Wednesday features a nine-game Main Slate for MLB DFS on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate gets rolling at the standard 1:05 ET afternoon lock time, with a handful of games and the last game starts at 2:10 ET, which should make for a fun sprint of a slate. Most of the teams on the board are back to the top of their rotations, so gamers will enjoy a wealth of quality pitching options, while offense may be more difficult to come by than on recent slates. Of course, there are several excellent spots for Power and Home Runs. In addition to stellar matchups like Nola vs Cole, the slate features an exciting MLB debut for the Orioles, with their prized young prospect coming in at a $4,000 price tag on the DraftKings slate he is sure to be a major part of the afternoon for MLB DFS gamers across the industry.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to any news for changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Breakdown – 4/5/23
Philadelphia Phillies (+142/3.16) @ New York Yankees (-155/3.92)
A premium pitching matchup in the Bronx is suppressing the implied team totals for both the Phillies and Yankees, but we are also seeing some available individual power as both starters can give up the occasional long ball. The Yankees are running out right-handed ace Gerrit Cole, who allowed a 4.16% home run rate last season and a 3.31% mark the year before but is otherwise entirely brilliant. Cole had a 2.78 xFIP with a 32.4% strikeout rate over his 200.2 innings in 33 starts last year, he was at a 2.93 xFIP and a 33.5% strikeout rate in 181.1 innings the season before. The dominant righty induced a 14.3% swinging-strike rate and had a 31.9% CSW% while walking just 6.3% and keeping his WHIP to a sparking 1.02 last year. Cole will be facing a Phillies lineup that features plenty of swing-and-miss, with an average strikeout rate of 24.7% from last year for the projected lineup. There is plenty of power available in Trea Turner, who is also one of the few Phillies bats who is quite difficult to strike out, and Kyle Schwarber has a monster home run model mark at 14.80, putting him in the “likely to homer” camp. J.T. Realmuto should return to the lineup after a night off ahead of the day game, the catcher is always in play, and eh costs just $4,900 where his position is required. First baseman Darick Hall is the other Phillies hitter over 10 in our home run model, Hall is filling in for Rhys Hoskins all season and needs to bring the power that was displayed in hitting nine home runs in 142 opportunities last year. The bottom of the Phillies lineup includes options like Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh, any of whom could find a Yankee Stadium home run against Cole. Still, the objective is probably not to create a great many Phillies stacks, the odds are firm that Cole will pitch through this lineup cleanly while finding his strikeout upside, he just might allow a home run or two along the way. Individual Phillies bats are better than full stacks today.
The same can be said for the Yankees, who are facing the excellent Aaron Nola, who had a rough outing in his season debut last week. Nola should be quick to right the ship, he is one of the more sturdy reliable starters in the game. Over 205 innings last season, Nola had a 3.6% walk rate with a 29.1% strikeout rate. He pitched to a sterling 2.77 xFIP with a microscopic 0.96 WHIP while inducing a 12.6% swinging-strike rate and allowing just a 2.35% home run rate. There was more power available against Nola the year before when he yielded a 3.47% mark, but he has been excellent for years. The righty should post a solid MLB DFS score on both sites, he has the depth to get to a quality start on FanDuel and he should find plenty of strikeouts against the Yankees. Nola is facing a lineup that sports a ridiculous number of stars, with Aaron Judge the obvious big name. Judge led all of baseball with 62 home runs last season, he is the lone Yankees hitter above a 10 in our home run model, but several others are pushing that mark close on the other side. Giancarlo Stanton sits at a 9.99 in the model, while Anthony Rizzo checks in at 8.28. The trio forms a lethal righty-lefty-righty core in the heart of the Yankees lineup, Judge, Stanton, and Rizzo combined for 125 home runs last season. DJ LeMahieu seems to have found his stroke early and by all accounts is finally recovered from lingering injuries that have sapped his talent over the past two seasons, Gleyber Torres is also firing on all cylinders for the Yankees early, while Josh Donaldson, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Jose Trevino are also in the lineup. Rookie standout Anthony Volpe will be good for steals any time he is on base, but he may be in a tough spot against Nola this early in his career. Ultimately, the Yankees are playable and can be stacked, but much like Philadelphia the upside is probably more in the individual or small-stack plays, there is not a lot of room to get to Nola on most afternoons.
