The eight-game main slates get underway at 4:05 ET this afternoon, and with only a five-minute window between the start of the first and last games on the slate, this will not be a day for late-swapping or getting let off the hook for PPD decisions. The sprint slate features a short list of quality pitchers and several extremely appealing spots for power and run creation at the plate. With a few young starters on the mound, one of whom will be making his MLB debut after an unexpectedly early call-up, and a few targetable veterans, there are many different directions to go at the plate. The concentrated public pitching ownership will dictate the availability of only specific constructions and combinations for the public at large, so getting to a few less comfortable starters with visible paths to success to help differentiate lineups and access otherwise unaffordable combinations of hitters is a good approach to lineup building.
Join us at 2:00 ET for a LIVE Game-by-Game breakdown:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/3/23
Seattle Mariners (+133/4.15) @ Texas Rangers (-144/4.95)
A good AL West matchup in Texas sees the Mariners and Rangers square off in what our Power Index is reading as a good opportunity for some home run fireworks if not some hefty run totals. The visiting Mariners are underdogs on the board in Vegas, pulling in a 4.15-run implied team total against veteran southpaw Andrew Heaney. Seattle’s lineup is showing good results in the Power Index against Heaney, who has always had hiccups with allowing home runs, even when he is pitching at the peak of his powers. So far this season, Heaney has a 3.98% home run rate on a nine percent barrel rate with 89.1 mph of average exit velocity, all of which are down somewhat from the 2022 contact profile that yielded a 4.52% home run rate. The most encouraging sign has to be the reduction of hard hits from 47.7% to 33.1% so far this season, but there is probably still a fair amount of noise in that number after only 10 starts and 55 innings. Heaney is also a high-end strikeout pitcher, he had an outstanding 35.5% strikeout rate in 72.2 innings and 14 starts last season and was at 26.9% in 129.2 innings in 23 starts in 2021. So far in 2023, Heaney has struck out 24.3% while pitching to a 3.76 ERA and 4.39 xFIP. The lefty is in play at just $8,800/$9,800, there are plenty of strikeouts available in the Mariners’ projected lineup if he can dodge the loud mistake pitch or two to the wrong hitter, this could be a good option at pitcher today. At the same time, the Mariners warrant at least consideration as a secondary stack and a source of one-offs, given their overall talent levels and some of the power potential if we get Bad Heaney – who appears so frequently that it actually might be an alternate personality Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde situation. JP Crawford has seen his on-base percentage plummet by about 30 points since moving to the leadoff spot, which is less than ideal. The appeal of the shortstop in that role was for correlated scoring with the team’s power core that follows. The lefty infielder needs to get on base to help his team, he has only moderate power with three home runs and will be on the wrong side of splits against this pitcher. Ty France has five home runs with a 111 WRC+ in 244 plate appearances over which basically everything has gotten worse year-over-year. France is inexpensive at $4,000/$2,900 and we believe in the hit tool and some moderate power upside but he needs to get things in gear. Julio Rodriguez has 10 home runs and 11 stolen bases and is carrying at team-leading 13.29 in our home run model this afternoon. Jarred Kelenic has 10 homers so far this year as well, the lefty slugger sits second with a 12.26 in the home run model, putting him just ahead of the 9.91 held by Eugenio Suarez in the fifth spot. The veteran third baseman has six home runs and just a .114 ISO with an 89 WRC+ in a strange first third of his season. We are used to getting no batting average and a ton of strikeouts, but the blackout in the home run and ISO department has been concerning for a player who exclusively provides power at the plate. Suarez is very cheap for his ceiling at $4,300/$2,800. AJ Pollock and Teoscar Hernandez are capable veteran outfielders later in the lineup, Hernandez has significant power, and though he is sitting at just a .164 ISO for the season he does have nine home runs. Pollock has scuffled through 98 plate appearances at .161/.235/.333. Tom Murphy is a playable catcher for a very low price and Jose Caballero rounds out the lineup.
