This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2024 Week 3 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back, such as Tony Pollard, can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | CHI | $31,400 | 1 | 3 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| SF | MIN | $27,100 | 2 | 1 | $24,600 | 2 | 1 |
| DET | TB | $30,400 | 3 | 5 | $26,400 | 1 | 4 |
| LAR | ARI | $28,400 | 4 | 2 | $24,400 | 3 | 2 |
| KC | CIN | $29,200 | 5 | 6 | $26,000 | 4 | 6 |
| NYJ | TEN | $28,200 | 6 | 4 | $23,700 | 5 | 3 |
| BAL | LV | $29,400 | 7 | 10 | $25,700 | 6 | 9 |
| MIN | SF | $28,400 | 8 | 12 | $24,800 | 7 | 8 |
| TB | DET | $29,200 | 9 | 15 | $25,700 | 8 | 13 |
| ARI | LAR | $27,200 | 10 | 7 | $25,900 | 9 | 17 |
| IND | GB | $28,400 | 11 | 14 | $25,100 | 10 | 15 |
| CHI | HOU | $26,600 | 12 | 8 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| JAC | CLE | $26,300 | 13 | 13 | $23,200 | 12 | 10 |
| DAL | NO | $28,000 | 14 | 21 | $25,800 | 11 | 20 |
| NYG | WAS | $24,800 | 15 | 9 | $21,200 | 14 | 5 |
| NO | DAL | $27,200 | 16 | 22 | $23,300 | 13 | 16 |
| LAC | CAR | $25,700 | 17 | 16 | $21,100 | 15 | 7 |
| WAS | NYG | $24,400 | 18 | 11 | $21,500 | 16 | 12 |
| CIN | KC | $27,600 | 19 | 23 | $23,500 | 17 | 21 |
| CLE | JAC | $25,500 | 20 | 19 | $22,800 | 18 | 19 |
| TEN | NYJ | $24,500 | 21 | 17 | $21,300 | 20 | 14 |
| LV | BAL | $24,600 | 22 | 20 | $21,900 | 19 | 18 |
| NE | SEA | $23,100 | 23 | 18 | $19,500 | 22 | 11 |
| SEA | NE | $25,300 | 24 | 25 | $21,600 | 21 | 22 |
| GB | IND | $25,400 | 25 | 26 | $22,500 | 23 | 25 |
| PIT | DEN | $24,600 | 26 | 27 | $20,400 | 24 | 23 |
| CAR | LAC | $22,000 | 27 | 24 | $20,100 | 25 | 24 |
| DEN | PIT | $22,000 | 28 | 28 | $18,300 | 26 | 26 |
Week 3 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in the process of creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still of critical importance to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through a variety of combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 3 Features & FREE Projections
- Week 3 FanDuel & DraftKings Projections
- Week 3 Above/Below – Key Picks
- Week 3 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 3 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 3 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 3 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 3
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when there is a situation with an extremely highly projected running back who does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Game Total: 52 / ARI +2.5 (24.75 imp.)
Plays: 53.28% rush / 46.72% pass
oppDEF: 3.3 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, James Conner, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch (Q)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs
Lineup Notes: Arizona has been the league’s second-highest scoring offense over the season’s first two weeks and they land in the game with the highest total in Vegas at 52 points against the Lions in Week 3. The Cardinals saw a big step forward from rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. in the first half of last week’s game. Harrison finished the day with four catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns and appears to have a rapidly developing connection with quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray completed 17 of 21 pass attempts for 266 yards and three touchdowns in the game while adding another 59 yards on five carries, he is a dynamic multi-faceted quarterback who makes a prime candidate for stacking this week. Murray ranks as QB4 by points and QB9 by value on DraftKings and QB5 by points and QB9 by value on FanDuel. The duo is joined by premium tight end Trey McBride, one of two outstanding positional options in this game. McBride has been targeted 15 times over the season’s first two contests, catching 11 passes but failing to score a touchdown, he ranks as TE1/3 and TE1/2 across sites. The Cardinals offer a mid-range rushing attack with James Conner at its core. Conner gained 50 yards and scored a touchdown on 16 carries in Week 1, adding three catches on four targets for another 33 yards. In Week 2, the running back saw 21 carries and gained 122 yards while scoring his second rushing touchdown but he was less involved in the team’s more limited passing attack in an easy victory. Conner is RB15/20 and RB15/23 this week. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch offer depth, Wilson drew two targets in each of the first two games with a 13.5-yard ADOT while Dortch was more involved with eight targets in Week 1 but dipped to just two targets in Week 2. Both should be considered low-volume mix-in options at best. The Cardinals rank as Stack 5/13 on DraftKings and Stack 5/8 on FanDuel in a game that will provide numerous stacking configurations with strong “bring-back” options in either direction.
Atlanta Falcons
Game Total: 46.5 / ATL +3.5 (21.5 imp.)
Plays: 46.3% rush / 53.7% pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud III, KhaDarel Hodge (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Carson Steele, Samaje Perine
Lineup Notes: The Falcons’ offense has not been tremendous to start the 2024 season but the team went on a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter in Week 2 that inspires faith in things to come. Veteran Kirk Cousins helms an offense that has scored just 16 points per game this season while gaining 4.8 yards per rush attempt and 6.7 yards per pass. The Falcons have positional depth at skill positions, Drake London is a strong wide receiver option who lands as WR19/15 with Cousins at QB16/17 in a game that is only available on FanDuel. The Falcons offense has a strong lead running back in Bijan Robinson, who checks in with a 5.2 yards per rush attempt average and 82.5 yards per game on 16 carries per game over the season’s first two weeks. Robinson has not scored but he has been heavily involved in the offense and presents a strong volume-based running back play this week. Robinson saw 23 potential touches in Week 1 with 18 carries and 5-5 receiving, gaining 68 yards on the ground and another 43 in the passing game. In Week 2 he had 97 yards on 14 carries and added 25 yards on 4-5 receiving, another 18 potential touches. Robinson is RB5/10 on FanDuel. The Falcons have talented but underwhelming Kyle Pitts at tight end, he has six catches but just 46 yards on the season while putting up one touchdown over the first two games. Pitts has drawn a 5.6-yard average depth of target and 10.26% of the air yards share this season, he is an expensive positional mixer. Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III are deep slate options, Mooney has drawn 40.26% of the air yards on a 15.3-yard ADOT over the first two weeks, while McCloud has been more of an underneath option to make big plays with the ball in his hands. McCloud has been targeted six times per game, gaining 7.8 yards per target on the season. Running back Tyler Allgeier is one of the better selections from the bottom shelf of running backs. Typically, we do not chase value running backs without the promise of a new role or added touches, volume is king at the position but Allgeier sees just enough on a regular basis, with just enough potential to poach a touchdown, that he falls into play in the right situation. The Falcons are an easily playable offense in the late-night game on the blue site but they rank as just Stack 16/18.
Baltimore Ravens
Game Total: 49/ BAL -1.0 (25.0 imp.)
Plays: 43.07% rush / 56.93% pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Lamar Jackson stacks)
Team Group: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry (on/off), Justice Hill (on/off), Nelson Agholor (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Ceedee Lamb, Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks
Lineup Notes: The Ravens are pulling in a large implied team total in one of Week 3’s more high-end matchups. The Ravens offense lives and dies with the performance of superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has had a sturdy start to the season. Jackson threw for 273 yards and a touchdown on 26-41 passing in Week 1 then followed it with 21-34 passing for 247 yards and another touchdown while losing an interception in Week 2. Of course, passing is only one facet of the star’s game. Jackson is an elite rusher for his position, he racked up 122 yards on a whopping 16 carries in Week 1 but dipped to 45 yards on five attempts in Week 2. Jackson is an elite “any given slate” option with a true ceiling on every slate, he can be played “naked” without stacked teammates or as part of a Jackson+1 or more limited Jackson+2 exposures. Zay Flowers is the team’s primary weapon in the passing attack, he drew 11 targets in Week 2, hauling in seven of them for 91 yards and a touchdown. Flowers caught six of 10 targets in the season’s first game and added a pair of carries, he is a dynamic first-read receiver. Derrick Henry is a grinder of a running back, the veteran checks in as RB10/9 on DraftKings and RB9/15 on FanDuel. Henry carried the ball 13 times in Week 1 and 18 times in Week 2, adding minimal involvement in the passing game where he ceded the position to Justice Hill. Veteran Mark Andrews went from two targets in Week 1 to five in Week 2 while counterpart Isaiah Likely dipped from 12 targets in his terrific first outing to just three last week. Andrews remains the go-to veteran option at the position with Likely acting as a mere low-owned mixer. Rashod Bateman is a true downfield threat for Baltimore, over the first two games he has drawn a 17.4-yard ADOT with 28.81% of the team’s air yards share but he has yet to score a touchdown. The remaining options are large-slate dart throws, including Nelson Agholor, who has averaged just two targets but does have a 14.5-yard ADOT on the season. The Ravens are Stack 6/5 on DraftKings and Stack 4/7 on FanDuel this week, while their quarterback lands as QB1/4 on DraftKings and QB1/2 on FanDuel.
