The Thursday evening main slates feature just four games with a 7:07 ET start on DraftKings and five games commencing at 6:05 ET on the blue site. The DraftKings slate was originally scheduled to include a White Sox vs Yankees game that has since become the second game in a doubleheader, scoring from that game will not count on the DraftKings slate and we will not feature it here. The slate includes several premium pitching options with only a few targetable starters taking the mound, which should create concentrated pools of ownership both on the mound and at the plate. Getting to some contrarian options on a slate of this nature could pay significant returns, this is not to say that one should select only the lowest-owned least likely late lineup players from the worst stacks, we simply want to target the somewhat less popular options or take a few shots against the good-not-unhittable pitchers with under-owned teams.
Join us at 4:00 ET for a LIVE Game-by-Game breakdown:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/8/23
Detroit Tigers (+212/3.18) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-235/4.93)
The first game of the evening lands only on the FanDuel slate, which costs the DraftKings crowd the opportunity to roster Zack Wheeler in an outstanding spot against the limited Tigers. Wheeler has a 4.33 ERA and a sharp 3.58 xFIP over 12 starts and 68.2 innings this season, putting up a 26.9% strikeout rate that so far is an exact match for his marks from last year. Both of those represent a dip in output from the terrific 29.1% that Wheeler posted in 2021, but he is a pitcher who is very good at limiting opposing offenses and racking up strikeouts while pitching deep into games. Against one of the worst teams in baseball and the worst team against right-handed pitching, Wheeler is aligned to post a very strong MLB DFS score in this matchup. Detroit’s active roster has a 70 WRC+ against righties this year. As bad as the Cleveland Guardians have been, their 82 WRC+ in the split that sits 29th out of 30 teams is still light years ahead away from the Tigers’ mark for ineptitude. The righty has limited home run output to just 1.70% on 5.2% barrels and a 36.6% hard-hit rate and just 86.5 mph of average exit velocity allowed. Limiting power and exit velocity is a sustained trait over multiple seasons for Wheeler, he is simply an excellent pitcher who is appropriately priced at $10,800 in this matchup. With both Framber Valdez and Spencer Strider checking in at higher salaries on the blue site, Wheeler looks like a very strong play who projects similarly. The uninspiring Tigers lineup is not a great option, but this is a slate on which we need to embrace a few contrarian plays, which at least makes them worth exploring. Zach McKinstry has provided quality plate appearances since slotting into the leadoff role. The lefty is slashing .272/.378/.411 with a 126 WRC+ in 181 plate appearances, he and projected ninth hitter Zack Short, who has made 59 plate appearances, are the only two players in the projected Tigers lineup carrying WRC+ marks above the waterline for the season. McKinstry is inexpensive at $2,800, he has four home runs and 10 stolen bases this season but would be more reliant on correlated scoring via his on-base skill in this matchup, given Wheeler’s ability to cap home run output. Javier Baez leads the team at 3.62 in our home run model, which is not a good number. Baez has three home runs and a .087 ISO with a 59 WRC+ in 235 plate appearances this season, which are also not good numbers. Spencer Torkelson has a few signs of life if one looks hard enough. As we have featured recently, the output has been very low-end, with a .219/.265/.306 triple-slash, a .130 ISO, and just five home runs, but hit hard-hit rate stands at 50% and he has cut strikeouts somewhat year-over-year. Nick Maton has six home runs and a .156 ISO but his .162/.286/.318 triple-slash is not encouraging as an option to continue a stretch of sequencing and run creation. Eric Haase is a cheap catcher who hit 22 home runs in 381 opportunities two years ago, lots of things happened two years ago that we also don’t really want to pay for tonight. Akil Baddoo has three home runs and six stolen bases, posting a 98 WRC+ over 162 plate appearances. Baddoo is one of the few playable pieces in the lineup but he has not been very good in any real sense. Jonathan Schoop, Tyler Nevin, and Short close out the projected lineup. Now that we have explored it, it seems safe to say that this is still a very low-end option, even on a short slate on which we want to find contrarian plays. The trick there is to find contrarian plays that still retain a bit of upside and ceiling, that is not going to be the case many times for this Tigers team if we roll this slate 1,000 times.
