The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 10

Below

Jerome Ford – Running Back- Cleveland Browns – $5,300/$6,400 – RB21 points/QB23 value DraftKings; RB21/RB25 FanDuel

Running back Jerome Ford is part of a split backfield with Kareem Hunt drawing critical touches each week and the Browns are in a tough matchup against the strong defense of the Ravens. Ford has gained 4.0 yards per rush attempt on the season and he has scored two rushing touchdowns while taking roughly 50% of the snaps and carrying the ball 13 times per game, meanwhile, Hunt has played just 28% of the team’s snaps but still sees 10 carries per game and, crucially, has scored five times while drawing consistent red zone carries. Hunt has carried the ball inside the 20 exactly three times in each of the team’s last four games. Ford saw two carries in the red zone last week but failed to convert, he did not touch the ball inside the 20 in the four games prior to that action. With talent but artificially limited scoring potential, and a brutal matchup against a Ravens defense that has allowed just 91.89 yards per game and 0.33 rushing touchdowns each week, Ford looks like a good candidate for an undercut to any public ownership. He is not the most popular running back on the slate, but even his medium exposure seems a bit much, Ford is at best a mix-and-match running back on this slate.

Aaron Jones – – – $6,500/$6,800 – RB14/RB15 DraftKings; RB14/RB14 FanDuel

The Packers are facing a Steelers defense that has yielded a whopping 4.5 yards per rush attempt, the 26th-ranked defense in the league. Pittsburgh has also allowed a 24th-ranked 6.9 yards per pass attempt on the season, but we land slightly behind the field on the Green Bay offense in this situation. Running back Aaron Jones, in particular, lands about 1.5 points behind the industry average in our model for Week 10. Jones is a high-volume lead running back with passing game upside, he is typically in the mold of interesting fantasy running backs, but he has been banged up through most of the season and has been limited to just 9.8 carries and 39.2 yards per game, with 4.0 yards per rush attempt and two touchdowns in his five games. Jones has gained 2.9 yards per attempt before contact and a measly 1.1 yards post-contact and he has turned 4.4 targets per game into just one receiving touchdown on the season. Counterpart AJ Dillon is not an extremely productive running back, but his presence draws a handful of touches from Jones each week, and the potential for vultured touchdowns always exists to further limit Jones’ ceiling. In last week’s game, Dillon saw nine carries and put up 40 yards while catching his lone target, in the same game Jones had his best performance of the year with 20 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown and another 26 yards added on 4-6 receiving. With several options ahead of him in our rankings for both points and value, Jones is an option that will fall by the wayside more often than not in lineup building today, he is playable but he is not a clear go-to option despite what appears to be a good matchup.

Lingering Lows

• Kenneth Walker III
• Jordan Love
• Alvin Kamara
• Mark Andrews
• George Pickens, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren
• Drake London, Bijan Robinson

Above

Geno Smith – Quarterback – Seattle Seahawks – $5,800/$6,900 – QB1 points/QB1 value DraftKings; QB2/QB1 FanDuel

After landing on the Below side last week, Seattle quarterback Geno Smith takes a big leap to QB1 status on the Week 10 slate in an outstanding matchup against the terrible Washington defense. Washington has managed to hang tough against a few good teams this season, which gives a bit of additional potential to what could become a sneaky shootout, at worst the Commanders should offer a few solid bring-back options. On his side, Smith has excellent weapons in the passing game with 1/1A receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett leading the way. He has a three-headed tight end that is limiting for fantasy purposes, but Kenneth Walker III is a strong running back with rookie backup Zach Charbonnet adding value in deep stacks and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a low ADOT safety valve. Smith will be facing a Washington defense that has allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 252 yards per game this season, with a slate-worst 19 passing touchdowns allowed so far. Smith has thrown for 225 yards per game and 7.1 yards per attempt this season, but his output has been a bit limited with just nine passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. Smith has an opportunity to pile stats on this week in an excellent spot, we will be above what is likely to be fairly significant ownership on a quarterback who has been talked up around the industry.

