NFL DFS – Main Slate Optimizer Groups & Stack Rankings + Game Notes (in progress) – Week 4

This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video

All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io

Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning

Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.


 

2024 Week 4 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings

The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back, such as Tony Pollard, can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.

TEAMOPPFD$FDpRankFDvalRankDK$DkpRankDKvalRank
HOUJAC$30,50011$27,60015
SFNE$30,90022$24,80031
PHITB$34,100316$28,10026
CINCAR$31,30049$26,10044
ARIWAS$29,70054$25,00052
MINGB$30,100613$25,90068
BALBUF$30,000715$000
NYJDEN$28,80086$25,20077
BUFBAL$29,10097$000
KCLAC$29,000108$25,600914
NOATL$29,2001112$25,500811
WASARI$26,900125$22,200133
GBMIN$26,200133$23,600129
TBPHI$28,9001419$26,2001019
ATLNO$27,7001517$23,8001110
CLELV$25,4001611$22,6001613
INDPIT$27,1001721$24,4001520
JACHOU$25,5001814$23,3001416
CHILAR$26,2001920$23,6001718
LARCHI$26,1002023$22,8002022
LVCLE$23,9002110$21,6001815
PITIND$24,5002218$20,7001912
CARCIN$24,9002322$21,4002117
LACKC$25,7002426$21,5002224
DENNYJ$22,8002524$19,9002321
NESF$23,6002625$19,9002423

Week 4 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups

Overview

Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.

Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.

DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options

Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.

Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.

Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.

FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.

Global Exposure Settingallows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.

Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.

DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules

This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.

  • QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
  • optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
  • QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)

Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements

Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.

  • Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
  • Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
  • optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)

We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.

Sunday Updates

Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.


NFL DFS Week 4 Features & FREE Projections

 


Construction Concept

Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.

Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 4

The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.

The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.

Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when there is a situation with an extremely highly projected running back who does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.

Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.


Arizona Cardinals

Game Total: 49 / ARI -3.5 (26.25 imp.)

Plays: 47.43% rush / 52.57% pass / 27.3 ppg

oppDEF: 5.1 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass / 29.3 ppg / 4.0% sack

Key Player: Kyler Murray

Setting: at least one

Team Group: Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Elijah Higgins

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown (very large field)

Lineup Notes: Arizona is missing a major weapon with tight end Trey McBride out for Week 4. The Cardinals remain a high-end overall option that rates as a strong option as Stack 5 by points and 2 by value on DraftKings and Stack 5/4 on FanDuel. Quarterback Kyler Murray has thrown five touchdowns to one interception in a strong start that has seen him complete 7.4 yards per pass attempt on mid-level volume with 28.67 attempts per game. Murray adds ability in the run game, he has carried the ball for a terrific 10.7 yards per attempt on five attempts per game. Murray ranks as QB1/2 on DraftKings and QB1/4 on FanDuel, he gains significant potential from a weak Washington pass defense that has been a target for opposing DFS units going back to previous seasons. Washington ranks 29th with 8.0 yards allowed per pass attempt while sitting 29th with 5.1 yards allowed per rush attempt this season, and they have generated a limited pass rush. Murray should have plenty of opportunity to connect with premium rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. who has been fully cleared to play. Harrison caught just five of his 11 targets in Week 4 but still hit paydirt with a touchdown and had a solid 64 yards. His Week 2 performance was the strongest to date, he caught four of eight passes for 130 yards and scored twice. Overall, Harrison has a 44.4% air yards share on a 16.6-yard ADOT with 7.3 targets per game. The rookie will be joined by Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch, who are affordable receivers who have amounted to 14.69% and 18.4% of the team’s air yards share on 9.6 and 9.3-yard ADOT respectively. While neither player is a go-to option, they have seen regular targets with 4.3 and 5.3 per game, though Wilson had the clear favored share with eight catches on nine targets to Dortch’s three on six targets in Week 3. While neither receiver rates well, they should both see an uptick in opportunity with McBride missing against a weak pass defense. Elijah Higgins played 32% of the team’s snaps last week, running a route on eight of those 18 plays and drawing one target, which he caught for an 11-yard gain. Higgins should see a significant bump in opportunity with McBride out, he has four catches with one touchdown on the board this season. Higgins is positioned as a wide receiver on the FanDuel slate again this week, he is a tight end on DraftKings. Veteran running back James Conner slots in as RB9 by points and RB11 by value on DraftKings and RB11/10 on FanDuel. The running back has gained 4.1 yards per attempt on 15.3 carries per game to start 2024. Conner has scored twice on the ground while hauling in 1.7 catches for 7.2 yards per target in the passing game but failing to score in his limited chances. Conner is a playable running back with upside as a standalone option in non-stacked lineups as well as in stacks of Cardinals. Trey Benson played behind Emari Demarcado in Week 3, with the latter drawing a 20% snap share. Demarcado has carried the ball 1.3 times per game for 13.3 yards per attempt in a tiny sample that largely comes from a big gain in Week 2. Benson has been limited on the ground, though he did carry the ball 11 times in Week 2, gaining just 10 yards. He has drawn just two targets on nine routes all year, with none of either in Week 3. Conner is the playable running back from this team, remaining active players are simple depth options with Tip Reiman and Travis Vokolek potentially factoring into a minor amount of tight end snaps. The Cardinals are a strong option against a weak defense, they should be able to score at will through the air and on the ground and the Commanders rate like a strong opponent that will keep pace in what could be a good shootout game with options on both sides.

