Tonight’s main slate is split with a 6:40 ET start and seven games on FanDuel and a standard 7:05 start for the remaining six games on the DraftKings slate. FanDuel’s early start will capture the Padres vs Marlins game that has a few interesting pieces available to change the nature of the slate from site to site somewhat. The full board includes several very strong-looking spots for power and run creation. A few teams have either low-end starters from the back of their rotations or replacement parts filling in tonight, which winnows the pitching board and provides some significant opportunities for stacking hitters.
Join us at 3:30 ET for the MLB DFS Lineup Card Show!
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Summary – 5/31/23
San Diego Padres (-116/4.42) @ Miami Marlins (+107/4.17)
The Padres and Marlins are squaring off in the early game on the FanDuel slate with Braxton Garrett getting the home start. Garrett has a 22.6% strikeout rate and 4.50 ERA with a 3.57 xFIP over nine starts and 48 innings this season, roughly similar to the numbers he posted last year. In 17 starts and 88.0 innings in 2022, Garrett struck out 24.1% and had a 3.51 xFIP while successfully checking power at just a 2.41% home run rate on 38.6% hard hits and a 7.2% barrel rate. The lefty has allowed more power this season, barrels have climbed to 9.5% in the small sample with hard hits spiking badly to 47.3% and exit velocity sitting at 91.6 mph, Garrett may be lucky to have only allowed a 3.37% home run rate with that contact profile. For $8,600 Garrett is not bereft of upside, the Padres’ active roster sits just 20th in baseball with a 103 WRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, though their .183 ISO in the split is tied with their opponents for seventh-best in the game, with the difference being that the Marlins are actually baseball’s third-best team for run creation against lefties this season with a 138 WRC+ to go with the sturdy ISO. Garrett is an unlikely option, the path to success is thin and he does not project well, but there is a glimmer of hope for a competitive score on a short pitching slate. The Padres lineup is, naturally, playable against this pitcher as well. The focus with this team is on the top of the lineup, where we find Fernando Tatis Jr. who is the team leader with an 11.86 in our home run model. Tatis has nine homers on the season with five stolen bases and a .219 ISO in 158 plate appearances. Ha-Seong Kim slots into the second spot in the projected lineup, Kim has been four percent better than average for run creation and has a touch of pop with a dash of speed, he has five home runs and eight stolen bases in 185 opportunities this year and was an 11/12 player in 582 tries last season. Juan Soto is a star and one of the best pure hitters in the league, he is slashing .268/.430/.508 with a .240 ISO and 159 WRC+ for just $3,700. Xander Bogaerts is a high-end shortstop who is priced at just $3,100 amidst a bit of a slump. Bogaerts has a 111 WRC+ for the season with seven home runs and six steals in 228 plate appearances, but he is slashing a dismal .196/.282/.261 with a .065 ISO and 58 WRC+ for the month of May. Jake Cronenworth is a mix-and-match piece who comes into the day at exactly league-average for run creation with a 100 WRC+. Nelson Cruz against a lefty was once a thing we salivated over for MLB DFS upside, these days he’s just another right-handed hitter in this lineup. Cruz has three home runs in 108 plate appearances, with two of them coming against lefties. The veteran is slashing .254/.286/.407 with a .153 ISO and 89 WRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Brandon Dixon, Jose Azocar, and Austin Nola round out the weak bottom third for San Diego.
The Marlins, as mentioned above, have been surprisingly productive against left-handed pitching this season. As a unit, the team is slashing .323/.368/.506 in the split, their batting average leads baseball and their collective on-base percentage sits third. The team has a solid handful of capable right-handed hitters to throw at lefty Blake Snell, who will be making his 11th start of an uneven season. Snell has pitched to a 5.04 ERA and 4.71 xFIP for the season with a 23.9% strikeout rate in 50 innings. The southpaw has walked an ugly 13.7% of opposing hitters and he is bogged down by an unsightly 1.56 WHIP, Snell is simply allowing too many opportunities and not throwing enough strikes. He has also allowed too much premium contact and power this season, with a 12.1% barrel rate, 42.1% hard hits, and 89.1 mph of average exit velocity against. Snell projects as one of the top options by raw fantasy points tonight, but this is a very limited slate for pitching upside, so that is not saying much, he is a moving part who should definitely be played tonight, but expectations should be well-tempered. The Marlins bats look like a good option in the matchup. The projected lineup opens with Bryan De La Cruz, who is an interesting option in the outfield for just $2,800 with a .301/.351/.468 triple-slash and seven home runs in the books in 202 plate appearances. De La Cruz is a good hitter, he slashed .252/.294/.432 but hit 13 home runs in just 355 plate appearances last year, there is certainly price-based upside if he leads off tonight. Jorge Soler has a team-leading 9.25 in our home run model, the masher has 17 on the season with a .305 ISO and 137 WRC+, he should be a major part of most Marlins stacks. Soler has an 18.9% barrel rate and 46.9% hard-hit rate, if Snell makes another mistake for premium contact against this hitter the ball is not coming back. Luis Arraez has baseball’s best hit tool, he is slashing .376/.432/.462 and has created runs 47% better than average. Garrett Cooper has five home runs and a .148 ISO with a 78 WRC+ in 158 plate appearances this season, against lefties he has created runs 55% better than average in 41 plate appearances. Yuli Gurriel won a batting title two years ago, the veteran is up to .289/.353/.430 with a 113 WRC+ in 136 plate appearances in Miami this year. Jean Segura has been a weak point for the team all season, it is time to give this job to someone else. Segura has a 38 WRC+ with zero home runs and a .198/.261/.228 triple-slash. Jon Berti stole 41 bases to lead the National League last year but has just seven in 177 plate appearances this year. Nick Fortes and Garrett Hampson close out the lineup meaning that there are three different Marlins with the name Garrett projected to play for this team tonight.
