A short afternoon sprint of an MLB DFS main slate features just four games on both DraftKings and FanDuel on Thursday. The schedule was originally for a more robust slate, but weather forced the postponement of four games in an early scheduling move by Major League Baseball, leaving MLB DFS gamers with interesting options on a slate that includes the most targetable pitcher in baseball making a start at Coors Field. Toronto also looks to be in an excellent spot for power, leading to the strong desire to stack Rockies and Blue Jays bats in combination with one another frequently. The board has several quality pitching options available for a short slate, though DraftKings gamers will be challenged for pricing combinations.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to any news for changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Breakdown – 4/6/23
Boston Red Sox (-133/4.31) @ Detroit Tigers (+123/3.77)
The first game of the day lands in Detroit, with the Red Sox taking on Spencer Turnbull and the Tigers. The right-handed starter was featured in our Power Index column, as he has one good habit, keeping the ball in the yard. Turnbull is not a good pitcher and he missed all of last season. He was torched for sequencing, walks, and runs by the Rays and was chased after just 2.1 innings in his first start of 2023, but he did not allow a home run in the start. Turnbull managed to limit homers to just 1.00% over his 50-inning nine-start season in 2021 and was at a similarly low mark in the absurd 2020 season. Even in an extended 148.1 innings in 2019, he limited home runs to just 2.13%. The Red Sox will still score runs and will probably have Turnbull in the shower before the fourth inning, they just might not do it via the long ball. Alex Verdugo slashed .280/.328/.405 while creating runs three percent better than average last season, he is off to a .346/.393/.538 start with a 155 WRC+ over his first 28 plate appearances and should be a fixture atop the Red Sox lineup and MLB DFS stacks that use it all season. The outfielder is followed by phenomenal third baseman Rafael Devers, who has the best chance on this team of taking Turnbull to the stands. Devers crushed 27 home runs with a .225 ISO last year and hit 38 massive shots with a .259 ISO the year before. He has one already this year in just 28 opportunities. The left-handed duo hits in front of veteran Justin Turner and rookie Masataka Yoshida. On the surface, the free-agent star from Japan’s NPB has seemed quick to answer questions about justifying the amount of money that the Red Sox gave him, Yoshida has a home run and has stolen a base while scoring five times and driving in six runs to start his career. With that, however, he has managed just a .200/.286/.320 triple-slash and he has a WRC+ 34% below average in the extremely early going. At $4,900 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, Yoshida is an easy piece to click into Boston stacks. Right-handed Adam Duvall and Triston Casas slot into the middle of the order and both bring a fair amount of power. Duvall hit 12 home runs in his 315 plate appearances last year, a far cry from the 38 blasts that he hit in 555 tries the year before. The bottom of the lineup is comprised of mix-and-match pieces in the form of Enrique Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, and catcher Reese McGuire, all of whom can be played against Turnbull and the Tigers bullpen.
On the Detroit side of the affair, the lousy Tigers lineup is facing lefty Chris Sale, who is looking to reclaim his career after a rash of freak injuries the last few seasons. Sale has been limited to just 48.1 innings over two seasons, throwing just 5.2 last year and 42.2 in 2021. The southpaw made it through just three innings of work against Baltimore in his first start of the season. Sale struck out six hitters but he also issued two walks and was charged with seven runs on seven hits. Of course, that came against a far superior offense. When he was right, Sale was one of baseball’s best, even in the 42.2 innings in 2021 he was strong with a 28.4% strikeout rate. If he can find any of his old form against these Tigers, Sale could cruise to value at just $7,500 on DraftKings and $9,000 on FanDuel, he is worthy of investment on the mound even in a short limited start. The Tigers do not feature many appealing bats, but if we are chasing the notion that Sale is not yet ready for primetime, it makes sense to pursue them in at least limited shares. Detroit’s lineup featured Matt Vierling in the leadoff role today. The right-handed hitter slashed .246/.297/.351 in 357 plate appearances last year while creating runs 19% worse than average. Vierling is the first of four hitters starting this lineup who were well below average for run creation last season, suggesting that Detroit may have read the how-to manual wrong. Javier Baez had a WRC+ of 90 over 590 plate appearances last season, he managed just 17 home runs and does not carry the value his name once earned. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson owe Detroit more than the 98 and 76 WRC+ marks they posted last season. The young players need to accelerate their development. Eric Haase is a reasonably good home run play in the catcher spot, though he managed just an 8.7% barrel rate and eight home runs in 404 plate appearances last season. The bottom of the lineup includes Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop, and other barely playable options.
