The Tuesday evening MLB DFS Main Slate gets started at the usual 7:05 ET time on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, and it features several spots to watch for potential weather concerns through the middle of the country. The games in Kansas City, St. Louis, Texas, and Cincinnati all have light weather warnings at the moment, they should be re-checked for current forecasts closer to lock. Pitchers typically become less playable in games that will be facing delays but will play, while bats can still be fully deployed, all based on individual risk tolerance. Tonight’s slate also features a litany of lefties, with several teams rolling out some back-of-the-rotation starters, while other teams return to the top of their rotations thanks to scheduling differences. This creates the first truly spread-out dynamic slate of the season, which should create opportunities galore for MLB DFS lineup construction.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to any news for changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Breakdown – 4/4/23
Philadelphia Phillies (+139/3.86) @ New York Yankees (-152/4.74)
The brotherly battle in the Bronx continues on Tuesday night, with the Philadelphia Phillies in town to play their neighboring New York Yankees. Both teams are bringing less quality to the mound than one typically expects from these organizations tonight. The Phillies will be facing Domingo German, who has been a serviceable option at around replacement level for the Yankees when filling in for absent members of the team’s actual rotation. German made 14 starts last season, throwing 72.1 innings overall and pitching to a 19.5% strikeout rate. The limited righty had a 4.33 xFIP under his 3.61 ERA, somewhat revealing his true nature as a pitcher. In 2021, German’s xFIP was 4.27 to a 4.58 ERA across 98.1 innings and 18 starts, so we have a fair expectation for that mid-fours range. German induced an 11.3% swinging-strike rate but did not throw enough called strikes, he also allowed a 16.7-degree average launch angle with a 40.6% hard-hit rate, leading to a 3.69% home run rate that could play to the Phillies’ power tonight. German is barely in play at $7,700 on DraftKings, there are simply better options available, but in the largest field tournaments, one or two of 150 lineups could be thrown his way. The Philadelphia bats are far more interesting. Getting to shares of Phillies bats could be an interesting angle into this slate if the public is respecting German too much. Star shortstop Trea Turner costs $5,800 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel, which should suppress his positional popularity somewhat, but he is easily worth the salary. Turner hit 21 home runs and created runs 28% better than average last season. He begins a run of four hitters, himself, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, and Darick Hall who were all in that range for run creation last season (the first two were also 28% above average, and Hall was at 20%). Outfielder Nick Castellanos had a disappointing year, but he has more than enough track record to warrant faith. Castellanos slashed .263/.305/.389 with a 94 WRC+ and just 13 home runs last year, he hit 34 home runs and had a WRC+ 40% above average the year before. The bottom of Philadelphia’s lineup is filled with quality as well, all of Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh are playable as pieces of Philadelphia stacks at low cost and probably very little popularity.
On the other side, the Phillies are starting self-declared “Swiss Army Knife” pitcher Matt Strahm, who fills a hybrid role between starting and the bullpen. Strahm is not an option for MLB DFS pitching today, despite quality bullpen numbers last season. Strahm threw 44.2 innings out of the pen, posting a 4.02 xFIP with a 3.83 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate, but the likely depth of start and the matchup are brutal. Even at $5,500 on DraftKings as a bargain bin SP2, it is difficult to see Strahm making value. The Yankees stack, on the other hand, should be very much in play once again. DJ LeMahieu came through with several big hits last night after being featured in this space briefly, although his first-inning “triple” benefitted from what was initially called an error. Still, LeMahieu is an excellent correlation piece with mashers like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, whose Sunday home run is just landing at Newark Airport. Third baseman Josh Donaldson is no one’s favorite, but he displayed some of his lingering power over the weekend and the ball still travels when he makes contact. Donaldson is a flawed but playable cheap piece in the Yankees lineup. First baseman Anthony Rizzo got on the board with a home run last night, the left-hander has hit 30 or more home run five times since the 2014 season, and the years in which he missed that mark he hit 25, 27, and 11 in the 58-game 2020 season. Rizzo is a great play in the heart of the Yankees lineup. Rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe has footspeed to burn, he is in play from the bottom of the lineup as a solid wraparound option with individual upside as well. Gleyber Torres and Oswaldo Cabrera or whichever of the moving parts is in the lineup can also be deployed in stacks. Jose Trevino is the defense-only catcher on this squad, but if Kyle Higashioka is in the lineup tonight, the Yankees pick up an additional playable bat.
