The 10-game Wednesday afternoon slate gets rolling at 1:10 ET, which has us in high gear summary mode for today’s article. The slate features a strong mix of power and interesting options on the mound, including one absolutely fascinating debut in Oakland. The slate looks somewhat level in our Power Index, with the Cubs, Brewers, Royals, Cardinals, Braves, Phillies, and Mariners lineups all landing between 7.0 and 8.5 in the home run model for the full lineup averages while teams like the Guardians will have to rely more on sequencing to find their scoring today. And, of course, there is yet another Coors Field game with which to tangle, making it a very deep fun slate from end to end.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 4/19/23
Cleveland Guardians (-140/4.64) @ Detroit Tigers (+129/3.95)
The Guardians were featured in the Power Index for their lack of home run potential, the team sits at the bottom of the home run indicator board today, in a matchup against lousy righty Spencer Turnbull. As has been featured in this space in each of his starts, the righty has an odd ability to keep the ball in the yard over an extended sample, wreaking havoc on the power potential for opposing hitters. Turnbull is neither overly good nor overly reliable, he has a 5.31 xFIP and a 9.00 ERA over his first three starts and 13 innings, and he has struck out just 15.9%, but he has given up just a 1.59% home run rate, one home run to 63 hitters so far, and he had a 1.00% mark in his 50 innings in 2021 and was even better prior to that. Turnbull is not a playable piece in this matchup, the Guardians could easily sequence and run and create runs to chase the starter early, which is what would keep their lineup in play for MLB DFS purposes, but they are something of a thin play tonight. Cleveland’s lineup has mid-range power up and down but few major sluggers, they get by on their ability to put the ball in play and generate runs, but taking the odd long ball out of the equation caps their overall production potential, at least to a degree. Cleveland is a less-than-likely stacking option tonight, but one that is a regular feature across this site and still has plenty of quality. Target-worthy Cleveland bats for sequencing and scoring purposes include Steven Kwan, who is an on-base and balls-in-play machine and a great correlated scoring option; Andres Gimenez, who has a home run and five steals with a 106 WRC+; superstar Jose Ramirez, whose 2.58 in the home run model leads the team today; Josh Naylor and Josh Bell in the heart of the order with a combined three home runs and WRC+ marks of 33 and 88 are struggling but playable when going to this team; while the balance of the lineup is largely filler without Amed Rosario. Will Brennan is an OK option, while Mike Zunino has immense power against any pitcher. Tyler Freeman and Myles Straw are lower-end options on the slate in all respects.
The other side of the contest sees the lowly Tigers facing Cleveland righty Cal Quantrill, who is also a fairly limited pitcher. Quantrill has made three mostly ineffective starts this season, pitching to a 5.73 xFIP and a 5.74 ERA while allowing a 2.67% home run rate and generating just a 12% strikeout rate. Last season he had a 16.6% strikeout mark over a full 186.1 innings in 32 starts, he was at 19.6% in 149.2 innings the year before, but the lower totals seem to be more representative. Quantrill has induced just a 5.9% swinging-strike rate with a 20.6% CSW% one of the worst marks we can remember seeing for strike-throwing. At worst, the Tigers should be able to put the ball in play in this contest, but the team is still looking low-end. Detroit if flashing very little power or MLB DFS point-scoring upside, their primary attributes are that they are cheap and that they are facing a bad contact-oriented pitcher. Nick Maton leads off the projected lineup, he has an 89 WRC+ with three home runs and a .163/.281/.388 triple-slash over 57 plate appearances as one of the team’s better bats early in 2023. Riley Greene has actually been productive, slashing .262/.314/.415 with a 105 WRC+ and two home runs while Javier Baez has not. The veteran shortstop has no home runs and a 42 WRC+ in his 64 plate appearances, he is contributing nothing to the young Tigers and they would be better off without having to pay him, as would MLB DFS gamers on 90% of slates Baez will play this year. Kerry Carpenter has a 26.7% barrel rate and a 53.3% hard-hit rate in his limited 47 plate appearances this year, those would be superstar contact quality numbers if he could maintain the production long-term, which is very unlikely. Still, Carpenter has translated the contact into three home runs and an excellent .310 ISO with a 141 WRC+, he is the team’s best overall bat in this form. Akil Baddoo and Spencer Torkelson are struggling to get their heads above water for run creation in their short samples this season, while Miguel Cabrera is making sure to shake hands with everyone in MLB before his retirement at the end of the season with actually playing good baseball a secondary concern. Zach McKinstry is in the projected lineup and Eric Haase has power potential in most matchups but has not shown much so far this year.
Play: limited shares of Cleveland bats chasing sequencing, run creation, and speed
Update Notes: The Guardians lineup is mostly as expected with Gabriel Arias slotting into the seven spot at $3,000/$2,000 with shortstop and second base eligibility. Miguel Cabrera is out of the Tigers lineup, he will be replaced by Tyler Nevin hitting seventh.
