Outside of MLB DFS contest results, what a fun day of baseball Tuesday was! The youth movement that washed over the pitching slate came through in dynamite ways with terrific outings from several of the premium prospects who were on the board. The slate bent around the major output from the Orioles that included a pair of home runs from a hitter we have focused on since the start of the season in a nice return to form after two weeks of struggles. Baltimore is right back near the top of the premium stacks list again today in a matchup against an ancient soft-tosser of a starter. The Brewers are pulling in a massive run total at Coors Field after a low-scoring game last night, with a clearer weather situation and a smaller slate it seems likely that Milwaukee will be more highly owned tonight than in yesterday’s contests. Today’s board includes several interesting options on the mound, with the Athletics making a great target (this will be an ongoing theme all year) against another excellent starter from the Mariners. One of the league’s biggest stars will be on the mound for the Angels facing a tough Cardinals lineup in what could be a major inflection point for the MLB DFS slate, but he will be removed from the otherwise stout Los Angeles lineup in an ongoing annoying wrinkle that the sites need to figure out at some point. Spreading out options at the plate with a concentrated pitching focus seems like a good approach to a slate of this nature.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Summary – 5/3/23
Cleveland Guardians (-124/3.97) @ New York Yankees (+115/3.60)
Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has had an odd start to his season. The righty is a full-time starter in the New York rotation for the first time, he made three starts and threw 57.2 total innings for the big club last year, posting a 3.96 xFIP with a 3.12 ERA and a 23.7% strikeout rate. So far this season he has boosted strikeouts to a 26.9% rate over six starts, but he has given up a significant amount of premium contact, too many earned runs, and he has not been allowed to pitch reliably deep into too many games. Schmidt has a 6.84 ERA with a 3.99 xFIP that is quite a bit better under the surface. His 1.68 WHIP does not align with a 5.9% walk rate that is actually very good with this level of strikeouts, which would make batting average on balls in play the prime suspect, so far this season opposing hitters have managed a .394 mark on balls in play against Schmidt. The starter has allowed a whopping 53.8% hard-hit rate with a 15.4% barrel rate and 93.2 mph of average exit velocity on a 15.4-degree average launch angle, which is a recipe for home runs allowed. Schmidt has given up seven home runs to 119 hitters in 25 innings so far this season, allowing at least one in all but one start and already posting two outings with two home runs allowed. The righty’s last two starts were longer outings than his first four, he struck out eight Blue Jays while allowing three runs but getting charged with no earned runs in a 5.2-inning start two games ago and struck out another eight but allowed five runs on 10 hits in 5.0 innings in his last start against Texas. Schmidt has a plus-slider and an overall effective arsenal, but he has yet to figure things out in full at this level. With the amount of contact he allows, the Guardians bats are in play in Yankee Stadium once again while the pitcher lands in the lower third of the board as a cheap SP2 in limited shares for $5,900/$6,600. The Guardians lineup is projected to take its typical shape, when things are going right the team should be a sturdy blend of hit tools, on-base skills, speed, and at least mid-range power, but they have yet to get the mix right in 2023. The Guardians’ star Jose Ramirez has a 125 WRC+ in the third spot in the lineup, he has three home runs and five stolen bases in a slow start for counting stats, but he has been good overall and is somewhat cheap for him at $5,600/$3,600. Ramirez joins catcher Mike Zunino, who has made 78 plate appearances, as the only two players in the projected starting lineup who are currently creating runs at an above-average pace for 2023. Zunino lands at a 117 WRC+ in the tiny sample, he has a .200 ISO with a pair of home runs while slashing .215/.346/.415. Everyone else in the lineup has at best had a “but” attached to their production so far this season, with several key hitters qualifying for the “struggling” tag. Leadoff man Steven Kwan puts everything in play, he has just a 10.8% strikeout rate this season and was at 9.4% last year, but his triple-slash and run creation marks are down in the early part of this year. Kwan slashed .298/.373/.400 with a 124 WRC+ in 638 plate appearances last year but is at just .269/.360/.319 with a below-average 94 WRC+ in 139 tries this season. Kwan’s walk rate is up from 9.7% to 12.9% which has helped sustain a good on-base percentage, masking the slow performance with the bat, the leadoff hitter is still in play as a correlated scoring piece, he just needs a few more base hits a week to start dropping and his numbers will climb quickly. Amed Rosario is projected to hit in his typical second spot, the shortstop is slashing just .229/.265/.324 with a .095 ISO and just a 61 WRC+ over 113 opportunities. Rosario hit 11 home runs and stole 18 bases as a reliable cheap option last season while posting a 103 WRC+, he costs just $4,300/$2,800 on tonight’s slate and could be a good buy if stacking Guardians in Yankee Stadium. Ramirez slots in third and should not be skipped in many Guardians stacks, he is the key hitter and lone star in this lineup. Josh Naylor is slashing just .215/.269/.344 with a 65 WRC+ but he has a nine percent barrel rate and 44.9% hard-hit for the season and did hit 20 home runs in 498 opportunities last year. Naylor is a decent left-handed power bat against a pitcher who has allowed far too much premium contact in a game in which he can target the short porch in right field, this is a good home run spot for Naylor. Josh Bell can also get his plate appearances on the left side, the switch-hitter has three home runs but is slashing a weak .208/.325/.377 as another struggling hitter in this lineup. Bell’s stats will climb as the season rolls on, but he needs to improve on a 37% hard-hit rate that was only 40.5% last year when he hit 17 home runs in 647 plate appearances. The Guardians need Bell to be the slugger who hit 27 home runs in 568 opportunities in 2021. Andres Gimenez has a pair of home runs and six stolen bases but has been eight percent below the league average for run creation over 120 plate appearances. Gimenez has just a 1.2% barrel rate and a 24.1% hard-hit percentage, he has been very much a slap-hitting infielder so far this year. The second baseman hit 17 home runs with a .169 ISO last year and he had a 37.6% hard-hit rate which is not good but is at least around the league average, at $4,500/$3,000 the memory of that production is enough to keep the infielder in Guardians stacks. Zunino slots in seventh, hitting ahead of Will Brennan and Myles Straw who are not major options at the plate for MLB DFS.