Play: Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola, minor shares of both stacks/individual hitters
Update Notes: Giancarlo Stanton is sitting for the Yankees, Franchy Cordero is in the lineup as a left-handed power option with low projection but a decent home run ceiling for $2,200 on DraftKings and $2,000 on FanDuel. Cordero is eligible at first base and in the outfield on both sites.
Tampa Bay Rays (-250/4.99) @ Washington Nationals (+224/3.12)
One of the prime targets of the day comes in the nation’s capital. The Rays are facing southpaw Patrick Corbin, who has allowed far too much power and run creation over the past few seasons. Corbin is only in play for the most risk-friendly, he does not offer much strikeout upside and he is likely to get tattooed in this spot. Corbin put up just an 18% strikeout rate last season while yielding a 3.79% home run rate on a massive 11% barrel rate and 44.6% hard-hit percentage. The year before he allowed a 9.2% barrel rate and a 40.7% hard-hit percentage with a 4.93% home run rate. Between the amount and the quality of the contact that Corbin yields, the Rays should be in business all afternoon once again. This team is excellent for sequencing and creating runs, and they have plenty of power up and down the projected lineup. Infielder Isaac Paredes is the highest-rated player in the Rays’ projected lineup at 10.86 in our home run model. The young slugger hit 20 home runs in just 381 plate appearances last year but needs to fully develop his contact. Paredes is a strong play in the middle of the lineup, he is surrounded by hitters including Yandy Diaz, who has started this season red hot. Diaz is a strong correlation play with his hit tool and ability to get on, and he is showing off power upside early this year. Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, and Harold Ramirez are a solid trio through the middle, Ramirez is a platoon player with a quality stick who is always in play for line drives and scoring against a lefty and could go deep against Corbin. That group up top is missing power hitting Brandon Lowe, who may sit against a southpaw. The lineup includes Jose Siri, who was noted here for power and speed upside and homered yesterday, as well as Manuel Margot, who slashed .274/.325/.375 with four home runs in his 363 plate appearances last season. The top of the lineup is the power core for the Rays in this matchup.
On the other side of the contest, the Nationals have a brutal matchup against lefty Shane McClanahan, who looks like a strong play on both sites. The southpaw checks in for just $8,800 on the DraftKings slate but $10,600 on FanDuel, making him a very different play from site to site. At what should be high popularity on DraftKings, McClanahan still makes a strong play, pairing him with Grayson Rodriguez for just $4,000 is quite a cheap way to get to a lot of pitching talent. The hope on the blue site is that the high price will suppress McClanahan’s popularity. The lefty had an excellent 30.3% strikeout rate over 166.1 innings last season, he was at a 27.3% mark over 123.1 in 25 starts the year before. He allows very minimal power, with just a 2.96% home run rate and a sterling 32.5% hard-hit rate allowed last season. McClanahan has a very good shot at posting a slate-leading MLB DFS score, even with the litany of aces going today, the matchup is that strong. The Nationals will counter with a lineup including spare parts like Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses, Jeimer Candelario, and Michael Chavis. Thomas was this afternoon’s home run pick from the Nationals, he hit 17 in 548 tries last year. Meneses hit 13 home runs in 240 tries while slashing .324/.367/.563 and creating runs 56% better than average. Candelario hit 13 home runs but was 20% worse than average in creating runs. Chavis hit 14 quiet home runs in a part-time role for the Pirates and has long had an excellent contact profile, but has never been able to secure a full-time role. None of them are worth many shares. The rest of the Nationals’ lineup is even lower-end. Chavis is the most interesting member of the lineup, he has mashed left-handed pitching in his career and he has upside and will be entirely ignored at a cheap price, but there is still not much to love in the matchup.
