The gigantic 12-game Friday MLB DFS main slate is going to start before this column is finished if we spend too much time introducing it. The board is absolutely loaded today, there are major pockets of power potential, excellent starting pitching options, mispriced value galore, and everything one could want from an early season Friday slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 4/21/23
Detroit Tigers (+157/3.72) @ Baltimore Orioles (-171/4.87)
Tigers’ starter Michael Lorenzen has had just one outing so far this season, a four-inning start last week against the Giants that saw him give up two home runs and six earned runs on eight total hits while striking out six and walking two. Lorenzen had a 20.7% strikeout rate with a 4.20 xFIP and a 10.7% walk rate in 18 starts and 97.2 innings last year with the Angels, in what was easily the largest starting sample of his career. This is not a young prospect with a short track record and expectations, Lorenzen is now 31 and qualifies as a “never was” veteran on a bad team. This has the opposing Orioles on the board as an interesting option for MLB DFS scoring today. For all his fault, Lorenzen is not a massive target for home run hitting, he had just a 2.68% home run rate with a 6.8% barrel rate and 37.1% mark for hard hits last year and, while he gave up two in his first start, the Orioles are projected only in the middle of the Power Index today. Still, Baltimore’s young lineup is incredibly capable and creates runs in bunches. Cedric Mullins II is in the leadoff role, he has two home runs and nine stolen bases already this year in just 80 plate appearances. Mullins was a 30/30 man two seasons ago, he is an excellent piece of the puzzle who has created runs 21% better than average so far this season. The outfielder hits in front of Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle, a pair of burgeoning right-handed stars in Baltimore. Rutschman is challenging for the title of baseball’s best catcher when it comes to his performance at the plate as a hitter, he has a .309/.447/.515 triple-slash with four home runs and a .206 ISO with a 173 WRC+ to start the season. Mountcastle is a hard-hitting first baseman with tremendous power potential. He has hit six home runs this season but is actually just below average with a 92 WRC+, needing to turn around the triple-slash from his currently low .208/.232/.494. Mountcastle hit .250/.305/.423 last season so there is reason to believe more quality is coming, and the power is very real, he has a 20.3% barrel rate with a 54.2% hard-hit mark for the young season. Anthony Santander hits from both sides of the plate but has struggled to get his season underway. Santander has just one home run and a .127 ISO but he has plenty of trust in the long term and should be included as long as he is in the top half of the Orioles lineup. Adam Frazier costs $2,900/$2,800, he has two home runs and three stolen bases with a 117 WRC+ over just 61 plate appearances this season, he is a value-based piece in the heart of the projected lineup, but not much more than that. Austin Hays, on the other hand, has been excellent over 72 opportunities this year. Hays has hit three home runs and he is slashing .324/.361/.574 with a .250 ISO and a 161 WRC+. The righty is cheap at $4,100/$3,200 and too often skipped when MLB DFS gamers stack Orioles bats, he should be in lineups. Gunnar Henderson has one home run and one stolen base in his 67 plate appearances, but he is fully expected to hit in a big way at this level. The top prospect is figuring things out, he is currently slashing just .176/.373/.275 with a .098 ISO but he still has a 102 WRC+ which is impressive given the struggles. Henderson should be rostered and he is cheap with multi-position eligibility at third base and shortstop on both sites. Ramon Urias is not inept at the plate, he has a home run this year and hit 16 in 445 plate appearances with a .166 ISO and a 104 WRC+ last year. Urias and Terrin Vavra round out the projected lineup with Jorge Mateo likely sidelined with an injury.
The Orioles will answer the Lorenzen challenge with a weak starter of their own, righty Tyler Wells. Neither pitcher inspires much faith, but if a villain is dangling your one true love off a cliff and making you choose, Wells is probably the better bet simply on the matchup. The righty has an 18% strikeout rate in his first 16.1 innings and two starts this year, matching the 18% he posted across 23 starts and 103.2 innings in 2022. Wells pitched to a 4.60 xFIP and a 4.25 ERA last year while allowing a 3.78% home run rate, he is not a premium option on the mound, $8,100 on FanDuel is too high a price, but he could deliver minor SP2 value for the $6,200 that DraftKings is asking. Against Wells, the lousy Tigers lineup is slightly higher on the potential stacks board than usual, but their 3.72 implied run total does nothing to build faith in the play, the Tigers are typically left cast to the side when building MLB DFS lineups. Nick Maton is slashing .151/.262/.358 with a 76 WRC+ and regularly leads off for this team, Riley Greene was today’s Tigers home run pick, he has two on the season but just a .145 ISO with a 93 WRC+. Javier Baez is still in the league, whether he is aware of it is another question. Baez is slashing .197/.254/.246 with no home runs and a 42 WRC+ in a disinterested start to his campaign. Kerry Carpenter has the team’s best bat in this version of the lineup, Carpenter has three home runs and a .283 ISO and is the only Tigers player with his airway above the run-creation waterline. Carpenter has a robust 145 WRC+ to go with his 23.5% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit mark, he could make for a sneaky one-off play at just $3,000/$2,400 against this pitcher. Akil Baddoo is down to a 58 WRC+ with no home runs and just a single stolen base, he was probably better off in the minors. Spencer Torkelson and Miguel Cabrera land in the sixth and seventh spots in the projected lineup, between them they have Torkelson’s two home runs and nothing else to show for their 106 combined plate appearances. Zach McKinstry and Eric Haase round out the projected batting order, Haase at least provides the memory of home run potential, if not the reality. This continues to be a bad baseball team.
Play: Orioles stacks/bats; Kerry Carpenter one-off if you’re from Detroit and always have to play a Tigers bat
Update Notes: Detroit’s confirmed lineup has Matt Vierling hitting sixth, Jonathan Scoop hitting eighth, and Jake Rogers in the nine spot. Rogers has two home runs in 32 plate appearances this year with a good contact profile, but the Tigers remain a bad option overall. The Orioles projected lineup is as expected with no Mateo.
Toronto Blue Jays (+119/4.05) @ New York Yankees (-129/4.55)
The Blue Jays and Yankees game was featured for home run potential in our Power Index this afternoon, both teams are in excellent positions to provide fireworks, though the implied team totals seem lower than expected given this pitching matchup. The Blue Jays will be facing Domingo German, who may or may not bring a sticky hand to the mound this evening. German is under the microscope after accusations of sticky stuff usage in his most recent gem, he comes in with a wildly uncharacteristic 33.3% strikeout rate with a 2.70 xFIP and a 3.86 ERA for the season. German has allowed a 3.51% home run rate but just a 30.3% hard-hit rate this year, but his 40.6% hard-hit rate and 3.69% home run rate last year are more telling, German gives up too much premium contact and allows too many home runs unless something has dramatically changed about his game the Blue Jays are in a good spot tonight. The team’s top-6 hitters are all above the 10-mark in our home run model. George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, Matt Chapman, and Brandon Belt range from Belt’s 10.35 to Guerrero’s massive 17.25 in the model this afternoon. Catcher Danny Jansen comes close to adding a seventh bat to that list of excellent power options, he has no home runs and a .000 ISO this season but hit 15 home runs last year with a .256 ISO over 248 opportunities. Springer is slashing just .208/.274/.325 with three home runs to start the season but he hit 25 and stole 14 bases last year and has been a star since coming into the league with Houston. Bichette and Guerrero are layup plays on essentially any given slate against any pitcher. Bichette has created runs 65% better than average over 86 plate appearances, hitting four home runs with a .195 ISO while Guerrero has a 157 WRC+ with three home runs but just a .135 ISO. When Springer and Guerrero get fully engaged for the season this offense will soar. Daulton Varsho is slashing .234/.333/344 with a .109 ISO and one home run, but he hit 27 homers last year and has significant power upside as a lefty home run hitter in Yankee Stadium tonight. Chapman has torn through baseball for a 239 WRC+ to start the season, he has five home runs and a monster .353 ISO, Belt has struggled but is another excellent left-handed home run hitter in this ballpark, putting him on the board for stacks and individual usage at a cheap price and what should be low popularity. Cavan Biggio and Kevin Keiermaier round out the projected lineup with another pair of lefty bats, while both are more limited at the plate than their teammates, either could deposit a line drive home run in the short porch in right field tonight.
