A small but interesting five-game MLB DFS slate lands at a 6:40 ET lock time on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. For a small slate, there are several premium arms available, which will be an interesting wrinkle when it comes to pitching ownership, particularly on the single starter site, where it seems something will have to give. There are pitchers from lower tiers in seemingly good matchups this evening as well, and the overall talent on the mound is having something of a limiting effect on the upside of teams at the plate. The leading team for home run upside in our Power Index is the Yankees, but they could easily have one of their patented two home runs but a low score and 10 strikeouts for the talented opposing pitcher performances this evening. The Twins appear to be in a great matchup and they are too cheap from top to bottom. Getting to a broad spread of bats, and perhaps playing some of the contrarian pitching in larger shares than the field, seems like a good approach to a five-game slate of this nature.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 4/27/23
Baltimore Orioles (-143/4.40) @ Detroit Tigers (+132/3.69)
The Orioles are in Detroit to face Joey Wentz, and the lefty is having an impact on the Baltimore lineup’s power projections. Wentz only has a small sample of data to work with, over 32.2 innings in seven starts last season he posted a 20% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate, with a 4.56 xFIP under the surface of his seemingly good 3.03 ERA. Wentz induced just an 8.6% swinging-strike rate and had a 24.1% CSW% in that sample, but he kept hard hits to just 35.1% with a 7.4% barrel rate and 88.8 mph of average exit velocity that amounted to a 1.48% home run rate in the small sample. In a shorter sample this season, Wentz has allowed a similar contact profile, though the average launch angle has increased from 12.9 degrees to 19.5 over his 16.2 innings in four starts with hard hits going up to 38.5%. While that amounts to a 4.05% home run rate, it is important to remember that amounts to three home runs to 74 hitters in four starts. Beyond the questions about what power will look like, Wentz just is not very good. The lefty has struck out just 18.9% while walking 10.8% with a 5.75 xFIP and a 1.50 WHIP so far this year. His swinging strikes and CSW% are up slightly, but it has hardly mattered to this point. Wentz is priced at $5,100/$6,000, he is probably the best of the three value options, ahead of Zack Greinke and Trevor Williams, but behind the more expensive Joey Lucchesi, but it is not a strong play at all. The Orioles lineup seems like the hill on which to position if required to take sides in this one. Baltimore’s young lineup has been productive for MLB DFS and they feature power and speed up and down the projected batting order, but they have not been flawless early in the season. The team is projected to have Ryan McKenna in the leadoff spot tonight, he lands at the minimum on DraftKings and just $2,100 on FanDuel, which puts him in play immediately if he hits at the top of the lineup. McKenna made 172 plate appearances last year, slashing .237/.294/.340 and creating runs 20% worse than average with two home runs and two stolen bases. He was not any better in 197 opportunities in 2021. So far this year, McKenna has a stolen base and a 92 WRC+ in 22 plate appearances, do not confuse this with a good player, he would be in place for value and correlated scoring potential if he hits leadoff. Adley Rutschman is definitely a good player. The catcher costs $5,100/$3,600 and he is in play on both sites, though he has just a 2.47 in the suppressed home run numbers for this team tonight. Rutschman has hit four long balls this season and he is sporting a 139 WRC+ while getting on base at a .405 clip, he is an excellent option at catcher. After slashing .254/.362/.445 with a .191 ISO and 13 home runs last year, Rutschman seemed destined to compete for the mantle of baseball’s best offensive catcher, he has arrived in that conversation this season. Ryan Mountcastle’s contact profile has been mentioned a number of times in this space early in the season. The first baseman rivaled the best players in baseball for premium contact throughout all of last season but was up and down for overall production because of a few nagging flaws at the plate. Mountcastle has a 15% barrel rate and a 48.8% hard-hit rate with six home runs over his 106 plate appearances this season, but he is scuffling at just .238/.255/.455 with a 91 WRC+ to go with his strong .218 ISO. The reason for the low on-base marks is an atrocious 2.8% walk rate to this point in the season. Mountcastle has not struck out much and he has been driving the ball regularly, he has just a 21.7% strikeout rate which is an improvement on his 25.3% from last year, all signs point to what should be improved production across the board with this player, but he has been bogged down by bad luck with just a .243 batting average on balls in play this year. Mountcastle will absolutely hit and should overcome the bad luck while getting on base more often, for now, he is discounted at $4,600/$3,500. Anthony Santander needs to start hitting or we are going to start looking silly. The outfielder has been mired in a monthlong slump, with his triple-slash now at .205/.274/.325 with just one home run and a 66 WRC+ over 95 plate appearances. Santander hit 33 home runs while creating runs 20% better than average with a .214 ISO just last year he is cheap for that type of upside at $3,800/$2,700 against this pitcher. Ramon Urias has good right-handed pop for $3,300/$2,800 and he offers multi-position eligibility on both sites at second and third base. James McCann has not done much this season, or last season for that matter. The catcher gets opportunities against lefties for the memory of his once excellent sneaky go-to production at the plate in the split, but he was a .195/.257/.282 hitter last year with just three home runs and a .086 ISO in his 191 plate appearances. McCann has one home run but a 23 WRC+ in his 25 opportunities this season. Gunnar Henderson costs just $3,600/$2,700 with eligibility at third base and shortstop on both sites. Henderson is a top prospect who has not fully found his form this year but he has two home runs on the board to go with a stolen base and he has gotten on at a solid .357 clip in his 84 plate appearances. Henderson hit four home runs in 132 plate appearances in a cup of coffee last year, he has terrific upside at the low prices. Jorge Mateo has been fantastic to start the season. The shortstop is hitting for power to go with his terrific speed and in a gift from the baseball gods, he is getting on base regularly. Mateo has made 67 plate appearances and he has four home runs, he hit just 13 in 533 opportunities last year. He has stolen eight bases while getting on at a .400 clip, he stole 35 while getting on at just a .267 pace last year. He is slashing .351/.400/.649 with a .298 ISO and creating runs 87% better than average in the tiny 2023 sample, all well up from the .221/.267/.379 with a .158 ISO and an 82 WRC+ from last year. Cedric Mullins is a luxury to have in the ninth spot in the lineup, even if he suffers against same-handed pitching. The Orioles may go a different way, but if Mullins plays he can be in lineups with context kept in mind. The outfielder has excellent speed, even if he does not hit well, Wentz issues too many free passes and may not be in the game very long if all goes right for the Baltimore stack. Mullins is in play and should be low-owned around the industry.
