Happy Patriot’s Day, Boston reader. The Massachusets holiday is always an enjoyable sign of Spring and the coming Summer as most of the town takes off from work and the end of their college semester to party in and around Fenway Park and the Boston Marathon. For the rest of the world, Patriot’s Day is a fantasy baseball pain in the ass, with an 11:10 am lock time for season-long weekly lineups that is always annoying to remember. Fortunately, the main slate of MLB DFS action doesn’t get started for another eight hours or so, starting at 7:10 ET with nine games (note: this is now an eight-game slate with the postponement of the night’s first game between the Phillies and White Sox, lock time may be pushed back to 7:40 ET with the next games) landing on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The robust slate features a long list of quality pitching options, from the very best to do it over the last decade to a few names that the public might let slip past in interesting situations. Getting to some of the unheralded options on the slate at cheaper prices and low ownership is always a good option, cheaper pitching with upside allows for unique combinations of hitters within team stacks that are otherwise unavailable to the slate. With a Coors game and a few interesting spots for power on deck, there is a range of viable approaches to lineup construction this evening.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 4/17/23
Philadelphia Phillies (-114/4.14) @ Chicago White Sox (+106/3.94)
This game has been postponed.
Texas Rangers (-198/4.45) @ Kansas City Royals (+180/3.15)
The Rangers and Royals will get the slate started in what looks like a contest that strongly favors the visiting Rangers both on the board in Vegas and for MLB DFS purposes. The Rangers were a featured team in the Power Index today, they rank third overall for home run potential and should have a good chance for sequencing and run creation in a matchup against average-at-best veteran Jordan Lyles, this space will expand on that opportunity. The Rangers projected lineup also comes up cheap across the industry, helping their case as a premium stacking option. Lyles had an 18.6% strikeout rate in 179 innings over 32 starts last year and a 19% rate over 180 innings in 30 starts the year before, he is the picture of consistency over quality. Lyles had a 4.40 xFIP with a 4.42 ERA and a 3.36% home run rate last year, allowing a significant 10.4% barrel rate. He was better for barrels allowed with just a 9.1% rate in 2021, but worse overall for power allowing a 41.6% hard-hit rate and a 4.94% home run rate while pitching to a 4.73 xFIP and a 5.15 ERA. Lyles is a targetable pitcher and the top of the Texas lineup profiles well for home run upside. Marcus Semien has two home runs on the season and is slashing .250/.279/.406 with a .156 ISO. With apologies to column favorite Brandon Lowe, Semien has been baseball’s best power-hitting second baseman for the past few seasons, with 27 home runs last year and 48 the year before. After a slow start, Semien is sitting at just an 85 WRC+ for this season over his 68 opportunities, but there is massive potential in his bat on any given slate and his run-creation mark will soar above the league average soon enough. Last season, Semien was seven percent above average, the year before he sat 31% better than league average for run creation, he is well worth the $5,400 on DraftKings and he is mispriced at $3,200 on FanDuel. Josh Smith has not hit for much power in the Show to this point, he has no home runs and a .000 ISO over 37 plate appearances so far this season and he hit two home runs and had a .052 ISO in 253 plate appearances in 2021, but Smith did come into the league with a well-regarded hit tool if nothing else. The high .290-.300 batting averages that Smith posted at every stop in the minors have yet to translate in the Show, he is mired at just a .192/.314/.238 triple-slash over 290 plate appearances for his career. There might be a fan attending this game who would be better suited to hitting second tonight. Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia are prime targets for stacking or one-off shares, they have excellent skillsets for creating MLB DFS scoring. So far this season, Lowe has hit two home runs with a .206 ISO and he has created runs 16% better than average. Garcia is sitting 36% below league average for run creation after a slow start, but he has hit three home runs and stolen a base in his 65 opportunities. Over 657 plate appearances last season, Garcia had a 112 WRC+ and a .207 ISO, he will come around to above-average run creation before long. For now, the pair of bats in the heart of the order is too cheap at $4,400/$3.300 for Lowe and $4,900/$3,400 for Garcia, they can be easily stacked with one another and combined with a premium secondary team stack. The lineup continues with Josh Jung hitting fifth and pulling in an 8.71 in our home run model. Jung is off to a strong start, slashing .291/.339/.455 with two home runs and a 121 WRC+, he is a highly thought of prospect who struggled with a massive strikeout rate over 102 plate appearances last year. Jung managed to hit five home runs and steal two bases in that sample, with a sturdy 10.2% barrel rate but a disappointing 30.5% hard-hit mark. So far this season the contact profile is just average, with a 7.7% barrel rate and a 35.9% hard-hit mark, but Jung is showing signs of progress in his triple-slash and in reducing his strikeout rate to a still-high 27.1% in his first 59 plate appearances. That number is worse than average by a lot, but Jung was at an unsustainable 38.2% last year, so it is a marked improvement in the tiny sample. Switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim has a 10.7% barrel rate and a 42.9% hard-hit rate over his first 43 plate appearances, hitting two home runs so far. Last season, Heim had 16 home runs in 450 opportunities, he is a sneaky catcher for $3,200/$3,000 if he is in the lineup. Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski, and Leody Taveras bring up the end of the projected lineup. Grossman costs $2,700 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he is off to a slow start after a down season in 2022. Grossman has one home run while slashing .150/.239/.250 in his first 46 plate appearances this year, and he was at just .209/.310/.311 with seven home runs over 477 opportunities last season. In 2021, the veteran outfielder made a full 671 plate appearances and had a nice year at the plate, hitting 23 home runs, stealing 20 bases, and creating runs 14% better than average, but that guy may be gone for good. Jankowski lands in a similar bucket, but he is off to a quality start to this season over just 23 plate appearances. Taveras isn’t off the board when considering the addition of his speed and moderate power potential at a $2,200/$2,500 cost to wrap around to a stack at the top of the batting order that skips Smith for lack of Seager. A Taveras-Semien-Lowe-Garcia(-Jung/Heim on DraftKings) stack is a viable approach to differentiating Rangers bats while maintaining quality and correlation, and the cost is low with Taveras helping to average down the cost of his teammates.