Carolina Panthers
Game Total: 40 / CAR +5.5 (17.75 imp.)
Plays: 37.62% rush /62.38% pass
oppDEF: 6.1 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass
Key Player: Andy Dalton
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Diontae Johnson, Adam Theilen, Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, Chuba Hubbard (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker
Lineup Notes: After giving up two first-round picks, including the Caleb Williams pick, two second-round picks, and receiver DJ Moore, in exchange for the rights to draft quarterback Bryce Young last year, the Panthers seem to be at the end of the line with the wildly disappointing signal caller after just 18 games. Young was a total bust who has shown virtually no positives at the position, it is difficult to say this is a mistake, but it is a tragic outcome that will cripple the franchise for seasons to come. Carolina is pivoting to veteran Andy Dalton, who was last relevant in 2019 and was last good several seasons before that. Dalton will have reasonable weapons at his disposal, but he ranks as QB26/20 on both sites on a team that is Stack 24/22 and Stack 26/24. Dalton will be throwing to Diontae Johnson, Adam Theilen, and rookie Xavier Legette, but the team offers limited appeal as a stack. Even as a value play, Dalton and his receivers are not overly appealing in this matchup. Johnson caught two balls for 19 yards in Week 1 and three for 15 in Week 2, though he was targeted six times in each outing. Thielen caught three of four in Week 1 and two of three the following week, he has 69 total yards with no scores on the season. Legette went untargeted despite running 14 routes on his 20 snaps last week, he caught four of seven targets for 35 yards in Week 1. The ground game is not much more appealing for Carolina. Chuba Hubbard has the lead role, he has gained 4.9 yards per rush attempt this year, 1.6 before contact per attempt, and 3.3 after contact per attempt. Hubbard is RB25/21 and RB27/26 across sites, he is a borderline play against a Vegas defense that has scuffled to 31st with 6.1 yards allowed per rush attempt over the first two weeks of the season. Miles Sanders carried the ball just seven times for 20 yards and caught three of three passes for just five yards, he is an afterthought in an already limited attack. The Panthers are not a strong option on either site as a stack but their receivers could provide upside as individuals.
Chicago Bears
Game Total: 43.5 / CHI +1.5 (21.0 imp.)
Plays: 36.97% rush / 63.03% pass
oppDEF: 5.1 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass
Key Player: Caleb Williams
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Williams stacks)
Team Group: DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, DeAndre Carter, D’Andre Swift
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman (Q), Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell
Lineup Notes: Keenan Allen and Travis Homer are out for Week 2. Allen’s absence will be limiting for a passing attack that has not been at full strength while looking extremely limited over the first two games. Rookie stud quarterback Caleb Williams has been a staggering disappointment early in his career, throwing for just 93 yards on 14-29 passing in his debut and following it up with 23.37 for 174 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions in Week 2. Williams has not been involved in a Bears touchdown over the season’s first two games. The quarterback has plenty of ability, he is a strong rusher in addition to his acumen in the pocket and throwing the ball, but his terrible performances are discouraging even with a discounted price. Williams ranks as QB18/17 on DraftKings and QB19/19 on FanDuel this week. The rookie has a very strong veteran receiver in DJ Moore who caught five of eight targets but posted a mere 36 yards in Week 1 and had only 53 yards on 6-10 receiving in Week 2. Moore is yet to see paydirt on his 11 catches. Williams connected with fellow rookie Rome Odunze just one time in their first game, gaining 11 yards on the play while missing him on three other attempts. The duo doubled their connection while tripling their yardage in Week 2, if they managed the same feat in Week 3 they would have a respectable four catches for 99 yards. Odunze is a mix-in option with significant skill-based upside but he and the person responsible for putting the ball in his hands both lack experience. Cole Kmet is a mixer at tight end, he ranks 15/16 on DraftKings and 18/18 on FanDuel. The Bears offer just DeAndre Carter from down the depth chart, he has drawn 18.83% of the team’s air yards on three targets per game with a 14.5-yard ADOT over the first two games. D’Andre Swift gained 30 yards on 10 carries in Week 1 and picked up 18 yards on 14 attempts in Week 2 while adding four catches for 24 yards on five targets. Swift has been a mixer of an expensive option over the season’s first two games, he is RB18/16 and RB19/21 across sites this week. The Bears are Stack 18/17 and Stack 21/21 across DraftKings and FanDuel, it is difficult to envision significant relevance until the quarterback takes a big step forward.
Cleveland Browns
Game Total: 39 / CLE -6.0 (22.5 imp.)
Plays: 35.56% rush / 64.44% pass
oppDEF: 5.3 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Jerome Ford, Elijah Moore, Jordan Akins, Cedric Tillman (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Malik Nabers, Devin Singletary, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton
Lineup Notes: Pierre Strong & David Njoku are out for Week 2. Running back Jerome Ford should see a fair amount of volume and opportunity with the Browns favored by six in a 39-point game against the low-end Giants. New York’s defense comes in with a 29th-ranked 5.3 yards per rush attempt on the season while Ford has picked up 5.7 yards per rush attempt on 9.5 carries per game with 3.6 yards per attempt before contact and 2.1 yards after. Ford sees involvement in the passing game, he was targeted seven times in Week 1, hauling in six of them for 25 yards, but he dipped to just two targets and one catch in Week 2. Ford is a low-cost running back who slots in as RB16/15 on DraftKings and RB16/18 on FanDuel. The Browns have a pair of high-end receivers in Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy, neither is a star but either one is capable of a big game. Cooper has been a frequent target in the offense, he saw nine opportunities in Week 1 and eight in Week 2 but he has just five catches for 27 yards on the season in a limited connection with the team’s scuffling quarterback. Similarly, Jeudy has drawn volume, seeing eight targets in Week 1 and six in Week 2. The veteran receiver had a bit more success, he caught three passes for just 25 yards but got into the end zone on one of them in Week 1 and picked up 73 yards on five catches last weekend. Jeudy and Cooper will be the primary options in a limited passing attack that features Jordan Akins as a backup tight end with Njoku out, Elijah Moore, who had 44 yards on six catches and eight targets in Week 2, and no other significant option. These players are all limited by the passing work of Deshaun Watson, who completed 24 of 45 passes for 169 yards in Week 1, throwing one touchdown but two interceptions. He did not throw an interception in Week 2 but he also threw zero touchdowns and completed 22 of 34 attempts for just 186 yards. Watson ran the ball five times in each game, picking up a rushing touchdown in his limited Week 2 performance, he is a low-end option at QB15/10 and QB15/16 in Stack 16/15 and 18/16.
Dallas Cowboys
Game Total: 49 / DAL +1.0 (24.0 imp.)
Plays: 36.51% rush / 63.49% pass
oppDEF: 2.7 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass
Key Player: Dak Prescott
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, Ezekiel Elliott, Jalen Tolbert, Jalen Brookw (Q; large field), KaVontate Turpin (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry
Lineup Notes: The Cowboys are facing a team that has allowed the fewest rush yards per attempt at just 2.7ypa over the first two weeks. The Ravens’ pass defense has not been as firm, yielding 7.8 yards per pass attempt to land 28th out of 32 teams. This plays to the Cowboys’ strengths, the team’s rushing attack is limited this season with duties split somewhat evenly between Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott. Dowdle has gained 3.7 yards per rush attempt to the 3.5 yards per attempt gained by Elliott on similar snap counts and touch volume in a true job share. Ultimately we still favor Dowdle to win the job in the longterm but this is currently a murky situation on the ground. The far more appealing option is to take to the air in Dallas and hope for the high-scoring shootout that the 49-point Vegas total and 1-point spread would suggest. Dak Prescott has a pair of passing touchdowns but has also thrown two interceptions over two weeks while averaging 35.5 pass attempts. The high-volume pass attack gets down the field effectively, Prescott has 8.7 intended air yards per attempt on the season though he has managed to complete just 6.6 yards per attempt and 3.6 air yards per attempt. The primary weapon for the quarterback is star receiver CeeDee Lamb, who gained 90 yards and scored a touchdown on 4-7 receiving in Week 2. In the first game, Lamb caught five of 10 passes for 61 yards but failed to score. The receiver has garnered 33.78% of the team’s air yards share with an 11.9-yard ADOT, with veteran Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert accounting for the main recipients of the surplus. Cooks has a 16.05% air yards share on a 10.7-yard ADOT with 4.5 targets per game and a touchdown, while Tolber has a 21.91% share on an 11.9-yard ADOT with 5.5 targets per game over two outings. Tight end Jake Ferguson missed Week 2 but is scheduled to return this weekend, he is another high-end option in the passing attack who should see significant action in the red zone with touchdown upside on any given slate. Ferguson caught just three passes on five targets in an empty Week 1 outing. The Cowboys are a good option as the weaker side of a premium Week 2 game with a 47.5-point total, they are implied for 24.o points which outpaces many of the favorites on this slate. Dallas is Stack 10/12 on DraftKings and Stack 13/14 on FanDuel while Lamb is WR2/11 and 2/16 across sites as a high-quality standalone play in addition to stacked exposure.
