This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2024 Week 15 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | TEN | $33,900 | 1 | 2 | $29,700 | 1 | 3 |
| BAL | NYG | $30,500 | 2 | 1 | $26,700 | 4 | 4 |
| PHI | PIT | $34,100 | 3 | 12 | $30,100 | 2 | 15 |
| HOU | MIA | $31,700 | 4 | 5 | $27,500 | 3 | 8 |
| DET | BUF | $32,200 | 5 | 8 | $28,600 | 5 | 14 |
| ARI | NE | $29,800 | 6 | 4 | $24,100 | 7 | 1 |
| MIA | HOU | $31,800 | 7 | 17 | $27,100 | 6 | 10 |
| NYJ | JAC | $30,900 | 8 | 18 | $25,200 | 8 | 5 |
| BUF | DET | $30,700 | 9 | 19 | $26,700 | 9 | 20 |
| SEA | GB | $29,600 | 10 | 15 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| WAS | NO | $29,400 | 11 | 16 | $24,900 | 10 | 12 |
| GB | SEA | $28,500 | 12 | 7 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | DAL | $25,900 | 13 | 3 | $21,900 | 12 | 2 |
| KC | CLE | $28,100 | 14 | 13 | $23,700 | 11 | 9 |
| DAL | CAR | $27,700 | 15 | 20 | $22,400 | 13 | 7 |
| LAC | TB | $26,500 | 16 | 11 | $22,100 | 15 | 11 |
| TB | LAC | $28,700 | 17 | 21 | $23,800 | 14 | 19 |
| TEN | CIN | $26,000 | 18 | 10 | $22,500 | 17 | 16 |
| DEN | IND | $25,500 | 19 | 9 | $22,300 | 18 | 17 |
| IND | DEN | $27,900 | 20 | 22 | $23,000 | 16 | 18 |
| CLE | KC | $25,100 | 21 | 14 | $21,900 | 19 | 13 |
| NE | ARI | $23,800 | 22 | 6 | $20,300 | 20 | 6 |
| NO | WAS | $26,700 | 23 | 25 | $20,700 | 21 | 21 |
| PIT | PHI | $25,600 | 24 | 24 | $20,900 | 22 | 22 |
| JAC | NYJ | $25,200 | 25 | 23 | $21,400 | 23 | 23 |
| NYG | BAL | $26,100 | 26 | 26 | $21,100 | 24 | 24 |
Week 15 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 15 Features & FREE Projections
- Week 15 Projections
- Week 15 Above/Below
- Week 15 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 15 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 15 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 15 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 15
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Game Total: 46.5 / ARI -6.0 (26.25 imp)
Plays: 45.73% rush / 54.27% pass / 21.8 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 23.6 ppg / 6.32% sack / 1.50% int
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: James Conner, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Elijah Higgins (on/off), Trey Benson (on/off), Greg Dortch (large field), Zay Jones (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, KayShon Boutte
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Kyler Murray – QB7 points / QB1 value DraftKings; QB6/QB4 FanDuel
Running Backs
James Conner – RB6/RB3 DraftKings; RB7/RB7 FanDuel – Conner is in his typical fair mid-range position on both sites with a strong value mark on DraftKings, he sees a reliable 18.8 potential touches per game
Trey Benson – RB41/38; RB44/43
DeeJay Dallas – RB73/72; RB76/74
Receivers & Tight Ends
Trey McBride – TE1/TE5 DraftKings; TE1/TE3 FanDuel – McBride remains one of the top weekly tight end options despite his ongoing touchdown drought. His 14 targets last week and 8.8 in the average game are appealing on their own
Marvin Harrison Jr. – WR14/WR1; WR15/WR6 – Harrison is a standout for upside points-per-dollar value among high-end receivers on both sites, he draws a 13.4-yard ADOT for 42.33% of the team’s air yards and has scored seven times this season
Michael Wilson – WR38/45; WR47/46 – mix-and-match differentiator play with four touchdowns this season
Greg Dortch – WR70/WR66; WR84/WR81
Elijah Higgins – TE38/TE37; TE38/TE38
Zay Jones – WR87/WR84; WR103/WR102
Arizona is a reasonable mixer stack with strong points-per-dollar upside this week. The Cardinals are Stack 7 by points and Stack 1 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 6 by points and Stack 4 by value on FanDuel
Baltimore Ravens
Game Total: 42.5 / BAL -16.5 (29.5 imp)
Plays: 50.5% rush / 49.5% pass / 29.5 ppg / 5.7 ypa rush / 8.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 22.5 ppg / 9.27% sack / 0.54% int
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: at most two (this allows Jackson to appear as a standalone play if desired, otherwise standard at lest one – exactly two)
Team Group: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Justice Hill (on\off), Nelson Agholor (large field), Tylan Wallace (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Devin Singletary (on\off), Daniel Bellinger
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson – QB2 points / QB17 value DraftKings; QB2 points / QB2 value FanDuel – Jackson is a wildly different value play from site to site but he is unfailingly one of the top weekly quarterback options for a true ceiling game.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry – RB1/RB2 DraftKings; RB1/RB3 FanDuel – Henry and Saquon Barkley simply operate on a level entirely different from other running backs, get them when you can afford them, Henry averages 5.9 yards per attempt on 18.5 carries and has 13 rushing touchdowns this season
Justice Hill – RB32/RB31 DraftKings; RB32/RB33 FanDuel – Hill is no more than a dart throw but he breaks big plays with a touch more frequency than others in limited-touch roles
Keaton Mitchell – RB66/68; RB73/73
Patrick Ricard – RB72/71; RB75/75
Receivers & Tight Ends
Zay Flowers – WR17/WR13; WR19/WR26 – Flowers is a top receiver to pair with Jackson, he works in tandem with the quarterback and Henry for raw touchdown upside as well. Flowers has four touchdown receptions and carries a 25.84% air yards share on a team-leading 7.2 targets/game
Mark Andrews – TE8/TE10; TE11/TE17 – 3.9 targets/game average, seven touchdowns
Isaiah Likely – TE17/TE19; TE17/TE22 – 3.9 targets/game average, four touchdowns
Rashod Bateman – WR46/50; WR52/59 – lower-end depth receiver with big play ability on a 13.4-yard ADOT and 4.2 targets/game
Nelson Agholor – WR74/76; WR82/82 – low-volume deep threat dart throw – 13.0-yard average depth of target but only 2.2 targets/game
Baltimore is a strong raw scoring play on the back of Jackson and Henry’s monster weekly scoring potential, they are Stack 4 by points and by value on DraftKings, on FanDuel they are Stack 2 by points and Stack 1 by value
Buffalo Bills
Game Total: 54.0 / BUF +2.5 (25.75 imp)
Plays: 46.89% rush / 53.11% pass / 30.5 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 50.3% rush / 49.7% pass / 32.1 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 8.5 ypa pass
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid (Q), Keon Coleman, Dawson Knox (on/off; large field), Curtis Samuel (on/off; large field), Mack Hollins (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright, Tim Patrick
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Josh Allen – QB1 points / QB16 value DraftKings; QB1 points / QB4 value FanDuel – Allen is a rock-solid option from the top of the board leading a stack that dips by points-per-dollar while maintaining a strong ceiling in the game of the week
Running Backs
James Cook – RB20/24; RB22/28 – Cook ranks lower than one might expect compared to his peers this week, the solid running back has a 4.6 ypa and 11 touchdowns, he is always an option but this heavily totaled game should trend toward the pass in the second half, carving in to his already limited potential touches (15.9 per game)
Ray Davis – RB40/41; RB42/45
Ty Johnson – RB44/42; RB47/48
Receivers & Tight Ends
Khalil Shakir – WR21/WR29; WR21/WR24 – Shakir is a weapon in the short passing game on just a 4.7-yard ADOT, he has three touchdowns and catches 5.4 of 6.8 targets per game
Amari Cooper – WR26/WR17; WR30/WR16 – Cooper is a strong option for value upside in the most desirable game of the week, he has three touchdowns and is an excellent downfield weapon for Allen and complement to Shakir with a 12.3-yard ADOT for the season
Dalton Kincaid – TE6/TE14; TE8/TE9 – Kincaid is a mid-ranked tight end who would be largely touchdown-dependent for a ceiling game, he averages 5.9 targets per game but has only scored twice, he is questionable after practicing on and off through the week
Keon Coleman – WR45/54; WR57/58 – playable mixer value
Curtis Samuel – WR117/117; WR72/73
Mack Hollins – WR75/78; WR79/83 – low-volume deep threat with touchdown and big play potential on an 11.7-yard ADOT. Hollins has five touchdown receptions and is always low-owned as a tournament dart
