MLB DFS: DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slate Strategy Keys & Live Show Link – Tuesday 9/5/23

The 10-game Tuesday night MLB DFS main slate has a heavy lean toward offense on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. There are two true aces, with neither of them fully living up to that mantle consistently this season, and a fairly broad mid-range that is comprised more of questionable starters than it is good pitchers in bad spots, there are only a few truly reliable options on the mound tonight and there is a virtual ton of power shining through in the home run model for several teams. Getting a broad spread at the plate with a fairly concentrated pool of pitching in a variety of combinations across a set of lineups is the recommended approach to tonight’s 10-gamer.

Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.

Join us at 4:15 ET for a rundown on today’s slate.

Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.

MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 9/5/23

Detroit Tigers (+210/3.19) @ New York Yankees (-234/4.92)

• Yankees starter Gerrit Cole tops our pitching board today in a good matchup against the Tigers, who have a collective 86 WRC+ against right-handed pitching across the active roster. Detroit strikes out at an aggressive 24.4% rate against right-handed pitching this season and their ISO sits at just .145 as a unit, all of which favors Cole. The Tigers do have a few interesting left-handed hitters and a bit of power from their first baseman if nothing else, but Cole should stand tall in this performance. The righty has a 27.1% strikeout rate, which is down hard from the 32.4% he posted last season, but he has been good overall with a 2.95 ERA and 3.66 xFIP with a 1.04 WHIP and just 6.5% walks. Cole has been better at checking power overall this season with a 2.89% home run rate on similar contact marks to last year when he worked at a 4.16% rate over 200.2 innings. The Yankees ace works deep into games, he has made 28 starts and thrown 174 innings this season and he is tied for the league lead with 20 quality starts.
• Lefty outfielder Akil Baddoo is affordable at $3,000/$2,700, he has nine home runs and 11 stolen bases but just a 90 WRC+ this season, his most interesting year was in 2021 when he hit 13 home runs and stole 18 bags while creating runs eight percent better than average. Zach McKinstry has eight homers and 16 stolen bases but a limited 33.1% hard-hit rate with a .123 ISO and an 84 WRC+ from the left side, he fills multiple positions on both sites for a cheap price ahead of the team’s power bats. Spencer Torkelson has major pop from the right side, the onetime “bust” is up to 25 home runs in a breakout year at the plate. He has a .211 ISO with a 106 WRC+ and he has made excellent contact this season with a 14.6% barrel rate and 51.4% hard hits. Torkelson is a high-end right-handed bat with an 8.27 in our home run model that sits second on the team to Kerry Carpenter, their best overall hitter and a good lefty power bat in a friendly stadium for left-handed power. Carpenter is projected to hit fifth behind Miguel Cabrera who has an 87 WRC+ on the season with three home runs and an OK triple-slash coming into his last visit to Yankee Stadium. Carpenter has hit 20 home runs in just 355 chances, he has a 137 WRC+ to lead the team by a wide margin and he costs $4,500/$2,900 as a lefty targeting the short porch in right. Matt Vierling has a 90 WRC+ over 428 plate appearances in an up-and-down season. Parker Meadows has been good over his first 53 chances at the plate, he has a 131 WRC+ with a home run and two stolen bases and he has a 40% hard-hit rate in the small sample. Meadows is a left-handed $3,300 mix-in outfielder on both sites. Javier Baez has been bad all year, he has a 57 WRC+ and a .100 ISO. Jake Rogers is cheap at $2,900/$2,500 where catchers are required, he has 16 home runs and a .216 ISO on 11.9% barrels and 46.3% hard hits in 304 chances this year but he is hyper-focused on power and does not do much else at the plate.
• Alex Faedo does not look like a strong option tonight, even at value pricing for $7,900/$7,800. The improved Yankees lineup has been frisky of late, with the promotions of the team’s top prospects giving run-scoring a much-needed jolt too late in the season. Faedo has a 20.6% strikeout rate with a 4.89 ERA and 4.79 xFIP with a 7.3% walk rate and he has allowed a 4.72% home run rate on 7.8% barrels with an 18.4-degree average launch angle that does not play well with Yankee Stadium’s homer-friendly environment.
• DJ LeMahieu is up to 14 home runs with a 100 WRC+ on a .241/.321/.398 slash-line in 467 mostly disappointing plate appearances, but his overall skill set historically should be a good fit in the leadoff spot ahead of the team’s elite power core. Aaron Judge has 31 home runs in only 356 chances at the plate, his ISO sits at a massive .357 and he has created runs 70% better than average with a 27.5% barrel rate and 63% hard-hit rate that are unapproachable across the league. Judge has a 14.17 in today’s home run model to lead the hard-hitting squad. Rookie Jasson Dominguez has delivered for Yankees fans in his first 13 plate appearances, the hotshot outfielder has a pair of early home runs with a 63.6% hard-hit rate and .462 ISO in his extremely limited and not overly relevant sample. Dominguez is expected to star for this team for the next decade, he is cheap at $3,000/$2,800, the price alone is worthwhile for the spot in this lineup. Giancarlo Stanton costs $4,600/$2,900 which is far too cheap for a powerhouse outfielder with a 16% barrel rate and 48.9% hard hits for the season. Over 348 plate appearances, Stanton has 21 home runs and a .236 ISO but just a 95 WRC+ with a fairly inept .204/.282/.441 slash line. Gleyber Torres has hit 24 homers and stolen 13 bases while cutting strikeouts from 22.6% to 14.3% this season, he is a star at second base in a good spot. Anthony Volpe came into the season as a top prospect and he has delivered mixed results, but he is a clear keeper at shortstop in the long-term. Volpe has a 94 WRC+ and a lousy triple-slash that are somewhat obscured by his 20 home runs and 22 stolen bases but he is cheap for the counting stats and he has a key spot in the new version of this lineup. Austin Wells had a big hit over the weekend but sits at just a 46 WRC+ over his first 12 MLB plate appearances, the inexpensive rookie catcher is a good option in stacks of Yankees, his skills at the plate are not in question, he is expected to hit at this level. Everson Pereira got here a week before the most recent call-ups but he has not delivered much at the plate in his 51 plate appearances. Pereira is slashing just .130/.216/.174 despite a terrific 16% barrel rate and 64% hard-hit rate in his small sample. Oswald Peraza rounds out the list of playable prospects, he has made 107 plate appearances this season with a 40 WRC+ and four stolen bases. Peraza is also expected to hit at this level, he has a $2,900/$2,300 price tag at second or third base on DraftKings and adding shortstop eligibility on the blue site. The Yankees stack ranks in the upper-middle portion of the stacks board for fantasy points and points-per-dollar value.