Denver Broncos
Game Total: 39.5 / DEN +6.5 (16.5 imp.)
Plays: 35.20% rush / 64.80% pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass
Key Player: Bo Nix
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Greg Dulcich, Devaughn Vele, Marvin Mims Jr., Javonte Williams (on/off), Jaleel McLaughlin (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton
Lineup Notes: The Broncos have been one of the more low-end teams in the league over the first two weeks. Denver has averaged just 13 points per game, 29th out of 32 teams, while posting a 28th-ranked 263 yards per game on offense. In the rushing game, the Broncos have gained just 3.7 yards per attempt, 25th in football, with a 27th-ranked 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is a limiting factor for this offense early in his career, though it is not for a lack of attempts. In Week 1, the neophyte threw the ball 42 times, completing 26 of his attempts for a limited 3.3 yards per attempt and posting 138 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Nix came back with 35 attempts in Week 2, completing 20 of them for 246 yards while throwing another two interceptions and zero touchdowns. Nix did score on the ground in Week 1, converting one of his five rushing attempts and racking up 35 total rush yards, he ran four times for 25 yards last weekend. The rookie has one solid receiver in Courtland Sutton, who caught four of a whopping 12 targets in Week 1, though most of the missed connections were not on the receiver. Sutton is joined by Josh Reynolds who has an 11.9-yard ADOT and 28.03% of the air yards with 6.5 targets per game early in 2024. Reynolds is a limited option but he has been drawing more looks than Greg Dulcich at tight end or fellow receiver Marvin Mims Jr. who has been relegated to just 1.5 opportunities per game. The Broncos’ rushing game has also been uninspiring. Javonte Williams has gained just 2.1 yards per rush attempt on 9.5 carries per game, posting 23 yards in Week 1 and 17 in Week 2, with six total catches on seven targets for 48 yards across both games. Jaleel McLaughlin has gained 2.5 yards per attempt on 6.5 carries per game, averaging 1.2 yards before contact and 1.3 after contact in his limited action. McLaughlin carried the ball 10 times for 27 yards in Week 1, adding one receiving yard on 5-5 receiving, mostly operating behind the line. In Week 2 he was barely involved, carrying the ball just three times for six yards and drawing zero targets despite running 14 routes on his 17 snaps. Denver is Stack 23/21 and Stack 25/23 this week, they are not appealing on either site.
Detroit Lions
Game Total: 52 / DET -2.5 (27.25 imp.)
Plays: 40.28% rush / 59.72% pass
oppDEF: 3.5 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond (large field), Tim Patrick (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, James Conner, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch (Q)
Lineup Notes: As the slightly favored side of the slate’s most heavily-totaled game, the Lions are a strong but popular option for stacks in Week 3. Detroit ranks as Stack 3/7 on DraftKings and Stack 3/4 on the FanDuel slate, they are highly playable on either site. Jared Goff slots in as QB8/8 on DraftKings and QB8/4 on the blue site. Goff is an excellent volume-based option who has thrown the ball 41.5 times per game over the season’s first two contests. The quarterback will be facing an Arizona defense that sits 31st out of 32 teams, allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt on the season. The Lions’ offensive output has been slightly limited to start the season, as with many teams around the league their passing game has been somewhat slow to develop scoring this year. Goff has thrown just one touchdown pass despite the volume, offsetting that with three interceptions early in the season. The quarterback has also been a bit conservative early on, posting just 6.7 intended air yards per pass attempt with 6.3 yards per pass attempt overall. Goff has developed a strong early connection with receiver Jameson Williams, who is finally fully engaged from the outset for a season. Williams has drawn 10 targets per game over the first two contests but that has come somewhat at the expense of volume to star tight end Sam LaPorta who has seen just four targets per game. LaPorta caught four of five targets for 45 yards in Week 1 and two of three for 13 yards in a disappointing Week 2, but he is a strong option for a bounceback in a head-to-head competition with elite Trey McBride at the position on the other side of this contest. Williams had 121 yards and a touchdown on five catches in Week 1 and added another 79 yards in Week 2 while garnering a monster 46.72% of the team’s air yards on a 12.8-yard ADOT. Of course, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the true lead option in this passing attack. In Week 1, St. Brown was surprisingly low-end, coming away with just three catches for 13 yards on his six targets over just 29 routes on 60 snaps. In 76 snaps in Week 2, St. Brown ran 50 routes and drew a target on 36%, posting an 11-18 receiving day for 119 yards but failed to score a touchdown. Against a weak Arizona pass defense, Goff and his receivers have a chance to shine. Further down the depth chart, both Kalif Raymond and Tim Patrick have seen limited looks, with Raymond drawing two targets per game underneath and Patrick operating on a 12.7-yard ADOT over three targets per game. Of course, the Lions have an elite multi-headed running back monster to deal with as well. Jahmyr Gibbs has carried the ball 12 times per game for 5.2 yards per attempt, scoring once and posting 62 rush yards per game while adding 5.5 catches on 6.5 targets per game for 4.3 yards per target. Counterpart David Montgomery has seen a nearly identical 14 carries per game with 4.5 yards per attempt and two rushing touchdowns but is less involved in the passing game with 2.5 targets per game over two weekends. Both running backs are in play, they split this job equitably with both players providing significant potential for chunk plays and scoring upside. While there are limitations in job shares, this is the most playable shared running back spot in football, we do not want to roster both Lions ball carriers but either one is a fine option on most slates. Detroit ranks as Stack 3/7 on DraftKings and Stack 3/4 on FanDuel while St. Brown is WR3/12 and 4/22 with LaPorta as TE2/6 and 2/3 across sites. The Lions are strong in stacks and as standalone players across other lineups and there are bring-back plays with either side of this game.
Green Bay Packers
Game Total: 37.5 / GB + 2.5 (17.0 imp.)
Plays: 59.20% rush / 40.80% pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 3.9 ypa pass
Key Player: Jordan Love (Q)
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Josh Jacobs (on/off), Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyjae Spears (Q), Tyler Boyd
Lineup Notes: The deciding factor in the quality provided by Green Bay’s offense this week will be the status of quarterback Jordan Love, who is currently questionable as a true game-time decision on Sunday. Love practiced in limited fashion throughout the week but the team has been coy about whether he will play, while we are providing him as the projected option for sanity’s sake, the current inclination is that Malik Willis will be at the helm for one more week. If it is the true starter, Love himself would provide a playable option as QB11/11 and QB11/7 across sites and he gains value as a stacked quarterback with excellent wide receiver options at a range of prices. Any of Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, or Dontaviyon Wicks can get involved on any given slate, they are excellent Love+2 options that can share a high-volume game. Reed has the most target volume with four opportunities per game and a 12.6-yard ADOT, but the numbers were skewed by one week with Love and one with Willis. In Love’s start, Reed caught four of six passes for 138 yards and a touchdown, adding a carry for a big 33-yard gain and a rushing touchdown. In the Week 2 game, he had just two catches on two targets for nine yards while gaining 37 on two carries. Reed is a multi-faceted star-caliber player with a significant weekly ceiling, he will benefit greatly from playing with the more talented quarterback. Watson picked up five targets in Week 1, running 27 routes while playing 37 snaps with the offense. He played 40 snaps in Week 2 but ran just nine routes and went untargeted in the limited offense. Watson was not the only receiver to suffer, Doubs went from seven targets on 32 routes over 52 snaps in Week 1 to three targets on 16 routes in the same number of snaps in Week 2 and Wicks ran just nine routes, though he did catch three of four for 26 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. All four receivers would stand to return to form with the return of Love. If Willis is under center things are most likely going to land more like last week’s game in which the receiving corps was limited, while veteran running back Josh Jacobs picked up a gigantic 32 carries for 151 yards, though he did fail to pick up a touchdown. Jacobs would make for a good standalone play in other lineups if the backup quarterback starts again this week, the Packers’ passing attack would be the option in a Love start, though even in that situation they are just Stack 15/19 and Stack 17/15.