 


Atlanta Falcons

Game Total: 41.5 / ATL -3.0 (22.25 imp.)

Plays: 45.73% rush / 54.27% pass / 16.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass / 14.7 ppg / 9.02% sack

Key Player: Kirk Cousins

Setting: at least one

Team Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Ray-Ray McCloud

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson

Lineup Notes: Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins was just OK again in Week 3. After leading a game-winning drive in a decent Week 2 performance that saw him throw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, Cousins managed 230 yards with a touchdown but also threw an interception on 20-29 passing. Atlanta offers playable but not premium volume in the passing game, Cousins has averaged 28 attempts per game while throwing for 7.5 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and three interceptions. The veteran had an outstanding start to last year with multiple 300-yard games prior to his injury and he has similar weapons in this offense, it would not surprise to see him have a strong game against what has been a mid-level defense early in 2024. Cousins has Bijan Robinson in the running game, he ranks as RB6/6 on both sites and looks like a fair play this week against a New Orleans front that has allowed 4.5 yards per rush attempt this season. Robinson has carried the ball 16 times per game for 4.1 yards per attempt and he has scored once this season. The running back also draws four targets per game and he has 3.7 receptions per game for 7.4 yards per target on a -2.4-yard ADOT for the season. Robinson is easily in play on either site this week, both in stacks of Falcons and in other lineups. Drake London has an 8.2-yard average depth of target with 28.39% of the team’s air yards share and a pair of touchdowns on 6.3 targets per game to start the season. London has seen more targets each week over the first three games, drawing nine last week and hauling in six of them for 67 yards and a touchdown. Kyle Pitts has been underwhelming at the tight end position this season. He has an 18.99% air yards share with one touchdown on the board while drawing 4.0 targets per game and provides tempting value at TE5/5 on DraftKings and TE6/3 on FanDuel. Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III are interesting weapons in the passing attack, Mooney ranks as WR33 by points but WR19 by points-per-dollar on DraftKings. Over three games, Mooney has been targeted six times per game with a 9.8-yard ADOT for 32.01% of the air yards share and one touchdown. McCloud has drawn a 23.87% air yards share with an 8.8-yard ADOT on five targets per game while adding 11.5 yards per rush attempt on what amounts to a 20-yard and a three-yard carry. McCloud is a dynamic player who is a career return man, he has speed and breakaway ability, if the team continues to put the ball in his hands he will continue to have value at low prices and limited popularity both in and out of stacks. Tyler Allgeier has seen a few touches in each of the team’s first three games, posting 5.6 yards per rush attempt with 3.3 prior to contact and 2.3 after contact per attempt. Allgeier has drawn just one target in the passing game, his work typically comes from spelling Robinson for a few key carries and he does have the ability to poach touchdowns from the starter. Allgeier is a limited option in a mid-level stack, he rates in the 30s across the board on both sites and would need to score a touchdown to see any shot at value. Any remaining active players are simply depth, Charlie Woener sees a 33% snap share on average but he has been targeted only twice on just eight routes over three games. KhaDarel Hodge has played just four snaps all season, and Ross Dwelley has played just seven. Atlanta is probably a better source of individual upside this week than they are a go-to stacking option, but they are on the board as a mid-level play in a game with a 41.5-point total that sees them pulling just the home-field advantage in the point spread. Robinson and Pitts are strong individual plays while Cousins is just QB17/17 on DraftKings and QB19.20 on FanDuel with London landing playably as WR16/15 and WR19/17. Overall, Atlanta is Stack 11/10 on DraftKings, where they provide more value than their 15/17 ranking on a deeper FanDuel slate.

