A short Thursday afternoon Main Slate features just four games after a rash of early postponements. Regardless, today’s slate features one of the very best-looking spots for offense, with column-favorite target Josiah Gray pitching in the launching pad that is Coors Field. That combination leads the power index this week, but the opposite end of the spectrum is equally interesting and displays an important nuance of our Power Index. Spencer Turnbull is not good, and he is likely to yield a number of runs and sequencing opportunities to the Red Sox today, but his lone skill comes in suppressing the home run.

Main Slate Power Index – 4/6/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel

The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting valuable doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.

Josiah Gray has been a target in this space for some time. The right-handed starter yields far too much power. Gray was featured for the upside he was providing to a visiting offense in his first start at home in Washington D.C. last week, he promptly allowed three long balls in five innings. Now he travels to Coors Field. The combination of this pitcher and ballpark should not be allowed, the advantage to Colorado’s offense is that strong today. Gray allowed a ridiculous 5.86% home run rate across 148.2 innings last season, which was quite the improvement on the 6.19% rate he yielded in 70.2 innings the season before. CJ Cron has already hit five home runs off of Gray today before even leaving his house, his chances are that strong. Cron leads the Rockies with a massive 17.08 in our home run model, but a full six members of the team, all of the top-6 in the projected batting order, are above the “magic number” today. Stacking lineups that include Jurickson Profar, a mid-range power and speed option from the leadoff spot for just $3,600 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel, as well as Kris Bryant, Charlie Blackmon, Cron, Ryan McMahon, and rookie Elehuris Montero is the main focus. Profar hit 15 home runs last season and added eight stolen bases, he will look to be in high gear in his home debut for the team that signed him in late March. Kris Bryant is far from finished, he simply missed most of last season. Bryant hit 25 home runs in 2021 with a .216 ISO, he is pulling in a 13.70 in our home run model today. The lefties in the lineup, Blackmon and McMahon, are both in play against a flawed righty of this nature, and the right-handed Montero has a chance to put his power on display after hitting six home runs in 185 plate appearances in a call-up last season.

At the bottom of the spectrum, the Red Sox are not a team to be skipped for MLB DFS purposes. There is too much upside for Boston’s offense facing a pitcher like Spencer Turnbull, even without the home run power. This exact scenario played out in Turnbull’s start last Saturday when he was similarly projecting to suppress power for the Rays. In that start, Turnbull managed to make it through just 2.1 innings, yielding seven runs on eight hits and three walks, but he did not allow a home run. Turnbull did not pitch in 2022, but he yielded just two long balls in 50 innings the season before and two in 56.2 innings in 2020. He allowed 14 home runs in 148.1 innings in 2019, in his last extended sample. None of this is to say that Turnbull is worth starting for MLB DFS, the Red Sox are very likely to create runs against him with or without the home run. Particularly on a short slate, it makes sense to maintain interest in hitters like Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers, two excellent lefties who should feast on the flawed starter early. Justin Turner occupies a key role in this lineup and has swung a productive bat to start the season, while NPB free agent gem Masataka Yoshida found his power stroke over the weekend. Adam Duvall, Triston Casas, and the mix-and-match options from late in the lineup are all playable against Turnbull as well.