The massive 13-game Friday night MLB DFS slate has a bit of everything on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There is a deep and broad list of available pitchers that fit well on both sites and some of our favorite targets will also be on the mound for their respective teams, giving us plenty to like about the available hitting situations as well. Getting to a broad spread of high-quality options and combinations on this slate is the key to success, with 26 teams on deck we need coverage more than we need to be right about any one specific option. With 13 games and 26 teams to discuss, we’re already behind schedule and will be in high-gear snapshot mode for the day.
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Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/9/23
Kansas City Royals (+164/3.67) @ Baltimore Orioles (-178/4.92)
The Royals are facing righty Tyler Wells who has a 26.6% strikeout rate and 3.29 ERA with a 4.02 xFIP in what has been a good 11 starts and 68.1 innings. Wells has somewhat quietly been posting very strong games with high strikeout totals in five or six-inning appearances this season, his WHIP sits at just 0.85 and he has walked only 5.3% of opposing hitters. There have been hiccups with power for the young righty, he has allowed a 10.7% barrel rate and 5.32% home run rate on the season, but that is a minor concern when he is pitching this well. Wells costs $8,300/$9,700 in a good strikeout matchup against the Royals that plays well as an SP2 on DraftKings. He is not off the board on the FanDuel slate, but there is a deep list of pitching options for the single-starter site. Wells projects to a strong score based on the upside in facing a Royals team with a 26.3% strikeout rate across the projected lineup. Kansas City’s lineup should include Nick Pratto, an effective lefty in the leadoff role with a good hit tool and moderate power upside, but one who strikes out at a 34% clip so far this season. Vinnie Pasquantino and Sal Perez are both over the magic number in our home run model at 10.09 and 12.72 respectively. The duo has combined for 21 home runs, with Perez carrying 12 as the team’s best player. Lefty masher MJ Melendez has a 12.4% barrel rate and 54.7% hard-hit rate but has managed just five home runs and a .150 ISO. Bobby Witt Jr. has 10 home runs and 19 stolen bases on the season, his triple-slash and WRC+ are yet to come around but the counting stats have value in stacks. Nicky Lopez, Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia, and Drew Waters round out the projected lineup as low-end mix-and-match options.
The Orioles are facing lefty Daniel Lynch which should favor Baltimore. The team comes in with a healthy 4.92-run implied total against the southpaw who has a 4.35 ERA and 4.06 xFIP over his two starts and 10.1 innings. Lynch pitched to a 5.13 ERA and 4.30 xFIP in 131.2 innings and 27 starts last year, striking out just 20.3% of opposing hitters while yielding a 47.7% hard-hit rate, 91.2 mph of exit velocity, and a 3.50% home run rate. Lynch does not look like a great option at $6,800/$8,000, the strikeout upside we saw in his outings against the Nationals and Rockies does not seem realistic based on who he has been in the past. Baltimore’s lineup is projected to have Austin Hays in the leadoff role, which is a good spot for the right-handed outfielder who is slashing .302/.341/.483 with a 128 WRC+ this season. Hays is a cheap way to start a good run of Orioles hitters at just $3,700/$2,900 despite a very good season so far. Adley Rutschman is a $5,200 option where catchers are needed and a $3,200 hitter where they are not, he is in play on both sites at .283/.399/.42 with eight home runs and a 133 WRC+. Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle are two sluggers in the heart of the order, they lead the team in our home run model with marks of 8.57 and 8.83 respectively. Aaron Hicks is blocking young players who are better than him right now from reaching the Show, but if he hits fifth at $2,800/$2,600 there is moderate upside if one is building numerous stacks of Orioles. Ramon Urias, James McCann, Gunnar Henderson, and Jorge Mateo are projected to round out the lineup. Each of those pieces is a viable option in a stack of Orioles, Urias is always unpopular and underrated for his salary, McCann specialized against lefties once upon a time, Henderson remains a premium prospect bat despite growing pains, and Mateo still has legs, only his hitting ability has vanished after the scorching start.
Play: Orioles bats/stacks, Tyler Wells who is better as an SP2 on DraftKings, minor hedge stacks of Royals
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (+138/3.65) @ New York Yankees (-150/4.45)
The weekend series between baseball’s bitter rivals opens with a matchup between Gerrit Cole and Garrett Whitlock in the Bronx tonight. Cole has struggled with his stuff this season, as featured in this space for his last start. The righty has lost a significant amount of his strikeout upside along with the whiff rate on several key pitches as he tinkers with his mix to cover for a dip in velocity. So far, Cole has a 25.9% strikeout rate and a 3.97 xFIP under his better-looking 2.82 ERA. The right-handed ace has dipped from a 14.3% swinging-strike rate last year to just 10.7% this year with his CSW% falling from 31.9% to 27.9%. For $11,000/$10,500 against the Red Sox, it seems like the MLB DFS sites are not fully willing to acknowledge the struggles, Cole remains very expensive. His last outing was OK against the Dodgers, he allowed just one run on four hits over six innings while striking out five, but prior to that he was dinged for five runs in two straight outings, striking out nine in one game but just two in the other. Cole has been an enigma this season, while we still believe in the talent figuring things out as time goes on, it is becoming more difficult to recommend him against good lineups while the price remains high. The hope will have to be that the public will feel even worse about the play and leave Cole on the table more frequently than they should, if the righty is under-owned we become more interested. Regardless, Cole belongs in lineups tonight, the question is only to what degree? The Red Sox are 13th in baseball with a collective 102 WRC+ against right-handed pitching and they are eighth best in the game with just a 21% strikeout rate in the split. Boston’s key hitters can be found at the top of the lineup, with a fairly weak bottom-half. Alex Verdugo is a top-end leadoff hitter who has a .364 on-base percentage and 123 WRC+ over 261 plate appearances. The outfielder has five home runs and three stolen bases and costs just $4,700/$3,200 as a way to open stacks of Sox. Masataka Yoshida has been the best hitter in Boston this season, the first-year former NPB star is slashing .315/.387/.491 with a 141 WRC+ to lead the team. Justin Turner and Rafael Devers are inexpensive for their respective talents. Turner has been involved in the offense with a 103 WRC+ hitting third all year, the veteran costs just $3,600/$2,900 at first or third base on either site. Devers is a $5,400/$3,500 third baseman with 13 home runs and a .230 ISO this season, but his run creation and triple-slash numbers are off-standard for the superstar hitter. Adam Duvall should be in the Red Sox lineup tonight, the veteran slugger has been out since mid-April after hitting four quick home runs in his first 37 plate appearances to start the season. Duvall is a sneaky-good option for power upside at just $4,900/$2,800. Jarren Duran, Enrique Hernandez, Emmanuel Valdez, and Reese McGuire round out the bottom of the lineup, Duran has been the best in the group this year and he is affordable in the outfield, while Hernandez offers cheap potential at three positions on the blue site.
