A massive 11-game Tuesday night slate brings a handful of games sporting major offensive potential, plus a Coors Field game that has a 12.5-run total on the board in Vegas. With Coors Field going off in a big way last night, at least on the Pirates’ end of things, the public will most likely flock to the teams in the Colorado ballpark. While rostering bats in Colorado home games is rarely a total mistake, there are often days like today where other spots around the league are showing quality upside for power and MLB DFS point-scoring that also feature better lineups and individual hitters. If the public leaves those options under-owned, it makes sense to play exploitatively and get beyond the field on a few quality options while undercutting – but still playing – the Coors Field game. Of course, just loading up on bats in the Colorado game and hoping it goes sideways for runs once again is always a potential strategy as well.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 4/18/23
Los Angeles Angels (+135/4.35) @ New York Yankees (-147/5.25)
After a brief trip forward in time to late June when it comes to New York Area weather last week, things have fully returned to mid-April on a cool, overcast, grey day in the Northeast. The Angels and Yankees will be doing battle in the Bronx in those conditions this evening and, while the stadium may not play like mid-Summer as we saw late last week, there is plenty of power on the board with the two star-studded teams in action. The visiting Angels are facing Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt, who has made three starts and covered 10.2 innings so far this season. Schmidt has decent stuff but has never been able to fully crack the rotation, in part thanks to the way the Yankees approach pitching with high-priced veteran talent, but also partly through results as well. Schmidt’s three starts this season have all been of the short variety, he threw 3.1 innings in both of his first two outings, first allowing three runs on five hits while striking out five Giants, then yielding four runs on five hits while striking out just three Orioles. The third start saw Schmidt complete the fourth inning, but he did not pitch in the fifth after allowing six hits, including a home run, and three runs with three strikeouts. With another short leash seemingly likely tonight, there are better options on the board for pitching, even with the free-swinging Angels on the other side. Schmidt is simply unlikely to find the depth or quality to pay off even his $6,300/$6,400 salary. As a dart throw of an SP2 on DraftKings, a few shares are fine to include if you’re a member of the Schmidt family or someone is blackmailing you into it, but he is not viable on FanDuel with his extremely low chance of booking the quality start bonus. The Angels are showing quality potential for creating MLB DFS scoring in this matchup tonight, the lineup is filled with power and features several stars, some of whom check in a bit underpriced tonight. Taylor Ward is slashing .238/.333/.349 with just a .111 ISO and two home runs to start the season, but he was an excellent correlation piece who had a .360 OBP and a 137 WRC+ over 564 plate appearances last year while adding 23 home runs and a .192 ISO of his own. Ward hit in streaks last year and may do the same this season, he should be included for his upside at $5,000/$3,800 particularly if the rest of the public leaves him on the table. Mike Trout is not a name anyone is unfamiliar with, but he is a bit cheap on the DraftKings slate at just $5,700, while he costs a full $4,400 on FanDuel. The DraftKings number is not low on its own, but Trout is a $6,000 player based on pricing today and other days for similar talent. His teammate, Shohei Ohtani, for example, costs $6,300 hitting third in the same lineup today. That price is correct for Ohtani’s talent, particularly hitting left-handed in Yankee Stadium against a pitcher of this nature. Trout should be in a similar price range. Oddly, the blue site made their pricing mistake on Ohtani, who lands at just $3,900 and looks like a phenomenal play in this matchup. Getting Ohtani for just $100 more than Ward shows how broken the price is without further explanation. The pair of stars has been roughly on-form to start the season, Trout is slashing .278/.435/.537 with a .259 ISO and a 174 WRC+, and three home runs, Ohtani is at .298/.385/.491 with a .193 ISO and a 143 WRC+, he has also hit three home runs. Forgotten and disrespected man Anthony Rendon is worthy of lineup shares when he is healthy and hitting in the heart of this batting order. Rendon has missed significant time with injuries and stupidity, but he is a premium bat at the hot corner and he is not priced like it. The third baseman costs $4,200/$3,000 today, he is currently slashing .286/.421/.321 with a .036 ISO and a 120 WRC+. Rendon has not hit for power at all yet this season, he has a 0.0% barrel rate and a 35.7% hard-hit in his tiny sample of 38 plate appearances, but we can assume there is at least a modicum of pop on the way for a proven hitter when he is making regular contact, and he is still creating runs well above league average. Hunter Renfroe has hit four home runs to lead the team so far this season, he has a .267 ISO with a 148 WRC+ and checks in at $5,100/$3,500, which is too low a price on the FanDuel slate. Renfroe is a top power hitter, he had 29 home runs last year and 31 the season before, posting a .236 ISO and a .242 ISO respectively. The outfielder has two-dinger potential on any given slate, he is likely to come up less popular than he should be this evening, which would make him interesting as a one-off beyond Angels stacks as well. Jake Lamb and Brandon Drury continue the power trend through the bottom of the lineup, Lamb hits from the left side of the plate and could be dangerous in a Yankee Stadium game, though he is yet to hit a home run in his 36 plate appearances this year. Drury has one home run on the season and has scuffled his way to just a 50 WRC+, but he is coming off of a big year that came after specific deliberate changes to his swing, so patience is warranted. Rookie Zach Neto is a good option at shortstop who is still relatively anonymous for MLB DFS gamers after just 13 plate appearances. Neto was the first call-up from the 2022 draft, he has a very strong bat and is finding his footing at just $3,000/$2,200. Logan O’Hoppe rounds out the projected lineup with a playable catcher bat, he has four home runs to tie Renfroe for the team lead and he has posted an excellent contact profile, delivering on his reasonably good prospect pedigree.
The Yankees look like a fairly good option as well, though they are rolling out a diminished form of their powerful lineup in the absence of Giancarlo Stanton, who has yet another injury that will sideline him for a month or so. The frustrating power hitter leaves a big hole in the Yankees lineup, but they are still loaded with pop and have strong on-base and run-creation skills. The team is facing league-average lefty Jose Suarez, who posted a 3.86 xFIP with a 22.3% strikeout rate over 109 innings last year and a 4.33 xFIP with a 20.6% strikeout rate the year before. Suarez has not allowed a massive amount of power in his career, with a fairly decent ability to keep his hard-hit rate between 34 and 38% and not allow significant average exit velocities. The lefty has made two starts this year, pitching just 8.1 innings. He struck out four Mariners but allowed two home runs and was charged with six earned runs on eight hits in his first outing, a game he followed up by striking out just two of the lowly Nationals while giving up 10 hits and getting charged with four earned runs. The Yankees lineup is in play against Suarez tonight, the lefty is not overly appealing at $6,900/$6,500 but there is the slight notion of some strikeout upside, he is at best an SP2 dart throw. The projected Yankees lineup has rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe in the leadoff role. Volpe has significant speed and he is an aggressive baserunner so far in his career. Volpe has stolen seven bases, mostly hitting late in the lineup and getting on at just a .309-clip so far this season over his 55 plate appearances. The prized rookie has hit one home run but is slashing .191/.309/.319 with a .128 ISO and an 82 WRC+ overall to start his career. The leadoff role may help Volpe find his form, the kid has a solid track record of minor league success and he is a very highly regarded prospect, in the meantime his speed and correlated scoring alone will keep him viable at just $3,300/$2,800 if he is at the top of this lineup. Aaron Judge is Aaron Judge. First baseman Anthony Rizzo is off to another strong start, he is slashing .315/.406/.574 with a .259 ISO and a 174 WRC+ over his 64 plate appearances and sits second to Judge with four home runs to the team Captain’s five. Rizzo is an underrated play at first base on a daily basis, he costs $4,500/$3,500, which is too cheap on both MLB DFS sites. Gleyber Torres slots into the projected cleanup role, he will need to help cover the absence of Stanton, and he has been productive to start the season. Torres costs $4,700/$3,700 which is cheap for a second baseman who has two home runs and five stolen bases with a 167 WRC+ and a .204 ISO in this lineup and ballpark. The same could be said for DJ LeMahieu, who comes in at $4,400 with second and third base eligibility on DraftKings and is a $3,200 option at those two positions and first base on FanDuel. LeMahieu is slashing .283/.353/.543 with a .261 ISO and a 149 WRC+ in his 51 plate appearances this season and has hit two home runs. He was out of the lineup with a lingering injury over the weekend but has overall been back to form after two years that were diminished by pain. Oswaldo Cabrera is the best name in the bottom half of the Yankees lineup tonight, which is telling. The young utility player is cheap in the outfield on DraftKings, but he is a better asset on FanDuel, where he slots into the outfield and can also play third base or shortstop. With two players who are eligible at three positions, and who share only third base in that mix, the Yankees have significant flexibility in creating stacking combinations with other teams, and the pricing on those flexible bats makes it easy to combine Yankees and another highly projected significant stack. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is in the projected lineup, he is not a good hitter but can deliver random production at times, the Yankees would be better off with a different option. Jose Trevino has hit a home run this year and had 11 last season, but he is more of a defensive catcher, while Aaron Hicks is lurking at the bottom of the lineup. Hicks is roundly booed every time he comes to the plate in home games, which probably does not help matters, ask Joey Gallo. The outfielder has struggled and has a -17 WRC+ in 23 plate appearances this year, and he has been below average for the past two seasons, over which he has made roughly 600 plate appearances total. Hicks’ profile formerly said that he was great at getting on base, and the hitter does still see a high number of pitches in many of his plate appearances, but he has not produced in a long time. Last season, Hicks had a .330 on-base percentage over 453 plate appearances and created runs 10% below average. There is enough random baseball upside at $2,100 on both sites that Hicks can be included in some Yankees stacks, but expectations should be held in check for a player who has been struggling for some time now.