Play: Gerrit Cole, Yankees bats/stacks, minor shares of Tigers hedge/contrarian stacks with key hitters

Update Notes: 

New York Mets (-136/4.88) @ Washington Nationals (+126/4.21)

• Washington lefty Patrick Corbin is extremely targetable with bats on most slates. Corbin has a 4.90 ERA with a 4.67 xFIP on the season and he has allowed a 3.97% home run rate on 44.2% hard hits with a nine percent barrel rate and 90.9 mph of exit velocity. Corbin has been striking out hitters at just a 16% pace, down from 18% last year which was down from 19% the season before. His 2021 home run rate was the worst year of our three-season sample at 4.93% home runs but he has allowed a significant amount of power in the sample. Corbin is not a good option at $6,000/$7,800, at best he is a very low-probability value dart for DraftKings with several other better options on the board.
• The Mets are pulling in the second-best fantasy points ranking and the best points-per-dollar marks on both sites on our stacks board, they look like a high-priority squad with a third-ranked mark for collective home run potential. Brandon Nimmo is a very good leadoff bat, he has a .358 on-base percentage and has hit 20 home runs of his own from the left side this season. Nimmo has a 9.53 in the home run model, while only two of his home runs have come against same-handed pitching this season his overall slash-line is better against lefties. Nimmo is a better option for correlated scoring in this matchup, he has a great spot ahead of Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso in the typical top end of this lineup. Lindor is very cheap for his ceiling at $4,900/$3,600, the relative DraftKings price is a steal for the 25/25 player with a .211 ISO and 118 WRC+ at a crucial position. Lindor has a 12.12 in our home run model and he is in a great spot for MLB DFS value today. Jeff McNeil slots in third between the two stars, he has a 99 WRC+ on the season and has pulled himself up to .270/.335/.367. McNeil continues to be a hit-focused option who needs to rely on BABIP to provide value, he does not draw enough walks at just 6.2% to support a very good on-base percentage, which is limiting when his hits do not drop in, this season his BABIP sits at .292 after it was .353 supporting a strong season last year. Alonso has all-world power with 41 home runs and a .301 ISO on 15.7% barrels and 42.5% hard hits this season. Alonso costs $5,000/$3,900, he is far too cheap on the DraftKings slate and his FanDuel price is both fair and easy to reach with all of the values in this lineup. Francisco Alvarez has 21 home runs in 365 rookie plate appearances but seems to have hit something of a wall several weeks ago, he is down to a 96 WRC+ and a weak .211/.285 front-end of his triple-slash, and he has not hit for power in recent games. Alvarez is cheap where his position is required and he is playable on both sites with a 13.91 in our home run model. Mark Vientos checks in with a reputation for power that precedes the actual consistent delivery of home runs at this level. Vientos has four long balls in 144 chances and a 60 WRC+ on the season, but he costs just $2,500/$2,300 at third base on DraftKings and adding the opposite corner on FanDuel as a good multi-positional power bat. Ronnie Mauricio is a recent call-up and a top prospect for the Mets with a 182 WRC+ in his first 11 plate appearances and he is very cheap with eligibility at second base and shortstop on DraftKings for only $3,000 and adding third base to that positioning for $2,500 on the blue site. Jonathan Arauz and Tim Locastro round out the projected batting order as mix-in parts, Locastro has a bit of speed if he manages to get on base.
• The Mets are starting a low-strikeout veteran lefty of their own in Jose Quintana, but unlike his opponent, he has been very good at keeping home runs in check this season. Quintana has a 0.51% home run rate in 47 innings and eight starts, he worked at just a 1.18% rate in a much larger sample of 165.2 innings and 32 starts last year. The southpaw has a limited 17.9% strikeout rate but he was at 20.2% last season in a bit of a better showing. Quintana has a 3.26 ERA but a 4.88 xFIP this season, his 10.3% walk rate is not sustainable alongside the low strikeout rate. For $7,300/$8,800, Quintana is a difficult call, he has the talent to post six clean innings against a Nationals team that is far better against lefties, but the strikeout total projects to be low against MLB’s best team at limiting strikeouts against lefties. The pitcher is on the SP2 value board for a few shares on DraftKings, the FanDuel price is a tall order but he projects in that neighborhood and is not unplayable from the middle of the board.
• CJ Abrams has an 88 WRC+ overall on the season and he has crashed to just 97 in 221 plate appearances in the leadoff role after cresting to around 110 initially, and he is at just 49 overall against same-handed pitching in 151 plate appearances this season. Abrams is a tough fit in the leadoff spot against a left-handed starter, the team may opt to go in a different direction with several players who are more adept in the split. Lane Thomas has a 165 WRC+ over 175 plate appearances against lefties this season, with eight of his home runs and a .242 ISO in the split while striking out just 18.3% of the time, he is a strong option in this matchup for $5,000/$3,300. Joey Meneses has 11 home runs and a .129 ISO with a 100 WRC+ on the season, he climbs to a 104 WRC+ in 170 opportunities against lefties, with two of his home runs and a 17.6% strikeout rate in the split. Keibert Ruiz has created runs 11% better than average against southpaws this season with an otherworldly 4.4% strikeout rate in the split. The catcher has just one of his home runs and a .127 ISO against lefties in a bit of a statistical oddity, but he has excellent bat-to-ball skills and a .302/.346/.429 triple-slash in the split. Carter Kieboom costs just $3,600/$2,900 at third base, the right-handed infielder has three quick home runs in 40 plate appearances this season, he hit six in 249 chances in 2021 and did not play in the Show in 2022. Kieboom has created runs five percent better than average overall in the small sample and 97% better than average in his highly limited sample of 14 plate appearances against lefties this season, with two of the home runs coming in the split. Alex Call and Ildemaro Vargas slot in the sixth and seventh spots in the projected lineup, Call has a 102 WRC+ with three homers and a 16.4% strikeout rate while walking 13.7% of the time in his 146 plate appearances against lefties, which should play well against Quintana’s current form. Vargas has made 85 plate appearances in the split this season, he has a 5.9% strikeout rate with a .207 ISO and 104 WRC+ with three of his home runs and a solid triple-slash. Vargas has very sneaky value for $2,800 at second or third base on DraftKings and $2,300 with shortstop added to that mix on FanDuel. Michael Chavis has a .200+ ISO for his career against lefties and he comes cheap at $2,500 for second base eligiblity on DraftKings with three positions open for $2,100 on FanDuel. Jacob Young has projectable stolen base potential and good totals in the minors, he is an inexpensive outfielder to round out stacks but he is a low-priority option with a 73 WRC+ in 30 plate appearances.

