The MLB DFS slate gets underway at 1:05 on DraftKings and FanDuel with an interesting set of matchups. There is a four-game sprint at the outset that will be entirely finished by the time the final game of the slate starts at 3:45 ET in San Francisco. The slate includes a few premium pitching options or good arms in good spots and several hard-hitting teams land at or near the top of the power index. The Twins take the top spot in a cakewalk matchup against Justin Garza, while the world-beating Braves are facing Aaron Nola who was rained out last night and looks about the same as yesterday, a very good but struggling ace of a pitcher against a ridiculous home run hitting lineup. The Red Sox are flashing power against Joe Ryan to some degree, but we are more interested in the lousy Nationals against a bad lefty, as crazy as that feels to write. There are good values, strong pitching options, and several spots that look filthy for run creation opportunities, this could be a fun slate.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
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Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/22/23
Atlanta Braves (-110/4.36) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+102/4.23)
(note: in the interest of time on a busy morning, the paragraph below was copied from yesterday’s overview about the same matchup, which was on the FanDuel slate. Nola was rained out and faces the Braves today instead, all prices have been updated for FanDuel changes and today’s DraftKings prices have been added. The Phillies section was updated for the new matchup against a different starter but some content remains.)
The slate gets underway with a good divisional matchup in the NL East that has the hard-hitting Braves taking on Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola, who has been off-form but pitching OK for most of 2023. The right-handed veteran has made 15 starts and thrown a good total of 94.2 innings, but he has a 4.66 ERA and 3.91 xFIP that look out of place alongside last year’s 3.25 and 2.77. Nola posted a 4.63 ERA and 3.37 xFIP over 32 starts in 2021 but struck out 29.8% of opposing hitters that season. After posting a 29.1% strikeout rate alongside last year’s excellent run numbers, Nola has dipped to 24.4% this season and appears to be getting fewer called strikes. The starter’s walk rate has doubled, but it sits at a still-good 6.3% and he has allowed an a-typical amount of power with a 3.94% home run rate on 8.4% barrels, which could play to Atlanta’s talents. Nola typically works deep into games regardless of whether he has allowed a few runs, he should be good for six innings and has a chance to book a win and/or quality start in this contest, but the matchup is brutal and the pitcher has not been himself on the mound. The struggles are baked into Nola’s $10,000/$9,300 price tag on the FanDuel slate, he slots into a tight top-seven on the pitching board but lands seventh on that list by projection. Meanwhile, the Braves are averaging out to be our highest projected team on an also-tight stacks board. Atlanta’s power-hitting potential and run-creation abilities overcome even a talented pitcher like Nola in our model, which does not even have the full picture of the pitcher’s recent returns. The Atlanta lineup opens with superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. who is second in baseball with a .327 average, trailing Luis Arraez by 71 points. Acuna finishes his triple-slash with a .403 on-base percentage and .558 slugging percentage, he is a tremendous talent at the plate. The outfield star has 15 home runs and 31 stolen bases. The stolen bases total also ranks second in baseball, this time Acuna sits six behind the lead with Esteury Ruiz at 37. Acuna is worth his salary on every slate, he is an easy click even with Nola on the mound and a $6,600/$4,600 price. Ozzie Albies has 17 home runs, putting him second on the team and first among MLB second basemen. Albies is a star who is underappreciated by the MLB DFS industry and costs just $5,000/$3,700. Austin Riley has 12 home runs amidst some struggles for regular production during a slightly down first half. Riley is one of our top candidates for a monster second half of the season, he is slashing .259/.323/.430 with a .171 ISO but we would wager those numbers are going to trend way up before October arrives. The star third baseman is priced way down at $5,500/$3,100 tonight. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud is in the lineup in place of regular backstop Sean Murphy, who is day to day with a sore hamstring. While d’Arnaud is certainly a downgrade from one of baseball’s best offensive catchers, he is no slouch with four home runs in 111 plate appearances this year and 18 in 426 last season. Matt Olson is a lefty who mashes at first base, he has 21 home runs and a .276 ISO with a 127 WRC+ but has dropped further down the lineup with his triple-slash sitting at just .233/.347/.509. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna has rocked 13 home runs and has a .231 ISO over 225 plate appearances and has a 7.88 in our home run model. Eddie Rosario is having a very good season for a player who is an afterthought for many. Rosario has 13 home runs and is slashing .271/.311/.520 with a .249 ISO and 118 WRC+. The outfielder has been a productive player in years past, it’s just been a minute since he was this productive. In 2017, 2018, and 2019, Rosario hit 27, 24, and 32 home runs while playing for the Twins, and he hit 13 in the 60-game season in 2020. Rosario was limited over the past two seasons, he made 412 plate appearances in 2021 and hit 14 home runs while stealing 11 bases but he missed much of 2022 with only 270 opportunities at the dish. All of this is to say it is not entirely surprising that a healthy Rosario is producing numbers in such a good lineup, he is still only 31 years old, this is no washed-up formerly good player at $3,700/$3,000 tonight. Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II are an enviable tandem to have at the bottom of a lineup. Arcia is slashing .341/.400/.489 with six home runs and a 143 WRC+ over 200 plate appearances and he fits in at shortstop, third base, or second base for $3,900/$3,100. Harris has been coming on strong and now sits at .249/.305/.399 with a .150 ISO, six home runs, and seven stolen bases; get him while he’s still cheap at $4,200/$2,800.
