An eight-game MLB DFS slate gets started at 7:10 ET on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight with a fairly slim pitching board and a significant amount of power potential across a number of games. The outlier is, of course, a 10.5-run total in Vegas for the contest between the Athletics and Royals. Kansas City was featured in our power index for their upside tonight as the team with the highest implied run total in the odd duck of a game, but several potentially very interesting options are available as alternatives to a very inexpensive Royals lineup that should wind up fairly popular industrywide.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Summary – 5/6/23
Oakland Athletics (+151/4.66) @ Kansas City Royals (-165/5.97)
The Athletics ruined a lot of nights last night with a big power outburst from several of the team’s less-than-popular bats in a bad outing by Royals’ starter Brad Keller. The Athletics are pulling in a healthy run total in tonight’s game against Brady Singer, but it does not approach the nearly six-run mark that the team on the other side is getting, Oakland remains the lesser of these two options. Singer has made six starts this season, he has an atrocious-looking 8.49 ERA but just a 3.94 xFIP for his efforts to this point. The righty has been awful with allowing premium contact, opposing hitters have a 12.8% barrel rate with a 59.6% hard-hit rate so far this year and they have generated 94.8 mph of average exit velocity. Singer’s lousy 4.51% home run rate seems like it is actually strong, given those ridiculous power marks it should probably be a fair bit higher. The righty has numbers that are badly skewed by a five-inning start in which he allowed four home runs to the Braves, he has actually been good in limiting power to just one home run each in two other starts and has had three outings without giving up a long ball. Singer was good in two of those starts, the other saw him allow five runs on six hits while walking three and striking out only four. Now in his third full season in the Show, Singer is looking to build on nice strides he made last season in bumping his strikeout rate from 22.4% with a nine percent walk rate that he put up in 2021 to just a 5.6% walk rate with a strong 24.2% strikeout mark. Singer had a 3.30 xFIP with a 3.23 ERA and was actually quite good over 153.1 innings last year, though he did give up too many hard hits at 40.9%. At $7,000/$7,500 there are crazier notions than Singer having a good start against a terrible Athletics lineup, he is not entirely out of play despite the early struggles. Esteury Ruiz is slashing .276/.346/.358 with a 107 WRC+ and 15 stolen bases at the top of the lineup, his speed is interesting if he continues to put the ball in play and get on base, but Ruiz is mostly a correlated scoring option who is somewhat lacking for support. Ryan Noda has a 149 WRC+ with a .195 ISO and three home runs in 98 plate appearances. The left-handed first baseman has a 9.3% barrel rate and a 44.2% hard-hit mark but he is striking out at an aggressive 34.7% clip, his .408 on-base percentage has been supported by an outstanding 21.4% walk rate to this point. Noda is an interesting bat for $2,800/$3,000 if rostering Athletics in groups. Brent Rooker hit his 10th home run of the season last night, he is now slashing a ridiculous .333/.442/.726 with a .393 ISO and a 218 WRC+ over 104 plate appearances. Rooker has had an outstanding month that no one will ever be able to take away from him, it is very likely to be the absolute best of his MLB career. Rooker is 28 and will be 29 in November, he was formerly the 35th overall pick in the competitive balance round of the draft in 2017 and he received a significant opportunity to make it to the Show while with the Twins. Rooker hit 22 home runs in 568 plate appearances in AA in 2018 while striking out 26.4% of the time. In 2019 he hit 14 home runs in 274 opportunities in AAA while striking out 34.75% of the time. He reached the Show in 2020 for 21 plate appearances in a weird year then bounced between the big club and AAA in 2021, making 213 Major League plate appearances with nine home runs and a .196 ISO while striking out 32.9% of the time and he hit 20 in AAA with a 30% strikeout rate and a quality 14.2% walk rate. Rooker played for San Diego’s AAA club in 2022, he hit 19 home runs with a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 13.6% walk rate before moving to Kansas City’s system and hitting another nine with a 27.2% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate. He made 36 plate appearances and hit no home runs in the Majors last year. And now, this. Rooker would have arrived in full prior to his age-28 season if he were not an entirely flawed hitter. The slugger has the power to drive the ball, unquestionably, but he is benefitting from a somewhat inexplicable 22.1% strikeout rate with a 15.4% walk rate that makes more sense. Rooker has a 36% whiff rate or worse against all types of pitches this season, his strikeout rate does not align and will climb which will cut into all of this hitter’s production across the board, including his highly beneficial .340 batting average on balls in play. Rooker may hit more home runs this year, he may even get another one tonight, and he may even win a few slates, but a premium Major League bat he is not. Anyway, Rooker costs $3,700/$3,900 tonight, he is obviously a better buy on DraftKings. Ramon Laureano got in on the fun last night and now has three home runs with a .200 ISO in his 87 plate appearances. Laureano hit 13 homers and stole 11 bags last year in 383 tries and was a 14/12 player in 378 opportunities in 2021. The outfielder is cheap at $3,400/$2,900 if going to Athletics stacks tonight. J.J. Bleday has a home run in his 12 plate appearances this year, he had five in 238 opportunities in the Show last season and is a low-end prospect who ranked in the teens organizationally. Shea Langerliers is a good catcher power bat, he has a 9.9% barrel rate and six home runs with a .222 ISO in 110 plate appearances this year and he hit six homers with a .211 ISO in 153 last year. Langeliers is affordable at $3,600/$2,900 but will be one of the club’s more popular hitters if they track for ownership tonight. Tony Kemp, Jace Peterson, and Nick Allen round out the projected lineup, they have 63, 59, and -10 WRC+ marks over 114, 105, and 32 plate appearances. Kemp and Peterson have single-digit power in season-long statistics the past two seasons, they are low-end options who are not entirely inept.
