A 10-game MLB DFS main slate with a 1:35 ET start time plus an effort to get in an hour-long live show starting at 11:30 ET has us in high gear snapshot mode for today’s breakdown. The board includes a deep list of pitching selections, but only a few true ace-caliber name brands at the top of the board, as well as several highly targetable arms. There are several obvious spots for upside from offenses and a few that could provide sneaky lower-cost low-popularity plays for the bold.
Join us at 11:45 ET for a LIVE Game-by-Game breakdown:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/4/23
Tampa Bay Rays (-114/4.66) @ Boston Red Sox (105/4.44)
The Red Sox will have righty Tanner Houck on the mound at $6,800/$7,600 against the elite Rays. Houck has a 22.5% strikeout rate and a 3.69 xFIP with an ugly 5.30 ERA on the surface. The righty has not been as good this season at limiting launch angle and home run power, with a 6.5% barrel rate and 3.15% home run rate, but his 4.9% barrels and 1.21% home run rate on 4.5-degree average launch angle from last year are still impactful in his overall projections. Houck has been good at limiting home runs and keeping the ball in the yard over time, but he is not typically a major source of strikeouts. Houck is a low-end SP2 play at best in this matchup. The Rays also lose a bit of their typical shine here however, given Houck’s extended ability to check home runs. Tampa Bay has hit a ton of home runs this season and the team is very good at creating runs, if choosing a side in this matchup taking the Rays bats is certainly the safer bet. Yandy Diaz is slashing .310/.405/.576 with 12 home runs and a 177 WRC+ in the projected leadoff role, Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena are stars at shortstop and in the outfield for prices that are high but perhaps not quite high enough for their talents. Franco has seven home runs and 21 steals, Arozarena has 11 home runs and seven steals. Brandon Lowe drops in with a massive amount of power on the left side, but also a .199 batting average and .294 on-base percentage that hamper his overall upside. Lowe is a major power hitter at a light-hitting position, he should be in play in Rays stacks when using this team. Harold Ramirez, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Taylor Walls, and Christian Bethancourt make up the bottom of the projected lineup. While everyone in that group is arguably playing above their head, they come at very affordable prices across both sites and they carry an average WRC+ mark of 134 for the season. Any combination of mix-and-match pieces from the bottom of the lineup is interesting and viable here, the top choices in that group would be Lowe and Siri for us, but any two are equally good, Bethancourt is always interesting where catchers are necessary.
The Red Sox will be facing premium rookie Taj Bradley, who has an outstanding 34.4% strikeout rate and a microscopic 4.1% walk rate in his first 30 innings and six starts. Bradley has pitched to a 3.60 ERA and 2.79 xFIP and has induced an 11.4% swinging-strike rate with a 27.9% CSW%. The rookie has allowed a bit of ower with a 3.28% home run rate on 39.2% hard hits, but his barrel rate sits at just 5.4% in the small sample and he has a distinct ability to miss bats. Bradley costs $8,800/$10,200, he is a different play across sites against stiff competition in Boston today. The FanDuel price is likely to render the starter somewhat unpopular, which enhances his appeal in large tournaments, he is a good SP2 click at the DraftKings price. Boston’s productive lineup can be rostered against the rookie in small doses, with a focus primarily on the top hitters. Alex Verdugo is an excellent leadoff man for correlated scoring, he has a 120 WRC+ in 243 plate appearances and comes fairly cheap at $5,100/$3,200. Rafael Devers has a 16.05 in our home run model, one of the higher overall marks on a power-packed day. The star third baseman has 13 long balls in 236 plate appearances this season with a 108 WRC+ and .250 ISO. Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida are slotted into the projected lineup third and fourth, they form a solid core of run creation ability with Turner at a 110 WRC+ and Yoshida at 146 with seven home runs. Jarren Duran is slashing .279/.333/.442 with a 107 WRC+ in his 162 plate appearances, but those numbers looked a lot better about two weeks ago. Enrique Hernandez has struggled through most of the season, the veteran has an 82 WRC+ over 208 plate appearances. Triston Casas, Reese McGuire, and Emmanuel Valdez are a weak bottom third.