The Phillies will be facing a different starter today than was scheduled for the postponed game yesterday, righty Bryce Elder will take the mound for the visiting Braves, and he seems to have been enough to swing Vegas in Atlanta’s favor tonight, the Braves are minor favorites on Thursday. Elder lands at a fair $9,700/$9,900 with a mid-range projection across the industry on a short slate, which puts him in play in a full portfolio of lineups. The righty has thrown 83 innings in 14 starts and has a sterling 2.60 ERA with a more honest 3.68 xFIP. He has allowed a 2.40% home run rate on 6.7% barrels by limiting opposing launch angles to just 6.3 degrees on average, which is a critical factor for checking power while still allowing a 44.4% hard-hit rate and 90.3 mph of exit velocity. Elder has a 10.8% swinging-strike rate with a 27% CSW% and has walked just 6.6% of opposing hitters, he is not a dominant strikeout force at just 20.7% but he can find a few along the way to help his cause and has a shot to chase a win and quality start bonus even against the talented Phillies. A major challenge looms in the first spot in the Philadelphia batting order with Kyle Schwarber and all of his left-handed power. Schwarber has 20 home runs and a .263 ISO while creating runs 12% better than average. He strikes out at a 28.3% clip but walks 16.7% of the time and tattoos the ball when he makes contact. Schwarber has a 15.7% barrel rate and 47.7% hard-hit rate this season that are outstanding but are actually down from last season’s massive 20.1% barrels and 54.4% hard hits. The lefty costs $5,600/$3,800 but has just a 6.51 in our home run model (yesterday this sentence read “with a 12.13 to lead the team in our home run model” which reflects the difference between AJ Smith-Shawver, a talented young pitcher, and Elder, who limits home run ability so well). Trea Turner has swiped 12 bases despite getting on at just a .293 clip. The star shortstop has been underperforming dramatically at the plate this season and the turn has yet to arrive, Turner is sitting at just .244/.293/.380 overall with a .135 ISO and is 20% below the league average for run creation, which is 48 points below what he posted last season. Turner hit 21 home runs and stole 27 bases in 2022 and was a 28/32 player in 2021, there is a massive slate-to-slate upside at the very worst and he is priced down for just $6,000/$3,200. Nick Castellanos is having the opposite season, he has a .315/.360/.491 triple-slash with eight home runs and has created runs 29% better than average. Castellanos has always been about this level of player, he just had a bad year last season and everyone wrote him off. For $4,300/$3,300, it seems that the DFS industry is still not fully committed to the return to form, Castellanos is a strong option that has an 11.1% barrel rate and 45.9% hard-hit mark this season. Bryce Harper is slashing .301/.393/.423 but has just a .122 ISO and three home runs over 183 plate appearances since his return. Harper has still created runs 21% better than average and is arguably cheap on FanDuel at $6,200/$3,600, particularly given the first base eligibility he is afforded in addition to outfield positioning on the blue site. JT Realmuto is a top option at catcher, he has eight home runs and 10 stolen bases while creating runs nine percent ahead of the curve. The star backstop is easy to afford at $5,700/$3,200 and he is talented enough that he fits in FanDuel lineups despite his position. Bryson Stott is a strong option at second base as an affordable correlated-scoring play that has individual upside. Stott has hit seven home runs and stolen 11 bags while slashing .295/.333/.427 and has created runs five percent better than average while hitting all over the lineup. Alec Bohm missed some time but had been out to a good start, he has seven home runs and two steals with a 93 WRC+ and comes cheap at $4,100/$2,800 with eligibility at first and third base. Kody Clemens is projected to hit eighth, he has four home runs and a .149 ISO for $2,100 at first base, but there are several better positional options on this team. Brandon Marsh is another lefty slugger late in the lineup, he has five home runs and four stolen bases with a 107 WRC+.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Aaron Nola, Bryce Elder, Phillies bats/stacks in that order