The Royals will be facing lefty Ken Waldichuk and the team is carrying the slate’s highest implied run total at 5.97 in a game with a 10.5 total, a full run higher than the next two highest games and two runs above every other contest on the slate. This looks like another night of fireworks between lousy baseball teams. The Royals side continues to be the preferred option, despite the Athletics’ outburst last night they are much more lacking for true Major League talent. As flawed as they may be, Kansas City has a true star power hitter and a number of very capable young bats at various stages of development and performance. The best attribute the Royals have going for them is the matchup against struggling Waldichuk. The southpaw was excellent for strikeouts in the minors last year, ascending through the Yankees’ farm system despite control and command issues on the back of 30% and higher strikeout rates at each stop, then he went to Oakland in the Frankie Montas trade that has not worked out for either side. Waldichuk made seven starts in the Show late in 2022, allowing a 3.42% home run rate on 37.4% hard hits and a massive 12.1% barrel rate while pitching to a 4.26 xFIP under his 4.93 ERA and a 22.6% strikeout rate, all were fine for a rookie in a cup of coffee, but the lefty has been in a major downswing so far in 2023. Waldichuk has made six starts and thrown 31 innings, he has a 17.4% strikeout rate, a 7.7% swinging-strike rate, and a 21.7% CSW%. When he has thrown strikes he has made major mistakes that have led to home runs, he has a 6.94% home run rate and a 7.26 ERA with a 5.48 xFIP so far this season. Shockingly, the contact profile allowed has actually been fairly strong, Waldichuk has given up just an 87.3 mph average exit velocity on 33.7% hard hits and a 7.7% barrel rate, it’s simply that the pitches he leaves hanging tend to travel great distances in the other direction in short amounts of time. Waldichuk had two starts that were clean for home runs in his six outings, they came after giving up three home runs to the Angels in his first start and four to the Rays in his second. He threw 6.1 innings against the Orioles, allowing three runs on five hits while striking out four and walking three, then was actually effective in a five-inning start against the Cubs, striking out five and walking three but shutting the hard-hitting team out with five hits scattered. Then he gave up two more home runs to the Angels in a two-strikeout 5.1-inning clunker that was followed by a home run to the lowly Reds in a seven-strikeout performance over 5.2. If the pitcher can find his strikeout form and continue avoiding premium contact he could turn into something in the long term, for now, this is someone who can still be targeted with bats, particularly in such an offense-forward environment tonight. Bobby Witt Jr. sat out last night but should return tonight, he has not been good to start the year with just a 91 WRC+ but he does have five home runs and eight stolen bases with an 8.58 in our home run model. Edward Olivares checks in with a 6.42 and two home runs on the board in his 102 plate appearances. The cheap outfielder has a .170 ISO and a 105 WRC+ and he has put bat-on-ball fairly well to start the season with a 10.5% barrel rate and 40.8% hard-hit percentage. Vinnie Pasquantino has six home runs in the heart of the lineup, so does Sal Perez, they are a strong lefty-righty duo who have been the team’s two best power bats at a .240 and .214 ISO in their small samples this season. The pair of power hitters cost just $3,600/$3.300 and $4,200/$3,400, Perez is a very interesting catcher play on DraftKings tonight but he may end up very popular in this spot. MJ Melendez and Matt Duffy slot into the next two spots. Melendez has an outstanding 15.5% barrel rate with a 57.7% hard-hit percentage for the season but has managed just three home runs and a .164 ISO in an important reminder that premium contact is not the only ingredient. Melendez has a 7.84 in our home run model and he is an interesting option with catcher and outfield eligibility on both sites. He is also one of five players in the projected lineup with multi-position eligibility on at least one site, making the Royals a cheap, potentially powerful, and highly flexible lineup for stacking purposes. Of course, many of the names in the bottom of the lineup are not great, Duffy included. Over 51 plate appearances this year he has one home run and is slashing .348/.392/.478 with a .130 ISO while creating runs 40% better than average, but he was 22% below average with a .250/.308/.311 and a .061 ISO last year in 247 opportunities. Duffy was somewhat better in 2021, over 322 tries he slashed .287/.357/.381 with five home runs and eight stolen bases while creating runs two percent better than average, the right-handed hitter is not awful but he is not our favorite click in this lineup. All things considered, we would rather have Nick Pratto again in this spot, the former first-round pick went deep last night after being mentioned in this space several times this week. Pratto seems less likely to play in a same-handed matchup. Hunter Dozier, Maikel Garcia, and Nate Eaton round out the projected lineup with a 5.06, 2.43, and 3.21 in our home run model, the Royals’ quality is primarily from 1-6.
Play: Royals bats/stacks, Brady Singer in small value doses, Athletics bats/stacks
Update Notes: there appears to be minor disagreement about the risk of rain in this one, but temperatures remain in the high-80 to 90-degree range and the wind is still blowing, as long as a pop-up Midwestern storm does not hit the ballpark we should be in good shape. The Athletics lineup is confirmed as expected. The Royals lineup runs Witt-Olivares-Pasquantino-Perez-Garcia-Michael Massey, a left-handed second baseman who is not the Pratto we wanted if this team went to a lefty – Hunter Dozier–Freddy Fermin-Jackie Bradley Jr. the bottom of the lineup is not great but the matchup against Waldichuk remains solid.
Boston Red Sox (+137/4.34) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-149/5.27)
Boston draws Philadelphia lefty Bailey Falter tonight in what looks like a good spot for bats on both sides. The Red Sox are carrying just a 4.34-run implied team total, however, while Philadelphia checks in with a 5.27 mark as one of the more likely teams on tonight’s slate. Falter costs $7,500/$7,000 and has just a 16.3% strikeout rate with a 4.79 xFIP and 5.01 ERA over his 32.1 innings this season. Last year he was somewhat better with a 21.2% strikeout rate and 4.13 xFIP in 84 innings and 16 starts, but he has given up plenty of home run upside for MLB DFS scoring purposes with a 4.58% home run rate in 2022 and a 4.44% mark so far this year. Falter is not on the board as a pitching option, he is not cheap enough to support the low strikeout totals and the matchup is not a good one. The projected Red Sox lineup opens with lefty Alex Verdugo who strikes out at just a 12.5% rate this year and had a 13.4% mark in a full sample last season. Verdugo is a top-end correlated scoring player who is slashing .315/.382/.515 with a .200 ISO and five home runs while creating runs 45% better than average. Justin Turner slots in second in the lineup, he strikes out at just a 12.6% clip this season and was at 16.7% last year, these two hitters are not a good jumping-off point for a low-strikeout contact-oriented pitcher. Turner costs just $3,700/$2,800 and has created runs six percent better than average. We have covered how Rob Refsnyder is miscast hitting third against lefties despite moderate success in the split over the past two seasons. Refsnyder is a career journeyman for a reason, even his good numbers in the split do not support this role in a lineup, he has never hit for much power, as evidenced by a current-year .111 ISO in his 42 plate appearances against lefties. Refsnyder has been a correlated scoring play in this role, not much more, he is not off the table but knowing the nature of the click in a lineup is important. Rafael Devers has 11 home runs and a .311 ISO and he is somewhat cheap for him at $5,800/$4,100, at least on DraftKings. Devers is in play regardless of the handedness of the pitcher, Falter does not present a challenge to the stout third baseman who has a 15.2% barrel rate and 50.5% hard-hit percentage. Enrique Hernandez has just a 3.3% barrel rate and 33% hard-hit, he is another hitter with a glaring lack of power in the Red Sox lineup and he sits at just a .126 ISO with an 83 WRC+. Mastaka Yoshida has been excellent over the last few weeks, he is now slashing .315/.400/.537 with a .222 ISO while creating runs 56% better than average in his 125 MLB plate appearances. Yoshida has a 10.2% barrel rate and a 49% hard-hit rate for the season, he is the last prime bat in this lineup, but Connor Wong and Jarren Duran have both been useful in their small samples. Wong has three home runs and a .211 ISO and is a cheap sneaky catcher at $2,300/$2,900, Duran has been more visible playing every day the last few weeks and slashing .406/.444/.672 with a pair of home runs and four stolen bases.