Play: Yankees stacks, Phillies stacks
Update Notes: The Phillies confirmed lineup features Bohm hitting third, with JT Realmuto sitting for Garrett Stubbs. The Phillies are lefty-heavy with Jake Cave also in the lineup late. The Yankees are hitting Gleyber Torres third between Judge and Stanton, making him very interesting today in place of Anthony Rizzo. The team is also starting Aaron Hicks and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, as well as Kyle Higashioka. The catcher is the primary play, Kiner-Falefa is not much of an option on offense (or defense, didn’t we agree not to play this guy anymore, Aaron Boone?) and Hicks has struggled mightily in recent years. Hicks does still have a high on-base acumen and sees a lot of pitches, he is not out of play here.
Tampa Bay Rays (-162/5.10) @ Washington Nationals (+149/4.01)
Another pair of low-rent pitchers will be taking the hill for their respective teams in Washington D.C. tonight, as the Rays continue to battle the weak Nationals. Tampa Bay is the focus in this matchup once again, the team is facing veteran righty Chad Kuhl, who had a 17.8% strikeout rate over his 137 innings and 27 starts last season. Kuhl pitched to a 4.78 xFIP and a 5.72 ERA, allowing a 4.05% home run rate on a 44.6% hard-hit percentage. This is a pitcher who should be targeted aggressively with bats. The Rays projected lineup is likely to be very popular against a tomato-can pitcher like Kuhl. The lineup is strong from top to bottom, and the Rays are lethal at mixing and matching starters to best align the batting order for success. The obvious names in the lineup include Brandon Lowe, who is sporting a monster mark in our home run model today. Lowe has immense power but he will likely be in a great number of lineups this evening. The second base slugger follows excellent correlation piece Yandy Diaz, who costs just $4,200 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel and has eligibility at both infield corners on both sites. Star outfielder Randy Arozarena is an excellent source of power and speed, while shortstop Wander Franco is beginning to find his way as the star everyone expected. Franco hits from both sides of the plate in the middle of the lineup and costs just $4,900 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel, he should be in most Rays stacks tonight but the public may not include him as frequently as they should. Following Franco, the lineup becomes somewhat more flexible, but the projected version includes Luke Raley, who homered from the left side last night, as well as dynamic Jose Siri, who can provide a mix of power and speed at a very inexpensive price. Taylor Walls and others from the end of the order are more mix-and-match pieces to offset cost and popularity, but none are flat-out bad.
The Nationals’ weak lineup will be facing southpaw Josh Fleming, who comes in at just $6,100 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. The matchup for Fleming is excellent, the Nationals will be a punching bag for pitching all season, but Fleming’s true upside is in question. The lefty has filled a hybrid role for the Rays and has dealt with injury in his career to date. Last year, Fleming made 10 appearances and three starts, pitching a total of just 35 innings. The year before, he made 11 starts and pitched in 26 total games, putting up 104.1 innings. In the larger 2021 sample, Fleming had just a 14.5% strikeout rate with a 4.36 xFIP and a 5.09 ERA. He was good at limiting opposing power that season, allowing just a 2.46% home run rate and a 35% hard-hit rate, but last year’s small sample saw him give up a 43.3% hard-hit rate, though he yielded just a 2.96% home run mark. Fleming is in play for a small handful of SP2 shares on DraftKings, he is expected to be a full-fledged starter in this outing, but it is somewhat difficult to see him getting to a quality start and truly making value on the blue site, where he costs $7,000. A share or two in the largest of tournaments would not be a mistake, on innings and outs speculation alone, there will be some MLB DFS scoring available. The Nationals’ bats are difficult to justify, but with the amount of contact that Fleming may allow, they could have a minor touch of potential. Lane Thomas slashed .241/.301/.404 with 17 home runs in 548 plate appearances last year, if he is hitting atop the lineup he can be deployed in stacks. Thomas would click into place alongside Joey Meneses, Jeimer Candelario, and catcher Keibert Ruiz. Sneaky outfielder Stone Garrett is an interesting option if he is in the lineup. Garrett hit four home runs in 84 plate appearances in a cup of coffee last season, posting a 9.4% barrel rate and a 49.1% hard-hit mark in the small sample. Garrett is second in the home run model for the Nationals today.