At the same time, the Yankees are pulling in strong power marks of their own, even with the absence of Giancarlo Stanton. The team is facing Yusei Kikuchi, a lefty who has had issues with home runs throughout his career. Kikuchi had a 5.07% home run rate with a massive 47.1% hard-hit rate allowed for the season in 100.2 innings and 20 starts last year. The year before he was similarly bad for power, giving up a 47% hard-hit rate and a 4.05% home run rate. Kikuchi’s 14.8% barrel rate allowed last year plays right into the Yankees’ approach to hitting, their right-handed power bats should be able to take advantage of the starter and their lefties will not be out of play. Kikuchi has given up a 48.8% hard-hit rate and an 11.6% barrel rate with 92.7 mph of average exit velocity and a 7.94% home run rate in his small 15.1-inning sample to this point over three starts, the southpaw has given up at least one home run in each start, and he allowed three to the Angels in his second start of the year. This is a pitcher, and a game environment, to target for hitting upside. Only Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo land above a 10 in the home run model, with Judge carrying a 16.75 and Rizzo at 11.62, but a handful of Yankees are in play. The team has good correlated scoring and sequencing options to play along with the power bats, and most of them are at worst mid-range power hitters on their own. Rookie Anthony Vlope is slated to lead off again, he has one home run and a .105 ISO but has stolen eight bases to pad MLB DFS scoring for now. Hitting in front of Judge would put you in play if you were in the Yankees lineup, Vlope is an option despite a moderately cool start to his career. Judge and Rizzo hit in front of Gleyber Torres who has two home runs and a 136 ISO so far this year, and DJ LeMahieu, who has a pair of home runs and a .232 ISO over his 64 plate appearances. Torres has a 9.22 in the home run model while LeMahieu lands at just 5.41, despite the latter’s output for power in the early part of this year, Torres is the better home run hitter over an extended period. Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera are in the projected lineup for New York, Peraza is a top prospect getting a little playing time against lefties while Josh Donaldson lingers on the injured list. Kyle Higashioka is the better of the Yankees’ two excellent defensive catchers when it comes to hitting, particularly for power. Higashioka’s contact profile has been featured on this site several times early this season, the backstop has a strong knack for barreling the ball and generating premium contact, he needs to do better turning that into home runs, but he has two on the board early this season to go with his 33.3% barrel rate and 60% hard-hit over 25 meaningless plate appearances. In a fair sample of 248 opportunities last year, Higashioka had a 9.8% barrel rate with a 48.1% hard-hit mark.
Play: Blue Jays stacks, Yankees stacks
Update Notes: both lineups were confirmed as projected.
Colorado Rockies (+264/3.32) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-298/5.82)
If you ask MLB DFS gamers or Phillies fans, starter Aaron Nola is completely shot and will never be good again. If you ask anyone else, he’s probably fine. A quick look at Nola’s pitch mix, velocities, and other such data tells us that the righty has dropped a little zip on his fastball in the early part of this year, but overall most of his spin and other factors are intact, he simply looks like an accomplished veteran off to a bit of a slow start. Nola has had four outings so far this year, the only truly bad start was the first of the year against the Rangers. That afternoon Nola made it through just 3.2 innings, getting charged with five earned runs on four hits including a home run while striking out four and walking two. In his three subsequent starts, Nola pitched into the sixth inning, completing it in two of the three outings. The righty allowed three runs in each of those games, striking out five Yankees and four Reds hitters. In between, he had a 5.2-inning outing that saw him yield nine hits and four earned runs with a home run while striking out six Marlins. Nola has been up and down somewhat since starting the season, but he has been reliably one of baseball’s best for several seasons, and the numbers are not nearly as bad as the rumors. With his salary down to just $9,400/$9,300, Philadelphia’s ace looks like a bargain in what should be an easy outing against the lowly Rockies, Nola is among the best pitching options of the day. Colorado’s lineup is a difficult proposition to play against this pitcher, even if he is not fully on form. Jurickson Profar has been weak leading off for this team ahead of Kris Bryant, a star at .293/.369/.467 with a 113 WRC+ and Charlie Blackmon, who is cheap at $4,500/$2,800. The lefty outfielder has a home run but just a .125 ISO so far this year, but if he is hitting third he is in play when going to this team for bats. C.J. Cron has a team-leading 8.32 in the home run model and got back on the board last night. Cron has five home runs and a .258 ISO for the season, he is a premium power hitter but the matchup is not favorable for him. Ryan McMahon would be the most playable name in the second half of the lineup, but Elias Diaz can be utilized as a catcher and Elehuris Montero is a consideration for the discount at third base. The bottom of the Rockies lineup is not a safe place from which to extract offensive upside, however, this group is better left to the general public. The lineup rounds out as expected with Yonathan Daza and Ezequiel Tovar.
The Phillies were the featured team in today’s Power Index, they will be at home in their hitter-friendly ballpark to face Noah Davis, a limited 25-year-old right-handed non-prospect filling a space in the Rockies rotation. Davis has made one start, throwing five clean innings against the Mariners while striking out five and walking three, his xFIP for the game was a 4.08, we can expect a lower-end performance tonight. The largest sample in Davis’ career is 133.1 innings in 26 AA starts last year, a sample over which he posted a 4.68 xFIP and a 25.9% strikeout rate with a 10.2% walk rate while allowing 26 home runs to 588 hitters, a 4.42% home run rate, in AA. The Phillies’ power bats are strong plays tonight and the entire team is pulling in excellent marks for home run upside, they will be able to feast on the Colorado bullpen after chasing Davis from this one, so here’s hoping that the public goes away from them somewhat after getting burnt at heavy ownership by this squad just last night. Projected leadoff man Bryson Stott is no one’s idea of a power hitter, but he is an excellent correlation piece and he has a touch of pop. Stott hit 10 home runs and stole 12 bases last year, posting a .124 ISO along the way but he was below average in creating runs, this season over his first 91 plate appearances the infielder has a lone home run and a .112 ISO but he has created runs 28% better than average and is getting on base at a .374 clip. Stott is a strong infield play for a cheap price on both sites. The power begins to come into play with Trea Turner, who has his first home run on the board this year but just a .128 ISO so far. Turner is an excellent hitter who blasted 21 home runs last year and 28 the year before, he is carrying a strong rating in tonight’s home run model and should circle the bases a few times and be involved in MLB DFS scoring one way or another tonight. Kyle Schwarber’s rating in the home run model today is so high that he probably already has three home runs before leaving home to go to the game. Schwarber has massive power on the left side of the plate, this looks like a very strong spot to roster the slugger who is sporting a 15.4% barrel rate and four home runs in his first 87 plate appearances. Schwarber launched 46 homers last year and 34 the season before, he is far too cheap at $3,100 on FanDuel, which will make him explosively popular tonight. On DraftKings, the hope is that a $6,000 tag, along with the $6,100 for Turner, cuts into ownership somewhat. Nick Castellanos should not be skipped in Phillies stacks either, despite a bit of a lack of power to this point in the season. Castellanos has slashed .289/.372/.408 and created runs 14% better than average this season, he is a cheap quality alternative in the middle of the lineup who connects nicely with the teammates ahead of, and behind, him in the lineup. Brandon Marsh and JT Realmuto are strong plays on both sites, Marsh has a 13.2% barrel rate with three home runs and a whopping 196 WRC+ this season, Realmuto is the game’s best catcher at the plate. Alec Bohm has hit three home runs and is now slashing .311/.393/.473 with a .162 ISO and a 136 WRC+ over 84 plate appearances. Bohm remains too cheap and has first base and third base eligibility on DraftKings for $4,400, he is a $3,600 third baseman on FanDuel, where Bohm and Trea Turner cost the same price, and they are both $100 less than Marsh. Things get weird early in the season. Jake Cave and Edmundo Sosa wrap the projected lineup, Cave has a home run this season and hit five in 177 tries last year, Sosa has two this season with a .281 ISO and a 153 WRC+ in a tiny 34 plate appearances sample. The infielder slashed .227/.275/.369 with two home runs and a .142 ISO last year, he had six home runs and a .118 ISO over 326 tries the year before, the early output is a blip, the quality in this lineup is from 1-7.