Jared Goff – Quarterback – Detroit Lions – $6,400/$8,000 – QB3/QB2 DraftKings; QB3/QB3 FanDuel

The Lions have a strong passing attack built around lead receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and dynamic rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, and the team will be returning a major weapon on the ground in the form of David Montgomery this week. Jared Goff will be leading the Lions attack on a Los Angeles defense that ranks 30th with 7.2 yards allowed per pass attempt this season. Los Angeles has been better against the run with just 3.7 yards allowed per rush attempt, the sixth-best mark in the league this season. Detroit will have the opportunity to lean into the passing game with Goff already throwing the ball 36 times per game and passing for 271.75 yards a week with 12 touchdown passes on the season. Goff has completed 7.4 yards per attempt on 6.6 intended air yards per attempt and the Lions offer several good options down the depth chart at cheap prices. St. Brown and LaPorta are clear top options at their positions, but the Lions have more to offer in Jameson Williams and Josh Reynolds, who both have downfield ability with a 15.7 and 12.4-yard average depths of target. Josh Reynolds slots in as an interesting undervalued option, he has drawn four targets per game and posted 1.9 yards per route run this season. The Lions are a high-priority stack this week, they rank third by fantasy points and fourth by value on FanDuel and sit third by points but seventh by value on DraftKings.

Rachaad White – Running Back – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,800/$7,000 – RB9/RB2 DraftKings; RB11/RB5 FanDuel

Tampa Bay running back Rachaad White has been a major weapon for the team and for fantasy scoring over the past few weeks. White is a volume hog, he has seen major involvement in the passing game and he receives regular carries as the team’s lead back. In last week’s game, White carried the ball 20 times for 73 yards and scored two rushing touchdowns while drawing four targets in the passing game. The running back was targeted seven times in Week 8, six times in Week 7, and four times in Week 6. He caught three of the four opportunities in the Week 6 game and has hauled in every single target in the three games since, posting excellent PPR scoring potential. White has at least 15 touches in each of the last three games and he draws a Titans defense that has allowed 4.1 yards per rush attempt and 114.75 yards per game on rushing this season. White is an excellent value option on both sites, he rates as RB2 for points-per-dollar value on DraftKings and RB5 by value on the blue site. White is going to be very popular this week, but carrying him at levels around the field’s projected marks is appropriate, he is good chalk on this slate.

Austin Ekeler – Running Back – Los Angeles Chargers – $8,400/$9,000 – RB2/RB10 DraftKings; RB2/RB10 FanDuel

In terms of raw scoring potential at the running back position, there are few better options than Chargers back Austin Ekeler, who ranks as RB2 by points and RB10 by points-per-dollar value on both sites for Week 10. Ekeler has posted 3.6 yards per rush attempt on 14.6 carries per game while scoring three rushing touchdowns this season, and he has a clear ceiling beyond that level of production. The running back has seen 14 carries in three of his four games since returning from injury, with 15 carries in the outlier. He has yet to crack 50 yards rushing but he has been over 100 combined yards from scrimmage in the sample, given his involvement in the passing game, and he has three combined touchdowns in four games. Ekeler drew seven targets in last week’s game, but came down with only two of them, he did far better in hauling in seven of eight passes for 94 yards and a touchdown in Week 8. Ekeler is a very high-end running back, he is pricey on both sites but he represents a strong pay-up option and he is not at overwhelming popularity this week in a highly-targeted game. The Chargers are a popular option on the other side of Lions stacks, Ekeler can be deployed as a bring-back option or as a featured player in Chargers stacks, and he is a strong individual player in other lineups. The Lions do have a strong rush defense, they have allowed just 3.7 yards per rush attempt to rank ninth this season with 0.75 touchdowns per game coming on the ground, but Ekeler has the clear talent at fair ownership to crack through for value this week, we will be slightly ahead of the field on the star running back.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jameson Williams
• Zay Flowers
• Christian McCaffrey
• Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore
• Travis Etienne Jr.
• Saints Defense
• Tyler Boyd
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Brandin Cooks

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