Right-handed rookie Bryan Woo will be making his debut for the Mariners this afternoon. Woo was drafted in the sixth round in just 2021, he ascended to MLB without a stop in AAA, and after only nine starts at AA that all came this season. The righty appears on several “future top-100 prospects” lists and also several “might be better in the bullpen” lists, given his lack of secondary and tertiary options on the mound. Woo has an electric plus-fastball that rides and sits in the high-90s with an upside to 98-99, it was his primary pitch and the reason he was drafted. His offspeed and breaking pitches are works in progress, but he has reportedly made strides with his slider this season. Woo was a highly regarded college pitcher going into the draft and we have already seen Bryce Miller debut to great results after being selected in the same draft, there is potential for the starter to pitch well and he should be good over time, but something about a half-developed starter with just a fastball against the highest-scoring team in baseball is a bit concerning. As Woo is not available on DraftKings or FanDuel, we do not have to concern ourselves with rostering him, but he is pushing the Rangers stack up the board for runs and power potential, Texas looks like a prime hitting option tonight. The Rangers projected lineup opens in its typically excellent form with Marcus Semien, who has eight home runs and is slashing .294/.364/.481 with a 133 WRC+ as one of baseball’s top second basemen. Corey Seager follows from the other side of the Rangers’ rock-solid infield. Seager has five home runs and has created runs 60% better than average in his 112 plate appearances. The lefty has an excellent 18.5% barrel rate and a 56.8% hard-hit rate in his short season so far. Nathaniel Lowe was our home run pick from the Rangers, but each of the top five hitters in the projected lineup is at or above the magic number for power today, Lowe is actually the lowest-rated in the group at 10.11. Adolis Garcia is a star in the outfield with a 14% barrel rate and 52.2% hard-hit rate that have him at 14 home runs and a .243 ISO for the season, and Josh Jung is right on his heels for the team lead in home runs at 12, while carrying a .233 ISO and creating runs 36% better than average over 226 excellent plate appearances. Jung has made major strides at the plate this season, cutting his strikeout rate by 10 points and doubling his walk rate while driving the ball far more regularly. The third baseman has taken his hard-hit rate from 30.5% to 51% year-over-year. Jonah Heim got the night off last night, so he should be in for the day game, the powerhouse catcher has six home runs and a 119 WRC+ while slashing .286/.340/.451 in 191 plate appearances. Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski, and Leody Taveras are viable mix-and-match pieces in the outfield at the bottom of the lineup for reasonable prices. There is moderate power and a touch of speed throughout the group.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks, Andrew Heaney, Mariners bats/stacks in that order
Update Notes: the confirmed Mariners lineup runs Crawford-France-Rodriguez-Hernandez-Kelenic-Suarez-Murphy-Pollock-Caballero and gives a bump to Hernandez for the improved role. The confirmed Rangers lineup gives the already high-ranked team a nice push upward with the return of both Mitch Garver and Ezequiel Duran, and with Jonah Heim and Garver both in the lineup. The top end is as expected with Heim sixth followed by Garver-Duran-Taveras.
St. Louis Cardinals (-134/4.86) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+124/4.23)
Righty Luis Ortiz has made four starts and thrown 20.2 innings with just a 14.6% strikeout rate and an ugly 11.5% walk rate while pitching to a 4.35 ERA and 5.23 WHIP in 2023. The young starter is regarded as a good prospect so there is potential in the long term, but the current form is difficult to recommend against one of baseball’s best lineups for run creation against right-handed pitching, particularly at $7,300/$6,400. The Cardinals lineup, on the other hand, looks like a good spot for producing runs today. St. Louis has a 4.86-run implied total and a loaded lineup. Brendan Donovan should handle the leadoff role once again, with Lars Nootbaar landing on the IL. Donovan is slashing .253/.346/.386 with a 105 WRC+ in 191 plate appearances. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are the bread on the Nolan Gorman sandwich, which could be a delicious lunch this afternoon. Gorman is our team leader in the home run model at 8.49 today, while that does not crack the magic number it is a good mark and Gorman is a star power hitter at second base with 13 home runs in 205 plate appearances. Goldschmidt and Arenado each have 10 home runs of their own with Goldschmidt at a 155 WRC+ over 252 plate appearances and Arenado at 108 in 237 plate appearances, at least half of which were an extended slump to start the season. This is a dynamite group of hitters for MLB DFS purposes and they come at high but affordable prices on both sites. Willson Contreras is slashing .214/.302/.352 with a .138 ISO and 85 WRC+ in a disappointing season at the plate. If he is not providing offensive upside and is not a great option behind the plate, the Cardinals are going to run out of reasons other than financial ones for putting Contreras in the lineup. The backstop has a healthy track record of success and plenty of leash to go, but he needs to get things turned around. Alec Burleson has four home runs in 150 plate appearances but is also 15% below the average for run creation this season. Paul DeJong costs $3,800/$3,300 at shortstop, he has eight home runs and a 125 WRC+ in 124 plate appearances. Jordan Walker was called back up to the big club, the premium prospect was an early fixture in the lineup but has only been OK in getting his career going so far at .269/.313/.385 with a 96 WRC+ and two home runs with two stolen bases in his 83 plate appearances. There is plenty of upside for Walker and he is cheap at $3,200/$2,700 when going to the Cardinals this afternoon. Tommy Edman is a good wraparound play, if he happens to hit leadoff he is good in that role as well.