The Yankees lineup will be facing Whitolck without their star as Aaron Judge was sent to the injured list earlier in the week. Whitlock has made five starts and thrown 25.2 innings this year, posting an 18.9% strikeout rate and 5.61 ERA with a 4.28 xFIP so far this season. The righty has allowed too much premium contact with an 8.8% barrel rate and 89 mph of exit velocity amounting to a 4.72% home run rate. At $6,500/$7,600 Whitlock looks more targetable with bats than playable on the mound, even against this diminished version of the Yankees. New York is projected to have Willie Calhoun in the leadoff spot, the former top prospect has made 133 plate appearances for the Yankees this season, and he is slashing .244/.316/.403 with a 99 WRC+ and four home runs. Calhoun is a minimum-priced player on the DraftKings slate and costs $2,600 on FanDuel, at the minimum there is inherent value in rostering a leadoff hitter in a Yankees lineup. Gleyber Torres drops to second in this configuration, he has 10 home runs and a 108 ISO on the season and makes for an affordable second base option. Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton are the team’s two dangerous bats, with Josh Donaldson and Jake Bauers projected to follow them in a bit of an extended power core. Rizzo has 11 home runs on the season, Stanton has hit five in 70 plate appearances and Bauers has five in limited opportunities. Donaldson fills third base at a cheap $3,400/$3,200 with power upside, he is an all-or-nothing home run swinger these days and he has four on the season in just 34 plate appearances. Billy McKinney is getting another MLB shot, the well post-hype player hit a home run last night and should be back in the lineup today at cheap prices. Jose Trevino and Anthony Volpe round out the lineup, Volpe is the better DFS play for his infrequent home runs and stolen bases, but things have not been great in his triple-slash or run-creation marks this season.
Play: Gerrit Cole, some Yankees stacks/bats as a mid-level option, minor hedge stacks of Red Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes:
New York Mets (+103/4.71) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-111/4.89)
The Mets will be without their best player as well, slugger Pete Alonso went on the injured list after further testing revealed a more substantial injury from being hit by a pitch earlier in the week than initially thought. In a matchup against lefty Rich Hill, that takes a likely home run off the board for New York. Hill has a 4.41 ERA and 4.44 xFIP over 65.1 innings and 12 starts this season. The veteran lefty has been around league-average with a 21.6% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate this year but he has allowed a bit too much premium contact with his barrel rate spiking from last year’s 8.2% to 11% and hard hits climbing from 34% to 39% so far in 2023. Hill is not inept on the mound by any means, but he can be targeted with bats in the right situation and his ceiling is somewhat limited even at $7,500/$7,800. For the DraftKings price, there is potentially SP2 value in looking Hill’s direction, the Mets have been just a mid-level team against lefties so far this season and the lack of Alonso is crushing for their offensive output. The projected Mets lineup opens as usual with Brandon Nimmo, one of baseball’s best pure leadoff hitters. Nimmo has a .373 on-base percentage and 126 WRC+ and he is not dispossessed of individual upside as well. Francisco Alvarez may find himself hitting second again today with a lefty on the mound and no Alonso in the lineup. Alvarez had a huge day at the plate with two home runs last night and he now has 11 on the year to tie with Francisco Lindor for the lead in the projected lineup. Tommy Pham slots in third between the prodigious young catcher and the struggling star shortstop. Pham has been a serviceable enough option in small doses, he has six home runs and five stolen bases but an ugly triple-slash over 119 plate appearances and has created runs 21% better than average. Lindor has 11 home runs and a .200 ISO but sits exactly at league average for run creation, he will need to do more in Alonso’s absence if the Mets are going to succeed. Mark Canha, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Jeff McNeil are a collection of playable veterans. Canha has a moderate amount of power and speed, he has five home runs and three steals in a down season so far this year. Marte has been lousy but the hit tool has come on somewhat and that supports his stolen base upside, he has 17 steals and is slashing .254/.314/.332. Escobar has just four home runs in 105 plate appearances and lost his full time job. McNeil is a hit-tool specialist who is slashing just .279/.355/.345. Mark Vientos rounds out the projected lineup, he is another high-end hitting prospect for the Mets, but he has not done much over 39 chances so far in the Show.
The Pirates draw Tylor Megill, who has a 17.9% strikeout rate over 59.1 innings and 12 starts this season but he was much better at sitting hitters down the last two seasons. In 47.1 innings and nine starts last year, Megill struck out 25.5% and he posted a 26.1% rate in 89.2 innings over 18 starts in 2021. The righty has a 4.40 ERA and 5.06 xFIP so far this season and his walk rate has essentially doubled year-over-year to an ugly 11.9%. Megill costs $6,700/$8,100, the FanDuel price is probably too high for anything outside of a few darts but the DraftKings price puts him on the low-end SP2 board on the idea of clean innings and a handful of strikeouts against Pittsburgh. The Pirates lineup sits in the middle of the league with a 102 collective WRC+ against righties this year and they have a 22.3% strikeout rate in the split. The projected lineup for Pittsburgh opens with Tucupita Marcano, who has been productive over 123 plate appearances at .270/.325/.459 with a 112 WRC+. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen are productive veterans in the outfield at affordable prices. Reynolds has a 119 WRC+ with a .197 ISO, seven home runs, and eight steals, and McCutchen has a 124 WRC+ with a .167 ISO, seven steals, and eight home runs. Jack Suwinski has hit 11 home runs in 193 plate appearances and has a .248 ISO as the team’s best power hitter. Suwinski has barreled 16% of his batted-ball events with a 44% hard-hit rate both of which are up from last year’s marks that led him to 19 home runs in just 372 plate appearances, he should be more expensive than $3,400/$2,900 tonight. Carlos Santana and Ke’Bryan Hayes have not been great this season. Santana sits at 87 WRC+ in 226 plate appearances with just three home runs, Hayes has hit four homers and has a .154 ISO but just an 88 WRC+. Ji-Hwan Bae has 18 stolen bases but not much else. Josh Palacios and Austin Hedges are projected to round out the lineup.
