The Wednesday night slate is cut short with several day games on tap this afternoon and the sites are taking a different approach to the evening contests. The FanDuel slate gets underway at 6:40 ET with a six-game contest while the DraftKings slate skips the Angels vs Tigers game and opts for a 7:05 ET start time with five games and a more limited set of options. The board is ripe with pitching on both sites, roughly half of the available pitchers have at least reasonable arguments for ownership around the industry and all of the top options are projecting within only a few points of one another in our pitching model. There are a few lurking spots for power, including the Astros in a strong matchup for home runs and with the hope of two returning stars bolstering the lineup, and the Mets who are facing Carlos Rodon who may or may not be good right now and may or may not get booed by his home crowd tonight.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:00ET for a rundown on today’s slate:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 7/26/23
Los Angeles Angels (-106/4.32) @ Detroit Tigers (-102/4.27)
The Angels are in Detroit for the early game to face Tigers right-handed starter Michael Lorenzen in the early game that appears only on the blue site. Lorenzen ranks at the bottom of our pitching board for the day, he has a playable score and costs $8,800 but expectations should be generally kept low with the pitcher. Lorenzen has a good 3.49 ERA but a more revealing 4.31 xFIP in 100.2 innings and 17 starts this season. The righty has a 19.1% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate and 1.09 WHIP, he has not been bad but his ceiling seems to be around a league-average starter. Lorenzen has allowed a 2.76% home run rate on 7.8% barrels and 39.1% hard hits, he is not lousy for power this season and was good in each of the past two years in smaller samples. It would not be stunning to see Lorenzen post a useful start on this slate but he is not very cheap by comparison to the more desirable pitchers and he ranks as one of the least likely options. Los Angeles has several very good power bats in their lineup and they can throw a few capable lefties at Lorenzen tonight. The projected lineup opens with Zach Neto who is slashing .252/.328/.432 with a 109 WRC+ in his 233 opportunities this season. Neto has been less effective in the leadoff role than he was in 138 plate appearances hitting ninth. Over a limited sample of 74 plate appearances atop the lineup the rookie is slashing .206/.270/.309 with a 60 WRC+, at the bottom of the lineup he is a .306/.372/.554 hitter with a .248 ISO and 152 WRC+ in his 138 opportunities. That ability does not disappear at the top of the lineup, Neto has a highly regarded bat and has hit eight home runs with five stolen bases, he is a good option for $2,900 at shortstop. Shohei Ohtani really should not need an introduction at this point, he has a 19.1% barrel rate and 52.2% hard-hit rate with 36 home runs and 12 stolen bases on the board while creating runs 83% better than average in a monster season. Mickey Moniak is a lefty having a strong year at the plate, over his 182 opportunities the outfielder has a .333/.363/.615 triple-slash with a .282 ISO and 11 home runs and he has created runs 66% better than average in the small sample. Moniak is a former first-overall pick hitting his stride in his first full opportunity in the Show, he has been very good and may sustain quality production in the long term, he is worthwhile at $3,500. Taylor Ward has 12 home runs and a .251/.333/.406 triple-slash with a 104 WRC+ and is on the upswing of his roller coaster track. Mike Moustakas has left-handed power, he has hit nine home runs and has a .189 ISO in his 216 opportunities in a bit of a return to form. Matt Thaiss has left-handed power behind the plate, he is a $2,500 option with a position that is not required but his power is playable. Hunter Renfroe has been stuck at 15 home runs for a while but is always worth a few shares when rostering stacks of Angels. Trey Cabbage and Luis Rengifo are playable parts to round out the projected Los Angeles lineup.
