The short seven-game mid-afternoon main slate is loaded with pitching and somewhat thin on key spots for bats. Today’s slate almost certainly mandates taking up positions against high-end starters with whom we would normally not want to tangle, but that is the only path to differentiation on what should be a fairly concentrated hitting pool. The spread of pitching options has several directions to turn at similar pricing and with similar probabilities of success, leading gamers down a path of creating a wealth of lineups of similar size and shape. Getting away from the patterns that will be taken up by the field’s lineup builds is a key to building lineups on a slate of this nature.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 2:00 pm ET for the MLB DFS Lineup Card Show and a full game-by-game breakdown:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 7/1/23
Houston Astros (+125/3.75) @ Texas Rangers (-136/4.34)
The battle of Texas continues with the Astros and Rangers playing what looks to be a close matchup in a pitching duel that has both teams related to relatively low implied totals. The hometown Rangers will have Nathan Eovaldi on the mound, the righty is projected in the top three on our board and looks to have a good chance at leading the day for MLB DFS scoring as he has several times this season. Eovaldi has made 16 starts and is among the league leaders with 105.1 innings pitched. The righty has a 2.82 ERA and 3.47 xFIP in the sample with a 24.8% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate, he has been pitching fairly deep into most games and has worked in the sixth inning or beyond in all but three of his 16 starts this season. Eovaldi hit a few recent bumps with some home runs but he has allowed more than four earned runs only once all season and more than three just twice, the righty has been very good on the mound overall with the only note of concern being a bit of a dip in velocity as the season has progressed. Eovaldi is fairly price at just $9,500/$9,900 in the matchup against the scuffling Astros, this looks like a strong spot to roster the pitcher. Houston’s active roster sits just in the middle of the league with a collective 99 WRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and they have a 21.3% strikeout rate with a .152 ISO, this has not been a great team. Jose Altuve leads off the projected lineup, he is a star at second base with both power and speed and he is underpriced for his talent after missing time. For just $4,900/$3,400, Altuve is a major bargain compared to other similarly talented second basemen on this slate, including the one on the other side of this same game. Marcus Semien costs $6,200/$3,700 by way of comparison and the players are not dissimilar. Alex Bregman still has power at the plate and puts the ball in play with regularity as a cheap veteran part at third base. Kyle Tucker has 11 home runs and 14 stolen bases and is a star outfielder whose price has dipped considerably after some struggles over the past few weeks. Jose Abreu has six home runs and a .237/.287/.340 triple-slash which represents a major improvement over where it was a month ago. Yainer Diaz is a viable catcher who is getting daily action in this lineup after a good month or so at the plate, in 154 plate appearances he is slashing .274/.286.493 with seven home runs but has already shown signs of cooling and regressing to normal output. Corey Julks, Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, and Martin Maldonado are mix-in parts with WRC+ marks running 95, 94, 98, and 58 for the season.
The Rangers elite lineup will be facing premium rookie hurler Hunter Brown, who broke camp with the team and has made 15 starts on the season. Brown has been mostly excellent in his 87 innings, pitching to a 3.62 ERA and 3.13 xFIP with a 27.4% strikeout rate halfway through the season. The righty has run into some premium contact, he has allowed a 43.9% hard-hit rate with 90.2 mph of exit velocity, but he has kept launch angles to just 3.9 degrees on average, making it difficult to hit the ball over the fence. Brown has allowed just a 2.54% home run rate on the season, but the Rangers will have something to say about pressing that higher this afternoon. The young Houston righty projects in the middle of the pitching board on a deep slate, he is in play at $9,300/$9,200 but the price is a challenge in this matchup and with other high-end options available. Texas will answer with a lineup that is packed with talent and current-year production from top to bottom. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are luxury items atop the lineup at $6,200/$3,700 and $6,300/$4,200 filling the two middle infield positions. The hard-hitting pair are always in play, they can be combined in a lineup at high prices or split up and rostered along with first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, who remains cheap at $4,300/$3,100 despite a run creation mark 22% better than average, moderate power, and a good triple-slash; Adolis Garcia, the team’s other star who has 20 home runs and a 130 WRC+ and comes cheaper than the two infielders; and Josh Jung who has mashed his way to 17 home runs and a .219 ISO with a 126 WRC+ in 336 opportunities this season. Any or all of those five hitters make an ideal stack, the matchup against Brown is not great for home run hitting, but that group has excellent hit tool and on-base skills in addition to their power, they can sequence and create runs when they are not hitting long balls. The bottom of the lineup is one of the more playable collections from 6-9 in the league, with catchers Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver offering major power at the plate, Ezequiel Duran providing a blend of power and speed in a big breakout season, and Leody Taveras resetting the table for the top of the lineup with an excellent .342 on-base percentage and 126 WRC+ from the ninth spot.