Play: only minor shares of anything, none of it is great but none of it is terrible… Pirates stacks, Rich Hill, Mets stacks, Megill would probably be the correct ranking.
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-1110/4.87) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+101/4.74)
The Dodgers are drawing one of the leading marks in our Power Index today in a matchup with Ranger Suarez in Philadelphia. The lefty starter has allowed just a 1.83% home run rate this year and has never been overly bad for power, he had a 2.27% home run rate in 29 starts last year and a 0.96% rate over 106 innings with 12 starts and bullpen work in 2021. Suarez has pitched to a 5.47 ERA and 3.79 xFIP this season, he has not been bad on the whole, but his 1.54 WHIP and merely an 18.3% strikeout rate should play right into the Dodgers’ hands. Even if they manage to not hit one over the wall despite what our model is suggesting, there should be opportunities for sequencing and run creation for the low-strikeout excellent Dodgers lineup. Suarez costs just $5,300/$7,400, he is definitely not bereft of talent, particularly at that DraftKings price, but there are just better options than tangling with the Dodgers in this spot. Mookie Betts was price-corrected to $4,300 but still retains his three-position eligibility on the blue site. The superstar has 16 home runs and a 142 WRC+ with a .272 ISO, he is a second baseman or an outfielder with massive upside on DraftKings for $6,200 on DraftKings as well. Freddie Freeman slots in for $6,000/$4,400 at first base while Will Smith is an outstanding catcher option who should be played like an additional first baseman on the FanDuel slate. JD Martinez costs $5,400/$4,200, the Dodgers are crushingly expensive as a stack, which will demand either their combination with extreme value plays, or the use of some of the later lineup price and popularity offsets like Chris Taylor, Miguel Vargas, Jonny DeLuca, and Miguel Rojas. DeLuca costs $2,400 in the outfield on both sites as an interesting cheap hitter if he is in the lineup. Taylor is an established veteran who offers multi-position eligibility for $3,000/$2,700, he is another three-position option in this lineup on FanDuel. The Dodgers are pricey but worthwhile in this spot.
The Phillies are facing Michael Grove, a right-handed rookie starter who has thrown 21 innings in five starts this year and made six starts with 29.1 innings last year. Grove has an unsightly 8.14 ERA and a 4.31 xFIP with a 22.3% strikeout rate in the small sample this year, he posted an 18% strikeout rate with a 4.60 ERA and 4.77 xFIP last year. The righty has allowed too much premium contact so far in the Show, allowing a 4.51% home run rate last year and a 4.26% rate this season. Grove should be targetable with Philadelphia hitters in this spot, the Phillies and Dodgers are carrying similar-looking run totals both in the high fours. Kyle Schwarber has 16 home runs and a .249 ISO for $5,600/$3,000 atop the Phillies lineup, on the whole, the Philadelphia sluggers are far less expensive than their Los Angeles counterparts. Nick Castellanos checks in at $4,900/$3,500 in the outfield, he has seven home runs and a 131 WRC+ on the season. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner add star power to the heart of the lineup, Harper has a 127 WRC+ in his 136 plate appearances this year and is a different play from site to site. On DraftKings, the star outfielder costs a full $6,300, but he is a discounted option at just $3,500 on the FanDuel slate, where he also has first base eligibility. Turner comes in for just $5,600/$3,000 at shortstop amidst ongoing struggles at the plate. Turner has seven home runs in 273 plate appearances and is slashing just .237/.282/.389 for the year. Second baseman Bryson Stott is more effective from higher in the lineup as a direct correlation play with the team’s power, but he is affordable in the heart of the lineup. JT Realmuto remains a strong catcher play and he is fairly cheap at $5,100/$2,800. Brandon Marsh and Kody Clemens are sturdy left-handed bats with mid-range power for cheap prices and low popularity late in the batting order, and Drew Ellis rounds things off at a $2,400/$2,300 price. Ellis has a pair of home runs in 21 plate appearances but has not done much in small samples at the MLB level.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Phillies bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Minnesota Twins (+110/4.14) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-119/4.45)
Lefty starter Yusei Kikuchi is a good target for opposing power hitters, he has a 6.49% home run rate over 61.1 innings and 12 starts this year and had a 5.07% mark last season with a 4.05% rate the year before. If it seems like things are just getting worse as time goes on, that is a very accurate assessment. Kikuchi is allowing more hard hits and a higher average exit velocity year-over-year and his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s effective 27.3% to just 22.9% this year with the lefty inducing fewer swinging strikes. However, at $7,100/$8,400 there is a bit of upside in this spot. Kikuchi has some ability to find strikeouts, and the opposing Twins are a free-swinging bunch that will be missing most of their key hitters and also has a collective 29.2% strikeout rate across the projected starting lineup. That number includes two small samples with high strikeout rates, but if we remove those the remaining seven hitters still land at 27.2%. Drawing a few shares on either side is probably a smart approach, Kikuchi is in no way reliable and probably will give up an odd home run or two, but he could find a solid handful of strikeouts along the way to bolster an MLB DFS score at a cheap price and low ownership. The limited Twins lineup will be missing Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Joey Gallo, with Donovan Solano landing in the leadoff role in the projected lineup. Solano has a 100 WRC+ over 160 plate appearances and has hit zero home runs, but he is easy to afford at $2,200/$2,500 and has eligibility at first and third base on DraftKings. Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis are good options in the infield. Correa has struggled and has been hurt this season but he is very cheap for his talent, Lewis is a high-end prospect who has two home runs in his 33 plate appearances but just a 51 WRC+ and a 33.3% strikeout rate. Kyle Farmer is slated to hit cleanup in a strange bit of casting in this flawed lineup. Farmer is another infield option for $2,900/$2,800, he has three home runs and a 96 WRC+ in 126 plate appearances. Kyle Garlick costs the minimum on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel, he has power potential from the righty side and has hit two homers in 28 plate appearances this year. Garlick hit nine long balls in 162 chances last season. Willi Castro, Michael A. Taylor, and Christian Vazquez round out the odd Twins lineup in its usual fashion.
