The Saturday MLB DFS main slate starts up at 2:10 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with 12 games on the board. The loaded slate means that we are in high gear for this review, game by game breakdowns will potentially be presented in shorter form and this article will update as sections are completed. The Power Index and Home Run Picks articles have been published and can be referenced for quick upside information.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Breakdown – 4/1/23
Chicago White Sox (+115/4.08) @ Houston Astros (-125/4.51)
Another high-end matchup between Chicago and Houston is on tap this afternoon. This time, the White Sox will be facing Astros righty Jose Urquidy, a mid-range starter who posted a 19.7% strikeout rate with a 4.32 xFIP to his 3.94 ERA last season. Urquidy allowed a 4.26% home run rate across his 164.1 innings in 2022, and he was at a 4.02% mark in 107 innings the year before, so there is some power potential available for Chicago’s lineup. The White Sox feature talent from top to bottom, with star shortstop Tim Anderson off to a hot start to his season leading the way. Anderson is a true 20/40 threat, with potentially more stolen base upside given the major uptick in running through the season’s first two days. He is followed by Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Benintendi, creating a strong trio that is difficult to strike out at the top of the lineup ahead of masher Eloy Jimenez, who had a big Friday night after being a featured player in yesterday’s home run picks column. Lefty first baseman Gavin Sheets is interesting at just $2,900 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel with eligibility at first base and in the outfield. Sheets had a 15 home run season in 2022, in just 410 plate appearances, he hit 11 in 179 tries the year before. Rookie Oscar Colas is another name to be aware of late in the White Sox lineup, if he plays today Colas is likely to be under-owned at his dead minimum price on the DraftKings slate and $2,200 on the blue site.
On the other side, the Astros are essentially an All-Star team. The pair of lethal lefties in their lineup combine for titanic power upside, both Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are sporting marks above 10 in the home run model again today, they make fine but expensive plays on both sites. The pricing across the lineup for the Astros may impact their public ownership, combining them with value stacks and pitching to roster a full stack is a viable approach to both FanDuel and DraftKings today. From the top of the lineup, Jeremy Pena and Alex Bregman are two obvious names that will stack well with the lefty outfielders, while later in the lineup Chas McCormick is an always under-appreciated asset. McCormick hit 14 home runs in 407 plate appearances while slashing .245/.332/.407 and creating runs 14% better than average last season, and he hit 14 homers in just 320 tries in 2021. McCormick’s 10.2% barrel rate is a strong mark for a player that is barely ever rostered by the MLB DFS community, he is always cheap and unpopular, making him a fantastic tournament option. The Astros are facing righty Lucas Giolito who has had a roller coaster of a career but has plenty of talent to stand out against even a lineup as good as this one. Giolito had a 25.4% strikeout rate with a 3.66 xFIP in 2022, but he allowed too many opportunities with his 1.44 WHIP. If he can keep the Astros off the bases he could have a good day at what will likely be low ownership.
Play: White Sox stacks, Astros stacks, Lucas Giolito if low-owned in tournaments.
Toronto Blue Jays (-127/4.26) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+117/3.83)
The young talented Blue Jays are in St. Louis to face righty Jack Flaherty, an ace-caliber pitcher who has been ravaged by injuries over the last few seasons. Flaherty made just eight starts in 2022 after working his way back for the end of the year, posting a 4.93 xFIP and a 19.8% strikeout rate over his 36 innings. In 2021, Flaherty threw 78.1 innings in only 15 starts, but his numbers were far more indicative of his upside. Flaherty posted a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 3.96 xFIP with a 3.22 ERA that season. If the more contact-oriented version of Flaherty is what we will see today, the Blue Jays could be an under-discussed source of quality across the MLB DFS industry. Toronto’s lineup is packed with recognizable names, with outfielder George Springer leading the way and sporting an excellent mark in the home run model. Springer hit 25 long balls in 2022, following up the 22 that he hit in just 342 tries in 2021. He will be followed by the remaining “next-generation kids”, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both of whom are fantastic options on any slate all season long. Looking down the lineup to catcher Alejandro Kirk could provide upside, both where the position is required and where it is not. Kirk slashed .285/.372/.415 with 14 home runs while creating runs 29% better than average last season, he is playable on FanDuel as well, regardless of positional requirements. Whit Merrifield is also hiding toward the bottom of the Blue Jays lineup. Merrifield slashed .250/.298/.375 with 11 home runs and 16 stolen bases between Kansas City and Toronto last season, but he has more upside than that. Particularly in the speed department, this could be a nice bounce-back season for a good hit tool and speed player with multi-position eligibility.