Play: Nathan Eovaldi, Hunter Brown, Rangers bats/stacks, minor shares of hedge Astros
Update Notes:
Minnesota Twins (+129/3.95) @ Baltimore Orioles (-140/4.64)
The Twins draw righty Kyle Bradish in a matchup that is pushing them up somewhat in DFS point projections, but not necessarily on the board in Vegas at just a 3.95-run implied total. Bradish has been mostly good this season, the righty has a 3.75 ERA and 3.96 xFIP in 14 starts and 72 innings, pitching to a 22.6% strikeout rate and walking 6.7% to this point. Bradish has been somewhat good at limiting opposing power, he has allowed only a 2.36% home run rate despite 43.7% hard hits and 90.6 mph of exit velocity with an 8.7% barrel rate. He has limited launch angles to 9.2 degrees so far which, while not elite, has a limiting impact on opposing power. Bradish is still prone to making loud mistakes and he has allowed run-creation opportunities throughout the season, but overall he has pitched well and is facing a very high strikeout Twins team. On a deep slate with many more obvious pitching spots, Bradish is not off the board at his extremely affordable $5,800/$7,800 price tags. The righty is better than those prices, he has been up and down but when he is on form he will work deep into a game and he has more than enough to find a handful of strikeouts against this lineup. That said, the Twins are also a good option at the plate in a both-sided situation, they are pulling effective home run totals in our model and may not be the most popular team on the slate given the somewhat low run total. Carlos Correa has 11 home runs on the season with a 93 WRC+ while slashing a mere .211/.292/.408 but he makes premium contact regularly and is an underpriced star shortstop at $4,400/$2,900. Correa is our home run pick for the slate today, he belongs in most stacks of Twins hitters. Edouard Julien slots in with a .259/.343/.431 triple-slash and four home runs, he has not done much at the plate in recent weeks and has been carrying the same home run total for some time as his triple-slash has declined. Julien is cheap at $3,100/$2,700 at second base and he should be in stacks if he hits second. Byron Buxton is the team’s star but he has not had a strong year so far in 2023. Buxton once again has missed a fair amount of action and when he has played he has managed just a .208/.303/.450 triple-slash, though he does have a robust .242 ISO and 14 home runs in his 264 opportunities. Buxton’s 12.7% barrel rate and 42% hard-hit rate play well in this matchup but he is also a 31.1% strikeout hitter who could help feed a healthy total for Bradish on the right night. Alex Kiriloff is a lefty with first base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings, he has four home runs and a 121 WRC+ on the season for $2,900/$2,600. Royce Lewis is cheap at third base on DraftKings, he slots in at shortstop or third on FanDuel and is a good buy in the middle of the lineup. Lewis is a highly regarded prospect who is slashing .333/.361/.484 with a 138 WRC+ and four home runs in 97 plate appearances. Max Kepler and Joey Gallo are home run-hitting lefties for good salaries late in the lineup, while Christian Vazquez and Michael A. Taylor are mix-and-match options.