Play: Red Sox stacks, Chris Sale, minor shares of Tigers bats
Update Notes:
Toronto Blue Jays (-197/5.04) @ Kansas City Royals (+180/3.57)
An elite Blue Jays lineup seems likely to be popular as they check in with a 5.04-run implied team total in a matchup against right-handed veteran starter Jordan Lyles. Lyles comes at just a $7,000 price tag on DraftKings and he is a $6,700 option on the blue site, because the fantasy sites know that he is very unlikely to come through for any quality this evening. The righty had an 18.6% strikeout rate over 32 starts and 179 innings last season. He yielded a 3.36% home run rate with a 38.1% hard-hit mark and a 10.4% barrel rate. Lyles pitched to a 4.40 xFIP, walking 6.7% and posting a 1.39 WHIP, which is indicative of far too many opportunities allowed. He was similarly bad in 2021, with a notably higher 4.94% home run percentage allowed as well. Lyles is a target for bats, even if they come up chalky the Blue Jays seem worthwhile, and there are hitters that the field tends to ignore who can provide differentiation. The easy three names up top are all pulling in home run ratings well above 10 in our model today. George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are a killer combo of a three-man stack, but they are expensive from site to site for MLB DFS. On DraftKings, the trio will cost $16,000 total, while they land at an $11,600 tag across town on FanDuel. The three mashers hit 81 combined home runs last season – also known as only 19 more than division rival Aaron Judge managed on his own – they are an excellent option on any slate. Daulton Varsho has an excellent home run mark of his own, and the lefty slugger comes far less expensive than the top of the lineup. Varsho is likely to be a popular play at $3,900 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, he hit 27 home runs last season and created runs six percent better than average. For $4,300 and $3,400 across the industry, power-hitting Matt Chapman is too cheap and the field loves to leave him behind when stacking Blue Jays, don’t make that mistake, Chapman still has top-notch power. Lefties Brandon Belt and Cavan Biggio may be at the bottom of the lineup for Toronto today, and they are playable in spots for differentiation and to offset price and salary. Belt hit 29 home runs in just 381 plate appearances in 2021 before making just 298 plate appearances last year, the veteran is sneaky on this slate for just $2,400 and $2,200 from site to site.
On the other side, the Royals will be facing Toronto ace Kevin Gausman, who provides a clear premium pitching option on the short four-game slate. Gausman costs $9,000 on DraftKings and $10,800 on FanDuel, he should be the leading starter of the day. The righty was sharp with a 28.3% strikeout rate and just a 3.9% walk rate last season, pitching to a 2.76 xFIP over his 174.2 innings. He had an excellent 2.07% home run rate allowed while inducing a very strong 15.5% swinging-strike rate. Gausman is likely to find a fair number of strikeouts against a free-swinging power-oriented Kansas City club. The Royals bats could find their way against the righty, but the odds are with Gausman in this matchup, and MLB DFS gamers need to find pitching somewhere on this slate. Kansas City bats should be plucked from near the top of the lineup, with Bobby Witt Jr. and MJ Melendez leading the way in the top two spots. Melendez was today’s home run pick from this team, he is second on the Royals with a 5.94 in our home run model, trailing only Sal Perez, who lands at 6.23. Both backstops are in play and they can be played together with Melendez’s outfield eligibility. Vinnie Pasquantino has power as well as a strong hit tool and on-base skills. Edward Olivares is hitting fifth ahead of Michael Massey, the mid-lineup duo will be very low-owned and could be sneaky in this spot for just $6,300 combined on DraftKings, but the bottom of the lineup leaves something to be desired.
Play: Blue Jays stacks aggressively. Kevin Gausman, and minor shares of contrarian Royals stacks
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (+119/3.81) @ Chicago White Sox (-129/4.28)
Veteran right-hander Lance Lynn threw 5.2 innings, allowing two runs on three hits while striking out six in his first start of the season, a very “Lance Lynn” type of outing. The veteran has been a rock for MLB DFS gamers for the bulk of his career, at times providing value on the virtue of depth in addition to quality. Lynn is a reasonable bet for a quality start in his matchup against the Giants, though he is not entirely safe. San Francisco features a frisky offense, but one that has plenty of swing-and-miss available for a crafty veteran like Lynn. The righty had a 24.2% strikeout rate over his 121.2 innings after returning to the rotation last year and he put up a 27.5% mark in 157 innings in 2021. Lynn is facing a lineup that includes David Villar, Joc Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski, and Brandon Crawford, all of whom struck out at worse than league average last season. Villar had an aggressively bad 32% strikeout rate over his 181 plate appearances, but he hit nine home runs in the sample and created runs 24% better than average, which is a similar story up and down the Giants lineup. The team is a good picture of a modern ballclub, they care more about production and power than strikeouts. In addition to Villar, Pederson was at a 144 WRC+ last season, while later in the lineup Thairo Estrada posted a 107 mark. Estrada is dealing with a lingering injury and may not be in the final announced lineup this afternoon. Wade posted a 93 WRC+ last season with eight home runs in just 251 plate appearances, he is a compelling option against lesser pitchers, if the Giants are low-owned in the spot against Lynn on a short slate he should be a part of contrarian stacks. If J.D. Davis is in the lineup again he deserves a shot in MLB DFS lineups. Davis homered in a spot-start yesterday and he has a dynamite contact profile that warrants a regular job. Over 365 plate appearances last year, Davis had a 16.2% barrel rate and a 55.6% hard-hit rate that he converted into 12 home runs.
