The 10-game main slate gets rolling at 7:05 ET this evening on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a wealth of options on both sides of the game. The pitching board has a few quality veteran starters at a variety of current-year performance points and salaries facing fairly low-end competition. While there is perhaps no true ace on the board, several of tonight’s starters have previously qualified for that mantle in their careers. The board also contains a fair number of mid-level talents and is somewhat thin on true gas cans on the mound. There is a Coors Field game in play and it involves some heavy-duty star power that will be highly rostered in the spot. Making a decision on Coors and getting to a somewhat broad spread of the premium pitching options are two keys to approaching tonight’s slate.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
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Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/23/23
Texas Rangers (-108/4.34) @ New York Yankees (-100/4.25)
The opening game of the slate will have a friend of the site in attendance during her trip to the New York area and a matchup between the Rangers and Yankees in the somewhat rainy Bronx. The Rangers are facing Clarke Schmidt, who has been mostly effective but is still a growing pitcher in his first full season. The righty has made 15 starts and thrown 71.2 innings of 4.65 ERA baseball. His 4.09 xFIP is somewhat better and his 23.3% strikeout rate is solid but unspectacular. Schmidt has induced a 10.3% swinging strike rate but has allowed a bit too much premium contact with an 8.8% barrel rate, 44.2% hard hits, and 91.4 mph of exit velocity amounting to a 3.51% home run rate for the season. Schmidt typically works with a short leash, manager Aaron Boone has no qualms about hooking him early in the fifth inning if he puts runners on base, which cuts into the starter’s upside. At $7,200/$7,700 against one of baseball’s best offenses in a hitter-friendly park there is not much appeal to Schmidt today. The elite Rangers lineup is carrying a total that just feels a bit low for this team in Yankee Stadium against this pitcher, they project well for MLB DFS purposes and seem like a playable position on the slate, particularly if other sites or Vegas totals encourage gamers in other directions. An interesting way to approach building stacks of Rangers is to make a decision from the bottom of the lineup and work around to the top, knowingly offering a portion of a projected plate appearance to the DFS gods in exchange for a price offset while maintaining good correlated construction. The Rangers are an ideal team for this purpose, they typically have at least one of, if not both, Ezequiel Duran and Leody Taveras hitting in the final spots in the lineup. Duran has been in a season-long breakout but his prices have barely budged. On DraftKings he is a $3,200 outfielder, on FanDuel he is a ridiculous piece of value that adds second base and shortstop to the outfield positioning for the same price. The Swiss-Army Knife player is slashing .310/.355/.524 with nine home runs and four stolen bases in 200 plate appearances and is fully delivering on his long-expected talent. Taveras has been equally good this year. Over 234 opportunities, the outfielder is slashing .299/.352/.481 with eight home runs and seven stolen bases while creating runs 31% better than average. Both players will be far less popular than the star teammates above them in the batting order, either can be utilized as an opening point prior to jumping to the top of the lineup so that they function as a leadoff hitter ahead of the team’s quality for turn two and beyond through the lineup. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are stars in the middle infield and atop the Rangers’ high-scoring lineup. Semien has created runs 19% better than average and has 10 home runs, Seager has been 89% better than average in his 196 plate appearances and is slashing an outrageous .358/.418/.642. They are both expensive but offsetting price is another reason to open a lineup with cheap unpopular quality, star prices can be averaged down via that approach. Nathaniel Lowe offers a similar price offset as the least popular player from the top half of the Texas lineup. Lowe has eight home runs and has created runs 23% better than average with a good-not-great triple-slash. Adolis Garcia has 16 home runs and has stolen six bases. The outfielder ran more last season, swiping 25 bags in 657 plate appearances, but he has been excellent with the bat in his hand this year, pushing every aspect of his triple-slash upward while blasting home runs and hitting for a .227 ISO in his 315 chances. Garcia has a 14.4% barrel rate and 51% hard-hit rate. Josh Jung is at 11.9% barrels and 49.3% hard hits and has hit on one side of Garcia or the other all season. Jung is another player having a big breakout year, he has 15 home runs and a .218 ISO while creating runs 26% better than average. Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver give the team a powerful two-headed monster at the catcher position, either or both can be included in a lineup on either site.
The Yankees have been scoring an average of fewer than 3.5 runs per game since Aaron Judge landed on the injured list, this is not a very good team when their superstar is absent. Righty Dane Dunning is on the mound for Texas for $5,700/$7,800, he has been moderately effective in spots this season and throughout his career but ultimately is a low-end starter who is correctly priced in this spot. Dunning has a 2.78 ERA but a far more honest 4.82 xFIP for the season while striking out just 14.6% and walking 7.1%. He has given up just a 1.50% home run rate in eight starts and 64.2 total innings that include long relief work out of the bullpen, he is reasonably good at keeping launch angles down which helps keep the ball in the yard, and he is not facing a good version of the Yankees lineup, but there is only limited appeal on the DraftKings slate at his cheap hitter price. New York’s projected lineup opens with Jake Bauers who has good left-handed power when he connects. Bauers is up to $2,700 and slots into the outfield on DraftKings, where he is more valuable, and first base on FanDuel. Bauers has six home runs and a .250 ISO in 124 plate appearances with a 20.3% barrel rate and 48.6% hard-hit rate in the tiny sample, he has also struck out at a 29% clip this year. Gleyber Torres costs $5,100/$3,000 at second base, he has 12 home runs and a .176 ISO with a 111 WRC+ over 308 plate appearances and has been a good overall player for this team while hitting high in the lineup at cheap prices, when going to Yankees Torres is one of the better options. Anthony Rizzo has been mired in a weeks-long slump but has shown signs of coming around over the last seven days or so. The first baseman is a star hitter when things are going right, he suffered a minor injury several weeks ago in a collision at first base that coincided with his downturn and could be the culprit, with the idea of a healed player getting back to work there is an appeal in the now underpriced Rizzo for $4,000/$2,800. Giancarlo Stanton has massive power at the plate but he has yet to find his timing since returning from the injured list. Stanton is visibly struggling at the plate and is trying to hit the ball to the moon every time, which is a feat he has only managed two or three times in his career. At $4,900/$2,800, Stanton is officially underpriced facing a contact-oriented pitcher in Yankee Stadium, but Dunning may induce three ground balls from the slugger. Josh Donaldson is slashing .127/.200/.413 with six home runs in 70 plate appearances and is getting the Aaron Hicks treatment from tourists masquerading as Yankees fans every time he comes to the plate. Donaldson is not a good player at this point, but if he is selling out for power at the plate it works well enough for some DFS shares when stacking Yankees, particularly at $3,300/$2,800. Billy McKinney has been a nice story over 46 plate appearances, the outfielder was once a well-regarded prospect and he has been raking in this latest opportunity. McKinney has three home runs and is slashing .318/.348/.636 with a 169 WRC+ in the tiny sample. Harrison Bader is productive when he is in the lineup, he has mid-range power and good speed that results in counting stats in bunches. Bader costs $3,900 on DraftKings and is, oddly, the most expensive Yankees player at $3,100. Jose Trevino is more of a defense-first catcher, and Anthony Volpe provides unreliable counting stats from the bottom of the batting order. The rookie is slashing .196/.273/.364 with a 77 WRC+ but he has 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks, Yankees bats/stacks for value
