The Sunday afternoon MLB DFS main slates start at 1:10 ET with 10 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If yesterday was light on pitching options, it is because most teams were hitting the top of their rotation today, the board is loaded with premium pitching potential, lowering the overall power across the slate. A few teams still have highly targetable pitchers going, and some big numbers are being drawn against good pitchers as well, including the Yankees against Pablo Lopez and the White Sox against young starter Grayson Rodriguez, which land in the top two spots on the board. While those two spots are flashing for home run potential, the next two games may make for better overall stacking options, with the Braves facing Zack Greinke and the Guardians taking on Patrick Corbin.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/16/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The projected starting lineup for the Braves has been featured in this space several times already, the team has an unfair amount of power up and down the lineup. While they do not land in the top two spots in the power index, the matchup is more targetable for stacking purposes overall, given a matchup against Zack Greinke, who if nothing else has done well for himself in pitching five years beyond his career expiration date. Greinke simply has not been the same pitcher for several seasons now. Last year he made 26 starts and pitched to a clunky 4.54 xFIP with a 3.68 covering it up. He had an anemic 12.5% strikeout rate over 137 innings over which he posted a 1.34 WHIP despite a very good 4.6% walk rate. Greinke allowed a 39.6% hard-hit rate and a 2.39% home run rate last season, the year before he gave up just a 35.4% hard-hit mark but allowed a 4.30% home run rate, with average launch angles allowed in the low teens, Greinke lets far too many well-struck balls take flight on home run trajectories to expect him to pitch cleanly through a lineup like Atlanta’s. The team should also be able to sequence and use their hit tools and speed against this pitcher, Atlanta hitters should circle the bases all day. At .365/.452/.556 with a .190 ISO, three home runs, and six stolen bases over his 73 plate appearances, it seems safe to assume that superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is feeling good to start the season. Acuna is a monster power hitter, in addition to his other four tools, he is an excellent option on any slate but he is, naturally, very expensive for his talent. It is easy to build quality stacks of Braves hitters without Acuna, but that should never be the goal. Matt Olson has already hit five home runs this season and he is tracking as the team-leading option with an 11.27 in our home run model. Olson hit 34 long balls last year and 39 the season before, he is a top-notch option at first base on any slate. In his 71 plate appearances this season, Olson has a ridiculous 25.7% barrel rate and a 54.3% hard-hit rate, he has a very strong chance of driving one today. Austin Riley has not had a good contact profile over his first 68 plate appearances of 2023, he has just a five percent barrel rate and a 35% hard-hit rate, yet he is slashing .316/.412/.509 with three home runs and a .193 ISO to this point. The Atlanta third baseman is one of the game’s best at his position, Riley hit 38 home runs last season and 33 the year before while posting a very healthy triple slash, he should be a fixture in Braves stacks. If catcher Sean Murphy is in the lineup he should be a candidate for a significant number of shares as well, both where his position is required and where it is not. Murphy has three home runs and a massive .410 ISO in his 52 plate appearances this year, he hit 18 home runs and had a 122 WRC+ last season and is off to a good start chasing the monster year everyone expected from him on arrival in Atlanta. If Murphy sits for a rest day, he will be spelled by Chadwick Tromp, who is notably not Travis d’Arnaud, who is dealing with an injury. Tromp would be a significant downgrade in a way that d’Arnaud is not. Eddie Rosario has one home run and a .150 ISO to go with his 65 WRC+. Rosario had a down year in 2022 and was only OK in 2021, he is still a capable hitter and he is cheap on both sites, which is the primary attribute keeping him in play for MLB DFS. Hitting in the middle of this lineup at $2,700/$2,200 makes anyone at least semi-relevant on a slate-to-slate basis. Ozzie Albies has scuffled to a .246/.266/.344 triple-slash with a .098 ISO and two home runs this year. Albies missed a portion of last year, he made just 269 plate appearances and hit eight home runs with three steals, but he was his typically excellent self in 2021 in 686 plate appearances. That season, Albies hit 30 home runs and stole 20 bases, that version of the player still exists and will show up this season, getting in when he is priced at $4,300/$2,800 is a good idea. Vaughn Grissom is a prized rookie and he is finally available on FanDuel, he is cheap across the industry at $3,200/$2,800 and he offers eligibility at both middle infield spots on the blue site. Marcell Ozuna has two home runs this year and that’s about it. Ozuna is slashing .075/.196/.225 with a 14 WRC+, but his $2,900/$2,500 would be a good price for a player with a 14.8% barrel rate and a 48.1% hard-hit rate, if those numbers came in more batted ball events. Ozuna was OK last year, hitting 23 home runs but creating runs 12% worse than average, he is playable but not great. Sam Hilliard is a lefty at the bottom of the lineup at a very low price. Hilliard has gotten off to a good start filling in for Atlanta, he has been mentioned as a sneaky play a few times in recent games and he has delivered a .348/.464/.609 with a home run, a .261 ISO, and a 184 WRC+ over a meaningless 28 plate appearance sample. The Braves are in a strong spot for home run upside in this one, but they also make for a sharp stack on run creation and available contact, Atlanta should be a big part of MLB DFS plans yet again.
