NFL DFS Projections – Week 18
The projections below are created from our custom NFL model for DraftKings and FanDuel. DraftKings projections include bonuses for players projected to achieve them in our model. Projections will be updated for any injury/inactive news that breaks prior to lock.
last updated: 3:40 pm ET – 1/7/23 – updated
Notes: Travis Kelce is OUT, Isaiah Pacheco is active. Christian Watson is OUT. Puka Nacua is expected to depart the game after 4 catches and 24 yards that he needs to set rookie receiving records. De’Andre Swift is NOT expected to play. Tyquan Thornton and Jamycal Hasty are out, Randall Cobb is active. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are not listed among Cleveland’s inactives, Hunt was projected for minimal production already, Ford will be added with a very low expectation, Elijah Moore is also active for Cleveland. Taylor Heinicke is OUT, Desmond Ridder will start at QB for Atlanta. Christian Kirk is OUT, Zay Jones and Trevor Lawrence are active. Tee Higgins is confirmed out. Keith Kirkwood is out. Rakim Jarrett is out. Allen Lazard is out. The Chiefs will reportedly let Travis Kelce play long enough to collect the 16 yards he needs for another 1,000-yard season, we are giving him that much in the projections update. Alvin Kamara is OUT. Kendre Miller is active. Juwan Johnson is expected to play. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will reportedly see work this week. Ray-Ray McCloud and Leonard Fournette have been added to projections. Jaylen Waddle & Raheem Mostert are not expected to play. We are currently including George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk with 3 points projected each, they are not expected to play much, if at all, Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are already out, the situation in San Francisco is murky for DFS purposes but any of these 3 stars could score a touchdown before taking a seat. For FanDuel reasons, the FanDuel slate includes 14 games with the Sunday Night Football matchup featuring Buffalo @ Miami this week, DraftKings is running a 13-game traditional slate including only the 1 pm and 4 pm games.
| Player | POS | TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FD | DK$ | DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | QB | SEA | DET | $7,600 | 16.46 | $5,900 | 16.66 |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | SEA | $7,700 | 16.09 | $6,400 | 16.27 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | SEA | $8,800 | 15.60 | $8,200 | 18.92 |
| Will Levis | QB | TEN | MIA | $6,700 | 14.82 | $5,200 | 15.04 |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | TEN | $7,800 | 14.51 | $7,200 | 15.89 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | SEA | $7,500 | 14.07 | $6,900 | 15.76 |
| David Montgomery | RB | DET | SEA | $7,300 | 13.92 | $6,400 | 14.62 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB | MIA | TEN | $6,400 | 13.57 | $5,500 | 13.57 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | SEA | DET | $7,000 | 12.99 | $6,300 | 13.90 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | TEN | $8,000 | 12.25 | $7,900 | 15.53 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | MIA | $6,600 | 12.13 | $6,000 | 13.18 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | SEA | DET | $8,300 | 11.39 | $6,800 | 13.58 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | SEA | $6,000 | 9.57 | $5,600 | 11.23 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | DET | $6,200 | 9.11 | $5,500 | 9.11 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | SEA | $6,500 | 9.01 | $5,700 | 11.57 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | TEN | MIA | $6,100 | 8.55 | $5,900 | 10.67 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | DET | $5,700 | 8.40 | $5,000 | 10.38 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | TEN | $6,300 | 8.07 | $5,800 | 10.50 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | TEN | MIA | $5,200 | 7.69 | $4,900 | 9.01 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | TEN | MIA | $5,600 | 7.44 | $5,300 | 9.37 |
| Tennessee Titans | D | TEN | MIA | $4,500 | 7.05 | $3,100 | 7.05 |
| Miami Dolphins | D | MIA | TEN | $3,800 | 6.70 | $3,200 | 6.70 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | TEN | MIA | $4,900 | 6.56 | $4,200 | 7.99 |
| Detroit Lions | D | DET | SEA | $4,000 | 6.20 | $2,900 | 6.20 |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB | SEA | DET | $5,400 | 5.34 | $6,200 | 6.32 |
| Noah Fant | TE | SEA | DET | $5,100 | 5.31 | $3,500 | 6.66 |
| Seattle Seahawks | D | SEA | DET | $3,500 | 4.95 | $2,800 | 4.95 |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | TEN | MIA | $5,000 | 3.39 | $3,700 | 4.83 |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | MIA | TEN | $4,900 | 3.32 | $3,300 | 4.46 |
| Josh Whyle | TE | TEN | MIA | $4,500 | 3.00 | $2,500 | 3.36 |
| Jaylen Wright | RB | MIA | TEN | $4,900 | 2.89 | $4,200 | 3.31 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | RB | MIA | TEN | $5,000 | 2.75 | $4,300 | 2.84 |
| Tim Patrick | WR | DET | SEA | $4,300 | 2.31 | $3,200 | 3.43 |
| Brock Wright | TE | DET | SEA | $4,600 | 2.26 | $3,200 | 2.76 |
| Treylon Burks | WR | TEN | MIA | $4,300 | 2.12 | $3,100 | 2.94 |
| Jake Bobo | WR | SEA | DET | $4,300 | 2.00 | $3,000 | 2.45 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | DET | SEA | $4,700 | 1.74 | $3,400 | 2.60 |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | TEN | $4,000 | 1.67 | $3,000 | 2.04 |
| Braxton Berrios | WR | MIA | TEN | $4,200 | 1.51 | $3,000 | 1.94 |
| Pharaoh Brown | TE | SEA | DET | $4,000 | 1.43 | $2,500 | 1.77 |
| Nick Vannett | TE | TEN | MIA | $4,400 | 0.92 | $2,500 | 1.11 |
| Kenny McIntosh | RB | SEA | DET | $4,600 | 0.89 | $4,100 | 1.01 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | WR | SEA | DET | $4,200 | 0.74 | $3,000 | 0.90 |
| Julian Hill | TE | MIA | TEN | $4,300 | 0.63 | $2,500 | 0.89 |
| Durham Smythe | TE | MIA | TEN | $4,100 | 0.60 | $2,500 | 1.18 |
| Craig Reynolds | RB | DET | SEA | $4,700 | 0.51 | $4,000 | 0.63 |
| Dee Eskridge | WR | MIA | TEN | $4,200 | 0.48 | $3,000 | 0.60 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | TEN | MIA | $4,000 | 0.43 | $3,000 | 0.74 |
| Parker Hesse | TE | DET | SEA | $4,000 | 0.39 | $2,500 | 0.50 |
| AJ Barner | TE | SEA | DET | $4,200 | 0.39 | $2,500 | 0.73 |
| Allen Robinson II | WR | DET | SEA | $4,000 | 0.26 | $3,000 | 0.58 |
| Julius Chestnut | RB | TEN | MIA | $4,000 | 0.18 | $4,000 | 0.30 |
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