The huge 13-game slate follows last night’s 14-game extravaganza in a similar style with a wealth of pitching options, but a bit of a lower peak. There were five or six premium aces on last night’s slate, the same does not necessarily apply tonight, but there is a good group of starters in decent matchups atop the board and a very broad plateau of similarly projected options from the mid-range before things fall apart with a few pitchers at Coors Field or in matchups against the Braves while being Julio Teheran. The board has major spots for power and run creation, in addition to that game in Atlanta, there is a Coors game between two of baseball’s worst teams that provided some value but not a gigantic outburst of scoring last night, and a few hard-hitting teams are going up against starters who are either washed up, flawed, or plain bad. Getting to a broad spread of options both on the mound and at the plate, in a wide variety of combinations, is the recommended approach to lineup building with full stacks recommended on both sites on the huge slate.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:00 ET for a rundown on today’s slate:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 7/29/23
Philadelphia Phillies (-167/5.42) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+153/4.20)
note: there is a minor amount of rain in the area but the game seems fine
Pirates rookie Quinn Priester has been given a long leash in his first two outings, the righty has thrown 5.1 innings in each start, facing 25 Guardians and 23 Padres, he has allowed four home runs, 11 runs on 11 total hits, walked five, and struck out only six. Suffice it to say, Priester has not hit the ground running in the Show, but he does remain a high-end Pirates pitching prospect and a part of their future plans. Priester has a questionable fastball and an elite plus-plus curveball with room to grow on the mound, but he is not projecting well in a matchup against the talented Phillies lineup for MLB DFS today, even at $6,300/$6,800 his path to success is fairly thin. While it would not be stunning to see Priester provide playable value at that price, he projects in the lower third of the pool and seems unlikely to spike a ceiling score. Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies in our home run model once again with a 14.58 that is among the top marks of the day. Schwarber has 27 home runs and a .251 ISO with a 102 WRC+ in 458 plate appearances after going deep again last night. Trea Turner has an 80 WRC+ and is still expensive on DraftKings at $5,700, he is a bargain at $3,100 on FanDuel and can be deployed at shortstop on either site despite the season-long struggles. Bryce Harper has a 117 WRC+ since his return and has been effective at the plate and on the bases but has not hit for a ton of power with only five home runs in 303 plate appearances. Nick Castellanos has 14 home runs and a 107 WRC+, he strikes out at a high rate of 26.7% but he has been the team’s best overall bat all season and he remains cheap at $4,300/$3,200 in an excellent spot. Bryson Stott and JT Realmuto are strong options for production in the heart of the lineup, Stott is slashing .302/.344/.433 with a 109 WRC+ in a highly productive season, and Realmuto has 12 home runs and the same tally for stolen bases as a premium catcher option. Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, and Jake Cave round out the projected lineup, Bohm has a 102 WRC+ and Marsh has a 119 that leads the team from the bottom of the lineup. Both players have hit for average and have been involved in the offense this season, they have mid-range power and are good correlated scoring options late in the lineup for cheap prices. Cave has a home run and three stolen bases but a 61 WRC+ over his 90 plate appearances, he is more of an afterthought.
The Pirates got smoked by Zack Wheeler last night and they see no reprieve with Aaron Nola on the mound today. Nola has a 4.25 ERA but a 3.76 xFIP and a 24.8% strikeout rate over 21 starts and 133.1 innings, which are all a fair bit worse than last season’s numbers and his typical output. Nola has also allowed too much premium contact, leading to too many home runs at 4.29% for the season, he is inducing a 12% swinging-strike rate with a 30% CSW% and has a 5.6% walk rate on the positive side. Nola typically pitches deep into games and he should provide a strong chance at bonuses on both sites, he has gone six or more innings in 19 of his 21 starts this season. Nola is a fantastic option who projects very well for $11,000/$9,900, his FanDuel price is a major bargain on the slate and the best source of premium value on the mound tonight. The Pirates rank 22nd with a 97 WRC+ and they have a 24.7% strikeout rate in the split against right-handed pitching this season, there is a bit of power available in the lineup but Nola should be able to handle them if he is anywhere near peak form. The Pirates’ lineup includes several proven veterans and a bottom half filled with rookies making their first few plate appearances. Jack Suwinski has been the best hitter in Pittsburgh this season, he has 21 home runs with seven stolen bases and a 127 WRC+ on the season. Suwinski costs $3,800/$3,200 in a tough matchup but he is a viable one-off option at absurdly low prices. The slugging outfielder has an 18.8% barrel rate and 50% hard hits on the season and is carrying a 10.25 in our home run model to lead the team tonight. Bryan Reynolds has 11 home runs with a .174 ISO and 102 WRC+, Andrew McCutchen has 10 homers with a .145 ISO but a 119 WRC+ given his terrific 15.9% walk rate and .381 on-base percentage, and Ji-Man Choi has under-appreciated cheap lefty power for $2,800/$2,500 at first base. Henry Davis is the most proven of the team’s rookies with 135 plate appearances, he has four home runs and three stolen bases with a 107 WRC+ in the small sample. Endy Rodriguez is a premium catching prospect, Jared Triolo has a 68 WRC+ over his first 95 plate appearances in the Show, and Nick Gonzales has hit two home runs and has a 74 WRC+ over his 105 opportunities. The most recent call-up, Alika Williams, slots into the projected ninth spot in the batting order for $2,000 at shortstop on both sites.
Play: Aaron Nola, Phillies bats/stacks, small doses of Quinn Priester value darts are just OK
Update Notes:
Minnesota Twins (-182/5.53) @ Kansas City Royals (+166/4.09)
note: there is a lot of rain very near the area of the ballpark, keep an eye on this game weather-wise.
The Twins and Royals square off in Kansas City with Minnesota carrying one of the higher implied team totals of the day at 5.53 runs. Jordan Lyles has a 16.6% strikeout rate and a 6.19 ERA with a 5.35 xFIP over 107.2 innings in 19 starts this season, he is highly targetable with bats in the majority of his starts and has allowed a 4.80% home run rate that should play to the Twins’ strengths. Carlos Correa has a 10.18 in our home run model and a 9.9% barrel rate with a 43.6% hard-hit rate for the season. The scuffling shortstop is slashing .229/.305/.402 with a 96 WRC+ over 406 disappointing plate appearances but he has at least hit 12 home runs and has star-caliber upside. Edouard Julien has hit 10 home runs in 205 plate appearances while slashing .297/.387/.543 and creating runs 58% better than average in his rookie campaign, he costs $3,300/$3,400 at second base and is a great buy in stacks of Twins hitters. Alex Kirilloff has a .271/.360/.448 triple-slash and has created runs 27% better than average for $2,700/$3,100 with eligibility at first base on DraftKings and with outfield positioning added to that on the blue site. Kirilloff is another discounted player who is a good buy in the heart of this lineup ahead of the team’s primary power hitters. Max Kepler has 14 home runs and a .202 ISO with a 10.1% barrel rate, Byron Buxton has 17 home runs with a .222 ISO but a 93 WRC+ and a sub-Mendoza average for the season, and Jorge Polanco is a good option for $4,400/$3,000 but he occupies the same position as Julien on DraftKings, creating a decision point between the rookie and the powerhouse veteran. Polanco has five home runs and a .202 ISO in his 132 plate appearances this season and is cheap for his talent. Matt Wallner has rocked four early home runs, he has a .250 ISO and 155 WRC+ over his first 67 plate appearances this year and hit another two home runs in 65 opportunities in a cup of coffee in 2022. Christian Vazquez is a cheap catcher and Joey Gallo has premium power potential in the ninth spot on a daily basis. Gallo has 17 home runs and a .271 ISO over his 266 opportunities this year, he mashes when he makes contact but also strikes out at a 42.5% clip.
