A solid-looking eight-game MLB DFS main slate gets underway at 6:35 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel this afternoon. There are several interesting pitching options available, including a pair of talented pitchers against lousy teams who vault to the top of the board and a struggling ace in a brutal matchup. The overall nature of the pitching portion of the slate does seem somewhat thin after the chalky top-end, but there are plenty of viable options for matchup-based value or paying up to differentiate. The slate has a few strong spots for power as well, with some of the best home run-hitting teams facing probable pushovers on the mound. This should be another day where bats win the slate, but there is an abundance of value, particularly on DraftKings, so it may not be necessary to take too big a dip into the bargain bin on the mound either.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 4/26/23
Los Angeles Dodgers (-140/4.64) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+129/3.95)
The Dodgers and Pirates get the slate underway from Pittsburgh with Roansy Contreras taking the mound for the home team. Contreras made 18 starts last season and pitched to a 4.48 xFIP with a 21.1% strikeout rate and a very strong 12.7% swinging-strike rate. The righty has started four times this year and he has a 20.2% strikeout rate with a 4.92 xFIP but a dip in his swinging strikes to 9.7%, though he is yet to yield a home run and has allowed just a 35.9% hard-hit rate in the small sample. At $5,700/$7,400 there is minor potential in Contreras, but it seems unlikely that he will pay it off against a stout Dodgers team, even with it missing parts. As a side note, it seems that the Dodgers had a very fun All-Star break in 2022, as now five different players from that team have gone on paternity leave in the past 10 days. The Los Angeles projected lineup includes superstar Mookie Betts in the leadoff role, Betts has three home runs and is creating runs 27% better than average across 98 plate appearances this season and he seems cheap for him at $5,200/$3,600. Betts now has second base eligibility to go with his outfield positioning on both sites as well, making him an even more valuable dynamic play. Freddie Freeman has three home runs and a .151 ISO with a 124 WRC+ over 108 opportunities this year, with his triple-slash dropping to .280/.370/.430 so far. Those are still very good numbers, but Freeman posted an excellent .325/.407/.511 last year while creating runs 57% above average, so there is a very high standard. The first baseman costs $5,100/$3,500, again maybe a bit cheap for his skills? Jason Heyward is slotted into the third spot in a version of the projected lineup, but he could easily slide down the batting order. Heyward is a lefty bat who would be sliding up the lineup in the absence of Max Muncy, who is still out on paternity leave, the outfielder costs $2,400/$2,600 and has three home runs with a .244 ISO but has been 14% worse than average for run creation in his part-time role so far this year. J.D. Martinez has four home runs and a .284 ISO with a 123 WRC+ and is showing signs that his power may not be as diminished as we thought. Martinez has a sharp 15% barrel rate and a 48.3% hard-hit percentage for the season, and his excellent ISO far surpasses the .174 that he posted with 16 home runs over 596 plate appearances last year. James Outman is another lefty in the lineup, he has flashed significant early power with seven home runs and a .392 ISO over just 83 plate appearances yet still costs $4,000 on DraftKings. He is more fairly priced on FanDuel, but $3,400 still seems potentially low for this hitter. Outman has a 20.4% barrel rate and a 42.6% hard-hit mark in the small sample. Miguel Vargas, David Peralta, Michael Busch, and Austin Barnes round out the projected lineup. Barnes is a cheap catcher play who created runs four percent better than average in 212 plate appearances last year but has been largely inept in early returns in 2023. Busch has four plate appearances in the Show so far, Peralta is a weathered veteran slashing just .189/.214/.264 over 56 plate appearances, and Vargas is a cheap second baseman who has been five percent above average for run creation but done little else to this point in the season.
The Dodgers get righty Tony Gonsolin back for his season debut tonight after he opened the year on the Injured List. Gonsolin is a fairly reliable somewhat above-average starter when healthy. He made 24 starts last season, throwing 130.1 innings and reaching a 23.9% strikeout rate with a 3.70 xFIP, but he will be limited to around four innings in this first start of the season, which takes him off the board at $7,000/$9,000. The matchup against the Pirates is a good one, but it seems unlikely that the starter will reach his required value points in such a short outing, even where quality starts are not relevant. Gonsolin is facing a Pirates lineup carrying just a 3.95-run implied team total and he should be able to keep them in check before handing off to the capable Dodgers bullpen. The Pirates have been frisky to start the year, they have six players in the projected starting lineup who are above average for run creation in the first portion of the season. Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to leadoff, he is not one of the players on that productive list, but he is in play for correlation if going to Pirates bats. Hayes is slashing .237/.287/.387 with a WRC+ 19% below average over 101 opportunities this season. Tucupita Marcano has made just 24 plate appearances this year but he has been productive with a 133 WRC+ and he is projected to hit second for $2,200/$2,000. Marcano made 177 plate appearances last year, hitting two home runs and stealing two bases but producing a 57 WRC+ and a .100 ISO, so buyers be very aware. Andrew McCutchen has been excellent to start the season, he will be hitting third with Bryan Reynolds still out of the lineup. McCutchen is slashing .270/.371/.527 with five home runs and a 141 WRC+. Carlos Santana has hit just two home runs but he has been productive with a 108 WRC+ and he is not correctly priced for his power potential in this matchup. Jack Suwinski has the team’s best contact profile, he is carrying a 21.6% barrel rate and a 51.4% hard-hit percentage over his first 65 plate appearances, with five home runs on the board so far. The outfielder had a 12.2% barrel rate and hit 19 home runs in just 372 tries last season, the power is real but there are definite holes in the swing as well. Connor Joe has been a strong acquisition for the Pirates and has gone somewhat under the radar for MLB DFS. Joe has two homers and a stolen base and he is slashing .328/.423/.590 with a .262 ISO over 71 opportunities. Last season, with the Rockies, Joe made 467 plate appearances and hit seven home runs, so again the early small sample results should be taken in context. Rodolfo Castro is a decent cheap bat late, he has made outstanding contact to start the season when he connects, posting a 14% barrel rate and 48.8% hard hits over his 73 plate appearances, Ji-Hwan Bae has created runs 26% worse than average and Austin Hedges ends the lineup at a 36 WRC+ with very minimal value as a catcher. Despite the limited time on the mound for the opposing starter, this does not seem like the best spot to get carried away with Pirates stacks.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, minor shares of top Pirates bats
Update Notes: the Dodgers lineup sees a bit of a shakeup, Betts-Freeman-Heyward is intact at the top but Martinez is getting a day off with Outman landing in the cleanup spot, and a back end of Vargas-Busch-Chris Taylor-Peralta-Austin Wynns, this is not the best version of the Los Angeles lineup, downgrade to Dodgers bats/stacks, minor bump to Contreras.
