Welcome to 10-game Tuesday, MLB DFS fans. The loaded slate has a fascinating mix of opportunities for offense as well as very high-quality pitching selections at a range of prices tonight, allowing a dynamic ability to mix and match combinations of premium hitters and stacks. Several star-caliber starters land at or near the top of the board today, including the Angels’ two-way superstar, which means the Los Angeles lineup sees a downgrade at the plate, but they are facing the league’s most talented pitcher at suppressing home run upside anyway, so this is the right day for Ohtani to be missing from stacks. The Yankees will get their superstar back, he is outpacing everyone in our home run model by a wide margin, to such a degree that it would have been irresponsible to not make him our home run pick for the day in his return to action. There are several other premium spots for power hitting, including what could turn into a slugfest in Minnesota if our model is accurate tonight. This is a great slate on which to spread out shares and embrace the game’s inherent variance.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 5/9/23
Oakland Athletics (+221/3.53) @ New York Yankees (-246/5.60)
The good ship Rooker and all its crew (you should be hearing the famous “iceberg right ahead” line from Titanic in your head right now) will be in the Bronx again tonight, as the Athletics are facing right-handed Yankees hurler Clarke Schmidt. The primary obstacle that is facing Schmidt right now is his average depth of start, he is not typically given much leash by quick-trigger Manager Aaron Boone, who likes to get into his bullpen immediately after his starters get into trouble in the fourth, fifth, or sixth inning, and rarely before. Flawed management aside, Schmidt has been largely effective in his seven starts and 29.1 innings, pitching to a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 4.03 xFIP that is obscured by an ugly 5.83 ERA. The righty’s problems have cropped up around premium contact, he has allowed a massive 51.6% hard-hit rate with 92.7 mph of average exit velocity and a 12.9% barrel rate that amounted to a 5.0% home run rate to this point. Schmidt has yielded too much power, but there are only a few bats for him to duck in this opposing lineup and he has been in good strikeout form with a 10.9% swinging-strike rate and 27% CSW%. Schmidt costs just $6,000 on DraftKings in a start against the Athletics. The hitting conditions on a warm day in Yankee Stadium are not ideal, but this is one of the worst lineups in baseball and the pitcher has a bit of potential at that price as an SP2. On FanDuel, the righty costs $8,200 which makes him a bit more of a value question mark, but should also keep more of the public at bay. Schmidt is in play in different scenarios around the industry. The Athletics have just a 3.53-run implied team total, most of the run-scoring weight lands on the other side of this contest. Those who are intrigued by chasing the premium contact that Schmidt has been allowing should look to lefty Ryan Noda, who has a 3.87 in our home run model and three on the board with a .209 ISO in 109 plate appearances, out of the second spot in the lineup. Noda is slated to hit between speedster Esteury Ruiz who now has 17 stolen bases with a .340 on-base percentage and a 104 WRC+ in 154 plate appearances, and Brent Rooker, who has six hits in 32 plate appearances with one home run and 11 strikeouts while slashing .231/.375/.432 with a .798 OPS in seven games since the calendar flipped to May. Rooker may well find premium contact against Schmidt, but he is likely to strike out several times and put another hole in this lineup. JJ Bleday is slashing .364/.391/.682 with a 200 WRC+ in his 23 plate appearances, with two home runs on the board. Bleday is a 25-year-old lefty with moderate power grades in traditional scouting. He is not a ranked prospect, but he did manage seven home runs in 119 plate appearances in AAA to start this season and he had 25 combined across 367 AAA and 238 MLB plate appearances last season. Bleday is a reasonably sneaky power option as a lefty in Yankee Stadium. Shea Langeliers costs $3,600 where catchers are important, he has six home runs in 118 plate appearances this year. Tony Kemp and Jesus Aguilar provide veteran bats capable of taking a pitcher deep from the projected sixth and seventh spots in the lineup. Aguilar is better against lefties but has five home runs and a .202 ISO with a 116 WRC+ overall, Kemp has just a 63 WRC+ with one home run and a .076 ISO in 120 plate appearances. Jace Peterson and Nick Allen round out the lineup, Peterson is the more appealing of the two, he has one home run and four stolen bases, but neither has done anything noteworthy this season.
The Yankees are in a prime position on a warm day in the New York area with Oakland righty Drew Rucinski on the mound and Aaron Judge returning to the outfield, and more importantly, the plate. The Yankees lineup has been putrid in the absence of Judge for the last two weeks, the slugger does everything for this team’s offense. Even in a slow start to his season, Judge was creating runs 34% better than average with a .250 ISO while slashing .261/.352/.511 in his 108 plate appearances. He is carrying a slate-leading 19.22 in our home run model against Rucinski today. The Athletics’ righty is filling a rotation spot until more kids in the system are ready for action, largely because no one else wanted to pitch for this team. Rucinski pitched in Korea and was a KBO star for the NC Dinos, but the KBO plays roughly like AA baseball in a lot of ways, in his two starts and 9.1 innings in the Show this season, Rucinski has a 6.47 xFIP with a 7.71 ERA, a 12.8% walk rate, and a 2.25 WHIP while striking out just 8.5% in the tiny sample. Rucinski is not a Major League caliber pitcher at this point, Judge and the rest of the Yankees should be in a position to beat him up a bit this evening. With Judge in the second spot in the lineup, leadoff man Anthony Volpe should see an uptick in value, if he can manage to get on base with regularity. The rookie is slashing .205/.307/.320 while creating runs 20% below average. Volpe is cheap at $4,200/$2,700 for a player who has individual mid-range power, tons of speed, and who correlates so directly with Judge. Anthony Rizzo slots in with more protection in the lineup and is pulling down the second-highest mark in our home run model. The lefty first baseman is a terrific bat, he has a terrific hit tool, gets on base, and has regularly been above 30 home runs season after season throughout his career. Rizzo has a 13.35 in our home run model and he is still too cheap at $4,500/$3,100. DJ LeMahieu hit a home run last night, he now has four on the season with a .183 ISO while creating runs 23% better than average in his 128 plate appearances. LeMahieu is somewhat miscast as a cleanup hitter, but his bat is capable enough to fill that role until Giancarlo Stanton returns to further shore up this lineup. LeMahieu has a 7.2% barrel rate with a top-notch 53% hard-hit rate, he can drive the ball for run creation purposes and he hits occasional home runs. Similar things could be said about Gleyber Torres, but LeMahieu has the better overall hit tool of the two infielders. Torres slots in fifth, he has five home runs and five stolen bases so far this season while slashing .250/.343/.444 with a .194 ISO and creating runs 19% better than average. Right-handed outfielder Harrison Bader has abused left-handed pitching early in his return to action this season, he should be a good fit against a very weak right-handed starter tonight as well. Over his 22 plate appearances so far this season, Bader has a pair of home runs and has created runs 41% better than average. The toolsy speedy outfielder has also tripled twice in the tiny sample, though he has yet to steal a base he has definite upside in that arena as well. Bader is a good buy at just $3,600/$3,000. Jake Bauers slots in as a left-handed bat late in the lineup. Bauers has a home run on the board in his 11 opportunities this year, he hit four in 315 tries in 2021 and did not play in the Majors last year. Kyle Higashioka is our preferred Yankees catcher for MLB DFS purposes because he pounds the ball when he makes contact. Higashioka has two home runs and just a .188/.235/.333 triple-slash while creating runs 45% worse than average in his limited action, but he has a 19.4% barrel rate and 58.1% hard-hit rate that were 9.8% and 48.1% in a sample of 248 plate appearances last year. Higashioka is rarely popular and he is a sneaky power hitter in the catcher role for just $2,700/$2,300 when everything comes together correctly. Oswaldo Cabrera hit one out yesterday, he now has two home runs and a .107 ISO for the season while creating runs 55% worse than average and slashing .204/.236/.311, he remains a mix-and-match piece at the bottom of the lineup.
