The Saturday Main Slate gets underway at 7:05 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening and includes six games, five of which were on yesterday’s Main Slate. The Yankees vs Orioles game replaces the Athletics and Rays on a Saturday night slate that features very little in the way of premium pitching. There are no overly stable options on the mound tonight, with several flawed veterans and lower-end prospects starting across the league. An evening with starting pitching that peaks with the name Charlie Morton is going to be an offensively situated affair, loading up on bats and not sweating the differences between flawed pitching options seems like the correct angle of attack for Saturday’s MLB DFS slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. With that in mind, most of these games feature recommendations for multiple sides across a full portfolio of lineups.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to any news for changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Breakdown – 4/8/23
New York Yankees (-129/4,55) @ Baltimore Orioles (+119/4.05)
The first game on the slate is also the only one that was not featured in last night’s Main Slate contests, giving this evening a bit of an “oh this again?” feeling for MLB DFS purposes. The Yankees are in Baltimore to face the Orioles and left-handed contact-oriented starter Cole Irvin. The matchup has the Yankees profiling as one of the top overall teams for power and for MLB DFS scoring potential on the slate, Irvin is not what experts refer to as “a good pitcher.” The lefty made 30 starts last season, covering 181 innings for Oakland and pitching to a 4.35 xFIP and a 3.98 ERA. Those average marks for runs are essentially Irvin’s best feature, he posted just a 17.3% strikeout rate and he allowed a 39.5% hard-hit mark and a 9.6% barrel rate, resulting in 3.37% home runs. He was slightly better for preventing power the season before but worse from a run creation perspective, with a 4.82 xFIP and a 4.24 ERA. Irvin induces just a 9.6% swinging-strike rate and had a 25.7% CSW% last year, meaning a team with several patient hitters and several titanic power bats should be able to capitalize on all of the premium contact that the pitcher allows. Irvin checks in as a non-option for $6,600 on DraftKings and $7,500 on FanDuel. The Yankees, meanwhile, should be a popular play but one that seems well worth the investment. The team should have DJ LeMahieu in the leadoff spot followed by Aaron Judge, as usual. LeMahieu’s return to prominence would be the catalyst for all sorts of potentially record scoring in the Bronx with this year’s anticipated uptick in offense. LeMahieu has one of the league’s best pure hit tools when he is going right, but injuries have sapped him of his skillset over the past two seasons. Now healthy, LeMahieu is off to a .292/.370/.583 start while creating runs 64% better than average over his first 27 plate appearances in six games. Judge, of course, needs no introduction, he has an excellent chance of homering on any slate and he leads the Yankees with a 13.04 mark in our home run model. Giancarlo Stanton is the other Yankees bat above the magic number, pulling in a 10.95 home run mark, he should be hitting behind second baseman Gleyber Torres, giving the Yankees one of the league’s best top-fours. Tha group will be joined by a mix of players in the Yankees’ rotating core, potentially including either Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Cabrera, with Cabrera the more likely to start. Isiah Kiner-Falefa may see a Saturday start as well, depending on the whims of manager Aaron Boone. The most playable pieces from later in the lineup, pending the final configuration, are catcher Kyle Higashioka, whose excellent contact profile has been featured in this space already this season on a day that the backstop rewarded us with a home run. Higashioka had a 48.1% hard-hit rate in his 248 plate appearances last season, his 10 home runs were only a disappointment to those expecting 25 after a hot Spring of 2022. Now a bit under the radar, Higashioka has all the tools for a bit of a breakout and he is on the radar for MLB DFS, particularly where catchers are required. Rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe should be bringing up the bottom of the batting order again, the speed burner has the tools to put up a massive fantasy score, but he is still finding his form at this level. The highly regarded Volpe is slashing just .143/.280/.143 over his first seven games and 25 plate appearances. The Yankees have excellent options at the top and through the middle, and Volpe is a strong wraparound play, making this an excellent option for stacking.