Play: Tampa Bay stacks (but they will be popular), very minor shares of Fleming, even fewer Nationals bats
Update Notes: No significant notes.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+133/3.92) @ Boston Red Sox (-145/4.68)
The frisky Pirates lineup came through with a fair amount of power last night, and they look to be in play once again this evening. The Pirates are facing right-handed veteran Nick Pivetta, who is a quality option as a starter in his own right. Pivetta costs $8,500 on DraftKings and the same price across town. The righty threw 179.2 innings in 2022, striking out 22.6% of opposing hitters and pitching to a 4.26 xFIP with a 4.56 ERA, meaning he was slightly unlucky in his earned-run mark. While Pivetta’s strikeout rate dipped from 26.5% year-over-year, the rest of his numbers were very consistent, he is firmly in the mid-range of pitchers in MLB. With the Pirates bats in play, both sides of this equation can be rolled out in a variety of tournament lineups. On the Pirates side, Oneil Cruz has been a popular but expensive option to start the season, while outfield star Bryan Reynolds has been hitting everything in sight to start his season. Reynolds is an excellent option who hit 51 home runs combined over 2021 and 2022. That dynamic duo sits in front of a solid power core of Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, and Canaan Smith-Njigba, who delivered a midrange game after a mention here yesterday. Ke’Bryan Hayes slots into the middle of the lineup at a very low price across the industry, his long-term pedigree still warrants faith. Lefty masher Jack Suwinski was today’s home run call for the Pirates, he sports a 7.86 mark in our home run model, trailing only Cruz’s 10.08 on this team. Suwinski hit 19 home runs in just 372 plate appearances with a 12.2% barrel rate last year. Ji-Hwan Bae was a first-weekend pickup in season-long leagues, but he is sitting at .200/.273/.300 with a 36.4% strikeout rate after his 11 plate appearances, which should keep the public off of him again. Getting to the interesting player when the public backs away makes sense in MLB DFS tournaments.
The Red Sox draw Roansy Contreras in this matchup. The righty threw 95 innings in 18 starts last season, striking out 21.1% of opposing hitters while sporting a 4.48 xFIP and a 3.79 ERA. The difference in the expected FIP number, which tells us what a pitcher truly is, and the better ERA is telling about where Contreras is at this point in his career. The pitcher is talented and can put up a good start against this Boston team, but he is likely not fully in place. Contreras walked 9.6% of hitters and had a 1.27 WHIP last year, and he allowed an 11% barrel rate with a 45.9% hard-hit percentage, which makes it somewhat remarkable that his home run rate was only 3.19%. At just $6,900 on DraftKings, the righty is not entirely off the board in large field tournaments, at $8,400 on FanDuel he is best skipped. The Red Sox bats should be under-owned on this slate given the public’s misperceptions about Contreras’ quality. Boston stacks should include Alex Verdugo as a strong correlation piece up top, as well as the always-excellent Rafael Devers, who came through for a large portion of the field as a popular play last night. Veteran Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida, who hit his first MLB home run last night, are both in play, as are Adam Duvall and Triston Casas. Late in the lineup, Enrique Hernandez was today’s home run pick from the Red Sox, he will be extremely low-owned and he is inexpensive from site to site. On FanDuel, Hernandez sports shortstop and outfield eligibility.
Play: Red Sox stacks, Pirates stacks, minor Pivetta investment, very minor to no Contreras
Update Notes: The confirmed Pirates lineup features slugger Ji-Man Choi in the five spot, he is in play where stacking against Pivetta. Smith-Njigba drops to the seven spot but remains an option, as does Ji-Hwan Bae in the eight spot. Jack Suwinski is not in the lineup, which takes a power bat away. The Red Sox are starting Yu Chang in the nine spot and have Reese McGuire catching this evening, both are afterthoughts for MLB DFS.
New York Mets (-145/4.41) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+133/3.69)
The Mets are in Milwaukee for their return to the Main Slate, facing lefty starter Wade Miley, who does not represent a major challenge for a lineup with this much quality. Miley is not in play as a starter, even at the discounted $6,600 on FanDuel. The soft-tossing southpaw posted just a 17.6% strikeout rate in his eight starts and 37 innings last season and had an 18.1% rate across a full 163 innings in 28 starts the year before. While he does not yield a massive amount of home run upside, there should be plenty of opportunity to sequence, run, and create runs against this starter. The Mets loaded lineup features an excellent mix of hit tools, on-base skills, and speed that should play perfectly for that purpose. Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and Francisco Lindor all more than meet that description, and each can provide individual upside as well as correlated scoring. Miley is not so good at avoiding home runs as to render Lindor a non-threat, the shortstop can homer off of anyone in baseball. Speaking of which, slugger Pete Alonso follows that trio of hitters in the cleanup role. Alonso leads the Mets with an 8.09 in our home run model and has more homers than anyone in baseball since his debut season. Mark Canha and Jeff McNeil fit very much into the hit-and-sequence theme for tonight, while Eduardo Escobar can provide some sneaky late-lineup pop. Aging outfielder Tommy Pham homered in his last start, he hit 17 last year despite a diminished role and reduced talent quality, but if he is in the lineup he can be deployed in some shares of Mets stacks.