Play: Marlins bats/stacks, Blake Snell, Padres bats/stacks
Update Notes: the confirmed Padres lineup runs Kim-Tatis-Soto-Bogaerts-Dixon-Cronenworth-Cruz-Gary Sanchez (yup)-Trent Grisham in an upgraded back end that is now somewhat interesting. Grisham has a 96 WRC+ with five home runs in 200 plate appearances and is slashing merely .196/.322/.363 but has a 15% barrel rate and has hit for mid-range power in seasons past. Whatever you may think of Sanchez, throughout his entire career, when he has connected with the ball it has gone sailing over the wall with regularity. Sanchez is worth a few darts if building several stacks of Padres in tournaments. The Marlins lineup is confirmed in its expected form.
Milwaukee Brewers (+141/4.53) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-154/5.59)
The first game on the DraftKings slate features the Brewers in Toronto to take on the loaded Blue Jays in a game that is sporting one of the highest implied team totals on the board. Unfortunately for the visiting Brewers, that total is being pushed to the home team, Milwaukee sits at a serviceable 4.53-run total against righty Alek Manoah who has simply not been the same pitcher this season. Manoah had a 22.9% strikeout rate with a 2.24 ERA and 3.98 xFIP in 31 starts and 196.2 innings last year and posted a 27.7% strikeout rate in 111.2 innings in 2021. This season, Manoah is down to just an 18% strikeout rate with a 5.53 ERA and 5.85 xFIP in 11 starts and 53.2 innings. The righty has lost his strikeout stuff, his swinging-strike rate has dipped from 11.2% to just 8.6% with his CSW dropping accordingly. He has also allowed far more premium contact this year, with an 8.4% barrel rate up three points year-over-year, a hard-hit rate that spiked from 31.5% to 42.8%, and an average exit velocity that is up two mph to 89.2, resulting in a climb from 2.04% home runs to 3.53% in the small sample. Manoah appears to be throwing more sinkers to less effect in an effort to cover a loss of more than a mile-per-hour on his four-seam fastball, and he has gotten unlucky with a .627 slugging percentage compared to just a .389 xSLG on his slider, though the expected rate against his sinker is far higher than the actual, so perhaps that evens out. Regardless, Manoah has been unreliable at best and, in recent outings, downright bad. The righty is very cheap for who he used to be, he comes in at just $6,900/$8,000, but his current form and his projection for the night in this matchup do not support a strong recommendation for shares. The Brewers lineup is looking like the better option between the two sides. Milwaukee shows only moderate upside for power, but they are fairly well-projected for such a cheap lineup, making them a potential value stack for tonight. Christian Yelich is slated to lead off, he has seven home runs and 11 stolen bases with a 104 WRC+ on the season and is cheap at $4,400/$3,300. Owen Miller has multi-position eligibility on both sites at an inexpensive price, he has been productive this season with a 136 WRC+ and four home runs with six stolen bases. William Contreras hit his sixth home run last night and has a .178 ISO with a 116 WRC+ as a good-not-great catcher on most slates. Contreras is rarely expensive and is not an overly popular play, when he connects he can be a difference maker where catchers are required. Rowdy Tellez has a team-leading 8.03 in our home run model, he has 12 on the season and is slashing .250/.339/.506 with a .256 ISO and 124 WRC+ in a solid 180 plate appearances. Tellez is too cheap for his potential at $4,200/$3,000 tonight. Brian Anderson started the season nicely and has come back to Earth in recent weeks but still sits at a 109 WRC+ with third base and outfield eligibility. Brice Turang has moderate power and a touch of speed, Tyrone Taylor had sneaky power last year but has just one home run in 75 plate appearances this season, and Joey Wiemer slots in ninth with a .187/.249/.329 triple slash while creating runs 44% worse than average. The interesting hitter late in the lineup could be Abraham Toro who is slated to hit eighth. Toro costs $2,400/$2,000 with eligibility at second and third base on both sites and may go unnoticed if he plays at all. He has made just one plate appearance this season but hit 10 home runs in 352 opportunities last year and 11 in 375 chances the year before as a part-time player.