Detroit’s scheduled starter for Thursday is reliever Tyler Holton, who has worked up to three innings in relief but has not made any starts this season. Holton should be expected to serve as a multi-inning opener, with an upside to three innings, but no chance at qualifying for a win or quality start bonus. The team has not announced a bulk reliever and may just turn over to a true bullpen game. If they do go with a bulk reliever it seems likely to be Reese Olson, who would not be a candidate for DFS shares. Regardless of who or what the Tigers put on the mound this evening, the Phillies are looking like a reasonable team to stack. Philadelphia’s 4.93-run implied team total is the second-highest on the short slate, but there is a collection of somewhat similar team options carrying totals from 4.7 to 4.95. The projected Phillies lineup opens with Kyle Schwarber, who leads the squad with a 9.39 in our home run model this evening. Schwarber has hit 16 long balls on the season, posting a .252 ISO and a 103 WRC+ despite a .173 batting average. Schwarber gets on at a .322 clip and has a .425 slugging percentage, both numbers could be higher, the slugging percentage is down about 80 points year-over-year and more than 100 points from the .554 he posted in 2021. Schwarber is making less premium contact so far this year, his barrel rate has dipped from an outstanding 20.1% last year to a still-excellent 14.6% and his hard hits have taken the same ride, dropping from 54.4% to 48.9%. The slugger is a good candidate to get the power figured out, and those numbers can be noisy in smaller samples, he seems likely to look very much like last year’s numbers when the season comes to a close. Schwarber is cheap at $3,000 for all his power upside. Nick Castellanos is slashing .315/.360/.496 with a .181 ISO and 131 WRC+ in 258 plate appearances. The outfielder had a terrific March-April, cooled somewhat for a few weeks in May, and has roared his way into June with strong performances, but he remains affordable at $3,400. Bryce Harper slots into the outfield and has valuable eligibility at first base on the blue site as well. The star has made 132 plate appearances since his return, has three home runs, and has created runs 29% better than average, and his price is still somewhat low at $3,600. Harper is a $4,000 star on FanDuel, so we will happily take the discount and positional flexibility with zero concerns about his limited power output so far this year. Trea Turner may have checked in for the 2023 season at long last. The shortstop struggled badly over the season’s first two months but is showing some life at the plate with a drop in the batting order. Turner is slashing .240/.283/.394 with seven home runs and eight stolen bases overall but was productive over the past 10 days as May turned to June. For just $3,000 in the heart of the Phillies lineup, Turner is a dynamite option at shortstop regardless of any current-year struggles. JT Realmuto costs $2,800 at catcher, he can be utilized on FanDuel as if he were a first baseman, particularly with the team lacking a true impact option at the position outside of Harper’s eligibility. Realmuto has five home runs and eight stolen bases in 214 plate appearances this year. Bryson Stott is a more interesting option in a leadoff role, but he is playable from later in the lineup as well, he would be effective hitting ninth and serving as a wraparound play for $2,900 at second base. Drew Ellis, Brandon Marsh, and Josh Harrison are slotted into the final three spots in the projected lineup, Marsh is easily the most interesting option in the group with his 120 WRC+ over 202 plate appearances.
