NFL DFS – Main Slate Optimizer Groups & Stack Rankings + Full Game Notes (complete) – Week 13 – Thanksgiving Slate

This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video

All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io

Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning

Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.

2024 Week 13 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings

The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.

Week 13 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups

Overview

Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.

Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.

DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options

Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.

Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.

Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.

FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.

Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.

Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.

DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules

This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.

• QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
• optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
• QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)

Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements

Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.

• Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
• Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
• optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)

We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.

Sunday Updates

Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.

NFL DFS Week 13 Thanksgiving Features & FREE Projections

• Week 13 Thanksgiving FanDuel & DraftKings Projections
• Week 13 Thanksgiving Above/Below – Key Picks
• Week 13 Thanksgiving Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
• Week 13 Thanksgiving Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
• Week 13 Thanksgiving Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
• Week 13 Thanksgiving Defense Scoring & Value Rankings

Construction Concept

Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.

Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 13

The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.

The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.

Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.

Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.

Chicago Bears

Game Total: 47.5 / CHI +10.0 (18.75 imp)

Plays: 41.98% rush / 58.02% pass / 20.1 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 16.6 ppg / 5.94% sack / 3.54% int

Key Player: Caleb Williams

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet, Roschon Johnson (on/off), Gerald Everett (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Q; likely), Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery (Q; likely), Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, Brock Wright (on/off)

Game Notes: The Bears check into Thursday with the second-lowest implied team total and one of two below 20 points, at 18.75, with only the Giants’ 17.0 landing lower. Chicago’s offense has been something of a roller coaster, living and dying with the performance of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams who got back on track with a strong Week 12 performance. Williams had not thrown a touchdown pass since Week 6, a game in which he connected for a season-high four scores. The Bears were off for the bye in Week 7 but Williams posted four straight games of 231 or fewer yards and zero touchdown passes from Week 8-11. The rookie roared to life against a good Minnesota defense last week, completing 32 of 47 passes for 340 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Williams also ran the ball six times for 33 yards in that game but he has failed to score on the ground while running the ball only 5.0 times per game for 6.2 yards per attempt on the season. The Bears run a concentrated offense which is straightforward for stacking, they have three excellent high-volume receivers, a strong pass-catching tight end, and a mid-level running back before projection values fall off a cliff. DJ Moore and Keenan Allen both got on the board with touchdowns last week. Moore caught seven of seven passes for the second week in a row, posting 106 yards and a touchdown to lead the team. Allen caught nine of a team-leading and season-high 15 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown. Rookie Rome Odunze was underwhelming, the deep threat is a hit-and-miss option in his first NFL season. Odunze was targeted 10 times for the second straight game, his third game in double-digit targets this season. The rookie caught six passes for 65 yards two weeks ago and five for 39 yards in Week 12, he needs to find more production and chemistry with his quarterback but the target volume is excellent on Odunze’s team-leading 13.6-yard average depth of target. Odunze picks up 34.06% of the air yards, more than Allen at 23.07% on an 8.6-yard ADOT and Moore at 23.46% on an 8.2 yard depth of target over 7.3 targets per game. Between the two veterans, Allen is now slightly outpacing Moore’s average with 7.9 targets per game. Moore has found paydirt four times to lead the group, Allen has three touchdowns and Odunze has a single score on the season. Tight end Cole Kmet sees steady volume as well, picking up 4.3 targets per game with Williams throwing the ball 33.82 times on average. Kmet has three touchdown catches on the season, he lands as TE4 by points and TE5 by value on DraftKings and TE4/4 on FanDuel on the short slate. Kmet also drew 10 targets in last week’s game, his second time in double-digits this season. The tight end caught seven of those passes for 64 yards but failed to score. Kmet has enough involvement and talent up and down the field to make him more than a touchdown-dependent tight end, he is playable on the short slate. D’Andre Swift averages 4.0 yards per rush attempt on 15.3 carries per game, he has five rushing touchdowns on the season and checks into the slate as RB7 across the board on both sites. Swift is only a medium talent at the position but he is playable and compares favorably to running backs not on the Lions or Packers. The Bears have Roschon Johnson in the backfield as well but his volume has been even more limited in recent weeks. Johnson carried the ball twice for two yards last week but did come away with his second poached touchdown in two games. He had one catch on one target in each of those two games as well. The Week 11 game at least saw Johnson earn his touchdown with 10 carries for 33 yards along the way. The running back is a mixer on the short slate, he is not reliable but he provides an interesting path to a potential score at low popularity and minimal cost. Johnson is RB10/10 on DraftKings and RB10/12 on FanDuel. Gerald Everett and Marcedes Lewis both went untargeted last week and barely register in the passing game for the season. Collin Johnson and DeAndre Carter are another pair of low-volume pass catchers at the receiver position. Carter ran one route in each of the last three games, Johnson dressed for the third time all season last week and played 13 snaps on special teams but zero with the offense, they are not options. The Bears quality is concentrated between the Williams, who lands as QB3 by points and QB1 by points per dollar on DraftKings and QB3/2 on FanDuel, and his receiving group. Moore is WR6 by points and WR7 by value on DraftKings and WR6/8 on the blue site. Allen is WR7 by points and leaps to the top WR spot by value on DraftKings, he is WR7 by both points and value on FanDuel. Odunze is WR11/10 on both sites. With all three options looking playable on a short slate, and Kmet getting into the mix as well, there is plenty of upside for individual shares of Bears skill players and there is room for the team as a value approach to building a small-slate stack despite their bottom-end rankings.