The hometown Orioles will be facing righty Bailey Ober, who has made 12 starts and thrown 69.2 innings with a 2.97 ERA and 4.35 xFIP. Ober is not a star on the mound by any stretch, but he is a quality option for $7,700 on DraftKings, his $9,700 price on the blue site looks out of place given the other options at that salary point. Ober is unlikely to be as popular as many of the other options on FanDuel but he will be a well-worn SP2 play on the DraftKings slate. The righty has a 24.2% strikeout rate with a 12.7% swinging-strike rate on the season, and he has been effective at limiting opposing power with just a 33.7% hard-hit rate and a 2.93% home run rate. Ober is an option on both sites as a very different type of play around the industry, he has the talent to get through this Orioles lineup and he projects well in our pitching model. Baltimore will have Cedric Mullins in the leadoff role as usual, the outfielder returned from a trip to the injured list recently, he has eight home runs and 13 stolen bases in 249 plate appearances and is easily playable in Orioles stacks at $4,800/$3,400. Adley Rutschman stars at catcher and plays almost every day for Baltimore, the young slugger has 11 home runs with a .151 ISO and 124 WRC+ in 345 plate appearances and he is excellent at avoiding strikeouts and drawing walks. Anthony Santander has a lot of power for someone priced at just $4,500/$3,100 in the outfield. The switch-hitting slugger has 14 home runs and a .217 ISO with a 122 WRC+ so far this year and a long track record of success in seasons past. Ryan O’Hearn is playing above his head but the lefty remains a cheap viable bat when he hits cleanup. O’Hearn fills outfield or first base for $3,400 on DraftKings and just first base for $2,600 on FanDuel. He has six home runs and a 136 WRC+ in 119 plate appearances but we would wager that the next 119 are not as good. Austin Hays has been having a very good season at the plate, he has an excellent triple-slash with eight home runs but could stand to hit for more power from the right side. The outfielder costs $3,800/$2,900 and is a good option ahead of star infielder Gunnar Henderson who is up to a 121 WRC+ with 11 home runs, a 12.8% barrel rate, and 50.7% hard hits for the season. Aaron Hicks, Jordan Westburg, and Adam Frazier round out the lineup, Hicks and Frazier are veteran mix-in options while Westburg is an interesting toolsy premium prospect getting a shot.
Play: Twins bats/stacks, Bailey Ober, Kyle Bradish, Orioles bats/stacks in that order
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (-129/4.28) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+119/3.81)
The Pirates have Johan Oviedo on the mound to face the mediocre Brewers lineup, which has Milwaukee at a 4.28-run implied total as favorites with their nominal ace on the mound. Corbin Burnes has struggled through much of the season and has yet to find consistent quality or his previous form on the mound. Burnes has had a few bright spots and rarely gets completely lit up on the mound but he has made too many starts in which he allows a handful of runs and reaches very limited strikeout totals. Oviedo has similar numbers to the Brewers’ ace though no one would consider them in the same class of pitcher when evaluating a slate. Burnes checks in with 94.1 innings in 16 starts and a 4.10 ERA to go with his 4.19 xFIP and very limited 22.6% strikeout rate. Oviedo has made 16 starts and thrown 88.2 innings, he has a 4.06 ERA to go with a 4.48 xFIP and a 20.3% strikeout rate. Oviedo has induced an 11.1% swinging-strike rate while Burnes sits at 11.9% for the season though the Milwaukee righty throws more strikes overall with a 29.3% CSW% to Oviedo’s 27.5%. The matchup for Burnes is better, the Pirates have a few quality bats but remain without star Bryan Reynolds and they offer up a healthy strikeout rate similar to what Burnes’ team does at the plate. The Milwaukee righty costs $8,700/$9,500, he has been significantly discounted to accommodate the lousy form in which we have found him through most of the season and he remains in play. Oviedo checks in at a cheaper $6,000/$8,500 and has all the looks of a very viable DFS play on this slate on both sites.