Play: Taj Bradley, Rays bats/stacks, Red Sox bats/stacks in smaller doses
Update Notes:
Philadelphia Phillies (-150/5.00) @ Washington Nationals (+138/4.10)
The Phillies are carrying one of the higher run totals on the slate in Vegas in a matchup against Nationals’ righty Trevor Williams. Over 11 starts and 55 innings, Williams has a 16.9% strikeout rate and 3.93 ERA with a more honest 5.02 xFIP. The righty has a 7.8% swinging-strike rate and just a 22.8% CSW% and he has allowed a load of premium contact with a 12.9% barrel rate and 4.24% home run rate so far. Williams is targetable with Phillies bats and does not look like an option for shares at $6,300/$7,700. If Kyle Schwarber leads off again he sees a tiny boost to his overall projections for the bump in potential plate appearances. The slugger has a 14.58 in our home run model with 13 in his ledger for the season already. Bryson Stott slots in second in the projected lineup but may lead off, he is a good correlated scoring option with a bit of individual upside. The team’s creamy middle begins with star Bryce Harper who is slashing .300/.398/.460 with a 133 WRC+ and three home runs in 118 plate appearances since his return. Nick Castellanos has seven homers and a 128 WRC+, Trea Turner drops again in the projected lineup but is playable from anywhere regardless of the struggles that have him at a nice discount. JT Realmuto is a star catcher if he is in the lineup for the Sunday afternoon game, Brandon Marsh and Kody Clemens provide lefty pop for cheap prices and low ownership from later in the batting order, and Edmundo Sosa is a playable piece for minor power from time to time when building many stacks of Phillies.
The low-end Nationals are better against left-handed pitching and Phillies starter Ranger Suarez was unfortunately born with a dominant left hand, so we will have to discuss this team today. Suarez has a 21% strikeout rate with an 8.6% walk rate and a 3.55 xFIP under the surface of his awful 7.13 ERA in four starts and 17.2 innings. The southpaw’s best effort came in his last outing, a 6.2-inning four-strikeout start against the Mets in which he allowed two runs on five hits including a home run. The right-handed hitters are the primary targets in the Nationals lineup, while Suarez is a potentially effective value play at $5,700/$6,700. The low prices, particularly on the DraftKings slate, where Suarez is effectively a hitter, have appeal in the matchup even with the Nationals landing at a 111 collective WRC+ against lefties this year. The team’s weak .136 ISO in the split has appeal, although their 18.4% strikeout rate against southpaws is certainly a concern. The ugly matchup has DFS appeal on both sides, one would certainly want to hedge any Suarez action with a few Nationals stacks at worst, despite their 4.10-run implied total. Lane Thomas is probably the team’s best hitter, he pairs well with catcher Keibert Ruiz if the latter is in the lineup, and any of the hitters on the right side who appear between them would be viable. Thomas has eight home runs and a 112 WRC+ and is better against lefties from the top of the order, Ruiz has seven home runs as a cheap right-handed hard-hitting catcher who is very difficult to strike out. Ruiz plays almost every day, assuming he is in the lineup he is a sneaky catcher option at $3,800 where the position is needed. Luis Garcia, Joey Meneses, and Stone Garrett should all be playable on the right side in this version of a Nationals stack, while Jeimer Candelario has always been lousy against lefties. The bottom of the lineup includes Dominic Smith, Alex Call, and Ildemaro Vargas who are mix-and-match options at best.
Play: Phillies bats/stacks, minor Ranger Suarez value shares, Nationals bats/stacks in smaller doses
Update Notes:
Toronto Blue Jays (+114/4.10) @ New York Mets (-123/4.49)
Mets starter Kodai Senga has an excellent 29.8% strikeout rate and an awful 13.2% walk rate over 10 starts and 55 innings in what has been a roller coaster first MLB season for the NPB veteran. Senga was outstanding in his last outing, throwing seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts while one-hitting the Phillies and walking zero hitters. If we get that version of Senga again today he is very likely to chase the top of the scoring pool. In the start before that, the righty walked five while striking out six but allowing three earned runs in five innings to the Cubs. The walks remain a concern, but there is tremendous talent and definite strikeout upside in Senga on any given slate, the matchup against the Blue Jays is less than ideal but it should help to keep his ownership in check. Senga costs $9,300/$9,600 and is on the board for pitching options on both sites. The three stars atop the Blue Jays lineup are always in play and they are outstanding at avoiding strikeouts, though they do not walk very much. George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero have a collective 15.6% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in the top three spots. The trio of stars has obvious potential for days, they have 28 combined home runs despite a bit of a blackout from Springer and Guerrero and they all create runs above average, they are very likely to determine the day for Senga, he will have to navigate this group successfully three times. Brandon Belt and Matt Chapman add tremendous veteran power on either side of the plate in the heart of the projected lineup, they are inexpensive for their home run hitting ceilings, Belt has an 8.18 in our home run model and Chapman is above the magic number at 10.43. Whit Merrifield has speed and moderate pop with a good hit tool, Dalton Varsho has power but has scuffled this season, and the bottom two of Kevin Kiermaier and Tyler Heineman are viable mix-in options.