Play: Rays stacks and Shane McClanahan
Update Notes:
Minnesota Twins (-114/3.62) @ Miami Marlins (+105/3.45)
An interesting pitching matchup in the mid-range comes in Miami’s pitching-friendly ballpark and comes with a revenge narrative, for those who are fans of such nonsense. The Twins are facing left-handed Jesus Luzardo, who yielded no runs but had a 5.27 xERA in his first start of the year. The southpaw rang up a terrific 30.0% strikeout rate over his 100.1 innings in 18 starts last season, his problem has never been talent but an inability to stay on the mound for long stretches, the former top prospect has never thrown more innings than last year’s total. Now in his age-25 season, Luzardo has plenty to prove but he is still well ahead of the curve on talent at his age. Against a swing-happy Twins club, Luzardo could be primed for a big day if he can pitch through the lineup cleanly and avoid the free pass. In his first start, Luzardo walked four of 21 hitters in 5.2 innings, a wildly unsustainable 19% rate. Last season Luzardo walked 8.8% of hitters, but that was down from 11% the year before, so he is improving his control and command with development. At a ridiculous $7,900 on the DraftKings slate, Luzardo would be a prime SP2 play were it not for Grayson Rodriguez’s $4,000 price. As it is, Luzardo should be strongly considered for shares against the high-strikeout Twins, he could have a big day. At $9,000 on FanDuel, the lefty is very much in play. Twins bats should not be left entirely on the table, however. Luzardo has allowed a 39% hard-hit rate each of the last two seasons and he is not impossible to hit a home run against. The Twins strike out a great deal but they are loaded for power, with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa both cresting the 10-mark in our home run model. Buxton is one of the day’s leaders for home run upside at a 16.64 mark. When he is healthy he is one of the very best players in the game. Last season, Buxton made 382 plate appearances and hit 28 home runs while creating runs 36% better than average. Correa is an excellent shortstop who had difficulty securing a new job and ended up back in Minnesota, much to the Twins’ benefit. He hit 22 home runs while slashing .291/.366/.467 last season. Jose Miranda hit 14 home runs and had a 42.1% hard hit rate with just an 18.8% strikeout rate last year, he is a capable piece if he is in the middle of the lineup. Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers could provide sneaky power from the right side if they are in the starting lineup, while other projected hitters include names like Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor, and Willi Castro. The depth of a Twins stack will depend on the final form of today’s lineup.
The Marlins will be facing the potentially revenge-seeking Pablo Lopez, who pitched for the team from 2018-2022. Lopez is a capable right-handed starter who was overshadowed by his Cy Young Award-winning teammate last season. The righty quietly posted a solid 23.6% strikeout rate over 180 innings with a 3.56 xFIP and a 3.75 ERA last year. He induced an excellent 12.7% swinging-strike rate with a 1.17 WHIP. Lopez is underrated, he had a 27.5% strikeout rate over 102.2 innings the year before and he could easily fall more toward that end of the spectrum this year with the Twins. The righty is facing a lineup better than the one he left after last season. AL batting champ Luis Arraez was the return for Lopez, he will be in the leadoff spot looking to provide his typical MLB DFS correlated scoring, but he does not have immense individual upside. Arraez is followed by masher Jorge Soler, who is best against lefties but can easily homer against a righty as well. Soler and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are the two Marlins above the 10-mark in the home run model today. Chisholm hits behind Garrett Cooper in the projected lineup, the foursome up top is a playable stack in limited shares. After slashing .254/.325/.535 with 14 home runs in a mere 241 plate appearances last year, Chisholm seems primed for a big breakout season, though he is off to just a .150/.261/.350 start with one home run over his first 23 plate appearances in six games. Hopefully, the field has begun watching box scores already, if Chisholm is low-owned, buy more shares. Avisail Garcia and Jean Segura bring veteran quality to the back half of the lineup, while young Jesus Sanchez remains a raw slugger loaded with enticing potential power that is yet to be unlocked at the Major League level. Speed demon Jon Berti is always in play as a wraparound if he is in the lineup.
Play: Four corners game – Jesus Luzardo, Pablo Lopez, some shares of Twins stacks, Marlins stacks
Update Notes: Chisholm is in the leadoff spots for the Marlins, and Arraez is sitting out.