Cleveland starter Shane Bieber costs $9,500/$9,600 as a bit of an enigma on this slate. Bieber has made six starts and thrown 37.2 innings in 2023 with middling results. The former ace has a good 3.11 ERA but his xFIP jumps by a run to 4.29, and he is inducing just a 9.7% swinging-strike rate with a 27.8% CSW% and a 17.1% strikeout rate. Those marks are way down from his 2022 results, Bieber had a 25% strikeout rate with a 13.8% swinging-strike rate in 200 innings last year after returning from his 2021 injury. That was already a downturn from his pre-injury production, but Bieber would probably sign for a return to 2022 levels right now. At best, the righty has reliably given MLB DFS gamers depth this season. Bieber has pitched into the sixth inning at least in each of his six starts, he ranks ninth in baseball in innings pitched but the production has simply not been enough to boost him to slate-winning scores at his prices. Bieber has struck out only four hitters in each of his last four starts and he has given up either two or three earned runs in each outing. There have been no real issues with power, his two home runs allowed amount to just a 1.32% home run rate, though hitters are squaring up his offerings with a 48.2% hard-hit rate and 93 mph of average exit velocity, they are just keeping the ball down at a 7.9-degree average launch angle. Bieber projects in the middle of the board, the Yankees’ current form can boost any starter’s production and there should be plenty of strikeouts available, but it is difficult to forecast where the starter will come down tonight with his current-year struggles in a Yankee Stadium game. The New York lineup should include Anthony Volpe in the leadoff role again after a big Tuesday night. Volpe is officially above average for run creation at a 103 WRC+ and now has three home runs and 10 stolen bases while remaining affordable at $4,400/$2,800. Volpe hits ahead of Gleyber Torres, who is slashing .245/.350/.422 with a 119 WRC+ in 120 plate appearances but he has not struck the ball overly well this season. Torres does have a 9.2% barrel rate that is serviceable, but his 29.9% hard-hit rate is weak and his .176 ISO is substandard. Anthony Rizzo is the best bat in the middle of this version of the lineup. The left-handed first baseman has five home runs this season with a .282/.370/.464 triple-slash and a 137 WRC+. Rizzo has a 10.6% barrel rate and a 44.7% hard-hit for the year, he is always a quality click at first base but the correlated scoring for the Yankees lineup is not likely to be strong tonight. DJ LeMahieu and Harrison Bader are the last two semi-appealing hitters in the Yankees lineup tonight. LeMahieu has three home runs and a 114 WRC+ in 107 plate appearances and he has hit the ball hard with a 56.9% hard-hit rate for the season. Bader came back last night after a Spring Training injury, he is a mid-range power and speed hitter in what is essentially the bottom of the order. Willie Calhoun hit a low-owned home run last night, he is still not good. Oswaldo Cabrera is a utility man and not much more, he is slashing .198/.229/.275 with a 34 WRC+ in 97 plate appearances. Kyle Higashioka is the interesting hitter at the end of the lineup if he plays tonight. The catcher hit 10 home runs last year with a 48.1% hard-hit rate and a 9.8% barrel rate, he has a pair of homers this year in 43 plate appearances and his contact profile in the tiny sample is very strong. Aaron Hicks slots into the projected lineup but the Yankees may go with Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the outfield or another option, Hicks is a non-entity for MLB DFS.
Play: Guardians bats/stacks, mid-level interest in Bieber if he projects as low-owned around the industry. Schmidt value dart throws as an SP are not a mistake.
Update Notes: The Guardians lineup is short one Zunino, with Cam Gallagher stepping in behind the plate and hitting ninth. The Yankees lineup runs Volpe-Torres-Rizzo-LeMahieu-Calhoun-Bader-Jake Bauers-Isiah Kiner-Falefa-Higashioka. This is probably better than the Cabrera-Hicks version, but Bauers is not much at the plate and IKF is less than nothing with a well-below-average WRC+ for the last two seasons. Higashioka is still the best bat at the bottom of the Yankees lineup.
Chicago Cubs (-187/4.98) @ Washington Nationals (+171/3.63)
The Cubs land at the top of the Power Index for Wednesday night in their favorable matchup against 26-year-old righty Jake Irvin, who will be making his debut. Ranking as the 14th-best prospect in the Nationals’ system is not much, but it is something. Irvin is not a highly regarded prospect overall, he has pitched in the Washington system since 2018 after being picked in the fourth round. Irvin threw 103.1 innings across high-A and AA last year, posting a 24.6% strikeout rate with a 1.50 ERA and 3.86 xFIP at high-A and a 25.5% rate with a 4.79 ERA and 4.17 xFIP in AA. In 128.1 innings in A ball in 2019, Irvin had a 3.79 ERA and a 3.91 xFIP with a 21.1% strikeout rate, and over five starts in AAA in 2023, Irvin has a 5.64 ERA and 5.30 xFIP with a 20.4% strikeout rate. This is a pitcher who should be targeted with bats at the Major League level, he is not on the FanDuel slate and would not be an option if he is added. On DraftKings, Irvin costs just $4,000, but make no mistake this is not the matchup we had last night with Bryce Miller’s $4,000 debut against the lousy Athletics, even at the value price an Irvin play is extremely thin. The Cubs lineup is projected in its typical form, the club disappointed in their opportunity against Trevor Williams last night, but going back to the well for power against Irvin looks like a strong option on Wednesday and they are not overly expensive around the industry. Leadoff man Nico Hoerner is the most expensive Cubs hitter on DraftKings at $5,300, he lands third in salary at $3,700 on the FanDuel slate. Hoerner is not a big power hitter but he is a good correlated scoring option to remember in Chicago stacks. The second baseman does have two home runs in his 133 plate appearances this season, but his 2.7% barrel rate matches the 2.6% he posted last year in hitting 10 home runs over 517 opportunities. Hoerner’s talent comes through in his triple-slash at .310/.348/.411 with 10 stolen bases while creating runs eight percent better than average. As a quick aside, the volatility of early season stats can still be seen, the original version of this paragraph accidentally used yesterday’s stat line for Hoerner, in one game his WRC+ went from 116 to 108, halving the percentage above average for run creation he has provided for the season. It is still extremely early and all current-year performances should be viewed that way. The power bats start in the second spot in the lineup for Chicago and run through at least the sixth. Dansby Swanson is slashing .306/.419/.407 and has created runs 34% better than average this season. In 696 plate appearances last year, Swanson hit 25 home runs, stole 18 bases, and had a 116 WRC+ while barreling the ball at a 10.8% clip with a 46.1% hard-hit rate and a .170 ISO. Swanson is an excellent shortstop who is too cheap at $4,800/$3,100, he has just two home runs and a .102 ISO so far this year, but everything else about his game has been intact and his barrel rate is sitting at 11.3%, the power will come. Ian Happ has an 11.7% barrel rate and a 39% hard-hit while walking 16.3% of the time and getting on base at a .407 clip. Happ has hit three home runs and stolen four bases while creating runs 41% better than average. Happ costs just $4,500/$3,000, the switch-hitting outfielder is a better player than that and should be popular for the price around the industry in this matchup. Cody Bellinger slots into the cleanup spot in the projected lineup, he has seven home runs on the season with a .293 ISO and a 158 WRC+ and has been excellent at limiting his strikeouts, which puts him back in the form that won an MVP in 2019 and was covered in depth in yesterday’s slate overview. Bellinger is a major threat in this lineup but still costs just $4,300 on DraftKings while landing at $4,000 on the blue site, he has a 9.80 in the home run model today, ranking him fourth overall. Bellinger falls between Swanson’s 9.97 and Happ’s 9.65 in the home run model, while both Seiya Suzuki and Patrick Wisdom land further ahead at 11.27 and 11.47 respectively. Suzuki has a 51% hard-hit rate but just a 4.1% barrel rate in 74 plate appearances with one home run this year. His WRC+ is slightly below average in the short-term at 99 but he is a very capable bat in the heart of the order for just $4,600/$2,800, the FanDuel price is too cheap. Wisdom has eligibility at third base and in the outfield on both sites with a $4,500/$3,800 price tag. Wisdom has 11 home runs in his 110 plate appearances with a 150 WRC+ and a massive .394 ISO. Wisdom makes terrific contact, he has a 21.3% barrel rate with a 59% hard-hit so far this year, last year he was at a 14.2% barrel rate with a 46% mark for hard hits, which he translated into 25 home runs in 534 plate appearances. Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini are grizzled veterans who can still power one out from time to time, presumably while smoking a Winston and sipping a Budweiser. Hosmer is cheap at $2,200/$2,500 with a pair of home runs in 81 plate appearances. He has a .118 ISO this year and posted a .113 with eight homers in 419 plate appearances last season. Mancini hit 18 home runs in 587 plate appearances last year and 21 in 616 the season before, he has three on the board this year with a triple-slash that is rounding into form at .258/.307/.376, though his ISO is just .118 and he has an 87 WRC+ to this point. The final projected spot goes to Miguel Amaya who will be making his MLB debut. Amaya is a 24-year-old AA catcher who was called up to cover for Yan Gomes’ injury. Amaya has been mashing at AA so far this season, he has four home runs with a .386 ISO in just 56 plate appearances while slashing .273/.411/.659 in his return from first Tommy John Surgery then an ankle injury that knocked him out of action for much of 2021 and 2022.