The Royals posted some late-game fireworks to win 8-5 with a four-run bottom of the 10th inning last night on a walk-off grand slam by Bobby Witt Jr. off of Twins closer Johan Duran. Kansas City managed three runs with a home run and five total hits while striking out five times over five innings against starter Sonny Gray yesterday, today they draw capable righty Bailey Ober who has been pitching well on the surface this season. Ober has made 16 starts and thrown 94.2 innings, he has a 24.5% strikeout rate and has walked an excellent 4.9% of opposing hitters with a sparkling 0.97 WHIP. The tall righty has a 2.76 ERA but a 4.32 xFIP that is the more honest representation of his pitching. Ober has allowed a 3.00% home run rate on just 33.3% hard hits but 9.4% barrels to this point, he has a 12.9% swinging-strike rate that combines very nicely with his low walk rate, though his CSW% sits at just 26.9%. Ober is a big ticket item at $10,300/$10,200 against the low-end Royals lineup, he has a significant ceiling and is carrying a top-three projection on our pitching board. The hope would be that Ober slips a bit with the public not ready to pay full freight for the non-name-brand starter. Kansas City’s lineup has a few playable parts as usual, with Maikel Garcia providing a capable hit tool and speed in the leadoff role. Garcia has a .273/.323/.386 triple-slash with 14 stolen bases. Witt follows in the second spot, last night’s heroics have him up to a 99 WRC+ for the season and he has been excellent for counting stats throughout with 17 home runs and 29 stolen bases. For just $5,100/$3,100, Witt is a bargain buy at shortstop on both sites. MJ Melendez hits everything hard but sees limited results, the lefty is in play in Royals stacks. Sal Perez has hit 17 home runs to tie Witt for the team lead, he has a .187 ISO but has slipped to a 90 WRC+ over 382 plate appearances. Michael Massey has a 9.1% barrel rate and 42% hard-hit rate over 263 plate appearances for just $2,300/$2,500 at second base as a cheap left-handed option. Kyle Isbel had a good night on Friday but has been limited to just four home runs with four stolen bases and a 64 WRC+ in his 177 plate appearances. Isbel hit five home runs and stole nine bases in 278 opportunities last year, he is a low-end value play on most nights. Drew Waters, Matt Duffy, and Nicky Lopez round out the Royals lineup as mix-and-match options, they are carrying WRC+ marks of 74, 81, and 73 on the season. Of the three, Duffy is probably the most playable, despite the other two hitting from the left side in this matchup. Duffy slots in at first or second base for the minimum on DraftKings and adds third base to the equation for $2,100 on FanDuel, he is slashing .264/.318/.339 over 132 opportunities this year and went .287/.357/.381 with a 102 WRC+, five home runs, and eight stolen bases in 322 tries in 2021.
Play: Twins bats/stacks, Bailey Ober, minor shares of Royals value stacks
Update Notes:
Cleveland Guardians (-129/5.08) @ Chicago White Sox (+119/4.52)
Righty Mike Clevinger will be making his first start since mid-June tonight, he should not be expected to throw more than 75 pitches and has no appeal at $7,000/$7,500 for MLB DFS purposes. Clevinger has a 19.3% strikeout rate with a 3.88 ERA but a 5.49 xFIP and a 9.5% walk rate and simply won’t work deep enough into the game against a low-strikeout Guardians lineup that has a 5.08-run implied total in Vegas. Cleveland has been playing better of late, leadoff man Steven Kwan has a 101 WRC+ with a .271/.344/.374 triple-slash and 15 stolen bases on the season, he is a $4,200/$3,100 option in the outfield to start a quality stack of Guardians hitters. Andres Gimenez is in a better spot in the lineup after some roster shakeup, the second baseman costs $4,000/$3,000 which is a nice discount for his raw talent, he has nine home runs and 17 stolen bases with a 92 WRC+ on the season. Jose Ramirez has a team-leading 11.01 in our home run model with Josh Naylor behind him at 8.97, Ramirez has 16 long balls on the season to Naylor’s 15, but the outfielder outpaces the third baseman when it comes to his run creation mark, 131 to 127. Both players are essential in most stacks of Guardians bats. Josh Bell has a 9.7% barrel rate and 42.4% hard-hit rate this season, he costs $3,000/$2,800 at first base but plays the same position as Naylor. Using the first baseman in a rotation between various builds is a good way to gain differentiation on what will probably be a somewhat popular lineup. Will Brennan has a $2,500/$2,600 sticker price in the outfield, he has five home runs while slashing .262/.299/.376, amounting to an 85 WRC+ on the season. Gabriel Arias is expected to hit for power at this level, he slots into multiple positions on both sites for $2,100/$2,400 and has four home runs in 173 plate appearances but is below the Mendoza line and has a reputation for being unreliable for contact. Bo Naylor has four cheap catcher home runs in 83 plate appearances and Myles Straw closes out the lineup as a mostly defense option.
Chicago will be facing high-end rookie Logan Allen, a lefty who has pitched to a 3.39 ERA and 3.95 xFIP over 14 starts and 74.1 innings in the Show this season. Allen had a few short starts in a row but he worked a full seven innings and faced 29 hitters in his most recent start, a five strikeout sloppy performance in which he allowed two home runs and seven hits with four earned runs against the Royals. Overall, Allen is a good starter who has premium potential on the right night, he has a 23.7% strikeout rate with an 11.5% swinging-strike rate and has allowed just 2.49% home runs on the season while landing at just $9,000/$9,100 as an easily playable mid-board option on both sites. The White Sox typical lineup opens with underperforming Andrew Benintendi and Tim Anderson who has WRC+ marks of 100 and 55 on the season. Benintendi has been the better of the two, either can be rostered and they should be included in stacks of White Sox for their correlated scoring potential and long track records, but Anderson’s extended slump is a big concern when clicking his name. The former star shortstop has a .239/.282/.279 triple-slash with a .040 ISO and zero home runs this season. Luis Robert Jr. has 29 home runs after going deep early in last night’s contest. Robert has been the team’s star all season, he has created runs 36% better than average and adds 11 stolen bases to his fantasy scoring tally. Eloy Jimenez costs just $4,200/$3,300 despite a 50.2% hard-hit rate and 13 home runs in just 293 plate appearances. Jimenez is slashing .285/.328/.478 and has created runs 20% better than average when healthy this season. Yoan Moncada costs just $3,700/$2,400 as a value bat at third base, he has a 70 WRC+ in limited opportunities this season. Andrew Vaughn has a 5.54 in our home run model with 12 in the books over 401 plate appearances this season, the first baseman is cheap on both sites at $3,600/$2,900. Yasmani Grandal, Jake Burger, and Zach Remillard round out the projected lineup as playable parts, Burger has the most appeal but his 25 home runs and .318 ISO with a 19.9% barrel rate and 50.8% hard hits are a huge surprise, Burger adds second base eligibility to his third base positioning on DraftKings, he is an excellent buy with that positioning.