The Pirates have been a frisky club overall this season, the top of their lineup has several capable veteran hitters with power upside and talent, but things tend to drop off around the middle of the batting order in Pittsburgh. The active roster has a 17th-ranked 109 WRC+ against left-handed pitching this season with a 24th-ranked .145 ISO and a 20.3% strikeout rate that is 10th-best in the split against southpaws. Cardinals starter Jordan Montgomery is a “better in real life” option when it comes to MLB DFS. He can absolutely provide good scores and is rarely overpriced or highly popular, but disappointment should also be expected when inserting Montgomery into a lineup. Overall, the lefty has just a 20.5% strikeout rate that caps his ceiling in most DFS contests. Montgomery has been good otherwise, he has pitched to a 4.48 ERA and 4.07 xFIP with a 2.61% home run rate and 37.1% hard hits with 88.9 mph of average exit velocity allowed. At just $7,800/$8,300, there is definite upside for the Cardinals starter against the Pirates, but rostering a bit of the offense as a hedge is probably a good idea, particularly if they are not popular and Montgomery is. Andrew McCutchen is slotted into the leadoff role in our projected lineup, but the veteran has gotten most Saturdays off this season. McCutchen has eight home runs and seven stolen bases with a 127 WRC+ in his 208 plate appearances in a nice return to form, if he plays he should be in most stacks of Pirates. Bryan Reynolds is the team’s lone true star, he has seven home runs and eight stolen bases with a .209 ISO and 118 WRC+ over 230 plate appearances and is affordable for that level of production in the outfield at $5,400/$3,500. Connor Joe has a 4.94 in our home run model, not a great mark but one that got him selected for our pick from this team. Joe has six home runs with a .229 ISO and a 42.6% hard-hit rate with a 10.2% barrel rate, he costs just $3,400/$2,900 with first base and outfield eligibility around the industry. Carlos Santana has not been good this season, he is slashing .238/.330/.370 with a .133 ISO and 94 WRC+ and has only hit three home runs. The switch-hitter had 19 homers each of the last two seasons, but we may be reaching the end of the line with Santana. Rodolfo Castro has a productive enough bat for a cheap player. Castro has made 152 plate appearances, he has five home runs and a 120 WRC+ with a .163 ISO on 10.6% barrels and a 44.7% hard-hit rate. At just $3,600/$2,600 with second base and shortstop eligibility, he is a viable piece of value when looking at this team. Ke’Bryan Hayes should be better, we say it constantly, his 47.6% hard-hit rate does not jibe well with his .144 ISO and three home runs. Hayes had a productive day at the plate yesterday, he is cheap and moderately playable when rostering Pirates, particularly if one is building numerous stacks of Pittsburgh hitters. Chris Owings, Mark Mathias, and Jason Delay round out the lineup with a collective “meh”.
Play: Cardinals bats/stacks, Jordan Montgomery, Pirates bats/stacks in small/hedge shares
Update Notes: the Cardinals lineup runs as anticipated. The Pirates lineup includes McCutchen-Reynolds-Joe-Suwinski in it’s most playable part, followed by Santana-Castro-Hayes-Marcano-Mathias-Delay
Philadelphia Phillies (-102/4.27) @ Washington Nationals (-106/4.32)
Break up the Nats! Last night certainly did not go to plan for the Phillies or those of us who had a highly-projected Zack Wheeler in a large portion of lineups. The Nationals got to the premium righty early and often last night in an unexpected barrage of runs. Tonight, the team will be facing Matt Strahm, a lefty who pitches in a hybrid role for the Phillies. Strahm made several full starts early in the season but was then pulled back to the bullpen, he is expected to be acting as the opener this afternoon with righty Dylan Covey as the likely bulk reliever. Strahm is priced like a starter at $7,900/$8,600, he would project well if we were expecting full innings, despite the Nationals’ known uptick in quality against left-handed pitching. Strahm has an elite 33.1% strikeout rate in his 39.1 innings with seven starts and he has pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 3.06 xFIP. The southpaw has a 14.1% swinging-strike rate and 31.2% CSW%, both of which would be among league leaders if he had enough innings to qualify. Strahm will probably see two innings, there is a chance he could pitch in the third, but the price-based upside does not seem significant enough, he would need to be lower-cost on both sites to make the play worthwhile. Covey does not seem like a valuable option, he costs $5,200 where one would play him as a cheap SP2, but there is no guarantee that he gets the innings and he has just an 18.8% strikeout rate with a 3.86 xFIP this season. Nationals hitters are a question mark in this one, the team is better against lefties but they are probably only facing a lefty for two innings, and he is a premium strikeout lefty to boot. Lane Thomas has been very good on this side of splits this season and he has eight home runs and a 116 WRC+ overall. Luis Garcia is a capable infielder at an affordable price, he has a .273/.313/.399 triple-slash but is sitting at 92 WRC+. Joey Meneses is one of the team’s better hitters at .305/.346/.394 but his power has been absent this year with just two home runs and a .088 ISO. Meneses does have a 47% hard-hit rate for the season that suggests more power to come, and he hit 13 home runs in just 240 plate appearances last year. Jeimer Candelario ruined Wheeler’s Friday night but he has been awful against lefties for his career. Stone Garrett has a bit of power potential at cheap prices from the right side of the plate, he has a 52.4% hard-hit rate in his 104 plate appearances. Dominic Smith has been lousy for power all season with just a .040 ISO and one home run, he also sits 15% below average for run creation. Keibert Ruiz was featured in this space yesterday, to recap, there is lurking power potential in the young catcher that could come roaring to life at any moment, he has a significantly higher xSLG than his active slugging percentage and is also sporting a 10.2% barrel rate while striking out just eight percent of the time. Alex Call and CJ Abrams round out the projected lineup.