Play: Angels stacks, Yankees stacks
Update Notes: Both lineups were confirmed in their expected forms. The run total bumped by a half-run with most of the implied run weight on the New York side.
Baltimore Orioles (-138/4.90) @ Washington Nationals (+127/4.20)
One of the top matchups of the day sees the excellent young Orioles lineup taking on Josiah Gray, who, yes, has been somewhat better in his two recent outings. Gray was a massive target for home runs for the last two years and he allowed three in his first start of 2023, then he stopped throwing his fastball. The righty has cut his overall fastball usage from 43% last year to just 27% this season, which is a good idea when hitters had a .632 xSLG and hit 24 home runs against the pitch last season. In his second start this year, Gray shocked the MLB DFS world by pitching six innings of the one-run eight-hit ball and striking out six while not allowing a home run at Coors Field, of all places. In his recent outing against the Angels, Gray did allow a long ball, but he was mostly effective in limiting Los Angeles to just two earned runs and four hits while striking out three. Despite his struggles, Gray did strike out 23.7% of opposing hitters over 148.2 innings last year and 24.8% in 70.2 in 2021, so he is not entirely bereft of potential at $6,500/$7,600, but everything in our model still points to the Orioles lineup as the much stronger part of this equation. Cedric Mullins II leads off with a 128 WRC+ over his first 73 plate appearances this year. Mullins has hit two home runs and stolen eight bases and it’s only April 18th. The outfielder has an excellent chance to exceed the 34 bases he stole last season while hitting 20 or more home runs. He was a 30/30 player in 2021, the upside is clearly there and Mullins costs $5,500 on DraftKings but just $3,400 on the FanDuel slate. He is followed by Adley Rutschman whose $5,400 price is arguably too cheap where catchers are mandatory. Rutschman is slashing .344/.481/.574 with a .230 ISO and four home runs to start his 2023 campaign, he is an excellent backstop in stacks and as a pricey one-off. Ryan Mountcastle hits the ball as hard as anyone in baseball, he has 25 batted ball events with more than 100 mph of average exit velocity this season (thank you Fangraphs for the article that mentioned that while talking about how Luis Arraez has zero). Mountcastle has translated that into six early home runs and a .319 ISO with a 104 WRC+, he is underpriced by about $1,000 on the DraftKings slate where he costs just $4,700 in this matchup and by $500 on a FanDuel slate that sees him at just $3,600. Mountcastle is sporting a 15.82 in our home run model today, he makes for an outstanding choice for a long ball or two tonight. Baltimore’s lineup rolls with switch-hitting power bat Anthony Santander, who is cheap while struggling to get his season in gear. Santander hit 33 home runs last year and 18 the year before, this year he has just one in 64 opportunities while sporting a .123 ISO, down nearly 100 points from last season’s typically excellent .214 mark. Santander is a proven bat, he will find his way and it makes sense to play him when he is cheap. Adam Frazier slots into the fifth spot in the projected lineup, he is an inexpensive option who has limited appeal and is miscast this high in the batting order. Austin Hays, on the other hand, is off to an outstanding start after several productive years. Hays has been featured in this space over the past few days, and he joined Mountcastle with mentions in our Home Run Picks today. Hays has three on the season with a .283 ISO and has barreled the ball at a 22.7% clip with a 45.5% hard-hit rate, he is too cheap at $3,900/$3,200. Gunnar Henderson is not off to the start he was probably expecting, but he is a premium prospect with an extremely long leash, he will produce beyond the current .178/.373/.289, but the excellent on-base mark is already keeping him above water for run creation. Henderson has a 104 WRC+ to go with a home run and a stolen base, he is not off the board even as he searches for his hit tool. Jorge Mateo is one of the darlings of this space and he is off to a ridiculous start that not even we would have forecast. Mateo has found his power stroke early in the season, he has three home runs on the board already and is driving the ball regularly, posting a .279 ISO to go with his 196 WRC+. Mateo’s best attribute has long been that he is probably the fastest player in baseball, but he has always struggled to get on base. He stole 35 bases last season while getting on at just a .267 clip. So far this year, the shortstop is getting on at a .431 pace and he has stolen eight bases while slashing .372/.431/.651. $4,200/$3,700 is too cheap for that type of production at a premium position, regardless of where Mateo hits in the lineup. Terrin Vavra is the minimum price on both sites if he is hitting ninth again, that is his best attribute.
The Nationals lineup is also somewhat in play tonight. The home team is facing Dean Kremer, a roughly league-average starter who does not flash much upside for strikeouts. Kremer had a 17% rate over 125.1 innings in 21 starts last year and a 19.2% mark in 53.2 innings in 2021. The young righty has made three starts and thrown 12.1 innings this year, posting a lowly 13.8% strikeout rate and a 10.3% walk rate while allowing a 46.5% hard-hit rate in the tiny sample. Kremer allowed two home runs in his first start and his third start of the season, he gave up just one in the middle game, a five-inning outing that was technically his best of the season. That game saw Kremer give up four earned runs while striking out four and walking three, he is not very good but he comes at extremely cheap pricing on both sites tonight and is facing a very low-end lineup. Kremer is yet another value-based dart throw option on the mound from the early games, he does not have to do very much at $6,200 on both sites, but he is unlikely to even get to that level of value, the play is very thin. On the Nationals’ side, things do not look much more reliable. The lousy lineup now has three players with an above-average WRC+, Jeimer Candelario is at a 102, Lane Thomas has a 105, and Victor Robles still leads the team with a 108 from the bottom of the lineup. Five hitters in the projected starting lineup are yet to hit a home run this season. The team leader is currently Candelario who has three with a .179 ISO that ties Luis Garcia for the team lead. Garcia has hit two home runs, Keibert Ruiz has one and Alex Call has another, and that is the story of this team’s power output so far this season. Last year’s standout Joey Meneses is slashing just .238/.284/.302 with a .063 ISO and a 58 WRC+ and has hit no home runs so far. Dominic Smith has a .000 ISO over 63 plate appearances. This is just not a good lineup, mix and match for cheap value against a lousy pitcher, but don’t get carried away, this team is much more likely to provide around their 4.24 implied runs than they are to put a bendy number on the scoreboard, regardless of the opposing pitching quality.
Play: Orioles stacks aggressively, maybe some value pitching, very minor shares of Nationals bats if you feel it
Update Notes: The Orioles lineup is as expected with the exception of the nine spot, which will be lefty Ryan O’Hearn who is a slightly better option than Vavra at $2,600/$2,000. The Nationals have Thomas-Smith-Meneses-Candelario up top with Stone Garrett adding a minor power uptick to the bottom half of the lineup. Garrett has a 7.22 in the home run model, he has one long ball and is slashing .563/.611/.938 with a .375 ISO and a 306 WRC+ in 18 plate appearances.