Dawson Knox – TE27/27; TE29/30 – gains ground if Kincaid does not play, would still be relatively low-volume and touchdown-dependent
The Bills are Stack 9 by points and Stack 20 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 9 by points and Stack 19 by value on FanDuel, the team is a strong option for fantasy points but they are justifiably expensive in the most desirable scoring spot of the week. At worst, multiple Bills work well as bring-back plays in Detroit stacks
Carolina Panthers
Game Total: 43.5 / CAR -3.0 (23.25 imp)
Plays: 41.07% rush / 58.93% pass / 17.9 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass / 28.2 ppg / 8.43% sack / 2.56% int
Key Player: Bryce Young
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Chuba Hubbard, Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, David Moore, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Tommy Tremble (on/off), Mike Boone (on/off), Deven Thompkins (large field), Jalen Coker (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Rico Dowdle, CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin, Jalen Tolbert
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Bryce Young – QB14 points / QB2 value DraftKings; QB17 points / QB5 value FanDuel – Young has shown signs of life in recent games and stands as a fair value mixer with a few competent receivers in Week 15. The Panthers are not a priority stack but they are on the board for a fair amount of points-per-dollar edge on both sites
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard – RB4/RB1 both sites – Hubbard checks in as a strong value option across the industry in Week 15, he gains 4.7 yards per attempt on 16.5 carries per game and has eight rushing touchdowns against a defense allowing 4.8 yards per rush attempt and 28.2 points per game
Mike Boone – RB50/47; RB51/40
Raheem Blackshear – RB65/65; RB70/70
Receivers & Tight Ends
Adam Thielen – WR23/WR11; WR25/WR13 – Thielen is a strong option to pair with Young and Hubbard if one chooses to stack Carolina, he has a pair of touchdowns on the season and was targeted 11 times in last week’s game. A fully healthy Thielen remains a scoring threat
Xavier Legette – WR34/39; WR40/34 – mix-in big play dart throw on a 12.0-yard ADOT for 33.11% of the air yards over his 5.2 targets/game
David Moore – WR53/55; WR55/55 – barely a mixer but does have a 10.6-yard average depth of target and one touchdown on the board while drawing 3.5 looks per game
Ja’Tavion Sanders – TE25/26; TE27/27
Tommy Tremble – TE29/31; TE33/35
Jalen Coker – WR91/95; WR89/95 – very low volume dart at a 13.0-yard ADOT, one touchdown this season, coming off of three straight DNPs
Carolina is a value play this week, they land as just Stack 12 by points but Stack 2 by value on DraftKings and sit similarly as Stack 13/3 on the FanDuel slate
Cincinnati Bengals
Game Total: 46.0 / CIN -5.0 (25.5 imp)
Plays: 35.16% rush / 64.84% pass / 27.8 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 26.3 ppg / 6.72% sack / 2.13% int
Key Player: Joe Burrow
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample (on\off), Tanner Hudson (on\off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyjae Spears, Tyler Boyd, Chig Okonkwo
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Joe Burrow – QB3/12 DraftKings; QB3/6 FanDuel – Burrow and the Bengals prime receivers are an interesting option with only moderate ownership. Burrow has two excellent weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, he has thrown 33 touchdown passes and only six interceptions in a top-tier season
Running Backs
Chase Brown – RB9 points / RB11 value DraftKings; RB10/11 FanDuel – Brown is a playable running back on both sites, he offers strong upside for a fair price given his 4.4 yards per attempt average with six rushing touchdowns and another three in the passing game on 4.2 targets per game. Brown needs those targets to make value on top of his 12.8 carries per game, he has been around that mark in the team’s two most recent outings
Khalil Herbert – RB53/54; RB57/57
Trayveon Williams – RB71/73; RB77/78
Receivers & Tight Ends
Ja’Marr Chase – WR1/WR2 DraftKings; WR1/WR1 FanDuel – Chase is the pinnacle of the wide receiver position in Week 15 and in general. The prodigious fantasy producer has 15 touchdown catches and carries 33.76% of the team’s air yards on fantastic volume with 9.8 targets per game
Tee Higgins – WR4/WR3 DraftKings; WR3/WR3 FanDuel – Higgins is right on the heels of Chase near the top of the board with Cincinnati ranking as the top overall scoring stack of the week. The receiver is an excellent counterpart to the superstar, Higgins draws an impressive 9.1 targets per game next to Chase’s volume, though that was an 18 to five swing in Chase’s favor in the team’s most recent outing. Higgins has five touchdowns on a 9.9-yard ADOT
Andrei Iosivas – WR55/53; WR64/70
Mike Gesicki – TE23/24; TE25/25
Drew Sample – TE36/35; TE35/32
Tanner Hudson – TE32/33; TE36/36
Jermaine Burton – WR106/105; WR112/115
The Bengals are Stack 1 by points on both sites this week, they dip to Stack 3 by value on DraftKings and Stack 2 by value on FanDuel but they make for a tremendous alternative to some of the most popular teams this week
Cleveland Browns
Game Total: 42.0 / CLE +4.5 (18.75 imp)
Plays: 34.61% rush / 65.39% pass / 17.8 ppg / 3.8 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.8 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 19.4 ppg / 5.91% sack / 1.40% int
Key Player: Jameis Winston
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Elijah Moore, Jerome Ford (on\off), Nick Chubb (on\off), Michael Woods II, Jordan Akins (on\off), Jamari Thrash (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt (on\off), Noah Gray (on\off; large field), JuJu Smith-Schuster (large field), Justin Watson (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jameis Winston – QB18/QB10; QB19/QB18
Running Backs
Jerome Ford – RB28/26; RB29/27
Nick Chubb – RB29/33; RB31/35
Pierre Strong Jr. – RB62/62; RB69/68
none of the above makes a compelling case for shares but Ford would be our choice on the likelihood of volume with 4.6 yards per rush attempt for the season
Receivers & Tight Ends
Jerry Jeudy – WR15/WR15; WR14/WR9 – Jeudy is a solid mixer at worst, he has a 37.41% air yards share on 7.5 targets and a 12.9-yard ADOT for the season, though that has amounted to only four touchdowns overall. Jeudy had a huge Week 13 with 235 yards and a touchdown on nine catches over 13 targets and has scored in two straight, he could be primed for a big day as a standalone receiver with counterpart Cedric Tillman out in Week 15
David Njoku – TE3/TE12; TE3/TE7 – Njoku draws heavy volume for the position with 8.7 targets per game and could also see an uptick with Tillman out for the game. Njoku has five touchdowns on the season and is the true second option to Jeudy in the passing attack
Elijah Moore – WR32/WR37; WR34/WR4 – Moore is a playable option from the mid-30s in both categories on DraftKings at a position for which we draw three or four options. On the FanDuel slate the receiver looks like a potentially critical value with Tillman out. Moore sees 6.2 targets per game on an 8.9-yard ADOT, he has big play ability and a path to a ceiling score against his low price
Michael Woods II – WR59/48; WR60/53
Jordan Akins – TE22/18; TE23/21
Jamari Thrash – WR89/89; WR95/91
The Browns are a low-end option against a fairly solid Kanas City defense, they rank as Stack 19 by points and Stack 13 by value on DraftKings and land as Stack 21/14 on FanDuel
Dallas Cowboys
Game Total: 43.5 / DAL +3.0 (20.25 imp)
Plays: 35.59% rush / 64.41% pass / 20.6 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.0 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 29.8 ppg / 5.90% sack / 1.75% int
Key Player: Cooper Rush
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin, Jalen Tolbert, Ezekiel Elliott (on\off), Luke Schoonmaker (on\off), Jonathan Mingo (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Chuba Hubbard, Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, David Moore, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Tommy Tremble (on/off), Mike Boone (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Cooper Rush – QB21/18 DraftKings; QB23/22 FanDuel