Play: Mets bats/stacks, Nationals bats/stacks, minor shares of Quintana value darts are OK but the spot is not good

Update Notes: 

St. Louis Cardinals (+176/4.44) @ Atlanta Braves (-194/6.20)

• Righty Michael Soroka costs $7,100/$7,600 in his sixth start of the season and first since a six-inning outing on July 21st in which he gave up four earned runs while walking two and striking out four of 24 Brewers at Milwaukee. Soroka has worked seven full starts at AAA during the absence from the Braves’ rotation. The team is attempting to thread the needle to limit his service time and avoid the fairly unused righty landing as a free agent after next season. Soroka has worked very strong innings in AAA pitching as a 26-year-old, over 17 total starts and 87 innings, including his earlier appearances, he has a 3.41 ERA and 4.46 xFIP with a 25.9% strikeout rate. With St. Louis in town, Soroka is not carrying a strong projection in this matchup, he has a fair amount of talent for $7,100/$7,600 but just a 17.6% strikeout rate with a 5.34% home run rate on 9.7% barrels in his 29.1 innings at the MLB level. Meanwhile, Atlanta is facing soft-tossing righty Miles Mikolas who has talent on the right night but is an already fairly low-end MLB DFS pitcher with just a 16% strikeout rate and a 4.66 ERA with a 4.72 xFIP this season. Mikolas is very limited on the mound and he is facing the best lineup in baseball, even at $6,500/$6,600 as a wild contrarian value dart he is not looking like a good option. Mikolas and Soroka rank as our bottom two starters on this slate.
• Cardinals bats rank very well on our board today, the team sits third by collective fantasy point projections, second on the FanDuel points-per-dollar value board, and fourth for value on DraftKings, with a fourth-ranked mark for collective home run potential. This game is carrying a 10.5-run implied total that is tied for the highest on the slate. Both teams look like strong options at the plate but the Braves are the heavily favored squad at 6.20 implied runs, St. Louis has a more pedestrian 4.44-run total, but there are talented hitters up and down the deep lineup. Lars Nootbaar has 13 home runs and nine stolen bases with a 9.4% barrel rate while creating runs 30% better than average this season. Paul Goldschmidt has 22 home runs with 10 steals while creating runs 24% better than average in another sound season at the plate. Goldschmidt is down about 50 points from the elite 177 WRC+ he posted last year and his ISO has dipped from .260 to .177 for the season, but his price has been in decline and he is carrying a 9.58 in today’s home run model. If nothing else, Goldschmidt has excellent on-base skills ahead of his powerhouse teammates. Nolan Gorman has a 15.6% barrel rate and 48.4% hard hits with 24 home runs and a .230 ISO on the board in 435 plate appearances, the lefty is fairly priced at $4,400/$2,900 at second or third base on either site. Nolan Arenado is a star third baseman with a 114 WRC+ and 26 home runs with a .210 ISO for $5,200/$3,200, he is highly affordable in this matchup. Willson Contreras has hit 16 home runs while creating runs 19% better than average and carrying a decent .254/.348/.442 slash-line over 454 chances at the plate. Contreras is a high-value catcher for $4,000/$2,700 in the heart of what should just be a better lineup on talent. Tyler O’Neill has eight home runs and a 100 WRC+ in 232 chances this year, he has massive power potential on any given slate and is carrying a 13.1% barrel rate and 45.5% hard hits. Tommy Edman is back to 98 WRC+ and should trend above the waterline again before September ends. The multi-position infielder has 12 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 429 chances and he is cheap at $4,300/$2,900. Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn are rookies at the bottom of the lineup, Winn has done nothing in his 49 plate appearances to this point but Walker has had a good season with a 118 WRC+ over 364 plate appearances.
• Atlanta’s everyday lineup should be in place today with Ronald Acuna Jr. making history with each additional home run and stolen base he adds to his ludicrous tally. The superstar outfielder has 32 home runs and 63 stolen bases and is already the first player to go 30/60 in a season with 40/70 not entirely out of the question. Acuna costs $6,800/$4,800 and is entirely worthwhile. Ozzie Albies is an elite second baseman with 28 home runs and 11 stolen bases for $6,000/$3,700, he has created runs 19% better than average this season. Austin Riley has a 120 WRC+ with 32 home runs on 13.1% barrels and 47.8% hard hits, he is among baseball’s elite third basemen and he costs $5,800/$3,900. Matt Olson is also expensive at $6,400/$4,100, he has 44 home runs and a .315 ISO on 17.2% barrels and 57.2% hard hits while creating runs 50% better than average. Marcell Ozuna is easily affordable on DraftKings at $4,800/$3,700 in the outfield, he has 32 home runs with a .270 ISO and 135 WRC+ in 485 chances. Eddie Rosario has 20 homers, so does catcher Sean Murphy, who has the better ISO at .247 on the season. Rosario has a .218 ISO and also trails Murphy with a 107 WRC+ to the catcher’s elite 141. Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II have been focus hitters from the bottom of the lineup at cheap prices for us all season, nothing changes in this spot with Arcia carrying a 111 WRC+ and Harris at 112 for the season.

Play: Braves bats/stacks, Cardinals bats/stacks.