Play: Yankees stacks/bats, Clarke Schmidt
Update Notes: The Athletics lineup is confirmed in its expected form, the Yankees are giving DJ LeMahieu a day off just to weaken their lineup for one more day. The top half remains strong and runs Volpe-Judge-Rizzo-Torres-Bader-Bauers-Cabrera-Jose Trevino–Aaron Hicks. Trevino is a downgrade where we expected Higashioka, Hicks might as well be an empty uniform crumpled in the batter’s box for all the good he does at the plate.
Boston Red Sox (+161/4.35) @ Atlanta Braves (-177/5.78)
The surging Red Sox are in Atlanta to face Charlie Morton, a veteran righty that most MLB DFS gamers probably know very well, for better or worse. Morton has had a long excellent career, but he comes with roller coaster performances, including at the outset of the 2023 season. The veteran has just a 20.8% strikeout rate in 34.2 innings and six starts so far this season, pitching to a 3.38 ERA but a 4.68 xFIP that betrays his true quality. His 9.7% walk rate is up by exactly one percentage point from last year, which was up exactly one percentage point from 2021’s 7.7%. Accordingly, the pitcher’s WHIP has gone from 1.04 in 2021 to 1.23 last year and is now sitting at an unsightly 1.44. If Morton is allowing that many opportunities without his strikeout upside, he loses most of his appeal. The veteran has been good at keeping power in check so far this season, limiting home runs to just 1.95% with 88.8 mph of average exit velocity on a 5.9-degree average launch angle. Morton has not been truly bad this season, his worst outing saw him allow just four runs to the Mets in his last start, during which he struck out six and walked three. Prior to that he had given up one run in each of his two previous starts, striking out five Padres then nine Marlins, and he had completed six innings twice and went seven in the start against Miami. The Mets start lasted 5.1 innings and Morton has yet to pitch less than a full five innings, he is typically in play for the win and sometimes the quality start bonus, but the lack of strikeouts has become a bit of a concern with a swinging-strike rate dropping from 12.2% to 10.5% and his CSW% dipping from 30.6% to 28.3% in early returns. At $8,900/$9,700 Morton is certainly not off the board but he may also not be as good as one might think in this spot against Boston. The Red Sox will run a chorus line of left-handed bats up to the plate this evening, beginning with excellent leadoff hitter Alex Verdugo who is slashing .307/.379/.504 with a 139 WRC+, five home runs, and three stolen bases. Verdugo is striking out at just a 13.1% clip this year, he was at 13.4% last season, he is very good at putting the ball in play and has a chance to frustrate Morton several times. This is an attribute shared, or perhaps topped, by Mastaka Yoshida, who should be hitting second tonight. Yoshida has been the best hitter on the Red Sox for the last few weeks, he is now slashing .321/.403/.536 with a .214 ISO and six home runs while creating runs 55% better than average. The former NPB star is striking out at an absurd 8.5% rate and walking 10.1% of the time, he has a 9.8% barrel rate and a 48% hard-hit rate for $5,300/$3,700, which is arguably too cheap. The trend of avoiding strikeouts continues with Justin Turner, who is at a 13.4% rate so far this year and was at 16.7% for all of last season. Turner has a 14.9% strikeout rate for his career, which began in full in 2011, to go with a .288/.365/.463 triple slash and 128 WRC+. Turner has been a very good player for a very long time, he is slashing .265/.357/.360 with two home runs so far this season and costs just $3,500 at first base on DraftKings and $2,800 with first and third base eligibility on FanDuel. Turner is a premium low-cost hitter to include in this stack, he is not who he once was at the plate, but he is nowhere near finished and makes a great correlated scoring play. Rafael Devers has 11 home runs and is slashing .250/.301/.550 with a .300 ISO, he as a better hitter last year at .295/.358/.521 but that should return soon enough and he is mashing the ball when he makes contact. Devers has a 14.4% barrel rate and a 51.4% hard-hit rate this season and he strikes out just 20.3% of the time (18.6% last year). For $5,800/$4,100 Devers could be considered a bit of a bargain at third base. Jarren Duran and Triston Casas are having very different starts to their seasons. Duran is slashing .366/.413/.606 with a .239 ISO and 172 WRC+ in 80 plate appearances, while the big first base prospect is at .163/.295/.326 with four home runs, a .163 ISO, and a 71 WRC+. The team recalled Bobby Dalbec yesterday, but he is not likely to replace Casas in the everyday lineup just yet. Dalbec would be interesting for a sneaky cheap power upside if he plays a role somewhere tonight, he has the skills to play multiple positions on the field. Emmanuel Valdez, Enrique Hernandez, and Reese McGuire round out the projected lineup, Connor Wong would be our preferred catcher play for MLB DFS hitting upside.
The Braves are flashing top-5 power on the home run board tonight, the loaded squad is facing righty Nick Pivetta, who is a bit better than a league-average starter for his career, but not all that much better. Pivetta had a 22.6% strikeout rate with a 4.56 ERA and a 4.26 xFIP in 33 starts last year, he put up a 26.5% strikeout rate with a 4.53 ERA and 4.28 xFIP in 2021. This year, Pivetta has a 25.4% strikeout rate with a 4.99 ERA and 4.48 xFIP in six starts and 30.2 innings. There is something to be said for consistent mediocrity when it comes to pitching, but problems pop up for the starter when it comes to power. Pivetta has given up a 5.22% home run rate this season on 51.2% hard hits and an unsustainable 17.4% barrel rate with 92.5 mph of average exit velocity. Even for a pitcher who has never been good at limiting premium contact, those are somewhat staggering numbers. He had a 3.85% home run rate on a 9.5% barrel, 42.1% hard-hit, and 89.3 mph of average exit velocity last year and was at a 3.63% home run rate on an 8.2% barrel, 40.1% hard-hits, and 89.7 mph of average exit velocity in 2021. Pivetta is more of a target for Braves bats, he could certainly pitch a clean six innings and find a handful of strikeouts along the way and he is cheap at $7,200/$8,400, there is just enough leg for the play to stand on, but it is wobbly and we would not back it in a dance-off. Ronald Acuna Jr. costs $6,500/$4,600, he has created runs 65% better than average while hitting six home runs and stealing 15 bases this year, he has a 14.9% barrel rate, a 53.5% hard-hit rate, he strikes out just 14.4% of the time and walks 13.1%, and he is slashing .338/.431/.551 with a .213 ISO. If you are not sold on Acuna at this point at any price you never will be. Matt Olson costs $5,700/$4,200 and is having a similarly productive season. The left-handed first baseman is pulling in a team-leading 12.45 in our home run model, he has 10 in his ledger for the season already with a .284 ISO and a 140 WRC+ while generating an 18.8% barrel rate and a 48.8% hard-hit. Austin Riley is discounted slightly at $5,500/$3,500, the price is better on FanDuel. Riley is a star third baseman with tons of power, he has six home runs this season but has dipped in productivity overall during a bit of a sustained slump the last few weeks. The right-handed masher’s ISO has gone from .255 last year to just .172 in early returns this season, and his WRC+ has followed it, dropping from 142 to just 103. Riley will figure this out, for now, it makes sense to take the minor discount and continue clicking the player into Braves stacks frequently. Sean Murphy has a ridiculous 24% barrel rate and a 46.7% hard-hit for the season, with nine home runs and a .340 ISO, he is the best power hitter at his position for $5,200/$3,900. Eddie Rosario slots in with three home runs but an 88 WRC+ and .160 ISO, he is a cheap useable piece in Braves stacks who can drive the ball and helps offset the popularity and price of his teammates. Ozzie Albies is a star second baseman who is never treated like one. He costs $4,500/$3,500 later in the lineup yet he has nine home runs on the board with a .261 ISO and 127 WRC. Albies is always a viable option in Braves stacks, he is always too cheap and typically goes under-owned. Marcell Ozuna hits the ball hard in the rare event that he makes contact, he has a 13.1% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit in his 95 plate appearances and has turned the contact into six home runs and a .232 ISO while failing to do much of anything else at the dish. Ozuna has a 71 WRC+ while slashing .146/.263/.378. Michael Harris II has a home run with three stolen bases in 51 plate appearances and is finding his form after missing most of the season with an injury. Harris is too cheap at $3,800/$3,000, there is a significant ceiling on the outfielder for that price. Orlando Arcia rounds out the confirmed lineup, he is slashing .327/.389/.510 with a pair of home runs in 54 plate appearances and he hit nine home runs with a 104 WRC+ and .172 ISO in just 234 opportunities last year.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Red Sox bats/stacks, maybe some Charlie Morton in small doses
Update Notes: the Braves lineup is confirmed in the original draft. The Red Sox lineup is as expected.