Toronto will counter Flaherty with a strong right-handed starter of their own in the form of Kevin Gausman. The righty had another excellent season last year, posting a 2.76 xFIP to his 3.35 ERA over 174.2 innings and 31 starts. Gausman was at a 3.28 xFIP with a 29.3% strikeout rate in 2021, the strikeouts dipped only slightly last year, landing at a very good 28.3%. With just a 2.07% home run rate allowed last year on an 8.1% barrel rate and just 89 mph of average exit velocity, Gausman is quite good at limiting offensive upside and power, which could impact the Cardinals’ bats today. St. Louis features a somewhat heavily right-handed lineup, particularly when it comes to their primary power bats. All of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O’Neill are more than capable of going deep on Gausman, but they certainly face longer odds to do so than they would against many other starters. Lefty Lars Nootbaar should be hitting near the top of the lineup, as should left-handed utility man extraordinaire Brendan Donovan. Between the two, Donovan is more the correlation play, while Nootbaar can provide more individual upside. In 347 plate appearances last year, Nootbaar hit 14 home runs with a 12.1% barrel rate and a 46% hard-hit percentage, he is a strong breakout candidate with a full-time role in 2023. Tommy Edman makes for one of the league’s best wraparound plays from the bottom of the lineup, where his speed should be deadly this season.
Play: Blue Jays stacks, limited Cardinals stacks, Kevin Gausman
Milwaukee Brewers (-118/3.40) @ Chicago Cubs (+109/3.17)
Lefty Justin Steele had surprisingly good numbers over his 119 innings and 24 starts last season. Steele posted a 24.6% strikeout rate with a 3.48 xFIP and a 3.18 ERA. He induced a 10.1% swinging-strike rate, but his CSW% left plenty to be desired at just 26%, which helps explain his ugly 9.8% walk rate. Steele allowed too many opportunities with his 1.35 WHIP, but he was excellent at keeping the ball in the yard with just a 1.56% home run rate and a 3.9% barrel rate allowed. The southpaw allowed just a 33.3% hard-hit percentage last season, if he cuts down on walks and continues to induce soft and medium contact he could take another step and be a sneaky-strong option early in the season. Still, the Brewers feature several quality bats on the right side of the plate, and Steele is just one season removed from a 4.84% home run rate over 57 innings in 2021. Viable Brewers bats today include Willy Adames, who hit 31 home runs last season while creating runs nine percent better than average. Adames will likely lead the way ahead of former NL MVP Christian Yelich, who needs to remember how to elevate the baseball and a group of right-handed power hitters who all have warts. These include one of this space’s least favorite players in Luke Voit, who brings his mediocrity and overblown home run upside to another squad. Voit hit 22 home runs in 568 plate appearances last season, which is not in line with his excellent barrel rate, he should be better than he is but his track record tells us otherwise. Catcher William Contreras and multi-position eligible Mike Brosseau and Brian Anderson should all be relatively low-owned on a large slate, any of them are fine for power potential, but they are far from reliable.
The hometown Cubs are facing excellent right-handed starter Brandon Woodruff, which should be enough information to decide whether to roster them. Cubs bats that would potentially be interesting despite the matchup are inexplicably high-priced. For example, Dansby Swanson costs $5,200 on this slate. The shortstop is very good, far better than the credit he typically gets from the MLB DFS community, but that is a high price in this matchup. Ian Happ is at $4,500 on DraftKings, while Nico Hoener checks in at $4,300. These are prices against a starter who posted a 30.6% strikeout rate with a 3.14 xFIP across his 153.1 innings last season. Woodruff is a prime starter on both sites, he costs $10,300 on DraftKings and $10,500 on FanDuel and can be rostered aggressively against this team on both sites. For the masochistic crowd, in addition to the three hitters already named, Cody Bellinger and Trey Mancini are potentially interesting inexpensive options in the middle of the Cubbies lineup.