The Royals lineup has been frisky for MLB DFS purposes this season. They have plenty of power with a good blend of lefty-righty combinations and a few interesting hitters, but the team will be facing Jacob deGrom in this matchup, deadening their appeal. To their credit, Bobby Witt Jr,, MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Sal Perez all come up a bit higher than expected in our home run model. Each of the sluggers is between a 6.02 and a 6.31 in our power index, but it is unlikely that Kansas City is able to string together sequencing and create a large number of runs against deGrom. The ace of aces may be slightly disrespected by MLB DFS gamers who look only at surface numbers and hear whispers of rumors of narratives of deGrom not being deGrom any longer. That is all nonsense. The righty had a bad first outing to the season, no doubt about it, pitching just 3.2 innings and yielding six hits with a home run and five earned runs charged against the excellent Phillies lineup. deGrom struck out seven in the short outing. In his second start, the superstar starter threw six innings of two-hit two-walk baseball, getting charged with a lone earned run and striking out 11. In his third outing, deGrom allowed seven hits and was charged with two earned runs over seven innings in which he struck out nine of these same Royals. While all of that adds up to a 4.32 ERA in 16.2 innings over three starts, deGrom’s true quality is on display in his 1.87 xFIP over the same period. There is too much in ERA that is entirely out of the pitcher’s control to value the 4.32 number, and deGrom is otherwise exactly on-form. The righty has a massive 40.9% strikeout rate and has walked just three percent of opposing hitters while inducing a 19.4% swinging-strike rate. deGrom is discounted at $10,100 on DraftKings and $10,600 on FanDuel; he should be more expensive. The Royals are playable in a contrarian sense, but it is thin and only for those who embrace risk as a strategy. In addition to the top hitters mentioned above, Edward Olivares and Michael Massey are inexpensive playable bats from later in the lineup, while Franmil Reyes has home run upside from the bottom of the projected batting order. Reyes sits at a 5.60 in our home run model, he has two long balls on the season and is easily a better candidate to strike out three times against deGrom than to hit a homer off of him.
Play: Jacob deGrom enthusiastically, Rangers stacks, contrarian Royals are fine in small doses but buyer beware
Update Notes: Texas put a spin on their lineup with Jankowski hitting second and with no Adolis Garcia. Jankowski is not a power upgrade but he has been a more productive bat than Smith to this point in the season, but taking Garcia out of the lineup is a big downgrade to the Rangers stack overall. The rest of the lineup is as expected, with quality veteran Brad Miller crashing the party at the bottom of the lineup. Franmil Reyes is not in the lineup for the Royals, nor is Olivares, with Hunter Dozier and Matt Duffy stepping in. The top four bats are all in place as expected.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+143/3.83) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-155/4.76)
Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty is a greatly diminished pitcher after multiple shoulder injuries and extended absences from the game. Flaherty has made three starts this season, pitching 15.1 innings and striking out 20% of hitters while walking 21.5% and pitching to a 5.91 xFIP and 1.50 WHIP. That ugly start to the season is completely hidden at the surface level by a sparkling 1.76 ERA. Flaherty has been very lucky to not allow more earned runs for the season, he walked seven hitters and struck out four over five innings in his first start, walked six and struck out three in his second outing, and then was decent in striking out six with just one walk while allowing a lone earned run on five hits in Coors Field of all places. Over his 36 innings in eight starts last season, Flaherty had a 19.8% strikeout rate and a 13.2% walk rate with a 4.93 xFIP, so it seems like the Coors start was more likely a blip of unexpected quality in the weirdest possible spot than it was the beginning of a turnaround. Flaherty has the talent to make him worth keeping an eye on and jumping on early, but he needs to show more on the mound first, he is a difficult ask even at $7,800/$8,300, but a few shares are not entirely out of the question. The righty is facing a Diamondbacks projected lineup that is struggling for run creation but one that includes a number of interesting young hitters. Leadoff man Josh Rojas created runs eight percent better than average over 510 plate appearances as a good correlated scoring option last year, he costs just $4,600/$3,200 atop the lineup and is worth a spot when stacking Diamondbacks hitters. Rojas is off to a great start this year, over 51 plate appearances he is slashing .356/.400/.467 with a 132 WRC+ and two stolen bases. Switch-hitting second baseman Ketel Marte has not had a great start to his year, he has a lone home run and one stolen base and has created runs 28% worse than average over 59 opportunities, but he is a more talented player than that. Marte had a 102 WRC+ in 558 plate appearances last year and a 139 mark in 374 the season before, he has a bit of mid-range power which probably makes him too cheap at $4,200/$2,500, the FanDuel price is definitely low and puts Marte in the value one-off conversation at his position. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has also gotten out of the gate slow, he has a 75 WRC+ which only looks good sitting above the ugly 45 currently held by cleanup hitter Christian Walker. Gurriel has been the better of the two mid-lineup bats so far, he is slashing .250/.273/.404 with one home run, and Walker is at just .196/.230/.339 with two home runs and a disappointing .143 ISO. Gurriel is a better overall hitter and a quality run creator than he has been to this point in 2023, he is discounted to just $3,700/$2,700 while Walker checks in at just $3,600/$2,800. The slugging first baseman hit 36 home runs in 667 plate appearances, posting a .235 ISO and a 122 WRC+ over a breakout campaign, but his contact profile has been ugly to start the year with just a 4.2% barrel rate and a 27.1% hard-hit mark. Corbin Carroll has been as-advertised over 60 plate appearances this year. The rookie standout has four home runs and six stolen bases with an excellent 119 WRC+ and he is slashing .288/.300/.542 with a .254 ISO. Carroll remains cheap at just $3,100 on both sites, the DraftKings mark is particularly low and MLB DFS gamers can capitalize on that site, but Carroll should absolutely not be skipped in Diamondbacks stacks. Jake McCarthy has blazing speed but he has gotten on base at just a .264 clip so far this year, limiting him to just two stolen bases. McCarthy needs to hit or draw walks to have value, he is sitting at just a .170/.264/.234 triple-slash with a 39 WRC+ this year, but he stole 23 bases while getting on at a .342 clip over 354 plate appearances last year, so there is the hope of value at his low cost. Catcher Gabriel Moreno is not much of an option behind the plate, but if Alex Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo are in the lineup as projected, they could make for interesting inexpensive plays from the bottom of the lineup. Perdomo was a well-thought-of infield prospect on his way up but did not show anything across 500 plate appearances last season, slashing a mere .195/.285/.262. The post-hype player is at a .400/.516/.640 triple-slash with a home run and a stolen base over his 33 plate appearances so far this year, he may have simply needed another year.