Houston Astros (+105/4.19) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-113/4.39)
A fantastic American League matchup between the Astros and Rays sees the visiting Houston squad facing a multi-inning opener in Calvin Faucher, who has 10.2 innings pitched with two appearances as an opener so far this year. Faucher has an 18.8% strikeout rate and has allowed 44.4% hard hits and a 13.9% barrel rate, he is not a lights-out arm to open the game, he gave the Rays 2.2 innings in his first appearance as an opener and 2.0 in the second, but he was charged with an earned run and struck out just two in the first outing, then allowed three earned runs with three strikeouts in the second. Faucher leads into a strong Rays bullpen and the Astros will be without superstar Yordan Alvarez, but this looks like a spot in which the Houston lineup is the more playable of the two sides. Targeting opener games when the opposing team has a good bullpen is not the best approach in most cases, but these Astros are good enough to warrant at least a portion of shares. Mauricio Dubon is slated to leadoff, he has two stolen bases while slashing .329/.348/.424 with a 116 WRC+ while filling in for Jose Altuve. Dubon costs $3,400/$2,900, he is a good correlation piece but not much of a major individual contributor for MLB DFS. Jeremy Pena is down at just .229/.295/.427 with four home runs and a solid .198 ISO to go with his 102 WRC+. Pena was better last year and is a value piece at $4,200/$3,200. Lefty star Kyle Tucker slots into the third spot in the lineup in the absence of Alvarez. Tucker is slashing a robust .301/.412/.518 with a .217 ISO and a 159 WRC+. The outfielder has hit five home runs and stolen five bases while posting an 11.4% barrel rate and a 47.1% hard-hit rate, he is always in play and could easily produce counting stats in this matchup. Tucker is our home run pick from the Astros with a team-leading 13.25 in the home run model. Jose Abreu is still not on the board for home runs this year and is now slashing .250/.286/.290 with a .040 ISO and a 60 WRC+, this is still not concerning, the 105 plate appearances are an extended slump but Abreu has more than earned faith in his abilities and should figure things out. Meanwhile, he is priced down to just $3,500/$2,500, so gamers can buy an elite bat in the bargain bin if going to Astros. Corey Julks is slashing .317/.323/.476 with a .159 ISO and two home runs. The rookie has created runs 20% better than average over 65 plate appearances and has a respectable 44.4% hard-hit rate despite just a 4.4% barrel rate. Julks is a viable option for minor shares at his cheap price tag. Jake Meyers can ruin a slate at low ownership from time to time, but there is not much to love in the full picture. Meyers is slashing .302/.373/.415 with one home run and a 126 WRC+, he has been good and comes cheap, but this is a player who slashed .227/.269/.313 with a 65 WRC+ and a .087 ISO in 160 tries last year but was somewhat better with six homers and a 111 WRC+ over 163 opportunities in 2021. David Hensley has a 21 WRC+ and a .000 ISO over 56 plate appearances, Martin Maldonado is the better bat at the bottom of the lineup, and he is not a good hitter. Maldonado is a cheap catcher who hit 15 home runs in 379 plate appearances last year though, which keeps him on the board where the position is needed.
The loaded and rolling Rays are all priced up for how good they have been all season. Everyone in the projected Tampa Bay lineup has been well above average for run creation so far this season, and they are facing a rookie starter. Hunter Brown has been good over his first four outings this year, he has a 3.91 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP while striking out 24.7% and not giving up any home runs. Brown is one of the most highly regarded rookie pitchers in baseball, he costs $9,000/$9,500 from site to site, which is justifiable for his talent and results so far, but seems like a tough ask against the elite Rays. Brown is not off the table, in fact, he could be a strong low-owned tournament option with heavy risk, which could lead to a compelling both-sides approach across different lineups. The projected Rays batting order has created runs at an average pace of 79% above the league average so far this season and they have an unfathomable .293 average ISO. There is not a single player below the league average represented by an even 100 WRC+, the lowest mark comes from one of the team’s best hitters at a staggering 143. There is only one tiny sample, Jose Siri has made only 27 plate appearances, he has a 161 WRC+ and is a contributor for power and speed potential late in the lineup for just $2,700/$3,200. Siri is an excellent way to offset the costs and the popularity of stacking Rays above him in the batting order, he could slip past the public to some degree. The top of the lineup opens with the excellent Yandy Diaz, who is priced up to $5,200/$3,600 with eligibility at first and third base on the blue site. Diaz is slashing .313/.408/.566 with a .253 ISO and a 177 WRC+, he is a terrific correlated scoring piece to go with stars after him in the lineup and he has been mashing all on his own with six home runs on the board. Wander Franco is slashing .315/.382/.576 with four home runs and five steals, posting a .261 ISO and a 170 WRC+. Randy Arozarena has been one of the best players in baseball over his 102 plate appearances this year. The outfielder is justifiably priced among the game’s best at $6,200/$4,400. Arozarena has a terrific 16.9% barrel rate and a 59.2% hard-hit percentage that has translated to a .348/.412/.584 triple-slash with a .236 ISO and he has been 82% better than average in creating runs. Brandon Lowe is the team’s low man with that 143 WRC+ that would make him the best run-creator on many teams in baseball. Lowe is the team’s best power hitter and the best power-hitting second baseman in baseball, if not counting Mookie Betts. This season he is slashing .235/.342/.515 with six home runs and a .279 ISO while posting a stupendous 26.2% barrel rate and a 54.8% hard-hit mark. Lowe is our home run pick from the Rays with a team-leading 12.17 in the home run model. Harold Ramirez is another excellent bat in the heart of the order, he is slashing .371/.435/.710 with a monstrous .339 ISO and a 222 WRC+ over his 69 opportunities, he hits ahead of Josh Lowe who has created runs 80% better than average during a minor breakout. Lowe has four home runs and four stolen bases while slashing .328/.368/.625 with a .297 ISO. Did we mention that this is a very very good baseball team? Siri slots into the seventh spot in the projected lineup, if he is in the Rays’ lineup he can be in yours. Taylor Walls and Christian Bethancourt could be written off at the bottom of the lineup if they weren’t so damn productive. Walls is slashing .333/.434/.644 with a .311 ISO and has created runs 104% better than average in his 53 opportunities this year but has never produced at that level in an extended sample. Bethancourt has hit four home runs and has a 170 WRC+ to go with a 19.4% barrel rate and a 61.1% hard-hit percentage. The backstop had an 11.7% barrel rate and a 44.4% hard-hit last year in hitting 11 home runs over 333 plate appearances, there is good evidence that Bethancourt is an underappreciated catcher option at $3,900/$3,300. This is a challenging spot for Hunter Brown and for the Rays lineup, rostering both sides is in play, but if one had to choose it would be best to side with the Rays’ offense.