Veteran righty Kyle Gibson gets a look at the Tigers tonight, he is priced up for the opportunity on the FanDuel slate, where he lands third by salary at $10,200. DraftKings chose to ignore the matchup and left the capable Gibson at $7,400, making him a very strong value play for use in the SP2 role, or even as a pairing with another cheaper pitcher in an angle for premium hitting across the full lineup. Gibson and an $8,000 Tyler Mahle on the site, for example, could absolutely deliver significant value as a pairing with high-upside bats. Gibson has been basically on-form to start the season. The righty has made five starts and thrown 30 innings, he has a 4.26 xFIP and a 20.3% strikeout rate with a 3.60 ERA and a 3.39% home run ate on 38.1% hard hits. Last season Gibson had a 3.94 xFIP with a 20.1% strikeout rate, a 3.34% home run rate, and a 37.3% hard-hit rate. If consistently average is your thing, Gibson is your pitcher. He is in a great spot against a bad Tigers lineup tonight, he dominated this same lineup in his most recent start, posting an outrageous 11 strikeouts in 6.1 innings while walking three and allowing just a solo home run and a base hit. While a facsimile performance is not exactly likely, it is not out of the question, while a total disaster of an outing is also unlikely, something firmly in the middle seems fair for the asking price, particularly on DraftKings. There are contrarian plays and then there is the Tigers’ lineup, this is just not a good baseball team. Detroit’s projected batting order has one player who is not below average for run creation this season, second baseman and projected leadoff man Zach McKinstry, who sits exactly at league average with a 100 WRC+ in his 50 plate appearances. Two players were above-average for run creation last year, Nick Maton had a 135 WRC+ in 85 plate appearances, and Kerry Carpenter had a 126 in 113 opportunities. This year they are at a 58 and a 95 over 80 and 72 plate appearances, respectively. Carpenter has been the better of the two lefty bats, but neither has been truly good. Maton is slashing .141/.238/.338 with a .197 ISO and four home runs, tying Carpenter for the team lead in long balls, but underperforming his .197/.264/.439 and .242 ISO. The other lefty at the top of the projected lineup is Riley Greene, who checks in at $3,500/$2,700 for his .222/.278/.333 triple-slash, a .111 ISO, and 73 WRC+ for the season. Greene made 418 plate appearances last year, slashing .253/.321/.362 with a .109 ISO and just five home runs. The only encouraging signs are his 9.3% barrel rate and 45.2% hard-hit from last year and the 11.8% and 41.2% that he posted early this season. In fact, all of the top five projected hitters in Detroit’s lineup, including Spencer Torkelson, have barrel rates over 10% and hard-hit rates (with the exception of McKinstry) over 40%. Carpenter leads the group for premium contact with an excellent 17.8% barrel rate and 44.4% hard-hit, he had an 11.1% mark for barrels last season. Torkelson has a 10% barrel rate and 45.7% hard-hit mark for the season and that’s about it. The former first-overall pick has hit two home runs and stolen one base while creating runs 43% worse than average in his 95 tries this year. He was 24% below average in 404 opportunities last year. At least he is cheap. Akil Baddoo is also cheap at $2,900/$2,500, he has no home runs, two stolen bases, and an 85 WRC+ in 51 opportunities this year but was relevant with 13 home runs and 18 steals in 461 plate appearances in 2021. Miguel Cabrera remembers 2021… probably. The aging veteran was already past his prime by then, in 2023 he may as well be wrapped and up like a mummy. Cabrera is slashing a dismal .205/.255/.273 with a .068 ISO and no home runs while creating runs 51% worse than average in 47 plate appearances, if he is in the lineup he is barely relevant. Jonathan Schoop has made just 44 plate appearances and he has been only slightly better than Cabrera, he will also struggle for relevance outside of being at nearly the minimum price on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Eric Haase is slashing .250/.300/.304 with a 68 WRC+ over 60 plate appearances but has hit none of the home runs he is paid to hit. Haase mashed 14 long balls in 351 tries last year and 22 in 381 opportunities in 2021, he is a cheap one-off catcher bat but it would be more compelling if he were hitting, say, sixth in this awful lineup.
Play: Kyle Gibson (Gibson & Mahle is interesting as a cheap high-end pitcher pairing on DraftKings), Orioles bats/stacks in medium shares, bargain bin Joey Wentz with no expectations in tournaments if an extreme value is an absolute must.
Update Notes: The Orioles shook up the projected lineup, Mullins is leading off, which is good if he can get on base, Mateo is hitting sixth with Adam Frazier slotting in seventh in place of Gunnar Henderson, who is out of the lineup. Bump to Mateo’s projection, bump to Mullins in the leadoff role, McKenna gets a downgrade dropping to eighth in the lineup, and Joey Ortiz is rounding out the confirmed lineup as a $2,000 DraftKings shortstop who is not on the FanDuel slate. The Tigers lineup ends up with McKinstry and Greene up top, followed by Javier Baez, who was not in our projected lineup originally (update to the update: Baez scratched after being announced, Schoop is back in hitting ninth, Torkelson slides up to third). Maton-Carpenter-Torkelson-Cabrera-Baddoo-Haase rounds out the lineup.