The Brewers projected lineup opens with Christian Yelich who is cheap at $4,200/$3,400, warts and all. Yelich is not an MVP this season, he is not even a star, but he is a solid B+ in the outfield for a fair price with plenty of track record and current-year consistency. Yelich has never stopped hitting the ball hard, he has a 53.5% hard-hit rate with a 10.1% barrel rate and nine home runs on the season and adds 18 stolen bases to pad DFS point-scoring. The outfielder has created runs 18% better than average and is the catalyst for most of the Brewers’ output. William Contreras has power as a catcher, he has hit eight home runs but has just a .165 ISO despite his 10.2% barrel rate and 45.8% hard hits. Rowdy Tellez has not shown as much reliable power at the plate this year, he slips to a 9.20 in our home run model this afternoon and costs $3,500/$2,700, which is a bargain price for his potential on any given slate. Willy Adames has right-handed power at shortstop but he is highly unreliable with a .199/.289/.368 triple-slash. Jesse Winker has been bad all season and was bad most of last year after a breakout in 2021, he is very cheap in the outfield and on the left side of the plate. Owen Miller, Brice Turang, Blake Perkins, and Joey Wiemer are a good list of mix-and-match options late in the lineup. The Brewers have a fair amount of irregular power and speed, landing on the correct combination of hitters is challenging with this lineup spread, we would prefer the toolsy Wiemer if he were hitting sixth, he has 11 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 274 plate appearances this season. Miller has hit for average and a bit of power with some stolen base upside, while the others have not provided as much quality in smaller samples. On the Pirates side, we are primarily focused on quality veteran Andrew McCutchen and power-hitting Jack Suwinski in Pittsburgh stacks, but there are shares to spread around to premium rookie Henry Davis and suddenly scorching Carlos Santana who won last night’s game in style for the Pirates. Santana had been bad through most of the season but is now up to nine home runs with a 103 WRC+ and remains cheap at $2,700/$3,000 in the heart of the lineup. Josh Palacios is a bolt-on option if he leads off, he has a home run and two steals in his 89 plate appearances but has never done anything at this level. Nick Gonzales, Ji-Hwan Bae, Jared Triolo, and Austin Hedges are mix-in options late in the lineup.
Play: Corbin Burnes, Johan Oviedo, some shares of Brewers and Pirates bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+184/3.54) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-203/5.07)
One of the more lopsided games on the slate sees the Nationals in Philadelphia as big underdogs with Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Phillies. Wheeler has made 16 starts this season, he has a 3.86 ERA and 3.66 xFIP in his 93.1 innings while striking out 26.8% of opposing hitters. The righty has walked 5.6% while inducing a 12.9% swinging-strike rate and posting a 28% CSW% all of which is very much in line with who he has been in the past. Wheeler has allowed just a 1.52% home run rate and has limited barrels to 5.4% with 36.4% hard hits and 86.6 mph of exit velocity on average. The righty costs $9,100/$10,500 and is entirely worth the salary on both sites, he is cheap on the DraftKings slate and should be very popular around the industry against the lowly Nationals lineup. Wheeler allowed five earned runs in a bit of a blip in his most recent start, and 5.1-inning game against the Mets, but he has been mostly pitching into the sixth inning or beyond and is widely regarded as one of the more reliable starters in the game. Wheeler is a strong buy for MLB DFS purposes in this matchup, he is the second-highest projected pitcher on our board today. The Nationals’ are a lousy ballclub that can be frisky from time to time and is good at limiting strikeouts despite struggling in most other aspects of hitting. Wheeler will face a lineup that opens with Lane Thomas, who has been truly good all season. Thomas is slashing .302/.351/.514 with 14 home runs and seven stolen bases as easily the team’s best hitter, he costs $4,700/$3,700 in the outfield. Luis Garcia is a moderate talent in the infield for a cheap price hitting second, Jeimer Candelario has 10 home runs and a .205 ISO with most of his power coming on this side of platoon splits, but he is a middling option at best. Joey Meneses has hit for average but not power this season and has failed to create runs, his WRC+ sits at 89 over 326 plate appearances. Corey Dickerson is cheap on the left side of the plate at $2,300 on both sites, the outfielder has two home runs in 96 plate appearances and is a low-end choice. Keibert Ruiz has pop behind the plate, the everyday backstop has nine home runs in 280 plate appearances and a good expected slugging percentage to aim toward as the season progresses. Dominic Smith, Derek Hill, and CJ Abrams round out the lineup in low-end fashion.