Play: Guardians bats/stacks, Logan Allen as a mid-level option, White Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+153/4.20) @ New York Mets (-167/5.42)
note: it is currently hot and sunny in the New York area with a storm expected to pass through prior to the game, this should be all systems go.
The Nationals and Mets face off in Queens in good hitting conditions with New York checking in as strong favorites and showing some upside for power and fantasy scoring against veteran southpaw Patrick Corbin. The Nationals will be facing veteran righty Carlos Carrasco in a matchup of pitchers who rank just over the line into the bottom half of the board by projection but do not look like major priorities for value at $6,900/$7,600 for Corbin and $6,400/$6,700 for Carrasco. Despite facing a fairly lousy Nationals lineup, Carrasco is difficult to trust, he has been a mess in his two most recent outings and has been average at best in his good spots this season, he also missed time with an injury and sits at a 5.82 ERA and 5.00 xFIP over 68 innings in 14 starts. The righty has a 16.3% strikeout rate and has walked 10.1% while allowing a 4.25% home run rate and 10.5% barrels, even the Nationals should be able to exploit that lack of productivity from the starter. Corbin, meanwhile, has made 21 starts and thrown 120.1 innings with a 5.01 ERA and 4.49 xFIP, and a 15.8% strikeout rate. The southpaw has allowed a 3.54% home run rate and 45.2% hard hits on 91.1 mph of exit velocity on average, he has not been good and is in a difficult matchup for too high a price, both pitchers are targets for bats tonight.
The Mets are easily favored, but the Nationals are potentially in play as well. CJ Abrams has been very good in the leadoff role for Washington, he has a 13.9% strikeout rate with a 145 WRC+ and a .333/.390/.522 triple-slash with a .188 ISO in the leadoff role this season and comes cheap at shortstop for $3,900/$2,900. Lane Thomas has blasted 16 home runs and has 12 stolen bases with a 117 WRC+ as the team’s best overall player for $4,800/$3,500 in the outfield. Jeimer Candelario is a switch-hitter with power at third base, he costs $4,100/$3,000 despite 16 home runs and a team-leading 118 WRC+ over 410 plate appearances. Joey Meneses has a .280/.322/.399 triple-slash and a 95 WRC+ over 413 opportunities and Keibert Ruiz is a high-end catcher for $4,000/$2,700, he has 11 home runs on the season and more power to come. Corey Dickerson, Luis Garcia, Dominic Smith, and Alex Call round out the lineup as mix-and-match plays, none of them is close to the league average for run creation this season. The Mets side takes the day-to-day shape in the projected lineup with premium leadoff man Brandon Nimmo hitting from the left side and filling an outfield spot. Nimmo has created runs 23% better than average while doing everything right for this scuffling team this season. Francisco Lindor has 19 home runs on the season and Pete Alonso is up to 30 with a .294 ISO after pulling himself out of a deep slump. The two power hitters are musts in most stacks of Mets bats, they are both still discounted on DraftKings at just $4,800/$3,800 and $4,900/$3,900 respectively. Lindor lands at a 12.0 in the home run model and Alonso is one of the day’s most likely mashers at 18.46. Tommy Pham has nine home runs and 11 stolen bases and makes sense in the fifth spot in the lineup, he has created runs 24% better than average and will have Jeff McNeil’s slap-hitting and underperforming bat behind him in the lineup. Mark Canha and Mark Vientos are better options than McNeil, they both have the pop to drive the ball for bigger batted-ball events than their teammate, though McNeil can be a fine correlated scoring option on the right night. Brett Baty is easy to play with a cheap price tag and Francisco Alvarez is a very good buy for $3,800/$3,100 at catcher, even if he does hit ninth. The rookie backstop has 19 home runs and a .260 ISO on the season, he is not a consistent producer but when the numbers come they tend to be large.
Play: Mets bats/stacks, Nationals bats/stacks as a lower-end option
Update Notes:
New York Yankees (+105/4.44) @ Baltimore Orioles (-114/4.66)
note: it is hot and humid in Baltimore once again, there may be rain in the area but they waited out a two-plus hour delay last night and seem likely to play regardless of early raindrops
The hitting conditions in Baltimore are not as extreme as they were last night, but that setup resulted in a 1-0 ball game that saw no scoring through most of the action. With two capable righties on the mound tonight, the teams are carrying implied totals of just 4.44 and 4.66 with the Orioles favored slightly at home but the Yankees showing more potential for fantasy scoring and power in our model. Tyler Wells is making the start for Baltimore, he is cheap for $9,600/$8,600, with the blue site price having added appeal. Wells has a 25% strikeout rate over 111.0 innings in 19 starts this season, he has been reliable for depth and upside and has pitched to a 3.65 ERA with a 4.56 xFIP with a 0.99 WHIP. Wells is in play against the Yankees, he has a solid projection that ranks in the top seven on the pitching board at a fair price and we know that New York can lend upside to opposing pitchers, but they did just get Aaron Judge back in the lineup which makes them far more dangerous overall. Gleyber Torres hits ahead of Judge in this configuration, the second baseman has 16 home runs with a 110 WRC+ and cost $4,900/$3,000 as a good buy at second base. Judge looked good at the plate despite not delivering much MLB DFS scoring in his return last night, he has 19 home runs in 217 plate appearances with a massive 30.2% barrel rate and 62.9% hard-hit rate that are unrivaled around the league. Anthony Rizzo put bat-on-ball well a few times last night, he has a .246/.330/.387 triple-slash with 12 home runs and a 102 WRC+ and needs to get things going if the Yankees plan to contend. Giancarlo Stanton is another scuffling bat that could come to life in a big way, he has 13 home runs in 216 plate appearances but is slashing .196/.273/.433 with an 89 WRC+ overall. Stanton has a 15.3% barrel rate and 50.7% hard-hit rate supporting his .237 ISO this season. DJ LeMahieu has been low-end all year but he is cheap with multi-position eligibility on both sites in the heart of the lineup, Jake Bauers has left-handed power potential for $2,500 on both sites, and the lineup closes with inconsistent but high-ceiling options in Harrison Bader, Anthony Volpe, and Kyle Higashioka, all of whom are mix-in options in stacks of Yankees hitters.