Play: Rays stacks/bats, Astros stacks/bats, Hunter Brown with risk if low-owned around the industry
Update Notes: the Astros lineup is mostly as expected, with Dubon-Pena-Tucker-Alex Bregman-Abreu-Julks-Meyers-Hensley-Yainer Diaz, the last of whom drops Maldonado from the list of cheap catchers. The Rays lineup runs Diaz-Franco-Arozarena-B.Lowe-Ramirez-Bethancourt-Walls-Siri-Margot, giving a bit of a bump to Bethancourt as a viable catcher, removing Josh Lowe from play and putting Margot in as yet another interesting Rays bat, though one that is actually below average for run creation.
Seattle Mariners (-111/4.37) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+103/4.21)
The Mariners are facing Taijuan Walker, a veteran righty with a 19.1% strikeout rate and a 4.53 xFIP over 21.1 innings in four starts this season. The average output to this point is about right for Walker, he has never been outstanding but he has not been truly terrible either, he is merely a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter at this point in his career. As that, against a great Mariners lineup, it seems difficult to justify too many Walker shares at his $9,200 DraftKings price. For $7,700 on FanDuel, a few darts may be in order, but this is not a great option. Walker projects in the lower third of our pitching board this evening while the Mariners are looking like a good opportunity to grab quality hitters in bunches. Seattle’s top-6 was showing a good power mark that landed fourth overall on the Power Index, while the bottom third of the lineup falls off somewhat. Julio Rodriguez costs $5,800/$3,800, he is too cheap on the blue site. Last year’s Rookie of the Year in the American League is slashing just .235/.299/.429 to start this season but he has made respectable contact and has four home runs and five steals with a 107 WRC+ so far. Rodriguez is exactly at the magic number of 10.0 in our home run model this evening, leading the team. Ty France is slashing .278/.365/.411 with a 127 WRC+ as a good correlated scoring option for Seattle stackers. The first baseman costs $4,700/$3,200 and is typically under-owned in Seattle stacks. France hit 20 home runs and created runs 27% better than average last year, he is a good bat for a good price. Eugenio Suarez has made 100 plate appearances and has just two home runs, but he is slashing .261/.340/.375 with a 109 WRC+ in a “total protonic reversal” of his typical skillset (Editor’s Note: per Egon Spengler, a total protonic reversal is a case of “all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light” so this claim may be inaccurate). Suarez hit 31 home runs last year while slashing .236/.332/.459, based on his still high 30% strikeout rate, he will likely return to that form over a longer sample, one simply has to hope the power returns at the same time. Suarez is cheap at $3,900/$2,800, he is a strong power play in this lineup. Cal Raleigh has an 8.39 in the home run model tonight, he has barreled the ball at a 12.8% clip this year, he was at 15.4% in hitting 27 home runs in just 417 plate appearances last year. The switch-hitting catcher should be in the heart of the order for $4,000/$2,700 and he was our Mariners’ home run pick for the day, he is a solid investment where the position is necessary and is in play where it is not a requirement. Teoscar Hernandez and Jarred Kelenic make a strong righty-lefty power duo in the fifth and sixth spots in the lineup. Hernandez has six home runs and Kelenic leads the team with seven, delivering on both his prospect pedigree and strong Spring over his first 81 plate appearances. Kelenic has been outstanding at the plate, he is slashing .342/.395/.726 with a 210 WRC+, a 16.7% barrel rate, and a 59.3% hard-hit rate; and you gave up on him in that dynasty league! AJ Pollock, Kolten Wong, and JP Crawford round out the lineup with lower-end power projections, but Pollock and Wong are capable playable veterans.