The Mets are facing lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who comes in with a 21.5% strikeout rate, a 4.49 xFIP with a 4.47 ERA, and a 1.40 WHIP on the season. Kikuchi has lacked the stuff that got him to a 27.3% strikeout rate over 100.2 innings last season and he has allowed both too many opportunities and far too much power. The lefty has always been bad for giving up home runs, he had a 5.07% home run rate last year and a 4.05% mark the season before. This year, Kikuchi is at a 6.20% home run rate over his 11 starts and 56.1 innings. He has allowed an 11.2% barrel rate with a 48.2% hard-hit rate and 92 mph of average exit velocity. Somewhere in Queens, Pete Alonso is drooling. The right-handed Mets masher has 20 home runs and a .299 ISO with a 17% barrel rate this season, he hits home runs against pitchers like Kikuchi in his sleep. Alonso is a great buy for power potential in the cleanup spot in the projected lineup. The star first baseman hits behind an effective group including Brandon Nimmo, who has a 128 WRC+, Francisco Alvarez, a dynamite rookie catcher with tons of power and eight home runs in the books already this season, and Francisco Lindor, who is cheap due to some ongoing struggles at the plate but does still have 10 home runs. Mark Vientos and Starling Marte slot into the projected lineup behind Alonso, both are viable MLB DFS options, Vientos is a major prospect and Marte has come to life with his hit tool somewhat and has good speed and a moderate amount of power. Jeff McNeil, Tommy Pham, and Mark Canha are playable mix-and-match parts from late in the projected lineup.
Play: Mets bats/stacks, Kodai Senga, Blue Jays bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+101/4.99) @ Cincinnati Reds (-108/5.11)
The game in Cincinnati’s band box is carrying high run totals on both sides once again this afternoon. The matchup between Reds starter Ben Lively and Brewers’ righty Adrian Houser does not seem like an ideal one from which to draw pitching shares. Lively has been surprisingly effective in three starts and 22.2 innings, posting a 27.3% strikeout rate with a 1.99 ERA and a 3.31 xFIP, but it seems like a lot of noise and is a major risk in this pitching environment when his pricing lands at $7,500/$9,000. Lively would be the more interesting of the two pitchers, Houser has a 15.5% strikeout rate in five starts and 24.1 innings, pitching to a 4.07 ERA and 4.13 xFIP. The veteran had similar numbers through each of the past two seasons, he may pitch clean innings, but the ceiling is very low. Which should lead to hitters on both sides of this coin.
The Brewers’ projected lineup includes Christian Yelich who is affordable for his talent at $4,800/$3,400. Yelich has a 108 WRC+ with seven home runs and 13 stolen bases in 232 chances this year and he still hits the ball very very hard. Owen Miller is slashing .319/.354/.478 with a 126 WRC+ in his 147 plate appearances. Miller makes a good correlated scoring piece with a bit of individual potential. Rowdy Tellez and William Contreras have power from either side of the plate, Tellez obviously has more of it, the slugger is at 12 home runs with a .243 ISO for the season. Brian Anderson is playable despite cooling after a hot start, Abraham Toro is an interesting option with mid-range pop and some speed for $3,300/$2,500 with eligibility at second and third base on both sites, and the bottom portion of the lineup is of mix-in quality with Brice Turang, Victor Caratini, and Joey Wiemer projected to occupy those spots. The Reds lineup is seeing a bit more run-creation potential on the board in Vegas, but both sides of this look good for MLB DFS potential. Kevin Newman should be leading off at a cheap price, he has been somewhat effective at getting on base but needs to do more to get his WRC+ above the waterline. Matt McLain has two home runs and a 142 WRC+ over 83 excellent plate appearances since his call up, he is viable at $4,000/$3,300 at shortstop and has a 5.51 to lead the team in our home run model. Jonathan India has six home runs with 11 stolen bases, Jake Fraley matches those totals from the left side of the plate in fewer plate appearances, they are both playable in the projected third and fourth spots in the lineup. Tyler Stephenson has not done a lot at the plate this season, but Spencer Steer has been one of the better bats on this team. Steer is slashing .292/.364/.498 with a .206 ISO and eight home runs but costs just $4,300/$3,400 with eligibility at first base on DraftKings and third base on FanDuel. Nick Senzel, Will Benson, and Jose Barrero round out the projected Reds lineup, Senzel is the most interesting option in the group.