With dominant righty Max Scherzer on the hill, it is difficult to justify getting to stacks of Brewers bats today. Scherzer is one of baseball’s apex predators on the mound, he sported a 30.6% strikeout rate over 145.1 innings last year and a massive 34.1% rate in 179.1 innings the year before. The elite righty had a 0.91 WHIP, a 3.23 xFIP, and a 2.29 ERA last year, he is not overly vulnerable to power and should carve up a Brewers lineup that features plenty of available strikeouts. Scherzer is one of the top projected pitchers on the board, even in a matchup against a talented squad he should be in play at his high pricing on both sites. If inclined to play Brewers, one should focus on the core bats including Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker, Willy Adames, and Rowdy Tellez.
Play: Mets stacks and Max.
Update Notes: The Mets have Pham hitting fifth, which gives him a minor boost. The Brewers are starting Brice Turang in the eight spot and Brian Anderson is hitting seventh, the top of the lineup is as-expected, they remain a low-end option against Scherzer.
Toronto Blue Jays (-165/5.69) @ Kansas City Royals (+151/4.43)
The Blue Jays have the day’s highest implied run total in an excellent spot against weak lefty Kris Bubic. The southpaw is not in play as a pitcher in this, or basically any, matchup. Bubic threw 129 innings in 27 starts last season, pitching to a 4.52 xFIP and a 5.58 ERA with just an 18.7% strikeout rate. Bubic yielded a 44.9% hard-hit rate and a 3.07% home run rate last year, and he had similarly bad marks across the board in 2021. The Blue Jays lineup includes today’s overall home run pick, Matt Chapman, who has been mentioned for his underappreciated upside several times in this space already this season. Chapman still has a tremendous contact profile and hit 27 home runs last year, rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. From the top of the Toronto lineup, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are both above the “magic number” in our home run model, while Bo Bichette and Daulton Varsho drop just below at 9.30 and 9.80. All four sluggers are in play, with Varsho potentially getting slightly less attention from the field despite his cheap $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel. Catcher Alejandro Kirk slashed .285/.372/.415 and created runs 29% better than average last season, making him one of the better catcher bats in baseball. The Blue Jays should be one of the more popular teams of the night with that run total and this obvious target on the mound, differentiating combinations with late lineup options like Whit Merrifield and Santiago Espinal is a smart approach to lineup construction on this slate.
An equally good matchup awaits the power-packed Royals on this slate. Kansas City is facing Toronto’s own flawed lefty, Yusei Kickuchi, who reclaimed a high-end strikeout rate at 27.3% across his 100.2 innings last season. Kikuchi improved that mark from 24.5% the year before, but he posted a 4.07 xFIP and a 5.19 ERA and his longtime home run issues worsened. Kikuchi allowed an already high 4.05% home run rate in 2021, yielding a massive 47% hard-hit rate and an 11% mark for barrels. The lefty’s hard-hit rate went up but only by 0.1 percentage points to 47.1%. Unfortunately for Toronto, the same cannot be said about his barrel rate, which spiked to a ridiculous 14.8% while his home run rate shot up by more than a point to 5.07%. That is an unsustainable amount of power to allow, the Royals should be able to capitalize and they have quality right-handed power to throw at Kikuchi. Bobby Witt Jr. should need no introduction by now, but the crowd may not be as attuned to Edward Olivares just yet. The young outfielder is hitting second in the confirmed lineup, he homered off of a lefty over the weekend and he has power and speed upside that should be under-owned at just $3,800 on DraftKings and an excellent $2,300 on FanDuel. Franmil Reyes is slotted into the cleanup spot today, Reyes managed just 14 home runs last season, but he mashed 30 in just 466 plate appearances in 2021, and he maintained an excellent contact profile last year with an 11.3% barrel rate and a 45.8% hard-hit percentage. Salvador Perez sat out last night but he is hitting third in front of Reyes this evening. Perez always makes for a fantastic home run pick from this team, but his 10.08 mark in our model is slightly behind the 10.85 held by Reyes to lead the team. The confirmed lineup trails off somewhat behind that excellent group, with Matt Duffy occupying the fifth spot in the lineup. Duffy made 247 plate appearances and had a .061 ISO and two home runs last year. Veterans Hunter Dozier and Jackie Bradley Jr. join Nate Eaton and Nicky Lopez at the bottom of the lineup, keeping the focus up top for Royals stacks, though the group does provide significant salary and popularity offset, and they cover multiple positions across both sites.
Play: Blue Jays stacks, Royals top of the lineup stacks
Update Notes: No significant notes.