The Phillies are in an interesting spot with a 5.07-run implied team total against MacKenzie Gore who was elite to start the season but has cooled significantly with the arrival of Summer. The lefty has a 3.89 ERA and 3.58 xFIP in 85.2 innings and 16 starts this season, pitching to a 28.5% strikeout rate but walking 9.9% and posting a 1.41 WHIP. Gore has allowed an 11.1% barrel rate and 46.7% hard hits with a 3.56% home run rate on 90.6 mph of exit velocity on average, he has become somewhat targetable on the mound and the Phillies have more than enough talent to take shots at the up-and-down southpaw. It would not stun to see Gore post a successful start, but his run of recent performance has not been great and he is still a growing young pitcher at 24. Gore is not off the board for $7,500/$8,400 if he avoids power and limits walks he has the talent and strikeout stuff to pay that salary off easily, but he should be rostered in more limited doses than many of the options on this deep pitching slate. The Phillies lineup has excellent selections like leadoff man Kyle Schwarber who has massive power with 21 home runs and a .253 ISO over 354 plate appearances this season. Schwarber has a 15.4% barrel rate and 47.3% hard hits with an 8.52 in our home run model today. Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos should be required to switch prices until Turner’s production normalizes. Castellanos has starred for this team all season but still sits at $4,500/$3,600 while Turner has been a significantly slumping superstar shortstop but still lists for $5,700/$3,800. Both players are good options from the second and third spots in the lineup ahead of star Bryce Harper, who costs $6,100/$3,600 with eligibility at first base added to his outfield positioning on the blue site. Harper is in the midst of a bit of a power outage in his quick turnaround comeback from Tommy John Surgery, he has just three home runs and a .103 ISO but has been 10% better than average creating runs so far. It would be fair to argue that Harper is currently a bit over-priced with this level of output, on the DraftKings slate at least. JT Realmuto is a star catcher who is playable on both sites at $5,000/$3,000, he has eight homers and 10 stolen bases and is positionally elite for DFS point-creation. Josh Harrison, Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa, and Cristian Pache are slated to make up the bottom of the lineup, the final four spots on this team are typically better when filled with quality left-handed hitters against a righty.
Play: Zack Wheeler, Phillies bats/stacks, a few MacK Gore darts are not out of the question
Update Notes:
Chicago White Sox (-206/5.08) @ Oakland Athletics (+187/3.52)
The most slanted matchup of the day is the one in Oakland, the hometown Athletics will have lefty Kyle Muller on the mound, he has an 8.04 ERA and 5.26 xFIP with a 14.3% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate in 47 innings this season. Muller has been a productive minor league starter who pitched in the Braves organization and was widely regarded as a top-100 prospect when he was traded last year. He made three ugly starts in the Show last season and 10 this year and has not found his form. In eight starts and 36.2 innings in 2021 he managed at 23.9% strikeout rate with a 4.17 ERA and 4.88 xFIP at the MLB level, but he has never put things together in full on the mound and will be hard-pressed to find form today after pitching poorly in his recent demotion to AAA Las Vegas. Muller is a very low-end option on a deep pitching slate, even at $5,000/$6,400 it is difficult to envision success with the pitcher in his current form. The White Sox bats are among the slate leaders today, they are