Update Notes:
Arizona Diamondbacks (-150/5.28) @ Washington Nationals (+125/4.46)
A lopsided-looking matchup in Vegas might be a bit better for DFS purposes with the potential for action on both sides of the Diamondbacks vs Nationals matchup that sees a pair of extremely low-end pitchers take the mound for their respective teams. Washington starter Jake Irvin has made eight starts and has a 16.3% strikeout rate in 36 innings over eight starts while pitching to a 5.25 ERA and 5.87 xFIP. Irvin has walked far too many with an ugly 13.3% rate of issuing free passes and his 1.61 WHIP is unsustainably high. Irvin has saved himself by being OK at checking power, he has allowed just a 2.41% home run rate on 35.4% hard hits, a 7.1% barrel rate, and 87.7 mph of exit velocity on average. This is not a good pitcher and the Diamondbacks have a talented and high-functioning lineup to throw at him, which is why they are carrying the day’s highest implied team total at 5.28. That mark is one of only two above 5.0, the Twins land at exactly a five-run total, and the slate’s average is 4.42 implied runs, with the non-5.0 games averaging just 4.24, which puts the Diamondbacks a full run ahead of the curve. Arizona is sure to be a popular stack but there is underappreciated talent later in their lineup that can be exploited and they are an easy team to combine with others, given their positional distribution of talent. Arizona’s projected lineup opens with Geraldo Perdomo who is slashing .291/.396/.458 with a .168 ISO, five home runs, and nine stolen bases and should be a good fit for the leadoff role if he can continue getting on base at an elite level. Perdomo costs just $4,000/$2,800 and he has eligibility at shortstop and second base on DraftKings, he loses second base on the blue site but retains significant value. Ketel Marte is having a strong season at the plate, the second baseman has hit 11 home runs with a .204 ISO while striking out at just a 15.2% clip and creating runs 33% better than average over 303 plate appearances. For just $5,100/$3,900, Marte is a bit of a bargain at his position on the DraftKings slate. Corbin Carroll costs $6,000/$4,200 in the outfield and we remain buyers even at the high prices. Carroll is an emerging star in his first full season, over 295 plate appearances he has a .298/.381/.581 triple-slash with a .283 ISO and 156 WRC+ while blasting 16 home runs and now has 21 stolen bases after swiping two more bags last night. Carroll is a relentless producer of MLB DFS points, he will be popular at his high prices but it is entirely warranted. Christian Walker is a very good hitter for someone with so much power. Walker is not the free-swinging masher archetype of a first baseman, he has 15 home runs this year and hit 36 last year, but he is striking out at just a 16.9% clip in 2023 and was at 19.6% last year. Walker is slashing .271/.336/.513 with a .242 ISO and 124 WRC+, for $4,700/$3,600 he is a bargain at first base. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has 11 home runs with a 119 WRC+, a .222 ISO, and is also difficult to strike out at just 17.9%. The outfielder is a talented player with a strong hit tool and good power, he is inexpensive at $4,100/$3,100. Emmanuel Rivera costs $2,900/$2,600 despite slashing .323/.350/.414 with a 107 WRC+, he is a cheap option at third base that will likely go under-owned in this situation, he will be more popular within Diamondbacks stacks, but not crushingly so. Alek Thomas is a $2,300/$2,400 option in the outfield, he has made 136 plate appearances this year with three home runs and three stolen bases, but just a 72 WRC+ in the small sample. Last season, Thomas hit eight home runs and stole four bases in 411 plate appearances while creating runs 29% worse than average, he is an up-and-down young player with tools but he has not put things together in full at this level, which is also true of the outfielder at the bottom of the projected lineup, Jake McCarthy, who has more speed and similar mid-range power. Catcher Carson Kelly is projected to hit eighth between the two outfielders, he hit seven home runs in 354 plate appearances last year.