Atlanta Braves (+117/4.31) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-127/4.80)
The Braves and Cardinals square off again in a matchup between what should be two of the National League’s best teams all season. This is a pairing we could easily see in the playoffs this season, both teams feature loaded lineups and both teams are putting contact-oriented pitchers on the mound today. The Cardinals are starting veteran righty Miles Mikolas, a pitch-to-contact specialist. Mikolas threw 202.1 innings in 32 starts last year, striking out just 19% of opposing hitters but walking just 4.8% and posting a 1.03 WHIP. The righty yielded a 3.11% home run rate on just 35.7% hard hits with a 6.9% barrel rate allowed, he is quite good at limiting premium contact and pitching through a game cleanly, even if he does not find many strikeouts along the way. Mikolas is cheap at $7,100 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel, but the matchup is brutal. In a better spot, this pitcher would be in play, particularly for the quality start on the blue site, but it is difficult to recommend him against the absurd Atlanta lineup. Ronald Acuna Jr. sits at a 9.22 in our home run model, just under the magic number, a mark that is crested by the two and three hitters in this lineup. Following Acuna, who got on base at a .351 clip and stole 29 bases last season, are Matt Olson and Austin Riley, deadly home run hitters from each side of the plate. The corner infield duo is excellent for home run upside as well as run creation, they were both over a 50% hard-hit rate last season. Michael Harris II brings power and speed to the dish for just $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, after the first three hitters the Braves lineup is relatively inexpensive, those prices are low for a player who hit 19 home runs and stole 20 bases in just 441 opportunities as a rookie last season. All-Star second baseman Ozzie Albies is another excellent multi-tooled bat in this lineup, he can be played along with either of the Braves’ excellent catchers, as well as outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario, depending on the final form of the lineup.
Atlanta will be starting second-season hurler Bryce Elder, a righty who made nine starts and covered 54 innings last year. Elder had just a 20.7% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate last year, but he held hard hits to just 34.4% and limited home runs to an excellent 1.76%. Home runs are a particularly noisy stat for pitchers, however, so in a small sample for a rookie starter that mark should be taken lightly. The contact profile does support this as an actual talent, however, Elder allowed just a 5.8% barrel rate and an 8.8-degree average launch angle. If he is able to find a few strikeouts this season and limits his walks, Edler could take a small step forward as a pitcher. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are not the team to pick for a skills refinement session. St. Louis features Brendan Donovan atop the projected lineup. The lefty slashed .281/.394/.379 last season, making him a strong correlation play with the stars in the Cardinals lineup. Lefty outfielder Alec Burleson is projected to hit second today, if he is in that spot he is an interesting MLB DFS option at just $2,600 with first base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings and for $2,700 in the outfield on the blue site. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado should always be included in Cardinals stacks, and the entire bottom of the lineup is playable. It is a wealthy team that has names like Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Tyler O’Neill, and Tommy Edman hitting in the second half. Gorman is a ridiculous masher of baseballs, as is O’Neill, who also brings some speed to the equation. Contreras is one of the best hitters at the catcher position in baseball, and Edman is a dynamite wraparound option who stole 32 bases last year. This does not even mention rookie sensation Jordan Walker, who comes in at just $2,600 on DraftKings and $2,700 with outfield and third base eligibility on FanDuel.
Play: Braves stacks, Cardinals stacks
Update Notes:
Pittsburgh Pirates (+129/3.95) @ Boston Red Sox (-140/4.64)
Right-handed veteran Corey Kluber is taking on the young upstart Pittsburgh in Boston today, which is pushing down the numbers for the Pirates to the point where Logan Roy may start yelling at them (watch Succession if you don’t already). Kluber is a weak contact specialist, he allowed just a 34.7% hard-hit rate last year with a 6.9% barrel rate and a 2.90% home run rate allowed over 164 innings. He is capable of a strikeout upside game, but overall posted just a 20.2% rate for the season, following up a 24% mark he had over 80 innings the year before. The righty has reinvented himself late in his career and will look to pitch to and induce weak contact all day long. Against a young lineup like the Pirates, this could be a very effective approach that could also help Kluber with some strikeouts as the impatient young hitters look to break the pattern. If playing Pirates, the obvious names should be the focus, Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, and Carlos Santana, along with Andrew McCutchen and the young players through the middle of the lineup would be the focus bats, but the upside is somewhat capped for the Pirates on paper today.