The Tigers are facing Patrick Sandoval, a lefty who projects in the top three of our pitching board in a high-quality matchup. Detroit’s active roster has a collective 94 WRC+ with a 21.5% strikeout rate and .163 ISO in the split against left-handed pitching and Sandoval has the upside of a 1-in-4 strikeout pitcher. The lefty has seen a dip in his strikeout rate over the past two seasons, in 2021 he was at 25.9% in 87 innings and 14 starts, last season he posted a still good 23.7% rate over 148.2 innings in a more complete season of 27 starts but this year has dipped all the way to 18.7% in his 93 innings and 17 outings. Sandoval has a 4.16 ERA and 4.41 xFIP with an ugly 1.41 WHIP that is pushed up by his typically high walk rate. The lefty is a pitcher who has always gotten away with too many free passes, in 2022 he walked 9.4% but had a 2.91 ERA and 3.67 xFIP in the full season, and he had a 9.9% walk rate with a 3.62 ERA and 3.79 xFIP in 2021. Looking into the lack of strikeouts is a bit of a puzzle, Sandoval’s CSW% is 29.2, the exact same mark he put up last year. His swinging-strike rate has dipped from 13.3% to 12.4% and he has lost three percentage points of whiff rate on both his slider and changeup with the breaking ball losing both a bit of spin and movement per Statcast. Sandoval has a good shot to regain some of his strikeout form and find some clean innings in the matchup against the Tigers, the team’s best hitters are primarily left-handed or do better against righties. At $8,100, Sandoval is a very good option on the FanDuel slate, but the Tigers can be rostered against him on a day that is short on options as well. Detroit’s projected lineup opens with Matt Vierling who has a 105 WRC+ with seven home runs and five stolen bases in a productive 297 plate appearances. Vierling would be more of a mix-in player on many teams, he is slashing .268/.330/.397 and has a .129 ISO with a 4.6% barrel rate, on the Tigers that output makes him one of the priority bats. Spencer Torkelson has 15 home runs and a league-average 100 WRC+ with a .182 ISO in a good step forward. The first baseman has a ways to go to justify his draft price tag, but his 12.5% barrel rate and 49.5% hard-hit rate are encouraging and he has been good with just 23.9% strikeouts and a 9.4% walk rate supporting his .232/.308/.414. Torkelson is a priority bat when stacking Tigers, he costs just $2,900 at first base and is easy to include in any build. Riley Greene has been the team’s best hitter when healthy, the lefty is slashing .315/.379/.469 with a 139 WRC+ in 280 opportunities and .328/.369/.410 with a 120 WRC+ in 65 opportunities against same-handed pitching, though he does strike out more than 33% of the time in the split. Andy Ibanez has a .236/.270/.414 triple-slash with an 86 WRC+ overall but he has a 96 WRC+ with a .246 ISO and three home runs in 67 plate appearances against lefties this season and he is a .280/.308/.455 hitter with a 108 WRC+ and .175 ISO with six home runs in 208 career plate appearances in the split. Javier Baez has seven home runs in 396 plate appearances this season, which is roughly 3.14 million dollars per home run so far, at least he is close to replicating Pi. Eric Haase has three home runs but when combined with Miguel Cabrera they have four total. The duo has been mostly inept at the bottom of the lineup, though Cabrera has pulled himself up to an 87 WRC+ in his 206 plate appearances overall and a 132 WRC+ in his 59 plate appearances against lefties this season. Jake Rogers and Zack Short round out the lineup with another pair of middling right-handed bats. Rogers has 12 home runs with a .233 ISO as a power threat late in the lineup, seven of the 12 have come against lefties.