Running Backs
Rico Dowdle – RB10/RB5 DraftKings; RB12/RB5 FanDuel – Dowdle is the one to draw from the Dallas backfield, he gains 4.8 yards per attempt on 12.7 carries per game but has just one rushing touchdown, adding another three in the passing game where he sees a steady 3.5 targets per game to boost his potential touches to 15.2
Ezekiel Elliott – RB45/50; RB52/54
Receivers & Tight Ends
CeeDee Lamb – WR5/WR8; WR5/WR20 – Lamb takes a value hit on FanDuel but is by no means unplayable on the blue site. He is an upside option who could be somewhat unpopular at still-high pricing with Cooper Rush limiting his potential. Lamb got back in the mix with 93 yards and a touchdown on six catches in Week 14 but he will live and die with Rush’s performance
Jake Ferguson – TE9/TE4; TE12/TE10 – Ferguson is a stronger DraftKings play with reception-based scoring in play, he spikes a slightly higher scoring and a much stronger points-per-dollar score. Ferguson draws 6.4 targets per game but has failed to score and is now coming off a multi-week injury
Brandin Cooks – WR49/57; WR59/62
KaVontae Turpin – WR62/60; WR69/66
Jalen Tolbert – WR68/71; WR76/78
Luke Schoonmaker – TE34/42; TE34/37
Any of the three receivers from Cooks to Tolbert are playable darts in Cowboys stacks and more limited darts for big plays on very low volume in standalone shares. Cooks saw three targets last week and has three touchdowns overall this season, Turpin picked up four opportunities against his 3.2-target average, he has a pair of touchdowns, and Tolbert has broken free for four scores in the passing game this season. Schoonmaker is a mixer tight end who saw volume in Ferguson’s absence
Dallas makes for a bit of a value mixer with low DraftKings prices, they land as Stack 13 by points but climb to Stack 7 by value on that slate, they are just Stack 15/20 on the larger FanDuel slate where they are a more expensive low-end play. CeeDee Lamb is always in consideration even with more limited quarterback play involved
Denver Broncos
Game Total: 43.5 / DEN -3.5 (23.5 imp)
Plays: 42.93% rush / 57.07% pass / 23.5 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 22.9 ppg / 7.03% sack / 2.13% int
Key Player: Bo Nix
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, Devaughn Vele, Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, Jaleel McLaughlin (on\off), Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Bo Nix – QB12/QB13; QB12/QB14 – Nix has been strong as the season rolls on, he is up to 17 touchdown passes against just eight interceptions and has climbed to a still-insufficient 6.5 yards per pass attempt over 33.38 tries per game. Nix is a sneaky mixer now that his extreme low-cost appeal is gone at higher prices.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams – RB22/19; RB26/23 – mix-and-match running back with low-end ability at 3.6 yards per rush attempt with four touchdowns
Jaleel McLaughlin – RB30/29; RB34/30
Audric Estime – RB42/40; RB43/49
Receivers & Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton – WR12/WR18; WR10/WR8 – Sutton is a strong weekly option for sheer target volume and quality of targeting with high scoring potential. Sutton has five receiving touchdowns on 8.0 targets per game over a 13.2-yard ADOT that puts him in big play territory for Nix
Devaughn Vele – WR37/34; WR39/29 – mixer receiver with upside for breaking a play but operates on a more limited 8.2-yard average depth of target, one touchdown for the season
Marvin Mims Jr. – WR39/32; WR45/40 – dart throw for a deep touchdown pass on light volume at 2.3 targets/game
Troy Franklin – WR66/62; WR74/75 – Franklin is on the absolute outer fringes of playability, he has two touchdowns and an appealing 15.1-yard ADOT for the season but that can only get someone so far
The Broncos find a bit of value on the blue site but they are a low-end squad overall, Denver ranks as Stack 18/17 on DraftKings and Stack 19 by points but Stack 9 by value on FanDuel
Detroit Lions
Game Total: 54.0 / DET -2.5 (28.25 imp)
Plays: 50.30% rush / 49.70% pass / 32.1 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 8.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 20.6 ppg / 6.44% sack / 3.09% int
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick, Brock Wright (on\off),
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Cooks, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Dawson Knox (on\off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jared Goff – QB9 points / QB11 value DraftKings; QB8 points / QB17 value FanDuel – Goff leads one of the top offenses in football in the most appealing game of the week, he is a playable quarterback but he will live and die with how the team punches the ball into the end zone, something for which they often turn to their two-headed monster in the backfield
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs – RB8/RB15; RB11/RB12 – easily playable with massive touchdown upside
David Montgomery – RB17/RB21; RB17/RB20 – easily playable with massive touchdown upside
JahDavid Gibbgomery should be one running back who is the best at what he does, instead the whopping 22 rushing touchdowns that Detroit scored over the first 14 weeks were split with 10 going to Jahmyr Gibbs and 12 to David Montgomery. Gibbs outpaces Montgomery slightly on volume with 3.2 targets per game but the split is a matter of 0.5 potential touches per game for the entire season
Receivers & Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown – WR3/WR12; WR4/WR15 – At the point in the season where both sites have goosed the pricing for some of the top players on consistently strong teams, St. Brown suffers a similar value score hit to what we have seen for other star-caliber players. The receiver has nine touchdowns on 7.5 targets per game over a 7.9-yard ADOT that puts him in the middle of the action. Nine touchdowns over 7.5 targets per game
Jameson Williams – WR25/WR23; WR24/WR19 – The team’s true downfield threat with a 12.3-yard average depth of target and team-leading 31.06% air yards share. Four touchdowns over 5.7 targets per game
Sam LaPorta – TE4/TE3; TE5/TE8 – LaPorta rates third for our model in the passing attack for Detroit this week but he is noteworthy as a tight end who has managed to find the end zone a few times this season. LaPorta is up to five touchdowns for the year while drawing steady and potentially increasing volume. The tight end was targeted seven times in the team’s most recent game but has just a 4.3-target average for the year
Tim Patrick – WR51/52; WR53/56 – Patrick is not much more than a value dart for a big play, he has a 9.9-yard average depth of target but sees only 2.8 targets per game. Patrick has a pair of receiving touchdowns on the season, both of which came last week in a game that saw him haul in a season-high six passes
Brock Wright – TE55/56; TE65/64
Detroit is Stack 5 by points on both sites this week, they are more difficult to reach as Stack 14 by value on DraftKings than they are as Stack 5 by value on FanDuel. With a 54-point total in play and just a 2.5-point spread this game has the potential to offer a fantasy scoring bonanza
Green Bay Packers
Game Total: 46.0 / GB -2.5 (24.25 imp)
Plays: 50.83% rush / 49.17% pass / 26.8 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 8.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 21.8 ppg / 6.81% sack / 2.51% int
Key Player: Jordan Love
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jayden Reed, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Zach Charbonnet, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jordan Love – QB13/QB16 FanDuel
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs – RB6/9 FanDuel – Jacobs is a solid consistent performer with 11 rushing touchdowns for an excellent Green Bay offense. With 4.4 yards per rush attempt and 18.4 carries per game he puts up steady volume and accrues 81.0 yards per game while adding another 20.0 via his involvement in the passing game. Jacobs is an interesting angle into the late game on this slate