Chicago White Sox (-142/4.93) @ Kansas City Royals (+131/4.17)
Right-handed veteran starter Jordan Lyles is looking like a bit of a target for White Sox bats tonight. Lyles has a 6.69 ERA with a 6.02 xFIP over 40.1 innings in seven starts this year and he has struck out just 16.8% of opposing hitters. The righty had a 4.42 ERA and a 4.40 xFIP with an 18.6% strikeout rate in 32 starts and 179 innings last year and a 5.15 ERA with a 4.73 xFIP in 180 innings the year before, he is here primarily to eat innings for a lousy Kansas City pitching staff. Lyles is not much of an option for MLB DFS even at $6,200/$7,400, but he could be deployed in small doses as a cheap low-owned SP2 with “six clean and a win” as his absolute ceiling. The White Sox lineup looks like the better side of the equation here, Chicago has not been good but they have good players. Tim Anderson and Andrew Benintendi are a dynamite duo to lead off a lineup when they are going right. They are both very difficult to strike out, last season Anderson had a 15.7% strikeout rate and Benintendi was at just 14.8%, this year they are at 22.2% and 15.4% in the small sample, and both are well below average with 78 and 77 WRC+ marks in early returns. Anderson has missed time, he has made just 81 plate appearances and has five stolen bases to his credit, Benintendi has been here for 136 plate appearances and is slashing a disappointing .270/.324/.325 with a .056 ISO and four stolen bases but no power. The outfielder has a 2.9% barrel rate and 25.7% hard-hit rate, he was never one for driving the ball but this is a major blackout even for him. Andrew Vaughn is another hitter who is difficult to strike out, he is now slashing .246/.342/.418 with a 112 WRC+ and three home runs while striking out 20.6% of the time, he struck out just 17.3% last season. Vaughn has made sturdy, if not steady, contact this season with a 9.7% barrel rate and 47.6% hard hit, yet he costs just $3,100/$3,200 at first base. The slugger leads his team with an 11.01 in our home run model and looks like a good buy in the heart of the White Sox lineup. Luis Robert Jr. and Gavin Sheets land at 10.65 and 10.29 in our home run model, Robert has seven on the year and left-handed sheets has four, they come at cheap $4,600/$3,000 and $2,500/$2,600 price tags, the White Sox are easy to afford on both sites tonight. After Sheets things get a bit dicey, Yasmani Grandal is a capable catcher with the bat in his hands, he has three home runs and a 119 WRC+ this season and would be our last bat of choice in this lineup. Hanser Alberto is playable but not great for MLB DFS for a cheap price, Elvis Andrus is a desperation option, and Seby Zavala rounds out the projected lineup. The White Sox top-6 is the focus, there is upside for power and run creation with MLB DFS point-scoring against Lyles tonight.
The Pale Hose have Lucas Giolito on the bump tonight. The righty has been just OK so far this season, he has a 3.67 ERA and a 4.54 xFIP while striking out 23.6% and walking 5.2% in 41.2 innings so far. Last year he made 30 starts and threw 161.2 innings, posting a 25.4% strikeout rate and a 3.66 xFIP. Giolito has been better than that at times in his career, his 2021 season saw him put up a 27.9% strikeout rate and he had a 3.75 xFIP over 178.2 innings, but he has never truly ascended to expected heights. The righty has allowed just a 33.3% hard-hit rate this year, which is more in line with 2021 than with last season’s 39% mark. Limiting premium contact would be good for this pitcher, it was the primary difference between a strong 2021 and a good 2022. Giolito has a 2.87% home run rate allowed with an 8.3% barrel rate and just 87.8 mph of average exit velocity so far this season and he has been reliable for innings. In his last five starts, Giolito has gone six innings twice and pitched in the seventh three times, bolstering his chances for a win and quality start bonus significantly. The Royals have been frisky this year, the team is behind the White Sox at 10-26, but they are better than that for MLB DFS purposes and they can bend numbers against good pitchers. In smaller doses, there is a good argument for taking a bit of a both-sided approach and adding some Royals stacks to a portfolio of lineups tonight. Bobby Witt Jr. has six home runs and 10 stolen bases with a 91 WRC+, an 11.3% barrel rate, and a 44.3% hard-hit rate, his run creation mark will be above average this time next week. Vinnie Pasquantino is a solid left-handed hitter with a good hit tool and sturdy power. The first baseman has six home runs with a .227 ISO and a 137 WRC+ this season and he is very difficult to strike out as well, with just an 11.7% strikeout rate this year and 11.4% last year. Sal Perez lands in the third spot in the lineup with seven home runs to his name this year. The All-Star catcher has a .220 ISo with a 127 WRC+ and mashes when he makes contact. Perez is also slashing .291/.343/.512 so far this year, getting it done with more than just the home run ball. Maikel Garcia is in the cleanup role in the confirmed lineup. The rookie has made just 31 plate appearances this season and is slashing .296/.323/.370 with a 50% hard-hit rate for $2,800/$2,400 with third base eligibility added to his shortstop positioning on DraftKings. MJ Melendez had a big day at the plate yesterday, he has four home runs and an 80 WRC+ overall but he has been smoking the ball when he connects. Melendez is underrated at just $4,100/$2,700 with catcher and outfield eligibility on both sites. The left-handed masher has a 15.6% barrel rate and a 57.1% hard-hit percentage this season. Hunter Dozier, Freddy Fermin, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Nate Eaton round out the unimpressive bottom half in the confirmed lineup, several of our favorite options from this team are missing in action tonight, which downgrades the team’s ratings across the board, and zeroes stacks into the top five hitters. Dozier is a veteran right-handed hitter who lacks much quality but hit 12 home runs with a 90 WRC+ in 500 plate appearances last year and Fermin is a quad-A catcher who comes cheap with minor-league power upside. Bradley and Eaton cost the minimum on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel with extremely low expectations.