Chicago lands as Stack 5 by points and Stack 3 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 6 by points and Stack 5 by value on FanDuel on the Thursday slate

Dallas Cowboys

Game Total: 37.5 / DAL -3.5 (20.5 imp)

Plays: 33.94% rush / 66.06% pass / 20.1 ppg / 3.7 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 5.2 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 22.9 ppg / 10.56% sack / 0.33% int

Key Player: Cooper Rush

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Rico Dowdle, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, Luke Schoonmaker, KaVontae Turpin, Ezekiel Elliott (on/off), Brevyn Spann-Ford (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Malik Nabers, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson, Devin Singletary (on/off), Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt

Game Notes: The Cowboys should benefit from playing a terrible Giants team that has completely given up on their coaching staff and general manager, is a wreck on offense, is between quarterbacks, and can do nothing on defense but get to the quarterback. New York has a league-leading 10.56% sack rate but yields 22.9 points per game on 5.2 yards per rush attempt and 7.8 yards per pass. Even a backup should be able to exploit a poor defense like New York and Cooper Rush has been at least competent at the helm for Dallas in his last two starts. Rush completed 32 of 55 passes for 354 yards with a touchdown and an interception in Week 11 then put up 247 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a clean 24-32 passing in Week 12. Even with the Giants bearing fangs in the pass rush, the quarterback should be able to handle his business and connect with superstar receiver CeeDee Lamb while running back Rico Dowdle pokes holes in the Giants’ terrible rush defense. Lamb ranks as WR2/3 on DraftKings and WR3/5 on FanDuel, largely with a hit to his upside from the quarterback pairing. The receiver has four touchdown catches on a team-leading 10.7 targets per game and a 7.9-yard average depth of target this season. Lamb is expensive but he is one of only a few top-end wide receivers on this slate, he is a playable top shelf receiver on both sites. Lamb caught 10 of 12 targets but put up a mere 67 yards while failing to score for the fourth-straight game. The receiver is a volume monster, however, his 12 targets were the second time in a row he has hit that mark and he has been in double-digits in every game beginning with Week 6. Lamb is one of the true options for a bonus and multiple touchdowns as a ceiling on this slate. Brandin Cooks will be back for the first time since Week 4, he had been mostly ineffective over the first few weeks of the season and his quality for DFS purposes tomorrow is a potentially large looming question mark. Over four games, Cooks averaged just 4.8 yards per target on 4.8 targets per game despite a 12.8-yard average depth of target. The receiver got on the board with a touchdown catch in Week 1 but that was his only score of the season heading into Week 13. Cooks is a mixer as WR14/13 and WR14/12 for points/value across DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. Jalen Tolbert is WR15 by points and WR16 by value on DraftKings and WR15/15 on FanDuel but he could provide additional upside if Cooks is not at full ability. Tolbert caught two of four targets for 22 yards and a touchdown last week and has at least two catches in every game since Week 2. Tolbert rivals Cooks with a 12.3-yard average depth of target that makes him a big play