Play: Patrick Sandoval, Angels bats/stacks, minor shares of Tigers bats/stacks
Update Notes: This game has been postponed
New York Mets (+135/3.90) @ New York Yankees (-147/4.70)
The Subway Series has the Yankees favored in the Bronx today but we are seeing some strong projections in the Mets lineup with potential for power in the hitter-friendly environment in a matchup with Carlos Rodon who has struggled to find his form. The 3.90-run implied total at which the Mets land in Vegas is a bit surprising, the team has several premium power bats and a good top-to-bottom lineup in the mix against a pitcher who has not been good on the mound in three starts after missing the entire first half. Rodon worked 5.1 innings against the Cubs in his return, allowing two runs on a home run and four total hits while striking out only two and walking two. His second start was forgivable, he gave up four runs on four hits and lasted 5.0 innings while striking out six and walking two in a game at Coors Field, but his most recent start against the Angels was a mess. Rodon worked just 4.1 innings, he allowed six earned runs on four hits, including two home runs, and he walked a whopping five while striking out only three. Rodon’s issues with efficiency are not going to be a good mix with his manager’s quick hook in the fifth and sixth inning, and he has been coughing up too much premium contact and home run power so far. The lefty is an ace when healthy, he can dominate on the mound and had a 33.4% strikeout rate over 178 innings in 31 starts last year before signing with the Yankees. Rodon is on the board for $9,000/$7,600, the FanDuel price is notably low, but his performance has been off by enough to justify the discount. Rodon has a 16.9% strikeout rate with a 23% CSW% and has coughed up 11.1% barrels and 42.2% hard hits with a 91.8 mph exit velocity average and a 6.15% home run rate in his 14.2 innings and three starts. The dip in Rodon’s CSW% is a far wider gap than the simple drop from 14.1% swinging strikes last year to 12.7% so far this season, he simply has not been throwing strikes on the mound. The Mets have plenty of hitters who can capitalize on the opportunity if Rodon does not find it early tonight, Brandon Nimmo has a very strong hit tool and good on-base skills, he is slashing .262/.359/.446 and walking 11.3% of the time while mashing 15 home runs and creating runs 27% better than average. Tommy Pham slots in second if he returns to the lineup, the veteran outfielder has a solid statistical line in a good return for form in 2023, he has nine home runs and 11 stolen bases and has drawn an 11.6% walk rate while getting on at a .355 clip, Nimmo and Pham will have a chance to drive Rodon nuts from the top of the lineup. Francisco Lindor has 19 home runs and 17 stolen bases while creating runs 13% better than average and he costs $4,800/$3,400 at shortstop tonight. Pete Alonso mashed two long balls in yesterday’s contest as our highest-rated home run option, he returns to the board with a 14.23 in the home run model to take the second spot on the overall list behind a hopefully returning Yordan Alvarez. Alonso has 28 home runs and hopefully is coming out of a long slumber at the plate after last night’s outburst. Francisco Alvarez has 19 home runs and still costs just $3,800 where catchers are required but he may not play tonight after taking a pitch off of his hand and coming out of last night’s game. Backup Omar Narvaez is a good option for cheap catcher power if Alvarez does not play. Mark Vientos is in the projected lineup against the lefty, the rookie has a 58 WRC+ with one home run in his limited sample of 60 plate appearances in the show this season, and he is a high-end prospect with a power bat on the right day. Mark Canha and Danny Mendick join rookie Brett Baty at the bottom of the lineup, Canha and Baty are playable options who hit the ball hard, but Mendick is a mix-in defender at best.
The Yankees are favored and have a 4.70-run implied team total against southpaw Jose Quintana who is making his second start of the season after returning from injury. Quintana was good last year, he had a 2.93 ERA and a 3.72 xFIP with a 20.2% strikeout rate over 32 starts and 165.2 innings. The lefty has been effective throughout his career as well, he had a 28.6% strikeout rate but ugly stats otherwise in 63 innings and 10 starts in 2021 but is inconsistent and deals with injuries frequently. A healthy Quintana is projecting fairly well in our pitching model, he ranks in the middle of the board on a short slate and he costs just $5,700/$7,200 against the scuffling and thoroughly mediocre Yankees. Quintana faced 20 hitters over five innings, allowing six hits and two earned runs while striking out just three against the White Sox in his first game of the season last week, he has an upside to six innings with bonuses and a handful of strikeouts for cheap prices on both sites. The Yankees can be rostered against the lefty in a both-sided situation. Oswald Peraza is still cheap leading off, he costs $3,000 at second or third base on DraftKings and adds shortstop to that mix for $2,300 on FanDuel. Peraza is a highly regarded infield prospect for the organization, he has four stolen bases with a 73 WRC+ in 61 plate appearances in the Show but had 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases with a .234 ISO and 108 WRC+ in 216 plate appearances in AAA this season and posted a 20/35 season across AAA and MLB opportunities in 2022. Gleyber Torres may lose his job to Peraza some day soon, the second baseman has been OK this season with 16 home runs and eight stolen bases and a 113 WRC+ that leads this team. Torres costs $4,900/$3,000 in a highly affordable Yankees lineup. Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo are also both priced at $3,000 on the blue site, giving the team an easily selected power core, on DraftKings $5,000 gets you Stanton in the outfield and another $4,000 buys Rizzo at first base, both players are good bats at discounted prices regardless of current-year output. DJ LeMahieu has been bad this season, he is slashing .232/.301/.373 with an 86 WRC+ and his strikeout rate has gone way up year over year. LeMahieu has been mostly lost but he does offer multi-position eligibility for $3,200/$2,500. Harrison Bader and Anthony Volpe are erratic contributors who have good ceilings for counting stats but are difficult to nail down and below average for run creation. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kyle Higashioka round out the lineup, Kiner-Falefa is a low-end bat with triple-position eligibility on FanDuel but is only an outfielder on DraftKings. Higashioka is the preferred Yankees catcher when it comes to DFS hitting.