The Orioles lineup is facing Clarke Schmidt who projects a few points lower than Wells on the other side but looks playable at a much lower price of just $7,700/$7,800 tonight. Schmidt has a 4.33 ERA and 4.35 xFIP with a 22.5% strikeout rate over 99.2 innings and 20 starts, his one challenge tends to be his depth of innings and reaching bonuses, he has completed the sixth inning only twice in his 20 starts. With the lack of depth essentially baked into his pricing, Schmidt is an option on both sites as a mid-level play at low public popularity. The Orioles should be stacked against him in small doses as well however, Baltimore is showing a bit of power potential against Schmidt’s 43.7% hard hits and 3.48% home runs on 9.0% barrels and 90.6 mph of exit velocity allowed this season. Gunnar Henderson has a 119 WRC+ with 16 home runs and five stolen bases in the books while striking out 28% of the time but walking at an 11.9% clip and mashing to the tune of a 53.5% hard-hit rate and 11.2% barrel rate. Henderson is a star at third base or shortstop for $5,100/$3,200. Adley Rutschman is the team’s excellent everyday catcher, he has made 435 plate appearances this season and has 14 home runs with a 122 WRC+ while striking out merely 15.9% of the time and walking at a 13.8% pace. Rutschman is the indisputable leader of this club and probably their most important current player, he has delivered in all facets and is easily playable on both sites at $5,200/$3,100. Anthony Santander has 18 home runs to lead the projected lineup, his .216 ISO is slightly behind the .222 carried by Henderson and the .221 posted by cleanup hitter Ryan O’Hearn, but Santander is the most consistent power bat in the Baltimore lineup and he costs just $4,400/$3,100 with eligibility at first base and in the outfield. O’Hearn is also a first baseman, as is Ryan Mountcastle, creating a bit of a logjam at the position. All three options are in play, O’Hearn has surprised the world with a .302/.346/.523 triple-slash and 136 WRC+ and Mountcastle has major power from the right side with 12 home runs on the season in just 297 plate appearances. Adam Frazier and Austin Hays are quality hitters with experience, Frazier has 12 unexpected home runs after hitting a combined eight over the past two years, and Hays has nine on the season while creating runs 17% better than average over 364 plate appearances. Rookies Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg make this lineup playable from 1-9, they are both very highly regarded young players with clear ceilings in this matchup even this early in their careers.
Play: Tyler Wells, Yankees bats/stacks, Orioles bats/stacks, Clarke Schmidt value darts
Update Notes:
Tampa Bay Rays (+112/4.12) @ Houston Astros (-121/4.47)
Astros starter Hunter Brown has been so reliably steady on the mound that it is easy to forget this is his first season in the Show. Brown has a 4.19 ERA and a 3.17 xFIP with a 27.5% strikeout rate and just a 7.9% walk rate to go with his 11% swinging-strike rate and 27.6% CSW% for the season. The righty has been very good at keeping opposing home run potential in check, he has allowed just 2.71% home runs on a 5.3-degree average launch angle despite 44.6% hard hits. Brown has a strong projection and ranks among the slate leaders for just $8,800/$8,500 against a Rays team that has not been as strong as it was over the season’s first few months and is carrying a 24.3% strikeout rate as a group in the projected version of the lineup. Brown has a fairly significant ceiling for the cheap prices, he has the potential to be one of the top starters of the day, but the matchup is not completely safe with the Rays’ known upside. Tampa Bay’s lineup opens with Yandy Diaz who has a 157 WRC+ with 14 home runs on the season and costs just $4,800/$3,500 at first base on DraftKings with third base positioning still available on FanDuel. Wander Franco has 11 homers and 28 stolen bases while creating runs 13% better than average but has cooled somewhat after a very hot start to the season. Luke Raley has 15 long balls and 11 stolen bases, Randy Arozarena has 17 homers with 12 steals and is the team’s best overall player, and Brandon Lowe is one of the best power-hitting second basemen in baseball when things are right. Arozarena is cheap at $5,500/$3,600 and Lowe is very discounted at just $4,000/$2,900, they are priorities in stacks of Rays hitters at those prices in the heart of the batting order. Isaac Paredes has been outstanding in his 345 plate appearances, he is slashing .253/.357/.486 with a .233 ISO and has 18 home runs with a 140 WRC+ in the books to this point. Josh Lowe and Jose Siri are strong options with a 119 and 120 WRC+ respectively. Siri has 20 home runs in just 246 plate appearances with a 15.1% barrel rate on the season. Christian Bethancourt is a capable cheap catcher at the bottom of the lineup.
The Astros will be facing a premium right-handed rookie as well, with Taj Bradley taking the mound for Tampa Bay tonight. Bradley has made 15 starts and thrown 71.1 innings, he has a 30.4% strikeout rate with a 7.1% walk rate and a 3.32 xFIP, though his ERA sits at 5.30 and he has a 1.37 WHIP that is unsustainably high. Bradley has allowed a bit of power this season with a 4.17% home run rate on too much premium contact, he has yielded a 9.3% barrel rate and 46.9% hard hits with 91.6 mph of exit velocity that could play to the Astros’ power. The main concern with Bradley is not the power he has allowed however, his depth of innings is very much in question with three straight starts of exactly 5.0 innings despite good performances. Bradley has not pitched in the sixth innings since June 21st and has only done so twice this season, with many of his starts falling short of even five innings. Bradley projects strongly enough to be in play for his $8,000/$8,300 price tag, but a shot at the quality start and six innings would be a major bonus from the starter tonight. Jose Altuve has a 9.73 and sits second on the Astros in our home run model tonight. The second baseman has six home runs and five stolen bases in just 150 plate appearances this year and is carrying a .219 ISO in the small sample. Altuve hit 28 home runs and swiped 18 bags in 604 opportunities last season, he is a star at his position for $5,700/$3,600. Jeremy Pena has underperformed all year and has fallen to an 82 WRC+, his 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 391 plate appearances have not been enough to keep him relevant, he is only an option given the spot in the batting order and a cheap price tag in stacks. Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez are the team’s power core, Tucker has 18 homers and the other two each have 17 with Alvarez missing significant time and possessing by far the most actual power at the plate. All three players are strong options on this slate, Tucker has an 8.65 in the home run model, Bregman lands at 7.07, and Alvarez leads the team at 13.23. Jose Abreu has a 79 WRC+ and is threatening to get within 20% of league average run creation, he has not been good this season but provides cheap potential in Astros stacks. Chas McCormick has been very good this season, the outfielder has 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases with a 147 WRC+ and an 11.1% barrel rate that has led to a .242 ISO. Corey Julks and Martin Maldonado round out the lineup as playable parts in small doses.
Play: Hunter Brown, Rays bats/stacks, Astros bats/stacks, Taj Bradley mid-range value darts but beware the short start
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (-102/5.03) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-106/5.08)
note: this game has some of the more critical weather concerns of the day
Two high run totals have us looking in other directions for pitching and toward bats in the matchup between the Cubs and Cardinals in St. Louis today. Chicago has a 5.03-run implied total against washed righty Adam Wainwright, and the Cardinals check in with a 5.08 mark against not-much-better Jameson Taillon. Between the two, Taillon is the “if your house and kids are on the line” selection, but neither is a good option, even at $6,800/$8,000 Taillon is a thin play who projects in the bottom quarter of the board. Wainwright costs $6,000/$6,300 and is projected third from the bottom on a 26-man slate.