The Nationals are a team that we have talked about sparingly this season for good reason, but when they face a lefty we become slightly more interested. When they face a lefty with a 4.66 ERA, a 5.42 xFIP, a 15.1% strikeout rate, and a 4.18% home run rate, they have our complete and total attention. Washington is not a good team, they do not even project particularly well on average with a number of clunker projections dragging the average down through the bottom half of the lineup, but there are several hitters in whom we have interest in this matchup against Tommy Henry. The southpaw has made 10 starts and thrown 56 mediocre-to-bad innings this season, he is a target for bats in most situations though he did dominate the similarly lousy Rockies a few weeks ago. Henry could post a good outing against this team, but we lean toward the Nationals’ friskiness on this side of splits with the pitcher landing at $6,200/$7,300. Henry is not a strong option on the mound, he projects second from the bottom on our pitcher board and does not even provide the best value price of the day. It is important to properly set expectations with this play, when we say that the Nationals have been better against lefties, we are talking about a team with a collective 101 WRC+ that ranks 22nd overall in baseball in the split, they were several points higher and ranked in the mid-teens about a week ago. The team’s active roster has a .143 ISO but just a 19% strikeout rate in the split, against a low-strikeout starter there should at least be a high number of balls in play to push DFS scoring. Leadoff man Lane Thomas is the team’s current best hitter, the outfielder is cheap at $4,400/$3,400 despite slashing .290/.339/.488 with a .198 ISO and 122 WRC+ with 11 home runs and seven stolen bases over 307 plate appearances. In 101 plate appearances against lefties, Thomas has struck out just 18.% of the time and has created runs 82% better than average with a massive .290 ISO and six of his home runs while slashing .355/.406/.645, he is a good play in this lineup most days and a strong one against this weak lefty. Luis Garcia is an infielder with a decent hit tool who is rarely expensive or popular, he is slashing .283/.314/.407 with a 93 WRC+ overall this season. Jeimer Candelario has hit eight home runs in 295 plate appearances this year, none of which have come against a lefty. In the split, Candelario is slashing just .229/.312/.313 with a 71 WRC+ and .084 ISO, which is all not very good. Joey Meneses is slashing .292/.333/.381 with a .089 ISO and a 95 WRC+ overall, he has two home runs but a 43.8% hard-hit rate on the season. Keibert Ruiz hits the ball harder than his results would indicate, he should see more production over time if the profile continues, the young catcher has eight home runs with a .147 ISO on a 9.8% barrel rate and he strikes out at a fantastic 8.1% rate. Ruiz has a 101 WRC+ in 71 opportunities against lefties this season, posting a .156 ISO and one of his home runs in the split while slashing .266/.324/.422. Stone Garrett has three home runs and a .119 ISO this year, he hit four homers in 84 plate appearances last year and arrived with the idea of a bit more power in play. Over 138 plate appearances, he has provided only limited actual results, but his 50% hard-hit rate is compelling and he is a good bat with a .262/.314/.381 triple-slash overall and 115 WRC+ with a .190 ISO against lefties in 72 opportunities. Garrett is a good option with a platoon focus, he costs just $2,600/$2,200 this afternoon. Dominic Smith has two home runs in 289 plate appearances as a cheap low-owned first baseman. Smith has an 82 WRC+ with a .032 ISO against lefties this year, he is not a great option against same-handed pitching. Outfielder Derek Hill is projected to hit eighth, he is not an option on the FanDuel slate but costs $2,400 on DraftKings. CJ Abrams slots in with seven home runs and seven stolen bases slashing .232/.277/.395 with an 80 WRC+ and has been worse against lefties. If Michael Chavis gets the platoon start he is an option for a cheap price with a history of being good against lefties, but he has not done much in the split this season in his 30 chances.