Play: Mets bats/stacks, Carlos Rodon value, Jose Quintana value darts, Yankees bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Atlanta Braves (-165/5.69) @ Boston Red Sox (+151/4.43)
The Braves are slated to face new father Brayan Bello who should be making his return from the paternity list and a trip home to the Dominican Republic in tonight’s game. Bello checks in for $9,100/$9,200 and returns to a terrible matchup against baseball’s best offense. Atlanta is once again carrying far and away the highest implied team total on the board at 5.69 runs. Only one other team on tonight’s slate, the Giants, are above a 5.0, they sit at 5.15 against a low-end Oakland starter. Every other team on the slate is carrying an implied run total below 4.70 tonight, the Braves are a standout option once again and Bello is a challenging option with a low projection at a high price. The righty has been effective this season, he has a 3.60 ERA and 4.01 xFIP with a 20.5% strikeout rate but has allowed an eight percent barrel rate with 41.6% hard hits and a 3.42% home run rate. Most of those are mistake pitches, overall Bello has a 6.2-degree launch angle average, which is very good for keeping the ball in the yard, but when he slips the ball tends to travel, which is all Atlanta needs to ruin the starter’s day. The Braves lineup is projected to be in its everyday form, Ronald Acuna Jr. rolls on as baseball’s best leadoff hitter and probably best overall player who doesn’t also pitch, he has a .328/.407/.571 triple-slash with 23 home runs and 48 stolen bases and has created runs 61% better than average. The average WRC+ for the projected Braves lineup is 122, meaning that on average they are 22% better than average at creating runs, so if the roughly average Mariners played their games with 11 hitters instead of nine they would be the Braves. Ozzie Albies is a big contributor to that cause at second base, he has a 113 WRC+ and 23 home runs this season, Austin Riley has 22 long balls with a .216 ISO and 115 WRC+, Matt Olson is a top option at first base for a high price, he has 32 home runs to lead the team, and Sean Murphy is a killer catcher option who has 17 home runs while slashing .285/.379/.550 in 301 opportunities. Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario have barrel rates of 14% and 10.5% with 18 and 15 home runs respectively, though Ozuna has slipped below the waterline at 96 WRC+ for the season, Rosario has been the better of the two at 101 and they are both cheap easy options with major power potential on any given slate. Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II are excellent options late in the lineup who should not be left out of Atlanta plans, they have a 113 and 106 WRC+ respectively with power and speed for MLB DFS contributions.