threat, he will most likely be further off of the public’s radar than Cooks. KaVontae Turpin slots in even further down the board. The explosive gadget player is difficult to project for any reliable success but he has some of the top big-play ability on the slate and the Cowboys have been calling his number frequently. Turpin caught three of three passes for 86 yards and a touchdown in Week 11. The dynamic player dipped to just one catch on one target in Week 12, playing 12 snaps with the offense after seeing 23 the week before, but Turpin ran a kickoff back for a touchdown on special teams (en route to 179 kick return yards that don’t score). Turpin is more of a dart throw than his counterparts at the position and he is in competition down the depth chart with the likes of Jalen Brooks and Jonathan Mingo. Brooks drew three targets last week and averages 2.7 on a strong 14.0-yard average depth of target but he has caught only two of nine targets over the past two games and has a mere nine catches all season despite drawing regular looks and a total of 27 targets. Mingo played 24 snaps but caught zero of four targets in his Week 11 debut with the team then dipped to just 15 snaps and two targets, though he caught one for eight yards, in Week 12. Brooks and Mingo are potentially more desperate dart throws than Turpin. Ezekiel Elliott is gaining just 3.2 yards per rush attempt this season. Elliott carries the ball 5.8 times per game and has two touchdowns on the board this season but his value is extremely thin. Backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker will take the lead role again with Jake Ferguson out. Schoonmaker caught three of four passes for 55 yards and a touchdown last week and was targeted 10 times in Week 11, catching six balls for 56 yards. Given the recent involvement, a touchdown last week, and three catches of more than 20 yards over the past two games, Schoonmaker is easily on the board again in Week 13. The tight end drops in as TE6/6 on both sites but he has upside for more and could see a bump in morning projections. Backup Brevyn Spann-Ford has a touch of value beyond a randomly poached touchdown as well, he has been targeted seven times in the past two games, catching six passes for 66 yards combined. The Cowboys DST is also an interesting consideration. The Giants are offensively offensive, the team was no better with third-stringer Tommy DeVito than with washout Daniel Jones, though they will see a bit of an uptick from Drew Lock who actually has the talent of an NFL backup rather than a North Jersey car salesman. Lock is the currently expected starter but DeVito is fighting to play after an MRI on Wednesday, he is questionable overnight. Either way, the Giants are targetable even with a middling Cowboys defense, Dallas ranks as DST 2 by points and DST 1 by value on both sites.

The Cowboys rank as Stack 4 by points but Stack 2 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 4 by points and Stack 3 by value on the FanDuel slate this week

Detroit Lions

Game Total: 47.5 / DET -10.0 (28.75 imp)

Plays: 51.15% rush / 48.85% pass / 32.7 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 9.0 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass / 19.7 ppg / 7.98% sack / 2.79% int

Key Player: Jared Goff

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Q; likely), Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery (Q; likely), Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, Brock Wright (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet

Game Notes: There is a strong path to success running through the Lions ground game this season and on the Thursday slate. Detroit has managed to Voltron-together the best running back in the league by feeding 27.2 carries per game to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery who have turned those opportunities into absurd production. Gibbs gains 5.8 yards per rush attempt this season as the more explosive option but Montgomery is not bad at 4.4 yards per attempt on more grindy opportunities. Gibbs picks up 14.0 carries and 2.9 targets per game while Montgomery sees 13.2 carries and 2.4 targets, both running backs are heavily involved in everything this team does. Montgomery leads the way on the ground with 11 rushing touchdowns but Gibbs has him tied from scrimmage with 10 rushing touchdowns and a bonus score in the passing game. The Lions running backs rank as terrific options across sites on Thanksgiving. Gibbs lands as RB1 by points and RB3 by value on DraftKings and RB1/4 on the FanDuel slate while Montgomery is RB6/6 on DraftKings and RB6/5 on FanDuel. Given the volume, production, and significant touchdown scoring potential on a very short slate, it is easy and potentially advantageous to play both Lions running backs together in a subset of lineups. Of course, the quality does not end in the ground game for the Lions. The team leads the NFL in scoring with 32.7 points per game and they have a terrific passing attack that gains a league-leading 9.0 yards per pass attempt. Quarterback Jared Goff has thrown 20 touchdown passes against nine interceptions while throwing just 27.82 passes per game. Goff averages 251 yards per game given the excellent big play numbers he is able to create with weapons in the passing game, the team has nearly unrivaled regular big play potential. Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable but expected to play after a full Wednesday practice, which is also the case for Montgomery in Week 13. St. Brown leads the team with 7.7 targets per game and nine touchdown receptions this year. The receiver is one of the top scorers in the league at his position, he is a premium option on this and any slate and he ranks as WR1 by points and WR2 by value on both sites for the Thanksgiving game. With 30.26% of the team’s air yards, St. Brown is a significant option but he is not the extreme downfield threat that Jameson Williams represents on the other side. Williams has a team-leading 32.15% air yards share on a 14.1-yard average depth of target that also leads the team. The receiver has issues staying on the field but he is a terrific DFS play in large field tournaments whenever he is on the field. Williams is WR8 by points and WR12 by value on DraftKings, on FanDuel he ranks as a fantastic value as WR8 by points but WR1 by value. Sam LaPorta has three touchdown catches on 3.8 targets per game this season. The tight end has seen reduced overall volume but has still managed 10.1 yards per target. LaPorta has seen more frequent targeting in recent games as well, picking up six targets in three of the team’s last four games with eight of those coming in the red zone. LaPorta projects as TE2 by points and TE1 by value on DraftKings and TE3/3 on FanDuel, he is an excellent option at the short position on either site. Tim Patrick is a mix-in option at wide receiver. Patrick caught all four of his targets and picked up 55 yards in the team’s Week 12 game, he is the next man up on the depth chart but the overall volume is very thin with the two-headed monster running back and three higher-priority targets. Patrick has a 10.9-yard average depth of target that puts him in big play range but he has yet to score this season and ranks as only WR16/15 and WR16/16 on the short slate. Brock Wright is relegated to backup duties with LaPorta in action but he caught a touchdown on a five-yard grab on his only target in Week 11 and caught two of two for 24 yards last week. Overall the Lions look like a premium stacking option and an excellent source of standalone players on this three-game slate. The team is by far the slate’s heaviest favorite at -10.0 and they draw the highest implied team total at 28.75, which would be below their scoring average. Detroit offers options at every position, they are a potential cornucopia of DFS scoring on Thanksgiving.

The Lions are Stack 1 by points and Stack 4 by value on DraftKings and Stack 1 by points and Stack 2 by value on FanDuel

Green Bay Packers

Game Total: 47.5 / GB -3.0 (25.25 imp)

Plays: 50.95% rush / 49.05% pass / 26.2 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 8.2ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 21.5 ppg / 5.59% sack / 1.97% int

Key Player: Jordan Love

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Bo Melton (large field), Chris Brooks (on/off), Emanuel Wilson (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Odell Beckham Jr., Malik Washington (large field)