When it comes to young unheralded starting pitching, this column is very much “from Missouri,” as in we need the pitcher to show us their ability. In the case of young Yankees right-hander Jhony Brito, we are going to need to see it a few more times before there is any trust gained. The middling righty prospect had a strong first outing last week, pitching five clean innings against the free-swinging Giants while yielding no runs on just two hits and striking out six. The strikeouts were unexpected, as was the general quality of Brito’s game. The starter is not a premium prospect, but the Yankees have a habit of turning scrap into gems when it comes to cheap pitching. Unfortunately for New York, the reverse tends to be true when it comes to pricey arms. All of this is to say that Brito is not yet fully trusted, and we are seeing a reasonable expectation for power in the Baltimore lineup against a limited young pitcher who has two offerings. Brito’s solid but not spectacular fastball was complemented by a plus-looking changeup that dove off the table in his start last week. While that was pitching exactly to the book on him, the Giants were not able to wait out the starter and he benefitted greatly, this Orioles team may not fall into the same trap. Brito is difficult to trust, but he should be in play for at least some tournament shares at just $7,000 on DraftKings and $7,100 on FanDuel. The play is leaning far more toward Orioles bats, however. Baltimore features a strong and growing lineup from top to bottom. Leadoff man Cedric Mullins hit 16 home runs last year and 30 the year before, he adds excellent stolen base potential as well, Mullins swiped 34 bases last year and 30 the season before. Adley Rutschman is rapidly becoming one of the top offensive catchers in baseball, he is off to a .300/.382/.400 start with a home run in his 34 plate appearances. Switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander had 33 home runs last season and is our overall home run pick for the day. First baseman Ryan Mountcastle has been featured regularly in this space, and big things are expected, the slugger is second today behind Santander with a 10.42 mark in our home run model. Rookie Gunnar Henderson is an interesting option as he comes relatively inexpensively and with multi-position eligibility from site to site, though like Volpe he has not shown much yet this season. In a 132 plate appearance cup of coffee in 2022, however, Henderson hit four home runs while slashing .259/.348/.440 and creating runs 25% better than average. Over 27 plate appearances this year, the young infielder has struck out a whopping 44.4% of the time, but he has also walked 22.2% of the time, leading to a 120 WRC+ mark despite his struggles at the dish, the talent is very real here. The bottom of the lineup loses a bit of power upside, but the 7.13 mark carried by Austin Hays is a reasonably good mark for a hitter who had 16 long balls last year and 22 the season before. Hays costs just $3,400 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel, he is an easy click and may hit a spot or two higher depending on the final configuration of the Orioles lineup. Speed demon Jorge Mateo has some unheralded pop in his bat as well, Mateo hit 13 home runs in addition to his 35 stolen bases last season, he is already off and running for MLB DFS scoring this year with five steals and two home runs in his seven games.
Play: Yankees stacks, Orioles stacks, minor shares of Jhony Brito with little to no trust.
Update Notes:
St. Louis Cardinals (-157/5.06) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+144/4.05)
Another excellent division rivalry game kicks off in Milwaukee, with the Cardinals’ excellent lineup facing lefty Eric Lauer. The southpaw had a few moments last season, but there is not much to his overall game. In the end, Lauer made 29 starts and had a 23.8% strikeout rate over 158.2 innings. He pitched to a 4.08 xFIP with a 3.69 ERA, betraying some of his quality issues right away. He induced just a 9.8% swinging-strike rate and had a sub-par 27.4% CSW% for the year while allowing a 4.08% home run rate. Lauer is going to face a long line of right-handed power bats in this start, it could be a problematic day for the flawed southpaw. At $8,100 on DraftKings and $8,600 on FanDuel, it is difficult to trust the pitcher, but he may be worth at least a few SP2 tournament shares on the two-pitcher site. The Cardinals bats, on the other hand, look like a strong play on this slate. St. Louis has a lineup that has some of the best right-handed pop in the league, they are a danger to any lefty starter, particularly one with a bit of a home run hiccup. This should be a Tommy Edman leadoff game with a lefty on the mound, the switch-hitter is a strong source of speed and mid-range pop, he swiped 32 bases last year and 30 the season before, hitting a combined 24 home runs across the two years. Edman will likely be followed by switch-hitting Dylan Carlson who brings a bit of his own power to the equation. The outfielder created runs at exactly league average while hitting eight home runs in 488 tries last year, but he was better with 18 homers and a 113 WRC+ in 619 opportunities in 2021. The pair hits in front of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who is priced at $5,600/$4,000 and $5,000/$3,700 from DraftKings to FanDuel this evening. Both corner infielders are always in play as individuals, as part of a Cardinals stack, against righties, and against lefties, but against a middling left-handed starter like this, the two right-handed stars could absolutely feast tonight, they are the engine that drives most Cardinals stacks. Catcher Willson Contreras is a great option where backstops are required and he is very playable where they are not. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill was today’s home run pick from the Cardinals, the slugger has outrageous upside for home runs in his bat. O’Neill should be hitting in front of Jordan Walker and the sneaky power bat from last year Juan Yepez in some order. Yepez hit 12 home runs in 274 plate appearances last year, he is just $2,600 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel and he plays both first base and outfield on both sites, this is a quality MLB DFS tournament option from late in the lineup who may go overlooked.