Play: Diamondbacks bats/stacks, Nationals bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (+125/4.22) @ Minnesota Twins (-150/5.00)
The other premium spot for offense today looks like the game in Minnesota, where the home team has a 5.0-run implied team total as strong favorites with ace Joe Ryan on the mound. Ryan is checking the Red Sox to just a 4.22-run total and has a chance to rack up a strong MLB DFS score against the top-heavy Boston squad. Ryan has a 3.30 ERA and 3.74 xFIP over 14 starts and 84.2 innings, he provides depth and should have a good chance to chase a win and a quality start while racking up strikeouts as well. The righty has a 27.1% strikeout rate and has walked a mere 4.5% so far this season while inducing a 13.5% swinging-strike rate and 27.9% CSW%. Ryan has allowed a few more earned runs over his last few starts, his June sits at a 4.86 xFIP with just a 20% strikeout rate after an outstanding start to the season, but we are not concerned and remain confident that the pitcher is more the person we saw the first two months of the season than what we have seen over the past two weeks. Ryan projects at the top of our pitching board for $11,000/$10,500 in the matchup and is a good buy on both sites despite the hefty price tag. The Red Sox projected lineup opens with Alex Verdugo who has five home runs and three stolen bases while creating runs 30% better than average on the back of a sturdy triple-slash. Verdugo opens the lineup with quality at .303/.374/.468 and strikes out just 11.9% of the time this year, the outfielder is an easy click when stacking the top-heavy Boston lineup. Justin Turner has been scorching over the past few weeks and is now up to .284/.364/.465 with 11 home runs while creating runs 26% better than average. The right-handed veteran infielder has had a terrific career, none of the recent results are surprising or out of line with past results, and Turner costs just $3,800 at third base on the DraftKings slate while filling first or third base on FanDuel for $3,400. Rafael Devers fills third base for $5,600/$4,000. The slugger has 17 home runs and a .245 ISO but continues to scuffle somewhat at the plate at just .237/.302/.482 with a 105 WRC+. Apparently, only Luis Arraez and Ronald Acuna Jr. got the message about high batting averages this year. Devers still mashes when he makes contact, he has a 13.5% barrel rate and 53% hard-hit rate this season. Masataka Yoshida is slashing .308/.380/.486 while creating runs 37% better than average in his first season and costs just $5,300/$3,400 in the Red Sox outfield. Adam Duvall and Triston Casas are a strong righty-lefty power pairing late in the lineup, Duvall has five homers in 77 plate appearances and a long track record of success with the long ball, and Casas has been coming on strong after a cold start as a top prospect. Casas has eight home runs and is up to a 100 WRC+ over 249 plate appearances while posting a 14.2% barrel rate and 45.3% hard hits and walking 14.9% of the time. Christian Arroyo, Connor Wong, and Enrique Hernandez round out the projected lineup in low-end fashion, Wong has a good contact profile and is a playable cheap catcher, the others are mix-in positional options for cheap prices.
Minnesota is looking like a very strong source of MLB DFS points on this slate. The Twins are a free-swinging hard-hitting bunch with a lot of flaws that even their manager is aware of and not shy about discussing. The team is carrying a 5.0-run total against opener Justin Garza and rookie bulk reliever Brandon Walter who is making the first MLB appearance of his career. Garza will open with a 21.1% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate over 13 relief innings this season. He has a 4.63 xFIP in the small sample while allowing a 42.1% hard-hit rate and 90.5 mph of exit velocity but has not allowed a home run yet this season. Two years ago, Garza threw 28.2 innings and struck out 22.7% while walking 14.1% with a 4.81 xFIP and 3.91% home run rate on 51.9% hard hits, a 13.6% barrel rate, and 92.1 mph of exit velocity, he did not pitch in the Show in 2022. The Red Sox are very thin on pitching, but they might not be doing this opener thing right, Garza looks a lot more like a target on the mound than someone who will take the top off of the Twins lineup. Walter is a middling 26-year-old lefty organizational prospect who is unranked across the league. He has a 4.61 xFIP and 6.28 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate in 61.2 innings and 12 starts in AAA this season. The Twins lineup has a significant ceiling this afternoon against these pitchers, the Red Sox seem to be in a bit of a punt mode in this one and may put up a weak lineup that supports the Joe Ryan play even further, adding bats behind Ryan reinforces the Twins play with value. The projected lineup opens with Edouard Julien, who has created runs 23% better than average as a rookie. Julien costs $3,300/$2,800 at second base, he strikes out at an aggressive clip, which is on-theme for this squad, but he also draws walks and has a .342 on-base percentage. Alex Kirilloff has