Play: White Sox bats/stacks, Lucas Giolito, Royals top-5 in smaller doses
Update Notes: the Royals lineup is confirmed in the original draft, the weak second half of the lineup is a minor bump to Giolito overall. The White Sox gave Tim Anderson the night off, the lineup runs Benintendi-Vaughn-Robert-Sheets-Grandal-Alberto-Andrus-Zavala-Lenyn Sosa who offers mid-range prospect power that has translated to two home runs in 98 career plate appearances between 2022 and 2023. NOTE: This game is carrying an above-average PPD chance tonight with storms in the area, watch the news closely.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-117/4.96) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+108/4.65)
The game in Milwaukee features a weird pitching matchup that we frankly want very little to do with on either side. Frustrating lefty Eric Lauer is on the mound for the home team, he has a 4.40 ERA and 5.01 xFIP with a 21.6% strikeout rate, a 10.4% walk rate, and a 4.48% home run rate on 91.9 mph of average exit velocity and 11% barrels so far this year. Lauer was a bit better last year, posting a 23.8% strikeout rate over 158.2 innings with a 4.08 xFIP and 3.69 ERA, but he still allowed a 4.08% home run rate and tended to make flyball pitcher mistakes that do not go well with a high walk rate. Lauer costs $7,800/$8,300, it would not be unjustifiably stupid to play him in lineups tonight, but it is an extremely thin proposition against a Dodgers team that can obliterate left-handed pitching. The Dodgers’ .196 ISO against lefties this year ranks third behind the Rays at .276 and the Braves at .271 (what a stark contrast for power between those two teams and the rest of the league in this split!), but they have actually created runs five percent below average in the split this season. That should change in a hurry, Los Angeles is fully healthy and they have a good chance to ruin Lauer’s night early. Mookie Betts is creating runs 29% better than average overall in 151 plate appearances this year with a .219 ISO and one of his six home runs in 36 plate appearances against lefties. Freddie Freeman has three of his home runs against same-handed pitching in 47 plate appearances while posting a .227 ISO but just an 85 WRC+ against southpaws this year. Overall, Freeman has five home runs and a 128 WRC+. Will Smith destroys pitching on both sides, the catcher is slashing .306/.411/.556 with four home runs and a 161 WRC+ overall. Chris Taylor hits cleanup against southpaws, he is slashing just .217/.275/.530 overall but has seven home runs and a .313 ISO with a 113 WRC+ this season. Five of Taylor’s seven early home runs have come against lefties, he has a ridiculous .571 ISO in 30 plate appearances and has created runs 50% better than average in the split. Max Muncy has a .265 ISO and a 91 WRC+ against same-handed pitching this year, with three of his 12 home runs coming in the split, he has been better for his career against lefties than righties but is equally powerful against both in general. Miguel Vargas has two home runs in 127 plate appearances on the right side, and James Outman has eight in 139 tries from the left side, with one of them coming in his 36 opportunities against same-handed pitching. Outman is slashing .321/.472/.500 with a .179 IOS but a 176 WRC+ against lefties this year. Trayce Thompson has four home runs and a .240 ISO with an ugly triple-slash but an outrageous contact profile over 59 plate appearances. Thompson has a 21.7% barrel rate and 52.2% hard-hit when he has made contact this season and he costs $2,600/$2,400 as a sneaky power bat late in this lineup if he plays. Miguel Rojas rounds things out with a bit of a thud.
The Dodgers starter is equally as irritating, Noah Syndergaard has a 15.2% strikeout rate with a 6.32 ERA and 4.67 xFIP over 31.1 innings in six starts. The righty has walked just 2.9% of opposing hitters, he has been spectacular for control but is inducing just a 9.1% swinging-strike rate with a 27.2% CSW% to this point while allowing a moderate amount of premium contact. Syndergaard was never the apex predator that people seem to remember on the mound, but he was better for strikeouts than he has been this season or last, he posted a 16.8% strikeout rate over 134.2 innings in 2022. This is the real version of this pitcher at this point, there is not much hope of a return to the mid-20% strikeout range, and there is not a significant ceiling at $7,400/$7,500 against a frisky Brewers lineup. Christian Yelich leads off at .242/.324/.364 with a .121 ISO and 92 WRC+ for $5,200/$3,200. Yelich has improved his barrel rate to 7.4% with a still-great 54.7% hard-hit rate, he is a capable MLB DFS points creator for the money despite the obvious warts. Jesse Winker slots in second in the projected lineup, he has yet to homer this year and has just a .042 ISO with an 86 WRC+ over 87 plate appearances but he comes cheap with the memory of a good hitter at $3,100/$2,400. Willy Adames is a power-hitting shortstop who has a .197 ISO and seven home runs. Adames is second behind Rowdy Tellez in our power index, with a 6.82 in the model. Tellez checks in at 8.42 with nine home runs on the board in 125 plate appearances already this season. Both hitters have made a ton of premium contact early, Adames has a 13.5% barrel rate and Tellez sports a 12.5% mark. William Contreras has a 47.5% hard-hit rate and a pair of home runs with a 113 WRC+ over 114 plate appearances as a mid-priced catcher. Brian Anderson raked to start the season but has cooled, he is a slightly above-average hitter in general, but he has five home runs and a 111 WRC+ overall and remains cheap at $4,100/$2,800 in the outfield or at third base. Brice Turang, Tyrone Taylor, and Joey Weimer round out the lineup, Taylor remains our favored option given his mid-range power. The cheap outfielder hit 17 home runs in 405 plate appearances last season.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Brewers bats/stacks
Update Notes: The Dodgers lineup looks like we expected it to. The Brewers will spell Contreras with Victor Caratini in the sixth spot with Anderson hitting fifth behind Tellez and the rest of the order intact. Caratini has one home run in 44 plate appearances this year, he hit nine in 314 opportunities last season and is not entirely inept at the dish as a $2,000 catcher on DraftKings, he is less of an option than Contreras was on FanDuel however.
San Diego Padres (+101/4.49) @ Minnesota Twins (-108/4.60)
One of the top spots for power in our model is the game between the Padres and Twins from Minnesota tonight. Both teams are carrying mid-range implied totals in Vegas, and there are good marks for home run upside, with a few stars pushing the average totals higher, on both sides of the game. The pitching leaves something to be desired on both sides. The hometown Twins are starting prospect righty Louie Varland, who has a 29.8% strikeout rate in his two starts this year but has given up a massive amount of power as well. Varland has a plus fastball with a herky-jerky delivery and may ultimately be more suited to a relief role, but for now, he is a bit of a target on the mound until he figures things out, a matchup against the Padres is not a great place to do that on the fly. Varland allowed three home runs at Yankee Stadium in his first start and one homer in his second outing, though he did notably strike out eight in six innings in New York and six in 4.2 against the White Sox, giving him at least the dream of a ceiling as an SP2 for $6,800. The Padres superstar has a 17.01 in our home run model, putting him second to only Aaron Judge on today’s slate. Fernando Tatis Jr. costs $6,000/$3,700 with eligibility in the outfield on both sites while adding shortstop on the blue site. Tatis has four home runs and a .232 ISO while creating runs 30% better than average since returning 72 plate appearances ago, there is no arguing with his talent, price, or opportunity. Manny Machado costs $5,000/$3,000, a major discount for this player’s talent level. Machado is scuffling at just .252/.303/.389 with four home runs and a .137 ISO this year, but he is a star who will bounce back and should be included for the discounted price alone. Juan Soto is creating runs 21% better than average despite a .220 batting average and .398 slugging percentage, partly on the back of his 20.6% walk rate and .381 on-base percentage. Soto has five home runs and a .179 ISO but his lack of star-caliber production from years past is growing more apparent. The outfielder costs $5,100/$3,500, which is cheap for who he really is, but about right for this version of him. Xander Bogaerts is a star at $4,800/$3,500, he is slashing .283/.378/.465 with six home runs while creating runs 37% better than average. Matt Carpenter has a 17.4% barrel rate but a 30.4% hard-hit percentage with three home runs in 83 plate appearances, we continue to be disbelievers. Jake Cronenworth has created runs 10% better than average with three home runs in 140 plate appearances this year, he his 17 home runs and was 10% better than average over 684 opportunities last year and is a playable piece. Ha-Seong Kim is slashing just .229/.331/.362 with three home runs and five steals, Trent Grisham has a 112 WRC+ and four home runs, and Brett Sullivan is a cheap catcher in the ninth spot in the projected lineup.