Cardinals lefty Jordan Montgomery projects for what would normally be a mid-range fantasy score in the high-20s (FanDuel scoring) in our pitching model. On today’s slate, the light projection ranks the starter second overall. Montgomery is facing a stiff matchup taking on the Brewers, but he is a quality veteran starter who saw a nice spike in his strikeout numbers after arriving in St. Louis last season. The lefty posted a 21.8% rate over 178.1 innings overall, walking just 5.0% and pitching to a strong 3.43 xFIP and a 3.48 ERA. Montgomery struck out just three over five innings in his first start, getting charged for three earned runs on six hits in the process, but he remains one of the better options on this slate, particularly at just $8,300 on DraftKings. For $9,200 on FanDuel, he is still one of the best of a very limited pool of options. Taking out hedge stacks of Brewers bats if investing in Montgomery is probably also wise. The team has a litany of right-handed bats that it can throw at the starter, including projected leadoff man Mike Brosseau, a platoon specialist. Brosseau hit six home runs in 160 plate appearances last year and five in 169 the year before, with seven of the 11 coming off of lefties. He is followed by typical starters Willy Adames and Christian Yelich, as well as catcher William Contreras. Both of the Contreras brothers have good bats behind the plate. William hit 20 home runs in just 376 plate appearances last season, and he checks in at just $4,000 on DraftKings. Righty Luke Voit has always been overrated, but his premium contact profile should not be entirely ignored. Voit’s major issue is that someone who barrels the ball with as much consistency should be hitting more home runs than he does. He totaled 22 in his 568 plate appearances last year, the same amount that he reached in half as many tries in the short 2020 COVID season that made him a famously overrated slugger. Voit is fine for MLB DFS purposes, he is arguably cheap at $2,900 on DraftKings, and he is definitely inexpensive at $2,200 on the blue site. Rowdy Tellez and Brian Anderson bring veteran quality to the late lineup, Anderson had a big two-home run game this week and he drives the ball with consistency.