Play: Brandon Woodruff, hitter one-offs or limited value-based stacking
Atlanta Braves (-239/4.94) @ Washington Nationals (+215/3.17)
The best power spot of the day was featured in both the Power Index and Home Run Picks columns. The ridiculously talented Braves lineup is blowing the roof off of today’s home run model in their matchup against Josiah Gray. Gray has allowed 57 home runs in a Major League career with just over 200 innings pitched, he has been over a 5% home run rate for his career. As targets go, Gray is more like the giant chain of retail superstores than he is a dartboard. This is a pitcher to throw stacks at in many combinations. The Braves lineup features talent from top to bottom, they can be combined in essentially any order. Ronald Acuna Jr. can always be rostered, he should be stacked with Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II, seriously, it’s the entire lineup. Catcher Sean Murphy managed to leave a small village on the basepaths on Opening Day, but he is primed for a big season. Murphy slashed .250/.332/.426 with 18 home runs while creating runs 22% better than average his last season in Oakland, he is an excellent bat and a premium catcher for MLB DFS on DraftKings, and can also be deployed on FanDuel, where he costs just $2,800.
The lowly Nationals lineup is facing one of baseball’s truly special pitchers. Spencer Strider burst onto the scene in 2022, making 20 starts and throwing 131.2 innings with a wholly unbelievable 38.3% strikeout rate. Strider struck out 202 hitters, the 11th-best mark in baseball last season, despite pitching between 35 to almost 100 fewer innings than the 10 pitchers above him on the list. This is an elite arm that should be rostered enthusiastically at any price against a lineup like Washington’s. There is very little need to consider Nationals on this slate, but the top of the lineup would be the focus for anyone playing this team in a contrarian sense (there are better options). Lane Thomas, Dom Smith, Joey Meneses, and Jeimer Candelario, as well as maybe lefty Corey Dickerson are the bats to consider (then skip).
Play: Braves. Just all the Braves. Full stacks, one-offs, and Spencer Strider.
Philadelphia Phillies (-121/3.95) @ Texas Rangers (+112/3.63)
Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi is a slightly above-average pitcher. Eovaldi made 20 starts last season, posting a 3.46 xFIP and a 3.87 ERA. The year before he had a 3.48 xFIP and a 3.75 ERA over 182.1 innings in 32 starts. His strikeout rate dipped from 25.5% in 2021 to 22.4% last season, but his low walk rate stayed steady, improving slightly from 4.6% to 4.3%. His home run rate spiked in a major way, from an excellent 1.96% in 2021 to an ugly 4.57% in 2022. This came on the back of an increase from 6.3% to 10.7% barrels allowed and a jump of about two mph in average exit velocity. Eovaldi is capable but not reliable, steady but not standout, he is unlikely to get destroyed, but equally unlikely to pitch through six clean innings with a tournament-winning score. He is best avoided on the mound for MLB DFS purposes, though he has minor viability as an SP2 on DraftKings. Phillies bats can be rostered against Eovaldi, but he has enough talent to limit them to only a few runs in most cases. Superstar Trea Turner is an elite five-tool player who has a strong chance at an MVP this season. Turner slashed .298/.343/.466 with 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases while creating runs 28% better than average last season, he is an excellent infield option but he is very expensive at $5,900 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel. Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies in our home run model today, the lefty masher had 46 long balls in 669 plate appearances last season. He will be followed by excellent catcher JT Realmuto who can be played on both sites and inexpensive power hitter Darick Hall. Hall is the direct replacement for injured Rhys Hoskins, but he checks in at just $2,700 on DraftKings and a microscopic $2,200 on FanDuel, making him a fantastic value. Hall his nine home runs in 142 plate appearances as a rookie in the Show last year, posting a tremendous 17.4% barrel rate and a 44.6% hard-hit rate, one simply needs to ignore the breeze from his swings and misses when rostering him and hoping for contact. The Phillies lineup features quality through the back-end as well, Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh all have upside.