The Cardinals’ lineup is basically always in play. If this column comes up blank one day, expect that you can probably safely play any combination of St. Louis hitters in a stack without making a clear mistake in MLB DFS contests. In tonight’s matchup against Merrill Kelly, St. Louis is not flashing gigantic power numbers in our home run model, but they project well for MLB DFS points via sequencing and run creation, and their best bats have above-average home run upside. Kelly is not a bad pitcher by any means, he had a quality 3.85 xFIP with a better-looking 3.37 ERA over 200.1 innings in 33 starts last year, pitching to an average 22% strikeout rate but limiting hitters to a 2.61% home run rate. Kelly was roughly the same pitcher in 2021 in many ways, but he gave up a bit more power, a few more runs, and struck out fewer hitters at just a 19.5% strikeout rate over 158 innings. The righty could fairly be called a league-average pitcher. So far in 2023, Kelly has made three starts, pitching 15.1 innings and posting a 23.4% strikeout rate but also an 18.8% walk rate with a 5.05 xFIP and a 1.43 WHIP. Like his opponent, Kelly has gotten lucky on the surface, his ERA is more than two full runs lower at 2.93 and he has yielded just a 1.56% home run rate. The limited power comes in spite of a 44.4% hard-hit rate with a 91.8 mph average launch angle and an 8.3% barrel rate allowed, he has just managed to induce more ground balls than usual with a 3.8-degree average launch angle to this point in the young season. Last year, Kelly had a 14-degree average launch angle allowed, and the season before he was at a 12.9, so home runs should be coming if he continues to give up this much contact. The excellent Cardinals lineup opens with lefty Brendan Donovan, who has two home runs and two stolen bases while creating runs exactly at league average to this point. Donovan slashed .281/.394/.379 with a 129 WRC+ last season, he is a strong correlation piece who can create fantasy points on his own from time to time. Lefty slugger Lars Nootbaar is pulling in a quality grade in our home run model, he rivals the stars who hit just behind him for power in this spot. Nootbaar has made just 15 plate appearances after suffering an injury, but he has a home run and a .429 ISO, adding a stolen base in the tiny sample. The darling of preseason fantasy sleeper columns for redraft leagues, Nootbaar is sitting at a 25% barrel rate and a 50% hard-hit mark in the 15 opportunities, he drew attention initially for the solid 12.1% barrel rate and 46% hard-hit mark he posted over a much more realistic 347 plate appearances last year, hitting 14 home runs with a .221 ISO and 125 WRC+ along the way. At $3,700/$3,000, Nootbaar is a bargain. The stars in the middle, if you weren’t familiar, are Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, two surefire future Hall of Famers, who have done nothing but hit so far this season, and basically every other season of their careers. Goldschmidt is slashing .322/.452/.458 with a 157 WRC+, and Arenado is at .333/.384/.470 with a 131 mark for run creation, just play them. Willson Contreras is slashing just .200/.286/.240 with a 52 WRC+, but he was 32% better than average for run creation last year and he is always one of the better bats at the catcher position. Contreras is arguably cheap at $4,500 on DraftKings, he is playable like a regular hitter for just $2,400 in the heart of this lineup on the blue site. Nolan Gorman has four home runs and a .333 ISO with a 184 WRC+ this season. The power-hitting young infielder remains inexpensive on both sites despite those marks and a fantastic 17.1% barrel rate with a 54.3% hard-hit rate. Those numbers are rivaled by right-handed outfielder Tyler O’Neill, who has a 16.7% barrel rate and a 56.7% hard-hit mark but just two home runs so far this year. O’Neill has made 49 plate appearances, he has a stolen base and he is slashing .255/.286/.404 but his .149 ISO is not representative of his true power. Jordan Walker and Tommy Edman make for strong wraparound plays from later in the lineup, though they are both currently below average for run creation. Walker has a 92 WRC+ and Edman is at 88, but both players keep the ball in play with a mix of power and speed, and both can provide correlated scoring with the top or the middle of the batting order.
Play: Cardinals stacks, some Diamondbacks bats
Update Notes: Left-handed Pavin Smith is hitting sixth for Arizona, he costs $2,800 on DraftKings but just $2,000 on the FanDuel slate, he is moderately interesting when playing Diamondbacks and could be a min-price one-off on the blue site, Jake McCarthy is not in the confirmed lineup. The Cardinals lineup has Alec Burelson returning to the second spot behind Donovan, with Nootbaar dropping to the seventh spot in the batting order and Jordan Walker getting the night off correction: Walker is in fact hitting eighth, it is Paul Goldschmidt getting a night off, which slots Contreras into the third spot in the Cardinals’ lineup, moving Gorman to fifth and O’Neill to sixth. The Cardinals lineup takes a hit without one of its stars.
Toronto Blue Jays (-116/4.42) @ Houston Astros (+107/4.17)
The Blue Jays are spiking unexpected power numbers against Astros starter Cristian Javier, a high-quality righty who has allowed just a 2.82% home run rate this year and had a 2.91% rate on just a 33.3% hard-hit mark last year. Javier is a flyball pitcher and the Blue Jays are loaded with home run potential in their lineup, so the combination could provide a few long balls, but ultimately this looks like a spot where the home run model might be outpacing the true nature of the stacking opportunity. Javier is a very good pitcher who strikes out a lot of hitters and makes it difficult to sequence and create runs when not hitting homers. The righty had an outstanding 33.2% strikeout rate over 148.2 innings in 2022 and a 30.7% rate in 101.1 innings between the bullpen and nine starts in 2021. Last season he pitched to a sterling 0.95 WHIP in spite of an 8.9% walk rate, this season his WHIP has jumped to 1.18 despite a 2.8% walk rate, because he has allowed more contact, striking out just 19.7% in what seems likely to be a blip. Javier is inducing a 13.4% swinging-strike rate, essentially the same number he posted last season when he was at 13.8%. He had a 28.3% CSW% last year and sits at a 28.5% mark this season. In his first three outings, Javier seems to have not been snapping his pitches off with quite the same level of spin, his fastball spin rate and his overall velocity have dipped to open the season, which could warrant concern in an extended sample, but for now, is probably still nothing. Javier is worth pitching shares, even against a stout Blue Jays lineup, at just $9,200/$9,900, and he should be low-owned so getting slightly over the field will not be a difficult proposition. At the same time, the Blue Jays lineup is potentially in play for the power upside on display, but they are most likely going to be limited by the holes Javier can poke in the lineup with strikeouts. Bats to consider for home run potential in the Toronto lineup include the obvious core of stars George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the top of the lineup. They are carrying excellent ratings in the home run model and that group of expensive hitters can sequence and create runs against anyone. Lefty slugger Daulton Varsho and right-handed third baseman Matt Chapman are good power bats in the heart of the order, and a sneaky home run hitter lurks just behind them in the form of lefty Brandon Belt. Belt could end up somewhat low-owned and he costs just $2,200 on both sites. The first baseman is slashing .152/.200/.242 in his part-time role in Toronto, but he is not far removed from the 2021 season in which he hit 29 home runs with a .323 ISO and a 158 WRC+ in only 381 plate appearances. Brandon Belt is a potentially sneaky home run play on this slate. The power diminishes in the bottom third of the lineup, but if Danny Jansen plays he can be rostered as a fairly inexpensive catcher where the position is required. Cavan Biggio and Kevin Kiermaier are cheap lefty bats, but both are limited MLB DFS contributors facing a tough pitcher.