The Red Sox are a lower-end option in a matchup against elite Spencer Strider but they have a 4.43-run implied total on the board in Vegas, which is one of the higher marks in recent memory against the starter. Strider has seemingly been more vulnerable this season, he has a 3.78 ERA but that is somewhat deceptive with bad luck and a few unfortunate situations in which he pitched well and was mismanaged can also be blamed, including in last week’s start. Strider’s 2.68 xFIP is almost an exact match with last season’s 2.67 ERA and it is not all that off from the 2.30 xFIP he posted last season. The righty has an outrageous 39.7% strikeout rate with a 19.8% swinging-strike rate and 34.5% CSW% he can dominate any club in the sport and has a massive ceiling even in this matchup. Strider is justifiably expensive at $12,700/$11,200, he has easily the most visible path to a dominant fantasy score on the mound tonight and lands at the top of our pitching board, but things are far closer than they typically land with this starter. There is not much daylight at all between the projected fantasy point output for Strider at the top and Rodon five spots down the pitching board today. The Red Sox are in business as a contrarian option on this slate as well. Strider has allowed a 3.36% home run rate on 9.8% barrels, when he has made mistakes they have been hit fairly well this season and Boston’s lineup is filled with professional hitters who can wait out mistakes. Jarren Duran has been terrific in the leadoff role for Boston, he costs just $4,000/$3,300 with a 136 WRC+ overall and has been on base at better than a .400 clip as a leadoff hitter to set the table for Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida, and Rafael Devers. The trio is an excellent group of hitters, Turner is slashing .286/.358/.478 with a 126 WRC+ and 16 home runs, Yoshida is at .320/.382/.506 with a .186 ISO and a 142 WRC+ that leads the team, and Devers has mashed his way to 24 home runs and a 127 WRC+ with a .256 ISO while managing to remain affordable on DraftKings at just $5,000, the star third baseman is a $3,900 option on the blue site where it is fair to say his price is at least off by a few hundred as well. Adam Duvall costs $4,200/$3,100 in the outfield, he has a 12.8% barrel rate with seven home runs in 158 plate appearances and a .252 ISO for the cheap price. Alex Verdugo has a strong hit tool with a bit of individual pop from later in the lineup ahead of Triston Casas who can mash from the left side and costs merely $2,900/$3,000 at first base. Verdugo and Casas are a very good late-lineup duo, the outfielder has a .348 on-base percentage and Casas is at .352 with a team-leading 14.1% walk rate to go with his 14 home runs. Connor Wong has an 8.8% barrel rate with six home runs in 255 plate appearances as a cheap catcher and Yu Chang is a good mix-in option with five homers and three steals in his 85 chances this season.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Spencer Strider, Red Sox bats/stacks as a contrarian position
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (-106/4.57) @ Chicago White Sox (-102/4.52)
note: there is a bit of weather in the area but the experts seem unconcerned about the game playing.
The Cubs and White Sox pick up their series on the South Side with a matchup between veteran righties Marcus Stroman and Lance Lynn, with the teams at basically a pick’em in Vegas. Lynn is on the mound for the home squad, the popular trade target may be making his final Chicago start, he could be showcased or protected but we have no way of knowing and it does not pay to guess. Lynn has a 27.3% strikeout rate over 115 innings in 20 starts, he is typically reliable for both depth and a good point total from strikeouts, but he has had issues with earned runs and power this season. The righty has a 6.18 ERA with a much better 3.95 xFIP under the surface but it is difficult to say he has pitched well, given an 11.1% barrel rate with a 5.49% home run rate this season. Lynn has been all over the map in 2023, he has major potential in any start and is always good for strikeouts, he has a 14% swinging-strike rate on the year but gives up too many opportunities with a 1.44 WHIP and has more than doubled his walk rate from 3.7% last season to 8.4% this year. Lynn is a better option as an SP2 for $7,700 on DraftKings than he is for $9,400 on the single-starter site, but he is in play on both and projects in the middle of a tight pitching board. Stroman is a higher-ranked option on the other side of the game, despite a lower strikeout rate both this season and for his career. The righty has pitched well in 2023, his 122.1 innings in 21 starts rank 17th in the league for depth and he is tied for the league lead with 15 quality starts. Stroman has a 3.09 ERA and 3.76 xFIP with a 21.1% strikeout rate, he needs the depth to provide a ceiling score but he has a clear path to success with a competitive projection on tonight’s slate and is a good buy at $9,400/$9,600.