Play: Reds bats/stacks, Brewers bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+204/3.02) @ Miami Marlins (-226/4.58)
If this were last year we could gain ground in this overview by simply saying play Sandy Alcantara against the Athletics and thank us in the morning. This season, the Cy Young Award winner has not been nearly himself over 11 starts and 69.1 innings. Of course, there is nothing quite like a home start against Oakland to get a pitcher’s engine turned over. Alcantara has just a 20.5% strikeout rate with an 8.5% walk rate this season, shaving about three points off the strikeout total and nearly doubling his walks, which has led to a 4.93 ERA and 4.45 xFIP. The righty has still induced a 12.9% swinging-strike rate with a 26.8% CSW% but the results have not been as outstanding as they were throughout his terrific 2022. Of course, this has Alcantara priced way down at $9,000/$9,700 in a spectacular matchup that has rewarded far less talented starters again and again this season. The Marlins’ righty should be very popular and it is entirely warranted in this spot. The Athletics bats are not overly appealing, playable parts would include Esteury Ruiz, who has 28 stolen bases on the season; Ryan Noda who hits for a bit of power and can get on base while creating runs 43% better than average; and Seth Brown who has three home runs and two steals in his 74 plate appearances but suffered an injury that cost him almost two months. Brent Rooker is projected to play, he has the same 11 home runs he had on May 12th with everything else normalizing to his typically lousy output during an unplayable bad May. Aledmys Diaz slots in ahead of JJ Bleday, an interesting lefty hitter with a bit of power upside. Jonah Bride, Carlos Perez, and Tony Kemp round out the lineup in low-end form. Alcantara is the play, we believe in the turnaround.
The Marlins frisky bats got going last night and they could ride to glory again today in a good spot against mediocre righty Paul Blackburn, who will be making his second start of the season. Blackburn had a 4.28 ERA and 3.89 xFIP with a 19.1% strikeout rate in 111.1 innings and 21 starts last season, he is non-threatening on the mound and can be targeted for a bit of power upside. The righty gave up a 3.21% home run rate on 40.5% hard hits last year and a 4.57% mark on 51.1% hard hits with a 90.5 mph average exit velocity in nine starts the season before. The Marlins are not great but they come at cheap prices and have MLB DFS upside in the right spot. Luis Arraez is an outstanding play for correlated scoring, after another big night he is back up to a .390 batting average with a 156 WRC+ in 222 plate appearances. Arraez and Jorge Soler are a great two-man combination with their given talents, Soler has 17 home runs and a 133 WRC+ with a .288 ISO this season. Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez are playable outfield bats with upside for power and individual run creation from either side of the plate. They both cost $2,900 in the outfield on the blue site with $4,200 and $3,200 price tags on DraftKings. Yuli Gurriel, Jon Berti, Joey Wendle, Garrett Hampson, and Jacob Stallings round out the projected version of the lineup, they are all playable in small shares if building many stacks of Marlins. Gurriel has a good hit tool and can knock in runs despite a lack of overall power, Berti, Wendle, and Hampson can get on base and steal a bag, and Stallings fills a cheap catcher role.