 


Baltimore Ravens – FD Only

Game Total: 46 / BAL -2.5 (24.25 imp.)

Plays: 52.79% rush / 47.21% pass / 23.7 ppg

oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 4.4 ypa pass / 16.0 ppg / 8.66% sack

Key Player: Lamar Jackson

Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Lamar Jackson stacks)

Team Group: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry (on/off), Justice Hill (on/off), Nelson Agholor (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dawson Knox

Lineup Notes: 

 


Buffalo Bills – FD Only

Game Total: 46 / BUF +2.5 (21.75 imp.)

Plays: 53.99% rush /46.01% pass / 37.3 ppg

oppDEF: 2.8 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 26.0 ppg / 7.87% sack

Key Player: Josh Allen

Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Josh Allen stacks)

Team Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dawson Knox, Mack Hollins (very large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry

Lineup Notes:

 


Carolina Panthers

Game Total: 46.5 / CAR +4.5 (21.0 imp.)

Plays: 40.35% rush /59.65% pass / 16.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 26.7 ppg / 6.49% sack

Key Player: Andy Dalton

Setting: at least one

Team Group: Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, Chuba Hubbard (on/off), Tommy Tremble

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Zack Moss, Tee Higgins, Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, Chase Brown

Lineup Notes: It’s amazing what a veteran quarterback can do with even semi-capable weapons. Andy Dalton stepped into the starting role for Carolina and immediately made the team better. Dalton threw for 319 yards on 26-37 passing, connecting for three touchdown passes in a winning performance. The veteran checks in at a cheap price again this week but he ranks as just QB22/21 and QB24/25 across DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. Dalton is cheap at the position and has potential weapons in receivers Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, though veteran Adam Thielen is out for several weeks. Johnson was limited in practice with a groin injury on Friday, he is currently questionable and he is one to keep an eye on with the team expressing optimism in his availability. Johnson caught eight of 14 targets in a huge 122-yard one-touchdown performance in Week 3, he would be the prime connection with Dalton in stacks. If he does not play, the lead role should fall to Legette. The rookie drew seven targets in Week 1, catching four of them for 35 yards on his 22 routes run. In Week 2, Legette went from 32 to just 20 snaps played and he went untargeted on 14 routes run. He bounced back somewhat last week with 40 snaps, 16 routes run, and two catches on three targets for 42 yards, though he did not find the end zone. With a 20.37% air yards share and aa team-leading 13.1-yard ADOT, Legette is a playable downfield option who would spike for value if Johnson does not go. Jonathan Mingo would also benefit in that scenario. Mingo picked up four targets in Week 3, catching three of them but posting just 18 yards. The receiver had produced just 5.4 yards per target on 9.33% of the team’s air yards. The ground game for Carolina is split between Chuba Hubbard, who played 58% of the snaps last week to the 42% played by Miles Sanders. For the season, Hubbard has gained 5.2 yards per attempt on 12.3 carries per game while Sanders has provided 3.1 yards per attempt on 6.3 carries but has the team’s lone rushing touchdown. Sanders sees 3.3 targets per game but so does Hubbard, he has the receiving touchdown between the pair. Hubbard did see a strong volume advantage that makes him the primary option on the ground in this offense, in Week 3 he had 21 carries and caught five of five passes, rushing for 114 yards and adding 55 yards receiving and a touchdown in the passing game. Hubbard ranks as RB16/9 on DraftKings and RB17.7 on FanDuel in a stack that rates as just Stack 21/17 and Stack 23/22, he is a better option as a standalone running back. Johnson rates as WR18 by points but WR6 by value on both sites, he is an interesting standalone value receiver and the go-to in stacks if he plays, if he does not the depth options would gain value that they currently lack.