showing power and run creation upside and have a 5.08-run total on the board in Vegas. Chicago’s lineup includes left-handed leadoff hitter Andrew Benintendi who has clawed his way back to relevance with a 103 WRC+ in 321 plate appearances. Benintendi is getting on base at an acceptable clip with a very sturdy hit tool but does not hit for power, he is a correlated scoring play who needs help from his friends at $3,000/$2,700. Tim Anderson slots in at shortstop for $3,700/$2,500, he has not hit a home run and has stolen just eight bases while slashing .226/.265/.264 in easily the worst stretch of his productive career. Luis Robert Jr. hit his 24th home run last night, he has a massive .300 ISO while creating runs 43% better than average but is priced wildly differently from similar stars at just $4,600/$3,900, the DraftKings pricing algorithm is either not paying attention or takes things like team record into account when determining these player costs, Robert is cheap by about $1,200 on the slate. Eloy Jimenez is also at a major discount at $4,000/$3,300, he has massive power potential when healthy and he has hit 10 home runs in just 219 plate appearances while creating runs 11% better than average. Andrew Vaughn is another productive run creator, he sits at 118 WRC+ with a dozen home runs in 344 plate appearances but is priced at just $3,100/$3,000 at first base. Jake Burger’s power output early in the season was misleading, he is not nearly that hitter but he is also not inept at the plate, he has any-given-slate upside for power. Clint Frazier, Elvis Andrus, and Seby Zavala are a low-end final third, Frazier is the most interesting hitter in the bunch but he has only limited appeal.
The Athletics are facing right-handed strikeout pitcher Dylan Cease, who projects at the top of our pitching board in the matchup. Cease is heavily favored and has the Athletics at just a 3.52-run total in their pitcher’s park. The righty has a 4.04 ERA and 3.90 xFIP with a strikeout rate that has dipped from 30.4% last year to 27.8% this season, he has a good chance to boost it somewhat today. Cease has maintained a healthy 13.3% swinging-strike rate and has a 28.4% CSW% for the season while limiting home runs to just 2.78% despite a fair amount of flyballs and a 46.9% hard-hit rate. The righty needs to avoid the one or two potential power hitters in the Oakland lineup, but overall he is looking like a good buy at $10,300 on FanDuel and an absolute steal who should be crushingly popular for $8,000 on the DraftKings slate. The low-end Oakland lineup opens with Tony Kemp, but we will continue to hope for Esteury Ruiz in the leadoff spot when the lineup is confirmed. Kemp is a low-end veteran who does very little for this team and is not a developing player, Ruiz is a rookie who leads baseball with 41 stolen bases and could be a fun second-half story in a chase for 100 if given plate appearances in the leadoff role, so naturally the least-liked team in the league right now might relegate him to ninth in the batting order. Ryan Noda is a good lefty hitter with power and a nose for getting on base, he walks at an aggressive pace and has a good OPS but strikes out too much overall and should feed upside to Cease. JJ Bleday, Seth Brown, and Brent Rooker have lefty-lefty-righty power at the plate but they strike out at 20.3%, 32.5%, and 29.8% for the season. Jace Peterson, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Wade, and Ruiz round out the projected lineup. Ruiz is interesting if he leads off, less so at the bottom of the batting order. Wade is a flexible multi-position player with tools but he is a quad-A talent overall, while Peterson and Langeliers have power upside but are infrequent contributors.