Houston Texans
Game Total: 46 / HOU -2.5 (24.25 imp.)
Plays: 45.26% rush / 54.74% pass
oppDEF: 3.8 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Cam Akers, Dalton Schultz
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson (Q), Aaron Jones, Ty Chandler, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Powell
Lineup Notes: Joe Mixon is doubtful and Dameon Pierce is out, creating a messy situation in the backfield for Houston this week. The Texans will have to work with a tandem of Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale, with a mixer of British Brooks, all of whom are limited options. Akers and Ogunbowale are both veterans who have never provided much quality or reliability. Akers will, presumably, be the lead back, his career peaked with 786 yards and seven touchdowns on 188 carries in 15 games in 2022 but he was limited to 60 carries and two touchdowns with less than 200 yards on the ground between the Rams and Vikings last season. Akers did not play in Week 1, he gained 32 yards on seven carries and caught one pass for three yards in Week 2. Ogunbowale carried the ball twice for three yards and caught two of two passes for another 20 in Week 2, playing 19 snaps with the offense and running nine routes. The veteran running back is in play for a portion of the carries in a backup role to Akers, he could get more involved in the passing game depending on the game flow. The Texans will likely be firing the ball through the air in this matchup. The game carries a 46-point total and the teams are separated by just two points. This should be a high-scoring shootout between two capable offenses with solid skill-position weapons. Houston’s offense features three premium receivers, the current low man among them is second-year standout Tank Dell, who has been kept mostly quiet over two weeks. Dell caught just three passes but drew seven targets in Week 1, posting 40 yards on 33 routes with another 19 yards added on two rushing attempts. Veteran Stefon Diggs was brought to town to haul in touchdown passes from excellent second-year quarterback CJ Stroud, they connected for a pair of scores in Week 1 while gaining 33 yards on 6-6 receiving. Diggs had four catches on six targets for 37 yards but did not score in Week 2. The lead option in the passing attack, by a fair margin, has been Nico Collins, who saw eight targets and caught six passes for 117 yards in Week 1 then followed it with 135 yards on 8-10 receiving last week in a game in which the team’s offense did not need to do much to win against a non-competitive Bears team. CJ Stroud threw for just 260 yards and one touchdown on his 36 attempts in Week 2, he had 234 yards and two touchdowns on 32 attempts in Week 1. Stroud is an affordable high-volume quarterback who should see additional opportunities to throw the ball for two reasons: the absence of a capable ground game on his side, and a high-scoring game environment with a competitive opponent on the other side. The Texans are Stack 4/6 on DraftKings and Stack 7/3 on FanDuel.
Indianapolis Colts
Game Total: 43.5 / IND +1.5 (22.5 imp.)
Plays: 41.67% rush / 58.33% pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 5.0 ypa pass
Key Player: Anthony Richardson
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Richardson lineups)
Team Group: Michael Pittman Jr. (Q), Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, Kylen Granson
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, DeAndre Carter, D’Andre Swift
Lineup Notes: Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is the Mariana Trench. He is Plato. He is a 1977 movie featuring Nick Nolte and a stunning Jacqueline Bisset that was basically remade with Paul Walker and Jessica Alba in 2005’s Into the Blue, which is to say that Richardson is The Deep. Over the season’s first two games, the quarterback has an astounding 13.7 intended air yards per attempt with a completed 7.8 yards per pass attempt and 5.6 air yards per attempt. Richardson has established downfield connections with his strong receiving corps and the team is getting Josh Downs back in Week 3. Downs was second on the team in receiving yards last season and should provide a good option underneath, he had a 6.9-yard ADOT with 771 yards and two touchdowns on 98 targets in 2023. Richardson’s prime target is Michael Pittman Jr. who is reportedly likely to play on Sunday despite missing practice in what seems more like an excused absence on Friday. Pittman has yet to score in 2024, he caught four of eight passes for 31 yards in Week 1 and three of seven for just 21 yards in Week 2, while drawing a solid 10.8-yard average depth of target. Of course, on this team, that qualifies as limited depth. Alec Pierce has drawn 33.53% of the team’s air yards share on a 22.5-yard ADOT and five targets per game while rookie Adonai Mitchell has seen 4.5 passes per game in his direction on an 18.9-yard ADOT for 25.34% of the air yards. Pierce has scored twice, he posted a monster 125 yards and a touchdown on three catches in Week 1 and caught five of seven targets for 56 yards and a score in Week 2. Mitchell has not found the end zone and has caught just one pass in each game despite drawing five targets in Week 1 and four in Week 2. The rookie could lose volume to the return of Downs. The three-headed mediocre tight end is an afterthought in this offense, though a few touchdowns are bound to go down that drain throughout the season. Jonathan Taylor remains a high-priority running back most weeks. Taylor has gained 3.8 yards before contact and 1.6 yards after contact per rushing attempt this season, posting one touchdown on the ground with limited involvement in the passing attack. The running back drew 16 carries in Week 1, rushing for 48 yards and a score, he was untargeted despite running 21 routes in the passing game. In Week 2 his volume fell to 12 carries but he gained 103 yards while catching two of four targets for 32 yards on 12 routes. Taylor has a reasonable path to 18-20 touches in most weeks, he is playable as a standalone option in other lineups as RB6/7 and RB6/6 across sites. Richardson ranks as QB5/6 and QB7/5, given his ability to run the ball he is playable on his own as well as in stacks. The preference should still be to stack this quarterback however, he has excellent downfield receivers who have a clear connection and big play ability, making them strong assets for correlated scoring. The Colts are a good option in stacks across both sites, they rank as Stack 8/9 on DraftKings and Stack 10/6 on the FanDuel slate where they provide strong points-per-dollar value. The Indianapolis defense is also an interesting option that ranks as Defense 7/12 on DraftKings but Defense 8/1 on FanDuel against a limited Bears offense.
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Total: 46.5 / KC -3.5 (25.0 imp.)
Plays: 47.71% rush / 52.29% pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, Noah Gray, Justin Watson (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud III
Lineup Notes: Isiah Pacheco is out for several weeks with a broken leg, creating a gaping hole in the rushing attack for Kansas City. The Chiefs are the second-half of the strong late-night-hammer game on the FanDuel slate. Kansas City is favored by three on the road in Atlanta in a game with a 46.5-point total, pushing a 25-point implied total in their direction. The Chiefs are expected to utilize first year man Carson Steele as their lead back and in short-yardage situations, while veteran Samaje Perine will handle most of the backfield work in the passing game. Perine did not touch the ball on the ground over the season’s first two weeks but he drew two targets in Week 1 and one look in Week 2. Steele picked up seven carries and gained 24 yards in last week’s game but went untargeted on three routes run, he should see a major uptick from the 14 snaps he played with the offense last week. The running back was undrafted out of UCLA this year, he gained 847 yards and scored six touchdowns on 167 attempts as a Junior last year, following a season in which he gained 1556 yards on 289 attempts with 14 touchdowns before transferring from Ball State. Steele is reportedly a player that the Chiefs are high on, he should have every opportunity on early downs and on red zone carries, and he has the size to make an impact at 6’1″ and 225lbs. Steele rates as RB 26/16 on FanDuel with upside for more but he is not an unknown commodity on this slate after being one of the most popular waiver claims of the week. The Chiefs are far more straightforward in the passing game. Patrick Mahomes is a star quarterback who lands as QB3 by points but just QB12 by points-per-dollar at an $8,700 FanDuel price. Mahomes has managed 8.3 yards per pass attempt with three touchdowns and three interceptions on 26.5 attempts per game in a somewhat limited start to the season. Part of his success has come on big plays from skill players after he has put the ball in their hands, but that is commonplace for this offense. Mahomes remains a strong weekly option and he should develop further connections with rookie Xavier Worthy in an attempt to replicate the Tyreek Hill role in this offense, while Rashee Rice is the more high-volume option at wide receiver and tight end Travis Kelce is still the leader in the passing attack. Among all of the Chiefs, Kelce is the most disappointing to start 2024. The expensive and highly drafted tight end has caught two passes per game for 5.6 yards per target and no scores over two games. Of course, Kelce will course correct in a hurry but even the most skeptical anti-Taylor Swift curmudgeon in the land (you know who that is) would have expected more than three catches for 34 yards on four targets in Week 1 and one catch for five yards on just three targets in Week 2. Kelce should be primed for more output in a high-scoring Sunday Night matchup. Rice has been good early in the season, he had 103 yards on 7-9 receiving in Week 1 and 75 yards with a touchdown on 5-6 receiving last weekend, he is the clear number one in the passing attack. Worthy brings outrageous speed to the roster, he burst onto the scene in Week 1 with 47 yards and a touchdown on 2-3 receiving and a 21 yard run for another touchdown but fell flat in Week 2 with just 17 yards on 2-4 receiving and one carry for five yards. Worthy will be a major hit-and-miss option through the season but the skillset demands shares in larger field tournaments, he will have more big weeks to come with the ability to simply run away from opponents. The Chiefs have depth in backup tight end Noah Gray as well as more limited wide receivers Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Skyy Moore. Kansas City is a playable Stack 6 by points and Stack 5 by points-per-dollar as a late-night option on the long FanDuel slate, they are not available in DraftKings lineups.