Excellent right-handed starter Zack Wheeler will take the hill for Philadelphia today. Wheeler posted another strong year, pitching 153 innings in 26 starts with a 3.06 xFIP and a 2.82 ERA while striking out 26.9% of opposing hitters. Those numbers represent a minor dip from his outstanding 2021 season, most notably in strikeouts which dropped from a 29.1% rate over those 213.1 innings. Wheeler struggled with diminished stuff late in the season as well, so it will be interesting to watch him early on, even with reports of full health. The righty is facing a stout Texas lineup that includes the best pair of middle infielders in baseball in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, who have a strong chance at becoming just the second middle infield tandem to both hit 30 home runs. They are followed by Nate Lowe and Adolis Garcia, the latter of whom is priced at $4,600 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel, which is a fair price for a player who hit 27 home runs and stole 25 bases in 2022 after hitting 31 homers and stealing 16 bags in 2021. The top-four hitters in the Texas lineup are a great stack on their own, they can be combined with Josh Jung, who has talent when he is not swinging and missing, as well as Brad Miller, who came through after being featured in this space two days ago.
Play: Phillies stacks, limited Rangers stacks, Zack Wheeler
San Francisco Giants (+125/3.99) @ New York Yankees (-135/4.60)
With the Yankees rotation taking several injury hits during the Spring, the second start of the season falls to Clarke Schmidt, who threw 57.2 innings last year but made just three starts. Schmidt posted a 23.7% strikeout rate in the Show in that split sample, and oddly his mark went well up in his starts. Schmidt posted a 22.5% strikeout rate across 46 relief innings and a 28.6% rate in 11.2 innings in his three starts, though that is very likely to be noise from a small sample. Schmidt has good stuff and he is a fairly well-regarded pitcher, but at age 27 it seems likely that he would have already arrived if he were to become anything special. The Giants’ lineup is peskier than it is talented, but there are plenty of left-handed bats that can be stacked in Yankee Stadium against this righty starter and the bullpen. Lamonte Wade Jr., Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski, and Brandon Crawford are all playable lefty hitters. That group can be stacked along with Wilmer Flores or Thairo Estrada, depending on the final form of the lineup.
Alex Cobb takes the mound for the Giants against the hometown Yankees. Cobb threw 149.2 innings of strong baseball last season, putting up a 2.89 xFIP to his 3.73 ERA. The difference between those marks shows that he was better than it may have seemed on the surface, but Cobb is also not an elite arm. The starter had a 23.9% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate and he is excellent at limiting barrels and home runs. In 2022, Cobb allowed just a 1.43% home run rate, slightly up from the 1.27% he yielded the season before. His barrel rates allowed were 3.7% last year and 4.2% in 2021, he is very good at keeping premium contact off the table. With that in mind, the Yankees’ aggressive home run-hitting swing-and-miss approach may be problematic for the team. The loaded lineup has more than enough talent to overcome Cobb, of course, and if they come up as potentially undervalued, the Yankees are always a good play when sneaky. DJ LeMahieu needs to return to the quality of two seasons ago overall, but he was still 16% better than average for run creation in 2022, he should be hitting in front of the Yankees’ power core of Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton, making a prime stack off the top. Additional Yankees including Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe should be considered for varying stack combinations as well. Volpe had an exciting debut and makes a fantastic wraparound option from the ninth spot in the lineup with his speed and hit tool.
Play: minor shares of Giants stacks, Yankees stacks, minor shares of Cobb in 150 entries in large field tournaments
Los Angeles Angels (-160/4.52) @ Oakland Athletics (+147/3.58)
Athletics starter Shintaro Fujinami probably does not think of himself as a rookie. The 28-year-old has been pitching professionally in Japan’s NBP since he was 19, but he will be making his MLB debut on Saturday, facing a potentially lethal Angels lineup that features several of baseball’s best hitters. Fujinami is a bit of an unknown in terms of his MLB DFS upside. He costs just $5,500 on the DraftKings slate and $7,300 on FanDuel, which is somewhat inexpensive for a pitcher who posted better than a strikeout per inning in Japan. How that translates to the Majors is a big question mark for this pitcher going forward, however, and it does not seem wise to put all of one’s chips on such an unknown commodity. In large field tournaments when entering 150 lineups, given his low price, Fujinami is viable as an SP2 on DraftKings, but the Angels bats are probably the better play. Shohei Ohtani hit 34 home runs and created runs 42% better than average last year, the second-best mark on this team behind Mike Trout’s 176 WRC+. Trout hit 40 home runs in 499 plate appearances, posting a .347 ISO and slashing .283/.369/.630, concerns about diminished talent levels are dramatically overblown, if anything Trout is going to have a bigger season because he should run again this year. The two superstars are surrounded by quality in the form of Taylor Ward, who hit 23 home runs of his own while creating runs 37% better than average last year, Anthony Rendon – who may not be in the lineup after an altercation with a fan – at third base, and outfielder Hunter Renfroe who has excellent power upside. Renfroe is the fourth Angels player over the 10 mark in our home run model, joining Ward, Trout, and Ohtani. The back-end of the lineup has a few lesser hitters, but Brandon Drury stands out for power potential and catcher Logan O’Hoppe is an interesting positional play where catchers are necessary.