Julio Teheran is a major target for Blue Jays bats and does not look like someone who should be played as a pitcher on either site. Teheran made a relatively clean start last week, striking out five Giants over five innings while allowing just one run on four hits, he will be hard-pressed to repeat the trick tonight and he is pushing major home run marks back toward the Blue Jays lineup in our Power Index. The star-studded Blue Jays lineup opens with George Springer, who has seven home runs but just a .135 ISO with a 9.9% barrel rate but a 33.7% hard-hit rate in 230 plate appearances. We have been waiting for Springer’s season to turn around, he has stabilized his run creation at 104 and his triple-slash is fine, but his power is still trailing its usual levels. Springer is at a discount on both sites and makes a strong first click in Blue Jays lineups. Bo Bichette leads the team with 11 home runs, he has a .195 ISO and 149 WRC+ in 250 plate appearances and has a 47.7% hard-hit rate that ranks third on the team behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 55.3% and Matt Chapman’s 60.7%. Bichette costs $5,000/$3,800, the price on DraftKings is cheap for his talent, as is the $5,100 the site wants for Guerrero in this matchup. All three of the top hitters in the Toronto lineup are doubling up our magic number for home run upside against Teheran, who has allowed a significant amount of power throughout his career and who has not seen regular action since 2019. Brandon Belt slots into the cleanup role at $2,300/$2,500. The first baseman was once a significant power threat on the left side of the plate, he missed a large portion of last year and ended the season with eight home runs in 298 plate appearances, but hit 29 in 381 opportunities the year before. Belt has hit just two homers in 148 plate appearances this season, but he is involved regularly on the back of a .372 on-base percentage that has carried him to a 116 WRC+ so far. Belt has a 13.57 in our home run model and the cheap lefty is our overall home run pick for the day. Chapman slots in fifth, he has a .196 ISO after dipping from .200 yesterday, but his 21.4% barrel rate and the excellent mark for hard hits are still sturdy and he has been a star hitter for years. With a declining price point, Chapman is a worthwhile investment on this slate when stacking Blue Jays. Whit Merrifield can provide good speed, correlated scoring, and infrequent individual power, Daulton Varsho has just eight home runs and a 78 WRC+ in his 224 plate appearances, and the projected lineup closes out with Alejandro Kirk and Kevin Kiermaier, who sat out last night with a minor injury. The Blue Jays are an excellent option for stacking, they have a good shot to hit home runs and they should have ample opportunity for sequencing and run creation throughout the night.
Play: Blue Jays bats/stacks aggressively (they’ll probably be popular so be wary with construction combinations), Brewers bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Brewers lineup has Tellez hitting third with Contreras cleaning up, followed by Anderson-Toro(bump)-Turang-Victor Caratini-Wiemer. Caratini is cheap as an alternate catcher, he has a 56.1% hard hit rate with a pair of low-owned home runs in 70 plate appearances. Toro is even more interesting hitting sixth. The Blue Jays have Varsho hitting cleanup instead of Brandon Belt, taking our favorite home run pick off the board, but Daulton Varsho is capable in the cleanup role behind the expected top half, with Cavan Biggio hitting eighth between Kirk and Kiermaier
Cincinnati Reds (+146/4.70) @ Boston Red Sox (-159/5.92)
The Reds will be facing lefty James Paxton who has posted a surprising 31.7% strikeout rate in three starts and 14 innings since his return. Paxton has a 5.14 ERA and a 3.91 xFIP in the sample with a 10% walk rate and 1.36 WHIP, and he was dinged for five runs in just three innings by the Angels in his last outing, so it has not all been wonderful, but he has been better than expected in his return after missing most of the last three years. The southpaw was once a high-end starter who worked in the 28-30% strikeout range, we simply were not expecting an immediate return to form given that his last relevant innings came in 2019. He has faced three quality opponents so far this season as well, his first start was a five-inning nine-strikeout dazzler against the Cardinals, his second saw him go six innings while striking out five Padres and allowing just one run, and the third start was the ugly game against the Angels. He has allowed at least one home run in each start, the Angels got him for two, and his current-year home run rate is at 6.67% on the back of an 11.4% barrel rate with 40% hard hits and 91.7 mph of average exit velocity. Paxton has a bit of upside on the mound with the strikeout potential against a low-end Reds team that has a 24.1% strikeout rate for the projected lineup. At just $8,500/$9,500 he is a good option on a very short slate for pitching, but it would not be too surprising to see him fully turn into a pumpkin even against the lowly Reds. Cincinnati’s lineup opens with Jonathan India, their most expensive player on either site. The second baseman is slashing .288/.372/.434 with a 115 WRC+, five home runs, and eight stolen bases. India is good and he is the team’s most productive hitter, but compared to similarly priced players on other teams he seems a bit overpriced. Still, when using stacks of Reds, he should absolutely be part of those plans. Matt McLain has two home runs and a .196 ISO with a 162 WRC+ in his tiny sample of 63 plate appearances since his call-up. McLain was raking in the minors and has hit well so far in the Show, he is a highly regarded infield prospect who costs just $3,700/$3,400 with a team-leading 10.99 in our home run model tonight. Spencer Steer has seven home runs with a .197 ISO and 120 WRC+ in 221 plate appearances, he has been effective this season and is slashing .288/.353/.485. Steer is a $3,800 first baseman on DraftKings and a $3,200 third baseman on FanDuel, he is a good play on either site when looking to Cincinnati and has hit lefties better than righties this season. Tyler Stephenson is an affordable catcher at $4,300, he has a 42.2% hard-hit rate but just an 86 WRC+ and a .096 ISO with two home runs in 213 plate appearances. Stephenson is in the lineup almost every day and hits in the heart of the order, but he has not produced much for MLB DFS purposes, he is a click when the position is necessary and one is building Reds stacks with purpose. Nick Senzel was a late scratch last night, assuming he plays he is a piece in the machine, he has a 95 WRC+ for a low price on both sites and offers three-position eligibility on FanDuel. Stuart Fairchild has a 5.1% barrel rate and just 27.8% hard hits on the right side, with one home run and a .143 ISO in 134 plate appearances. He hit five home runs in 110 opportunities with a .216 ISO last year but has not shown the same level of power or premium contact so far in 2023. Kevin Newman, Jose Barrero, and Luke Maile round out the projected lineup.