The Cubs lineup is the preferred side of the coin in the hitting matchup, Chicago has a chance to exploit Lynn’s issues with walks and power and they rank fifth by collective projection on our stacks board while landing sixth for home run potential. The White Sox drop to eighth with an eighth-ranked home run mark on the stacks tool, they are also in play in the matchup against Stroman. The projected Cubs lineup opens with Mike Tauchman who has been a popular choice for $3,400/$3,000 in the outfield. Tauchman is a quad-A player with a .250/.354/.375 triple-slash, a 104 WRC+, and four home runs in 199 plate appearances this season. The 32-year-old has one other season in which he made 200 or more plate appearances, his 2019 campaign as a part-time player with the Yankees saw him hit 13 home runs in just 296 opportunities in a big outburst, he has not come close to replicating that output in limited chances since. In 119 plate appearances as the team’s leadoff hitter this season, Tauchman has a .190 ISO with a 118 WRC+ while slashing .267/.345/.457, he has been earning his popularity but is unlikely to continue in the long term. Nico Hoerner has a .277/.330/.395 triple-slash with a 99 WRC+ and 24 stolen bases ahead of the team’s primary bats. Hoerner is a bolt-on option for $4,700/$3,500, those are somewhat high prices for his overall production and ceiling as a correlated scoring and speed option. Ian Happ has power potential at the plate but he has delivered just a .137 ISO and eight home runs so far in 2023. Happ has gotten on base at a .370 clip and has created runs 11% better than average and costs just $3,300/$3,000 however, which should keep him in play on this slate. Cody Bellinger is today’s overall home run pick with a 6.66 in the home run model, he has 14 on the season while slashing .314/.363/.540 with a .226 ISO and 140 WRC+ over 292 plate appearances and is another major trade target in this game. Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, and Christopher Morel have major power and run creation potential with good on-base skills through the 5-7 spots in the lineup, they are valuable contributors who should not be skipped at cheap prices. Swanson has underperformed overall this year but had a big day yesterday to pull himself to 12 home runs and a 119 WRC+ for the season. The shortstop hit 25 home runs and stole 18 bases last year and was a 27/9 player the year before, he has tons of power as a cheap option at his position. Miles Mastrobuoni and Tucker Barnhart close out the lineup as mix-in options. On the White Sox side, Andrew Benintendi and Tim Anderson open the lineup with low-end home run marks. Benintendi has two on the season and Anderson adds zero to the tally for a total of two, though his WRC+ has climbed to 56 in the last few days. Either player is playable in stacks of White Sox and they are cheap options overall on this slate, Anderson has value despite his terrible performance this season, for $3,700/$2,600 he is even a viable one-off at his position. Luis Robert Jr. has an 8.90 in our home run model and has hit 28 on the season to lead the team, Eloy Jimenez has 13 long balls and a .199 ISO and costs just $3,900/$3,100 in the outfield, and Yoan Moncada returned to the lineup in style last night and is a good click at third base for just $3,600/$2,300. Andrew Vaughn has been a contributor all season, he has a dozen home runs and a 103 WRC+ and is slated to hit sixth at a fair price ahead of Yasmani Grandal and masher Jake Burger, who are playable parts late in the lineup. Oscar Colas offers the notion of left-handed prospect power for just $2,000/$2,200 in the outfield but he has not been good in his 131 plate appearances in the Show as a rookie this year.