Game Notes: The Packers are carrying the second-highest implied team total on the slate as three-point favorites in a game with a 47.5-point mark in Vegas, they should be a strong stack from the late game on both sites on the three-gamer. Green Bay is a competent offense facing a team allowing only a moderate amount of scoring while limiting passers to just 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Still, the appeal for the Packers is clear and the DFS options are slightly more consolidated with Romeo Doubs out for Week 13. The receiver’s absence puts Dontayvion Wicks on the board as the third receiver behind both Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. Reed is the team’s most dynamic player, he gains 12.9 yards per target on just an 8.4-yard average depth of target over 4.7 opportunities per game and has scored four times in the passing attack and once on the ground. Watson is the team’s deep threat, he carries a gigantic 18.2-yard ADOT and a 21.74% air yards share despite just 3.4 targets per game. Watson is on the board for a pair of touchdowns this season but the absence of Doubs’ 5.3 targets per game on a 12.8-yard ADOT should create additional chances for the top options while allowing the talented Wicks to get on the board as well. Wicks has four touchdown catches already this season, despite just 4.2 targets per game and three or fewer in each of the last four games. Wicks is another big target downfield for the team’s strong quarterback, he operates on a 12.0-yard average depth of target and has major big play ability. At quarterback, Jordan Love slots in as QB2 by points and QB3 by value on DraftKings while landing as QB2 by points and QB1 by value on FanDuel. Love has three excellent receivers and a good tight end as well as a highly dependable veteran running back to help the offense march down the field. The quarterback has thrown 18 touchdowns but has also lost 11 interceptions on the season. Love averages 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 9.1 intended air yards per attempt, the team is not afraid to fire the ball downfield, their big play nature makes them ideal for tournament upside, particularly in combination with the similar upside of Lions receivers. Love throws the ball 31.11 times per game, completing 62.0% of his pass attempts for 249.33 yards per game but he has been over 300 yards just once this season, with mistakes cutting into drive length and scoring. Overall, this is an excellent quarterback who should be highly utilized on the short slate. When considering that the highly-ranked quarterback pairs with Reed as WR5/4 on both sites, Watson as WR9/6 on both, and Wicks as WR13/11 on DraftKings and WR12/13 on FanDuel, Love simply gains ground. The quarterback is not as highly owned as he should be on a short slate with at least one very low end positional option. Josh Jacobs checks into the slate as RB2/2 on DraftKings and RB3/3 on FanDuel, he is a premium play at the top of the board. The veteran gains 4.7 yards per rush attempt on solid volume with 18.4 carries per game and he has scored seven times this season. Jacobs has one receiving touchdown on the board as well, though his involvement in the passing game is limited to 2.7 targets on a -0.6-yard average depth of target over which he gains 6.2 yards per target. Jacobs is affordable at $7,000/$7,800 across sites, he is projected for significant popularity but simply seems like quality chalk and a great volume play on the short slate. Tight end Tucker Kraft is another strong play from the Packers and he lands at a fair price on both sites. Kraft is TE3/3 on DraftKings and TE2/2 on FanDuel. While he does not get down the field like his friends at the wide receiver position, Kraft maximizes the value of his 3.8 targets on a 5.2-yard ADOT with six touchdown receptions to lead the team. The tight end has been one of the better scorers at his position this season but it must be noted that he has seen only three total targets over the teams last two games. Two of those chances were caught for a touchdown and 26 yards last week, and Kraft sees more opportunities and could get a target bump with Doubs absent, so the dip is more a curiosity than a problem. Bo Melton could get on the field for a few routes and fewer targets. Melton played 23 snaps with the offense last week, his largest snap count since Week 6, he ran nine routes and was targeted once. Melton caught that pass for five yards and an insignificant fantasy score. The receiver has not caught more than one pass in any game this season and peaked with 28 yards in Week 4. Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson see a handful of touches each week. Wilson gains 4.7 yards per rush attempt on 6.0 carries per game and has a rushing touchdown on the board while Brooks gains just 3.8 yards per attempt but 7.1 yards per target in the passing game to Wilson’s 3.8, although again it is Wilson who has a receiving touchdown. Brooks out-snapped Wilson in Week 12, but Wilson gained 41 yards on nine carries over his limited 13 snaps. Brooks played 24 snaps but carried the ball just four times for 11 yards and caught his lone target for 15. Neither running back is more than a mixer in the mid-teen rankings. The Packers are a premium stack on the short slate, they offer a lot of quality from the late night position and should be heavily rostered for stacks and standalone plays.

Green Bay is Stack 2 by points and Stack 1 by value on both sites this week

Miami Dolphins

Game Total: 47.5 / MIA +3.0 (22.25 imp)

Plays: 45.14% rush / 54.86% pass / 19.5 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 20.3 ppg / 7.32% sack / 3.22% int

Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Odell Beckham Jr., Malik Washington (large field), Jaylen Wright (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Bo Melton (large field)

