A nine-game Tuesday evening slate on DraftKings and FanDuel appears to be overflowing with potential power spots. A glance at today’s Power Index will tell the tale of several squads with inferior pitching options feeding into the massive home run potential of some of baseball’s top offenses. The board includes some of the best home run-hitting teams in the game, but most of them are also very good at sequencing and creating runs, which makes them viable stacks even when the ball does not sail out of the park. The lone exception at the top of the power board could be the Angels in their matchup against an elite prospect pitcher with dazzling stuff. The team is showing power against the rookie, but he could keep their overall production in check while racking up strikeouts. Beyond that, the Power Index seems like a strong guide for stacking today.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 4/25/23
Chicago White Sox (+177/3.80) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-195/5.32)
The game between the White Sox and Blue Jays is looking like a potentially under-appreciated source of home run hitting on this slate, with both teams drawing strong marks for power potential in our home run model. The Blue Jays will have Jose Berrios on the mound, the righty has been somewhat effective limiting the long ball over his four starts this year, with just a 1.11% home run rate in the small sample, but he allowed a 3.85% rate last year and has always been a pitcher who gives up premium contact. Berrios has a bumpy 6.23 ERA on the season but the underlying 3.55 xFIP is a much better and more telling number. The righty has struck out 23.3% of opposing hitters and has just a 4.4% walk rate, but he has yielded a 42.2% hard-hit rate. Between the two starters, Berrios is easily the more targetable for pitching shares, and he is pulling in a decent projection for the $8,100/$7,800 from site to site. The White Sox are pulling down a 9.14 average home run rating for the full lineup, with most of the power potential locked into three players who land above 10. Those obvious names are Luis Robert Jr., who has five homers and a .226 ISO over 97 plate appearances, Andrew Vaughn, who has just one home run but a 111 WRC+ and is projected to hit third in the lineup, and Eloy Jimenez who leads the team with a 14.26 but is slashing just .196/.274/.357 with two home runs in his 62 opportunities. The White Sox have not been great this season, several key hitters have either missed time or struggled, or both in cases like Jimenez. Two-hitter Andrew Benintendi is slashing .296/.352/.358 with a 100 WRC+ but just a .062 ISO and no home runs. Benintendi is off to a lousy start in his contact profile and walk rate, but he has still kept the ball in play and avoided the strikeout, he should be a reasonable correlation piece when going to White Sox stacks on most slates. Yasmani Grandal has a pair of home runs and a solid .194 ISO with a 130 WRC+ on the season. He has not made premium contact but adding in his walk rate and on-base acumen helps bolster Grandal’s case for shares at the catcher position, he can be deployed at $2,600 on FanDuel when stacking White Sox aggressively. Jake Burger is just below the magic number with a 9.42 in the home run model, he has five on the season with a titanic .439 ISO and a 162 WRC+ over his 49 plate appearances. Burger has a 30.8% barrel rate and a 46.2% hard-hit rate in the extremely small sample. Over 162 opportunities last year, he posted a 14.9% barrel rate and a 43% hard-hit mark, with eight home runs and a .208 ISO, there is believability in the contact profile. Oscar Colas has scuffled so far in his Major League career, Elvis Andrus is just bad and always has been, and Lenyn Sosa does not inspire much faith for MLB DFS, the bottom-third of this lineup drops off aggressively.
Right-handed starter Mike Clevinger has struggled to find his form so far in 2023. Clevinger made 22 starts and threw 114.1 innings last year, posting just an 18.8% strikeout rate with a 4.76 xFIP while allowing a 4.12% home run rate. The righty was better than that at one point in his career, but nothing about the 5.93 xFIP, 17.2% strikeout rate, and 12.6% walk rate that he has put up in four starts and 19.1 innings so far this season is encouraging for a turnaround. Clevinger has been better for home runs so far, but that could be chalked up to happenstance, he has a 2.30% home run rate but an 8.5% barrel rate allowed with 89.4 mph average exit velocity on a 19.8-degree average launch angle. The Blue Jays home run hitters are salivating at the chance to drive the ball on that trajectory. All of the top five hitters in the projected Toronto lineup land above 10 in the home run model today. George Springer should be back in the lineup after a day off on Monday that will hopefully be a reset point for his early season struggles. Over 100 plate appearances, the star outfielder is slashing just .196/.260/.304 with a .109 ISO and creating runs 41% below average. Springer does have three home runs and three stolen bases on the board so far this year, but he is a much better player than he has shown in his statistics to this point. The outfielder has not been priced down much on DraftKings, where they apparently have faith in his skills at $5,000, on FanDuel he is at just $3,100, making him an ideal option in a pricey stack. Bo Bichette has an 8.3% barrel rate and a 38.1% hard-hit rate but he has blasted four home runs and is slashing .327/.365/.500 with a 144 WRC+ for the season. Bichette is dynamite for correlation and individual upside, despite his $5,800/$3,600 pricing. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a superstar by any measure. The elite first baseman is slashing .333/.413/.522 with a .189 ISO and a 165 WRC+, he has five home runs and two stolen bases on the board and is always worth whatever price he carries for MLB DFS purposes. Daulton Varsho and Matt Chapman have combined for seven home runs, with Chapman hitting five of them. Varsho has been struggling early in his Toronto career, but the lefty should come around, he hit 27 home runs and create runs 17% better than average over all of last season. Chapman is priced at $5,100/$4,000 after his blazing hot start, he is a perfectly viable option at his position with elite contact numbers and power. Chapman is slashing .361/.430/.675 with a .313 ISO and has created runs 107% better than average. His 31.7% barrel rate and 65% hard-hit rate are as phenomenal as they are unsustainable in a larger sample, but Chapman may not plummet as far from those points as most would, he remains an excellent bat. Alejandro Kirk is a cheap catcher option with power and run creation skills for $3,900/$2,700. Brandon Belt still has significant power from the left side and is carrying an 8.68 in our home run model tonight. The lefty is a difficult roster ask with just first base eligibility and with Guerrero also on the team, but that will keep his popularity well in check, making him an interesting option to offset popularity and price. Cavan Biggio and Kevin Kiermaier occupy the bottom of this lineup most nights. Biggio is slashing .128/.209/.282 with a 37 WRC+ but Kiermaier has been productive at .302/.343/.429 with a 117 WRC+ in his 68 opportunities. He is more of a defensive outfielder but as a dirt-cheap wraparound option, MLB DFS gamers could potentially find worse.