Chris Brooks – RB55/56
Emanuel Wilson – RB59/59
Receivers & Tight Ends
Jayden Reed – WR23/WR21 – Reed remains our lead option from the Packers’ passing attack, he gains 11.7 yards per target on 4.5 opportunities per game this season and has scored six times in the passing game and once on a rushing play
Christian Watson – WR29/WR22 – Watson is a ridiculous deep threat for top-end quarterback Jordan Love, the receiver pulls a 17.9-yard average depth of target that is one of the elite marks in the category among Week 15 DFS selections. Watson has two touchdowns this season but is capable of posting monster scores in a hurry
Romeo Doubs – WR33/WR18 – Doubs is a third interesting option in this receiver group, given a cheap price that bumps him to WR18 by points-per-dollar value. Doubs has a pair of touchdown catches on 5.3 targets per game and sees a 12.8-yard average depth of target that puts him in big play territory as well
Tucker Kraft – TE7/TE5 – Kraft draws 4.2 targets per game and has a team-leading seven touchdown receptions, he is typically an under-owned path to scoring potential at tight end and could provide a strong angle into the late game on FanDuel
Dontayvion Wicks – WR62/61 0 – Wicks is a lower-end mixer with four touchdowns in his pocket for the season, he sees 4.3 targets per game and picked up five last week with Doubs out but typically needs shakeup on the depth chart to step into value
Green Bay is Stack 12 by points but they climb to Stack 7 by value and should be considered as a points-per-dollar angle for standalone options at worst
Houston Texans
Game Total: 45.5 / HOU -2.5 (24.0 imp)
Plays: 41.89% rush / 58.11% pass / 23.7 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 42.0% rush / 58.0% pass / 20.3 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Joe Mixon, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie III, Robert Woods (large field), Cade Stover (on\off), Dare Ogunbowale (on\off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith, Raheem Mostert, Malik Washington
Game Notes:
Quarterback
CJ Stroud – QB10 points / QB8 value DraftKings; QB10 points / QB3 value FanDuel – Stroud has not had the strong season some (we) expected with just 15 touchdown passes and nine interceptions over a 7.2 yards-per-attempt average, at least a portion of that can be attributed to missing receivers but the output issues have gone beyond that with Nico Collins back in the fold for several games
Running Backs
Joe Mixon – RB3/RB4 DraftKings; RB3/RB6 FanDuel – Mixon is a peak performer at the position who provides volume like only a few other stars with 24.5 potential touches per game across the rushing and passing attack. Mixon gains 4.3 yards per attempt on the ground and 6.1 yards per target and has 12 total touchdowns
Dare Ogunbowale – RB61/60; RB65/67 – low-volume pass-catching mix-in who is no more than a wild desperate dart throw at a cheap touchdown, should not be rostered in most situations
Receivers & Tight Ends
Nico Collins – WR2 points / WR20 value DraftKings; WR2 points / WR14 value FanDuel – Collins draws 9.0 targets on a 10.8-yard ADOT and has scored four times, everything is better for Houston when he is on the field and he has strong scoring potential on this slate. Collins is a prime receiver in and out of stacks in Week 15
Tank Dell – WR24/WR19; WR27/WR17 – Dell is underpriced on both sites, his value score outpaces his raw points projection but he is roughly a top-25 overall option and should draw shares. Dell has two touchdowns on a team-leading 11.9-yard average depth of target for the season
Dalton Schultz – TE12/TE6; TE15/TE14 – Schultz is a value TE option on the DraftKings slate where his 4.9 targets per game could work out with a bit of reception-based upside. Ultimately, Schultz is a touchdown-dependent tight end who has only found the end zone once this season
John Metchie III – WR61/63; WR68/64
The Texans typically rank as a frisky team and disappoint, this week is no different as Stack 4/5 on DraftKings and Stack 3/8 on FanDuel
Indianapolis Colts
Game Total: 43.5 / IND +3.5 (20.0 imp)
Plays: 45.84% rush / 54.16% pass / 20.5 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.8 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 18.0 ppg / 9.07% sack / 2.55% int
Key Player: Anthony Richardson
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs (Q, expected), Jonathan Taylor, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, Kylen Granson\Mo Allie-Cox\Will Mallory (on\off, low-end rotation)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, Devaughn Vele, Marvin Mims Jr., Jaleel McLaughlin (on\off), Troy Franklin
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Anthony Richardson – QB17/14; QB20/20 – Richardson does not show much for value or raw scoring potential this week but is capable of spiking a ceiling game on any given slate with his skillset and several strong big play deep-look receivers. Richardson has thrown seven touchdowns against nine interceptions but that comes over 13.0 intended air yards per attempt, he has six passing plays of more than 40 yards this season
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor – RB12/16; RB14/14 – Taylor projects like a simple mixer option at running back this week, he is not particularly interesting but could easily succeed in an “is who he is” situation against a decent Denver defense – who he is being a 4.3 yards per attempt veteran running back with five touchdowns this season
Trey Sermon – RB57/57; RB63/63
Tyler Goodson – RB69/69; RB74/76
Receivers & Tight Ends
Michael Pittman Jr. – WR27/WR21; WR36/WR38 – Pittman is a roller coaster receiver which can make him interesting in DFS tournaments. The Colts in general have explosive upside but it is difficult to pin down without chasing. Pittman came into the season as the nominal number one but he trails both Josh Downs and Alec Pierce for touchdown catches with only two for the year. Still, Pittman draws a 6.6-target average over an 11.6-yard ADOT that has tremendous appeal with his quarterback’s ability to deliver the ball
Josh Downs – WR30/35; WR37/39 – Downs sees 7.8 targets per game to lead the team but operates on a shorter depth of target at just 7.5 yards. Downs has scored four times this season and his steady volume will feed the scoring engine but he is mostly touchdown-dependent given the limited nature of his targets and the accuracy with which they are thrown
Alec Pierce is a major downfield weapon who has a 21.8-yard average depth of target that is nearly unrivaled on the slate. Pierce has scored five times and leads Colts receivers in touchdowns, most of which have come on big “chunk plays”
Adonai Mitchell – WR64/68; WR75/77 – low end dart throw as another man in the mix of deep threat options
Tight end from this team is a mess, none of the four listed below draws more than 1.5 targets per game or has any semblance of projectable touchdown upside
The Colts are a team of dart throw options, including their quarterback, only Jonathan Taylor is a steady hand. Overall, the team is not strong as a unit as Stack 16/18 on DraftKings and Stack 20/22 on FanDuel
Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Total: 40.5 / JAC +3.5 (18.5 imp)
Plays: 40.74% rush / 59.26% pass / 18.3 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 21.1 ppg / 7.14% sack / 2.80% int
Key Player: Mac Jones
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Etienne Jr., Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, Josh Reynolds, Tank Bigsby (on/off), Devin Duvernay (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Tyler Conklin, Allen Lazard, Braelon Allen (on\off), Isaiah Davis (on\off), Xavier Gipson (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Mac Jones – QB23/24; QB25/26 – the numbers below and the rankings should speak for themselves
Running Backs
Tank Bigsby – RB25/22 on both sites – Bigsby is a mix-in option from a playable ranking but he is in a job-share with the inferior Travis Etienne Jr. Bigsby gains 5.0 yards per rush attempt and has punched in five rushing touchdowns on the season.