The Phillies are facing Corey Kluber, who used to be very good at limiting premium contact and keeping hard hits in check. This season, that talent has evaporated for the veteran right-hander who may be reaching the end of a long track. Kluber has a 6.44 ERA and a 5.42 xFIP with a 20.6% strikeout rate and just a 9.2% walk rate this year. The righty has yielded a 44.4% hard-hit rate, up 10 percentage points from where he was in each of the past two seasons. That has led directly to a spike from a 6.9% barrel rate to 11.1%, 87.2 mph of average exit velocity to 90.2 mph, and a jump from a 2.90% home run rate to a 6.11% in his 29.1 innings and six starts in 2023. Kluber has gotten tattooed so far this season, he has allowed at least one home run in every start and has not been good for strikeouts or run prevention, it is very difficult to recommend the veteran as anything but a target for Phillies bats tonight. Kyle Schwarber checks in with a 10.68 in our home run model and seven on the board for the season despite slashing just .183/.305/.392. The big power hitter has a .208 ISO but just a 92 WRC+ in early action, his 11.4% barrel rate and 41.8% hard-hit marks are both fine, but they are well down from his 20.1% and 54.4% from last season. The sample remains small and Schwarber is cheap at $5,000/$3,100, he is in a great spot in any position in the batting order and gets a bump if he leads off again. Trea Turner costs $5,500/$3,300, he has three home runs and four stolen bases but has been relatively slow starting with just an 81 WRC+ and a bit of a WBC hangover. Bryce Harper costs $5,600/$3,700 with eligibility at first base in addition to his outfield positioning on the blue site. Harper has made just 13 plate appearances since his extremely fast return from injury, he is a star by any measure and stands a good chance of bending the slate tonight against Kluber. Nick Castellanos has four home runs and is slashing .315/.370/.504 with a 137 WRC+ and an 11.1% barrel rate, he has been very good in his return to form. Castellanos has struck out more than usual at a 26.8% clip so far this year, but the production is what matters with this player and he still costs just $4,600/$3,500. Bryston Stott and JT Realmuto are good positional plays in the middle infield and catcher, Stott has a .301/.329/.397 triple-slash with a 97 WRC+ and a pair of home runs, Realmuto has hit three home runs and has a .206 ISO with a 101 WRC+ and is always a good option behind the plate. Brandon Marsh should check back into the lineup after a night off last night, he has been excellent in the outfield this season. Marsh is slashing .326/.418/.611 with a .284 ISO and a 175 WRC+ while barreling 11.3% of his batted-ball events with a 46.8% hard-hit rate, he is another cheap Phillies hitter at $4,400/$3,100, the discounts later in the lineup help pay for stars up top with this team. Alec Bohm and Edmundo Sosa are also options from the last two spots, Bohm is the better overall hitter for $3,500/$3,000 with first and third base eligibility, he has three home runs and a 104 WRC+ so far this year but Sosa is outpacing him in a smaller sample with three home runs and a 119 WRC+. Sosa plays third base for just $2,300/$2,800 from site to site and can be included in a limited number of stacks of Phillies bats.
Play: Phillies stacks/bats, Red Sox stacks/bats
Update Notes: The Red Sox must be reading along, they move slap-hitting Refsnyder to the leadoff spot instead of the three-hole in the lineup, with a batting order that runs Refsnyder-Verdugo-Turner-Devers-Hernandez-Duran-Christian Arroyo–Raimel Tapia–Reese McGuire, Duran is in a good spot hitting sixth and Tapia has speed and moderate power upside for $2,100/$2,200 in the outfield. Schwarber leads off for the Phillies and the lineup is confirmed as expected.
Baltimore Orioles (+206/3.41) @ Atlanta Braves (-228/5.20)
A matchup against Spencer Strider has the Orioles rating as a lesser-than option once again, but the team overcame Max Fried last night and has been outstanding for much of the season. Strider is a different animal on the mound than his teammate, however, the relentless strikeout artist is superb at limiting contact and keeping hitters swinging in futility, he has a 41% strikeout rate and a 19% swinging-strike rate in 35 innings over six starts this season, remarkably improving on his already amazing numbers from last year. Strider made 20 starts in 2022 and struck out a nearly unheard-of 38.3% of Major League hitters as a rookie. He is simply one of the best in baseball right now and he should be rostered enthusiastically even against a tough opponent, even at $11,500/$11,400, Strider is the top projected pitcher on a fairly thin slate of options on the mound. The Orioles can be deployed in a contrarian sense once again, but expectations must remain low. Key Orioles hitters include Cedric Mullins, who has four home runs and 11 steals in the leadoff spot, righties Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle who are the team’s pair of star hitters right now with 12 combined home runs (4/8) and well above average run creation, and Anthony Santander who got involved with a pair of homers yesterday and now has five one the season. Kyle Stowers is very cheap hitting fifth for $2,100 on both sites, he has power in his bat for the extremely cheap price, Stowers hit three home runs in a 98-plate appearance cup of coffee last year but has zero in 17 tries with a .000 ISO so far this year. Adam Frazier and Gunnar Henderson have been up and down this season, Henderson is great at getting on base via the walk but has not done much else after coming up as a top prospect. Jorge Mateo is very interesting in all situations, he led off yesterday but should drop back down the lineup where he has been more capable the entire season. The outstanding shortstop is slashing .307/.357/.568 with six home runs and a 152 WRC+ while stealing 11 bases. Ramon Urias is underrated but is probably as overmatched as his teammates at the bottom of a lineup in a bad spot, this matchup favors Strider, he should be the more played of the two sides.