MacKenzie Gore is a talented young lefty who checks in at $9,200/$9,600 in what appears to be a good spot. Gore has had a breakout season as the best story on the Nationals by far. The young southpaw struck out 11 Royals hitters in seven innings in his last start and sits at a 29.8% strikeout rate with a 3.57 ERA and 3.50 xFIP in 11 starts and 58 innings. Gore will be facing a challenging Phillies lineup that has talent from top to bottom and power to spare, this will be a tester start for the lefty, but he has the talent to get through them and he has faced down other high-quality lineups already this season. Gore is an interesting buy on both sites in a both-sided situation. Getting to Phillies bats is advisable in this spot as well, the team has an opportunity in Gore’s 8.9% barrel rate and 42.5% hard-hit rate allowed so far, the lefty has yielded a 3.23% home run rate that is neither bad nor particularly good. Bryson Stott is an effective correlated scoring piece in the leadoff role, his 17.1% strikeout rate is the only challenging spot for a whiff in the Phillies lineup. If Stott is on he can provide stack-based upside to hitters like Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber who should be hitting behind him in that order. Turner has scuffled through most of the season, he doubled and scored a run in last night’s game but has not done much to get involved this season. Turner is slashing just .235/.278/.370 with a .134 ISO and 72 WRC+, which is why we can now buy the star for a massive discount at $5,100/$3,100. Harper has three home runs and a .156 ISO since his return but he has created runs 29% better than average in the 114 plate appearances and has an 11.8% barrel rate and 44.1% hard-hit mark that tell us the home runs are coming. Castellanos had a massive game last night that won slates around the industry. The outfielder is slashing .311/.354/.500 with a .189 ISO and has created runs 30% better than average. Castellanos has hit seven home runs this year on the back of a 9.8% barrel rate and 43.3% hard-hit rate. Schwarber has 13 home runs but is well below the Mendoza line at just .166, we care far more about his elite power potential, he leads the team with a 7.77 in our home run model tonight despite the same-handed matchup. JT Realmuto is an elite catcher if he plays, though he was one of the few dead spots in the Phillies lineup last night. Edmundo Sosa is cheap at $2,500 on both sites as a fill-in third baseman when stacking Phillies. He is not a great use of a premium power position, but there is a minor low-owned upside and he can drive one from time to time. Drew Ellis and Dalton Guthrie round out the lineup.
Play: MacKenzie Gore, Phillies bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Phillies are using the leadoff Schwarber version of their lineup which will run from the slugger to Castellanos-Harper-Turner-Realmuto-Marsh-Josh Harrison-Drew Ellis-Sosa. the Nationals lineup runs as anticipated with the final three landing Abrams-Dickerson-Call.
Colorado Rockies (+135/4.36) @ Kansas City Royals (-146/5.24)
The game in Kansas City has a bit of weather floating around the area but should ultimately be OK. The pitching matchup on the other hand could be a disaster. The Royals will have lefty Daniel Lynch on the mound for $6,800/$7,700 in his second start of the season. Lynch had a 5.13 ERA and 4.30 xFIP with a 20.3% strikeout rate over 131.2 innings in 27 starts last year. The lefty allowed a 3.50% home run rate on 47.7% hard hits and 91.2 mph of average exit velocity which made him a target for power bats and hard-hitting teams. Lynch is looking like that type of pitcher in this matchup, but the Rockies meet neither of those criteria and check in at just a 4.36-run implied total. This could easily be a spot to stay away from on both sides, Lynch does not have much appeal on the mound at his prices and the Rockies bats are not showing much against him. Colorado’s confirmed lineup opens with Charlie Blackmon, who has been good this year but loses significant quality against left-handed pitchers. Jurickson Profar is not a good player, he hits from both sides and does not cost much but he has a 73 WRC+ over 225 plate appearances this year. Ryan McMahon is the team’s best player in this form, he has multi-position eligibility on the blue site for $3,600 and is a $4,800 third baseman on DraftKings. McMahon has nine home runs and a .230 ISO in 230 plate appearances, but also suffers somewhat in same-handed matchups, though not all lefties are created equal. Elias Diaz has been a very good catcher for MLB DFS purposes this year, he is slashing .318/.371/.489 with a .170 ISO and 120 WRC+ in 194 plate appearances and has hit six home runs. Randal Grichuk is a capable veteran with power in the fifth spot in the lineup, Elehuris Montero is a highly regarded prospect who has not done much in 58 plate appearances but will hit sixth, and Brenton Doyle has interesting right-handed power from the seventh spot. Doyle costs $3,600/$2,800 with eligibility in the outfield. He has four home runs with a .183 ISO in 99 plate appearances while carrying a 14% barrel rate. Alan Trejo and Ezequiel Tovar close out the confirmed lineup, Trejo has a 51 WRC+ in 108 chances, Tovar is at 70 in 203 but has been somewhat better the last two weeks.
The Royals lineup is pulling in a 5.24-run implied team total and looking like a strong option for runs and some power potential against lefty Austin Gomber. The veteran starter has thrown 54 low-end innings in 11 starts this year. Gomber has a 14.3% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in the growing sample, he has pitched to a 7.00 ERA and 5.08 xFIP with a 1.56 WHIP and has only induced a 7.6% swinging-strike rate with a 23.7% CSW%. The lefty is highly targetable with bats and the top of Kansas City’s confirmed lineup is showing quality marks for home runs in our model. Nick Pratto lands in the leadoff spot once again, the lefty first-round pick is slashing .296/.402/.426 with a 134 WRC+ over 127 plate appearances. Pratto has a 10.4% barrel rate and 44.8% hard-hit rate but he can be had for just $3,000/$2,900 with eligibility at first base or in the outfield on both sites. Bobby Witt Jr. is in the second spot in the confirmed lineup, he is up to 10 home runs and 17 stolen bases with a .198 ISO but just an 83 WRC+. Witt seemed to get things going from the cleanup spot in recent games, he costs $5,500/$3,800 at shortstop and is worth the investment. Vinnie Pasquantino has plenty of power on the left side, he has nine home runs and a .202 ISO for the season while creating runs 19% better than average. With the same run-creation mark and 12 home runs with a .239 ISO, Sal Perez is an outstanding counterpart on the right side of the plate. The Royals lineup plays very well from 1-5 at least, with the fifth man in being MJ Melendez who has massive power in his 13.6% barrel rate and 55.2% hard-hit rate, even if it has not turned into stats. Melendez has hit just five home runs and has a .153 ISO despite that premium contact, he is inexpensive and typically less popular than his talent would warrant. Maikel Garcia has an 88 WRC+ with zero home runs and four stolen bases in 95 plate appearances, Edward Olivares has five homers and five steals in 158, and Drew Waters has one homer and zero steals in only 19 chances. Matt Duffy rounds out the lineup as an interesting $2,600/$2,300 option at second or third base. Duffy hits from the right side and is slashing .309/.360/.397 with one home run and a 110 WRC+ in his 75 chances this year.