Boston draws right-handed Mitch Keller, who had exactly the game everyone should have expected in his first start of the season. Keller pitched just 4.2 innings and allowed four earned runs on six hits and four walks, but he struck out eight hitters. The frustrating righty brings ridiculously good stuff to the mound, but he has never been able to lock down his control and command to the point that he becomes truly effective and reliable. For now, Keller remains trapped in “don’t we wish” land. The righty will have a small handful of premium starts this season, while they are difficult to suss out, this does not appear to be the spot. Boston’s veteran lineup is talented, patient, and powerful. The team is not pulling major home run marks, but they seem strong for sequencing and scoring in this matchup. Keller walked 8.7% of opposing hitters while striking out just 20.1% overall last season and he issued free passes to 10.4% the year before. Hitters like Alex Verdguo and Rafael Devers, a pair of excellent lefty bats atop the lineup, should be able to beat up on Keller early. Justin Turner is slashing .316/.458/.368 over his first 24 plate appearances in a Red Sox uniform, the veteran hit 13 home runs and created runs 23% better than average across 532 plate appearances last season, he still has something left to give. Rookie sluggers Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas form a solid young duo and make four of the first five projected hitters left-handed, which could be a nightmare for Keller. The bottom of the lineup should include pieces like Christian Arroyo and Raimel Tapia, as well as Yu Chang and Connor Wong, all of whom are cheap and likely to be low-owned as usable parts.
Play: Corey Kluber, Red Sox stacks
Update Notes:
New York Mets (+119/3.57) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-129/4.01)
The Mets are difficult to get to in any large proportions against elite Brewers starter Corbin Burnes. While we just saw this game turn the tables on a Mets ace with the Brewers pounding on Max Scherzer last night, it seems somewhat unlikely that the Mets will return the favor this afternoon. Burnes is dynamite and somehow costs just $8,600 on the broken DraftKings pitching slate. He is a $10,200 option and is highly playable at that price on the FanDuel slate as well. Burnes threw 202 innings last season, pitching to a 2.85 xFIP with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. That came a year after his Cy Young-winning 2.30 xFIP and 2.43 ERA with a 35.6% strikeout rate the season before. Burnes is one of baseball’s very best, even against a good lineup like that of the Mets, his DraftKings price is inexplicable today, take advantage. When rostering Mets, focus on the primary bats atop the lineup, they will all be low-owned in this spot because they are unlikely to succeed and it is inadvisable to play them. Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso are the main focus for the Mets, while Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, and Jeff McNeil are the next-best options.
The Brewers went off last night, particularly Brian Anderson, who hit two home runs in a monster performance. The team will be facing Mets lefty David Peterson this evening, a young starter who had a 27.8% strikeout rate over 105.2 innings in 19 starts last year. Peterson is a quality pitcher who checks in at $7,200 on DraftKings and $8,500 on FanDuel, which puts him in play if one ignores the opportunity cost associated with other better options on the slate. The southpaw was lucky to limit home runs to just 2.42% on a 41.4% hard-hit rate last year, he will have difficulty repeating that trick this season, which could lead to another power show for Milwaukee. The Brewers lineup should feature Mike Brosseau, Willy Adames, and Christian Yelich up top. Brosseau is a platoon specialist who finds his quality against lefties, he has a solid track toward MLB DFS points today at just $2,200 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel. Adames and Yelich are stars, while catcher William Contreras can provide positional quality as needed. Contreras hit 20 home runs in 376 opportunities last season. Luke Voit has been overrated since his performance in the 2020 season, but he has a strong contact profile and can drive the ball for a home run from time to time. Voit hit 22 home runs in 568 plate appearances last year, posting a 14.7% barrel rate but striking out 31.5% of the time. Rowdy Tellez, Brian Anderson, and Joey Wiemer are late-lineup options.