 


Chicago Bears

Game Total: 40.5 / CHI -3.0 (21.75 imp.)

Plays: 35.47% rush / 64.53% pass / 17.7 ppg

oppDEF: 5.1 ypa rush / 9.4 ypa pass / 30.3ppg / 4.82% sack

Key Player: Caleb Williams

Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Williams stacks)

Team Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen (Q), Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, DeAndre Carter, D’Andre Swift (on/off), Roschon Johnson (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington

Lineup Notes: Rookie sensation quarterback Caleb Williams was more rookie than sensation or even quarterback over Weeks 1 and 2 but he roared to life in the Bears’ Week 3 defeat. Williams threw the ball 52 times, completing 33 attempts for 363 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though he lost another two passes to the opposing defense. The rookie rushed for just eight yards on one carry, he was focused on the pass attempts throughout the game, the 52 attempts were an uptick from Week 2’s 37 which had been a bump from 29 pass attempts in Week 1, the Bears are giving Williams every opportunity to succeed through the air. The team has premium passing game weapons with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen as an excellent 1/1A combination stacked together or individually, or in non-stacked lineups. The veteran tandem should help Williams throughout the season, Moore has been active and involved, he had eight catches on 10 targets last week and caught six of 10 targets in Week 2 but he has not found the end zone or cracked 100 yards. Even with eight catches in Williams’ breakout last week, Moore posted a limited 78 yards on 53 routes run. Allen played 37 snaps in Week 1, running 23 routes and catching four of 11 targets, we have not seen him since. The receiver got limited practices in this week, he is trending in the right direction but remains questionable and one to watch. Assuming Allen is on the field for the Bears he is immediately stackable for our purposes on either site. The Bears rate as just Stack 17/18 and Stack 19/20, they are playable but not ideally positioned. As individuals, there might be more appeal. Williams rates as QB10/5, a strong value mark on DraftKings, and QB12/8 on FanDuel. Given the player’s ability in the ground game in addition to his excellent passing upside, Williams can provide a significant score in a points-per-dollar sense. Moore is WR15/24 and WR15/14 with Allen playing, he would climb the board somewhat if Allen sits. Allen, meanwhile is WR25/40 and 29/32, he is playable but not enticing. Rookie Rome Odunze broke out alongside his new teammate in Week 3, catching six of the 11 targets that Williams slung in his direction for 112 yards and a touchdown. Odunze had been off to a lukewarm start over two weeks before the explosion but he has shown major downfield ability and opportunity with a 16.5-yard ADOT and 34.13% of the team’s air yards share on 6.7 targets per game. Odunze is a playable mid-level receiver on both sites this week. D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are expected to get most of the volume in the ground game, with an increasing workload going to Johnson and potentially fewer opportunities for both Swift and Khalil Herbert. The three-headed running back situation has virtually no appeal for NFL DFS, Swift has gained 1.8 yards per attempt on 12.3 attempts per game. Johnson did not play in Week 1 and was just on special teams in Week 2 before playing 32 snaps with the offense and gaining 30 yards on eight carries with another 32 yards coming on 4-5 receiving. Johnson ranks as RB35/30 and 38/39 he is a volume-based value dart with only limited upside in a timeshare. Cole Kmet is TE7/14 and TE10/11 across sites, he had a huge Week 3 with 10 catches on 11 targets, putting up 97 yards and a touchdown. Kmet was targeted five times in a more limited Week 2 performance that saw him catch four balls for 27 yards, he is a touchdown-focused mid-board tight end option this week. At the bottom of the depth chart, Gerald Everett and DeAndre Carter have both seen limited opportunities. Everett has drawn 1.7 targets per game with a 41% snap share while Carter has a 56% snap share for the season and an uptick in routes run and opportunity in Weeks 2 and 3. Carter played 46 snaps in Week 2, running 37 routes and drawing four targets. He caught three of those for 32 yards and had a similar three catches for 22 yards in Week 3, though that came on six targets over 38 routes on 52 snaps. Carter is a limited dart throw as a low-ranked WR play but there is viable volume if Allen sits again in Week 4. The Bears rank as Stack 17/18 and Stack 19/20 they are more of a Williams+1 value or a source of individual player opportunities rather than an appealing stack this week.