Atlanta Braves (+119/4.76) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-129/5.35)
The Braves lead the way in our Power Index once again today. The team is facing southpaw Steven Matz, a quality starter who allows a fair amount of premium contact but could otherwise suppress the upside of this lineup when it comes to sequencing and scoring. Matz yielded a 3.86% home run rate on a 9.2% barrel mark last year but that came in just a 48-inning sample over 10 starts. He was better in 2021 with a 2.78% mark across a larger 150.2-inning sample the year before. The starter struck out 26.1% and walked just 4.8% in his short 2022, but was a 22.3% strikeout option with a 6.6% walk rate the year before. The biggest issue for the starter is the prodigious right-handed power the Braves lineup sports. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley are the obvious names to target, but the Braves feature additional excellent bats from the right side, including catchers Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud, either backstop would be playable, if both are in the lineup both may be playable. Marcell Ozuna still has pop in his bat despite anything else going on with him, and switch-hitting Ozzie Albies gets most of his power as a right-handed hitter against a lefty, making this an ideal situation for the second baseman. Perhaps the best sleeper on the board in Atlanta, however, is left-handed first baseman Matt Olson, who has titanic power against any starter, and who has thrived against same-handed pitching. For his career, Olson sports a .255/.351/.523 triple-slash with a .268 ISO and a 136 WRC+ against righties, but he maintains a very high level with a .240/.325/466 slash and a .225 ISO with a 117 WRC+ against fellow southpaws. Olson has hit 51 of his 178 career home runs (29%) against lefties.
The equally talented Cardinals lineup is facing a left-handed rookie in Braves starter Dylan Dodd. If it seems like Atlanta has an endless supply of talented young arms to call upon, that’s because it is entirely true. This is a ludicrously deep farm system lush with excellent upside arms. Dodd jumped up from the high-A level to make one start in AAA last season, spending the bulk of his time between high-A and AA ball. The lefty had a 28.4% strikeout rate over his 46.1-inning sample in AA, pitching to a 3.87 xFIP and yielding just three home runs. Dodd’s accelerated ascension has him lowe-ranked than one might expect on prospect boards, but his talent seems real and he had a dominant Spring. While all of this is good, it is still somewhat difficult to recommend the young starter for use against a lineup like the Cardinals. At $5,300 on DraftKings, a few shots as a bargain-bin arm may be worthwhile, Dodd does have strikeout acumen, but the Cardinals are difficult to sit down. The projected lineup against the young lefty sees Tommy Edman jump to the leadoff role with Tyler O’Neill sliding up to the two-spot. The duo provides an excellent mix of speed (Edman) and power (O’Neill) with each having some upside in what the other does better; Edman can hit a home run, he had 13 last year and O’Neill can swipe a bag, he had 14 last year. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are fixtures in this lineup that need no recommendation in this space to make them excellent plays on any slate. They are followed by Willson Contreras, one of the league’s top-hitting catchers, who slashed .243/.349/.466 with 22 home runs in 487 plate appearances last season. Young Jordan Walker is inexpensive in the back half of the lineup while Juan Yepez could provide very sneaky power against a left-handed starter. Yepez hit 12 home runs in just 274 opportunities at the Big League level last season, barreling the ball 9.2% of the time. Left-handed Brendan Donovan should still be in the lineup but he will be a later piece in this matchup, while Dylan Carlson is another slightly interesting name if he appears at the end of the lineup. Carlson his just eight home runs in 488 tries last year, but he had 18 in his 619 plate appearances in 2021.
Play: Braves stacks, Cardinals stacks, Matz and Dodd shares at your own risk
Update Notes: d’Arnaud and Murphy are both in the lineup, a dual-catcher combo is playable where possible, but not necessarily at the expense of Matt Olson. Kevin Pillar is in the nine spot for the Braves adding an interesting speedy wraparound play to the bottom of the lineup. The Cardinals lineup sees a minor surprise with Carlson leaping to second behind Edman and O’Neill remaining in the sixth spot in the batting order, both are options when stacking Cardinals.
Baltimore Orioles (+117/4.07) @ Texas Rangers (-127/4.53)
Another game, another left-handed starter, this time veteran Andrew Heaney is the focus as he takes the hill for Texas. The veteran southpaw faces an Orioles lineup that is ripe with right-handed and switch-hitting pop as well as an almost unfair amount of speed. If you haven’t been paying attention, these are no longer the pushover Orioles of recent seasons. Still, Heaney is an excellent starter when he is healthy. He made 14 starts last season, pitching to a premium 35.5% strikeout rate over 72.2 innings. Heaney had a sparkling 2.83 xFIP and a 3.10 ERA while inducing a top-notch 16.8% swinging-strike rate. The lefty did yield power, however, giving up a high 4.52% home run rate on an 11% barrel rate and a 47.7% hard-hit mark. Those track similar to the issues that were highlighted for Yusei Kikuchi, but Heaney is a far better pitcher who strikes out many more and just happens to bump into the occasional long ball, much like Gerrit Cole, not that Heaney reaches those heights. Taking a both-sides position on Heaney and the Orioles seems like a good idea, the starter should be owned at $8,900 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel, but if he renders the Orioles low-owned they could be a great tournament play. Baltimore’s lineup features two column favorites in Ryan Mountcastle and Jorge Mateo, who have been featured several times already, in addition to the excellent multi-tooled Cedric Mullins, catcher Adley Rutschman, and Anthony Santander. Rookie infielder Gunnar Henderson made 132 plate appearances last year, slashing .259/.348/.440 with four home runs while creating runs 25% better than average. He is out to a slow start at just .167/.444/.417 with one home run, if the field moves away it is an opportunity on which sharp owners can capitalize in Orioles stacks. Austin Hays made 582 plate appearances last season, hitting 16 home runs after hitting 22 in 529 opportunities the year before. Hays is something of a forgotten piece in Orioles lineups, despite his daily presence. If he is in the middle of the batting order and not drawing attention, there is a nice mid-range upside in Hays’ bat.
