The 10-game MLB DFS slate kicks off at 1:05 on both DraftKings and FanDuel today, keeping us in high-gear mode once again for this game-by-game review. The slate features several pitchers who come up evenly projected, with many teams featuring starters from the middle of their rotation. A few lower-end starters and fill-ins are available to target with bats, which resulted in an evenly distributed Power Index and several similarly projected potential stacking spots. This is truly an MLB DFS slate that can any number of directions.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Breakdown – 4/2/23
Detroit Tigers (+199/3.05) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-220/4.55)
The Tigers will look to close out their series in Tampa Bay with a win against left-handed starter Jeffrey Springs. The southpaw has been effective in a role that has bounced between the bullpen and the starting rotation over the past few years. Springs threw 44.2 innings out of the pen in 2021, posting a massive 35.2% strikeout rate and a 2.95 xFIP. In 2022 he made 25 starts and threw a total of 135.1 innings, pitching to a 3.29 xFIP and a 2.46 ERA. His strikeouts predictably dropped as he stretched out, but he maintained a healthy rate of 26.2% and has upside against a lineup like Detroit’s. Springs costs just $7,800 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel, he is an excellent option on the former and playable on the latter. The Tigers lineup has not come together as quickly as fans or the team would like, premium young bats like Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson did not arrive fully formed like the young players from luckier organizations, but they will be regulars and should come around. Greene made 418 plate appearances last year, hitting just five home runs while slashing .253/.321/.362 and creating runs two percent below average. Torkelson slashed just .203/.285/.319 in his 404 plate appearances, hitting eight home runs and creating runs 24 percent below average. These two can be played along with catcher Eric Haase, who has the team’s strongest home run mark if he is in the lineup. Javier Baez and Matt Vierling are playable in Tigers stacks, while Miguel Cabrera and Jonathan Schoop are options from the bottom of the batting order. There is not much to like here.
The Rays, on the other hand, should have a good opportunity once again, facing lefty Joey Wentz. The starter threw 32.2 innings over seven outings in 2022, pitching to a 4.56 xFIP and just a 20% strikeout rate. Like yesterday’s starter, Wentz did not yield many home runs in the small sample, which is impacting how the Rays’ home run marks are coming through and may keep the ball in the yard. But, as we just saw yesterday, this team can score without hitting many home runs, the lone Rays long ball yesterday came after the team had already chased Spencer Turnbull, they could easily repeat that trick today. Yandy Diaz hit yesterday’s home run and he makes a strong play on DraftKings and FanDuel for just $3,900 and $2,600 from site to site. Diaz is a hitter that is not appreciated enough for his quality hit tool. In 558 plate appearances last year, he slashed .296/.401/.423 while creating runs 46% better than average. Diaz can be stacked at the top of the Rays lineup with shortstop Wander Franco, infielder Isaac Paredes, who hit 20 home runs last season, and toolsy outfielder Randy Arozarena. The bottom of the lineup is strong as well, Harold Ramirez should see a start against the southpaw, he is a strong candidate to drive the ball and also sports a tremendous hit tool and creates runs well above average.
Play: Jeffrey Springs, Rays stacks
San Francisco Giants (+133/3.91) @ New York Yankees (-144/4.68)
The Giants benefitted from some poor defense and a few questionable calls in taking down the Yankees on Saturday after New York got a reasonably good start from Clarke Schmidt. The Yankees will have 25-year-old right-handed replacement starter Jhony Brito on the hill today, as most of the planned rotation have injuries. Brito is making his Major League debut after spending a few years in the Yankees’ system. The righty made 15 starts at AAA last year, pitching to a questionable 4.63 xFIP but sporting a deceptive 3.31 ERA. He struck out just 18.5% of hitters at the highest level of the minor leagues, so there may not be much MLB DFS upside in the starter. The Giants should be able to capitalize on that amount of contact and the inherent lack of high-end talent in Brito’s right arm. The short porch in right field will be calling to several of the Giants’ lefty bats once again, with Joc Pederson leading the way in the home run model for the team. Several Giants are approaching the 10 mark in our home run model, with all of LaMonte Wade Jr., Michael Conforto, Thairo Estrada, Mike Yastrzemski, and David Villar coming in between eight and nine in our home run metric. Any combination of those hitters with Pederson should be a viable approach to stacking. On DraftKings that group of hitters, with Pederson included, has an average salary of just $3,400, the Giants are very cheap for the matchup and ballpark they find themselves in today. The same is true on the FanDuel slate, where no Giants hitter is priced above $3,000. This could be an extreme value situation across the MLB DFS industry today.