As promised, if one of the Nationals got back above average by WRC+ we would give them a better look in today’s article, congratulations Victor Robles, you are the only player in the projected Washington lineup who has created runs ahead of the league average this year. Over 100 plate appearances, mostly hitting ninth, the outfielder has been six percent better than average for run creation, though he has no home runs or power to speak of with just a .071 ISO. Robles is slashing .286/.375/.357 and he has stolen six bases, his on-base skill has kept him relevant as a wraparound play to the top of the lineup, but it is not a good top end. Everyone else in the lineup has been 10% below average or worse for run creation in 2023, which seems like good news for Cubs starter Marcus Stroman. The poster boy for the “better real life than DFS pitcher” phrase, Stroman has a 3.41 xFIP and a 2.29 ERA with a 23.7% strikeout rate in 35.1 innings this year, following up a 2022 campaign of 25 starts and 138.2 innings in which he put up a 3.50 ERA and nearly matching 3.49 xFIP with a 20.9% strikeout rate. Stroman is very good at limiting opposing power, he keeps the ball down and is difficult to hit home runs against. In 2021, Stroman had a 2.33% home run rate with a 6.3-degree average launch angle allowed, in 2022 it was a 2.81% rate on a seven-degree launch angle, and so far this year he has limited hitters to just a 1.2-degree average launch angle and a 2.2% barrel rate. Stroman has been sharp to start his season, he is rarely bad and rarely gets blown up and he should have a good opportunity for a win and a deep start with a QS bonus where it is relevant. This is a potentially strong spot for a Stroman play, while it is never comfortable to roster the righty, the Nationals offer little in the way of resistance. Stroman comes at a premium on the blue site at $10,500, which may keep some public ownership at bay. On DraftKings, he should be a popular pitching target at just $9,100. The Nationals project for very little upside. Between the team’s general lack of ability and extremely limited run creation and on-base skills as well as Stroman’s reliable ability to keep the ball in the park and on the ground, the 3.63-run implied team total makes sense and may even be a half-run high. Alex Call is projected in the leadoff spot. Call is slashing .239/.345/.337 with a .098 ISO and a 91 WRC+ this year in 110 plate appearances. In 131 last year he slashed .237/.336/.412 with a 113 WRC+ and he hit five home runs with a .175 ISO while creating runs 13% better than average. That midrange production has been nowhere to be seen this season and Call’s limited contact profile is probably why. Luis Garcia the infielder hits second in the projected lineup, he is slashing .236/.271/.360 with a 67 WRC+ this year, he was seven percent below average for run creation in 377 plate appearances last year, with seven home runs and a .275/.295/.408 triple-slash, maybe he should try pitching. Keibert Ruiz is a good young catcher who plays almost every day, but he is not a standout for MLB DFS purposes. Ruiz has a pair of home runs in 107 plate appearances while slashing .258/.327/.361 with just a .103 ISO while creating runs 10% below average. Joey Meneses has one home run and a 73 WRC+ in 125 plate appearances this year. In 240 last year he hit 13 home runs and had a 156 WRC+ so it is fair to say he is behind the pace of expectations. Meneses has a 48.9% hard-hit rate that is in line with last year’s production if one is hunting for a good reason to include him in a lineup at $3,200/$2,700. There are probably better ways to spend first base shares. Jeimer Candelario and Dominic Smith have five combined home runs, Candelario has four of them and a .162 ISO. Smith is scuffling at just .255/.327/.304 with a .049 ISO and a 78 WRC+ in 113 plate appearances. Lane Thomas and CJ Abrams round out the lineup ahead of Robles. Thomas had a 96 WRC+ in 548 plate appearances last year, hitting 17 home runs with a .163 ISO, this year he has a 78 WRC+ and a .069 ISO with one home run. Smith and Thomas have eerily similar and equally poor stat lines so far this year. This team is entirely skippable if one is inclined to play that way, they are worth only minor mix-and-match shares at best.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks aggressively, Marcus Stroman
Update Notes: the terrible Washington lineup is as expected.
Toronto Blue Jays (-133/5.12) @ Boston Red Sox (+122/4.49)
The division rivalry game between the Blue Jays and Red Sox from Fenway Park tonight presents interesting options on four sides. Both pitchers in the game are viable, despite facing tough competition in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Red Sox are rolling with Nick Pivetta who lands with a 25.5% strikeout rate over his 24.2 innings and five starts in 2023. For his career, Pivetta has been roughly a league-average pitcher with upside for a bit more when it comes to strikeouts from time to time. The righty had a 4.56 ERA and 4.26 xFIP with a 22.6% strikeout rate over 33 starts and 179.2 innings last year and a 4.53 ERA with a 4.28 xFIP and a 26.5% strikeout rate in 30 starts and 155 innings in 2021. This season’s early returns have him at a 5.11 ERA with a 4.61 xFIP with his premium contact numbers struggling to find their form. All of Pivetta’s swinging strikes, walk rate, WHIP, and other such numbers are in line with previous performances but the small sample has seen his hard hits jump from an already bad 45.4% rate with a nine percent barrel rate and 90.7 mph of average exit velocity last year to a 53.6% hard-hit rate with 92.9 mph of average exit velocity and a massive 14.5% barrel rate so far. That amounts to just a few mistake pitches in an extremely small largely irrelevant sample, of course, but it is part of why Pivetta costs just $7,500/$7,900 in this outing. The righty has a modicum of upside, though it is not coming through in projections that are strongly favoring Blue Jays bats in the matchup. If Pivetta is unable to avoid the fat part of the Blue Jays’ fantastic power bats, his strikeout rate is unlikely to matter very much. The top four hitters in the Toronto lineup have an average salary of $5,800 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel, with George Springer as the least expensive member of the group on both sites. Springer costs just $2,800 on FanDuel, which is a significant discount for a star player. The outfielder is slashing .216/.272/.302 with a .086 ISO and just a 62 WRC+ so far this year, he has slipped in every way from his previous outstanding performances, but for the cost, he is well worth including on the blue site. Springer should be in lineups on DraftKings as well, but the $5,200 asking price becomes a more difficult proposition on that site, as it demands the sacrifice of one of the other top hitters in full stacks, and they have all performed better than Springer in the short sample. Bo Bichette costs $6,000/$4,000 and should never slip below those thresholds. The shortstop is slashing .339/.382/.543 with seven home runs this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is at $6,200/$3,900, FanDuel needs to add at least $100 to his salary tomorrow and never let him slip below that line either. Guerrero is slashing .311/.390/.487 with five home runs and a pair of stolen bases, though his power has dipped early this year with just a .176 ISO so far. The first base star still has a 13.5% barrel rate and a 54.8% hard-hit rate, both of which are actually higher than last year, he’ll be fine. Matt Chapman has made up for any power outages elsewhere in the lineup with a .280 ISO and a 209 WRC+ so far this season. The third baseman still has five home runs, he has not powered the ball over the wall but he has fueled the Toronto offense since Opening Day. Chapman is slashing .374/.455/.654 and had barreled the ball in 30.4% of his batted-ball events. Daulton Varsho is the first discounted bat in the lineup on DraftKings at $4,700/$2,700. The left-handed outfielder is slashing just .198/.295/.330 with three home runs and a .132 ISO on just a 6.4% barrel rate which is down from his 10.2% in 2022. Varsho hit 27 home runs last year with a .207 ISO, but that was a breakout for the now 26-year-old, there is plenty of time for a turnaround, his 122 plate appearances this season are not decisive, but it is entirely possible that Toronto bought high in this situation. Whit Merrifield has just a 2.8% barrel rate and a 19.7% hard-hit percentage this year but he is slashing .301/.362/.398 with a 115 WRC+ in his 94 opportunities. Merrifield is a correlated scoring and speed player, he has stolen four bases and can be included alongside other options in the Blue Jays lineup but he is not much of an individual scorer at his position, even at price. Alejandro Kirk has two home runs and a 119 WRC+ over 84 plate appearances, he is a cheap catcher play, Brandon Belt has struggled badly over 68 plate appearances but the lefty can absolutely hit one out of Fenway in this situation, and Kevin Keiermaier is a good defensive outfielder.
Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah has had two lousy outings and four largely good starts so far this season. Manoah coughed up five earned runs in just 3.1 innings against the Cardinals in his first start and he allowed seven runs on nine hits while striking out five in a 4.2-inning start against the Rays in his fourth start. In every other outing, Manoah has allowed three runs or fewer while chasing win and quality start bonuses. The righty struck out seven Mariners while allowing a pair of earned runs in five innings in his last start, and he struck out five Yankees in seven innings of two-hit shutout ball the start before but his numbers for the season are bent by the bad outings. This could play in favor of sharp gamers who can see Manoah’s upside at $7,200/$8,400, which is a good discount for a pitcher who has shown better quality over time. Manoah struck out 27.7% in 111.2 innings and 20 starts in 2021 but dropped to 22.9% over 196.2 in 31 outings last year. This season he has struck out just 19.3% while walking an unsustainable 13.8% overall, pitching to a 4.88 ERA and a 5.66 xFIP. Manoah has also allowed a fair amount of contact this season, with a 41.5% hard-hit rate and a 10.6% barrel rate allowed. The righty is projected around the middle of the board, he is worth a few darts in MLB DFS tournaments at worst and could be leaned on for SP2 value on the DraftKings slate somewhat more aggressively. The Red Sox lineup has appeal as well, their top end is very good and they have seen some activity from the bottom third of the lineup lately as well. Alex Verdugo is a good leadoff hitter with individual upside. The outfielder has a .206 ISO with five home runs in his 139 plate appearances and he has created runs 48% better than average so far this year. Verdugo slashed .280/.328/.405 last year with 11 home runs and just a .125 ISO, the uptick is encouraging and the hitter costs just $4,700/$3,600. Masataka Yoshida slots in with five home runs and two stolen bases and has created runs 48% better than average as well. He has made 110 plate appearances and really got going over the past two weeks after a slow start to his MLB career. Yoshida is up to a .298/.391/.511 triple-slash and he has a stout 9.5% barrel rate with a 47.6% hard-hit percentage, he is looking more like a star every day. Justin Turner used to look like a star, now he is more the solid capable veteran type. The aging infielder has made 136 plate appearances this season, he has two home runs and a 105 WRC+ with a .360 on-base percentage and he is extremely reliable at putting the ball in play. Turner has a 12.5% strikeout rate so far this season and the top three hitters in the Boston lineup average just an 11.6% strikeout rate this season, which could present a significant challenge to Manoah’s quality. Third base star Rafael Devers hits cleanup in the projected lineup, he has 10 home runs and a .311 ISO this season and is worth his $5,900/$4,100 salary. Devers’ 14.7% barrel rate is up several percentage points from where it was in his outstanding 2022, he could have a huge year with the hitters ahead of him circling the bases with regularity. Jarren Duran slots in fifth for $3,500 on both sites. The outfielder has made 58 plate appearances and he has been very productive so far in 2023. Duran has two home runs and two stolen bases with a 15% barrel rate and 52.5% hard-hit percentage in the small sample. Duran was not that hitter in his 223 plate appearances last year or the 112 the season before, but the young outfielder is a decently well-regarded prospect who could be finding himself at this level. While he is unlikely to sustain a .283 ISO and 192 WRC+ all season, he is an interesting click at a low salary in stacks of Boston bats. Enrique Hernandez and Triston Casas have not been very good this season, they have three home runs each and are at 86 and 59 WRC+ marks. Emmanuel Valdez has a home run and a stolen base with a .250 ISO and 147 WRC+ in his first 24 plate appearances, he costs just $2,400/$2,000 at second base on DraftKings and third base on FanDuel, it does not seem wise to roster him instead of Devers on the blue site but he can be played as a cheap option via the utility position, he has more straight line viability at second base across town. Connor Wong is a better bat at the catcher position than Reese McGuire, Wong is slashing .290/.353/.516 with a .226 ISO and three home runs in 69 plate appearances, but the left-handed McGuire may get the start in this one.
Play: four corners all in moderate doses decreasing in order: Blue Jays bats, Red Sox bats, Alek Manoah, Nick Pivetta
Update Notes: The Red Sox have Valdez-Hernandez-Wong making up the bottom third, Wong is a good bat at the catcher position as mentioned above, he is a sneaky play for quality at just $2,300 on both sites, particularly where catchers matter more.