With Michael Wacha on the mound, the Twins are showing upside for power based on their contact in combination with the available contact from the league-average(ish) pitcher. Wacha has a 19% strikeout rate in six starts and 31.1 innings this year, he was at 20.2% last year and 22.9% the year before in larger samples. The righty has never been great at limiting power, he had a 3.50% home run rate with a 9.6% barrel rate allowed last year and a 4.36% home run rate with a 10.5% mark for barrels the season before while allowing 42.7% hard hits. So far this season, Wacha has been better at limiting the damage with just a 31.7% hard-hit rate and 87.3 mph of average exit velocity, but hitters have still managed a 9.9% barrel rate against him and he has a very limited arsenal that has generated merely an 8.7% swinging-strike rate and a 25.7% CSW%. The Twins are the option we prefer in this matchup, Wacha costs $6,600/$7,700, he is more viable as a cheap low-end DraftKings SP2, but even that is not great, he ranks in the bottom third of our pitching board tonight. The projected lineup for Minnesota has Max Kepler and his powerful left-handed bat in the leadoff spot. Kepler has a 13.4% barrel rate and 49.3% hard-hit rate in his 99 plate appearances, posting five home runs with a .224 ISO already this year in a nice return to form. Carlos Correa has a .185 ISO with five home runs but has been 21% below average creating runs in 133 plate appearances. Correa is fine, he will come around in full soon enough and the power is in play already. The shortstop is cheap at $4,500/$3,000 and he has a 9.87 in our home run model that is third on the team, slightly ahead of Kepler’s 9.74. Jorge Polanco has an 8.68 in the home run model, he has hit two in his 66 plate appearances since returning from last year’s knee injury while barreling the ball in 12.5% of his batted-ball events. Polanco is still cheap at $4,800/$3,100 at second base. Outfield superstar Byron Buxton has a 15.8% barrel rate and 47.4% hard-hit rate in his 136 plate appearances. He is slashing .239/.339/.521 with eight home runs and he has a premium .282 ISO while creating runs 36% better than average. Buxton is affordable on this slate, he leads the team with a 13.82 in our home run model, making him one of the top-rated options on the slate as a whole. Alex Kirilloff is an interesting option for just $2,800/$2,200 in the heart of the order. The left-handed power prospect hit three home runs in 156 opportunities last year and eight in 231 tries the year before, he has made five plate appearances so far this year and could be sneaky at a great price in a good spot. Jose Miranda slots in ahead of Joey Gallo in the projected lineup, but if we are homer-hunting, Gallo is our man. The lefty has seven this season with a .371 ISO and a 141 WRC+ though his triple slash is now just .186/.329/.557. Miranda has three home runs but just a .094 ISO and a 65 WRC+ in 138 tries. He hit 15 home runs and was 17% better than average for run creation last year, so there is more upside available. Christian Vazquez and Michael A. Taylor are able to bend a slate at extremely low ownership and cheap prices on rare days, Taylor has four home runs and a .165 ISO in 99 plate appearances, while Vazquez is at a 69 WRC+ with zero home runs in 87 tries.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, Twins bats/stacks both with enthusiasm
Update Notes: The Padres have Cronenworth slotted in second behind Tatis in a wrinkle tonight. Everyone is playing they just move down with Machado third ahead of Soto-Bogaerts-Carpenter-Kim-Grisham-Nola. The Twins lineup looks just like we thought it would.
St. Louis Cardinals (+114/3.61) @ Chicago Cubs (-123/3.96)
Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has been a bit better than league average for most of his career, with small bursts of quality in excess of that level. He had a 20.7% strikeout rate with a 3.79 xFIP and 3.91 ERA in 32 starts last year and a 23.2% strikeout rate in 29 starts the season before after a miraculous return to action following multiple devastating arm injuries. Taillon costs $7,500/$7,800 and he has a 27% strikeout rate with a 3.86 xFIP in 17 innings over four starts in 2023. Taillon is not the top option on the board, he does not project overly well in our model against the Cardinals, it would less surprising to see him limit St. Louis to only a handful of runs and not much MLB DFS point-scoring production than it would to see him post a slate-winning score. Taillon will be facing a Cardinals lineup that has struggled overall but has significant talent as well. Lars Nootbaar is projected to leadoff, the lefty has two home runs and has created runs 37% better than average in 95 plate appearances after missing a few weeks in April. Nootbaar had a 12.1% barrel rate and 46% hard-hit over 347 plate appearances, hitting 14 home runs, in his breakout 2022 campaign and he is cheap in the outfield tonight. Paul Goldschmidt costs $6,100/$4,000, eh has seven home runs and is slashing .312/.399/.565 with a .254 ISO while creating runs 66% better than average. Goldschmidt is a star at first base by any measure. Nolan Gorman slots in third, he has a 14.7% barrel rate and a 50.7% hard-hit rate with seven home runs in the books already in 2023. Gorman is a premium power hitter on the left side of the plate, he has a .245 ISO and has created runs 30% better than average, basically covering the absence of Nolan Arenado’s production behind him. Arenado costs just $4,800/$3,000 in a major discount that is warranted by his struggles to-date this season. The star third baseman is slashing .232/.282/.326 with a .094 ISO and just a 3.7% barrel rate and 33.3% hard-hit rate. This is the point in a sports movie where we would find out that the aging star just needs contact lenses before a monster turnaround. Willson Contreras lost his catching gig but will be a fixture in the lineup as a mid-range DH instead. Contreras is slashing .273/.346/..405 with a .132 ISO and 111 WRC+. Brendan Donovan and Dylan Carlson are capable options from late in the lineup, but Tommy Edman is always our preference. Edman has eligibility at second base and shortstop with five home runs and a .193 ISO for the season in 123 plate appearances, he is a good option anywhere in the lineup. Donovan has hit three home runs this year and plays all over the field, but is locked into second base on both sites tonight. Carlson has two home runs with a 77 WRC+ this year and hit just eight last year in 488 tries, but he hit 18 home runs in 619 tries in 2021 and is cheap at $2,600/$2,700. Andrew Knizner catches for $2,100/$2,200.
The Cubbies are facing Jack Flaherty who has struggled badly this season. Flaherty has a 6.29 ERA and a 4.97 xFIP in 34.1 innings with a 23.4% strikeout rate and a whopping 14.3% walk rate (still inflated by a six-walk outing on April 7th). He has induced an 11.7% swinging-strike rate and has a 28.7% CSW% while allowing a 10.9% barrel rate, a 41.3% hard-hit and 89.5 mph of average exit velocity. The veteran righty has had two starts with good strikeout totals, a nine-strikeout game with three runs allowed against the Mariners, and a seven-strikeout game against the Dodgers, but he has been tattooed for run creation up and down this year and has allowed a home run in five straight starts. Last time out, Flaherty struck out only three while giving up 10 runs on nine hits, including a home run, against the Angels. Flaherty is too difficult to trust for $7,700/$8,000 against a good Cubs lineup, the situation seems to favor Chicago stacks in this one. Dansby Swanson slots into the leadoff spot with Nico Hoerner likely out with an injury. Swanson is a capable leadoff hitter with a nose for getting on base and the ability to swipe double-digit bases in a season. He has three steals already this season to go with two home runs and a 115 WRC+ in 156 opportunities. Swanson typically hits for more power than this but he has been good in the overall sense and still has a 9.5% barrel rate for the year. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki both slide up by a spot in the projected lineup, they are both solid options tonight. Happ has four home runs and four stolen bases with a .171 ISO and 148 WRC+ on the back of an 11% barrel rate, he is a top-end outfielder for just $4,800/$3,100. Suzuki has one home runs and a .094 ISO but he is very good at putting the ball in play with authority and he comes cheap at $4,600/$2,800. Cody Bellinger has seven home runs and a 146 WRC+ with a .258 ISO, he has a good mark in our power index, joining several Cubs hitters who are all rated between 7.0 and 8.0 for power tonight. Trey Mancini dips below that group at a 6.07, the slugger is up to .254/.301/.368 with a .114 ISO and three home runs after a slow start but has not fully engaged in the season. Matt Mervis is a premium rookie who everyone heard of last week, he has made 18 plate appearances and is yet to drive the ball, but he will. Mervis costs just $2,300 on both sites and could be sneaky if the public has soured on the option quickly. Patrick Wisdom hits too late in the lineup and is never popular enough for MLB DFS, which makes him one of our favorite assets on this team. He has 11 home runs and a .355 ISO with a 146 WRC+ this year while barreling 19.7% of his batted-ball events and generating a 59.1% hard-hit rate. Wisdom is very very good at the plate, he has a 7.97 in our home run model tonight to top the board for Chicago. Tucker Barnhart and Nick Madrigal round out the projected lineup.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks, Cardinals bats/stacks in smaller doses, value Taillon is fine if you’re really feeling it (we aren’t)
Update Notes: St. Louis has Paul DeJong in for Edman in the seventh spot in the lineup behind Donovan, the rest of the lineup is as expected. The Cubs have Nick Madrigal in the leadoff role instead of moving Swanson up, the bigger hit to quality is the absence of Patrick Wisdom, who is replaced with Christopher Morel late in the lineup. Chicago’s heart of the order still looks right with Swanson-Happ-Bellinger-Suzuki but then hits Eric Hosmer before getting to Mervis-Morel-Miguel Amaya, overall this is a bit of a downgrade to the Cubs but we can still utilize the middle of the lineup, 2-3-4-5-7-8 are the most appealing spots, Morel was good last year in 425 plate appearances, he hit 16 home runs and stole 10 bases and he costs just $4,000/$2,000 with outfield and third base eligibility, he is a very interesting option at the minimum on FanDuel.