The Blue Jays will be facing righty Sonny Gray who is probably the best option on the Twins tonight, despite the difficult matchup. Gray has pitched well this season, he has a 2.15 ERA and 3.52 xFIP with a 25.4% strikeout rate over 12 starts and 67 innings. The veteran righty has induced an 11.1% swinging-strike rate, which is a nice jump from the 9.2% he posted last year while striking out 24% over 119.2 innings. Gray has been terrific at limiting opposing power this year as well, over 12 starts he has given up just one home run for a 0.36% home run rate despite 41.8% hard hits. For $9,500/$9,600, Gray is expensive and uncomfortable to roster, which typically adds up to lower ownership than the talent dictates, he is an interesting upside dart this evening. The Blue Jays should be rostered against Gray as well, of course, the elite lineup has plenty to like against even good starters. George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could ruin Gray’s evening in a hurry. The trio has a collective 16.1% strikeout rate and 32 home runs, with Bichette carrying 14 of those and the others each at nine. The expensive group comes at better pricing than the stars on the Dodgers, with similar upside in an any-given-slate sense, but a worse overall matchup. Brandon Belt is an easy way to offset pricing, the lefty slugger is having a good season with a 136 WRC+ over 173 plate appearances but still costs just $2,400/$2,800 in the heart of the projected batting order. Matt Chapman has power potential in the matchup, his premium contact could be devastating to Gray’s upside, and Whit Merrifield provides a good hit-and-speed play from late in the lineup to turn things over and provide moderate scoring ability. Daulton Varsho has come on somewhat of late and now has 11 home runs for the year but is still scuffling overall. Alejandro Kirk and Cavan Biggio round out the projected lineup.
Play: four corners potential: Sonny Gray, some Yusei Kikuchi for strikeout upside at SP2, Blue Jays bats/stacks, small doses of Twins stacks that would be more appealing if their best players were available.
Update Notes:
Houston Astros (-107/4.07) @ Cleveland Guardians (-101/4.01)
Left-handed rookie Logan Allen takes the mound in a good matchup in Cleveland tonight, he will be facing the Astros and has the Houston run total in check at just 4.07 implied runs. Allen has struck out 23.9% of Major League hitters over eight starts and 45.2 innings since his promotion, pitching to a 2.76 ERA and 3.78 xFIP along the way. The southpaw has induced a 12.7% swinging-strike rate and has walked just 6.6%, he is highly regarded for control and command, but is not a premium velocity pitcher, getting by with mid-90s stuff and an effective arsenal of breaking/offspeed pitches. At $7,700/$9,300, Allen is another pitcher who looks better as an SP2 on DraftKings, but he has enough talent to deliver a good score for the FanDuel price and is unlikely to be popular in this spot, even with Astros’ star Yordan Alvarez out of the lineup with an oblique injury. The Astros projected lineup opens with Jeremy Pena with Jose Altuve dropping to second, which was the configuration we saw last night. Pena has eight home runs and six stolen bases and has not done much at the plate this year overall. Altuve is a star at second base, he missed time but has significant upside any day he is in the lineup. Kyle Tucker should climb to the third spot in the absence of Alvarez. Tucker has been in a downswing at the plate, he has been good overall but not at the pace he has put up for power and run creation in recent seasons. The lefty slugger has eight home runs and a 117 WRC+ over 251 plate appearances. Alex Bregman should hit cleanup for $4,700/$3,100, he is still a dangerous hitter but he has not provided as much power as in the past, his nine home runs are good but overall Bregman has just a 3.4% barrel rate with a 35.9% hard-hit rate and .153 ISO. Jose Abreu has been awful over an extended stretch and now will earn a promotion in the lineup based on Alvarez’s absence. Corey Julks is an affordable outfielder with upside from time to time, he has five home runs and eight stolen bases while Chas McCormick has five home runs and four steals in fewer opportunities. McCormick is our preference between the two, but both are viable when going to stacks of Astros. Jake Meyers is good for run creation at cheap prices and Martin Maldonado is affordable where catchers are needed. The scuffling Astros in the absence of their best player against an effective pitcher are not looking like a great option for MLB DFS plays tonight.
Righty Cristian Javier has an opportunity to post a big score on tonight’s slate for $10,800 on both sites. Javier has a 26.4% strikeout rate and 2.84 ERA with a 4.17 xFIP over 69.2 innings in 12 starts. The righty’s reality probably lies somewhere between the ERA and xFIP numbers, he had a 2.54 ERA and 3.53 xFIP over 25 starts and 148.2 innings while striking out more hitters at 33.2% last season but he has been pitching very well in 2023. Javier has cut walks from 8.9% to 5.9% and has a 0.99 WHIP this year. He has allowed too much premium contact with a 12% barrel rate and 89.6 mph of average exit velocity but it has only amounted to a 3.30% home run rate, which is not tragic. Against a Guardians lineup that saw a monster performance from Jose Ramirez, who hit a third of his nine home runs for the season in last night’s game, but has struggled through most of the year, Javier has major potential. Even if he does not find a huge strikeout total against the stingy lineup, the idea of a handful of whiffs along with six or seven clean innings, a win, and a quality start bonus should put Javier firmly on the board. The Guardians are a low-end option at the plate, Steven Kwan has a 93 WRC+ with 10 stolen bases in the leadoff spot, Amed Rosario has one home run and eight stolen bases with a 67 WRC+ over 236 plate appearances, and Ramirez seems unlikely to hit three home runs again tonight, despite his obvious talent at the plate. If nothing else, it is nice to see the third baseman get engaged in the season, though he may have been taking out some hate for yesterday’s Red Sox starter. Josh Naylor and Josh Bell are having different years. Naylor struggled a bit early but has eight home runs and a team-leading 114 WRC+, Bell has four home runs and a 94 WRC+ over 231 plate appearances that have been mostly lousy end-to-end. Andres Gimenez was expected to be far better at the plate, he has three homers and a .245/.307/.358 triple-slash with an 86 WRC+. Will Brennan, Mike Zunino, and Myles Straw round out the projected lineup for Cleveland.