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (-105/4.31) @ Baltimore Orioles (-103/4.28)
The Mariners and Orioles face off in Baltimore with Kyle Gibson leading his team into battle. The veteran righty has made 15 starts and is carrying a 3.94 ERA with a 4.43 xFIP and a 17.7% strikeout rate coming into action. Gibson has induced a 9.1% swinging-strike rate with a 26.5% CSW%, the CSW mark is roughly in line with his strike-throwing over the past two seasons, but Gibson is getting fewer swinging strikes, he was at 11% last year and 10.3% the season before. The righty has been good at keeping home runs in check he has a 1.90% home run rate despite a 42.3% hard-hit rate and eight percent barrels. Gibson is an effective veteran who can eat innings and keep a team in line on most nights, but the matchup against the Mariners warrants a bit of additional consideration given their collective 26.5% strikeout rate in the projected lineup. Seattle has a good offense when they connect but they can be made to look inept at times by the right pitcher. Gibson has not been a high-end strikeout option this season but he was at least at 20% over the past two years. For $8,100/$9,200 Gibson is probably incorrectly priced to be a true value play, but it would not be a total surprise to see him post a fairly impactful score in this matchup. At the same, it would be even less surprising to see the contact-oriented starter get tattooed by a hard-hitting Seattle squad. JP Crawford is projected to land back in the leadoff role, the lefty shortstop has a .349 on-base percentage that was far better before his move up the batting order. Crawford has created runs six percent better than average for the season and has four home runs in 279 plate appearances, he is primarily here for correlated scoring for a cheap price. Julio Rodriguez has a team-leading 8.74 in our home run model, he has 12 long balls and 16 stolen bases on the season. The sophomore has not been as good as expected outside of his counting stats, but he is affordable at $5,400/$3,700 tonight. Ty France has lacked the power that pushed him to 20 home runs last season but he is still a cheap and talented option for correlated scoring in the heart of this lineup at $3,600/$2,700. Jarred Kelenic and Eugenio Suarez have tremendous power and tons of strikeouts, Kelenic is at 33% strikeouts with 11 home runs it seems like he has been carrying for a while now, and Suarez has hit seven home runs while striking out 28.8%. Cal Raleigh has a big bat at the catcher position, he has 10 home runs on the season but is another all-or-nothing hitter. Mike Ford has a 38.1% strikeout rate over 42 plate appearances, but he has also hit four home runs, which is what we would roster him for at $2,100 on either site. Jose Caballero is the other option to lead off, he has been good this season with a .370 on-base percentage over 146 plate appearances which has pushed him to a 114 WRC+ with two homers and 10 stolen bases in the books.
The Orioles draw righty Logan Gilbert who is piling up one of our top pitching projections on this slate. Gilbert costs just $9,800/$9,000 after a few recent rough outings that will hopefully keep his public popularity down even at the low price. Overall, this is a very talented 26-year-old righty at a good price in a matchup that is at worst OK, Gilbert has appeal with how he projects in our model. The righty has a 4.31 ERA and 3.61 xFIP over 79.1 innings in 14 starts, other than the recent stretch that included a four-inning start and a 3.1-inning start, Gilbert has been reliable for depth and a good chance at the quality start, he is a control and command specialist who does not waste pitches or offer up many free passes, and his team has a chance to find a win for him as well. Gilbert has a 26% strikeout rate and just a 5.0% walk rate so far this season, he induces an 11.1% swinging-strike rate and has a 27.8% CSW%, but he has made mistakes in the zone that have cost him to the tune of a 9.9% barrel rate with 41% hard hits and a 3.41% home run rate. Assuming no issues in the premium contact department, Gilbert has a strong chance to post a good score for DFS and challenge the slate leaders tonight at a good price and, hopefully, less popularity than he should draw. The Orioles are carrying a 4.28-run implied total, their talented lineup can be deployed in this spot, but they are missing their big power bat at first base and there are a few lame ducks toward the bottom of the batting order. Gunnar Henderson has blossomed into a star as Summer has arrived, he is slashing .242/.343/.464 with a .222 ISO and 11 home runs while creating runs 24% better than average over 239 plate appearances for the season. Henderson is still striking out at a 30.1% clip overall but his 13% walk rate is excellent and he strikes the ball very well with a 13.3% barrel rate and 51.1% hard hits. Henderson is still a bit cheap at $4,800/$3,400 and he offers eligibility at third base and shortstop on both sites. Adley Rutschman is a star catcher who is appropriately priced at $5,400/$3,200. The backstop is slashing .272/.382/.425 with a 127 WRC+ and 10 home runs in 319 opportunities. Anthony Santander has 11 home runs with a .208 ISO while creating runs 19% better than average over 296 typically sturdy plate appearances. The switch-hitter costs just $4,600/$3,300 in the outfield tonight. Ryan O’Hearn is slashing a ridiculous .341/.378/.615 with a .275 ISO and six home runs in 98 plate appearances. The lefty is not that hitter, but while he is pretending to be he can be rostered for $3,200/$2,600 with eligibility at first base on both sites and adding outfield on DraftKings. Austin Hays is as good as his .323/.362/.520 with eight home runs and a 143 WRC+, or thereabouts. Hays is cheap at $3,900/$3,200 in the outfield, he has an 11.7% barrel rate with a 43.1% hard-hit rate on the season and has been very good all year despite seeing strikeouts bounce upward by about four points. Aaron Hicks costs $2,700/$2,400 and, in case you haven’t heard, since leaving the Yankees he has hit every home run for every team in baseball while also writing bulletproof code to protect humanity from the looming threat of AI, saving a dozen kittens from a crocodile in a Baltimore sewer, and brought peace to Ukraine. Hicks’ performance with the Orioles has been undeniable, he was always a talented hitter and he was certainly railroaded by impatient Yankees supporters, so it is actually nice to see him show life at the plate. Adam Frazier, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo are all capable options for small shares of action in Orioles stacks, they are a flawed group of hitters overall but each offers moderate upside for power and speed.