Play: Zack Wheeler aggressively, Phillies bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Houston Astros (-109/4.10) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+101/3.99)
Welcome aboard DraftKings gamers, remember not to play anyone from that Chicago-New York game, it won’t count on your slate per the DraftKings note. You still have four games from which to draw two pitchers and a handful of hitters, and there are several very good options available, but the slate is somewhat tight and a few less comfortable plays will be necessary. One of those options could come from the matchup between the Astros and Blue Jays. Right-handed starter Jose Berrios will be on the mound for the home team, he is a potentially massive inflection point for the slate on both sites. Berrios has been a roller coaster in his career, with quality ranging from very good second-tier starter to below league-average and targetable for power upside. This season, we have gotten mostly good Berrios, he has a 3.66 ERA and 3.92 xFIP with a 23.1% strikeout rate over 12 starts and 71.1 innings and has allowed just a 2.37% home run rate on 31.7% hard hits. Last season, Berrios made 32 starts and threw 172 innings with a 5.23 ERA and 4.21 xFIP while striking out just 19.8% and allowing a 3.85% home run rate on 43.4% hard hits and 90 mph of average exit velocity with a 9.5% barrel rate. Even in his better form, Berrios yielded a home run in five straight games, starting with a two home run game against the Red Sox on May 1st, but he has been clean for power in two high-end starts against the Twins and Mets in his last two outings. Berrios is pushing the Astros’ lineup to the top of our power index for individual home run upside today, there is a good chance for the Astros to find their home run stroke against the pitcher and Jose Altuve was our home run pick for the day from the leadoff spot, but there is a fairly strong chance that Berrios pitches a sturdy game even if he does give up some power. The challenge in rostering Astros bats against the pitcher is in that one home run, three runs, but six good innings and a handful of strikeouts game in which neither side truly delivers for MLB DFS purposes. Still, with the upside for power it is worth taking out shares of Astros, particularly if they end up lower-owned by comparison to other good teams that are facing lesser opponents on the mound. Berrios is in play as well for similar reasons, particularly where two pitchers are required, the righty has more than enough talent to post a strong score if he can avoid the long ball, at $8,800 on both sites he makes for a good option from the tier below Strider and Valdez. In addition to Altuve, who should be in his familiar leadoff role again tonight for just $4,900/$3,600 at second base, the Astros lineup should offer solid options who may also be less popular because of some ongoing struggles at the plate. Jeremy Pena has not been bad at .250/.306/.422 with a 102 WRC+ in 253 plate appearances, those numbers are almost exactly in line with last year’s output over 558 plate appearances, but he had 22 home runs and 11 steals in that sample and seems behind the pace at just eight and six so far this year. Pena is an affordable shortstop option at the top of the lineup, he costs just $4,600/$3,000 and has a 10.15 in our home run model. Yordan Alvarez has an 18.2% barrel rate and 56.1% hard-hit rate for the season with 17 home runs and a .308 ISO on the board. The terrific outfielder is one of the best hitters in the game, he costs just $5,900/$4,300 and leads the team with a massive 16.65 in our home run model tonight. Alex Bregman got the night off last night, he is slashing .250/.349/.392 with a 111 WRC+ and eight home runs in 269 plate appearances, the power output has not been what one expects from the veteran star at the hot corner, but Bregman’s price includes that at just $4,700/$3,100. At just $5,000/$3,400 in the outfield, Kyle Tucker is another bargain player who is underpriced because of some dips in his overall output. Tucker has hit eight home runs and eight stolen bases in 247 plate appearances and has a 118 WRC+ for the year, he has in no way been bad, but he is certainly behind the pace of his 30 home runs and 25 stolen bases last year. Tucker also hit 30 home runs and added 14 steals in 2021, so the dip is clear but has already been accounted for hi his pricing. Jose Abreu has a 4.1% barrel rate and 39.5% hard-hit rate, he is striking out at a 22.9% clip which is way up from the 16.2% he posted last year while everything else he does at the plate has crumbled. Abreu is slashing just .212/.273/.261 with a .049 ISO and 50 WRC+, he has hit one home run in what is coming up on a year, and he has delivered very little for MLB DFS. Even at his $2,900/$2,400 pricing, Abreu is becoming a difficult click with so many top-end options at first base. If he were a cheap outfielder who did not consume a valuable position he would be more playable, somewhat like Corey Julks or Jake Meyers, for example. The two cheap outfielders can slot in as mix-and-match plays from the seventh and eighth spot, and Martin Maldonado is a very cheap catcher.