This game takes true Four Corners shape, with excellent righty Kevin Gausman on the mound to face the Astros. Much like in the matchup we saw between the Rays and Blue Jays last night, with Shane McClanahan and Alek Manoah dueling, there will probably be low ownership across the board, as MLB DFS gamers tend to go away from games that feature good pitching against good offenses. This creates opportunities to roster some of the best lineups in baseball at low ownership, as if to prove the point, the Rays hung a large handful of runs on Toronto pitching in last night’s game, putting them on the board for MLB DFS relevance once again. The same thing could happen on any of the four sides of this game. Gausman makes a great option but he is pricey against this team at $10,200/$11,100. The righty is worth the investment at what will be low popularity, he has a 31.6% strikeout rate over his small 20-inning sample in three starts this year, and he was at a 28.3% mark in 174.2 innings last year with a 29.3% over 192 in 33 starts in San Francisco the season before. Gausman is proven as one of the top starters on baseball’s second tier, he is one level below the apex starters in the game, but he is reliably excellent, with this season’s small sample 2.62 xFIP nearly matching the 2.76 he posted for all of last year. Gausman will need to be on form to pay off his huge salary against an outrageously good Astros lineup, but he is likely to get there often enough to make the play worthwhile in small doses. On the hitting side, Houston is very much in play and, outside of their two big lefty stars, they come fairly cheap for their talent level. Leadoff man Chas McCormick is projected in the starting lineup at just $3,900/$3,600. Frequent readers will know of our esteem for the outfielder’s typically sturdy contact profile and under-appreciated home run potential. The MLB DFS world is more aware of McCormick, and he has become a hot waiver wire pickup in redraft leagues, erasing some of the value he derived from anonymity, but he is still a great option ahead of the hitters in this lineup and he creates fantasy points on his own. McCormick has two home runs and four stolen bases in 48 plate appearances this season, he should be in most Astros stacks if he starts tonight. Alex Bregman is off to a bad start, slashing just .194/.333/.306 with an 89 WRC+ over 75 plate appearances. The veteran hit 23 home runs last year with a diminished slash line but still created runs 36% better than average, he should be on his way to turning things around sooner rather than later. Yordan Alvarez is justifiably expensive at $6,300/$4,500, he has four home runs with a .288 ISO and a 165 WRC+ this season. Alvarez has one of baseball’s best bats, he hits for power and for average and maintains an excellent contact profile, he is always in play regardless of the opposing pitcher. First baseman Jose Abreu is creating runs at half the pace of a league-average player so far this season, but the star veteran first baseman is another safe bet for a turnaround over a fair sample. Abreu is slashing just .239/.282/.269 with a .030 ISO and no home runs in 71 opportunities to start his Astros career, we know for certain that he is a better hitter, just last year Abreu slashed .304/.378/.446 with a 137 WRC+ and 15 home runs in 679 plate appearances with the White Sox. At $5,700/$3,900, Kyle Tucker is the other expensive bat in the Astros lineup tonight. The low prices around the pair of lefty outfielders make it easy enough to string together a high-quality Astros stack. Tucker has hit four home runs and stolen four bases, he is slashing .302/.441/.566 with a .264 ISO and a 178 WRC+, he and Alvarez are a lethal pair even against a pitcher as good as Gausman. Shortstop Jeremy Pena displayed more quality over last season, he is slightly below average with a 98 WRC+ in the early going in 2023, but he already has two home runs and four stolen bases to his credit and seems on his way to a better-than-average run creation mark soon enough. Corey Julks, Mauricio Dubon, and Martin Maldonado round out the expected lineup with three playable mix-and-match pieces. Dubon is slashing .340/.364/.400 with a 117 WRC+ but no counting stats, he has been playing most days in the absence of Jose Altuve. Maldonado is a swappable part as a cheap DraftKings catcher who hits infrequent home runs, he has one this year and hit 15 in 379 plate appearances last season.
Play: Four Corners game: Cristian Javier, Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays bats, Astros bats, all in limited shares but over the field, assuming low ownership across the board.
Update Notes: The Blue Jays’ lineup is as expected. The Astros have Dubon leading off and McCormick missing another game with his eye injury. The rest of the lineup is as expected, with Jake Meyers stepping into the bottom of the batting order.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+125/5.63) @ Colorado Rockies (-136/6.51)
The game with the highest total on the board in Vegas and with the two highest implied team totals of the night is a contest between two of baseball’s worst teams. The Pirates are in Coors Field to do battle with the Rockies, in a game carrying a 12-run total and expectations of significant MLB DFS point creation across the industry. The Pirates’ mediocre lineup has a few bats who would be in play on any team but is mostly made up of semi-usable parts, Coors Field has them looking like the Dodgers or Braves for fantasy points tonight. The team is facing Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, a veteran lefty who is reliably around or below the league average on the mound. Freeland had a 17.1% strikeout rate with a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.53 ERA last year in 31 starts and 174.2 innings. He posted similar numbers with a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 4.26 xFIP and a 4.33 ERA over 120.2 innings in 2021. Last season, the southpaw gave up just a 2.48% home run rate but he allowed a 42% hard-hit rate with a 9.7% barrel rate, the year before he gave up a 3.88% home run rate but was at a 35.3% hard-hit mark with an 8.2% barrel rate. Ultimately, Freeland is a hittable lefty who allows fly balls and home runs, he does not generate the strikeout upside to make him an overly realistic play at $7,100 on DraftKings, and the $9,200 asking price for him on FanDuel is the product of someone’s fever-dream. Pirates leadoff man Ke’Bryan Hayes has to show something soon. The heralded prospect may go down as yet another disappointment in a long line of lackluster results in player development in Pittsburgh if results continue similar to his current .186/.250/.339 triple slash and 56 WRC+. While those results are in an unfair sample of just 64 plate appearances, Hayes was not much better in 560 opportunities last year, slashing .244/.314/.345 with a .101 ISO and an 88 WRC+ with seven home runs. He did manage to steal 20 bases, which is a good total with the relatively low on-base percentage, but Hayes has not been good at the Major League level. At just $3,800/$2,900, he is naturally in play at Coors Field, and he puts the ball in play with enough reliability to expect the gargantuan ballpark to help his cause, but the play seems thinner than it should and he is likely to be very popular. Bryan Reynolds would be a fixture in the lineup for MLB DFS on any team, he is the singular go-to star on the Pirates and he is probably on his way out of town this season. At $6,000/$4,400, Reynolds is the only truly expensive player in this game on either side, he is worth the investment even after a cool-off week. The outfielder started the season scorching to five quick home runs and three stolen bases, and he is sitting at a 139 WRC+ with a .302 ISO, he is very good but he will also be owned widely around the industry. Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana have been mentioned in this space several times as a good veteran power duo when looking at Pirates hitters. They each have two home runs this season and a track record of home run upside for years. McCutchen is slashing .298/.426/.489 with a .191 ISO and a 147 WRC+ this year, rounding out his career with quality in a return to Pittsburgh. Santana has a .193 ISO but has been slightly below average for run creation with a lesser triple-slash. Connor Joe has made the most of his 38 plate appearances so far and he is cheap at $3,500/$3,400. Joe is slashing .333/.421/.576 with a .242 ISO in the small sample. Joe, a former Rockies prospect, hit seven home runs with a .121 ISO last year with a weak contact profile, but he was a decently well-regarded bat who might be finding his way. Rodolfo Castro is another such player in the Pirates’ projected lineup, he is slashing .333/.442/.472 with a 153 WRC+ in 43 early plate appearances. Castro has a home run on the board this year and he hit 11 in just 278 plate appearances last year. There is some appeal in the 3-6 stretch in this lineup, but things fall off at the bottom third. Mark Mathias, Ji-Hwan Bae, and Austin Hedges are mix-and-match pieces if they are in the lineup, all three are well below average for run creation, but they at least come cheap and should be less popular than their teammates.