Play: Sandy Alcantara aggressively, Marlins bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Cleveland Guardians (+149/3.34) @ Minnesota Twins (-163/4.25)
Another of the slate’s premium pitching options has the Guardians in check at a 3.34-run implied team total. The low-end Cleveland team has been bad at everything except for striking out this season, they excel at that one thing and are carrying a 19.4% collective strikeout rate against righties this season. Their 29th-ranked 82 WRC+ in the same split with a .118 ISO is far more encouraging, however, and Twins righty Joe Ryan has been mostly excellent this season. Ryan has a 29.1% strikeout rate in 65 innings over his 11 starts. He has pitched to a 2.77 ERA and 3.43 xFIP with just a five percent walk rate while keeping home runs to just 2.30% on a 3.5% barrel rate despite 41.5% hard hits. Ryan is a top option on the mound today despite his $10,600/$11,000 pricing. The thin hope would be that the field gets carried away with the big discount on Alcantara shares and leaves too many Ryan shares on the table, we want a lot of both starters but would like to find leverage on the mound as well. Ryan faces a Guardians lineup that has one player above average for run creation this season. Star Jose Ramirez has been bad for him, with just six home runs and five stolen bases, and he is barely treading water at just a 104 WRC+. Steven Kwan has a 96 and has not been involved nearly as frequently as last season when he created runs 24% better than average while getting on at a .373 clip. Tyler Freeman has made 30 plate appearances and has a 94 WRC+, Josh Naylor has eight home runs and a .184 ISO to lead the team, his 99 WRC+ is uninspiring. Andres Gimenez, Gabriel Arias, Will Brennan, Mike Zunino, and Myles Straw have an average WRC+ of just 82 this season. While any of the hitters can provide a bit of any-given-slate upside, there is just not much here this season. Gimenez and Zunino are the most interesting options in the group, the infielder has a bit of power and speed but has not shown it this season, Zunino has power over time but just three home runs and a .144 ISO in 2023.
The Twins are facing righty Triston McKenzie who is making his season debut after dealing with an injury to start the year. McKenzie was very good in 2022, making 30 starts and pitching to a 3.77 xFIP with a 2.96 ERA and 25.6% strikeout rate. The righty has made rehab starts but was limited in his pitch count in each, though the last time it was partly due to rain. The starter has a good chance to limit the Twins for four or maybe five innings, but expecting a ceiling score is a stretch for a pitcher who is unlikely to go beyond 70-75 pitches. At $8,100/$9,400, McKenzie is probably not a great option today despite his talent and a premium strikeout matchup. The Twins lineup has Jorge Polanco back up top but lost Carlos Correa to lingering pain. Polanco is always playable, he has good power and speed and can provide correlated scoring from this spot in the lineup ahead of options including Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Byron Buxton, assuming the latter plays. Lewis is priced up to $3,600/$3,400 after starting the week at the minimum price, he has two home runs and a 116 WRC+ in his 21 plate appearances. Kirilloff has lefty power with three home runs and a productive hit tool so far this season. Buxton has 10 home runs but has scuffled somewhat, he has created runs 14% better than average and is affordable for his talent. Max Kepler suffered a migraine and came out of Friday night’s game, he is often injured but when he is healthy he has significant power on the left side. Kepler has six home runs and a .190 ISO in 136 plate appearances this year. Ryan Jeffers is a playable catcher with power potential, he has a 49.1% hard-hit rate in his 99 plate appearances this year and hit 14 home runs in 293 chances two years ago. Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, and Michael A. Taylor are good options for low-owned late lineup production when building out many Twins stacks.
Play: Joe Ryan aggressively, Twins bats/stacks in small doses
Update Notes:
Colorado Rockies (+125/4.46) @ Kansas City Royals (-135/5.14)
The Rockies are facing right-handed starter Brady Singer in another game with fairly high totals on either side, though the Rockies’ total is more in the “high for them” camp. Singer has made 11 disappointing starts this season, he has a 7.12 ERA and a 4.71 xFIP with just a 19.5% strikeout rate in a big step down in quality. Last year, the young starter had a 24.2% strikeout rate and 3.30 xFIP with a 3.23 ERA over 153.1 innings and 24 starts. Singer seemed set to make further strides this season but has regressed across the board, which means he costs just $5,400/$6,900 this afternoon against one of baseball’s worst offenses. As an uncomfortable option along the lines of yesterday’s cheap starters in this same matchup, Singer is not entirely off the board. The Rockies’ active roster has a 94 WRC+ and 22.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, between last year’s numbers and the lousy opponent there is just enough meat on the bone for a large field tournament play. The Colorado projected lineup opens with Charlie Blackmon and Jurickson Profar as usual. Blackmon has been fine this season, he has five home runs and a 105 WRC+, Profar has five home runs but a 73 WRC+, he has not been good. Ryan McMahon is a good lefty power bat who has a 13% barrel rate and 48.6% hard-hit rate, he should be in most stacks of Rockies today. Elias Diaz and Randal Grichuk are two capable bats on the right side of the plate. Grichuk has been hitting well and has multiple seasons of 20ish home runs, Diaz has been a highly productive inexpensive unpopular catcher throughout this season. Harold Castro, Brenton Doyle, Nolan Jones, and Elehuris Montero would all be playable in Rockies stacks, depending on who is in the lineup. Doyle, Jones, and Montero are all reasonably good prospects with power upside, Jone hits from the left side, and the other two are righties. Ezequiel Tovar has not had a great season but he has been more productive over the last two weeks and he comes at a cheap price.
