runs and a .183 ISO while slashing .312/.389/.495 this season. Yoshida follows Alex Verdugo, an excellent left-handed leadoff hitter who has a .365 on-base percentage and 125 WRC+, Justin Turner, who is still effective in the late stages of his career with seven home runs and a 111 WRC+, and Rafael Devers who has 13 home runs but has dipped all the way to just a 105 WRC+. Devers costs just $5,200/$3,700 in an interesting discount spot. The Red Sox’ top four is the clear focus when going to this team, there is potential in a both-sided matchup for these hitters against Bieber. The lineup continues after Yoshida with Jarren Duran who has cooled off somewhat in recent weeks, and Triston Casas, who has not truly gotten going this season. Casas has six home runs and an 87 WRC+, though his 13.1% barrel rate is a good contact mark for those looking for positives. Meanwhile, Bobby Dalbec is raking in AAA. Enrique Hernandez, Emmanuel Valdez, and Reese McGuire round out the low-end bottom third.
The Guardians have been bad this season. The team’s struggles have been featured at length in this space, they are underwhelming on the whole and seem to be getting worse with even Jose Ramirez down to just a 102 WRC+. Ramirez is the only player in the projected Cleveland lineup with a WRC+ that lands above the waterline, the team is not hitting for power, they are not really stealing bases, and they are not sequencing, their lone attribute remains an ability to avoid strikeouts, but it has not helped them produce runs. James Paxton will be on the mound for Boston. In four starts and 19 innings in his return after not pitching for two years, Paxton has a 33.8% strikeout rate and a 4.26 ERA with a 3.55 xFIP. He has allowed too much power and premium contact in the tiny sample, but his 5.00% home run rate on 41.3% hard hits and 90.7 mph of average exit velocity on a 13% barrel rate can probably be chalked up to happenstance. Overall, Paxton has been outstanding in his return, most of the damage came in his one weak outing, and the strikeout totals are flabbergasting for a pitcher who had not been on a mound for relevant innings, in truth, since 2019. The lefty projects well in this matchup, he is a viable option at $8,600/$9,400 with more appeal at the DraftKings price. The Guardians lineup is a low-end option for stacking. Steven Kwan has been seven percent worse than average for run creation this year and does not hit for power, his 10 stolen bases are fine, but there has not been value with his triple-slash taking a massive dip. Tyler Freeman has made 34 plate appearances and has a 69 WRC+ in the tiny sample, he was at a 76 in 86 opportunities last year. Ramirez has six home runs and five stolen bases, which was also true in mid-May. Josh Bell has four home runs and a 91 WRC+ with a .123 ISO, the memory of a power hitter who mashed 27 home runs in 568 plate appearances in 2021 is fading. Gabriel Arias, Mike Zunino, Andres Gimenez, Brayan Rocchio, and Myles Straw round out the projected lineup. Gimenez has a 5.31 in our home run model, he has disappointed at the plate this year with an 88 WRC+, a .114 ISO, and just three home runs in 220 opportunities. Zunino has not done much with the bat in 125 plate appearances, he has three home runs and his typically amazing contact profile has vanished.