The Athletics are a low-rent lineup, there is just not much to love. The team is facing lefty Patrick Sandoval, who could provide quality but who costs $9,000 on DraftKings and $9,400 on FanDuel, given the opponent. Sandoval had a 23.7% strikeout rate but a 9.4% walk rate last year, 25.9% and 9.9% the year before. He is a quality strikeout option who could find a few additional whiffs against the Oakland lineup, but his price is in a territory that puts him alongside more talented options who may be less popular. Sandoval is viable but a somewhat tough click on this slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Athletics bats worth consideration include Aledmys Diaz, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown, and Jesus Aguilar, they are a very low priority today.
Play: Angels stacks, Patrick Sandoval
New York Mets (-122/4.22) @ Miami Marlins (+113/3.87)
The Mets had a rough night against an excellent Marlins starter last night, but they may have a better opportunity to put runs on the board against Edward Cabrera this afternoon. Cabrera threw 71.2 innings in 2022, putting up a 4.12 xFIP to his 3.01 ERA while striking out 25.8% of opposing hitters. Problems arise for Cabrera around his 11.3% walk rate and 3.44% home run rate allowed, the home runs are not problematic on their own but they can add up quickly when combined with free passes. The Mets lineup features several very patient hitters who specialize in getting on base, as well as some of the league’s best power, there is upside lurking in the New York lineup today. Lefty Brandon Nimmo had a .367 on-base percentage in 2022 and a .401 mark in 2021, he is an excellent leadoff option who should reach base several times against this pitcher. Nimmo created runs 34% better than average last year, he makes for a perfect correlation piece with hitters including Starling Marte, who has on-base acumen of his own as well as mid-range power and blazing speed; Francisco Lindor, who hit 26 home runs and stole 16 bases last year; and Pete Alonso, who homered last night and has a great shot at another one today. Alonso mashed 40 home runs last year and 37 the year before, he has 147 home runs in a career that just began in 2019. The Mets have quality down the lineup as well, Jeff McNeil is a hit-tool specialist who can give this pitcher fits and correlate well with other hitters, as can Mark Canha. An underrated and inexpensive power option late in the lineup is switch-hitting Eduardo Escobar, who hit 20 home runs last year and 28 the year before. Escobar costs just $4,500 at third base on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel.
The Marlins had talent on display in last night’s game, with home runs from veteran slugger Jorge Soler, who crushes lefties, and MLB The Show cover-man Jazz Chisholm Jr. Miami will be facing right-handed Tylor Megill this afternoon, putting more of their key hitters on the wrong side of their platoon splits. Megill threw 47.1 innings in nine starts in the Majors last year, pitching to a 3.35 xFIP that completely belies his 5.13 ERA. With that dramatic difference between his surface numbers and the stat that reflects only what the pitcher can control, Megill may not be fully on the radar for MLB DFS gamers. The righty had a 25.5% strikeout rate last season and a 26.1% rate in his 89.2 innings over 18 starts in 2021. Megill reduced his home run rate from an unsightly 5.01% to just 3.50% last year, though his barrel rate allowed remained above 10%. There is risk involved in playing this pitcher, but he comes in at just $7,200 on DraftKings and $7,900 on FanDuel, putting him firmly on the value board. The Marlins will field a highly right-handed lineup, but they have stackable options including hit-tool specialist Luis Arraez. The infielder won last year’s AL batting crown and he makes a premium correlation option with payers like Soler and Chisholm, as well as Jean Segura and Garrett Cooper. Cooper has gotten his season off to a good start after slashing .261/.337/.415 last year. His 10.7% barrel rate indicates that more power may be on the way this season after the first baseman hit just nine home runs in 469 tries last year. The Marlins are an OK option on this slate, they should be rostered in a full suite of 150 lineups, but they are not a big priority and can be skipped in smaller portfolios.