San Francisco Giants (-105/3.80) @ Miami Marlins (-103/3.78)
The free-swinging Giants lineup catches Miami lefty Trevor Rogers coming off the best of his three starts this season. Rogers most recently faced the Diamondbacks, throwing six innings and striking out seven of 24 hitters while allowing just one run on five hits and walking one. Rogers is a talented lefty who has dealt with injuries and been a bit of a roller coaster to this point in his career, but when he is on form he can be nearly elite. The southpaw has a 23.9% strikeout rate in the very short sample of just 15 innings this season and he was at a 22.2% mark over 107 innings and 23 starts last year. The 28.5% that he posted over 133 innings in 25 starts in 2021 is the target when envisioning the upside for a Rogers play. If he can find that form against a lineup that has a current-year average strikeout rate above 25%, Rogers could be in for a strong day for $8,500/$9,100, he is on the board as a pitching option. The Giants lineup will throw right-handed hitters at Rogers, the most dangerous of which is J.D. Davis, who has been mentioned since Opening Day in this space and who is totally delivering on our promises. Davis has four home runs and is slashing .347/.389/.633 with a .286 ISO and a 171 WRC+ in what is finally, probably, hopefully, a full-time role. The slugger has always had a star-caliber power-hitting contact profile, the Giants may have uncovered a bargain. Thairo Estrada, Wilmer Flores, and Darin Ruf are all also former New York area castoffs who play well against left-handed pitching. Estrada and Flores have proven themselves as everyday players, but they are still better in the split, while Ruf is a platoon bat who specializes against lefties. Estrada has three home runs and three stolen bases this year, Flores has two home runs in 48 opportunities, but Ruf has come up empty in his 15 tries so far. David Villar adds a solid right-handed power bat later in the lineup, but he is scuffling at just .176/.288/.392 with an 87 WRC+, his .216 ISO remains encouraging. Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit late in the lineup against same-handed pitching, and the bottom third includes catcher Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos, and Brandon Crawford. Crawford, a lefty shortstop, loses some of his overall power in his ISO against same-handed pitching, but he has hit roughly a third of his career home runs against fellow southpaws, he is not entirely off the board at a cheap price if loading up on Giants hitters, but they are not a great overall option.
The Marlins are facing veteran righty Alex Cobb, who has looked just like Alex Cobb to start the season. The righty has a 22.2% strikeout rate over 14.1 innings in three starts, he had a 23.9% mark in 149.2 last year and a 24.9% rate in 93.1 the year before. He has a 2.76 xFIP and a 1.47 WHIP with a 3.14 ERA, last year he had a 2.89 xFIP with a 1.30 WHIP and a 3.73 ERA. Cobb has allowed plenty of hard hits, sitting at a 48.9% hard-hit rate with a 10.6% barrel rate allowed so far, but he is typically very sharp at keeping the ball down and limiting home runs. Last season, Cobb allowed just a 1.8-degree average launch angle against and a 1.43% home run rate. Those numbers were 3.0 degrees with a 1.27% rate the year before, he is very difficult to hit home runs against, which caps the Marlins’ upside overall. Miami is a better power-hitting team than they are given credit for, and they do not sequence overly well. The team has an average current-year strikeout rate of 23.9% in the projected starting lineup, with several key hitters creating holes when they are not powering the ball out of the yard. Cobb is in play for his salary, he projects well and should at least be able to provide clean innings for $7,700/$8,600. Miami’s bats are less attractive in this one, Cobb is good enough to keep them in check and their home run potential will be largely relegated to plate appearances against the bullpen. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is always playable, particularly at $3,000 on FanDuel. He is a $5,400 outfielder on DraftKings, which is a more difficult asking price. Chisholm is slashing .242/.309/.435 with a .194 ISO and a 102 WRC+, he has three home runs and five stolen bases on the season and is a dynamite fantasy producer when is going right. Garrett Cooper has three home runs and a .194 ISO with a 135 WRC+ in his 65 plate appearances to start the year, he has been a good bat to include alongside Chisholm and the two hitters who add up to one superstar who hit behind him. If the Marlins could hire Rick Sanchez to create them a machine that would blend the DNA of Luis Arraez, perhaps baseball’s best slap-hitter since Ichiro Suzuki, and Jorge Soler, one of the premier power bats in the game, they would really have something. Arraez is slashing .458/.508/.610 with a .153 ISO and a 207 WRC+ while Soler has five home runs and a .386 ISO with a 155 WRC+. The top four options in the Marlins lineup are the best that this team has to offer for stacking. Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez can offer the idea of upside and potential, if not the full reality. Veteran Jean Segura is a middling bat at the end of the lineup these days, joining Nick Fortes in mix-and-match land, but Jon Berti is interesting because of his wheels. Berti has four stolen bases this year and swiped 41 to lead the National League last season.
Play: Alex Cobb value, Trevor Rogers, minor shares of Marlins top-end
Update Notes: LaMonte Wade Jr. slips into the nine spot in the Giants lineup despite the same-handed matchup, he is moderately interesting in that position in the lineup as a wraparound play. Yastrzemski is hitting sixth behind Davis and Villar. The Marlins lineup is mostly as expected, but Garrett Hampson will be in the nine spot with Jean Segura out of the lineup and Jon Berti sliding up to seventh, and Jacob Stallings will do the catching. Avisail Garcia also gets a start in place of Jesus Sanchez, Garcia will hit sixth.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+163/4.33) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-179/5.80)
The Diamondbacks and Cardinals game looks like another spot that could erupt for offense, given the pitching matchup. The home team will have Jake Woodford on the mound, the righty has made three starts this year and has a 16.9% strikeout rate over 14.1 innings. Woodford has pitched to a 1.74 WHIP with a 4.67 xFIP and a 5.65 ERA while generating just a 7.2% swinging-strike rate. The Diamondbacks lineup is too talented to consider many shares of the St. Louis right-hander, even at the extreme discount of $5,500/$6,000, though he did complete 5.1 clean innings of seven-hit ball with three strikeouts against the Pirates in his most recent and best outing of the season. There is not much on the bone with Woodford, but the Diamondbacks lineup could be in play. Arizona hung a nice number on a much better pitcher in Jordan Montgomery last night, they come right back with a projected lineup that is a good value option with low salaries across both sites. Josh Rojas provides quality correlated scoring in the leadoff role for just $4,700/$3,100. Ketel Marte is back to league average for run creation after a slow start to the year, the second baseman is now slashing .250/.294/.469 with two home runs and he has a terrific .219 ISO supporting the idea of quality. Marte hits in front of Pavin Smith in the projected lineup, Smith dropped in from the sky at an extreme discount to homer in last night’s game after a quick mention in our update notes when the lineup was confirmed. The first baseman remains inexpensive at $3,100/$2,400, he has a home run in his 20 plate appearances this year and hit nine in 277 tries last year. Smith showed mid-range power and an advanced approach at the plate in the minors but has yet to fully arrive in the Show, he is playing his age-27 season so it’s now or never for the cheap slugger. Christian Walker and Corbin Carroll are probably the two most important names in the Arizona lineup most days. Walker hit 36 home runs last year but has scuffled out of the gate in 2023, Carroll is the team’s prized prospect, he has four home runs and six stolen bases through 64 plate appearances this year. Jake McCarthy can provide speed on the left side of the plate, Gabriel Moreno hit last night’s frustrating sub-1% owned home run of the day, and Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo can provide some sneaky talent if they are hitting at the bottom of the batting order as projected. Perdomo may have finally arrived, he is slashing .357/.471/.571 with a home run, a stolen base, a .214 ISO, and a 181 WRC+ in the very early returns on a 36-plate appearance sample.