The Cubs have hero Mike Tauchman at the top of the lineup again, the lefty made a terrific game-saving catch to rob a home run and walk off the victory last night. Tauchman has always been a good defender but lacks a true ceiling at the plate, he has a .360 on-base percentage supporting his presence in the leadoff spot and has created runs 10% ahead of the league average in a surprising bit of output over 212 opportunities, but we would not bet on a matching performance in another 212. Tauchman is in play given the lineup spot and cheap $3,400/$3,100 pricing in Cubs stacks. Nico Hoerner has stolen 25 bases while getting on at a .333 clip, if he were reaching first base more reliably he would be a better weapon both for the Cubs and for MLB DFS, for now, he is simply OK for $4,800/$3,500 with the DraftKings price arguably a bit high given his 100 WRC+ mark. Ian Happ is affordable at $3,300/$3,100 in the outfield, he has nine home runs and nine stolen bases in a bit of a downturn for counting stats, but he has created runs 15% better than average while getting on base at a team-leading .376 clip on a squad that reaches base reliably up and down the lineup. Cody Bellinger is slashing .319/.369/.546 with 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases and has not stopped producing in his monster comeback season. Seiya Suzuki has a 101 WRC+ and comes cheap for a player with a 49.1% hard-hit rate but overall he was expected to do more at the dish. Dansby Swanson has also seen a downturn in counting stats with just 12 home runs but he has created runs 15% better than average and is cheap for his talent at shortstop at $4,600/$3,200. Christopher Morel, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Tucker Barnhart close out the lineup, Morel has the most appeal given his power upside, Patrick Wisdom would be another good option for power late in the lineup if he plays. The Cardinals lineup is in typical form in the projected version, they look very playable for power and run creation potential against Taillon. Brendan Donovan has a .283/.364/.422 triple-slash with 11 home runs and a 40.8% hard-hit rate for just $3,600/$3,000 with three-position eligibility on the blue site. Donovan has created runs 20% better than average and is a strong buy in stacks of Cardinals in this matchup. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are the team’s stars, though one or both may be headed out of town sooner than expected given the team’s struggles. Goldschmidt has 18 home runs with a 132 WRC+ and Arenado has hit 22 long balls and has a 128 mark for run creation, the team’s issues have largely not been the fault of the two fantastic corner infielders. Lars Nootbaar is a good lefty hitter with a bit of power and speed for just $3,700/$3,300. Willson Contreras has 11 home runs with a .180 ISO from behind the plate, he is a playable part as a catcher but has not truly stood out this season despite a run creation mark 16% better than average. Nolan Gorman has major power and is tied with Arenado with 22 homers on the season, his .255 ISO from the left side should play well in this matchup. Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Walker, and Paul DeJong are three capable right-handed hitters with a strong blend of power and speed, they are all in play from these spots in a lineup that runs 1-9 with ease for MLB DFS purposes and looks to be in a good spot.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks, Cardinals bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (-112/4.38) @ San Francisco Giants (+103/4.22)
The Giants are set to open the game with Ryan Walker for an inning before he hands off to bulk reliever Anthony DeSclafani, who has made one appearance in that role. In his last outing, the veteran righty threw 4.1 ineffective innings of bulk relief, striking out two, walking two, and allowing four earned runs on eight hits including a home run to the lowly Nationals. DeSclafani has a 4.88 ERA and 4.15 xFIP with an 18.9% strikeout rate in 99.2 innings and 18 traditional starts, he may not need the opener to succeed, though he is not a high-end option for MLB DFS purposes in either setup, particularly at $7,300/$7,100. The Red Sox bats are in play despite a 4.38-run implied total, the hope would be that the lower total keeps the public ownership low on a collection of strong hitters at prices that are too cheap for their ceilings. Boston’s lineup looks like a potentially sneaky investment with Jarren Duran providing immediate value at $4,200/$3,100. The outfielder is low-priced despite a .311/.363/.500 triple-slash with a 132 WRC+ and 21 stolen bases over his 295 plate appearances. Duran has starred in the leadoff role since moving to that spot in the lineup, he is an excellent option at a cheap price ahead of a strong group including Mastaka Yoshida who has not stopped hitting all season. Yoshida has a .313/.374/.494 triple-slash and strikes out just 11.3% of the time in his first MLB season. The NPB veteran has produced a 136 WRC+ to lead the Red Sox and he has proven to be a fantastic signing for the team. Justin Turner costs $4,500/$3,400 with eligibility at first and second base on DraftKings in a big bonus to this lineup, and eligibility at first or third base as has been the case on FanDuel. Turner has 16 home runs and is slashing .286/.356/.476 with a 125 WRC+. Rafael Devers has a 13.9% barrel rate and 51.4% hard hits with 25 home runs and a .259 ISO with a 125 WRC+, Adam Duvall has a .272 ISO and 127 WRC+ with eight home runs in just 166 plate appearances, and Triston Casas has 16 homers with a .235 ISO from the left side of the plate while getting on base at a .361 clip in what now qualifies as a quietly strong rookie campaign. Alex Verdugo is a very good left-handed hitter to find late in a lineup at just $4,000/$3,000, he is a strong value buy for Red Sox stacks. Connor Wong and Yu Chang are both playable parts in an abundance of Red Sox stacks tonight.
Lefty James Paxton tops our pitching board for just $9,900/$10,400 tonight. Paxton has a 29.1% strikeout rate over his 65 innings in 12 outings since returning from a very long injury absence. The lefty missed most of the last three years on the mound but has managed a 4.88 ERA and 4.15 xFIP in his return to action. He has given up too much premium contact at 44.6% hard hits with an 8.2% barrel rate and 3.58% home runs, but there is a major ceiling for strikeouts in play with San Francisco carrying a collective 24.1% strikeout rate against lefties while creating runs seven percent below average in the split this season. Paxton seems likely to slip past the field on both sites tonight, he is worthy of shares ahead of the projected ownership around the industry. The Giants have a projected lineup that lacks some of their typical left-handed oomph but still features good righties and playable parts. Austin Slater has a 127 WRC+ with five home runs in 117 plate appearances and leads off against most lefties ahead of power-hitting Wilmer Flores and JD Davis who have combined for 26 home runs this season at cheap prices. Flores has a team-leading 137 WRC+ and Davis is 12% ahead of the curve in a strong year overall. Patrick Bailey looked better about two weeks ago in a small sample, he has normalized quickly and now sits at .264/.297/.429 with five home runs and a 96 WRC+ in the cleanup spot in the projected lineup. Luis Matos has a .256/.315/.342 triple-slash with just a .085 ISO and 83 WRC+ this season, he is a hit-and-speed option at low pricing. Michael Conforto slots in with 13 home runs late in the lineup, the lefty power hitter has a .160 ISO and 100 WRC+ and costs just $3,900/$3,000 in this matchup. Marco Luciano has projected power for days but is unreliable for contact, he has made just five plate appearances in the Show but spiked to a 10.37 in our home run model today which made him our hopefully sneaky overall home run pick of the day. Casey Schmitt and LaMonte Wade Jr. are playable parts from the bottom of the batting order with Wade strongly preferred between the two even with a good lefty on the mound.