Play: Phillies stacks/bats enthusiastically, Aaron Nola
Update Notes: The Rockies have Harold Castro hitting seventh, the top-6 hitters are the focus if going to contrarian Rockies against Nola. The Phillies lineup was confirmed as projected.
Miami Marlins (+116/3.84) @ Cleveland Guardians (-126/4.25)
The Marlins have a good matchup against a contact-oriented middling righty tonight in Cleveland, but the team is pulling in just a 3.84 implied run total, landing them somewhere in the middle of potential stack rankings. Miami is facing Zach Plesac, who has a 13.3% strikeout rate in his 13 innings over three starts. Plesac struck out 17.6% in 131.2 innings last year and she had a 16.7% mark over 142.2 innings the year before, this is not a threatening strikeout pitcher nor is it one who is in play for MLB DFS, even against the Marlins, even at $6,500/$6,300, there is just not much of a ceiling. The righty was unexpectedly good in one of his three starts this year, ironically against the only good team he faced. Plesac struggled against the Athletics and Nationals but struck out six over seven innings of two-run ball against the Mariners in the middle outing. That will likely be his best start of the season, but the limited Marlins lineup is not always a great stack option, even when the pitcher is bad. Miami has three players in the lineup who have created runs better than average so far this season, they are the core of batters from second through fourth in the lineup. Jazz Chisholm Jr., the team’s best player, and leadoff hitter is not a part of that group over his first 74 plate appearances this season, but he should be included in all things Marlins for MLB DFS. Chisholm is sitting at a 93 WRC+ but he has three home runs and six stolen bases and is a correlated scoring option in the event that he manages to get on, the only thing between Chisholm and stardom is his lowly .297 on-base percentage. Garrett Cooper has three home runs with a .179 ISO and a 129 WRC+ so far this season, slashing a stout .313/.352/.493 and landing cheap across the industry at $4,200/$3,000. Luis Arraez has the game’s best hit tool, he is slashing a ridiculous .438/.493/.578 with one home run and one stolen base while creating runs 92% better than average. Arraez is involved in everything this offense does, he is having an outrageous start to his season and truly could challenge for .400 if this keeps up. Jorge Soler is the best power bat on the Marlins, the slugger has five home runs and a titanic .367 ISO with a 155 WRC+ to start his season. The rest of the lineup begins to trail off, Bryan De La Cruz is playable but is 11% worse than average creating runs with no real counting stat production, Avisail Garcia and Jean Segura are playing out the string for their long careers, they have both been entirely inept to start their seasons. Nick Fortes and Jon Berti are another pair of limited options from the bottom of the lineup, but Berti has speed to offer as a wraparound play at least.
The Guardians lineup has a number of useful pieces for MLB DFS production with the degree to which they put the ball in play, sequence, and steal bases. The team has one superstar home run hitter but generally lacks massive power, with most of their bats in the average range for power production, but they are good at what they do and should be in play against lefty Braxton Garrett. The 25-year-0ld southpaw has made two starts and thrown 13.1 innings so far this year, putting up a 21.7% strikeout rate and a 3.23 xFIP. He had a 24.1% strikeout rate with a 3.51 xFIP last year in 88 innings and 17 starts and is roughly a league-average pitcher over 143 career innings, posting a 3.80 xFIP with a 4.03 ERA and a 22.8% strikeout rate with an 8.1% walk rate. Garrett costs $6,900/$7,600 but his overall upside is probably capped, even at the value pricing, by the Guardians’ ability to avoid strikeouts. This is not a great spot for a pitcher who is fairly in the middle of the board, Garrett could provide value on a different slate against a different opponent, this is not the spot. At the same time, the appeal for stacking Cleveland bats is somewhat limited as well. Garrett is just good enough that we can expect him to keep them fairly in check, as evidenced by just a 4.25 implied team total. The target bats in the Guardians lineup remain familiar, Steven Kwan is one of baseball’s best leadoff hitters with his ability to keep the ball in play and avoid strikeouts, but he has been below average with just an 86 WRC+ and has no individual power potential. Gabriel Arias is projected to hit second, filling in for Amed Rosasio in the infield. Arias has one home run and a 57 WRC+ but costs just $2,700/$2,000 with second base and shortstop eligibility. Jose Ramirez is the team’s star, he has a 122 WRC+ so far but has actually not been his typically excellent self overall yet. Ramirez is slashing .270/.368/.458 with a .189 ISO and two home runs, adding four stolen bases. He has a 4.7% barrel rate and a 37.5% hard-hit rate over his 87 opportunities this season. In 685 plate appearances last year, Ramirez hit 29 home runs and stole 20 bases, posting a .235 ISO and 139 WRC+, he is still priced for that production at $5,900/$3,800. Josh Bell is slashing just .191/.300/.324 and is very cheap at $3,700/$2,700. The first baseman hit 17 home runs and had a 123 WRC+ last year and he was at 27 long balls with a 118 mark for run creation the year before, he is a bargain when rostering Guardians and should be included despite the early scuffling. Andres Gimenez gets love in this space for his combination of tools, the infielder is slashing .278/.350/.389 and has created runs nine percent better than average over 81 opportunities this year. Gimenez stole 20 bases and hit 17 home runs in an underrated 2022 season. Catcher Mike Zunino has as much power as anyone in the game when he makes contact, it is the contact that is the elusive part of the equation. Zunino has put bat on ball somewhat effectively to start the season, he is slashing .289/.438/.526 with a .237 ISO and a 176 in his small sample of 48 plate appearances. Zunino famously hit 33 home runs in just 375 plate appearances in 2021, out-barreling the best in baseball and leading all hitters who made more than 350 plate appearances that year. Will Brennan and Myles Straw round out the lineup with minimal appeal, Straw has stolen seven bases and has a 116 WRC+ with a .389 on-base percentage over 74 plate appearances, which at least has him on the list of potential wraparound plays.
Play: limited shares of Guardians stacks/bats, even fewer Marlins shares
Update Notes: The Marlins have an interesting young slugger Jesus Sanchez in the lineup sixth instead of Garcia, Sanchez costs just $2,400/$2,200 and has not been productive at all this year. Last year he hit 13 home runs in 343 plate appearances, posting a .188 ISO and a 9.9% barrel rate. The rest of the lineup is in its expected form. The Guardians lineup sees Amed Rosario return to the two spot, giving the entire team a bump in quality and boosting the appeal of Guardians’ stacks against Braxton Garrett. Oscar Gonzalez is hitting fifth with Josh Naylor hitting eighth, further extending the appeal and putting the Guardians lineup at its full strength.