Travis Etienne Jr. – RB27/27; RB30/29 – Etienne has put up just 3.9 yards per attempt this season, he has a pair of rushing touchdowns and not much more
Receivers & Tight Ends
Brian Thomas Jr. – WR19 points / WR7 value DraftKings; WR17 points / WR10 value FanDuel – Thomas has appeal on both sites as a cheap option for his skillet. The receiver draws 6.5 targets per game and spiked to 12 opportunities just last week, he draws a 30.28% air yards share on a 12.6-yard ADOT over 6.5 targets per game and gains 10.0 yards per target for the season, he is easily this team’s most appealing option and is someone who can be played on his own in other lineups
Brenton Strange – TE18/8 DraftKings; TE19/12 FanDuel – will step up in the absence of injured Evan Engram, two touchdowns on 2.5 targets/game
Parker Washington – WR60/67; WR66/71 – solid 11.3-yard average depth of target but only 2.5 targets per game, two last week, one receiving touchdown on the season
The Jaguars offer very little appeal outside of a few dart throw options around Brian Thomas in standalone shares, they are Stack 23/23 on DraftKings and Stack 25/23 on FanDuel
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Total: 42.0 / KC -4.5 (23.25 imp)
Plays: 41.64% rush / 58.36% pass / 23.7 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 25.8 ppg / 7.93% sack / 1.04% int
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Noah Gray, Justin Watson (large field), JuJu Smith-Schuster (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Elijah Moore, Jerome Ford, Nick Chubb (on\off), Michael Woods II
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes – QB6/QB9 DraftKings; QB6/QB1 FanDuel – Mahomes projects as a top quarterback option in our model this week against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has managed only a 1.04% interception rate, the quarterback is the top points-per-dollar option at his position on the blue site in Week 15
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco – RB18/14; RB20/17 – mix-and-match quality with 4.3 yards per attempt on 13.8 carries per game with another 3.3 potential touches in the passing game but a bit of a job share in which the combination of Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine out-snapped him last week. Hunt has five touchdowns on the season but gains just 3.6 yards per attempt
Kareem Hunt – RB35/35; RB37/37 – these are the outer-edges of playability at running back, Hunt saw just 29% of the snaps last week and his overall output has been weak other than the touchdowns
Samaje Perine – RB48/44; RB54/52 – dart throw of a low-volume receiving game running back
Receivers & Tight Ends
Travis Kelce – TE2 points / TE9 value DraftKings; TE2 points / TE 4 value FanDuel – Kelce is a primary option at the position he should benefit from any production uptick for Mahomes who projects for a strong game in our model. Kelce leads the team with 8.2 targets per game but was out-drawn nine to six by DeAndre Hopkins last time out
DeAndre Hopkins – WR28/30; WR31/36 – Hopkins is another player who would directly benefit from a big Mahomes day. The veteran has five touchdowns on the season over an 11.3-yard average depth of target, he can still get open down the field for big scoring events
Xavier Worthy – WR29/27; WR32/30 – Worthy is a fine mix-in option in Chiefs stacks and is playable as an alternative standalone option at fairly insignificant popularity. Worthy has two rushing touchdowns and another four in the passing game on 5.2 targets per outing. Worthy has breakaway speed and lurking big play ability on any given slate
Noah Gray – TE20/21; TE22/23 – Gray sees frequent involvement in the passing game and has four touchdown catches, he is playable in large field tournaments
The Chiefs are Stack 11 by points and Stack 9 by value on DraftKings and Stack 14/13 on the FanDuel slate, they are potentially an interesting option as a skinny stack around Mahomes and one of his top pass-catchers or a straight-line broad stack with Mahomes, Kelce, and Hopkins
Los Angeles Chargers
Game Total: 45.0 / LAC -3.0 (24.0 imp)
Plays: 46.38% rush / 53.62% pass / 21.3 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 23.8 ppg / 6.65% sack / 1.22% int
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ladd McConkey (Q; trending positively), Gus Edwards, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Stone Smartt, Derius Davis (large field), Kimani Vidal (on/off), DJ Chark (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Cade Otton, Bucky Irving (Q), Sterling Shepard, Jalen McMillan
Lineup Notes:
Quarterback
Justin Herbert – QB11 points / QB6 value DraftKings; QB11/QB10 FanDuel – Herbert is a stronger option on DraftKings where he pops to QB6 for points-per-dollar, otherwise he is only a moderate play on the deep slate. Herbert averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt and has thrown only one interception this season but he has been limited to just 14 touchdowns on 28.15 pass attempts per game
Running Backs
Gus Edwards – RB21/20; RB23/21 – mix-and-match option with a 3.5 yards per attempt average and a pair of touchdowns on 8.8 carries per game
Kimani Vidal – RB33/32; RB33/31
Receivers & Tight Ends
Ladd McConkey – WR13 points/WR 9 value DraftKings; WR12 points / WR7 value FanDuel – McConkey is a strong option for points-per-dollar potential on both sites in Week 15, he draws 6.8 targets per game and has four touchdowns this season on a team-high 27.04% air yards share – McConkey is questionable and seems like a game-time decision but is trending toward playing
Quentin Johnston – WR33/38; WR35/33 – playable upside from the mid-range, solid 12.2-yard average depth of target with seven touchdowns in the books this season
Joshua Palmer – WR31/22; WR38/32 – 4.2 targets per game on a 15.8-yard average depth of target can yield big plays, that is what Palmer shares would be for but he has only scored once this season
Stone Smartt – TE14/TE1 DraftKings; TE10/TE2 FanDuel – Smartt will be the value play du jour at the tight end position given a low price as the top tight end for Los Angeles in Week 15. Smartt has barely been involved this season but he drew three targets last week and will pick up at least some of the chances Will Dissly saw in this role
The Chargers are Stack 15 by points and Stack 11 by value on DraftKings and Stack 16/11 on FanDuel, they are a minimally appealing stack that is potentially best broken into small parts in other lineups
Miami Dolphins
Game Total: 45.5 / MIA +2.5 (21.5 imp)
Plays: 42.0% rush / 58.0% pass / 20.3 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 22.2 ppg / 8.90% sack / 3.72% int
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith, Raheem Mostert, Malik Washington
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, John Methchie II
Lineup Notes:
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa – QB8 points / QB5 value DraftKings; QB9 / QB19 FanDuel – Outside of a lousy value mark on FanDuel, Tagovailoa is a highly playable option from the mid-range with the talent and weapons to float to the top of the heap on any given slate, even with his missed weeks the quarterback is up to 17 touchdown passes against only four interceptions
Running Backs
De’Von Achane – RB7/18 DraftKings; RB9’16 FanDuel – Achane had a disappointing Week 14 with just 24 yards rushing over 14 attempts and 45 yards in the passing game, but he managed to score a touchdown on the ground that made the difference between a disaster and an adequate day. The running back still has explosive upside but it is difficult to ignore a 3.9-yards per attempt average for the season. Achane has four rushing touchdowns and truly shines in the passing game where he picks up 5.5 opportunities per game and has scored six times.
Raheem Mostert – RB39/43; RB46/44 – nothing more than a touchdown dart on limited volume
Receivers & Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill – WR6 points / WR14 value DraftKings; WR7 points / WR25 value FanDuel – Hill picked up 14 targets in last week’s game, nearly doubling his season average of 7.5. He caught 10 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown in that contest and has scored in two straight and four of the team’s last five. Hill is finally mostly engaged in the season.