With Madison Bumgarner taking the mound, the Cardinals’ projected lineup is very much in play from top to bottom. The team gave their two stars each a day off over the last two, so both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado should be available for this one, they are killer plays in the heart of the Cardinals lineup against this starter. Goldschmidt has a 168 WRC+ over 78 plate appearances, Arenado has a 116 mark in the same number of tries, and they both have two home runs to start the season. Bumgarner has been a mess for several seasons after a litany of freak injuries derailed his career. He is currently sitting at an 11.4% strikeout rate with a 7.07 xFIP and a 2.12 WHIP in his 13.2 innings over three starts. Bumgarner has walked 15.7%, more than he has struck out to this point, and he is yielding a 4.29% home run rate with a 14% barrel rate. This is not a good pitcher or a playable option on the slate, bats should be heavily rostered against him. Brendan Donovan is projected to leadoff despite the same-handed matchup, Donovan scratched before yesterday’s game however, so we may see Tommy Edman in the spot, either player is an option, they both would provide speed and correlated scoring with upside for individual production. After the pair of superstars at the corners, the Cardinals’ lineup includes a great run of less expensive high-end options. Willson Contreras is too cheap at $4,300/$2.400, he can be played like a regular bat on the blue site and is an excellent catching option where the position is required. Contreras leads into Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, and Taylor Motter in the projected lineup, with only Motter coming up as an “eh” option. If Nolan Gorman starts against the weak lefty he would absolutely be in play as well. The Cardinals are a top option for stacking again today.
Play: Cardinals bats aggressively, Diamondbacks bats, no pitching.
Update Notes: Tommy Edman is in fact leading off with Donovan on the bench today. Dylan Carlson hits second and the lineup includes both Willson Contreras and Andrew Knizner at the catcher position, with Contreras DHing in a day game following a night game. Arizona gives a small bump to Corbin Carroll hitting third, Pavin Smith drops to sixth. Jose Herrera will do the catching today.
Texas Rangers (+101/4.49) @ Kansas City Royals (-109/4.61)
The Rangers are facing Brady Singer in Kansas City today in a game that Vegas is seeing somewhat level, with a slight lean toward the worse Royals, despite Singer’s early troubles this season. The righty has made only one truly bad start in his three tries, he struck out eight Braves hitters in his last outing, but also yielded a whopping 10 hits and eight earned runs – with four home runs included in the 10 hits – over five innings. The start before that one was not good either, Singer allowed five earned runs with a home run and only struck out four Giants hitters over six innings, but he at least got through six. Texas is another tough opponent for the young starter, but Singer showed encouraging signs of growth last year and should find his form in the long term. Over 153.1 innings in 2022, Singer posted a 24.2% strikeout rate with a 3.30 xFIP and a 3.23 ERA, he is capable of getting through this lineup and finding strikeouts on the way, for $7,100/$7,300 Singer is on the value pitcher list today. Texas bats should be rostered against him as well, however, the team has plenty of power that they have put on display in recent games in the absence of Corey Seager, as if to let the league know that they are still a threat. The projected lineup includes Marcus Semien, who now has four home runs and a .229 ISO with a 128 WRC+ after a quick turnaround in the short season to date. Travis Jankowski is a correlated scoring and speed option hitting second ahead of Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia, who make up the primary power core after Semien. Lowe had two home runs with a .183 ISO while Garcia is now at four with a .203 mark. Both players have slipped below average for run creation, but they will likely return to the positive side in short order. Josh Jung has a 6.93 in our home run model, ranking him third on the team today. Jung has three home runs and a .190 ISO to start his year. Jonah Heim is a good power bat at the catcher position for $3,500/$3.100, while the bottom of the projected lineup includes less appealing Robbie Grossman, Josh Smith, and Leody Taveras, the last of whom again makes a compelling case for shares as a wraparound play with his speed.