Tampa Bay Rays (-150/3.89) @ Chicago White Sox (+138/3.19)
The Rays and White Sox have two of the night’s better pitchers going in what looks to be another low-totaled affair in less-than-ideal baseball conditions in Chicago. The temperature in the Windy City is forecast to be around 59 degrees at first pitch, but looks to taper off into the mid-40s fairly early in the game. While we try to not play amateur meteorologists, it is important to note that conditions do have a somewhat difficult-to-quantify impact on production. In the most simplistic terms, baseballs travel further in warmer weather and thinner air. Speculating on the degree to which this impacts any individual hitter’s projection is a complex exercise, for now, it is easiest to presume that this will be something of a boost to the pitching and a ding to hitters, which is accounted for in the eight-run total. The Rays will be facing Dylan Cease, a right-handed strikeout artist who dances his way in and out of trouble by walking too many hitters. Cease has a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 10.9% walk rate with a 3.95 xFIP and 1.18 WHIP over his first five starts and 26.1 innings this year. The righty struck out 30.4% in 184 innings and 32 starts last year and 31.9% in 165.2 the season before. He also walked 10.4% and 9.6% in those seasons, but it does not hurt Cease much, he is able to pitch his way out of most of the trouble that he creates. Despite the free passes, Cease had just a 3.50 xFIP with a sparkling 2.20 ERA last year and he posted a 3.72 xFIP with a 3.91 ERA in 2021. The righty is facing a Rays lineup that has been outrageously good to start the season, but between the conditions and the pitcher’s talent, things seem to be with the options on the mound on both sides of this one. The Rays are not out of play by any means, in truth, this can be treated as a game with at least three playable sides, but the pitching is favored. Yandy Diaz has hit six home runs and created runs 67% better than average, he costs $5,000/$3,600 but has been worth it to start the year, he is a strong correlation play if going to stacks of Rays bats and he produces MLB DFS points on his own as well. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena will be in the All-Star Game this year, the pair have a 160 and a 179 WRC+ respectively, Franco has four home runs and Arozarena has five, while Franco leads in steals five to three. The shortstop is slashing .302/.368/.552 with a .250 ISO while Arozarena is at .341/.410/.571 with a .231 ISO, a 16.9% barrel rate, and a 59.2% hard-hit rate. Harold Ramirez is too cheap at $4,100/$3,300, Josh Lowe joins him at $4,500/$3,300, all the pair have done has been to create runs 109% and 80% better than average over 72 and 68 plate appearances respectively. While both players will certainly come back to Earth as the sample grows, they are productive bats in a highly productive offense and they are cheap for the opportunity to correlate and create MLB DFS points. Ramirez had a strong hit tool and was at a 119 WRC+ over 435 plate appearances last year, the early power this season has been a welcome addition, he has five home runs already after hitting just six all of last season. Isaac Paredes is hitting seventh in the projected lineup, he has a 6.32 in our home run model and is eligible at first and third base on the FanDuel slate for just $2,800. Paredes is a $3,800 third baseman on DraftKings, he hit 20 home runs in just 381 plate appearances last year. Francisco Mejia and Jose Siri round out the projected lineup, Mejia has underwhelmed in 41 plate appearances, but Siri is always interesting and he functions well as a cheap wraparound play. He has two home runs and a stolen base in 30 plate appearances this season and hit seven home runs with 14 steals in 325 plate appearances last year.
Rays ace Shane McClanahan is our top projected pitcher on tonight’s slate. The lefty costs $10,000 on DraftKings and $11,300 on the FanDuel slate, which will force the cost issue when comparing him with less expensive options. McClanahan is at the top of the board, but not by nearly a wide enough margin to make the cost difference irrelevant. The southpaw is absolutely in play, there is a chance that the high price keeps his popularity in check more than it actually should, and he has a big ceiling on any slate. McClanahan has an excellent 32.5% strikeout rate with a 3.28 xFIP and a dazzling 1.86 ERA in his first five starts and 29 innings this season. He has dominated with a 20.3% swinging-strike rate and 34.6% CSW% while allowing just a 33.8% hard-hit rate and a 1.75% home run rate to this point. The lefty is very difficult to square up for power, he allowed just a 32.5% hard-hit rate and a 2.96% home run rate over 166.1 innings while striking out 30.3% and pitching to a sterling 2.60 xFIP and 2.54 ERA last year. McClanahan should be owned, if he is under-projected for popularity around the industry his appeal as a pricey play in MLB DFS tournaments grows. The White Sox lineup has talent but they are racked with injuries and have a number of major holes in the lineup, lending credence to the idea of a ceiling score for the opposing pitcher. Chicago’s projected lineup is still missing Tim Anderson, who is starting a rehab assignment on his way back from the Injured List. In his place in the leadoff role is perhaps the least favored player in this space, Elvis Andrus, who does not deserve to hit atop anyone’s lineup. Andrus has been making our case easy all month, he is slashing .195/.260/.230 with a .034 ISO, no home runs, and three stolen bases in 96 plate appearances while creating runs 63% worse than average in 2023. Andrus produced for MLB DFS gamers who went to him last season, he hit 17 home runs and stole 18 bases in 577 plate appearances and, for just the third time in a career that stretches back to 2009, he posted an above-average mark for run creation with a 105 WRC+. That was the first season that Andrus was above the waterline since 2017 when he had a matching 105, the year before he was at 109. Every other season of Andrus’ career has seen below-league-average run creation from a player who is regarded as an asset. Andrus can steal bases but he has an uninspiring .325 on-base percentage for his career. His career WRC+ is 86, putting him 14% below average in creating runs over his whopping 8,293 plate appearances and 1,972 games. The 34-year-old stole a long career from a better player somewhere out there. Anyway, Andrus costs $2,400/$2,300 and sucks and is in a terrible spot, but who knows in a leadoff spot? Andrew Vaughn slots into the second spot in the lineup, he has disappointed over 103 plate appearances, but on the plus side for White Sox fans, Jose Abreu has been just as bad in Houston. Vaughn at least has created runs five percent better than average on the back of a .340 on-base percentage and he has an encouraging 44.1% hard-hit rate. The first baseman is cheap at $2,800 on both sites, he hit 17 home runs in 555 plate appearances last year and has a right-handed upside. Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez are the two stars in the lineup for this team today. Robert is slashing .218/.240/.426 but has a .208 ISO with five home runs. His lowly on-base and hit tool production have the outfielder at 20% below average for run creation so far this year though, the White Sox have not been good to start 2023. Jimenez missed time and has scuffled to a .172/.243/.313 triple-slash in his 70 opportunities, but his price tag is too low at $3,200/$2,800, even against this pitcher. Jimenez has maintained a 14.6% barrel rate despite the early struggles, he should come around as long as he manages to stay on the field. Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit down the lineup with a lefty on the hill, he has not done much to start the season despite slashing .295/.347/.352, his slugging percentage is telling of the problem, the power and contact profile have been absent. Benintendi has a .057 ISO and a 1.4% barrel rate with a flimsy 21.9% hard-hit percentage. Jake Burger knows how to hit the ball hard, he is sitting at a massive 27.6% barrel rate and a 51.7% hard-hit mark over 55 plate appearances and he is tied with Robert for the team lead with five home runs. Burger has been the best player when he is in the lineup, posting a 43% better-than-average mark for run creation in the limited sample. Seby Zavala, Lenyn Sosa, and Romy Gonzalez are not viable assets for MLB DFS outside of sheer differentiation and the “that’s baseball” of the thing.
