An early 1:10 ET MLB DFS main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel has the industry in high gear this morning. The slate features 10 games, with action rolling through the 4 pm start-time window. This should leave several later lineups unconfirmed going into the slate’s lock, which can always create opportunities for under-owned options, but not quite as much as we see in other sports. The slate features a broad range of similar-looking mid-range power, with a total mystery leading the way in the form of the Cubs against Oakland rookie hurler Mason Miller. The matchups against weak lefties for both the Brewers and Cardinals look like strong spots to exploit for power and run-creation potential, there could be a fantasy point bonanza in one of those contests. Of course, the slate also had to go and include the Coors Field game, so we have that wildcard to deal with as well when it comes to offense.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/19/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The Cubs have had a good start to their week in Oakland, and they seem primed to continue things, leading today’s power index against Oakland rookie starter Mason Miller who is making his MLB debut this afternoon. Miller has one of the shortest professional track records we can remember for a pitcher reaching the Major Leagues. The starter was a third-round pick in 2021 and he threw six innings in action in the developmental complex league. In 2022, Miller threw a total of 14 innings, two in the complex league, seven at high-A, and five in AAA after being sidelined for almost the entire season with a shoulder injury. The righty has electric stuff, he struck out seven of the 18 hitters he faced in the AAA start last year, and he had a AAA start this season that saw him strike out 11 of 16 hitters over five no-hit shutout innings. Miller made that start and had one 3.2-inning outing at AA this season, and that is the entirety of his professional track record, a grand total of 28.2 innings. By all accounts, Miller’s stuff is ready out of the box, but this is an almost unprecedented leap in class for a pitcher who has seen very little professional action. Miller could dominate and post a strong score, although he is not available on either DraftKings or FanDuel, but the odds are more strongly with the Cubs bats in this one. Even if Miller succeeds for four or five innings, the Cubs will have ample opportunity to tee off against the Oakland bullpen. Nico Hoerner is not a major power hitter, but he is pulling in a 5.80 in our home run model and hit 10 with a lowly .129 ISO last year. Hoerner is more a correlated scoring play who adds points with his speed, he has nine steals already this year. Dansby Swanson is one of the top power-hitting shortstops in baseball, he hit 25 home runs last year and 27 the season before. Swanson has no home runs on the board this year, but he is sitting at 10.22 and looks like a strong play in this one. Despite the lack of production in the long ball department, Swanson has created runs 29% better than average and has an 11.6% barrel rate, the power is coming and the production is already high-quality. Ian Happ has hit two home runs and is slashing .311/411/.508 with a .197 ISO to start the season. Happ is an underrated performer who is rarely popular or overly expensive, the outfielder checks in at $5,000/$3,400 in this one, he is carrying a 9.90 in the home run model. Seiya Suzuki missed time at the start of the season but he is slashing .350/.459/.500 with a home run in his very limited 24 plate appearance sample. Suzuki hit 15 home runs and stole nine bases in 446 plate appearances last season, he is a good buy in the middle of the Cubs lineup. Cody Bellinger is back!… actually, let’s not jinx it, we’ll rephrase to: Is Cody Bellinger back? The outfielder seems to be making it official to start this week, he currently sits at .302/.357/.492 with a .190 ISO, a 127 WRC+, and three home runs, to which he has added three stolen bases. The former MVP is at 9.70 in the home run model, hitting between Suzuki and masher Patrick Wisdom, who hit two home runs two days ago and has eight on the season. Wisdom leads the team with a 12.03 in the home run model, slightly above the 11.96 carried by Suzuki. Eric Hosmer, Edwin Rios, and Tucker Barnhart offer power upside in limited doses. Rios is the highest graded of those three options in our home run model at a 9.09, the infielder is a $2,700/$2,300 option who hit seven home runs with a .256 ISO in just 92 plate appearances last year.
The Guardians are today’s semi-unexpected cellar dweller, in their matchup against Spencer Turnbull. As has been featured in this space in each of his starts, the righty has an odd ability to keep the ball in the yard over an extended sample, wreaking havoc on the power potential for opposing hitters. Turnbull is neither overly good nor overly reliable, he has a 5.31 xFIP and a 9.00 ERA over his first three starts and 13 innings, and he has struck out just 15.9%, but he has given up just a 1.59% home run rate, one home run to 63 hitters so far, and he had a 1.00% mark in his 50 innings in 2021 and was even better prior to that. Turnbull is not a playable piece in this matchup, the Guardians could easily sequence and run and create runs to chase the starter early, which is what would keep their lineup in play for MLB DFS purposes, but they are something of a thin play tonight. Cleveland’s lineup has mid-range power up and down but few major sluggers, they get by on their ability to put the ball in play and generate runs, but taking the odd long ball out of the equation caps their overall production potential, at least to a degree. Cleveland is a less-than-likely stacking option tonight, but one that is a regular feature across this site and still has plenty of quality. Target-worthy Cleveland bats for sequencing and scoring purposes include Steven Kwan, who is an on-base and balls-in-play machine and a great correlated scoring option; Andres Gimenez, who has a home run and five steals with a 106 WRC+; superstar Jose Ramirez, whose 2.58 in the home run model leads the team today; Josh Naylor and Josh Bell in the heart of the order with a combined three home runs and WRC+ marks of 33 and 88 are struggling but playable when going to this team; while the balance of the lineup is largely filler without Amed Rosario. Will Brennan is an OK option, while Mike Zunino has immense power against any pitcher. Tyler Freeman and Myles Straw are lower-end options on the slate in all respects.