The Royals are drawing a 5.14-run implied total as one of the most highly projected teams of the day. Kansas City is facing lefty Kyle Freeland, who has a 4.22 ERA and 4.83 xFIP with a 16.1% strikeout rate in his 12 starts and 64 innings in 2023. Freeland is not much of an option on the mound at $8,900 on the FanDuel slate, the hope would be for a deep start with clean innings while booking both the win and quality start, and maybe finding a few strikeouts, but the path to success seems thin on the single-starter site. At $6,000 on the DraftKings slate, there is probably enough strikeout upside for even Freeland to find a little bit of value, he typically pitches deep into ballgames and his team has at least a shot to help him book a win. The Royals lineup is by far the preferred side of the coin here, however, with the team’s power potential and some quality bats at cheap prices. Nick Pratto hit his third home run of the season last night, he has been productive for us throughout since his call-up 132 plate appearances ago but still costs just $3,200/$2,800 with outfield and first base eligibility. Bobby Witt Jr. has 10 home runs and 18 stolen bases, Vinnie Pasquantino has nine home runs and a .198 ISO with a 115 WRC+, and Sal Perez has 12 home runs and a .233 ISO with a 119 WRC+. The top group in the lineup is an easy straight-line stack at very reasonable prices with multi-position flexibility, but there are quality options later in the lineup as well. MJ Melendez may sit against a southpaw, he has major potential for premium contact against lousy relievers at worst if he does play. Melendez has a 55.9% hard-hit rate and 13.4% barrel rate but just five home runs this year. Maikel Garcia has a 90 WRC+ with no home runs and four stolen bases, Edward Olivares has five home runs and five steals with a 93 WRC+ and is the more interesting of the two cheap options late in the lineup. Drew Waters and Matt Duffy close out the projected batting order, Duffy is somewhat interesting, he has been productive over 78 plate appearances this season and has shown a bit of talent in small doses over time.
Play: Royals bats/stacks, Rockies bats/stacks, low-end Singer value shares, lower-end Freeland value shares, in that order with far more enthusiasm about the bats.
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (+135/4.13) @ Houston Astros (-147/4.98)
Rookie JP France is on the mound at a cheap $7,000/$8,700 price tag against the Angels this afternoon. France has made five starts and thrown 27 innings with a 4.00 ERA and 4.07 xFIP while striking out 22.2% of opposing hitters, he has not been bad in the small sample as a rookie. His concerns arise primarily around a 5.13% home run rate that has come on 37.8% hard hits and a 9.8% barrel rate so far this year, and he is facing a deadly powerful Angels batting order. France’s numbers are somewhat skewed in the small sample by one bad outing, a 3.2-inning mess against the Cubs in which he struck out only two while allowing three home runs and six earned runs. Outside of that start, France has been quite good, though he did cough up four earned runs in his last outing against the Twins, he also struck out eight in six innings. At a cheap price, there is a minor upside, particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings, in what should likely be an unpopular pitcher. The projected Angels lineup has tons of power but also strikes out about a quarter of the time, France has the opportunity to create a surprising amount of MLB DFS points on the mound, if he can give us six innings he has a shot at the win and quality start bonuses as well, with his team favored today. Taking shares of Angels bats in other lineups is also a good idea, the team is one of the leading options in our Power Index today. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout should be the only five words required to sell those two players. They have 28 combined home runs and ridiculous numbers across the board, they are two of baseball’s very best players. Mickey Moniak slots in third on the left side of the plate, he has a stout 12.61 in our home run model and has hit four in his 50 plate appearances while creating runs 79% better than average in the tiny sample. Moniak is a former first-overall pick getting a shot in a part-time role, if he plays he can be in Angels stacks. Brandon Drury has 10 home runs and a .244 ISO this season, he is cheap at $4,100/$3,000 with multi-position eligibility, Drury remains one of the better bargains in MLB DFS when hunting for power potential. Matt Thaiss is a cheap catcher with a touch of pop, Hunter Renfroe has cooled somewhat but has 11 home runs and a .202 ISO for the season and will come roaring back for more power soon enough, and Jared Walsh is another good lefty power hitter hiding late in the projected lineup. Gio Urshela, Zach Neto, and Luis Rengifo are playable parts in the infield, depending on who makes the lineup. We would rank that list in reverse order from how it is written.