Play: Cardinals stacks, some Brewers stacks, Jordan Montgomery, minor shares of Eric Lauer
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (+135/4.12) @ Atlanta Braves (-147/4.98)
The matchup between two of the National League’s elite squads also features the top projected pitcher in our model today, with Charlie Morton taking the hill for the home team. The Braves veteran allowed three runs over 5.1 innings in his first start of the season, concerningly striking out just one hitter. While that was likely just an aberration, Morton is pitching in his age-39 season so the edge of the shelf is approaching, MLB DFS gamers will need to see if the year’s first start was a blip or a harbinger. Meanwhile, we simply will have to rely on history and projection which tell us that the righty should have a reasonably good outing against a very strong Padres team. Morton was one of only a handful of pitchers to strike out 200 hitters last year, he did so by posting a 28.2% strikeout rate with a sharp 12.2% swinging-strike rate over his 172 innings in 31 starts. The righty yielded a bit too much premium contact, he allowed a 9.5% barrel rate and a 3.85% home run rate with a 42.1% hard-hit mark. The contact typically will result in runs scored, Morton had a good-not-great 3.61 xFIP and a 4.34 ERA last season. The righty should be a mid-range play when it comes to popularity, he is in a tough spot against a good lineup that people like to roster and he costs $9,000 on DraftKings. At $8,800 on FanDuel, the righty should be a frequently rostered play, quality of opponent be damned. Of course, when taking out those shares across a full portfolio of lineups, it pays to grab some of San Diego’s excellent bats in other lineups. The Padres bring quality at the top of the lineup with the trio of Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts, three All-Stars who are very easy to recommend in any matchup. The trio combined for 74 home runs and an average WRC+ of 144 last season, they are among the very best in the game. Naturally, that makes them quite expensive, stacking all three Padres will cost $17,100 in salary on DraftKings, but just $10,900 on the FanDuel slate. The Padres offer a few quality bats to help offset cost and potential popularity. Options include projected leadoff man Trent Grisham, as well as Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim from later in the batting order. If Matt Carpenter and Rougned Odor play the lefties are of minor interest. Both have power but both have been regarded as washed up for quite some time – yes in spite of Carpenter’s ridiculous unexpected 15 home runs in 154 plate appearances last season. The bottom of the Padres lineup gets a bit rough, stacking from 1-5 is the focus.
When seeking options for offensive outbursts, the Braves are something like tuning in for a set from a highly political comedian who is a member of the opposite party from yours (see how diplomatically we played that analogy?). In a matchup against Michael Wacha, the absolutely loaded Atlanta lineup is profiling for an excellent night. The team has been popular on virtually every slate on which they have played this season, that is unlikely to change. Wacha struck out just 20.2% of hitters and allowed a 3.50% home run rate on a 9.6% barrel rate last year. The Braves need very little help from starters to find their power and run-creation ability, but Wacha is a great target who gave up a 4.36% home run rate in 2021 while allowing a 42.7% hard-hit percentage and a 10.5% barrel rate. Wacha is only of interest to the bold as a pitching play, he costs $7,900 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel, and it is baseball after all, but he is an unlikely path to success. The Braves bats begin with Ronald Acuna Jr. who costs $6,300 on DraftKings and $4,400 on FanDuel, making him one of the day’s most precious commodities from a price perspective. Acuna is a superstar of the first order, he has legitimate potential for a 40/40 season or beyond. The star should be rostered frequently, as should first baseman Matt Olson and third baseman Austin Riley, who hit a combined 72 home runs last season. The corner infield duo is a spectacular pairing for power from opposite sides of the plate, they are correctly very expensive on this slate as well. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud and second base star Ozzie Albies should be included in the middle. Albies made just 269 plate appearances last year, battling injuries, he slashed .247/.294/.409 with just eight home runs and three stolen bases, but the reality is much more the player who hit 30 home runs and stole 20 bases in 2021. Albies is an underpriced star at just $3,100 on FanDuel, he costs $4,800 on DraftKings, which is about right. Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna are roller coaster veteran bats in the outfield, they are low-ownership low-cost stacking options for low-expectation power. Orlando Arcia can be included in minor shares of stacks, but the interesting name at the bottom of the lineup is lefty Samuel Hilliard, who is replacing injured Michael Harris II in the lineup. Hilliard hit just two home runs while slashing .184/.280/.264 in 200 plate appearances for the Rockies last season, but he hit 14 home runs in 238 tries the year before and has been regarded as a quality power prospect since hitting 35 home runs in AAA in 2019. Hilliard is now 29 years old, no one is expecting a turnaround for his career, but there is MLB DFS scoring potential at a cheap price on a name that very few should be paying attention to, making him a dynamite option in tournaments.