Play: Corbin Burnes, minor shares of Brewers bats
Update Notes:
Baltimore Orioles (+165/3.23) @ Texas Rangers (-181/4.36)
The big meatball game on today’s MLB DFS slate comes in Texas, with the Baltimore Orioles throwing MLB DFS gamers a curveball by calling up prized prospect Grayson Rodriguez, who checks in for $7,500 on FanDuel and a stunning $4,000 on the DraftKings slate. The current top pitching prospect in baseball will be dueling with the best pitcher of the previous generation, Jacob deGrom. The right-hander had a stupid 42.7% strikeout rate over his 64.1 innings in 11 starts last year, he is only prevented from winning the Cy Young Award every season by his inability to stay on the mound. deGrom had a 1.54 xFIP and a 31.8% hard-hit rate last year while inducing a hilariously good 21.1% swinging-strike rate. Play deGrom at $9,500 on DraftKings and $9,900 on FanDuel. The Orioles are a darling lineup of this column so far in the early season, they are not off the board given their talent level and the notion of getting to a bullpen at some point, but this is a very thin needle to thread. Baltimore bats include the usual options: Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, and Jorge Mateo. If Gunnar Henderson is back in the lineup he would also be playable, but stacking should be very limited.
Now for the feature. Grayson Rodriguez is inarguably talented. The young righty is the very best pitching prospect in baseball, he struck out a phenomenal 35.8% of hitters at AAA in 69.2 innings last season and has been consistently above the 30% mark throughout his brief run through the minor leagues. Rodriguez faces a stiff challenge in his debut however, the righty is facing a loaded Rangers lineup that has a wealth of power at the top, and it is shining through in our home run model. For the $4,000 price on DraftKings, Rodriguez is a free square in many DraftKings lineups, and he should be utilized as such. With that in mind, however, stacking contrarian Rangers bats against him as a direct hedge and an angle into the slate is also a very strong approach. Doing both is possible across a portfolio of 150 lineups. Rodriguez will also be popular on FanDuel at his price, but it is not nearly the same situation. He is playable as a starter on the blue site, but the Texas bats look like a solid option there as well, we are just less likely to be taking out half the field when the play succeeds on the FanDuel slate. The top four hitters in the Texas lineup are all over the “magic number” of 10 in our home run model. With all four of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, and Adolis Garcia pulling that much power upside and each coming in at less than $4,000 on FanDuel and less than $5,000 on DraftKings, we have a dynamite contrarian stack that can attack the ownership of a large swath of the public. This is not to say that Rodriguez should be avoided, he should be played aggressively at that DraftKings price, but drawing shares of Texas bats can be profitable in this situation. The rest of the lineup features Josh Jung, who is pulling a respectable 8.96 in the model, as well as Brad Miller, who sits at 7.96. Both players are capable of driving the ball, though Miller is the more experienced and reliable of the pair, he should also be less popular and comes at a lower price later in the batting order. If Ezequiel Duran plays again he is worthy of consideration as well.
Play: Jacob deGrom, Grayson Rodriguez, Texas stacks
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (+122/3.54) @ Chicago White Sox (-133/4.04)
Yet another top-notch pitching matchup comes in the game in the Windy City. The Giants will be facing righty Dylan Cease, a strikeout artist of the highest order. Cease posted a 30.4% strikeout rate last year and a 31.9% mark the season before. He still walks too many hitters, last season he issued far too many free passes at 10.4% but he was still excellent with a 3.50 xFIP and a 1.11 WHIP to go with his sparkling surface number of 2.20 in the ERA column. Cease may not be quite as good as that number makes him seem, but he is one of the league’s best for punchouts, putting him very much in play against a free-swinging Giants squad. Cease projects for a strong MLB DFS score on this slate and he may go under-owned given the number of competitive pitching options. He costs just $9,100 on DraftKings but $10,800 on FanDuel, where he is definitely a pay-up to be a contrarian option. LaMonte Wade Jr. and Michael Conforto give the Giants a pair of capable lefties with a moderate amount of power at the top of the lineup, both players are good at getting on base and setting the table for teammates as well. They can be combined with bats like Thairo Estrada and Joc Pederson, the latter of whom leads the team with a 7.39 in our home run model, as well as Mike Yastrzemski, another quality left-handed bat. The bottom of the lineup keys around David Villar and Brandon Crawford, but there is not much to love.