hit four home runs in 152 plate appearances with a 125 WRC+, the lefty has eligibility at first base and in the outfield for $3,200 on DraftKings and he fills first base for just $2,600 on the blue site. Carlos Correa has a 12.3% barrel rate and 41.3% hard-hit rate that support his nine home runs and .187 ISO even while his triple-slash remains weak at .215/.297/.402. Byron Buxton is also struggling for quality with the hit tool and on-base percentage, but he has 11 home runs and a .220 ISO with a 12% barrel rate and 41.4% hard hits in 237 plate appearances and is cheap for his skillset at $5,000/$3,000. Max Kepler is even less expensive, the power-hitting lefty outfielder has nine homers in 173 plate appearances while slashing .200/.272/.406 with a .206 ISO and costs just $2,900/$2,400. Royce Lewis and Willi Castro are quality mix-in options with multi-position eligibility for fair prices, both have been very productive in limited samples so far in 2023. Lewis has three home runs and a 124 WRC+ in his 67 plate appearances this year, Castro has five home runs and 13 stolen bases but just a 96 WRC+ in 172 chances. Ryan Jeffers has three home runs in 128 plate appearances as a cheap catcher and Michael A. Taylor has 10 cheap unowned homers in 204 plate appearances and is always a good last man in for a stack of Twins.
Play: Joe Ryan, Twins bats/stacks both enthusiastically, Red Sox bats in small hedge shares
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+156/3.51) @ Cleveland Guardians (-170/4.58)
The Athletics are in an interesting spot with very cheap pricing and some value shining through along with a bit of an upside for home runs against talented rookie hurler Logan Allen, who projects well for us on the other side. On a small slate with good value scores, the Athletics are not off the board, but they remain a flawed play overall. The team provided some DFS value last night but it came primarily on a three-run home run that came on one mistake pitch from a rookie looking for a strikeout in an 0-2 count, this is not a talented collection of hitters overall. Allen has been good in his first 10 starts, Cleveland’s depth of young pitching is ridiculous, last night’s starter was the third top-100 prospect they added to the pitching staff this year, Allen was the first. The lefty has a 22% strikeout rate with a 3.95 ERA and 4.17 xFIP while inducing a 12.1% swinging-strike rate and posting a 27.2% CSW% in 54.2 innings. The southpaw has kept exit velocity to just 88.8 mph with a 2.49% home run rate despite a bit of contact in the form of an 8.9% barrel rate and 39.6% hard-hit rate. Allen is not a flamethrower, he sits in the low-90s but has excellent stuff and a good repertoire of pitches, he has upside for a strong MLB DFS score for just $7,900/$8,400 and is one of our more highly projected pitchers on the slate. The lefty is in a strong matchup, the Athletics rank 27th out of 30 with a 91 WRC+ and they have a .121 ISO with a 23.5% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. When looking to Oakland’s lineup for value, the decisions are somewhat easy. The talent on this team lies in options like Esteury Ruiz who has 39 stolen bases in 326 plate appearances this season. Ruiz is slashing .270/.327/.348 with a 96 WRC+ and puts the ball in play regularly for just $3,300/$3,200. Ramon Laureano costs $2,300/$2,500 in the outfield, he has five home runs and eight stolen bases and has been a productive player in years past with mid-teens output for both home runs and steals. Laureano is an option when stacking Athletics. Ryan Noda hit last night’s big home run that changed the debut for Gavin Williams, the first baseman remains cheap at $2,500/$2,600 despite eight home runs and a .390 on-base percentage with a 138 WRC+ in 267 plate appearances. Noda strikes out far too much but he has walked at a fantastic 18.4% clip along with his power hitting. Brent Rooker got the day off yesterday but the much-maligned (by us) slugger should be back in the lineup today. Rooker has 13 home runs on the season and a 13.94 in our home run model and is closer to being correctly priced at $2,900/$2,800. Jonah Bride costs $2,000/$2,300 at third base on DraftKings and with eligibility at first and second base on FanDuel. Bride has a 76 WRC+ over 55 plate appearances, the 27-year-old career minor leaguer has a good hit tool but not much else at the plate. Catcher Carlos Perez costs $2,200/$2,300 with four home runs and a 102 WRC+ over his 115 plate appearances this season, the right-handed catcher has yet to barrel a ball and has just a 33.3% hard-hit rate this season but he is a cheap option behind the plate when rostering Athletics. Aledmys Diaz, Jace Peterson, and Shea Langeliers round out the lineup, Diaz is a capable veteran utility player, Peterson is a left-handed multi-positional infielder, and Langeliers has underappreciated power behind the plate for cheap prices but is very inconsistent. The Athletics value comes from a bit of contrarian power potential at cheap prices, but they are carrying a 3.51-run implied total for a reason, this remains a bad baseball team.