Las Vegas Raiders
Game Total: 40 / LV -5.5 (23.25 imp.)
Plays: 32.77% rush / 67.23% pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
Key Player: Gardner Minshew
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Zamir White (on/off), Alexander Mattison (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Diontae Johnson, Adam Theilen, Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, Chuba Hubbard
Lineup Notes: The Raiders present an interesting option against a bad defense this week. Vegas is favored by 5.5 in a game with a mere 40-point total, which would not typically be the most appealing situation, but there is some expectation that Carolina could pick up production in the offense with veteran Andy Dalton taking over. Carolina already plays a high-paced offense with an unsuccessful high-volume passing attack, they could keep things interesting. The Panthers’ defense has allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt on the season, 25th in football while giving up 164.5 yards per game through the air. That total ranks 10th which is deceptive because it comes on just 36.22% opponent pass play volume, the second-lowest mark in the league. Carolina has been bad enough that teams have not had to throw the ball much against them over the first two weeks, when they opponents have taken to the air they have been highly successful. Las Vegas currently leads the league in neutral passing rate, they have thrown the ball on 67.23% of their plays this season and they have only limited options in the rushing game with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison splitting duties with a slight lean toward White. Overall, this is a passing-friendly offense with significant weapons at the skill positions, they should not be overlooked in Week 3 and could easily provide an under-appreciated tournament-winning upside. Quarterback Gardner Minshew II threw the ball 33 times in Week 1 and 38 times in Week 2, completing 25 and 30 attempts respectively. Minshew threw for 257 yards with one touchdown and one interception the first week and nearly replicated the result last weekend with 276 yards and one of each. The quarterback has a clear path to more scoring potential and he is under less threat from the opposing defense in this matchup. Minshew has established a strong early connection with excellent rookie tight end Brock Bowers who has seen instant volume in this attack and elevates immediately to one of the upper tiers at the position every week. Bowers caught six of eight passes for 58 yards in Week 1 and hauled in all nine targets for 98 yards but failed to score in Week 2. Of course, the tight end is at best the second option in the passing attack behind star receiver Davante Adams who had a solid Week 2 with 110 yards and a touchdown on 9-12 receiving for 9.2 yards per target. Adams posted 9.8 yards per target in Week 1 but came away with just 59 yards on 5-6 receiving. Adams has garnered 53.68% of the air yards in the offense over two weeks on a 10.9-yard ADOT, he is a true number one in every sense against this defense and could be primed for a huge week. Jakobi Meyers caught three passes for 61 yards in Week 1 and four for 29 yards in Week 2, he saw one target in the red zone but failed to convert. Meyers was an involved receiver throughout the season last year, he caught 71 of 106 targets for 807 yards and eight touchdowns. Meyers is an inexpensive touchdown-dependent option in Week 2, he has appreciable upside in stacks of Raiders. Tre Tucker has seen 2.5 targets per game on limited depth while none of the depth receivers have been extensively involved in the offense. On the ground, White out-snapped Mattison in Week 2 with nine carries and four targets on 21 routes over 39 snaps to Mattison’s four carries and zero targets on 13 snaps. In Week 1, however, Mattison out-snapped White 35-23 but White won the touch battle 15-9. The two are limiting to one another, neither is a particularly appealing NFL DFS option this week, but Zamir White would be the better choice, he rates as RB17/12 on both sites. The Raiders Defense is an obvious selection against Carolina, they rank as Defense 2/8 on DraftKings and 2/10 on FanDuel. Overall, the Raiders stack is Stack 14/8 on DraftKings and STack 14/11 on FanDuel, they are a better points-per-dollar play than a raw projection option but they are easily on the board against the low-end Panthers, if Carolina can hang in the game it could get more interesting than it seems on the surface with pace and passing volume.
Los Angeles Chargers
Game Total: 36 / LAC + 2.5 (16.75 imp.)
Plays: 59.66% rush / 40.34% pass
oppDEF: 3.7 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer (Q), Hayden Hurst, JK Dobbins
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: George Pickens, Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren
Lineup Notes: The Chargers have been limited over the first two weeks and little seems poised to change in Week 3. Los Angeles comes in with a 16.75-point implied team total against the Steelers in a game with a limited 36 points overall. The Chargers are dealing with an injury to quarterback Justin Herbert who is questionable but seems like a true game-time decision. If Herbert does not play the Chargers slip even further down the board with Easton Stick driving. Assuming Herbert plays, the team is still limited in stacks. Los Angeles has scored 24 points per game to start the season, gaining 5.6 yards per rush attempt with a shockingly effective JK Dobbins leading the way but picking up just 5.9 yards per pass attempt to land 24th in the league. Dobbins carried the ball 10 times in Week 1, gaining a monster 135 yards and scoring a touchdown and adding four yards on 3-3 receiving. In Week 2 he gained another 131 yards on 17 carries with a second touchdown. Dobbins ran just nine routes in Week 2 with one catch on one target. The running back shares volume with Gus Edwards who carried the ball 18 times in Week 2. Edwards gained just 59 yards and failed to score after posting just 26 yards on 11 carries in Week 1, he is limited and also limiting to Dobbins’ true ceiling. Dobbins becomes a bit of a trap with the under-the-radar timeshare obscured by his hefty totals on efficient explosive running over the first two weeks, the upside may not hold through the season. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Joshua Palmer have made a limited receiving trio early in 2024. McConkey is a rookie who drew seven targets with five catches and a touchdown in Week 1 but slipped to just two catches on four targets in Week 2. Johnston came on somewhat last weekend, catching five passes for 51 yards and a pair of touchdowns on six opportunities. Palmer has been the limited option in the passing attack after garnering preseason buzz and “sleeper” reporting in season-long drafts. The receiver has caught just two passes in each of the team’s two games, posting 15 and 19 yards over Weeks 1 and 2. Hayden Hurst has a 7.4-yard ADOT with 12.85% of the team’s limited air yards, he has not scored on 2.5 targets per game but he is the limited head of the tight end position on this team. Los Angeles ranks as Stack 22/24 and 24/26 across sites, they are not a good option. The Steelers defense is an interesting option against this squad on the other side of this game.
Los Angeles Rams
Game Total: (18.0 imp.)
Plays: 44.5 / LAR +7.5 (18.0 imp.)
oppDEF: 5.0 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington, Colby Parkinson, Tutu Atwell (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Chris Conley
Lineup Notes: Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are out. Davis Allen is out. Two of those matter and make a gigantic impact on a previously intriguing Rams’ passing attack. Los Angeles is relegated to relying on Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson in the primary receiving roles with contributions also expected from Jordan Whittington and others. The best that quarterback Matthew Stafford can hope for at this point is a trade. For NFL DFS gamers, more hope probably lies in running back Kyren Williams in this Week 3 matchup. Williams ranks as RB7/13 on DraftKings and RB7/8 on FanDuel after scoring in both of the first two games. Williams gained just 25 yards on 12 carries, adding 27 yards on 4-5 receiving last week, he had 50 yards on 18 carries in Week 1. Stafford threw the ball 49 times in Week 1 but 21 of those were in the direction of now-absent Cooper Kupp. In Week 2 the quarterback mustered just 27 pass attempts, completing 19 of them for 216 yards and zero touchdowns. Robinson caught four of seven passes in Week 1 but just two of four in Week 2, gaining 42 and 50 yards respectively as he steps into the lead receiving job. Johnson was unproductive in Week 2, catching two of there passes for 20 yards after a better Week 1 in which he caught five of seven passes for 79 yards. Whittington had a touchdown called back on his lone opportunity in Week 1, he caught two of two targets for 22 yards in Week 2. Tight end Colby Parkinson is another limited option in this offense, he caught four of five for 47 yards in Week 1 but just one of two in the second game. Among the available Rams receivers, Tutu Atwell leads with a 13.8-yard ADOT but he has seen just two opportunities per game early in the season while Robinson has a 12.1-yard ADOT with 29.89% of the air yards. Other than Williams, none of the Rams rank as good options, even Stafford lands as just QB20 by points. The Rams are Stack 20/20 on DraftKings and 22/22 on FanDuel.
