Thursday’s Main Slate Power Index is haunted by the ghost of successful Spencer Turnbull outings of the past. The pitcher’s previous ability to keep the ball in the yard has been noted for each of his opponents in this space this season, as it has a wonky impact on our home run model’s data. The lousy righty’s lone talent has been keeping the ball from going over the fence, teams just score on him in other ways. Turnbull has never had a HR/9 mark over the 0.85 he posted in his largest sample in 148.1 innings in 2019. He threw 106.2 combined innings in 2020 and 2021, posting a 0.32 and 0.36 HR/9 mark (which was a 1.0% home run rate in 2021) then did not pitch in 2022. Gamers should absolutely not avoid the Blue Jays because of how this data translates to their power projection, their offense is excellent and they should be able to find runs even if they do not hit home runs, which they are also easily capable of doing. The rest of the board remains largely normal, a return to Yankee Stadium benefits the numbers for the Bronx Bombers, as does the matchup for the Cardinals.

Main Slate Power Index – 4/13/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates

The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.

The Cardinals return to the top of the Power Index today in a matchup against the highly targetable Vince Velasquez, who was featured as a pitcher to attack in this space in his first outing. He gave up two home runs to the Reds in a 4.2-inning performance that saw him strike out just three. In his second outing of the season, Velasquez lasted just 2.2 innings, giving up five runs on six hits and four walks while striking out just one White Sox hitter. This is a situation in which the Cardinals should be a fantastic option for MLB DFS scoring via multiple mechanisms. The board is showing them as an excellent option for home run upside, but the team is very good at sequencing, getting on base, and using their speed, Velasquez will not be long for this outing, and Cardinals bats should be a major part of the puzzle tonight. The team is rarely far from a paragraph filled with glowing praise in this space, the Cardinals are simply one of the game’s best overall lineups. From top to bottom there is a strong mix of power, speed, and hit/on-base acumen. The projected lineup begins in the left-handed configuration facing the right-handed Velasquez, with Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson up top. Donovan hit just five home runs with a .097 ISO in 2022, but he has two on the board already this season with a .143 ISO. Donovan is typically more of a correlation piece, but that part of his game has been slow out of the gate, he sits at a 72 WRC+ on the young season. Burleson is slashing .300/.364/.567 with a home run and a .267 ISO in his 34 plate appearances this year. The outfielder hit just one home run over his 53 plate appearances in a cup of coffee last year, but he had a terrific contact profile in that sample. Burleson had a 10.3% barrel rate and a 48.7% hard-hit percentage in that small sample, so far this season he has a 53.8% hard-hit mark but is yet to barrel a ball, this is a player whose power potential warrants monitoring as the weather warms. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado should not need much setup, Goldschmidt has a 55.6% hard-hit rate and an 11.1% barrel rate over his first 55 plate appearances, and Arenado is at a 42.9% and 7.1% so far but will come around for better contact in a realistic sample. Goldschmidt has a home run and is slashing .364/.491/.523 with a .159 ISO and Arenado is at .327/.382/.490 with a .163 ISO. The duo has been spectacular for power and run creation over time, there is no arguing with the sample for these two hitters, if they can be afforded they should be in Cardinals stacks. Catcher Willson Contreras hit 22 home runs last year and 21 the season before, he is one of the game’s best backstops at the plate and he costs just $4,400/$2,400. Nolan Gorman was largely a forgotten man in re-draft season-long fantasy leagues this season and he has already begun to make gamers pay for their mistake. The mashing second baseman leads the Cardinals with four home runs this season, and he is slashing .313/.436/.750 with a hilarious .438 ISO. Gorman has created runs 103% better than average this season, he was a highly regarded prospect who made his ascent to the Majors last season and responded with 14 home runs in 313 plate appearances with a 14.4% barrel rate. Gorman is a very good bat at second base for $3,800/$3,300 across the MLB DFS industry. Another very good power bat in this lineup is Tyler O’Neill, who slots in at $4,500/$2,400, the discount on Contreras and O’Neill on the FanDuel slate is noteworthy. O’Neill was hurt for much of last season, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases in 537 plate appearances in 2021 and is slashing .282/.317/.436 with two homers and a stolen base to start 2023. Adding this year’s hot prospect, Jordan Walker, who cannot stop hitting, to this Cardinals lineup is downright unfair. Walker is slashing .319/.360/.489 with two home runs and a steal over his first 50 plate appearances. Tommy Edman is one of baseball’s better wraparound plays from the bottom of the batting order, he has moderate pop of his own and is a strong correlation play.

With apologies to the two teams playing in Yankee Stadium tonight, the next-best spot for home run upside looks like the Padres, who will be at home to face Brewers’  right-handed opener Bryse Wilson in the late game. Wilson opened 20 games and pitched 115.2 innings last season in his hybrid role, posting a 15.5% strikeout rate while allowing a massive 43.4% hard-hit rate with a 7.7% barrel mark and a 90.8-mph average exit velocity, leading to a 3.93% home run rate against. Wilson was worse for power over his 16 starts in 2021, he gave up a 42.3% hard-hit mark with a 9.9% barrel rate and an 89mph average exit velocity, which resulted in a 4.66% home run rate. He struck out just 14.3% of hitters that season while pitching to a 5.10 xFIP, last year’s xFIP was at least somewhat improved at 4.54, but this is not what anyone would think of as a good pitcher. Wilson can be targeted for power and run-creation purposes with Padres bats tonight. Wilson will get chased early, even in a good outing he should only be expected to pitch two or three innings, but the Padres have the quality to keep the ball rolling against whatever comes out of the Brewers’ quality bullpen. Left-handed Trent Grisham is projected to lead off for San Diego. Grisham hit 17 home runs but slashed just .184/.284/.341 last year, making him an odd choice for the leadoff role in general. The outfielder comes cheap at $3,800 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel, he is pulling in an 8.72 mark in our home run model, ranking him third on the team behind the excellent opportunities projected for the next two hitters. Manny Machado and Juan Soto are both over the “magic number” in our home run model, with Machado at 11.39 and Soto at 11.83. Soto is second to only Aaron Judge on the overall board. So far this season the superstar outfielder is slashing .217/.368/.478, the hit tool is still missing in action, but he has hit three home runs and has a .261 ISO while creating runs 27% better than average. Machado has hit no home runs and is slashing .250/.286/.308 while creating runs 37% worse than average, numbers that absolutely will be different as the sample grows. Machado is far too good to be kept down for very long. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts has been exactly as-advertised to this point for his new team. Bogaerts basically comes out of the box with a great slash-line, he is currently at .327/.414/.633 with a .306 ISO, four home runs, a stolen base, and a mark that sits 75% above average for run creation in the very young season. The shortstop is an under-appreciated MLB DFS producer, he should not be skipped in Padres’ stacks. Jake Cronenworth hit 17 home runs last year and 21 the year before, he exemplifies the mid-range power that is in abundance through the back half of the Padres’ projected batting order. Cronenworth is affordable at $4,300 on DraftKings and he is cheap at $2,600 with multi-position eligibility on the blue site. Matt Carpenter is looking to prove that last year’s zombie revival was no flash in the pan, he is off to a .200/.355/.360 start, with a .160 ISO and one home run. Ha-Seong Kim is more a hit tool and speed player, but he has 11 home runs on the board from 2022 and another eight the year before, he can be played as a correlation piece who can surprise with an infrequent long ball. Rougned Odor and Austin Nola round out the bottom of the lineup.