Monday MLB DFS action returns to the evening, with a 7:05 lock for the 11-game Main Slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The board is fully loaded with several teams looking ripe for power opportunities. This is partially driven by a handful of rookie and replacement-level pitchers taking the mound for their respective squads, as teams are playing their fourth or fifth games of the season. While all rookies are not made equally, and some may thrive today, there should be ample opportunity to exploit a lower-end pitching pool for offensive upside on this slate.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/3/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting valuable doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
An interesting squad occupies the top spot in the power index. The Kansas City Royals have rapidly transitioned from a hit-tool-and-speed-oriented lineup to one that is more focused on a modern power-based approach. The top of the Royals lineup features several aggressive sluggers with high strikeout rates, but premium contact profiles. The team will be facing Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios, who pitched to just a 19.8% strikeout rate with a 3.85% home run rate and a 9.5% barrel rate allowed last season. Berrios has been an above-average pitcher in the past, so there is some degree of risk of him finding his upside and a solid handful of strikeouts, but the situation looks ripe for opportunity at the Royals’ pricing. The top five hitters in the Royals lineup are all above or immediately near the “magic number” of 10 in our home run model. All of Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Sal Perez, and Franmil Reyes are above a 10, while Vinnie Pasquantino checks in at a 9.93. Left-handed Michael Massey and outfielder Edward Olivares could be strong options at lower prices and popularity as well. Massey had a 13% barrel rate over 194 plate appearances last season, he has upside beyond the four home runs he managed in that sample.
The Colorado Rockies are a very interesting team this evening. They will be in Los Angeles facing the Dodgers and young hurler Michael Grove, who is drawing some attention at just $5,600 on the DraftKings slate and $6,900 on the blue site. Grove threw 29.1 innings in the Major Leagues last year, pitching to an 18% strikeout rate and allowing a 4.51% home run in the tiny sample. He had a 4.77 xFIP and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 59.1 innings in AAA ball in addition last year, meaning there may be additional room for strikeouts, but that the pitcher may ultimately need more seasoning. For a veteran lineup such as the one fielded by the Rockies, there could be power-hitting opportunities at low pricing and popularity. CJ Cron has hit three home runs already in the season and looks primed for more with a mark of 12.58 in the home run model, while teammate Kris Bryant checks in just above the 10 mark. They are surrounded by quality bats that are less expensive and easy to stack for correlation, as well as power upside. Charlie Blackmon is on the wrong side of his career, but can still provide left-handed power against a young starter, while Ryan McMahon and Elehuris Montero are both tracking near to 10 in our home run model. The Rockies’ lineup is not good, and they are likely to lose this game, but there is reason to believe in the power potential for tonight, in large-field tournaments Colorado is an interesting contrarian stack.