Play: Royals bats/stacks, Rockies bats in small doses
Update Notes: both of these lineups were confirmed in the original draft.
Los Angeles Angels (+157/3.72) @ Houston Astros (-172/4.88)
The Astros are strong favorites against their division rivals tonight, and right-handed starter Cristian Javier is one of the reasons why. Javier has a 2.97 ERA but a 4.24 xFIP on the season, his 26.8% strikeout rate is highly appealing against a free-swinging Angels lineup and he is projecting as our second-highest-rated pitcher for this slate. Javier has not been perfect, the xFIP is more than a run higher than his ERA and he has allowed a bit of premium contact so far in 2023. The righty has given up a 12% barrel rate with 39.2% hard hits and 89.5 mph of average exit velocity, which has amounted to a 3.60% home run rate. He was better at both limiting power and striking out opposing hitters in 148.2 innings last year. In 2022, Javier posted a fantastic 33.2% strikeout rate in 25 starts and allowed just a 33.3% hard-hit rate and 2.91% home runs. At $10,600/$10,800 he is definitely a good option for MLB DFS contests today against a projected Angels lineup that has a collective 24% strikeout rate, but rostering a few hitters against him in hedge stacks in other lineups may be sharp. The Angels lineup has plenty of premium home run power, if they find that elusive premium contact against Javier today the ball could certainly travel. The projected Angels lineup sees a wrinkle with Shohei Ohtani in the leadoff spot followed by Mike Trout with Mickey Moniak hitting third. Regardless of the configuration in which those three hitters land when the lineup is confirmed, they are all in play. Ohtani and Trout are obvious stars and everyone knows why they are so expensive, Ohtani has 15 home runs and Trout has 13, they are two of the best players in baseball. Moniak has been productive at the plate in 50 opportunities since his call-up. The former first-overall pick is slashing .327/.340/.694 with four home runs and two stolen bases while creating runs 79% better than average in the tiny sample. Brandon Drury and Matt Thaiss are projected next, with Hunter Renfroe dropping to sixth, but that order is more likely to be Renfroe-Drury-Thaiss. Renfroe has 10 home runs and a .192 ISO but has stalled somewhat in recent weeks, he will return to form very shortly and is easily a bargain at $3,800/$2,800. Drury has 10 home runs and a .249 ISO while creating runs 15% better than average in 210 opportunities. Thaiss is an affordable catcher who has three home runs and a 124 WRC+ in 116 plate appearances. Jared Walsh brings left-handed power late in the lineup for just $2,100/$2,300 at first base. Walsh has made only 42 plate appearances and has not done much this year, but he hit 15 home runs in 454 tries last year and 29 in 585 the year before. Gio Urshela and Livan Soto close out the projected lineup.
The Angels are facing Patrick Sandoval, a lefty who has been slightly above league average for most of his career. Last season, Sandoval made 27 starts and pitched to a 2.91 ERA and 3.67 xFIP over 148.2 innings. He had a 13.3% swinging-strike rate and 29.2% CSW% while limiting premium contact to just 5.7% barrels, 33.9% hard hits, and 87.3 mph of exit velocity, leading to a 1.25% home run rate. This season, Sandoval has made 10 starts and thrown 55.1 innings with his strikeout rate plummeting to just 15.1%. The southpaw has given up 6.7% barrels and a 34.1% hard-hit rate while keeping exit velocity to 87.5 mph and home runs to 1.67%. His ERA is a respectable 3.42 but his underlying xFIP is an uglier 4.79 and he has been throwing fewer strikes with just a 27.2% CSW%. Sandoval is typically good at limiting home runs and premium contact, he can be deployed against a scuffling Astros team that has plenty of dangerous hitters lurking in the lineup. At $8,000/$7,800, Sandoval is a viable value arm who makes for a better DraftKings SP2 play than he does a top starter on the blue site. The Astros lineup has been confirmed and it does not include Jose Altuve, with Mauricio Dubon slotting into the leadoff role in an immediate downgrade to the stack and minor bump to Sandoval’s potential. Dubon is fine, but he is no Altuve. He has a 96 WRC+ with one home run and three stolen bases as a fill-in over 179 plate appearances. Jeremy Pena hits second and is slashing .252/.309/.435 with eight home runs and six stolen bases while creating runs six percent better than average. Pena is an inexpensive shortstop option this afternoon. Yordan Alvarez went deep again last night and now has 15 home runs on the season with a .306 ISO and 167 WRC+, he is a superstar who is worthy of his $6,200/$4,100 salary in the outfield. Alex Bregman has seven home runs with a 106 WRC+ but just a .138 ISO so far. The third baseman’s premium contact has dipped from 7.3% barrels last year to just 3.6% this season, but he has stayed involved in the offense far more than teammate Jose Abreu. The veteran has a 51 WRC+ and a .052 ISO with one home run in 233 plate appearances this year. Kyle Tucker is also out of the lineup in another major downgrade to this team’s potential for MLB DFS. Instead, we will have Chas McCormick hitting sixth, McCormick has underwhelmed but does have a 107 WRC+ and .200 ISO with four homers and four steeals in his 101 plate appearances. Corey Julks is slashing .267/.285/.404 with an 88 WRC+, Jake Meyers has a 105 WRC+ in 157 plate appearances, and Martin Maldonado has hit three low-owned home runs in 144 plate appearances as a cheap catcher.