The hometown Rockies will be facing southpaw Rich Hill, which should play well for the right-handed bats in their lineup if nothing else. Hill is one of baseball’s oldest players, hanging on with the Pirates this season basically on the virtue of being left-handed and not overly expensive. Hill has posted a 12.3% strikeout rate and a 5.91 xFIP in his 15 innings over three starts this year, and he has given up six home runs to just 65 hitters, an unsustainable 9.23% home run rate this year. Last season, Hill pitched to a 20.7% strikeout rate with a 2.85% home run rate and a 4.12 xFIP, he is probably not as shot as he seemed so far this year, but Coors Field is not the place to work out your problems on the mound, Hill is an extraordinarily thin play at $6,000/$6,200 on the mound, the Rockies are a much better option. Jurickson Profar is slashing just .204/.245/.367 with two home runs and a 45 WRC+ over 54 plate appearance. Profar was not a part of this team until the last week of Spring Training, swiping a job from younger up-and-coming options like Nolan Jones, but he continues to get opportunities. The outfielder is fairly cheap at $3,600/$2,800 and he did hit 15 home runs last year, Profar is in play at the top of the Colorado lineup, but he is a limited player. Kris Bryant is not a limited player, he is an excellent veteran bat on the right side of the plate and he is pulling a strong projection for power and MLB DFS scoring tonight. Bryant is correctly a $5,500 option on DraftKings but he comes in at just $3,100 on the FanDuel slate, where he should be popular. The righty is slashing .295/.348/.393 and creating runs 11% below average with a bit of a power outage with just one home run and a .111 ISO, but he will absolutely come around as the season progresses. Bryant is a good correlation piece with Charlie Blackmon, who is in play despite the lefty starter if he is in the lineup, and C.J. Cron, who has major home run potential. Blackmon is at a 107 WRC+ over his 62 plate appearances this year, while Cron hit four early home runs but is sitting at just an 82 WRC+ so far. Both players have long track records of success, though Blackmon has been below average for run creation the last two seasons. Elias Diaz and Elehuris Montero are mid-range options on the right side of their platoon splits. Diaz is slashing .362/.423/.574 with a 154 WRC+ and two home runs in an excellent start over 52 plate appearances, but he was at a 67 WRC+ over 381 opportunities last year, so the jury is somewhat out on his overall quality. Montero is another young hitter off to a good start, the highly-regarded hitter is slashing .310/.341/.452 with a .143 ISO and a home run this year. Lefty Ryan McMahon will drop in the lineup against same-handed pitching, he has three home runs but a limited triple-slash this season. Yonathan Daza and Ezequiel Tovar are mix-ins from late in the lineup.
Play: Pirates stacks, Rockies stacks
Update Notes: both lineups were confirmed in their expected forms.
Chicago Cubs (-136/4.61) @ Oakland Athletics (+125/3.99)
One of the more interesting spots of the day sees another two fairly lousy teams facing one another, this time with talented young pitchers on the mound on either side potentially offering value. With the game taking place in Oakland’s spacious pitcher’s park, there is potential upside in getting to the low asking prices for what may be unpopular starters against bad lineups. Both pitchers have struggled out of the gate and are unlikely to be held in high esteem by the public, though they may draw value-based industry attention. Kyle Muller is a lefty who is one of baseball’s top pitching prospects. Muller broke camp with the A’s after making three starts in a cup of coffee last season and eight starts the year before while with the Braves’ organization. Muller had a 20.3% strikeout rate in 12.1 innings last year and a 23.9% mark in 36.2 the year before, but was not a polished item yet, which may still be true. So far this year, the southpaw has a 4.54 xFIP and just a 16.4% strikeout rate over 14.2 innings in three starts. Muller has induced just an 8.3% swinging-strike rate, he struggled to find quality against three very good lineups in facing the Angels, Guardians, and Orioles so far. The free-swinging Cubs lineup could be just what Muller needs to find his form and get his season rolling tonight, he has spent enough time developing as a solid strikeout option in the minor leagues. Muller had a 29.3% strikeout rate over 134.2 innings in AAA last year and a 27% rate over 79.2 at that level the season before, he costs just $6,600 on both sites against a Cubs lineup that has a worse-than-average strikeout rate to start the season. Chicago bats are moderately in play of course, Muller is an unproven pitcher who has struggled so far and the Cubs have enough talent to string together some runs, but overall they are not a top option. Nico Hoerner has eight stolen bases and a 113 WRC+ so far, he is a good correlation piece who does not strike out much and puts the ball in play, Muller needs to get Hoerner out three times to have any hope of a good day. Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ are two favorites in this space. Both players have long had under-appreciated contact profiles, with Swanson delivering more at the plate over time. They are not overly cheap, but they are both in play, so far this year the duo has created runs 34% and 62% better than average, with Swanson posting just a .057 ISO and no home runs despite a still-strong contact profile. Happ has hit two home runs and has a .231 ISO, he hits in front of Seiya Suzuki who has made 14 plate appearances this season and has one home run. Suzuki missed time with an injury but he is a quality bat who was above average for run creation in a full season last year, hitting 14 home runs and stealing nine bases over 446 plate appearances. In fact, the top six hitters in the Cubs’ projected lineup were all above average for run creation last year, this team could be somewhat better than their reputation. That is a trend that can easily apply to Patrick Wisdom and Trey Mancini in the heart of the order. Both power hitters have eligibility in the outfield, with Mancini adding first base and Wisdom picking up third base on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Wisdom is a third baseman exclusively, but both players are cheap and have value. Mancini has been slow to start in Chicago, but he is a proven bat and Wisdom has six home runs on the board this year already. He hit 25 in 534 plate appearances last year and blasted 28 in just 375 tries the season before. Wisdom is a major power hitter when he is going right, he has a 16.1% barrel rate and a 58.1% hard-hit so far this year. Cody Bellinger has not been terrible to start the season, turnaround watchers stay tuned to this one, the former MVP is sitting at .245/.317/.453 with a .208 ISO, three home runs, three stolen bases, and a 104 WRC+ over 60 plate appearances. While Bellinger may not be fully back, he has just a 6.7% barrel rate and a 33.3% hard-hit rate after all, those are very encouraging signs from a player who struggled mightily over the past few seasons. Yan Gomes and Nelson Velazquez round out the projected batting order with cheap low-rent options.