Play: Cristian Javier, Logan Allen
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+173/4.25) @ Atlanta Braves (-190/5.88)
The Nationals will be facing righty AJ Smith-Shawver who is yet to reach the legal drinking age. Shawver pitched in high school in 2021 and debuted in the Braves system the same year at 18. He dominated A-ball over 68.2 innings and 17 starts in 2022, posting a 34.4% strikeout rate with 103 total strikeouts in the mid-size sample. The righty rocketed through the system this season, starting the year in high-A, where he made three starts and put up a 44.2% strikeout rate. He struck out 31% of AA hitters over two starts and seven innings, then made another two starts and threw 12 innings in AAA where he was at 27.7% strikeouts and finally allowed a few runs, his 21 innings in high-A and AA were all shutout innings. Smith-Shawver costs $6,500/$7,200 in what should be a full start tonight, he made a brief appearance in relief on 6/4 and struck out three Diamondbacks hitters while allowing no runs or hits over 2.1 innings and his fastball-slider mix should work at elite levels, particularly with the opportunity to pick Spencer Strider’s brain. Smith-Shawver is a strong buy for season-long leagues if he is available, he is in play against the Nationals tonight for the asking prices on both sites, though the play is probably better where quality starts don’t matter on DraftKings. The Nationals’ projected lineup runs its typical low-end form, with effective leadoff hitter Lane Thomas opening things with his solid 114 WRC+ in 256 plate appearances. Thomas is followed by Luis Garcia and Joey Meneses, the latter of whom has been somewhat effective with his hit tool, but the power has been mostly absent this season. Meneses is slashing .305/.352/.397 but has just a .092 ISO and 106 WRC+ with a 5.7% barrel rate. His 46.9% hard-hit rate inspires faith that more power is on the way. Jeimer Candelario has hit all seven of his home runs this year as a lefty against a righty, he would be in play for a few shares when one is looking to Nationals bats. Dominic Smith has an 87 WRC+ and .037 ISO with one home run in 244 plate appearances this year. Keibert Ruiz is a potential impact bat at catcher in the future if things come together, so far he has seven home runs but just an 87 WRC+ and .153 ISO this year. Corey Dickerson, Ildemaro Vargas, and CJ Abrams are low-end names to close out a low-end lineup.
The Braves are facing Josiah Gray, which should help them boost Smith-Shawver to his first MLB win. Gray went through a stretch of more effective pitching in which we were beginning to wonder if he had figured out how to limit home runs for good, but he has coughed up several long balls in recent outings and remains targetable, particularly against a team with the massive power potential that the Braves bring to the plate every day. Gray has a 19% strikeout rate and 3.09 ERA but a more honest 4.96 xFIP for the season. The righty costs $6,900/$8,000 and offers a modicum of SP2 upside on DraftKings for those who embrace risk, but the play and the path to success are very very thin. Ronald Acuna Jr. has an 18.26 in our home run model, placing him just behind Matt Olson who has an 18.69 to lead the team and the entire slate. Acuna has 12 home runs and 28 stolen bases this year, Olson has 17 home runs with a .269 ISO and 129 WRC+, they are always in play. Austin Riley has 11 home runs and has seemingly come out of his mini-slump. Sean Murphy is one of the best power-hitting catchers in baseball, he has a dozen home runs and a .265 ISO in 211 plate appearances. Eddie Rosario has provided quality from the left side for the heavily right-handed lineup. Rosario has eight home runs and a .205 ISO over 198 plate appearances but has slipped to just 92 WRC+. Ozzie Albies gets his plate appearances from both sides, he has 14 home runs in 258 plate appearances but somehow still costs just $4,400/$3,000 at second base. Albies is never afforded enough love by the DFS pricing algorithms or the public in general, he belongs in more lineups. Marcell Ozuna is our overall home run pick for the day, he has a 13.95 in our model and has blasted 12 long balls already this season. Orlando Arcia is a highly playable infielder from late in the lineup, particularly with three-position eligibility for just $2,700 on FanDuel. Michael Harris II has struggled but is discounted for the big dip in quality, the talent is still there and we are buyers at $3,000/$2,700.
Play: AJ Smith-Shawver, Braves bats/stacks, minor Josiah Gray value darts as a DraftKings SP2 are OK
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+210/3.79) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-233/5.84)
Righty Adrian Houser has made six starts and produced a 3.45 ERA and 4.16 xFIP over 31.1 innings so far this season. Houser has not overwhelmed opposing hitters, he has just a 14.1% strikeout rate with a 1.44 WHIP despite just a 5.2% walk rate in the small sample. The righty has kept power in check, which is typical for him, Houser has allowed just a 1.48% home run rate on a 5.4-degree angle with 4.6% barrels. Last season those marks were 1.76% home runs on a 10.3-degree angle and 5.6% barrels and the season before it was two percent home runs but a 1.4-degree launch angle on the average with five percent barrels. Houser is effective at keeping the ball in the yard and limiting opposing run creation, but he is not a major DFS option with the lack of strikeout potential, even against the lowly Athletics for $6,000/$8,300. A few SP2 darts are fine if one is so inclined, the price is right for a clean innings-based start, but the path to success is thin with so much available pitching. Oakland’s low-end lineup opens with Esteury Ruiz who has 29 stolen bases in 273 plate appearances but does not get on base frequently enough at just .321, he has a 93 WRC+ on the season and needs his teammates to help push his DFS value. Ryan Noda is the best player on the Athletics right now, he has gotten on base at a .415 clip and has a 158 WRC+ with seven home runs and a .218 ISO in the books. Ramon Laureano is a semi-capable option with moderate power and speed. Seth Brown is better for both home run potential and stolen base upside, he has three homers and two steals in just 89 plate appearances and was a 25/11 player last year, Laureano has five home runs and six steals in 183 plate appearances this year. Jace Peterson, Jonah Bride, JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers, and Kevin Smith close the projected lineup. Bleday has the idea of left-handed power at the plate, Laureano is an underappreciated catcher with power, he has eight home runs in 210 plate appearances this season.
