The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 11

Below

Josh Allen – Quarterback – Buffalo Bills – $8,200/$9,000 – QB9 points/QB20 value DraftKings; QB9/RB15 FanDuel

Josh Allen is a premium quarterback who can create touchdowns with his big arm and with his excellent ability to put the ball in the end zone on the ground. Allen is a high-risk/high-reward quarterback on the field, he takes chances and ends up throwing interceptions, much like a power hitter who strikes out aggressively he tends to pay dividends for DFS gamers with regularity. Allen projects well on this slate, but he lands in a tightly packed group of highly playable options that are within two fantasy points of the positional leader, and he is facing a tough Jets defense that ranks 2nd in the league with just 5.3 yards allowed per pass attempt. New York has managed 25 sacks and nine interceptions on the season and their defense pressures the quarterback at a 29.6% clip despite just a 17.2% blitz rate. Allen has thrown 19 touchdown passes on the season while racking up 7.4 yards per pass attempt on 8.4 intended air yards per attempt, but he has also thrown 11 interceptions. The seven touchdowns and 5.1 yards per rush attempt that the quarterback has posted this season are a major boost to his individual value, Allen is a strong option on any given slate but he is very expensive and he projects simply as a “good” option against this defense. We are roughly 1.75 fantasy points behind the industry average projection on the Bills quarterback this week, with an expectation of limited exposure.

Justin Herbert – Quarterback – Los Angeles Chargers – $7,600/$8,800 – QB12/QB21 DraftKings; QB12/QB16 FanDuel

In a game with a 44-point total and a very good quarterback-receiver pairing coming from the Chargers, we have a bit of a preference for the other side. Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert is one of the more talented passers in the league and he has an undeniably good connection with lead receiver Keenan Allen, but the overall weapons in the passing game are in a limited state after a plague of injuries that has yet to subside. Even Allen is not at full health, the star wide receiver played part of last week’s game after suffering a shoulder injury and leaving briefly, he has been questionable all week but is expected to play through pain. The team’s nominal number two is rookie Quentin Johnston, who has been in the end zone just once this season, while Jalen Guyton recently returned from a long absence but is again injured and listed as questionable. The team is also starting understudy tight end Donald Parham Jr. who has some touchdown upside at a cheap price, but is not a premium overall option at his position. All of these factors add up to potentially limit the ceiling for the Chargers’ quarterback against a team that ranks 8th with just 6.1 yards per pass attempt allowed on the season. Green Bay has generated a 23.2% pressure rate on a 32.3% blitz rate for the season, they have 21 sacks and just five interceptions, but the overall limitations on yardage are compelling and they have allowed just eight passing touchdowns in nine games. Herbert attempts 35 passes per game and has thrown for 7.3 yards per pass attempt on 7.6 intended air yards per attempt this season. The star quarterback has 17 touchdown passes and just five interceptions on the season, he and Keenan Allen have connected for six touchdowns on the season and they have upside for multiple correlated scores on any given slate, but the Chargers may just lean into star running back Austin Ekeler against a rush defense that ranks 18th with 4.2 yards allowed per rush attempt and 133 rush yards allowed per game this season. Herbert is easily playable, but his value marks are not in line with the expected production, he projects below Allen on both sites by raw fantasy points.

Jerome Ford – Running Back – Cleveland Browns – $5,200/$6,700 – RB22/RB20 DraftKings; RB22/RB25 FanDuel

The Browns and Steelers are squaring off in a game with a 33-point total on the board in Vegas, one of the lowest game totals in the NFL in the last 20 years. There are very few appealing fantasy plays in a game with a total that low, but the least appealing portion seems to be the Browns’ somewhat capable rushing game. Both Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have talent and individual upside, but they are in a frustrating split for fantasy carries that is not fully reliable despite recent production. Either back can gain from facing a rush defense that ranks 26th with 4.5 yards allowed per rush attempt, but the Steelers have limited rushing touchdowns to just 0.56 per game on the season. In recent weeks Ford has eclipsed Hunt in both snaps and touches, but Hunt has posted at least one touchdown in five straight games and he has seen significant volume in the red zone. Hunt has seen a flipped role from who he previously was in this offense, he has not been involved as often in the passing game, while Ford has seen fairly regular targets. In Week 10 Ford carried the ball 17 times for 107 yards while catching his lone target for an additional two, but he did not get in the end zone, a theme that has been commonplace since his Week 7 score. Week 10 was only the second time this season that Ford eclipsed 100 yards on the ground, his Week 9 total was just 44 yards on 20 carries against the not-at-all-impressive Cardinals defense. Ford was targeted seven times in that game, he caught five passes for 33 additional yards but did not score, he has not scored in the passing game since Week 3. Ford did pick up a red zone carry last week and he had two the week before after seeing just one carry inside the 20 the entire season prior to Week 9. Meanwhile, Hunt carried the ball in the red zone exactly three times in each of Weeks 6-9 and twice in Week 10, he has six rushing touchdowns on 10-14 carries per week over the five-game stretch. With the split situation and Hunt siphoning more than his share of touchdown upside, Ford projects like a limited option on this slate and we land below the industry average projection by 1.8 fantasy points.