Play: Blue Jays stacks/bats, White Sox top-6 in smaller doses, value shares of Jose Berrios potentially
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+170/3.63) @ New York Mets (-210/5.11)
The Nationals are visiting the Mets in Queens and they will be facing Jose Butto, a righty who costs $5,500 on both sites. Butto has made one start this season, pitching five innings and facing 23 Athletics hitters. He struck out two and walked four, allowing one earned run on five hits in that outing. Butto is not a highly-regarded pitching prospect, he is unranked overall and lands in the mid-teens of organizational prospect rankings at age 25. There is minor potential in the idea of five possibly clean innings against a bad team, but the strikeout potential does not look strong for Butto, even against these Nationals. He is a better option as an extreme value SP2 on DraftKings, he is a difficult play, even at price, on the blue site. This is not to say that the Nationals are showing much as a stacking option tonight. This is just a bad team with a lousy offense, we are back to the point where only their nine-hitter, Victor Robles, is carrying an above-average WRC+ for the season. Robles is slashing .290/.371/.371 with a .081 ISO and a 108 WRC+ and he has stolen three bases so far. That’s it, that is the best player for this team this year at the plate. Of course, other options have counting stats through the lineup, but the current home run leader is Jeimer Candelario with three. Luis Garcia has hit two, and no other batter in the lineup has more than one, with three of the projected starters still stuck at zero. Alex Call, Candelario, Joey Meneses, and Garcia are playable from the top end of the projected lineup, but it is not a good spot. Catcher Keibert Ruiz costs just $2,800/$2,700 and makes for an interesting sneaky and cheap one-off at his position, but nothing more. Dominic Smith has made 83 plate appearances and has no home runs, he is in danger of losing his job very soon. Lane Thomas and CJ Abrams are also consuming oxygen in this lineup. This is not a good team but they are facing a not good inexperienced young pitcher, neither side of the equation is appealing.
The Mets lineup, on the other hand, looks like one of the best options of the day at the plate, as featured in our Power Index. Washington starter Josiah Gray still has plenty of bad in his ledger to outweigh the recent starts in which he has been less vulnerable to home runs. The small sample could be a sign of some improvement in a young pitcher who is otherwise a well-regarded arm, or it could be a statistical blip. Gray does seem to be throwing his fastball less frequently, the pitch was typically pounded, while his breaking stuff is more effective at limiting power, but his strikeout totals have dipped for it. For lack of being able to determine which of those possibilities is the case, we have to default to the larger sample and assume that Gray is a target for the loaded Mets lineup on this slate. The righty has made four starts and given up four home runs so far this season, but three of those came in his first outing against the power-packed Braves. He pitched six innings of one-run ball in Colorado then 5.2 against the Angels, with just two runs allowed but giving up the fourth home run, and then had a five-inning start against the Orioles that saw him strike out just three while walking four, but he did not give up the long ball and was charged with only one earned run. Overall, Gray is sitting at a 5.14 xFIP in 21.2 innings with a 17% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate, but he has kept hard hits to a fantastic 28.4% with just 84.1 mph of average exit velocity. If Gray gets through this Mets lineup a few times without giving up much in the way of power or premium contact it will be a noteworthy landmark on his ascent from the cellar. The Mets have a terrific lineup for sequencing, on-base ability, run creation, and power. The team’s leadoff man, Brandon Nimmo, has created runs 70% above average while slashing .250/.455/.500 with a .150 ISO over 100 plate appearances. Nimmo is more of a correlation piece, but the lefty can get into one for a home run at times, he hit 16 in 673 plate appearances last year. Starling Marte is similarly toolsy with multiple skillsets for mid-range power and blazing speed to create MLB DFS scoring. Marte has hit one home run and is slashing just .239/.333/.338 but he has stolen seven bases and is a strong option most nights, his below-par WRC+ will climb in short order. Francisco Lindor is second on the team with a 13.76 in tonight’s home run model. The shortstop has hit four long balls on the season and has a .244 ISO to go with his 123 WRC+. Despite slashing .221/.333/.465, Lindor has been a strong contributor all season. Pete Alonso leads the team with a whopping 20.92 in the home run model, better than doubling up our “magic number.” The slugging first baseman already has 10 home runs on the season, which was already more than any Met had ever hit in April in their history. Jeff McNeill is more of a slap-hitting correlation piece, he has one home run and a .111 ISO this year and hit nine homers with a .128 ISO last year. Mark Canha offers mid-range pop, he has two home runs on the board and lands at an 8.88 in the home run model today. Lefty Daniel Vogelbach is another player over the magic number with his 11.75 in the home run model. Vogelbach is a platoon specialist who has seen 51 plate appearances and hit one home run with a .125 ISO so far this year, but he had 18 homers in 461 tries while posting a .194 ISO last year. Rookie Brett Baty is showing a nice mark for power at a 9.75, he has yet to homer in his 22 plate appearances so far this year, he had two in 42 tries in a cup of coffee last year. Since his call-up, the prized prospect is slashing .238/.273/.238 with a .000 ISO and a 49 WRC+, he will get in gear soon enough. Tomas Nido is a defensive catcher who is not an overly strong asset at the plate for MLB DFS.