Update Notes: 

Chicago White Sox (+111/4.61) @ Kansas City Royals (-120/4.99)

• Righty Brady Singer has been up and down this season, following up a strong 2022 with inconsistency. Singer has a 5.15 ERA but a much better 4.21 xFIP on the season but he has a 1.40 WHIP despite walking just seven percent. The righty has a 19.9% strikeout rate which is down from 24.2% last year and 22.4% the season before; his CSW% has dipped but his swinging-strike rate is slightly up at 9.8%. Singer has allowed just a 2.55% home run rate this season while limiting launch angles to an average of just 9.7 degrees and barrels to just eight percent, but he has given up 49.1% hard hits and 91.1 mph of exit velocity so if he makes a location mistake leading to elevated launch he will allow home run power. Singer projects in the middle of the pitching board for $7,900/$8,300 with a good matchup against the scuffling White Sox.
• Tim Anderson has a 59 WRC+ and has been sitting on the same lone home run and 12 stolen bases for weeks. Andrew Benintendi is up to five home runs and 13 stolen bases with a 94 WRC+ in a disappointing season. The two underperforming veterans are bolt-on parts ahead of Luis Robert Jr. who has missed a few games in a row and who would take most of this lineup’s quality with him if he sits again tonight. Robert has 35 home runs with 17 stolen bases and a 135 WRC+ in 532 chances this year. Eloy Jimenez has 15 home runs and has created runs seven percent better than average in another half-season marred by injuries. Yoan Moncada has five homers and has been 17% worse than average for run creation, he was good two years ago with a 122 WRC+ in 616 plate appearances and he is cheap for $3,200/$2,400. Andrew Vaughn has a $2,900/$2,800 price tag with 17 home runs in 521 plate appearances, he is a cheap first baseman with a 46.7% hard-hit rate on the season. Yasmani Grandal has an 82 WRC+ in 379 chances, Oscar Colas is at 49 with only four homers in 248 tries, and Lenyn Sosa closes things out at 39 WRC+ in 125 plate appearances.
• Dylan Cease toes the rubber for Chicago against the fairly low-end Royals lineup tonight. The righty has a 26.5% strikeout rate, a 10.7% walk rate, and 4.91 ERA but 4.27 xFIP in 28 starts in an up-and-down season. Cease costs $8,800/$8,200 with a clear ceiling in this matchup but he is not entirely safe if the walk problems crop up. The righty ranks second overall on our pitching board but he is a member of a somewhat broad tier of similar options that land far below the top spot. Kansas City has a collective 90 WRC+ across the active roster against righties this season and they have posted a 22% strikeout rate with a .165 ISO in the split, this is a targetable club for a fairly good strikeout pitcher on the right night and Cease is an affordably-priced SP1 option on a somewhat limited slate.
• Royals hitters have shown some pop in recent games, there are a few capable bats in the lineup with Maikel Garcia providing speed and a sturdy hit tool at .285/.330/.381 with 20 stolen bases but just a 91 WRC+ in 425 tries. Bobby Witt Jr. is the team’s star shortstop, he has 28 homers and 39 steals in an outstanding season. Witt costs $6,300/$4,200 but everyone else in the stack is inexpensive, which averages the Royals cost down to fair value points. Witt is joined by lefty MJ Melendez who has 13 home runs and a disappointing .158 ISO despite making consistently excellent contact with a 50.6% hard-hit rate and 11.7% barrels. Salvador Perez has 21 home runs after a quick power surge, his overall season is still underwhelming for him, but he remains a strong source of positional power at catcher for just $4,400/$2,500. Michael Massey has 10 home runs but a .134 ISO in 394 chances at the plate, the lefty has a 64 WRC+ on the season. Nelson Velazquez has pounded the ball over 104 plate appearances this season, he is very cheap at $3,100/$3,000 in the outfield given the homer output and a 20.3% barrel rate with 46.4% hard hits in the tiny sample. Velazquez is a very high-strikeout player at 31.9% but he has clear pop from the right side and sits at 5.96 against the stingy Cease. Drew Waters has an 87 WRC+ in 279 chances with eight homers and 11 stolen bases, Matt Beaty has a 94 WRC+ but no power or stolen base output in 69 chances, and Kyle Isbel has a 68 WRC+ over 264 tries at the plate.

Play: Dylan Cease, Brady Singer value

Update Notes:

San Francisco Giants (+118/5.01) @ Chicago Cubs (-128/5.61)