 


Cincinnati Bengals

Game Total: 46.5 / CIN -4.5 (25.5 imp.)

Plays: 34.32% rush / 65.68% pass / 22.7 ppg

oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 31.7ppg / 5.62% sack

Key Player: Joe Burrow

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Zack Moss (on/off), Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, Chase Brown (on/off), Jermaine Burton (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, Chuba Hubbard (on/off), Tommy Tremble

Lineup Notes: The Bengals offense took a step forward in Week 3 with the return of receiver Tee Higgins and a more productive connection between quarterback Joe Burrow and lead receiver Ja’Marr Chase. The duo connected for their first two touchdowns of 2024, with Chase hauling in six of seven passes for 118 yards after a limited six for 62 in Week 1 and four for 35 in Week 2. Higgins played 54 snaps in his return, running 40 routes and drawing six targets. He caught just three of those for 39 yards and did not score but there is volume and talent-based upside for this week’s WR19/17 on DraftKings and WR21/28 on FanDuel. Chase ranks above his running mate, of course, he sits as WR2/3 on DraftKings and WR2/11 on FanDuel this week. Burrow is QB6/8 on DraftKings and an inverse QB8/6 on FanDuel, he had his first 300-yard game of the season with 324 on 29-38 passing and three touchdowns last week as he continue to knock the rust off to begin the year. Burrow and his two prime weapons are an excellent stack but the team offers RB14/12 and RB14/15 in Zack Moss who has shown bounce and explosiveness early in the year. Moss has gained 4.1 yards per rush attempt on 11 carries per game and has scored twice on the ground already while drawing 3.7 targets and putting up 23.0 yards per game. Chase Brown played 14 snaps to Moss’ 46 last week, picking up just seven carries but exploding for 62 yards. Brown was targeted three times on five routes, catching two passes for limited output. Moss is the more appealing running back with a far greater opportunity, Brown is nothing more than a dart throw with explosive upside. Andrei Iosivas managed to stay relevant despite the return of Higgins, he picked up a season-high seven targets and caught a season-high five passes for 52 yards and a touchdown with a clear role in the offense. Iosivas is unlikely to be popular again this week, he ranks as WR50/47 and WR52/56 as a limited mid-board value play. Mike Gesicki has ability at the tight end position but comes up a bit short on projection in a deep offense, he ranks as TE14/13 and TE16/19 this week. The Bengals have a limited downfield target in Jermaine Burton, who has drawn just two opportunities, both in Week 2, on 12 routes run over three games. Burton has one catch for 47 yards and has drawn a 33.5-yard ADOT in the limited targeting, he is an extremely low-probability dart throw at best. The Bengals are a high-end stack in a game that should provide both pace and scoring this week, they rank as Stack 4/4 on DraftKings and Stack 4/9 on FanDuel against Carolina’s targetable defense. The Panthers have yielded 4.7 yards per rush attempt and 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season, this is an appealing game for stacking on both sites and there are pieces for bring-back plays in either direction.

 


Cleveland Browns

Game Total: 37 / CLE -2.0 (19.5 imp.)

Plays: 33.33% rush / 66.67% pass / 16.7 ppg

oppDEF: 5.4 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass

Key Player: Deshaun Watson

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Jerome Ford, Elijah Moore, Jordan Akins, Cedric Tillman (large field), D’Onta Foreman (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Zamir White, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, Alexander Mattison, Tre Tucker