The Red Sox are facing Luke Weaver who is another DFS industry target for both power and run creation upside tonight. Boston’s 5.92-run implied team total is the highest mark on the slate, they are a good option against the limited righty tonight but they are likely to be explosively popular on both sites. Weaver has made seven starts and thrown 38 innings, pitching to a 5.45 ERA and 4.35 xFIP with a 22.6% strikeout rate. He has yielded far too much premium contact, which has always been an issue for this pitcher. So far in 2023, Weaver has a 5.49% home run rate on 90.2 mph of average exit velocity, a 12.9% barrel rate, and 44% hard hits. The righty is not entirely incapable on the mound, his strikeout rate is fine and his 11.2% swinging-strike rate is good, with a 28.8% CSW% that is also fine. Weaver has also walked just 5.5% of opposing hitters, but his WHIP sits at 1.37 on an opposing .318 batting average on balls in play. BABIP has always been a major issue for Weaver, given the level of premium contact he allows this is not a major surprise, of course, Weaver is perhaps slightly more talented than his reputation, but he still falls well short of being good. The Red Sox lineup was without excellent leadoff man Alex Verdugo last night, but the lefty should return to the top of the lineup today. Verdugo has a .166 ISO and has created runs 25% better than average while slashing .291/.368/.457 with five home runs. The outfielder is difficult to strike out, he has a current-year rate of 13.9% and was at 13.4% for all of last season, and he has boosted his walk rate from 2022’s 6.5% to 9.0% in a nice step forward. Verdugo is a great correlated scoring play along with the mashers that follow him in the lineup. Rafael Devers lands second but could hit fourth, with Masataka Yoshida landing in the second spot, regardless of the configuration both hitters are in play and they should bookend veteran Justin Turner to form a very playable straight-line four-man stack. Devers has 13 home runs with a .251 ISO but has dipped to just .246/.286/.498 with a 103 WRC+ which has him a bit cheap at $3,400 on FanDuel tonight, his $6,100 DraftKings price is more accurate to his talent. Turner is cheap and has eligibility at first and third base on both sites, he has six home runs and has been nine percent better than average creating runs at low ownership and inexpensive salaries for most of the year. Yoshida has six home runs and a 140 WRC+, he has been involved in everything with his .389 on-base percentage and he comes at a reasonable salary. Jarren Duran and Triston Casas are playable left-handed young hitters later in the lineup, Duran was on fire two weeks ago and has cooled, but still looks solid overall with three home runs and seven stolen bases, and a 117 WRC+ in 146 opportunities. Casas has had a rough start to the year in certain respects, he is slashing just .193/.308/.359 with a .166 ISO and has been 18% below average for run creation with only six home runs. That said, he is walking at a 14.5% clip which helps boost his 28.5% strikeout rate and his barrel rate is an excellent 13.3% with a 42.9% hard-hit rate, there is hope. Enrique Hernandez, Emmanuel Valdez, and Reese McGuire round out the lineup.
Play: Red Sox bats/stacks with popularity, James Paxton, minor shares of Reds values
Update Notes: the Reds have Kevin Newman in the leadoff role ahead of McLain-India-Steer-Stephenson-Fairchild-Senzel-Barrero-Luke Maile. Newman does not strike out much and has moderate ability for home runs and stolen bases, he has two of each in 132 plate appearances but has been 14% below average for run creation this year. He was six percent below average over 309 plate appearances last year. The Red Sox lineup has Verdugo-Devers-Turner-Yoshida-Rob Refsnyder-Duran-Hernandez-Valdez-Connor Wong. Wong is the more interesting of the Red Sox catchers, he has a good contact profile and has hit five home runs in 120 plate appearances so far this year. Refsnyder sees an odd start against a righty, but he is a discount play at $2,600/$2,500 and not much more.
Philadelphia Phillies (-116/4.68) @ New York Mets (+107/4.42)
The Phillies draw struggling veteran righty Carlos Carrasco who has made five starts and pitched to a 6.75 ERA with a 5.90 xFIP. Carrasco has just a 13.3% strikeout rate with a 10.6% walk rate in the small sample and has been hit hard to this point in the season. The righty has a 4.42% home run rate with a 10.8% barrel rate and 89.8 mph of average exit velocity. Carrasco made three low-end starts then missed a few weeks, he was not good in his first outing, giving up five earned runs in five innings to a lousy Cleveland squad, but he went 6.2 and struck out four Cubs while allowing just one run on a solo home run and five hits in his second start back. The Phillies are a stiff opponent and it is difficult to trust Carrasco, he is potentially worthy of a few darts at his cheap $6,400 price as an SP2 on DraftKings, but the FanDuel price is a bit difficult at $7,500. Phillies bats are definitely in play against this pitcher in this form. Bryson Stott is projected to lead off, he has been productive but has dipped to just 96 WRC+ for his 232 plate appearances. Trea Turner is a star who has been underperforming badly, which seems like a common theme around the league this year. Turner is slashing just .240/.285/.378 with a .138 ISO and 75 WRC+ in 239 plate appearances. Bryce Harper got the night off last night but should be back in his third spot in the lineup today. Harper has been outstanding since his return, he is slashing .306/.406/.482 with three home runs and two stolen bases in 101 plate appearances and is easily worth the $5,800/$3,800, particularly on the blue site where he has added first base eligibility. Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber are a nice righty-lefty duo in the heart of the batting order. Castellanos has five home runs and a 117 WRC+, Schwarber has 13 home runs and a .235 ISO but a 97 WRC+ and a sub-Mendoza average. The outfielders are both underpriced for their abilities, which will probably increase their popularity in stacks of Phillies, but they are worth the effort. JT Realmuto costs $4,700 on DraftKings, he has been good this season but dipped to a 99 WRC+ in recent games. The backstop has not hit for a ton of power this year, he has just three home runs in 188 plate appearances on a 7.6% barrel rate and 38.2% hard hits, both of which are down from the 11.3% and 46.7% he posted last season. Realmuto is still a star and he should round into form, so take the discount where the position is needed, where it is not he remains a playable part of this run-creation machine. Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, and Kody Clemens are possibly the best bottom three on tonight’s slate. All three hitters have an upside for power and run creation, though Bohm has slipped below average to 96 WRC+ in the largest sample in the group. He has six home runs and a .138 ISO but is cheap at $3,300/$3,300 with eligibility at first base and third base. Marsh costs just $2,800 in the outfield on both sites, which is inexpensive for a player with a 48% hard-hit rate and a .203 ISO in 179 plate appearances. Clemens has the smallest sample at just 74 plate appearances and could end up out of the lineup, he has four home runs and a .221 ISO with a 109 WRC+, all of which suggest that he should play, he would be a good value option at first base for a cheap $2,300/$2,400.