Play: Mets stacks, limited Marlins stacks, limited Tylor Megill and Edward Cabrera shares.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+130/3.94) @ Cincinnati Reds (-141/4.65)
DraftKings mispriced Reds starter Nick Lodolo at just $8,800 on today’s slate. The southpaw costs $9,600 on FanDuel, which is also arguably too low for his upside against the Pirates. Lodolo was excellent across 103.1 innings in 19 rookie starts last year. He posted a 29.7% strikeout rate while walking 8.8% of hitters and pitching to a 3.49 xFIP. His ERA was in-line with the expected numbers at 3.66 and he was very good at limiting home runs, with just a 2.95% mark, despite playing in one of the league’s better parks for home run upside. Lodolo is a terrific option on this slate, almost regardless of any popularity. The Pirates have shown slightly more upside against lefties in recent years, but there is not a lot to love about this stack. The key hitters for Pittsburgh are Oneil Cruz, who should leadoff for $5,400 on DraftKings but just $3,300 on FanDuel, making the shortstop an interesting but likely popular one-off on the blue site. Cruz is followed by excellent outfielder Bryan Reynolds, and somewhat disappointing – so far – Ke’Bryan Hayes. After coming up with an excellent prospect profile, Hayes has struggled to hit for much power or quality in the show. In 2022 he slashed just .244/.314/.345 with only seven home runs and a 3.9% barrel rate in 560 plate appearances. Hayes will be a fixture in the lineup all year, and the pedigree suggests there is still upside, but the “bust clock” has begun to tick. Andrew McCutchen is playable in his return to Pittsburgh, but he is no longer a standout, Carlos Santana has underappreciated power and is good at limiting strikeouts, he is an intriguing low-owned home run upside play at just $4,300 and $2,400, as is Jack Suwinski, though the lefty may not be in today’s lineup against same-handed pitching.
The Reds will be facing southpaw Rich Hill, who is on the opposite end of his career from Lodolo. Having just turned 43, Hill is six months older than the ancient Nelson Cruz, but quality lefties have a way of lingering in baseball. The veteran put up a serviceable 4.12 xFIP and 4.27 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate in 124.1 innings over 26 starts last year. Hill is pitching in Pittsburgh for a reason, and he is unlikely to provide upside for MLB DFS purposes. The Reds have several solid bats who may be able to get to him, but they are also not a priority lineup today. The primary bats of interest are Jonathan India, a second baseman who comes in at $4,900 and $3,300 from site to site. India hit 10 home runs and stole three bases while creating runs five percent below average last year, but he was 22% better than average for runs in 631 plate appearances in 2021. India hit 21 home runs and stole 12 bases that season, he has sneaky upside at his price and likely popularity. He will be followed by Wil Myers, who was a favorite sleeper candidate of many industry experts for how his power should play in the Cincinnati bandbox. Myers is cheap at $3,400 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel, he is an interesting play against this starter as either part of a stack or a cheap low-owned one-off. Tyler Stephenson is playable on both sites but is a better option as a DraftKings catcher. The back end of the Reds lineup leaves a lot to be desired.