The Athletics are a less challenging lineup to face than any other in baseball. Taking them on this evening will be inexpensive rookie starter Hayden Wesneski, who checks in at $6,300/$7,200 from site to site and could provide sneaky value on this slate. It remains to be seen how highly the industry will own the Chicago starter, but he is on our radar with a strong MLB DFS projection in a good park against a bad lineup at his price tag. Wesneski is a high-end prospect, he had a 25% strikeout rate in 33 innings over a four-start cup of coffee last year, walking just 5.3% and posting a 0.94 WHIP with an 11.7% swinging-strike rate. The righty has made two starts so far this year, pitching at Cincinnati and at home against Seattle, things could have gone better. In the first start, Wesneski lasted 4.2 innings and faced 20 hitters, striking out four while walking two and giving up a pair of home runs, six hits, and three earned runs. In the start against the Mariners, he lasted just 1.1, facing 15 hitters and striking out no one. Wesneski walked four and was charged with just two earned runs, but seven runs scored in his 1.1 innings and he came out of the game early. The pitcher is better than that, at the very least, and he has an opportunity to right the ship against the lousy Athletics. Oakland’s lineup features plenty of strikeout opportunities and weak bats from top to bottom. The premium name in the current form of the lineup might be Brent Rooker, a career “quad-A” player who has too many holes in his swing to compete at the Major League level for long. Rooker has hit four home runs in 38 plate appearances, he has always been a thumper in the minors, but he struck out at a 33% rate in AAA last season, he is just not a Major League option, which is why he is on this team now in the first place. Tony Kemp and Ryan Noda offer limited cheap quality at the top of the lineup, Kemp is at a 48 WRC+ this season but had a 127 mark two years ago, but Noda is off to a good start to his career with a 134 WRC+ over his first 49 opportunities. The lefty has a .184 ISO and two home runs in the small sample. Rooker hits between Noda and Ramon Laureano, who has two home runs and two stolen bases this year and has filled both categories somewhat ably in the past. Jace Peterson, Aledmys Diaz, and Shea Langeliers are mixable pieces from the bottom of the lineup, the two infielders have minor power potential, while Langeliers is a capable bat for a small cost behind the plate. Connor Capel has three stolen bases but a 74 WRC+ and a .034 ISO over 32 opportunities this year, he has not shown much at this level, the better young bat from the bottom might be Esteury Ruiz, who is slashing .308/400/.385 with four stolen bases and a 134 WRC+ so far. This is not a great lineup, but they should probably be deployed at least as a hedge in some lineups when trying to thread the Wesneski needle.
Play: value pitching in limited doses, minor shares of Cubs bats
Update Notes: Esteury Ruiz is leading off for the Athletics, adding an interesting bat to the top of the lineup. Kevin Smith slots in ninth, Kemp fifth and Diaz is hitting third between Noda and Rooker, not that this improves Oakland’s lineup or overall outlook very much. The confirmed Cubs lineup replaced Velazquez with Nick Madrigal in the ninth spot. Madrigal is moderately playable as a cheap speed and correlation-based wraparound play.
Milwaukee Brewers (-136/.4.07) @ Seattle Mariners (+126/3.51)
The talented and inexpensive Brewers lineup is in Seattle today facing righty Chris Flexen, who is not an overly capable option on the mound. Flexen had just a 16.1% strikeout rate over 137.2 innings in 22 starts last year and a 16.9% rate in 179.2 innings the year before. The righty has a broad mix of pitches and he can keep hitters off balance, but overall he is not great, with too much contact available. Flexen allowed a 2.88% home run rate last year and a 2.56% mark the year before, he is not lousy for power, but he gives up plenty of fly balls and did yield a 39.6% hard-hit rate last year with a nine percent barrel rate, his home run prevention may have a benefitted somewhat from his home park. This season, Flexen has a 6.21 xFIP and a 10.9% strikeout rate over his two starts, and he has given up three home runs in his two starts and one relief inning. This is an opportunity for Brewers bats, but the park is not great and they will most likely be missing Jesse Winker once again, this time with a muscle strain. The projected Brewers lineup opens with Christian Yelich, who is inexpensive at $4,800/$3,100, the blue site price is notably low for a player who was once an MVP and who has never been bad. Yelich hits too many ground balls, which we will not stop mentioning until the trendline snaps, but he still hits the ball hard, steals bases, and creates runs. So far this year, Yelich has two home runs and he has stolen three bases, but his ISO is just .121 and he has only an 84 WRC+. He has hit the ball hard at his usually excellent 52.5% clip, however, and his barrel rate is creeping up at 5.0%, so he will be better in both of those categories shortly, get on board while he remains cheap. Willy Adames is slashing .259/.380/.448 with a .190 ISO and he has created runs 25% better than average for the season. The entire lineup after Yelich has an above-average run creation mark until it hits the rookie in the seven spot, with all of Adames, Rowdy Tellez, William Contreras, Garrett Mitchell, and Brian Anderson checking in at an average WRC+ 24% above the league average mark for run creation. Tellez has hit five home runs this year with a massive .320 ISO; Contreras has no home runs but a 115 WRC+ and a .318/.400/.364 triple-slash; Mitchell has three home runs with a .245 ISO; and Anderson has three home runs, a .231 ISO, and a 125 WRC+. That group of hitters is a high-quality stack that is underpriced in a good spot, if they also come up under-owned around the industry they are a spot on which to shove some chips into the middle of the table, the Brewers hit the ball extremely well for these prices and Flexen allows far too much contact, this is a good spot for Milwaukee’s 1-6. Brice Turang is the rookie dragging things down hitting seventh, but he has a 91 WRC+ and three stolen bases with a .273/.333/.364 triple slash over his fir 48 plate appearances, and he is a good prospect, so he is not out of play. Mike Brosseau is better against lefties but could surprise if he plays tonight, while Joey Wiemer has been limited in his 55 plate appearances.