Minnesota Twins (-105/4.31) @ Boston Red Sox (-103/4.28)
The Twins are in Fenway Park to face MLB DFS enigma Chris Sale, who has made three wild starts to open the 2023 season. Sale first faced Baltimore in a game in which he struck out six of 19 hitters in just three innings, but also walked two and was charged with seven earned runs on seven hits, including three home runs. The former ace then went to Detroit for a get-right start against the lowly Tigers that saw him strike out seven of 23 hitters over five innings of three-run four-hit ball. Sale was not exactly good in that start, he walked three and allowed a home run and premium contact, but his xFIP was better than his ERA for the game, which has been true in each of his starts. The third outing saw Sale again yield a home run, this time allowing five earned runs on seven hits with six strikeouts while facing 22 Rays hitters in just four innings. Sale comes into this slate at $7,500/$7,700, with his strikeout upside against a free-swinging Twins team there is a major appeal in getting to the pitcher at that price while ignoring the big flashing warning sign that is telling us something is not right. Sale may just need to round into form, he has not been a regular pitcher for several seasons after suffering a number of stupid injuries. The home runs and contact profile he has allowed to this point in the season are absolutely concerning, he has a gargantuan 7.81% home run rate with a 48.6% hard-hit and 13.5% barrel rate, those are unsustainable numbers regardless of strikeout potential. Sale’s WHIP is sitting at 2.08, another wildly unsustainable mark that is connected in part to a 10.9% walk rate but also to a ridiculous .406 batting average on balls in play to this point. Overall, Sale has been what baseball people call “not good” to start the year, but he has also been deceptively better than the surface numbers that may be in front of the public. He has a ridiculous 11.25 ERA on the back of the bad luck and all of those home runs, but his xFIP is actually perfectly fine at 3.74, he has a 29.7% strikeout rate and has induced a 12.6% swinging-strike rate with a 30.4% CSW%. Underneath it all, there is still potential in Sale’s formerly elite left arm. At these prices against a team that has an average strikeout rate of 25.9% in the projected starting lineup, Sale is a play on both sites tonight. Meanwhile, the Twins should also be deployed against all of the negatives that were just mentioned about Sale. While the team strikes out far too much, they have significant power in the lineup as well, even with slugger and another column favorite Joey Gallo unlikely to return from the IL tonight with a southpaw on the mound. Leadoff superstar Byron “don’t call me Brandon, EMac” Buxton checks in for just $5,000/$3,600, another star player misprice on both sites. Buxton has two home runs and just a .164 ISO this season, but he hit 28 home runs in just 382 plate appearances last year while posting a .303 ISO and a 136 WRC+. Buxton is a star by any measure other than average games played per season, which is always a problem. When he is in the Twins lineup he can be played in any format as part of a stack or as a one-off. Carlos Correa is extremely cheap for his talent and position at $4,600/$2,900 despite a slow start at .208/.269/.369. Correa has two home runs and a .188 ISO to go with a 14.7% barrel rate and a 44.1% hard-hit mark to start the season, there is nothing wrong with the star shortstop, he and Buxton are a great underpriced pair to target against Sale. Donovan Solano takes the Twins’ power projections off a cliff in the three spot in the projected lineup, he has just a 2.6% barrel rate this year and sported a 5.9% with a 39.7% hard-hit rate in 304 plate appearances while hitting four home runs last year. Solano would be better hitting further down the lineup but he is projected in the top end in a run of right-handed hitters to counter the lefty Sale. Solano is very cheap as a correlated scoring piece however, if he hits in this spot he can be included simply to help average down pricing and popularity on other bats. Jose Miranda is a good hitter in the cleanup role for just $2,900/$2,600, though he is also out to a very slow start and has shown no power with a .032 ISO and no home runs. Last year in a fair sample, Miranda hit 15 home runs and had a .158 ISO with a productive 117 WRC+. Ryan Jeffers and Kyle Garlick offer limited potential with some power for very little money on the right side of the plate when going hunting for home runs late in the lineup. Garlick lands third on the team with a 6.59 in our home run model, he has made just four plate appearances this season and has a home run to his credit. The quad-A player made 162 plate appearances last year and hit nine home runs with a .200 ISO and 104 WRC+, he costs $2.300/$2,000 if he plays. Willi Castro is projected to hit ahead of left-handed rookie Edouard Julien, the only lefty projected to start for Minnesota today. Julien is a highly regarded prospect hitter, but this may not be the best spot to play him, Castro has light power and Michael A. Taylor slots in with his random slate-breaking power potential. Taylor has three home runs in 57 plate appearances, with two coming in one game at Yankee Stadium last week, he is a limited player who has an annoying habit of getting involved when you don’t own him in MLB DFS tournaments. Taylor is sitting at a 105 WRC+ and can be included in the rotation of Twins stacks if building several.
If Sale is an enigma, Sonny Gray is just annoying. The roller coaster righty is off to a typical start this year, he has a strong 27.9% strikeout rate but a 10.3% walk rate. He has pitched to a 0.53 ERA but a 4.19 xFIP. He has not allowed a home run but regularly gives up fly balls with average exit velocities approaching 90 mph. Gray is a frustrating pitcher to roster, but he has been good enough over time that he is probably too cheap at $9,800 on the FanDuel slate, and he is definitely underpriced at DraftKings’ $8,600 ask. Gray had a 24% strikeout rate over 119.2 innings with a 3.66 xFIP last year and a 27% rate with a 3.66 xFIP over 135.1 innings the year before, and he has been relatively reliable at keeping the ball in the yard over the past few seasons. The righty is facing a Red Sox lineup that has been ok for run creation and has Rafael Devers providing all of its power. Devers has seven home runs in 70 plate appearances, the next-highest Red Sox home run output is rookie Triston Casas with two. Devers is projected to hit second in the lineup, he is always in play and has a 7.67 in our home run model. The third baseman joins the highest-priced players on the slate with a $6,000/$4,400 salary but he can be included in stacks or rostered as a one-off and he likely will not be crushingly popular in the matchup. Lefty leadoff man Alex Verdugo makes for a good pairing with Devers, Verdugo is a strong correlation piece who is off to a .328/.394/.438 start and has created runs 32% better than average to start his season. Justin Turner has a home run and a 117 WRC+ over his first 73 plate appearances with Boston, the veteran is still capable at the plate for the salary, he hits in front of Mastaka Yoshida who has thus far largely proven the critics who said the Red Sox overpaid for his services to be absolutely correct, but these are still very very early returns. Yoshida is slashing just .186/.340/.279 with a .093 ISO and one home run over his first 53 plate appearances. He has a 2.6% barrel rate and a 34.2% hard-hit rate, but there are encouraging indicators in his already decent on-base percentage and the fact that he has struck out at just a 9.4% clip with a 15.1% walk rate early in his Major League career. Yoshida is a proven veteran of Japan’s NPB, he is likely to figure things out at least to the tune of mid-range production. Casas hits fifth and brings power upside, but he has struggled for contact and has not gotten on base or created runs, his WRC+ is a lowly 43 over 54 plate appearances. Enrique Hernandez, Reese McGuire, Christian Arroyo, and Jarren Duran, who was just recalled from AAA, area all replacement-level pieces in the bottom of the lineup. The journeyman Hernandez is the most proven but he has scuffled to start the season, the others are of diminishing quality, though Duran is a young player with moderate power and speed potential who could play as min-price wraparound in Boston builds. The Red Sox are a lower-middle-class stack in this matchup tonight.
Play: Chris Sale, Twins top-end bats, Sonny Gray, and maybe a few Red Sox bats as low-priority plays
Update Notes: The confirmed Twins lineup has Solano leading off with Buxton hitting third between Correa and Miranda. Christian Vazquez drops into the lineup hitting sixth behind Garlick and Max Kepler is a quality left-handed power stick in the eight spot for just $3,700/$2,300. Duran is hitting eighth for Boston with Yu Chang ninth. The run total dropped be a half-run, costing each team a quarter-run in the implied team total with the even read in Vegas, even Sin City seems not to know exactly what to make of Chris Sale in this spot, making it an even more appealing place to make a stand for MLB DFS purposes.