On the other side, the loaded Yankees lineup will look to pound on right-handed starter Ross Stripling, who yielded a 9.2% barrel rate but just a 2.24% home run rate in 134.1 innings last year. In 2021, Stripling gave up a 10.2% barrel rate and a 5.34% home run rate, he is targetable for power based on the premium contact he allows, but he is a reasonably talented mid-range starter who could find a handful of strikeouts against this lineup. Stripling is probably not playable at $8,100 on FanDuel, but he might be in the SP2 conversation in small shares at $7,900 on DraftKings. Yankees leadoff man D.J. LeMahieu will look to set the table ahead of sluggers Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo (today’s HR pick), and Giancarlo Stanton. LeMahieu costs $3,800 on DraftKings and just $2,600 on the FanDuel slate, he is an excellent correlation piece. The back end of the lineup should once again include Gleyber Torres at second base and is likely to see Kyle Higashioka get the start behind the plate. The catcher is an option where his position is required. Higashioka came into last year with a bit of power buzz off a hot Spring but faltered when the games began to count, eventually making just 248 plate appearances and hitting 10 home runs. The contact profile is still excellent, however, Higashioka had a 9.8% barrel rate and a 48.1% hard-hit percentage last season, and he costs just $2,100 on DraftKings. Rookie Anthony Volpe is a strong wraparound play, who will look to run every time he is on base this season.
Play: Giants stacks, Yankees stacks.
Baltimore Orioles (+124/4.23) @ Boston Red Sox (-134/4.86)
The Orioles and Red Sox played a wild game that ended with a terrible play with the Red Sox winning 9-8, providing a great deal of MLB DFS scoring yesterday. The Orioles had key bats that were mentioned in this space managed to hit home runs, and the Red Sox came through somewhat unexpectedly. Today’s game could go in similar directions, given the starters taking the mound. The Red Sox will have Tanner Houck, who was originally slated for a featured bullpen role but was forced into the rotation due to injuries. Houck threw 60 innings last season, he was more effective in the bullpen and he struggled through the Spring in a starting role. He had a 22.7% strikeout rate to go with a 3.68 xFIP and 3.15 ERA last season and may have an upside for more strikeouts if he can refine his command. Houck induced a 12.9% swinging-strike rate but had just a 28.6% CSW% last season, his 8.9% walk rate was too high to sustain success as a starter with the low strikeout rate. Baltimore bats to consider include the obvious names atop the lineup like Cedric Mullins II, who homered yesterday and has an excellent power and speed combination. Catcher Adley Rutschman will be popular once again if he is in the lineup for the afternoon game, while Anthony Santander was today’s Baltimore home run pick. Ryan Mountcastle came through after being featured here yesterday, he will mash all season but we may still be slightly ahead of the curve, get to shares today before it is too late. Rookie Gunnar Henderson is an equally interesting bat in the middle of the lineup. He made 132 plate appearances last season in a cup of coffee, slashing .259/.348/.440 while creating runs 25% better than average and hitting four home runs. Henderson is one of the premier prospects in baseball, he has excellent upside for MLB DFS scoring. Ramon Urias, Austin Hays, and column favorite Jorge Mateo are all also playable in Orioles stacks. Mateo stole two more bases yesterday and now has four in his first two games of the season, if he is on he is going.