The Braves look like a good option at the plate as well, facing righty Kyle Bradish who has been just around league average so far in his short career. Bradish had a 21.8% strikeout rate and a 4.01 xFIP over 117.2 innings in 23 starts last season, he has a 19.7% strikeout rate in four starts this year but has pitched just 14.2 innings with a 1.84 WHIP and a 6.14 ERA obscuring his decent 4.19 xFIP. Bradish allows too much contact with a 51% hard-hit rate and 92 mph of average exit velocity this year and a 40.6% hard hit with 89.9 mph exit velocity last year, the Braves’ power-packed lineup could feast in this situation. The team does strike out aggressively, but the matchup leans in Atlanta’s favor and they have one of the highest implied totals on the slate. Ronald Acuna Jr. is slashing .352/.444/.578 with a .227 ISO and a 174 WRC+ with six home runs and 15 stolen bases. The superstar has a 15% barrel rate and a 53.3% hard-hit rate this year and he does not strike out aggressively like some of his counterparts at this level of production. Acuna is striking out just 14.6% of the time while drawing a 13.2% walk rate so far this season, which is another major step forward for the already outstanding superstar. Strong buy recommendations for Acuna even at $6,500/$4,600 tonight. Matt Olson has nine home runs with a .276 ISO and has created runs 37% better than average, he is somewhat outpacing right-handed third baseman Austin Riley, who has dipped a bit with just a .176 ISO so far this year. Riley is still creating runs 11% better than average, he has six home runs and is slashing .256/.345/.432, but he has just a 6.7% barrel rate in 145 plate appearances, which is way down from the 15.7% he posted last year. Riley will be fine, this is a minor blip that has helped lower his price to $5,200/$3,500. Sean Murphy is one of the best catchers in baseball at the dish, he has nine home runs and a massive 190 WRC+ that keeps him in the lineup on a daily basis. Murphy has a 25.4% barrel rate and a 47.9% hard-hit, he can absolutely be played where his position is not required. Eddie Rosario has three home runs in 99 plate appearances with a .172 ISO and a 90 WRC+, he has not been great but always comes cheap and low-owned in the middle of this lineup. Ozzie Albies is the more productive click later in the lineup, the second baseman is having another outstanding season early in 2023, he has nine home runs and a 138 WRC+ over 138 plate appearances and has raised his barrel rate from last year’s disappointing 5.4% to 13.6% in early returns. Albies is still far too cheap on DraftKings at $4,300/$3,500. Michael Harris II is expected to be back int he lineup after another night off last night with a bruised knee, Harris has missed most of this season’s action but is a solid power and speed play when he is in the lineup. Marcell Ozuna has five home runs with a .213 ISO and not much else this year, and Braden Shewmake rounds out the lineup as another quality rookie bat who made his debut last night. Shewmake costs the minimum on DraftKings but is missing from the FanDuel slate.
Play: Spencer Strider, Braves stacks/bats
Update Notes: the Orioles opted to hit Stowers eighth between Mateo and Urias, with Frazier sixth and Gunnar Henderson fifth behind the expected top half. The Braves lineup is mostly as expected, Michael Harris is in the lineup hitting eighth, Shewmake gives way to Vaughn Grissom in the ninth spot.
Milwaukee Brewers (+147/3.80) @ San Francisco Giants (-160/4.80)
Right-handed veteran Alex Cobb takes the hill for San Francisco tonight, he is having a limiting impact on the Brewers’ bats, and the team is carrying just a 3.80 implied total into this one. Cobb has been good to start the season, he has a 2.99 xFIP with a 2.43 ERA and a 23.4% strikeout rate in his six outings and 33.1 innings. Cobb has been excellent at limiting opportunities, so far this year he has walked just 2.8% of opposing hitters, down from an already good 6.8% in 2022, a season in which he had a 3.73 ERA and a sterling 2.89 xFIP with a 23.9% strikeout rate over 149.2 innings. Cobb is cheap at $9,000/$8,300, he projects in the upper-middle of a fairly thin board for pitching tonight and is playable at those prices from site to site. The righty is facing a Brewers lineup that has a collective 105 WRC+ against right-handed pitching this season but has largely struggled for power in the split with just a .160 ISO. The righty is excellent at keeping the ball on the ground, he has a 1.3-degree average launch angle allowed this year with a 2.13% home run rate and was at just a 1.8-degree mark last year and 3.0 the year before while keeping home runs below 1.5% both seasons. Cobb should be able to keep Milwaukee bats in check to a fair degree tonight, even if he does not have a slate-changing score on the mound he is unlikely to get completely destroyed or hand slate-winning upside to Brewers hitters. Christian Yelich is projected to lead off for $5,200/$3,200, he has a 92 WRC+ for the season with four home runs and a .134 ISO, his power outage has not changed much in the last few seasons but he still strikes the ball hard with regularity. Willy Adames fills a premium position for $5,400/$3,000, the shortstop is a major home run hitter who could be somewhat suppressed in this one, given the pitcher’s ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the park. Jesse Winker hits from the left side of the plate and was a good power hitter in Cincinnati two years ago with 24 home runs and a .251 ISO in 485 plate appearances, this year he has zero home runs and a .048 ISO in 74 tries. Rowdy Tellez is a capable left-handed masher who is one potential power threat on that side of the plate that Cobb will have to deal with, but again the ability to keep the ball down will likely overcome the hitter’s upside. Tellez costs $4,700/$3,200 and has a 5.83 in our home run model, he is typically reliably at or above the 10-mark. William Contreras and Brian Anderson are in play if stacking Brewers bats, but they are not overly appealing in a vacuum despite good starts to the year at 112 and 113 WRC+ over 101 and 124 plate appearances. Brice Turang is cheap and has four stolen bases but has not done much else with a 79 WRC+ in 90 plate appearances, Tyrone Taylor has right-handed power that is best remembered for a better matchup in the future, and Joey Wiemer is also on this team.