Texas Rangers (-114/4.66) @ Kansas City Royals (+105/4.44)
The Rangers got out to a great start and looked like a stack on their way to a slate-breaking night after being heavily featured in this space yesterday, but then their four early runs became the final score after Jordan Lyles found his form and somehow made it through another seven innings. Tonight’s starter Brad Keller will be hard-pressed to repeat the trick pulled by his teammate, though Keller is not giving up the home run and power projections that we saw against Lyles 24 hours ago. The righty has made three starts this season, pitching to a 2.12 ERA but a 4.14 xFIP that is notably quite a bit higher. Keller has a 23.2% strikeout rate but an 11.6% walk rate to start the year in his 17 innings, the strikeouts are unrealistically high, and he has been a 17-20% strikeout pitcher over time, but the walks are about right, Keller walked 9.2% last year and 10.4% the season before, he is not good overall. The one discernable talent that the pitcher truly does have is an ability to keep the ball generally down and mostly in the ballpark. Keller allowed just a 6.7-degree average launch angle with a 2.76% home run rate last year despite a 41.4% hard-hit rate, and in 2021 he gave up a 2.94% home run mark on a 7.9-degree average launch angle despite a 44.3% hard-hit rate. Keller should not be trusted for MLB DFS but he might have the ability to stymie the Rangers’ offense, which puts them in just the middle of the stacks board. Marcus Semien hit a home run for us last night to get things going, he now has three on the season with a 101 WRC+ and a .194 ISO, he is always in play and he remains inexpensive at $3,300 on FanDuel. Travis Jankowski can put the ball in play and run, he could provide correlated scoring if he hits second again, he is cheap but not overly good. Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia are in the heart of the projected order, both are reliably good options for power and Garcia adds speed upside, while Lowe has the better overall hit tool. Garcia sat last night but is expected to return to the lineup tonight, giving the Rangers at worst a playable core of Semien-Lowe-Garcia, to which Jankowski can be added at limited appeal, with Josh Jung providing a better but probably more popular option from the five spot in the lineup. Jung hit a home run last night and has three on the season with a .203 ISO and 129 WRC+. Catcher Jonah Heim costs $3,200/$3,000, he has a .195 ISO and a pair of home runs to start the season. Heim is one of several Rangers hitters who strike out too much, as is Jung, but that should be less of an issue against Keller, there is an opportunity for a lot of balls in play in this matchup. Robbie Grossman, Josh Smith, and Leody Taveras round out the Rangers lineup, Taveras is the most interesting name hitting ninth as a potential wraparound play that is much the same as it was described here yesterday. He is cheap at $2,200/$2,500, but that is for a good reason, he is a limited player who slashed .261/.309/.366 with a 93 WRC+ and a .105 ISO last year, but he has speed. Taveras stole 11 bases and hit five home runs in the opportunities he got last year, he has a touch of potential at the bottom of the batting order.
The Rangers rotation may have taken a major blow with Jacob deGrom leaving what was a no-hit bid after just four innings with what was described as “wrist pain” last night. Losing deGrom would make tonight’s starter Nathan Eovaldi arguably the best Texas pitcher, which would not be a good situation for a pricey team with visions of contending. Eovaldi takes the hill tonight in Kansas City for what projects like a good potential matchup. The veteran righty is inexpensive on DraftKings and $7,800, he costs $9,100 on the blue site which makes him easily playable but not quite a bargain. Eovaldi has been good to start the year, despite the surface blemish that is a 6.32 ERA. Over his 15.2 innings in three starts, the righty has a 27.9% strikeout rate and just a 4.4% walk rate, he has pitched to a 2.69 xFIP underneath that ugly ERA and has been excellent in inducing a 13.3% swinging-strike rate with a 31.4% CSW% in the tiny sample. At worst, these marks tell us that Eovaldi has started the season in good form and has just gotten unlucky, at best they are telling us that he is pitching at a somewhat higher level than the past two seasons, an expanded sample will be telling. For now, Eovaldi should be deployed with enthusiasm in a matchup that gives him a bump in strikeout upside. The righty has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate but he has kept that on a 1.7-degree average launch angle so far this season, and he is yet to allow a barreled ball. The Royals’ projected starting lineup has an average current-year strikeout rate of 25.6% this season, Eovaldi could cruise to a strong score, but there is also lurking power potential in the lineup, making this an interesting both-sides option. Kansas City has four quality power bats atop the lineup in Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Sal Perez, who would go righty-lefty-lefty-righty in that order when a shuffled-handedness would make more sense, but that’s Royals baseball. Either way, there is power potential across those four hitters who are all cheap on the FanDuel slate, with only Witt’s $3,100 cresting the $3,000 salary mark. The Royals’ entire lineup is easy to afford and is a reasonable value play against a pitcher who allowed a 4.57% home run rate last year. The bottom of the lineup trails off quickly, Kyle Isbel is not much of an option, while Edward Olivares has potential but is young and unpolished at the plate. Olivares has a home run and a .154 ISO but a 75 WRC+. Michael Massey has struggled for quality and Nicky Lopez has never offered much, but Franmil Reyes would be in play for his oddball long-ball potential. Eovaldi is the preferred option when deciding between him or Royals bats, they are a middling stack with power potential up top but a lack of secondary quality.
Play: Nathan Eovaldi, limited Royals top-end stacks, limited Rangers bats, both teams are a mid-to-low priority at the plate.
Update Notes: Reyes gets a bit of a bump sliding up to the fifth spot in the lineup, this makes him a better correlation piece with the team’s top bats and groups all of the best home run hitters from one through five for Kansas City.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+149/3.78) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-163/4.82)
Lefty Jordan Montgomery will be on the mound for the hometown Cardinals tonight, facing a Diamondbacks team that has been good against left-handed pitching and sports several capable righties. Montgomery is good enough to overcome the challenge presented by Arizona’s lineup, he pitched to a 3.43 xFIP over 178.1 innings last year and a 3.93 mark the season before, with ERA numbers respectably close to those marks. The lefty has never been a major source of strikeouts, but he has been better in the category since coming to St. Louis at last year’s trade deadline, and he has upside against the Diamondbacks’ lineup. Montgomery struck out 21.8% of opposing hitters last year and he sits at 22.7% over 18.1 innings in three starts in 2023. The southpaw has a 3.67 xFIP and a 2.45 ERA in the sample and has yet to give up a home run despite allowing some premium contact. Montgomery is projected as a strong option on this slate in our pitching model, he costs a fair $9,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel and should be played on both sites. The Diamondbacks projected starting lineup includes a few interesting hitters, but their numbers bounce around the board overall. Ketel Marte has been slow to get started, he has a 90 WRC+ but his .203 ISO is telling for the quality with which he has struck the ball. Marte should be fine and he is cheap at $4,400/$2,500 at second base. Josh Rojas may hit later in the lineup against same-handed pitching, he is off to a strong start for run creation but is largely a replacement-level player for his career. Rojas hit nine home runs and stole 23 bases with a 108 WRC+ last year and he had a 102 WRC+ the year before, he is playable. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Christian Walker represent the team’s power core, with Evan Longoria projected to hit fifth against a lefty. Walker has two home runs but has struggled to a 42 WRC+ to start his season, he hit 36 homers last year with a 122 WRC+ and a .235 ISO though, he seems likely to figure things out as the sample grows to a fair level. Gurriel has also been off to start the year, slashing .250/.271/.411 with a 76 WRC+, but he also was above average for run creation for the past two years and should get things right in short order. The top four in the lineup, potentially plus Longoria’s veteran right-handed pop, are the playable stack for the Diamondbacks if inclined toward Snakes, but it is not a great-looking play. Corbin Carroll is the other interesting name in the lineup, assuming that the young left-handed outfielder plays against a lefty starter. Carroll is off to the team’s best start, he is slashing .274/.297/.516 with a .242 ISO and a 111 WRC+ with four home runs and six stolen bases. Nick Ahmed, Gabriel Moreno, and Jake McCarthy, or other options from the Arizona bench, offer limited appeal and diminishing quality in that order.