Minnesota Twins (+113/3.87) @ Chicago White Sox (-122/4.22)
White Sox righty Dylan Cease has a top-five projection in a good matchup against the Twins tonight. Cease is a very good strikeout pitcher who has had back-to-back bumpy outings that may be souring the public’s ownership desires, even though he is facing a free-swinging bunch that has a 24.2% strikeout rate across the projected starting lineup. Cease has made six starts and thrown 30.1 innings with a 26.2% strikeout rate, though that is down from the 30.4% he had in 184 innings last year and the 31.9% he posted in 165.2 innings the year before. The righty has allowed a bit of premium contact along with the dip in strikeouts early in 2023, opposing hitters have an 8.2% barrel rate with a 50.6% hard-hit percentage this season, generating 90.5 mph of average exit velocity. Last year, Cease held hitters to merely 31.2% hard hits and 86.8 mph of average exit velocity in an outstanding season. The righty had a 3.50 xFIP with a 2.20 ERA over his 32 starts, this year he is at a 4.15 ERA and a 4.22 xFIP. Cease’s last two starts came against the outrageously good Rays, he lasted just four innings in each, giving up three earned runs while striking out five and walking just one hitter two games ago, then striking out only three while walking two and allowing six earned runs on nine hits in the second attempt. The Twins are notably not the Rays, but they do have several very good bats in the lineup, making this a bit of a both-sided situation. Cease is in play at $10,300/$8,900, the DraftKings price should render him fairly low-owned and he looks like an excellent value on the blue site despite any popularity that may be generated by the discount. Playable Twins bats include Byron Buxton who is a star at $5,500/$3,700 and is still too cheap on both sites. Buxton is slashing .257/.327/.545 with a .287 ISO and seven home runs in his 113 plate appearances this season, he is a strong play from anywhere in this lineup tonight. Buxton is carrying a 10.39 as the only Twins hitter over the “magic number” in our home run model tonight. Jorge Polanco hit 16 home runs last year while dealing with knee pain and missing several months. He hit 33 home runs and stole 11 bases in 2021 in a fully healthy 644 plate appearances. The second baseman costs $4,900/$3,300 and is slashing .310/.326/.548 with a .238 ISO and a pair of home runs since returning to the lineup after missing the first couple of weeks of the season. Polanco has a 16.7 barrel rate and a 46.7% hard-hit percentage in the small sample so far and seems to have arrived in mid-season form. Carlos Correa remains discounted at just $4,700/$2,900 because he is slashing just .206/.291/.361 with a WRC+ 16% below league average for the season. Correa can be placed in lineups on a continual basis when going to Twins, just ride the discount until the performance turns around, unless he is truly hurt Correa will produce. Trevor Larnach has three home runs with a .144 ISO and a 111 WRC+ in his 117 plate appearance. The lefty slugger is cheap in the cleanup role at just $3,500/$2,900, he has a 12.7% barrel rate this year and is a strong three-true-outcomes hitter who has a 30.8% strikeout rate and a 15.4% walk rate this year. Larnach is like a light version of teammate Joey Gallo right now. Gallo is projected to hit seventh in the lineup and is our preferred hitter between the two, but Larnach is the better overall option given the higher position in this batting order. Max Kepler slots in behind Jose Miranda in between those two hitters, Miranda and Kepler each have three home runs this season, but Kepler’s came in just 76 plate appearances with a .200 ISO and a 44.2% hard-hit rate. Miranda has struggled more for power and quality, he has just a .108 ISO and an 82 WRC+. Gallo has mashed with a 28.6% barrel rate and 71.4% hard-hit rate, he has seven home runs and is slashing .220/.333/.661 with a .441 ISO and a 169 WRC+. He has first base eligibility on the FanDuel slate to go with his outfield positioning and he is a good buy at $4,600/$3,400 who will probably still not be as popular as he should be in this matchup. Gallo could easily strike out three or four times, but he could also pop for two home run upside on any given slate. Christian Vazquez and Michael A. Taylor are capable mix-and-match bats in the final two slots in the projected batting order.
The highly disappointing underperforming White Sox land third on the board in a matchup against righty Louie Varland, who has made one start this season and had five outings last year at the Major League level. Varland gave up a 41% hard-hit rate with 88.7 mph of average exit velocity and a 3.77% home run rate while pitching to a 4.13 xFIP and a 3.81 ERA with a 19.8% strikeout rate last year. In his first start this year, Varland struck out eight Yankees but allowed three earned runs on three solo home runs to 25 total hitters, he had a 3.11% home run rate in 105 AA innings in 2022. Varland is a bigtime strikeout arm who was regularly above a 30% strikeout rate at each stop in the minors, his arsenal is fairly well regarded by Stuff+ metrics, so this is potentially another spot in which a team is flashing power against a pitcher who may poke numerous holes in the lineup even if he gives up a bit of power. The White Sox have been atrocious at sequencing and creating runs to this point in the season, but they are flashing power that is at least interesting relative to where the other teams on this slate land on the board. With Tim Anderson back in the fold, the engine might finally get turned over for Chicago’s offense. The dynamic leadoff man is a catalyst for everything the White Sox do, he slashed .301/.339/.395 with 13 stolen bases and a 110 WRC+ last year in 351 plate appearances and .309/.338/.469 with 17 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 120 WRC+ in 2021. Anderson is an excellent threat for speed and mid-range power and his hit tool and on-base acumen keep him involved as a productive piece of Chicago stacks. Andrew Benintendi has just a 3.6% barrel rate and a 23.8% hard-hit percentage for the season and is slashing .277/.330/.327 with just a .050 ISO and an 85 WRC+. The outfielder has been a far more productive hitter in his career, while he has never hit for a lot of power he did manage 17 home runs in 538 opportunities in 2021 before cratering to just five but still slashing .304/.373/.399 with a 122 WRC+ and a 38.5% hard-hit rate in 521 plate appearances last year. Benintendi costs just $3,400/$2,700, he can be rostered as a correlated scoring piece, but he and Anderson are currently duplicate skillsets atop the lineup, with Anderson being the better option between the two. Andrew Vaughn has a 10.8% barrel rate and a 44.6% hard-hit this season, following up a productive 2022 that saw him post a 7.9% barrel rate with a 48.4% hard-hit percentage over 555 plate appearances. Vaugh hit 17 home runs with a .159 ISO and a 113 WRC+ over that sample, joining everyone in this lineup with the exception of Yasmani Grandal in being above average by WRC+ last season. Vaughn is very cheap on DraftKings at just $2,800, which seems like a mistake, he costs $3,200 on the FanDuel slate and has been a productive enough hitter so far in 2023. He has three home runs with a .174 ISO and a 126 WRC+ over 127 plate appearances. Between the contact profile and the steady production, Vaughn looks like a good buy for the price, he also has a 9.18 in our home run model, placing him second on the team. Eloy Jimenez is the team leader with an 11.44 but he has scuffled to this point in the season. Jimenez is priced at only $3.100/$2,800, he has there home runs and a .155 ISO in 92 plate appearances this year and is still finding his form after missing so much time the past few seasons and already this year. The slugger has an encouraging 13.6% barrel rate and a 47.5% hard-hit for the year. Luis Robert Jr. costs $4,600/$2,800 as another cheap hitter, he is now down to .216/.263/.405 with a .189 ISO and those same five home runs he had two weeks ago. Robert has made 119 plate appearances and has just an 80 WRC+, he has not been great this season despite placing second on the team in home runs in April. Robert is cheap in the heart of the lineup, he should not be skipped but he may not be the star that Chicago was hoping for in the long run. Gavin Sheets and Grandal are slated to hit sixth and seventh, Sheets has made 57 plate appearances with two home runs and a 112 WRC+ so far this season, Grandal has bounced back with three home runs and a .200 ISO while creating runs 15% better than average this season. Jake Burger has been surprisingly good so far this year with seven home runs in his 75 plate appearances. He is slashing .231/.320/.631 with a .400 ISO and a 155 WRC+. Burger’s excellent 25.6% barrel rate and 48.8% hard-hit percentage are encouraging but it is still difficult to put extended faith in the player, he has a serviceable 6.95 in our home run model today. Elvis Andrus rounds out the lineup, he has zero home runs and a .038 ISO while slashing .200/.267/.238 over 117 plate appearances, and people wonder why this has been a bad team in 2023. Andrus’ fraudulent career as a producer of MLB DFS points should come to an end sooner than later, for now, this is basically an eight-man lineup.
Play: White Sox bats/stacks, Dylan Cease, Twins bats in smaller doses, value Varland darts at $6,000 on DraftKings are fine given the strikeout upside.
Update Notes: Buxton is hitting cleanup with Kepler in the leadoff role, Polanco and Correa hit second and third with Larnach and Gallo rises to the sixth spot. Nick Gordon is a viable correlated scoring and speed option hitting seventh, Willi Castro slots in eighth at $2,200/$2,000 with multi-position eligibility, and Ryan Jeffers can drive the ball as a cheap low-owned catcher. Jeffers hit 14 home runs in 293 plate appearances in 2021, he had seven in 236 opportunities last year and has one in 42 tries this season. The White Sox lineup is as expected.