The Blue Jays are likely to be a lower-owned option than most of the good teams on this slate, but it is very difficult to attack Framber Valdez with bats. The lefty has made 12 mostly terrific starts this season, throwing 79 innings with a 2.16 ERA and 2.70 xFIP while boosting his strikeout rate from last year’s 23.5% to 26.9% while cutting walks from 8.1% to 5.1% with only minimal impact to his contact profile. Valdez is fantastic at inducing ground balls, checking launch angle, and curbing opposing power output. The lefty has a 1.3-degree average launch angle and 1.92% home run rate this season, last year he had a -3.6-degree launch angle and 1.33% home run rate and the year before was even better with a -5.5-degree launch angle but a couple of additional homers at 2.10%. For $10,400/$11,100, Valdez is a top option on this slate, even against a Blue Jays lineup that is fairly stingy for strikeouts and has significant star power. When rostering Toronto hitters, one can easily focus on the stars at the top of the lineup. All of George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. limit strikeouts to between 15.5% and 16.3% and they have a blend of power and speed that is ideal for MLB DFS purposes. If there is a group in baseball that is likely to ruin Valdez’s night, this trio is at least one of the more highly ranked among the candidates. Springer has nine home runs and 10 stolen bases but just a 99 WRC+, Bichette has 14 homers and a 151 WRC+, and Guerrero sits at nine home runs and a 126 WRC+ for the season. Matt Chapman is projected to hit cleanup against the lefty. Chapman had a lousy May at just .202/.273/.312 with a .110 ISO and 64 WRC+ after one of the hottest starts to the season in the league. The third baseman has struggled for statistics in the last month and change, but his contact profile is still showing a robust 19.9% barrel rate and 60.2% hard-hit rate and his price has dipped back to just $4,900/$3,200. Whit Merrifield is slashing .296/.350/.389 with a 109 WRC+ and he has stolen 16 bases so far this year. Merrifield has moderate power upside at the plate but is primarily a hit-and-speed option who comes at a fair price with second base and outfield eligibility on both sites, he is a player who could create a handful of cheap MLB DFS points without requiring power or an elevated launch angle against Valdez. Alejandro Kirk and Daulton Varsho add power from opposite sides of the plate at affordable prices. Kirk has three home runs this ear and Varsho has 11 and may be coming to life in terms of his power stroke at the plate, which would be a welcome addition to this lineup and stacks. Santiago Espinal and Kevin Kiermaier are mix-in options at the bottom of the lineup.
Play: Framber Valdez, Astros bats/stacks, Jose Berrios, only minor shares of contrarian Blue Jays, they should be relatively low-owned but the ceiling in attacking Valdez is probably lower.
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (+129/3.95) @ Cleveland Guardians (-140/4.64)
With Aaron Civale on the mound in Cleveland it seems likely that the Red Sox will be a somewhat popular stack tonight, despite just a 3.95-run implied team total. Civale is making just his fourth start of the season, he faced the Mariners twice in the season’s first week then missed about two months with an oblique injury before returning for a fine five-inning start against the Twins last week. Civale pitched a clean four-hit game, walking two and striking out four in the start. The low-impact righty is perhaps better than the general perception, he had a 24.1% strikeout rate with a 3.62 xFIP but a 4.92 ERA in 20 starts and 97 innings last year and pitched to an OK 4.32 xFIP and 3.84 ERA with a 19.9% strikeout rate in 124.1 innings in 2021. On a very short slate, the low-popularity pitcher could have an upside for six clean innings and a handful of strikeouts in this spot. For $7,800/$8,200 the Cleveland righty is on the board for pitching shares on both sites in our book. At the same time, taking shares of Red Sox hitters in small doses is viable, but Vegas is giving gamers a big warning with the low implied team total for Boston in this matchup, if they end up looking popular around the industry an undercut to public ownership would not be a bad move. Alex Verdugo is projected to leadoff as usual, the outfielder is a very good value at his $4,700/$3,200 price, he gets on base at a good pace and has a 122 WRC+ for the year. Masataka Yoshida is a professional hitter with a 144 WRC+ that leads the team by a wide margin in his first season in the Show. Yoshida is slashing .318/.391/.498 with seven home runs and has struck out in just 10.1% of his plate appearances, he is easily worth his salary on either site when rostering Red Sox. Justin Turner is an affordable veteran who is entrenched in the top of the Boston lineup. Turner has seven home runs and a 106 WRC+ and is eligible at first and third on both sites. Rafael Devers has 13 home runs and a .233 ISO but just a 104 WRC+ amid a dip in his average and on-base numbers. Devers is discounted for the perceived struggles, he will probably be popular at $5,200/$3,600, but he is nearly unskippable if one is building stacks of Red Sox. Triston Casas has an 8.58 in our home run model, putting him third on the team behind Devers (13.14) and Yoshida (9.57). The first baseman is very cheap at $2,700/$2,600 because he has not been good this season. Casas is slashing .194/.318/.364 with an 88 WRC+ but there is a glimmer far off down the tunnel with his 12.3% barrel rate and 43% hard-hit rate, as well as his terrific 15.7% walk rate that belies the lowly .318 on-base percentage. Enrique Hernandez, Jarren Duran, Emmanuel Valdez, and Reese McGuire round out the projected lineup. Hernandez slots in at only shortstop on DraftKings but has three-position eligibility on the FanDuel slate, making him more valuable for the salary on that slate. Duran is slashing .274/.333/.433 with three home runs and eight stolen bases after a hot start. Valdez is at just .234/.280/.404 with an 83 WRC+ and McGuire has an 84 WRC+ and .080 ISO with zero home runs in 95 plate appearances. The bottom of the Red Sox lineup supports the idea of Civale pitching deeper into the game and potentially posting a quality value-based score.