Miami Dolphins
Game Total: 41 / MIA +5.0 (18.0 imp.)
Plays: 42.14% rush / 57.86% pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 3.7 ypa pass
Key Player: Skylar Thompson
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith, Braxton Berrios
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Tyler Locket, Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant
Lineup Notes: Raheem Mostert is doubtful. Tua Tagovailoa is out. The impact of Tagovailoa’s absence on Miami’s passing attack will be significant, but the team remains playable given the elite nature of their skill players. To a degree, all that backup Skylar Thompson has to do is successfully put the ball in the hands of Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle, all of whom have game-breaking ability on the field. Hill ranks as WR5/19 and 5/24 across sites, Achane is RB1/2 on DraftKings and RB2/2 on FanDuel, and Waddle is not far behind as WR25/23 and 24/25, the quarterback can be a limiting factor but these are significant ceiling options. Hill managed just 24 yards on 3-6 receiving in Week 2 after putting up a big 130-yard game with a touchdown on 7-12 receiving to open the season. Waddle caught five of five for 109 yards in Week 1 and had four catches on four targets but managed just 41 yards in Week 2. Achane should have the backfield mostly to himself again this week. Achane allayed fears that he was not capable of carrying a full workload once again in Week 2, carrying the ball 22 times for 96 yards and adding seven catches on seven targets for another 69-yard and a score. Achane is a very high-end running back with speed to burn, he does not need much quarterback help to succeed and he would be the best option from this team in non-stacked lineups. Tight end Jonnu Smith caught six passes for 53 yards in Week 2, picking up seven targets on 27 routes after being targeted just twice on 14 routes in Week 1. Smith is a capable option who could have red zone upside and provide irregular touchdown-dependent output for a fair price. Jaylen Wright should see a handful of carries in a backup role but he posted just four yards on five attempts in his Week 2 action after missing the first week. Braxton Berrios and Jeff Wilson Jr. are limited options for NFL DFS action, they will suit up but should see opportunities only sparingly. The Dolphins are carrying just an 18-point total in a game that is slated to just 41 with Seattle favored but there is a clear path to success and the Dolphins’ stars could come up under-owned for the opportunity.
Minnesota Vikings
Game Total: 46 / MIN +2.5 (21.75 imp.)
Plays: 47.62% rush / 52.38% pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Powell, Johnny Mundt (large field), Josh Oliver (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Cam Akers, Dalton Schultz
Lineup Notes: Jordan Addison is out but Justin Jefferson has no injury designation heading into Week 3 after dodging the injury bug in Week 2. Jefferson gained 133 yards on just four receptions in Week 2, posting a touchdown and 19.0 yards per target on his seven looks. The receiver has a premium 13.7-yard ADOT with 48.99% of the team’s air yards over two weeks, he is a super-premium all over the field receiver with significant big play upside and a developing connection with quarterback Sam Darnold. Backup receiver Jalen Nailor has been interesting for downfield looks as well, pulling in a 14.4-yard ADOT with 20.87% of the team’s air yards in early action. Nailor has already been in the end zone twice this season, scoring in each of the team’s first two games with a 21 yard scoring play in Week 1 and three catches for 54 yards last week. Nailor will be joined by Brandon Powell who has been targeted only one per game on a limited depth of target, while Trent Sherfield Sr. is similarly limited for volume in a more downfield role. Running back Aaron Jones was hurt and underwhelming through most of last season before posting five straight games of more than 100 yards over the last three regular-season games and two playoff weeks last year. Jones is a highly involved running back when it comes to the passing game, giving him strong potential touch upside on most slates. In Week 1 he carried the ball 14 times and caught two of two targets for 109 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. In Week 2 the veteran carried the ball just nine times for 32 yards but picked up an additional 36 yards on 5-6 receiving. Jones is affordable on either site, he has gained 5.5 yards per rush attempt on the season with 3.0 before contact and 2.4 after contact per attempt while yielding limited volume to backup Ty Chandler. The backup was a per-touch monster in Week 2, posting 82 yards on 10 carries but he failed to score. Chandler saw eight carries and added three targets in Week 1, he seems likely for 8-12 potential touches per week as a mix-in backup with big play ability. The Vikings will go exactly as far as Darnold can take them, over two weeks that looks like a reasonable deal for the unexpected quarterback. Darnold was brought in as the backup but was thrust into the starting role when the team lost their prized rookie early in the preseason. Darnold threw for 208 yards and two touchdowns on 19-24 passing in Week 1 and added another two touchdowns and 268 yards on 17-26 passing while playing short both Addison and Jefferson for portions of Week 2. The quarterback never lived up to his draft pedigree going back to his time in New York. The Jets drafted Darnold as one in a long chain of potential saviors, he was neither the first nor the last on that list. Darnold crumbled under the weight of expectations, cracking 3,000 yards passing in just one of his Jets seasons, a 3,024 yard season with 19 touchdowns, both career highs. Darnold left for Carolina in 2021, he played 12 games and threw for 2,527 yards with nine touchdowns in an unsuccessful season before losing his job the following year. Darnold played in San Francisco as a backup last season and seems to have grown as a player, he is interesting and could be carried to success by the talent of his receivers, particularly when Addison returns. For Week 3, Darnold is QB13/3 on DraftKings, where he has strong points-per-dollar value. On FanDuel, the signal caller is QB13/6. Jefferson is WR1/9 on DraftKings and WR1/10 on FanDuel and the stack overall lands as Stack 12/10 on DraftKings and 11/17 on FanDuel.
New Orleans Saints
Game Total: 49.5 / NO -2.5 (26.0 imp.)
Plays: 64.41% rush / 35.59% pass
oppDEF: 6.4 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olvae, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau (large field), Cedrick Wilson (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Britain Covey
Lineup Notes: At 49.5, the game total between the Saints and Eagles is one of the most appealing spots on the board. New Orleans has been a hyper-productive offense to start the season, their 45.5 points per game is easily the top mark in the league over two weeks. New Orleans has gained 4.9 yards per rush attempt and a massive 11.0 yards per pass attempt on aggressive deep shots down the field. Quarterback Derek Carr has been an early standout, regaining all of the hype that he had entering this situation before a limited and injury-marred 2023. Carr has an immediate connection with downfield weapon Rashid Shaheed who scored in each of the first two games. Shaheed has drawn just nine targets in two games, catching seven of them. He had three catches for 73 yards and a score in Week 1 and four catches for 96 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, adding 13 yards on three rushing attempts. Shaheed has picked up a 17.6-yard average depth of target and 46.06% of the team’s air yards share despite his moderate volume, he is one of the top “home run” play options on the slate against a flimsy Eagles’ pass defense that ranks 26th with 7.6 yards allowed per pass attempt. Of course, Shaheed is only the second, or even third, option in the passing attack. The receiver is the downfield option in tandem with star Chris Olave and running back Alvin Kamara. Olave has drawn an 11.4-yard ADOT and 26.53% of the air yards on four targets per game but has not scored. His Week 2 was an uptick with four catches for 81 yards on six targets, he should continue to emerge in Week 3. Kamara scored four times in a gargantuan Week 2 performance, he is always good for potential touchdowns and occasionally will put up a slate-breaking beast of a day that one can only hope to have rostered. Kamara sees significant volume in both aspects of the offense, he has carried the ball 17.5 times per game over the first two while adding four targets per game. While most running back options strive for 20 or more potential touches, that tends to be the minimum for Kamara, he is an excellent selection both in and out of stacks of Saints. The team has a multi-way tight end problem, Foster Moreau has been the nominal starter in a bit of a surprise ahead of productive receiver Juwan Johnson, who is still our preferred tight end in this offense. Johnson should see an uptick in potential with Moreau unproductive and Taysom Hill acting as a gadget player who can catch, throw, and run the ball. Hill will provide one or two big games this season, but even those are unlikely to be slate-winning as he is typically over-exposed in good spots and does not reach ceiling scores even in good weeks. Cedrick Wilson Jr. is, at best, a mix-in option, he has gone untargeted over two games despite running six routes on 38 total snaps. Mason Tipton and Jordan Mims are similarly extreme low-volume plays who are unlikely to provide any NFL DFS upside even in Stack 1/1 on DraftKings and Stack 1/1 on FanDuel. This game is extremely appealing with premium skill options on both sides, there are significant bring-back weapons in every construction, the only concern would be heavy volume going to both Kamara and opposing running back Saquon Barkley in an unexpected low-volume clock-chewing twist. This seems unlikely, this game is one of our top stacking opportunities of the week. Update: Taysom Hill is doubtful.
New York Giants
Game Total: 39 / NYG +3.0 (16.5 imp.)