The Red Sox lineup is seemingly filled with holes in terms of star power, but they may be able to piece together an interesting season in the style of Tampa Bay, with the odd parts that they have in place. Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers are excellent bats, the latter is one of the best hitters in baseball, but they are surrounded by veterans like Justin Turner and Adam Duvall, career journeymen like Rob Refsnyder and Enrique Hernandez, and some young up-and-coming options like rookie Triston Casas. The projected lineup today leaves much to be desired on paper, but they could easily get to Orioles starter Cole Irvin. The southpaw made 30 starts last season, pitching a full 181 innings with a 4.35 xFIP and a 3.98 ERA. Irvin pitches to contact, he had just a 17.3% strikeout rate and a 9.6% swinging-strike rate and he allowed a 3.37% home run rate on a 9.6% barrel rate. The lefty is decent at limiting free passes, he walked just 4.9% last season and 5.5% the year before, but there is far too much contact available. The Red Sox make for an oddball full stack, they may be better deployed as mini-stacks around Verdugo and Devers with a third hitter added, or as one-offs.
Play: Baltimore stacks, Boston small stacks and one-offs
Atlanta Braves (-172/4.88) @ Washington Nationals (+158/3.72)
Yesterday’s home run pick, Matt Olson, may have been a bit chalky for some, but he was easy pickings and came through with two titanic home runs. The Braves led the way in the Power Index yesterday and the team ended up hitting four home runs on their way to a seven-run game. While that was not the highest score of the day and the Braves hitters came up highly owned, they were still very useful for MLB DFS scoring. They should be a targetable lineup again today, with MacKenzie Gore taking the mound for the Nationals. Gore made 13 starts and threw 70 innings last season, putting up a 4.42 xFIP and a 1.47 WHIP. He only had a 23.3% strikeout rate but an awful 12% walk rate while allowing a barrel rate of 9.7% and a 45.4% hard-hit percentage. Gore allows too much premium contact to get through a lineup like Atlanta’s multiple times. The Braves are a strong stack once again. The entire top of the projected lineup is in play as usual, that includes Ronald Acuna Jr., Olson, Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies. The second half of the lineup is almost as good, catcher Sean Murphy should start today after taking the day off on Saturday, Murphy hit 18 home runs and created runs 22% better than average his last year in Oakland, he should see an uptick in Atlanta this year and had several big opportunities in his first game with the team on Opening Day. Michael Harris II is an excellent source of power and speed who tends to go slightly under-owned. Harris somehow costs just $3,900 on DraftKings and $3,800 on FanDuel, take advantage, particularly on DraftKings.
The Nationals lineup is just terrible. They will be facing rookie hurler Jared Shuster, a lefty who posted dominant strikeout numbers in AA last season, posting a 30% strikeout rate across 90.2 AA innings and walking just 6.2% but he did pitch to a 4.72 xFIP and a lower strikeout rate in his 48.2 AAA innings. The southpaw should be able to find his strikeouts and keep a weak lineup in check today, he may be under the radar at just $5,300 on DraftKings, making him a killer SP2 option. Even if he comes up popular he is at a terrific price for his strikeout upside. On the blue site, Shuster costs $8,200, making him much more of a risk and a question mark. Playable Nationals include Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses, and Jeimer Candelario.
Play: Braves stacks, Jared Shuster
Pittsburgh Pirates (+123/4.24) @ Cincinnati Reds (-133/4.85)
The Pirates will be taking on Reds righty Graham Ashcraft, a sophomore starter who made 19 starts last season, throwing 105 innings. Ashcraft managed just a pathetic 15.3% strikeout rate with a 6.5% walk rate last year, posting a 4.09 xFIP with a 4.89 ERA. The difference between those numbers tells us he was somewhat unfortunate, but that will happen with the massive amount of contact that he allows. Ashcraft may be a targetable pitcher, even with a lineup like Pittsburgh’s. However, he did not yield much power, giving up just a 2.37% home run rate on a 4.8% barrel rate. Ashcraft was excellent at keeping the ball down as well, yielding only a 3.8-degree average launch angle with an 86.9 mph average exit velocity. The Pirates will need to string together sequential hitting to beat Ashcraft, which is not their specialty, this puts them on the lower end of stacks, despite the seemingly strong matchup and ballpark upside. The primary playable Pirates include Oniel Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Santana. While lesser-known young players like Canaan Smith-Njigba and Ji-Hwan Bae are interesting options that are unlikely to be popular and come at a fair price. Smith-Njigba costs just $2,500 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel, while Bae comes in at a $2,900 mark on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel.