Baltimore Orioles (-159/5.07) @ Kansas City Royals (+146/4.03)
The Orioles had a big outburst for runs and last night and the stars are well-aligned for a repeat performance in Kansas City with Zack Greinke on the mound tonight. Greinke is basically a non-factor for MLB DFS purposes, even at $5,600/$6,300 the veteran has very little upside for strikeouts and he has been a target for power early this season. Greinke has not been good for several years, he has gotten by on experience and guile but that has not been enough in early returns in 2023. The righty has a 6.10 ERA but he is at least sporting a much better 4.37 xFIP. Despite the better number under the surface, there is nothing to see here, Greinke has allowed a 9.3% barrel rate and a 43% hard-hit rate with 91.2 mph of average exit velocity and a 5.19% home run rate so far this year while striking out 16.3% and inducing just an 8.1% swinging-strike rate with a 25.4% CSW%. Orioles bats are going to be very popular tonight, but they are worthwhile at very affordable prices up and down the projected lineup. Cedric Mullins is slated to lead off as the most expensive hitter on this team on DraftKings and the second-highest-priced bat behind Jorge Mateo on FanDuel at $3,800. Mullins is an ideal modern leadoff hitter, he gets on base at a steady clip, has great speed, and has already swiped 11 bases with a .376 on-base percentage this season, and he hits for power and is a good individual contributor as well. Mullins has a 129 WRC+ with three home runs this year in 122 plate appearances, last year he hit 16 home runs and stole 34 bases and he was a 30/30 player in 2021. Mateo is the team’s nine hitter most days, sometimes climbing as high as seventh, he has been their best bat overall this season and he could slot in for Mullins without changing any of these descriptions. Mateo has 10 stolen bases, he is also blazingly fast and he has been excellent at getting on base in 2023. Mateo is slashing .338/.384/.636 with a ridiculous .299 ISO while creating runs 79% better than average. The nine-to-one connection as a wraparound play is extremely strong with this pairing in stacks of Baltimore bats. Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle make another excellent duo, hitting second and fourth in this lineup. Putting all four parts together makes for a premium stack in the matchup against Greinke. Rutschman is a $5,500/$3,300 catcher who has four home runs and a 154 WRC+ in 133 plate appearances this year, Mountcastle has eight home runs after blasting a pair last night and has a .248 ISO for the season. Anthony Santander slots in between the two stars. The switch-hitting outfielder has scuffled with just two home runs this season, but he is cheap at $4,400/$2,900 and has still managed a 48.6% hard-hit rate that suggests that home runs and positive run creation are on the way. Gunnar Henderson is at just .184/.361/.303 with two home runs and a stolen base, his on-base percentage has bolstered his run creation to one percent ahead of the league average, but he is hanging by a thread at the moment. Henderson is a premium prospect and one of the top overall young players in baseball, he probably just needs more time to figure things out. The Orioles lineup has plenty of options in the infield, Henderson is likely to start and the team can sustain his struggles, but he has not been a great option for MLB DFS and he still comes at a $4,100 price on DraftKings. For $2,500 on FanDuel he is a somewhat better option at third base or shortstop. Ramon Urias has eligibility at second and third base on both sites for $2,500/$2,600, he has one home run this year and hit 16 in 445 plate appearances last year. Urias had a 9.6% barrel rate and 46.5% hard-hit for the season last year, he is a somewhat underappreciated mid-range option who is never expensive or popular in this lineup. Adam Frazier and Austin Hays slot into the seventh and eighth spots in the lineup, Hays is the one we want for MLB DFS. The outfielder has four home runs and a .212 ISO with a 134 WRC+ and would be interesting to pair with Mateo in an 8-9-1 portion of a stack.
While it may be a stretch to call Kyle Gibson an interesting pitcher, he is at worst reliably around the league average year after year, as evidenced by a 20.1% strikeout rate with a 3.94 xFIP (5.05 ERA) last year in 167.2 innings and a 20.6% strikeout rate with a 3.71 ERA and 4.14 xFIP in 182 innings in 2021. Gibson is at a 19.1% mark for strikeouts and has a 4.32 xFIP with a 3.93 ERA in his six outings and 34.1 innings in 2023. The righty is not bereft of additional upside however, he can excel in matchups against lesser teams that will feed him additional strikeout opportunities. Two starts ago, Gibson struck out 11 Tigers hitters in 6.1 innings while allowing two hits including a solo home run and walking three. He followed that performance with a three-strikeout three-run eight-hit appearance in just 4.1 innings against the same Tigers late last week to remind MLB DFS gamers who he is. Gibson is affordable but not cheap at $8,100/$9,300 and he projects in the top third of the board for pitching options today. The Royals saw Sal Perez spring to life with a pair of home runs last night, he now has five on the season and a triple-slash that looks a lot better than it did a week ago. The star catcher is up to .279/.321/.490 with a .212 ISO and a 121 WRC+. Perez is a dynamite option for $4,300/$2,700 whether catchers are needed on your site or not, but he did leave in the 8th inning after getting hit with a backswing, so there is a chance he sits tonight. Bobby Witt Jr. has struggled to find his form so far this season, he is slashing .221/.264/.410 with just an 80 WRC+ but he has hit five home runs and stolen seven bases so far this year. Witt is a fairly priced shortstop at $5,000/$3,000 and he can be included in Royals stacks when going to this team in bunches, he is one of the top hitters on the team and can rival the best at his position when he is going right. Vinnie Pasquantino also has five home runs this year and he is creating runs 36% better than average over 126 plate appearances. Pasquantino hit 10 home runs and had a 137 WRC+ in 298 opportunities last year, he is a solid MLB hitter who costs just $3,900/$3,000, DraftKings has not responded to Pasquantino’s production in the price column at all this season, and he is a good buy if building stacks of Royals on either site. MJ Melendez and Edward Olivares slot in fourth and fifth in the lineup. Melendez has three home runs and a 16.9% barrel rate with a 54.2% hard-hit rate this year but he is slashing just .177/.266/.344 while creating runs 34% worse than average. The excellent contact profile comes at a fair price, with the catcher/outfielder landing at just $4,000/$2,500 tonight, if he connects Melendez could drive one over the wall. Olivares has made 94 productive plate appearances this year, he is slashing .276/.330/.460 with two home runs, three stolen bases, and a 114 WRC+. The outfielder is another cheap play on this value-based squad at $3,000/$2,500, the Royals are a significant source of quality hitters for value prices today. Michael Massey hits from the left side and offers moderate upside, if Nick Pratto is in the lineup he is the more interesting hitter between the two lefties. Pratto hit seven home runs in 182 plate appearances with a .203 ISO last year and is a decently well-regarded bat who was drafted in the first round in 2017. Pratto hit 17 home runs in AAA last year to go with the seven he had at the MLB level, and he hit a combined 36 homers across AA and AAA in 2021. Maikel Garcia and Kyle Isbel round out the lineup for Kansas City.