Play: Lots of Lodolo, minor shares of Pirates, and minor shares of the top four or five Reds hitters
Detroit Tigers (+159/3.27) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-174/4.32)
New Rays starter Zach Eflin will be on the mound to face the Tigers today. Eflin threw 75.2 innings in 13 starts last season, putting up a 4.04 ERA with a slightly better 3.81 xFIP. He only struck out 20.8% of opposing hitters but he limited walks to just 4.8% and had a 1.12 WHIP and just a 2.56% home run rate. Eflin is more of a real baseball quality starter, but he could possess enough upside to provide value as an SP2 for just $7,500 on the DraftKings slate. For $8,400 on FanDuel, there are probably better options, we would be banking on the quality start for Eflin to reach more than 30 FanDuel points, and that will likely not be competitive with the very top options today. Without the benefit of a major salary offset on the blue site, there does not appear to be much reason to play Eflin despite the strong matchup. The righty is facing a weak Tigers lineup that does not warrant much attention. Playable Tigers bats would be Riley Greene, Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter if he is in the lineup. The final piece that should be utilized if stacking Tigers is Austin Meadows, who came over from Tampa Bay before last season. Meadows hit 27 home runs in 2021, creating runs 13% better than average, he fell off completely last season due to injury and personal issues, limiting him to just 147 plate appearances over which he hit no home runs but created runs one percent better than average. Now fully physically and mentally healthy, Meadows may be primed for a big season.
While $6,100 is a very cheap price for a starter, there is not a ton of slate-winning upside in Spencer Turnbull, who takes the hill for the Tigers today. Turnbull’s primary quality is a demonstrable ability to limit home runs and power. In 2021, when he last pitched in the Majors, Turnbull limited opposing hitters to just a 1.0% home run rate and a 5.0% barrel rate over his 50 innings and nine starts. In 2020 he allowed just two home runs in his 11 starts and 56.2 innings, and in his largest sample, 148.1 innings in 2019, Turnbull yielded only 14 home runs. All of this is simply to say that, while the pitcher is not very playable, the Rays lineup may be limited for power upside today. Tampa Bay has an excellent lineup and significant left-handed power from Brandon Lowe and switch-hitting Wander Franco, but they are extremely limited in our home run model today. Stacking Rays may not be the viable approach, but one could string together a lineup that includes Lowe and Franco, as well as Yandy Diaz, star outfielder Randy Arozarena, and any hitter from the back end of the lineup to fill out the stack. At just $3,800 with second base and third base eligibility, Isaac Paredes remains an interesting late lineup option on DraftKings; for $2,400 at only third base on FanDuel he is a very playable piece.
Play: Zach Eflin as a DraftKings SP2, minor stack shares on both sides
Minnesota Twins (-157/4.78) @ Kansas City Royals (+144/3.82)
Right-handed Jordan Lyles is a limited starter who is more of an innings eater than an MLB DFS tournament winner. Lyles had an 18.6% strikeout rate over 179 innings in 32 starts last year and a 19% rate over 180 innings in 30 starts in 2021. The righty had a 4.40 xFIP with a 4.42 ERA last year and a 4.73 xFIP with a 5.15 ERA the season before, he is very targetable for run creation and reasonably targetable for power upside. This leads to a strong interest in Twins stacks on this slate. The Minnesota lineup is flashing major home run upside in the model today, and most of the lineup projects very well against a pitcher who will at best allow a ton of contact. Minnesota will likely be very popular on this slate, but they should be played in a variety of combinations and they have bats that bias leads the field away from, we’re looking at you, Joey Gallo. The lefty slugger posted an atrocious .160/.280/.357 triple slash over his 410 plate appearances last season, but he still managed to hit 19 home runs with an outstanding 17.6% barrel rate and 50.5% hard-hit rate, he needs to make contact. Concerningly, however, Gallo was pinch hit for on Opening Day after just two plate appearances in a platoon-based matchup. If he is not reliably getting four to five opportunities it is very difficult to roster this hitter. Fortunately, the Twins have many better options available. These include Max Kepler, a lefty who was limited to just nine home runs in a disappointing 2022, but who hit 19 in just 490 plate appearances in 2021. Kepler will be followed by Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, the two stars in the Twins lineup. Buxton is one of the highest-rated players not on the Atlanta Braves in today’s home run model, but he costs $6,000 on DraftKings. The star outfielder is a much easier play on FanDuel at just $3,700, but that should make him quite popular. Paying up to be contrarian on DraftKings seems like a sound approach. Trevor Larnach is another lefty power option in this lineup, Larnach had an 11.4% barrel rate over 180 plate appearances in the Show last year.
