Tuesday brings two things we don’t like hearing as MLB DFS gamers, “It’s another Coors slate” and “It’s Tax Day.” Fortunately, our spirits are bolstered by the fact that this is also a day that looks loaded with offense from sources outside of the high-scoring Colorado ballpark, with several of our favorite targets taking the hill for their teams. The Mariners, Blue Jays, and Orioles all look like excellent choices off the top. All three teams are filled with star-quality power bats and all three are facing highly targetable starters in favorable situations. The Yankees and Dodgers and the Coors Field game will always be popular, but they are grading out as nice options for it while stout Atlanta finally drops a few spots based on a matchup in San Diego against lefty Blake Snell. There are very strong spots for power and a few interesting pitchers who can be rostered, but overall this looks like a day to focus on winning with bats.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/18/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The Padres are notably on the bottom of the board once again. The team took up residence in the cellar of the Power Index in yesterday’s matchup with Max Fried, and they remain there facing Spencer Strider in today’s game. Fried shut down the Padres over five innings before handing off to the bullpen who completed the task, Strider has a good chance for similar results today. The righty is very difficult to make contact with, as evidenced by his absurd 38.3% strikeout rate over 131.2 innings last year that went along with a 2.30 xFIP and a 0.99 WHIP with a 1.33% home run rate. Strider yielded just 36% hard hits and a 6.1% barrel rate last year, numbers that are eerily similar to the 35.5% and 6.5% he has allowed through three starts and 16 innings this season. The right-handed strikeout artist has actually bumped his rate from the excellent mark last year to a 40.9% in the small sample, but he has also walked 12.1% with a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.03 xFIP so far. While Strider has put a few additional runners on via the free pass, it has yet to cost him significantly and he has kept power in check to the same degree, allowing just a 1.52% home run rate. The Padres have an excellent top half, featuring Trent Grisham, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto, all of whom are playable in small doses as a secondary stack or individually, but the upside is not great against this starter and undercutting the field’s ownership is recommended across the board with Padres bats. Nelson Cruz and Jake Cronenworth add quality to the bottom of the lineup, but the skillset begins to taper off with that pair before dropping off the table with the likes of Matt Carpenter and Jose Azocar.
The Mariners lineup lands at the top of the board on this slate in a matchup against Colin Rea, a multi-national journeyman who has made one start this season as a fill-in for the hobbled Brewers rotation. Rea threw 5.2 innings against a quality Padres team, striking out six and allowing a solo home run and just two hits while walking one. Rea was surprisingly good in that start, but the numbers simply do not support the notion of sustained success for the 32-year-old. The Mariners are flashing major power upside in this one, with the entire top six above the 10-mark in our home run model. Julio Rodriguez has three home runs on the season with a .213 ISO and a 46.3% hard-hit rate. The star outfielder hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year, he is pulling in a team-leading 16.95 in the home run model to lead the way at $6,200/$4,000. Ty France costs $5,100/$3,300 at first base, he has a home run with a .162 ISO and a 164 WRC+ to start the season while slashing .324/.418/.485. France is an underrated player, he has an excellent hit tool and a nose for getting on base as well as a strong dose of power. France hit 20 home runs while creating runs 27% better than average and slashing .276/.340/.437 last year, he is a good play for his individual and correlated scoring potential. Eugenio Suarez is 12th in baseball with 79 home runs since the start of the 2020 season, he hit 31 long balls in 2021 and another 31 last year, and has two on the board so far this season. Suarez’s triple-slash is sporting an uncharacteristically high batting average to this point and his .130 ISO looks like a total reversal of his talent reality, but it is definitely a statistical blip, Suarez is a reliable power bat and should be played like it. Cal Raleigh went deep last night and has a 14.16 in our home run model in tonight’s game. The catcher hit 27 home runs last year and has two with a .189 ISO this season, he costs just $4,300/$2,900, making him an asset for MLB DFS gamers in Mariners stacks both where catchers are needed and where they are not required. Teoscar Hernandez has hit three home runs so far this season, he had 25 last year and 32 the year before, he is a sturdy power hitter who is correctly priced at $5,400 on DraftKings but comes in at just $2,900 on FanDuel, the Mariners are too cheap on the blue site. Jarred Kelenic is the last player in the lineup above the “magic number” in our home run model, he sports an 11.58 and has four home runs already this season while slashing .333/.393/.667 with a 198 WRC+. As was featured yesterday, Kelenic seems to have finally arrived in full, he should be played enthusiastically until he proves that statement wrong. The bottom of the projected lineup trails off with Tommy LaStella, Koten Wong, and J.P. Crawford. Wong is the most reliable option, he had 15 home runs last year and 14 the year before and can steal bases and create runs. La Stella and Crawford are less capable bats but either could get there in a “that’s baseball” sense.