Play: Shane McClanahan, Dylan Cease, Rays bats stacks in smaller doses
Update Notes: The White Sox will have Benintendi leading off despite the same-handed matchup, with Vaughn-Robert-Jimenez as expected. Yasmani Grandal adds another capable bat in the fifth spot as a playable catcher, he is followed by Burger, Andrus who thankfully is not leading off, Oscar Colas, a cheap rookie outfielder with a 62 WRC+ and a .063 ISO in 71 plate appearances, and Sosa. Correction – the Rays lineup was not as expected, Brandon Lowe will be in the lineup hitting cleanup, the power-hitting second baseman is an excellent option at $5,500/$3,700 and gives a boost to the Rays against Cease, though he could also strike out four times. Harold Ramirez and Jose Siri are out of the lineup tonight, Taylor Walls is hitting seventh behind Josh Lowe and Paredes, who slides up to fifth. Luke Raley is hitting eighth adding another left-handed bat with an interesting contact profile at a cheap price to the equation. Raley has four home runs and a .275 ISO but is slashing .176/.259/.451 with a 98 WRC+ for $3,000/$2,700 at first base or in the outfield. Switch-hitting Walls is creating runs 88% better than average while slashing .313/.411/.604 with three home runs and two stolen bases so far, he is a $4,100 option at second and third base on DraftKings and a $3,800 three-position play adding shortstop on FanDuel. Overall this is probably a bump to the Rays lineup.
Washington Nationals (+208/3.40) @ New York Mets (-231/5.21)
Mets starter Joey Lucchesi dazzled in his return from an extended absence the last time out. The nine-strikeout seven-inning four-hit shutout was entirely unexpected, which is not to say that Lucchesi is untalented, just that the depth of start was a total surprise for a pitcher who missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. Lucchesi made eight starts and threw 38.1 innings in 2021 before going down with the injury, he had a 26.1% strikeout rate and a 4.03 xFIP with a 4.46 ERA while allowing some premium contact but just a 2.55% home run rate in the short sample. It is difficult to know exactly what to expect from the lefty in this outing, but there is clearly no leash on his innings and he has a great matchup against the Nationals. Lucchesi costs just $6,400 on DraftKings and $8,300 on FanDuel, he is a bargain on both sites and is in the mix with Gibson and Mahle for value-based shares. The Nationals lineup is loaded with right-handed hitting in its projected form and the team’s active roster has been productive for run creation while hitting for almost no power against lefties this season, which adds to the mystery of this spot. Washington is bad and targetable, but at least a few shares of some of their better hitters are not unwarranted, the trick is figuring out which ones are the better hitters in this group. Alex Call is slashing .224/.357/.284 with a .060 ISO and an 87 WRC+ but he has a 112 WRC+ and is slashing .300/.407/.350, albeit with a .050 ISO, in 27 plate appearances against lefties this season. Call is a cheap leadoff man who can get on base and provide correlated scoring if this lineup gets moving. Lane Thomas is slashing .267/.319/.314 with a .047 ISO and a 76 WRC+ over 94 plate appearances, which isn’t good. In his 27 tries against lefties, Thomas is slashing .417/.481/.458 with a 165 WRC+ this season. Switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario leads this team with four home runs in his 103 plate appearances, he hit 13 last season in 467 opportunities. Candelario is slashing .245/.291/.415 with a .170 ISO while creating runs 11% worse than average overall, and he’s been terrible in his 29 plate appearances against lefties this year, sorry if we got your hopes up there. For his career, the switch-hitter has been better for run creation in this split though, he has a 107 WRC+ in 653 plate appearances as a righty against a lefty and just a 95 WRC+ in 1,910 tries from the left-side against right-handed pitching. Joey Meneses has one home run and is slashing .266/.303/.362 with a .096 ISO but he was far better last season in 240 plate appearances. Meneses hit 13 home runs and had a .239 ISO in 2022, and he had a .310 ISO with a 201 WRC+ in his 76 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Keibert Ruiz is a good young catcher with a capable bat, he is slashing .286/.353/.416 with a 112 WRC+ and two home runs and is this team’s best hitter right now, though he does not offer much in terms of a contact profile with just a 5.7% barrel rate and a 31.4% hard-hit percentage. Ruiz is cheap at $2,800/$2,700, he should be stackable on both sites when going to value low-owned Nationals and he can be played as a one-off value catcher where the position is required if necessary. Outfielder Stone Garrett lands at $3,400/$2,900 with a team-leading 5.11 in our home run model. Garrett had a 9.4% barrel rate and a 49.1% hard-hit rate across his 84 plate appearances last year, hitting four home runs with a .263 ISO in the tiny tiny sample. Michael Chavis has a .204 ISO for his career against lefties, if he is in the lineup he is a consideration for a low salary and low ownership. Victor Robles has been a productive player over 82 plate appearances, which has not been something we could have said about the outfielder over any stretch of 82 plate appearances elsewhere in his career. Robles has a .279/.380/.353 triple-slash with a 108 WRC+ and six stolen bases, which qualifies as productive for this team. The final spot in the batting order is occupied by Jeter Downs a rookie infielder who checks in at the dead minimum on both sites. Downs made 41 plate appearances in a cup of coffee with Boston last year, slashing .154/.171/.256 with a .103 ISO, a home run, and a WRC+ of seven, which is also known as 93% below average. The sample is absurdly small, so it is unfair to draw any conclusions, but Downs has largely been dropped from top prospect boards coming into his age 24-25 season, despite being a consensus top-100 prospect and a 32nd overall pick in the competitive balance round in 2017. Downs bounced from Cincinnati to the Dodgers and then was part of the haul that Boston got in the Mookie Betts trade, along with Alex Verdugo and Connor Wong. Washington claimed Downs after he was DFA’d by Boston to make room for Mastaka Yoshida this offseason, which shows how far he fell in overall esteem, but if one is making many stacks of Nationals it would only make sense to include a few shares of a minimum price infielder.