Lineup Notes: The Browns limited offense runs into a defense that has been low-end to start the season, resulting in a 37-point total that sees Cleveland favored by two on the road. The Browns best weapons are receivers Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy, but the best NFL DFS option this week could easily be running back Jerome Ford who should have a clear path to touches with Pierre Strong out again. Ford is limited himself, however, his knee injury kept him to a limited role in practice this week but he is trending toward playing. In Week 3, Ford carried the ball 10 times and caught three of four targets, putting up 37 yards on the ground and 33 in the passing game over his 52 snaps in the same role. Ford has upside as a three-downs running back against a bad rush defense that sits 31st at 5.4 yards allowed per rush attempt on the season. The Browns are helmed by Deshaun Watson who has not been the same quarterback some still may remember from several seasons ago. Watson has thrown three touchdowns to two interceptions over the first three games, completing just 58.0% of his 38.67 pass attempts per game for an extremely limited 4.8 yards per pass attempt. The quarterback has gained 6.1 yards per attempt on the ground, with a rushing touchdown in the books, on 4.7 attempts per game in limited output overall. Watson connected with Cooper for a pair of touchdowns last week, the receiver had 86 yards on 7-12 receiving while Jeudy managed to catch four of seven targets for just 27 yards. Jeudy got in the end zone in Week 1 and he has solid second-option volume in the passing game. Cooper has a 12.8-yard ADOT with 44.08% of the team’s air yards while Jeudy has a 12.2-yard ADOT and 30.33% of the air yards. Elijah Moore picks up most of the balance at 11.14% on just a 5.5-yard ADOT but 5.7 targets per game. Moore is a dynamic player with game-breaking ability with the ball in his hands, he has gained 4.1 yards per target so far this season in limited output, with six catches for 44 yards standing as his high over three games. Jordan Akins is a capable backup for absent David Njoku, Akins had 29 yards on 4-7 receiving last week, running 36 routes on 44 snaps as a clear option in the passing game. D’Onta Foreman and Cedric Tillman have both played limited snaps this season, they are nothing more than darts from down the depth chart while the remaining options are simply off the board at sub-1.0 NFL DFS projections. Foreman had two carries for five yards last week but put up 42 yards on 14 carries over 25 snaps in Week 2. Tillman has one catch in each of the first three games but just nine yards total for the season. The Browns are Stack 16/13 on DraftKings and Stack 16/11 on FanDuel, they are a limited option this week despite the strong value rating for Watson as QB13/6 on DraftKings. Cooper, Ford, and Jeudy are playable skill options in their roles at varied prices and popularity projections.

 


Denver Broncos

Game Total: 39.5 / DEN +7.5 (16.0 imp.)

Plays: 38.10% rush / 61.90% pass / 17.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 5.4 ypa pass / 17.3 ppg / 14.43% sack

Key Player: Bo Nix

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Greg Dulcich, Devaughn Vele (large field), Marvin Mims Jr. (large field), Javonte Williams (on/off), Jaleel McLaughlin (on/off), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Braeleon Allen, Mike Williams, Tyler Conklin

Lineup Notes: Denver has been a lousy offense this season, scoring just 17.3 points per game with a limited passing attack and middling rushing game. Denver’s rookie savior quarterback Bo Nix has not throw a touchdown pass against the four interceptions that he has tossed away over his first three games. Nix has completed 63.0% of his 37.67 attempts per game, strong volume that could create points-per-dollar potential in a better situation. Nix has completed just 5.3 yards per attempt this season with 3.3 air yards per attempt despite 7.4 intended air yards per attempt. The quarterback has a pair of rushing touchdowns while gaining 5.9 yards per attempt on 6.0 carries per game. Nix shares touches on the ground with running backs Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin, who have gained 2.2 yards per attempt each this season, with Williams drawing eight carries per game to McLaughlin’s six. The volume and the output have been limited early, McLaughlin has the lone touchdown for the pair but Williams outsnaps him on a 2-1 basis with Tyler Badie pulling a couple of backup touches per game. A receiving corps of Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds has not done much to help Nix early in the year. Sutton has seen volume and did catch seven of 11 targets in Week 3 but he has yet to score or crack even 70 yards receiving. Reynolds was targeted twice in Week 3, catching both opportunities. He had 36 yards in limited action but was better and more involved in the first two weeks with 5 catches for 45 yards on eight targets in Week 1 and 4 catches for 93 yards on five targets in Week 2. Lil’Jordan Humphrey is also involved in the passing game this season, he caught six of eight balls for 37 yards last week after a 4-5 performance for 50 yards in Week 2. Humphrey has a 5.2-yard ADOT and just 9.17% of the air yards share, he is making things happen on a limited basis with the ball in his hands but there is not much potential. Marvin Mims Jr. and Devaughn Vele have seen limited action, Vele could be returning after two missed games, he was targeted eight times and caught all eight passes but posted just 39 yards and failed to score in Week 1. The Broncos are Stack 23/21 on DraftKings and Stack 25/24 on FanDuel, they lack even one appealing player this week with Williams’ 13th-ranked running back value mark looking like their best NFL DFS asset.