Facing a team like the Guardians, the amount of contact available in a Patrick Corbin start is simply too high. Even if they do not go deep, the Guardians should be on base, running, and creating runs all afternoon in this matchup, making them a strong candidate for MLB DFS stacking shares, much like the Braves. Cleveland’s projected starting lineup has not exactly been a launching pad in the early part of the season, there is no hitter with more than one home run to this point in the season who is projected to start today, and three of the Guardians are yet to hit one out. Still, this team packs a punch and is always interesting for MLB DFS point scoring. Corbin has been a target for stacking and for home run upside for several seasons now. The lefty has made three starts this season, pitching 14 innings with a 4.87 xFIP and a 7.71 ERA. Corbin has a hilarious 2.14 WHIP and a 4.23% home run rate in the small 14-inning sample. He has allowed a 10.7% barrel rate and a 53.6% hard-hit mark. The contact profile has been similar for the past few seasons, Corbin allowed a 44.6% hard-hit rate and a 3.79% home run mark last year and he was at 40.7% hard hit and a 4.93% home run rate in 2021. Both of the past two seasons were in full samples of 31 starts and over 150 innings each, Corbin is demonstrably bad. So far this season, his strikeout rate has also dipped from his already lousy 18-19% range over the past two seasons to an atrocious 12.7%. The veteran southpaw is in trouble against a team that does not strike out and constantly puts the ball in play, even if they do not hit a bushel of home runs. Steven Kwan is among the best leadoff hitters in baseball, which we have said three or four times across the site in recent days. Kwan is slashing just .246/.351/.311 to start the season, but he was excellent with a .298/.373/.400 and a 124 WRC+ last season in 638 plate appearances, hitting six home runs and stealing 19 bases. Kwan is an on-base machine who is incredibly tough to strike out. So far this season he has just a 9.5% strikeout rate, he was at 9.4% for the full season last year. Kwan will be on base and is likely to help create runs in this contest, he is a correlation play. Amed Rosario has power and speed and he slots into the outfield on FanDuel in addition to the shortstop eligibility he has on both sites. Rosario has one home run and three stolen bases this year but is creating runs at a pace 35% worse than average for the young season. Rosario had a 103 WRC+ last season and he hit 11 home runs with 18 stolen bases, making him a strong MLB DFS contributor for just $4,500/$2,500. Jose Ramirez got on the board for long balls for 2023 last night, he has a team-leading 12.07 in our home run model today and looks like a good bet for another one this afternoon. Ramirez is slashing .310/.423/.500 with a 144 WRC+ so far this year, he hit 29 home runs last season and 36 the year before, he is always in play at the hot corner. Josh Bell hits from both sides of the plate and has power in his bat, which we know from the 27 home runs he blasted in 2021. Last season that total dropped to just 17 in nearly 100 more plate appearances, and so far Bell has just one home run and a .130 ISO in 65 plate appearances this season, but he is an effective hitter in general and he is cheap in the heart of the Guardians stack. Bell is a good play if he is in or near the cleanup spot for just $3,600/$2,300, his FanDuel price remains way too low. Outfielder Oscar Gonzalez is in the projected starting lineup. Gonzales has made 36 plate appearances this season with no home runs and a .059 ISO, but the young outfielder hit 11 long balls in 382 opportunities last year while slashing .296/.327/.461 with a 122 WRC+. Infielder Andres Gimenez is a $4,700 second baseman on DraftKings and slots into either middle infield spot for $3,500 on the FanDuel slate. Gimenez hit 17 home runs and stole 20 bases in 2021, he is an exemplification of the team’s approach to baseball with mid-range speed and power and a great nose for getting on base. Gimenez is slashing .305/.379/.441 with a 127 WRC+ and leading the Guardians with a whopping 17 runs scored already this season. Gabriel Arias is another infielder in the projected starting lineup, but the better option from the bottom of the batting order is masher of the first-degree, Mike Zunino. The catcher has one home run this season and struggled through a short season last year, but MLB DFS gamers should remember the massive power display from 2021 when rostering Zunino. Myles Straw is not a highly playable piece outside of seeking on-base and speed-based correlated scoring from the nine spot. If Josh Naylor plays he is another home run candidate in the middle of the lineup.
It is worth noting that the Braves and Guardians stack well together positionally if you can find trustworthy pitching to go with them.