The Mets are facing Aaron Nola, but his ongoing struggles are encapsulated in their 4.46-run implied team total which is significantly higher than it would have been against this pitcher in seasons past. Nola has a 4.59 ERA and 4.12 xFIP in 11 starts and 68.2 innings, and his strikeouts have mostly vanished. Last season the star righty had a 29.1% strikeout rate on 12.6% swinging strikes and a 32.4% CSW% in 205 innings and 32 starts. This season he is at just 21.7% strikeouts on a 10.7% swinging-strike rate and 29.6% CSW%. Those are not awful marks, but they are way down year-over-year and they have led to dips across the board for the veteran righty. Nola has allowed far more premium contact and home run upside this year, with his barrel rate spiking from 7.1% to nine percent, hard hits jumping from 31.6% to 36.8%, and a home run rate that has climbed from 2.35% to 3.97% so far this season. The sample remains small, Nola has two-thirds of his season left to turn things around and a long enough track record to justify the faith that he will. That said, there are concerns around the loss of a mile-per-hour on his four-seam fastball that have him throwing more curveballs and cutters, to limited effect. Nola’s whiff rates are down across the board with the new pitch mix, his curveball has dropped from 39.4% to 30.8% whiffs despite looking essentially the same, for example. The Mets have the talent to capitalize on Nola’s struggles, but there is still enough to keep them limited to just the middle of our stacking plans, we will have some but won’t get carried away. The lineup opens with Brandon Nimmo, who has a .385 on-base percentage and a 134 WRC+ as an affordable excellent leadoff hitter and first man into a stack. Francisco Lindor is slashing just .227/.299/.435 but at least has 10 home runs with a .208 ISO that have kept him above the waterline at a 104 WRC+. Lindor needs to get his season together sooner than later, but he is down to just $4,800/$3,500 for the struggles. Jeff McNeil is projected to hit third for just $3,700/$2,900 with second base and outfield eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel. McNeil is good in this role when the ball is falling in for him, he is slashing .289/.367/.361 with a .072 ISO but a 111 WRC+ and can be a good cheap correlated scoring play with slugger Pete Alonso. The first baseman has 20 home runs and a .320 ISO with a 145 WRC+ in his 236 plate appearances this season. Alonso’s 18.4% barrel rate and 43% hard-hit rate are excellent marks and he is probably still not expensive enough at $5,700/$4,000. Brett Baty slots in for $3,200/$2,700 as a cheap upside play, he has power and a highly-regarded hit tool and should produce better than the 100 WRC+ he has in 127 plate appearances since his call-up. Baty has four home runs and a 52.3% hard-hit rate with a 9.3% barrel rate and he comes cheap on both sites, making him interesting when going to Mets stacks. Starling Marte has been lousy for most of the season but he is at a low price and his legs still work, he has 15 stolen bases in 194 plate appearances. Daniel Vogelbach, Mark Canha, and the very interesting Francisco Alvarez round out the lineup. Alvarez is a growing young star, he has eight home runs and a .278 ISO as a very inexpensive catcher for just $3,400 on DraftKings, he is playable at $3,200 on FanDuel though we would want him higher in the batting order at that relative price.
Play: Phillies bats/stacks, Aaron Nola, Mets bats/stacks in smaller doses
Update Notes: the Phillies have their expected lineup in place with the exception of Edmundo Sosa stepping in for Bohm and hitting ninth. The Mets lineup is as expected but Tomas Nido will spell Alvarez in a big downgrade to the team’s catcher spot. Nido is a defense-only backup catcher.