Play: Mets stacks/bats aggressively, possibly very minor contrarian SP2 value shares of Gray on DraftKings, but buyer beware in the most extreme sense of that phrase.
Update Notes:
Miami Marlins (+198/3.66) @ Atlanta Braves (-219/5.46)
The Marlins are looking awfully similar to the Nationals in this one. They come into the game with more talent than their NL East cellar rivals, but they will be facing veteran Charlie Morton while starting a targetable pitcher who is contributing massive upside for power to the opposing offense. This does not look like a good day on which to be a Marlins fan. However, Morton has not been overly good to start his season in 2023. The righty has made four starts and has thrown 22.1 innings with just a 16.5% strikeout rate and a 5.34 xFIP. He has a 1.61 WIHP on the season though his 3.22 ERA is deceptively good. Morton has struggled more below the surface, he could be moderately targetable, but the Marlins are an unreliable offense on their best day, and this could be Morton’s first truly strong start of the season. The starter is worth a few shares at just $8,600/$9,800 against the team that was dominated by his teammate last night. Targets in the Miami batting order would primarily be the obvious names at the top, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. leading the way. The outfielder is a $5,200 option on DraftKings but costs just $3,000 on the FanDuel slate. He has three home runs and seven steals on the season, but has created runs 31% worse than average overall. He is followed in the lineup by mid-range power bat Garrett Cooper who has hit three home runs with a .154 ISO and a 105 WRC+ this season, and Luis Arraez, who is currently holding the championship belt for having baseball’s best hit tool. The infielder has a legitimate chance to chase .400 all season, he is slashing an outrageous .444/.506/.583 to start the season, and he has created runs exactly 100% better than average over his 81 plate appearances. Jorge Soler has ripped five home runs and has a deadly .311 ISO with a 144 WRC+, he strikes out at a 23.8% clip so far, which is significantly lower than the 29.4% he posted last season, and he has always had a good eye, drawing around a 10% walk rate year over year. Soler is a strong power option against anyone, but his 7.70 is notably lower in our home run model, as the Marlins’ team leader, than many other power bats on this slate. Bryan De La Cruz is slashing .297/.346/.446 with two home runs and a 118 WRC+, he is not an ideal hitter and his contact profile is OK with a 7.4% barrel rate but a 48.1% hard-hit mark. For $3,000/$2,700, this is a hitter to include if you are creating a full stack of Marlins bats, but not much more. Veterans Avisail Garcia and Jean Segura are playing out the string and currently sit at a 29 and 26 WRC+ for their 63 and 74 plate appearances, there are better plays on this slate. Nick Fortes and Jon Berti round out the projected lineup, Berti is a viable wraparound player with speed but that’s about it.
The Braves are blowing the roof off of today’s home run model, with the entire top-6 pulling an average of double our magic number in the home run model, bolstered by the massive scores for the top three hitters. Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley are all pulling in better than a 20 in the model, with Olson leading the way at 27.44, this is the strongest group home run spot we have seen to this point in the season. Acuna has hit three home runs and has a 167 WRC+, Olson has six homers on the board and a 149 WRC+, and Riley checks in with five home runs and a 131 WRC+. The excellent trio is great for MLB DFS even when they are not hitting the ball over the wall. Adding the balance of this team to the mix is unfair to the pitcher, Sean Murphy has more power than any catcher in baseball. He has hit six home runs in his 82 plate appearances this year and is slashing .277/.427/.662 with a .385 ISO and a 187 WRC+, Murphy is an everyday player who can be in lineups for MLB DFS regardless of positional requirements. Eddie Rosario got on the board last night, he now has two home runs and a .145 ISO for the season. Ozzie Albies is a power-hitting second baseman who is too cheap at $4,300/$3,100, the price on the blue site is particularly low for a player with Albies’ skillset in a matchup like this. Vaughn Grissom has been a contributor since coming up, but his WRC+ sits well below average at 71 and he has no homers in the tiny 35 plate appearances sample. Sam Hilliard has been another fixture in this space since he stepped in for Michael Harris earlier in the season. Hilliard hit another two home runs and stole his fourth base of the season last night, he has three homers and is slashing .333/.412/.622 with a 176 WRC+ and a .289 ISO over his 51 plate appearances. Hilliard is playable for cheap prices when he is in the lineup, even after Harris returns it seems like the lefty has earned an ongoing backup job. Kevin Pillar is not much at the plate at this point in his career, but he has managed one homer in 40 plate appearances. The Braves join the Mets as potential NL East smash spots for power and individual upside tonight, stringing together some sequencing and run-scoring in between the likely home runs will put full stacks on board, and both teams are very good at doing those things when they are not hitting home runs.