Griffin Canning is facing the Astros, which is good news for the Astros. Canning has a 21.7% strikeout rate but has allowed 44% hard hits and 90.7 mph of average exit velocity with a 3.89% home run rate and a 4.27 xFIP with a 4.89 ERA in his eight starts and 42.1 innings. This is a good spot for rostering Houston stacks and it does not seem like an overly playable place to look to Canning (would anyone have really appreciated the 15 crucial seconds it would have taken to come up with some clever Cannery Row reference? We doubt it). The low-end righty is facing a projected Astros lineup that may be missing Jose Altuve once again, as he deals with an oblique injury. Assuming Mauricio Dubon leads off, that is a downgrade to the top of the lineup, but not one that renders the spot unplayable, Dubon has been mostly fine as a fill-in, he has a 97 WRC+ in 184 plate appearances, he is just not Altuve. Jeremy Pena is cheap at $4,800/$3,000 at shortstop, Yordan Alvarez is a pricey but easily worthwhile star, and Alex Bregman costs just $5,200/$3,100 coming off a big night at the plate. Bregman has eight home runs and a 115 WRC+, Alvarez has 15 and a 165 WRC+ with a monster .299 ISO, and lefty Kyle Tucker follows them with power and speed upside of his own. Jose Abreu has been lousy this season but plays every day at cheap prices and probably still remembers his days as a productive hitter in Chicago. Chas McCormick has moderate power and speed and is an affordable outfielder who can provide upside and differentiate a lineup with cost savings. Corey Julks and Martin Maldonado round out the lineup, Julks has an 82 WRC+ with four home runs and six stolen bases, the counting stats are good for cheap prices but he has been inconsistent.
Play: Astros bats/stacks, JP France value, Angels bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Detroit Tigers (+155/3.96) @ Chicago White Sox (-169/5.15)
Chicago righty Michael Kopech has died and been reborn multiple times on the mound, he is sitting at a 26.7% strikeout rate but an 11.8% walk rate with a 4.52 ERA and 4.70 xFIP on the season. He has a very good 11.8% swinging-strike rate and an effective 28.2% CSW% but has allowed a 16.1% barrel rate and 43.9% hard hits with 90.4 mph of average exit velocity and a 5.34% home run rate. In his most recent outing, a 4.1-inning start against the Angels that saw him allow four earned runs with two home runs, Kopech also struck out 10. The frustrating flamethrower had nine strikeouts in a scoreless two-hit seven-inning game against the Guardians prior to that, and he was also very good in blanking the Royals over eight innings while striking out 10 and allowing just one hit in the start before that. With that sort of potential, in a matchup against the lousy Tigers lineup, one has to think that Kopech is in play, even if he could go pop in the first inning. Kopech costs $8,500/$9,800, his FanDuel price is probably too high but hopefully it will keep the public at bay, at his DraftKings price he looks like a worthy investment. The Tigers lineup is very bad and they lost Riley Greene, their best overall hitter, and a good left-handed bat, leaving them thin for lefties and overall quality. Zach McKinstry has a 133 WRC+ with four home runs and 10 stolen bases atop the lineup, the lefty is one of two in the projected Tigers batting order. Javier Baez and Spencer Torkelson have both been lousy this season, they have WRC+ marks of 63 and 89 respectively. Lefty Akil Baddoo slides in between the two scuffling righties in the projected lineup. The cheap Baddoo has three home runs and five stolen bases in his 151 plate appearances and is more interesting than either of the bookend righties. Nick Maton also hits from the left side, he has five home runs but is slashing .166/.291/.310 with a 72 WRC+ overall. Andy Ibanez, Miguel Cabrera, Jake Rogers, and Jake Marisnick round out the projected lineup and add credence to the idea of Kopech shares.