Despite what sure looked like a solid return to form in his last outing, Corbin Burnes remains cheap at $8,800 on the DraftKings slate. The right-handed ace costs $10,000 on the blue site, which is also arguably too low relative to where Kevin Gausman is priced. Burnes’ surface stats for the season are still not strong, he has a 19.4% strikeout rate and a 4.11 xFIP with a 5.19 ERA over 17.1 innings in three starts, here’s hoping that keeps the field away for one more cheap start. In his most recent outing, the righty threw eight innings of three-hit shutout ball with eight strikeouts against a capable Diamondbacks lineup, he should have a great chance of posting a strong outing even against a tough Mariners lineup tonight. Burnes posted a 30.5% strikeout rate over 202 innings in 33 starts last year and a 35.6% rate over 167 innings in 2021, pitching to a 2.85 xFIP in 2022 and a 2.30 mark in 2021. When he is right, Burnes is inarguably one of the best pitchers in the National League, despite early warts and some late-season bumps last year, he seems likely to be back to form. Particularly if he comes up under-owned at the discounted prices, Burnes is very much in play for MLB DFS tournaments around the industry. Mariners bats can be played with tempered expectations. They probably should be played aggressively by those deciding to fade Burnes for doubts about his quality, that would be a natural contrarian position to take up if that is the situational read. Seattle should be fairly low-owned and they have star power in their lineup with Julio Rodriguez. Last year’s Rookie of the Year costs $6,200/$4,000 and is typically worth it, but he is facing a tough starter tonight and he sits at just a 103 WRC+ with two home runs and four stolen bases to start the season. Ty France, Eugenio Suarez, and Cal Raleigh are strong options from two through four in the lineup, France has a very strong hit tool and under-appreciated mid-grade power; Suarez is one of the league’s very best home run hitters despite his generally low triple-slash; and Raliegh blasted 27 home runs in 415 plate appearances with a .278 ISO and a 121 WRC+ as a catcher last year. Suarez is particularly interesting so far this season, he has two home runs and just a .138 ISO and is slashing .292/.338/.431 over 71 plate appearances in a bit of a reversal of his normal profile. Teoscar Hernandez has three home runs and a stolen base and is just below average at a 96 WRC+, but $3,300/$3,400 Jarred Kelenic is finally arriving. The outfielder had a fantastic Spring and was an early mention in this space and he has delivered a post-hype performance after two disappointing seasons, slashing .362/.423/.723 with four home runs and three stolen bases. Kelenic is creating runs 120% better than average over his 52 plate appearances this season while barreling the ball at a 21.9% clip with a 62.5% hard-hit rate. The most believable part of the start is the contact profile, which has always been strong, but Kelenic is very likely to be here for real, he was one of baseball’s premier hitting prospects before slipping on proverbial banana peels since arriving in the Show, it seems entirely likely that he just needed a minute to find his footing. Tommy La Stella, Kolten Wong, and JP Crawford round out the projected lineup, Wong is the best MLB DFS option at $3,400/$2,500, he has been slow to start but he hit 15 home runs and stole 17 bases and has been a usable part for years.
Play: Brewers stacks, Corbin Burnes, small doses of Mariners bats
Update Notes: Instead of LaStella, the bottom of the Mariners lineup includes Cooper Hummel, who is eligible at catcher and in the outfield for $2,300 on DraftKings and is a $2,000 outfielder on FanDuel, he is a marginal play at best. The rest of the lineup is as expected.
Atlanta Braves (-141/4.38) @ San Diego Padres (+130/3.71)
The Braves are leading the MLB DFS power index once again tonight. The loaded lineup faces lefty Ryan Weathers who checks in as a non-entity at $5,200/$6,200 across the industry. Weathers has a 13.2% strikeout rate over 10 innings in two starts this year, though he is yet to give up a home run all indications are that that will change in short order. In his most extended sample in 2021, Weathers allowed a 4.99% home run rate on a 43.2% hard-hit rate with an 8.4% barrel rate in 94.2 innings over 18 starts. This leads to Braves bats, which should play at least from one through seven in this matchup. The team starts, as always, with Ronald Acuna Jr. who is worth the spend at $6,500/$4,600. Acuna has three home runs and seven stolen bases with a 175 WRC+, he is getting on base at a .455 clip and is one of baseball’s best multi-category stars. Matt Olson leads the way in our home run model for the Braves despite the same-handed matchup. Olson has hit 33% of his career home runs against fellow lefties, in about the same percentage of his career plate appearances, he loses little if anything facing a southpaw, particularly a low-end option like Weathers. Olson may come up under-owned, the industry tends to overhype handedness matchups, and savvy MLB DFS gamers will pounce on the opportunity if that is the case. Austin Riley has three home runs and a 146 WRC+ with a .322/.417/.508 triple-slash to start the year, he is one of the top third basemen in the game and belongs in virtually every stack of Braves bats. Catcher Sean Murphy sees regular plate appearances even when DHing on an off day behind the plate, he is a strong play for a home run and has three on the board already this season. The top five hitters in the Braves lineup all have at least three home runs so far, in fact, with Olson leading the way. The fifth member of that club is second baseman Ozzie Albies, who has three home runs but no steals. Albies was a 30/20 player in 2021, he slipped last year and tends to be the unfairly skipped man when someone has to be cut from Atlanta stacks, getting over the field on shares of Albies is usually a good way to differentiate a large number of stacks of Atlanta hitters. Rookie Vaughn Grissom has made 13 plate appearances this year, he costs just $3,100/$2,800 and is very much a part of this offense. Marcell Ozuna has upside for power but has done literally nothing at the plate this season beyond the two home runs he hit. Kevin Pillar and Eli White are projected to start against the lefty, they are mix-ins at best.
The San Diego Padres are in the bottom spot of the Power Index today, they look like a flat play against Braves starter Max Fried, who has been excellent at limiting premium contact and home runs throughout his career. Fried has only 3.1 innings on his ledger this season, he left his first start and went to the IL with a hamstring injury, from which he will return tonight. The lefty threw 185.1 innings in 30 starts last year and allowed just a 1.64% home run rate on the back of a fantastic 31.9% hard-hit rate allowed. The southpaw yielded just a four percent barrel rate with a 7.6-degree average launch angle and just 86.2 mph average exit velocity for the season. Fried was similarly good at limiting hard hits, barrels, launch angle, exit velocity, and home runs in his 165.2 innings over 28 starts in 2021. The starter is not a major standout for strikeouts, but he is a somewhat above-average option who had a 23.2% rate last year and a 23.7% mark the season before, and he limits opportunities as well as anyone in baseball. Fried had just a 4.4% walk rate and a 1.01 WHIP last year and a 6.1% walk rate with a 1.09 WHIP the season before. The lefty had a 3.09 xFIP and a 2.48 ERA last year and a 3.45 xFIP with a 3.04 ERA the year before, it is equally as difficult to sequence and create runs against Fried as it is to hit home runs against him. This has Padres bats looking potentially overpriced and like something of a difficult spot for MLB DFS purposes. They may come up low-owned for the matchup, but Padres may be better left to the field in this matchup. Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto are the go-to Padres bats, they have a 3.43, 4.98, and 5.17 respectively in our home run model today. The numbers plummet from there, Nelson Cruz checks in with just a 3.44. Against a left-handed pitcher. Typically, Nelson Cruz against a lefty would leap over the 10 mark for an above-average chance at a home run, Fried saps power to this degree. Everyone else in the lineup is at a 3.0 or below for home run potential tonight, and there is not a significant amount of MLB DFS scoring projected beyond the top few hitters in the lineup. While San Diego has enough talent to get to anyone, and Fried is certainly by no means an always perfect pitcher, this seems like a spot to potentially get away from recognizable names in favor of better options.