Play: Braves stacks/bats aggressively, maybe some Charlie Morton shares for a decent price in a good matchup
Update Notes:
Detroit Tigers (+148/4.01) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-162/5.10)
The Tigers were an interesting option for individual home run power last night, and they came through with a pair of long balls but did not put up a significant score overall, which is precisely what should have been expected from the lousy team based on what we were seeing and reviewed in the home run model and power index. They are not even showing that quality on this slate, against Brewers lefty Eric Lauer, who is pulling in a quality projection in a great matchup. Lauer has made four starts and has a 4.86 xFIP with a 4.30 ERA in his 23 innings to this point. The starter has struck out just 20.4% of opposing hitters while walking 8.6% but he was better last season and there is good cause to have faith in him against these Tigers. Lauer struck out 23.8% of hitters last year with a 4.08 xFIP in his 158.2 innings, if he approaches that level tonight he should cruise to a strong start with the potential to chase the win and quality start bonuses. The Tigers are another team on which the projected lineup has only one hitter, again the nine-hitter, carrying a WRC+ that is better than the league average for run creation. This is yet another bad baseball team to start the slate. Detroit’s lone positive producer is part-time catcher Jake Rogers who has made just 38 plate appearances. Rogers has two home runs and a 159 WRC+ in that sample, but that should be taken only within the context of 38 plate appearances. The rest of the lineup has been worse in more opportunities. Matt Vierling is leading off, he has a .277 on-base percentage, good decision, Detroit. Javier Baez has created runs 45% worse than average over 80 plate appearances in which he has zero home runs, $20 million well spent, Tigers. Riley Greene is a capable young lefty finding his way, this is actually probably a good player over the long term. Greene is sitting at .224/.283/.341 with just a .118 ISO over 92 plate appearances however, and he has hit just two home runs in the heart of a bad lineup. Spencer Torkelson has disappointed greatly between last year and the start of this year, good use of a first-overall pick, Motor City. Torkelson is slashing .218./.256/.346 with two homers and a 60 WRC+. Eric Haase has monster power, but he has hit zero home runs in 55 opportunities this year and has posted just a .059 ISO and a 73 WRC+. Haase has just a 2.7% barrel rate this year with a 35.1% hard-hit rate. Tyler Nevin, Miguel Cabrera, and Jonathan Schoop are not much better than their teammates, they have a -12, 36, and 53 WRC+ respectively, in 20, 43, and 37 plate appearances in their small samples. This is a terrible Tigers team, but at least Cabrera is collecting nice gifts and getting goodbyes in with all the hot dog vendors in all the stadiums in baseball on his way out the door.
Righty Spencer Turnbull is an annoying pitcher in our model. He has a significant enough track record for limiting home runs that he constantly suppresses opposing power numbers, despite being demonstrably bad at about everything else. Turnbull has made four starts this season, he gave up a home run in the second and fourth outings, and none in the other two, with a six-strikeout game coming in his third appearance. Turnbull struck out three hitters in each of two other outings and just one in a 5.2-inning appearance against the Red Sox. He was dinged for seven earned runs against the Rays in his first outing and five in that Boston game, but held the Blue Jays to just one run in the six-strikeout start, then allowed three to Cleveland. Turnbull is not a good pitcher, but he is not overly prone to getting beat up too badly, thanks to his generally good ability to keep home runs in check. The Brewers are limited for power but would have the opportunity to create runs and drive the ball against a pitcher who allows a lot of contact at the plate. This is not an ideal spot for Brewers bats, but they could get there in a baseball sense and they are not overly expensive. Milwaukee targets include Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker a pair of scuffling lefties atop the projected lineup. The matchup for both hitters is fairly strong in terms of potentially creating runs and getting involved, but neither hitter has been good for home run power so far this year. Yelich has three long balls and Winker is stuck at zero. Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez are home run hitters without question, Adames has four this year and Tellez has seven in just 83 plate appearances, posting a .314 ISO with a 126 WRC+ along the way, but Turnbull has them at just a 2.34 and 2.90 in our home run model, which is somewhat below the high-20s marks being pulled in by elite Braves bats tonight. The Brewers will need to sequence to create runs, they are not terrible at that, but the on-base percentage for the overall lineup is .311. William Contreras has been involved and gets on base at a .397 clip so far this season, the best mark on the team for on-base percentage leads to the second-best mark for run creation, the catcher has a 131 WRC+ so far this year. He is eclipsed just barely by the 135 held by Brian Anderson who has had a good start to the year with five homers and a .241 ISO. Anderson costs just $3,500/$3,300 with third base and outfield eligibility on both sites tonight. Brice Turang is a rookie with decent speed and moderate power, he is projected to hit seventh ahead of Joey Weimer and Blake Perkins, who are replacement-level pieces at this point. While they are showing little in the way of power potential, the Brewers lineup would be somewhat in play from 1-7 tonight.
Play: some Eric Lauer, some Brewers stacks/bats but temper expectations for power
Update Notes:
New York Yankees (+113/3.14) @ Minnesota Twins (-122/3.43)
The Yankees and Twins will meet on another cold Minnesota night in what is looking very much like a potential pitching duel. The game is carrying a slate-low 6.5 run total, with the Yankees landing at 3.14 implied runs and the Twins at just 3.43. Part of the low total is probably due to the game environment, and the other can be attributed to a matchup between two good pitchers. Minnesota starter Joe Ryan will be on the bump to face the Yankees, he has a 3.26 xFIP with a 3.24 ERA over his first four starts and 25 innings this season. Ryan has struck out a fantastic 30.5% of opposing hitters, generating a 13.8% swinging-strike rate and walking just 4.2% with a 0.76 WHIP, elite numbers if he manages to maintain that level of production. Ryan has given up premium contact when hitters have managed to connect, however, he has a 4.21% home run rate allowed on a 50.8% hard-hit rate with a 91 mph average exit velocity allowed. The righty could play into individual power for New York with those marks for contact, but he was very good overall at limiting hard hits, with just a 35.4% rate. Ryan costs $10,500/$11,000 and seems like a good play who could go under-owned against the free-swinging and diminished Yankees lineup. New York has Aaron Judge over the line in our home run model by a wide margin at 14.37 and Anthony Rizzo at 9.98, but they are not showing much power beyond the excellent pairing atop the lineup. Judge is slashing .244/.340/.500 with a .256 ISO and a 130 WRC+, his hit tool will absolutely come around as the plate appearances pile up, he is justifiably expensive in this matchup but could also provide strikeouts to Ryan. So far this year, Judge has struck out at a 33% clip, up from the 25.1% he had for all of last season. Leadoff man Anthony Volpe is a speedy rookie with eight stolen bases to his credit despite just a .326 on-base percentage. Volpe has created runs 10% below average but is coming on over the last week or so, he has two home runs and remains relatively cheap for someone in his position in this batting order. Still, the matchup against Ryan may put the rookie on his heels tonight. Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu are good options in the heart of the order, they have created runs 28% and 51% better than average over 92 and 76 plate appearances respectively. LeMahieu in particular is off to an encouraging start after back-to-back down seasons. The infielder is slashing .299/.382/.507 with two homers and a .209 ISO so far this year. Franchy Cordero had a nice 10 days or so to start the year, the DFA is in the mail with Cordero at .174/.208/.457 and a 78 WRC+ overall this year though, this is not a strong option but he can drive the ball from time to time. Cordero is more likely to strike out three times than he is to hit a home run tonight. Oswaldo Cabrera rounds out the lineup in the seven spot, with Jose Trevino and Aaron Hicks projected to hit eighth and ninth. Catcher Kyle Higashioka would be very much in play if he starts over Trevino, Hicks is a tough ask at any price at this point in his career, but $2,100 in the Yankees lineup with wraparound correlation to Judge and Rizzo would be compelling with any name in the slot. Overall, Vegas probably has this one correct, the Yankees are not looking like a great play on this slate.