The Phillies will be facing Logan Gilbert who checks into the night at $9,100/$10,000 which feels light for a pitcher with a current-year strikeout rate of 31.1% over his four starts and 22.2 innings. Gilbert has been sharp, pitching to a 2.92 xFIP with a 1.01 WHIP, a 10.6% swinging-strike rate, and a 5.2% barrel rate allowed. The righty struck out 22.7% over 185.2 innings last year with a 3.78 xFIP and a 3.20 ERA, he seems to have taken another step but it is still early in 2023. Gilbert is playable on both sites and he could be lower-owned than he should be across MLB DFS with the Phillies on the other side of the equation. Gilbert projects just in the upper-middle of the board for the matchup, but he can deliver tournament-winning upside, giving him major value if he is projected to be lower-owned than lesser starters on the slate. The Phillies can be rostered as a both-sided approach as well. Bryson Stott has created runs 25% better than average in earning the leadoff role this year. Stott has two home runs and three stolen bases and he is getting on at a .362 clip, making him a strong correlation play. Trea Turner has hit two home runs while slashing .282/.327/.417 but his run creation is two percent below average coming into the night, a number that will change quickly. Turner is a pay-up option at $6,100/$3,500, he seems like a better blue site buy. Kyle Schwarber has a team-leading 10.27 in the home run model, it is difficult to push Schwarber below a 10 in most matchups, but he has just five long balls on the year and is slashing .204/.320/.420 with a .216 ISO. Nick Castellanos has found two home runs since we last discussed him, he has been back to form this season, slashing .315/.382/.489 with the pair of home runs, plenty of doubles, and a 138 WRC+ over 102 plate appearances. Brandon Marsh costs $4,700/$3,600, he has been a productive hitter who has created runs 109% better than average in his 81 opportunities this year. Marsh has four home runs and has posted a 12.8% barrel rate with a 44.7% hard-hit percentage. The outfielder is in play and could be lower-owned for the hefty asking price on FanDuel, where the public would likely select Castellanos at a $300 discount when choosing between the two outfielders as a last-man-in. JT Realmuto is slashing .247/.279/.420 and has struggled to find his form so far this year, there is plenty of time for a turnaround and Realmuto is cheap at $2,900 on FanDuel. He maintains a healthy $5,200 price tag on DraftKings where catchers are more important. Alec Bohm is the last truly interesting name, he has made 100 plate appearances and created runs 27% better than average with three home runs so far this year. Bohm has a 48.6% hard-hit rate for the season, he is affordable for his talent and has multi-position eligibility on FanDuel. Jake Cave and Edmundo Sosa are replacement parts at the bottom of the lineup, but Sosa has been very good in the limited 48 plate appearances so far, slashing .311/.333/.578 with a .267 ISO and three home runs.
Play: Mariners stacks/bats, Logan Gilbert, Phillies bats in smaller doses
Update Notes: both lineups are confirmed in their anticipated forms.
Washington Nationals (+181/3.56) @ New York Mets (-200/5.05)
The Nationals’ pitcher spoiled our Mets’ fun last night, it is officially time to re-evaluate Josiah Gray as a power target after another serviceable outing. Washington put up a handful of runs in the shutout last night, but their lineup remains a low-end option against a (probably) good pitcher in Kodai Senga tonight. The Ghost has produced mixed results so far, posting a 4.23 xFIP with a 26.6% strikeout rate over his first four starts and 21 innings. Senga has walked too many at a whopping 14.9% and his 1.52 WHIP is unsustainable, as is the 5.32% home run rate he has allowed on the back of a 9.1% barrel rate and 41.8% hard hits. Still, Senga projects very well against a largely inept Nationals team. The righty costs $10,600/$10,400, it is odd that he is at a lower price on FanDuel, he makes a strong play on both sites as a primary pitching focus and leads our pitching projections for the night. Senga seems like a better buy than paying up $500 more for Bryce Elder, or $200 less for Anthony DeSclafani, for example. The Nationals lineup is not a strong play, though Keibert Ruiz bounced above the waterline for run creation after homering (as our home run pick from this team) in last night’s game. The catcher is a playable piece at $2,700 if one is inclined to one-off cheap catchers on DraftKings, he has a quality stick behind the plate and is slashing .288/.350/.425 with two home runs in 80 opportunities. Ruiz is playable, as is Joey Meneses, who leads the Nationals projected lineup with an 11.14 in our home run model, but he has yet to produce power this season with just one home run and a lowly .100 ISO. Alex Call, Luis Garcia, and Jeimer Candelario are projected in the top three spots, they have an average of a 79 WRC+. Dominic Smith, Lane Thomas, and CJ Abrams run from 6-8 in the lineup, they have an average WRC+ of 70 with a combined one home run and a .062 ISO. Victor Robles has four stolen bases and a 108 ISO while getting on base at a .373 clip, he would be a good wraparound play on a better team, on this team he is a “wraparound to what?” player who is not overly viable as a one-off.
After disappointing in the game against Gray last night, the Mets draw lefty MacKenzie Gore in tonight’s contest. Gore has a 29.1% strikeout rate and a 16.3% walk rate over his four starts and 21 innings, putting him in a similar quality range to Senga but with a much tougher matchup. The lefty has a 3.93 xFIP and a 3.43 ERA, and he has been fairly good at keeping the ball down with just a 4.3% barrel rate and a 7.4-degree average launch angle allowed, adding up to a 2.33% home run rate. Gore costs just $7,500 and is in play for low-expectation SP2 shares on DraftKings, he is a tougher ask for $9,700 because of the matchup on FanDuel, but he will likely be lower-owned than some of the competition, and as we just saw this team can be overcome by a degree of talent on the mound. Still, the Mets hitters are too appealing to be ignored. The team is very good for sequencing and run creation, they have an average WRC+ of 130 across the top five projected hitters and a monster lurking in the middle of the lineup with powerful Pete Alonso who already has 10 home runs this season. Brandon Nimmo leads off as one of the best-correlated scoring pieces in MLB DFS. Nimmo is slashing .349/.456/.494 with a 170 WRC+ over 104 opportunities. Mark Canha is projected to slide into the second spot in the lineup with Starling Marte out, Canha has created runs nine percent better than average over 89 plate appearances in 2023, he was at a 128 WRC+ in 542 opportunities last year. Canha is in play for correlated scoring and has minor individual appeal, he is also cheap at $3,100/$2,800. Francisco Lindor is a great shortstop option who has hit four home runs and has a 120 WRC+ with a .233 ISO. Lindor hit 26 home runs and stole 16 bases last season, he is a star player who is too cheap at $4,800/$3,800 hitting ahead of Alonso. The slugging first baseman costs $5,900/$4,200, he and Lindor are an affordable pairing in the heart of the lineup. Tommy Pham has a 98 WRC+ over 47 plate appearances, he has limited appeal and mid-range power in minor spurts. Jeff McNeil is a hit tool specialist who is slashing .282/.402/.388 with a 132 WRC+ but he is a correlation player with not much behind him in the lineup, putting his value for MLB DFS scoring somewhat in question. McNeil hits in front of Eduardo Escobar who has respectable power but has been limited to just 60 plate appearances over which he has two home runs and a .145/.186/.291 triple-slash. Brett Baty is a prized rookie struggling to find his true form over his first 25 plate appearances, Baty will almost certainly hit in a matter of time, but right now he is not the best play outside of a cost-offsetting option from late in the lineup. Tomas Nido is a defensive catcher.