Houston Astros (+128/3.49) @ Los Angeles Angels (-139/4.09)
The pitching duel of the day takes two premium teams somewhat off the board for offense in an MLB DFS sense. There are certainly arguments to be made for rostering contrarian shares of Astros or Angels on most slates, but a matchup between Framber Valdez and Shohei Ohtani has an extremely limiting effect on the outlook for run creation and power in this one, these bats are best left to whoever wants them, but both pitchers are very interesting tonight. Ohtani takes the mound for the home squad, which means the Angels lineup will be further diminished by not being able to use him in stacks. Ohtani is easily the most playable option on the Angels tonight on the mound, he has a ridiculous 38.6% strikeout rate that plays for major upside even against the elite Astros bats. Ohtani was at a 33.2% mark for strikeouts in a full 28 starts and 166 innings last year and he has increased his swinging-strike rate from 14.9% to 15.2% with his CSW% jumping from 31.6% to 33.1% so far in 2023, which somewhat justifies the overall strikeout bump. Ohtani is elite, he walks too many at 11.8% but it barely matters, when he has just a 0.87 WHIP overall and allows only a very little bit of premium contact or home run upside. Opposing hitters have just a 7.2% barrel rate with a 31.9% hard-hit and a ridiculously low 85.5 mph of average exit velocity against Ohtani this year, it is one of the most difficult things in baseball to square this pitcher up for premium contact. The right-handed superstar is a strong buy, even at $11,600 on both sites and even against the Astros. We do not advocate playing Astros tonight, but, in descending order of playability, they would rank: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, Chas McCormick, (almost anyone else from any other team), Jose Abreu, Mauricio Dubon, Corey Julks, Martin Maldonado.
The Angels lineup is equally unplayable in our opinion tonight but for different reasons. The Astros will have lefty ace Framber Valdez on the mound tonight. Valdez has a good 24.9% strikeout rate for the season with a 2.86 xFIP and a 2.60 ERA in his 45 innings over seven starts, he was very good last year with a 23.5% strikeout rate, a 3.00 xFIP and a 2.82 ERA, but what makes him elite is his ability to take the power bats out of the hands of the opposition. Valdez has allowed a 1.33% home run rate on a -3.6-degree average launch angle in 2022 and a 2.10% home run rate on a -5.5-degree average launch angle in 2021. He has a -0.4-degree average launch angle with a 2.21% home run rate so far this season than, in his typical fashion, renders his 46.8% hard-hit rate somewhat moot. Valdez is very good at keeping the ball in the yard and he can find strikeouts along the way against the somewhat free-swinging Angels. There is plenty of power in a general sense in the Los Angeles lineup, but Ohtani leaves a canyon in the heart of the order and Valdez’s ability to limit home runs is likely to keep the team’s productivity in check. In descending order of playability, Angels options are: Mike Trout four times, or if the sites won’t let you do that, Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury, Taylor Ward, and Anthony Rendon all connect to Trout well and have individual upside in most situations, while Luis Rengifo, Chad Wallach, and Zach Neto are lesser options later in the lineup, with Rengifo leading the way.
Play: Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (+143/3.38) @ Seattle Mariners (-155/4.20)
The soaring Rangers are in a tough matchup in a pitcher’s park against control and command specialist George Kirby who has just a two percent walk rate to go with his 1.35% home run rate and 3.11 ERA this season. Kirby has a 4.11 xFIP with a 17.6% strikeout rate in the 37.2 innings six-star sample, so he has not been the ideal blueprint for pitching success from an MLB DFS perspective, but he is very good at pitching deep into games and keeping scores low. As evidence for this, we need to look no further than the 3.38-run implied total the Rangers are carrying, basically half of their seasonal per-game scoring output. Kirby struck out 24.5% while walking just 4.1% over 130 innings as a rookie last year, so this is not a small sample blip, he is very good at putting the ball exactly where he wants it, and he is better than he has been in 2023 for strikeout upside. Kirby costs $9,100/$9,900 and could be worth some darts against a Rangers team with deadly upside, but a significant amount of strikeouts as well. The Rangers lineup opens with Marcus Semien who is one of the team’s most patient hitters at just a 17% strikeout rate with a 12.6% walk rate. Semien is the primary challenge for Kirby in this lineup, the second baseman has five home runs and five stolen bases while creating runs 37% better than average so far for $5,900/$4,000. Travis Jankowski has five stolen bases while slashing .309/.382/.412 with a 125 WRC+ as a fairly good speed and correlated scoring piece. Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung have provided a sturdy everyday power core for this team so far in 2023. Lowe has four home runs, Garcia has nine, and Jung has hit eight, and they are all above average for run creation so far this year. The group is not overly expensive on DraftKings, with Lowe at $4,700 and Jung costing only $4,600, which help offset the $5,800 asking price for Garcia. On FanDuel they are priced at $3,100, $3,900, $3,800, which is a bit more challenging. Jonah Heim could have easily been included in that group as well, the power-hitting catcher has six home runs and is rarely as popular as he should be for a required position that costs just $4,400 tonight. Heim has a 13.4% barrel rate and a 47.6% hard-hit percentage this year, he hit 16 home runs in 450 plate appearances last season and 10 in 285 tries in 2021, so the power is not out of the clear blue. Ezequiel Duran is creating runs 28% better than average while slashing .307/.337/.489 with four home runs and two steals, finally delivering on the expected talent in the infield for just $3,200/$2,900. Duran is a great FanDuel piece in better matchups, he is always cheap and low-owned with three-position eligibility. Robbie Grossman and Leody Taveras round out the projected lineup for Texas.