The Royals power-hitting lineup is drawing solid home run marks against lefty Martin Perez. The southpaw has made three starts this season, striking out 23.2% of opposing hitters with a 4.01 xFIP and a 1.60 WHIP on the back of an inflated 10.1% walk rate. The strikeouts seem slightly high, but the walks are as well in the small sample. Perez has allowed a 4.35% home run rate but just a 34.8% hard-hit and 4.3% barrel rates, his track record for allowing home runs goes up and down in varying years, it is somewhat difficult to nail down the exact nature of the opportunity, but the home run model likes the Royals side of the equation at least as much as the pitching model is saying Perez could find value at $7,400 on the DraftKings slate. The $9,600 that FanDuel wants for the lefty is a tall order, particularly when cast against the power flashing in the Royals lineup, but Perez could easily make SP2 value at the DraftKings number. On the Royals side, all four of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Sal Perez, and Franmil Reyes are over the “magic number” of 10 in the home run model, landing at 11.15, 10.90, 11.44, and 11.47 respectively. Edward Olivares is in the two-hole in the projected lineup, he has a healthy 8.34 in the home run model. The young outfielder has hit one homer and he is slashing .256/.304/.395 with an 86 WRC+ overall, but he would be in play if he hits toward the top of the lineup amidst the team’s power bats and run creators. Reyes has two home runs and a .154 ISO and is likely to be lower-owned despite a cheap $2,700/$2,300 price tag, he could drive the ball against this lefty. The bottom of the lineup falls off around Matt Duffy, Hunter Dozier, Nate Eaton, and Jackie Bradley Jr.
Play: Minor shares of all four corners, Brady Singer value, Martin Perez value on DraftKings, Rangers 1-6 bats, Royals 1-5 bats
Update Notes: The Royals lineup is mostly as expected, with MJ Melendez adding another quality power bat despite the lefty-lefty. Melendez slides to sixth behind the expected 1-5 hitters, extending the potential stack by a lineup spot. Duffy, Dozier, and Bradley remain mix-and-match parts in the lower third. The Rangers lineup is mostly as expected, but Ezequiel Duran adds another interesting mid-range power/speed name to the bottom third of the lineup at the dead minimum with third base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings and for just $2,100 at third or second base on the blue site.
Philadelphia Phillies (-107/4.33) @ Chicago White Sox (-101/4.26)
The Phillies look like a strong option for a good game against White Sox righty Mike Clevinger, who has made three starts and thrown 16.1 innings for his new team so far this season. Clevinger has a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 14.1% walk rate in the short sample, over 114.1 innings last year he had an 18.8% strikeout rate, he is not the same pitcher he once was before injuries and absence. Clevinger has a 5.82 xFIP under his deceptive 2.20 ERA for the young season, he is yet to allow a home run but he is targetable for power upside with his extreme flyball nature, particularly against a team like the Phillies. Clevinger does not look like a strong play, even for value at $7,900 on DraftKings his upside potential is not great. He could squeak through with a clean enough score to be worth a few darts at that price, but he is a low priority pitcher. At $9,900 on FanDuel he is off the board. The Phillies lineup lost several key bats and just keeps on rolling, six of the nine projected hitters are carrying run creation marks well above average so far this season, and rumors are that Bryce Harper will beat his projected return date by multiple weeks, the Phillies will be in the mix all season. Trea Turner is worth the salary at $6,100, he is cheap on FanDuel for $3,600. Turner hits behind Bryson Stott in the projected lineup. Stott is a strong correlation piece with mid-range power and speed. He hit 10 home runs and stole 12 bags last year and has one home run with three steals in his 81 opportunities this year. Stott has created runs 27% better than average. Turner is below average for run creation so far this year after a slow start for power, he has just a .079 ISO and no home runs, but the bat is otherwise fine and the power will come. The pair hit in front of Kyle Schwarber, whose big lefty bat is leading the home run model for Philadelphia at a massive 15.39. Schwarber has an excellent chance at a home run against a contact-oriented flyball pitcher like Clevinger. Nick Castellanos is another player who we do not want to jinx by proclaiming him to be fully back, but signs are pointed firmly in that direction. Castellanos has yet to homer but he can’t stop hitting doubles this season, he has a .132 ISO but a 122 WRC+ while slashing .294/.385/.426. Brandon Marsh and JT Realmuto add quality to the heart of the lineup, Marsh has a 190 WRC+ while slashing .358/.414/.698 with a titanic .340 ISO to start the year, Realmuto has scuffled to a degree but still has two home runs for the year. Alec Bohm is the last target name in the lineup, the former first-round pick is a solid bat who is never expensive or popular, he is a great way to differentiate Philadelphia stacks. Bohm has created runs 56% better than average to this point in the season. Jake Cave and Edmundo Sosa are mix-and-match parts.
The solid White Sox lineup is also in play, with righty Taijuan Walker on the mound for the Phillies. Walker has a 21.5% strikeout rate and has allowed just a 1.54% home run rate over his 15 innings in three starts, but he is a largely league-average pitcher. That may be enough for a cheaper salary, but Walker costs $9,900 on the DraftKings slate. For $8,000 on the FanDuel slate, there is some minor argument for a few darts, but Walker is probably best left to the side in this matchup. The middling strikeout rates and propensity for allowing sequencing and run creation hamstring any potential upside. The Chicago projected lineup includes excellent hit-and-speed options in Andrew Benintendi and Luis Robert Jr. in the top spots. The outfielders cost $4,000/$2,800 and $5,200/$3,800, Robert is off to the better start for the higher salary, he has five home runs and a 125 ISO for the year. Benintendi has been more of a correlation piece to this point, but he is a cheap option in a good lineup. Andrew Vaughn has yet to homer this season, nor has Eloy Jimenez, who missed time with an injury. Both sluggers come at a discount and should be considered against a pitcher of this nature. Vaugh hit 17 home runs in 555 plate appearances with a .159 ISO and 113 WRC+ last year, Jimenez had 16 homers in just 327 plate appearances with a .205 ISO and a 144 WRC+ and is always excellent when he is not injured, which is roughly 30% of the time. Yasmani Grandal is off to a better start this year than what we saw from him last season, he has a 121 WRC+ and is a good cheap catcher who gets on base and correlates well with other options. Jake Burger has been raking over 30 plate appearances, he has five home runs and a .654 ISO in the microscopic sample, which we hope you enjoyed because that level of offensive production absolutely will not continue for very long. Oscar Colas is a playable rookie but he has yet to find his footing, Lenyn Sosa and Elvis Andrus are at a 34 and a 39 WRC+ for the season so far, and Andrus continues to suck.