With Vince Velasquez on the mound in a massive hitters’ park, this could be a day for the Reds’ middling lineup to feast. The righty has been bad with allowing opportunities and yielding the long ball throughout his career, trends that show few signs of stopping. Last season Velasquez threw 75.1 innings in nine starts, pitching to a 4.48 xFIP and a 4.78 ERA while allowing a 3.45% home run rate and giving up a 7.8% walk rate. He struck out just 21.6% of opposing hitters, down from 24.2% in 94.1 innings and 21 starts in 2021. Velasquez allowed an awful 5.52% home run rate that year, yielding barrels at a 12.2% clip that was lower than the 13% he allowed in 2022. This is a pitcher who can be targeted with bats. While the Reds are not loaded with standout stars, they have enough playable talent to warrant stacking. This team was featured in the Power Index, playable options include Jonathan India as a correlation play who has individual upside at second base; T.J. Friedl and Jake Fraley as lefty power bats in the outfield; and Tyler Stephenson behind the plate. That foursome can be joined by Jason Vosler, who checks in with multi-position eligibility between first base and the outfield at just $3,100 on DraftKings and plays third base for $2,300 on FanDuel. Vosler leads the Reds in our home run model today, he is cheap and is unlikely to be popular. Outfielder Wil Myers was mentioned recently in this space as a potential breakout candidate now that he is playing in Cincinnati, today would be a great day for him to justify that belief. Spencer Steer and Will Benson make for another pair of inexpensive unpopular options from late in the lineup.
Play: Reds stacks
New York Mets (-114/4.14) @ Miami Marlins (+105/3.95)
Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers threw 107 innings over 23 starts last year, striking out 22.2% of hitters and walking 9.4%, both marks that were worse than his 2021 numbers. That season, Rogers threw 133 innings in 25 starts and put up a sturdy 28.5% strikeout rate while walking 8.4%. He had a 3.54 xFIP that season and a 4.11 mark last year, while the dip in quality was even uglier in his meaningless surface number; Rogers’s ERA in 2021 was 2.64, it jumped to 5.47 in 2022, this should help illustrate why FIP and xFIP are better indicators, as they focus only on that which the pitcher can control. Rogers is facing an excellent Mets lineup that features speed demon Starling Marte, superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, and home run giant Pete Alonso, among several other playable options. That trio should be rostered frequently in Mets stacks, they can be combined with options like Mark Canha, Jeff McNeil, and Eduardo Escobar, depending on the final form of the Mets lineup. This is an interesting spot, Rogers has upside for better than we saw last year, but this is a very challenging first outing, if he is only bringing his 2022 game to the mound it could be a short day for him and a high-scoring one for the Mets, putting them in the mid-range of stacks.
The Marlins’ upstart lineup is interesting and should be playable in the right spots through the season. Today may not be one of those spots. The team is facing new Mets starter Kodai Senga, who will be making his Major League debut after pitching in Japan’s NPB since he was a 19-year-old in 2021. Senga was an NPB standout and a highly regarded free agent this season, he was universally considered better than Shintaro Fujinami, who was obliterated by the Angels in a spot that was featured in this space yesterday. Senga should have far more upside for strikeouts and general quality and he is suppressing everyone but the standout Marlins. Jorge Soler and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are both above 10 in the home run model, when stacking Marlins they can be combined with Luis Arraez and Garrett Cooper or Avisail Garcia, but it may be best to leave most Marlins stacks on the table, and only grab shares of the two power hitters as one-offs.