The Brewers and Giants switch places in our esteem this evening, with Milwaukee bats dipping significantly against Cobb and the Giants climbing to the very top of the Power Index with their opportunity against righty Colin Rea. The pitcher has made four starts and is holding a 4.48 xFIP with a 4.79 ERA and a 22% strikeout rate with a 9.8% mark for walks to this point. Rea has not been good at preventing runs and he has issued too many free passes early, but the biggest issue is the level of premium contact that the non-prospect righty allows. Rea has given up a 47.3% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate with 91.6 mph of average exit velocity leading to a 4.88% home run rate in the small sample. The 32-year-old Rea was a target for bats on arrival, he has pitched on multiple continents the last few seasons and is simply holding a place in the rotation until someone better is able to return or arrive. Even in an otherwise good outing against the Angels in his last start, Rea allowed two home runs in his five innings, though he did strike out nine in that game, one start after a pair of outings that saw him strike out two then one. He has allowed at least one home run in three of four starts this season, the righty is a target for hard-hitting Giants bats today. The projected batting order opens with LaMonte Wade Jr. who has quietly been mashing to start the season. Wade has six home runs and a .288 ISO with a 172 WRC+ in his 110 plate appearances and he has been finding excellent contact at the plate. Wade has a 15.0% barrel rate with a 43.3% hard-hit for the season, well up from the 9.5% and 33.7% he posted last year, which is driving the power for a player who still costs merely $3,100/$3,000 tonight and adds outfield eligibility to his first base positioning on DraftKings. Wade is a strong left-handed power bat to open the contest and he can be played from other positions in the lineup as well. Thairo Estrada costs $5,100/$3,400 as the most expensive player on the team on both sites and the only Giants player above $4,000 on the DraftKings slate, making the top power spot on the board an extreme value play for MLB DFS as well. Estrada has four home runs this year and he adds nine stolen bases to his MLB DFS point-creation tally. The infielder is eligible at second base and shortstop on both sites, he is slashing .339/.395/.500 with a .161ISO and has created runs 48% better than average in his 129 plate appearances, building on his breakout season from last year. Estrada is a very good correlated scoring option with mid-range individual upside as a positional one-off. JD Davis is projected to hit third in the lineup today, the slugger hit another home run last night and now has seven on the season with a .280/.352/.527 triple slash and a .247 ISO while creating runs 39% better than average on the back of a 10.8% barrel rate and 53.8% hard-hit, Davis has the profile of a significant power hitter and now has a full-time job but he still costs just $3,600/$3,100, he is too cheap on both sites. Joc Pederson is a major left-handed power bat who is something of a platoon specialist. Pederson is projected in the cleanup role tonight and is carrying a team-leading 15.25 in the home run model. The outfielder cost just $4,000/$3,100, he has three home runs and a .222 ISO in his 74 plate appearances this year, and he hit 23 in 433 with a .247 ISO last year, Pederson is a strong home run play on this slate. Mitch Haniger is another power-packed right-handed hitter who had 39 home runs in his last fully healthy season in 2021, he has a pair of them with a .250 ISO in 31 plate appearances since rejoining the lineup after yet another injury. If Haniger is in the Giants’ lineup he can be in yours. Michael Conforto is slashing just .187/.308/.330 with a .143 ISO but he does have four home runs this season after missing all of 2022. Conforto hit 14 home runs in a downswing in 479 plate appearances in 2021 that also saw his triple-slash dip to .232/.344/.384 with a .153 ISO, but he hit 27, 28, and 33 home runs the three seasons prior to the pandemic with more robust triple-slash numbers, don’t bet against the 30-year-old figuring this out at the dish. Blake Sabol has a 13.5% barrel rate and a 45.9% hard-hit rate in his 73 plate appearances, hitting five sneaky home runs with a .235 ISO as a very cheap catcher play who also has outfield eligibility on both sites. Brett Wisely has yet to hit a home run or do much at all in his 29 opportunities, he is slashing .074/.107/.074 with a .000 ISO and has created runs 148% worse than average with a -52 WRC+ in the unfairly tiny sample. Cal Stevenson has made just seven plate appearances this year, he did not hit for any power in 71 opportunities last year. This lineup will almost certainly come out different, the Giants love to mix things up, check the Overview column as lock approaches for any notes.
Play: Giants bats/stacks, Alex Cobb as a mid-range pitching option on both sites
Update Notes: The Brewers lineup runs Yelich-Winker-Adames-Tellez-Contreras-Anderson-Turang-Owen Miller-Weimer with Tyrone Taylor taking a seat and a very minor ding to the power average. The Giants lineup is confirmed mostly as expected, Joey Bart slots in for Sabol as a downgrade at the catcher spot, but the top six in this lineup remains solid and intact.
Washington Nationals (+112/4.60) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-122/5.01)
A matchup against Tommy Henry has tonight’s Nationals lineup looking like the potential “last night’s Athletics” breakout team tonight. The lousy Nationals have two hitters above average by WRC+ in the lineup tonight, but also an uncharacteristic handful of players around the magic number in our home run model, and they come very cheap across the industry. This is probably still not a great spot, the Nationals are cheap because they are a very lousy baseball team that has probably been underperforming even that expectation, but Henry has struck out only 9.3% of opposing hitters in his 9.2 innings and two starts this year while pitching to a 6.52 ERA and 7.08 xFIP with an 18.2% CSW%. The lefty made nine starts and threw 47 innings last year with a 10.2% walk rate, a 17.6% strikeout rate, and a 4.97 xFIP under a 5.36 ERA while giving up a 4.88% home run rate on 90 mph of average exit velocity. Henry is a target on the mound and the Nationals have some quality against lefties that we have explored in this space recently, the team is a fair amount better on this side of splits and they can throw right-handed hitters at Henry up and down the lineup. Alex Call is slashing .221/.320/.337 with a .115 ISO and three home runs and has a lousy contact profile, but in 38 plate appearances against lefties this year he has a 147 WRC+ with a .167 ISO and has kept the ball in play regularly. Jeimer Candelario leads the team with four home runs this season, he is one Nationals hitter who is not typically better against lefties, and he has a .053 ISO and a 39 WRC+ in the split this year with a 95 WRC+ in the split for his career. Joey Meneses and Stone Garrett are at 12.72 and 12.81 to lead this team in the home run model tonight. Meneses has one home run and a .069 ISO with a 71 WRC+ this year overall, he is at just a 45 WRC+ with a .075 ISO against lefties in 41 plate appearances but had a 201 WRC+ with a .310 ISO against them in 76 opportunities last year. Garrett has made just 14 plate appearances against lefties this year, he has a .364 ISO and a 215 WRC+ in the microscopic sample and one home run in 46 opportunities with a .143 ISO overall this year. Keibert Ruiz has been scuffling since we started referring to him as a good young catcher, he is now slashing .238/.304/.333 with a .095 ISO and may lose that title quickly, he has also not been good against lefties in limited action this year or last. Lane Thomas has two home runs and is slashing .270/.328/.378 with a 93 WRC+ he has a 162 WRC+ with a .125 ISO in 36 plate appearances against lefties this year. Michael Chavis has a .203 ISO for his career against left-handed pitching, though his run creation has been limited to 14% below league-average overall in that sample and he has been bad in 21 opportunities this year overall. Victor Robles has speed and an overall team-leading 110 WRC+ this year in 106 plate appearances, CJ Abrams rounds out the projected lineup with a thud. This is a bad team in a decent spot, act accordingly.