Play: James Paxton aggressively, Red Sox bats/stacks, minor shares of Giants bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+160/4.36) @ Atlanta Braves (-175/5.77)
note: there is a minor amount of weather in the area, check the forecast prior to lock but this is a very good spot that we will not want to let go of easily, bad weather that leads to low ownership on a game that plays would be a bonus
The visiting Brewers are carrying a 4.36-run implied total with the Braves strongly favored in Vegas. Milwaukee has their power numbers checked by talented starter Bryce Elder, who is perhaps a better real-life pitcher than a DFS option on most slates. Elder has a 3.30 ERA with a 4.22 xFIP over 114.2 innings and 20 starts this season, the righty has an 18.1% strikeout rate with 10.1% swinging strikes and has limited home runs to just 2.53%. Elder is able to keep the ball in the yard by inducing ground balls, he has allowed an average launch angle of just 7.5 degrees with a 5.8% barrel rate this season and was similarly adept at limiting barrels and home runs as a rookie last season in a smaller sample. Elder costs $8,500/$8,700, he is carrying a strong enough projection to put him in play at that cost on either site and he ranks in the top third of the board in a fairly good matchup against the limited Brewers lineup. Christian Yelich is easily Milwaukee’s top player, he has created runs 29% better than average this season with 15 home runs and 22 stolen bases while slashing .286/.372/.472 with a 53.1% hard-hit rate. William Contreras has 10 home runs and a 47.2% hard-hit rate with a .163 ISO and 114 WRC+ to show for it. The catcher is a moderately interesting play in stacks of Brewers at a $4,800/$3,000 price tag. Willy Adames has 17 home runs and a .189 ISO with a 13.3% barrel rate but a 25.9% strikeout rate and only a 33.6% hard-hit rate this season. The flawed hitter is playable at shortstop for $5,000/$3,000, he has the upside to a massive fantasy score on any given slate but is also a likely source of zeroes. Sal Frelick is a rookie who has been on fire over his first 23 plate appearances and has a 230 WRC+ in the irrelevantly tiny sample. Frelick is expected to hit at this level, he costs just $3,600/$2,900 in the outfield and makes sense in stacks of Brewers bats. Andruw Monasterio has been effective over 115 plate appearances and he has three position eligibility on the FanDuel slate for just $2,600. Abraham Toro has mid-range power and speed and has two early home runs in his 16 plate appearances this season. Tyrone Taylor costs just $2,100/$2,300 with sneaky pop late in the batting order, Brice Turang has four home runs and 11 steals in a low-end rookie season, Joey Wiemer has been somewhat better with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases with an 82 WRC+ to Turang’s 58.
The Braves are a major source of power, runs, fantasy points, home runs, sequencing, and probably gold and oil as well if you ask nicely enough. Atlanta is once again carrying an implied team total that leads all of the non-Coors teams today at 5.77 runs in a matchup against low-end righty Julio Teheran. The veteran former Braves pitcher has made 10 starts for Milwaukee this season and has a 17.5% strikeout rate with a very good 4.8% walk rate while pitching to a 3.75 ERA that surprises on the surface but a more expected 4.73 xFIP under the covers. Teheran has a 9.1% swinging-strike rate with a 26.5% CSW% and he has allowed 3.93% home runs on 7.5% barrels and 38.5% hard hits. Teheran was mostly absent from the past few seasons, he had not thrown relevant innings since 2019 and has not provided good innings since 2016. Teheran is a target for the Braves hitting on this slate, particularly given his $7,600/$8,100 price tag, if he beats us we will accept the loss. Atlanta’s everyday lineup is intact, though we may see Travis d’Arnaud in for Sean Murphy, which is how the team played the Saturday-Sunday games last week as well. d’Arnaud delivered as our home run pick that day and has nine in just 159 plate appearances on the season, he is very much on theme with Atlanta’s powerhouse approach at the plate and had 18 homers in 426 opportunities last year. Leadoff superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. has 23 home runs and will likely have 50 stolen bases by this time tomorrow, he sits at 49 and a 163 WRC+ going into action tonight and is always a priority bat. Ozzie Albies has 24 home runs with a .245 ISO and 114 WRC+, his 14.42 in our home run model leads the position today, landing slightly ahead of even Dodgers’ superstar Mookie Betts. Austin Riley has a 12.2% barrel rate with 48.4% hard hits and 23 home runs on the season. Matt Olson leads the team with 33 home runs and has a .316 ISO as one of the best overall power hitters in all of baseball at any position. Olson is an outstanding option with an 18.7% barrel rate and 57.1% hard-hit rate, he is well worth the $6,400/$4,200 price tag. d’Arnaud slots in fith with Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario providing power behind him in the lineup. Ozuna has 19 home runs and Rosario has hit 15, Orlando Arcia has 10 with a 111 WRC+ from the eighth spot as an excellent value shortstop every day this season, and Michael Harris II rounds out the lineup with a 105 WRC+, power, and speed. The Braves are playable in any configuration from 1-9 on this slate, they have a premium matchup and cannot be ignored.
Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively, Bryce Elder as an upper-middle option
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+101/5.98) @ Colorado Rockies (-109/6.14)
The Athletics and Rockies put up a 13-run game last night, with Oakland scoring eight with a pair of home runs. The matchup tonight projects for similar scoring potential with Coors Field floating the two lousy offenses to implied totals they would not otherwise reach. The matchup between Chris Flexen and Paul Blackburn is not appealing for MLB DFS purposes, Blackburn does not lack talent on the mound, he has a 5.06 ERA but a 4.31 xFIP with a 22.2% strikeout rate on the season but the slate is deep and broad and rostering starters at Coors feels a bit too cute, even with Blackburn at $5,700/$6,900. Flexen is a non-option, he has a 14.8% strikeout rate with a 5.23 xFIP in four starts and 42 innings this season.