Play: Cristian Javier, Patrick Sandoval, minor shares of Angels and Astros bats
Update Notes: the Astros lineup was already confirmed. the Angels lineup runs Ohtani-Trout-Drury-Taylor Ward-Thaiss-Renfroe-Walsh-Rengifo-Soto
Milwaukee Brewers (-102/5.28) @ Cincinnati Reds (-106/5.33)
The Brewers confirmed lineup will be facing limited righty Graham Ashcraft in a game that features healthy run totals on both sides and a severe lack of talent on the mound. Ashcraft has a 5.55 ERA and 4.41 xFIP with an 18.2% strikeout rate over 11 starts and 58.1 innings. The righty has allowed a 2.71% home run rate on 6.5% barrels and a 7.9-degree average launch angle, he has a somewhat respectable ability to keep the ball in the yard given the knack for inducing group balls, but overall there is no appeal at $6,500/$7,600 for the low-strikeout pitcher. The Brewers will have Christian Yelich in the leadoff role, the former MVP has 12 stolen bases with seven home runs on the season and he has created runs eight percent better than average. While Yelich has not been a superstar he is regularly involved, provides counting stats and run creation upside, and still hits everything hard. For $4,400/$3,400, Yelich is a strong option that will probably be popular in the matchup. Owen Miller has been very good over 142 plate appearances this year, he is slashing .331/.366/.496 with four home runs and seven stolen bases while creating runs 35% better than average for just $3,500/$3,000. Miller has eligibility at second and third base on DraftKings and he adds outfield to those as a terrific FanDuel option. Rowdy Tellez is undoubtedly going to be popular in stacks of Brewers hitters tonight, he is the team’s main source of power after all. Tellez has 12 home runs and a .250 ISO with a 115 WRC+ in 192 plate appearances. William Contreras is a viable catcher and costs just $4,100 where the position is necessary. Contreras has six home runs and a 102 WRC+ with a .165 ISO and he can be utilized on FanDuel in this matchup. Brian Anderson, Jon Singleton, Andruw Monsasterio, Joey Wiemer, and Blake Perkins round out the confirmed Brewers lineup with a few surprises and cheap prices. Anderson is a veteran who had a great start and has cooled and now comes cheap on the right side in the heart of the lineup. Singleton is the same Jon Singleton you may remember as a one-time power prospect in the Astros system. Singleton has several seasons of more than 20 home runs in the minor leagues, but at age 31 he is looking much more like Crash Davis than Babe Ruth. The lefty slugger has 14 home runs while striking out at a 36% clip in 420 plate appearances in the Show over multiple seasons, he costs the minimum on DraftKings and could be an interesting sneaky source of power, he is not on the FanDuel slate. Monasterio has made 14 plate appearances, he is a moderately regarded hit-defense-and-speed prospect. Wiemer has six home runs but a 73 WRC+ in 181 plate appearances. Perkins has also made 14 plate appearances and he has done nothing with them, in fact his WRC+ sits at a hilarious -65 at this point. Perkins is another somewhat post-hype player, he is turning 27 later this Summer and is a former second-round pick who flashed mid-range power and speed through the minors with Washington, Kansas City, and the Yankees and is getting his first action in the Show. Perkins costs the minimum on both sites as an outfielder.