Cleveland’s lousy lineup also seems likely to find popularity in a matchup against lefty Matt Dermody, who we have never seen pitch and who, until video evidence tells us otherwise, we will continue to assume is a literal piece of shit, given his past public homophobic rants. He certainly projects like one on the mound. Dermody has 30 games of Major League action under his belt, all out of the bullpen, he is a 32-year-old non-prospect who pitched in Japan’s NPB in 2021 and had a 4.21 xFIP and 20.3% strikeout rate in 79.1 innings in AAA for the Cubs organization last year. Dermody made eight starts in AAA for Boston’s organization this year, posting a 3.95 xFIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate. The left-handed bigot pitcher is not available on the FanDuel slate, but he is in play for those who want him at $4,000 on the DraftKings slate. Against the very low-end Guardians lineup, there is upside at that price for anyone who is capable of throwing a baseball 100 times at reasonably high velocities. Cleveland’s projected lineup is playable against the minor leaguer here as well, they are the preferred side of the equation in this space as well as in Vegas, where they land among the day’s more highly totaled squads at 4.64 implied runs. Steven Kwan was a highly effective leadoff hitter with a .373 on-base percentage and 124 WRC+ while slashing .298/.373/.400 and stealing 19 bases in 2022. This season, the outfielder has dipped badly to just .255/.333/.346 with a 91 WRC+ and 10 stolen bases in 277 plate appearances. Amed Rosario has underperformed at the plate, he has a 68 WRC+ in 231 plate appearances and is slashing .237/.281/.330 with a .093 ISO and only one home run. Rosario has eight stolen bases but was expected to push the 15/25 range at least after an 11/18 season last year in which he also had a 103 WRC+. Jose Ramirez was at exactly a 100 WRC+ coming into action yesterday and happily pushed his way above the waterline to 101 instead of dipping below average for run creation for the season. The struggling star is sitting at just .260/.328/.432 however, and his .172 ISO and six home runs are not nearly the expected output. Ramirez costs $5,000/$3,300 in a good spot for a turnaround tonight. Josh Naylor has carried the team, for whatever that has been worth with this lousy squad, during May. He has eight home runs and a .189 ISO for the season and leads the projected lineup with a 110 WRC+. Naylor was a popular late-round season-long pick who struggled badly to open the year but he has engaged in the season and is a good piece of value with a 10.29 in our home run model. Josh Bell hit 27 home runs in 2021, dropped to 17 in 2022, and sits at just four over his first 227 plate appearances of 2023, it has not been pretty but the switch-hitter is at least cheap for $2,600 at first base on both sites. Gabriel Arias slots in at first base or in the outfield for $2,300 on DraftKings, FanDuel has him as a $2,300 option at any of first base, third base, or shortstop, which adds valuable flexibility to the lineup at a very discounted price. Arias has not done much to earn even that price, of course, he is slashing just .204/.295/.361 with an 84 WRC+ and four home runs in his 122 plate appearances. Andres Gimenez costs $3,500/$2,600 at second base, he is another disappointing player in this lineup at just .240/.304/.351 for the year and has just an 83 WRC+ with a .3% barrel rate and 22.1% hard-hit rate. Gimenez has not hit for any power and has only stolen seven bases this season after hitting 17 home runs and swiping 20 bags in 557 plate appearances last year. Mike Zunino was once one of the most threatening home run-or-bust options in baseball, now he is just the high-strikeout bust. Zunino has just a 6.8% barrel rate and 33.9% hard-hit rate in his 131 plate appearances, with three home runs and a .138 ISO while creating runs 28% worse than average and striking out 43.5% of the time in 2023. Myles Straw is a defense and speed option with a .232 batting average and .309 on-base percentage, he is not a strong option but if one is building 150 Guardians stacks against Dermody for Pride reasons, he should go into 10-15 of them.