Jaylen Waddle – WR20 points / WR10 value DraftKings; WR22 points / WR11 FanDuel – Waddle picked up 99 yards on nine catches over 12 targets in the team’s Week 14 game but failed to score for the second straight game after his big 144-yard Week 12 game saw him get into the end zone
Jonnu Smith – TE7 points / TE20 value; TE6 points/TE13 value – Smith has five touchdowns on the season but operates in close to the line on a 5.3-yard ADOT, he is highly touchdown-dependent on most slates but does deliver a solid 8.9 yards per target despite the short nature of the chances
Malik Washington steps in as the full-time third receiver with Odell Beckham Jr. sent packing. Washington sees just 1.6 targets per game but could pick up another two, though he has not done much with the few chances he has seen to this point
The Dolphins are Stack 6 by points and Stack 10 by value on DraftKings and Stack 7/17 on the FanDuel slate where they are more expensive. The top-heavy squad leads to obvious constructions but they will be limited for popularity making them an appealing tournament dart-stack for a few shares across a portfolio of lineups
New England Patriots
Game Total: 46.5 / NE +6.0 (20.25 imp)
Plays: 42.7% rush / 57.3% pass / 17.0 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 22.2 ppg / 7.57% sack / 1.45% int
Key Player: Drake Maye
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Kayshon Boutte, Antonio Gibson (on\off), Austin Hooper (on\off), Ja’Lynn Polk
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Connor, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Trey Benson (on\off), Greg Dortch
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Drake Maye – QB15/QB7 DraftKings; QB16/QB9 FanDuel – Maye is showing a minor flash of value that is drawn more from simply a low price rather than a true ceiling. The quarterback throws 32 passes per game and has 11 touchdowns against eight interceptions in his partial season
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson – RB13 points / RB 7 value DraftKings; RB15/8 FanDuel – Stevenson continues to be a weekly point of frustration, he tends to score when not in use and fail when in use, at least in our anecdotal experience, which is meaningless. The running back is showing playable quality at worst, though his 3.7 yards per rush attempt for the year is less than encouraging
Antonio Gibson – RB37/36; RB40/41
JaMycal Hasty – RB55/55; RB60/58
Receivers & Tight Ends
Hunter Henry – TE5/7; TE4 points / TE1 value FanDuel – Henry picks up a top-tier ranking on the FanDuel value board at tight end, partly on the back of a team-leading 6.4 targets per game. Henry has one touchdown on the board and draws a 21.33% air yards share that ranks second on the team
DeMario Douglas – WR35/33; WR42/37 – Douglas has one touchdown and works on a 6.2-yard average depth of target, he is a mediocre play from the outer realms of playability
Kendrick Bourne – WR47/36; WR51/49 – Bourne has a 9.2-yard average depth of target for the season but sees just 3.4 opportunities per game
Kayshon Boutte – WR52/47; WR54/50 – Boutte, like Bourne above, is not much more than a depth mix-in player who can differentiate a random lineup. Both receivers caught three passes for moderate gains last week, they have combined for two touchdowns
New England ranks as an OK value option but their raw scoring potential is mediocre overall, they are just Stack 22 by points on FanDuel and Stack 20 by points on DraftKings but they shoot to Stack 6 by points-per-dollar on very cheap pricing
New Orleans Saints
Game Total: 43.5 / NO +7.5 (18.0 imp)
Plays: 46.31% rush / 53.69% pass / 22.3 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 22.8 ppg / 8.02% sack / 1.09% int
Key Player: Jake Haener
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Alvin Kamara, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Juwan Johnson, Kevin Austin Jr., Foster Moreau (on/off), Cedrick Wilson Jr., Dante Pettis (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jeremy McNichols (on/off)
Lineup Notes:
Quarterback
Jake Haener – QB22/23 DraftKings; QB24/24 FanDuel – Haener looks fairly unplayable in his first action of the season
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara – RB5 points / RB9 value DraftKings; RB5 points / RB13 value FanDuel – Kamara is the one viable option from the Saints in a game carrying a 43.5-point total but a 7.5-point spread in their opponent’s favor. The Saints are carrying just an 18.0-point implied total. Kamara has any-given-slate upside and should see a massive volume share, even beyond his typical 23.7 potential touches per game, given the absence of Derek Carr and presence of Jake Haener at quarterback
Receivers & Tight Ends
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – WR42/49; WR43/44 – mix-and-match option with big play ability and a 19.2-yard ADOT that is among the highest on the slate. Four touchdowns on 2.5 targets per game and drew seven opportunities last week
Juwan Johnson – TE13/TE11; TE14/TE15 – Johnson has three touchdowns on 3.4 targets per game but just sees a 10.39% air yards share, he could continue to see additional targets after picking up five in last week’s game
Kevin Austin Jr. – WR69/65; WR70/67
Foster Moreau – TE26/25; TE26/26 – mix-and-match tight end with scoring dependency, three touchdowns on 2.1 targets per game over a 70% snap share for the season
The Saints essentially boil down to Alvin Kamara as a standalone option this week, they are collectively Stack 21/21 and Stack 23/25 across sites
New York Giants
Game Total: 42.5 / NYG +16.5 (13.0 imp)
Plays: 39.95% rush / 60.05% pass / 14.9 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.5 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 24.5 ppg / 7.74% sack / 1.43% int
Key Player: Tommy DeVito
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Daniel Bellinger, Jalin Hyatt, Devin Singletary (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, Justice Hill (on/off)
Lineup Notes:
Quarterback
Tommy DeVito – QB24/20; QB26/25 – DeVito’s presence, while not much worse than anyone else who has played the position for this team in 2024 (you thought we were done taking shots at Daniel Jones?), drags the Giants to the bottom of the pool on both sites, New York is the lowest-ranked team across the industry this week
Running Backs
Tyrone Tracy Jr. – RB23/RB25; RB24/RB25 – mix-and-match running back that is not showing a path to clear value. Tracy gains a solid 4.7 yards per rush attempt but will continue dealing with some carries and scoring chances going in the direction of veteran Devin Singletary. Tracy has scored five times on the ground but he sees just 10.8 carries and 3.1 targets per game
Devin Singletary – RB52/53; RB58/60
Receivers & Tight Ends
Malik Nabers – WR18/26; WR20/35 – mix-and-match receiver with DeVito throwing him the ball. Nabers still leads the Giants with a massive 11.5 targets per game but he has found the end zone just three times and has checked out of more games than he has scored. Nabers is undeniably talented and should lead the team in volume again but the quality of those chances is very much in question
Wan’Dale Robinson WR36/44; WR46/45 – volume-based mixer with 7.8 targets per game with the ability to leap into double-digits as shown by his 11-target Week 14 game
Darius Slayton – WR54/59; WR65/65 – mix-and-match at best but carries a solid 13.2-yard average depth of target if DeVito can get the ball to him
The Giants are the worst stack of the week on both sites as Stack 24/24 and Stack 26/26
New York Jets
Game Total: 40.5 / NYJ -3.5 (22.0 imp)
Plays: 35.79% rush / 64.21% pass / 19.3 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass / 26.5 ppg / 5.36% sack / 1.13% int
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall (Q; expected), Allen Lazard, Braelon Allen, Tyler Conklin, Xavier Gipson (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Etienne Jr., Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, Josh Reynolds, Tank Bigsby (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers – QB13 points / QB1 value DraftKings; QB15 points / QB11 value FanDuel – Rodgers is a different play across sites, while he does not rank among the top raw point scorers at the position in Week 15, the veteran does spike a QB1 rating for points-per-dollar value on the DraftKings slate. Rodgers climbs somewhat as a FanDuel value but he is not the same play on the blue site
Running Backs
Breece Hall – RB14/13; RB19/26 – Hall is expected to play after missing last week with a knee injury. The running back practiced in full on Friday and should be mostly at full speed but that has amounted to only 4.2 yards per rush attempt with 2.0 before and 2.2 after contact per attempt and four touchdowns on the season. Hall adds another two touchdowns on receptions and he draws 5.2 targets per game to pad his 13.7 carries in a pass-happy offense
Braelon Allen – RB36/37; RB38/42 – falls back to second-string duties with Isaiah Davis lingering to outperform him again
Receivers & Tight Ends
Davante Adams – WR7 points / WR5 value DraftKings; WR6 points / WR12 value FanDuel – Adams had a big week in Week 14 and could be primed for another on Sunday. The receiver has four touchdowns in a partial season and has a longtime connection with Aaron Rodgers, who will look to feed him targets all afternoon. Adams draws 9.6 targets per game for the season and saw 11 last week
Garrett Wilson – WR8 points / WR4 value DraftKings; WR8 points/WR5 value FanDuel – Wilson sees nearly matching volume to Adams, he has a 9.8-target average and saw 10 last week. Wilson has five touchdowns and a 38.38% air yards share that leads the team, though that comes on just a 9.2-yard average depth of target.