Play: Mets stacks, Kodai Senga, minor shares of Marlins premium bats
Minnesota Twins (-148/4.71) @ Kansas City Royals (+136/3.89)
Royals starter Brad Keller is another soft-tossing contact-oriented starter who focuses on keeping the ball down to get his outs. Keller struck out just 16.5% of opposing hitters in 139.2 innings last season but limited their average launch angle to just 6.7 degrees. That kept home runs down at just 2.76%, but Keller was still not good. The righty walked 9.2% of hitters and pitched to a 5.09 ERA and a 4.35 xFIP. Keller was better for strikeouts at 19.6% over 133.2 innings in 2021, but all of his other marks were worse, this is simply not a good pitcher. The question becomes, is he targetable for MLB DFS? With a lack of major home run upside, Keller may be more the type to allow four to six runs without much premium MLB DFS scoring. This comes through somewhat in the Twins power metrics today, there is not one hitter above a 10 in our home run model, with Byron Buxton coming the closest at 9.09. Several Twins bats project well for overall scoring, and they can always get into the bullpen and find easier opportunities for home runs, but this is a team that has been popular early and could go over-owned for the somewhat limited opportunity. Other Twins to consider when looking at this offense include Max Kepler, who hits from the left side of the plate and should be high in the lineup. Kepler hit just nine home runs last year but he had 19 the season before and is a reasonable power bat for just $3,800/$2,500. Shortstop Carlos Correa and second baseman Nick Gordon are players who could produce value against a pitcher of this nature, while sluggers like Trevor Larnach and Joey Gallo may be a bit more lost in the weeds. The Twins are a potential inflection point on this slate.
On the other side, the Royals will be facing Joe Ryan, who has a good chance to deliver quality against this lineup. Ryan made 27 starts last year, throwing 147 innings and striking out 25% of opposing hitters. He walked 7.8% and pitched to a sterling 1.10 WHIP with a 3.55 ERA but a 4.35 xFIP. While not tragic, the difference between the expected pitcher-oriented number and the ERA does indicate that he got slightly lucky in spots. Regardless, Ryan is a talented starter who has upside at his $8,600 DraftKings price. For the $10,000 that he costs on FanDuel, Ryan could be a major make-or-break spot, as he is unlikely to be popular at that price. The righty could be an interesting pay-up play on the blue site today. The Royals will throw quality and power at Ryan, however, with Bobby Witt Jr. leading the way. Witt slashed .254/.294/.428 with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases as a rookie last season, he is a dynamite option on any given slate. M.J. Melendez hit 18 home runs and Sal Perez went deep 23 times last season, they should both be in the lineup with one behind the plate this afternoon, and both can be included for power potential. Vinnie Pasquantino has both power and a quality hit tool, he is an interesting name to watch in the middle of this lineup all season and he can be included in Royals stacks. Rostering him with Melendez and Perez is possible on both sites, as Melendez sports catcher and outfield eligibility, while Perez slots in at catcher and Pasquantino fits into first base. Edward Olivares slashed .286/.333/.410 and created runs 10% better than average last season, he is a sneaky wraparound option if he is at the end of the Royals lineup today.
Play: Joe Ryan, limited Twins stacks, limited Royals
Chicago White Sox (+157/3.50) @ Houston Astros (-171/4.59)
The White Sox are facing quality Astros starter Luis Garcia, a righty who made 28 starts in each of the past two seasons. Garcia posted a 24.4% strikeout rate last season, down from the 26.4% mark at which he pitched the year before. He was slightly better with a 3.82 xFIP compared to the 3.93 he posted in 2021, and many of his other metrics were consistent from season-to-season. Garcia allowed a 3.58% home run rate last year with a 7.8% barrel rate, he is the definition of a good third starter. The righty is facing a tough White Sox lineup that features power and speed from top to bottom. Luis Robert Jr. slashed .284/.319/.426 and created runs 11% better than average while hitting 12 home runs and stealing 11 bases last year, he has 20/20 or better potential this season. Robert hits behind star shortstop Tim Anderson, another premium hit tool plus power and speed asset in the Chicago lineup. Andrew Benintendi follows them, creating a trio that is difficult to strike out and that should set the table for Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, and the platoon at first base all season. Rookie Oscar Colas remains a bargain at $2,100 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel, he is a premium prospect that the sites and the MLB DFS public are sleeping on currently, he will hit, be ahead of the curve.
