Another day, another big MLB promotion for a top prospect. In continuing a very fun early season theme, the Cubs are going to bring up first base masher Matt Mervis today and insert him immediately into an everyday role. Unfortunately, the Cubs are not a part of our robust 11-game main slate, they’re playing early in the afternoon today, but Mervis is absolutely one to watch for power in the coming months and he should be a priority pickup in any redraft leagues in which he remains on the waiver wire. Today’s MLB DFS slate is showing a higher concentration of power at the top of the board as opposed to the multi-team spreads that we have seen in recent days. There are a number of very good pitchers on the board who are holding things down for some capable squads, while other unexpected groups like the Rockies are ascending somewhat on matchup and opportunity.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/5/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The Twins look like a major play for home run upside and general run creation today, six of the hitters in the team’s projected lineup are above or around the magic number of 10 in our home run model. The Twins will be in Cleveland to face righty Peyton Battenfield, who has not been good over the three starts and one relief appearance he has made in the Show. Battenfield has given up a home run in three of those four outings and his high point for strikeouts is five in a six-inning start against the Tigers. Overall, the righty has a 5.88 xFIP with a 4.67 ERA and a 3.95% home run rate and he has allowed a massive amount of premium contact. While striking out only 18.4% and walking 14.5%, Battenfield has yielded a 17.6% barrel rate with a 51% hard-hit and an absurd 94.2 mph of average exit velocity, if anything he has been lucky that more home runs have not been hit against him. The Twins lineup remains relatively inexpensive on both sites, making them a very strong MLB DFS play tonight for multiple reasons. The projected lineup opens with lefty Max Kepler who has a 10.98 in the home run model and has been a well-regarded power hitter in his full seasons. Kepler made 446 plate appearances last year and hit only nine home runs with a .121 ISO in a down season, the year before he hit 19 homers in 490 plate appearances with a .202 ISO, but he has not returned to the heights of the 36 home runs that he hit in 596 opportunities with a .267 ISO in 2019. This year, Kepler has three on the board in just 87 plate appearances and he has a .178 ISO with a 10.5% barrel rate. The lefty may hit further down the lineup but he is an option at any point for $3,700/$2,700. Carlos Correa is slashing just .206/.289/.383 with a .178 ISO and an 87 WRC+, he has four home runs and an 11.15 in our home run model on the back of significant history. Correa has a 9.9% barrel rate with a 42% hard-hit rate so far this year, which is down from the 11.4% and 44.7% he had last year, but not in severe or concerning ways, Correa will be fine, take the discount. Byron Buxton is also not as expensive as he should be, but $5,300/$3,800 is not exactly cheap. Buxton has eight home runs this year with a massive .308 ISO, he is a superstar at the plate when he is healthy and he should be in most Twins stacks, he is second on the team with a 17.1% barrel rate so far this year, trailing Joey Gallo, who sits at 25.6% but has made only 76 plate appearances. Gallo is projected to hit seventh and he makes a strong option with his price on the downswing after his very hot start. Jorge Polanco is the top bat between Buxton and Gallo, he is projected to hit fourth and has a pair of home runs on the board in his 54 opportunities since returning from injury. Polanco is an excellent and underrated player for MLB DFS purposes, he has a very good bat, power, and speed on the basepaths, he has a 9.49 in our home run model. Trevor Larnach has a 12.7% barrel rate and 42.9% hard-hit rate this season with three home runs on the board, he hit five in 180 plate appearances last year and seven in 301 tries the year before but the contact profile suggests there is more power lurking for the lefty. Jose Miranda is slashing just .220/.281/.322 with a .102 ISO and three home runs in 128 plate appearances, he was much better at .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs and a 117 WRC+ in his 483 tries last year. Miranda is an option at just $3,100/$2,800, he has an 8.84 in our home run model and is ahead of Larnach’s 7.79. Gallo slots in seventh with an 11.49 in the home run model, ranking him second on the team behind Buxton. The slugger has seven home runs and costs $4,400/$3,400 but comes with the risk of three or four strikeouts, as usual. Christian Vazquez has zero home runs this year, and Michael A. Taylor has four. The duo rounds out the lineup at cheap prices and probably low ownership on both sites, they can both bend a slate with a big power day from the bottom of the lineup but they land at team-low marks of 4.19 and 5.11 respectively in the home run model.
The lousy Rockies are an uncomfortable name to see near the top of any list of options for MLB DFS purposes, the team is just not very good and sits at 12-20 on the young season. Colorado is in Queens to face right-handed veteran of the NPB and MLB rookie Kodai Senga, who has bounced around in quality over his first five starts. Senga has a 27.4% strikeout rate but he has walked 15.4% and has a 4.15 ERA with a 4.09 xFIP and a 1.58 WHIP. The righty is allowing too many chances via the free pass, not that the Rockies are a great team to capitalize on a pitcher’s flaws. Senga has also been a bit wonky for power so far, allowing a 40.3% hard-hit rate with a 4.27% home run rate, but that comes on just a 7.5% barrel rate and 7.9-degree average launch angle allowed, he is sitting at a 27.8% home run to flyball ratio. The league average is around 9.5%, if hitters manage to elevate the ball they have been able to take it out of the yard against Senga in the very early sample. Rockies bats are never a fun click, but there are some capable veteran hitters and the entire team comes cheap on both sites in a road game against a righty. Charlie Blackmon has three home runs and a .150 ISO this year, he hit 16 home runs with a .155 ISO last year and 13 the season before, he has not been much for power in recent seasons and does see some help in his home park with the home runs he manages to hit. At $5,000 on DraftKings, Blackmon actually seems a bit expensive for his output, he is easily affordable at $2,700 on FanDuel. Jurickson Profar should be replaced in the lineup, he is slashing .211/.290/.330 with a .119 ISO and has been 44% worse than average creating runs in his 125 plate appearances, he has a 7.91 in our home run model today. Kris Bryant and CJ Cron are a pair of sturdy right-handed bats in the heart of the lineup. Bryant is slashing .309/.382/.464 and has four home runs with a .155 ISO, Cron has a .231 ISO and six home runs, and he is slashing .250/.296/.481 but his WRC+ is at just 92, putting him eight percent below league average for run creation. Cron hit 29 home runs last year and 28 the season before, he is a reliable power hitter who could definitely get on the board tonight. Ryan McMahon is another good lefty power hitter, he has four home runs this year with a .187 ISO and an excellent contact profile. McMahon carries a 19% barrel rate and 49.2% hard-hit rate over his 120 plate appearances this year. He hit 20 home runs last year and 23 the season before and is carrying a 9.37 in our home run model tonight, trailing only Bryant at 10.05, Cron at 12.94, and Randal Grichuk at 9.93. Elias Diaz has a 44% hard-hit rate and he is slashing .337/.382/.500 with three home runs in 102 plate appearances this year, he is an underrated catcher option for $4,600/$2,700. Outfielder Randal Grichukhas made just 16 plate appearances since his return from the IL, he has no home runs in the tiny sample but he did hit 19 in 538 tries last year and 22 in 545 the season before and he has a 9.93 to land third on the team. Alan Trejo and Ezequiel Tovar are lower-end options for power and they have both been well below average for run creation this season, they are mix-and-match options at best.