Play: Braves stacks aggressively, Max Fried
Update Notes: Pillar is hitting seventh with Ozuna hitting eighth, which is a very slight ding to Ozuna’s home run mark, but everything is basically as expected for Atlanta.
New York Mets (+136/3.89) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-148/4.71)
The Mets and Dodgers round out the MLB DFS slate with a great late game that will see dueling starters David Peterson and Dustin May put their talents on display on the mound. The Mets will also be debuting top prospect Brett Baty, who was called up yesterday after a brief stint in the minors to start the season. Baty had a quick cup of coffee with 42 plate appearances last year, but he may be here to stay this time around. The visiting Mets and their prized rookie will be taking on May, who has posted a 17.6% strikeout rate with a 4.80 xFIP but a 1.47 ERA over his 18.1 innings and three starts this season. May has electric strikeout stuff but has struggled with staying healthy, so it remains to be seen what he is over time. The righty has pitched into the sixth inning or beyond in each of his three starts this season, which is a great initial sign. May struck out four Diamondbacks at home in a seven-inning three-hit start in his first outing, five of the same lineup in six road innings in which he gave up just two hits and a lone earned run, and then three Giants hitters in a 5.1-inning road start in which he gave up two runs on two hits but also walked four. The visiting Mets are better than both of those teams, so this will be an interesting challenge for May, whose early surface numbers are somewhat deceptive when considering his xFIP, a dip in strikeout rate, and just a 7.4% swinging-strike rate; May be more targetable than it seems and the Mets are very good. Brandon Nimmo should be a great early test, Nimmo is excellent at avoiding strikeouts, putting the ball in play, and getting on base. So far this season the lefty outfielder is slashing .286/.463/.367 with a 146 WRC+ he makes for a top correlation option when stacking Mets and he sometimes goes under-owned even when the team is popular because he generally lacks power upside. Starling Marte is off and running to start the year, the blazing-fast outfielder has seven stolen bases in his first 61 plate appearances, he has 15/50 potential for the season but just one home run on the board so far. Marte is cheap at $3,400 on FanDuel but costs $5,200 on DraftKings. Somehow, shortstop star Francisco Lindor remains at just $4,800 on the DraftKings slate though, so gamers can just pretend that he is higher and Marte is lower-priced to correct the obvious mistakes. Lindor is slashing .246/.371/.561 with a 151 WRC+ and four home runs as his bat has come to life in recent games. Pete Alonso is a $5,200/$4,000 play at first base, Alonso has a .417 ISO and eight home runs to lead baseball so far this year. His massive 21.7% barrel rate is well worth paying for, Alonso has been one of the best power hitters in the game since joining the league. Jeff McNeil gets on base with regularity and has a great hit tool, but he has struggled to start the year and sits at just a 98 WRC+ despite a .368 on-base percentage. McNeil is still a correlation option but he has been sub-par so far this year, though he does remain cheap. Mark Canha and Daniel Vogelbach offer veteran power upside on either side of the plate. Canha has hit two home runs and Vogelbach has none so far this season, but they were both in the teens last year and have shown mid-range quality for a long time. Baty is projected to hit eighth, he costs just $2,000 on the DraftKings slate but is missing on the blue site. The third baseman is thought of highly enough to warrant investment, particularly at the dead minimum price, in MLB DFS tournaments, he is firmly in play in this spot, even more so if he finds a better place in the batting order. Tomas Nido is a defensively-oriented catcher who can be skipped.
The Dodgers excellent lineup is in play more than lefty David Peterson, but as a value-based option at $6,800/$7,800, Peterson could provide just enough quality to get by in a tournament. There is not a lot of meat on the bone with that play, however, Peterson is talented and has strikeout ability, but the Dodgers’ lineup is better and the more likely scenario is that they outperform him in the matchup. For this season, Peterson has made three starts and has a 23.9% strikeout rate in 14.2 innings while pitching to a 3.75 xFIP. He put up a strong 27.8% rate over 105.2 innings in 19 starts with a 3.31 xFIP last year and had a 24% rate in 66.2 the year before, so there is quality in Peterson’s left arm, at what will probably be no ownership and a very low price tag, it is worth a few darts. Of course, getting to shares of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman is a good idea against anyone in baseball. Betts is slashing .267/.397/.467 and creating runs 38% better than average. He earns his $5,900/$3,700 (cheap on FanDuel!) with two home runs and a .200 ISO as well as an excellent ability to provide correlated scoring. Freeman sits at a $5,600/$3,600 (also cheap!) price despite slashing .302/.397/.413 with a 127 ISO to start his season. The first baseman is worth the money, he hit 21 home runs and created runs 57% better than average his first year in Los Angeles in 2022 and is looking equally as good this year so far. J.D. Martinez has a home run and a .230 ISO with his airway just at the waterline with a 100 WRC+ over 68 plate appearances with the Dodgers so far, Martinez is an OK option in the heart of this lineup, but he typically gets attention when Dodgers stacks are popular and he may not warrant the popularity at times. Max Muncy has six home runs with a ridiculously good .340 ISO and a 134 WRC+ over 63 plate appearances, he has been mashing from the left side of the plate while Trayce Thompson slots in behind him on the right side when a lefty is on the mound. Thompson has four early home runs and a .480 ISO to start the year. He has made just 31 plate appearances so all of this is an unrealistic sample, but he has managed to barrel the ball at a 38.5% clip with a 61.5% hard-hit rate in the few opportunities. Thompson has a very sturdy power bat when he lands on the correct side of his platoon splits, putting him in play in this matchup. Miguels Vargas and Rojas are in play if they are hitting late in the lineup, as is Chris Taylor, but the quality for the Dodgers is primarily from one through five tonight.
Play: some Mets bats, some Dodgers bats, minor shares of value pitching if inclined
Update Notes: Baty was an important late addition to the FanDuel player pool, he checks in at $2,500 and is very much in play if he is in the lineup. Chris Taylor is hitting cleanup for the Dodgers, between Martinez and Muncy, the rest of the lineup is Vargas-Thompson-Rojas-Wynns so a slightly different order to the same players.
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