The Cardinals are facing Diamondbacks rookie hurler Drey Jameson, who is getting a few starts filling in as an injury replacement. Jameson broke camp with the big club and has pitched out of the bullpen to start the season. The highly-regarded righty has a 25% strikeout rate but a 10.4% walk rate in his one start and 12.1 innings total this season. Jameson’s start came in his last outing, he faced 14 Brewers over four innings, allowing no runs on three hits while striking out four, his previous outings were 2.1, 2.0, and 4.0 innings in reverse chronological order, so it remains to be seen if Jameson will be given enough leash to cover six innings and reach a quality start, and he is facing a very stiff challenge in the Cardinals lineup. The righty is talented and will likely be useful in spots this season, but at $7,100/$7,900 there just seem to be better value plays available on this slate. Jameson projects into the lower-third of pitching options when we allow him to reach five innings in our pitching model, this is not a great sign for his upside at price, going to Cardinals bats is probably the better idea between the two but the rookie’s quality has St. Louis’ excellent lineup looking somewhat average for their asking prices tonight as well. The Cardinals bats have been featured in this space numerous times, they are a column favorite overall and the team can be stacked from one through nine on most slates. Nothing is different about tonight’s projected starting lineup, though star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt got a night off last night, so anything can happen. Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson start off with left-handed quality, Donovan is slashing .270/.329/.413 with a 103 WRC+ to start his year while Burleson is at .277/.320/.532 with a .255 ISO and two home runs in his 51 plate appearances. Goldschmidt should be back in his typical three spot in the lineup, hitting ahead of fellow star Nolan Arenado and forming an always-playable duo. The pair costs $3,700 each on the blue site, they are too cheap as individuals and as a unit in a matchup against a rookie pitcher. Willson Contreras is a great catcher bat despite the slow start, Nolan Gorman has never heard the phrase slow start, he just hits for power whenever he is asked. Lars Nootbaar adds another premium left-handed bat to the Cardinals lineup. Nootbaar has made 18 plate appearances, he has a .300 ISO and a 181 WRC+ with one home run and one stolen base, and is entirely too cheap at $3,900/$3,300. Jordan Walker is at just an 83 WRC+ but he has two home runs and a stolen base to partly fulfill his prospect promise, and Tommy Edman is also below average for run creation to this point but typically makes for a strong wraparound play. Edman is slashing .255/.339/.327 with just a .073 ISO and an 86 WRC+ but he stole 32 bases and had a 108 WRC+ last year while adding 13 home runs, for the $4,000 asking price on DraftKings that is reasonable production, at the $2,600 salary that FanDuel wants it is excellent. The Cardinals lineup plays, as usual, from one through nine, though they are just an upper-middle-class stack on this slate.
Play: Jordan Montgomery, Cardinals bats
Update Notes: Arizona’s lineup is as expected. Nolan Arenado and Jordan Walker will get the day off for St. Louis, with Goldschmidt returning as expected. Contreras will hit fourth with Gorman-Nootbaar-Tyler O’Neill–Dylan Carlson and Edman bringing up the bottom of the lineup. O’Neill has major power and respectable speed for his cost, Carlson is a playable switch-hitter late in the lineup. A half-run bump leans mostly in St. Louis’ favor. UPDATE – Brendan Donovan has been scratched, the new Cardinals lineup goes Nootbaar-Goldschmidt-Burleson-Contreras-Gorman-O’Neill-Carlson-Taylor Motter-Edman. Motter is a minor piece in the end of the lineup, Nootbaar gains value for the bump to the leadoff spot, the flip of Goldschmidt and Burleson is interesting lineup jockeying.
Toronto Blue Jays (-103/4.53) @ Houston Astros (-105/4.56)
The excellent early season matchup between the Blue Jays and Astros continues with a significant reduction in pitching quality on both sides tonight. This should lead MLB DFS gamers to the outstanding bats in both lineups, with the visiting Blue Jays showing major potential for home run upside against Astros righty Jose Urquidy. Over 164.1 innings in 28 starts last year, Urquidy allowed a 4.26% home run rate on the back of a 40.8% hard-hit rate and a 9.4% barrel rate allowed. He pitched to a 4.32 xFIP with a 3.94 ERA and was reasonably good at limiting walks and sequencing, but he is lousy for power. Urquidy allowed a 4.02% home run rate the year before, pitching to a similar 4.38 xFIP with a 3.62 ERA. Urquidy would pick up quality if he could find more strikeouts, but he had a 19.7% mark last year, a 21.3% rate the year before and he sits at just 20% over his first 15 innings in 2023. The righty is targetable with bats, the Blue Jays have strong home run potential and may hit a couple out of the yard, but Urquidy is not a complete pushover. Outfielder George Springer is sporting a 14.17 mark in our home run model, giving him an excellent chance at a long ball and putting him second on the team. Springer has three home runs and three stolen bases this season, he hit 25 and stole 14 last year and had 22 home runs but just four steals returning from injury over 342 plate appearances in 2021. Springer is a star bat who is slightly overshadowed by his teammates, but he is every bit as talented as Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who hit immediately behind him in the lineup. Bichette has four home runs and a .213 ISO to start the year, he hit 24 home runs and stole 13 bases while creating runs 29% better than average in an excellent 2022 and is out to a great start with a 178 WRC+ this season. Guerrero has a 108 WRC+ but has struggled to find his early form, slashing just .250/.358/.357 with a .106 ISO and two home runs. There is no doubt that one of the best overall hitters in the game will round into form very soon, get in ahead of the field when he is at just $5,500/$3,800. With just one home run so far this season, Daulton Varsho also looks less expensive than he should be at $4,400/$3,200. The outfielder hit 27 home runs last year and had a .207 ISO before joining the Blue Jays, he is a strong buy in the cleanup role between Guerrero and star third baseman Matt Chapman, who is back below the $5,000 mark on DraftKings after cooling a bit following his scorching start. Chapman sits at .410/.471/.738 with a .328 ISO and has created runs 138% better than average for the season while hitting four home runs, so of course things will come down some, but he is an excellent option who has never lost his ability to make premium contact and drive the ball even when he has scuffled for quality. Alejandro Kirk is a potential power option in the catcher spot, he hit 14 home runs last year and comes cheap at $3,800/$2,700. Brandon Belt was featured here yesterday, the lefty is forgotten in this lineup so far but has the power-hitting talent to change that in a hurry, Belt has been an outstanding left-handed home run hitter in his career, and he can add sneaky value for $2,100/$2,200 but he is cheap because he has struggled mightily to start the year. Cavan Biggio and Kevin Kiermaier are less interesting mix-and-match pieces from late in the projected lineup.