The elite Astros lineup faces Mike Clevinger, who made 22 starts and threw 114.1 innings in his return last season after missing all of 2021 due to injury. Clevinger has multiple issues off the field and with injury, but he has been a talented starter at this level in the past. He did not show much last season, putting up just an 18.8% strikeout rate and a 4.76 xFIP while allowing a 4.12% home run rate. If that version of Clevinger shows up today the Astros could feast. Houston’s lineup has been a fixture in this space already this season and has been featured by this writer many many times over the past few seasons, very little has changed outside of the absence of Jose Altuve. From the top, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu, and Kyle Tucker are all elite options on most slates. The lefties, Alvarez and Tucker, are both well over the 10 mark in today’s home run model. Chas McCormick should be in the lineup again today, he was mentioned yesterday and warrants attention again at just $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel. McCormick is a premium contact specialist who drives the ball every time he makes contact. He had a 10.2% barrel rate last season and he hit 14 home runs in just 407 plate appearances.
Play: Luis Garcia, Astros stacks, minor shares of White Sox, Chas McCormick value one-off
Toronto Blue Jays (+102/3.98) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-110/4.10)
A quality pitching matchup in St. Louis may render two typically potent offenses somewhat more inert than usual. Southpaw Jordan Montgomery is taking the mound for the Cardinals to face the Blue Jays and righty Chris Bassitt. Montgomery was a changed pitcher after coming to St. Louis from the Yankees. His strikeout rate immediately jumped and he produced several solid MLB DFS scores in the second half of the season. All told, Montgomery made 32 starts, throwing 178.1 innings and chalking up a 21.8% strikeout rate with a sterling 3.43 xFIP and a 3.48 ERA. He was good at limiting power and hard hits, with just a 2.90% home run rate. If “Gumby” is on his game, he could limit the typically terrific Toronto lineup. However, if Montgomery gains steam at his $8,400 price on DraftKings, it may be worth taking out shares of contrarian Blue Jays stacks. George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero make an excellent trio to choose off the top of the lineup, though they are expensive on DraftKings. On the FanDuel slate, all three of those hitters are priced between $3,700 and $4,000, which seems slightly too cheap for their talent. Third baseman Matt Chapman slashed just .229/.324/.433 last year, but he maintained a .204 ISO and hit 27 home runs with a 12.9% barrel rate and a 50.7% hard-hit rate. Chapman is quietly still one of the better home run hitters at the hot corner in all of baseball. He costs just $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel and is a strong option on both sites. The Blue Jays lineup can be stacked from 1-9 in a variety of combinations, using late lineup options like Whit Merrifield in a wraparound capacity, particularly with the uptick in stolen bases this season, is a viable approach to both potential scoring and lineup differentiation.
The Cardinals will be facing tough right-handed starter Chris Bassitt, who has been very good over the past few seasons. Bassitt threw 181.2 innings in 30 starts last year, pitching to a 3.72 xFIP with a 3.42 ERA. He had a 22.4% strikeout rate with a 6.6% walk rate and allowed just a 2.55% home run rate. Bassitt is good at limiting premium contact and keeping the ball in the yard, his home run mark the year before was just 2.35% and he struck out more hitters at 25% that season. The righty has the talent to get through the Cardinals lineup cleanly several times, but there are plenty of threatening bats in the St. Louis lineup. The Cardinals should be treated similarly to the Blue Jays, both teams are in bad spots but should be contrarian because of it, which makes them interesting for MLB DFS tournaments on talent and the “baseball” of it all. Brendan Donovan gives the Cardinals an effective left-handed table-setter ahead of the power of Lars Nootbaar, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O’Neill. Later in the lineup, infielder Nolan Gorman is another lefty who was the darling of the MLB DFS community for a moment with his monster power pedigree. Gorman delivered 14 home runs in just 313 plate appearances last season, he has been something of a forgotten man early and could be a sneaky play on this slate. Rookie Jordan Walker and veteran Tommy Edman should occupy the bottom of the lineup again today, both are in play and both could be used individually, as the bottom of a stack, or as a wraparound play, depending on the final form of the lineup.