Play: Logan Gilbert, Mariners bats/stacks as a mid-range option, Orioles bats/stacks in small doses, Gibson SP2 shares are fine but he is highly-priced for that role
Update Notes:
New York Mets (+107/4.66) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-116/4.94)
The Mets are facing league-average righty Taijuan Walker who is rarely completely awful but also not frequently very good. The righty has a 4.31 ERA and a 4.42 xFIP that speak to that level of talent. He has struck out 20.6% over 15 starts and 77.1 innings this year and had a 20.3% rate over 29 starts and 157.1 innings last season. Walker has allowed a bit of premium contact at 8.1% barrels with 41% hard hits but just 88.6 mph of exit velocity and a 3.12% home run rate, he has beaten his contact levels in terms of allowing home runs each of the last two years as well. Walker walks too many at 9.7% and he has a 1.28 WHIP with a low-end swinging-strike rate, he is likely to push opportunities in the direction of the Mets lineup and is a limited SP2 play for $7,700 on DraftKings. Walker does not seem like a viable option at $9,400 on the blue site. Brandon Nimmo is a lefty who will give Walker fits in the leadoff spot. Nimmo strikes out at a 22.6% clip but walks 11.3% of the time and hits the ball squarely with a 46.7% hard-hit rate for just $4,100/$3,100. Starling Marte has pulled himself together at the plate and is up to .258/.313/.331 with an 85 WRC+ and 20 stolen bases, he has a ways to go before his numbers look right and he is not hitting for any power after knocking 16 long balls last season but there is value at $3,700/$2,900. Marte strikes out just 19.3% of the time and has excellent speed and correlated scoring quality if he gets on base. Francisco Lindor has 14 home runs and a .220 ISO, but Pete Alonso greatly outpaces him with 23 home runs and a .310 ISO in fewer plate appearances. The shortstop costs $4,500/$3,300 on the back of an ongoing slump in his triple-slash, Alonso checks in at a cheap $5,100/$3,400, and both of the Mets stars are easy to afford in a match with upside for runs and power. Tommy Pham, Jeff McNeil, Daniel Vogelbach, Brett Baty, and Francisco Alvarez are all playable parts through the bottom half of the lineup. Baty and Alvarez are a pair of premium rookies, Alvarez has turned into a star catcher with 12 home runs but he has dipped somewhat over the last two weeks. Baty has four home runs and a 91 WRC+ over 191 plate appearances and will be low-owned in this spot in the lineup. The veterans are of mix-and-match quality, which also applies to players like Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar.
The Phillies are drawing the eye with a 4.94-run implied team total against righty Kodai Senga. At $10,200/$9,900, Senga is a bit pricey for the roller coaster he provides on the mound against a good team. The righty has a 3.53 ERA and 3.95 xFIP with a very sharp 28.3% strikeout rate this season, but he has walked 13.4% while allowing 7.3% barrels and a 43.8% hard-hit rate, but just 2.93% home runs. Senga has a good arsenal of pitches and knows how to find strikeouts, when he avoids walking the world he can be very good and can work deep into games. The starter is worth a few shots on the mound, particularly if he is not coming up as a popular play around the industry, but the Phillies’ bats are more appealing. Kyle Schwarber pounds the ball with authority, he has a 47.1% hard-hit rate and 15.5% barrel rate on the year with 20 home runs in the books over 323 plate appearances. Schwarber appears to be on his way to another big year after mashing 46 long balls last year, we do not care at all about his batting average, Schwarber is underpriced at $5,600/$3,800 and should be an interesting matchup against Senga. The slugger has a 28.8% strikeout rate and 16.4% walk rate, this is going to be a three-true-outcomes matchup three times over in this game. Trea Turner has seven home runs and 13 stolen bases with an 80 WRC+ that just refuses to budge. We know Turner is a star in a slump, we just continue to take the discount when it is provided. DraftKings is making Turner a pricey item at $5,800 for his current form, while FanDuel has the shortstop at a cheap $3,200. Nick Castellanos has arguably been the Phillies’ best player this season. The outfielder has created runs 26% better than average with eight home runs and a terrific contact profile over 307 plate appearances. Castellanos has a .311/.355/.474 triple-slash and costs just $4,300/$3,300 for some reason, his DraftKings price is borderline inexplicable. Bryce Harper is a star in the outfield for a fair $6,000 on DraftKings and he adds first base for just $3,500 on FanDuel, making him a flexible bargain option on the blue site. Harper has three home runs with five stolen bases and has created runs 19% better than average over 187 plate appearances. JT Realmuto costs $5,500/$3,200, he is playable on both sites as one of baseball’s best catchers with a bat in his hands. Realmuto has eight home runs and 10 stolen bases on the season while creating runs six percent ahead of the curve. Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Kody Clemens, and Brandon Marsh are a strong bottom end of the lineup. Everyone in the group of four talented young hitters has power and there is a good mix of speed for three of them. Clemens is more of a power hitter, he has four home runs in 134 plate appearances on the left side and costs just $2,300/$2,100. Stot and Marsh are above average for the season for run creation at 104 and 111 respectively, while Bohm has productive counting stats with seven home runs and two stolen bases in 256 plate appearances and a decent triple-slash with a 42.3% hard-hit rate.