There was a time when Chris Bassitt was a good option for MLB DFS pitching, it was not even that long ago. These days he is much more of a question mark with concerns about diminished stuff and velocity, and he comes in cheap at $8,200/$7,200, particularly on the blue site where he is still capable of hitting a quality start bonus. Bassitt pitched to a 22.4% strikeout rate over 181.2 innings in 30 starts last year, posting a respectable 3.72 xFIP with a 3.42 ERA while allowing a 2.55% home run rate and limiting hard hits to just 32.8%. He was similar with more strikeouts, at a 25% rate, in 157.1 innings the season before. Bassitt has reliably pitched into the sixth inning in a great number of his starts over the past few seasons, and he has completed the sixth in each of his last two starts, making his FanDuel price a bit puzzling in this one. The righty is not a great option, he is facing a fantastic Astros lineup that is likely to keep the ball in play and exploit his struggles, but Bassitt was notably better in his second and third starts of the season. His first outing was a disaster, the pitcher made it through just 3.1 innings allowing 10 hits, four home runs, and nine earned runs to the Cardinals while striking out no one. That is going to linger in his numbers for a while, but his second start saw Bassitt face 26 Angels hitters over six innings, striking out five while allowing just three hits and getting charged with two earned runs, his five walks were concerning in that start however. In his third outing, Bassitt struck out seven Tigers but walked three and gave up two runs on four hits. He faced 25 hitters and completed the sixth inning, earning his second quality start in as many games. Bassitt is not entirely off the board, but the play is very thin, he will need to wrangle his walks if he has any chance to succeed against the Astros tonight. The better play is surely Houston’s bats, but they may be popular against a pitcher that the public perceives to have taken a nosedive in quality. The projected Houston lineup has second baseman Mauricio Dubon in the leadoff role for just $3,100/$2,600, he has shortstop and outfield eligibility on the FanDuel slate. Dubon has had a strong start to his season, filling in regularly for injured Jose Altuve. The utility man has a .340/.357/.396 triple slash with a 112 WRC+ over his 56 plate appearances but he is a part-time player under normal circumstances. Dubon is a correlation piece that can be played or skipped in stacks, but not much more. Alex Bregman has two home runs but is slashing .197/.338/.303 with a .106 ISO and a 91 WRC+, he is not completely shot but this may not be the same hitter from several years ago. Still, Bregman managed 23 home runs last year and is still getting on base, he should turn things around quickly to at least reasonably recognizable quality, and he is currently cheap for his downturn. Yordan Alvarez has no such problems, he is one of the best in the business and he has a .273 ISO with a 157 WRC+ and four home runs in his first 67 plate appearances, and that was after missing most of Spring Training. Jose Abreu has not started as hot, he is slashing .239/.280/.282 with a .042 ISO and a 54 WRC+, there is significantly more upside for the first baseman, he has an elite hit tool and power, and he is currently priced at just $4,000/$2,700. Abreu hit 15 home runs last year and 30 the season before and he has a premium bat that helped create runs 37% better than average his last season in Chicago. Kyle Tucker is another amazing left-handed outfielder in this lineup, he is a five-tool player who has raked to start the season. Tucker has four home runs and four stolen bases in his 73 opportunities, posting a 183 WRC with a .268 ISO so far, he should be played aggressively. Jeremy Pena is a fairly priced shortstop with upside beyond the slow start he has had to this season, while Corey Julks can provide MLB DFS scoring in spurts. Julks is slashing .310/.302/.524 with a .214 ISO and two home runs after another productive night at the plate. Jake Meyers hit a very low-owned home run last night, but he is correctly a mix-and-match piece from late in the lineup, as is catcher Martin Maldonado.
Play: Blue Jays stacks, Astros stacks, and value-based Chris Bassit in very small doses if you’re feeling extremely adventurous on FanDuel
Update Notes: both lineups were confirmed as expected. The line has roughly leveled in Vegas.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-104/6.57) @ Colorado Rockies (-104/6.57)
The Coors Field game saw Pittsburgh go off for what will probably be their highest-scoring night of the entire season last night, although against righty Jose Urena they have a shot to match it tonight. The Pirates stack rolled to a laugher and nothing about Urena’s 6.70 xFIP and 12.7% strikeout rate, or his 9.09% home run rate and 47.5% hard-hit rate in 10 innings this season tells us the scoring will slow tonight. Of course, 10 innings is a wildly unfair sample, so we will account for 2022 and 2021 as well. Urena posted a 4.61 xFIP with a 14.6% strikeout rate over 97 innings and 17 starts last year, he was at a 4.87 xFIP and a 14.7% strikeout mark in 100.2 innings and 18 starts in 2021. Now that we are satisfied that this is a bad pitcher in a great park for hitting, we can look at what will no doubt be crushingly popular Pirates bats. The team comes in with mediocre talent levels, outside of star outfielder Bryan Reynolds, of course. Reynolds is slashing an excellent .324/.329/.603 with five home runs and a 137 WRC+ to start the year, he hits second behind Ke’Bryan Hayes, who has struggled to just a 61 WRC+ but has upside for the price in this situation. Hayes hit seven home runs and stole 20 bases last year, he costs $3,800/$2,900 leading off at Coors. Andrew McCutchen is having a throwback start to his year with three homers and three steals while slashing .302/.418/.528 with a 151 WRC+ and Carlos Santana has power on both sides of the plate in the heart of the lineup. Rookie Canaan Smith-Njigba costs just $2,500/$2,700 in a game that, remember because the sites clearly did not, takes place at Coors Field. The outfielder has no home runs and just one stolen base in his 31 plate appearances this year, but he has a terrific 15.4% barrel rate with a 46.2% hard-hit mark in the tiny sample, and came into the Show with a highly regarded contact profile. This is a capable young hitter who is way too cheap across the industry for this situation. Just having a pulse and a bat in your hands should get a player over the $3,000 mark at Coors. Rodolfo Castro has more cheap quality at $3,200/$2,700 while Jack Suwinski leads the team with a 10.64 in our home run model if he is in the later part of the lineup. Suwinski also comes cheap at just $2,700 on both sites. The bottom of the lineup is of mix-and-match caliber, but everyone is in play at Coors and there are cost and popularity discounts available, pending the final form.
The Rockies will be similarly well-matched against Vince Velasquez who does everything that Urena does on the mound, only slightly worse. Velasquez was at one time a better pitcher who had some talent for strikeouts, but that guy is gone and probably not returning. The righty has made three starts this season, covering 13.1 innings of 16.4% strikeout ball with a 6.26 xFIP and a 5.40 ERA. Velasquez allowed a 3.45% home run rate in 75.1 innings last year, yielding a 91.6 mph average exit velocity and a 43.5% hard-hit rate with a 13% barrel rate. That is simply too much premium contact to be viable in this ballpark, Velasquez is not in play, Rockies bats very much are. Jurickson Profar was popular on last night’s slate and will be so again today. The limited outfielder hit 15 home runs last year but is off to a slow start with just a 58 WRC+ over his first 59 plate appearances atop this lineup. Kris Bryant is warming up, he is now slashing .323/.380/.477 with a 117 WRC+ and two home runs, though his ISO is just at .154. Bryant is still a star hitter, he just missed most of last season with an injury, he should be very popular but also included in most Rockies stacks as their best hitter. Charlie Blackmon has power appeal against a weak righty, he has hit one home run this year and has provided mid-teens power output the past two seasons. C.J. Cron has a team-leading 12.38 in our home run model and lives above the magic number for power. Cron has blasted four home runs with a .246 ISO to start his 2023 campaign, but his WRC+ is sitting 12% below average over 60 plate appearances. Lefty Ryan McMahon and right-handed catcher Elias Diaz are quality bats from the back half of the Rockies lineup, Diaz has a great 133 WRC+ over 56 plate appearances with two home runs and a .196 ISO to start his year. Rookie Elehuris Montero is slashing .289/.333/.422 with one home run to start the year, he costs $3,300/$3,000 and adds value to the late part of the projected batting order, as do Yonathan Daza and Ezequiel Tovar in limited doses.
Play: bats, bats, bats.
Update Notes: This run total has gone up by a half-run to 13, putting it four runs higher than every game except for Angels @ Yankees, which sits 3.5 runs below at 9.5. This is an absurd gap in implied scoring and Vegas has an even split with 6.57 implied runs on either side. Bump to the already aggressively good bats, but they will be extremely popular. No McCutchen for the Pirates, Connor Joe slots into the three spot and makes for a good option. Joe costs $3,500/$3,400 and is slashing .297/395/.514 with a .216 ISO to start the season. Suwinski moves up to hitting fifth between Santana and Smith-Njigba, giving him a bump, the Pirates 1-6 plays nicely even without McCutchen’s bat. Bae-Tucupita Marcano-Hedges is a weak bottom third, but everything is in play at Coors Field.