Play: James Paxton, Shane Bieber, moderate shares of Red Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-168/6.00) @ Cincinnati Reds (+154/4.63)
The Dodgers are carrying a higher run total than either of the teams playing at Coors Field today, which is quite telling about their opportunity in a matchup against Luke Weaver in Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly environment. Weaver’s reputation is worse than his actual ability on the mound, he has a 22.5% strikeout rate and just a 4.8% walk rate in 43.2 innings and eight starts this season, pitching to a 5.36 ERA but a 4.22 xFIP while inducing a quite good 11% swinging-strike rate with a 29.2% CSW%. When it comes to premium contact, however, Weaver runs into a wall at 90.1 mph, which is the same speed at which hitters send balls back at him on average. Weaver has allowed an 11.2% barrel rate with a 44% hard-hit rate and 5.88% home runs, which are problematic marks for power but not unfixable for the otherwise roughly league-average starter. Weaver is not as bad as the public may think, but that does not make him a playable option in this spot. The Dodgers bats are the clear focus for MLB DFS purposes, the team will be crushingly popular and will probably be worth it. The projected lineup includes the usual star power up top, with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Max Muncy. None of those players needs to be sold, they are outstanding at what they do. Betts provides a little of everything and adds multi-position eligibility at second base and in the outfield on DraftKings with additional upside as a three-way play with shortstop eligibility added on the blue site. Freeman is a fantastic run creator with an excellent triple-slash and very good power, he has 10 home runs and a 158 WRC+ that leads the team. Smith is perhaps the best-hitting catcher in baseball at .308/.411/.521 with eight home runs and just a 9.4% strikeout rate, but that is a tight race. Muncy is a devastating lefty power hitter who has 18 home runs this season. JD Martinez adds another 14 home runs to the team’s tally, the veteran has been outrageously good this year with a .345 ISO and 54.8% hard-hit rate with 18.5% barrels. Jason Heyward is a good left-handed bat with some power at just $2,600 in the outfield on both sites. Miguel Vargas, James Outman, and Miguel Rojas close out the projected lineup. Outman is the most interesting option with his left-handed power upside, but we may see David Peralta land in this lineup as well. Essentially anyone wearing Dodgers blue at the plate tonight is in play for MLB DFS purposes.
The Reds are in a similarly-good hitting environment but come nowhere near their opponent’s total with just a 4.63 against effective righty Tony Gonsolin. Over seven starts and 35.2 innings this season, the righty has a microscopic 1.77 ERA but a far more visible 5.19 xFIP if one knows where to look. Gonsolin is good, but his 17.7% strikeout rate is limited, his 9.8% swinging-strike rate and 23.6% CSW% are ineffectual, and he allows enough premium contact to give up damage with a 7.9% barrel rate, 89.2 mph of average exit velocity, and a 39.6% hard-hit rate. There is perhaps a bit of luck involved in limiting hitters to just a 2.84% home run rate, given all the contact and a 14.2-degree average launch angle. There is definitely luck involved in the ERA to xFIP gap. Gonsolin is playable at $8,000/$8,500, the matchup against the low-end Reds is a good one, even in this hitting environment, but he is probably not one with which to get carried away, the Dodgers’ righty projects in the middle of our pitching board. It is worth noting that Gonsolin was better for strikeouts in both of the past two seasons, he had a 23.9% rate last year in 130.1 innings and a 27.2% mark in 55.2 innings and 13 starts the year before. The Reds lineup is projected to open with the debut of heralded “next big thing” rookie Elly De La Cruz. If this player is available in your season-long league, run, don’t walk, and make the pickup right now. We’ll wait. FAAB bids should be upwards of 50% of any remaining budget, this is an outstanding player who hits the ball on a Judgian/Stantonian level when it comes to his premium contact rates in the minors. He has outstanding speed to go with light-tower power. Over 186 plate appearances in AAA this season, De La Cruz has 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases with a .335 ISO and 152 WRC+. There are minor questions about strikeouts and his ability to sustain a high walk rate in the Show, but everything points to star power with this player. De La Cruz costs the dead minimum and will be explosively popular on DraftKings. He was added to the FanDuel player pool for $2,800 when his call-up was announced in the afternoon. Matt McLain has two home runs and a 137 WRC+ in a productive 90 plate appearances since his call-up, the shortstop is a good value option at the position. Jonathan India and Spencer Steer are productive right-handed hitters who have a 110 and 125 WRC+ in 265 and 242 plate appearances while flashing mid-range power and speed. Frisky Jake Fraley has some power potential with seven home runs from the left side of the plate. Catcher Tyler Stephenson got involved with a home run last night, he hits infrequent bombs and has three on the year as a cheap backstop. Kevin Newman, Will Benson, and Stuart Fairchild are not overly awe-inducing as a final third, Fairchild is the best option in the bunch, he has a pair of home runs and seven stolen bases and hit five home runs with a decent contact profile in a small sample last year.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks aggressively with public popularity likely, Elly De La Reds bats/stacks in moderate doses