Now that we’ve said more than anyone in the industry will say about the Nationals tonight, let’s turn our attention to a good baseball team. The Mets are facing Trevor Williams, a righty who has a 15.1% strikeout rate with a 4.89 xFIP and 3.49% home run rate on a 13.2% barrel rate in his 21.1 innings over four starts. Last season in a more appropriate but not large sample of 89.2 innings and nine starts, Williams had a 3.93 xFIP with a 22.6% strikeout rate and a 3.23% home run rate, he was around a league-average pitcher overall, which was mostly true about his 91 innings and 15 starts in 2021 as well. Williams has actually been good at limiting hard hits and exit velocity overall this season, he has just a 32.5% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of only 85.3 mph. He gave up two home runs to the Rays in his first start and allowed one to the Twins in his fourth outing, but has not given up more than three runs in a start and has pitched into the sixth inning twice and five innings the other two times. Williams is not a strong option, of course, and this is not an endorsement of utilizing him on the mound for MLB DFS, but there is perhaps the notion that he is a bit better than the public might expect, and maybe he keeps the Mets to just a few runs and not a massive amount of MLB DFS production tonight. On the other hand, New York has a very good lineup and a Pete Alonso. The masher of a first baseman has been stuck at 10 home runs since setting the Mets’ April record about a week ago, but he is one of baseball’s best power hitters and is carrying a .316 ISO while creating runs 42% better than average over 109 plate appearances. Alonso has a 16.7% barrel rate but somehow just a 40.3% hard-hit rate this year, that mark will climb as time goes on. Alonso is slashing .245/.321/.561 hitting cleanup regularly for this team. He slots in behind fellow star Francisco Lindor, who is slashing .213/.318/.436 and making readers who don’t know baseball say “star?” in their heads as they read those stats. Lindor is long since proven and comes at an arguably cheap price for a player who has produced multiple 30/20 seasons in his career and had 26 home runs with 16 stolen bases and a 127 WRC+ last year. Lindor has hit four home runs and swiped two bags this season, producing a 112 WRC+ despite the lowly triple-slash. The table is set for those two by excellent correlated scoring options in Brandon Nimmo, the team’s left-handed leadoff hitter who is getting on base at a .449 clip and creating runs 64% better than average, and Starling Marte, who has stolen seven bases but otherwise scuffled along over 89 plate appearances in 2023. Marte hit 16 home runs and stole 18 bases last year, he had 12 home runs and 47 steals in 2021, he’s fine. Jeff McNeil is a hit tool and correlation play who can get involved at a fair price with second base and outfield eligibility on both sites. He is projected to hit between Alonso and Daniel Vogelbach who brings mid-range power from the left side of the plate at $2,300/$2,800. The DraftKings price is appealing, Vogelbach hit 18 home runs in 461 plate appearances last year, all off of right-handed pitching. In fact, 62 of his 68 career home runs have come against righties. Mark Canha hit 13 home runs in 542 plate appearances while getting on base at a .367 clip and creating runs 28% better than average in 2022. Brett Baty has a .240/.296/.280 triple-slash with a .040 ISO and a 68 WRC+ over his first 27 plate appearances this year, he will hit. Francisco Alvarez is similarly bumping along the bottom trying to find his footing in the Show. Unlike Baty, Alvarez is actually probably not ready to hit Major League pitching. He is a top prospect but he is still undercooked at the plate, he is on the roster filling in the catching depth chart for the Mets at the moment and will see more seasoning at AAA when Omar Narvaez returns next month.
Play: Joey Lucchesi, Mets bats/stacks, Nationals value bats/stacks vs LHP in small doses
Update Notes: The confirmed Nationals lineup is basically as expected but runs Call-Candelario-Meneses-Ruiz-Thomas-Garrett-Chavis-Robles-CJ Abrams, so all that Jeter Downs talk was for naught. Abrams is similarly unappealing in the role, the re-ordering of hitters has minimal impact on their projections, and the limited righty-lefty contrarian appeal is still in place. The Mets lineup was already confirmed when this was first written.
Kansas City Royals (+177/3.37) @ Minnesota Twins (-195/4.73)
The Royals draw Tyler Mahle tonight in a contest that sees them as the firm underdogs with just a 3.37-run implied team total on the board in Vegas. Kansas City will have to score runs in bunches to keep up with what should be a productive Twins offense tonight, given the starting pitcher the Royals will roll out. Mahle costs $8,000/$8,800 and is a very interesting pitcher in this matchup against a powerful but free-swinging confirmed Royals lineup that does not feature Sal Perez. Mahle has a 25.3% strikeout rate with a 5.7% walk rate over his first 21.2 innings in four starts this season. Last year he had a 25% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate, so the dip in free passes is noteworthy and potentially important if it keeps up. The righty has induced a 10.4% swinging-strike rate with a 28% CSW% which is in line with his previous seasons, and he has allowed an uncomfortable amount of premium contact. Mahle has a 40% hard-hit rate and a 4.60% home run rate in the small sample this year, he gave up a 38.3% hard-hit rate last year while allowing just a 3.18% home run rate on 88.7 mph of average exit velocity. In his best season in 2021, Mahle had a 3.16% home run rate on 33.9% hard hits and an average exit velocity of just 87.8 mph. Despite the handful of home runs he has given up and the increased hard-hit number in the tiny sample, Mahle’s average exit velocity allowed is down even further at just 86.8 mph. If he is able to maintain the improved walk rate while limiting exit velocity and keeping up his strikeouts, Mahle will have a very nice season. Minnesota has prioritized starting pitching analytics and development organizationally, and they seem to be reaping early returns with several of their starters. The Royals lineup loses quality without Perez, but they have playable parts and shots can certainly be fired at Mahle, we have seen that roller coaster before. Bobby Witt Jr. leads off for the Royals tonight, he is slashing .253/.294/.444 with a .192 ISO and a 101 WRC+ for $5,200/$3,200, making him a better buy on the blue site. Vinnie Pasquantino is slashing .284/.376/.500 with a .216 ISO and a 142 WRC+ over 102 plate appearances, he has been the team’s best hitter by a fairly wide margin so far in 2023. After Witt and Pasquantino, no other hitter in the Royals lineup has a current-year WRC+ above the waterline. In fact, none of them are even above the 77 held by MJ Melendez in the third spot in the lineup. Melendez was at a 99 over 534 plate appearances last year, in case the thinking was an unfair sample size early in the year. Across fair samples ranging from Melendez’s 534 to Michael Massey’s 194 plate appearances last year, the same story is true for below-average run creation, not a single hitter in that group got his airway above the waterline. Melendez was closest, and Witt was actually only at a 99 last year as well, while the rest of the lineup had an average WRC+ of 74. Franmil Reyes hits for power but not much else, he has two home runs and a .118 ISO with a 60 WRC+ this season, so the power has also been mostly absent. Kyle Isbel hits fifth but one has to wonder why. Massey slots in sixth in the absence of a better option. Hunter Dozier, Nicky Lopez, and Jackie Bradley Jr. round out the confirmed lineup for Kansas City tonight, this is a very strong opportunity for Mahle shares.