Play:
Update Notes:
New York Mets (+165/3.67) @ Atlanta Braves (-180/4.93)
The general consensus around the industry is probably going to be that Braves starter Spencer Strider is the top pitching option on tonight’s slate, which will render the outstanding Braves star the most popular starter despite his elevated $12,000/$11,400 price tag and the presence of other top-end options. Strider is an otherworldly talent, there are his statistics and there is everyone else. The righty has a 40.6% strikeout rate with a 19.8% swinging-strike rate and 35.4% CSW% over 69.2 innings and 12 starts this year, each leads baseball by a very wide margin. He has a 2.97 ERA and 2.83 xFIP with a 9.4% walk rate and 1.00 WHIP and has been difficult to hit home runs against with just a 2.52% home run rate despite a 10.3% barrel rate and 39% hard hits. Strider is the best pitcher in baseball, he should be rostered in this spot and one can push the gas pedal as aggressively as they may be inclined, the Mets are a non-threatening lineup and they will be without star slugger Pete Alonso, who has carried the team this season. Alonso took a pitch off of his wrist last night and is considered day-to-day with a contusion but seems to have avoided worse damage. The Mets are severely limited without their star, they still have scuffling Francisco Lindor and a group of capable Major League veterans, but this seems like a less-than-likely spot for that squad to come through. For MLB DFS purposes, a few shares of Mets stacks are probably warranted, Strider is amazing on the mound but no pitcher is invulnerable and most of the public will be far from playing Mets hitters. Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil are correlated scoring options projected to hit first and second, with Lindor following them in the third spot and Starling Marte elevating into the cleanup role despite his season-long struggles at the plate. Nimmo has a 125 WRC+ and a .374 on-base percentage, he is a terrific leadoff man and McNeil can put bat on ball with low-impact quality against anyone, if they got on base it will fall to Lindor and Marte to generate the upside needed to deliver on a low-owned play, making them critical pieces of a Mets stack. Lindor is a star of seasons past, but he is slashing a mere .216/.290/.419 this year. The power is still there though, which is what we would need from the shortstop tonight. Lindor has 11 home runs and a .203 ISO in his 269 plate appearances, for $4,800/$3,300 that is playable. Marte has three home runs and 17 stolen bases and is miscast as a cleanup hitter even when he is slashing better than his current .245/.307/.325. The Mets would probably do well to flip Marte and Lindor and let the shortstop clean up, or perhaps lefty sluggers Brett Baty or Daniel Vogelbach will land in the cleanup role with Marte hitting fifth or sixth. Regardless of the configuration, if one is rostering Mets, all of those hitters would be options at their price with low expectations for success. Baty is fifth in the projected lineup, he is slashing .231/.307/.366 with four home runs in 150 plate appearances since his call-up. Mark Canha has five home runs and three stolen bases with a 102 WRC+ in 194 plate appearances and Vogelbach is at just two home runs with a 90 WRC+ and .093 ISO in 143. The two veterans will have to do more to cover for Alonso in the slugger’s absence. Mark Vientos has seen inconsistent time since his promotion, the slugging rookie has made just 34 plate appearances, he has one home run and a 33 WRC+ while slashing .188/.206/.281 and would probably be better served by seeing consistent playing time in AAA right now. Francisco Alvarez has been terrific over 131 plate appearances, the rookie catcher has nine home runs and a 119 WRC+ so far this season. The Mets are a very low probability play in this spot, their best player will not be in the lineup and they are facing the best pitcher in baseball, the only angle is low ownership and an attack on a very popular pitcher, it is not a great way to approach the slate.