Play: Mets bats/stacks, Phillies bats/stacks, Kodai Senga in minor shares as a mid-level play
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+256/3.36) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-288/5.78)
The Athletics are big underdogs in Toronto tonight. The hometown Blue Jays are a -288 favorite with a 5.78-run implied total that is pushing big projections in the direction of their hitters while starter Chris Bassitt benefits from the matchup and has Oakland checked to just a 3.36-run total. The righty has been all over the place this season with multiple disaster games interspersed between excellent runs of quality and depth. Bassitt gave up nine earned runs in 3.1 innings in his first start of the season, went on a run of eight quality starts in nine outings then hit a wall with seven earned runs in 4.0 innings. After that, Bassitt posted two quality starts of 7.2 and 8.0 innings before blowing up another ACME box with eight earned runs on three home runs in 3.0 innings against the Orioles two starts ago, an outing he followed with another 3.2-inning clunker with three earned runs, five total runs, two strikeouts and three walks against the Rangers. This is a significantly better matchup than any of the teams with which Bassitt has struggled this season and he is one of baseball’s more reliable options for depth outside of the terrible outings. At $9,200/$9,300, Bassitt is very much on the board in this start, he projects in the top group of starters and is similarly priced to more popular starters. The Oakland lineup is an option for a few shares as a contrarian play, Bassitt is likely to draw popularity around the industry in this spot, but they are not one with which to get carried away, this is still a bad baseball team. Esteury Ruiz has 39 stolen bases, if he gets on he is hunting for bonus points at $3,300 on either site. Ruiz is the most expensive Athletics player on either site, his FanDuel price is $500 more than the next-highest-priced teammate. That player is Ryan Noda, who hits second for $2,700/$2,800 at first base. Noda has been very good at getting on base and hitting for power this season, he has eight home runs in 271 plate appearances with a .387 on-base percentage that was quite a bit higher about two weeks ago. Ultimately Noda will normalize to roughly average numbers, perhaps a bit better, but he has a value from the left side of the plate at his pricing and he is a critical bat in stacks of Athletics. Seth Brown is another cheap lefty hitter with power, he also offers a bit of speed if he makes his way on base. Ramon Laureano has mid-teens power and speed output in each of the past few seasons, he has five homers and eight stolen bases in 219 opportunities this season and costs $2,400/$2,500. JJ Bleday, Jace Peterson, Shea Langeliers, Tony Kemp, and Tyler Wade round out the lineup, they are mix-and-match pieces. Langeliers continues to be a cheap low-owned catcher with oddball power, Wade is a toolsy quad-A player with multi-position eligibility at $2,300 for third base or shortstop on DraftKings or $2,000 with shortstop, second base, and the outfield on FanDuel. Bleday and Peterson have infrequent unreliable lefty power.
The Blue Jays are set to mash against James Kaprielian who has been on a runs-allowed tour around the league. Kaprielian is a popular guy because he helps hitters make more money, he has a 6.38 ERA and 5.82 xFIP while allowing a 3.13% home run rate and striking out 19.1% with an ugly 11.7% walk rate this year. The righty’s 11.3% swinging-strike rate is good and shows improvement year over year, but this is a very low-end pitcher even if he has strung together a good start or two this year. The Blue Jays lineup is the focus in this matchup, they are carrying the highest non-Coors total on the slate by a fair margin and they are loaded with talent. George Springer and Bo Bichette land in the top two spots, they have WRC+ marks of 105 and 137 this season, Springer has 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases and Bichette leads the team with 14 long balls. The duo is easily affordable at $5,100/$2,900 and $5,500/$3,200 in this spot, they should be crushingly popular with good reason, but the Coors game may draw at least a bit of the public in other directions. This is a great spot for these two hitters as well as Brandon Belt, a lefty slugger who costs just $2,500 from site so site between Bichette and superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The DraftKings slate affords outfield eligibility to Belt so that he can be utilized alongside Guerrero and not instead of him, in a generous move. Belt has four home runs and has created runs 28% better than average over 184 plate appearances. Guerrero leads the team with an 11.04 in our home run model. Matt Chapman has 10 home runs and a .203 ISO with a 128 WRC+, and Daulton Varsho has 12 home runs and a 92 WRC+, they have both been up and down this season but they are both capable of hitting the ball over the fence when they connect. Chapman has maintained an 18.9% barrel rate and 58.9% hard-hit rate this season to lead this mashing team in both categories. Whit Merrifield is a good play for correlated scoring and stolen bases, his $3,800/$3,000 pricing at second base or in the outfield has value when building stacks of Blue Jays. Danny Jansen and Kevin Kiermaier round out the lineup with playable quality, Jansen has nine home runs in just 159 plate appearances after bouncing to the injured list for a while, Kiermaier got out to a hot start but has normalized quickly.
Play: Blue Jays bats/stacks, Chris Bassitt, both are likely to be very popular options, small doses of contrarian Athletics with a focus on the few good lefties
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+124/3.76) @ Cleveland Guardians (4.33)
Another starter who has been up and down this season while pitching to a mixed bag of results and a much lower strikeout rate than normal will be on the hill in Cleveland. Righty Shane Bieber is searching for his former ace-like ability, his strikeouts have dipped from 25% last year and a fantastic 33.1% the year before to just 17.5% over 95 innings in a growing sample this season. Bieber has a 10.1% swinging-strike rate and 29.4% CSW%, both of which are down about three points from last year and even further from the season before. The righty has walked 6.3% which is still not bad but is a big jump from the 4.6% he posted last season, when he was striking out far more his 8.1% walk rate two years ago was more acceptable. Bieber has also allowed premium contact all year, his eight percent barrel rate and 46.5% hard-hit rate for the season are both well up, as is the 91.5 mph exit velocity average, Bieber has been somewhat lucky to allow just a 2.79% home run rate. Bassitt has made many more premium starts than Bieber has this season, but Bieber has a higher overall ceiling if he finds his form. For $9,400/$9,600, the righty is worth a few shots against a Brewers lineup with plenty of strikeout upside in it, but we will probably take him in smaller portions than we have at other points this season. The righty projects as one of the top options on a moderate pitching slate with a lot of similarly unreliable options, he is in play but so are the Brewers’ bats. Lefty Christian Yelich has nine home runs and 16 stolen bases this year with a 117 WRC+ and a 10.9% barrel rate with 55.7% hard hits. Yelich is a very strong leadoff option who can post individual scores and provide a good correlation with hitters who follow, including catcher William Contreras and slugger Rowdy Tellez. Contreras has created runs eight percent better than average and lands at an affordable price in the heart of the lineup. Tellez has 12 home runs and a .193 ISO with a 24.5% strikeout rate that has climbed by comparison to a better season last year. In 2022, the lefty his 35 home runs in 599 plate appearances while striking out just 20.2% of the time and walking at a 10.4% clip, this season he is at 24.5% strikeouts and 9.6% walks. Willy Adames slots in at shortstop with his typically sturdy contact profile, he has 10 home runs in 269 chances this year and spent some time on the injured list. Adames is easy to click at $4,300/$2,700 but the matchup against Bieber is not ideal for a 26.4% strikeout slugger. Jesse Winker hit his first home run of the year and is sitting at the Mendoza line, he has not been good but he has the memory of being good two years ago for just $2,600/$2,300. Owen Miller, Raimel Tapia, Luis Urias, and Joey Wiemer are all capable mix-in options from the bottom half of an inexpensive and quietly somewhat deep lineup, but the Brewers 3.76-run implied total reminds us to not get carried away on a large slate against what was once a good pitcher. Miller has a 99 WRC+ over 203 plate appearances with a good hit tool, Tapia has moderate pop and speed at the plate, and Urias is a power-hitting infielder who hit 23 home runs two years ago and 16 last year, he is the best late lineup buy at cheap prices with multi-positional flexibility late in the lineup. Wiemer has 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases in just 243 opportunities this year.