Update Notes:
New York Mets (+148/4.46) @ Atlanta Braves (-162/5.66)
Another game with a loaded non-Coors total sees the heavily favored hometown Braves taking on the division-rival Mets. Bryce Elder will be on the bump for Atlanta, the righty has a sparkling 1.92 ERA and a truthful 3.64 xFIP that is also very good. Elder has pitched to a 21.1% strikeout rate over 11 starts and 65.2 largely effective innings this season in a bit of a breakout. He has limited walks to just 7.2% and induces a high-quality 11.1% swinging-strike rate that somewhat belies his 26.9% CSW%. The starter has allowed a high hard-hit rate at 47.3% with 91.1 mph of average exit velocity, but he is another pitcher who is generally effective at cutting launch angle and keeping the ball in the yard. Elder has allowed just a 1.51% home run rate on a 6.5-degree average launch angle this season. The Mets have been up and down this year, Elder looks like a good option who probably won’t be as popular as others on the slate for $9,400/$10,000, he is in play on both sites and seems like a good option to chase a win and a quality start. Brandon Nimmo and slugger Pete Alonso have been the two best Mets this season. The leadoff man has a 128 WRC+ while getting on at a .375 clip for a cheap price in the outfield while the cleanup hitter fills first base at a fair $5,300/$4,100. Alonso has 21 home runs to lead the league for the season, his .307 ISO is outstanding and he has been mashing with a 16.6% barrel rate. In between and after them in the lineup has been a bit more of a roller coaster, but there is obvious quality in the long term. Francisco Lindor has been a star at shortstop for years, he costs just $4,700/$3,300 and has 10 home runs but is scuffling in his triple-slash and has created runs just eight percent below average. Jeff McNeil is a correlated scoring play with a slap-hitting approach. Brett Baty is a premium rookie who lands at third base at a cheap $3,200/$2,700 for a player who has four home runs and a 51.6% hard-hit rate in just 143 plate appearances. Starling Marte, Daniel Vogelbach, Mark Canha, or any of the Mets’ other veteran moving parts are playable from late in the lineup at fair prices despite any current-year struggles. Francisco Alvarez is a truly interesting power option if he slots in at catcher, if we get Tomas Nido he is a gap in the lineup as a defense-only catcher. Mark Vientos would be another interesting young hitter to find in the lineup, but the spot is not ideal and the team has just a 4.46-run implied total.
The loaded Braves draw righty Carlos Carrasco who has made two straight effective starts, against the Cubs at Wrigley then against the Phillies at home, in his last two games. Carrasco is a capable veteran pitcher, but even in those games he just got by on clean depth in a 6.2-inning and 6.0-inning start, he struck out only four but allowed just one run in each game. Carrasco is pushing high power marks in the direction of Atlanta’s bats and his 13.9% strikeout rate for the season should have the team salivating for contact. Carrasco has a 5.74 ERA and 5.42 xFIP in six starts and 31.1 innings, he missed time with an injury to draw some of those marks down, but he seems like a target on this slate. At $5,900/$6,900 there is minor upside on the idea of the veteran finding, say, six strikeouts in six innings, but the play is very thin and is best reserved for only a small number of SP2 shares on DraftKings if it is to be made at all. The Braves lineup should be rostered on both sites. Ronald Acuna Jr. has an 11.11 in our home run model and was going to be our home run pick until we went with a slightly less popular option. Acuna has 12 home runs and 26 stolen bases on his way to a 35/50 season or better. The superstar has a 161 WRC+ and is worth any asking price. Matt Olson has 17 home runs and a .286 ISO this year, the first baseman is an excellent second man in for expensive Braves stacks. Austin Riley and Sean Murphy are excellent power hitters from the right side, they have 10 and 11 home runs respectively this season. Riley slumped somewhat but has a .188 ISO and 108 WRC+ over 258 plate appearances on the whole, Murphy has a .254 ISO and 154 WRC+ as one of the best catchers in the game. Eddie Rosario won a game in style with a walk-off grand slam the other night, he has eight home runs and a .216 ISO with a 97 WRC+ and is now slashing a somewhat respectable .256/.283/.472. Ozzie Albies is a star second baseman, he has a dozen home runs and a .217 ISO, Marcell Ozuna has 11 home runs and a .240 ISO and would be a cleanup hitter or three-hitter on many teams. Orlando Arcia is always cheap and under-owned in the Braves infield from late in the lineup, he is a terrific option for differentiating stacks, particularly for just $2,700 with three-position eligibility on FanDuel. Arcia has four home runs and a 121 WRC+ in 144 plate appearances this year. Michael Harris II is still mired at just .168/.254/.252 with a 40 WRC+ and only two home runs and five stolen bases, we have to believe in the turnaround but this is getting concerning.
Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively, Bryce Elder, moderate shares of Mets bats/stacks, maybe a Carrasco SP2 dart or three on DraftKings(?)
Update Notes:
Baltimore Orioles (+115/3.85) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-125/4.25)
The Orioles have a matchup against scuffling Freddy Peralta who has not been pitching particularly deep into games or finding many strikeouts along the way. Peralta has a 23% strikeout rate and 4.62 ERA with a 4.39 xFIP in 11 starts and 60.1 innings. The righty is typically good at limiting premium contact and power, but he has had difficulty maintaining those traits this season. So far, Peralta has allowed a 9.6% barrel rate and 36.2% hard hits with a 3.77% home run rate, all of which are well up from the 3.5% barrels, 31.3% hard hits, and 1.89% home run rate he allowed last year in 17 starts as well as from the numbers he posted in 27 starts the year before. Peralta is inducing a similar swinging-strike rate but his CSW% has dipped by two points, he is walking more hitters and just does not seem quite right on the mound. The Orioles have the talent to take advantage, but they are carrying just a 3.85-run implied total in a matchup that may just be best left to small shares as a low priority. Peralta is very affordable however, at $7,700 on DraftKings he has particular appeal as an SP2 option that will probably not be as popular as his past track record dictates he should be. The current-year numbers are not wholly bad, Peralta has upside at his price and can even pay off the higher FanDuel salary in the right spot. The Orioles lineup opens with Adam Frazier, who has a 92 WRC+ in 208 plate appearances. He is followed by quality in the form of Adley Rutschman, who is also on that catcher short-list; Anthony Santander, who has a team-leading 5.67 in our home run model; and Austin Hays, who is slashing .301/.341/.487 with a .187 ISO and 128 WRC+ this year. Ryan Mountcastle and Gunnar Henderson are young players with major upside in their current forms and potential for much more in the long term, but both also have flaws as currently constructed. Mountcastle hits the ball very hard, he has a 15.6% barrel rate and 45.6% hard-hit rate with 11 home runs and a .201 ISO, but needs to get better with the hit tool and on-base skills. Henderson has six home runs with a .182 ISO and 101 WRC+, he strikes out at an aggressive 31.2% clip that demands more production. Aaron Hicks is blocking better young players and does not belong on this roster or in this game. Poor Colton Cowser. Josh Lester and Jorge Mateo round out the lineup, Mateo has fallen to $4,300/$2,900 but still has moderate power and blazing speed when he gets on base.
The Brewers are facing righty Kyle Gibson, who has a 15.9% strikeout rate and 4.61 xFIP with a 3.89 ERA on the surface in his 71.2 innings and 12 starts. Gibson provides depth in many starts, but he is more of an innings-eater at this point, his swinging-strike rate is just 8.5% and his CSW% sits at 25.7%. He has not been bad in terms of power or premium contact, but the ceiling is low for a pitcher who costs $7,500/$8,700. Gibson projects in the lower middle of our pitching board today. The Brewers lineup is a similarly middling option on this slate. The team has a 4.25-run total, the focus should be on the top of the lineup as well as any of the extreme values that the team has put into the batting order over the past few days. There is a strong upside for value, if nothing else, in Milwaukee’s lineup. Christian Yelich, Owen Miller, and Rowdy Tellez, along with catcher William Contreras, make up the primary bats for the Brewers, they land from 1-4 in an easy straight-line stack off the top for those looking to roster the obvious options. All of those players have been above average for run creation on the season, and they land at cheap-to-fair prices across the board. Brian Anderson is slated to hit fifth in the projected lineup, followed by Brice Turang, Luis Urias, a veteran power hitter in the infield who returned at the minimum last night and remains at the minimum price with three-position eligibility on the FanDuel slate, and Blake Perkins, a former second-round pick who also costs the minimum on FanDuel and just $2,200 on DraftKings. Jon Singleton is the other value name to look for, he is a minor league masher who has never landed at the MLB level and is playing in his age-31 season but has power potential and has been at the minimum price when he has played recently.