The Mariners are an interesting inflection point for tonight’s slate. They are at home in a pitching-friendly environment to face good-but-problematic Andrew Heaney, a highly capable lefty with premium strikeout stuff and a home run problem. Heaney made 14 starts and threw 72.2 innings last season, he struck out 35.5% of hitters and allowed a home run to another 4.52%, giving up a massive 47.7% hard-hit rate and an 11% barrel rate, neither of which pair well with a 17.8-degree average launch angle allowed and 91.2 mph of average exit velocity. This season, Heaney has dipped to 24.4% strikeouts in his six starts and 29.1 innings, and he has given up a 5.51% home run rate on premium contact numbers that are all over the map. In this year’s microscopic sample, the southpaw has given up a 12.8% barrel rate but only 32.1% hard hits on 88.5 mph of average exit velocity, the last two of which would be major improvements over the last two seasons, but the first of which is unsustainable for power-hitting upside. As if determined to illustrate his issues for us early this season, Heaney allowed two home runs and struck out only two in his 2.2-inning seven-run disaster of a first start, then went three straight games without giving up a home run, striking out 10 Royals, four Astros, and four Athletics while pitching five innings twice and six in the third start. In his next two starts, Heaney struck out six Yankees but allowed two home runs and three earned runs, then he struck out five Diamondbacks but walked four and allowed three home runs and six earned runs. This is one of the more frustrating starters in baseball, he can get hit extremely hard when he is not right and the Mariners are loaded with right-handed power. The team could potentially be better for small stacks or one-off home run upside plays than for full stacking, in case we get the capable or even the high-end version of Heaney. The lefty can punch holes in a lineup and make it difficult to sequence with his strikeout upside, but he also walks hitters at an aggressive pace and can create trouble for himself that the Mariners may capitalize on as well. At .210/.278/.399 with a .188 ISO while creating runs nine percent below average, it might be safe to say that Julio Rodriguez is pressing a bit in an effort to duplicate his fantastic rookie season. The sophomore star still has a 10.4% barrel rate and a 44.8% hard-hit for the season and he has those six home runs and six stolen bases it seems like we’ve been mentioning since the second week of the season when it comes to MLB DFS counting stats. Rodriguez should absolutely get things in gear soon enough, he has a team-leading 13.52 in our home run model tonight. Ty France hit one out last night and now has two home runs on the season while creating runs 16% better than average. France has upper-mid-range power and a very good hit tool, he hits second and gets involved with regularity when he is going right. Jarred Kelenic has seven home runs and a 149 WRC+ with a .263 ISO, he has a 13.6% barrel rate that matches last season’s strong mark in the category and his hard hit rate has soared from 35% to 54.3%. Kelenic has cooled slightly from his hot start, but that is an expected normalization, he can still be looked at as a premium bat in this lineup for just $4,800/$3,300. Kelenic has a pair of home runs and is slashing .346/.393/.654 with a .308 ISO while creating runs 92% better than average in 28 plate appearances against same-handed pitching this season, so the lefty-lefty matchup is not a major concern, but he may drop to fifth in the lineup depending what the Mariners decide tonight. Eugenio Suarez has an 11.75 in our home run model, he has three on the season with just a .105 ISO but there is a long track record of power that will linger with this hitter unless the blackout continues for a long stretch. Suarez is very cheap for his upside against this pitcher, he costs just $3,800/$2,800 at third base and is a playable piece in all configurations of Mariners. Teoscar Hernandez may slide up to third in the lineup in a swap with Kelenic, the right-handed outfielder is slashing .226/.267/.416 but has a .190 ISO and seven home runs in his 146 plate appearances. Hernandez has a 13.6% barrel rate and 45.5% hard-hit rate so far this season, very good marks that are slightly down from his excellent 15% and 52.7% from last year. One version of the projected lineup includes Tom Murphy and skips Cal Raleigh, giving the catcher a night off, but it seems likely that Raleigh will work his way into the lineup against this lefty. He would add another major power bat to the Mariners’ lineup on the right side of the plate. Raleigh has a 10.48 in our home run model in this spot in the lineup, he has hit five homers this season and has a .202 ISO with a 13.9% barrel rate for just $4,200/$3,000. Murphy is good for right-handed catcher power as well, he has zero home runs this year but hit 11 in 325 plate appearances in 2021 and comes cheap at $2,100/$2,000. AJ Pollock, JP Crawford, and Jose Caballero round out the projected lineup with an 8.06, 3.10, and 3.34 in our home run model, Pollock is the clear play from that group if we ignore positioning. The veteran outfielder has a .254 ISO and four home runs in his 64 plate appearances this year but is slashing .153/.203/.407 and has created runs 36% worse than average.
Play: Mariners stacks/bats, George Kirby, minor shares of Rangers bats
Update Notes: The Mariners have Tom Murphy in the lineup and no Raleigh. Sam Haggerty sneaks in late with the idea of power upside. He hit five home runs in 201 plate appearances with a .148 ISO and a 114 WRC+ last year and costs $2,300/$2,100 at first base and second base on DraftKings and first base with outfield eligibility on FanDuel
Miami Marlins (+103/4.46) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-111/4.63)
The Marlins are facing rookie hurler Brandon Pfaadt who was lit up over 4.2 innings in the first start of his career last week. Pfaadt struck out three and walked one but allowed a whopping four home runs in the short outing, ultimately getting charged with seven earned runs after facing 23 hitters. Pfaadt is a highly regarded prospect and he is facing a low-end lineup tonight for the minimum $4,500 pitcher price on DraftKings, which means last week’s performance should be totally ignored in favor of the extreme value option that is being presented tonight. On FanDuel, Pfaadt costs just $5,800, while he is unlikely to see the depth to reach a quality start, that is a cheap enough price that he would not need to if he can give us five clean innings and a handful of strikeouts, which the Marlins could be happy to provide. Pfaadt looks to be very much in play for his strikeout potential at these bargain bin prices. Pfaadt struck out 28.6% in AAA over 25.1 innings in five starts this season and had a 30.6% strikeout rate over 61.2 innings in AAA last year with a 32.2% mark in 105.1 AA innings prior to that, he looks like the real thing in every sample except for his most recent – and only – Major League outing. At the same time, Marlins bats can be deployed against the rookie who could cough up a significant amount of power to the low-end team. The primary options are at the top of the lineup, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is very cheap at $2,900 on FanDuel, he costs $5,500 as a star player on DraftKings, but should probably be somewhere in between relatively speaking. Chisholm has five home runs and 11 stolen bases but has been creating runs 22% worse than average with just a .146 ISO overall. Jorge Soler has an 18.2% barrel rate and a 48.9% hard-hit rate this year, he has translated the contact into seven early home runs with a .242 ISO and he remains a top-end power hitter for just $4,300/$3,200 in the outfield. Yuli Gurriel and Luis Arraez are the last two American League Batting Title winners, Gurriel in 2021 and Arraez last year, this season they are slashing .269/.310/.423 and .414/.469/.509 with a 101 and 171 WRC+ in slightly different starts to their years. Gurriel is playing out the thread but is still a semi-capable bat, Arraez has the best active hit-tool in baseball and could chase .400 this season. Bryan De La Cruz has a 77 WRC+ in 124 plate appearances, Jean Segura is at a 24, which means he has been 76% worse than average creating runs in 121 opportunities. The Marlins might be better off with comedian Tom Segura in the lineup tonight instead. Nick Fortes and Joey Wendle are low-end options late in the lineup, but Jesus Sanchez has upside for power with two home runs and a .200 ISO in his 68 opportunities this year. Sanchez hit 13 home runs in 343 otherwise weak plate appearances last year and has a 15.4% barrel rate and 53.8% hard-hit for just $2,700/$2,200.