Minnesota was featured in our Power Index tonight in their ideal matchup against this Royals pitcher. The cheap Twins will be at home to face Zack Greinke tonight in what looks like a great spot for both run creation and power. Minnesota’s bats are still at a strong discount on both sites, they make for an excellent value play and combine well with several of the other premium teams, though they are likely to be very popular on a small slate with this matchup. For our younger readers, we promise that there was a time when Greinke was a good pitcher (MadBum too!), but those are long, long since passed. The righty got by on guile and mediocrity for the past few seasons, his fastball and changeup famously have no velocity differential. He had a 17.2% strikeout rate over 171 innings in 2021 and a 12.5% rate in 137 innings last season. Greinke pitched to a 4.54 xFIP under the surface of a 3.68 ERA last year, he had a 4.21 xFIP with a 4.16 ERA the year before and his premium contact profile has gotten worse as the amount of available contact has gone up. Last year, Greinke gave up a 39.6% hard-hit rate but held hitters to just a 2.39% home run rate on 88.9 mph of average exit velocity and a 6.8% barrel rate. The year before he was at similar exit velocities and barrel rates, but his mark for hard hits was better at 35.4%, though he yielded a 4.30% home run rate which is telling for how wonky the category can be in certain samples. This season, Greinke has made five starts and thrown 27.1 innings, pitching to a 16.5% strikeout rate and just a 3.5% walk rate, which has been his one consistently good lingering ability. The veteran’s xFIP is sitting at 4.18 with a 4.61 ERA, he has generated just an 8.4% swinging-strike rate with a 25.4% CSW%, but the contact and power have been a concern for a pitcher who gives up a lot of batted ball events. Greinke has allowed an 8.7% barrel rate with a 41.3% hard-hit rate and 90.8 mph of average exit velocity, all up significantly in the small but growing sample, and he has allowed a 4.35% home run rate for the year so far. After keeping long balls in check against these Twins and the Blue Jays in his first two outings, Greinke allowed two to the Rangers, one to the Braves, and another two to the Angels. In all honesty, it is actually somewhat impressive that the pitcher’s numbers are even this good with that stretch of opponents. The schedule has done him no favors, but if you tipped Greinke upside-down over a glass everything would come out in chunks, this is a pitcher well past his expiration date. Max Kepler slots in with a sturdy left-handed bat for just $3,600/$2,600 atop the projected Minnesota lineup. Kepler has a pair of home runs with a .184 ISO in his 54 plate appearances this season, he hit just nine in a down year last year but had 19 in 490 opportunities in 2021. Kepler has made good contact to start this season, he has a 10% barrel rate and a 42.5% hard-hit and he has always been very good at putting the ball in play and avoiding strikeouts, the lefty has a 7.61 in our home run model. Carlos Correa is too cheap at $4,600/$2,800, as has been noted several times recently, the FanDuel price is laughably low. Correa is slashing just .200/.270/.338 with a .138 ISO and a 71 WRC+ with two home runs, it would be foolish to argue that he has not struggled this season, but this is a well-established All-Star who is not actively injured. Correa created runs 40% better than average with 22 home runs while slashing .291/.366/.467 in 590 plate appearances last year. Unless he is hiding the future injury that other teams were worried about during free agency already this player will eventually hit. Correa is third on the team with a 7.71 in our home run model. Jorge Polanco has been relegated to just second base eligibility on both sites, he checks in for $4,200/$3,400 and has been excellent since coming back to action last week. Polanco is a star in the infield who has power and speed and has been a strong fantasy asset in seasons past. He slipped down the stretch last season while dealing with ongoing knee pain that eventually sidelined him in August and through Spring Training, but he is said to be 100% and is playing like it. Over his 22 plate appearances, he has a home run and is slashing .409/.409/.727 with a .318 ISO and has created runs 120% better than average, again remember the context is only 22 plate appearances, but this is a player who hit 33 home runs and stole 11 bases the last time he was fully healthy. Byron Buxton is the team’s superstar, when he is able to play, but he is not priced like it. $5,200 is a discount on this player on DraftKings, even though the price remains somewhat high overall. $2,900 on FanDuel is stupid. Buxton has hit four home runs while slashing .244/.308/.463 with a .220 ISO and a 114 WRC+ in his 91 plate appearances. He has a 13.2% barrel rate and a 43.4% hard-hit percentage, both of which are good but down from his outstanding 16.4% and 50.2% in a 382 plate appearances sample from last season. Buxton hit 28 home runs in that stretch, he easily has a 40-homer upside if he could ever see 600 plate appearances. This is a smash play at the FanDuel price and a very good one on the other side of town as well, Buxton can be deployed as a one-off and he is a major part of stacking Twins hitters in any configuration. Trevor Larnach is a flawed lefty power hitter with a good contact profile and reasonable MLB DFS appeal. Larnach costs just $3,400/$2,800, the fact that he is within $100 of Buxton and costs the same as Correa highlights the absurdity of where the stars are priced in this lineup. Larnach has hit three home runs with a .160 ISO and a 13.5% barrel rate, he has a 5.36 in our home run model however, as he has never truly put things together at the Major League level in a sustained way. Jose Miranda is a better hitter but he has not been great to start the season. Miranda is slashing .240/.304/.323 with a .083 ISO and an 81 WRC+ with a pair of home runs on the board, he is cheap as a correlation piece late in the lineup. Joey Gallo is the target from the bottom third of the Twins lineup, which should surprise no one who reads this column regularly. Gallo is one of our guys, “bring us your tired, your poor, your Joey Gallos, JD Davises, and Bobby Dalbecs…” The slugger has massive appeal for MLB DFS purposes on any given slate that he is not facing a dominant lefty strikeout artist. Gallo has hit seven