Lefty Nestor Cortes is having a similar impact on the Twins’ upside for MLB DFS points tonight. The southpaw has a 4.87 xFIP but a 3.09 ERA with a 23.7% strikeout rate this season. Cortes has walked just 4.3% of hitters and has a 1.03 WHIP while limiting hard hits to just 34.4% and home runs to 2.15%. A ridiculous array of arm angles and release points, as well as just good stuff overall, keeps Cortes in business on the mound, he has had to adjust to the timing of the pitch clock, but he was always very good at keeping hitters off balance by pitching quickly then slowing down before speeding up again and changing an arm angle or release point, he is the modern definition of a longtime baseball role, the Crafty Lefty. Cortes is pulling in a good projection for his $9,900/$10,500, he looks like a slightly better option on DraftKings for the salary but could go under-owned at his FanDuel price against a team with an average current-year strikeout rate of 25.6% in the projected lineup. The Twins are somewhat in play in small doses, similarly to the Yankees this seems like a spot that Vegas has nailed down, and the low run totals are not great for MLB DFS. Still, the Twins are probably on the better side of this one in facing Cortes not Ryan, and they remain very cheap for their talents. Donovan Solano leads off for $2,900/$2,400, he is a mix-and-match piece but if he is in the leadoff role his correlation with Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton makes him a compelling addition to a stack at those prices. Correa costs just $4,800/$2,900 for his early season struggles, FanDuel in particular has forgotten the shortstop’s long track record for success, just last year Correa had 22 home runs in 590 plate appearances with a 140 WRC+, which does not add up to a $2,900 shortstop. Buxton has also not been great early this year but has a well-established star-caliber track record. The outfielder costs just $5,100/$3,000, he has three home runs and a 98 WRC+ with a .179 ISO, all of which will increase as time goes on. Jose Miranda is slashing .236/.299/.258 with a .022 ISO and is better suited to hit lower in the lineup, yesterday the Twins had Jorge Polanco moved up in the batting order, which makes sense because Polanco is the better player. Miranda costs $3,000/$2,500, and Polanco costs $4,000/$3,200, both are in play when going to this team but Polanco is preferred. Over his first 18 plate appearances since returning from a lingering knee issue that ended his season in 2022, Polanco has slashed .389/.389/.667 with a .278 ISO, a home run, and a 196 WRC+ in the wildly irrelevant sample. This is a player who has both power and speed in his ledger across his MLB career, he can be rostered with roughly as much confidence as Correa and Buxton in most cases. Ryan Jeffers has power and costs $3,700/$2,800 at the catcher spot, he has a home run and a .250 ISO in his 32 plate appearances this year. Joey Gallo has been reminding everyone who he really is after a rough stretch in New York. Gallo has been repeatedly featured in this space and delivered yet another home run last night. He now has six homers in 44 plate appearances to go with his 33.3% barrel rate and 79.2% hard-hit for the year, he has also walked at a 15.9% clip, which is in line with his career. Gallo has a terrible reputation because he swings and misses so aggressively, his 39.8% was bad even in our opinion last year, but he crushes the ball when he makes contact, and actually has an elite eye at the plate, his career walk rate is 14.9%. Gallo may get this start even with a lefty on the mound, though that is not ideal for him, the best situation would be to get a few plate appearances against right-handed relief pitching. Willi Castro and Michael A. Taylor round out the projected lineup.
Play: Joe Ryan aggressively, Nestor Cortes Jr., minor shares of Twins bats and Yankees bats.