Minnesota Twins (+158/3.50) @ Houston Astros (-172/4.59)
The Twins are drawing only a moderate amount of power upside against Hunter Brown, who has been good in his 10 starts and 57.2 innings as a rookie. Brown broke camp with the big club and has not looked back, the highly regarded young starter has a 3.12 ERA and 3.08 xFIP with a 28.1% strikeout rate so far and he has been good at checking home runs and keeping the ball down. Brown’s 4.5-degree average launch angle has gone far in limiting home runs to just 1.7% despite a 44.9% hard-hit rate and 90.8 mph of average exit velocity so far this year. If he makes a mistake it is likely that the ball will travel, particularly against a hard-hitting Twins lineup, but Brown has avoided those hiccups all season and he looks like a good option on the mound at $10,000/$10,500. The Twins were cut in our Power Index after an update, between the dip in power potential and their aggressively high strikeout rates, Minnesota is at best a mid-range option on this slate. The team still has significant power hitters who could drive the ball if Brown leaves the rare pitch in a targetable zone for launch angle, which would lead to Joey Gallo at the top of the lineup for $4,100/$3,000. Gallo has 11 home runs on the season while slashing .200/.333/.508 with a 131 WRC+ in 156 plate appearances. Edouard Julien is cheap at $3,000/$2,500, he has a solid 13.5% barrel rate and four home run in his first 66 plate appearances. Carlos Correa has six home runs with an 11.7% barrel rate and 42.3% hard hits but little else so far this season. Byron Buxton has mashed 10 home runs with a .227 ISO and 114 WRC+ but is slashing just .221/.324/.448 with a 29% strikeout rate. Three of the top four hitters are between 29% and 35.9% strikeouts so far this season. Alex Kiriloff has cheap power on the left side, he has three home runs in 82 solid plate appearances so far this year and has created runs 66% better than average in the tiny sample. Royce Lewis has seen a price jump to $3,000/$2,800 with added third base eligibility on both sites, he is still a significant bargain and a good buy when rostering Twins hitters. Max Kepler has hit six home runs and has a .213 ISO in his 123 plate appearances and provides lower-owned left-handed pop late in the lineup. Willi Castro has been productive with a 114 WRC+, nine stolen bases, and four home runs in his 112 plate appearances, and Ryan Jeffers can add some power from the catcher spot at a cheap price and very low popularity. Jeffers has three homers in 87 plate appearances with a .197 ISO and a 47.9% hard-hit rate and costs just $2,600 where his position is required.
Twins righty Louie Varland has been good over his first six starts this season, pitching to a 4.24 ERA with a 3.78 xFIP. Varland has struck out 23.8% of opposing hitters with a very good 12.3% swinging-strike rate and a 27.6% CSW% while walking just 4.9%, which is a strong combination of factors from a young highly-regarded starter. Varland is affordable at $8,300/$8,800 against the Astros lineup, he is in play and has the potential for clean innings and strikeout upside, but his team will need to score against Brown before he can chase the win bonus and the Astros are heavily favored with the Twins at just 3.50 implied runs. The Houston total is nearly a full run higher, they look like the more playable option at the plate tonight and Varland’s contact profile has been targetable for power in the small sample. The righty has allowed a 6.29% home run rate with 43.6% hard hits and a 90.5 mph average exit velocity on 12.9% barrels. There is a lot of happenstance in a small sample in those numbers, but the Astros have elite home run hitters in their lineup, which could cause problems for any young pitcher let alone one who has been lousy for contact when he makes mistakes. The Astros lineup opens with excellent second baseman Jose Altuve, who is still underpriced after missing the first quarter of the season with an injury. Altuve has a pair of home runs and a .265 ISO while slashing .324/.425/.588 in his first 40 plate appearances. Jeremy Pena costs $4,700/$3,000 at shortstop, he has eight home runs and six stolen bases with a 102 WRC+. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s star, he has 14 home runs and a .306 ISO to justify his $6,000/$4,400 price tag. Alex Bregman got into one last night and has seven home runs on the season with a .144 ISO and 103 WRC+. Kyle Tucker is underpriced at $5,300/$3,300, he has seven homers and seven steals but just a .165 ISO after posting marks of .221 and .263 the last two years. Tucker will come out of the dip soon enough, we want to be ahead of the curve when he does. Jose Abreu is up to .214/.276/.264 with a .050 ISO and 51 WRC+ and yes, we did mean “up to,” it has not been pretty. Corey Julks, Jake Meyers, and Martin Maldonado round out the lineup, Meyers has a 107 WRC+ in 149 plate appearances, all three are usable parts.
Play: Hunter Brown, Astros bats/stacks, Louie Varland in small doses, maybe some Twins bats if low-owned
Update Notes: the Twins are going with an odd lineup that runs Julien-Donovan Solano-Kirilloff-Kyle Farmer-Gallo-Jeffers-Kepler-Castro-Michael A. Taylor. This takes Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis off the board in a big downgrade to the Twins and gives a bump to the already strong Hunter Brown play, the Astros righty is now firmly our highest-projected starter, he is very likely to be the most popular pitcher on both sites. Solano costs the minimum with multi-position at first and third base on DraftKings but is a $2,200 first baseman on FanDuel, he is a low-end hit-tool focused play, Farmer costs $2,900 at third base or shortstop on DraftKings and in both middle infield spots on FanDuel for the same price. He has three home runs this season with a 100 WRC+ in 107 plate appearances and hit 14 home runs in 583 opportunities last year, but he is not a typical cleanup hitter. Gallo drops from first to fifth and sees a bit of a cut in his projection as well. Jeffers gets a bump from a slightly better spot in the batting order for individual upside, but the supporting cast is downgraded. Taylor is an interesting extremely cheap option for low-owned home runs most nights that he plays but the path to success is always thin, he has six homers in 147 plate appearances with a 12.9% barrel rate for $2,200/$2,500 in the outfield. And, of course, the Astros have a funky lineup as well. The big change for Houston is the inclusion of Mauricio Dubon in the leadoff spot in place of Jose Altuve, which is a downgrade to the team and a bit of a bump for Varland on the other side. The rest of the lineup runs as anticipated, but Chas McCormick is in where Julks was projected, hitting seventh and giving a power bump to the spot in the stack.