Play: Phillies bats fairly aggressively, some White Sox 1-7 bats
Update Notes: Both lineups are confirmed in their expected forms.
New York Mets (-122/4.48) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+113/4.11)
The Mets and Dodgers square off in an interesting pitching matchup that pits former Mets starter Noah Syndergaard against current ace Max Scherzer. Syndergaard has been out to a good start to his season, he has a 24.3% strikeout rate with just a 2.9% walk rate over 16 innings in three starts. The righty has generated a 12.3% swinging-strike rate, which is up nicely from the 9.1% with a 16.8% strikeout rate that he posted over 134.2 innings last season. Syndergaard has struggled to return to form over the past few seasons, but this far out from his injuries and absences, we could be seeing the beginnings of something. The righty was never the apex predator that Scherzer typically is, but he was very good for an extended stretch and has always been talented at limiting opposing offenses even when not finding strikeouts. Syndergaard costs just $6,500 on the DraftKings slate, which is a great value buy for this pitcher even against a good lineup like New York’s. Syndergaard is also in play at $8,200 on the blue site, he has demonstrated the ability to chase the quality start bonus, which will be important, if he has a few strikeouts in his pocket along the way he could provide a valuable score at the price. The Mets are playable against him, but they do not look like a priority stacking option. Only slugger Pete Alonso in the cleanup spot chases the magic number in our home run model, falling just short at 9.72. Alonso is a star power hitter with eight home runs in his 79 plate appearances, he is always in play, but Syndergaard is not the easiest starter to go yard against. Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte are strong correlation options who have mid-range power and good speed atop the lineup to go with their hit tool and on-base acumen, and they hit in front of Alonso and Francisco Lindor, the Mets star shortstop. Lindor slots in third with four home runs and seven stolen bases already this season, he is fairly priced at $5,200/$4,200, perhaps a bit cheap on DraftKings. Jeff McNeil and Mark Canha are correlation pieces from the middle of the projected batting order, while Eduardo Escobar and Daniel Vogelbach can provide power in spots here and there. Rookies Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez round out the projected lineup with their buzzy names. Baty is the more ready-now option, he costs $2,200/$2,500, Alvarez still looks undercooked filling in for the Mets missing catchers.
With Max Scherzer on the mound it is difficult to recommend the Dodgers star-laden lineup with any real sincerity. The team is never fully out of play, they have the talent to get to any starting pitcher, but Scherzer is one of the game’s best, despite early blips this year. Playable Dodgers include the obvious top end, with Mookie Betts likely to return to the lineup, potentially as a shortstop in the real-life game today, and Freddie Freeman as a dynamic duo (apologies to Batman, less so to Robin) atop the Dodgers lineup. After that pair, J.D. Martinez may be overmatched at this point in his career, but Max Muncy has massive power potential against anyone. Jason Heyward, Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Miguel Rojas, and Austin Barnes are less playable parts later in the lineup. Scherzer is very much an option despite the stiff opponent. The righty comes at something of a discount with a $10,800/$10,200 salary today. Scherzer has made three starts and has a 5.29 xFIP with a 4.41 ERA in his 16.1 innings. He has allowed a 43.2% hard-hit rate and a 13.6% barrel rate, resulting in a 6.15% home run rate with a 91.3mph average exit velocity allowed so far, and none of it really matters. Scherzer is a proven commodity and three of the home runs allowed came in his one truly lousy start of the season against the Brewers. Scherzer yielded five earned runs on eight hits including the three homers and struck out just two in 5.1 innings in that start, in his other two outings he struck out six Marlins and six Padres hitters and allowed a total of three earned runs (all to Miami in the first start) over 11.0 innings. Scherzer is fine, he had a 30.6% strikeout rate and a 3.23 xFIP last year and was at a 34.1% strikeout mark the season before, play him at the price and hope the field looks in other directions.
Play: Max Scherzer, some Noah Syndergaard, and very limited contrarian bats on both sides(?)
Update Notes:
Pittsburgh Pirates (-117/6.00) @ Colorado Rockies (+108/5.63)
The game in Coors Field is carrying an 11.5-run total on the board in Vegas, which is by far the highest of the day, but is also 1.5 runs lower than yesterday’s mark. The teams involved are still both bad, despite the ballpark’s impact on their offensive output over the last two days, but the starting pitching is slightly better, with Austin Gomber and Johan Oviedo taking the mound for their respective teams. Gomber has a 16.7% strikeout rate and a 5.55 xFIP over 14.1 innings in three starts, he was at an 18% strikeout rate with a 4.19 xFIP over 124.2 innings in 17 outings last year. Oviedo has a 3.43 xFIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate over 18.1 innings in his three starts this year, marking him the more interesting of the pair for those inclined to live dangerously. Oviedo posted a 4.14 xFIP with a 22.3% strikeout rate over 56 innings in eight starts last year, he may be for real but this is a bad environment for pitching, even at $6,900 on DraftKings. Oviedo is a playable value part in small doses on that site, but the $9,300 on FanDuel is another tough ask on the blue site. As usual, the story with Coors field is much more about bats.