The Guardians total 4.58 runs in Vegas against lefty JP Sears but do not project well in the matchup in our MLB DFS model. Cleveland’s struggles this season have been well-documented in this space. The Guardians put up a few runs and had a productive night last night, but they have been mostly bad all season and they are facing a far more capable pitcher in Sears this afternoon. The lefty has made 14 starts and thrown 76.1 innings with a 4.24 ERA and 4.86 xFIP while striking out 23.2%. Sears has an 11.8% swinging-strike rate with a 26.6% CSW% but he has allowed some power with a 5.47% home run rate and 13% barrels. The lefty is not good, he could be described as a capable back-end starter for most teams, but he is a top-line option in Oakland. Cleveland’s active roster sits one spot below Oakland’s by WRC+ in the split against lefties at 89 for the season, they have a .131 ISO in the split but just a 16.8% strikeout rate. Sears may not be a great option on the mound, he is not entirely out of play given his flashes of talent and the non-threatening matchup, but the strikeout upside is somewhat capped against this team and there are better options available, he is more in play at $6,800 on DraftKings. Steven Kwan is up to a 96 WRC+ after a semi-productive night last night, he is still slashing just .263/.340/.358 but is cheap and puts the ball in play for $4,100/$3,200 as a correlated scorer with the team’s talent. Amed Rosario has a 43.9% hard-hit rate but just a 2.4% barrel rate and one home run in 289 opportunities, he went 11/18 last season and should be a better player for MLB DFS action than he has been this year. Jose Ramirez has 11 home runs and a 130 WRC+ and has been coming to life in a big way, he is now up to .293/.355/.514 and is affordable at $5,400 on DraftKings, he is correctly priced at $4,100 on FanDuel. Josh Naylor hit another big shot last night and now has nine home runs on the season. Three of the long balls have come against same-handed pitching, but the big lefty slugger is slashing just .217/.254/.383 with a .167 ISO and 73 WRC+ in the split, he is better against righties. Josh Bell has six home runs and an 88 WRC+ in 268 plate appearances and costs just $2,800/$2,400 at first base, the switch-hitter is good against both hands for his career, but slightly better against righties, he has a 105 WRC+ and .187 career ISO against southpaws. Andres Gimenez has five home runs and seven stolen bases after going 17/20 last year, more was expected from the infielder but he has tremendous talent lurking in his bat for just $4,100/$2,900 at second base. Gabriel Arias is slashing .205/.312/.344 with an 87 WRC+, Myles Straw is at .236/.313/.300 with a 75 WRC+, and Cam Gallagher has created runs 112% worse than average in 84 chances.
Play: Logan Allen, Guardians bats for value, Athletics bats for value, and maybe a few shots of JP Sears against a bad team for value.