The Braves are facing Justin Verlander which has them severely limit sitting at a 4.93-run implied team total that is one of the highest on the slate. That odd situation arises from Verlander’s ongoing struggles over six starts and 36 innings in his return to action. The righty has a 4.25 ERA and 4.39 xFIP so far this season and he has struck out just 20.5% of opposing hitters with an 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 23.5% CSW%. Verlander was very good in his comeback after late-career Tommy John Surgery last year, he had a 1.75 ERA and 3.23 xFIP but he has not been the same starter so far with the Mets after missing time early in the year. Looking at Verlander’s game log is a bit of a confidence boost in some ways, he had definite signs of life in his most recent outing, an eight-strikeout six-inning gem in which he allowed a home run but just that one run on five hits against the Blue Jays. He was awful in a start before that, but that game was at Coors Field, so we can forgive the six runs on nine hits and only two strikeouts that are bogging down his line. Prior to that outing, Verlander faced the Guardians and allowed just a solo home run and two other hits while striking out five over eight strong innings. A weak outing against the Rays before that and his clunky first start also hurt his statistical line, but the one remaining outing in his game log was another good start, his second of the year in which he struck out seven Reds while allowing just one run on two hits over seven innings. Verlander has, perhaps, not been as bad as many may be thinking, at just $8,600/$9,400 he is similarly discounted to where we found teammate Max Scherzer against these same Braves last night. Verlander is basically the same play, the price already accounts for any perceived struggles and his surface-level numbers are masking some decent-to-good performances in the small sample this season. Verlander is on the pitching board on both sites for our goals tonight, if he is low-owned by the public it only serves to enhance the play. Of course, we are well aware of the titanic power in the Atlanta lineup and all the danger that Verlander will be facing, the Atlanta lineup should absolutely be played against him on the same slate. Ronald Acuna Jr. leads off the confirmed Atlanta lineup as usual, the superstar outfielder has 12 home runs and 28 stolen bases on the season with a 157 WRC+, he is always worth his high price. Matt Olson will hit second, he has a 7.23 in our home run model to lead the team against Verlander. Olson has hit 17 home runs and has a .276 ISO with a 132 WRC+ over 275 elite plate appearances this year. The first baseman is valuable at $5,800/$4,000. Austin Riley and Travis d’Arnaud slot in next, with Sean Murphy getting the night off. Riley has 10 home runs and a 112 WRC+, he has seen a minor dip in his output for power this season but that has only brought his price down, the excellent third baseman costs just $4,800/$3,100. d’Arnaud is not Murphy at the plate, but he has good mid-range power and plenty of potential and will probably be lower-owned than his teammate would have been in the same spot. The backstop hit 18 home runs in just 426 plate appearances last year. Eddie Rosario has eight home runs and a .212 ISO but sits at just a 92 WRC+ over 192 plate appearances. Ozzie Albies is a dynamite second baseman for just $4,500/$3,000, his price does not match the output of 13 home runs and a .223 ISO with a 106 WRC+ at second base. Marcell Ozuna has 11 home runs on the season, 12 if you count the one he thought he hit to dead center last week that turned into one of the longest singles you will ever see after he stood watching it for five seconds as it traveled to bounce off the top of the wall before he had left home plate. Ozuna has light tower power with a .241 ISO he is cheap for his ceiling. Orlando Arcia is always a sneaky play late in this lineup and Michael Harris II is hopefully coming to life as the season goes on.
Play: Spencer Strider as much as you’d like, Braves bats/stacks, Justin Verlander, maybe minor shares of contrarian Mets but it’s not a good spot.
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (+117/4.31) @ Los Angeles Angels (-126/4.79)
Lefty Reid Detmers has been good so far in 2023, he has a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 4.05 xFIP, though his surface-level 5.15 ERA may mislead some fantasy gamers. Detmers has walked too many at 9.3% and his WHIP is an unsightly 1.54, but his 13.8% swinging-strike rate is excellent and his 29.4% CSW% is good, and he has checked power by limiting barrels despite some hard hits and an elevated average exit velocity that sits at 91.1 mph. Detmers may have been somewhat lucky to check home runs to just 2.2% so far but the matchup against the Cubs should feed into his strikeout upside and he is showing a solid projection for just $6,500/$7,100, making him a top-value play on the mound tonight. Detmers will be facing a Cubs team that has been good for run creation against lefties this year, the Chicago active roster sits at a collective 117 WRC+ that ranks eighth in the league in the split and their .172 ISO against southpaws sits 11th. Of course, their 27% strikeout rate is the highest in baseball, which contributes