The visiting Pirates projected lineup sees Ke’Bryan Hayes in the leadoff spot again. Hayes is cheap at $4,200/$2,900 but he has just a 70 WRC+ for the season with a .136 ISO and one home run. Hayes has not been great and has not delivered on his prospect pedigree to this point in his career. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen are both having excellent starts to their seasons, Reynolds has five home runs though he has cooled off in the power department in the last week, while McCutchen has hit three of his own and has three stolen bases to boot. They are creating runs 39% and 52% above average so far. Carlos Santana and Connor Joe can both drive the ball and they have both been above average for run creation to start the season as well, with help from the recent Coors games. Rodolfo Castro slots in above Mark Mathias, Ji-Hwan Bae, and Jason Delay to round out the Pirates lineup. Castro is slashing .317/.429/.463 with a 147 WRC+ so far this season, he was a 102 WRC+ hitter with 11 home runs in just 278 opportunities last year and remains under-appreciated, even at Coors Field, for MLB DFS. On the Rockies’ side, Jurickson Profar leads off with middling quality in both the correlated and individual scoring categories. Profar can produce from time to time, but overall there is a reason he didn’t find a job until the last week of camp. Kris Bryant is still a star and his power gear kicked in for the season, Bryant hit another home run last night and has three on the season. Charlie Blackmon and C.J. Cron offer power through the middle but they are not the best for sequencing when they fail to drive the ball. Both the lefty outfielder and righty first baseman are strong options when stacking Rockies bats however, and they could be under-owned if the field awards too much respect in Oviedo’s direction. If the Rockies come up at all under-projected for popularity around the industry they make for a strong play. Ryan McMahon has a .233 ISO and three home runs, and Elias Diaz has hit two long balls and is slashing .345/.400/.545 with a .200 ISO and 141 WRC+ as a cheap catcher. Elehuris Montero has a 5.32 in our home run model from late in the lineup, he is a better option than Ezequiel Tovar and he hits for more power than Yonathan Daza, though Daza has the better hit tool. Both of these teams are in play once again because of the ballpark.
Play: bats, bats, bats. Oviedo shares for the bold.
Update Notes: The confirmed Rockies lineups gives a bump to the Oviedo play with no CJ Cron, no Elias Diaz, no Yonathan Daza, and no Elehuris Montero. They are replaced by Mike Moustakas hitting fifth, Alan Trejo hitting sixth, Harold Castro in the seven spot, and Brian Serven hitting ninth. Downgrade to Rockies bats, a minor upgrade to Oviedo, but it is still risky.
Chicago Cubs @ Oakland Athletics
This game is going to be fascinating, the Athletics are starting a total mystery on the mound and the Cubs are leading the Power Index today, but they may also strike out a dozen times and get shut down completely. Chicago has had a good start to their week in Oakland, and they seem primed to continue things against rookie starter Mason Miller who is making his MLB debut this afternoon. Miller has one of the shortest professional track records we can remember for a pitcher reaching the Major Leagues. The starter was a third-round pick in 2021 and he threw six innings in action in the developmental complex league. In 2022, Miller threw a total of 14 innings, two in the complex league, seven at high-A, and five in AAA after being sidelined for almost the entire season with a shoulder injury. The righty has electric stuff, he struck out seven of the 18 hitters he faced in the AAA start last year, and he had a lone AAA start this season that saw him strike out 11 of 16 hitters over five no-hit shutout innings. Miller made that start and had one 3.2-inning outing at AA this season, and that is the entirety of his professional track record, a grand total of 28.2 innings. By all accounts, Miller’s stuff is ready out of the box, but this is an almost unprecedented leap in class for a pitcher who has seen very little professional action. Miller could dominate and post a strong score, although he is not available on either DraftKings or FanDuel, the odds are more strongly with the Cubs bats in this one. Even if Miller succeeds for four or five innings, the Cubs will have ample opportunity to tee off against the Oakland bullpen. Nico Hoerner is not a major power hitter, but he is pulling in a 5.80 in our home run model and hit 10 with a lowly .129 ISO last year. Hoerner is more of a correlated scoring play who adds points with his speed, he has nine steals already this year. Dansby Swanson is one of the top power-hitting shortstops in baseball, he hit 25 home runs last year and 27 the season before. Swanson has no home runs on the board this year, but he is sitting at 10.22 and looks like a strong play in this one. Despite the lack of production in the long ball department, Swanson has created runs 29% better than average and has an 11.6% barrel rate, the power is coming and the production is already high-quality. Ian Happ has hit two home runs and is slashing .311/411/.508 with a .197 ISO to start the season. Happ is an underrated performer who is rarely popular or overly expensive, the outfielder checks in at $5,000/$3,400 in this one, and he is carrying a 9.90 in the home run model. Seiya Suzuki missed time at the start of the season but he is slashing .350/.459/.500 with a home run in his very limited 24 plate appearance sample. Suzuki hit 15 home runs and stole nine bases in 446 plate appearances last season, he is a good buy in the middle of the Cubs lineup. Cody Bellinger is back!… actually, let’s not jinx it, we’ll rephrase to: Is Cody Bellinger back? The outfielder seems to be making it official to start this week, he currently sits at .302/.357/.492 with a .190 ISO, a 127 WRC+, and three home runs, to which he has added three stolen bases. The former MVP is at 9.70 in the home run model, hitting between Suzuki and masher Patrick Wisdom, who hit two home runs two days ago and has eight on the season. Wisdom leads the team with a 12.03 in the home run model, slightly above the 11.96 carried by Suzuki. Eric Hosmer, Edwin Rios, and Tucker Barnhart offer power upside in limited doses. Rios is the highest graded of those three options in our home run model at a 9.09, the infielder is a $2,700/$2,300 option who hit seven home runs with a .256 ISO in just 92 plate appearances last year.