• This is the other game carrying a 10.5-run total in Vegas on tonight’s slate and this one splits more evenly with both teams carrying implied totals above five runs in a tightly projected game. Righty Kyle Hendricks is on the hill for the hometown Cubs. The veteran has been pitching in his typical form with a 3.59 ERA and 4.39 xFIP over 110.1 innings and 19 starts this season. Hendricks has walked just 4.4% but induces only an 8.8% swinging-strike rate while sitting down just 16.2% of hitters he faces. The righty has been good at checking power this season, his 2.40% home run rate comes on just 31.1% hard hits and 85 mph of exit velocity with a 6.4% barrel rate, all of which were higher each of the past two seasons. The Giants’ aggressive free-swingers have fed strong strikeout performances to pitchers of all types this season, Hendricks is showing a bit of upside in our model despite his limited overall output and the hefty run total, he is a value dart for $8,300/$8,100 but there is an aggressive wind blowing out to left that is not helpful to the play tonight.
• Giants hitters are in play given the run total in Vegas and the hitting conditions in Chicago. Leadoff man LaMonte Wade Jr. has declined as the season has progressed, his on-base percentage is down to .369 and he sits at a 117 WRC+ but he has some left-handed pop in his bat with 10% barrels and a 19.6% strikeout rate with a still-strong 14.7% walk rate and 13 homers. Thairo Estrada has 10 home runs and 19 stolen bases with a 103 WRC+ for $4,200/$3,000 at second base on DraftKings and adding shortstop eligibility for more value on the FanDuel slate. Mitch Haniger has four home runs and a lousy triple-slash in 176 chances this season, he has missed most of the year once again but did have 39 home runs the last time he was fully healthy in 2021. Joc Pederson and Mike Yastrzemski have left-handed power, Pederson is at 50.9% hard hits with 12 dingers in 348 plate appearances while creating runs 12% better than average this season and his teammate is at 10% barrels with a 47.4% hard-hit rate and a dozen home runs on the year. Patrick Bailey slots in between the two hard-hitting lefty outfielders, the catcher hits from both sides and he comes cheap at $3,100/$2,300. Bailey had a strong start but has cooled quickly and now sits at 92 WRC+ with seven home runs in 307 chances. JD Davis has 15 home runs and a 99 WRC+ this season, Brandon Crawford has a 62 WRC+ with six home runs in 277 chances in a lousy season, and Wade Meckler rounds things out with a 71 for run creation over his first 61 opportunities. Crawford has a track record of left-handed power and Meckler projects as a mid-range player over time, either is in play as a late-lineup mixer when stacking an abundance of Giants across many lineups.
• The Cubs are facing opener Ryan Walker and left-handed bulk reliever Sean Manaea, probably. Manaea would be the more interesting pitcher, he has a 27.8% strikeout rate in the hybrid role this season but also has a 4.96 ERA with a 4.04 xFIP and a 10.2% walk rate. Manaea typically tries to reach four innings in bulk relief, which gives him a ceiling of around six strikeouts, he is not a FanDuel option at $7,300 and the conditions and run total have him limited in appeal at $5,300 on DraftKings.
• Cubs bats are a good option tonight, they rank sixth by home run potential with a solid mid-board projection and value ranking. Nico Hoerner costs $5,700/$3,500, he has a 102 WRC+ in 588 chances this season and comes at a high price for his skillset despite 36 stolen bases and nine home runs. Dansby Swanson has 19 homers and six stolen bases in a bit of a down season, but he is rarely as popular as he should be and he is a positional asset for $5,100/$3,100 from anywhere in the lineup. Swanson has a 9.10 in the second spot in our home run model tonight. Ian Happ has a 6.48 and Cody Bellinger is second on the team at 9.87, the Cubs have clear power in a highly-totaled game. Happ has created runs 18% better than average with good counting stats of his own, Bellinger has 23 homers and 19 stolen bases with a team-leading 142 WRC+. Seiya Suzuki had a big weekend and sits at 15 home runs with a 114 WRC+ for just $3,500/$2,800 in the outfield tonight. Yan Gomes is a cheap catcher with nine home runs in 344 plate appearances this year. Jeimer Candelario is cheap at $4,400/$3,000, he has 21 homers and a .224 ISO this year and a 7.05 in tonight’s home run model. Patrick Wisdom has an 11.16 in the power column, he has 21 home runs and a .300 ISO this year in just 272 chances but his .200/.288/.500 triple-slash is a mixed bag and his 37.5% strikeout rate is aggressively high. Nick Madrigal is a late lineup mixer here for defense and speed.

Play: Cubs bats/stacks, Giants bats/stacks, Kyle Hendricks in very limited doses

Update Notes:

Houston Astros (-107/4.33) @ Texas Rangers (-101/4.26)

• Texas righty Nathan Eovaldi will be on a tight pitch count in his first appearance since July 18th. Eovaldi has been on the IL with a forearm strain and he has not made a rehab start, he is not anywhere near being an option against Houston at $10,400/$10,000 tonight.
• The Astros are an elite club with stars at several positions, they are showing a fair amount of power in the home run model and they rank fifth by both fantasy points and home run potential. Jose Altuve is pricey but worthwhile in the top spot, the elite second baseman has a .316/.403/.529 slash-line with a .213 ISO and 158 WRC+ on the season, he has hit 12 home runs and stolen 13 bases in only 303 plate appearances. Alex Bregman has 22 homers and a 129 WRC+ with a .180 ISO and slots in for $5,600/$3,600 as a key part of the team stack at third base. Yordan Alvarez is a spectacular hitter for $6,100/$3,900 in the outfield, the lefty has 23 homers and a .271 ISO with a 162 WRC+ this season and he makes elite contact with a 16% barrel rate and 51% hard hits. Kyle Tucker is another left-handed star in the outfield, he has 26 home runs and a matching total for stolen bases while creating runs 38% ahead of the curve. Tucker has a 10.4% barrel rate with a 45.4% hard-hit rate and just a 13.1% strikeout rate. All four of the team’s top hitters strike out below 19% and walk more than 11.5% of the time. Jose Abreu has 12 homers in 503 plate appearances with a 76 WRC+ in a lousy overall season but he has been far more alive at the plate in the second half and costs $3,300/$2,700. Michael Brantley has a 98 WRC+ with a home run on the board in 16 opportunities since his return, he is still cheap at $3,900/$2,900 in the outfield. Chas McCormick adds yet another high-end outfield bat to this DFS lineup, he has 19 home runs and 14 stolen bases with a 142 WRC+ in 378 plate appearances this season. McCormick is fairly priced at $4,700/$3,500. Jeremy Pena and Martin Maldonado round out the projected Astros lineup as mix-in parts.
• The Rangers draw a matchup against Framber Valdez who has scuffled a bit more than we are used to so far this season. Valdez has a 2.36% home run rate which is still an elite mark but is noticeably up from his 1.33% last year and 2.10% the season before. Valdez has allowed a four-degree average launch angle and eight percent barrels, both of which are also substantially up while remaining very good marks overall. The lefty has pushed his strikeout rate back to 24.2% this season and he has a 3.38 ERA and 3.36 xFIP with an 11.4% swinging-strike rate overall, he is still very good on the mound in most starts. Valdez also typically pitches deep into games, he has worked 167.2 innings in 26 starts but he has been shaky since his no-hitter on August 1st. Valdez allowed six earned runs in 7.0 in the follow-up, striking out just three, then he gave up three earned runs but struck out only four Marlins in 7.2 before giving up another six runs with five strikeouts in 5.0 against Seattle. Valdez was excellent against the Tigers last week, working seven clean innings with no hits and six strikeouts, but he walked five hitters in an odd bit of output. He was OK the last time out with five strikeouts and two earned runs in six innings at Boston, a team that provides a similar challenge to what he faces in the Rangers tonight. Valdez is pricey at $10,100/$10,400 but he is one of two true aces on the slate and he projects fourth overall on our board.
• Marcus Semien has a 115 WRC+ with 20 home runs and 13 stolen bases and he provides great correlated scoring potential with a .344 on-base percentage ahead of superstar shortstop Corey Seager. Both infielders can be rostered in stacks of Rangers, alone, or as a duo; they are a very strong pairing but they are big-ticket items. Seager costs $6,500/$4,400 but he delivers regularly with 28 home runs and a .313 ISO while creating runs 82% better than average in his 430 chances at the plate. Nathaniel Lowe has 15 home runs and a stout triple-slash over 617 plate appearances, he has created runs 23% better than average and he remains inexpensive at first base in the heart of the everyday Rangers lineup. Adolis Garcia has 34 long balls with a .252 ISO and 120 WRC+ on the season, he is another pricey but worthy bat in the heart of the lineup. Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim have major power potential at catcher, both or either can be played when stacking this team, and they are capable positional one-offs as well. Robbie Grossman has a 95 WRC+ with eight home runs in a limited 359 plate appearances, Ezequiel Duran has talent and fills three positions for $2,700 on FanDuel, he is less valuable as a $3,800 third baseman on DraftKings. Leody Taveras has dipped to 94 WRC+ but he has a decent triple-slash and moderate ability to chalk up counting stats.