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (+109/3.42) @ Chicago Cubs (-117/3.65)
With apologies to Succession’s Greg the Egg for stealing his bit, San Diego has a “Quad-Squad” of their own in the form of four star-caliber hitters who open their top-heavy lineup. The team will be in Chicago tonight to face possibly the best pitcher the Cubs have had since Henry Rowengartner (continued apologies, this time to real starters Kerry Wood and Mark Prior). Justin Steele takes the mound tonight riding tall on a 25.3% strikeout rate with a 3.57 xFIP and a sparkling 1.44 ERA. Steele has been elite, he has just an 0.88 WHIP and has limited hard hits to an outrageously low 25.8% with a 3.2% barrel rate in very early returns. The lefty was good last year as well, he made 24 starts and threw 119 innings, pitching to a 3.48 xFIP with a 3.18 ERA and a 24.6% strikeout rate. Steele’s swinging-strike rate has bumped up from 10.1% last year to 12.6% so far this season, which has already boosted his strikeouts a bit while having an impact on the premium contact numbers as well. It is important to remember that swinging strikes are also something of an indicator of potential to create bad contact for hitters, a swing and miss is very close to off-center contact that results in weak hits. Steele has impressive numbers for his season but this is a tough matchup for the young starter, he is an interesting MLB DFS option for $10,100/$11,400. The FanDuel price will almost certainly render Steele under-owned on the blue site, he is a sturdy SP1 option at the DraftKings price and there is good cause to believe that he can get through the Padres tonight. Still, the team’s top-four is perhaps the best group in baseball over the long term. Fernando Tatis Jr. is slashing just .167/.211/.333 with a .167 ISO and one home run since rejoining the team 19 plate appearances ago, he is a superstar who costs $5,600/$4,300 and should be played when stacking Padres. Juan Soto costs $5,500 on DraftKings, which is roughly correct, his $3,100 on FanDuel is wildly wrong. Sure, Soto is slashing .198/.369/.383 with a .185 ISO so far, and he had a down year in his previously elite hit tool last year as well, but he is still creating runs 14% better than average, he still is striking out just 14.5% of the time while walking 20.3% of the time and he has a 15.8% barrel rate with a 56.1% hard-hit mark, absolutely elite numbers. Soto will hit, play him where and when he is cheap and reap the rewards. Manny Machado lands in the exact same bucket. Machado is a superstar third baseman who is priced down to just $4,800/$3,200, he is too cheap on both sites due entirely to early-season struggles. Machado is slashing .220/.250/.286 with a 49 WRC+ over 96 plate appearances. The next 500 or so will be better. Xander Bogaerts has been the team’s best bat, he costs $5,500/$3,600 which is fair for a shortstop who has created runs 67% better than average this season and 34% better than average last year. Bogaerts is an elite shortstop option who can be played aggressively against anyone. Nelson Cruz was formerly a lock against basically any lefty, he could deliver against Steele tonight, but this is not 2016 and Cruz is no longer (checks notes)… 35?! At age 42, Cruz is finally showing his age, slashing .255/.278/.431 with two home runs and a .176 ISO in his 54 tries, but there is still an any-given-day monster lurking in his bat against lefties. Jake Cronenworth is a serviceable infielder with a fair price tag at $3,900/$3,000. He beats out Ha-Seong Kim, Austin Nola, and Jose Azocar for a final spot in a stack, but probably falls behind Cruz in this spot. The primary focus is on the “Quad-Squad.”
The hometown Cubs have been better than advertised to start the year, the team has the power and talent to be frisky at the plate all season, while their pitching has a longer way to go. Chicago will be facing Blake Snell tonight, a lefty veteran who has been in typically frustrating form to start 2023. Snell has made four starts and covered 18 innings, he has a 4.84 xFIP and a 6.00 ERA with a bad 46.2% hard-hit rate and a 13.5% barrel rate allowed. He has given up a 4.65% home run rate in the small sample but was better for limiting power last year when he posted a 2.06% home run rate in 128 innings. The southpaw has always been reliable for strikeouts when pitching healthy, he has a 24.4% strikeout rate this season but that is notably down from the elite 32% he posted last year. He has also had a major issue with walks throughout his career that has been extended in early returns this season. Snell has walked 15.1% of opposing hitters in his four starts, way up from the already ugly 9.8% clip from last year. There is a ceiling score in reach on the back of strikeout potential for Snell, and he costs just $8,500/$7,600 against a team with a 26.4% current-year strikeout rate from their two through seven hitters. The pitcher looks like a mid-range option on the board tonight, he projects well for his salary but could have issues with some of Chicago’s right-handed bats and hitters who are good at avoiding strikeouts. The Cubs lineup opens with Nico Hoener who is excellent with just a seven percent strikeout rate this year. The infielder costs $5,100/$3,700 and has two home runs and nine stolen bases while slashing .355/.400/.473 with a 142 WRC+. Dansby Swanson has hit no home runs but has created runs 19% better than average and has a long track record of elite power and speed at the shortstop position. Swanson has barreled the ball 9.3% of the time this year, he was at 10.8% with a 46.1% hard-hit rate when he hit 25 home runs last year, this is likely just happenstance. Ian Happ is slashing .307/.417/.507 with a .200 ISO and a 154 WRC+ over 91 plate appearances, he is another strong bat in this underrated lineup. Happ hit .271/.342/.440 with 17 home runs and nine steals last year. The Cubs have power and speed throughout the batting order which is true for cleanup hitter Seiya Suzuki, who has a home run but no steals so far this year. Suzuki hit 14 home runs and stole nine bases in 2022, and he is slashing .324/.439/.441 with a 150 WRC+ in his 41 plate appearances this year. Patrick Wisdom has a team-leading 7.29 in the home run model, he has hit nine to start the season while slashing .256/.310/.679 and creating runs 60% better than average. Cody Bellinger is now sitting at .300/.380/.550 with a .250 ISO and a 152 WRC+ over 92 plate appearances, even the MLB DFS sites are taking notice and this is starting to get real. Bellinger is priced at $4,100, which is still too cheap on DraftKings, and $3,600 on FanDuel. Trey Mancini is the first hitter int he projected batting order who has not created runs above average this year, which is true for each of the final three hitters. Mancini has a good track record for power and should come around over time, he is a playable part at his cheap pricing. Yan Gomes and Nick Madrigal are positional price and popularity mix-and-match pieces.