The Brewers will be facing Sam Moll, a left-handed reliever who will be acting in an opener capacity ahead of bulk reliever Luis Medina, who is targetable with bats. Moll has a 26.2% strikeout rate over 21.2 relief innings this season and will likely throw only one inning, he has not been asked to pitch more than 1.1 innings all season. Medina has a 4.81 xFIP and 8.19 ERA with a 19.1% strikeout rate in 29.2 innings over five starts and six total appearances. This is a spot in which one can roster Brewers bats with a reasonable expectation of upside, the team has been a strong value play of late with the odd quad-A hitters who have landed in their lineup in recent games. Tonight’s projected batting order is a bit more straightforward with more of a lean toward Major League talent. Owen Miller is having a good year with a 115 WRC+ and a .308/.343/.449 triple-slash over 166 plate appearances. Willy Adames hit a homer in his return and has 10 on the year in 223 plate appearances, he is a good option at shortstop for just $4,200/$3,000 tonight. William Contreras and Christian Yelich have power potential, each has seven home runs on the season with Contreras carrying a 48.5% hard-hit rate and Yelich at 53.4%. Brian Anderson and Luis Urias are playable parts, Urias is still cheap at $3,600/$2,300, he slots in at second or third base on DraftKings and has three-position eligibility with shortstop added on the blue site. Rowdy Tellez slides down the lineup with the return of some quality teammates, he has 12 home runs and a .218 ISO and may go under-owned from late in the batting order. Tellez is a good buy at $4,600/$2,900, he has significant home run upside once Median is in the game. Andruw Monasterio and Joey Wiemer are mix-and-match options late in the lineup.
Play: Brewers bats/stacks, maybe DraftKings SP2 value from Adrian Houser but the strikeouts won’t be there
Update Notes:
Miami Marlins (+116/3.84) @ Chicago White Sox (-125/4.25)
A good pitching matchup in Chicago has the Marlins and White Sox carrying run totals of 3.84 and 4.25 tonight. Dylan Cease will take the mound for the home team, the righty has a 24.6% strikeout rate but has walked 10.6% while pitching to a 4.63 ERA and 4.37 xFIP so far this season. Cease has been better in years past, he had a 30.4% strikeout rate last year and 31.9% mark the year before, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from an outstanding 15% last year to just 11.9% (still good) this year. The righty is facing a Marlins lineup that has a few free swingers but a few elite contact hitters, which will present him with a good challenge at $9,200/$9,800. Cease is easily on the board, he projects among our top five starters for the night in this matchup and has significant strikeout potential on any given slate. The Marlins projected lineup has a 21.7% strikeout rate this season, Luis Arraez is projected to lead off ahead of masher Jorge Soler in the perfect combination of skillsets. Arraez gets on base at an outrageous .452 clip and he is hitting .403 for the season. Soler destroys baseballs with regularity, he has 17 home runs and a .283 ISO in 246 opportunities. Bryan De La Cruz checks in at an immediate discount from his affordable but more expensive teammates. De La Cruz is slashing .299/.352/.467 with a 125 WRC+ but costs just $4,300/$2,900. Garrett Cooper has six home runs in 170 plate appearances, Jesus Sanchez has six in just 109 chances this year and is slashing .306/.376/.582 with a .276 ISO and 161 WRC+ in the small sample, and Joey Wendle can provide a bit of correlated scoring at a cheap price. Jean Segura rivals Jose Abreu for the Veteran Doing the Least for his Club Award this year, he has a 36 WRC+ over 202 plate appearances while slashing .190/.259/.217. Nick Fortes and Jonathan Davis round out the projected Marlins lineup.
The White Sox have reached full health and sit just 3.5 games behind the Twins in the weak AL Central despite all of their struggles and a 28-36 record. Chicago is facing elite young righty Eury Perez, who has made five starts and thrown 24 innings since his promotion. Perez has a 24.2% strikeout rate and a 2.25 ERA but a 4.57 xFIP and an 11.1% walk rate. It has not all been pretty with Perez, but there is clear talent and strikeout acumen in the pitcher and he costs just $8,900/$9,200 with a ceiling tonight, putting him in play for MLB DFS purposes. Perez draws a projected White Sox lineup that opens with struggling Tim Anderson and Andrew Benintendi. Neither hitter has provided what is expected of them this season, namely a strong hit tool with around a .300 average and good on-base percentages with run creation upside, speed, and, in Anderson’s case, some power. The shortstop and the outfielder are both cheap to start a stack and they are far better than the 72 and 86 WRC+ they are carrying this year. If nothing else, they present a strikeout challenge to Perez right out of the gate, both hitters are good at putting the ball in play. Luis Robert Jr. has 14 home runs and a .257 ISO this year, Eloy Jimenez is an elite power hitter when he is healthy, Yoan Moncada lands at three home runs and an 86 WRC+ in a limited sample, and Andrew Vaughn has produced runs at a pace 11% better than the average over 259 plate appearances. Yasmani Grandal and Jake Burger are capable options in small doses. Grandal has a knack for getting on base but has been limited to just a 96 WRC+ so far this year while Burger has blasted 13 home runs in 153 plate appearances but has normalized over an extended sample. Gavin Sheets is a decent lefty power bat late in the lineup, Elvis Andrus is not good but can be deployed in small doses for MLB DFS purposes at $2,400 with multi-position eligibility in the infield.