Veteran Kyle Gibson takes the mound for Baltimore tonight. Gibson posts consistent low-end quality, he is “fine” as a starter but he is more of a real-life third or fourth starter than he is an asset for MLB DFS purposes. The righty struck out 20.1% of opposing hitters over 167.2 innings in 31 starts last year and 20.6% in 182 innings the season before. He had a 3.94 xFIP last year, improving on the 4.14 xFIP from 2021. Gibson does not allow an overwhelming amount of power, but he is certainly hittable for a team like the Rangers. Texas sports an excellent middle infield duo with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, who hit 26 and 33 home runs last year respectively. Semien hit 45 the year before, he is an underappreciated player most days at second base and he checks in below the $5,000 mark on DraftKings today. With Seager coming in at $4,500, the duo is far too cheap for their upside. Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia have both been featured in this space, Garcia has both power and speed, he stole 25 bases in addition to his 27 home runs last year, but he is another hitter at a discount for Texas tonight. The bottom of the lineup includes some power in the form of Brad Miller and Mitch Garver, assuming they are playing tonight. Veteran outfielders Robbie Grossman and Bubba Thompson are both cheap but they are limited. Third baseman Josh Jung will see even more opportunity if Josh Smith has to go to the IL after being hit in the face with a pitch last night. Jung is out to a .214/.313/.429 start with one home run and a 31.3% strikeout rate over his first few games of the season. He struck out in 38.2% of his 102 plate appearances last season, which is the key flaw preventing him from being a much better hitter. There is “any given slate” upside in the young corner infielder though.
Play: Andrew Heaney, Orioles stacks, Rangers stacks
Update Notes: Ezequiel Duran is getting another start for the Rangers, he is batting ninth and brings an intriguing blend of power and speed for the minimum price with multi-position eligibility on both sites. The Orioles have yet to confirm their lineup as of 4:50 ET.
Detroit Tigers (+236/2.88) @ Houston Astros (-264/4.73)
The Tigers’ already inept offense is slated to be shut down for the evening by excellent lefty starter Framber Valdez. While anything can happen in baseball, Valdez’s elite combination of mid-range strikeout stuff and an incredible ability to induce ground balls and limit power should keep the Tigers very much in check. Valdez allowed just a 1.33% home run rate last season and a 2.10% rate the year before. Those marks came on the back of negative-degree average launch angles, meaning hitters just drive the ball directly into the ground against this starter. In 2022, Valdez yielded a -3.6-degree average launch angle, that mark was even better at -5.5 the year before. There is no reason to stack Tigers tonight.
The Astros, on the other hand, will be facing Matt Manning, which should benefit their ability to sequence and drive the ball, if not their home run hitting. Manning made 12 starts last season, throwing 63 innings and posting just an 18.3% strikeout rate, this a year after he had just a 14.8% mark over 85.1 innings and 18 starts. Manning had a 4.37 xFIP that belies his 3.43 ERA from last season, though he was moderately effective in limiting hard hits. Manning had just a 36.9% hard-hit rate and a 2.28% home run rate allowed last year. The average price of the first five hitters in the Astros’ projected lineup on DraftKings is $5,100 today, making them difficult to combine in full stacks. Fortunately, there are extremely inexpensive viable options below the group of Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu, and Kyle Tucker. Any of those players can be grabbed at an open position, they should be combined as frequently as possible, but utilizing them along with players like Jake Meyers or Corey Julks from later in the batting order is a viable approach to filling out an Astros stack. Meyers costs just $2,200 on DraftKings and $2,000 on FanDuel. He hit six home runs in 163 plate appearances in 2021 but just one in 160 tries last year. Depending on the final form of the bottom of the batting order, there should be viable pieces to offset the cost and popularity of the first five hitters.