Play: Marcus Stroman, Cubs bats/stacks, Lance Lynn, White Sox bats/stacks in smaller portions
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (+155/3.74) @ Houston Astros (-169/4.86)
The Rangers are checked to just a 3.74-run implied total by talented lefty Framber Valdez, who projects among the top options on the extremely tight pitching board. Valdez is terrific for depth of innings, he chases bonuses in virtually every start and has worked 122.1 innings in just 19 outings. The lefty has a 2.94 ERA with a 2.99 xFIP and a 26.9% strikeout rate this season and has maintained his usual ability to keep the ball in the yard with just a 1.82% home run rate on a 3.8-degree launch angle. Valdez is very good on the mound, the Rangers are still without Corey Seager but they got one of their stars back yesterday and are a threatening lineup in any form, but without their home run potential they dip to just an average squad. Valdez will have to work for it, but he is a strong option at $10,900/$10,300 on this slate. The Rangers lineup opens with Marcus Semien and Ezequiel Duran in a strong configuration in Seager’s absence. Duran has earned the promotion up the lineup with a .292/.334/.502 triple-slash and 13 home runs while creating runs 29% better than average this season, there is an argument to be made that he should lead off with Semien hitting second. The star second baseman has 14 home runs and a 117 WRC+ and gets on at a .340 clip this season but his power would play better behind Duran. Both players are strong options that should be included in stacks of Rangers aggressively. Josh Jung has 20 home runs this season, Adolis Garcia has 24, and Nathaniel Lowe adds 11 to the group total while providing a good hit tool in the fifth spot in the projected lineup. Jung climbs and Lowe drops on this side of splits, but both players are good options against pitchers of either hand. Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver both have power behind the plate, they can be mixed and matched with one another through a variety of Rangers builds, they are both high-quality catcher options in bad matchups for power on this slate. Robbie Grossman and Leody Taveras are playable late in the lineup, Taveras has been very good this year while Grossman is more a cheap bolt-on option.
The Astros are drawing slate-leading marks in the home run model – in a configuration of the lineup that includes both Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez who have been out lately – against lefty Andrew Heaney who has a significant strikeout ceiling in any given start but also has a major issue with allowing home runs. Heaney has a 4.58 ERA and 4.60 xFIP with a 24% strikeout rate and an 11.3% swinging-strike rate but he has walked 9.6% and has a 4.33% home run rate on 10.8% barrels and 90.7 mph of exit velocity. Heaney is a good pitcher with several flaws, he can be played in this spot and he projects fairly well for just $6,700/$7,900 but the play must be made with eyes open to the challenges that Heaney has on the mound, even in his good games he can get tattooed for power. The lefty had a 4.52% home run rate but a sparkling 3.10 ERA and 2.83 xFIP and a 35.5% strikeout rate in 72.2 innings last season, just as an example of his typical output. Heaney is facing an Astros lineup that will hopefully open with Altuve, who left us with a .264/.371/.479 triple-slash, six home runs, and five stolen bases with a 138 WRC+ in just 143 plate appearances this season. Altuve has an 11.98 in the home run model for $5,700/$3,600, he is a strong option at second base if he plays. Jeremy Pena has not been good this season, his 81 WRC+ is disappointing and, while his 10 home runs and nine stolen bases are not far off the pace of last season’s 22/11 output, the shortstop is slashing just .232/.288/.368 and has not taken any steps forward at the plate. Kyle Tucker has filled in admirably carrying this team for Alvarez, the lefty has 18 home runs and 19 stolen bases with a 148 WRC+ in his 425 plate appearances. Alex Bregman has helped along the way, he has 16 home runs in 449 plate appearances and saw a price correction to $5,300 after we noted yesterday that his $6,000 price tag was far out of line with his performance this season. Bregman is a useful power bat at third base, he is slated to hit ahead of Alvarez, who hopefully will return with his premium power bat on the left side. Alvarez had 17 home runs in his first 242 plate appearances and was carrying a 166 WRC+ when he was injured. Jose Abreu has been mostly lousy this season but is up to 79 WRC+, Chas McCormick has been very good this season and has a 149 WRC+ with 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases, and Yainer Diaz has also been productive with 11 homers and a 103 mark for run creation. Martin Maldonado closes things out in the projected lineup, he has eight home runs in 264 inconsistent plate appearances.