Play: Orioles bats/stacks, Royals as a value bat/stack source, light Kyle Gibson
Update Notes: The Orioles have Kyle Stowers hitting fifth with Santander in the cleanup spot behind Mullins-Rutschman-Mountcastle. Mateo slides all the way up to the sixth spot in the lineup with Frazier-Urias-Ryan O’Hearn in the bottom third. O’Hearn is not a good wraparound option, but the top two-thirds of the lineup is very solid with Stower’s lefty power potential and Mateo. Stowers costs the minimum on DraftKings and he is a $2,100 option on FanDuel, the lefty hit three home runs in 98 plate appearances last year and had an 11.3% barrel rate with a 50% hard-hit percentage. Stowers has a 6.45 in our home run model and is a viable cheap bat. The Royals lineup is as expected, Pratto is hitting sixth with eligibility at first base and in the outfield for $2,600/$2,100, he is another interesting left-handed cheap power bat.
Los Angeles Angels (-132/4.31) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+122/3.78)
The Angels will be without one of the best bats in their lineup, as far as MLB DFS sites are concerned that is. Shohei Ohtani will be a presence in his usual spot in the Angels batting order and he is a major obstacle on the road to success for Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, but he will not be available for our use at the plate because he is on the mound for Los Angeles tonight. Ohtani leaves a big hole in Angels stacks, the team is still playable against Mikolas of course, they do have Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe, and Brandon Drury as a sturdy power core with the support of Zach Neto from the leadoff spot and Anthony Rendon as the projected three-hitter. Taylor Ward hit a home run in a sign of life from the seventh spot in the lineup and the Angels should also have Luis Rengifo in the eighth spot and Matt Thaiss catching and hitting ninth, but the lack of Ohtani puts a major damper on enthusiasm for this spot. An eight-hitter lineup with a hole at the top is not overly appealing, if the team does generate runs from key contributors it is extremely likely that Ohtani will be involved while not accruing MLB DFS points. On the other side of the matchup, Mikolas gains no ground, because the real-world Ohtani will absolutely be hitting against him. Mikolas has a 19.3% strikeout rate with a 4.48 xFIP and a 5.97 ERA in six starts and 31.2 innings this season. The righty has allowed a 42.7% hard-hit rate with a 91.1 mph average exit velocity this year with an 11.8% barrel rate. The soft-tossing right-handed veteran does not look like much of an option, but he could deliver enough quality on a barebones strikeout effort over five or six innings if his team manages to win against Ohtani. Mikolas costs just $6,100 on DraftKings, he is a much more low-end option for $7,500 on FanDuel. If going to Angels stacks, the key hitters are the obvious names. Trout is a superstar with seven home runs on the board this year and a 163 WRC+, Renfroe matches him with seven home runs but has a 127 WRC+, and Drury has hit five long balls with a .224 ISO and a 96 WRC+. Rendon has scuffled for power but is generally a fair bat for MLB DFS at his cheap prices and low ownership when going to this team. Neto is the projected leadoff hitter, he is slashing .263/.354/.333 and is a correlated scoring option if his on-base acumen holds up. Ward was a better player last year than he has been this season but his roller coaster production from last year may have carried over and we may be starting to tick uphill after yesterday’s home run.
The Cardinals’ excellent lineup loses some quality against right-handed pitching, and Shohei Ohtani is not just any righty. It speaks to St. Louis’ talent level that they have even a 3.78-run implied team total in this one, the lineup is very good but Ohtani is better. The right-handed two-way superstar has a 0.82 WHIP and a 35.1% strikeout rate in his 34 innings over six starts this season. Ohtani has induced a 14.7% swinging-strike rate with a 31.9% CSW% and has given up just a 27.4% hard-hit rate with a 4.8% barrel rate. He has a 3.95 xFIP below the surface of his 1.85 ERA but he is simply one of the best pitchers in the game, while also being one of its best hitters. Ohtani’s numbers from last year align well with his short-sample production, there is nothing outlandish or unbelievable (for him) about his early numbers this year, he can be expected to have a very strong start tonight for the $11,400/$11,100 salary, even against a tough Cardinals lineup that includes Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado with a long list of capable friends. The two stars should be included in any contrarian stacks attacking Ohtani, Goldschmidt has been the Cardinals’ best hitter early this season while Arenado has struggled, they are both in a very bad matchup tonight. Lars Nootbaar is projected to leadoff with his sturdy left-handed bat, his 25% strikeout rate is likely to be higher this time tomorrow. Nolan Gorman sits in between the star corner infielders in the projected third spot in the lineup. Gorman has six home runs and a .256 ISO with a 137 WRC+ but his 27.9% strikeout rate also seems like a candidate to jump by a few percentage points before sunrise tomorrow. Willson Contreras is a playable catcher in most scenarios, this is not a great example of one. Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Brendan Donovan, and Tommy Edman are all capable bats with a blend of power, speed, and on-base skills about whom we have said very nice things many times already this season in this space, today is not those days. The Cardinals are a lower-end stack tonight than they typically are, they should be rostered only in a specific contrarian approach to the Ohtani start, but it is not a likely spot, even if he the pitcher does not fully deliver on his salary it seems unlikely that he will completely implode and offer St. Louis slate-winning upside.
Play: Shohei Ohtani
Update Notes: the Cardinals lineup is as expected.
Milwaukee Brewers (-114/6.22) @ Colorado Rockies (+105/5.92)
It’s Coors Field, play the bats. That first sentence would probably be enough to cover this one tonight, with lefties Eric Lauer and Kyle Freeland making starts for teams carrying 6.22 and 5.92-run implied team totals in a game with at least three more runs expected than the next-highest total in Vegas. The Brewers are the better of these two lineups, they are sure to be very popular tonight against a pitcher who allows plenty of premium contact and does not strike out many hitters. Freeland gave up a 42% hard-hit rate with 89.8 mph of average exit velocity while pitching to a 4.49 xFIP and 4.53 ERA and a 17.1% strikeout rate last year. He has a 15.6% strikeout rate with a 5.07 xFIP and 4.32 ERA this year with a 5.19% home run rate allowed, this is a target of a pitcher at Coors Field. Christian Yelich has a 5.5% barrel rate and a 52.1% hard-hit this year, he had an 8.2% barrel rate with a 48.1% hard-hit last season, posting 14 home runs and stealing 19 bases. That level of production is a significant step down from the version of Yelich that won an MVP but he is not priced quite like that player, even in a Coors game. Yelich costs $5,600/$3,500 and is an interesting option with his ability to drive the ball and his speed, if nothing else, in the big ballpark. Yelich hits ahead of mashing shortstop Willy Adames, who has five home runs and a .183 ISO this year. Adames has a 12% barrel rate for $6,100/$3,700 and has created runs six percent better than average, but his hard-hit rate has dipped from 43.4% to 33.3% in the small sample. Adames will square the ball up with more regularity as the season goes along, he will be popular even at the high prices tonight, which is totally justifiable. William Contreras did not deliver our home run call last night but he looks like an excellent catcher option again today for $4,800/$3,300. He is likely to be very popular, and will probably be the most commonly clicked name at his position, but he is worth it. Contreras has slashed .293/.376/.402 with a 117 WRC+ so far in 2023. Mike Brosseau is always in play against a lefty, particularly in this ballpark. The platoon specialist has three home runs this year, righty Brian Anderson has five homers in his hot start but is now slashing .245/.319/.441. Anderson is cheap at third base and in the outfield for $4,200 on DraftKings, he still costs $3,700 on the blue site with the same positioning which could knock down ownership slightly. Luke Voit costs $3,600/$2,800 and is not good overall, but he has upside in this spot. Voit has no home runs in 54 opportunities this year and has only barreled 2.9% of his batted-ball events. Owen Miller and Joey Weimer occupy two of the final slots, they are mix-and-match pieces in a Coors game, and Tyrone Taylor offers a bit more quality for just $2,400/$2,500 in the outfield. Taylor hit 17 home runs in 405 plate appearances last year and just came back to the roster last night, so he may remain a bit sneaky.