Play: Framber Valdez & Astros stacks
Update Notes: No significant notes.
Los Angeles Angels (+151/3.33) @ Seattle Mariners (-165/4.27)
Nine games into the slate, we find another elite right-handed starting pitching option in the form of Luis Castillo. The Mariners ace made 25 starts and threw 150.1 innings last year, striking out 27.2% and pitching to a sterling 3.23 xFIP and a 2.99 ERA. Castillo allowed just a 2.11% home run rate last year and he was at a 2.37% mark in the bandbox in Cincinnati the season before. The righty had a 1.08 WHIP and an 11.7% swinging-strike rate in the 2022 season, he is a premium option on this slate and he is very much in play across the industry. At $9,500 on DraftKings, Castillo should be in a significant number of public lineups. As a $10,100 option, his popularity may decrease on the blue site, but he is very much worth the investment. Castillo faces an Angels lineup that has several superstars and a few nice pieces, but all of their top-end hitters have aggressive strikeout rates. It would not be a mistake to draw a few hedge stacks that include Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward, and Hunter Renfroe in this contest, but Castillo is the better side to take. The Angels will be very unpopular and taking up a position against a large swath of the field is always a viable large tournament play, but there is a very narrow window of opportunity. Brandon Drury and Jake Lamb are both playable in this lineup as well, Lamb is one of two left-handed hitters in the Angels projected lineup.
Southpaw Jose Suarez checks in at a cheap $7,300 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel but he is pushing Mariners bats up to a fairly high ranking on our Power Index today. Suarez is a mid-range replacement-level starter who sported a 22.3% strikeout rate in 109 innings last season and a 20.6% rate over 14 starts and 98.1 innings in 2021. He is capable and he has a track record of being able to suppress power to some degree, but the Mariners’ right-handed lineup and fantastic contact profiles from last year are overpowering him in models today. Seattle starts things off with superstar Julio Rodriguez who launched 28 rookie home runs last season. Ty France is the only hitter in the top half of the lineup who did not have a monster barrel rate last season, but he still managed to drive 20 balls out of the park, keeping him in play for power, France is also an excellent correlation piece with his hit tool and on-base acumen. In addition to Rodriguez’s 13.1% barrel rate last year, Teoscar Hernandez (15%), Eugenio Suarez (14.8%), and Cal Raleigh (15.4) all had extreme barrel marks last season. That trio all hit from the right side (Raleigh is a switch-hitter) and drives the ball, they make for a fine stack and can also be deployed as one-offs. At the bottom of the projected lineup, Tom Murphy is somewhat interesting, Murphy has long had tremendous power, but he struggles to make contact against advanced pitching. Last season he made just 42 plate appearances, hitting one home run, but he made 325 appearances with 11 long balls the year before. Murphy would be a low-cost speculative play at the end of only a few stacks at best.
Play: Luis Castillo, Mariners stacks, limited contrarian Angels stacks
Update Notes: Lineups remain unconfirmed as of 4:50 ET
Cleveland Guardians (-179/4.06) @ Oakland Athletics (+163/3.03)
An elite Cleveland lineup is facing lefty JP Sears tonight, putting another team on the board for stacking purposes. Sears is a young starter who had just a 17.7% strikeout rate over 70 innings in the Majors in 11 starts last year. He had a 4.57 xFIP and a 3.86 ERA while allowing a 43.4% hard-hit rate and a nine percent barrel rate allowed last year, making him a target for a patient Guardians team that loves to sequence, run, and hit the occasional home run. Sears is out of play at $7,300 on FanDuel, he is a very risky SP2 option even at $6,000 on DraftKings. At that price, Sears does not need a monster ceiling score, but he is unlikely to even reach low-cost value, this is an all-Guardians spot. Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, and Jose Ramirez should already be clicked if you read this space regularly and are building a Guardians stack. The Cleveland infield is excellent for run creation, power, and speed, the trio forms a fantastic core on most slates. First baseman Josh Bell hits from both sides of the plate and provides another steady presence in this lineup. Bell made 647 plate appearances in 2022, slashing .266/.362/.422 with 17 home runs while creating runs 23% better than average, all very solid marks. Bell is probably underappreciated by the MLB DFS community, he should not be skipped in stacks. Nor should leadoff man Steven Kwan, who got on base at a .373 clip last year while hitting six home runs and stealing 19 bases in 638 plate appearances. Kwan struck out just 9.4% of the time, an incredibly low number. Against this pitcher, it seems likely that the outfielder will have the ball in play between three and five times this evening. Oscar Gonzalez hit 11 home runs in 382 plate appearances last season, creating runs 22% better than average and striking ou just 19.6% of the time. Catcher Mike Zunino missed much of last season and was bad when he was available, hitting just five home runs while slashing .148/.195/.304 with an 8.6% barrel rate. The year before, Zunino hit 33 home runs in 375 plate appearances and led all players who made more than 350 plate appearances with a 24.3% barrel rate. That put Zunino ahead of even Shohei Ohtani, who had a 22.3% barrel rate in his 639 plate appearances that year. Make no mistake, Zunino is a lethal power threat when he is healthy and in the lineup.