Play: Dylan Cease aggressively, he should be wildly popular at the far too low DraftKings price, White Sox bats/stacks aggressively
Update Notes:
Miami Marlins (+142/4.07) @ Atlanta Braves (-155/5.04)
Visiting Miami is a fairly strong underdog in their matchup against veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, who has a 3.81 ERA and 3.92 xFIP over 15 starts and 85 innings this season. Morton is a high-quality veteran and a very consistent starter who finds strikeouts and only occasionally runs into trouble, he has a 26.3% strikeout rate but has walked too many this year at 10.3%. He has limited home runs to 2.37% on 37.3% hard hits and an 88.7 mph average exit velocity for the season and still induces a 13% swinging-strike rate with a 31.5% CSW% that is a very strong mark league-wide. Morton is a premier strike-thrower who is facing a fairly low-end but frisky and fun Marlins lineup, he is a good buy for DFS purposes at $8,900/$9,800 and he will probably not be one of the more popular pitchers among the group of premium starters. Morton is facing a Miami lineup that ranks 21st among 30 teams with a 94 WRC+ collectively against righties this season, they have a 21.4% strikeout rate and just a .137 team ISO in the split. Miami’s lineup opens with the best hit tool in the league in the form of Luis Arraez, who is sitting at .390/.442/.481 ahead of Jorge Soler and his thunderous power. Soler has mashed 22 home runs and has a .276 ISO on the season, he and Arraez are a strong duo when rostering stacks of Marlins, they should not be skipped. Bryan De La Cruz has been good this season at .281/.328/.428 with a 107 WRC+ while Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a five-tool star who has missed a chunk of the season but still has nine home runs and 14 stolen bases in just 176 opportunities. Garrett Cooper has 10 home runs and a 94 WRC+ on the season, Joey Wendle slots in at $2,600/$2,300 at shortstop and has a decent hit tool with a touch of speed, though he has not done much with it in 2023. Jean Segura has been bad, Jesus Sanchez has been good and hit his first homer since returning from injury last night, he has upside at $3,100/$2,800 and should hit higher in the lineup, and Nick Fortes hits ninth.
The Braves are pulling a 5.04-run implied total in Vegas because the town probably does not know what else to do with them against standout rookie Eury Perez who has a 1.34 ERA and 3.83 xFIP with a 29.2% strikeout rate in 47 innings and nine starts. Perez has been spectacular on the mound this season, he has a 29.2% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate and has induced a 14% swinging-strike rate against MLB hitters in his rookie season at just 20 years old. Perez costs $8,500/$10,100 in a brutal matchup, he is playable and could find strikeouts and quality against Atlanta, but the Braves have been the most productive team in the game and Perez is still facing questions about the franchise limiting his innings for the season, though that was not a problem in his last time on the mound. Atlanta’s lineup is ridiculous, they hit six more home runs last night to reach a total of 61 for the month of June, a month in which the team went 21-4 with a collective .304 batting average and .944 OPS with 175 runs scored. The Braves are an outrageous bunch at the plate, the lineup is talented and playable for DFS purposes from 1-9 in almost any form that the team runs out. Their eighth hitter is an All-Star who fills three positions for $2,800 on FanDuel, their ninth hitter was last year’s Rookie of the Year in the NL and has been surging in recent weeks, and six of the seven hitters above them have 14 home runs or more this season. That number would be seven if catcher Sean Murphy was not projected to get the day off with Travis d’Arnaud ably filling the spot. d’Arnaud is not Murphy, but he has plenty of playable power at the plate and he hit 18 home runs in 426 opportunities last year. The top of the lineup is the expensive focus on this team, Ronald Acuna Jr. is having a historic first half, he has 20 long balls and 37 stolen bases on the season already and has created runs 54% better than average. Ozzie Albies has 18 home runs and a 111 WRC+ with a .234 ISO as one of the top second basemen in baseball for $6,000/$3,600, he is finally correctly priced after we harped on that point through the season’s first half. Austin Riley and Matt Olson have major righty-lefty thunder, Riley hit his 15th home run last night, Olson hit his 27th and 28th. Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario cannot be ignored late in the lineup, Ozuna has 16 homers this season and Rosario has 14 and they are at 120 and 117 WRC+ for the year. The Braves are a premium option that seemingly ranks at the top of the board on every slate, they are well worth the effort but Perez is most definitely a very good young pitcher.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Charlie Morton, minor shares of Eury Perez