Play: Dylan Cease, Eury Perez, minor shares of either stack
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (+155/3.52) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-169/4.58)
Left-handed veteran Jordan Montgomery draws the Reds tonight in a home start that might finally afford him the opportunity to book a win. Montgomery will have to navigate a lineup that includes everyone’s favorite new player, Elly De La Cruz, who is slashing .364/.462/.909 with a 246 WRC+ and .545 ISO over his first 13 plate appearances in the Show. De La Cruz flashed a bit of everything so far, he has a home run and a stolen base already and has hit for the career cycle with a triple, double, and single filling out his four hits. He has also struck out six times in 13 plate appearances (46.2%). Montgomery has more than enough talent to navigate this lineup and find some strikeouts along the way. The southpaw has pitched to a 4.23 ERA and 3.98 xFIP this season, he has a 20.8% strikeout rate over 66 innings and 12 starts and can be expected to pitch fairly deep while chasing a win and quality start for just $7,300/$8,200. Montgomery is a good value option tonight, the Reds rank 23rd with a 98 WRC+ against lefties this season and there are plenty of strikeouts in this version of the lineup. De La Cruz is projected to hit cleanup behind leadoff man Kevin Newman, fellow rookie Matt McLain, and veteran Jonathan India. Newman is a low-end option who can put the ball in play but does not do much at the plate, but McLain and India are good pieces. McLain has two home runs and a 149 WRC+ with a .354/.404/.531 triple-slash over 104 plate appearances since his promotion and costs just $4,500/$3,700. India has six home runs and 12 stolen bases with a 107 WRC+ over 278 opportunities. Spencer Steer is having a good year at the plate, he is projected to hit fifth after De La Cruz. Steer costs $4,300/$3,400 and has eight home runs with a 124 WRC+ over 255 plate appearances. Tyler Stephenson, TJ Hopkins, Stuart Fairchild, and Jose Barrero round out the projected lineup, those going to Reds in this spot would do well to focus on the top five.
The Cardinals are facing righty Ben Lively who has been effective over four starts and 29.2 innings this year. Lively has a 24.8% strikeout rate and a 3.03 ERA with a 3.90 xFIP, and his strikeout rate has jumped to 28.1% in a starting role. Lively is facing a Cardinals lineup that has been effective for run creation this year, despite the team’s record. St Louis sits ranks eighth against right-handed pitching with a collective 108 WRC+ and they have a .180 ISO with just a 20.4% strikeout rate in the split. Key hitters for St. Louis include leadoff man Brendan Donovan who should be capable of providing correlated scoring with the team’s power core from the left side of the plate at cheap prices but has been only OK this year. Donovan has a 98 WRC+ overall and a 93 as a leadoff hitter. If he gets on base more ahead of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, and Nolan Arenado it seems as though he will have the opportunity to score more often. Goldschmidt has 10 home runs with a .205 ISO and 142 WRC+ on the season, he is slashing .286/.385/.491 over 273 plate appearances and has a 14% barrel rate and 53.9% hard-hit rate, he remains one of the top first basemen in baseball. Gorman surged to 14 early home runs, he has a .269 ISO and 139 WRC+ but has just one home run in his last 15 games (since May 2oth). Arenado had a cool start but now has 11 home runs with a 109 WRC+ for what are still cheap prices for his talent. At $5,200/$3,100 the star third baseman is a strong buy in this matchup. Willson Contreras has been lousy at the plate, he is slashing .210/.295/.367 with an 86 WRC+ in a problem spot for the Cardinals, given his defensive acumen and relationship with the Cardinals’ pitching staff as their primary catcher. Alec Burleson costs $2,400/$2,600, he has a .164 ISO and 84 WRC+ so far this season. Paul DeJong, Jordan Walker, and Tommy Edman are all playable parts from the bottom of the lineup with a blend of power and speed potential for cheap prices and low ownership. DeJong has eight home runs but has cooled quickly, he is a veteran who has been capable of home run power into the 20s in seasons past. Walker is a high-end rookie who is still figuring things out at the plate, he has three home runs and two steals while slashing .258/.317/.387. Edman is a good wraparound play with speed and pop, he has six home runs and nine steals with a 102 WRC+ in 217 plate appearances this year.
Play: Jordan Montgomery, Cardinals bats/stacks as a mid-tier option
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (-191/6.77) @ Colorado Rockies (+174/4.88)
In the interest of time, this game is taking place at Coors Field and the Padres have a 6.77-run implied total, Austin Gomber is not a realistic option on the mound for $5,000/$6,600, he is a low-strikeout lefty who is likely to get into trouble quickly in this matchup. The Padres’ lineup includes several outrageously talented options and a few mediocre players in an interesting mix. Ha-Seong Kim is in the leadoff spot in the projected lineup, but that role will depend on the potential return of Xander Bogaerts, who refused a trip to the injured list and seems intent on playing tonight. If Bogaerts is back in the lineup we will likely see the typical configuration with Fernando Tatis Jr. leading off ahead of Juan Soto, followed by Bogaerts and Manny Machado. In any order, if Bogaerts plays, those four hitters are fantastic options in a Coors Field game. Particularly when both Bogaerts and Machado are discounted in the price column fairly significantly. Kim would be fine in the leadoff role and he is playable from later in the lineup. The infielder has multi-position eligibility on both sites for $4,200/$3,300 and has five home runs with 11 stolen bases this year after going 11/12 last year and 8/6 the year before. Kim is an effective enough player for the price. Gary Sanchez is having a nice “told ya so” start to his Padres career, in 39 plate appearances the slugging catcher has four home runs and a .400 ISO with a 168 WRC+. Sanchez has always been this hitter, when he connects he tends to mash, when he does not he sits down with a strikeout, there is no mystery here just a valuable price-based play at the catcher position. Jake Cronenworth was better last year, he has a 92 WRC+ and just a .208/322/.356 triple-slash. Brandon Dixon, Aaron Nola, and Trent Grisham will be fairly popular given the Coors of it all, but they are only mix-and-match level talents.