New York Yankees (+125/3.52) @ Seattle Mariners (-135/4.06)
The late game in Seattle has two good lineups somewhat in check with the Yankees carrying just a 3.52-run implied team total against talented Mariners starter George Kirby. The righty comes in with a 3.43 ERA and a 3.95 xFIP over 63 innings in 10 starts. Kirby has a 20.1% strikeout rate that represents a dip from last year’s 24.5% but he has been outstanding at limiting opposing opportunities with just a 2.4% walk rate while also curbing power to a good degree. Kirby has allowed a 2.76% home run rate and 88.2 mph of average exit velocity with just a 5.1% barrel rate and 34.9% hard hits this season. The righty is facing a free-swinging top-heavy Yankees lineup that got production from unexpected sources last night, he looks like a good play at just $9,400/$9,200 tonight and there is an upside for strikeouts against this Yankees lineup beyond what he has produced so far this season. New York’s projected batting order opens in the usual style with Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge. Torres is a good play at second base on most slates, he has nine home runs and a 120 WRC+ in 238 plate appearances and is a dynamite way to pad scoring with Judge. The big slugger in the outfield has 18 home runs after hitting another one last night, his .388 ISO and 195 WRC+ are massive numbers that are almost unrivaled in all of baseball and he is slashing .303/.413/.691 in 201 plate appearances this year with a 27.5% barrel rate and 63.3% hard-hit rate. It is rarely a mistake to roster Aaron Judge in any format. Willie Calhoun slots in third in the projected lineup with Anthony Rizzo likely to sit out again while nursing a sore neck. Calhoun has three home runs and is slashing .257/.327/.406 with a .149 ISO and 103 WRC+ over 113 plate appearances, he is cheap in the heart of the order if he lands in this spot. DJ LeMahieu has been hitting the ball hard, he has multi-position eligibility on both sites and comes at a fair price before the lineup falls off the shelf. Isiah Kiner-Falefa had a good night last night, he is still not a good hitter. Jake Bauers has three home runs and a .226 ISO but is not very good overall. Anthony Volpe is a young prospect star with a ton of hype who hit his eighth home run last night but also sits at just .198/.277/.365 with a .168 ISO and 78 WRC+, the production has been very sporadic from the rookie shortstop. Kyle Higashioka blasts the ball when he makes contact, it is the elusive contact that is the key for the catcher. Higashioka has an 18.5% barrel rate and 53.7% hard-hit rate in 9o plate appearances. Greg Allen hit a sneaky home run last night from the bottom of the lineup, he is very cheap and will be low-owned at $2,100/$2,000 if he plays.
The Mariners are at a low total as well in their matchup against righty Clarke Schmidt who has been good in 11 starts this season despite what his 5.58 ERA might suggest. Schmidt has a 3.95 xFIP to support that theory and he has struck out 25.3% of opposing hitters with a 10.4% swinging-strike rate and 27% CSW%. The problems have primarily cropped up around premium contact and shortened outings earlier in the year, Schmidt is saddled with a 10.6% barrel rate and 47% hard-hit rate for the season with 91.6 mph of average exit velocity, though he has kept home runs to just 3.49%. At $7,700 on both sites, against a lineup that has a 26.5% current-year strikeout rate in its projected form, there is some upside for Schmidt as an MLB DFS play. The Mariners lineup can be rostered in small doses, but they do not stand out in this spot tonight and their run total sits at just 4.06. Seattle’s lineup opens with JP Crawford, a value play for correlated scoring at the shortstop position on both sites. Ty France should hit second, he has five homers with a 118 WRC+ in 236 plate appearances but was doing a bit more at the plate last year. Julio Rodriguez has 10 home runs with a .200 ISO and 110 WRC+ for $5,900/$3,900. Jarred Kelenic costs $4,900/$3,400 with 10 home runs and seven stolen bases, he has a 139 WRC+ in 209 plate appearances this season and has seen his price dip after cooling somewhat in May. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez has a 10.1% barrel rate and 44.2% hard-hit mark for the season, he has gotten himself going somewhat and is up to six home runs with a 92 WRC+ after a very slow start but also has a 28.5% strikeout rate for the season. That mark comes in the batting order immediately after Kelenic”s 30.6% and Rodriguez’s 27.5% and sits ahead of the 25.8% mark held by Cal Raleigh and Teoscar Hernandez’s 33.8% strikeout rate. There is a ton of power in that collection of hitters, but there are plenty of strikeouts as well. Raleigh has eight home runs with a .217 ISO, and Hernandez has nine with a .168 mark. Taylor Trammell and Jose Caballero close out the projected lineup.
Play: George Kirby, Clarke Schmidt, minor shares of hitters on either side
Update Notes: the confirmed Mariners lineup runs as expected but Kolten Wong is in where Caballero was projected. Wong has struggled badly this season but hit 15 home runs and stole 17 bases last year and was a 14/12 player in 2021. He costs $2,200/$2,300 at second base tonight and will hit ninth.