Lineup Notes: With the Lions as monster favorites in one game and the other checking in at just a 37.5-point total, the contest between the Dolphins and Packers could be an interesting source of fantasy scoring at the end of the night. The Packers are favored by three in a game carrying a 47.5-point total that equals the mark in the Detroit vs Chicago game. The Dolphins are underdogs but still pick up a 22.25-point total that ranks third-highest on the six-team slate. Miami is on the board for stacking and individual shares with star power at several positions. The difference between the Dolphins offense with Tua Tagovailoa and what the Dolphins were getting on offense with backup quarterbacks is like the difference between an ocean-dwelling mammal and a brick. Tagovailoa has the Dolphins clicking, popping, and dancing on their tails again with 288 yards and three touchdown passes on 28 of 36 in Week 11 and 317 yards with four touchdowns on 29-40 passing in Week 12. Tagovailoa connected with Jaylen Waddle for 144 yards and a touchdown on eight catches over nine targets and he found Tyreek Hill five times on six targets for 48 yards. Hill was a letdown last week after scoring in each of the previous two games but he remains a tremendous talent with explosive DFS scoring potential on any given slate. Hill is the lead WR on the Dolphins and should be rostered accordingly in the team’s aggressive passing attack. Hill is WR4 by points and WR8 by value on DraftKings and ranks similarly as WR4/9 on FanDuel. Hill gains 7.7 yards per target on an 11.2-yard average depth of target, his upside extends beyond what is visible in rankings/projections when considering his big play potential on a short slate. Waddle is WR10 by points and WR9 by value on DraftKings and WR10/11 on FanDuel on Thanksgiving, he is easily on the board in his own right after the big Week 12 game. Waddle was underperforming most of the season, though most of that was through no fault of his own. The receiver gains 9.8 yards per target on a 9.3-yard average depth of target while hauling in 3.7 of 5.1 targets per game this season but his production was held in check by bad quarterback play early and he has only two touchdowns on the board. Jonnu Smith has been excellent this season. The tight end gains 8.5 yards per target on 5.7 targets per game with a 15.76% air yards share and a team-leading four receiving touchdowns. Smith picked up 11 targets in the team’s Week 12 game, catching nine of them for 87 yards and a touchdown. The tight end had six catches for 101 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets in Week 11, his role has seemingly grown and he has become a reliable end zone target. Smith has been targeted in the red zone six times in the past two games, yielding three scores, he is TE1 by points and TE2 by value on DraftKings and sits as TE1/1 on the FanDuel slate. Odell Beckham Jr. and Malik Washington are splitting a limited third receiver role with 3.5 targets per game combined. Beckham has seen more consistent opportunities but has failed to score or do much at all. The receiver has returned 3.0 yards per target on his 7.0-yard average depth of target over 2.1 opportunities per game, which seems difficult to accomplish. Washington at least has provided 4.2 yards per target but that is only better by comparison, neither receiver has been productive even when considering them in limited volume sense, but on a short slate they are dart throw options given the regular chances. Beckham is WR17/17 across the board while Washington is WR22/21 on both sites. The targets down board are limited because the Dolphins feed touches to De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert on the ground while heavily targeting the top three pass-catchers. Achane has been more frequently invovled with 12.0 carries per game but Mostert picks up 7.5, putting the combined volume for the position at a high level. Achane adds 5.0 targets per game as one of the more involved pass-catchers at the position, padding his value to 17 potential touches, a significant mark on a short slate. Mostert only draws 1.6 targets per game and has not scored in the passing game while Achane has five receiving touchdowns. Mostert has run the ball in twice but his production has been limited to 3.6 yards per rush attempt while Achane gains 4.3 yards per attempt and has three rushing touchdowns. Achane is RB3 by points and RB5 by value on DraftKings and RB4/6 on FanDuel while Mostert is a solid small slate mixer as RB9 across the board.

The Dolphins are Stack 3 by points but Stack 6 out of six by value on both sites on Thanksgiving, they are an interesting late-game angle for potentially high scoring and should at least be considered for individual player shares if not stacks

New York Giants

Game Total: 37.5 / NYG +3.5 (17.0 imp)

Plays: 41.24% rush / 58.76% pass / 14.8 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass / 29.0 ppg / 8.16% sack / 2.54% int

Key Player: Drew Lock (Tommy DeVito is a game-time decision)

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Malik Nabers, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, Devin Singletary (on/off), Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson, Jalin Hyatt (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Rico Dowdle, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, Luke Schoonmaker, KaVontae Turpin, Ezekiel Elliott (on/off)