 


Green Bay Packers

Game Total: 43.5 / GB -3.0 (23.25 imp.)

Plays: 60.33% rush / 39.67% pass / 25.0 ppg

oppDEF: 3.6 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass / 10.0 ppg / 11.59% sack

Key Player: Jordan Love (Q)

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Josh Jacobs (on/off), Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, Ty Chandler

Lineup Notes: 

 


Houston Texans

Game Total: 45 / HOU -5.5 (25.25 imp.)

Plays: 38.0% rush / 62.0% pass / 18.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 28.3 ppg / 4.67% sack

Key Player: CJ Stroud

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, Cam Akers (on/off), John Metchie III (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, Brenton Strange

Lineup Notes: Tank Dell is out. Dameon Pierce is out. Evan Engram is out for Jacksonville.

 


Indianapolis Colts

Game Total: 39.5 / IND -1.5 (20.5 imp.)

Plays: 48.67% rush / 51.33% pass / 19.3 ppg

oppDEF: 3.5 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass / 8.7 ppg / 10.0% sack

Key Player: Anthony Richardson

Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Richardson lineups)

Team Group: Michael Pittman Jr. (Q), Jonathan Taylor (on/off), Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, Kylen Granson

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Najee Harris, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Cordarrelle Patterson, Calvin Austin III

Lineup Notes: Jaylen Warren is out, concentrating the Steelers’ rushing attack as a bring-back option in Najee Harris.

 


Jacksonville Jaguars

Game Total: 45 / JAC +5.5 (19.75 imp.)

Plays: 36.99% rush / 63.01% pass / 13.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass / 24.7 ppg / 13.40% sack

Key Player: Trevor Lawrence

Setting: at least one

Team Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, Brenton Strange, Tank Bigsby (on/of; large field), Parker Washington (very large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods

Lineup Notes: Tank Dell is out. Dameon Pierce is out. Evan Engram is out for Jacksonville.

 


Kansas City Chiefs

Game Total: 40.5 / KC -7.5 (24.0 imp.)

Plays: 46.96% rush / 53.04% pass / 25.0 ppg

oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass / 11.0 ppg / 8.08% sack

Key Player: Patrick Mahomes

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Carson Steele (on/off), Samaje Perine (on/off), Kareem Hunt (on/off), Noah Gray, Justin Watson (large field), JuJu Smith-Schuster (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: JK Dobbins, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Hayden Hurst, Joshua Palmer

Lineup Notes: 

 


Las Vegas Raiders

Game Total: 37 / LV +2.0 (17.5 imp.)

Plays: 30.90% rush / 69.10% pass / 19.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass / 22.3 ppg / 8.49% sack

Key Player: Gardner Minshew

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Zamir White (on/off), Alexander Mattison (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Jerome Ford, Jordan Akins, Elijah Moore, D’Onta Foreman

Lineup Notes: Davante Adams is out. 


Los Angeles Chargers

Game Total: 40.5 / LAC +7.5 (16.5 imp.)

Plays: 55.49% rush / 44.51% pass / 19.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 20.7 ppg / 5.36% sack

Key Player: Justin Herbert

Setting: at least one

Team Group: JK Dobbins (on/off), Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Hayden Hurst, Joshua Palmer, Will Dissly, Simi Fehoko (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Carson Steele (on/off), Samaje Perine (on/off)

Lineup Notes: 

 


Los Angeles Rams

Game Total: 40.5 / LAR +3.0 (18.75 imp.)