Houston Astros (+101/4.49) @ Atlanta Braves (-110/4.62)
This one should be fun all weekend. The Astros are in Atlanta to battle the Braves in a series between two of baseball’s true contenders this year. Houston will be facing righty Bryce Elder, who is off to a decent start to his 2023 season. Elder has made three starts, covering 17.2 innings and pitching to a 23.6% strikeout rate with a 3.75 xFIP. The 23-year-0ld soft-tosser threw six innings of two-hit ball while striking out six Cardinals in his first outing, then upped the performance to seven strikeouts in 6.1 clean innings of six-hit ball against the Reds. Elder finally allowed runs in his third start, giving up three while striking out four and walking two in 5.1 innings against the Royals. The righty has yet to allow a home run this season but he will be challenged to keep that fact intact against an excellent Astros team. Elder’s fastball tops out at 89 mph, he throws a sharp sinker-slider mix that keeps hitters off balance and works more effectively than it seemingly should. Elder costs $8,300/$9,600, he is probably moderately in play at the DraftKings price but it remains a tough ask on the blue site. Elder has been unquestionably good, but against this Astros team, it is difficult to see a path to a slate-winning score for the starter. Houston’s projected lineup starts with Mauricio Dubon, who has filled in ably for Jose Altuve at .323/.338/.371 with a 100 WRC+. Dubon is a correlation piece, he has not produced much on an individual basis when it comes to counting stats this season and he hit just five home runs in 265 plate appearances with a .099 ISO last year. Hitting in front of Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu, and Kyle Tucker is a nice place for a correlation piece to live, the excellent Astros lineup can be blind-stacked from 1-5 in a straight line on basically any slate with at least mid-range confidence. Bregman has two home runs and a 97 WRC+ this season, he has been slow to start but is a proven All-Star caliber veteran. Alvarez is one of the most expensive hitters of the day at $6,400/$4,500, he is worth it against batting practice level velocity tonight. Abreu is slashing .266/.301/.304 but has yet to hit a home run or drive the ball with much authority, his ISO sits at a lowly .038, but the power is en route. Tucker is slashing .313/.438/.547 with a 177 WRC+ and a .234 ISO. The outfielder has a 10.9% barrel rate and a 49.1% hard-hit rate for the season, he is one of the best players in baseball and deserves roster spots at $5,800/$3,900. Jeremy Pena is a capable hitter at shortstop, he has three home runs and five steals in his 85 plate appearances, rescuing the lousy .211/.386/.408 triple-slash he has posted. Pena should improve on his current 95 WRC+ mark, he is inexpensive at $4,400/$3,200 given the talent level and lineup involved. Corey Julks has a 100 WRC+ putting him at league average for run creation over his 48 plate appearances to start his career. Julks has a 45.2% hard-hit rate and comes cheap at $2,600/$2,700 to help offset the popularity or pricing of other hitters. Jake Meyers and Martin Maldonado are infrequent contributors of low-owned home runs and not much else, they each have one in 40 and 49 plate appearances respectively.
With an outrageously good lineup of their own, the Braves are always on the board and can be blind-stacked at the top of the batting order most days as well. The team is in an interesting position facing rookie Hunter Brown, who has electric stuff and an excellent prospect pedigree, on which he has mostly delivered over three outings this year. Brown has thrown 18.2 innings and has a 23.3% strikeout rate with a 3.89 xFIP and a 1.93 ERA, and he is also yet to allow a home run this season. The rookie is one of baseball’s top pitching prospects and he seems to have arrived fully formed. Brown costs $9,800/$9,100, he is an intriguing play against the Braves, for all their excellence in creating runs and hitting for power, the team does strike out at a heavy clip. The projected starting lineup for the Braves has a current-year strikeout rate of 23.1% and was at 24% for the full season last year. Brown could squeak through with only a few runs allowed and a lofty strikeout total, but this would be very much a both-sides play, making this a potential four-corners game for MLB DFS. The Braves’ loaded lineup begins with superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. and loses very little over the next few hitters when it comes to talent and MLB DFS point production. Acuna has a 169 WRC+ with three home runs and eight stolen bases for $6,500/$4,700, first baseman Matt Olson is $5,800/$4,400 because he is “only” at a 161 WRC+ with six home runs and a massive .333 ISO, while Austin Riley checks in as the cheap man in the bunch at $5,600 on DraftKings and, somehow, $3,300 on FanDuel. The price on the blue site is clearly a mistake, that was supposed to be a $4,300 price, take advantage. Sean Murphy has four home runs on the season with his 170 WRC+ joining the group of absurdly good run creators atop this lineup. Murphy gets regular DH plate appearances even when he is off from catching, he should be treated with the same regard where the position is not required on FanDuel, this is a player whose bat should always be in the Braves lineup both in real life and for DraftKings and FanDuel purposes. Eddie Rosario and Ozzie Albies can produce from the middle of the lineup, with Albies the preferred play for his talent level, positioning, and overall upside. Both players are cheap but Rosario is so low-priced because he has struggled significantly for quality at just a 38 WRC+. Vaugh Grissom and Sam Hilliard are strong plays for price late in the lineup, while Kevin Pillar is mostly here for his defense if he is in the lineup at all.
Play: Four Corners Game: Astros bats, Braves bats, Hunter Brown, Bryce Elder in that order of preference, all in moderate to small doses, but taking a position over the field on any corner in this contest is not a mistake.
Update Notes: The Astros have Yainer Diaz in for Maldonado at catcher, otherwise their lineup is as anticipated. The Braves lineup is exactly as discussed.
Oakland Athletics (+183/3.55) @ Texas Rangers (-201/5.06)
A matchup between the Athletics and talented righty Jon Gray firmly favors the pitcher, Gray is a top option on the mound tonight across the MLB DFS industry and he is too cheap at $9,100/$8,800. The FanDuel price is particularly surprising, given how they were pricing less-proven starters against this Oakland team earlier in the week, Gray is a very good pitcher with moderate strikeout acumen, he is primed for a good outing in his home park tonight. The righty has made three starts this year, posting a 4.22 xFIP with a 3.21 ERA and a 23.2% strikeout rate over 14 innings. Gray was very good last year, his first year out of the Colorado rotation, posting a 25.7% strikeout rate with a 3.46 xFIP over 24 starts and 127.1 innings. The righty has the potential to carve up the Vegas Oakland (for a bit longer) lineup tonight. The Athletics are not overly playable, the team has Esteury Ruiz in the leadoff spot in the projected lineup, Ruiz has five stolen bases and is slashing .302/.389/.365 with a 129 WRC+ in his 74 plate appearances, the rookie is one of the team’s few interesting names if he is at the top of the lineup, less so from the bottom. Ryan Noda has hit two home runs and has a 136 WRC+ over 56 plate appearances in his rookie season. His .159 ISO and 7.7% barrel rate with a 38.5% hard-hit mark is not overly inspiring, however. Veteran utility man Aledmys Diaz is a regular starter on this team, he has been decidedly bad this season. Brent Rooker hit four quick home runs after joining this team, he has a .351 ISO with a 198 WRC+ and an excellent contact profile over his 43 plate appearances, but there is only a thin layer of potential here, Rooker has too many holes in his swing for sustained success at this level. Tony Kemp and Shea Langeliers are moderately playable bats if getting aggressive with Athletics stacks, Conner Capel is cheap and has a touch of speed from late in the lineup, and Kevin Smith directed Clerks is projected to hit ninth.