Play: Justin Steele, Cubs bats/stacks, Padres top-6 bats/stacks, minor shares of Snell
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+157/3.94) @ Los Angeles Angels (-172/5.17)
The lousy Athletics had two players hit a bunch of home runs to bolster their score last night, with Brent Rooker and Jesus Aguilar apparently offended about what we said about them in yesterday’s column. We will gladly double-down on the notion that Rooker is a flawed quad-A player with holes in his swing who will not sustain success at the Major League level. Over 59 plate appearances so far this year he has not provided evidence to support that case, however, he is slashing .333/.441/.729 with a 220 WRC+ and a .396 ISO, mashing six home runs. Rooker has made 329 plate appearances in the Show, including that sample, he has 16 total home runs with a .222/.316/.438 triple-slash, and a 29.2% strikeout rate, but he has produced a healthy .215 ISO and a 110 WRC+ that cannot be taken lightly. There is certainly power here, what else there is remains to be seen. Rooker and his lesser teammates will be facing Griffin Canning tonight, which could play well for the lousy lineup. Canning has struck out 19.5% over 10.1 innings in two starts this year, posting a 4.79 xFIP and allowing a 10.3% barrel rate. In 62.2 innings in 2021, the righty had a 22.4% strikeout rate and a 4.72 xFIP, he is not special on the mound but he projects into the mid-range on matchup alone for $6,400/$8,800. The FanDuel price is approaching unplayable levels, but Canning is an option as a cheap SP2 on DraftKings. The Athletics are better for one-offs like Rooker than they are for team stacks, even with Canning on the mound this team has just a 3.94-run implied team total. Playable bats in the projected lineup other than Rooker include Esteury Ruiz, who has five steals and a 103 WRC+, Ryan Noda, who hits lefty and has two home runs and a 132 WRC+ in 66 plate appearances, and Jace Peterson who flashes infrequent left-handed power potential. Shea Langeliers is a veteran catcher where they are required, he has four home runs and a .203 ISO with a 103 WRC+ this season, and Conner Capel has a 113 WRC+ with four steals while slashing .306/.358/.367 over 53 plate appearances. Tony Kemp and Kevin Smith round out the lineup.
This is where things get very interesting. Rookie Mason Miller has dazzling stuff, including a fastball that averages around 100 mph and reaches the 103-105 mph level. Miller has a filthy sweeper-slider to go with the fastball and he has posted absolutely elite numbers in the minor leagues and is a darling of the Stuff+ community. Stuff+ measures the individual effectiveness of pitches, by some measures, Miller ranked next to only Shohei Ohtani and Jacob deGrom based on his lone start from last week. Miller covered 4.1 innings, facing 18 Cubs hitters and striking out five while walking one in his debut, he did not factor into the decision but was charged with just two earned runs on four hits. He faces a challenge in the Angels lineup today, there are strikeouts available, and even their elite bats have a tendency to strike out aggressively, but Miller is also giving a big bump to the Angels’ already strong power. The righty is still priced at just $5,700 on the DraftKings slate, where he should be crushingly popular in this matchup, he is a $7,500 option on FanDuel where he should be similarly popular. The Angels can be rostered as well, this is a firm both-sides option on this slate for MLB DFS, with four of the top five hitters over a 10 in our home run model. Taylor Ward is carrying a 10.49, he has three home runs but has slipped to just an 86 WRC+ and a .314 OBP so far this season, he was far better last year and should come around for both correlated scoring and individual upside as the year goes on, for now he is too cheap hitting ahead of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Each of the superstars has hit five home runs this year, Trout has a 183 WRC+ and Ohtani is at 124, they are elite options at any price against any pitcher, these will be very fun matchups to watch tonight. Anthony Rendon drops to an 8.58 in our home run model – Trout was at 16.92 and Ohtani 14.96 – but he is cheap in the cleanup spot and warrants attention. Hunter Renfroe is the final bat above the magic number for home run upside, he has a 13.50 in the home run model and has put six on the board in his 99 plate appearances this year. Renfroe has a 50.7% hard-hit rate but his barrels have slipped to just 4.2%, down from 10.9% for the full season last year early on, when the barrels come around the ball will start traveling over the wall regularly. Luis Rengifo and Brandon Drury are capable bats who can take most pitchers deep, Rengifo hit 17 underappreciated home runs last year, Drury was more in the public eye with 28 and he got back on the board last night for his third homer of 2023. Matt Thaiss catches and prospect Zach Neto rounds out the batting order for Los Angeles.
Play: Angels stacks/bats, Mason Miller (not in the same lineups, dummy), maybe Oakland one-offs around the power core
Update Notes:
Kansas City Royals (+126/4.68) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-137/5.43)
The Royals and Diamondbacks will battle in the desert again tonight, with Arizona pulling down a healthy implied team total against righty Brady Singer. The Royals are not getting the same treatment, but their 4.68 implied total is not awful in an outing against righty Ryne Nelson. Nelson costs $7,500/$8,400, he has posted just a 15.4% strikeout rate with a 5.10 xFIP and a 4.40% home run rate allowed in his four outings and 22 innings this season. Nelson is a well-regarded pitching prospect, but he has struggled for quality this year and he faces a team loaded with power potential and premium contact bats. Nelson is not a strong option on this slate, while the Royals may go somewhat overlooked. Bobby Witt Jr. has a 99 WRC+ with a .200 ISO, four home runs, and five stolen bases, he leads off for $5,000/$3,300 with shortstop and third base eligibility on the blue site. Witt hits in front of a dynamite power core that includes MJ Melendez, Sal Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and to some degree, Franmil Reyes. Melendez has a 17.8% barrel rate and a 62.2% hard-hit but just two home runs this season, Perez has scuffled along and not generated his typically excellent premium contact, putting just two home runs on the board, but he has a significant track record, and Pasquantino has turned his 52.2% hard-hit rate into four home runs and a .241 ISO so far. The top hitters are not great for sequencing and run creation, however, and only Pasquntino sits above average at a 154 WRC+, Melendez is at 73 and Perez 79. Lefty Michael Massey has been bad this year in his 62 plate appearances, he has a -17 WRC+ meaning he has been 117% worse than average creating runs, the Royals would have been better off just taking an out in his plate appearances so far this year. Franmil Reyes has a 17.2% barrel rate and a 51.7% hard-hit rate with two home runs, he hit 14 in 473 tries last year with an advanced contact profile that included an 11.3% barrel rate. Reyes was left out of the DraftKings player pool yesterday but returns for just $2,700 on this slate, he is a $2,500 option on FanDuel. The bottom third of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired, Kyle Isbel, Nicky Lopez, and Jackie Bradley Jr. are not strong MLB DFS plays, but any hitter in the group can offset price and popularity if necessary as an individual.