Tyler Conklin – TE16 points / TE2 value; TE18/16 FanDuel – Conklin is a value mixer on DraftKings where he rockets to TE2 by points-per-dollar, he has two touchdowns this season and sees just a 4.9-yard average depth of target and an 8.87% air yards share, his upside comes from a few receptions in PPR format or he is touchdown-dependent
Allen Lazard carries interesting upside as a lower-owned play at a low-volume touchdown shot. The receiver connected with his buddy Aaron Rodgers for five touchdowns early in the season before succumbing to injury. Lazard sees a solid 10.4-yard average depth of target and frequent looks in the red zone but there are several mouths to feed above him on the depth chart
The Jets rank as Stack 8 by points and Stack 5 by value on the DraftKings slate, radically different price points on the larger FanDuel slate send them plummeting from Stack 8 by points to Stack 18 by value on FanDuel
Philadelphia Eagles
Game Total: 43.0 / PHI -5.5 (24.25 imp)
Plays: 56.51% rush / 43.49% pass / 26.3 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 18.3 ppg / 6.74% sack / 3.39% int
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: at most two / at least one (this allows for both “naked” Jalen Hurts lineups and multi-player stacks, utilize with max/min exposure rules)
Team Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Grant Calcaterra, Jahan Dotson, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Ainias Smith (large field), Johnny Wilson (Q; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Calvin Austin III, Pat Freiermuth, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson Jr., Scotty Miller
Lineup Notes:
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts – QB5/QB19; QB5/QB8 – Hurts is a weekly presence near the top of the quarterback scoring board, he has an absurd 13 rushing touchdowns with another 16 against just five interceptions in the passing game, the quarterback pairs well with his superstar running back, either of his strong 1/1A receivers, or as a mix
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley – RB2/6 DraftKings; RB2/4 FanDuel – Barkley is simply the best option on every slate, given a 6.1 yards per attempt rushing average with 124.8 yards per game and a path to the all-time rushing record, albeit in a longer season. The running back has been special this season, he has 11 touchdowns on the ground and another two via the pass and his 23.4 potential touches per week is a nearly unrivaled mark around football
Kenneth Gainwell – RB43/45; RB48/46 – no more than a mixer with skill but no volume
Receivers & Tight Ends
AJ Brown – WR9 points / WR41 value DraftKings; WR11 points / WR31 value FanDuel – Brown and his teammates are very expensive because they have been ranked among the top three stacks for raw scoring on a weekly basis all season. The receiver is inside the top-10 individually for points on DraftKings and sits close enough on FanDuel but his value marks are challenging. Brown has four touchdowns on the board and sees a strong 13.1-yard average depth of target to pad his big play ability
DeVonta Smith – WR22 points / WR16 value DraftKings; WR28 points / WR41 value FanDuel – Smith is a very different play from site to site, DraftKings has him underpriced and he leaps to WR16 by value, making him an interesting consideration for cheap scoring. That play does not exist on FanDuel where he slips to WR41 by value. Smith has five touchdowns on the season and he sees a 26.01% air yards share over a 10.0-yard ADOT
Grant Calcaterra – TE21/22; TE21/20 – Calcaterra will fill in for Dallas Goedert again this week, he caught three of three targets for just 16 yards but scored a touchdown last week, he would need to score again to find value in most situations in Week 15
Jahan Dotson, Ainias Smith, and Johnny Wilson are no more than dart throw options on limited volume
Philadelphia is a prime target for stacking, as usual they are expensive but well worth the effort as Stack 2 by points but Stack 15 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 3 by points on FanDuel but dip to Stack 12 by points-per-dollar value on the site. Either in stacks or with standalone shares of priority skill players, Philadelphia options should be in lineups this week even against a Steelers defense that has been good at suppressing opposing scoring in 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total: 43.0 / PIT +5.5 (18.75 imp)
Plays: 51.59% rush / 48.41% pass / 24.8 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass / 18.0 ppg / 8.04% sack / 1.89% int
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Calvin Austin III, Pat Freiermuth, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson Jr., Scotty Miller
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Grant Calcaterra, Jahan Dotson, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Russell Wilson – QB20/22; QB22/23 – Wilson is not showing much value against the strong Eagles pass defense and without his top receiver. Wilson has strong numbers in his limited games, throwing for 8.4 yards per pass attempt with 12 touchdowns against only three interceptions but this is not looking like his week with Philadelphia allowing just 18.0 points per game on 4.3 yards per rush and just 6.1 yards per pass attempt
Running Backs
Najee Harris – RB19/17; RB21/19 – Harris is the presumptive lead back once again, he gains 3.9 yards per rush attempt and has five touchdowns on the ground this season but has not caught a touchdown pass despite 2.8 targets per game. Harris has out-touched Jaylen Warren over the past five games but the split situation is far from ideal for DFS
Jaylen Warren – RB24/23; RB27/24 – Warren gains 4.1 yards per attempt on 7.9 carries per game to Harris’ 17.2-carry average, he has one rushing touchdown but has not scored on his 3.1 targets/game in the passing attack
Receivers & Tight Ends
Calvin Austin III – WR48/40; WR49/52 – Austin will step into the big shoes with George Pickens out in Week 15, he is not currently presenting a major value to the slate at moderate pricing. Austin has four touchdown catches on a 12.5-yard average depth of target and Russell Wilson is not shy about slinging the ball when he has the chance. Austin is slightly more than a dart throw despite the conservative ranking.
Pat Freiermuth – TE15/16; TE16/18 – Freiermuth is probably the “steady” option from the Steelers’ passing game this week, he could see an uptick from the standard 3.8 targets per game and there is a fair amount of touchdown potential with five in the books already this year
Mike Williams – WR44/43; WR56/57 – Williams is a big play threat with a 15.9-yard average depth of target but just 1.9 targets per game and one touchdown on the board this season
Van Jefferson Jr. – WR71/74; WR80/80 – Jefferson is another deep threat with a 12.2-yard ADOT, he has two touchdowns this season but the limited volume makes him very much a dart throw selection
As moderate underdogs in a game with a mid-level 43.0-point total, the Steelers are not an appealing option for stacking or standalone shares outside of a few value darts. Pittsburgh is Stack 22/22 and Stack 24/24 this week
Seattle Seahawks
Game Total: 46.0 / SEA +2.5 (21.75 imp)
Plays: 37.41% rush / 62.59% pass / 23.2 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 21.1 ppg / 7.14% sack / 2.80% int
Key Player: Geno Smith
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njiba, Tyler Lockett, Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant, Jake Bobo (large field), AJ Barner (on/off), Kenny McIntosh (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jayden Reed, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton
Lineup Notes:
Quarterback
Geno Smith – QB14/QB13 FanDuel – Smith is a mix-and-match quarterback option on the deep FanDuel slate. With a 46.0-point total and upside for passing on both sides of this contest this game could start to cook off fantasy points in a hurry. Smith has thrown 14 touchdowns on the season but has an unsightly 12 interceptions while completing 70% of his passes to a mix of three solid receivers. At worst, the Seattle quarterback offers a weekly path to 35+ pass attempts.
Running Backs
Zach Charbonnet – RB8/RB2 FanDuel – Charbonnet is a terrific value option on the FanDuel slate again this week. The running back will fill in for Kenneth Walker once again, he has a 4.1 yards per attempt average for the season but has scored seven times on the ground and once in the passing game. Charbonnet did not disappoint as the chalk value in last week’s game, putting up 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 22 carries and adding 59 yards on seven catches over seven targets. The running back is a priority option in the late game on the blue site but he is no secret
Receivers & Tight Ends
DK Metcalf – WR18/28 FanDuel – Metcalf is the top option for Geno Smith, he has three touchdowns this season but sees a strong 12.7-yard average depth of target over 8.2 looks per game for a 37.64% air yards share
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – WR26/43 FanDuel – Smith-Njiba spiked his way to a 9.1-yard average depth of target and 28.86% of the team’s air yards on 7.8 targets/game this season in a big uptick. The receiver has a team-leading five touchdown catches for the year
Tyler Lockett – WR50/54 FanDuel – Lockett’s output has slipped somewhat since the salad days but he is still a productive receiver who has managed 8.1 yards per target on a 10.5-yard ADOT with a pair of touchdown catches
Noah Fant – TE20/19 FanDuel – Fant has slipped in value with the lack of overall touchdowns among pass-catchers in Seattle, he has not found the end zone in 2024 despite 4.0 targets per game
The Seahawks are a playable Stack 10 by points but they dip to Stack 15 on the FanDuel slate but it is easy to envision this game taking to the air and soaring for fantasy scoring
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Total: 45.0 / TB +3.0 (21.0 imp)
Plays: 42.74% rush / 57.27% pass / 27.9 ppg / 5.1 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 15.9 ppg / 8.18% sack / 2.97% int
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Mike Evans, Cade Otton, Rachaad White, Sterling Shepard (Q; likely), Bucky Irving (Q; expected), Jalen McMillan, Sean Tucker, Trey Palmer (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Ladd McConkey, Gus Edwards, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Stone Smartt, Kimani Vidal (on/off)
Lineup Notes:
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield – QB16/21 DraftKings; QB18/21 FanDuel – with the Chargers locking opponents out of scoring at just 15.9 points per game, the Buccaneers dip badly in fantasy appeal in Week 15. Despite a strong season with 28 touchdown passes on 7.6 yards per attempt, Mayfield is skippable this week, if he is deployed it should primarily be in tandem with Mike Evans
Running Backs
Rachaad White – RB15/8 DraftKings; RB18/18 FanDuel – these may come down somewhat with Bucky Irving now expected to play after making it to questionable entering the weekend. Irving has been limited with a back and hip issue but he will cut into White’s productivity or fully reclaim the opportunities he has seen through the season. White carries the ball 10.0 times per game to Irving’s 10.5 but he outdraws the rookie in the passing game with 3.8 targets to Irving’s 2.9 per game. White has three rushing touchdowns and five receiving touchdowns while Irving’s six scores have all come on the ground.