The powerful Rangers lineup is facing lefty JP Sears, giving a boost to Gray’s potential to book a win bonus in this outing. Texas is pulling in a 5.06-run implied team total and they look like one of the top options for power and run creation tonight, even without Corey Seager who remains out with an injury. Marcus Semien had a tough first week or two this year but has already raced to a turnaround, now slashing .293/.341/.507 with a .213 ISO and four home runs, putting his WRC+ at a significant 36% above average over his 83 plate appearances; and you were worried. Semien is an excellent leadoff bat, he provides both correlated scoring and huge individual upside and he can be deployed as a one-off or a catalyst for Rangers stacks. The projected lineup has Ezequeil Duran hitting second, the young utility man is slashing .200/.200/.233 over his first 30 plate appearances but he has a track record of contributing counting stats with his home run and stolen base numbers in the minors. Duran comes very cheap at $2,100 on both sites, he has shortstop and outfield eligibility on DraftKings and is either a third baseman or second baseman on FanDuel. Nathaniel Lowe has two home runs and a .173 ISO but has slipped to a 99 WRC+ in the small sample. Lowe is reliably good, he posted a .302/.358/.491 with a .191 ISO and created runs 43% better than average over 645 plate appearances last year and he costs just $4,700/$3,200. Adolis Garcia is a toolsy outfielder who has four home runs but just one stolen base and a 76 WRC+ so far this year. Last year, Garcia hit 27 home runs and stole 25 bases in his 657 tries, give him time and he will absolutely produce massive MLB DFS scores throughout the season, tonight is a good opportunity. Josh Jung is slashing .284/.342/.463 with a 127 WRC+ and three home runs, Jonah Heim joins him in the three home run club for just $3,600/$3,300 at the catcher spot. Heim is a productive bat behind the plate at that price, he is more playable where the position is required but he is not off the board for the fair price on the blue site when building stacks of Rangers. Robbie Grossman has struggled to get going this season, Leody Taveras and Bubba Thompson round out the projected lineup with a bit of potential speed, though neither has stolen a base and both are well below average for run creation in their combined 45 plate appearances this year. Taveras stole 11 bases in 341 plate appearances while hitting five home runs and producing a 93 WRC+ last year, Thompson stole 18 bases in just 181 opportunities but had just a .047 ISO and a 77 WRC+, they are limited as wraparound options. If it seems like we skipped the JP Sears breakdown it was deliberate, he is not good and should be targeted with bats, not rostered as a pitcher. Sears has a problem with premium contact and has so far not been able to translate decent strikeout stuff from the minors to the Show.
Play: Rangers bats aggressively, Jon Gray
Update Notes: Texas opted for Grossman in the two spot, moving Duran to seventh, this is a minor impact to both hitters but the overall appeal of the Texas stack is unchanged.
Washington Nationals (+199/3.05) @ Minnesota Twins (-220/4.55)
The lowly Nationals come to Minnesota to face righty Tyle Mahle who has been quite good to start his season. Mahle is a bit of a roller coaster on the mound throughout his career, but he has shown a sustained ability for upper-level strikeout performances, posting a 27.7% rate over 180 innings in 2021 and a 25% rate in 120.2 innings last year. The righty has a 27.7% strikeout rate over his first three starts and 15.1 innings this season, pitching to a 3.19 xFIP despite a 1.43 WHIP. Mahle has allowed a bit of power and he gives up an average amount of premium contact, but the Nationals’ lineup is non-threatening in the way that it would be unfathomable to find, say, a baby chicken threatening. This is just not a good baseball team, Mahle can be rostered with confidence against them and he comes at a fair $8,700/$9,000 price, making him one of our preferred pitchers for the entire slate. Pairing Mahle and Jon Gray is not a bad way to approach DraftKings with premium pitching at a bit of a price discount if not one for popularity. The Nationals now have just one hitter, Jeimer Candelario, who is not swallowing water when gasping for run creation this season. Candelario is in the baseball equivalent of an air pocket, posting a 101 WRC+ through his 79 plate appearances. Of course, run creation numbers turn around very quickly, so a few decent games will have some of these guys back above water, but the Nationals have been very very bad to start this year. Alex Call has one home run and a 69 WRC+, Dom Smith has no home runs and a .000 ISO with a 60 WRC+ and a .226/.324/.226 triple-slash and Candelario is slashing .274/.316/.438 with a .164 ISO and three home runs as by far the team’s best performer this year. Last year’s standout Joey Meneses has been out to an awful start, he has a 51 WRC+ and a .070 ISO over 75 opportunities. Last year Meneses hit 13 home runs with a .239 ISO in 240 plate appearances that are increasingly looking like a statistical blip, though there are at least encouraging signs in the batted ball profile. Luis Garcia and Keibert Ruiz are capable of mid-range production at their positions, Ruiz is a good young everyday catcher who does not cost much, but his one home run and .098 ISO are not exactly must-play items. Lane Thomas, CJ Abrams, and Victor Robles round out the projected lineup with an authoritative “meh.”
Righty Trevor Williams is on the mound for the Nationals tonight, he matches his team’s projected lineup for quality, giving credence to the idea of a win bonus for Mahle in the same way as we saw for Jon Gray. Williams costs $6,000/$6,700 and it is a wonder that he is that expensive. The righty struck out 22.6% with a 3.93 xFIp last year and 22.2% with a 3.96 mark the year before, this season he is at a 14.1% strikeout rate with a 4.88 xFIP in three starts and 15.1 innings. Williams’ ceiling is a league-average starter. The Twins have too much power and too many quality bats to put Williams in play today, he is not worth rostering, Minnesota bats can be stacked against this pitcher fairly aggressively. Max Kepler is in the leadoff role, putting a stout lefty challenge immediately up against the lousy righty. Kepler has two home runs in 37 plate appearances this season, posting a .242 ISO, but he is slashing .182/.270/.424 so far. Last season, the outfielder struggled with just nine home runs in 446 plate appearances while missing chunks of his season and never really getting right. The year before he hit 19 home runs and had a .202 ISO, Kepler is a decent power bat on the correct side of his splits who checks in at just $3,800/$2,500, making him very interesting if he leads off as projected. Carlos Correa is slashing .207/.277/.362 with two home runs and a 79 WRC+ but that doesn’t make the teams that punted his contract signings right, Correa is a fantastic player who will absolutely come around if he remains healthy, which was the lone concern. He hit 22 home runs and had a 140 WRC+ last year and had 26 long balls with a 134 run-creation mark the season before, there is nothing to dislike about the shortstop, even his $4,700/$2,900 pricing is good. Byron Buxton is extremely cheap at $5,000/$2,800 against this pitcher on this slate. Buxton is a $6,000 DraftKings player and a $4,000 FanDuel hitter, he should never be priced this low unless he is playing with an arm tied behind his back. So far this season the star outfielder has scuffled to just a .226/.300/.387 triple-slash with a .161 ISO and two home runs. He still has a 13.2% barrel rate and gargantuan power upside. The Twins are a dynamite value play across the industry tonight. Outfielder Trevor Larnach has power potential that is yet to be fully unlocked at the Major League level, he has hit two home runs with a .136 ISO this year and had five with a .175 ISO in 180 opportunities last year. Larnach is another cheap bat at $3,400/$2,800, the fact that he and Buxton are the same price on FanDuel shows how broken the number for Buxton truly is on the site tonight. Edouard Julien has two home runs in the first 30 plate appearances of his career and he has created runs one percent better than average in the small sample. Joulien hits the ball hard, he has a 10.5% barrel rate and a .222 ISO so far, he costs $2,800/$2,600 at second base hitting ahead of Jose Miranda, whose strong hit tool has been mostly in the shed to start the season. Miranda slashed .268/.325/.426 last year but just .213/.272/.240 with a .027 ISO and a 48 WRC+ over his first 81 plate appearances this season. Joey Gallo already hit a home run this week after returning from a stint on the injured list. The beleaguered slugger has four home runs in 29 plate appearances this season, he is slashing .269/.345/.769 with a .500 ISO and a 203 WRC+ in the tiny sample that has also seen him strike out at a 31% rate. We continue to not care about his strikeouts at all. Gallo has a 29.4% barrel rate and a hilarious 82.4% hard-hit rate for the season. While those will come down, the masher of baseballs has never been bad for contact in his career. He had a Stantonesque 17.6% barrel rate and a 50.5% hard-hit rate in 410 opportunities while getting booed out of the Bronx last year. Gallo’s traditional numbers will never be great, he slashed .160/.280/.357 last season and struck out an absurd 39.8% of the time (even we at least sort of care when things get that out of hand for strikeouts), but he still maintained a .197 ISO and hit 19 home runs. Even when he is terrible, Gallo is not a bad play for MLB DFS, we are only looking to capture his upside days when we can, which means we have to play him and tolerate the days he does not produce. Gallo costs $4,200/$3,500 and has eligibility at first base and in the outfield on DraftKings. Christian Vazquez is a playable catcher bat who has a .318/.388/.386 triple-slash and a 127 WRC+ over 49 plate appearances this year and has produced in past seasons. Michael A. Taylor closes out the projected lineup with an annoying knack for hitting .1%-owned home runs.