The Oakland lineup is projected to open with Tony Kemp once again, he has a 79 WRC+ with a 9.5% strikeout rate and is capable of putting the ball in play and stealing a base if he gets on, but he is a very low-end option. Ramon Laureano homered last night and could be in play for the leadoff spot in today’s lineup if the team decides to shake things up a bit. Zack Gelof should be back in the second spot in the lineup, he homered yesterday as the highest option in this lineup in our home run model and the lefty infielder retains that title today at 8.60. Gelof has two home runs in his 50 plate appearances so far and has put up a 119 WRC+ in the tiny sample since his promotion as one of the team’s top prospects. JJ Bleday is a lefty with a bit of undelivered potential at the plate, he has eight home runs and a .177 ISO with a 106 WRC+ over 236 plate appearances and is a playable part in stacks of Athletics. Seth Brown has 10 home runs in just 211 opportunities, he is a good left-handed power hitter who has a .196 ISO with a 14.3% barrel rate and 46% hard hits, but he is below the Mendoza line at .196/.276/.392 and he has struck out at a 30.3% clip this season. Cody Thomas is another recently-promoted rookie on the left side, he has one home run with a .276/.344/.448 triple-slash and 126 WRC+ over 32 plate appearances since the call-up. Thomas is in play for $2,800/$2,700 in the outfield. Jace Peterson is a low-end left-handed veteran with moderate power, he has six home runs and a .104 ISO in 319 plate appearances and is not a priority. Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom are both eligible at catcher, Langeliers has 10 cheap sneaky home runs at the position and is rarely popular, even at Coors he will be fairly easy to roster, and Soderstrom is yet another premium rookie, though he has done nothing in his 35 plate appearances since a call-up last week. Nick Allen is a slap-hitting defender to round out the lineup. The Rockies side includes Jurickson Profar as a wildly flawed leadoff hitter who has a 78 WRC+ on the season, Profar and Tony Kemp should open a two-star restaurant together somewhere and give these lineup spots to more deserving players. Ezequiel Tovar has 10 home runs and five stolen bases with a 78 WRC+ for $4,200/$3,300 at shortstop but at least he has a ceiling as a developing player with good tools. Ryan McMahon gains his upside back against a righty, he has 16 home runs and a .202 ISO with a 12.1% barrel rate and 45.6% hard-hit rate this season. CJ Cron has 11 homers, Randal Grichuk hit his seventh of the season last night, and left-handed premium rookie Nolan Jones has nine in just 177 plate appearances. The trio is a good mini-stack in the heart of the lineup and they connect well with either McMahon and the top of the lineup or catcher Elias Diaz and mix-in options Harold Castro and Brenton Doyle at the bottom of the lineup. Doyle has seven home runs and 14 stolen bases in just 230 plate appearances as a sneaky low-end source of counting stats.
Play: bats bats bats, Blackburn value darts for the pure gamblers who like risk for very thin potential in an unnecessary spot
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (-115/4.67) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+106/4.43)
The Mariners are pulling strong projections against scuffling rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt who has an absurd 8.81 ERA with a better-but-bad 5.28 xFIP in 31.2 innings and seven starts. Pfaadt has not been truly valuable for MLB DFS in any of his appearances in the Show this season, he has an 18.5% strikeout rate with a 1.64 WHIP and has allowed a 12.1% barrel rate, 48.6% hard hits, and a ridiculous 8.22% home run rate, which amounts to 12 homers allowed to just 146 hitters faced. Pfaadt is a fairly highly regarded starter who was expected to contribute to this team this season, he has been a big disappointment but he does have a 27.1% strikeout rate with a 4.85 xFIP and 3.71 ERA in 60.2 innings and 12 starts at AAA this season in a tough league for runs. Pfaadt still has hope in the long term, but in this matchup, he is pushing significant potential in the other direction and the Mariners may go slightly overlooked with just a 4.67-run implied total in Vegas. Seattle’s powerful lineup opens with a good correlated scorer who fills shortstop for a cheap price in JP Crawford. For $3,400/$2,800, Crawford’s 123 WRC+ and .368 on-base percentage are easily playable in stacks of Mariners hitters, he ties directly to Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh in the projected version of the lineup. Both sluggers have 14 home runs this season, with Suarez carrying a 103 WRC+ and Raleigh at 108, but they both strike out in the high-20% range while hitting for weak averages and not getting on base frequently enough. Teoscar Hernandez fits that same mold, he has a 14.3% barrel rate with a 49.1% hard-hit rate and has hit 16 homers this season but only gets on at a .287 clip and strikes out 31.7% of the time. Julio Rodriguez may climb back to the second spot in the lineup, in either position he is well worth the investment at $5,200/$3,700, he leads the team with 17 home runs and 24 stolen bases and has a 111 WRC+ over 456 plate appearances. Mike Ford has 11 surprising home runs and costs just $2,500/$2,700 as a value first baseman with a 10.04 that leads the team in our home run model today. Ty France has been a letdown but is a playable part late in the lineup for cheap prices, he had a much better hit tool and good mid-range power over the past two seasons but has fallen to .247/.321/.365 with a 98 WRC+ this year. Cade Marlowe is a rookie with one home run and two stolen bases in his 15 career plate appearances in the Show. Marlowe has put up multiple seasons of double-digit home runs and steals in the minors over the past few years, he has potential at the plate despite arriving as an unheralded 26-year-old. Kolten Wong has made 210 plate appearances and has a 38 WRC+ at the bottom of the lineup.
The Mariners have a tremendous pitching system that has produced several outstanding arms over the past few seasons, Bryan Woo is looking like yet another over his first nine starts and 44 innings. Woo has a 28.9% strikeout rate with a seven percent walk rate in the small sample. He has pitched to a 4.91 ERA and 3.80 xFIP with a 12.9% swinging-strike rate and 28.3% CSW% and has yielded a 4.28% home run rate on 7.7% barrels and 35% hard hits. Woo had two bumpy outings in a row after a run of several high-end starts, he has given up two home runs in each of his last two appearances, though he still went six innings while striking out seven but allowing four earned runs against the Blue Jays in his most recent start. Woo is a strong option despite a tough matchup, he projects well for his $8,200/$8,300 salary and the field is unlikely to get much exposure to him both because of the recent bumps in the road and with the good Diamondbacks lineup on the other side. Vegas has Arizona’s total at just 4.43 implied runs, they could be a trap spot if uninformed gamers chase the short-sample power marks for Woo, the pitcher is better than his last two games, even if he does not post a slate-relevant score he is no guarantee to give up power or fantasy points to a good Arizona lineup. At the same time, he might, so we should all grab Diamondbacks hitters while we’re here. Arizona has been very good all season, they sequence and create runs very well and have sturdy power throughout the lineup with several stars at good prices. Geraldo Perdomo has been creating runs 23% better than average and getting on base at a .389 clip this season, he is cheap in a strong correlated scoring spot and offers multi-position eligibility in the middle infield on FanDuel. Ketel Marte is a star at his position, his 8.55 falls short of Ozzie Albies and Mookie Betts in our home run model at second base, but he costs less and is a very good option for power. Marte has 17 home runs with a .221 ISO and 139 WRC+ this season. Corbin Carroll has a nine percent barrel rate and 41.7% hard hits over 405 plate appearances while striking out 20.2%, walking 9.4% and slashing .287/.366/.552 with a .265 ISO, 21 home runs, 31 stolen bases, amounting to a run creation mark 44% better than average. Carroll is a star for $6,000/$4,200 as the team’s most expensive player. It is easy to average down the cost of getting to the outfielder, Christian Walker has massive power and makes excellent contact while striking out just 18.6% of the time at first base for $5,200/$3,800. Walker leads the team with 22 long balls this season. Dominic Canzone has power as a $2,100/$2,200 option in the outfield, he has a home run on the board in his first 34 plate appearances as a mid-level rookie. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has 15 home runs and is another option for good power with a low strikeout rate, Emmanuel Rivera has displayed a good hit tool over 212 plate appearances, Jake McCarthy has good speed and 23 stolen bases on the season, and Carson Kelly is a cheap catcher who has not done much in his 69 plate appearances with just a .061 ISO and seven WRC+.