The low-end Guardians lineup faces lefty Wade Miley, a moderately effective innings-eater who has made nine starts this season. Miley has a 3.28 ERA and 5.15 xFIP that tells more of the full picture. The lefty has struck out 14.8% of opposing hitters while walking just 5.8%, he was at 17.6% and 8.8% in eight starts last year and 18.1% with a 7.2% walk rate in his last full season in 2021. Miley rarely gets completely blown up, he is always good for a couple of runs but his 3.37 ERA and 4.07 xFIP over 163 innings and 28 starts in 2021 are not far off from his talent. The lefty had one bad outing so far this season, giving up a messy seven runs to the Dodgers over five innings, otherwise, he has posted four quality starts and several other clean five-inning outings. This is not to advocate strongly for shares of Miley on the mound, he costs $7,000/$7,900 tonight which presses the upper limits of any upside he would provide, but he is not the meaty target that some may think and we are not finding much appeal in the low-projected Guardians lineup. The Guardians’ active roster is third-worst in baseball with an 88 WRC+ against lefties this season, they are all underperforming their talent. Steven Kwan serves very little purpose if he is not getting on base aggressively and pushing run creation, he is bubbling below the surface with a 97 WRC+ over 337 plate appearances this year. If Kwan is below the surface, Amed Rosario is drowning with a 77 WRC+ and may have imploded. The toolsy infielder has one home run and eight stolen bases, he was expected for at least double-digit production in both categories, which can also be said of his double-play partner Andres Gimenez who typically hits sixth. Both infielders are cheap at $3,600/$2,900 for either, they can be played as a duo or separately in Guardians stacks but neither has provided much this season. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have done all of the heavy lifting for Cleveland this year, their WRC+ marks sit at 130 and 112 over 314 and 264 plate appearances respectively. Ramirez is a star at third base, his DraftKings price is still low at $5,400, his $4,100 at third base on FanDuel is appropriate. Naylor has a sturdy contact profile with a 9.9% barrel rate and 45.3% hard hits for the season. He costs just $3,700/$3,300 and has nine home runs this year. Josh Bell is cheap at $2,600/$2,400, he should be included in Cleveland stacks but he is one of several options at first base in the projected lineup. Naylor and Bell are both eligible only at first base on both sites, Gabriel Arias and David Fry can both also be used at first base on the DraftKings slate but also fit in at outfield or catcher respectively, Arias has three-position eligibility on FanDuel. Myles Straw is a speed-and-defense outfielder with 10 stolen bases and not much else.
Play: some shares of Brewers bats/stacks for value, some Shane Bieber
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (-110/4.11) @ Chicago White Sox (+101/3.99)
The Red Sox land in Chicago as slight favorites despite the presence of Lucas Giolito on the mound for the White Sox. The righty has made 15 starts and has a 3.54 ERA with a 4.45 xFIP and a 24.5% strikeout rate which represents a minor dip in quality year over year. Giolito worked to a 25.4% strikeout rate last year and a 27.9% mark the season before while pitching to similar run numbers. The righty has an 11.7% swinging-strike rate with a 28.4% CSW% this year, he has given up a 9.9% barrel rate and 41.3% hard hits with a 3.58% home run rate and is looking like a solid but unspectacular starter who is playable at $9,600/$10,000 but is arguably a bit overpriced by comparison to similar options in better matchups. Giolito has name recognition and might draw a bit more ownership than he should warrant in this spot. He is not overmatched against the Red Sox by any means and could easily post a quality score, but his ceiling for the price seems a bit mismatched if he gains steam to mid-range popularity. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are projecting as one of our top options despite just a 4.11-run implied total. Boston’s projected lineup is showing a strong upside for run creation and mid-range power scores at good points-per-dollar numbers on both sites and they are unlikely to be popular around the industry. The Red Sox are an interesting tournament option in our model tonight. Boston’s projected lineup opens with lefty Jarren Duran, with Alex Verdugo on the bereavement list. Duran has three home runs and 11 stolen bases in 209 opportunities this year and has created runs 12% better than average. The outfielder costs just $3,600/$2,600 ahead of Justin Turner, who has blazed his way to .284/.362/.462 with a 125 WRC+ and 11 home runs, Masataka Yoshida who has a 43.2% hard-hit rate and a 10.8% strikeout rate that work very well together, and Rafael Devers who is cheap for his talent at $5,700/$3,900 at third base. Devers has 17 home runs and a .242 ISO with a 13.3% barrel rate and 52.8% hard hits but he is slashing .238/.302/.480 in an uncharacteristically low level of output. Adam Duvall has five home runs in 80 plate appearances while creating runs 74% better than average and slashing .300/.388/.643 with a 15.7% barrel rate in the tiny sample. Duvall costs $4,900/$3,100 in the outfield. Triston Casas has been catching on somewhat at first base, for the season his walk rate and contact profile are very good and he has put eight home runs on the board with a 97 WRC+. Casas needs to continue improving, but he is not the dead stick he was in the first month or so of the season. Christian Arroyo, David Hamilton, and Connor Wong round out the projected Red Sox lineup. Wong’s contact profile makes him an appealing catcher option, Arroyo is a cheap second baseman with a decent hit tool, and Hamilton is a minimum-priced shortstop.