home runs in just 49 plate appearances this year, he hit yet another one yesterday and now has a 33.3% barrel rate and a 77.8% hard-hit percentage with a thermonuclear .548 ISO while creating runs 116% better than average in the small sample. The slugger’s flaws are more widely known than his positive attributes, despite his 30% or higher strikeout rates, Gallo has one of the more discerning eyes in baseball and typically posts double-digit walk rates to go with his extreme power. Even in his struggles last season, Gallo maintained a premium contact profile that rivals the best power hitters in the game, including former teammates Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. He had a 17.6% barrel rate and a 50.6% hard-hit rate with 19 home runs despite striking out 39% of the time and slashing .160/.280/.357 with 40,000 tourist Yankees fans booing him every night. If we seem bitter about Gallo’s banishment from the Bronx, you know us well. All of this is to say that Gallo is another smash spot in this Twins lineup against this pitcher, he costs just $4,200/$3,400 despite the early excellence. Christian Vazquez has not hit for much power this season, he had nine home runs in 426 plate appearances last year and just six in 498 opportunities the year before, he is a mix-and-match piece along with Michael A. Taylor from the bottom of the lineup. Taylor has hit four home runs in his 82 plate appearances, he has a .184 ISO and a 14.3% barrel rate, but he has never consistently been that guy at the plate. The Twins are a terrific source of value and MLB DFS point-scoring upside on paper tonight, they will surely be popular around the industry but it is well warranted. Cue the Greinke CGSO.
Play: Twins bats/stacks aggressively, Tyler Mahle aggressively
Update Notes: The Twins will have Buxton leading off, followed by Correa, Polanco, and Larnach, Kepler drops all the way to eighth but remains in the lineup and could be sneaky from that position, where he will have some wraparound appeal. Gallo is hitting sixth behind Miranda with Vazquez seventh and Taylor ninth. The Royals lineup was already confirmed when this was written.
New York Yankees (-164/4.54) @ Texas Rangers (+151/3.55)
The Yankees were the other featured team in tonight’s Power Index, though the spot is tricky because the opposing pitcher is very talented and has a major strikeout upside. The Yankees will be in Texas tonight in the warmest game environment on the board but with only the third-highest implied team total overall. New York will be facing veteran lefty Andrew Heaney, a strong strikeout pitcher who has a track record of coughing up home runs while still pitching well. Heaney made 14 starts and threw 72.2 innings last year, he had a stellar 2.83 xFIP with a 3.10 ERA but allowed a 47.7% hard-hit rate, an 11% barrel rate, and 91.2 mph of average exit velocity that amounted to a 4.52% home run rate. The year before, Heaney was better at limiting premium contact, to a degree, opposing hitters managed a 9.4% barrel rate and a 39.1% hard-hit with 89.3 mph of average exit velocity over Heaney’s 129.2 innings in 23 starts that season, but he still allowed a 5.20% home run rate and pitched to a 4.12 xFIP and 5.83 ERA that year. Heaney has always been good for strikeouts, he had a 26.9% rate in the bumpy 2021 season and was dominant with a 35.5% over his short season in 2022. So far this year, the southpaw has made four starts and covered 18.2 innings, depth is also not this starter’s specialty. He has a 24.7% strikeout rate but an 11.1% walk rate with a 4.91 xFIP and a 1.34 WHIP. The free passes are uncharacteristic and likely just a blip, but Heaney has had bad years for allowing baserunners in the past, his 2021 WHIP was 1.32, for example. Despite a 10% barrel rate allowed in the short sample so far this year, Heaney has yielded just 34% hard hits and 87.4 mph of average exit velocity, and he has just a 2.47% home run rate so far, allowing two long balls in his disastrous 2.2-inning first start of the season against the Orioles and none since. Heaney struck out 10 Royals in five innings in his second start and went back-to-back five-inning starts without allowing a run before giving up two on five hits but no home runs against the Athletics in his last outing. The diminished version of the Yankees lineup still has a good amount of power, particularly on the right side, and their primary lefty has always been a strong contributor against same-handed pitching despite a dip in power output. Rookie leadoff man Anthony Volpe has his on-base percentage up to .358, which is dynamite given his speed on the basepaths. Volpe has stolen eight bases in his 95 plate appearances so far this season and is now slashing .228/.358/.354 with a pair of home runs and a 109 WRC+. The shortstop remains very cheap at $3,800/$2,800, he is an excellent correlation piece with the sluggers who follow in the Yankees lineup and should be fairly popular on the small slate, which does not disqualify him from consideration. Aaron Judge fairly costs $6,300 on DraftKings, his $3,800 on FanDuel is too low. This hitter should never be below the $6,000/$4,000 line, if you see him there just play him as a rule. Judge is slashing .267/.358/.522 with a .256 ISO and six home runs, adding two stolen bases to his tally. The Yankees’ captain has created runs 42% better than average over 106 plate appearances in 2023, he was 107% better than average in his staggering season of 62 home runs just last year. That is a high standard, but Judge’s run creation numbers should push higher as the season continues, and he has a slate-leading 20.03 in tonight’s home run model. Anthony Rizzo is the aforementioned key lefty in this lineup. Rizzo has been excellent since coming to New York, finally giving the Yankees the left-handed power-hitting first baseman that they had lacked through most of the 2010s, and he has had a terrific career with multiple seasons of 30 or more home runs. For his career, Rizzo sees his ISO and triple-slash dip somewhat against same-handed pitching, with a .228 against righties and a .186 against lefties, but while his run creation does dip from a 133 to a 120 WRC+, that is still 20% better than average, which is fine in this lineup for the salary requirement. Rizzo is a key bat who may go under-owned, he costs just $4,400/$3,200 and is in play when stacking Yankees tonight, he remains above the magic number in the home run model at a 