Play: Kodai Senga, Mets stacks/bats, some MacK Gore on DraftKings for price and FanDuel for low ownership
Update Notes: the Nationals lineup was as expected, Starling Marte is in fact playing and hitting in his usual second spot in the Mets’ confirmed lineup, giving a further bump to Mets bats, Canha returns to the fifth spot in the lineup and Baty is taking a seat for tonight.
Miami Marlins (+132/3.69) @ Atlanta Braves (-143/4.39)
Miami is in town to face the Braves and upstart pitcher Bryce Elder whose own mother would probably never have imagined him landing at a slate-leading $10,900 price tag on FanDuel or even $9,400 on DraftKings, but Elder has earned the price. The righty has made four starts and thrown 23.2 innings so far in 2023. He has a 3.53 xFIP and a 1.14 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate while not allowing any home runs to this point. Opposing hitters have managed just a 4.7% barrel rate on an 8.3-degree average launch angle so far, but Elder has allowed plenty of pop at the plate when hitters do connect, giving up a 53.1% hard-hit rate and a 92.3 mph average exit velocity, a better trajectory from the hitter could make the ball sail, though the Marlins have limited options for power. Elder seems like a viable option, he will not be the first pitcher to dominate the lousy Miami lineup, but there are noteworthy cracks in the armor when it comes to the premium contact, those marks are up from a more sensible 34.4% hard-hit rate and 88.2 mph of average exit velocity in 54 innings and nine starts last year, so there is some cause for thought about the hard hits when paying this price for this pitcher. The matchup probably outweighs everything, and Elder will probably succeed, but the Marlins will probably have very limited ownership. Miami is a weak squad with a top-heavy lineup that still only lands as a middling option. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has four home runs and seven stolen bases in 94 plate appearances, which is good because the MLB The Show ’23 cover-man is slashing just .218/.269/.391 with an 81 WRC+ to this point. Chisholm is too talented to stay at that level for too long, he has struck out at a whopping 38.3% rate so far this year, when that number returns to the still-high 27.4% he posted last year the hits should come. Garrett Cooper has three home runs and a 105 WRC+ but just a .154 ISO, he is fine in stacks but not a target overall or as a one-off. Luis Arraez is a fantastic hitter but he offers little in the way of home run upside. Arraez’s .139 ISO and lone home run make sense with his 4.4% barrel rate, but he is putting the ball in play and slashing .444/.506/.583 while creating runs 100% better than average in front of masher Jorge Soler. At $4,300/$3,000 and $4,600/$3,000, Arraez and Soler are a duo that should not be left out of stacks if taking that angle into the slate. Soler has five home runs and a .291 ISO with a 137 WRC+ this season. Bryan De La Cruz is slashing .295/.341/.436 with a 114 WRC+ as the last appealing bat in the lineup. Avisail Garcia and Jean Segura have contributed nothing, they have a 30 and a 19 WRC+, joining Jacob Stallings at 22 and Jon Berti at 75 as weak late lineup options. Garcia and Segura should hit somewhat better over the long haul, but there is not much to like, Berti at least has speed and can wraparound if needed.
The Braves loaded lineup is facing last year’s National League Cy Young Award winner, Sandy Alcantara who has struggled mightily so far this season. The righty has made four starts and thrown 24.2 innings, posting just a 19.8% strikeout rate with a 4.04 xFIP and a 5.47 ERA. Alcantara has actually bumped his swinging-strike rate from last year’s 12.2% to 13.7% and his walk rate and contact profile are similar to last year’s excellent season, but the overall strikeouts are down, and opposing production has been up. Alcantara struck out nine Diamondbacks but allowed three earned runs in his last outing, his ugliest start came the game before against the Phillies, he lasted just four innings and gave up nine earned runs while striking out just four, but his 4.06 xFIP for the game was just slightly better than his 20.25 ERA. A complete game five-strikeout start against the Twins followed a light first outing of the year, so there could simply be statistical noise in the sample, which is supported by the xFIP sitting almost 1.5 runs lower than the ERA so far this year. The Braves are a tough matchup, but there are plenty of strikeouts and Alcantara has a chance to pitch deep into the game, as is his wont, for a discounted $9,900/$9,800. With value available, the righty is worth some shares on this slate, regardless of the matchup. The Braves lineup can be rostered as well, the both-sides approach is viable here, but there is enough healthy respect on this end of the internet to still call this a downgraded opportunity for the elite Atlanta bats. Ronald Acuna Jr. is expensive for facing this pitcher, but he has done nothing but produce this season. Acuna is up to 13 stolen bases to go with his three home runs and 170 WRC+ in 113 plate appearances. Matt Olson has a .283 ISO on the left side of the plate, he can get into one against any starter in baseball, which is true of Austin Riley from the right side. Riley has five home runs and a .202 ISO and has created runs 27% better than average. Sean Murphy has barreled the ball at a 22.9% clip with a 43.8% hard-hit rate over 86 plate appearances with six home runs, a .362 ISO, and a 180 WRC+ so far this year, he is an excellent catcher for $4,900 on DraftKings but the matchup is brutal. Eddie Rosario came to life for a moment earlier in the week, he has three home runs this season and is cheap, Ozzie Albies hit another two home runs and now has seven on the season, he is a strong option at second base for correlated and individual scoring at $4,500/$3,000, Albies is too cheap by a lot on both sites. Vaugh Grissom, struggling Marcell Ozuna, and Sam Hilliard round out the projected batting order, the lefty Hilliard is our favorite option from that group, he has been featured in this space since his callup and has delivered low-owned cheap returns while slashing .327/.400/.592 with a .265 ISO and a 166 WRC+, hitting three home runs and swiping four bases along the way. Hilliard is going to lose his regular role when Michael Harris comes back and he is not a viable long-term pickup in redraft leagues, but he is a good tournament piece when rostering Braves hitters in stacks in a bad spot.