The Reds are drawing excellent power marks against limited righty Colin Rea who seems to do better every time we say mean things about him. With that in mind, one of the smartest, most dashing, funniest, and most likeable starters in the league has not produced very much on the mound so far this year with a 4.89 ERA and 4.53 xFIP. Rea has been targetable for power, he has a 4.55% home run rate and a 41.5% hard-hit rate with 90.1 mph of average exit velocity that should play for power in a bandbox of a ballpark. The Reds are not a great lineup, but they are showing potential for a ceiling score both in our model and with a 5.33-run implied total in Vegas. Kevin Newman leads off the confirmed Reds lineup. Newman has just an 11.6% strikeout rate over 146 plate appearances this year and he is slashing .282/.349/.382 with two home runs and three stolen bases. He is an effective enough leadoff man in this spot for $2,400/$2,900 with eligibility at second and third base on DraftKings but shortstop on FanDuel. Matt McLain is our overall home run pick for the day, he has a 12.78 in our home run model to lead Cincinnati today. The high-end rookie has two long balls in his 77 plate appearances and is slashing .329/.390/.486 since his call-up. Jonathan India has six home runs in 253 plate appearances with a .153 ISO and 114 WRC+, his 8.07 in the home run model puts him on the power board, but he lands behind McLain and the two hitters who follow in the lineup. Jake Fraley has a 10.48 and Spencer Steer is at 10.34 in our home run model. Fraley hits from the left side, he has a 6.3% barrel rate and 27.8% hard-hit rate this year but has managed to turn that into five home runs. Steer has blasted eight home runs with a .209 ISO and 124 WRC+ over 231 under-appreciated plate appearances. The righty infielder costs $3,900 at first base on DraftKings and $3,400 at third base on FanDuel. Nick Senzel has been creating runs seven percent below average but he is cheap with a touch of talent, he has four home runs and four stolen bases in 176 plate appearances. Stuart Fairchild had a 9.5% barrel rate and 41.3% hard-hit rate with five home runs in 110 opportunities in 2022 but has fallen apart with just a 4.9% barrel rate and 26.8% hard hits with one home run in 143 chances this season. Will Benson and Curt Casali close out the confirmed Reds lineup.
Play: Reds bats/stacks, Brewers bats/stacks
Update Notes: both of these lineups were confirmed in the original draft.
Toronto Blue Jays (-112/4.38) @ New York Mets (+103/4.22)
Right-handed Mets starter Tylor Megill has been better in small samples in seasons past. In 2022 he threw 47.1 innings in nine starts and had a 25.5% strikeout rate with a 3.35 xFIP under his 5.13 ERA. In 2021 he made 18 starts but threw only 89.2 innings while posting a 26.1% strikeout rate and 3.92 xFIP. In 54 innings over 11 starts in 2023, Megill has managed just a 17.6% strikeout rate with his swinging strikes dipping from 11.6% last year to 9.5% this season and his CSW% dropping from 26.7% to 24.7%. Megill has actually been slightly better at limiting premium contact so far this season, his barrel rate has dropped from 10.4% to 8.2%, but the results have been poor overall. Megill costs $7,100/$7,500 against a premium Blue Jays lineup, it is difficult to see the path to success even at price. The Blue Jays are pulling in premium home run marks in our model, five of the hitters in their confined lineup crack the magic number for home run potential in our model tonight, with all of George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman, and Daulton Varsho all above the line. Lefty cleanup hitter Brandon Belt falls just below at 8.23, but he is by far the least expensive at $2,500 on both sites, and the first baseman hits in the heart of the order. Belt can be played alongside Guerrero on FanDuel, which is a major advantage compared to having to use him instead of the superstar on DraftKings. Springer has been coming on somewhat with the hit tool, he is over the waterline for run creation as well with a 104 WRC+ as he returns to form. Bichette has led the team across the board, he is outstanding with 12 home runs and a .335/.370/.532 triple-slash. Guerrero has seen a dip in power, but as we have mentioned recently his premium contact has actually increased and the ball should start sailing over the fence soon enough. Chapman has eight home runs and a .209 ISO for the season, Whit Merrifield slots in between him and Varsho with a lot of speed and a reliable hit tool at a fair price with second base and outfield eligibility on both sites, and Varsho still has believable power even if it has been on and off this season. The outfielder has nine home runs but a .167 ISO and 81 WRC+. Alejandro Kirk and Kevin Kiermaier are both usable parts in a mix-and-match sense, Kirk can hit one out as a cheap low-owned catcher and Kiermaier is a defensive specialist who has had a great start to his year at the plate.
The Mets lineup is facing veteran Jose Berrios who has been the better version of himself, for the most part, this year. The righty’s track record has the Mets lineup showing a bit of power potential, but he has them checked at just 4.22 implied runs in Vegas, making for an interesting inflection point for the slate. Berrios has a good-not-great 23% strikeout rate with a 3.86 ERA and 3.89 xFIP this year and he has gotten his problems with power somewhat under control in the small sample. Over 11 starts and 65.1 innings, Berrios has allowed a 2.59% home run rate on 32.3% hard hits, which is down 11 points from the 2022 mark. He has cut barrels from 9.5% last year to 8.6% this season and has limited exit velocity to just 87.2 mph after sitting at 90.0 for the season in 2022. At $9,400/$9,100, Berrios is easily playable on a short pitching slate, but he only projects in the middle of our board against a good Mets lineup. Brandon Nimmo costs $4,400/$3,400, he has four home runs and three stolen bases and provides correlated scoring via his .375 on-base percentage and excellent hit tool. Francisco Lindor has 10 home runs and a 96 WRC+ over 253 plat appearances, which is serving to push his price down. Lindor is notably cheap at $4,800 on the DraftKings slate. Jeff McNeil has a 109 WRC+ while slashing .286/.361/.359 but his .073 ISO and two home runs are not major marks for someone hitting third. McNeil is cheap and has eligibility at second base and in the outfield on both sites. Pete Alonso leads the day with a 17.76 in our home run model that we truly hope he repeats on the 4th of July. Alonso has 20 home runs and a .304 ISO on the season, he is an otherworldly power hitter who costs $5,600/$3,800 this afternoon. Brett Baty has a sturdy 8.83 in our home run model, the rookie has hit four home runs in 139 plate appearances and is a highly regarded young player who has a 51.6% hard-hit rate in that same sample. Starling Marte is coming to life somewhat, he has 17 stolen bases and has been getting involved in recent games. Daniel Vogelbach, Mark Canha, and outstanding rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez close out the projected Mets lineup with three playable parts. Alvarez is the most appealing but the veterans can both still get in the mix for MLB DFS scoring at low popularity and cheap prices.