Play: Astros bats/stacks, Framber Valdez, Rangers bats/stacks in small doses

Update Notes:

Baltimore Orioles (-160/4.80) @ Los Angeles Angels (+147/3.80)

• Lefty Reid Detmers has a 5.01 ERA and 4.35 xFIP on the season but he has struck out 26.2% of opposing hitters with a 12.7% swinging-strike rate. Detmers has allowed a 3.31% home run rate on 16.2 degrees of launch on average but just 5.9% barrels. The lefty has walked too many at 9.8% and he allows a lot of premium contact with 42.4% hard hits and 90.2 mph of exit velocity. Detmers has been fairly shaky of late, he has made four starts in his last seven that have lasted 4.0 or fewer innings, and he has been giving up power and runs in the stretch while strikeouts have been more limited. For $7,600/$7,100 the lefty has a clear upside, but the matchup against the Orioles is not great, he projects in the middle of the pitching pool as a playable value option.
• Catcher Adley Rutschman slots in for $5,200/$3,100, he has 17 home runs and a .151 ISO with a 120 WRC+ in an outstanding season behind the plate. Rutschman is one of the most high-value catchers in MLB DFS at $5,200/$3,100. Anthony Santander is a switch-hitter with premium power, he has 26 home runs this year with a good shot at back-to-back seasons with more than 30 and he sits 21% better than average for run creation but never goes up in price on one of the sites. Santander costs just $4,500/$3,800 and is very cheap for his talent on DraftKings. Ryan Mountcastle is a power-hitting first baseman with a 45.6% hard-hit rate and 12.8% barrel rate, he has 18 home runs and a .195 ISO this season. Austin Hays slots into the projected cleanup spot, he costs $4,900/$2,800 with 13 home runs and a 114 WRC+ this season. Gunnar Henderson has had a star-making season in the infield, he fills both shortstop and third base on both sites for $5,500/$3,300 with 23 home runs and nine stolen bases on the board and he has created runs 21% better than average while posting a .228 ISO on 10.8% barrels and a team-leading 54.2% hard-hit rate. Righty Jordan Westburg is another highly-regarded young hitter in the infield, he fills second or third base on DraftKings and slots in at third or shortstop on FanDuel for $3,500/$2,400. Westburg has a solid .270/.315/.411 triple-slash in 178 plate appearances with two homers and four stolen bases. Aaron Hicks is projected to return to the lineup for $2,500/$2,400 with seven home runs in 239 chances this season, Ryan McKenna has a pair of homers and five steals but a 91 WRC+, and Jorge Mateo has been lousy for most of the season with a 63 WRC+.
• Dean Kremer has a 21.2% strikeout rate over 150 innings in 27 starts this season. The young starter has posted a 4.20 ERA and 4.37 xFIP with a 10.1% swinging-strike rate and a 4.12% home run rate allowed. The power comes on the back of a 9.6% barrel rate and 42.3% hard hits with a 90.5 mph exit velocity on an average of 13.4 degrees of launch. Kremer is a good mid-level pitcher with room to grow, he has made strides this season and checks in for $8,600/$9,000 with a mid-board projection against an Angels lineup that has a few deadly power bats but also is without Shohei Ohtani in the projected version and has plenty of strikeouts for the young starter to hunt. Kremer is not off the board on either site.
• Nolan Schanuel costs $3,400/$2,900, the 2023 draft pick has a .277/.433/.298 slash line with a 120 WRC+ over his first 60 plate appearances in the Show, he arrived fully formed out of college. Brandon Drury has 20 home runs and a .219 ISO with a 108 WRC+ from the right side this season. The power hitter slots into first or second base on both sites for $4,500/$3,300 tonight, he has an 8.43 in our home run model. Luis Rengifo has a 5.23 in the home run model with 15 on the board this season but he is preferable when he lands later in the lineup as a sneaky power option rather than a focus-hitter in the three spot. Mike Moustakas has come back to life a bit with 12 home runs but a .162 ISO with an 88 WRC+ this season. Logan O’Hoppe has six homers but a lousy triple-slash over 110 chances, his .208 ISO is appealing as a cheap low-owned catcher play. Mickey Moniak has cooled to .278/.305/.492 with a 112 WRC+ but he has 13 home runs in 311 plate appearances from the left side and leads the team at 8.91 in the home run model if Ohtani sits. Randal Grichuk has 13 homers and a 97 WRC+ with a healthy slash-line in the outfield, Trey Cabbage has projected power in his bat, and Kyren Paris rounds out the lineup with a 61 WRC+ in just 15 plate appearances, the final two are mix-in hitters in stacks of Angels in a mid-level spot, the team suffers as a whole without their stars.