The White Sox will be facing a lefty with Alex Wood taking the mound. Wood had a 3.06% home run rate last year and his 3.41 xFIP was quite a bit better than his 5.10 ERA. The southpaw had a 3.44 xFIP and a 3.83 ERA the season before, he is a better pitcher than it may seem on the surface for box score watchers looking just at least year’s marks. Wood struck out 23.6% while walking just 5.4% last year, he was at 26% and 6.7% the season before. The lefty will be an interesting option for just $8,000 on DraftKings and $8,400 on FanDuel, he is not out of play against a White Sox lineup that is missing Eloy Jimenez. Chicago still features elite bats, they should be stacked in lineups that are not using Wood at pitcher, but both sides of the equation can be played in a full portfolio of lineups. Tim Anderson has an elite hit tool and speed combination, one can only hope that he will not get ejected a second day in a row. He is followed by excellent outfielder Luis Robert Jr. who leads this team with a 6.97 mark in our home run model. First baseman Andrew Vaughn hit 17 home runs last year while creating runs 13% better than average and slashing .271/.321/.429,helping the team decide to move on from Jose Abreu. Vaugh costs just $3,700 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel, where he also sports outfield eligibility. Vaughn’s 48.4% hard-hit rate suggests there is even more production inbound. Jake Burger, Hanser Alberto, and Andrew Benintendi make up the middle of the lineup today, which could help Wood’s case for a start. Benintendi is easily the best hitter in the group, he slashed .304/.373/.399 last season and created runs 22% better than average, but lacked significant power. It is difficult to see him as a correlation piece with the hitters who follow him, and he does not wrap around from his position in the lineup, leaving him in a bit of a no man’s land.
Play: Four corners: Lance Lynn, White Sox bats, some Giants bats, some Alex Wood
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+132/5.08) @ Colorado Rockies (-143/6.04)
The spot of the day, perhaps the year, sees Josiah Gray in Coors Field, a combination that may set off nuclear weapons detectors around the world and lock down NORAD. But first, the visiting Nationals and their terribly flawed lineup are carrying a 5.08-run implied total of their own, Coors Field does funny things for scoring. The Nationals are facing lefty Kyle Freeland, who sported a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.53 ERA last year while striking out just 17.1% of opposing hitters. The contact-oriented lefty had similar marks the year before, but he is reasonably good at limiting home runs and overall power for a starter who sees so much action in this ballpark. Freeland had a 4.43 xFIP in his home starts last year and a 4.60 mark on the road. The Nationals have bats that will be used around the MLB DFS industry today, this does not make them good. The team includes options like Lane Thomas, who produced a 96 WRC+ in his 548 plate appearances in 2022. Thomas hit 17 home runs in the sample and is fine in a Coors Field game, but he is uninspiring and seems likely to be over-owned, given that the sites forgot to adjust pricing for Coors Field today. Alex Call and Joey Meneses are playable alongside Thomas, Meneses had a nice 240 plate appearances last season, going deep 13 times and slashing .324/.367/.563, and switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario can round out a stack with mediocrity. Catcher Keibert Ruiz and Stone Garrett are worth considering if they are in the lineup, but the most interesting hitter may once again be Michael Chavis, who drives the ball quite well against left-handed pitching and could be low-owned lurking late in the lineup. Chavis hit 14 home runs in 426 plate appearances for Pittsburgh last year.
Josiah Gray has been a target in this space for some time. The right-handed starter yields far too much power. Gray was featured for the upside he was providing to a visiting offense in his first start at home in Washington D.C. last week, he promptly allowed three long balls in five innings. Now he travels to Coors Field. The combination of this pitcher and ballpark should not be allowed, the advantage to Colorado’s offense is that strong today. Gray allowed a ridiculous 5.86% home run rate across 148.2 innings last season, which was quite the improvement on the 6.19% rate he yielded in 70.2 innings the season before. CJ Cron has already hit five home runs off of Gray today before even leaving his house, his chances are that strong. Cron leads the Rockies with a massive 17.08 in our home run model, but a full six members of the team, all of the top-6 in the projected batting order, are above the “magic number” today. Stacking lineups that include Jurickson Profar, a mid-range power and speed option from the leadoff spot for just $3,600 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel, as well as Kris Bryant, Charlie Blackmon, Cron, Ryan McMahon, and rookie Elehuris Montero is the main focus. Profar hit 15 home runs last season and added eight stolen bases, he will look to be in high gear in his home debut for the team that signed him in late March. Kris Bryant is far from finished, he simply missed most of last season. Bryant hit 25 home runs in 2021 with a .216 ISO, he is pulling in a 13.70 in our home run model today. The lefties in the lineup, Blackmon and McMahon, are both in play against a flawed righty of this nature, and the right-handed Montero has a chance to put his power on display after hitting six home runs in 185 plate appearances in a call-up last season.
Play: Rockies stacks aggressively, Nationals stacks; no pitching.
Update Notes:
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