Lineup Notes: The Giants will either have NFL backup Drew Lock or future reality show cast member Tommy DeVito at quarterback in Week 13. In either case, this would be a difficult situation given the 17.0-point implied team total that one can find in the slate’s basement. The Giants are simply bad on offense but Lock would represent the best quarterback they have had in place this season. The 28-year-old saw the most significant action of his career in his second season in 2020 with Denver. Lock played in 13 games that season, completing 254 of 443 pass attempts for 2,933 yards and 16 touchdowns but also threw 15 interceptions. Lock was relegated to backup snaps since, he played six games and threw for 787 yards but only two touchdowns with two interceptions the following year then missed 2022. Lock played in four games, starting two, for Seattle last season, throwing three touchdowns against two interceptions in the starts. Lock completed 22 of 31 for 269 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in Week 14 against San Francisco then threw one touchdown while completing 22 of 33 pass attempts for 208 yards in Week 15 against Philadelphia. If Lock plays, he ranks as QB5 by points but QB2 by value for $4,500 on DraftKings. Lock is QB5 by points and just QB4 by value on FanDuel for $6,400, a very different price point on the short slate. If DeVito plays, and we continue to hope that he does not, he would rank as QB6 by points and would similarly show value upside simply by virtue of being cheap on DraftKings. DeVito is radically overpriced for his talent on FanDuel. The quarterback played last week against the Buccaneers quarterback-friendly pass defense, he completed 21 of 31 for 189 yards and did not lead the team to a touchdown in the passing game en route to a low-scoring loss that is likely to be replicated this week. The Giants are facing a Cowboys defense that has a solid sack rate at 8.16% but one that is easy to poke holes in given the 4.8 yards per rush attempt and 8.2 yards per pass that they have allowed this season. Dallas has yielded 29.0 points per game, this should be a good spot for New York but the Giants are simply that bad. Malik Nabers is not bad, though his ongoing bumps and bruises are less than ideal. Nabers draws ridiculous target volume in this offense at 11.4 per game, he has been among the league leaders for volume all season and that is unlikely to change regardless of which quarterback is throwing the ball to him. Nabers is WR3 by points and WR5 by value on DraftKings and WR2 by points and WR3 by value on FanDuel this week, he is an easy click on either site given the volume and talent involved. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been the other good news on offense this season. Tracy gains a terrific 5.1 yards per rush attempt and has scored three times on the ground in the process of stealing this job from Devin Singletary who has been stuck with backup volume in recent weeks. Singletary is a limited talent at the position, he has never had a 1,000-yard rushing season and is unlikely to reach that mark after a year like this in his age-27 season. The veteran is gaining 4.1 yards per rush attempt on 8.9 carries per game, he has three rushing touchdowns and zero as a receiver. Tracy has picked up 2.5 targets per game, the converted wide receiver (in college) has good hands and should continue to be an option out of the backfield. Between the two, Tracy is the clear go-to option, but Singletary did poach a touchdown just last week, scoring on one of his two carries and gaining three total yards on the ground and another seven on his two catches. Tracy is RB5 by points and RB4 by value on DraftKings and RB5/2 on FanDuel while Singletary is just RB8 across the board on both sites. Wan’Dale Robinson is the team’s second option in the passing game. Robinson sees 8.1 targets per game with upside into the double-digits. The receiver catches just 5.5 passes per game but the quality of his targets has been highly variable this season, he could benefit from a more stable arm. Robinson has two receiving touchdowns on the season but his value is derived from red zone targets or broken plays, given a short 4.4-yard average depth of target that makes him a better PPR play than a FanDuel option. Theo Johnson is up to 3.5 targets per game with one touchdown on the board, the tight end is a mix-in value at best as TE5/4 and TE5/5 on the six-team slate. Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton are mix-in options at the receiver position, either could benefit from a few deep looks from Lock, DeVito less so. Slayton played 33 snaps and ran 21 routes last week but caught zero of his two targets. Hyatt was barely involved through most of the season and when he was targeted he either failed to catch the pass or was thrown something uncatchable. Hyatt did finally hit the board, albeit lightly, in Week 11, catching four of four targets for 39 yards but failing to score. Hyatt and Slayton are no better than deep dart throws at low probability, even on the three-game slate.

New York ranks as Stack 6 by points and 5 by value on the six-team slate on DraftKings, on FanDuel they are Stack 5 by points and Stack 4 by value

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