Play: Mariners bats/stacks, Bryan Woo, Diamondbacks bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (+154/3.97) @ San Diego Padres (-168/5.14)
A matchup of veteran starters strongly favors San Diego’s Yu Darvish in the late game from the Coast. Darvish has a 25.2% strikeout rate with a 3.92 xFIP but a 4.80 ERA that may obscure his potential a bit. The righty has walked 8.4% and has allowed a 3.50% home run rate on 7.2% barrels and 38.7% hard hits in 18 starts and 101.1 innings. Darvish has not been quite as sharp as in previous seasons but he has not been bad this year and he has the Rangers at just a 3.97-run implied total. At $9,300/$9,800 the veteran righty has a good projection for the money and a high ceiling, even against a good Rangers squad. Texas still lacks Corey Seager and catcher Jonah Heim, but there are stars in the lineup with Marcus Semien leading off and a power core of Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung in the heart of the lineup. Semien has 15 home runs and a 120 WRC+, Garcia has 25 home runs and a .251 ISO with a 129 mark for run creation, and Jung has had a breakout campaign with 20 home runs and a .213 ISO with a 125 WRC+. Travis Jankowski and Nathaniel Lowe are highly playable options between Semien and the two power-hitting righties, Jankowski has a strong triple-slash and speed, Lowe offers a bit of power and a good hit tool and he has a team-leading 135 WRC+ over 467 underpriced plate appearances at first base. Lowe is a bargain at $4,100/$3,500. Robbie Grossman and Mitch Garver slot into late spots in the lineup, Garver has power at the catcher position with five home runs on the board in 127 plate appearances, Grossman is an inconsistent contributor in the outfield. Ezequiel Duran may climb in the lineup tonight, he has been excellent this season and has 13 home runs with a 124 WRC+, he is joined by Leody Taveras in a good pairing for cheap prices at the bottom of the lineup, Taveras has 11 home runs, 10 steals, and a 111 WRC+.
The Padres have a hefty 5.14-run implied total against veteran lefty Martin Perez, who has a 4.91 ERA and an uglier 5.14 xFIP and just a 15.1% strikeout rate on the season. Perez has induced just 7.4% swinging strikes, he has an 8.4% walk rate that is too high and leads to a 1.49 WHIP, and he has allowed 39% hard hits with 89.6 mph of exit velocity leading to a 3.99% home run rate. Perez is a target for bats, his $7,200 price tag takes him mostly off the board on both sites, there are better spots for value darts. Ha-Seong Kim has had a career year already and it is not yet August, the infielder has 14 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 128 WRC+ and is in command of the leadoff role in the Padres daily lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 13.74 in our home run model to lead the team by a fair margin, he has 18 long balls and a .225 ISO on the season. Juan Soto has a 9.67 in the home run model, he has 20 home runs on the year and a .237 ISO with a 13.1% barrel rate and 58.2% hard-hit rate, we are unconcerned about the same-handed pitching matchup against this lefty. Manny Machado has 20 home runs to tie Soto for the team lead after a cold start to the year, the star third baseman is up to a .214 ISO and 114 WRC+ and looks like there was never a slump at all. Xander Bogaerts is cheap at $4,400/$3,000 for his talent at shortstop, he is slashing .262/.346/.397 with a 109 WRC+ in 420 plate appearances this season. Luis Campusano, Gary Sanchez, Matthew Batten, and Trent Grisham round out the lineup with mix-and-match options. Sanchez is our preferred bat for power potential, he has 10 home runs with a .234 ISO in 173 plate appearances. The Padres are a premium stack with a flawed bottom third but all of the options that may appear at the end of their lineup can be played in conjunction with their extra-premium top end.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, Yu Darvish, Rangers stacks as a hedge against Darvish shares
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (+173/4.46) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-190/6.17)
The final game of the night sees both teams looking like strong options for MLB DFS scoring in our projections and power models again tonight. The Dodgers are highly favored in Vegas, they are facing low-end starter Luke Weaver in what is a very unlikely spot for success for the pitcher. Weaver costs $6,500/$6,000 and is not worth it on either site, he has a 7.20 ERA and 5.00 xFIP with a 17.6% strikeout rate and 5.41% home run rate in 80 innings and 17 starts this year and is a major target for a Dodgers squad that carries a 6.17-run implied total. At the same time, Cincinnati bats look strong against rookie righty Emmet Sheehan who has a 6.75 ERA and 5.96 xFIP with a 17.1% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate with 8.8% barrels and a 3.10% home run rate in his first six starts and 29.1 innings. Sheehan is pulling a moderately good projection for the value pricing at $7,400/$7,000 but there are probably better options than his lower-middle projection.
The Reds lineup opens with Elly De La Cruz at $6,100/$3,700 with third base and shortstop eligibility. The potential to flex De La Cruz and fellow premium rookie infielder Matt McLain between multiple positions is an extreme value for this productive lineup. De La Cruz has six home runs and 17 stolen bases in his first 192 plate appearances but sits at just 95 WRC+ with a 32.8% strikeout rate. TJ Friedl hits between the two infielders, he has seven home runs and 16 steals in a productive season and is a cheap way to average down salaries. McLain has 10 home runs and a .220 ISO with a 137 WRC+ in 288 outstanding plate appearances. Jake Fraley has been good for power and has stolen 17 bases, his 15 home runs from the left side and .212 ISO are a good buy for $4,800/$3,300, Fraley has an 8.25 in our home run model tonight. Jonathan India and Joey Votto are excellent options later in the lineup at cheap prices, India has power and speed and Votto has power, rookie Christian Encarnacion-Strand has a team-leading 10.51 in our home run model, he has one home run but has not been great in 31 plate appearances so far. Will Benson has been very good over 177 plate appearances, he has a 137 WRC+ with seven home runs and 10 stolen bases and costs just $3,300/$2,900, Luke Maile is a playable catcher for a cheap price. On the Dodgers side, essentially everyone is playable. The lineup opens with superstars in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman for high but worthwhile prices. Betts has 27 home runs, a .282 ISO, and a 15.9% strikeout rate, he is a terrific option with multi-position eligibility on both sites. Freeman is the best first baseman in baseball, he has 21 home runs and 12 stolen bases while creating runs 66% better than average and slashing .329/.411/.580. Will Smith is a sturdy bat at the catcher position, the star backstop has 13 home runs and a 138 WRC+, Max Muncy and JD Martinez strike out a lot but destroy pitches when they make contact. Muncy has 25 home runs on the left side and Martinez matches his output from the right side as a great tandem in the heart of the Los Angeles lineup. David Peralta and Jason Heyward are playable left-handed outfielders with power potential at the plate, and Amed Rosario slots into the late lineup where the team used to have low-end Miguel Rojas in a significant talent upgrade. Rosario costs $3,900/$2,800 with a good ceiling and potentially low popularity. James Outman is another left-handed power bat in the outfield at a cheap price, he has 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases this year.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Reds bats/stacks, Sheehan value darts
Update Notes:
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