Colorado Rockies (+143/4.51) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-155/5.60)
The visiting Rockies are potentially in play and are showing sturdy home run marks against limited lefty Tommy Henry who has allowed a 4.20% home run rate with a 9.1% barrel rate this season. Henry has made six starts and thrown 34 innings with just a 12.6% strikeout rate despite an 11.1% swinging-strike rate. He has a 4.50 ERA and an ugly 5.99 xFIP and is not a great option on the mound at $7,800 on FanDuel. At $5,700 on the DraftKings slate, against a lousy team, the bold could potentially try to squeeze a few value innings out of the lousy lefty, but the play is very very thin. The Rockies lineup looks like the better side of the equation, leadoff man Jurickson Profar has not been good this season with an 81 WRC+, the Rockies need to give this job to someone else. Randal Grichuk is hitting second in the projected lineup, which is skipping Charlie Blackmon who is on the bereavement list. Grichuk has been good in a small sample, slashing .367/.426/.511 in 101 plate appearances but he has just one home run and a .144 ISO while creating runs 41% better than average so far. Elias Diaz has been 28% better than average for run creation with six home runs while slashing .329/.385/.506 as a strong catcher option for just $4,900/$2,800 in the middle of the lineup. Kris Bryant and Ryan McMahon are the team’s primary power core, though only one of the engines has been firing this season. Bryant has just five home runs and a .111 ISO while creating runs 13% below average, McMahon has eight homers with a .223 ISO and 104 WRC+ but is not as good when facing same-handed pitching. For his career, McMahon sees his ISO dip from .196 against righties to just .165 against fellow lefties and his run creation mark drops from 95 to 78. Brenton Doyle has four home runs and a .205 ISO in just 88 plate appearances. the righty has a 13.7% barrel rate but has struck out at a 36.4% clip os far while walking just 5.7% of the time, which could potentially leave a large hole in a lineup if he does not connect. Ezequiel Tovar has been bad in his rookie season over 191 plate appearances, he may need more seasoning in the minors, Alen Trejo is projected to hit eighth, he is not much of an MLB DFS entity with a 50 WRC+ and .081 ISO, and only three stolen bases in his counting stats. Elehuris Montero is the more interesting name at the bottom of the projected lineup, he has one home run in 55 plate appearances earlier in the season, if he plays he is a cheap highly regarded prospect at third base.
The final game on the slate features the return of Dinelson Lamet to a starting role. Lamet has pitched exclusively in a bullpen role for Colorado since the start of last season, but longtime MLB DFS gamers will remember him from high expectations of Padres seasons past. Lamet can be filthy on the mound when he is healthy and going right, but health has always eluded him and he has been inconsistent at best. The now 30-year-old righty had a 30.2% strikeout rate and an effective 3.93 xFIP out of the pen for Colorado last year, and he was good in the short 2020 season. Lamet made 12 starts and threw 69 innings in what amounted to a full year in the pandemic-shortened season. He had a 3.30 xFIP and 2.09 ERA with an outstanding 34.8% strikeout rate and just a 7.5% walk rate in his most productive season. The year before that, Lamet had a 33.5% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate in just 73 innings and 14 starts in his second year, and he posted a 28.7% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate as a rookie in 2017 over 21 starts and 114.1 innings. It seems like he has been around for longer than that. Lamet has made three rehab starts on his way back from an injury earlier this season, he pitched into the fifth inning his most recent time out, suggesting about a five-inning or 90-pitch upside tonight. At $5,100/$5,600 in a true start that might not be on everyone’s radar, and with the memory of significant strikeout returns, there is potential in Lamet as a value play at very cheap prices. The idea of a quality start for FanDuel gamers is probably off the table, but at his extremely low price on the blue site, we may not need it if he can find a strikeout upside. Of course, the matchup against the Diamondbacks is not a great one and they are carrying the second-highest implied team total in Vegas at a whopping 5.60, so take this play for what it is worth. Arizona’s active roster ranks 15th in baseball with a 102 WRC+ against right-handed pitching this season but they have been the league’s best team at limiting strikeouts against righties this season with just a 19.4% rate. This is an interesting spot on both sides, if one is rostering shares of Lamet it would make total sense to hedge with Diamondbacks in other lineups. Pavin Smith leads off with a .212/.315/.381 triple-slash in 130 plate appearances, he has five home runs and a 91 WRC+. Ketel Marte is affordable at second base, he hit his eighth home run last night and is slashing .281/.339/.482 for the year with a .201 ISO and 119 WRC+ in a very good 221 plate appearances. Corbin Carroll hit his ninth home run last night, he has 16 stolen bases to pad his outstanding MLB DFS production and he makes a great buy at $5,200/$3,500. Carroll is a premium rookie who has created runs 40% better than average in 207 plate appearances this year, he is well worth the investment in what could be a good spot for run creation. Christian Walker has 11 home runs and a .222 ISO and has struck out at just a 19.4% rate which is excellent for a hitter with this kind of power. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is even better with just a 15.3% strikeout rate and he has been terrific this year with nine home runs, a .242 ISO, and a 144 WRC+ in 202 plate appearances while slashing .312/.361/.554. Josh Rojas, Jake McCarthy, and Geraldo Perdomo are all playable late in the lineup. All three players offer mid-range power and stolen base upside. Jose Herrera is slated to do the catching and close things out.
Play: Diamondbacks bats/stacks, Rockies bats/stacks, some Dinelson Lamet value darts with properly set expectations
Update Notes: Arizona’s lineup runs as expected until Gabriel Moreno steps in hitting seventh in an upgrade to the catcher spot instead of the backup Herrera, McCarthy and Perdomo round out the lineup, minor bump to already strong Arizona stacks and definitely to their catcher spot.
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