Play: Minor shares of any of the four corners are fine, Gibson is the lowest-end option among the four.
Update Notes:
St. Louis Cardinals (+123/4.48) @ Texas Rangers (-133/5.12)
The Cardinals draw Dane Dunning and it is surprising to see them carrying a total that does not begin with a five. At 4.48 implied runs, the Cardinals excellent lineup may slip under the radar for quality this evening. Dunning is not a bad pitcher, but he has proven more effective as a long reliever in the bullpen than as a starter. The righty has a 2.06 ERA but a 4.38 xFIP with just a 16.6% strikeout rate in 48 innings and five starts. Dunning made several extended appearances out of the bullpen, twice coming in for Jacob deGrom when the star left with injuries and filling in admirably, but he is targetable with the level of contact that is available. For $7,200/$8,100, Dunning does not look great on the mound for MLB DFS purposes. Brendan Donovan lands at $3,200/$2,600 in the leadoff role, the lefty is a productive correlated scoring play who has moderate potential for individual production. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, and Nolan Arenado are excellent for power with 34 combined home runs this season. Gorman has a 9.30 in our home run model to lead the team, he has 14 on the season, which is also a team-leading mark. Goldschmidt and Arenado each have 10 long balls this year and have been good for run creation. Willson Contreras is a playable catcher bat who has been better in past seasons. Alec Burleson and Paul DeJong provide cheap pop at low ownership from late lineup spots, but expectations should be kept in check in general with the two players. Jordan Walker is a premium rookie at a fair price, he has not produced much so far in the show but he is in play in this matchup from late in the lineup if he plays. Tommy Edman is an excellent wraparound option, he has power and speed in small doses and has created runs seven percent better than average this year.
The elite Rangers lineup is also in play against lefty Matthew Liberatore, who has made two starts and thrown 11 innings this season. The southpaw has an 18% strikeout rate in the two starts and an inning out of the bullpen, he was better for strikeouts in the minors, typically landing in the 23-25% range, but his mid-fours xFIP in those minor league seasons are uninspiring. Liberatore costs $6,400/$6,500, there is no real appeal in throwing him against the best run-creating lineup in the game. Marcus Semien has nine home runs and seven steals with a 144 WRC+ to lead the way for a lineup that is entirely comprised of players with above-average run-creation marks this season. The average WRC+ for the projected starting lineup for the Rangers is an outrageous 141, with only Mitch Garver at a small sample of 36 plate appearances. If we remove Garver, the average WRC+ drops only slightly to 136. This team has been outstanding for run creation and the returns of Garver and Ezequiel Duran only enhance their quality. The two-catcher lineup with both Garver and Jonah Heim adds interesting decision points for DraftKings, both are in play and can even be used in the same lineup in what would be a low-owned combination on the blue site. The second spot in the projected lineup, of course, belongs to excellent shortstop Corey Seager, who is 78% above average for run creation with six home runs in 126 plate appearances. Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, and Heim follow, they would be a quality stack all on their own. Lowe has six home runs and a 122 WRC+, Garcia has 14 home runs to lead the team, Jung sits second with 12. Heim has seven home runs and a .293/.343/.473 triple-slash in 204 plate appearances as a good option behind the plate. Duran slots in behind Garver, the inexpensive player has been terrific this year with a .307/.358/.521 triple-slash, a .214 ISO, and seven home runs in 151 plate appearances. Duran has three-position eligibility for $2,900 on FanDuel. Even Leody Taveras has been good this year, he has three home runs, five stolen bases, and a 121 WRC+ in 177 plate appearances.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks, Cardinals bats/stacks
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (-132/5.92) @ Colorado Rockies (+122/5.20)
In the interest of time, this is a Coors Field game, the Giants are using opener John Brebbia, who will shut down the Rockies over one or two innings before handing off to Sean Manaea who seems unlikely to repeat the trick of bulk relief quality in this ballpark. The Rockies are starting Dinelson Lamet, who used to be a good strikeout pitcher but has not been a regular starter, or good, for some time. Lamet drew a start last week, he struck out four while allowing five runs on seven hits in three innings. Apparently, this earned him another start. In a Coors Field game. All of this is to say that you should just play the bats at Coors as you would normally approach the option, the pitchers are not in play.