Play: Sandy Alcantara and Bryce Elder as desired with Elder at a high price in a good spot and Sandy at a low price in a bad spot. Minor shares of Braves bats, minor shares of contrarian Marlins bats
Update Notes: the Marlins have Garrett Hampson hitting ninth with Berti sliding up to seventh, in a twist they have Soler hitting third and Arraez in the cleanup role, because this team defies all logic and reason at times. Jesus Sanchez is a cheap bat with the notion of power upside but not the reality. The Braves landed as expected.
San Diego Padres (-106/4.06) @ Chicago Cubs (-102/4.02)
San Diego’s top-heavy lineup will be facing lefty Drew Smyly tonight, which is doing good things for the hitter projections atop the lineup. Smyly has made four starts and has a 25.6% strikeout rate with a 4.24 xFIP and a sterling .091 WHIP so far this year, and he has allowed just 82.4 mph of average exit velocity with a 3.3% barrel rate but a 22.3-degree average launch angle. If the Padres can find their hard-hitting bats they could put a number on Smyly tonight, but he has been good at inducing weak fly balls and the wind is blowing in. Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts are the fixtures and primary plays in the Padres’ projected lineup. The group is priced down on FanDuel because Soto and Machado have not been themselves to this point and Tatis has missed time. Getting these four players for just $13,300 on the blue site is a bargain against any starter, but they could be very popular in this spot. The group is more expensive relatively on the DraftKings slate, but they would be in play if they do not land as a wildly popular option. Beyond the group of stars, Nelson Cruz and Jake Cronenworth are the primary focus, Cruz has been a middling option so far, he has two home runs and a .176 ISO with a 93 WRC+, Cronenworth is an inexpensive reliable infield bat who has created runs four percent better than average this year but has only mid-range appeal when it comes to counting stats. Ha-Seong Kim, Austin Nola, and Jose Azocar are all less desirable options from the bottom of the lineup, with Kim probably being the top option despite a 71 WRC+ this year. Kim had a 105 mark for run creation last season, stealing 12 bases and hitting 11 home runs in his 582 plate appearances. The Padres are an interesting inflection point on this slate, if the top end delivers they could be slate-winning, but if Smyly keeps the trend of weak contact rolling they could bend the slate against public ownership.
The Cubs will be facing Michael Wacha this evening, a spot that should benefit their bats at good prices in a game at Wrigley Field. Chicago’s lineup has been surprisingly good this year, they are well-equipped for power and speed and have a strong lefty-righty mix up and down the batting order. Wacha is a veteran righty who has been good in stretches of his career but is overall decidedly average, still, we have all rostered Cubs bats in seemingly good spots and come away empty-handed in situations just like this in the past, which is both a buyer-beware note and potentially one that could lead to lower public ownership. Wacha has made four starts this season, throwing 20.1 innings and pitching to a 4.70 xFIP and a 7.08 ERA. He has allowed three early home runs, amounting to a 3.23% home run rate, he was at a 3.50% mark over 127.1 innings last year. Wacha is allowing more barrels and more hard hits with an average exit velocity up from 88.2 to 89.2 mph, hard hits jumping from 35.4% to 39.1%, and barrels exploding from 9.6% to 13% in the tiny sample. So far this season Wacha has been targetable, which is a step down from average, even if he finds form the Cubs will have a shot to get to him for run creation and power upside. Nico Hoerner costs $4,200/$3,700, he is clearly another player viewed differently from site to site tonight. The second baseman is slashing .347/.390/.480 with a .133 ISO and a 140 WRC+, hitting two home runs and stealing nine bases in 105 plate appearances this season. He hit 10 homers and stole 20 bags in 517 opportunities last year. It seems like FanDuel has the correct relative price tier on the excellent correlated scoring and speed option in the leadoff role. Dansby Swanson hit 25 home runs last year and 27 the year before, he has zero over 97 plate appearances this season and has just an 8.8% barrel rate and a 36.8% hard-hit percentage for the small sample, bother numbers are down from his typical production but can improve in a hurry. Swanson is still well above average for run creation at a 117 WRC+ and he is slashing .288/.412/.325 with an 8.90 in our home run model today, he is very much in play for $5,000/$3,100. Ian Happ has a 10.5% barrel rate and two home runs in 95 plate appearances over which he has posted a .192 ISO and a 148 WRC+. Happ is a very good player, he hit 17 home runs and created runs 20% better than average over 641 tries last year and has a rock-solid bat with an 8.60 in our home run model tonight. Seiya Suzuki and Patrick Wisdom are the two players in the projected Cubs lineup who land over our “magic number” sitting at 10.37 and 10.39 in the home run model respectively. Both sluggers hit from the right side of the plate, but they should be able to generate power against Wacha, Wisdom is particularly interesting, he has nine home runs and a massive .413 ISO so far this year, posting a 22% barrel rate and a 58% hard-hit percentage over his 88 plate appearances, yet he is priced at just $4,400 on DraftKings. Wisdom is a $4,300 FanDuel player, putting him several hundred above his highest-priced teammates on the sharper of the two MLB DFS sites. Eric Hosmer is projected to hit between Suzuki and Wisdom. Hosmer is slashing .224/.286/.328 and not doing much for power in his part-time role, he is a playable piece in stacks in small doses but he is not an overly interesting one-off or a priority play. Edwin Rios and Trey Mancini offer pop from the bottom of the lineup, the left-handed Rios has made just 20 plate appearances this year, last year he hit seven home runs in just 92 opportunities, he has one to go with his 11.1% barrel rate in the microscopic current-year sample. Mancini has scuffled but maintains his track-record-based value of $2,600/$2,700. Tucker Barnhart slots in as a moderately playable catcher but the output has not been there for several seasons. In 308 opportunities last year, Barnhart hit one home run and created runs 37% below average.