With a 24% strikeout rate and a 3.66 xFIP over 24 starts last season, veteran right-hander Sonny Gray maintained his usual profile of mid-range quality with random spikes of upside. Gray is a frustrating pitcher to roster for MLB DFS, but his numbers speak to talent. He allowed just a 2.25% home run rate last year with a 1.13 WHIP and excellent contact marks, he should be able to find his way against this Royals lineup. For just $8,300 on DraftKings, Gray is in the SP2 conversation, he is somewhat playable at $9,200 and probably low ownership on the blue site. Gray is facing a Royals team that features power but a lot of swing-and-miss, he may find additional strikeouts and a ceiling score today. The Royals will be rolling out Bobby Witt Jr., who is a good option at just $4,900 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel. Witt hit 20 home runs and stole 30 bases as a rookie last year, he has the talent to improve on those excellent results. MJ Melendez had a 10.4% barrel rate and 18 home runs over 534 opportunities last year, Sal Perez barreled the ball 11.2% of the time with a 49% hard-hit rate and 23 home runs in 473 tries after hitting 48 long balls the season before, a catcher record. They are followed by lefty Vinnie Pasquantino, who slashed .295/.383/.450 with 10 home runs in just 298 plate appearances. If Franmil Reyes is in the lineup he is yet another power upside bat that can be rostered on the cheap. Reyes costs just $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel, despite his 11.3% barrel rate and 14 home runs in 473 opportunities in 2022. Michael Massey and Edward Olivares may offer late lineup upside as inexpensive unpopular options.
Play: A lot of Twins stacks in varying combinations, limited Sonny Gray, limited Royals stacks.
Baltimore Orioles (+139/4.09) @ Boston Red Sox (-151/5.01)
The final game of this finger-tiring overview features an AL East battle between the greatly improved Orioles and the diminished Red Sox. Baltimore will be facing formerly elite Chris Sale, who has suffered a ridiculous run of injuries over the last few seasons. When he has been on the mound, Sale has still been good, and several of his injuries were of a freak nature, so he could post a strong season if he pitches all year. The southpaw had a 20% strikeout rate in his 5.2 innings last season that can be completely ignored. In 2021 he managed 42.2 innings and nine starts, pitching to a 3.35 xFIP and a 28.4% strikeout rate that were more like the familiar Sale. The lefty is facing a tough challenge in a heavily right-handed young Orioles lineup, however, which could make him a risky but interesting MLB DFS play in a vacuum. Of course, tournaments are not played in that vacuum and one must account for Sale’s broken price on DraftKings, the starter comes in at just $6,700 on the site, making him a tremendous value option. At $9,100 on FanDuel there is far more inherent risk in rostering Sale. Meanwhile, Orioles bats are looking quite playable as well. Switch-hitting Cedric Mullins has both power and speed at the top of the lineup, leading into outstanding catcher Adley Rustschman and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, the latter of whom had advanced metrics that were in the company of hitters like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez, a massive breakout is coming, be ahead of the field when it arrives. Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Austin Hays, and Jorge Mateo are all solid stacking options up and down the lineup. Mateo’s speed was on display with two stolen bases on Opening Day, if anyone in baseball has 50-steal upside it is him.
The Red Sox will be facing Dean Kremer, a contact-oriented starter who managed just a 17% strikeout rate in 125.1 innings and 21 starts last season. This could lead to a shootout of a game with offense on both sides. Kremer had a 4.43 xFIP under his 3.23 ERA last year, showing that he was quite lucky throughout the season. He allowed just a 2.15% home run rate though, giving him some hope of pitching cleanly, though not a hope of a ceiling score. The Red Sox are playable against this starter, particularly at the top of the lineup. Alex Verdugo provides a strong hit tool and is a good correlation piece with star third baseman Rafael Devers as well as veterans Justin Turner and Adam Duvall. NPB free agent signing Masataka Yoshida was given a bigger-than-expected contract to come to Boston in the offseason, but he brings a quality stick and should be hitting in the middle of this lineup, making him viable for stacking purposes. Rookie Triston Casas should be a good source of cheap power early in the season, and both Christian Arroyo and Enrique Hernandez offer mid-range ability at cheap prices and low ownership to fill out and differentiate lineup combinations.
Play: Chris Sale on DraftKings (limited on FanDuel), Orioles stacks, Red Sox stacks.