Plays: 38.12% rush / 61.88% pass / 19.0 ppg

oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 5.6 ypa pass / 19.0 ppg / 7.37% sack

Key Player: Matthew Stafford

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington, Colby Parkinson

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift

Lineup Notes: 

 


Minnesota Vikings

Game Total: 43.5 / MIN +3.0 (20.25 imp.)

Plays: 47.27% rush / 52.73% pass / 28.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 6.5 ypa pass / 19.3 ppg / 9.73% sack

Key Player: Sam Darnold

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Powell, Johnny Mundt (large field), Josh Oliver (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave

Lineup Notes: 

 


New England Patriots

Game Total: 41.0 / NE +10.5 (15.25 imp.)

Plays: 50.56% rush / 49.44% pass / 13.0 ppg

oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 8.1 ypa pass / 23.0 ppg / 8.99% sack

Key Player: Jacoby Brissett

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Antonio Gibson (on/off), Ja’Lynn Polk, KJ Osborn, Tyquan Thornton

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle

Lineup Notes: 

 


New Orleans Saints

Game Total: 41.5 / NO -3.0 (19.25 imp.)

Plays: 60.69% rush / 39.31% pass / 34.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass / 20.3 ppg / 3.16% sack

Key Player: Derek Carr

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olvae, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, Mason Tipton (large field), Foster Moreau (large field), Cedrick Wilson (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Ray-Ray McCloud, Tyler Allgeier

Lineup Notes: 

 


New York Jets

Game Total: 39 / NYG +3.0 (16.5 imp.)

Plays: 43.43% rush / 56.57% pass / 22.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 5.1 ypa pass / 15.3 ppg / 12.36% sack

Key Player: Aaron Rodgers

Setting: at most one/at least one (at most will allow for “naked” Jones lineups)

Team Group: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Braelon Allen (on/off), Mike Williams, Tyler Conklin

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Devaughn Vele

Lineup Notes: 

 


Philadelphia Eagles

Game Total: 42.0 / PHI -2.5 (22.25 imp.)

Plays: 47.85% rush / 52.15% pass / 23.3 ppg

oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass / 20.7 ppg / 1.69% sack

Key Player: Jalen Hurts

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, Johnny Wilson

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton

Lineup Notes: Devonta Smith is out.

 


Pittsburgh Steelers

Game Total: 39.5 / PIT -1.5 (20.5 imp.)

Plays: 57.14% rush / 42.86% pass / 17.0 ppg

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 20.3 ppg / 7.55% sack

Key Player: Justin Fields

Setting: at most one/at least one (at most will allow for “naked” Fields lineups)

Team Group: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris, Calvin Austin III, Cordarrelle Patterson (large field), Van Jefferson Jr. (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Michael Pittman Jr. (Q), Jonathan Taylor (on/off), Alec Pierce, Josh Downs

Lineup Notes: 

 


 

San Francisco 49ers

Game Total: 41.0 / SF -10.5 (25.75 imp.)

Plays: 48.02% rush / 51.98% pass / 24.3 ppg

oppDEF: 3.7 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 19.0 ppg / 6.90% sack

Key Player: Brock Purdy

Setting: at least one

Team Group: Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Mason, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Chris Conley, Ronnie Bell, Isaac Guerendo (large field), Kyle Juszczyk (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Antonio Gibson (on/off), Ja’Lynn Polk, KJ Osborn, Tyquan Thornton

Lineup Notes: 

 


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game Total: 42.0 / TB +2.5 (19.75 imp.)

Plays: 42.07% rush / 57.93% pass / 21.3 ppg

oppDEF: 5.2 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 21.0 ppg / 4.30% sack

Key Player: Baker Mayfield

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Jalen McMillan, Cade Ottom, Trey Palmer (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, Johnny Wilson

Lineup Notes:

 


Washington Commanders

Game Total: 49.0 / WAS +3.5 (22.75 imp.)

Plays: 53.30% rush / 46.70% pass / 26.3 ppg

oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass / 21.3 ppg / 10.98% sack

Key Player: Jayden Daniels

Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Jayden Daniels lineups)

Team Group: Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, Brian Robinson Jr. (on/off), Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown (large field), Jeremy McNichols (large field; on/off), Olamide Zaccheaus (very large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Elijah Higgins

Lineup Notes: 


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