Projected Giants hitters of note include most of the lineup from top to bottom, with a particular focus on the 1-6 that features LaMonte Wade Jr.-Thairo Estrada-Joc Pederson-JD Davis-Mike Yastrzemski-Mitch Haniger. There is a ton of power in that group and the returns of Pederson and Estrada should not be overlooked. The lefties have major upside for power and there is run creation ability up and down. Blake Sabol is a capable cheap lefty with catcher eligibility late in the lineup, and Casey Schmitt fills things out with Patrick Bailey in the ninth spot in the projected order. The Rockies are a lower-end lineup in a great spot, the featured hitters include Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, Elias Diaz, Randal Grichuk, Nolan Jones, and Brenton Doyle. Jones and Doyle are potentially sneakier options with significant power upside from late in the lineup on either side of the plate, with a righty opener and lefty bulk reliever they are a good combination at what will probably be lower ownership than many teammates.
Play: bats bats bats
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (+101/4.99) @ Los Angeles Angels (-108/5.11)
The Cubs come in once again looking like a somewhat frisky option given their talents throughout the batting order and a healthy 4.99-run implied team total in a good matchup against Tyler Anderson, a lefty who has a 5.47 ERA and 6.06 xFIP in 52.2 innings and 10 starts this season. Anderson has allowed far too many free passes, he has a 10.5% walk rate and strikes out just 13.8% of opposing hitters, he lacks the ability to pitch his way out of jams, though he is rarely lousy for power or premium contact. This is a spot in which the Cubs’ ability to sequence and get on base will be key factors in success. The projected Chicago lineup opens with Nico Hoerner, who provides moderate power and good speed in the role. The infielder has 14 stolen bases and four home runs with a 104 WRC+ and gets on at a .342 clip this season. Dansby Swanson has a .364 on-base percentage with a 120 WRC+, his six home runs are low for his typical output, but we know there is major power and speed lurking in the shortstop for a good price. Ian Happ gets on at a fantastic .389 pace, he has a .122 WRC+ and four home runs with five stolen bases for $4,200/$2,900, which is too cheap in this opportunity. Seiya Suzuki has six home runs with a 120 WRC+ and a .358 on-base percentage this season. The slugger strikes out at an aggressive 26.3% pace but walks 12.1% of the time, he could stand to hit more balls over the fence, given his 9.5% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate. Patrick Wisdom has 14 home runs and a .291 ISO and is always cheap in the heart of the lineup, he costs just $4,000/$3,000 at third base on DraftKings and with outfield eligibility on the blue site. Yan Gomes, Trey Mancini, Miguel Amaya, and Christopher Morel are all interesting and playable from later in the lineup. While they do not truly maintain the on-base and sequencing theme we were exploring at the top end of the lineup, there is plenty of power in the group and they will end up lower-owned than some of their teammates.