Play: Twins bats enthusiastically for value and absurdly low pricing, Tyler Mahle
Update Notes: Washington’s low-end lineup is confirmed in this form. The Twins optioned Julien to AAA and activated Jorge Polanco, an excellent power bat in the middle infield who has been absent dealing with knee injuries for most of last season and all of this year so far. Polanco is a strong play at $3,800/$2,800 in an already good Twins lineup, he is confirmed as hitting fifth, this is an excellent spot that may go overlooked by the public. Ryan Jeffers is in for Vazquez, he has power upside at catcher as well.
Boston Red Sox (+151/3.77) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-164/4.83)
A good matchup in Milwaukee will probably render all four corners of this game slightly under-owned for their talent levels, with the primary focus on the Brewers’ side. Milwaukee is starting righty Freddy Peralta, who has a 26% strikeout rate and a 3.99 xFIP this season and has been very good in the past. Peralta pitched to a 33.6% strikeout rate and a 3.66 xFIP in 27 starts and 144.1 innings in 2021, he missed much of last year but had a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 3.66 xFIP in the 17 starts and 78 innings he pitched last year. Peralta is a strong option at $10,200/$10,400 because his pricing and the matchup against the Red Sox will likely push down his public popularity. The righty has a top-five pitching projection in our model today and is worth some shares at the salary. The Red Sox have several good bats in their lineup, they can be deployed in small shares against Peralta, but the righty is excellent at limiting power output in addition to his strikeout acumen. Peralta allowed just a 31.3% hard-hit rate last year and a 31.1% rate the season before, limiting home runs to 1.89% and 2.41% respectively. This season he is exactly on form with a 31.9% hard-hit and 1.37% home run rate in the very small largely irrelevant sample. We know the pitcher is good, we know he can poke holes in the lineup with strikeouts, and we know he can keep home runs and power in check, and the Red Sox will be low-owned for it. Alex Verdugo has a 149 WRC+ over 86 plate appearances, getting on base at a .407 clip with two home runs on the board while hitting ahead of the excellent core of Rafael Devers and Justin Turner. Devers has hit seven home runs and has a 146 WRC+. The third baseman has been mashing to start the season, he has a .346 ISO with a 16.4% barrel rate and a 55.7% hard-hit to start the year. Turner costs just $3,900/$2,800, he fills first base on DraftKings and adds third base eligibility on FanDuel. The veteran is up to a .259/.356/.351 triple-slash with one home run and he has gotten to a one percent above average mark for run creation over 87 plate appearances. Turner had a 123 WRC+ and 13 home runs in 532 opportunities last year. Rookie Masataka Yoshida had a storied NPB career but he is off to just a .189/.317/.264 start with a .075 ISO and a 69 WRC+ hitting cleanup for Boston. Yoshida should find better form than that, but there was no shortage of skeptics when Boston signed him to a very large contract in the offseason. Enrique Hernandez is a journeyman who can produce in limited doses at low popularity and with shortstop and outfield eligibility. Triston Casas is a first baseman loaded with power expectations, but he is sitting on just two home runs and a .161 ISO so far this year. Casas has struggled for premium contact in his 67 opportunities this year, he has an 8.3% barrel rate and a 33.3% hard-hit mark. Reese McGuire, Jarren Duran, and Yu Chang round out the projected lineup. Duran is somewhat interesting at $2,600/$2,900, he has speed upside and moderate power potential as a wraparound play.
The Brewers will be facing veteran right-hander Nick Pivetta who checks in at a value price point of $7,600/$8,000. Pivetta is facing a fairly tough lineup, but he is a veteran arm who has been a somewhat average pitcher throughout his career, with spots of upside along the way. Over 33 starts and 179.2 innings last year, the righty had a 22.6% strikeout rate and a 4.26 xFIP with a 4.56 ERA, he was better for strikeouts in 155 innings over 30 starts in 2021, posting similar run numbers but a 26.5% strikeout rate. So far this season he has a 25% strikeout mark with a bumpy 5.21 xFIP and a 4.69% home run rate on a 59% hard-hit rate allowed in 14 innings. Pivetta can be played for value, but the Brewers’ bats are the better side of the equation for roster spots. Milwaukee’s projected lineup has two underperforming solid hitters up top, with lefties Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker at a 92 and 94 WRC+ respectively. Both hitters should bounce back over the average run-creation line in short order. Winker is slashing .270/.349/.351 and has missed time, making just 43 plate appearances so far, he will find his footing and should have a good chance to regain his 2021 form in Milwaukee. Yelich is slashing .234/.322/.377 with a .143 ISO and three home runs, adding four stolen bases, he has a 56% hard-hit rate and a six percent barrel rate for the season and is cheap at $4,800/$3,100. The Brewers’ entire lineup is notably inexpensive across the industry tonight, they would make a good value-value pairing with the Twins in lineups that look to roster two expensive pitchers on DraftKings. Willy Adames has four home runs with a .211 ISO and a 124 WRC+ over 85 plate appearances, he hit 31 home runs last year and 25 the year before and has been reliably at about a .220 ISO. This is a very good shortstop who is cheap at $5,200/$3,500, he can be rostered in stacks and as a one-off tonight. Rowdy Tellez and William Contreras are two strong bats in the heart of the order on either side of the plate. Tellez has five home runs and a .271 ISO this season, Contreras is yet to go deep, but he is slashing .302/.393/.340 with a 108 WRC+ at the catcher spot. Brice Turang costs $2,100/$2,800 and is slashing .264/.328/.396 with two home runs and three stolen bases. The rookie is rounding into form and makes for an intriguing late-lineup value play. Brian Anderson has been good to start the season, he has a 112 WRC+ and three home runs but he was at a 90 WRC+ over 383 opportunities last year and a 99 in 264 tries the season before, he is an average player who is priced like one. Blake Perkins and Joey Weimer round out the projected lineup as mix-and-match parts, Perkins has little power to speak of but is a stolen base threat if he plays and manages to get on base.
Play: Freddy Peralta, Brewers bats, minor shares of Red Sox
Update Notes: the forecast for the Red Sox lineup was accurate. Anderson is hitting sixth for the Brewers, with Turang-Owen Miller-Weimer rounding out the lineup.
Kansas City Royals (+244/3.22) @ Los Angeles Angels (-273/5.40)
The Royals are in a tough spot facing the elite Shohei Ohtani this evening. The righty superstar tops our pitching projections for the day on both sites and seems worth every bit of his $10,800/$11,400 salary around the industry. There is no shortage of value bats and there are plenty of quality inexpensive pitchers to pair with Ohtani, he is easy to reach on this slate. Over four starts and 21 innings, Ohtani has a 32.9% strikeout rate and a 4.32 xFIP but a 0.86 ERA. He has allowed just a 28.2% hard-hit rate with no home runs and no barrels and he has a 0.90 WHIP despite a 15.9% walk rate. Ohtani is one of the best in baseball, he can be rostered aggressively against the free-swinging Royals lineup. If deciding to play extremely contrarian and risky, focus on the Royals top-end, including Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Sal Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Franmil Reyes. All five hitters have power upside but they are very likely to provide eight or nine strikeouts to the starter as well, only Pasquantino is good at avoiding strikeouts overall, though Witt has improved so far this season. The lineup beyond those hitters features Michael Massey, Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel, and Nicky Lopez, all of whom are essentially overmatched and largely off the board. They would rank in that order in terms of quality of play for MLB DFS purposes if we had to.