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (-121/4.47) @ San Francisco Giants (+112/4.12)
The last game of the slate starts up after all four of the others will be concluded, the 3:45 ET time in San Francisco just makes one hope that we get the lineups early; for some of us, plans to see an afternoon movie might ride on that very concept. The Padres are pulling strong projections against lefty Alex Wood who is making his ninth start of the season, with a brief trip to the injured list late in May. Wood came back with a five-inning shutout of the powerful Dodgers while striking out four and allowing just three hits in his return last week, he will have to pitch that well or better to beat the Padres today. The southpaw has a 21.5% strikeout rate and 4.11 ERA with a 4.85 xFIP over 35 innings, he does not pitch particularly deep into games, in 26 starts last year Wood managed just 130.2 innings while pitching to a 5.10 ERA but a 3.41 xFIP with a 23.6% strikeout rate. Wood is priced at $6,600/$7,100 and he projects as a playable piece on our pitching board but lands below all of the more obvious good starters. Wood is an interesting value play in tournaments on both sites, he probably provides more at the SP2 price on DraftKings but he could make noise on the right day at his FanDuel price. The play is in no way safe, of course, the Padres have a loaded top end with stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto leading the way. Tatis costs $6,500/4,300 and still has shortstop eligibility on the FanDuel slate which makes him a highly useful weapon on the blue site. Tatis has 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases while creating runs 49% better than average over 250 plate appearances. Soto costs $5,900/$3,500 and has 13 home runs and a .415 on-base percentage this season while creating runs 50% better than average. The outfielder hits from the left side and is a superstar at the plate with a .264/.415/.488 triple-slash while striking out 20.1% of the time and walking at a 20.4% clip and posting a 59.7% hard-hit rate. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are cheap for their talents, both players have scuffled over the past month or more, but they are stars with long track records and they are now simply underpriced at $5,200/$2,900 and $5,000/$3,000. Machado has eight home runs and a 93 WRC+ this year, he hit 32 with a 152 WRC+ last year. Bogaerts has seven homers and nine steals this year, he had 15 and eight last year while creating runs 34% better than average. Gary Sanchez has six home runs and accidentally blocks the plate from time to time, he is not a good defensive catcher but he has a thunderous stick at the plate when he makes contact, for DFS purposes that is all we need from a $3,900/$2,800 backstop. Jake Cronenworth and Nelson Cruz have not done much at the plate this year, Cronenworth was a valuable contributor for this team last year but sits at just an 89 WRC+ this year, Cruz is on the back end of his career with five home runs in 124 plate appearances and a .181 ISO. Ha-Seong Kim and Trent Grisham round out the projected lineup.
The Giants will be facing lefty Blake Snell, who is one of our top projected starters on the day. Snell is always frustrating, he has an elite 29.2% strikeout rate but an ugly 12.6% walk rate. The lefty has pitched to a 3.48 ERA and 3.82 xFIP over 75 innings and 14 starts this year despite the free passes, he has always pitched through that flaw but the impact tends to be a limitation on innings, which gets problematic when innings score points and book quality starts. Snell has a 1.29 WHIP, a 13.8% swinging-strike rate, but has allowed a 10.4% barrel rate and 3.14% home run rate this season. For $10,100/$10,800 the lefty is a strong option against the free-swinging and surging Giants, but this is a both-sided situation with San Francisco bats in play. Austin Slater is projected to lead off, he has made 57 plate appearances and has a home run with two stolen bases and a 181 WRC+ in the small sample. Slater is a productive player in small doses, he had seven home runs and 12 stolen bases in 325 plate appearances last year. Luis Matos jumps to the second spot in the projected lineup, but this is likely to land differently. Matos is a hit-and-speed prospect with a good bat who has made just 29 plate appearances in the Show and has two stolen bases. Thairo Estrada picks up the regular form of the lineup, he has nine home runs and 17 stolen bases with a 120 WRC+ while slashing .286/.339/.467 this season. JD Davis has a power bat on the right side, he has 10 home runs and a .192 ISO with a 6.08 to lead the team in our home run model for just $4,200/$3,000 at third base. Patrick Bailey, Casey Schmitt, Michael Conforto, David Villar, and Brandon Crawford are a capable collection of hitters, Conforto should climb the batting order from where he is projected, even in a same-handed matchup, he has power on the left side and would be in a better spot if the Giants chase Snell. The remaining players are mix-in options for positional value. Bailey has three home runs and is slashing .302/.330/.512 in 93 plate appearances with a 127 WRC+ as a cheap catcher. Schmitt slots in at third or shortstop, he has two home runs and an 87 WRC+ in 139 opportunities. Villar plays second or third base for just $2,300/$2,000, he hit nine home runs in 181 plate appearances last year and has five in 124 this year.
Play: Blake Snell, Padres bats/stacks, Alex Wood value, fewer shares of Giants bats/stacks
Update Notes:
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