Play: Charlie Morton, Braves stacks, Padres 1-5
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+124/5.17) @ Colorado Rockies (-134/5.94)
Another somewhat weak pitching matchup at Coors Field has the game between the Nationals and the Rockies once again profiling well for offense, which comes as no surprise. The teams should both be typically popular, with Austin Gomber taking the mound for Colorado. Gomber is a contact-oriented lefty who had an 18% strikeout rate over 124.2 innings in 17 starts last year. He was better the season before with a 23.2% mark in his 115.1 innings, but he yielded a 4.17 xFIP that season and a 4.19 mark last year. While those numbers are better than the 4.53 ERA from 2021 and the unsightly 5.56 he posted last year, Gomber is no one’s idea of an apex starter. The Nationals, of course, are no one’s idea of a good lineup, so this is another spot where “soft squishy thing meets accommodating place.” The Nationals to target include last night’s star Alex Call, who should be cheap near the top of the batting order once again. Call homered yesterday and had five home runs in 131 opportunities last year, he is fine. Lane Thomas is a more proven commodity, but he is also not exactly a good hitter. Thomas hit 17 home runs while creating runs four percent worse than average last season. Jeimer Candelario also posted a big score in a Coors game yesterday and could certainly do the same tonight, but he is not overly appealing even at $3,400 and $3,100 from site to site, particularly with a lot of ownership weight anticipated. Joey Meneses has power potential to spare but he is pricey for the lineup around him. Lurking toward the bottom of the projected lineup is interesting and inexpensive Michael Chavis, who hit 14 home runs in 426 plate appearances last year, and Stone Garrett who had a 9.4% barrel rate and a 49.1% hard-hit percentage in his 84 plate appearances, hitting four home runs, in 2022. The Nationals are flawed, but Coors Field and a good matchup should bolster their chances yet again.
The Rockies are potentially in a slightly tougher spot, facing right-hander Trevor Williams, but they should be fine for stacking as well. Over nine starts and 89.2 innings last year, Williams had a 22.6% strikeout rate with a 3.21 ERA that was betrayed by his 3.93 xFIP. Williams allowed a 3.23% home run rate with 36.8% hard hits and a fairly good 7.7% barrel rate allowed. The year before, Williams made 15 starts and pitched to a 3.96 xFIP with similar marks across the board. At $5,700 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel, while it is difficult to trust at all, there is arguably a touch of potential in playing Williams on a somewhat short slate. With a dearth of pitching options as a starting point, even if Williams goes completely bust at that price as an SP2 on DraftKings, the difference in bats that can be afforded may be enough to overcome the gap between a zero and a mediocre starting pitching score. There was already a slate this season that could have been won on DraftKings with two negative pitching scores, it is not the craziest thing in the world to roster minor shares of Williams at what should be no public popularity as a large field tournament play, it does not need to work out very often to profit and he does not even need to be very good on a slate like this one. If that is the chosen approach, one might do well to grab two shares of Rockies bats for every share of Williams on the mound, the play is that thin. Colorado features Jurickson Profar at the top of the projected lineup. The well-post-hype player had a reasonable 2022, hitting 15 home runs and stealing five bases for San Diego, but then struggled to find a Major League job until injuries opened things for the Rockies to sign him off of a good WBC performance. Profar hits in front of desirable Rockies bats including Kris Bryant, Charlie Blackmon, and C.J. Cron, who has power for days. Cron is today’s Colorado home run pick, he is pulling in a 9.93 to lead the team in our home run model. The righty slugger hit 29 home runs last year and 28 the year before, he is a reliable bat with plenty of pop. Ryan McMahon, Elehuris Montero, and Yonathan Daza should make up the next trio of hitters, in some order. All three are playable, with the lefty power bat wielded by McMahon as the most likely piece. McMahon hit 20 home runs last year and 23 the year before, but he was five percent below the league average for run creation in both seasons. Rookie Ezequiel Tovar is another young player out to a slow start. Tovar is slashing just .200/.200/.280 with no stolen bases over his first 25 plate appearances in seven games. Bigger things are expected from the speedy infielder, he is an interesting wraparound option.