Play: Reid Detmers value, Dean Kremer, Orioles bats/stacks

Update Notes:

Toronto Blue Jays (-175/4.61) @ Oakland Athletics (+160/3.48)

• We are relatively sure that lefty Ken Waldichuk is actually starting this one after he was bumped by Luis Medina over the weekend. The southpaw has a 5.92 ERA with a 5.14 xFIP and 21.6% strikeouts but 12.1% walks on the season. Waldichuk has a bit of talent on the mound on the right day but he is not trustworthy in this spot against a hard-hitting Toronto team that has underperformed the season as a whole. Waldichuk projects fourth from the bottom of the pitching pool for $5,800/$6,900, it is difficult to envision even passing success as a value dart in this spot but at least the prices are correct for that attempted needle-thread.
• Blue Jays hitters are ranked just 13th on the projections board with a matching mark for home run potential in a pitcher’s park and Vegas seems to agree by keeping them at just a 4.61-run total against Waldichuk. There is plenty of power in the Toronto lineup, Davis Schneider is slotted between George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the top of the lineup, any of the trio of righties could take Waldichuk over the fence tonight. Springer has 17 homers and 19 stolen bases with a 105 WRC+ in a down season overall but one that has not been awful for MLB DFS purposes when he falls at just a $4,700/$3,400 price. Schneider has hit six quick home runs in his 73 chances at the plate, he has a .441 ISO and 258 WRC+ in the tiny sample and he is the team’s most expensive hitter on FanDuel at a whopping $3,900. DraftKings has maintained more sanity, Schneider slots into second or third base on the site for $4,600. Guerrero has 21 homers and a 117 WRC+ but just a .172 ISO, he has a 9.37 in the home run model and looks like a fair play for power and run creation in this matchup. Whit Merrifield is not your typical cleanup hitter but that is where we find him in the projected lineup. Merrifield has good bat-to-ball skills with a solid on-base percentage, moderate power with 11 home runs, and good speed with 25 stolen bases, he can keep the lineup moving or create runs on his own, and he has a 103 WRC+ in 532 chances. Alejandro Kirk has six homers with a 93 WRC+ in 345 chances. Ernie Clement is cheap at $2,400/$2,200, Daulton Varsho has 16 home runs and 15 stolen bases with an 82 WRC+ in 513 plate appearances in a down season by comparison to last year, and Santiago Espinal rounds out the lineup with Kevin Kiermaier as affordable mix-ins.
• Right-handed veteran Chris Bassitt has a 3.81 ERA and 4.46 xFIP in 165.1 innings and 28 starts this season. The roller-coaster righty has allowed a 3.62% home run rate and 9.1% barrels but just 35.4% hard hits and 87.5 mph of exit velocity. Bassitt has had a series of shaky starts, none were total disasters but several three and four-run performances take the gleam off of his DFS output of late and he peaks in the six-to-seven strikeout zone in most outings, he has a 21.9% strikeout rate for the season. For $9,700/$9,300, Bassitt ranks second overall on our projections board on a fairly light day for pitching, he has a terrific matchup against the Athletics.
• Lefty Tony Kemp is a low-end outfield option for $2,900/$2,700, he has a .312 on-base percentage with an 81 WRC+ and has stolen 12 bases this season. Zack Gelof has clear talent, he has hit 10 home runs and stolen 10 bases since his debut 196 plate appearances ago. Gelof has a .258 ISO and 135 WRC+ with an 11.6% barrel rate for $5,200/$3,600 at second base. Ryan Noda has good skills with the bat with a 13.3% barrel rate and 47.7% hard hits in 397 chances, he has 14 home runs and a .383 on-base percentage to support his 135 WRC+. Brent Rooker is up to 23 home runs on the season with a .222 ISO and 120 WRC+, the power-hitting trio makes the top end of the Athletics lineup look almost appealing. Seth Brown is a member of that club as well, he has 13 home runs in 315 opportunities with a 12.7% barrel rate and 46.1% hard hits this year. Jordan Diaz has 10 homers in 235 chances as a cheap infield option, Shea Langeliers is a cheap catcher with an 11.6% barrel rate and 43.7% hard hits leading to 16 home runs this year, Lawrence Butler has a 15.1% barrel rate with four home runs in 71 tries, and Nick Allen checks in at 48 WRC+ in 259 chances.

Play: Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays bats/stacks

Update Notes:

Colorado Rockies (+186/3.74) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-205/5.38)

• Lefty Kyle Freeland is a low-end option against the low-strikeout hard-hitting Diamondbacks who check in with a 5.38-run implied total in the matchup. Freeland has a 14.5% strikeout rate with a 5.18 ERA and 5.11 xFIP and he has allowed a monster 4.57% home run rate on 9.3% barrels. Freeland costs $5,500/$6,000 but he is not a good option in this matchup.
• Ketel Marte lands atop the Diamondbacks lineup with a lefty on the mound, though the team may not push Corbin Carroll down lineup against this particular lefty. Marte has 21 home runs and a .201 ISO as a strong second base option. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham have good power, Gurriel has 22 home runs and Pham has hit 13 while adding 17 stolen bases, they are both inexpensive at $3,800/$3,000 and $3,500/$2,800 in the outfield. Christian Walker has 30 home runs with eight stolen bases and a 132 WRC+ that sits second on the team. Walker is a top-notch first baseman with power and excellent bat-to-ball skills, he has a 19% strikeout rate with an 11.6% barrel rate and comes cheap at $4,500/$3,600. Evan Longoria slots between Walker and Carroll in the projected lineup, the veteran third baseman has blasted 11 home runs in just 203 chances and has a .232 ISO with excellent upside against the lousy lefty. Carroll has 24 homers and 41 stolen bases with a .244 ISO and 138 WRC+ in a terrific rookie season, he is a big ticket item in the outfield at $5,800/$4,000 and suffers against lefties, but Freeland is easily gettable in this spot. Gabriel Moreno is a productive catcher, he has a 101 WRC+ with seven home runs for $2,700/$2,300. Nick Ahmed and Emmanuel Rivera round out the projected lineup with a 21 and 30 WRC+.
• Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt is a point of debate around the industry today. Pfaadt took a step forward in August, he had a 24.3% strikeout rate with a 4.04 xFIP for the month, the strongest of his season, but he failed to close August well in a clunker against the Dodgers on the 31st. Pfaadt struck out only four while walking two, allowing two home runs, and giving up five earned runs on eight hits in just four innings. The Rockies are by no means the Dodgers at the plate, they have been baseball’s worst team for run creation despite playing half of their games in Coors Field this season, but Pfaadt has worked to just a 6.21 ERA and 4.74 xFIP over 71 innings and 14 starts total this season. The young righty has a 20.6% strikeout rate with a 7.1% walk rate that would be OK were it not for his aggressively bad 5.47% home run rate and 45.3% hard hits with an 11.7% barrel rate on 18.8 degrees of launch. As a deciding factor, our pitching model that managed to find upside for Pfaadt in a few of his good starts is not liking the righty for quality in this matchup for indeterminate reasons. Pfaad ranks third from the bottom in our pitching projections tonight but there is a clear path to value and success at just $6,900/$7,300 in the spectacular matchup. Pfaadt’s popularity will be a key factor in deciding how he should be rostered tonight, if the public is getting there as much as we expect, an undercut to access other similar or better value plays seems in order.
• Colorado bats are a low-end stack every day of the week, even at Coors Field this team has been mostly lousy all season. Charlie Blackmon has a .378 on-base percentage and a 112 WRC+ over 325 chances at the plate this season, he has managed seven home runs but is more of a correlated scoring option at this point. Ezequiel Tovar has 15 chap home runs and eight stolen bases in 518 rookie plate appearances but just a 75 WRC+ on the year. Ryan McMahon has good lefty power at the plate and an 8.73 in tonight’s home run model with 22 in the books and a .203 ISO on the year. Elias Diaz is a good catcher option with 13 home runs and an 82 WRC+, Nolan Jones has 14 home runs and 11 stolen bases from the left side in just 314 rookie plate appearances. Jones has created runs 19% better than average in the mid-sized sample since winning a fulltime job in the Show but he costs just $4,500/$3,300 and adds first base to his outfield eligibility on the blue site. Hunter Goodman hit for major power this season across two levels of the minors, he has zero home runs but a .208 ISO and 146 WRC+ in 27 chances so far in the Show. Michael Toglia and Brenton Doyle have power potential at the plate but they are both well below the Mendoza line for the season.