Against righty Brayan Bello, the White Sox are carrying just a 3.99-run implied total in Vegas as home underdogs. Chicago will be taking on a young hurler with a 3.49 ERA and 3.80 xFIP over 11 starts and 59.1 innings in 2023. Bello has posted a 22.2% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate and has been very good at checking opposing power with a sustained ability to keep the ball on the ground by limiting launch angle. Bello has allowed a 2.72% home run rate on 44.9% hard hits but just a 4.6-degree launch angle. Last year that was 5.3 degrees with a 0.37% home run rate over 57.1 innings in 11 starts. The righty is cutting into the White Sox’ power metrics, the team’s top power hitters are relegated to roughly half their normal projection for home run potential in this matchup which limits the appeal of utilizing Chicago as a team stack in anything beyond a few shares. Bello costs $8,400/$8,700, he has pitched into the sixth inning or beyond while allowing three or fewer runs in each of his last three starts so we can expect depth if things are going well, there appears to be potential at his current pricing. Bello seems unlikely to crack much popularity, he will be a bit more utilized for the money as an SP2 on DraftKings, but he seems like a strong option on which to push a few additional chips on tonight’s pitching slate on both sites. Chicago’s lineup has quality from top to bottom and has Tim Anderson back, but Bello is cutting the heart out of their power and they have been flawed up and down with underperformance this season. Andrew Benintendi leads off ahead of Anderson, both players have slumped and they sit at 92 and 62 WRC+ for the season with no power or hit tool output and even limited stolen base totals. Luis Robert Jr. has 18 home runs on the season with a .270 ISO and 132 WRC+ while barreling 13.8% of his batted-ball events, his home run rate is very frequently above the magic number of 10.0 in our model, today it sits at just 5.93. Robert is the best option in a limited bunch of White Sox hitters on this slate, followed by Eloy Jimenez, another star-caliber outfielder with power. Jimenez has a 5.05 in the home run model and costs just $4,200/$3,000 with a bit of upside when going to White Sox stacks. Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Vaughn, and Jake Burger are all playable parts in a lower-end stack in this matchup. Grandal fills catcher as a capable run creator but he does not get on base at his formerly elite levels, Vaughn has a 111 WRC+ in 310 plate appearances, and Burger has mashed 16 home runs in 203 opportunities. Elvis Andrus is also in the projected lineup, he remains lousy.
Play: Brayan Bello value, Red Sox bats stacks, Lucas Giolito in small doses
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (-154/6.43) @ Colorado Rockies (+142/5.20)
Or you could just play Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani at Coors Field. The Angels are big favorites with a slate-leading 6.43 on the board in Vegas and a slate-leading ranking in our team stack projections and points-per-dollar values on both sites. The Angels will be explosively popular in this situation and it seems entirely justifiable, they are facing lefty Kyle Freeland who has a 14.9% strikeout rate and a 3.57% home run rate over 80.1 innings in 15 outings this year. Freeland is not a good option on the mound at $5,000/$6400, his eight percent barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate with all the contact that he allows plays to the strengths of a Los Angeles lineup that is littered with right-handed power. Taylor Ward is projected to lead off for $4,400/$3,500, he has nine home runs and a 91 WRC+ with a .143 ISO this season but he hit 23 home runs and created runs 37% better than average last year and was similarly up and down through the season. Ohtani costs $6,700/$5,000, Trout costs $6,500/$4,400, they are both popular and worthwhile in this spot, it is difficult to ignore the quality in this situation but there will be at best a “with the field or undercut” play in question. A full fade is not recommended. Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe have 24 combined home runs with an even dozen for each. Drury has a .224 ISO, and Renfroe has dipped to .198 amidst an overall slump but he has 72 home runs since the start of 2021, so he is just at a discount for $4,500/$3,100. Kevin Padlo, Chad Wallach, Luis Rengifo, and Andrew Velazquez round out the projected lineup, Rengifo showed life at the plate the other day and was productive all year in 2022, Wallach has a good contact profile as a low-owned catcher, and the others are mix-in options. The Angels are a spectacular option at Coors Field tonight with their ridiculous star power, this will be a major inflection point for MLB DFS through the weekend series, Trout and Ohtani have the community’s fate in their hands, whether one plays, undercuts, or fades them they will decide things.
The Rockies are carrying a total more than a run lower than their opponents while still benefitting from Coors Field. The low-end lineup ranks in the middle of our stacks board by aggregate projections, but they are likely to be far less popular than the Angels and probably less popular than the Blue Jays. Colorado offers moderate appeal against Patrick Sandoval, a capable lefty who has pitched mostly to contact this year. Sandoval has a 17.3% strikeout rate with a 4.08 ERA and 4.49 xFIP in 70.2 innings and 13 starts this year. The lefty has been good at limiting power and keeping the ball down, which should play well in this park, but his lack of strikeout upside this season is a limiting factor. Sandoval does have a 12% swinging-strike rate, that mark is down significantly from the 13.3% he posted last year and the excellent 15.2% he had two years ago but it is still a strong indicator of better upside for whiffs than he has shown to this point. On a smaller slate, there would be an argument for playing a few shares of SP2 Sandoval for $6,800, with other options on the board it seems like a stretch. Jurickson Profar, Ezequiel Tovar, and Ryan McMahon make up the top third of the Rockies’ projected lineup, one of them has been good this year. Profar and Tovar have WRC+ marks of 72 and 75 and may be melding into the same person atop the lineup. They have both scored 32 runs and have low single-digit home run totals with lousy on-base percentages, there is not much to like in the two options. McMahon has a .229 ISO with a 115 WRC+ and a dozen home runs in 307 plate appearances. The lefty is a $4,600 option at third base on DraftKings and a $3,900 second or third baseman on FanDuel. Elias Diaz has been a productive catcher all season but he costs just $4,200/$3,000 in a Coors Field game. Randal Grichuk has two home runs and a good triple-slash in 176 plate appearances and Jorge Alfaro offers big right-handed power, at least in theory. He has one home run in 24 plate appearances and was once a premium prospect. Elehuris Montero and Brenton Doyle are developing players late in the lineup and Coco Montes lands in the projected ninth spot. Montero has a 26 WRC+ in 91 plate appearances, and Doyle is at 57 but has five home runs and 10 stolen bases in 155 opportunities.