Plays: 36.13% rush / 63.87% pass
oppDEF: 5.0 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: at most one/at least one (at most will allow for “naked” Jones lineups)
Team Group: Malik Nabers, Devin Singletary, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Jerome Ford, Elijah Moore
Lineup Notes: This is not a good football team but they have one very good player, rookie receiver Malik Nabers. The first week working with Daniel Jones was probably not exactly as Nabers imagined, he drew seven targets and caught five passes for a productive but ultimately limited 66 yards and no score. In Week 2 he was the only significant target in Daniel Jones’ passing cone. Nabers picked up a ridiculous 18 targets and caught 10 of them for 127 yards and a touchdown. The rookie was outstanding, he dragged Daniel Jones to a reasonable-looking line, not the other way around, though the Giants still managed to lose this game. Nabers will continue to have weekly upside, even working with a bad quarterback in a bad offense. The receiver is playable as an individual while the Giants stack looks more limited against a quality Cleveland defense. New York ranks as Stack 17/14 and Stack 19/19, and only Nabers ranks as a playable individual at WR9/1 and 9/3 across sites. Running back Devin Singletary has never had a 1,000 yard season and he seems unlikely to reach that peak this year, though he did gain 95 yards on 16 carries with a touchdown in Week 2. Singletary is a low-end running back option who ranks as RB21/23 and RB20/22 across sites. Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton will suit up as low-end wide receivers. Robinson was targeted 12 times but caught just six passes in Week 1 then fell to just two catches on four targets on 22 routes, down from 37 the week before. Slayton saw four targets each week but his route share dropped from 38 to 26 while snaps went from just 49 to 45. Tight end Theo Johnson was a lost cause in Week 2, he went untargeted with his route share dropping from 31 to 15 after picking up four targets but failing to catch any of them in Week 1. Johnson is a low-end play at the position, he does not rank well on either site. Receiver Jalin Hyatt has been targeted once down the field this season, picking up an 18.0-yard ADOT but failing to catch the lone target on an errant throw, typical of the Jones-Hyatt disconnection. The Giants are not an appealing stack this week and Daniel Jones is, at best, a limited quarterback despite some potential in the rushing game. Jones threw for two touchdowns but had just 178 yards on 16-28 passing last week and went 22-42 for 186 yards with two interceptions in Week 1.
Philadelphia Eagles
Game Total: 49.5 / PHI +2.5 (23.5 imp.)
Plays: 52.82% rush / 47.18% pass
oppDEF: 3.1 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Britain Covey, Parris Campbell (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olvae, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson
Lineup Notes: AJ Brown is out again in Week 3 but the options remain strong for Philadelphia on the other side of a 49.5 total from the Saints in a game separated by just 2.5 points. Philadelphia is helmed by Jalen Hurts who offers significant upside in the passing game with up-and-over (or in his case push-on-through) upside in the rushing touchdown department. Hurts has one score on the ground with 13 attempts per game and 59.0 yards rushing, 4.5 per attempt early in the year and he has thrown for 7.2 yards per pass attempt with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Saquon Barkley has carried the ball 23 times per game over two outings, posting 4.4 yards per rush attempt with 102.0 yards per game and a pair of rushing touchdowns. The superstar running back hit paydirt on the ground twice in Week 1 and added a third score in the passing game for good measure, catching two of two targets for 23 yards and the touchdown. Barkley carried the ball 22 times for 95 yards and added 21 yards on 4-5 receiving in Week 2, giving him 26.5 potential touches per game, a massive total that is worth paying for at the volume-driven position. Barkley is a significant option on every slate, the Saints have been solid against the run and he will be challenged by a strong front but the running back has both the skill and the massive workload to post a good fantasy score despite the high price. Devonta Smith is a capable 1A to the absent AJ Brown, he will step into the big role once again this week. In Week 2, Smith caught seven passes for 78 yards and a touchdown, putting up 7.6 yards per target on 10 opportunities, a minor uptick from the eight targets he saw the week before. In Week 1 he also caught seven passes, racking up 84 yards but failing to score. Smith is a strong option who has seen opportunities in the red zone already this season. The receiver is an effective downfield option for a big play as well, he has a 9.4-yard ADOT with 43.26% of the team’s air yards share. Dallas Goedert has seen nine targets in two games, catching seven passes for a total of 69 yards and no score. Goedert will have any given slate upside as the starting tight end in this offense but his production will come primarily from touchdowns yielded by red zone opportunities. Jahan Dotson has seen just limited action with one target in each of the first two games and no production, the more interesting receiver in Week 2 was Britain Covey who caught six passes on six targets but put up just 23 yards on limited depth of target. Covey has game-breaking skills and picked up his opportunities on bubble screens and similar plays close to the line, he is a candidate to break a big play and he is playable for depth in stacks of Eagles that would otherwise be a bit thin. The Eagles are Stack 2/4 on DraftKings and Stack 2/9 on FanDuel, Jalen Hurts is QB2/5 on DraftKings and QB2/1 on the blue site, and Barkley is RB3/6 and 3/9 across sites.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total: 36 / PIT -2.5 (19.25 imp.)
Plays: 62.10% rush / 37.90% pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 5.0 ypa pass
Key Player: Justin Fields
Setting: at most one/at least one (at most will allow for “naked” Fields lineups)
Team Group: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren, Van Jefferson Jr., Najee Harris, Calvin Austin III (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: JK Dobbins, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer (Q), Hayden Hurst
Lineup Notes: Russell Wilson is questionable but unlikely to play, with Justin Fields almost certainly making another start. Fields has not been productive over two starts, he completed 70% of his passes but has thrown just 21.5 times per game for 136.5 yards, 6.3 per attempt, with just 6.2 intended air yards per attempt. The multi-talented quarterback has been limited on the ground as well, he carried the ball for 3.8 yards per attempt over the first two weeks and has looked mostly rusty. Fields gained 57 yards on 14 carries in Week 1 and 27 yards on eight carries in Week 2, he has thrown for one touchdown across the two outings. The quarterback is a limiting factor on weapons including George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, who rank as WR28/25 and WR29/30 and TE7/10 and 11/10 across sites. Pickens has piled up a 54.04% air yards share on 5.5 targets per game with a 13.4-yard ADOT as the most significant receiving option on the team, but his output has been limited with eight catches and 85 yards in Week 1 but only two for 29 yards in Week 2. Freiermuth caught four balls on four targets in each outing but his 4.3-yard ADOT has limited production and he has only seen one red zone target which he did not convert. The team has limited options down the depth chart with Van Jefferson Jr. and Calvin Austin III who have 2.5 and 2.0 targets per game with limited output over two weeks. The multi-headed running back attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren has plenty of talent but frustrating sometimes unpredictable utilization. The Steelers have, so far, deployed Harris as more of a lead back, he had 20 carries in 38 snaps and was targeted twice on 11 routes in Week 1, with 17 carries and two targets on eight routes in 28 Week 2 snaps. Warren played 19 snaps in Week 1, drawing just four potential and four actual touches while gaining 20 yards from scrimmage. He was more effective in Week 2 with 42 yards on nine carries and 19 yards on 2-2 receiving over 26 snaps, but his volume is clearly second to Harris despite being similarly explosive and talented, if not more so. Both running backs are loosely in play but we tend to lean toward skipping most timeshare situations. The Steelers Defense is highly appealing against a limited Chargers offense with a currently questionable quarterback, they rank as Defense 3/6 on DraftKings and Defense 3/15 on FanDuel as the most playable piece. On offense, the Steelers are only appealing in limited fashion as standalone skill players.
Seattle Seahawks
Game Total: 41 / SEA -5.0 (23.0 imp.)
Plays: 41.27% rush / 58.73% pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
Key Player: Geno Smith
Setting: at least one
Team Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant, Zach Charbonnet, Jake Bobo (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith
Lineup Notes: Kenneth Walker is doubtful, which will lead to lead opportunities for Zach Charbonnet once again in Week 3. The backup carried the ball 14 times for 38 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, adding another 31 yards on 5-5 receiving for 6.2 yards per target. Charbonnet scored in the passing game in Week 1, hauling in a touchdown on 2-3 receiving for 29 yards while also carrying the ball eight times for 12 yards. For the season he has a limited 2.3-yard per attempt average but there should be potential in low-cost volume. The focal-point for the Seahawks should be the passing game again this week, Geno Smith had a strong game against the Patriots last week and could post similarly good marks against a Dolphins team that has allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt so far this year. Smith is an accurate efficient passer with three strong weapons at his disposal. Last week he threw the ball 44 times and completed 33 of those attempts for 327 yards but just one touchdown. With similar volume in a 41-point game in which he is favored, Smith has the upside for a multi-touchdown passing performance this week. DK Metcalf ranks as WR11/2 on DraftKings and WR10/6 on FanDuel, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is WR22/5 and 21/18 across sites, and Tyler Lockett is WR31/28 and 31/37. Metcalf has a 39.81% air yards share on an 11.7-yard ADOT and nine targets per game, Smith-Njigba had a huge Week 2 and rocketed up to a 9.9-yard ADOT and 33.58% of the air yards, and Lockett slipped a bit in Week 2 but has a 10.8-yard ADOT on the season. Metcalf and Charbonnet have the team’s two receiving touchdowns this season. Tight end Noah Fant has upside with 3.5 targets per game but he needs to convert red zone opportunities to provide value, while Jake Bobo and Laviska Shenault Jr. have been very limited with just one target per game. The Seahawks are Stack 13/3 on DraftKings, they are a very good points-per-dollar play on the site but they do not rate as strongly on FanDuel as Stack 15/10. The team offers high quality combinations at a variety of prices and they are playable as individuals out of stacks.