Nationals’ starter MacKenzie Gore has been the big bright spot for the organization so far in 2023. The southpaw has a 3.63 xFIP and a 3.77 ERA with a 29.5% strikeout rate over his 31 innings and six starts. Gore is a former top prospect who has put things together nicely early this season, but he is not flawless on the mound as evidenced by an ugly 13.6% walk rate and 1.42 WHIP. He has allowed just a 5.3% barrel rate and 38.7% hard hits so far this year, amounting to just a 2.27% home run rate on 87.8 mph of average exit velocity and a 7.9-degree average launch angle, the pitcher has been reliably keeping the ball down which has helped him stay out of trouble overall. Gore costs $8,700 as an easy option on the DraftKings slate, the FanDuel click is more challenging at $10,300. Arizona’s active roster has a 99 WRC+ against lefties this season and the team has not hit for a ton of power in the split, but that could also be a compiling effect from a few slow starts from right-handed power hitters. Gore is in play on both sites, but Diamondbacks bats can be rostered in moderate doses to counter the play, particularly on DraftKings where Gore should be a pretty popular play tonight. Ketel Marte has a 10.8% barrel rate with a 43.3% hard-hit percentage and has struck out just 14% of the time so far this season, pounding the ball with a .243 ISO and five home runs in his 121 plate appearances. Marte is climbing in price at $5,400/$3,200, but the FanDuel cost is still low for the productive second baseman. Emmanuel Rivera is slashing .409/.435/.500 with a 157 WRC+ in just 23 plate appearances this year, he hit 12 home runs while slashing .233/.292/.409 with a .176 ISO and 95 WRC+ in 359 plate appearances last year. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has just two home runs this season and is slashing .276/.325/.419 with a .143 ISO and 101 WRC+, he hit 21 home runs two year ago but the power has been mostly absent for the outfielder over his last 500 or so opportunities, he hit just five home runs all of last year. Christian Walker now has seven home runs and a .246 ISO this season, his WRC+ has soared to 117 and he is fully returned to form already after a slow few weeks in April, Walker has a team-leading 5.97 in our home run model. Evan Longoria and Corbin Carroll slot into the next two projected lineup spots on opposite ends of their careers. The veteran third baseman is slashing just .200/.246/.383 with three home runs and a .183 ISO while creating runs 35% worse than average so far, but he is cheap against a lefty tonight. The rookie outfielder has a .314/.381/.559 triple-slash with a .245 ISO and has created runs 53% better than average, he is an excellent play anywhere in the lineup, adding five home runs and 10 stolen bases to his MLB DFS points tally. Nick Ahmed, Gabriel Moreno, and Alek Thomas round out the projected lineup.
Play: MacKenzie Gore, Nationals stacks/bats with low expectations, Diamondbacks bats more the more popular Gore gets
Update Notes: Washington shakes things up a bit with Lane Thomas-Luis Garcia, a semi-capable and annoyingly named option in the infield-Meneses-Ruiz-Garrett-Dominic Smith a lousy left-handed hitter with the idea but no realization of power – Robles-Chavis-Ildemaro Vargas who we just learned is not named Ilderamo in his seventh season in the league. The Diamondbacks lineup includes Dominic Fletcher in the sixth spot, and does not feature Corbin Carroll, which is an overall downgrade to Arizona’s quality and gives a minor bump to Gore.
Los Angeles Dodgers (+118/4.06) @ San Diego Padres (-128/4.54)
Lefty Blake Snell is a roller coaster on the mound. The Padres starter has a 24.4% strikeout rate in his 29 innings and six starts this season, he had a 32% rate over 128 innings last year and a 30.9% in 128.2 the season before, so there has been a downturn in that department that does not have a corresponding dip in walk rate or other numbers to offset the lack of quality. Snell is walking 13.3% of opposing hitters and has allowed a 41.7% hard-hit rate with a 10.7% barrel rate and 89.4 mph of average exit velocity, amounting to a 4.44% home run rate. The southpaw has a 4.61 xFIP under an also lousy 5.28 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in the small sample this year. Snell was far better with a 3.21 xFIP last year and a 3.74 mark the season before, but the limited strikeouts and lack of other quality has exposed him so far this season. The veteran has allowed at least one home run in every start but his first of the year, giving up six total so far while striking out 33 of 135 hitters and allowing 17 earned runs. The starter comes at a fair price of just $8,800/$8,100, but it is mostly a faith-based click when rostering Snell against the elite Dodgers lineup that pounds left-handed pitching, it is not for the fainthearted and Snell projects only in the middle of the board tonight. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are a challenging duo atop the lineup, they are both excellent at drawing walks, Betts has a 13.8% walk rate and Freeman is at 11.4% so far this year, and both players limit strikeouts effectively while doing everything else at a star level over their full careers. Betts has a 132 WRC+ and Freeman has a 139 so far this year. Will Smith lands with four home runs and a 147 WRC+ this season and the catcher has struck out just 7.4% of the time this year and 16.6% last year while walking at a 12.3% clip so far in 2023. Max Muncy has drawn walks at a 19.8% pace this year and was at 15.9% for all of last season. Muncy has 12 home runs and a .389 ISO with a 166 WRC+ so far this year. If the theme for why Snell could be in trouble has not made itself clear by now, refer back to his walk-rate then re-read the last few sentences. The Dodgers have an outstanding opportunity to sequence and create runs against Snell tonight. Chris Taylor hits in the heart of the lineup against lefties, he is cheap at $3,200/$2,900 with multi-position eligibility but has been below average for most of this season. Taylor has five home runs and a .270 ISO so far, however, the power outburst is welcome and could be in play with this hitter in a good split tonight. James Outman has seven early home runs in 126 plate appearances, Miguel Vargas has created runs 20% better than average from late in the lineup despite otherwise scuffling, and Miguel Rojas rounds out this lineup with projected catcher Austin Barnes.