The Snakes will be facing lefty Jesus Luzardo who checks in with a 25.6% strikeout rate over 39.1 innings in seven starts. The depth that Luzardo has provided in early outings is very encouraging for the pitcher who has alternated between struggling with injuries and quality at times in his brief career. Luzardo came up as a top-ranked pitching prospect and has mostly delivered when he has been able. The lefty had a 30% strikeout rate in 18 starts and 100.1 innings last year, putting up a 3.32 ERA and a sparkling 3.11 xFIP in the sample while inducing a 13.8% swinging-strike rate. The filthy lefty has a 13.4% swinging-strike rate and a 29.9% CSW% so far this year and he cots just $8,800/$9.500 tonight, which should have him in play as an upper mid-range option. Luzardo will be challenged by a Diamondbacks lineup that sits at a 104 WRC+ against lefties this year, but they have merely a .147 collective ISO and he has the talent to get through their lineup cleanly a couple of times. Ketel Marte has five home runs and a .231 ISO, he has been raking with a 10.5% barrel rate but he costs $5,600/$3,300 tonight. The second baseman has created runs 17% better than average and should be played when going to the Diamondbacks, but the team’s overall appeal is only moderate tonight, which limits Marte in general. Emmanuel Rivera has created runs at a brisk pace in his 33 plate appearances this season but was five percent below average with a .176 ISO and 12 home runs in 359 tries last year. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has five home runs and an encouraging .310/.368/.522 triple-slash with a .212 ISO and 140 WRC+ so far in 125 plate appearances since coming to Arizona in the offseason. The bounceback for power is nice to see for a player who hit only five home runs all of last season but was otherwise very good for Toronto. Christian Walker has nine home runs and seems to be hitting one a day on his way back to extreme production. He has a .273 ISO and a 133 WRC+ and memories of his slow start are all gone. Evan Longoria slots in fifth ahead of the much better Corbin Carroll, who has five home runs and 10 stolen bases with a 143 WRC+. Longoria will play against the lefty, he has the power from the right side of the plate to ruin Luzardo’s day but has managed just three home runs overall this season. Longoria is cheap at $3,700/$2,700 while Carroll comes in at a fair $5,800/$3,600. Nick Ahmed, Gabriel Moreno, and Alek Thomas round out the projected lineup, giving Luzardo a nice cushion in the final third.
Play: Brandon Pfaadt extreme value play, Jesus Luzardo, Marlins and Diamondbacks bats/stacks in smaller doses
Update Notes: the Diamondbacks lineup includes Dominic Fletcher instead of Thomas in the ninth spot but is otherwise as expected. It has been mentioned to us that Pfaadt is projected for fairly low ownership around the industry, this seems like an opportunity for what is the price of an inexpensive hitter, not a premium pitching prospect against a bad team.
Washington Nationals (+212/3.38) @ San Francisco Giants (-235/5.23)
The final game of the night has the low-end Nationals facing a Giants team that let down the entire industry last night – with the exception of Joc Pederson of course, who delivered on our home run call late in the game. The Giants are pulling in by far the higher implied team total with a 5.23 as compared to the 3.38 carried by Washington in a matchup against right-handed ace Logan Webb. In seven starts and 45 innings this season, Webb has been excellent, he has a 3.80 ERA that is nearly a run higher than his terrific 2.99 xFIP and he has struck out 27% of opposing hitters while walking just 3.9%. The righty has allowed a bit of power and premium contact so far, with an 11.5% barrel rate and 89.5 mph of average exit velocity, but he is adept at keeping the ball down and in the ballpark in general. Last season, Webb allowed just a 1.40% home run rate on a 3.1-degree average launch angle, the year before it was a 1.51% rate on a -0.5-degree angle. Webb, like Framber Valdez, is very good at inducing groundballs that keep him out of trouble in most starts. He has similar strikeout upside and a better matchup than Valdez tonight, pushing Webb into one of the top spots on our pitching board. The righty is too cheap in this matchup at $9,500 on DraftKings, his $10,500 price on FanDuel feels about right. Webb is a good buy on both sites and should be rostered enthusiastically against a team with only Lane Thomas above average by WRC+ this season. Shockingly, that means the leadoff hitter is the one producing runs at an above-average pace for Washington instead of the ninth hitter for a change. That is about where the good news ends. The projected lineup includes Thomas, who has three home runs and three stolen bases for $2,500/$2,900, as well as Luis Garcia, Keibert Ruiz, and Joey Meneses. The trio of hitters is averaging a WRC+ of just 88 across 401 combined plate appearances with a total of eight home runs. Meneses has a 3.63 in our home run model, landing him second behind Luis Garcia’s 4.22. Jeimer Candelario has been 17% worse than average creating runs, Dominic Smith lands 30% worse than league average, they have a combined five home runs with four of them belonging to Candelario. Alex Call, CJ Abrams, and Stone Garrett fill out the lineup, Garrett is the best bat with the idea of power from that group.
The Giants look like a good play again tonight with gas can Patrick Corbin on the mound. The lefty has a 15.9% strikeout rate and a 4.27 xFIP with a 5.17 ERA this year and he has given up a 45.5% hard-hit rate and 90.5 mph of average exit velocity. Corbin has found a few strikeouts and seen some depth in starts this season, he went seven innings and struck out six Cubs without allowing a home run, but gave up two earned on three hits ultimately, in his last performance, for example. But the starter has allowed six home runs in his starts, with two outings where he coughed up multiple home runs already this year. Corbin is not a strong play, but at a bargain-bin price of $5,800/$6,800, a few SP2 darts on DraftKings are not a completely wild idea. The lefty would need to pitch into the seventh with a fairly clean line and find his strikeouts against a Giants lineup that willingly gives them up, but the premium power and heavily right-handed lineup look more likely to get to him in this one. The Giants bats are our preferred play between the two, the projected lineup includes the return of Austin Slater in the leadoff role, the righty has just 16 plate appearances this season with a 184 WRC+, he had seven home runs and a 124 WRC+ in 325 plate appearances, adding 12 stolen bases for MLB DFS scoring. Thairo Estrada costs $5,500/$3,600, a fair price for someone creating runs 57% better than average with six home runs and nine stolen bases in the infield. Mitch Haniger and JD Davis are right-handed power bats with major upside in this matchup. Haniger has a 10.63 in our home run model to lead the team, he has two in his 43 plate appearances this year and is a star power bat in the outfield when he is healthy. Davis has seven home runs with a 10% barrel rate and 52.9% hard-hit rate in 114 plate appearances this season, he has created runs 40% better than average and has a .228 ISO while slashing .287/.360/.515. Davis is a great third base option for just $3,500/$3,200 on this slate, hopefully the public soured on the Giants after last night’s meltdown at high ownership, they look even better from the right side tonight. Wilmer Flores has made a career on hitting lefties, he is slashing .270/.316/.517 with a .247 ISO in 95 plate appearances overall this season and he has a .219 ISO for his career in the split. Michael Conforto hits from the left side but has power to spare in most situations, he comes cheap if he is in the lineup, given his scuffling .145/.242/.325 triple-slash, this might be a good spot for the team to give Conforto a night off, but if he plays he can be a lower-end option late in the lineup. David Villar has not gotten going in 2023, he has four home runs and a 58 WRC+ in 95 plate appearances. Joey Bart has no home runs but a serviceable triple-slash and a 101 WRC+ as a very cheap catcher option for $2,500 on both sites. LaMonte Wade Jr. rounds out the lineup as a lefty who drops in platoon situations. In 109 plate appearances for his short career against lefties, Wade is slashing just .129/.219/.204 with a .075 ISO and a 25 WRC+, there is probably a better option for both you and the Giants at the end of the lineup against a southpaw.
Play: Giants bats/stacks, Logan Webb
Update Notes: the Giants did give Conforto the night off, the bottom of the lineup has Villar moving up to sixth, followed by the debut of third baseman Casey Schmitt, who costs the minimum on DraftKings and does not exist on FanDuel. Schmitt is more of a glove-man as a prospect, there is hope of development at the plate but right now he should not be considered as a major MLB DFS options. He is followed by Joey Bart and Brett Wisely, with the team… smartly, intelligently, sharply, adeptly, any synonym but “wisely”… avoiding Wade’s dead stick in the same-handed split.
Follow on Twitter for daily links to all published content.