The hometown Diamondbacks should see Christian Walker return to the lineup after a night off. They are facing Brady Singer who came into this season with healthy expectations for another step forward after encouraging signs last year. Singer has faltered with just a 20.4% strikeout rate so far this year, though he has pitched to a 3.89 xFIP under the surface of his atrocious 8.14 ERA. The righty has allowed far too much premium contact, however, which could be an indication that something is not quite right. Singer does not look playable until we actually see a course correction, he has allowed a ridiculous 97.6 mph average exit velocity and a 14.7% barrel rate that has amounted to a 67.6% hard-hit rate with a 5.38% home runs allowed rate. This is not a good situation and it is playing into Arizona’s power, even as a contrarian play for a low salary it is difficult to have faith in this version of this pitcher. Diamondbacks bats are the preferred play but they will probably be popular in this spot. Josh Rojas is slashing .293/.341/.373 with two steals but just a 96 WRC+ and a .080 ISO, he is fine for correlated scoring at a fair price. Ketel Marte costs $4,600/$3,000, both sites have him priced too low. Marte has a 115 WRC+ and a .200 ISO with two home runs and he is slashing .282/.322/.482 after a slightly slow start, this is a bargain on a good player atop this lineup. Corbin Carroll has a 10.9% barrel rate and a 43.8% hard-hit rate over 91 plate appearances and he has created runs 24% better than average while stealing bases when he gets on. Carroll has eight steals on the season and four home runs, he is a highly-regarded young player who is also too cheap at $4,700/$3.200. Walker has three home runs and, as we have mentioned on almost a daily basis, hit 36 last year, his power will come around and he is another cheap bat all the way down at $3,200 on DraftKings. He costs $3,100 on the blue site and is in play for first base shares across the industry. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is slashing .256/.287./.378, his WRC+ will climb when his on-base percentage returns to nearer to last year’s .343 mark. Pavin Smith is a cheap low-owned option if he plays, Gabriel Moreno has a home run as a cheap catcher but is not an overly strong play, the better late options are Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo. Thomas has two home runs but just a 58 WRC+ and a .167 ISO, his 9.3% barrel rate and 50% mark for hard hits suggest there is more to come, Perdomo’s turnaround has been widely publicized and remains ongoing.
Play: Diamondbacks stacks/bats, Royals stacks/bats
Update Notes:
St. Louis Cardinals (-104/4.55) @ San Francisco Giants (-104/4.55)
The slate’s final game is a non-competitive situation for pitching. The Giants are starting opener John Brebbia, who is a strong bullpen arm with a 37.5% strikeout rate, but he will not go more than two innings. The Cardinals have Jake Woodford on the mound, he costs $5,000/$6,500 for a reason, he is not a good pitcher. Woodford has a 4.97 xFIP and a 13.6% strikeout rate over 19.1 innings this year, he made one start and threw 48.1 innings last season, posting a 4.18 xFIP and a 12.8% strikeout rate. Woodford has yieled premium contact so far this year as well, opposing hitters have a 60.3% hard-hit rate with a 93.5 mph average exit velocity, amounting to a 6.82% home run rate allowed. The Giants have an upside for home run hitting on this slate, and the Cardinals lineup is just generally good, both teams are in play for stacks and individual hitters.
St. Louis leadoff man Lars Nootbaar has a much-discussed ability to drive the ball for premium contact, he was a darling of “sleeper” articles for redraft leagues before getting injured early in the season, he has now made 40 plate appearances and is slashing .276/.475/.517 with a .241 ISO and two home runs. Paul Goldschmidt is slashing .277/.394/.434 and creating runs 34% better than average, he is followed in the projected lineup by a different Nolan than his mirror image from across the infield at third base, this time Nolan Gorman, not Nolan Arenado slots in third in the lineup, in what is a better stacking of hitters from a righty-lefty-righty perspective. Everyone seemingly forgot about Gorman coming into this season, he is still too cheap at just $4,700/$3,500 at second base, this is an elite hitter who arrived fully formed last year, he is a $5,000+ player on DraftKings. Gorman is slashing .310/.390/.634 with a .324 ISO and a 173 WRC+ and he has six home runs on the board as well as a 17.6% barrel rate and a 54.9% hard-hit mark. Arenado in the cleanup spot for $5,500/$3,200 is a bargain on both sites, but it is aggressively cheap on FanDuel. Arenado has been slow to find his full form so far in 2023, but there are no concerns here, he is very much in play. Willson Contreras is an elite catcher option for $4,700/$3,100; Alec Burleson is cheap in the outfield and can drive the ball and create runs; Paul DeJong is back in this lineup at a cheap $2,500 price on both sites at shortstop; and Jordan Walker and Tommy Edman round out the projected lineup with an embarrassment of riches. The free-swinging home team will have options like LaMonte Wade Jr. and Michael Conforto at the top of the lineup on the left side against Woodford. Wade has a 137 WRC+ for the season in his 71 plate appearances, hitting two home runs with a 13.5% barrel rate in the small sample. Conforto has had four home runs so far in his comeback, but is slashing just .193/.333/.404, though his .211 ISO and 108 WRC+ are keeping him afloat and he is cheap at $4,000/$3.200. Mitch Haniger returned to the lineup last nigh, providing a big boost along with fellow returnee Joc Pederson, the duo has major power on either side of the plate, Haniger hit 11 home runs in 247 tries last year, Pederson had 23 in 433 opportunities. JD Davis hit another one out of the yard last night, he now has five home runs and is slashing .304/.347/.551 with a .246 ISO since earning the full-time role. Mike Yastrezemski and Thairo Estrada are good players to find at the bottom of the lineup, Estrada in particular is intriguing as a wraparound option with power and speed. Brandon Crawford is a moderately interesting play against a weak righty while Blake Sabol is projected to close out the lineup. Both of these teams make compelling cases for more shares than the field will have in the last game of the evening.
Play: Giants stacks/bats, Cardinals stacks/bats.
Update Notes:
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