Right-handed Dodgers starter Dustin May has been somewhat enigmatic this season. May has made six starts and thrown 34.1 innings, pitching reliably deep into ballgames but his strikeouts have dipped from last year’s 22.8% in a small sample and 37.6% in a 23-inning sample in 2021. This season, May has struck out only 16.9% of opposing hitters and he has a 5.11 xFIP under his otherwise excellent 3.15 ERA. He has also been excellent at limiting power and premium contact, which was an attribute he had last year as well, the filthy horizontal movement on his pitches makes it difficult to square the ball against this pitcher. May has given up just a 6.2% barrel rate and a 0.74% home run rate, allowing only one long ball so far in six starts. Against the loaded top end of the Padres, the starter will have his work cut out for him, May projects fairly well but is still a somewhat reluctant click at $8,200/$9,300, his two-pitcher price and nature make him a better DraftKings option, but he is not out of play on the single-starter site either. Padres hitters, meanwhile, can always be rostered from the top half of the lineup at worst, but combining those four bats is an expensive exercise and there are better spots. Fernando Tatis went deep twice last night and has four home runs in 63 plate appearances while creating runs 18% better than average since his return, Manny Machado and Juan Soto have not found their full quality, but they are still stars and they have nine combined home runs. Soto has a 131 WRC+ which is absolutely fine despite his .228 batting average, his .397 on-base percentage has more than supported his declining price, Machado is also very cheap on both sites at $5,100/$2,900. Xander Bogaerts is a premium shortstop who somehow costs $4,900/$3,500 despite starring for the Friars early this season and a track record of sustained excellence. Bogaerts is a great buy for a player creating runs 37% better than average this year. Matt Carpenter has a 124 WRC+ and three home runs in 79 plate appearances with a .234 ISO but the comeback still seems like mostly an illusion. Carpenter can absolutely barrel a ball, his 18.2% rate shows his quality there, but he has just a 31.8% hard-hit rate this year. Jake Cronenworth has a 108 WRC+ in 132 plate appearances and the back end of the lineup has been lifted by the team’s rising tide, with Ha-Seong Kim, Trent Grisham, and Brett Sullivan all landing above average by WRC+. Sullivan is a cheap catcher, the others are mix-and-match pieces from late in the lineup.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Padres bats/stacks in smaller doses, Dustin May, small shares of value Snell
Update Notes: the Dodgers have Taylor in the cleanup role between Smith and Muncy because that’s fun. The lineup runs largely as expected with righty masher Trayce Thompson in the eight spot as an interesting power bat against the left-handed Snell for $2,600/$2,500. Thompson has a 25% barrel rate and 55% hard-hit with four home runs in 54 plate appearances and has a .261 ISO so far this year but is otherwise slashing .152/.278/.413. The Padres lineup is as expected.
Texas Rangers (-103/4.28) @ Los Angeles Angels (-105/4.31)
The Angels will run quality left-handed starter Reid Detmers out against the Rangers tonight, with Texas answering back by starting righty Nathan Eovaldi. Both pitchers land squarely in the mid-range on most slates, Detmers has a 27% strikeout rate over 26 innings and five starts this season while pitching to a 4.39 xFIP and 4.85 ERA. He has allowed a 40.8% hard-hit rate with some power at a 3.48% home run rate on 90 mph of average exit velocity. Eovaldi’s home runs have come at a much lower 0.68% pace on 88.9 mph of average exit velocity with his ability to limit launch angle as the stark difference between the two pitchers. Eovaldi has allowed a 42.2% hard-hit rate but it has been mostly on the ground with a 4.3-degree average launch angle and 2.0% barrel rate compared to Detmers’ seven percent barrel and 17.1-degree average launch angle. More than anything else, keeping the ball down helps pitchers cap the upside of opposing offenses. That said, Eovaldi’s launch angle average was 10.7 degrees last year and 12.8 the season before, he may have found a new skill or this may be happenstance, a start against the homer-happy Angels lineup should be a good barometer. Both pitchers land at playable salaries, but neither projects particularly well in tough matchups, this game can be considered either an all-sides opportunity or potentially a no-sides (which truly means a light touch on all sides still across 150 lineups) option for MLB DFS tonight. Either pitcher could succeed, either lineup could blow up for offense, but the 4.28 and 4.31 implied totals with a basically pick’em line tells the story well in this matchup.
When rostering bats, Rangers hitters with appeal include Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, and Adolis Garcia from the top of the lineup. Thr group has a combined 17 home runs with a well above average mark for run creation and they are not overly expensive with Semien as the only truly pricey bat. Robbie Grossman is a good correlated scoring piece if he is hitting second, Josh Jung is probably the better option with his ability to drive the ball and plate runs if hitters ahead of him get on base. Jung has eight home runs and a .257 ISO with a 131 WRC+ in 122 plate appearances. Jonah Heim is a useable catcher bat on many nights, he has six home runs and is slashing .300/.373/.578 with a .278 ISO and 160 WRC+ over 102 plate appearances this year, and Ezequiel Duran is another name of note late in the lineup. The Rangers will have to find plate appearances for Duran when Corey Seager is back in the lineup, he has slashed .307/.342/.480 with a 129 WRC+ and three home runs while covering the star’s absence. Leody Taveras and Bubba Thompson are not overly interesting late in the lineup. The names are fairly obvious on the Angels’ side of things, even people coming over for the first time from NBA DFS will know the names Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. The superstar duo have 15 home runs combined so far this season and they are both pounding the ball with well above average ISOs of .277 and .230 while creating runs 66% and 40% better than average this year. Joining them in stacks can be leadoff man Zach Neto, a top hitting prospect with a very highly-regarded hit tool who was probably promoted a bit too early out of desperation. Neto has an 85 WRC+ so far in his Major League career, but we can forgive him since he was just drafted last year and spent virtually no time in the minors. Anthony Rendon is creating run 10% better than average and he is not striking out with just an 11.4% rate so far this year, Rendon will continue creating runs regardless of his power output but if he keeps putting bat on ball he will find his home run upside. Hunter Renfroe and Taylor Ward are good right-handed options later in the projected lineup, they are joined by Brandon Drury who is projected to hit seventh but the lineup may shuffle handedness somewhat. The trio has combined for 17 home runs so far this year, they are playable power bats in a mid-ranked stack tonight. Matt Thaiss and Luis Rengifo round out the projected Angels batting order.