The Angels look like a strong play against the Royals’ bullpen tonight, but the team will be without Ohtani for MLB DFS hitting purposes in what continues to be a stupid way to do things. Ohtani could easily be present both as a pitcher and a hitter in the player pool with a rule restricting him from being used in both spots, instead DFS and fantasy sites at large split the baby. Ohtani leaves a major hole in the Angels lineup, but they can still be played with opener Taylor Clarke likely to pitch an inning or two before handing off to the rest of the pen. Taylor Ward is slashing .224/.310/.329 with just a .105 ISO and an 82 WRC+ after a slow 10 days or so at the plate. The outfielder is priced at $5,000/$3,200, and he was a great correlation piece with individual upside just last year, providing a 137 WRC+ with 23 home runs. Ward is playable in conjunction with superstar Mike Trout and the core of Anthony Rendon and Hunter Renfroe in stacks. Rendon is slashing .256/.373/.282 and has lacked pop with just a .026 ISO and no home runs, Renfroe has hit four home runs and has a .236 ISO while creating runs 38% better than average, making him the better option when selecting between bats, but also putting him on a higher shelf when it comes to price. Gio Urshela is a defensive player who has productive days at the plate. Urshela has just a two percent barrel rate and a 29.4% hard-hit rate this season in his 67 plate appearances, he had a seven percent barrel rate and a 37.6% hard-hit mark over 551 opportunities, hitting 13 home runs last year. He created runs 19% better than average with a .144 ISO for the season, making him a cheap option with oddball first base and shortstop eligibility. Brandon Drury has first and second base eligibility and costs $3,700/$2,400, he hit 28 home runs last year but has scuffled so far this season with just one long ball and a .190/.222/.293 triple-slash. Rookie Zach Neto has not gotten going at the Major League level after his aggressive promotion, but his highly regarded hit tool should come around eventually, Matt Thaiss closes out the lineup.
Play: Shohei Ohtani aggressively, Angels bats/stacks
Update Notes: Reyes is out of the lineup for Kansas City, downgrade to an already bad situation.
San Diego Padres (-109/4.61) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+101/4.49)
Another good pitching matchup sees the Padres improved lineup taking on Zac Gallen in the desert. Gallen has been excellent to start the season, he has a 29.5% strikeout rate and a 3.12 xFIP over 24.1 innings in four starts. The righty has induced an 11.6% swinging-strike rate with a 2.11% home run rate and 4.9% barrel rate allowed so far, improving somewhat on his already very good numbers from last year. Gallen made 31 starts in 2022, pitching to a 26.9% strikeout rate and a sharp 3.32 xFIP with a 2.54 ERA. He allowed just a 2.10% home run rate and was good at limiting premium contact with just a 36.1% hard-hit rate. The righty will be challenged by San Diego’s quality, they have star power across the first four spots in their projected lineup that Gallen will have to get through three times to post a strong start, but he costs just $9,800/$10,000 and has the talent to deliver. The top of the Padres lineup is playable against the talented pitcher, though there is a good chance that it comes down with neither side looking overly important for MLB DFS in this one. Fernando Tatis Jr. was corrected from the minimum price to $5,100 for today’s slate, which is still arguably too low even after an 0-5 start to the season disappointed essentially the entire MLB DFS industry last night. Tatis is one of baseball’s best when healthy and not suspended, he hit 45 home runs and stole 25 bases in 546 plate appearances in 2021. Juan Soto slashed .313/.465/.534 with a .221 ISO and a 163 WRC+ posting 29 home runs that same season. His production dipped in a frustrating final half-year in Washington before landing in San Diego, for the year Soto made 664 plate appearances and slashed .242/.401/.452 with a .210 ISO and 27 home runs, posting a 145 WRC+ overall. The absence of his formerly fantastic hit tool has been the ongoing question mark, Soto is slashing .183/.363/.394 with a .211 ISO and four home runs this year, posting a 111 WRC+ despite the lowly batting average. He is still excellent at drawing walks, avoiding strikeouts, and hitting the ball extremely well when he makes contact. Soto is a superstar and when his hit tool returns his production will skyrocket in this lineup. Manny Machado is always a top third baseman, he costs $4,600/$2,900, the discount offsets some of the expensive price tags of his two featured teammates, making him an excellent piece in a Padres stack. Machado hit 32 home runs last year and 28 the year before, he is a star at a discount. Xander Bogaerts is slashing .350/.418/.575 with a .225 ISO and a 170 WRC+, he just keeps on hitting. The bottom half of the projected lineup loses quality quickly, but Jake Cronenworth is a quality Major League bat. Matt Carpenter, Ha-Seong Kim, Trent Grisham, and Austin Nola are all fine and can produce counting stats, but they all come with flaws as well. Grisham has been the best of the group so far this year, he has four home runs and a 125 WRC+ with a .260 ISO and has a 19.6% barrel rate in his 84 plate appearances. The outfielder is inexpensive at $3,400/$2,900, he would be more in play from higher in the batting order.
Seth Lugo has been a very good pitcher, primarily out of the bullpen, for his career. The righty was always capable of stepping into the rotation and providing good innings as a starter or covering multiple innings in relief, and he is getting a full-time starting role to open the season with the Padres missing some rotation pieces. Lugo has been good over his three starts, pitching to a 24.3% strikeout rate and a 3.41 xFIP with a 2.70 ERA. The righty had a 25.4% strikeout rate and 3.51 xFIP while limiting hard hits to just 32.4% over 65 innings entirely out of the bullpen last season. Lugo is facing a quality Diamondbacks lineup, he can be played at $8,500/$9,800, but so can the bats. Arizona’s lineup includes a handful of pesky hitters and they have produced a fair amount of runs despite a lack of major power so far. First baseman Christian Walker has notably struggled to find last year’s form, slashing .222/.253/.361 with a .139 ISO and two home runs. Walker hit 36 home runs with a .235 ISO in 2022 and still regularly hits cleanup for this team. The top trio of Josh Rojas, Ketel Marte, and Corbin Carroll are in play as a group or in connection with Walker in the four spot. Rojas has a 117 WRC+ with a respectable triple-slash to start the season and has been a capably above-average bat over time. Marte is now at a 102 WRC+ with two home runs and one stolen base after a moderate start to his year, while Carroll has been the team’s best overall player. The rookie outfielder has a .271/.311/.514 triple-slash with a .243 ISO and a 117 WRC+, he has hit four home runs and stolen seven bases. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a good bat from later in the lineup who has been priced down somewhat after starting with just an 81 WRC+ over 74 plate appearances. If Pavin Smith plays tonight he can be included with fellow Diamondbacks bats. Smith has made 25 plate appearances and hit two home runs so far this year, he had nine in 277 opportunities last year and was a well-regarded prospect on his way up a few years ago. Gabriel Moreno, Alek Thomas, and Geraldo Perdomo round things out, Perdomo is now sitting at .389/.476/.639 with a .250 ISO and 197 WRC+ over 44 opportunities, he remains cheap as a wraparound option for $3,300/$3,100.
Play: Four corners potential: Zac Gallen, Padres bats, Diamondbacks bats, Seth Lugo all in moderate doses.