The Rockies’ lousy lineup is facing a decent lefty in Eric Lauer, but the pitcher does not have much upside in this start. Lauer has a 4.95 xFIP and a 5.19 ERA this year but he is a better pitcher than that, in 158.2 innings in 2022 he had a 4.08 xFIP with a 3.69 ERA and a 23.8% strikeout rate, but his propensity to pitch to flyballs is not a great fit with Coors Field, Lauer seems easily skippable on this slate. Charlie Blackmon is projected to leadoff despite the same-handed pitcher, he has a pair of home runs and has created runs eight percent better than average so far this year while slashing .276/.385/.408. Blackmon has not hit the ball hard in 2023, he has just a 7.1% barrel rate and a 28.6% hard-hit mark, roughly similar to the 29.5% hard-hit rate produced by Jurickson Profar in the two-spot in the lineup. Profar is a flawed option who is slashing .220/.298/.340 with a 61 WRC+ and just a 3.8% barrel rate, the Rockies would do well to find another option soon. Kris Bryant and CJ Cron are at 8.16 and 10.51 in our home run model today. The pair of right-handed power hitters have good upside in this matchup, Bryant has three home runs and a 108 WRC+ this season but his ISO is at just .126, Cron has the opposite problem with a .235 ISO but just an 87 WRC+, he has six home runs on the board. The duo can be rostered in the heart of Rockies lineups with the hope that they go somewhat under-owned for the good opportunity. Elias Diaz has a 46.4% barrel rate and three home runs while slashing .330/.385/.500 with a .170 ISO and 128 WRC+, the catcher has been one of the most productive bats for Colorado so far this season and he can be deployed for one-off shares or in stacks. Ryan McMahon has a significant 19.4% barrel rate and a 50% hard-hit for the season in his 116 plate appearances, right-handed outfielder Randal Grichuk has a 55.6% hard-hit rate with an 11.1% barrel mark in his 12 opportunities this season and hit 19 home runs in 538 tries last year. McMahon and Grichuk make an interesting low-cost power duo from late in the lineup, they can be mixed-and-matched with shares of the other hitters above them, while the final spots in the Rockies lineup are less appealing, though Ezequiel Tovar got on the board with his first home run last night.
Play: bats bats bats
Update Notes: the Rockies lineup is as expected.
Seattle Mariners (-159/4.23) @ Oakland Athletics (+146/3.36)
The final game of the day is decidedly one-sided with the Mariners taking on the Athletics. The visiting club is drawing just a 4.23-run implied team total on the board in Vegas, which seems off given that they will be facing JP Sears who has a 5.08 xFIP and a 6.23 ERA this season in five starts. Sears has a 24.8% strikeout rate this year but has allowed a 6.42% home run rate on a 15.1% barrel rate and 41.1% hard-hit mark this year. The lefty is not a high-end starter, he may settle in around league average over the long term, but the loaded Mariners lineup looks like a great option and it is packed with powerful righty bats. Julio Rodriguez was a frustrating late scratch last night after the team initially announced him as being in the lineup. Rodriguez is dealing with a minor injury and is projected to play tonight, but keep an eye on the news. The star costs $5,700/$3,600 and can be played in any scenario despite a slow start at .239/.301/.442. He still has a .204 ISO with a 111 WRC+ and has hit five homers with six stolen bases this year. Ty France is never as popular as his talent warrants, although he has not been great so far in 2023. The first baseman does have a positive 103 WRC+, but he is slashing just .238/.336/.352 with only one home run and a .114 ISO. France hit 20 home runs and had a 127 WRC+ last year with a much better hit tool on display in the full-season sample. Eugenio Suarez has a pair of home runs but just an uncharacteristic .090 ISO and an 87 WRC+. His run-creation mark outpaces the disappointing 81 WRC+ that has been posted by Teoscar Hernandez so far in his first Mariners season. The outfielder is slashing just .202/.240/.412 but he has seven home runs and a .211 ISO this year and was a 25-home-run hitter last year. Hernandez is priced down at just $4,000/$2,800, the Mariners are an interesting source of value tonight with so many good bats priced down against the middling lefty. A.J. Pollock has three home runs but is slashing .130/.172/.333 with a .204 ISO in his 58 plate appearances. Pollock is an established veteran on the back nine of his career at age 35, he is capable if he is in the lineup at a cheap price and low ownership. Jarred Kelenic has a 15.2% barrel rate and a 56.1% hard-hit for the season, he has mashed seven home runs and has an outstanding .309 ISO with a 176 WRC+. Kelenic costs $4,400/$3,300, he is a terrific option if he is in the lineup, even in a same-handed matchup, he is likely to see at least one or two plate appearances against a weak right-handed reliever at the absolute worst, but Kelenic has been a good hitter in a small sample against fellow southpaws this season. Tom Murphy has been overshadowed by Cal Raleigh as a power-hitting catcher on this team, but he is an interesting bat when he lands in the lineup, particularly against a lefty like Sears. Murphy hit 11 home runs in 325 plate appearances in 2021 but missed most of last year, making just 42 plate appearances with one homer, this season he has zero in 33 tries but there is a powerful bat lurking for just $2,200/$2,000. Jose Caballero and JP Crawford round out the projected lineup.
The final piece of today’s puzzle is Mariners’ starter, Logan Gilbert. The righty is in the best matchup in baseball with the Athletics on the other side and the pitching conditions should be highly favorable. Gilbert is a very good young pitcher who has a 30.1% strikeout rate with a 2.94 xFIP under his 4.23 ERA in 27.2 innings over five starts this year. He had a 22.7% strikeout rate and a 3.78 xFIP in 185.2 innings last year and a 25.4% rate over 119.1 innings in 2021. Gilbert has given up just a 5.4% barrel rate and a 36.5% hard-hit percentage this year, a marked improvement from the 45.6% hard-hit he allowed last year and the 44.6% the year before. Gilbert should see a bump in strikeouts and has a very good opportunity to post six clean innings while chasing the win and quality start in this one, he is a leading pitching option on both sites but costs just $8,500/$9,800. Gilbert should be rostered aggressively around the industry regardless of where his popularity projections land, this is a team that is barely clinging to Major League relevance, they have maybe three true MLB hitters in their lineup and probably none that would be starting for other teams, yes including Brent Rooker. Outside of Rooker’s hot start with nine home runs and a .403 ISO with a 222 WRC+, this team has been mostly inept for power and run creation. Shea Langeliers has six home runs as a power-hitting catcher who costs $3,600/$2,700. Ryan Noda has three home runs and a .183 ISO with a 135 WRC+ over 89 plate appearances and costs just $2,300/$2,800. Ramon Laureano and Jace Peterson are veterans who have won MLB DFS slates in the past but have struggled for relevance the past few seasons. Conner Capel, Tony Kemp, and Kevin Smith close out the very weak lineup. Gilbert is the smash play against this lousy Oakland team, the bats are not overly appealing in any sense.
Play: Logan Gilbert aggressively, Mariners bats/stacks
Update Notes: an original version of this article had George Kirby as the expected starter for Seattle
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