Chicago Cubs (-178/4.63) @ Oakland Athletics (+163/3.46)
Cubs pitching was an excellent source of value on last night’s slate, with Hayden Wesneski delivering on our expectations at not nearly enough ownership and great pricing on both sites, which was not the case for Oakland starter Kyle Muller, who had another rough outing. The same results could occur this evening with lefty Ken Waldichuk taking the mound for the Athletics. The Chicago starter will not be a value play on the FanDuel slate today, but he is a very good one on DraftKings, Marcus Stroman checks in at ridiculously imbalanced salary points of $8,800 and $11,000 from site to site tonight. Between the two pitchers, Stroman is the playable option on both sites. He is unlikely to be popular at the outrageous ask on FanDuel, and he makes a firm value play against the inept Oakland lineup at his DraftKings price. Waldichuk has shown little to inspire faith at the Major League level after posting strong strikeout rates in the minors. He costs just $6,100/$6,700 and could be a dart throw for strikeout upside if you feel particularly masochistic and want to burn a few entries for fun tonight. Otherwise, the southpaw is mostly off the board and the Cubs bats look like a good spot for power upside again. Waldichuk has just a 15.1% strikeout rate in his 15 innings this year and he was at a 22.6% mark over 34.2 innings last year. The Cubs have plenty of power and an interesting mix for MLB DFS, Nico Hoerner leads off with a good amount of speed and some run-creation ability, he has nine stolen bases already this year in just 71 plate appearances and he is slashing .338/.394/.385, making him a terrific correlation piece. Dansby Swanson has no home runs but he is slashing .368/.438/.421 and has created runs 39% better than average this year while making his still typically excellent contact. Swanson hit 25 home runs and stole 18 bases last year and was a 27/9 man the season before, he is a great shortstop on most slates. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are solid power bats with very good contact profiles in the heart of the Cubs lineup. Happ has two home runs and a 158 WRC+ with a .214 ISO to start the season; Suzuki missed time already but has a home run and a 103 WRC+ in his 19 plate appearances. Trey Mancini and Patrick Wisdom are significant right-handed power bats in the lineup, Wisdom went deep twice last night and has a team-leading 8.75 in our home run model tonight. Mancini has been slow to start but is long-since proven and still has power to give. Cody Bellinger is off to a strong start, as featured yesterday, which is great to see for the former MVP. Bellinger was on the board last night and is now at .310/.369/.517 with a .207 ISO and a 135 WRC+ with three home runs to start his season. Getting a premium Bellinger cheap would be a savvy move that greatly accelerates the Chicago reconstruction project, he is one to watch all year and he is very much in play despite the lefty-lefty starting matchup. Yan Gomes and Luis Torrens are both in the projected starting lineup as playable cheap catchers, one or the other should sit but both would be usable pieces late in the batting order.
Stroman is off to an undeniably good start, he has a 1.00 ERA and a 3.04 xFIP over his first 18 innings and three starts, most surprisingly pitching to a 28.2% strikeout rate so far. That number is likely to come back to Earth, Stroman had a 20.9% rate last year in 138.2 innings and a 21.6% mark in 179 the year before. The righty has always been a better real-life starter than a fantasy option, but he could absolutely post a strong score against the inept Athletics lineup. Stroman will be popular for his cheap DraftKings price, he is one of the top projected pitchers on the entire slate, his FanDuel price is a mystery, the spot is fantastic but it is difficult imagining much of the field paying up to that price on an 11-game slate, making him a viable pay-up to be different option. The Oakland lineup is not one on which to focus, Stroman is good at limiting scoring and power if nothing else, and the Athletics have little to offer. Those who want to play A’s bats should focus on the top of the lineup, including Esteury Ruiz, Ryan Noda, Brent Rooker, and Ramon Laureano, the latter two of which have most of the power in the Oakland lineup when Seth Brown is out. Tony Kemp and Aledmys Diaz are usable veteran parts and Shea Langeliers has minor power appeal at catcher, but this is a bad team in a bad matchup.
Play: Cubs bats, Marcus Stroman
Update Notes: The Oakland lineup has Aledmys Diaz hitting third, with Ruiz and Noda ahead of him and Rooker in the cleanup spot. Jace Peterson is hitting fifth, with Kemp, catcher Carlos Perez, Capel, and Kevin Smith at the bottom of the lineup. Langeliers is out of the lineup tonight. This is not a good version of what is always a bad lineup.
Milwaukee Brewers (+139/3.86) @ Seattle Mariners (-151/4.73)
One of these things is not like the other in the matchup between the Brewers and Mariners tonight. Milwaukee’s banged-up pitching staff took another potential blow last night and it will be interesting to see what comes up next time the Brewers need to dip into the talent pool, given that tonight’s starter Colin Rea was what came back last time. Rea is a 32-year-old journeyman who has played professionally on multiple continents, he offers very little other than upside to Mariners bats. At the same time, Seattle starter Logan Gilbert looks like a high-quality play against Milwaukee tonight for what is a fair price on both sites. Gilbert had a 22.7% strikeout rate over 185.2 sharp innings with a 3.78 xFIP last season, he is off to a good start in 16.2 innings and three starts this year, posting a 29.9% strikeout rate with a 2.98 xFIP. The righty has faced the excellent Guardians lineup twice already, making his strikeout rate significant as that team is very difficult to sit down with strikeouts. Gilbert had seven in his first outing and six in his second, with another seven coming in his third start which was on the road against the Cubs. The righty is very good and could be taking another step in his development, if he does this will be one to watch for MLB DFS opportunities this season. Gilbert may slip under the radar tonight, he is worth playing against a Milwaukee lineup that is striking out at a 24.3% rate as a unit to start the season. Brewers bats can be deployed if desired, they are a talented team with quality pieces, but numbers are favoring the starter in this one, placing the Brewers in the bottom third of available stacks. Christian Yelich and Willy Adames are two obvious targets at the top of the lineup, they both come cheap for their talents at $4,500/$3,100 and $4,800/$3,500, and Rowdy Tellez has a team-leading 9.43 in our home run model. Tellez has hit five homer runs on the season with a .296 ISO, he is the biggest individual threat to Gilbert in this lineup. William Contreras is a strong catcher play in most matchups, he can be used in stacks or individually. Garrett Mitchell and Brian Anderson have still not been priced up for their strong starts, they each have three home runs and ISOs well over .200. The bottom of the lineup falls off around Brice Turang, Mike Brosseau, and Joey Wiemer, who are all mix and match pieces.
With Rea on the mound, the Mariners are the top team in today’s power index. Rea threw 5.2 innings against a quality Padres team, striking out six and allowing a solo home run and just two hits while walking one. Rea was surprisingly good in that start, but the numbers simply do not support the notion of sustained success for the 32-year-old. The Mariners are flashing major power upside in this one, with the entire top six above the 10-mark in our home run model. Julio Rodriguez has three home runs on the season with a .213 ISO and a 46.3% hard-hit rate. The star outfielder hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year, he is pulling in a team-leading 16.95 in the home run model to lead the way at $6,200/$4,000. Ty France costs $5,100/$3,300 at first base, he has a home run with a .162 ISO and a 164 WRC+ to start the season while slashing .324/.418/.485. France is an underrated player, he has an excellent hit tool and a nose for getting on base as well as a strong dose of power. France hit 20 home runs while creating runs 27% better than average and slashing .276/.340/.437 last year, he is a good play for his individual and correlated scoring potential. Eugenio Suarez is 12th in baseball with 79 home runs since the start of the 2020 season, he hit 31 long balls in 2021 and another 31 last year, and has two on the board so far this season. Suarez’s triple-slash is sporting an uncharacteristically high batting average to this point and his .130 ISO looks like a total reversal of his talent reality, but it is definitely a statistical blip, Suarez is a reliable power bat and should be played like it. Cal Raleigh went deep last night and has a 14.16 in our home run model in tonight’s game. The catcher hit 27 home runs last year and has two with a .189 ISO this season, he costs just $4,300/$2,900, making him an asset for MLB DFS gamers in Mariners stacks both where catchers are needed and where they are not required. Teoscar Hernandez has hit three home runs so far this season, he had 25 last year and 32 the year before, he is a sturdy power hitter who is correctly priced at $5,400 on DraftKings but comes in at just $2,900 on FanDuel, the Mariners are too cheap on the blue site. Jarred Kelenic is the last player in the lineup above the “magic number” in our home run model, he sports an 11.58 and has four home runs already this season while slashing .333/.393/.667 with a 198 WRC+. As was featured yesterday, Kelenic seems to have finally arrived in full, he should be played enthusiastically until he proves that statement wrong. The bottom of the projected lineup trails off with Tommy LaStella, Koten Wong, and J.P. Crawford. Wong is the most reliable option, he had 15 home runs last year and 14 the year before and can steal bases and create runs. La Stella and Crawford are less capable bats but either could get there in a “that’s baseball” sense.