With Hayden Wesneski on the mound, the Angels are drawing a healthy run total of their own. Los Angeles has major star power and a 5.11-run implied total against a pitcher with just a 17.6% strikeout rate and a 4.81 ERA with a 4.47 xFIP. Wesneski has good stuff, but it has not been overly effective at this level so far, he has an 8.3% swinging-strike rate and has allowed a ton of power and premium contact. The upside in throwing Angels power hitters at his 5.49% home run rate and 11.6% barrel rate for the season has major appeal in this spot. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, you just play them when you can if going to Angels, don’t overthink it. Brandon Drury has tremendous power for a cheap option at first or second base. Taylor Ward slots into the projected lineup in the cleanup spot, he has been up and down over time, and has just an 84 WRC+ with six home runs this year. Matt Thaiss is a cheap catcher with upside for power, he has three home runs and a healthy 10.8% barrel rate in his 125 opportunities. Hunter Renfroe is a power hitting star when he is going right, he has 11 home runs and a .199 ISO this season but looked better two weeks ago. Renfroe will shake off the dip, take advantage of any discounts available in his $3,700/$2,900 pricing, he will probably be popular in the exchange. Gio Urshela is not a great option, Zach Neto is a better hitter in the infield. Jared Walsh is a compelling left-handed power bat in the late part of the lineup, he has not done anything in 46 plate appearances this year, but he hit 29 home runs in 585 plate appearances in 2021.
Play: Angels bats/stacks, Cubs bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (+121/3.55) @ San Diego Padres (-131/4.03)
The final game of the night is another good pitching duel with two quality offenses checked somewhat in their implied totals in Vegas. Home starter Joe Musgrove looks like a quality option as he finally rounds into form for the season. Musgrove missed the first month and has pitched to a 4.71 ERA and 4.44 xFIP in seven starts and 36.1 innings but seems to be approaching his true form. The righty has a 21.3% strikeout rate and he will be facing a Mariners lineup that has some of the most free-swinging hitters in the game. The projected lineup has a collective 26.3% strikeout rate tonight. Musgrove has clear upside at $7,800, he is a smash play even if it does not work out on the DraftKings slate and he looks very good for $8,300 on FanDuel as well. Of course, there is power to spare in the Mariners’ lineup. A few hedge stacks would not be out of order, with a focus squarely on the premium power options. JP Crawford is not one of the power options and he has not been great since moving to the leadoff spot. Ty France is good for correlated scoring and gets involved regularly with a 116 WRC+, he is playable along with teammates in stacks. Julio Rodriguez has major power potential, he has 10 home runs and a .186 ISO on the season and we know there is more coming. Jarred Kelenic has 10 home runs but has cooled through May and into June. The lefty is good overall and arrived at long last, he should return to something approaching the early season form. Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, and Teoscar Hernadnez trade massive strikeout rates for power, they are an interesting group who could string together zeroes or double-digit scores for MLB DFS purposes tonight. Mike Ford and Jose Caballero close out the lineup.
The Padres are taking our last six minutes before showtime. The top-heaving lineup is carrying a low total against Logan Gilbert, a terrific right-handed starter. Gilbert is cheap at $9,900/$9,800 and could be a deceptively good option given his talent. He has a 28.7% strikeout rate and just a 4.3% walk rate for the year, while pitching to a 4.08 ERA and 3.18 xFIP, and has been widely regarded for his control and command through his young career. Gibson is a good option on the mound for his prices, a few hedge shares of premium Padres are fine, but Gilbert is a pitcher who will make them earn any fantasy points they score. Xander Bogaerts has dipped in quality but comes cheap for the slide, he is a good option at shortstop assuming a return to the lineup tonight. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto need no introduction from us to land in lineups, they are stars by any measure and are correctly priced across the industry. Manny Machado is cheap at $4,800/$2,800, he is a star who was sliding then got hurt, but that is a very low price given what Machado has done throughout his career. Jake Cronenworth is a viable correlated scoring piece ahead of the low-end options in the bottom half of the lineup. Those players include Rougned Odor, Matt Carpenter, Trent Grisham, and Austin Nola, any of whom are useable pieces in mix-and-match shares but not much more.
Play: Joe Musgrove, Logan Gilbert, minor shares of bats on either side as a hedge
Update Notes:
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