Play: Chris Bassitt, Jordan Montgomery, Blue Jays and Cardinals stacks, all with tempered expectations – if you have access to ownership projections, whichever pitcher/team comes up lower owned should be the focus.
Milwaukee Brewers (+107/4.42) @ Chicago Cubs (-116/4.68)
The final game of the slate is an afternoon affair at Wrigley Field between the division rival Brewers and Cubs. This is a game that could feature an interesting amount of offense, with a bit of wind blowing out to left field, and a pair of middling starters. Jameson Taillon allows plenty of contact, he struck out just 20.7% of hitters last year but he walked just 4.4% which keeps opportunities for sequencing somewhat limited. Taillon had a 1.13 WHIP with a 3.79 xFIP and 3.91 ERA over 177.1 innings in 32 starts last year. The righty is a quality veteran who is capable of a ceiling game, but they are few and far between. He allowed a fair amount of power last season, giving up a 3.57% home run rate, and more the year before at 3.98%. Taillon yielded an 8.3% barrel rate and a 14.5-degree average launch angle that could play into the home run narrative in this game. The Brewers have several noteworthy bats, not the least of which is former MVP Christian Yelich, who still has fans in this space. Yelich slashed .252/.355/.383 last year and created runs 11% better than average, but his power has been largely sapped by too many ground balls. He managed 14 home runs and stole 19 bases however, and with more stolen base potential and the idea that he could remember how to hit the ball in the air, there is always a high ceiling for the outfielder. Yelich is joined by Jesse Winker, who should be in the lineup against a righty. Winker is a solid power bat who fell apart in Seattle last season but has a good chance to bounce back in this lineup. He hit just 14 home runs and slashed .219/.344/.344 last year, but the season before he hit 24 home runs while slashing .305/.394/.556 and creating runs 48% better than average. Infielder Willy Adames, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, and outfielder Garrett Mitchell are also intriguing options at the top of the projected lineup. The only right-handed bat in the top five is Adames, which could be problematic for Taillon. The bottom of the lineup falls off somewhat, but Brian Anderson is playable if he is available, as is rookie Brice Turang, who makes a potentially sneaky wraparound option.
The Cubs are facing lefty Eric Lauer, who is something like a left-handed version of Taillon. Lauer struck out 23.8% last year while walking 8.9% and pitching to a 4.08 xFIP with a 3.69 ERA. He allowed a 4.08% home run rate on a 7.9% barrel and 17.7-degree average launch angle, targetable trajectories for Cubs hitters today. Lauer is not bereft of potential, he checks in at just $8,300 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel against a bad Cubs lineup, but this seems like more of an environment for offense today. Chicago’s lineup sports Nico Hoerner, who makes a lot of light contact but managed to hit 10 home runs despite just a 2.6% barrel rate last year. Hoerner stole 20 bases and slashed .281/.327/.410 while creating runs six percent better than average last year, he is an asset as a correlation piece. The second baseman can be paired with his double-play partner Dansby Swanson, as well as switch-hitting outfielder Ian Happ and slugger Patrick Wisdom. Wisdom has eligibility at third base and in the outfield on DraftKings but is just a third baseman on FanDuel. He costs $4,100 and $2,500 respectively, making him a strong salary play on the blue site. In 534 plate appearances in 2022, Wisdom hit 25 home runs with a .220 ISO. In 375 tries in 2021, he hit 28 with a .287 ISO, there is immense power in his bat. Trey Mancini and Cody Bellinger follow in one version of the projected lineup, both would be playable for power in this spot with Mancini being the better but likely more popular option. Catcher Luis Torrens is a potentially very sneaky option for a bit of power upside as well.
Play: Brewers stacks, Cubs stacks, limited shares of pitchers if inclined to risk.