Play: Mariners bats aggressively, Logan Gilbert
Update Notes: Another game with a half-run bump since the earlier line has the Mariners looking even stronger.
Atlanta Braves (-134/4.05) @ San Diego Padres (+124/3.53)
A high-quality pitching matchup between Blake Snell and Spencer Strider is the focus in a late game from San Diego that sees the Braves in town to battle the Padres. The elite Atlanta power bats are being held somewhat in check, landing just in the middle of today’s home run model. Snell made 24 starts last year, pitching 128 innings and striking out an excellent 32% of opposing hitters while allowing just a 2.06% home run rate. He walked too many, which is always part of his game, at 9.5% last year and 12.5% the year before, but his strikeout acumen and ability to limit home runs have always kept him safe from monster innings. Snell has made three start this season, pitching to a 24.2% strikeout rate with a 15.2% walk rate this year, posting an ugly 2.15 WHIP and a 6.92 ERA with a 4.76 xFIP. He struck out nine in just 4.1 innings against the Rockies in his season debut but allowed three runs and was pulled early. Snell covered just 3.2 innings in his second start, striking out two and giving up four earned runs on six hits and four walks with a home run to these Braves in Atlanta then he allowed two home runs while walking five and striking out five Mets in his third start of the year. The lefty is a somewhat unreliable option with major potential, the Braves could tattoo him for power, but he could also easily find a big strikeout total against this lineup, or both things could happen. Snell is priced down at just $8,400 on DraftKings and he is downright cheap at $7,400 on FanDuel, which is a total misprice even with his struggles early in the season and his general inability to pitch deep into ballgames. Snell can make value on strikeouts alone if he pitches five clean innings. The Braves lineup is in play as well, given the power that Snell has yielded this year and the hard-hit rates that he has allowed throughout his career in conjunction with his hefty walk rates. Ronald Acuna Jr. walks at an 11% rate with a 14.6% strikeout rate this season, he has three home runs and seven stolen bases with a 180 WRC+ and is worth every penny of his high salaries regardless of the pitcher. Matt Olson has major power upside, even against fellow lefties, as featured here yesterday Olson has hit 33% of his career home runs against same-handed pitching in the same proportion of career plate appearances. Austin Riley homered last night and has four on the season with a .222 ISO, he hit 38 last year and 33 the season before, he is one of the game’s top power bats at third base. Catcher Sean Murphy and second baseman Ozzie Albies are in the heart of the lineup providing plenty of power and run creation – in Albies sense the run creation mark this year is more theoretical and memory-based – both are in play when stacking Braves bats against Snell. Vaughn Grissom remains too cheap at the bottom of the lineup, and Marcell Ozuna has late power appeal and nothing else, while Kevin Pillar and Eli White are just holding spots for absent teammates. The quality mostly runs from one through six for this team, but the Braves are not the elite stack tonight, they are just an upper-middle-class option.
The Padres look even lower-end. The lineup is top-heavy every day, but with Strider on the mound they look severely limited and they rank last in out Power Index once again. Strider has a good chance for similar results today to what Max Fried put up last night, but with far more upside for strikeouts. The righty is very difficult to make contact with, as evidenced by his absurd 38.3% strikeout rate over 131.2 innings last year that went along with a 2.30 xFIP and a 0.99 WHIP with a 1.33% home run rate. Strider yielded just 36% hard hits and a 6.1% barrel rate last year, numbers that are eerily similar to the 35.5% and 6.5% he has allowed through three starts and 16 innings this season. The right-handed strikeout artist has actually bumped his rate from the excellent mark last year to a 40.9% in the small sample, but he has also walked 12.1% with a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.03 xFIP so far. While Strider has put a few additional runners on via the free pass, it has yet to cost him significantly and he has kept power in check to the same degree, allowing just a 1.52% home run rate. The Padres have an excellent top half, featuring Trent Grisham, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto, all of whom are playable in small doses as a secondary stack or individually, but the upside is not great against this starter and undercutting the field’s ownership is recommended across the board with Padres bats. Nelson Cruz and Jake Cronenworth add quality to the bottom of the lineup, but the skillset begins to taper off with that pair before dropping off the table with the likes of Matt Carpenter and Jose Azocar.
Play: Spencer Strider, Blake Snell value, some shares of Braves bats
Update Notes: The Braves lineup was confirmed in its expected form. The Padres lineup is without Nelson Cruz. Carpenter moves up to fifth, with Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim (a capable middle infield option in the mid-range), Odor, and catcher Brett Sullivan hitting ninth. Sullivan is in at the minimum on both sites in what will be his Major League debut. He does not have much prospect pedigree, but his hit tool seems to have some polish. Sullivan hit regularly above .270 with a mid-to-low-teens strikeout rate at almost every stop in the minors, but only middling power.
New York Mets (+143/3.83) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-155/4.76)
The final game on tap tonight sees the Mets and Dodgers squaring off with another of the slate’s best pitchers in action. Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw has made three starts and thrown 18 innings this season. He has a 23.3% strikeout rate and a 5.5% walk rate with just a 3.59 xFIP and a 3.50 ERA in the small sample so far, and he was sharp when on the mound last year pitching to a 27.8% strikeout rate over 126.1 innings. Kershaw had a 2.83 xFIP and a 2.28 ERA in the half-season last year and a 2.87 xFIP with a 29.5% strikeout rate the year before. The lefty is not quite the pitcher he once was, but he is still a strong option at $10,100/$10,000 across the industry, even against a tough Mets lineup. The lefty has completed six innings in each of his three starts this year, striking out nine, four, and four, the quality start potential adds to the appeal on FanDuel, but the Mets are a tougher challenge than the Diamondbacks or Giants, the two teams Kershaw faced to open the year. Mets bats are only moderately in play, it is not necessary to attack Kershaw with contrarian hitters on such a full slate, there are plenty of other options for more likely hitting. Those inclined to roster Mets bats can focus on the obvious stars in Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, who have combined for 12 home runs (four and eight respectively) on the young season. Lindor has a .295 ISO and a 140 WRC+, Alonso is at .385 and 182. Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo hit ahead of the power-packed pair, they are both in play in a limited sense with the righty Marte looking like the slightly better option. Marte has mid-range power and plenty of speed, he has stolen seven bases to start the season. Mark Canha, Tommy Pham, and Eduardo Escobar are playable for random home run upside at low odds, while lefty Jeff McNeil will either sit out or put the ball in play four times tonight. McNeil is limited at the plate in a power sense, but he is difficult to strike out and keeps things moving on the field. Tomas Nido is a defense-only catcher.
The Dodgers lineup is more in play tonight. They draw Tylor Megill, a young right-handed starter with a bit of appeal if he landed at a different price tag. Megill costs $9,200/$8,400 from site to site, he struck out 25.5% last year with a 3.35 xFIP and a 5.13 ERA over 47.1 innings and he had a 26.1% rate in 89.2 innings the year before. The righty is unlikely to hit those levels against this lineup though, and he has had a rough start to the year with just a 20% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate over three starts and 16 innings. For the money, there are probably better options, but a few darts are not entirely out of the question. The more likely scenario is that a lineup including Mookie Betts who is slashing .266/.390/.453 and a 132 WRC+ and Freddie Freeman who is at .328/.416/.522 with a 155, comes through in a big way for Los Angeles tonight. The duo of stars are followed by a player who is outperforming them both in the early part of the season in the form of Max Muncy, who has hit seven home runs with a .368 ISO and a 147 WRC+ so far this year. Muncy has an 11.79 in the home run model, trailing only Betts at 13.09. J.D. Martinez is slashing .231/.278/.446 with an 88 WRC+ but a .215 ISO that is encouraging for upcoming run creation potential. James Outman has three home runs in just 58 plate appearances to start his season. Outman hit one in 16 opportunities in a cup of coffee last year and is getting a full shot in the lineup this season. He is slashing .277/.414/.617 with two stolen bases and a 171 WRC+ to go with his .340 ISO in early returns. Outman remains cheap at $4,000/$3,200 if this continues. Miguel Vargas, Jason Heyward, Miguel Rojas, and Austin Barnes round out the projected Dodgers lineup, they are all mix-and-match parts in this game.
Play: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers bats
Update Notes:
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