Tommy DeVito – “Quarterback” – New York Giants – $5,000/$6,300 – QB10million/QB22 DraftKings; QB22/QB22 FanDuel

Just don’t.

Lingering Lows

• D’onta Foreman
• James Cook
• Najee Harris
• Garrett Wilson
• Darrell Henderson Jr.
• Christian Kirk
• Michael Mayer
• Derrick Henry

Don’t miss our full breakdown in the Groups/Stacks article, complete with notes & stack rankings for every team

Above

Brian Robinson Jr. – Running Back – Washington Commanders – $5,800/$7,200 – RB4 points/RB1 value DraftKings; RB3/RB1 FanDuel

The Commanders draw the easiest matchup in football with a group of guys masquerading as the New York Giants on the other side. The Giants are helmed by quarterback Tommy DeVito in an unplayable situation this week, but the Washington offense has several pieces from which to draw fantasy plays. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. should benefit from an outstanding matchup against the terrible Giants’ defense and he gains additional upside with the expected absence of counterpart Antonio Gibson, which makes Robinson the clear three-down option. Robinson is highly projected around the industry but we land several points ahead of even the field’s optimistic projections against a New York defense that ranks 25th with 4.4 yards allowed per rush attempt, 131.2 yards allowed per game, and 1.6 touchdowns per game yielded on the ground. New York offers no resistance to the position, Robinson has significant potential on this slate, assuming he sees the ball frequently. The Commanders have been busy throwing the ball this season, quarterback Sam Howell averages nearly 40 pass attempts and 278 yards per game, but there is ample reason to expect that he will be able to take his foot off the gas pedal after getting out to an easy and early lead. All signs point to a strong week for Robinson, he is owned but not as crushingly popular as we think he should be on either site. Robinson lands as a top ROI option in sims for both sites in Week 11.

Jared Goff – Quarterback – Detroit Lions – $6,600/$7,900 – QB1/QB3 DraftKings; QB1/QB1 FanDuel

We return to the Goff well in Week 11 after the quarterback was featured in this space and delivered a good game in Week 10. Goff’s price rose slightly on DraftKings and fell by $100 on FanDuel after he posted 333 yards and two touchdowns on 33 pass attempts against the Chargers. The Lions are facing a similarly bad pass defense this week, the Bears rank 21st with 6.8 yards allowed per pass attempt with 248 yards allowed per game and 20 touchdowns yielded through the air on the season. The Bears are also pressuring the quarterback just 16.5% of the time and they have managed a limited total of only 13 sacks on the season, which should allow Goff all the time he needs to pick apart their secondary. Amon-Ra St. Brown is an extremely good option at the receiver position, but the Lions have a deep list of options including premium tight end Sam LaPorta, Josh Reynolds, Jameson Williams, and Kalif Raymond. The only potential detriment to the passing game could come from the team’s capable running backs, though both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs delivered last week while St. Brown and Goff still excelled, there is high-scoring potential on deck once again for the Lions in Week 11, if Bears quarterback Justin Fields can keep his team in the game this has the potential to cruise past the 47-point Vegas total. Goff+1, Goff+2, and both configurations with bring-back plays from the Bears (DJ Moore/Cole Kmet primarily) are all in play for stacks.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jordan Love/Romeo Doubs
• Robert Woods
• Rondale Moore
• Tony Pollard
• James Conner
• Nico Collins
• Trevor Lawrence
• Jakobi Meyers
• Josh Reynolds
• Brandin Cooks
• Tyreek Hill
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

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