Play: Astros bats/stacks, Framber Valdez, Andrew Heaney darts
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+196/3.47) @ San Francisco Giants (-217/5.15)
The final game of the night sees the lowly Athletics in San Francisco to face opener Ryan Walker followed by southpaw Alex Wood, who is the focus pitcher in a bulk relief role. Wood has a 19.5% strikeout rate but an 11.5% walk rate with a 4.99 ERA and 5.41 xFIP this season in 57.2 innings and 11 starts. In 130.2 innings last year, Wood had a much better 23.6% strikeout rate and a 3.41 xFIP but a 5.10 ERA, he is somewhat targetable for power upside but he projects fairly well with limited innings for a cheap $6,000/$6,800 against one of baseball’s worst lineups. Oakland is largely inept against left-handed pitching, the team has a collective 79 WRC+ in the split against lefties, ranking them 29th out of 30 teams. Oakland’s strikeout rate in the split sits at 25% and they have a very limited .124 ISO, Wood has potential in this matchup and comes at a very cheap price from site to site, he is an option for value darts at worst. Oakland’s projected lineup is carrying just a 3.47-run implied total, Tony Kemp is a lousy veteran with a .294 on-base percentage and 73 WRC+ but the Athletics continue to roll him out in the leadoff spot in their lineup. Zack Gelof has a team-leading 7.88 in our home run model, he hits second in the projected lineup for $3,700/$3,200 at third base on FanDuel and second base on DraftKings. Gelof is a rookie who has made 41 plate appearances, he has a home run and three stolen bases and is expected to hit at this level in the long term. Jordan Diaz has six home runs and a 102 WRC+ in 127 plate appearances, Brent Rooker has the same 16 home runs he had about a month ago, and Ramon Laureano is back in the lineup with his low-end power and speed combination. Aledmys Diaz, JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers, and Nick Allen round out the projected lineup but the Athletics may mix in their recently promoted rookies as well. The team is a lousy option in all forms.
The Giants have the second-highest run total on the board in Vegas and one of only two over 5.0 implied runs in a matchup against lefty Hogan Harris. In the sixth start of his career, Harris has a $5,300/$6,300 price tag and looks to be in some trouble against the hard-hitting platoon-focused Giants. Harris has a 20% strikeout rate with a 6.11 ERA and 5.10 xFIP with a 9.6% walk rate and 1.38 WHIP over his first 53 innings and five starts, pitching in a bulk relief role at times. The lefty is pitching in his age 26-27 season, he is not a highly regarded prospect and he has not been good at any point in the Show so far, it is difficult to believe that there is much upside though Harris did have a high strikeout rate as a 25-year-old working from high-A to AAA in 2022. There is not much reason to go to Harris even as a dart throw on this slate, the Giants seem likely to hit him hard and they are a good value stack with their four-star zero-stars lineup offering several cheap premium options. Austin Slater is in the leadoff role but LaMonte Wade Jr. was back in that spot despite a lefty starter for last night’s game, either player is an acceptable option with good on-base skills and correlated scoring potential in the role, Slater would be preferred however, given Wade’s typical dip against same-handed pitching. Wilmer Flores has a 6.66 in the home run model and was nearly the pick for the day today, he has 13 dingers on the season to lead the projected lineup and has always mashed against lefties. Flores has a .242 ISO and 139 WRC+ for just $3,500/$3,100 on this slate, he is going to be very popular on both sites and even offers triple-position eligibility on FanDuel. Mike Yastrzemski has 11 home runs and a .204 ISO with a 100 WRC+ on the season, JD Davis has created runs 11% better than average in a good year from the right side of the plate, and Patrick Bailey has been good in 186 plate appearances despite a run creation mark that has slipped two percent behind the curve. Luis Matos slots into the outfield for just $2,700/$2,500, he is a good hit-and-speed prospect with a .259/.314/.339 triple-slash in his first 122 plate appearances. Casey Schmitt and Brett Wisely take the final two spots in the lineup as mix-in options behind rookie Marco Luciano, who costs $2,500 on FanDuel as a late addition to the slate but does not appear on DraftKings. Luciano is a 21-year-old infielder who has 11 home runs and six stolen bases in 242 plate appearances in AA with another two homers in just 27 chances at AAA before this call-up, he offers major power as a cheap and under-the-radar shortstop if he plays tonight.
Play: Giants bats/stacks, Alex Wood darts
Update Notes:
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