Bucky Irving – RB26/30; RB28/32 – these will likely climb somewhat in Sunday morning’s update, Irving has been excellent with 5.4 yards per rush attempt this season
Sean Tucker – RB49/48; RB49/51 – already came down when Irving was loaded into projections late in the week, will now almost definitely steal everyone’s touchdowns at no ownership, which he has done three times this season (should not be played outside of very large field contests)
Receivers & Tight Ends
Mike Evans – WR10/25 DraftKings; WR9/23 FanDuel – Evans is a major weapon in the passing game when healthy, he sees an 11.3-yard average depth of target and has seven touchdowns this season. Evans has one touchdown in three games since his return but has been over 65 yards in every contest and over 100 with a 118-yard game that doubled as the touchdown game in Week 13.
Cade Otton – TE10/17; TE13/11 – Otton is a mix-in tight end with touchdown dependency, he has four touchdown catches on the year but sees just a 5.2-yard ADOT on possession plays when not in the red zone
Sterling Shepard – WR41/42 on both sites – Shepard has an 8.9-yard ADOT over just 4.1 targets per game for the season but has more to do when members of this receiving room are missing. Shepard has one touchdown on the board and competition from Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer down the board
Tampa Bay is just Stack 14/19 on DraftKings and Stack 17/21 on FanDuel, they are a better source of standalone plays but even those are somewhat diminished against the tough opponent with just a 21.0-point implied team total
Tennessee Titans
Game Total: 46.0 / TEN +5.0 (20.5 imp)
Plays: 43.26% rush / 56.74% pass / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 27.7 ppg / 5.18% sack / 1.82% int
Key Player: Will Levis
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard (Q; expected), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample (on\off), Tanner Hudson (on\off)
Lineup Notes:
Quarterback
Will Levis – QB19 points / QB4 value DraftKings; QB18/10 FanDuel – Levis is a quarterback who has found his way to the mid-level of the value board in recent weeks simply because he is extremely low-cost. The quarterback is not good. Levis has 12 touchdowns against nine interceptions while completing 64.0% of just 27.2 passes per game for 6.7 yards per attempt
Running Backs
Tony Pollard – RB11/10 DraftKings; RB13/10 FanDuel – Pollard gains a stead 4.4 yards per rush attempt on 16.4 carries per game and crosses our threshold with another 4.1 targets taking him to 20.5 potential touches per game. The running back has four rushing touchdowns on the season but has not found the end zone via the pass. Pollard is a productive rusher but he sees a bit of a volume clip from the presence of Tyjae Spears that could keep him down if things break wrong. This is an easily playable mid-range option that should be rostered on both sites in Week 15 when building multiple entries but is not a priority in the first lineup. Pollard is questionable but expected to play, Spears and Julius Chestnut become value options if he does not.
Tyjae Spears – RB31/28; RB35/36 – Spears is a mix-in option from the edges of plausibility with just a 3.7 yards per attempt average. He has one touchdown on the season and has missed time with injuries
Receivers & Tight Ends
Calvin Ridley – WR16 points / WR6 value DraftKings; WR16 points / WR2 value FanDuel – Ridley is one of the ultimate boom or bust plays in NFL DFS. The speedster has a 14.9-yard average depth of target that puts him in range of big scoring events with ease. Ridley has managed just three touchdowns but he can stack a few big gains on top of one another for solid scores when he does not find the end zone.
Nick Westbrook-Ihine – WR43/56; WR44/47 has eight touchdowns on the season after a strong run of weekly scoring, he is a mix-in option with believable potential for another touchdown catch despite low overall volume with 3.1 targets per game and just two last week
Tyler Boyd – WR50/31; WR58/51 – Boyd spikes to the bottom end of the playable range as WR31 on DraftKings, he has not done very little worth noting this season with zero touchdowns on 3.6 targets per game and a 7.6-yard ADOT
Chig Okonkwo – TE19/15; TE24/24 – Mix-in tight end with two touchdowns on the season but just 3.2 targets per game with a low-end delivery mechanism named Will Levis on the other end
There are better options on the board than the Titans this week as a stack but there is a bit of value showing at Stack 17/16 on DraftKings but Stack 18/10 on FanDuel
Washington Commanders
Game Total: 43.5 / WAS -7.5 (25.5 imp)
Plays: 49.7% rush / 50.3% pass / 28.9 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.0 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 22.5 ppg / 5.89% sack / 2.81% int
Key Player: Jayden Daniels
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, Olamide Zacchaeus, Luke McCaffrey, Jeremy McNichols (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Alvin Kamara, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Juwan Johnson, Kevin Austin Jr., Foster Moreau (on/off), Cedrick Wilson Jr.
Lineup Notes:
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels – QB4/15 DraftKings; QB4/12 FanDuel – Daniels is a high-end option for raw scoring with a high price tag on both sites. The rookie sensation is facing a gettable New Orleans defense that has allowed 5.0 yards per rush and 7.3 yards per pass, though they have an active secondary that can create turnovers. Daniels has thrown 15 touchdown passes and has another six on the ground while completing 70.0% of his 27.85 pass attempts per game, the kid is in play again in Week 15.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr. – RB16/12 DraftKings; RB 16/15 FanDuel – Robinson has eight rushing touchdowns on 4.6 yards per attempt over 13.8 carries per game but his 1.6 targets do not push the volume particularly high despite an offense that flows freely to the running back position. Robinson’s scoring upside is greater than his yardage potential but a few additional touches would be quite helpful
Jeremy McNichols – RB46/51; RB45/50 – mix and match option with explosive upside but no expectations of volume behind Robinson. McNichols has four touchdown carries this season
Receivers & Tight Ends
Terry McLaurin – WR11 points / WR28 value DraftKings; WR13 points / WR27 value FanDuel – McLaurin slots in with an excellent 13.6-yard average depth of target as the team’s top option. McLaurin has nine touchdown catches this season and carries a massive 40.3% air yards share into action while delivering 10.9 yards per target, he is a key receiver to pair with Jayden Daniels and makes for a fine standalone play even at increased pricing
Zach Ertz – TE11/13; TE9/6 – Ertz is a touchdown-dependent tight end with four touchdowns on the board over 5.8 targets per game, he is a mixer at the position on the Week 15 slate
Dyami Brown – WR58/46; WR67/63 – Brown, as well as Olamide Zaccheaus, and Luke McCaffrey are examples of the top-heavy nature of the Commanders, most of the talent and production sits with Daniels, McLaurin, and Robinson, with Ertz getting his due as well. There are only scraps for these down-chart receivers, all of whom operate on limited depth of target between 4.9 and 6.7 yards
The Commanders rank as Stack 10/12 on DraftKings and Stack 11/16 on the FanDuel slate, their quarterback is the most appealing option on the board, it would not be a wild idea to play a few shares of “naked” Daniels, given appealing construction options across skill positions, though the recommended approach remains stacking in general.
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