Play: bats bats bats
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+245/3.22) @ San Diego Padres (-275/5.41)
The Nationals are pushing a slate-leading projection in the direction of righty Joe Musgrove who has a 20.9% strikeout rate and 4.22 ERA with a 4.17 xFIP over 53.1 innings and 10 starts this season. Musgrove missed the first month or so of the year with a broken toe, he took a moment to ramp up to form but has now made five straight starts of effective-to-good quality, with with four of them reaching the quality start bonus. Musgrove has been up and down for strikeouts this season and the Nationals have been good with just an 18.4% strikeout rate against righties that sits second-best in baseball, but there is still quality and the potential for depth, a quality start, and a win bonus. The righty has been good at limiting power with just 5.5% barrels allowed and 29.4% hard hits and he is in his fairly pitching-friendly home park. There is a good ceiling for Musgrove for $8,800/$8,900 on this slate, but he is likely to be very popular on both sites given the price tag and matchup involved. Musgrove is an interesting option atop the board, Logan Gilbert is a reasonable pivot in a worse matchup for $100 more on FanDuel, but there is no similarly-priced option on DraftKings, which is going to push Musgrove even higher. This seems like good chalk at SP2 on that site, there are better pivot options overall on the single-starter site for those looking to undercut the field, but Musgrove should absolutely not be full-faded in 150 lineups. The Nationals do not have much appeal, anyone rostering this team would look to capitalize on contact in a low strikeout game with options like Lane Thomas, Luis Garcia, Jeimer Candelario, and Joey Meneses. Only Thomas and Candelario are above average for the year by WRC+, and only Thomas has more than eight home runs in the entire lineup. Corey Dickerson is a capable lefty veteran for a cheap price with a bit of power, Keibert Ruiz makes good contact for a cheap young catcher, and Dominic Smith, Derek Hill, and CJ Abrams bring up the bottom.
The Padres are pushing the top of our projections model and showing significant upside for home run power against lefty Patrick Corbin who has been mostly targetable for power potential for several seasons. Corbin has a 3.40% home run rate this year with 8.3% barrels allowed and a massive 46% hard-hit rate with 91.4 mph of exit velocity on average. That is simply too much premium contact to throw at the top end of the Padres’ star-studded lineup, Corbin has virtually no appeal against this team with his 14.1% strikeout rate, 4.89 ERA, and 4.55 xFIP. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases and creates runs 46% better than average while pounding the ball with a 47.5% hard-hit rate and striking out just 18.4% of the time. Tatis has a slate-leading 18.0 in our home run model tonight. Juan Soto has a 12.29 in the home run model with 13 long balls on the season and a 152 WRC+. The excellent hitter is slashing .268/.419/.490 with a .222 ISO, he walks 20.5% of the time and barrels 12.4% of his batted-ball events with a 59.1% hard-hit rate. Soto is simply one of baseball’s best hitters across the board, he belongs in Padres stacks and comes cheap on FanDuel at $5,900/$3,500. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are both very cheap on this slate as well. Machado has a 10.43 in our home run model with nine on the board this year but he sits at just 98 WRC+ and a .163 ISO with a .258/.302/.421 triple-slash. Bogaerts is at a 106 WRC+ with seven home runs and nine steals, he is very cheap for his talent at $5,100/$3,000. Gary Sanchez is our overall home run pick of the day, because why not, at 11.11. The catcher has seven long balls on the season and destroys anything he contacts with a baseball bat. Jake Cronenworth, Nelson Cruz, Ha-Seong Kim, and Trent Grisham are playable as mix-and-match options across what should be a fairly large investment in Padres stacks tonight, this is an excellent spot and one of the leading situations for offense outside of Coors Field, which will hopefully soak up popularity to leave this spot under-owned.
Play: Padres bats/stacks aggressively, Joe Musgrove despite the popularity
Update Notes:
Houston Astros (+126/3.98) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-137/4.62)
The Dodgers will have 23-year-old rookie Emmet Sheehan on the mound for the second start of his MLB career. The righty threw six no-hit innings with three strikeouts and two walks in his debut against the Giants on the 16th, and he checks in against the Astros for $6,500/$8,400. Sheehan was absolutely dominating AA before making the leap directly to the Show this year, he had a massive 41.7% strikeout rate with a 10.9% walk rate over 10 starts and 12 appearances with 53.1 total innings at that level while pitching to a 1.86 ERA and 3.20 xFIP. The righty is not going to dominate to that level in the Majors, but he has potential at his price, at least on DraftKings, against a somewhat underperforming Astros lineup, assuming he can book six innings of reasonable quality again tonight. Sheehan is in play for small shares of SP2 value on DraftKings, his price is somewhat prohibitive on FanDuel but he is not entirely off the board. The Astros lineup has several premium bats at varying levels of current-year output. Jose Altuve has a 9.12 to land second on the team in our home run model for tonight, the second baseman has three long balls and four steals in 105 plate appearances and costs just $4,900/$3,600. Altuve’s DraftKings prices is notably cheap at a premium position. Alex Bregman costs $4,500/$3,200 at third base, he is another veteran who has not produced to his previous standards this season but is now at value pricing because of it. Bregman is very much in play when rostering stacks of Astros, he has 10 home runs and a 109 WRC+ this season. Kyle Tucker has nine home runs and 14 stolen bases in 305 plate appearances with a 117 WRC+ and is also at a reduced price in this spot against a rookie hurler. Tucker has upside in a both-sided situation, some shares of Astros bats should certainly be rostered, particularly to hedge ownership in the Dodgers’ starter. Yainer Diaz is quietly having a great year in Houston, the backup backstop is slated to hit cleanup and has forced his way to everyday consideration. Diaz has seven home runs and a .244 ISO with a 117 WRC+ in 127 plate appearances while slashing .277/.291/.521 with a 15% barrel rate and 48% hard-hit rate. Diaz costs just $3,000/$2,500 at catcher in a great spot in the lineup. Jose Abreu has four home runs this year with a 63 WRC+, he is very cheap for the struggles. Jeremy Pena, Corey Julks, Jake Meyers, and Martin Maldonado round out the projected lineup at cheap prices. The group can produce counting stats but only Pena, at exactly league average, is not behind the curve for run creation this season.