Play: Blue Jays bats/stacks, Mets bats/stacks, Jose Berrios as-needed
Update Notes: the Blue Jays lineup was confirmed in the first cut. The Mets lineup runs as expected except Alvarez steps out for defense-only catcher Tomas Nido in a downgrade to the bottom of the batting order.
Oakland Athletics (+178/3.37) @ Miami Marlins (-195/4.73)
The final game on the slate, with a half-hour to go before our LIVE recap of all of this content has both of the lineups confirmed and an interesting pitching matchup. Marlins rookie Eury Perez is an outstanding young starter and a heralded prospect who has made four starts and is pitching to a 2.84 ERA but a 4.80 xFIP so far. Perez has a strong 24.1% strikeout rate in his first few starts but he has also walked 12.7% of opposing hitters. The righty has a 13.1% swinging-strike rate with a 28.1% CSW% in the Show but has allowed a 10% barrel rate and 3.80% home run rate on 38% hard hits. Against the lousy Athletics lineup there looks to be a significant ceiling on the starter for just $8,700/$9,300; the DraftKings price is a particularly appealing bargain that will almost certainly have Perez highly owned on the site. Oakland’s active roster ranks 28th out of 30 teams, with just an 84 WRC+ against righties, and they have managed only a .136 ISO while striking out 25.2% of the time in the split. This is an excellent spot for one of the league’s top young arms. Of course, with a rookie on the mound, there is a path to success with Athletics bats as well, we just wish they were a bit better. Esteury Ruiz has 28 stolen bases in 253 plate appearances but needs to pick up the pace if he is getting that 100 that we want for the season. Ruiz has been one of Oakland’s few bright spots, he is creating runs one percent below average but has been good in the overall sense and costs just $3,500/$3,400. Ryan Noda has six home runs and a .211 ISO from the left side of the plate with a run-creation mark that lands 41% better than average. Noda has a 16.7% barrel rate and 47.6% hard-hit rate for the year. Ramon Laureano costs $2,600/$2,800, he has five home runs and four stolen bases but just a .174 ISO and 90 WRC+ in 168 opportunities. Laureano has a 10.4% barrel rate to support the idea of power and we have seen him reach double-digit home run and stolen base totals in multiple recent seasons. Seth Brown hits from the left side with power and a bit of speed, he has three home runs and two steals but is slashing just .172/.232/.344 in 69 plate appearances after missing most of the season’s first third. JJ Bleday, Jace Peterson, and Tony Kemp land fifth, sixth, and eighth, along with Brown they create a low-end gauntlet of lefties for Perez to navigate, but they are mostly non-threatening. Catcher Shea Langeliers is a sneaky power option from time to time, he has seven home runs in 192 plate appearances this year but is slashing just .208/.281/.376 with an 84 WRC+. Nick Allen closes out the Oakland lineup in a low-end defensively-oriented fashion.
Starter Luis Medina has a 20% strikeout rate with a 6.83 ERA and 4.48 xFIP in 27.2 innings and he has had something of a home run problem. With an 11.6% barrel rate and 44.2% hard-hit rate allowed in the small sample it is not difficult to see why that would be the case, but Medina’s 8.33% home run rate is hilariously high even with that level of contact. The righty has made four starts and one bulk relief appearance in which he threw 5.1 innings. He has allowed more than one home run in four of the five appearances and gave up one in the fifth. He allowed two home runs in each of his last two starts before the bulk relief appearance, which was his most recent outing. He allowed three home runs in that spot and is back to a regular starting role. Medina does not have MLB DFS appeal until he figures things out on the mound, and he looks like a big target though the Marlins’ bats are not great against right-handed pitching. Miami’s confirmed lineup opens with Luis Arraez, who is slashing .374/.429/.456 with a 144 WRC+ and makes a great pairing with Jorge Soler who has 17 home runs and a .297 ISO with a 136 WRC+. Soler has light tower power, he has an 18.2% barrel rate and 46.6% hard-hit rate and is one of baseball’s better pure power hitters. Bryan De La Cruz is a talented right-handed hitter for a fair price in the outfield. De La Cruz is slashing .299/.350/.457 with a .157 ISO and 123 WRC+ with seven home runs. Jesus Sanchez returned to the Marlins lineup this week, adding a good lefty bat with a bit of power upside to the lineup. He has four home runs in 87 plate appearances this season. Yuli Gurriel is slashing .273/.338/.402 with a 102 WRC+ in 148 plate appearances. Jean Segua has been bad, he has a 37 WRC+ in 187 plate appearances and is stealing more money from Miami than the bad guys in all three Bad Boys movies. Nick Fortes is a viable catcher with a touch of pop, he hit nine home runs in 240 plate appearances last year. Joey Wendle and Jonathan Davis round out the Marlins lineup at cheap prices.
Play: Eury Perez, Marlins bats/stacks
Update Notes: both lineups were confirmed in the original version.
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