The Rockies will be facing Yu Darvish, who is playable in a Coors Field start for $8,000/$9,500 if one is inclined toward those types of risks. Darvish has a 26.4% strikeout rate with a 4.10 ERA and 3.70 xFIP for the season in 11 starts and 63.2 innings. The righty has induced an 11.1% swinging-strike rate and has a 30.2% CSW% for the season, he is pitching mostly to his expected form. While we do not typically focus on ballpark-based performances for pitchers, Coors is a different animal and it is worth a quick look. Darvish has started at Coors five times in his long career, he has been relatively effective and was very good in his last outing which came last September. In that contest, Darvish fired six innings of two-run eight-strikeout ball while allowing just five hits and talking one in what was his best start in this environment. With the ballpark already impacting his price, it is easy enough to go to Darvish against the lousy Rockies. Charlie Blackmon is projected to lead off ahead of Jurickson Profar and Ryan McMahon. Blackmon and McMahon are more interesting hitters than Profar, who should sit or drop in the lineup in favor or someone like Nolan Jones, who has been raking since his promotion and who should have been with the team since Spring Training as was originally planned. Randal Grichuk is projected to hit cleanup with Jones fifth, Grichuk is slashing .325/.386/.465 but has just one home run and a .140 ISO in 127 plate appearances. Jones has a .366/.395/.610 triple-slash with two home runs and a .244 ISO in 43 opportunities. Ezequiel Tovar, Harold Castro, Brenton Doyle, and Austin Wynns follow. Doyle is easily the most interesting name at the bottom of the lineup, he has four home runs in 115 plate appearances and is sporting an 11.8% barrel rate.
Play: bats bats bats and also some Yu Darvish
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (+107/3.68) @ Los Angeles Angels (-16/3.90)
The pitching duel of the day sees Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the hometown Angels and Luis Castillo going for the visiting Mariners. Both pitchers are worthy of significant investment, there are strikeouts available on both sides of the equation, and the two aces are pitching up to their expected talents. Ohtani has a 33.8% strikeout rate over 71 innings in 12 starts, he has a 3.30 ERA and 3.30 xFIP with a 14% swinging-strike rate and 32.6% CSW% that put him among the best few pitchers in baseball for strike-throwing. The elite Castillo is not far behind, he has a 29.2% strikeout rate with a 2.55 ERA and 3.27 xFIP and he has induced a 15.4% swinging-strike rate with a 30.3% CSW% that also sit among the league leaders. The Mariners’ righty strikes out slightly fewer hitters than Ohtani, but he also issues free passes at about half the pace, Ohtani has a 10.2% walk rate, perhaps his only flaw, while Castillo has a very good 5.7% walk rate. Both pitchers demand attention, Ohtani costs $10,400/$10,000 and Castillo is a $9,800/$10,600 plate, the DraftKings price should render Catillo one of the most popular pitchers on the entire slate, that price is too cheap for this caliber starter.
The bats, of course, are moderately playable on either side as well, with a slight lean toward the Mariners given the lack of Ohtani for DFS purposes in the Angels lineup. Neither side is ideal with these two high-strikeout starters on the mound however, both teams seem likely to be checked by the talent on the mound, which is how Vegas is seeing this one with both teams carrying run totals well below 4.0. Prime options from the Mariners include Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Cal Raleigh, Teoscar Hernandez, and Jarred Kelenic, with JP Crawford there for a bolt-on from the top of the lineup or Eugenio Suarez as a late-lineup power bat. Mike Ford and Kolten Wong are projected in the final two spots at low prices for a reason. On the Angels side, the focus should clearly be on Mike Trout and the surrounding cast, but it is not great without Ohtani available. He will be there to drive in runs in real life, but Trout alongside only Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury, with a smattering of Taylor Ward and Mickey Moniak or Jared Walsh, depending on who plays, feels like an underwhelming option on a very deep slate. Matt Thaiss is projected to catch and Zach Neto should close out the lineup in the infield.
Play: Shohei Ohtani, and Luis Castillo both in large portions
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (+101/3.99) @ San Francisco Giants (-110/4.11)
There is a pitching duel scheduled in San Francisco as well, it just takes place on a different tier than the one in Los Angeles. Veteran righties Marcus Stroman and Anthony DeSclafani will take the mound for their respective teams as playable parts, particularly for their SP2 prices on the DraftKings slate. DeSclafani has a 3.97 ERA and 4.07 xFIP with a 17.6% strikeout rate and an excellent 4.1% walk rate over 70.1 innings and 12 starts, both he and Stroman are capable of posting clean innings but they are both better real-life starters than they are high-end DFS options. DeSclafani faces a free-swinging Cubs team that could lend him strikeout upside beyond his typical output, but he should not be expected to find more than four or five in six to seven innings. The hope with this pitcher is for clean innings and depth with bonuses. Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki are a quality core of hitters who find upside from sequencing, on-base skills, and moderate power, as well as some speed. The group comes fairly cheap compared to other stacks, and they are relatively inexpensive, but rate as just a lower mid-range play overall. Mike Tauchman and Trey Mancini are middling options in the heart of the lineup, Matt Mervis and Patrick Wisdom are more interesting bats for power if they play. Miles Mastrobuoni and Tucker Barnhart should close out the fairly weak lineup tonight.
Stroman has a 2.39 ERA and 3.61 xFIP with a 22% strikeout rate over 79 innings in 13 starts, he is reliable for depth and fairly clean innings, but he has a relatively low ceiling overall for MLB DFS. Stroman is good at keeping the ball down and checking opposing power though, his talents have the Giants capped in our home run model and they are showing fairly low expectations for run creation with a 4.11-run implied total in this matchup. Stroman may not be ideal for DFS, the $10,200 price on FanDuel is particularly challenging, but he is keeping the Giants down in the lower end of the pool of hitting/stacking options. Stroman can be played as an SP2 on DraftKings. LaMonte Wade Jr. is criminally underrated against righties in the leadoff role, he costs $4,200/$3,100 with eight home runs, a .419 on-base percentage, and a 149 WRC+ this season. Thairo Estrada has good power and very good speed, he has seven home runs and 14 stolen bases while slashing .300/.347/.478 this year. Joc Pederson has titanic left-handed power, he has a .228 ISO and five home runs in 111 plate appearances. JD Davis, Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, and Mike Yastrzemski make for a good four-man stretch of power and run creation that goes righty-lefty-righty-lefty in a solid construction at cheap prices. There are a lot of strikeouts in that group as well, the power upside is real but between the whiffs and Stroman’s knack for keeping the ball in the yard, this may not be their night. Patrick Bailey and Brandon Crawford close out the projected lineup.
Play: minor shares of DeSclafani or Stroman are fine, particularly as SP2s on DraftKings, the bats are decent on both sides in general but the pitchers have them somewhat capped for upside on most nights.
Update Notes:
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