The White Sox look highly playable against gascan Matthew Boyd. The lefty has a 5.96 ERA and 5.13 xFIP so far this season. He has struck out 20.7% while walking 10.3% in his 48.1 innings and 10 outings. Boyd has been OK at limiting premium contact, giving up just a 6.9% barrel rate and 32.4% hard hits with 88.4 mph of average exit velocity so far this year, but his 3.29% home run rate is still targetable enough, and he has been worse for power against in previous seasons. Boyd costs $6,500/$6,800, he has also been a better strikeout pitcher in the past, so a few value-based darts – while not for us – are not entirely out of the question as an SP2 play. The White Sox hitters are the greatly preferred part of this game. Tim Anderson has to get his season rolling, he still has zero home runs and only six stolen bases, but we know the shortstop is an All-Star with excellent upside for counting stats and he is cheap at $4,500/$3,000. Jake Burger, Luis Robert Jr., and Eloy Jimenez are all above the magic number for home run potential in our model today. The trio of right-handed sluggers have massive power, Robert and Burger have combined for 24 home runs this season, and Jimenez adds five in his 132 plate appearances after missing time. Yoan Moncada is a high-end third base option with a good hit tool, mid-range power, and correlated scoring ability along with first baseman Andrew Vaughn, who has a 115 WRC+ over 247 plate appearances. Clint Frazier is one to watch for value, he costs just $2,100/$2,200 in the outfield if he plays today. Romy Gonzalez and Seby Zavala round out the projected White Sox lineup. Chicago is showing power and run creation potential from top to bottom, they have a 5.15-run implied total in Vegas and look like a very good option for stacking.
Play: White Sox bats/stacks, Michael Kopech value, hedge Tigers in small doses if desired
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (+135/3.67) @ Texas Rangers (-147/4.42)
The Mariners draw home starter Nathan Eovaldi who has them capped at a 3.67-run implied team total in Vegas. Eovaldi has been very effective through the first part of the year, pitching to a 2.42 ERA and 3.34 xFIP in 11 starts and a whopping 74.1 innings. The righty is pitching on the Sandy Alcantara program from last year, making deep starts and chasing complete games every time out, while compiling clean innings and strikeouts to boost his MLB DFS totals to high levels. Eovaldi has a 24.6% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate and he has been terrific at limiting barrels to just 4.5% and home runs to 1.05%. The Mariners lineup has a significant amount of strikeout potential for opposing pitchers, while they are dangerous against anyone, Eovaldi has plenty of talent and know-how to get through the free-swinging collection of hitters cleanly multiple times. The righty is a leading candidate for pitching shares and rivals Ryan and Alcantara on the pitching board. When looking at Mariners hitters, one would do well to focus on the top of the lineup with options like Ty France, Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, and Eugenio Suarez, with any of Cal Raleigh or Teoscar Hernandez as playable power bats as well. The group is not overly reliable for on-base skills or sequencing, Seattle needs to hit for power and Eovaldi has been excellent at limiting that so far this season. The lineup closes with Mike Ford and Jose Caballero and opens with JP Crawford ahead of the team’s quality core. Crawford was interesting when he was promoted, given his good on-base marks at the time, but he has not been nearly as effective in the leadoff role in recent weeks.
Three things to know about right-handed rookie Bryce Miller, who is on the mound for Seattle today. He was outstanding over his first handful of starts before getting lit up by the Yankees in his most recent outing, he is facing a deadly-good Rangers lineup today, and he is still in our weekly lineup for the season-long dynasty league, which may not have been the right decision in a two-start week against the Yanks and Rangers. Miller is very good, he has excellent control and command, he has pitched to a 3.00 ERA and 4.06 xFIP with just a 2.2% walk rate and a 23% strikeout rate over 36 innings and six starts, though some of the strikeout upside was extracted from the Athletics lineup. Miller has a chance to pitch cleanly against the Rangers today, he is certainly talented enough to warrant at least a few shares in a normal situation but there is really no discount baked into his $9,900/$9,500 pricing in this matchup. Miller will probably be fairly low-owned, as a tournament dart one could do far worse. The Rangers are a strong play as well, of course. The lineup is leading baseball in runs and they are showing power upside in our home run model with all of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung over the magic number in our home run model. That collection of hitters has 40 combined home runs this season, and they have highly productive Nathaniel Lowe in the middle of the group with a 9.97 in the home run model. Lowe is a major part of the run creation puzzle and he belongs in stacks with that group of teammates, the first baseman provides a good discount at $4,600/$3,000 in the heart of the Rangers’ loaded lineup. Jonah Heim, Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski, and Leody Taveras round out the projected lineup, but this team just got Mitch Garver and Ezequiel Duran back last night, they would be upgrades to any of the final three names on that list, while Heim is an appealing piece that hopefully plays along side Garver and Duran again.
Play: Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers bats/stacks, Bryce Miller
Update Notes:
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