San Francisco 49ers
Game Total: 44.5 / SF -7.5 (25.5 imp.)
Plays: 45.99% rush / 54.01% pass
oppDEF: 5.5 ypa rush / 9.3 ypa pass
Key Player: Brock Purdy
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Mason, Jauan Jennings, Chris Conley, Isaac Guerendo (large field), Jake Tonges, Kyle Juszczyk (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington, Colby Parkinson
Lineup Notes: Christian McCaffrey is out. Deebo Samuel is out. George Kittle is doubtful. Somehow the 49ers are still relevant. The team’s absurd depth has come to bear early in 2024 with injuries to their stars, they will rely on outstanding backup running back Jordan Mason to continue his strong start, Brandon Aiyuk to step into his true shoes as a real number one option with no true competition for touches in the passing game, and Jauan Jennings to shoulder a larger role in the passing game, a task for which he is ideal. Quarterback Brock Purdy will arguably have to do a bit more to help the 49ers win than he might otherwise with the team’s litany of stars, but Purdy is capable at his position. The quarterback ranks as just QB14/16 and 14/15 across sites but he had a 319-yard game in Week 2 on 28-36 passing and is capable of more. Purdy has completed 72% of his 32.5 attempts per game this season, posting a solid 8.5 yards per pass attempt but just one touchdown to one interception over two outings. Mason is very interesting at running back, we have previously highlighted the backup’s excellent per-touch numbers in limited action throughout his career and he has shown that exact burst and upside in the first two weeks of this season in a full role. Mason gained 5.1 yards per attempt on 24 carries per game over the first two contests, posting a massive 147-yard outing with a touchdown on 28 carries in Week 1, adding a catch for five more scrimmage yards, and following that performance with 20 carries for 100 yards and another score on the ground in Week 2. Mason has not been overly involved in the passing game but he does run routes, he ran 23 on 57 snaps in Week 1 and 25 on 54 snaps in Week 2. The running back remains surprisingly affordable despite the output, he is RB5/1 on DraftKings and RB1/3 on FanDuel this week. Aiyuk was limited in two outings, he drew five targets in each game but has been largely irrelevant with two catches for 28 yards in Week 1 and four for 43 in Week 2 but no scoring. That should change with significant action in Week 3, Aiyuk is too talented and too high-volume to fail for long, he is a strong buy in stacks of 49ers offense and he is playable as WR13/4 and 12/2 across sites in a standalone sense. Jennings caught five passes in Week 1 but only two last week, putting up a strong 11.2 yards per target on his 12.1-yard ADOT and 20.64% of the air yards. Chris Conley has seen limited action so far while fullback Kyle Juszczyk has been targeted in both games, catching two of three for 40 yards and coming up just short of a touchdown in Week 1 and then catching three of five targets for 19 yards last week. The fullback is an involved player who could be a sneaky option for an uptick in volume in the absence of tight end George Kittle, he makes a better receiving play than any of the backup tight ends on the roster. Those are Jake Tonges, Brayden Willis, and the likely lead option Eric Saubert, none of who are appealing. The 49ers have gone from deep to top-heavy but they are still a strong stack that lands as Stack 9/2 on both sites at strong points-per-dollar marks. Mason and Aiyuk are the priorities and both are playable in non-stacked lineups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Total: 39.5 / TB -6.5 (23.0 imp.)
Plays: 49.07% rush / 50.93% pass
oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Jalen McMillan, Cade Ottom, Trey Palmer (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Jaleel McLaughlin, Javonte Williams
Lineup Notes: After a highly successful Week 1, Baker Mayfield predictably came somewhat back down to Earth while still having a good Week 2. The Tampa Bay quarterback checks in this week as QB9/7 and 9/10 across sites and he brings strong weapons to the contest with an excellent receiving tandem and playable running backs. Mayfield threw the ball 30 times against Washington, one of the league’s most targetable pass defenses, he racked up four touchdowns and 289 yards in a slate-winning performance in stacks with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans has never played a season and failed to gain 1,000 yards, he is off to an OK start in 2024 with 103 yards over two games on his eight carries. The veteran scored two big touchdowns in Week 1 and he is a terrific downfield receiver with an 8.9-yard ADOT and 36.64% of the team’s air yards. Godwin picks up 38.01% of the air yards on a 6.9-yard ADOT with 7.5 catches and 100 yards per game over the team’s first two weeks. Godwin caught eight of eight passes for 83 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 and seven of eight passes for 117 yards and a score in Week 2. The team’s running back game is somewhat split between Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving, with expectations that the job will eventually belong to the latter. So far, White has managed to hold off Irving, he ran the ball 15 times for 31 yards in Week 1 but caught six passes on six targets for 75 yards. In Week 2, White was targeted just once and gained just 18 yards on 10 rushing attempts while seeing his snap count dip from 42 to 33. Irving, meanwhile, played 20 snaps in Week 1 and 17 in Week 2, carrying the ball nine times in his debut with a pair of catches on three targets in the first game. In Week 2 he drew seven carries and gained 22 yards in more limited action. Jalen McMillan has a touchdown on 2.5 targets per game and an exceptional 18.6-yard average depth of target for 31.85% of the air yards in limited volume. McMillan’s output amounts to one catch for a big play in each of the first two games. Tight end Cade Otton has been targeted twice in limited “safety-valve” shares while Trey Palmer has a 13-yard ADOT on one target. The Buccaneers are a strong stack up top with an obvious Mayfield+2 approach picking up most of the volume.
Tennessee Titans
Game Total: 37.5 / TEN -2.5 (19.5 imp.)
Plays: 44.63% rush / 55.37% pass
oppDEF: 5.1 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
Key Player: Will Levis
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears (Q), Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd, Chig Okonkwo, Treylon Burks (large field),
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Josh Jacobs
Lineup Notes: The Titans’ offense is so limited that we are actually skipping ahead to write about it before the three teams immediately above this entry, just so a multi-hour writing effort does not have to conclude with writing about the Titans. Tennessee ranks as Stack 19/18 on DraftKings and Stack 20/20 on FanDuel, with running back Tony Pollard looking like by far the most interesting option. Pollard has seen significant volume over the season’s first two weeks and, unlike his bust of an opportunity in 2023, he has delivered for the faithful. This week, Pollard may be a true standalone bellcow back, with second-string rusher Tyjae Spears questionable. Spears may suit up but he is likely to be at least a bit limited in his efforts. Even with the backup fully healthy, this has been Pollard’s show early, he has put up 4.4 yards per rush attempt with 1.8 yards before contact and 2.6 yards after on 16.5 carries per game and has added four catches on five targets per game. Pollard had 17 carries and caught five of six passes in Week 2, giving him 22 touches on 23 potential touches, he had 20 potential touches in Week 1, the volume is real and there is more than enough talent to go back to the well with the running back at RB13/8 on DraftKings and RB13/11 on FanDuel. Quarterback Will Levis has been less impressive over two weeks of the season, completing 63% of his attempts for 159.5 yards per game but just 5.3 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Levis has two veteran receiving talents with Calvin Ridley providing upside with 77 yards and a touchdown on 4-6 receiving last week. DeAndre Hopkins was limited in Week 1, playing just 15 snaps and picking up one target on nine routes. Hopkins played 26 snaps in Week 2, running 17 routes but getting targeted only twice and catching just one of those for nine yards. Tyler Boyd is another veteran receiver with multiple 1,000-yard seasons in his ledger. Boyd is the clear third option, much as he was in Cincinnati in previous seasons, but he is a capable receiver with an early-season 18.16% air yards share on a 9.5-yard average depth of target and five looks per game. Chig Okonkwo has been targeted 2.5 times per game with limited production but a touchdown in Week 1. The Titans are a low-quality option but their skill players may warrant standalone shares in other lineups at reasonable prices.
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