Update Notes:
St. Louis Cardinals (+113/3.87) @ Seattle Mariners (-123/.4.23)
Seattle starter George Kirby has posted just a 17.1% strikeout rate in his first three starts this season, but he was strong with a 24.5% rate over 130 innings in 25 starts as a rookie last year and is a talented young pitcher. Kirby has walked just 1.4% so far this year and he issued free passes to only 4.1% of hitters last season, posting an excellent 3.33 xFIP and a 3.39 ERA, he should be expected to find his strikeout form as the sample grows this year and he is fairly inexpensive at $8,900/$8,500 but the matchup against the Cardinals is extremely difficult. St. Louis’ excellent lineup can get to any pitcher, though they come into this one with a limited 3.87 implied team total, putting both sides of the equation somewhat in doubt. The tough both-sides matchup should have Cardinals bats and Kirby both low-owned, which makes them both playable in MLB DFS tournaments as contrarian options, knowing that we are taking good players in tough spots. Between the two, the Cardinals’ bats probably have the slight edge, despite a bad ballpark for hitting. Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson start things off with a pair of left-handed bats, they are at 104 and 111 WRC+ marks to start the season and they correlate strongly with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in the heart of the order. Both stars have hit two home runs so far this year but their output for run creation has been strong, as has the entire lineup. Only Jordan Walker is below average by WRC+ in the Cardinals projected 1-9. Walker is sitting at a 93 in the eighth spot in the lineup, with catcher Willson Contreras at 123 and hitting fifth. Contreras costs $4,500/$2,900, he is too cheap on both sites for a catcher hitting .274/.357/.452 with two home runs and a .177 ISO. Nolan Gorman has major power potential on the left side of the plate, but this park is not great for lefty power overall, which also impacts Lars Nootbaar to some degree. Both players are still carrying solid power marks and good projections despite the ballpark handicap, they are good late lineup options when rostering Cardinals. Tommy Edman is a great wraparound option who has a 120 WRC+ with two home runs but only one stolen base on the season, when his wheels start moving Edman’s value will increase even further. The Cardinals are a mid-range stack today, they are excellent run creators but they are facing a tough pitcher in a bad ballpark. The lineup can be combined in any direction from 1-9 and they should be low-owned, which is appealing.
The Mariners lineup has a better shot at getting to St. Louis lefty Steven Matz. The southpaw is not a bad pitcher, but it is also difficult to call him good, he is mostly average when he gets extended opportunities. In 10 starts and 48 innings last year, Matz had a good 26.1% strikeout rate and pitched to a 3.16 xFIP but a 5.25 ERA on the back of too much power allowed. In 150.2 innings the season before, he had just a 22.3% strikeout rate with a 3.94 xFIP but was better at limiting power, which seems like the tradeoff. Matz has struck out 22.4% over his first 16.2 innings and three starts this season, walking too many at 10.5% and allowing a 49% hard-hit rate and 91.3 mph of average exit velocity to opposing hitters. This should play to Seattle’s right-handed power fairly well. Matz costs $7,300/$7,800, so throwing a few value darts the pitcher’s way is not out of the question, there are strikeouts to be had in the Mariners’ lineup and Matz can deliver infrequent quality, but the odds are firmly with the Mariners hitters. Julio Rodriguez checks in with a .259/.308/.482 triple slash, a .224 ISO, four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 124 WRC+, he is a star at $5,900/$4,000 and should be rostered in all scenarios when looking at Seattle bats. Ty France has a 154 WRC+ and is slashing .316/.398/.474. France offers more power than he is given credit for, he hit 20 home runs last year and makes an excellent correlation piece as well. Eugenio Suarez has two home runs and a 118 WRC+ and is priced down because he has yet to hit for power this season. Teoscar Hernandez is also cheap at $4,700/$2,900, the righty has three home runs nad a .147 ISO with an 88 WRC+ this year, but he hit 25 home runs with a .224 ISO and a 129 WRC+ for the season last year. Cal Raleigh is pulling in a strong mark in the home run model today and is a leading option at the catcher position. Raleigh sits just below the “magic number” at 9.56, but three of the four featured hitters so far are above a 10 in the home run model tonight. A.J. Pollock lands in the latter half of the lineup for a discounted price, while Tom Murphy adds another right-handed power-hitting catcher to the Mariners lineup if he and Raleigh both play. Jose Caballero and JP Crawford are minor assets later in the lineup. Crawford has a 118 WRC+ and is an OK wraparound play despite just a .236/.382/.327 triple-slash, his on-base acumen is what we are after in that scenario.
Play: Mariners stacks/bats, Cardinals bats in smaller doses, minor discounted George Kirby shares
Update Notes:
New York Mets (+103/4.46) @ San Francisco Giants (-111/4.63)
The hot-hitting talented Mets lineup will be facing righty Anthony DeSclafani in the nightcap by the bay this evening. DeSclafani has been good over three starts, pitching to a 2.72 xFIP and a 1.42 ERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate over 19 innings. The righty made just five starts and threw 19 lower-end innings last year, and he was around league-average in 31 starts and 167.2 innings in 2021. DeSclafani had a 22.5% strikeout rate and 3.95 xFIP with a 3.17 ERA and 2.81% home run rate that season, he is a mid-range pitching option when facing lower-end opponents, and he is somewhat in play at a value-based $8,100 on DraftKings tonight. His $10,600 price on FanDuel is completely absurd. The Mets are in play against this pitcher if they are somehow low-owned because the public sees more quality than actually exists in the pitcher, so much the better. Brandon Nimmo has been earning his contract extension over 86 early plate appearances, the outfielder is slashing .368/.488/.500 with a home run and three stolen bases and he has created runs 79% better than average to this point. Nimmo had a .367 on-base percentage and 134 WRC+ last year and a .401 on-base with a 137 WRC+ in 386 plate appearances in 2021, he is one of the best correlation plays and best leadoff hitters in the game. Starling Marte has been dealing with neck soreness and may or may not play, if he is in the Mets lineup he can be in yours. Francisco Lindor has been off to a good start of the season, hitting four home runs and posting a .274 ISO with a 138 WRC+ but he has been overshadowed by the excellence of cleanup hitter Pete Alonso. The slugger blasted another home run last night, his ninth of the season, and he has a .364 ISO with a 175 WRC+ over his first 88 plate appearances. Alonso has a 16.7% barrel rate and a 40% hard-hit rate for the season and is on a 73-home-run pace, he is one of the top power hitters in the game. Jeff McNeil is a hit tool specialist who has been OK out of the gate for MLB DFS production and very good for real-world run creation at a 136 WRC+. Mark Canha and Daniel Vogelbach are low-cost low-popularity options from later in the lineup, either could go deep in this spot but the lefty Vogelbach is the higher-rated option in our home run model. Rookie Brett Baty should return to the lineup tonight and Francisco Alvarez should join him at the bottom of the batting order. Baty is the more ready-now of the two rookies, and Alvarez is filling a void in the Mets’ catching depth chart created by injuries.
Lefty Joey Lucchesi will be making his first start since early 2021 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. He costs $5,400 on the DraftKings slate and is absent from FanDuel this evening. Lucchesi does not seem likely to post a long or strong start in this spot, the Giants have several good right-handed hitters to deploy against him and his depth-of-start expectations are a bit of a mystery. Giants bats are in play, particularly from the right side of the plate. Thairo Estrada costs $5,100/$3,600 as the team’s most expensive player. The infielder is off to a good start following a strong breakout season last year that saw him hit 14 home runs and steal 21 bases. Estrada has three long balls and four bags stolen to his credit over 74 early plate appearances, with a 143 WRC+ but if the price tag is unpalatable even with his multi-position eligibility, he can be skipped in favor of similarly talented options like Wilmer Flores, who has long specialized in blasting home runs and putting up strong MLB DFS scores against lefties. Fellow former Mets Michael Conforto and column-favorite J.D. Davis are also in play, Confroto is an excellent hitter who will lose very little in this same-handed matchup, and Davis has a star power hitter’s contact profile in a career-long sample and is delivering in a full-time role. He is also now the feature of a viral video for his weird hip-thrusting while at the plate and he costs just $4,100/$3,200 at third base tonight. Darin Ruf is one of the Giants’ platoon specialists, he is in play if he is in the lineup with moderate expectations for power. David Villar is a solid right-handed power bat who got the night off last night but should return for just $3,700/$2,900 with second and third base eligibility on DraftKings. Villar hit nine home runs with a .224 ISO in just 181 plate appearances last year. Mike Yastrzemski should hit late in the lineup despite the lefty-lefty, he is a quality power bat who should see some opportunities against bullpen arms as well. Joey Bart and Heliot “it’s pronounced like Elliot” Ramos round out the lineup at very low salaries.
Play: Mets stacks/bats, Giants stacks/bats
Update Notes:
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