Play: Nationals bats, Rockies stacks, extremely limited pitching shares for large field tournaments as described
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-148/5.26) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+137/4.33)
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks’ duel in the desert continues on Saturday night with a matchup between two right-handed starters who allow plenty of contact to opposing hitters, there could be a bonanza of runs scored in the matchup between Noah Syndergaard and Zach Davies. With Davies taking the mound for the hometown Diamondbacks, the Dodgers are looking like a prime stack in our Power Index and in MLB DFS scoring projections. The team is loaded with star quality from top to bottom, and they will be facing a pitcher who has had a strikeout rate between 17 and 18% each of the last two seasons. Davies posted a 4.58 xFIP and a 4.09 ERA over his 134.1 innings last year. He was worse with a 5.78 ERA and a 5.03 xFIP in 2021. This is a targetable pitcher who does not have much upside for run prevention, despite a good 34.3% hard-hit rate allowed, Davies yielded a 3.68% home run rate in 2022, he had a 3.74% mark on a 43.8% hard-hit rate the year before. Stacking the Dodgers against this pitcher is a quality play tonight. Mookie Betts sports a 10.70 mark in our home run model, putting him over the “magic number” and in a great position for a long ball. Betts leads off for the Dodgers at $6,000 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel, putting him at a minor discount to other stars like Ronald Acuna Jr. The outfielder has every bit the potential, and he hits at the top of an equally good lineup as Acuna’s, with former Braves star Freddie Freeman at first base and second in the projected batting order. Freeman is one of baseball’s best overall hitters, he slashed .325/.407/.511 with 21 home runs and a 157 WRC+ last year. Freeman is pricey, as is projected three-hitter Will Smith. The catcher costs $5,800 on DraftKings, making him a big positional spend-up, and he is the most expensive Dodgers bat at $4,100 on FanDuel, which is honestly a bit silly given the two names above him in the batting order. Smith is undeniably good, he hit 24 home runs in 578 plate appearances with a 10.3% barrel rate and a 43% hard-hit percentage last year, but he is not Mookie Betts, and he is not Freddie Freeman. With lefty Max Muncy and right-handed J.D. Martinez occupying the middle of the lineup, the Dodgers have power and run-creation potential on both sides of the plate, both are options in a soft matchup here, they can be mixed and matched for ownership, cost, and positioning across numerous Dodgers stacks. Veteran bats David Peralta and Chris Taylor could provide reasonably cheap quality from late in the lineup, and young outfielder James Outman could provide power at the bottom of the bating order. Outman has hit two home runs and is slashing .350/.519/.850 in his first 27 plate appearances.
Noah Syndergaard was never the pitcher that he had a reputation for being, even when he was on the Mets. The right-hander is somewhat widely regarded as a diminished ace who had immense stuff, but Syndergaard never cracked the 30% strikeout rate mark in his career, peaking with a 29.3% mark all the way back in 2016. “Thor” earned his nickname more through being a lookalike than through sheer power, he was more of an effective pitcher than a dominant one. Syndergaard has just a 24.8% strikeout rate for his career but also a 5.6% walk rate and an excellent 3.06 xFIP. Coming back from injury last season, Syndergaard fell to just a 16.8% strikeout rate and a 4.29 xFIP but he was still reasonably good for limiting walks and power, and he is not easy to score against. The righty may not chalk up a huge strikeout total, but he has a moderate chance to pitch for quality tonight. At $7,600 on DraftKings, Syndergaard is easily in the conversation at pitcher, he is a more difficult ask for $9,000 on FanDuel, but there are so few options that he could succeed even at that price. Both sides of this equation are in play, Syndergaard can be rostered, but the Arizona lineup is also playable. The Snakes have a quality team this year, the lineup includes second baseman Ketel Marte, who costs just $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel, he has power and speed potential, as do Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy, young outfielders who come at inexpensive price tags and may not be popular enough on this slate. Putting that trio together with the power offered by first base masher Christian Walker is a good setup for MLB DFS scoring potential. Walker hit 36 home runs and had an excellent contact profile with an 11.5% barrel rate and a 44% hard-hit mark last year. The late portion of the lineup struggles for equal quality, but there are playable parts in Josh Rojas and Alek Thomas. Outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is easily the best option of the bunch in the second half. Gurriel slashed .291/.343/.400 last season but the power was out with just five home runs in his 493 plate appearances.