The Cubs answer Miller with Justin Steele, their left-handed nominal ace who checks in at a fair $9,700 on DraftKings and a whopping slate-leading $11,300 on the FanDuel slate. The blue site is clearly pricing up starters for their matchup against what amounts to a quad-A baseball team, Marcus Stroman was at an absurd price for his talents last night, and Steele is carrying a monster number for his short track record. That is how good the matchup against Oakland truly is, the lefty is in play on both sites today. Steele has made three starts, covering 19 innings with quality. He has a 3.42 xFIP and a sparkling 1.42 ERA on the season and he has struck out 26.4% of opposing hitters while posting a sterling 0.84 WHIP and inducing a 14.1% swinging-strike rate. Steele had a 24.6% strikeout rate and a 3.48 xFIP over 119 innings and 24 starts in a breakout last year, and he seems to be taking another step in early returns. There is a significant upside for him against this team, he projects as the top pitching option on the board for raw fantasy points, ownership and pricing/available bat combinations are the only factors in deciding whether to include him in a lineup. The Athletics are a very low-end option for bats, they can be left out entirely so as not to occupy valuable real estate, but that is not the recommended approach, it always makes sense to leave a little room for the “baseball” of it all, the only front from which this team will be worthwhile all season. Athletics bats of note include Esteury Ruiz if he is leading off again, Ramon Laureano, the somehow already overrated Brent Rooker, and Jesus Aguilar, with Aledmys Diaz and Shea Langeliers offering minor price and positional appeal if required to fill out a full Athletics stack by a sadist dangling you over a pit of vipers. This is not a good team and it is not a good idea to play them.
Play: Cubs bats, Justin Steele. Mason Miller is not available on either site.
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+116/4.07) @ Seattle Mariners (-125/4.51)
The Brewers are yet another excellent option for bats today. The team is carrying just a 4.07 implied run total, but that seems slightly off in a matchup against pincushion pitcher Marco Gonzales, who has a long track record of allowing far too much power and premium contact, and not striking anyone out. Gonzales is pitching to form so far this season, he has a 5.36 xFIP and a 4.22 ERA with just a 13% strikeout rate in his 10.2 innings over two starts. The southpaw had a 13.2% strikeout rate in 183 innings and 32 starts last year and was at 18.5% in 143.1 innings two years ago. Gonzales is targetable for power and for sequencing, he had a 1.33 WHIP last season and is sitting at a 1.59 in the early days of 2023 in an unfairly small sample. The Brewers lineup includes several intriguing options in this matchup, even with potential lefty-lefty combinations. The projected lineup has platoon specialist Mike Brosseau ascending to the leadoff spot, which would be an interesting place for the hitter. Brosseau is slashing .259/.355/.556 with a .296 ISO and a 141 WRC+ with two home runs in his 31 plate appearances. For his career, Brosseau has a .339 on-base percentage and a .203 ISO with a 125 WRC+ against left-handed pitching. Power-packed shortstop Willy Adames slots in second, Adames has four home runs and a .221 ISO with a 130 WRC+ so far this year, he hit 31 home runs last year and 25 the season before with an ISO regularly around .220, Adames is an excellent option at $5,300/$3,500. Christian Yelich‘s power bat might be coming around, he has three home runs on the season and a .147 ISO with a 96 WRC+ but he has a 57.1% hard hit rate and is showing signs of at least knowing that he has to elevate the ball. William Contreras is a good catching option who sits at a 9.74 in our home run model today. Only Adames cracks the 10 mark with his 11.46, but four other Brewers are between 8.0 and the 9.94 carried by Luke Voit who follows Contreras in the projected lineup. Voit has been overrated since his 2020 season, when he led baseball with 22 home runs in the stupid 60-game COVID season, he has not put that same level of production on display since, but he does have respectable intermittent power potential. Voit has no home runs and a .030 ISO this season, but he hit 22 with a .176 ISO in 568 opportunities last year, which is about the hitter that he truly is. Brian Anderson is off to a great start and he remains inexpensive at $3,400/$3,100, Garrett Mitchell may get the day off with a lefty on the mound and after taking a bump last night, while Owen Miller and Joey Wiemer are mix-and-match parts.
The Mariners will be facing lefty Eric Lauer, a capable arm who will be greatly challenged by this team. Lauer has a 22.7% strikeout rate over 15.1 innings this year with a 4.77 xFIP, he had a 23.8% rate with a 4.08 xFIP over 158.2 innings last season. The southpaw projects into the middle of the board when it comes to starters on this slate. He costs $9,200/$8,800 and is probably more in play as a lightly owned angle on the blue site than he is an expensive option in a mediocre spot on DraftKings. Lauer is not off the board, but the play would be very thin against a high-quality lineup that rolls out a number of significant right-handed bats. Not the least of those righties is Julio Rodriguez, last year’s Rookie of the Year and an immediate star in MLB. Rodriguez has three home runs and four stolen bases this year for $5,900/$4,000, he is pricey but worthwhile. Ty France is criminally underrated for MLB DFS purposes and he lands at an affordable price around the industry. The first baseman has created runs 56% better than average so far this season, he is a great correlation play. Eugenio Suarez has two home runs on the season, that number will increase as his triple-slash’s front-end number (batting average) decreases over time. Suarez has created runs 17% better than average even with the power largely out early on this season. Teoscar Hernandez and A.J. Pollock are playable outfielders, with Hernandez being the better option of the two. He has three home runs this season but has been 10% below average in creating runs so far, this is another stat that is almost certain to turn around as time goes on, Herandnez is a proven contributor who hit 25 home runs with a 129 WRC+ last season. Tom Murphy has power for days but rarely puts things together at this level, he is a viable cheap catcher where they are needed. J.P. Crawford, Cooper Hummel, and Jose Caballero round out the projected lineup in diminishing quality.