Play: Diamondbacks bats/stacks, Brandon Pfaadt value darts but we would look to undercut public popularity if he gains it

Update Notes:

Philadelphia Phillies (+101/4.49) @ San Diego Padres (-109/4.61)

• Righty Pedro Avila checks in for $6,300/$6,700 with a lower-middle projection on the pitching board. Avila has thrown 30.1 innings in three starts and a few relief appearances, posting a 2.67 ERA and 3.28 xFIP with a 27.2% strikeout rate in a solid performance, but he is yet to complete the fifth inning. Avila worked three innings his last time out, giving up six runs to 19 hitters in three innings, but only one of the runs was charged to him and he struck out five in the brief outing. Avila went 4.1 and faced 20 hitters with four strikeouts but allowed five earned runs in the outing against the Brewers in a full start prior to that performance, he has been mixed quality at best and the innings are highly unreliable with a good Phillies lineup in town. Avila has Philadelphia checked to just 4.49 implied runs but we prefer the Phillies bats to the uncertain projection.
• Kyle Schwarber has a massive 21 in our home run model with 40 long balls on the season, he is our overall home run pick of the day against Avila in this spot. Schwarber has a 16% barrel rate with 48.6% hard hits and he has created runs 18% better than average on the season. Trea Turner has a 42% hard-hit rate with 22 home runs and 25 stolen bases and is up to a 103 WRC+ in a season that suddenly does not look half-bad. Turner is a $5,900/$3,900 option at shortstop, the sites are on to his turnaround. Bryce Harper costs $6,200/$4,100, the Phillies star has 15 home runs and a 135 WRC+ in 450 chances this year and he is carrying a 14.2% barrel rate that sits second to Schwarber in the lineup. Nick Castellanos has 22 homers in 579 chances, he has created runs five percent better than average and has cooled somewhat at the plate but overall he has been a rock for Philadelphia this season. Castellanos costs $5,100/$3,400 in the outfield tonight and he has a 10.75 in the home run model to sit second on the team. Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, JT Realmuto, and Brandon Marsh could hit 1-4 on many teams in baseball, they are a highly talented and productive group of hitters. Stott has 14 homers and 26 stolen bases, Bohm has hit 16 long balls and created runs 11% better than average, Realmuto is a leading catcher with 17 home runs and 13 steals, and Marsh has created runs seven percent ahead of the curve with nine home runs and eight steals. Jake Cave rounds out the lineup with an 81 WRC+ in 159 plate appearances.
• Righty Michael Lorenzen has a 3.73 ERA and 4.53 xFIP with a limited 18.7% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in 23 starts and 137.2 innings this season. Lorenzen has allowed a 3.09% home run rate with a 40.4% hard-hit rate and 90.2 mph of exit velocity, but he has been a bit of a mess in three starts since his no-hitter in his second start with the Phillies who may have pushed their deadline acquisition too far at first. Lorenzen worked 8.0 innings in his debut and 9.0 in the no-hitter, he had not worked beyond the seventh all season though he did have several seven-inning starts. Lorenzen has given up six, four, and three earned runs, with five total homers allowed in his last three starts, he struck out one, four, and five in those outings and did not deliver for MLB DFS purposes while working 3.1, 5.2, and 6.0 innings. At $9,000/$8,500 with a mid-board projection, Lorenzen is a playable option in a relatively tough spot against the top of the Padres lineup.
• Ha-Seong Kim has 17 homers and 31 steals and he checks in for just $4,900/$3,100 with triple-position eligibility on the blue site but is just a second baseman on DraftKings. Kim has a .365 on-base percentage ahead of the elite core of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto who have combined for 50 home runs with Tatis adding 25 stolen bases and creating runs 18% better than average overall. Soto is 47% better than average for run creation and he gets on at a .400 clip with an 18.9% walk rate that matches his strikeout rate. Manny Machado is two behind Soto’s pace with 26 home runs, Soto leads the team with 28, the third baseman costs $5,300/$3,500 and slots in easily at a bit of a discount for his talent. Xander Bogaerts has created runs nine percent better than average and he is bouncing upward again. Bogaerts is slashing .266/.337/.406 with 16 home runs and 14 steals as a good piece of value for $4,800/$2,900 at shortstop. Garrett Cooper has a 4.47 in our home run model with 15 inexpensive dingers in the books this season and a .168 ISO. Luis Campusano is a playable catcher with a solid triple-slash in his 114 opportunities, he has five home runs and has created runs 29% better than average and costs just $3,000/$2,500. Matthew Batten and Trent Grisham slot in as mixers late in the lineup for cheap prices. Batten has been good with two homers and a 147 WRC+ in his first 53 chances and he should hit at this level, Grisham has had an OK season at 91 WRC+ with 12 homers and 13 steals.

Play: Phillies bats/stacks, Padres bats/stacks, Michael Lorenzen as a mid-level option

Update Notes:

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