Play: Dodgers stacks, Diamondbacks stacks, a few Syndergaard shares in tournaments if so inclined
Update Notes:
Toronto Blue Jays (+110/4.63) @ Los Angeles Angels (-119/4.98)
The final game of the night is a star-studded contest between the Blue Jays and Angels in Los Angeles. This game is also somewhat light on starting pitching, though there is at least veteran quality, if not upside, available in Tyler Anderson and Jose Berrios. Of the two, Berrios projects slightly better in our pitching model, mostly on the back of better strikeout upside in his matchup, but it is very close and neither starter would have appeal on a better slate. With tonight’s options, both are in play but both should also be stacked against. Anderson is starting for the Angels, he posted a 19.5% strikeout rate in his 28 starts last year and a 19.1% mark over 31 outings the year before. The starter allows plenty of fly balls, which this Blue Jays lineup should be able to exploit, but he is a soft-contact specialist who induced a phenomenally low 28.5% hard-hit rate and just 85 mph of average exit velocity last year and a 33% hard-hit rate with an 87 mph exit velocity the year before. Anderson limited home runs to just 1.98% last year, though a few more came in 2021 via happenstance. Overall, this is not a good starter, but it is one who could pitch deep into the game and only yield a handful of runs while limiting power. Anderson will be facing a stout Toronto lineup that features major star power up top. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has created runs 32% and 66% better than average the past two seasons, he hits third behind equally excellent George Springer and Bo Bichette. Lefty home run bat Daulton Varsho should be in the lineup after a night off last night, he is a quality power option who had a 10.2% barrel rate but a weak 35.3% hard-hit rate on his way to 27 home runs last year. From the right side of the plate, third baseman Matt Chapman exceeded Varsho’s contact numbers with his 12.9% barrel rate and 50.7% hard-hit marks from last year, and he matched the lefty’s total with 27 home runs of his own. Alejandro Kirk slashed .285/.372/.415 and created runs 29% better than average as a solid backstop last year, he is a great option for MLB DFS catcher scoring. Kirk hits ahead of Whit Merrifield and the bottom of the batting order, which diminishes in quality but has playable options who will help offset cost and popularity in Toronto stacks.
The Angels were the other featured team in today’s Power Index column. Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios managed just a 19.8% strikeout rate last season while yielding a 3.85% home run rate on a 43.4% hard-hit percentage. Berrios was far better in 2021, striking out 26.1% and pitching to a 3.59 xFIP with far less power, but something has changed for the veteran right-hander. In his first start in 2023, Berrios covered 5.2 innings and was charged with eight earned runs on nine hits. He did strike out seven and walk two while allowing no home runs, but the expectation between offense and home run upside cannot be ignored until Berrios demonstrates an ability to get past whatever ails him. The Angels’ offense packs a wallop, in addition to the obvious star power provided at the top by Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, two expensive superstars who need no recommendation here to be played widely, the team also features solid veteran bats throughout. Taylor Ward leads off in the projected lineup, Ward hit 23 home runs in a breakout in 2022, slashing .281/.360/.473 along the way. Hitting in front of the two stars makes Ward both a strong individual play and an excellent correlation option for MLB DFS scoring. Veteran Anthony Rendon returns to the lineup after serving his suspension, Rendon has struggled with injury the past two seasons, but he can still drive the ball when given the opportunity. Hunter Renfroe has the third-highest home run mark in our model today, sitting at 12.69. The outfielder costs just $4,800 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel, he is a strong play for power on this slate. Lefty Jake Lamb should see another start and yet another 2022 breakout hitter is at the bottom of the projected lineup in the form of infielder Brandon Drury. Drury was mentioned recently in this space for the 28 home runs he hit last season after specifically redesigning his swing to approach a more home-run-oriented plane. Drury succeeded tremendously, though he was in part aided by the band-box in Cincinnati. Still, there is plenty of upside for a player who is likely to be under-owned late in the lineup in a late game.
Play: Blue Jays stacks, Angels stacks, light pitching shares.
Update Notes:
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