Play: Brewers stacks aggressively, some shares of Seattle bats, maybe some Lauer value but it is thin
Update Notes:
Atlanta Braves (-114/4.66) @ San Diego Padres (+106/4.43)
A matchup between two of the top teams in the National League rounds out the day with the Braves facing Padres righty Nick Martinez. The starter posted a 21.2% strikeout rate with a 4.04 xFIP and a 3.35% home run rate over 10 starts and 106.1 innings last year, and he has scuffled to just a 14.1% strikeout rate with a 5.10 xFIP in his first three starts this season, covering 17.2 mediocre innings. Martinez has allowed a 12.3% barrel rate with a 5.13% home run rate so far this season, but his hard-hit mark is just 28.1%, meaning that outside of the home runs he has not given up much power in the form of line drives and doubles. Martinez is a below-average pitcher overall, he is a career journeyman who has pitched on multiple continents. The Braves are sitting fifth in a tightly-packed top of the Power Index, and their top three hitters are all carrying numbers above 10 in the home run model, Atlanta could provide late-afternoon fireworks for MLB DFS tournaments. Martinez does not seem overly playable, there is a touch of strikeout upside against the Braves, but he is not a likely pitcher to capitalize on it and he is probably more in danger than there is any potential for quality. Go-to Atlanta bats have been abundant in this space all season so far, this will not change as the year goes on, the Braves are very good. Ronald Acuna Jr. costs $6,500/$4,700 and has created runs 70% better than average with three home runs and seven steals for the season. Matt Olson has mashed six home runs and created runs 74% better than average, and Austin Riley has four home runs with a .206 ISO and a 134 WRC+ behind him. That trio of stars is followed by catcher Sean Murphy who should land in the lineup as a DH even if he gets a day off behind the plate. Murphy has a fantastic bat for his position, he has hit four home runs this season in just 65 plate appearances and has a gargantuan .373 ISO with a team-leading 181 WRC+ this season. Murphy is one of the top catcher options on any MLB DFS slate, he is very playable for $3,500 on the blue site despite his position and his $4,800 on DraftKings is too low. Eddie Rosario returns to the projected lineup, he has struggled this season but is a quality veteran with mid-range power. Ozzie Albies is an excellent second baseman whose bat has come to life in recent games, he should be hitting in the heart of the lineup ahead of rookie Vaughn Grissom, who is cheap at $3,900/$2,800, with multi-position eligibility on FanDuel. Grissom has slashed .316/.381/.368 and created runs eight percent better than average over his first 21 plate appearances since his promotion. Sam Hilliard is another sneaky-good option if he is hitting late in the lineup. The outfielder has filled in ably for Michael Harris II during the star’s injury. Hilliard is slashing .345/.457/.552 with a .207 ISO and a home run with two stolen bases, creating runs 72% better than average in his tiny sample of 35 plate appearances.
The last starter to talk about today is Atlanta veteran Charlie Morton, who has been a bit bumpy out of the gate in 2023. The righty has not been as completely inept as may be advertised around the industry, he has pitched into the sixth inning twice, but completed it only once, and he has allowed just two earned runs in two of his starts and three in the other. Morton’s first outing of the year was rough against the Cardinals, he struck out only one and that was the game in which he gave up three runs, but he walked just two and threw 5.1 innings against a very tough lineup in that game. Against these same Padres in a home start, Morton struck out six and walked three, pitching five innings and yielding six hits and two earned runs. Against the Royals he racked up five strikeouts and completed six innings of two-run six-hit ball while walking two and booking a quality start. While all of that adds up to a 15.2% strikeout rate and a 5.32 xFIP, Morton may not be completely shot just yet, and he is at a discounted price tag of $8,800/$9,000 in this matchup. Morton had a 28.2% strikeout rate just last year, there is reason to have faith in the starter, if he is projected for low ownership around the industry he will be worth more shares than the field is buying. The Padres lineup has three excellent hitters up top and a lot of smoke and mirrors the rest of the way. If Morton gets through the trio of Manny Machado, Juan Soto, and Xander Bogearts, no easy task, he will be facing names like Trent Grisham, who is “fine” at best; Matt Carpenter, who was out of baseball before a stunning and likely tank-emptying return for a portion of last year; Jake Cronenworth who is also “fine”; Ha-Seong Kim, Rougned Odor, and Austin Nola. Murderer’s Row that ain’t. Of course, Machado, Soto, and Bogaerts are three of the best hitters in baseball and they will come up three times against Morton if he is going right. Machado has struggled to just .240/.275/.320 early on but he was a .298/.366/.531 hitter with 32 home runs and a 152 WRC+ last season and has been an All-Star essentially since entering the league. Soto is slashing just .175/.366/.365 but still creates runs six percent better than average, he will find his elite hit tool soon enough. Bogarerts has been the best of the bunch this year, slashing .347/.422/.556 with a .208 ISO, four home runs, and a 167 WRC+. The rest of the Padres lineup as featured are mix-and-match parts, this would include Nelson Cruz if he plays today.
Play: Braves bats aggressively, some Charlie Morton, minor top-4 Padres shares
Update Notes:
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