Play: the Padres lineup is confirmed in its projected form, the Cubs have Mancini hitting fifth between Suzuki and Hosmer, with Yan Gomes and Nelson Velasquez in the final two spots instead of Rios and Barnhart; the Cubs’ key bats remain intact.
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+203/3.83) @ Los Angeles Angels (-224/5.79)
Southpaw Patrick Sandoval draws the Athletics tonight in an ongoing hot spot for MLB DFS pitching production on the mound that should be in play all season. Sandoval needs a good get-right spot, he has just a 17.6% strikeout rate and a 4.84 xFIP over 18.2 innings in four starts this season. The lefty has induced a healthy 11.9% swinging-strike rate, but that is down from last year’s 13.3% and his overall strikeouts have plummeted from the sturdy 23.7% he had last year. Still, the starter has been excellent at limiting premium contact, opposing hitters have just a 27.6% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 86.5 mph against Sandoval this year, with the weak opposing lineup he should have an opportunity to find a few strikeouts while keeping clean innings rolling in a deep start that sees him chase both the win and quality start. Athletics hitters have been more frisky than expected in small samples, but they have not earned faith in this space and remain a target for pitching. Brent Rooker has six home runs and a 220 WRC+ with an absurd .392 ISO so far this year and he has struck out at just a 19% clip, which is a massive improvement from anything he has ever done at any level of professional baseball, it seems unsustainable but warrants watching. Rooker costs $3,600/$3,300, he has a 6.17 in our home run model and is potentially a one-off consideration for price. The lineup starts with Esteury Ruiz who has five stolen bases but a 91 WRC+, Jordan Diaz has 17 plate appearances under his belt this year and he has hit a home run while creating runs 46% better than average with a .294 ISO in the tiny sample. The rookie had a .061 ISO and an 82 WRC+ in 51 plate appearances in a cup of coffee last season, he is cheap at third base on FanDuel and second base on DraftKings if going to this lineup. Jesus Aguilar has four home runs and a .215 ISO with a 122 WRC+, he also had a two percent barrel rate for the season, we will let the public have him once again despite what he did the last time that was said in this space earlier this week. Shea Langeliers is a playable catcher with power upside at a cheap price, Aledmys Diaz is a utility man in an everyday role, he has compelling multi-position eligibility if building numerous stacks of Athletics for some reason. Carlos Perez has a home run and a 191 WRC+ over 32 tries, Kevin Smith, and Tony Kemp have a 28 and a 52 WRC+ respectively. This remains a lousy team.
The Angels ascend to the top of the power board once again on the back of their tremendous home run hitters combined with a rookie hurler making his MLB debut. The Angels aggressively pounded prized prospect Mason Miller last night, and tonight’s starter Luis Medina is in no way as good as Mason Miller. Medina is a middling non-prospect with major control problems, which renders his plus fastball and plus-plus breaking ball largely ineffectual. At the Major League level, it seems very unlikely that Medina is going to provide much in the way of value or upside for real baseball or MLB DFS. The starter had a 4.39 xFIP over 72 innings in the Yankees AA system then posted a 5.51 in 20.2 innings on arrival with Oakland’s AA club after coming over in last year’s Frankie Montas trade. Medina was the least of the prospects the Athletics acquired near last year’s deadline, he had an effective strikeout rate of 26.4% but an absurd 13% walk rate in the innings in New York’s system and a 22.8% strikeout rate with a 19.3% walk rate in the smaller Oakland AA sample. Medina has made three AAA starts this season, lasting 9.1 innings and allowing four earned runs while striking out 11 but walking eight and pitching to a 5.72 xFIP. At this level, Medina seems completely overmatched, the Angels lineup should be able to exploit the pitching weakness on this slate. The names atop the Angels lineup need little introduction, though here is yet another reminder that Taylor Ward is good and will come around for correlated scoring as well as an individual upside. Ward is at a 90 WRC+ with just a .120 ISO and three home runs over 106 plate appearances. In 564 last year he had 23 home runs and created runs 37% better than average, he is cheap at $4,500/$2,900 and makes a great starting point for stacking Angels. Mike Trout has a 13.6% barrel rate and a 57.6% hard-hit rate over his first 101 plate appearances and he is slashing .326/.426/.605 with a .279 ISO, five home runs, and a 186 WRC+. Trout is a strong buy at $5,900/$4,200, he should basically never be below $6,000 on DraftKings. Shohei Ohtani checks in at $6,400/$3,700, the two sites clearly see these players somewhat differently, and FanDuel likely has the apportionments correct, Ohtani has not been bad by any means in the early going, but he has not been as productive as Trout so far this season and he did not outperform his teammate last year at the plate. Ohtani is slashing .253/.327/.460 with a .207 ISO and a 114 WRC+ and he has five home runs and three steals to his credit. The superstar has first base eligibility on DraftKings, enhancing his value somewhat for the price, he is very very good and is always worth rostering. Anthony Rendon has not found hit power, but he keeps the ball in play and gets on base at a healthy .353 clip so far this year, though his WRC+ is sitting at a lowly 83 over his first 68 plate appearances. Rendon should eventually find his form, he has missed time with injuries in recent seasons, totaling just 193 plate appearances last year and 249 the season before, so it makes a degree of sense that he has been slow to come around, there is good reason for faith in the third baseman. Hunter Renfroe has six home runs on the season, posting an excellent .281 ISO to cover for the power outage by Rendon so far, Renfroe costs $5,000/$3,700 in the outfield on both sites. Luis Rengifo hit 17 quiet home runs and had a 103 WRC+ in 511 plate appearances last year, he has multi-position eligibility in the outfield and at second base for $3,200 on DraftKings and he is a three-position player, adding shortstop to the mix, for just $2,600 on FanDuel. Rengifo is an underrated piece of Angels stacks, he adds dynamic flexibility and cost savings while not destroying the upside of a lineup like some of the lesser options we have seen in this role for Los Angeles. Brandon Drury has three homers on the board and is also a cheap multi-position asset on both sites, though he has not found the form from last year’s breakout so far this season. Matt Thaiss is an afterthought if he is catching in the eighth spot as projected, Zach Neto needs to prove he can be relevant at this level, but he is very cheap at shortstop and a viable wraparound with a highly regarded prospect hit tool.