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (+130/3.94) @ New York Mets (-141/4.65)
The final game of the day features the hard-hitting Giants as fairly significant underdogs against scuffling right-handed veteran Justin Verlander, who checks in at just $8,300/$8,800. Verlander has an uncharacteristic 4.11 ERA and 4.30 xFIP with just a 20.6% strikeout rate over 10 starts and 57 innings in 2023. The righty has been limited with just a 9.3% swinging-strike rate and a 23.9% CSW% and he has allowed too much premium contact at 45.1% hard hits and 91.2 mph of exit velocity on average. Verlander is one of the best pitchers of his generation, if not the very best, but he has not been himself in a single start this season and is simply a different pitcher at this point in his career. The price is correct for the current form of Verlander, particularly if one chooses to factor in the potential for a one-day return to form. The righty is cheap for the memory of his talents and the price is playable for the one-in-five strikeout option that he is now, but a fully clean game is not a given at this point. Verlander is an option but he ranks behind several other starters on this slate, if his popularity is low enough at these prices it would enhance the appeal but that seems unlikely to be the case. The Giants lineup is an option, but they similarly rank just as a mix-in value against the starter. LaMonte Wade Jr. is very good at getting on base, he has a .416 on-base percentage and a 145 WRC+ with nine home runs and a 10.2% barrel rate on the season, Wade is a good leadoff option at $4,000/$3,200. Thairo Estrada offers a mid-level blend of power and speed for $5,100/$3,500, he should be priced around these levels but not much higher for what he does at second base. Joc Pederson has eight home runs and monumental left-handed power in any matchup, he is easily affordable at $4,800/$3,300. JD Davis, Patrick Bailey, and Blake Sabol are good options with Davis easily leading the way in the group. The righty has 10 home runs and a 125 WRC+ on the season but his power has come back to Earth in recent weeks after a hot start. Bailey and Sabol are mix-and-match catchers with a bit of power, Bailey has the better average and triple-slash, Sabol has connected for more power and hits lefty. Austin Slater, Luis Matos, and Brandon Crawford round out the projected batting order.
The Mets face veteran Anthony DeSclafani who will almost definitely not be popular in this spot. The righty has a 4.28 ERA and 4.03 xFIP and has pitched to just an 18.4% strikeout rate this season with 8.3% swinging strikes and a 26.2% CSW%. DeSclafani has allowed a bit of premium contact at 44% hard hits with 89.9 mph of exit velocity, but his 2.41% home run rate is respectable and the Mets have not been consistent at the plate for run creation or power this season. DeSclafani is not a premium option but he can be mixed into the pitching pool on a seven-game slate, particularly on the two-starter site, for just $5,500/$7,700. The Mets lineup is playable in this spot as well, they do not leap off the page for projections but there are capable bats at quality prices starting with Brandon Nimmo for just $4,200/$3,500. Nimmo has 11 home runs and a .373 on-base percentage that support his 134 WRC+ as an ideal leadoff hitter. The Mets and fantasy gamers have not gotten as much as anticipated from Starling Marte this season, his 21 stolen bases are fine but he has created runs 18% below average while slashing just .253/.305/.329. Francisco Lindor has also underperformed in his triple-slash at just .225/.306/.443 but he has 16 home runs with a .218 ISO and 107 WRC+ to support the bad output in more traditional statistics. Lindor is discounted for his talent at shortstop, he costs just $4,700/$3,400 and we are simply buying power with his 12.3% barrel rate and 46% hard hits. Pete Alonso has a 14.9% barrel rate with a .290 ISO and 24 home runs this season. Tommy Pham has struck the ball very well and has played himself into a full-time role in New York. Pham has nine home runs while slashing .284/.352/.511 with a .227 ISO and 136 WRC+ and his 15.2% barrel rate and 51.5% hard-hit rate both lead the team. The outfielder costs just $3,200/$2,900 despite the excellent output. Jeff McNeil is a slap-hitting correlated scoring play, Daniel Vogelbach has infrequent pop from the left side, Francisco Alvarez is a premium rookie with prodigious power behind the plate, and Brett Baty rounds things off with another young quality bat for affordable prices.
Play: Justin Verlander, Mets stacks as a mid-level option, minor shares of DeSclafani or Giants hedge stacks
Update Notes:
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