The loaded Dodgers draw JP France, another rookie right-hander who has made eight starts and thrown 47.1 mostly effective innings in the Show so far. France has a 3.42 ERA and 4.45 xFIP with a 19.3% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate and, it really doesn’t seem to matter much, does it? At $7,400/$8,800 there are just better options than a mid-range young starter against one of baseball’s elite lineups. France has allowed an 8.5% barrel rate and 4.06% home run rate that should play into the strengths of Los Angeles hitters and he is walking 8.1% against a team with low strikeout rates and a good nose for getting on base. The Dodgers lineup opens with Mookie Betts who is a shortstop or outfield option on DraftKings and adds extremely valuable second base eligibility on FanDuel. Betts is a superstar who has a 10.7% barrel rate and 46% hard-hit rate this season with 17 home runs in the books while creating runs 36% better than average. Freddie Freeman has 14 home runs with 10 stolen bases while slashing .323/.403/.558 with a .235 ISO. Will Smith is a star catcher who has 10 home runs while slashing .293/.408/.500 and creating runs 50% better than average this season. Those three hitters have an average strikeout rate of just 16% and a walk rate of 12.9%, we wish France luck. Max Muncy returns to the lineup with his endless left-handed power. Muncy has made 251 plate appearances and has hit 18 home runs with a .282 ISO and a 16.4% barrel rate that sits second on the hard-hitting squad. JD Martinez has a 17.9% barrel rate that leads the team, his 16 home runs are one among several totals in the high double-digits but his .314 ISO is unrivaled in the Dodgers’ excellent lineup. Martinez costs jus t$5,000/$3,600. David Peralta, Miguel Vargas, James Outman, and Miguel Rojas are all viable options for mix-in play from late in the lineup. Peralta offers a quality left-handed veteran hit tool with moderate pop, Outman has premium power on the left side of the plate but needs to put things together overall, while Vargas and Rojas fill infield spots at opposite ends of the quality spectrum. Vargas has been good but has dipped to just a 95 WRC+ while Rojas has a 47.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, some Emmet Sheehan value particularly on DraftKings, minor shares of Astros bats
Update Notes:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+157/3.72) @ San Francisco Giants (-171/4.87)
The biggest matchup of the weekend comes in the last game of the night, with the Diamondbacks and Giants dueling in the NL West. The surprisingly good Arizona lineup will be facing top-end Giants righty Logan Webb, who is another pitcher who cuts home run potential out of a lineup by keeping launch angles to a minimum and inducing groundball after groundball. Webb has also punched out 24.5% of opposing hitters this season, up from last year’s 20.7% strikeout rate but still not as high as the 26.5% he put up two years ago. The righty has a 4.8% walk rate, he is excellent at limiting any trouble and can work his way out of it by inducing a double play or finding a strikeout. Webb is a very good pitcher in an interesting matchup that has a fair amount of standings-related value to his team. The righty costs $10,400/$10,200, he seems likely to be one of the more popular options on the slate and has the talent to pitch through Arizona’s lineup several times over, but other starters are in much better spots at better prices. Webb will be an interesting inflection point for the slate along with the Angels’ offense and Joe Musgrove, as go those three spots so goes most of the action. The Diamondbacks are a very good offense even when they are not hitting home runs. The projected starting lineup has an average on-base percentage of .336 with a .360 mark across the first six hitters in the lineup, they do not need to hit home runs to beat Webb, if they can sequence and avoid the big double plays there is a chance to create runs at low ownership. Despite those qualities, any interest in Arizona should come with a warning in the form of their 3.72-run implied total in Vegas, this is a contrarian DFS option but it is not one that should be looked at as a sure thing by a long shot. Geraldo Perdomo has found a good home atop the Snakes’ lineup, he has a .406 on-base percentage over 221 plate appearances and has created runs 38% better than average for his season. Perdomo is a former top prospect who had a terrible rookie year but has come into his own, he has five home runs and nine stolen bases this season and is a good correlated scorer. Ketel Marte has been a star this season and Corbin Carroll has been a superstar. The second baseman has 12 home runs and has created runs 34% better than average and costs $5,000/$3,900 as a good second base buy on DraftKings. Carroll has 16 home runs and 22 stolen bases with a 155 WRC+ and .279 ISO in 299 plate appearances. Christian Walker has 15 home runs on the season and strikes out at just a 16.7% clip, everyone in the top six for Arizona strikes out less than 18.7% of the time, which is where we find Carroll. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has 11 home runs on the season while creating runs 22% better than average, he is cheap at $4,200/$3,100 and has appeal when rostering Diamondbacks despite a recent downturn in his triple-slash. Emmanuel Rivera checks in for $3,000/$2,600 at third base, he is slashing .316/.340/.404 with a 101 WRC+ in 144 plate appearances. Gabriel Moreno is a good young catcher who slots in between up and down toolsy outfielders at the bottom of the lineup. Both Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy can hit for mid-range power and steal bases, but neither has fully come together at the Major League level.
The Giants’ lineup is in a better matchup than what the Diamondbacks will be facing, Arizona needs help on the back of their pitching staff so that options like Zach Davies are not on the mound in big games like this one. Davies has a 7.11 ERA and 4.78 xFIP over seven starts and 31.2 innings this season. The righty has been mediocre to bad through most of the past few years, he pitches to contact with strikeout rates around 17% and allows run totals that are in line with this season’s xFIP. Davies is not much of an option for $5,500/$6,200. The Giants have a good lineup that is probably better against righties than lefties for DFS purposes. LaMonte Wade Jr. leads off with a .415 on-base percentage and a 147 WRC+ in 272 productive plate appearances. The inexpensive first baseman is never popular enough, he costs $4,500/$3,100 and has nine home runs on the season. Thairo Estrada has nine home runs and 17 stolen bases as a high-quality middle infield option on either site. Joc Pederson, JD Davis, Michael Conforto, and Luis Matos fill out the middle of the lineup. The three veterans offer a good run of lefty-righty-lefty power with Davis as the best overall hitter and the others as more of a home run or bust approach. Matos is a defense-hit-speed rookie who has two stolen bases and a 106 WRC+ in 33 opportunities. Patrick Bailey, Brandon Crawford, and Bryce Johnson close out the lineup, Bailey has been good at catcher over 95 plate appearances with a 134 WRC+ and three home runs. The catcher is slashing .318/.344/.523 in the small sample and has good positional potential at $3,300/$2,900 with a 13.6% barrel rate and 45.5% hard-hit rate in the small sample. Crawford is a veteran with lefty power at a low price at shortstop and Johnson fills out the outfield at the minimum price and has one home run and one steal in 47 opportunities. The Giants should have a strong chance at bending the slate late in the evening with an excellent matchup against Davies.
Play: Logan Webb but maybe undercut the field if popular, Giants bats/stacks, Diamondbacks bats/stacks in small contrarian shares
Update Notes:
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