Play: Angels stacks aggressively, Patrick Sandoval
Update Notes: the Angels have Gio Urshela in where we were hoping for the better bat of Rengifo, the rest of the lineup is as expected.
St. Louis Cardinals (+101/4.49) @ San Francisco Giants (-110/4.62)
The final game of the night sees a pair of viable veteran pitchers doing battle, with Anthony DeSclafani taking the mound for the hometown Giants to face Steven Matz of the Cardinals. DeSclafani has a 2.82 xFIP and a 22.8% strikeout rate with an excellent 2.2% walk rate in his 24 innings and four starts this year. The righty has just a 0.88 WHIP and a 2.17% home run rate despite an 11.6% barrel rate and 90.6 mph average exit velocity allowed with a 50.7% hard-hit rate. DeSclafani has managed that result by inducing just a 2.4-degree average launch angle in a different approach to pitching so far. Last season he had a 14-degree average launch angle, it was 11.6 degrees the year before, so this represents a change from what resulted in a 4.26% home run rate last year. The righty has been better for strikeouts but his swinging-strike rate and CSW% are about the same as they were. The only thing working against DeSclafani is the tough matchup, though the Cardinals do lose a shade against right-handed pitching. St. Louis’ lineup is in play, this is a four corners opportunity, but no side of it is truly special in this matchup. When rostering Cardinals, the team can truly be played from 1-9 on most nights, so selection can be approached on an upside, cost, and popularity basis. Lars Nootbaar leads off and has two home runs with a .219 ISO in just 43 plate appearances, he hits ahead of a righty-lefty-righty power core of Paul Goldschmidt and the two Nolans: Gorman and Arenado, any of whom make strong individual options or can be combined into a strong stack on most nights. Willson Contreras is a valuable catcher play who has a pair of home runs this year while creating runs 24% better than average, he is cheap at $4,300 in the catcher spot, the difference between his price and that of JT Realmuto from Philadelphia is noteworthy. Alec Burleson and Paul DeJong provide lefty-righty pop from the late portion of the lineup, while Jordan Walker and Tommy Edman are prospective wraparound options with strong hit tools, their individual upside for power, and speed. The matchup against this version of DeSclafani is the only thing limiting the Cardinals on this slate, if he loses the groundballs for a start this team could connect for MLB DFS value.
Steven Matz has made four starts and thrown 22 innings, achieving decent strikeout results but questionable outcomes everywhere else. Matz has a 24.7% strikeout rate and a strong 13.1% swinging-strike rate in the small sample, but he has walked 10.3% and has a 1.64 WHIP which is unsustainable in conjunction with a 4.12% home run rate, a 46% hard-hit rate and a 90.3 mph average exit velocity. However, Matz is priced at just $6,000/$6,900 which is just too low for a pitcher who does have strikeout capability against a team with a current-year average strikeout rate above 26% in the projected lineup. Matz comes with significant danger of implosion, he has given up power and runs in each of his four starts but he has been more effective than the 6.55 ERA and home run issues would indicate, his 3.66 xFIP is the more telling mark, chasing that quality and some strikeouts against the Giants at these prices is not a bad idea in MLB DFS tournaments tonight. Taking out shares of Giants bats makes sense as a hedge if taking up that position as well. The projected lineup includes Austin Slater in the leadoff role, Slater has just three plate appearances this year but was a 124 WRC+ player over 325 opportunities last year, he costs the dead minium on FanDuel and $2,800 on the DraftKings slate, and is primarily a correlation piece. Thairo Estrada, Mitch Haniger, and JD Davis make a strong right-handed power core against the lefty, Estrada has good mid-range power as well as speed and a strong hit tool, he is slashing .310/.362/.494 with a 136 WRC+ this year. Haniger also just returned to the lineup, he has massive right-handed power when healthy, and he is too cheap at $3,900/$2,800 against the lefty. Davis has been repeatedly mentioned as a column favorite for his excellent premium contact, he has a .236 ISO and a 136 WRC+ over 79 plate appearances. Michael Conforto hits behind one former Mets teammate and ahead of another, he is in play even with the same-handed pitching matchup, as is Wilmer Flores behind him. Flores has a longstanding reputation for quality against lefties, and he has become a full-time player in San Francisco. Overall, Flores hit 19 home runs with a 103 WRC+ in 602 plate appearances last year, he has three homers and a 116 WRC+ this season. David Villar has scuffled over 78 plate appearances but he has another strong right-handed bat and has maintained an excellent 13.6% barrel rate when he does happen to connect. Mike Yastrzemski has five home runs and should play despite the lefty on the mound, he is a late lineup option who could see right-handed bullpen pitchers if Matz gets chased. Joey Bart has not provided much at the plate this season in terms of counting stats, but he has a 114 WRC+ over 37 opportunities this year and he did manage 11 home runs in 291 plate appearances last season.
Play: Four corners: Steven Matz value play on both sites, Cardinals bats, Anthony DeSclafani in moderate to low doses, hedge shares of Giants if playing Matz
Update Notes: lineups are still pending, but Jordan Walker was sent back to AAA by the Cardinals
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