At $10,500 on DraftKings and $11,000 on FanDuel, righty Shane Bieber is expensive, but extremely worthwhile against the Athletics. The low-end lineup found success last night and our home run pick Seth Brown delivered, but Bieber is a very different animal than last night’s soft-tossing Cleveland starter. The electric righty had a 25% strikeout rate over 200 innings in 31 starts last season, pitching to a sterling 2.98 xFIP and a 2.88 ERA. Bieber allowed just a 2.28% home run rate last year and a 2.27% mark in his 96.2 innings in 2021. He is worth every penny of salary across the industry and he should be a very popular SP1 play on DraftKings. If the salary challenges keep the public at bay on the blue site, so much the better. There are myriad inexpensive bats available on this slate, getting to a pitcher of Bieber’s caliber against a lineup as bad as this Oakland roster is the smart play, particularly at less popularity than the play should have. Oakland bats are not in play outside of the most risk-embracing large-field players.
Play: Guardians stacks, Shane Bieber
Update Notes: Lineups remain unconfirmed as of 4:50 ET
Colorado Rockies (+225/2.92) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-251/4.68)
With our word count already cracking the 6,000 mark for this column and some tiring fingers, the last game of the night would, of course, be an interesting spot that needs attention. The Rockies are facing left-handed Dodgers starter Julio Urias, who had a 24.1% strikeout rate and a 2.16 ERA that defied his 3.81 xFIP last season. Urias allowed a 3.34% home run rate, but he was spectacular at limiting hard hits to just 30.2%. This is a sustained trait for the southpaw, Urias yielded just a 30.3% hard-hit rate in 2021 over 185.2 innings while pitching to a 2.96 ERA but a 3.73 xFIP. The weak contact specialist can find strikeout upside, rarely walks too many hitters, and can pitch his way out of trouble. The lefty costs $10,200 on DraftKings and $10,500 on FanDuel. When cast next to similarly priced pitchers, the public may not click on Urias’ name as frequently as they should. Rockies bats are moderately playable in very small contrarian shares. Jurickson Profar, Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron, and Elehuris Montero are strong plays on the right side of the plate, while the Rockies’ lefty bats are somewhat less appealing. Late lineup options include Ezequiel Tovar, who has blazing speed, and Yonathan Daza, a good correlation piece. Regardless, Urias is the far better play.
Colorado will have right-handed veteran German Marquez on the mound this evening. Marquez, much like former teammate Jon Gray, may one day benefit from escaping Coors Field as his home park and see his talent come through in his numbers, but last season he was diminished. The righty posted just a 19.3% strikeout rate, down from his 23.3% mark the year before. He threw 181.2 innings last season, putting up a 4.02 xFIP and an ERA a full run higher. The year before he had a 3.64 xFIP and a 4.40 ERA and induced a 12.1% swinging-strike rate. The dip to just a 10.1% swinging-strike rate and a 25.7% CSW% last season explains the drop in the overall strikeout percentage for Marquez. The righty faces a loaded Dodgers lineup, and he is not in play at $9,100 on DraftKings. At $7,800 on the FanDuel slate, the wildest, most risk-taking, most ready-to-fail MLB DFS gamers could take a few lotto tickets. The much more likely scenario is that the Dodgers get to Marquez fairly early and then pound on a bad Rockies bullpen. Los Angeles sports an embarrassment of riches, Mookie Betts created runs 44% better than average last year, and Freddie Freeman was 57% better; they hit first and second in the Dodgers’ projected lineup. Catcher Will Smith and power-hitting infielder Max Muncy make for an expensive but extremely high-end foursome with those hitters. The pricing of the group on both sites may suppress their overall ownership, while hitters later in the lineup come cheap to offset cost and popularity. JD Martinez hits fewer home runs but can still drive the ball and should be an asset this season for MLB DFS production, given where he is priced and owned on most slates. The projected lineup includes James Outman, who is up to $3,200 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel after starting the season with a .333/.500/.917 triple-slash and one home run over his first 16 plate appearances. Outman is an interesting cheap piece to add to stacks, as are Miguel Vargas and David Peralta.
Play: Julio Urias, Dodgers stacks, very very minor FD investment in German Marquez for the crazies
Update Notes: Lineups remain unconfirmed as of 4:50 ET
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