Play: either all four sides in moderate doses or not at all (very small doses), any one of these four corners could be relevant tonight but they are all more likely to just be “fine”
Update Notes: The Rangers lineup is mostly as expected with Travis Jankowski in for Thompson in the ninth spot in the lineup. Jankowski can be used as a low-end wraparound play in that role. The Angels gave both Renfroe and Rendon the night off, Ward is hitting cleanup followed by Drury-Jake Lamb–Gio Urshela-Chad Wallach-Rengifo, this is a big downgrade to Angels bats and a potential boost to Eovaldi shares.
Houston Astros (-117/4.43) @ Seattle Mariners (+108/4.16)
A clunker of a pitching matchup has both teams in the late game showing a fair amount of upside given the star power in their lineups. The Vegas run totals are surprisingly low in a game between Marco Gonzales and JP France, who will be making his debut as a 28-year-old non-prospect. This could be a good spot for bats, Gonzales has not been completely awful this year but he has also not been very good and he always allows too much contact. The lefty has a 17.9% strikeout rate with a 4.42 xFIP and 4.74 ERA over five starts and 24.2 innings in 2023. He struck out just 13.2% in 183 innings last year after reaching 18.5% the season before, so the 17.9% is actually an uptick year-over-year, but it is still not a good number. Gonzales has missed barrels this season, he has just a 2.83% home run rate on a 3.8% barrel rate, but he has been lousy at that in the past despite limiting hard hits fairly well, this is another flyball pitcher who makes loud mistakes when he makes them. The Astros are more than capable of capitalizing against the flawed lefty, Houston bats come too cheap and Gonzales is likely not a great option at $7,700/$7,600 on either site. Mauricio Dubon has created runs 10% below average and has not hit any home runs, with just three stolen bases on the board out of the leadoff spot, but he puts the ball in play reliably which should make him effective against this pitcher. Dubon leads off ahead of Alex Bregman who is a great play for cheap power at $4,400/$2,900, the former All-Star has four home runs this year but is slashing just .208/.340/.342 with a .133 ISO, though his run creation mark is just one percent below average despite the struggles. Bregman hit 23 home runs and created runs 36% better than average just last year, it is difficult to believe that he is done and he has a 10.03 in our home run model, putting him over the line tonight. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have loaded left-handed bats that can power the ball with no loss of quality against same-handed pitching, but they tend to go under-owned even against lousy lefties, including Gonzales in the past. The duo is very much in play in this one, hitting on either side of struggling right-handed first baseman Jose Abreu who is slashing .227/.267/.258 with a .031 ISO and 45 WRC+. Abreu has not hit a home run since last August, he costs $3,400/$2,500 and may need a day off or a drop in the lineup to help him get going. Stil, if he hits in his expected spot he adds another probably low-owned option to the great top of this lineup. Jeremy Pena is slashing .236/.287/.433 but he has six home runs and six stolen bases to support the idea of MLB DFS production tonight from the shortstop. Pena costs $4,500/$3,200, he has a 5.4% barrel rate and 31.2% hard-hit so far this year which are both down significantly from last year’s 9.6% and 36.2%, Pena’s overall quality is worth watching as the season goes along, he needs to find his power to retain his relevance positionally. Corey Julks, Jake Meyers, and Martin Maldonado round out the lineup.
The Mariners are facing JP France who looks like a non-entity on the mound. France is debuting tonight and he is not available on FanDuel while he costs $5,200 on DraftKings. The righty has made three starts at AAA this season and he has a 33.8% strikeout rate but a 14.3% walk rate (one prospect review hilariously referred to this as “just 11 walks” while trying to push the pitcher) with a 4.54 xFIP, this looks like a spot where the Mariners will connect early and often. France’s heavy strikeout stuff has been present in past seasons in the minors, but he was not a ranked prospect coming into this season and he would have been on the radar before now if he was going to amount to much more than maybe a bullpen power arm for a team loaded with them. Go-to Mariners include Julio Rodriguez the team’s star who has been stuck at five home runs and six stolen bases for what seems like weeks now. Rodriguez is priced down to $5,700/$3,600, he is a great option with a 13.42 in our home run model tonight, even if he does not hit one over the wall he is a good candidate to get involved for Seattle. Ty France (no relation as far as we can tell) hits second, he had 20 home runs in 613 plate appearances last year with a robust 127 WRC+ but is at just 97 WRC+ with one home run while scuffling to a .237/.331/.339 early start. France is a better hitter than that and he is in a good get-right spot, his ability to put the ball in play regularly should help him against this pitcher as well, France strikes out at just a mid-teens clip over time. Jarred Kelenic has a 10.22 in the home run model, starting a run of four hitters who land above our magic number tonight, France is at 9.62. Kelenic has seven home runs on the season with a .283 ISO and 162 WRC+ but remains cheap at $4,500/$3,400. Eugenio Suarez has not hit for much power this year, he has three homers and a .107 ISO after hitting 31 each of the last two years. Cal Raleigh is at a 10.80 in our home run model, Teoscar Hernandez lands at 11.65, they have a combined 12 on the season with a .227 and .206 ISO respectively, there is a lot of power potential in the Seattle lineup. JP Crawford, Taylor Trammell, and Kolten Wong round out the projected lineup with three productive capable bats at a variety of prices, positions, and productivity. Crawford has a 111 WRC+ over 120 plate appearances with one home run, he hit nine homers in 2021 over 687 plate appearances and six last year in 603 tries, he is a somewhat limited option at the plate. Trammell has made 14 plate appearances this year and has two home runs to show for it. He made 117 plate appearances last year and came away with only four home runs after hitting eight in 178 plate appearances in 2021. The young outfielder profiles as a good hitter, he comes cheap at $2,400/$2,600. Wong hit 15 home runs and stole 17 bases last year, following up a 14/12 performance in 2021, he is cheap at $2,700/$2,300 but has not produced this year with zero home runs or steals and a 49 WRC+ in 87 plate opportunities. The Mariners are a strong late-night hammer option on this slate.
Play: Mariners stacks/bats aggressively, Astros stacks/bats
Update Notes: The Mariners lineup runs as expected until Tommy Murhpy slots in for Trammel in the bottom third. Murphy is a hitter with power who has never fully found it at the MLB level, he hit 11 home runs in 325 plate appearances in 2021 and is a very cheap catcher at $2,200 where the position is needed and $2,000 where it is not.
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