Right-handed Logan Webb is on the bump for the Giants, which is bad news for the home run probability marks on the typically solid White Sox. Webb is not an overpowering starter, he struck out just 20.7% of opposing hitters of 192.1 innings last season, a year after putting up a much better 26.5% mark in 148.1 innings, with the truth probably in the middle. Webb is terrific at limiting power, he allowed just a 1.40% home run rate on a 5.5% barrel rate last year and a 1.51% mark on a 5.6% barrel rate in 2021. The righty keeps the ball aggressively on the ground, he allowed just a 3.1-degree average launch angle last season, which was up from the -0.5 to which he held hitters in 2021. Webb is very difficult to hit for power and subsequently for MLB DFS scoring, the White Sox are all under 5.0 in the home run model today, but sequencing, scoring, and speed could get minor shares or individuals there in this matchup. For those purposes, the focus would be on Tim Anderson, Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Benintendi, and Eloy Jimenez at the top of the lineup. Oscar Colas remains cheap as a rookie option if he is playing today, and Yasmani Grandal is a power and correlation option behind the plate, but he is equally suppressed by Webb’s quality.
Play: Dylan Cease; Logan Webb is “fine” but his projection comes on depth and clean innings rather than strikeouts, with the premium options available he may fall by the wayside.
Update Notes: Eloy Jimenez is out for the White Sox, further reducing the quality of their lineup today. Moncada is hitting cleanup followed by Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets.
Detroit Tigers (+230/2.90) @ Houston Astros (-257/4.71)
A very weak Tigers lineup is facing one of the game’s best young hurlers, right-handed Cristian Javier. Over 148.2 innings in 25 starts last year, Javier posted a 33.2% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate while inducing a 13.8% swinging-strike rate. He pitched to a 3.53 xFIP with an excellent 0.95 WHIP and a 2.54 ERA. He allowed just a 33.3% hard-hit rate and a 2.91% home run rate, numbers that were well down from the 42.7% hard-hit rate that was his lone flaw the year before. Javier has been dynamite since joining the Astros pitching staff, first out of the pen and now as a full-fledged member of the rotation, he is a dynamite option against this Tigers lineup and is absurdly priced at just $8,100 on the DraftKings slate, where pitching is essentially free today. Javier should be ludicrously popular at that price tag, he is yet another pitcher who can be paired with Rodriguez for a total spend between $12,000-$13,000 at pitcher, allowing gamers to load up bats on the site. On FanDuel, Javier costs a sensible $10,000 which does nothing to tarnish the play, he is an excellent option. The Tigers lineup leaves much to be desired, lefty Kerry Carpenter is the prime bat for power, while Austin Meadows, Riley Greene, and Spencer Torkelson all have expectations of offensive production, if not the reality.
Hard luck lefty Eduardo Rodriguez is taking on the Astros in a very difficult matchup. Rodriguez missed much of last year and has been exceedingly unlucky throughout his career, leading to a widespread belief that he is not a talented starter. This is false. The pitcher is very good, he is just in a terrible spot this afternoon against a lethal lineup. Rodriguez costs just $6,800 on DraftKings and $8,100 on FanDuel, the risk-embracing lunatic who plays the dual Rodriguez in Texas pitcher pairing for a total of just $10,800 could win themselves a GPP today, but that is an extraordinarily unlikely scenario. The much more probable outcome is that the Astros get to Rodriguez for a few runs while he covers five innings, and then Houston pounds on the Detroit bullpen. Jeremy Pena hit 22 home runs and stole 11 bases as a rookie, immediately taking over for the departed Carlos Corrrea last year, he is a great leadoff option in this spot. Pena hits in front of Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez, two excellent power bats who drive in runs and can also provide correlated scoring with Jose Abreu and Kyle Tucker. Alvarez and Tucker lose no quality against same-handed pitching, they should never be skipped just because a lefty is on the mound. Later bats int he lineup include Chas McCormick, whose name you knew would be mentioned if you’ve been here before (if not, welcome!), and a few spare parts. The top-six projected hitters are the premium quality in the Houston batting order, they should be the focus and their pricing may render them low-owned on a slate with plenty of cheap pitching to help afford them.
Play: the hell out of Cristian Javier on DraftKings and a lot of him on FanDuel, Astros stacks, two or three total dice roll Eduardo Rodriguez shares for the crazies.
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