13.92. DJ LeMahieu is projected in the cleanup spot tonight, he is a $3,700 third baseman on DraftKings while pulling in eligibility at second, third, and first base on the blue site for just $2,700. In this case, FanDuel simply has not been paying attention to LeMahieu’s return to form, the price and the flexibility are fantastic for a player who is slashing .280/.353/.467 with a 130 WRC+ and a 56.6% hard-hit rate this year. LeMahieu has a .187 ISO that just recently dipped below the .200 line, he has hit two home runs and been a key piece of the puzzle for New York so far, after suffering two down seasons due to lingering injuries. Gleyber Torres has a 10.8% barrel rate on the right side of the plate this season, he has three home runs and five stolen bases and has created runs 40% better than average this season. The second baseman has All-Star caliber talent when he’s going right, he bounced back in a big way last season with 24 home runs and a .194 ISO with a 115 WRC+ over 572 plate appearances and is a great option for production in this spot at just $4,600/$2,900, Torres is the third of three players in the projected lineup with a premium home run mark, sitting at 10.68 in the home run model. And that’s where the good news ends with the projected Yankees lineup. If Kyle Higashioka gets the start, as always, we greatly prefer his bat to that of Jose Trevino, who sees more of the action overall as the better of the two excellent options behind the plate. Higashioka has by far more power than his counterpart and has been a caddy for Yankees starter Gerrit Cole in the past, so he could be in play. The backstop has a 25% barrel rate with a 55% hard-hit rate over his 36 plate appearances, hitting two home runs with a .171 ISO but slashing just .171/.194/.343 with a 44 WRC+ in the tiny sample, and he made excellent premium contact for most of last season. Oswald Peraza is a highly regarded prospect who has seen action in the infield, he costs just $2,600/$2,700 and is another three-position option at second, third, or shortstop on FanDuel, he drops the shortstop eligibility on DraftKings. Between the pricing and flexibility available on the blue site, this is a very interesting lineup for differentiating lineup combinations. Oswaldo Cabrera is a solid utility player who can fit into any position on the diamond, but he is probably miscast as a full-time starter. Cabrera is slashing .216/.244/.297 with a .081 ISO and a 44 WRC+. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected in the ninth spot in the lineup, he is not a very good offensive player, but if he gets on base he could contribute with speed. Kiner-Falefa hit four home runs while slashing .261/.314/.327 with a .066 ISO last year in 531 plate appearances that were entirely designed to sate the morons in the New York area tabloids who were demanding more slap-hitting singles specialists during the 21-22 offseason. Kiner-Falefa has outfield eligibility with shortstop on DraftKings and third base on FanDuel, he is a spare part who checks in for just $2,100 but is an unlikely contributor if he even plays.
The Rangers are facing Gerrit Cole, who is priced as the slate’s best pitcher. Cole checks in at $11,200/$11,600 despite the tough matchup against a good Rangers team, making the spot interesting on both sides. The starter is inarguably one of the best in baseball, he has a 0.79 ERA over 34 innings in five starts so far this year, though we know that his 3.44 xFIP is more telling of the true quality in those outings. Cole has struck out 29.3% with a 12% swinging-strike rate, both of which are down from last year’s 32.4% and 14.3% in the small sample. His CSW% is also down, dropping from 31.9% to 29.1% so far this season, and, while the right-handed ace is yet to allow a home run, he has given up the same level of hard-hits at 40.8%. Cole’s one hiccup most seasons has been the propensity to allow non-painful home runs here and there, he had a 4.16% rate over 200.2 innings on a 39.9% hard-hit and a 9.5% barrel rate last year. Cole has been missing barrels for the most part this season, opposing hitters have just a 3.9% barrel rate but an improved average launch angle against the starter this year. Still, Cole is very much in play, he projects as the third-highest starter despite a tough matchup, and there are plenty of strikeouts to be had in the Rangers’ lineup. Rostering Rangers bats in a contrarian position is a personal choice against Cole, the righty has completely sapped run creation to this point in the season, but there are some excellent bats on Texas that will be under-owned for their general quality tonight. Marcus Semien costs $6,000/$4,100, which is a tough ask against Cole, putting another dent in the idea of Rangers stacks. He has five home runs and three steals with a 133 WRC+ in 111 plate appearances. Robbie Grossman is a correlation player with speed but he has gotten on base at just a .296 clip with no stolen bases over 71 plate appearances. Nathaniel Lowe has three home runs and a 109 WRC+ with a .184 ISO and three home runs, Adolis Garcia follows him with power in the cleanup role. The outfielder has seven home runs with a .275 ISO and a 52.1% hard-hit rate this year. Garcia adds speed, he has just one stolen base this season but swiped 25 bags while hitting 27 home runs last year. Jonah Heim is a hard-hitting cheap catcher, Brad Miller costs just $2,700/$2,600 and has eligibility at second base and shortstop on DraftKings, he is a first baseman on FanDuel which cuts his value somewhat. Ezequiel Duran should be filling in for banged-up Josh Jung, he has good mid-range power and speed but is probably overmatched against Cole. Josh Smith and Leody Taveras round out the lineup with a 95 and a 101 WRC+ as cheap options.
Play: Yankees stacks, Gerrit Cole, some Andrew Heaney, Rangers stacks/bats in small doses
Update Notes: Texas has Sandy Leon in the lineup hitting ninth instead of Brad Miller hitting higher. Leon is a $2,100 catcher but he is not an appealing bat. The lineup is otherwise as expected, with Heim hitting fifth, Duran sliding up to sixth, and Smith-Taveras-Leon from seven through nine. Sorry Higgy fans, Trevino is in the lineup, Kiner-Falefa is hitting seventh and everyone’s favorite Yankees hitter Aaron Hicks steps into the ninth spot in the lineup, with Cabrera taking a seat and Peraza hitting sixth behind the expected top end.
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