to the expectation of quality for Detmers. This seems like a good spot to take up shares on both sides, the Cubs have enough talent at the plate to get to a pitcher like this, but Detmers could answer the challenge with a gaudy strikeout total at his cheap prices. The starter seems likely to land as a very popular play, particularly where a second starter is required. Assuming that is the case, there is some additional leverage-based upside in rostering Cubs hitters in this matchup. Chicago’s projected lineup opens with Nico Hoerner who is slashing .283/.337/.386 with a league-average 100 WRC+ over 243 plate appearances. Hoerner has 14 stolen bases and four home runs this year, he hit 10 homers and stole 20 bases in 517 plate appearances last year and costs $5,000/$3,500 as the most expensive Cubs hitter on the FanDuel slate and second-most costly behind Dansby Swanson on DraftKings. The price tags may keep Hoerner fairly low-owned in this spot, which is a good thing when we are drawing shares of Cubs bats. Swanson lands second in the lineup, the shortstop is always underrated, he has a 116 WRC+ with a 13.5% barrel rate and 42.7% hard-hit rate that suggest more power to come beyond the six home runs and .150 ISO he has posted so far. Swanson has multiple seasons of double-digit home run and stolen base totals on his resume, he is a good buy when going to this lineup in all situations. Ian Happ has a 123 WRC+ and an outstanding .395 on-base percentage, he is a good option for correlated scoring and can provide individual upside and run generation on his own. Happ has four home runs and five stolen bases this season, he hit 17 homers and stolen nine bases last year and had a 25 home run season in 535 plate appearances in 2021. Seiya Suzuki has six homers and a 114 WRC+ so far this year, the cleanup hitter has a 48.8% hard-hit rate and is productive for his low prices. Yan Gomes slots in ahead of Trey Mancini with Miguel Amaya and Patrick Wisdom following, and Christopher Morel in the ninth spot, but those hitters could land in any order at the bottom of the lineup. There is value in that group, Wisdom has monumental power with 14 home runs and a .286 ISO and he is rarely popular and always inexpensive. Gomes costs just $3,000/$2,600 and is playable on both sites on a short slate. The catcher has seven home runs and a .185 ISO in 132 plate appearances this year. Mancini has four home runs and an 82 WRC+ but the idea of cheap veteran quality at the plate. Amaya is a second catcher in this configuration he is the low-end option in the bottom of the lineup, where we also find Morel who smoked nine quick home runs in his return to action and sits at that same total two weeks later. Morel is a good player who makes for a quality wraparound option, he costs just $4,600/$3,000 tonight.
The Angels’ side of this matchup should be another popular source for bats and stacks. Los Angeles is facing limited lefty Drew Smyly who has a 3.56 ERA and 4.49 xFIP with a 21.3% strikeout rate over 12 starts and 65.2 innings this year. Smyly costs $7,000/$7,500 across sites, he has just enough upside at the price to keep him in play, particularly as a probably unpopular play at SP2 on DraftKings. The lefty has not been bad this season, he is essentially a league-average pitcher over time, but the ceiling is limited to a handful of strikeouts and six clean innings with the potential for win and quality start bonuses. Even against the free-swinging Angels, it seems unlikely that Smyly will post dominant strikeout totals. Taylor Ward leads off the projected lineup for Los Angeles, he has seven home runs and an 87 WRC+ in an up-and-down year, if he plays he is playable in stacks and he is a better option in the leadoff role where he can correlate with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, the two superstars who hit second and third. Ohtani has 16 home runs with a .275 ISO and 145 WRC+, Trout sits at 14 home runs with a .235 ISO and 137 WRC+ while slashing .265/.363/.500 with a 15.5% barrel rate and 50.3% hard-hit rate. Veteran righty third baseman Anthony Rendon is back in the lineup as well, Rendon has not hit for much power this year, but he was having a productive start to the season prior to his injury, slashing .284/.401/.349 with a 118 WRC+ and limiting strikeouts to just 11.7% with a 14.6% walk rate. Rendon is cheap in the heart of the lineup for just $3,300/$2,900. Brandon Drury has 10 home runs and a .234 ISO, he lands fifth ahead of projected sixth hitter Jo Adell, who returned to the Show with Hunter Renfroe heading to the paternity list. Adell has massive power but has never clicked at the MLB level. Still just 24 years old, Adell has been absolutely mashing at the AAA level this year. The slugger has 18 home runs and a .316 ISO in 242 plate appearances and has definitely earned another look at this level. For $2,500 in the outfield on both sites, Adell is a significant power option at a cheap price, he has a 10.42 in our home run model, landing him third on the team. Gio Urshela, Chad Wallach, and Zach Neto are mix-and-match pieces from the end of the lineup.
Play: Angels bats/stacks, Cubs bats/stacks, Reid Detmers value, Drew Smyly value in small doses
Update Notes:
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